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Jul 24 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260724 The July 24, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason, provides a comprehensive overview of current agricultural commodities and weather forecasts. Market analyst Dan Basse outlines a bullish, demand-driven outlook for corn and soybeans, citing European droughts, Black Sea conflicts, and expanding US biofuel consumption, while advising producers to utilize marketing tools that maintain upside potential. Following the market analysis, meteorologist Eric Snodgrass details a stark regional divide in crop conditions, noting that severe heat and dryness are heavily stressing the Western Corn Belt while eastern regions fare much better. Snodgrass also cautions that a historic, rapidly intensifying El Niño could lead to a wet, difficult autumn harvest. 01:22 Ag Markets with Dan Basse, AgResource Company 09:41 Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag Solutions --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 24th day of July 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Dan Basse; he is with AgResource Company out of Chicago, Illinois. Mike Zuzolo is away from the office this afternoon. Then we’ll turn our attention to the weather forecast with Eric Snodgrass from Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible. If you can stay with us for the whole hour, you’ll hear all of our commodity week program recorded yesterday afternoon with our panelists Kurt Kimmel, Dave Chatterton, and Greg Johnson. If not, you can hear it online right now at willag.org, and many of these radio stations will carry it over the weekend. announce: Old crop corn finished a quarter higher today. New crop December and March both unchanged, 487 and a half and 503 respectively. September beans up 9 and a quarter at 1240 and a quarter. November 1253 and a half, 9 and three quarters higher for the day. Wheat futures in the December down 18 and a quarter at 695 and a half. A hook down there in the charts. December at 761 and a half for Kansas City, down 14 and a quarter. 01:22 Ag Markets with Dan Basse, AgResource Company Todd Gleason: Dan Basse now joins us. He’s with AgResource Company out of Chicago, Illinois. It’s been a while since we’ve spoken, Dan. Thanks for being with me today. Dan Basse: You’re very welcome. It’s always good to talk about the markets. There is so much going on, Todd. Todd Gleason: This market is always interesting. This one is kind of a fun one either to chase, follow, or try to be ahead of, which I know you try to do. What have you been thinking about the marketplace? Dan Basse: We started to grow these little nubbings on the top of our heads called horns. We haven’t had any for about three years. They still have their velvet on them, but I’m becoming more and more confident in them. As we look at things like the European drought—which I saw firsthand a few weeks ago in France and Italy, and it is bad—the Black Sea situation with heightened military action against grain port infrastructure and vessels, and the United States and China still cozying up to themselves even after raising tariffs another 2% overnight. They are still talking at a very high level and looking forward to a meeting on the 24th of September. If you throw in the mix a less-than-ideal July weather forecast, we end up with a market that will probably head higher over time, alongside a super El Nino hanging out there. I’m not sure what that means yet, but we’ll watch it very carefully into the autumn. Todd Gleason: What does this week’s trade tell you about the marketplace? Anything in particular? Dan Basse: We scored new contract highs in the soybean market relative to November beans. We did the same in wheat. It is highly unusual at this time of year. When I look back at the times we’ve scored new July highs, it usually means the trend persists, at least into the first quarter of next year. We think we have some bullishness that will last, and breaks will be well supported. I need to get beyond the August crop report to get finality on acreage numbers. There is a little concern looking at RMA data that maybe we could find a few extra acres for both corn and beans, but it ultimately comes down to a yield question. The on-again, off-again war in the Middle East is causing fertilizer difficulties. Brazil has not laid down the supply they need for the upcoming crop, and I think they are running out of time. Globally, world wheat production among major exporters is down about 50 million metric tons, an exact reversal of last year. Corn, due to the EU and maybe the US, is also coming down. Soybeans in China have lifted that market. Todd, I’m thinking about a demand-led market, but first I need to understand the size of the US crop before I can really strap in and take out new highs again in corn. Todd Gleason: I see. I was going to ask whether this was demand-led and where from, but you really think there is enough demand to move this market higher? Dan Basse: Yes, I think it’s a demand-led market. I always say that because I believe the EU will become the world’s largest corn importer. They will take significant amounts of US corn as they drop their adversity towards GM corn, though not all countries have since 2022. As we stand back from it, I have the EU taking 27 to 29 million metric tons of global corn, putting them ahead of Mexico. That means both countries will take a billion bushels each from the world market. Along with a 43% expansion in US biofuel consumption for green diesel and falling world wheat exporter supplies, this starts to get the engines going. I don’t expect the US to be a significant wheat exporter unless the Black Sea attacks on grain continue. However, I do think corn and soybeans will be well along the way. I’m not including much in terms of US corn to China—only 5 million metric tons—but it’s enough to twist and turn and provide strong demand. We are going to use another 16 billion bushels, and I have US corn ending stocks at about 1.4 billion bushels. Todd Gleason: Do you think soybeans will give up their lead in the marketplace? They are still higher today, while everything else turned neutral to lower for the day. Might corn actually take that position and lead things higher? Dan Basse: I believe it has been soybeans, soybean oil, and crush margins leading. Off their highs, they are still at a very fancy $3.40 a bushel. I need to finish my earlier point: because we had this problem with 11 million metric tons of wheat—nearly 300 million bushels—resulting in the lowest US wheat crop since the early 70s, I need farmers to plant more wheat. It starts with planting more wheat and the market buying those acres. You see Kansas City July futures getting near $8 a bushel. If I buy more wheat, I need more corn and bean acres next year. Soybeans are just for the expansion in renewable volume obligations and China continuing to buy 25 million metric tons. If I do that, I don’t have enough acres for corn because we are adding requirements in the Conservation Reserve Program, getting closer to that 27 million acre ceiling. Putting it all together, the market is not only looking at this year but trying to understand what price will buy the acres next year, particularly with fertilizer and chemicals costing farmers a lot of money. Todd Gleason: Given all of that, you’ve talked a lot about the 2027 harvest and acreage. What does that really mean for the harvest coming this fall, and what should producers be thinking regarding the need for acres, corn, and soybeans, despite dealing with much lower prices? Dan Basse: That June break solidified the bearishness prevailing across the central US. I admit that when China added a $17 billion pro-rated stimulus, it turned our heads and got us a little bullish, but we didn’t buy that until the end of the month, past the June seeding and stocks report. That being said, I think farmers need to change their marketing programs or thought processes to some degree. For the last three years, we’ve been managing downside risk and using rallies for sales, which was the correct mentality. Now, I’m thinking about how we open up our upside potential to maximize revenue in a year like this. Call options, selling puts to buy calls, or futures are the tools you can use. I wouldn’t necessarily be chasing the market right here, but if we get a break—like after the August crop report or before harvest—that would provide the opportunity. Farmers need to leave their upside open. Our work shows there’s a chance of corn getting up to $6 later this year or early next year. Our average cash price for the farm gate is $5.95 a bushel. There is upside in the market, and I don’t think December corn futures can drop much below $4.60 or $4.70 going forward. That’s what farmers need to be thinking about in this special year where, for the next 12 to 18 months, we could see markets move higher and provide longer-term sales opportunities. Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, Dan. I appreciate it. Dan Basse: You’re welcome. Todd Gleason: That’s Dan Basse. He is with AgResource Company. 09:41 Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag Solutions Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention now to the global growing regions and the weather across the planet. We’re joined by Eric Snodgrass. He is with Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible. It’s been nearly a month since we talked, just because Fridays lined up the way they did for July 4th and I was traveling. I wasn’t able to get a hold of you because of what I was up to. I’m really interested in what you think about looking back first at the last three weeks or so and what has taken place, particularly across the growing regions in the Corn Belt here in the United States. Eric Snodgrass: I think the biggest interest is going to be in the Western Corn Belt, honestly, because during this entire last month, we have seen rapid drying across parts of South Dakota, western Iowa, North Dakota, and even sections of Minnesota. We had the huge wildfires up in Ontario, just north of Minnesota. A lot of that smoke went east, keeping things a bit cooler farther east, but it got very hot in the Western Corn Belt. We had a lot of dry places there that are now over the critical threshold of 140 stress degree days accumulated on the season. Given the dry forecast in the west, plus the returning heat this weekend, it could be smoking hot—105 to 108 degrees. It will be very dry, continuing to put a lot of stress on the crop. Now, here in Illinois, we’ve had this beautiful week. Have you slept with the windows open, Todd, this week? Todd Gleason: Absolutely. Eric Snodgrass: It’s a nice cool-down. We have some scattered showers in the area today, and overall, this has been a week where we’ve taken some of the stress off. But it comes back to something we talked about earlier in the season: it seemed as though the Mississippi River would divide things this year. We’ve certainly seen the Western Corn Belt, especially the far western areas, take more punishment from the atmosphere than the Eastern Corn Belt. As we talked about just before we went on air, there is concern going forward of returning heat. We’ll see that this week into next week, bringing humidity with it. That means there will be pop-up thunderstorms, but they won’t distribute rainfall equitably. The question is how long that heat will last. Todd Gleason: I do have a question about some of your comments. If we divide this east and west along the Mississippi River, eastern Iowa—and almost all of Iowa—is in unbelievable shape right now. Eric Snodgrass: They are. We need to include Iowa. For this year, you’re on the better side of the Mississippi. It’s really good across Iowa. It isn’t until you get to Sioux Falls and start heading west that the issues begin. Last week, I drove from Sioux Falls to Pierre. The corn was standing straight up because it was 100 degrees outside. I got into Pierre that night at about 10:00 PM; it was still 93 degrees. I got up early the next morning to do some work and looked at my hotel room window. Normally, overnight, corn leaves relax and open up. Not this crop; it was still standing straight up when I got up the next morning. We’ve really hit that crop with dryness and major heat during the daytime, while keeping overnight lows quite warm. The killer is that the crop looks green. When you look at it via satellite or drive down the road, it looks green, and the satellite data looks high for South Dakota. Yet, I talked to two growers from there yesterday who said it looks okay, but it took too much heat during pollination, which is going to be a problem. Todd Gleason: Have they made counts? Can they really tell if the ears are far enough along? I suspect not yet. Eric Snodgrass: No, they’re not, so we’ll have to wait and see. The next two weeks will make a big difference. Todd Gleason: What do you see for them over that two-week period? I know you’ve told us it’s hot. Any rainfall at all? Eric Snodgrass: The hope is that you get some ridge-riding storms going through that area. Every day you wake up, you’ll get a different story from the models. As I’ve told you before, Todd, it always bothers me to no end, but that’s how it works. Summer is our least predictable time of year. There’s no flow in the atmosphere; we’re just waiting to see where the subtle boundaries that kick off thunderstorms will be, and we can’t predict those more than 12 to 24 hours in advance. We’re just waiting to see how things go as the season progresses. Looking at most models, they’re on the drier side of average for the next couple of weeks. They bring in serious heat starting this weekend, moving from west to east. We will likely get more of a break from the heat the farther east you go, while the west maintains it. The big question for August is: will we get rain on these beans, and will the temperatures back off? There is a sliver of hope for better rains and less volatile temperatures based on some shifting factors, which I believe are anchored to the continually and rapidly developing El Nino. That will become a bigger factor further into August and beyond. Todd Gleason: How confident might you be? Eric Snodgrass: None. Like, zero confidence. Todd, here’s the problem: when you have such weak flow out of the west, there’s no strong signal to tell you about timing or how moisture can recover. You wait daily just to see if anything shifted. I would love nothing more than for a massive hurricane to show up, a big jump in the trade winds, or just something to happen over Russia or Alaska to kick this flow into gear. But it is so slow that determining when and where things will take shape is just not there. Any meteorologist who says they have the August forecast nailed down is lying through their teeth. We cannot predict flow patterns like this; it’s very, very hard. Todd Gleason: Tell me about El Nino just a bit, and why it’s sometimes called a super El Nino at this point. Eric Snodgrass: It’s the fastest this year, 2026, across the equatorial Pacific. It’s the fastest we’ve ever watched the atmosphere and ocean change over to El Nino state. Specifically in the ocean, temperatures in the middle of the equatorial Pacific are nearly two and a half degrees Celsius above normal. Remember, El Nino is named in reference to Jesus because its peak typically occurs around Christmas. We are six months from Christmas Eve right now, so there’s a long time for this El Nino to continue growing. It has already reached what we would call strong El Nino territory. If it warms just another half a degree, which it easily will, it will be the new historic, strongest El Nino we’ve ever observed, and it still has six more months to ripen and develop. That will be a big issue come fall. The biggest thing we’ll discuss, Todd, is that El Nino tilts the odds in favor of wetter fall conditions across the Corn Belt. This means tighter fall harvest windows and tighter fieldwork windows. But again, my crystal ball has cataracts, and I’m basing much of this on what I see with El Nino. This El Nino is in its own special category. Todd Gleason: Oh boy. I hurt at the moment for the guys out west if they have a bad corn crop and then have to go in and mud it out. That would be terrible. Eric Snodgrass: Yeah, that’s why I don’t disclose my location. I don’t want anybody to know where I am! It can be pretty terrible news, Todd. Another thing to think about: I would like to know what disease pressure looks like across Illinois. We had a very wet June, and leaf wetness hours are high, so that could be another lingering factor. Have you heard every morning when the sun rises? I hear the crop dusters flying early. I think they’ll be working overtime at the end of this month. Todd Gleason: Well, I can give you an update on what things look like. One moment, let me pull up the Crop Protection Network Crop Scout interactive map from plant pathologists across the Midwest. Let’s start with tar spot. The answer is it hasn’t changed in the last week. Same as it was. Southern rust showed up last week in three counties in Iowa, but that’s it. It’s down on the Indiana, Illinois, and Kentucky border as well. Eric Snodgrass: I could argue, Todd, we’re about three weeks delayed in certain things this year, and I wonder if these next three weeks will bring a lot of changes to those maps. Todd Gleason: We’ll see. Thank you very much, we’ll talk to you soon enough. Eric Snodgrass: Yep, you bet. Todd Gleason: That’s Eric Snodgrass. He’s with Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible. He joined us on this Friday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online and on-demand at willag.org.