Latest / The Vance Crowe Podcast / ATR H2A Pay Debate, USDA Cuts $1B, EPA Deregulates, China Slaps Tariff on Canadians with @AdamLasch1

Transcript

ATR H2A Pay Debate, USDA Cuts $1B, EPA Deregulates, China Slaps Tariff on Canadians with @AdamLasch1 · The Vance Crowe Podcast

• 0:00
  Unknown: The Ag Tribes Report is brought to you by Legacy Interviews, a video service that captures people as they really are so the future knows who they really were. Here is Legacy Interviews guest, Carol Hensley, discussing the opportunity for a quiet person to speak their mind.
• 0:17
  Unknown: How was it for you, the experience? Very comfortable. Tried to sit down every morning for a week or two and
• 0:25
  reflect
• 0:25
  on my life. And I'm recalling well over seventy years. I may not talk very much, but I think a lot, and I listen to other people. If they don't talk a lot, they're surely thinking. And if you ask them their opinion, they may share it with you. You'll ask for my opinion.
• 0:41
  I don't mind sharing that. I think I probably talked more than I should have. No. Not at all.
• 0:50
  Unknown: Welcome to the Agtribe's Report, a breakdown of the top stories affecting the the culture of agriculture
• 0:56
  with your host, Vance Crowe.
• 0:58
  The report begins in three,
• 1:00
  two,
• 1:02
  one. Let's begin.
• 1:06
  Unknown: Welcome to the Ag Tribes Report. I'm your host, Vance Crowe. Each week, I bring on a cohost that represents the perspectives of one of the many ag tribes that collectively make up US and Canadian agriculture.
• 1:18
  This week, I have Adam Lash. Adam and his wife, Betsy, founded a diverse dairy and beef operation in 2011
• 1:25
  near Lake Geneva in Southeastern Wisconsin.
• 1:28
  As a first generation farmer, he oversaw hundreds of acres of mostly leased land, and what began as a need for more forage
• 1:35
  drove him to adopt cover crops and conservative practices, revealing the soil health beneath the no till and extended rotations.
• 1:42
  Adam is a most intriguing character on x. I've come to be friends with him. We even spoke on the phone a couple weeks ago, and I am proud to invite him on. Adam,
• 1:51
  Unknown: welcome to the podcast. Thanks a lot, Vance. I'm glad to be here.
• 1:56
  Unknown: So what have you been paying attention to lately? Oh, there's lots of stuff on Twitter.
• 2:00
  Unknown: Lot lot of discussion
• 2:02
  this week, especially. So
• 2:05
  Unknown: Yeah. This has been a wild, wild week. It was actually kinda hard to pick out what we're gonna talk about. We started throwing stories up on Monday, and it has just not stopped. It has been unrelenting, and we got tons of feedback from people about different stories to include.
• 2:19
  So this week, what we're gonna cover is the h two a workers that are beginning to arrive in The US and quite a debate started on x regarding America's willingness to do the work and the pay level that farmers can pay. The USDA
• 2:33
  is is cutting over a billion dollars of money designated to small farms to get local food to schools, and we're gonna talk about the EPA announcing what they say is the largest deregulation
• 2:45
  in the nation's history.
• 2:47
  We'll also talk about China slapping a 100%
• 2:51
  tariff on Canadian canola.
• 2:53
  We'll also explore the Bitcoin land price report, hear Adam's take on the Peter Thiel paradox, and we'll learn about his worthy adversary.
• 3:00
  And we're gonna do that all in just thirty minutes. So let's get started.
• 3:04
  We're gonna kick it off with a story about h two a workers.
• 3:08
  This year,
• 3:09
  they are just about ready to get started. A tweet from Carl Schlegel
• 3:13
  began quite the back and forth. Quote, today is day one of our contractors for our h two a guys. For the twentieth consecutive year, we advertised the job for Americans, and no one applied.
• 3:25
  There is a consistent need for these foreign born workers in agriculture, and there is no domestic workforce.
• 3:31
  It's not about the pay. It's about the work. Now while many people jumped in on this, I thought it was only fair for me to say what I put out there. I wrote, I doubt I don't doubt your experience, but it doesn't compute for me that there is a pay level that,
• 3:45
  that you couldn't get qualified people to do the work. What does the price of this may make the price of food go radically higher, but the h two a guys work for money, not because they love the work. And, a huge back and forth ensued people with
• 3:58
  really wide opinions on, is it that Americans are not prepared for this work? Is it that they're not willing to do it? Is it that farmers can't pay that because the, prices they charge at the store won't be able to be, recoup that cost? So, Adam, I guess I'd turn it over to you. Do you, do you think farmers are,
• 4:17
  Unknown: are right? Or is there anybody in America that would be willing to do this work? Oh, I'm sure there would, but it's if you have to look under the system that we're operating under, it's highly seasonable seasonal work. So you need a lot of lot of people and a short amount of time. And if you don't get the work done timely,
• 4:33
  you're screwed. So I can understand the farmer's
• 4:36
  perspective totally because I can see that we're there. And as margins have gotten cheaper or, thinner,
• 4:43
  it's hard to
• 4:44
  justify keeping the full time guy
• 4:47
  most of the year to only need them, you know, say, six or eight weeks in the spring and six or eight weeks in the fall. So I I get that that time crunch, but that actually is more of an indictment on ag in general, I think, that it's easier to bring guys in from overseas
• 5:00
  than it is to hire local people. And part of that demographic, I mean, we're there. So
• 5:06
  Unknown: Yeah. I mean, one of the things that used to happen in The United States was that we used to have an actual migrant population. I've had people come in and and talk about their apple farms in Michigan,
• 5:16
  and they those people would swap out and go do grain farming across the Northern Plains. After they got done with apple harvest, they'd keep moving west, go to California, and there's basically, like, a large circuit that would happen. And over time,
• 5:29
  that, stopped happening, and people have had all different kinds of reasons.
• 5:33
  Pay was a big part of this conversation.
• 5:36
  Do you think it's that,
• 5:38
  farmers cannot pay American workers enough to be able to get them to go out there and do that brutally difficult work? So I know that there's some serious,
• 5:47
  Unknown: issues with as far as how to bring the HOA workers in, you have to provide them with housing that has to be up to a certain standard, and then there's a minimum wage that they have to get paid. It it is not a cheap program at all. So is it easier to go that route for the farmer because the workers are more tailored
• 6:05
  to the work that you're doing
• 6:07
  rather than trying to train somebody? Because, I mean, a lot of the HOA workers are South Africans.
• 6:13
  There's a lot of issues there. I'm
• 6:15
  it's a tough tough deal. Because if you paid a guy enough,
• 6:19
  you could find the help, you would think. But then your margins are shot. So I I can see both sides. It's a
• 6:24
  tough deal.
• 6:26
  Unknown: Yeah. I mean and it seems to me, like, when people made a great point that, if you're sending your money home, whether you're from South Africa or you're Mexico,
• 6:35
  you you're able to really,
• 6:38
  have a have a dollar that's valued much higher than the, than the other currencies. And so you're sending money home and maybe five years worth of work here in The United States is worth some people said it was 18 times as much. And I don't know if they were just being hyperbolic, but it's really hard for an American worker to compete with that when when the standard of living, what you're able to purchase back home with that money is so much higher. Well, and think about it. We the dollar touched what? A buck $1.00 9 here on the Dixie,
• 7:05
  Unknown: a few months, a week a few weeks ago or whatever, and now it's down to $1.00 3. So, yeah, think about the the currency exchange rate there.
• 7:12
  It's pretty wild.
• 7:14
  Unknown: Yeah. I think the conversation was good because this is something we need to talk about. I personally believe that the biggest challenge to being able to keep American workers going on, ag land is that inflation just keeps going. The value of what you can buy within The United States with the wages that people are earning just keeps going down and down and down. And And when you compare that to what they could make in their home country and until we fix the money, we will not have a stable,
• 7:38
  American,
• 7:40
  Unknown: agricultural migrant workforce. When you have the world reserve currency, your number one export is dollars. I mean, that's just the way it is.
• 7:48
  Unknown: On to headline number two, the USDA cuts more than $1,000,000,000
• 7:54
  in purchasing for local food. This week, the USDA slashed two major programs cutting over $1,000,000,000
• 8:00
  in annual funding. The local food for school program worth over 660,000,000,
• 8:05
  helps schools and childcare centers by buying fresh local food for kids. That's now gone. And the local food
• 8:13
  purchase assistance program, a $500,000,000,
• 8:16
  program supported food banks in underserved areas.
• 8:20
  The cuts confirmed on Tuesday
• 8:22
  followed a sixty day wind down with no new funding for twenty twenty five. The USDA says these Biden area initiatives
• 8:29
  don't fit agency goals under the Trump administration's
• 8:32
  push to trim the federal spending. I had a chance to speak with, Steve Strachheim, who we had on the show, a few weeks ago. And he said he had looked into doing the program, but the money was allocated in October long after his crops had been grown. And he felt like the program,
• 8:47
  wasn't thought through enough. There were a lot of details that just were too shaky for him to get into. And he also said there was,
• 8:54
  that while this really worked for a lot of,
• 8:57
  direct to consumer farmers so they were able to now sell vegetables and meat directly to schools,
• 9:03
  those schools,
• 9:05
  bought a bunch of equipment. And now that because they weren't, serving fresh vegetables before, so they've made investments.
• 9:12
  Farmers that were relying on this money made investments, that's all gone, and people complain about that. But at the same time, they've gotta make cuts somewhere, and it it didn't fit the initiatives.
• 9:23
  Unknown: Adam, is The US doing the right thing? Is, are they cutting out waste and fraud, by cutting these programs, or are kids gonna go hungry? I'm not so sure it's waste and fraud or just poor allocation and malinvestment. So there was a lot of issues with that program, a lot of stipulations. So Steve is right on that. I actually listened to a webinar about it. And,
• 9:43
  it was started in,
• 9:45
  like December and March of twenty twenty two. So right after the pandemic. So it was a a response to the pandemic's breakdown in supply chains. So we don't really have those as much anymore. And then some of the issues with,
• 9:59
  the the machines and stuff being bought, it stipulated in there that the only thing they could buy was minimally processed food
• 10:07
  and or, from underserved and,
• 10:10
  underserved producers or the type of deal. So it,
• 10:15
  it was all
• 10:16
  there was a lot of administration things too. It it it was a convoluted program that served its purpose, I think, and should be good done away with going forward.
• 10:25
  Unknown: Yeah. I mean, it's an interesting thing because,
• 10:29
  I really expected the USDA for as much as they could cut within not only these programs but SNAP programs.
• 10:36
  I thought, man, this is close to the third rail because the other side is gonna be able to point at you and say, look at all the waste and stuff that's out there, and you're choosing to,
• 10:45
  do programs that are helping out the hungry and helping out kids, why these programs of all? But, you know, it's, it's one of those things where when Steve was talking about it, there was definitely a middleman there. They were asking him to drive.
• 10:59
  I I think he said something like 75 miles in order to be able to deliver. So it wasn't super local.
• 11:05
  It seems like they're doing the hard work of making cuts that are gonna be pretty uncomfortable and maybe kind of unpalatable to the rest of the society.
• 11:14
  Unknown: It it there was a lot of convoluted. They they define local as within 400 miles. And across state lines, you could
• 11:21
  there were certain jurisdictions. Like, if if you were within the state and it was over 400 miles, they would eliminate that. But then how the program got administered,
• 11:30
  there it was up to the state. So they would put a block of money in a state and then they actually had, stipulations on if two or more entities wanted to administer within the state, they had to work together. So there was just a lot of bureaucratic
• 11:42
  back and forth, and it it was not an efficient way to administer a program, I would think. And the question I have is what's stopping schools from buying local now?
• 11:54
  Unknown: Yeah. I mean, I think one of the biggest things is they are not set up to do any kind of cooking. The labor that they have in there, the equipment they have in there, they are really just doing reheated of highly processed foods. Yeah. And so I don't think anybody's against helping kids, get more healthy, more minimally processed foods.
• 12:12
  But how it gets done is gonna be difficult. And, in an era where we're trying to cut down waste and it's hard to find labor, I think this is gonna be a hard knot to untie. There's a lot of inefficiencies in our food system.
• 12:25
  Paul Anderson says that the reason that there is not the, American workforce is because,
• 12:31
  the problem is modern feminism. Employees wanna get work life balance, and guys start to work, and they get a girlfriend or wife and kids. And the wife has a happy hairdresser friends with a husband,
• 12:41
  that wants a forty hour a week job. So thanks, Paul, for that. That's definitely some kind of a perspective on it. I mean, I I definitely can,
• 12:49
  empathize with the fact that there is modern culture does say forty hours a week, dad is home helping with the kids, mom's there, and that is just not feasible in a migrant worker, situation. Right. Alright. Let's keep heading on to headline number three. The EPA rolls back more than 31
• 13:07
  environmental rules.
• 13:09
  So far, we don't really know a lot about what the EPA is rolling back, but it looks like truck manufacturing,
• 13:16
  isn't going to have the same EPA regulations. I know that I personally deal with a stupid EcoBoost that's ruining the transmission and turbos on my truck and, waters of The US may be rolled back. We don't have a ton of details, but the EPA in the most boring announcement ever on the what I think is perhaps the most exciting topic ever, which is deregulation so people can get work done.
• 13:40
  Not a lot of details, but they're rolling things back. Adam, are you afraid of rolling back environmental regulations?
• 13:46
  Unknown: No. Not at all. Let's let's inject some sanity back into this. If I I know a big, play on the farmers thing. I don't have any tractors that run on DEF, but DEF seems to be, for emissions, one of the big things are the the, catalytic,
• 14:00
  burn, you know, EGR valves and stuff on on all of that. So, yes, I
• 14:06
  you got expensive equipment sitting in a field because it has to run through its little, cycle. I can see a lot of frustration there.
• 14:14
  Unknown: Yeah. I just recently, on my truck, figured out that you could shut off this, automatic turn off thing. So you'd pull up to a stoplight and the truck would literally turn off. And then when it would turn back on, you know, then it's, like, jumping into first and it it's, like, it's terrible for the transmission. And this was all supposed to be done for the, you know, the environmental. But, like, it can't possibly be more healthy for the environment if you have to throw away a transmission after five years of using the truck. Or overdo a starter a few times. I mean, I just I some of the stuff makes no sense. So, yes, let's let's let's get to the basics of what actually is necessary.
• 14:49
  It'll be fascinating to see what happens with the EPA and pesticide regulations. I did see some people out there talking about how they wanted to see a clear path to pesticide regulation.
• 14:59
  Now there is almost no new pesticides coming to market. And if you can make glyphosate turn into a multibillion dollar
• 15:06
  liability,
• 15:07
  it is unlikely that people are gonna wanna put more crops,
• 15:11
  more crop pesticides out in the world, but we're running out of them. Right? We are we'd like the path to get something deregulated and put into the market is incredibly hard. In fact, when I was at Monsanto then became Bayer, there was a lot of talk that what Bayer was buying
• 15:26
  was not the innovation corridor that Monsanto had built, but instead the regulatory,
• 15:32
  corridor, like their ability to work with the EPA.
• 15:35
  And, that's because it's such a convoluted moat building process.
• 15:38
  Unknown: Well, and I just read that the is that the Europeans approved glyphosate for the next till 2033
• 15:45
  in their regulatory Oh, I didn't see that. In that matter. That,
• 15:49
  Unknown: I I think it'll be around. I don't think they're gonna get rid of it here. If the Europeans are keeping it, I can't imagine us getting rid of it. Well, my belief is that if they're gonna get, the easiest way to attack glyphosate, and RFK is a part of a group of people that are very, very savvy, They are not gonna go after it on the EPA route and maybe not even the USDA route. What I think they're gonna do is say, look. If you have parts per trillion of glyphosate inside of your Wheaties or inside of your Cheerios,
• 16:16
  then you're not allowed to sell these in an American grocery store or you're not allowed to package them. And that would make it so nobody north of the Mason Dixon line is gonna be able to grow glyphosate because or no not gonna be able to grow wheat because they use so much of it for, burn down. You won't be able to use any corn,
• 16:31
  Unknown: soy, and it'll effectively ban it if people wanna have food grade products, sold into the commodity market. Yeah. That would upend egg in a real interesting way and not necessarily in a good way. I don't know. I that's a tough that's a tough one. I'm I would
• 16:46
  wanna
• 16:48
  I would wait.
• 16:49
  Unknown: Yeah. I don't think I don't think it's right on the docket right now. It seems like they're doing stuff with,
• 16:54
  with food dyes that I think, you know, everybody's a little bit like, hey. I mean, I don't need food dyes in my food. Let's let's, clean them out as best we can.
• 17:02
  Alright. Finally,
• 17:04
  headline number four.
• 17:06
  China puts a 100%
• 17:08
  tariff on Canadian canola oil.
• 17:11
  China recently imposed significant tariffs on Canadian canola products, escalating trade tensions between the two countries. On March 20, China will implement a 100%
• 17:21
  tariff on Canadian canola and canola meal as well as peas alongside a 25%
• 17:26
  tariff on pork and aquatic products.
• 17:29
  This move is in retaliatory
• 17:32
  response to Canada's earlier decision in August of twenty four to place a 100 tariff on Chinese electric vehicles and a 25%
• 17:40
  tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum.
• 17:43
  For Canadian canola farmers, this is a major blow. China is Canada's Second largest market for canola after The US
• 17:51
  and, with exports,
• 17:52
  being nearly $5,000,000,000
• 17:54
  annually.
• 17:56
  So, this is an interesting time for Canada because they are in already embroiled in a really pretty vicious trade war with The United States wondering what's gonna go on with tariffs,
• 18:07
  and it seems like the floor just dropped out for canola farmers.
• 18:11
  Adam, what do you know about this, and what do you think,
• 18:15
  Canada's chances are of navigating this incredible,
• 18:18
  Unknown: tariff war with multiple countries? Not to pick on our our, neighbors to the north, but, man, they seem to be playing a lot of geopolitical
• 18:25
  games poorly this lately,
• 18:27
  this last several years. I mean, there was that that incident with the Huawei CEO where they locked her up,
• 18:34
  for a while. I wonder if this isn't China trying to just flex a little muscle on, on Canada and inject some uncertainty and some pain into a few spots to try and leverage some of their, geopolitical heft. I don't know.
• 18:48
  They're gonna play the game.
• 18:50
  Unknown: Yeah. To me, this is, China having played very smartly by waiting until Canada was incredibly vulnerable and then poking them back. You know, in a lot of ways, I think, the Huawei,
• 19:02
  guy that was, held up by Canadians,
• 19:04
  I think this was largely at the behest of The United States. I think they were doing things that The United States wanted, and,
• 19:11
  Canada is, now stuck in the middle. And if China's playing the game really well, they're figuring out, hey. If if, your enemy is is up a creek, you know, irritate and make it worse. And and, that is exactly what they're doing. Well, and Canada seems politically weak right now. They just I mean, they're a confederation
• 19:29
  Unknown: of states, and and I'm probably gonna catch some heck for this. But they they really shouldn't even be a country if you look at the way they they interact with each other. You know, more of the stuff comes out of Alberta and and Saskatchewan comes to us than goes to other parts of Canada. So when you're a resource rich country that it depends on exports,
• 19:49
  Unknown: Yeah. I mean, I I think I disagree with you. I think Canada is a full country. They probably need to break free from,
• 19:56
  The United States. If they wanna be a full country, they really need to break free of United States control. So I'm in agreement with you. You know, one time I was out in Lloydminster at a special ag conference,
• 20:05
  and, the the leaders from both Saskatchewan and Alberta told me that when they were building the train lines in Canada, they basically told the West, hey. We will build you these train lines. We're gonna get them all set up for you. But when we do that, you are gonna have to ship all of your raw materials to us. You're not allowed to have mills out here. And if you build a mill out here, then we are gonna take away your train lines. And it really has,
• 20:29
  it's really kept to the West,
• 20:32
  totally beholden to the East. And I I think that when we see these people booing The US national anthem and we see Canada, you know, pushing back on this, I think that's a lot more in the East than it is in the West. I personally have heard people at an at a cattle conference in Canada cheer when the idea of the fifty first state was proposed. So I think there is not all that meets the eye there. Well, I mean, they have tariffs between their provinces
• 20:57
  Unknown: on certain products. So, I mean, that would be like us charging Illinois for beer or something like that and putting a tariff at the border. That, you know, that doesn't make you a cohesive area. You know, that doesn't help foster brotherly love. You know?
• 21:09
  Unknown: Yeah. And I think that the West has seen how much, places like Quebec have been able to,
• 21:15
  extort from other provinces and been able to make themselves strong while, weakening the other provinces. So I do not think Canada's political problems are anywhere close to over. No.
• 21:26
  Alright. That is gonna do it for the headlines this week. If you have any headlines you think we should cover, you can always send them to me on x. I love getting those. They started rolling in on Wednesday, and I was overwhelmed. So if I didn't get back to you, I'm sorry. I read all of them and try and get them in. You can also send them to me at Vance at Legacy
• 21:44
  Interviews.
• 21:45
  Alright. Now on to the Bitcoin land price report.
• 21:49
  Whoo. We are having a Bitcoin sale.
• 21:52
  Last week, Bitcoin was at $89,295.
• 21:55
  And today, we are sitting at a cool, cool 80,800,
• 22:00
  which is down 10%
• 22:02
  from last week. So, Adam,
• 22:05
  how much is an acre of high quality farm ground in your county? About $11.05. 11 thousand 5 hundred bucks an acre. Alright. So if we put that up against an 80,000,
• 22:17
  dollar Bitcoin, that means that you,
• 22:19
  point one four four Bitcoin would get you an acre of land. This is just outside of Lake Geneva?
• 22:26
  Unknown: Yeah. And if it's farm ground, you know,
• 22:28
  Unknown: big chunks. And so 1 Bitcoin right now would buy you seven acres of, of land up there. How does that sit with you?
• 22:37
  Unknown: Would you trade the Bitcoin or have the land? Which one would you rather have? I don't know. I mean, at 80,000, is it gonna go to 50, or is it gonna go to a hundred? I don't know. You know?
• 22:45
  Unknown: Are you a Bitcoiner?
• 22:47
  Unknown: I am I am a Bitcoin
• 22:49
  skeptic,
• 22:50
  I would say.
• 22:52
  Tell me more. So I I've seen charts and stuff of the,
• 22:57
  Bitcoin price to the Nasdaq, and it's basically a function of,
• 23:01
  liquidity. And when when,
• 23:04
  liquidity got pumped into the global economy, it had to find somewhere to go, and some enterprising guys came up with Bitcoin.
• 23:10
  I'm
• 23:11
  okay with the store value aspect of it, but I don't know how it becomes a,
• 23:16
  unit of account
• 23:18
  and, trade.
• 23:20
  What do you mean a unit of account and trade? What Well What do you what's For it to be a real currency, it needs to be used. It has to be used, and nobody can care about the value. And right now, everybody cares about the value, but nobody cares about using it. It's a buy and hold.
• 23:32
  You know? So how do you so, basically, it is applicable to gold,
• 23:36
  digital gold.
• 23:38
  I'm also not wild about the whole Michael Sailor MSTR
• 23:42
  buying issuing shares, turning around buying Bitcoin, and raising the price of Bitcoin to buy more shares to issue more shares. I think that's an infinite money loop. I don't I don't know about that one either.
• 23:52
  Unknown: Yeah. I don't really understand the game that he's playing. I think that, Bitcoin is quite a bit bigger than MSTR, but I'm I'm, you know, I'm interested in what he's doing out there. I think, one thing somebody was talking with me today,
• 24:05
  and they were saying, I just don't understand why is Bitcoin so volatile. And I would say to your point, Bitcoin is so volatile because it is so liquid. You know, if you are watching the stock market go down, you gotta cover some shorts. You gotta cover a position. You gotta wait for your bank to open up between the hours of 9AM to, you know, 4PM. You can only sell stocks between 9AM and 3PM.
• 24:27
  Yeah. You know, you can't sell your house very quickly. But if you need money right now, you can liquidate Bitcoin 20 4 hours a day, seven days a week. And so it is always gonna be the first place
• 24:37
  where people demanding liquidity are gonna grab it out, and that's gonna make the price go up and down. And for long termers, this is great. Right? To me, Bitcoin is just on sale right now, and I'm loving it. Yeah. I'm long cattle, so I'm gonna stick with our friend Jared McDaniel there, and I'm gonna be long cattle and, walk walk it, you know, off the farm
• 24:56
  right now. Well, if you are interested in purchasing Bitcoin,
• 25:01
  I recommend River, who's been a great sponsor of the show. I will include,
• 25:05
  a link to River in my show notes. And, if you buy there, we will both benefit. You will be helping the show out, and, and I think you'll get a little bit of Bitcoin too. They're a great place to work,
• 25:16
  with, and, they also have lightning wallets. And if you send me a lightning,
• 25:20
  address,
• 25:21
  I will send you a hundred and 25 satoshis.
• 25:25
  Alright. Now moving on to the Peter Thiel paradox. This is where I'm gonna ask Adam, what is one thing that you believe that almost nobody in your tribe agrees with you on? Oh, wait. Okay. So nobody agrees with me on this. We're gonna go with this.
• 25:38
  Unknown: I think the future model for the for the dairy industry is going to be more family farms. It's going to be a sixty, hundred twenty, two hundred and 40 cows and robots to do the milking. It's gonna be size that goes back to what one family unit can operate
• 25:54
  with maybe some outside help. Because as labor gets short more,
• 25:59
  hard to come by and the markets are where they're at, technology is taking over. And I believe
• 26:04
  that the I would say the era of the large dairies, they've kind of maxed out. They were created with cheap and, cheap
• 26:12
  capital, cheap feed, cheap labor from immigrants,
• 26:15
  and,
• 26:16
  a willingness for to empire build. We don't have that same set of puzzle pieces.
• 26:20
  So
• 26:21
  it,
• 26:22
  we're in this transition period, but I believe down the road, you will go back to a smaller type dairy setup.
• 26:30
  Unknown: I I love what you're saying.
• 26:32
  Unknown: I'm tell me why does it intuitively make sense that it would go back down to smaller rather than just huge but robotic dairies? So there was talk, like, ten years ago. We're only gonna need 9,000,000 milk cows, which is kinda where we're we've stayed around. And that'd be 3,000, three thousand cow dairies. The problem is you look at the environmental impacts and the dairies that have been in our area, we're a big dairy area,
• 26:55
  they've saturated their,
• 26:57
  local zones with manure to the point where now they're going further. Well, all of a sudden we have diseconomies of scale
• 27:03
  because you have to haul more feed, haul more,
• 27:07
  manure out.
• 27:08
  You know? The processing is getting more. So I think you're gonna stay in some sort of a maybe it is a tanker loader, every other day or whatever. But I we've gotten to the point where it it's
• 27:18
  not scaling, like, the way they want it. The the building costs are too high. Everything is getting worse, and we're the the model's gonna have to change.
• 27:28
  Unknown: Yeah. I mean, I I think I love in intuitively hearing about it. And, actually, after having seen some of the gigantic dairies in California
• 27:36
  where you drive for miles, and it is it it it's not just a feedlot. It's a feedlot of Holstein cows, and it it's like,
• 27:44
  I don't know, something between mesmerizing and horrifying, but you're right. There's no possible way they're able to haul that manure off and use it effectively in the system. So that's all getting,
• 27:55
  shifted out. So I love what you're saying, and I think you're right. There's not very many people that think that is, is true right now. So I'm gonna give you a, a nine one on this one. I hope you did very well there. Yes.
• 28:07
  Unknown: Thank you.
• 28:08
  Unknown: Alright. Moving on. Now we're gonna talk about,
• 28:12
  Adam's worthy adversary. We do this because it is so good to get out of our little echo chamber bubbles. I know that when I started the worthy adversary list on x,
• 28:22
  I just kinda thought it was like, I'll put them all here. But now that is my go to list because it is filled with people that I, I I hear and encounter ideas that I do not already agree with. So,
• 28:35
  Adam, who comes to mind when I ask you who is one person that you respect
• 28:39
  Unknown: but you disagree with? So I have a guy there's a guy named Kelly Newenhouse on Twitter, and I've not interacted with him much, but he has a fantastic story about how he got started farming. He's got a whole his pinned tweet is all that, and I love that. I really respect him. But he is from
• 28:56
  Iowa and big time on the biofuels,
• 28:59
  ethanol, corn growers association, and I just fundamentally disagree with a lot of that,
• 29:05
  what what the corn growers and such are pushing. I see I understand our trade group. They have to do that, But you start to look around the landscape and you go,
• 29:13
  is it really working? Is it really helping us? I mean, the ag population is just getting older, and we're kinda hollowing out parts of rural America in ways that there's no not much as not as much opportunity.
• 29:24
  So
• 29:25
  can we look around at some point and go, maybe this isn't working instead of just keep pushing harder and harder and harder on SAF and carbon capture and all of those type programs?
• 29:38
  Unknown: I mean, it's good to be asking those and pushing on them. I know that, one of my good friends, Keaton Krueger, who's involved in some of these organization, always says, you can criticize them, but if you show up and you start,
• 29:50
  voicing your opinion,
• 29:51
  they have to respond to what you're saying. And so his pushback on anytime somebody is critical of of corn growers is saying, have you shown up to a meeting? So I guess I would throw that out to you. Have you? I have not, but I'm I'm involved in the dairy side. So
• 30:06
  Unknown: because I agree with that. You have to do something. So stay in involved in the dairy and and, I don't grow that much corn. You know? We're more forage based. So
• 30:15
  Unknown: Well, speaking of the, sustainable aviation flu or,
• 30:19
  fuel, there was a there's a guy on x that goes by Theta Farmer. Well, I'm assuming he's a guy. I don't know. And I would say he is probably my most recent worthy adversary. I I see a lot of his stuff. People interact with it. But, GreenStats
• 30:33
  put out a tweet about the Chuck Grassley
• 30:35
  talking about how, hey. I'm meeting with all these guys that are that are gonna make sure that sustainable aviation
• 30:41
  fuel keeps going out there. And what they're really saying is we're gonna create a mandate that makes it so everybody that flies has to use sustainable aviation fuel. And then, Theta farmer was saying, hey. You may, if you're a corn farmer and you don't support this,
• 30:56
  Unknown: you are making it you're you're you're shooting yourself in the foot, essentially. Because he's saying, you know, we we, the the, prices won't keep up, and and we need that demand. And I fundamentally disagree with that. Right. But I think that Theta farmer has a lot of interesting things to say on other topics. I think guys get locked into their model, and then that's all that they can see. They get tunnel vision. Now and I understand if you're only locked into growing corn and soybeans, you're scared right now because the margins aren't there. And then suddenly, a tariff gets slapped on and you lose a dollar a bushel, and that's big dollars. So I can understand where the fear comes from. I guess I've been
• 31:31
  in the dairy industry, we've been so at the whims of the wind in the markets and, I mean, the PPD thing and and the COVID thing and everything.
• 31:40
  It bring it on. I can I can survive this? We'll figure it out as we go and embrace the volatility. But I can understand if you were really locked in, these situations different. It could be a little scary out there.
• 31:50
  Unknown: Yeah. And I was reminded by a couple of my friends when I was pointing out, man, people seem to really be getting hot on x, and they're like, yeah. Well, I mean, with corn prices where they are, with the volatility, with tariffs coming, you know, somebody might be able to already have their seed paid for. They might already have their equipment, you know, all lined up. But going into the banker and talking with them about an operating line is gonna be tougher with $4 corn and with the, the volatility in the market. So I, I believe that, like, we'll probably see some steam be blown off as probably a good time to to be really gracious in, in talking with people as they have, strong opinions.
• 32:26
  Unknown: I I feel like we're at the end of this model. So if SAF is the only way we're gonna increase corn acres and push that model further, because what do guys do? They grow corn. They try and increase every bushel they can.
• 32:37
  Where does it end? Like, where are we where is the endgame here? And I think that's what a lot of us on Twitter are starting to figure out. It's like, okay. What's the endgame? More SAF and more corn and more
• 32:48
  big farms? Like, what what's the endgame here? Where where are we going?
• 32:53
  Unknown: Yeah. And it it seems like if it can only be propped up by, by making it so other people must pay for your stuff because through their gas, it doesn't seem like something Grain Stats is is pointing out lately. How long do you think the public will support you and say, oh, we've gotta support the farmers if every time they turn around, they're getting taxed on the fuel that they're using in the flights that they have. Well and and,
• 33:15
  Unknown: yeah. Yeah.
• 33:17
  Well, that is gonna do it for tonight's show. Adam, if, people wanted to interact with you, learn more about you, where would you recommend they go? Twitter at Adam Lash one, and you'll find me. I'm, not shy about voicing opinions. And I welcome the the, I welcome the, interaction because there's three tweets you you put out. The one you thought of, the one you wrote down, and the one people read. And there's that's that's what leads to Twitter making Twitter such a good place.
• 33:45
  Unknown: I I agree. I mean and even when you get the tussle, like, the tussle I had about h two a is, like, you learn stuff, you hear stuff you hadn't thought of, your your arguments. At a minimum, your own argument is going to get better because, you're hearing people disagree with you, and that's what makes it a great place to be. Alright. Well, that's gonna do it for the show. If you have been thinking about doing a legacy interview,
• 34:07
  we did just a spectacular
• 34:09
  one with a woman,
• 34:11
  whose memories weren't all that clear. She had to, you know, really reflect today. But her advice for future generations, what she has learned along the way was truly profound. And I have to imagine that her children, grandchildren, and great grandchildren
• 34:27
  will be so much better off because they were able to capture some of that wisdom that I know the people that were, over
• 34:34
  listening in the other room told us, like, that stuff I'd never heard before, and I'm so glad we got it captured. If you're interested in having me sit down with one of your loved ones, go to legacyinterviews.com
• 34:44
  and, hit the contact form. You and I can have a conversation
• 34:47
  about what we wanna capture and how we could do it, and, it's a great experience. Also,
• 34:53
  on the show notes, I'm gonna throw in a link to River where you can buy your Bitcoin. That's gonna do it for the show. Thank you so much, Adam, for coming on. And as always,
• 35:02
  feel free to disagree.