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UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: All systems go.
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: Clear for liftoff. What is going on, everybody? Happy Thursday.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: We are talking some fights. Big Marley and I talking
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: some UFC fight night at the Apex in Vegas. 12
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: fight card. Yeah, it was 11 fights. And then they
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: added Mickey Gall and Cedricas Dumas. And then we just
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: got word like an hour and a half ago. Out
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: is Mickey Gall. In is Luis Hernandez. And yeah, all
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: the memes and all this funny stuff going around. Cedricas Dumas,
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: a convicted felon. Luis Hernandez, a cop. So that's going
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: to be pretty freaking cool is what I got to
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: say to that. I've researched it a little bit. I mean,
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: Luis Hernandez just fought two Tuesdays ago on the contender
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: series and won, got a contract, and now he's making
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: his debut. And I mean, I can only imagine how
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: excited he is, not only because Cedric Dumas is ass,
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: because he is ass, but also he's a convicted felon.
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: The cop probably wants to let him know that he's
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: a piece of shit because unfortunately that is what he is.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: And I'm excited to see that one for sure. But
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: I'd be lying if I loved this card for DFS.
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: 12 fights isn't my favorite. I think there's a couple
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: great fights at Target, plenty of fights that I don't
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: have too much interest in, but always excited to talk
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: some fights with you, Big Marley. How are we doing today? Uh-oh,
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: am I lagging? Are you lagging? I hope someone in
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: chat can let us know.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure which side it is. Hopefully, you hear
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: me fine?
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: I can hear you fine now. We got two people
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: watching live. It could be. No. Is it me? Uh-oh.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I think it's me. I got you now.
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: I got you now.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Can you hear me fine now?
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah. All right, cool, cool.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, man, I did look into this fight a little bit.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: And this Luis Hernandez guy, he's the one that Sean
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Hernandez went stomping into the cage like an old pissed
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: off parent.
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: Sean Strickland. Strickland.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, Sean Strickland when he choked out his teammate.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: But I think this guy's got a better chance than Gall.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: So I think it's a good replacement fight. I would
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: have been pretty upset if we did not have a
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: 12th fight and we still had a one-star fight out
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: of the 11. I think that would have just been
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: a terrible DFS card. So I think Hernandez saved it,
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: DFS was.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: For sure, yeah. So it was Mickey Gallo was minus 140,
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: and Cedricus was plus 120. It was 8,500, 7,700. So
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: out's Gallo. So Dumas keeps the same price tag at 7,700.
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: They only have two options, though, unless they want to
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: put the same salary as someone else. They can go
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: all the way up to 9K, or they can just
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: plug Hernandez in at 8,500. like he was. I don't
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: know exactly what they're going to do. Just refreshing right now,
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: Hernandez opened minus 400 just like 15 minutes ago when
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: I looked. He was minus 200, and now we got
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: a little buyback at minus 225. So the line is
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: still really fresh. We have no props on this fight
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: at all. All I see is under one and a
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: half at minus 205. I mean, that just shows under
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: one and a half minus 205. This is going to
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: be by far the most likely fight to finish on
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: the card. So I do think it's Let me refresh
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: this quick. I know you changed it to a five-star. Yeah,
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: there we go. It's going to be one of the
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: best fights on the card for sure. Is it going
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: to be Hernandez 8,500? If so, that's a phenomenal price tag.
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: We'll be pretty chalky. 9K, he'll be a little less owned,
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: but he could still be 9K, and I'd have a
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: lot of interest. Any other broad slate overview that you
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: want to mention?
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: No, it was hard to go with any five stars
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: because I think the main event was my favorite until
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: this replacement. but even that's not an all in fight.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: So I think this is a card where you can
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: kind of go a lot of different ways.
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: All right. I like to hear that. I, uh, I
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: planned on being all in on the main event. We'll
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: wait till we get there at the end, but yeah,
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: I always like talking through things with you. I sometimes
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: make some changes. So let's start bottom to top. Like
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: always again, this, uh, I believe this will be the
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: second fight. I think, uh, Yasmin will be first. The
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: Hernandez fight will be second. It doesn't matter for DFS.
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: They're all independent to each other, but Let's go bottom
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: to top on the stone like usual. Luis Hernandez minus 225. Again,
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: open minus 400. Cedric is Dumas plus 189. Only prop
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: under one and a half at minus 205. At open
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: minus 108. And then it's taken money since. Again, the
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: fight was just announced two hours ago. So this line
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: still can move a lot. Not as much money has come.
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: The books haven't taken as much money on it. And
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: usually there are limits, especially when lines are just announced.
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: They don't want to take a bloodbath. So it's still
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: pretty inefficient right now. But Hernandez 8-0, five wins by submission,
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: three by knockout. He just looks like an all-action guy.
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: And the fight's the most likely to finish. So I
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: definitely like him. And to be honest, I probably like
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: Dumas more than I did against Gauld now for the
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: simple fact of ownership and because of Hernandez. If Hernandez
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: is 8,500, he's probably going to be top three owned
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: on the card. And then in the most likely fight
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: to finish, I always say this about Dumas. I always
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: play him. because he's a game theory leverage play in
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: a fight expected to finish, but he always sucks. He
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: always loses. Probably going to be the case again. He
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: probably gets stomped. But if Hernandez is 8,500, I have
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: more interest in Dumas than if Hernandez was 9K because
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: of the ownership on Hernandez and the leverage you get
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: from Dumas. So under one and a half, minus 200 plus.
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: If Dumas wins, it's probably going to be a big
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: score at pretty low ownership and leverage. So I like
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: this fight a ton. I'll be playing a lot. It
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: just depends what 9K Hernandez, I still like him a bunch. 8,500 Hernandez,
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: I love him, but I like Dumas more than if
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: Hernandez was 9K because of the ownership. So I hope
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: that makes sense. What are you doing in this one?
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's my favorite fight on the card.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: This or the main event, they're going to definitely be
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: my two favorite fights. With Hernandez taking this fight on
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: two days notice, also never been to a decision, I
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: just think he's going to come out all gas, no
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: brakes in this fight and try to kill Dumas. I
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: think he has the power to knock him out. I
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: also think he has pretty good chokes as well. I
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: would say he's the better wrestler of the two. My
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: worry would be cardio on two days notice, but I
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: think that could help out Dumas. If Hernandez gases, I
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: think Dumas probably puts it on him and finishes Hernandez
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: at some point, and he's going to put up a
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: big score as an underdog, but I would rather take
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: my chances on the favorite getting that first round finish.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: I think Hernandez is is better everywhere. I also like
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: to root against Dumas. So let's go Hernandez first round,
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: brutal knockout.
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: I like it. And I'm really, really excited just to
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: see again, the, the cop versus the felon and all
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: that good stuff. That's going to be that narrative is
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: as good as it gets. So I think it's a
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: great spot for Hernandez in his UFC debut. And I
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: think the UFC is even happier. I mean, if Mickey
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: Gall seven and seven, Mickey Gall is a favorite. against
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: someone in 2026, yeah, I think Luis Hernandez should put
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: it on him and put up a big score. But
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: that being said, again, for tournaments, I probably will be
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: more over to the field to Dumas than Hernandez, unless
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: Hernandez is 9K, because then that'd keep his ownership a
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: little lower, and he still has as much upside as
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: anyone on the slate. All right, let's get to the
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: one-star fight. Not every day you see a minus 925 favorite.
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: As a one-star fight. But she's 9,800. Is Yasmin Uruguay
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: taking on Vanessa Dimopoulos. Plus 635. Plus 160 for this
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: fight to finish. Uruguay plus 175 inside the distance. Vanessa
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: plus 925. The next highest price after Yasmin. Is all
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: the way down to 9,300. In Rinya. Again only 12 fights.
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: I do think there's some live dogs on the card.
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: So I guess she's not the worst worst play. But
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: man 9,800 is a. a pretty tough task. And then
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: you look and she's like, not even favored to finish
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: the fight, only a striker. A lot of things are
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: going against her, but I do expect ownership to be
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: pretty low for that reason. Uh, are you going to
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: play any, uh, Yasmin?
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: No, I'm just going to X this fight out. If
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: I were to play it though, I would rather play
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: or Aggie than Demopolis. Um, I don't know that the,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: the field will be that way or not.
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: I think, I think so.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Just priced out of my lineups. Whereas 6,400 is super
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: cheap and, uh, Demopolis could maybe test Waragi's questionable chin.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: She's also got a solid submission game, so maybe she
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: could grab a neck or get an armbar or something
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: on Waragi. But if Demopolis doesn't get a finish, I
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: just don't really see how she wins this fight. Waragi's
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: probably going to piece her up on the feet. I
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: also think Waragi would be the better wrestler of the
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: two because Demopolis just doesn't wrestle. So I think Waragi
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: can keep this fight standing and And I like her
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: to get a TKO at some point. It's just that 9,800,
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit too much to pay on a
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: card where I really don't care for too many underdogs.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: So I think the only reason to play War Reggie
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: would be because you like more underdogs than me or
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: just to get different at 9,800. I think she will
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: be low on this fight in general should be the
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: lowest on fight on the card. But I think I'm
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: just going to exit out and play it as if
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: there are 11 fights.
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: If I told you Yasmin scored 129 DK points, how
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: much would you have?
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: I would definitely be a lot more interested. I'd have
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: a lot of interest. I'd say more than 30% on
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Yasmin if that was the case.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah. The only reason I mentioned that, in her wins
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: so far in the UFC, one of them scored 129.
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: um if you do think she gets a tko vanessa
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: is hittable she throws a lot of volume like a
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: third round late second round where she just absolutely put
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: it on her vanessa was tough there is pass and
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: she has done it where she scored that much so
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: i'm gonna keep her in the pool for that reason
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: and then cap her but i guess i also probably
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: like dogs a little more than you i'll just quickly
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: go through Hione is a live dog with upside. Bricek,
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: a live dog with upside. This Albeck guy, he's going
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: to wrestle. He stand. If he wins, he's going to score.
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: I think Edwards is live. Simone has upside. So I
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: do think there is enough underdogs personally on the slate
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: where you can fit a Yasmin and the mid tier
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: is really strong. So I'm going to keep her in
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: the pool, but I do agree with Big Marley. I
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: don't love her. And you can build like, yeah, any
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: Yasmin team drop down to Osmanelli, leave 700, just as
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: much upside right there, if not more. You could argue so.
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: I don't like her much, but I think she's going
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: to be 13% owned or something. If that's the case,
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: it's a way to get different. But I agree. I
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: prefer Yasmin to Vanessa. I don't like this fight, though,
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: at all, really. Let's get to another fight I'm not
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: a fan of. John Castaneda, minus 370. Taking on Ella
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: Teng-Hei Lee, plus 298. This is the second most likely
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: to go the distance at minus 275. Both guys, plus
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: 415 inside the distance. I mean, usually when both guys
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: have the same inside the distance prop, give me the $ 2, 200
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: savings in Alitang Hailey. And that is definitely where I'm
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: at in this one. I don't love him. He doesn't
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: do too much. Line movement has gone against him. Castaneda
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: opened minus 200 in this fight and is now minus 370.
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: That's a lot of line movement for sure. I think
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: he wins a decision in this fight bus. But if
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: I had to pick someone, I mean, give me 2,200
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: savings in Alitang Hailey. Maybe he catches him. Maybe he
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: scores 55 in a win, and that's enough at 7K.
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: But I do not like this fight really much at all,
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: and maybe I just full fade it. I'm curious to
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: hear your thoughts if you're going to have any Alitang Haley.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: No, I'm just not really going to play this fight either.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: This is my second least favorite fight on the card.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Alitang Haley just doesn't do anything. I mean, he's got
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: a little bit of power in his punches. He can
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: land a couple takedowns, but he's not throwing any volume,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: and he's not doing enough when he gets his takedowns either.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: He's not also– a guy who can go out there
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: and get you like eight takedowns in 15 minutes, he
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: just doesn't work hard enough. So even at 7K, if
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: somehow he won a decision, I don't even think he
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: would 10X. And if he doesn't get a first round knockout,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know that he buries you if it's a
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: second or a third round because I don't think there
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: will be any other real points leading up to it.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: So I would rather play Castaneda if I were to
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: play this fight because he is the harder worker on
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: the feet, the better wrestler. He'll go for the kill
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: more as well. I just agree that I think he
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: wins the decision. And doesn't even 10X a $ 9, 200 price tag.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: I would imagine he scores around 75, 80 points and
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: is just not going to cut it. So I want
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: to avoid those last two fights we talked about. And then,
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, if I was MMAing, I would get a
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: little bit of Castaneda. But even MMA, I'm really not
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: too interested in this fight. I even thought about going
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: one star. And I'll just avoid these last two fights.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: I like all the others, though.
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: I know mute donkey for sure. I was looking at something.
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: I agree. I think we just talked about two of
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: the worst fights on the card back to back. So
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: I'll be hoping it's not optimal for either of them. Again,
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: appreciate everyone hanging out. All we ask is the like
• 13:22
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• 13:25
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  Speaker 2: want to check out all of our packages. Top back
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: over to the stone. Again, all of our content is
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: posted on Friday. And any updates needed, I let everyone
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: know in Discord and it's updated on the site. Actually,
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: I was going to say another women's fight, but there
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: was a break in between the Yasmin fight to this one.
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: But Aileen Perez taking on Norma Dumont. Perez minus 146.
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: Dumont plus 125. Plus 325 for this fight to finish.
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: Both girls plus 550 inside the distance. Some line movement
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: in this one. Aileen Perez was open minus 200. Two
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: minutes later was minus 115. And then from there, she's
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: taken a little money since then. I'm really curious to
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: hear your take on this because Aileen Perez, I mean,
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: the takedowns show it on the stone. 4.9 takedowns per 15.
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: She always has that kind of upside. Dumont, though, you
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: have the same amount of stars, and this is a
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: four-star fight. So I'm all ears. I want to hear
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: how you think it goes. Yeah, what you plan on
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: doing for DFS?
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: See, I like the fight, both sides of it. I
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: always like Perez in DFS just because she is a
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: high-paced wrestler. She is someone who can go out there
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: and get you six to eight takedowns. rack up 10
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: plus minutes of control time, also be active with ground
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: strikes too. So I like the ceiling of Perez. I
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: think she could score 110 plus points at 8,300 and
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: kind of break the slate. So I do lean her
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: as my preferred play, but on a card where I
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: don't care for too many underdogs, I'm also fine just
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: going down to Dumont in the ones where I can't
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: afford Perez or where I don't have Perez. I think
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: Dumont's the better striker. I think she's got more knockout power.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: I think she would have higher volume. I also think
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: if Dumont beats Perez to the takedown, she could be
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: fine and top control herself and rack up a couple takedowns,
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: quite a bit of ground strikes, some ground control time.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: And I also give Dumont the cardio edge as well.
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: If Perez wrestles early, starts to gas out, I think
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: Dumont could pick it up and win a decision or
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: maybe finish late. But I just think as a mid-range fight,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: and Dumont probably won't get too much ownership, I think
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: I'm fine with both sides of it where I'd be
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: targeting Perez, but kind of falling back on Dumont.
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: So let me ask you this, though. Mid-range, in my opinion,
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: is loaded. Vieira, Bricek, which fight do you like more?
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: I'd say they're... I'd say they're really close. I don't
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: really have too much of a.
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: So then you probably like this fight. You like this
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: fight probably more than... Because ownership will be a lot lower.
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: What about.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: Oh, yeah.
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, Dumont... Why I'm saying that is this Hernandez-Dumas
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: fight in the mid-tier, highest expected to finish on the slate,
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: it's going to be very owned. Vieira-Bricek, the second most
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: likely fight to finish on the card, going to be
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: so much higher owned. Harold Brenner, this fight's expected to
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: finish at minus 120, going to be higher owned. I
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: will say Aileen Perez might be individually higher than a
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: couple of those fighters in that fight, but Dumas is
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: probably going to be the lowest owned in that range
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: by a wide margin. I mean, she's plus 550 to finish,
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: taking on a wrestler so she could spend time on
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: her back, and she's pretty low volume herself. I struggle
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: with it personally, but for all the cases you made,
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: and she is going to probably be 10% owned or something.
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: And if Eileen Perez is like 25, you get leveraged
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: that way. It is a short card, so I'm looking
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: at ways to get different. We've seen crazier things happen.
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I just want people to know what Big
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: Marley is saying, and he's saying that kind of in
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: a vacuum how he likes this fight. Dumont's probably going
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: to be the lowest owned in that mid-tier. So that
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: is one way to get different if you want chalkier lineups.
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: Or way to get different in chalkier lineups, excuse me.
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: Anything you want to say? What's up, Lone Wolf? Great
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: to see you. Anything you want to say to Steven?
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, they can sell the team. I'd be
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: fine with that. But, man, I feel like we're in
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: for a rough year.
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you guys just played the Chiefs close
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: in Arrowhead, though, in OT.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: Two tough games, yeah.
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: For sure. Yeah, yeah. All right, let's keep it rolling.
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: Next fight on the card, Montel Jackson. Anytime I see
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: that name, I always think of my man Big Marley
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: because he got the, what, 10-second knockout against Blackshear or
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: something when you're all over him. Taking on Ricky Simone,
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: plus 181, plus 125 for this fight to finish. Montel
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: plus 175 inside the distance. Simone plus 550. I'll let
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: you start. What do you see in this one?
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: I'm going to be on Jackson again. I've been high
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: on both of these guys throughout their career. But I
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: just think Simone is washed at this point. He's not
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: the wrestler that he used to be. I love the
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: pace that he used to fight at. He would fight
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: at a high pace while he was standing. And then
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: he would go for a ton of takedowns throughout 15 minutes.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: And now he just doesn't do that anymore. You'd be
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: lucky to land two or three takedowns in any given fight.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: But Jackson is a good wrestler. And I think Simone's
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: going to have trouble wrestling even if he tries to
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: in this fight. And then if Simone's stuck standing, I
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: think Jackson's going to piece him up. I think he's
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: way more dangerous. I think he's more durable as well.
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: I would definitely worry about a decision from Jackson because
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: he's probably not going to look to wrestle too much himself.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: But I think he's live for a knockout in any round.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: And if it's round one, I think we'll be sitting pretty.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: And I don't think ownership will be too high either.
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: I kind of think he gets lost in the sauce
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: with like Rosas Jr.
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: Being right below him.
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: All the people below him should be fairly safe. high-owned,
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: I think. So I don't know. I don't think he'll
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: be low-owned, but I think he'll be low enough where
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: I want to get overweight to Jackson in this one.
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: And Simone, I'm just going to kind of let the
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: field have him. Go after that old wrestling. I don't
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: think it happens. I'm going to fade him. If I
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: was MMAing, I would just be low on him in general.
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: I agree with pretty much what you're saying. There's no
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: doubt Montel is going to be pretty low-owned. Again, with
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: Rosas Jr., like you said, at 8,700 pounds, A couple
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: others like, oh, Bellato for 200 less. I think he's
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: going to be more popular. Then if you go up,
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: you'd want like a Luis Hernandez, depending if he's 9K
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: or 8,500. This Osmanelli guy at 9,100. I do think
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: Jackson gets lost a little bit in the sauce. And yeah,
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: if that's the case, his round one prop plus 400,
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: which is pretty solid, plus 175 to win inside the distance.
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: Maybe he gets a takedown himself. Maybe it's a reversal
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: if Simone gets takedowns. I think there's multiple paths you
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: can see Jackson on the optimal. As far as Ricky Simone,
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: I agree with you. But the thing is I want
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: to know what his ownership is going to be. Like
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: usually Ricky Simone is always high owned. But because Moneyline
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: is going against him, I do think there is some
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: intriguing dogs on this slate. Edwards, Barcelos is definitely going
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: to be high owned. And then he stands. So Simone
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: might come in like third or fourth highest in terms
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: of dogs. If he wins, though, he's going to score
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: more than likely. I mean, he's not outstriking Montel Jackson,
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: so it's going to come through the wrestling. So when
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: he wins, more than likely he's probably optimal. So for
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: that reason, I think I'm just going to have to
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: eat somewhat of the ownership, but I do agree in
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: a vacuum. His durability I'm more concerned about. He can't
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: wrestle for 15 minutes like he used to. The cardio
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: I'm not as sold on as he used to be.
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: He's an age 33-year-old for sure, and I think Montel
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: knocks him out at some point. So Montel is my
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: preferred play. And you get some leverage on the Jackson
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: side as well. All right, let's get to the closest
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: lined and price fight on the card. Josiah Harrell, minus 124.
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: Elvis Brenner, plus 106. Minus 120 for this fight to finish.
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: Both guys plus 235 inside the distance. Some line movement
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: in this one. It was Harrell opening minus 200. And
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: then two minutes later, he was minus 112. And the
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: line hasn't moved too much from there. If anyone didn't
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: see Harrell's last fight, I don't even know if you
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: want to go watch it out. I'm glad he's still
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: alive or watch it. I'm glad he's still alive, but
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: that ref should be absolutely kicked into the sun for
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: the punishment he allowed Harold to take. But I think
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: this is a good scrap. It's just, if it doesn't finish,
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: I'm worried it's not going to be optimal. But yeah,
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: I think these are two pretty good fighters and very
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: well-rounded fighters. I think these guys can have success, both
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: of them, wherever the fight goes. I just hope that
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: each other's talent doesn't mitigate each other and then just
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: make it a boring on the feet ticket or tit
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: for tat fight where they just don't score. Uh, how
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: do you see this fight going?
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, this is the one I'm just really
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: not sure on. I, I think it's going to be
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: a close fight. I would say that, um, I'm, I'm
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: just really torn on, on picking a winner in this one.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: I think it could go, go all sorts of ways where, uh,
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: Josiah is probably the more athletic guy, the better wrestlers
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: got mean ground and pound, uh, Um, but Brenner's just
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: more experienced. I think he's the better striker. I think
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: the longer the fight goes on Brenner's probably a little
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: bit better everywhere maybe. Uh, so maybe early it goes
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: Josiah late Brenner, but I don't, man, I just don't
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: feel good either way, but it is right there in
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: the mid range. So I got it as threes all
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: the way around. I'm fine using it. I'm fine not
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: using it. I'm fine using, uh, Josiah. I'm fine using
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: that same lineup and just dropping down to Brenner instead.
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: I just don't know how this fight plays out. I
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: don't know how it scores. I think there's a wide
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: range from the winner scoring 60 to 100 on either
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: side of this one. So I'm interested, but I'm also
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: not interested. I would say if I'm hand-building a couple lineups,
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: I'd probably try to avoid it. But if I'm MMAing,
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: I'm just going to let it ride however it goes.
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: You like this fight, or you like the Dumont-Perez fight
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: more than this fight? Yeah, definitely.
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: Definitely.
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: You like Dumont individually more than both of these fighters?
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: No, I'd say I'd go in, it'd be Perez and
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: then all three of the other ones. So I would
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: feel like on this card, any Perez lineup you could
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: definitely have is Dumont. So I would almost want four lineups,
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: one with Perez, one with each of these guys and
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: one with Dumont as well. I think I'll just keep
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: like a tighter core on this card rather than spreading
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: it out with like, Simone, the Demopolis fight, the Castaneda fight.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: I think I have enough fades where I can make
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: combinations like that.
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's a really important thing you just said.
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: It's hard for me to do that stuff because my
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: pool is always wider. But when you are fading, like
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: you said, Demopolis, Uruguay, Castaneda, Alitang, Haley, Ricky, Simone, I mean,
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: he just had half the fades to start this card.
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: When you're doing that, it is a lot easier to
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: then be very narrow and just be like, yeah, I'm
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: going to build a core five team, then Perez is
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: in one, Dumont's in one, Harrell's in one, Brenner's in one. Now,
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: do know when you do that and your core people
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: that you aren't fading lose, well, you're probably GG most
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: of the time for the night because you're so concentrated
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: on such a narrow path. Again, I diversify more in
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: this volatile sport, but when you do get things right,
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: you have a lot better chance to have a lot
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: of lineups competing for the top and then you can
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: eliminate a lot of dupes if any team can be
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: Perez and then you go Dumont on that team or
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: even Brenner that's going to eliminate quite a few because
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: you're forcing leaving money you're playing a dog all that
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: good stuff so I don't hate it Big Marley and
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: I I mean we did an education video if you
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: haven't checked it out more education MMA an hour and
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: a half two hours talking and answering questions we do
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: play this more differently there's no doubt about that and
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: that's why I love talking to him on this show
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: All right, let's keep it rolling. Next fight. And I
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: agree with you. Threes all the way around is how
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: I'd have it. Not a fight I'm forcing. It's slightly
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: favored to finish. I respect both guys. Not all finishes
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: probably optimal, but if they do finish at ownership, I
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: would want to be overweight. But yeah, that Hernandez-Dumas fight
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: in the mid-tier, the Bricek-Viera fight, I do like more
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: for sure in a vacuum. Next fight on the card,
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: Rodolfo Bellato, minus 182. Christian Edwards, plus 154. Minus 150
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: for this fight to finish. Bellato, plus 140 inside the distance. Edwards,
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: plus 300. We're going to start getting into a couple fights.
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, I kind of, I guess I'll tip my hand.
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: This fight, Vieira fight, Rosas Jr. fight. I think it's
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: all close enough, and I think the dog, actually, I
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: shouldn't say Vieira fight. I do have a take in
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: that one, but I think it's a close enough fight,
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: and the The ceiling on both guys are similar enough
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: where I can just plug in Balado, take Balado out,
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: go Edwards, and leave 1K. Or if I want to
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: leave money, I can leave 700 in lineups a lot
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: easier when I play Edwards than Balado. I'm going to
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: be all in on the main event. Spoiler alert. I'm
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: going to have a lot of that Hernandez-Dumas fight. Spoiler alert.
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: When I'm eating a lot of chalk, how do I
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: get different? I think fights like this, take Balado out,
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: go Edwards, and you're leaving 1K without sacrificing much upside.
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: That is something I'm going to be doing on this card.
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: So just naturally game theory. I think this is more
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: of a game theory than I know fights card for
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: me when I'm trying to eliminate dupes. This is one
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: of the fights that sit out to me where I
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: can leave money pretty confidently without giving up much upside.
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: So I'll let you talk about the actual fight, the styles,
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: and then how you see it are going down.
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's a good fight to target. I
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: could see either side getting finished with Edwards. I think
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: just the best thing I saw about him was when
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: he got takedowns, he was pretty nasty with his ground
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: and pound. I think if he could get a lot
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: of down, he could finish him with a knockout. But
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: I just didn't really love anything else about his game.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: I didn't love his overall wrestling. I didn't like his striking.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: I think he is a low volume kind of guy
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: when it is on the feet. So I like a
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: lot of. In all aspects of this fight, I think
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: he would be the more dangerous finisher on the feet.
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: I think he's better with submissions. He's more experienced as well.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: So I definitely prefer Bellotto of the two. He's one
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: of my favorite favorites on the card just because he's $ 8, 600
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: and I think he could win by any method. And
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: I also think if I had to bet this fight,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: I would rather take the Bellotto side as well. So
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: he is my preferred play. I'll be overweight to Bellotto,
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: but I would rather have Edwards kind of as a hedge,
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: but I'd rather have him over like Ricky Simone.
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: For sure. Agree with that. I think Edwards is one
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: of the best value plays 7,600 and below on the
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: slate plus 300 is good. Again, I'm fine with a
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: lot of plus one 40 inside the distance as well.
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: Do you see either shooting for takedowns early? Do you
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: think it mainly stays on the feet? Do you have
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: any read there?
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: I feel like Edwards should try to look for takedowns. Um,
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: But I don't know. Maybe I didn't see enough of
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: his fights, but I just wasn't impressed with what I
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: saw on him. I don't even know why he got
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: the call-up to the UFC, to be honest.
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: Fair enough. Just looking at props, because usually when I'm like,
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: is someone going to wrestle, I do like to look
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: at submission prop. Submission's definitely in favor of Bellotto. Plus
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: 475 by sub, Edwards plus 2,000. So I'm looking at it.
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: I think both guys probably stand and bang the whole time,
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: which is not great for DFS. If it does get
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: to the third round or decision, more than likely bust.
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: But another reason why I prefer Edwards to Bellotto due
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: to him being 1K cheaper. All right, next fight on
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: the card, we got Rinyat Nakamura, second biggest favorite at
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: minus 385. Taking on Brady, he's standing plus 309, minus
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: 150 for this fight to finish. Nakamura plus 115 inside
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: the distance. He's standing plus 385. Nakamura opened minus 500
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: in this fight. 20 minutes later, 18 minutes later, was
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: minus 325. And then slowly but surely this week, Nakamura
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: has taken some money– After, I mean, I think he
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: stands a phenomenal play. If he stands and wins this fight,
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: I don't see how he's not optimal. He pushes the pace.
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: He wrestles. His money line is plus 309, and his
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: side of the distance prop is plus 385. So I
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: think on a card, I want to try and leave
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: a little bit of money. And, man, I'm just seeing
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: your stars, and you are completely against it. When he
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: stand wins, I think he's optimal. So that's my only
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: breakdown there. Do I think he beats Nakamura? No, I
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: think Nakamura is probably better everywhere. If he stands wins, though,
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: he's going to wrestle and he's going to have success wrestling.
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: Can the American wrestler beat the Japanese insane wrestler growing up?
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: More than likely not. With that being said, though, Nakamura
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: has been a little disappointing to me in the UFC
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: this far. And I actually thought the line would be
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: wider just because Nakamura has taken it. He's gotten so
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: much respect from the markets ever since he came into
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: the UFC that Um, but yeah, minus three 35, he
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: was on Tuesday. Now he's minus three 85. So the
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: line is starting to move his way, which makes me
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: like he stand a little less. He's still my preferred
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: play though. 9,300 Nakamura. I'll let you talk about it,
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: but how does he score one 10 plus to be
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: optimal in this matchup?
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: I think he could knock out. He stand in the
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: first round. I also think he could wrestle a lot
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: just because of he stands, uh, aggressive wrestling, grappling type
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: of style. I think if he stand forces it, Nakamura
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: could just be the more powerful, better wrestler and he
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: gets the takedowns instead. I also think he stand might
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: start accepting takedowns if it's not going his way on
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: the feet. I think he might try to work his
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: submission game on the ground. But yeah, I agree. If
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: he said does win, I think he would score. Well,
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: I think he could tire out Nakamura in a high
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: pace type of fight, maybe get a choke at some point,
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: but I just think skill wise, we haven't seen them
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: in two years. I don't even know what to expect
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: from this guy. But skill-wise, I just think Nakamura is
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: better everywhere. And the best thing about his stand would
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: be his wrestling. And I don't think he has any
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: wrestling edge in this fight. So that's why I don't
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: really like him. I might move it to a four-star Nakamura,
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: two-star high stand. But I'm really not trying to go
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: under $ 7, 100 on this card. And I just think Nakamura is...
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: Not a clear win, but a fairly clear win on
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: this card. So he's my preferred play. If I can
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: afford 9,300, I'll get a handful of Nakamura's.
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to play some Nakamura too, mainly just
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: because of the pace that he stand pushes. He's going
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: to force Nakamura to do something, which is always what
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: we want. But just like using the odds. All right,
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: plus 310, plus 309 is 24.4%. That's he stands money line.
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: He stands not going to be close to 24% owned.
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: If I think almost all of he stands, wins are optimal. Heck.
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, we talked about, I talked about fricking tie
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: to Evasa. I was kind of kicking myself. Kind of
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: not last week. Tie to Evasa and Ozzie Diaz. And
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: I do think they were sharp plays. Sean Sheriff was
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: in that exact same boat. And again, it's, I never
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: play those plays. So I can't be mad, but if
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: you're looking at odds and everything, everyone has a chance.
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: I just fucking got bouncing survivor. A lot of my
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: teams with the Buccaneers and, the chargers and all this,
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: you parlay those big underdogs. Things happen. People win. MMA
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: plus three Oh nine is 24.4%. If he, if you
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: trust the odds and he wins it that much. And
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: I think 95% of his wins are optimal. I just
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: have to have about 20% personally. So that's how I'm
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: looking at it. He stand my preferred play. I need
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: dogs and just say this fight goes the distance and
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: it's somewhat competitive. He's tank and score 45 and a
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: loss 50 and a loss. and then still be optimal,
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: and then you can jam in other studs above. So
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: I like this fight quite a bit. He's standing as
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: my preferred play for the savings, but I will have
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: some Nakamura as well. All right, we're getting to two
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: fights in a row that are the tough championships. So
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: the winner will get a ticket into the UFC, but
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: that is why you see nothing for the significant strikes
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: per minute, and we still don't even have a reach
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: on the two guys after. But Tina Black and Melissa Amaya,
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: We got black at minus 220, Amaya plus 185. And
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: if you're looking at fight odds, it's Machado da Silva.
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: There's weird names all over the place. FanDuel has Machado.
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: This one has black. DraftKings does. You guys know who
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: we're talking about, though. Again, minus 220, black, plus 185, Amaya,
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: plus 200 for this fight to finish. Black plus 300
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: inside the distance, Amaya plus 550. One of my least
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: favorite fights on the card. I didn't plan on really
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: getting any. I said dogger pass because we might need
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: some dogs at 7,300. Didn't plan on playing black unless
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: you talked me into something.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: No, I actually just moved my stars on this to
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: two stars on black and four to Amaya. Same with
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: the Nakamura. I did four and two on that one.
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: But I think this being the tough finale fight, it
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: could be fought at a high pace. Um, both of
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: them are, are okay. Strikers. I think they're fine on
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: the feet, but Tina black is the better striker. Uh,
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: she looks faster, more dangerous and she throws punches in combos.
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: So I think she could put up more volume in
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: a 15 minute fight. I also think she could get
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: a knockdown here or there. She's pretty powerful. Um, Amaya though,
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: I think she, uh, she's better with kicks. I think
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: she is the better submission grappler of the two. So
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: she should be the one looking to, uh, grapple. And
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: if she wins, I think she would score well. Whereas
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: if black wins, it's going to be tougher to compete
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: with the optimal lineup. So that's why I prefer Amaya.
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: I think she probably has more ways to win this fight,
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: but black just looks like the better overall prospect. And
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: I think she can keep this fight standing long enough
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: to where, uh, she wins too. Maybe all three, all
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: three rounds on the feet. But, um, Amaya is an
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: interesting dog at 7,300 because I think she is well-rounded.
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: She's never lost before. And if she does look for
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: a takedown, she's going to score well and win.
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: Okay. I like it. Dogger pass for me. Dogger pass
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: for you. You said you changed this to two stars,
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: four stars? Yep. Yep. Okay. I like it. I'm on
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: the same page. Really tough for me to get to
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: any black at 8,900. Let's get to the second of
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: two tough fights. Again, we appreciate everyone hanging out. We're
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: not wasting time. We never do. You guys tune into
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: these shows. Everyone's time. It's valuable, so we break each
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: fight down how we see it, whether it takes 45 minutes,
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: an hour, 15, you name it. Hold on, let me
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: see what Lather said. UFC just found out Dumont versus
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: Hernandez is on the main card. Dumont versus Hernandez. Oh,
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: so they're saying Hernandez-Dumas is on the main card. Norma
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: versus Aileen is the co-main event? No chance. Interesting. What?
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: What?
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: Why would Norma Dumont, Aileen Perez go from the ninth
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: to the co-main events and Rinya Rodolfo are on the prelims? Okay. Yeah.
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, thankfully it means nothing for DFS. Again, all
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: fights are independent from each other. I definitely agree with
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: putting Luis Hernandez Dumas on the main card. I think
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: that is not probably the most hyped up fight for
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: the card, but to put Dumont, Aileen Perez in the
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: co-main events is one of the more head scratching things
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: I've seen.
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: Trying to see Perez shake that ass on Paramount.
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: I guess. I mean, shit. Yeah, again, it doesn't matter
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: for the DFS. Appreciate that, though. Interesting move, in my opinion,
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: for the Perez fight. But yeah, Hernandez-Dumas, I would have
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: put that to the co-main event. Everyone wants to see
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: the cop beat up the felon. Unless maybe my teams
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: might want the felon, so we'll see. All right, three
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: fights left. Again, the second of two tough fights. I'm
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: definitely going to butcher this name. Mohamedeli Osmaneli. Osman Lee?
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: Let's go with that. Mohamedeli Osmaneli. If I say it wrong,
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: definitely say it how you say it. Thinking on Ilumbek Akhlabek.
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: We got, oh my gosh. Osmaneli minus 279. Akhlabek plus 231.
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: Minus 160 for this fight to finish. Osman Ali, minus
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: 120 inside the distance. Alubek, plus 600. Yeah, that's enough
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: pronouncing these guys' names. So you can take this fight over,
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: and then I'll add anything after.
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: I've been calling this guy like Ulu in my head
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: because Fight Odds has it that way. But the other
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: guy is like Muhammad Ali is what it sounds like,
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: his first name. So that makes me like him. And
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: he is a really good striker. I think Osman Ali,
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: I think he could be the goods. He's only 22
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: years old. And he looks like a pretty dangerous striker.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: He's fast. And he's also got a pretty good grappling
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: game because he is used to people taking him down.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: So he's got some good chokes. He's got a good
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: get-up game. And he's going to need that in this
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: one because Aklebek is just a wrestler grappler. When it's
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: on the feet, he's pretty much doing nothing. But he's
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: going to be shooting for single legs and trying to
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: get it up against the cage and then shooting for
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: a double. If he gets it, I think he probably
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: could win all three rounds with wrestling. He's also alive
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: for a submission at some point on the ground. But
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: if he wins, it's going to have to come through
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: multiple takedowns and lots of ground control time. And on tough,
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: Cormier was worried about the entire team having to face
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: this guy and his wrestling during the draft pick. So
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's anything to worry about. But
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: he drafted somebody else specifically to fight this guy because
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: of the wrestling. But Osmanli might just have some trouble
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: just facing takedowns the entire 15 minutes and this being
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: a snooze fest. But at the same time, this Aklebek
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: guy cannot strike with Osmanli. If he's stuck on the feet,
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: I think at some point he's going to get knocked out.
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: And it could be in the first round if he's
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: not landing his first takedown. So I am picking him
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: to get the knockout. That's just the only way that
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: this fight will be exciting. And if the other guy wins,
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: hopefully I have enough DFS lineups to where it makes
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: it exciting sweat-wise.
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: I agree with all of that. Aspinelli opened minus 400
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: less than an hour later, about 30 minutes later, was
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: minus 275, and the line hasn't really moved from there.
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: This fight opened minus 150 to finish, now minus 160. Aspinelli,
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: one of the best inside the distant props on the slate,
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: plus 115, now minus 120. So yeah, all the finishing
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: upside on the Osmanelli side. He's also plus 250 by sub,
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: open plus 375. And I do think a lot of
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: that is because Albeck's going to want to wrestle. Like
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: you mentioned, he has to wrestle in this one, which
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: does bring the interest with him. When he wins, he
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: should score because of that. And I think Osmanelli's relatively popular.
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: So you get some leverage off of him as well.
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: So that makes Albeck a great play. But Osmanelli's just
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: in a vacuum. Not many are expected to finish. on
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: this card i think two maybe to be exact hernandez
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: will probably be expected to finish um but yeah i
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: mean when he wins maybe it's reversals maybe it's takedowns
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: maybe it's control time but he's definitely has advantage on
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: the feet for multiple knockdown upsides so i just think
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: this is a phenomenal fight to target on both sides
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: and ownership should be relatively low on albic with leverage
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: and the wrestling style you want so i like it
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: um Yep, what's up, David? Yep, we did see Mickey
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: Gall as withdrew. So we talked about the Luis Hernandez-Dumas fight.
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: Luis Hernandez is in for Mickey Gall. So yeah, just rewind.
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: We're going to be done relatively soon. Go to the beginning.
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: And we talked about that. Peyton Dumas and all lineups
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: say that's a profitable strategy, or at least has been
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: most of the time. All right, two fights left. What
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: was the co-main event might not be any more important.
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: if it is true what the bout order said, but
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: Rodolfo Vieira minus 157, Robert Bricek plus 134. This fight
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: is minus 250 to finish. We have Vieira plus 140
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: and said the distance Bricek plus 170. So this was
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: the fight that I mentioned at first that I was like,
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: all right, I can easily go any Bricek team or
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: any Vieira team dropped down to Bricek and leave 600,
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: which is true. And I will do on some teams,
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: but the reason that I'm not, picking him. And the
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: reason I'm still going to want more Vieira, I think.
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: Vieira opened plus 177. What a bad opener. Two minutes later,
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: minus 110. And the money has just kept coming on Vieira.
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: We can see on Tuesday. I guess I'm from Tuesday
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: to now it hasn't moved much, but the line has
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: not stopped moving against the Brechak side. The grappler in
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: Vieira versus the striker in Brechak. I think the grappler
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: in Vieira wins out in this one. I like the
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: line movement. But again, with all that being said, I
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: do like Bricek. It's the second most likely fight to
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: finish on the card. And when he wins, he should
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: score pretty well. He's also 7,800 and the ability to
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: leave 600 plus pretty easily just dropping down from Vieira.
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: So I like this fight quite a bit. Vieira is
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: my preferred play, but not by much. I don't think
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: due to the pricing.
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely like this fight, but I, Think it's
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: really reliant on a finish for either side to score well.
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: If this goes to a decision, I just wouldn't feel
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: good about either guy being on the optimal lineup. Vieira
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: just doesn't wrestle enough or long enough to score well
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: in a decision. He's also not a great striker to
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: where he's going to be throwing volume or landing many knockdowns.
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: So I think Vieira is submission or bust. And then Breachick,
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: he's not a really high volume striker either. Like if
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: we're turning knockouts off, I think Vieira could hang with
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: them for 15 minutes and we wouldn't even really know
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: who's winning that striking match. I think it would probably
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: be towards Breachick. But if he's not getting a knockout,
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: he's just not high volume enough either. He's going to
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: need multiple knockdowns to score well. So I think he
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: needs to knock out Vieira in the first or second round.
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: Maybe third could be fine too, but I would imagine
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: if it goes to the third, he could have spent
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: the first round on his back for four minutes and
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: done absolutely nothing. Um, so my preferred play is Vieira.
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: I think Vieira can strike with Breachick, but Breachick can't
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: grapple with Vieira. Uh, if Vieira gets a takedown in
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: the first round while he's fresh, I just feel like
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: he gets like a head and arm choke and puts
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: this guy away. So I like Vieira. I'll be overweight
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: to him, probably around field on Breachick just so I
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: don't get too burned. Uh, but I'd say it's closer
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: to a three star than a five star just because
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: of the whole If they don't get a finish, they
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: probably don't score well.
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: Okay. Yeah, I mean, again, you only have so many
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: fights to pick from on this one, and it's minus
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: 250 to finish the second most likely on the card.
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: So I'm going to be forced into playing it, but
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: if you do fade, you will get a little leverage.
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: Any Vieira team, if you're dropping to Harold, to Brenner,
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: to Norma Dumont, that is definitely a way you can
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: get different on this card. All right. Main event time.
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: Appreciate it again, everyone hanging out with us, watching live
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: and watching on Playback. It's not the best card on paper,
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: but hey, we have fights on our screen on Saturday
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: with college football, with NFL the next day. It's the
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: best time of the year. You will absolutely hear no
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: complaints from me. Good main events. Raul Rosas Jr. minus 160.
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: Ioni Barcelos plus 136. Minus 130 for this fight to finish.
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: Rosas plus 140 inside the distance. Barcelos plus 385. All right,
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: you have more stars on Barcelos. I want you to
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: break down this fight, but I need to hear how
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: this fight busts and isn't optimal outside of nut kicks and,
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: and eye pokes or whatever, because I plan on having
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: a hundred percent. I'm struggling to see how it's not optimal. Yeah.
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm going to have a hundred percent as well.
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: But the way it's not optimal is Rosas wrestles like
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: crazy for first two rounds dominates. And then Barcelos finishes
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: them after that and just doesn't score enough. I think
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: it would be a Barcelos win for, that doesn't end
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: up on the optimal lineup. If Rosas Jr. wins, I
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: expect a big-time score and really the highest ceiling on
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: the entire slate because he's going to have to wrestle.
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: He's going to have to grapple and look for submissions.
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: The whole fight has to take place on the ground
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: for him to win. So if that's the case, he's
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: definitely going to score well. I think he's live to
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: do that, but, man, I don't know that I would
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: favor him this much over a guy like Barcelos, man. Barcelos,
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: really good grappler himself. way more experienced, beat really good competition.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: I think he's the full package. He's just 39 years
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: old now. And if he can keep this fight standing,
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: I think he's going to end up knocking out Rosas
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: at some point. 15 minutes or 25 minutes is probably
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: just too long for Rosas to be able to stand
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: and strike with Barcelos. So I just think it's going
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: to be a Barcelos finish at some point, but he
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: could have to deal with a lot of adversity early
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: in this fight when Rosas is wrestling heavy. So I'm
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: going to make sure I was actually building lineups on
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: Saber Sim earlier and I had like 40 or something that,
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: that I liked. And then I was like, wait a minute,
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: let me make sure that this fight is in there.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: So I went through all 40 and I X'd out
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: anything that didn't, that had this fight excluded from it.
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: So I think I will just be a hundred percent
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: all in. I also don't think I'm going to have
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: 40 lineups. I'll probably be trying to get closer to 20,
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: but I'll be overweight to Barcelos. Very overweight. I think
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: I might double the field. on Barcelos and I'll be
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: low on Rosas. Just any lineups that I don't have
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: Barcelos in Rosas will be there for sure. But I
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: would imagine if I'm playing Rosas, I'm probably going to
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: have to play that Aclobet guy just because, um.
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: Aclobet, Keystand, Edward, you didn't like Keystand as much. You
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: were fine with the buyer.
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: So it's forcing me to be like all in on Barcelos.
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And I, again, I do think that you'll ownership
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: will be relatively similar on both these guys, which might
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: surprise you at first, But it comes down to, yeah, Barcelos, 1,200 cheaper,
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: still in a good fight to target at minus 140
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: with only 12 fights, with dogs relatively tough. I'm thinking,
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: and I do agree with you, like if Rosas Jr.
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: just wrestle fucks him the first two rounds and Barcelos
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: catches him in the third and scores 55, like that's
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: not going to be it enough. But, man, it feels
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: like it'd really have to be a quick finish in
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: the third or like he would really have to do
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: nothing at 7,500. Even if he scores 78, more than
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: likely that fight's going to be optimal. But I do
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: agree with you. It has to be a Barcelos win.
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: doesn't have to be nothing has to happen but more
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: than likely Barcelos's win is how this fight busts because
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: Rosas Jr. I mean he's going to wrestle he's going
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: to have to wrestle early and often and his style
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: is so good for DraftKings averages over six takedowns per
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: 15 minutes so I'm thinking somewhere around 65-35 Barcelos in
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: this one When Rosas wins, he's the favorite, probably optimal.
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: So I definitely want some there. But I can leave $ 1, 200
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: or it's a lot easier to leave $ 600, $ 700, $ 800
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: when I am playing Barcelos over Rosas Jr. So that
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: is the reason I'm on the dog in this one. Again,
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: he can grapple. He can strike. We'll have the striking advantage. Also,
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: line movement. Rosas opened minus 210. Now all the way
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: down to minus 160. Money is continued. to come against him.
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: So I'm going to follow the line movement. I'm going
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: to go with the cheaper fighter. It's a lot easier
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: to leave money with him. And I'm also going Ioni Barcelos.
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: With that being said, though, Raul Rosas Jr., when he wins,
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: probably going to be optimal. So I plan on having
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: 100% of this fight, which, again, is the reason why
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: I mentioned leaving 1K with Edwards. The interest in he stand,
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: easier to leave money. Amaya, Albeck. There is dogs I'm
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: going to play on this card. I definitely will not
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: be stacking the main event personally. That's all I got.
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: 12 fights at the Apex, 5 p.m. Eastern on Saturday.
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: Any final thoughts from you, Big Marley?
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: No, man. Hopefully it's a good DFS card. Hopefully you
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: continue all your DFS luck. You can roll over your
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: weekend success over here to these fights, but good luck
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: to you, Tidal. Good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it.
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: Let's ship it indeed. Again, we'd love to have you
• 50:56
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• 50:59
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• 51:03
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• 52:16
  Speaker 2: Big Marley. Good luck tonight in the NFL streets. Good
• 52:19
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• 52:30
  Speaker 2: Be safe. Peace.