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The Open Championship PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all system's going clear to the lift.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: What's up everyone? Tyler Tambaline here aka TOTEG and Tambo
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: back for another edition of Leverage Lane. The PGA D's
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: here pg A dast edition Here on the Shimmer Nation
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: YouTube station. We've got the Open, the final major of
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: the season. My man Alex Bookle is here with me
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: as always, and we're gonna break down all things from
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: a leverage perspective. We're going to talk about the common build,
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: the chalk build, how we can leverage that, large field tournaments,
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: the MM effect of the millimakers. This week, weather course,
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: fit one and done, betting breakdown and more. Alex, my friend,
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: last major of the season is a good one, and
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: I think there's a ton of strategy to be had here.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: We didn't even talk about the topic off the top.
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: We're talking about so many different NFL things and future
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: items and upcoming items that we're talking about. So I'm excited, man,
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: But it's gonna be a good one.
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: How you do, my friend, dude, It's kind of crazy
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: like it. It doesn't feel that long ago where we
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: were debating whether or not to you Scotti Scheffler at
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: the American Express, right and feeling all the excitement for
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: a gus around the corner and all that stuff, and
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: now here we are several months later, more than several
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: months even, and the major seasons coming to an end.
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: It's it's bittersweet, but as you said, like that also
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: means football's right around the corner, and like I couldn't
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: possibly be more excited for this football season. But yeah,
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: this this Open Championship, I think I really like like it.
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: From a defense perspective, We're obviously going to talk a
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: lot about the pricing, and I do think that the
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: pricing makes the kind of like the puzzle that we're
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: trying to solve a little bit frustrating to some degree,
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: just because it's like everyone is going to have good lineups,
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: and you like, one of the things I really like
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: doing in DFS is taking advantage of the mistakes that
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: I think people are gonna make. You kind of can't
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: make mistakes this week, and so I think from that perspective,
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: it's it's a little bit frustrating, But the rest of
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: the Open Championship week and the process and you know,
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: finding the right splits to look at, Like I'm super
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: excited for this week. I think it's going to be
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: a really fun one, and I think that there are
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: plenty of edges to be found.
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna rope a bunch of topics in off of
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: that actually right away, because I've got some good ones.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: Now that you said that remind me of something that
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: we talked about for the DFS master My roundtable the
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: other night on Monday. So I'm gonna talk about the
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: soft pricing in a second, but I'm gonna give you
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: a quick think fast. You're the ownership guru. Bang, where
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: do you got Scotty over under twenty percent as of
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: right now? And let's just use the twenty five dollars
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: million maker as an example.
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I got them over slightly over, not like crazy
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: crazy over. But I just think like they The way
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: that I would put it is, I don't think they're
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: gonna be a ton of people who make Scheffler their
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: first click. But they're gonna be a ton of people
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: who go in and they're they're picking their favorite values,
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: and they've got three guys in and now they realize,
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: oh my god, I have ten thousand dollars remitting for
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: my last three spots. I could go Tommy fitz and
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: Oberg or I could go Scotty and now play you know,
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: two of my favorite AK guys or something like that,
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: and so yeah, I think they're just gonna be. There
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: are so many ways to play a Scotty lineup this week,
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: whereas for most of the season it's been like, okay,
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: if you if you click Scotty, you're locked into this
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: range and there aren't that many guys you like down there.
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: The way I put it on the show with Pat
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: is like there are twenty seven guys at seven thousand
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: dollars or more. The vast majority of the field is
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: six k or lower, and a lot of those guys
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: are really good golfers. They're really good players. They've they're
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: in good four they have good major championship history. Like,
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: there are just so many really high quality DFS plays
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: that are one thousand dollars two thousand dollars too cheap
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: way down there, and that's going to make it really
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: easy to fit Scotty.
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: And we're gonna talk more about that later because you know,
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: the crazy thing about soft pricing. So that's what I
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: want to start with my topic for this week, and
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: you said it. So first of all, it's like the
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: most talked about thing. It's on X It's on all
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: the podcasts, all the shows, everything else like that. And
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: by the way, if anyone's joining us for the first time,
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: I saw somebody say here, recent subscriber to the show,
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: after seeing you guys on PME. We'll talk more about
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: making your lineup unique enough later. But the other shows
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: looking for picks and clicks because they have to get
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: out early in the week and get all that. We
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: love that stuff too, but the picks we leave aside,
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: and we don't care about the clicks. We put it
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: out late Wednesday morning of the major starting you know,
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: late late tonight early morning tomorrow, to give you the
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: most pertinent information based on your DFS lineup to help
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: you win money. So that's really our focus here. But
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: I will say the soft pricing is everywhere, and a
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: couple things. If again, some people will be coming, you know,
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: common nature whatever you want to call it, second nature
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: or very common to hear this. But I will say
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: the first of all, they got a film million makers
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: and five dollars one hundred, five hundred K prize pools
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: with fifty K up top with one hundred and seventeen
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: thousand entries. So we always get softer pricing at the majors.
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: That's no surprise. Then you hear the next level, Oh,
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: but this one's extra soft. Actually, if the Open is
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: very commonly the most soft, because it's the last major
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: of the season, it does not have the same impact
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: or excitement or hype as the Masters does to start
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: the season. The same reason we don't see the one
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars million maker after the Masters, even it's only
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: at the Masters, and then you don't see it at
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: the other one. There's a little bit less hype, but
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: there's still a lot. But I will say, Alex and again,
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: I know everyone says this, but it teach their own
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: My best success and it's not because I ramp up
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: and get ready for a major, like I wish it
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: was that easy. I'd get ready for every week if
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: that was the case. We just happens to be that
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: I have more success at these majors, and I think
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: because of the soft pricing. I explain this on Monday
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: to people. I will say, people really struggle, man, you
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: don't know the dms I'm getting of, Like, oh and
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: somebody has it in here. Somebody just posts and they
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: could be joking because they put a laughing emoji, but
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: like this, I've got like three four dms the last
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: two days about people like can I just leave five
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: ground on the table, I'm getting nervous about this or
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: I'm unsure whatever whatever. So it's like there's so many
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: things that you can think about to do. But I
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: actually think, yes, there's very more variance when everyone can
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: make it all star lineup, and I get that, But
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: I think it does two things.
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: One, I think it.
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: Congests the ownership. When we go to the common build today,
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: it's very freaking simple, like we'll build it in two
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: seconds and be like, here's that. We might be able
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: to predict the most duped build this week because of
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: the pricing is so soft, So that is important. Secondly,
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: people overthink everything and so like it's like you said, like, oh,
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: I got to pick this value, this value, this value,
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: and then what does that leave me? Choc chok chalk,
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: and they fill it out. Well, hopefully I'm different with
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: the values. Or I did use a couple of six
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: K guys, so I feel good about that. So I
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: just think like there's so many areas left open with
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: that and different ways to build and styles, and we'll
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: talk about that more later when we get the leveraging
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: the chalk bill, but just any follow up on that.
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: I do think the important thing that I'm trying to
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: point out with the soft pricing is that everybody is
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: still dealing with the same thing, and so it's really
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: more about what you do with it. And again we're
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: always trying to think moves ahead and play the actual game.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: It's like, to me, I'm actually fine when there's soft pricing.
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: I think others really struggle with it.
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm torn because on the one hand, like I
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: think the best part about soft pricing is that you're
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: going to be able to pivot off of the chalk
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: to other really really good plays, like sometimes when pricing
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: is really tight. I actually think of last NFL season
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: as like a really good example of this, where it
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: was like they were probably four or five weeks in
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: a row kind of in the middle of the season
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: where pricing was so tight that like the only usable
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: values we're always going to be twenty thirty percent own.
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: It was like, well, these guys are also likely to fail,
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: so do I pivot off of them by like using
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: and even more likely to fail guy, or it was
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: just it was hard to do. So finding pivots that
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: you're actually confident was really tough. But with this soft pricing,
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: you're always going to be able to find pivots that
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: are like five percent owned, eight percent owned at any
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: price range except for like all the way up top,
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: did you feel genuinely great about and so that I
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: think is the fun part of the soft pricing. I
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: definitely want to ask you to kind of elaborate on
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: why you think you've had success. But before that, do
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: you want to kind of talk about that question about
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: leaving money on the table, because I do think it's
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: something we're talking about.
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I answered, I mean the former first off,
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: just because like I said to me, it's like pretty
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: cut and dry. Somebody said like this, like I truly believe,
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: and I've said this a million times. You're an ownership guru,
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: so you literally create your own ownership. I have a
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: team that does it. We have a team over at
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: ship a nation taking care of it. But I will
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: say that NBA all over the place, NFL, especially when
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: contest sims came into play, Well, if if nobody's gonna play, saque,
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna get like thirty percent, and then the contest
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: sims got everybody thirty percent, and then say Kwon Barkley
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: is thirty percent. And now your ownership projections are garbage,
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: which means your contest sims that you like that you
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: built off of those projections are probably not in good shape.
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: So you don't actually have what you think you have.
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: There's tons more to that. Obviously, you just surface level
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: here what I think though, and you know, teach their
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: own with golf, but it's been pretty accurate, I know,
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: for yourself and for us over Atchiper Nation. In some
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: weeks it's off, and you know that's just the nature
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: of the beast. But I will say I like it
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: because we know in golf you kind of just know
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: there's not another sport that I truly believe where you
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: actually have In baseball even at stuff, Okay, Judge is
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: gonna be on, but where is the ownership on the
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: rest of the Yankees actually going to go? And so
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: on and so on and so forth. For all these sports,
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: I think the individual sports like golf, MMA and NASCAR,
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: I feel like the ownership is much more congregated and
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: dialed into, like we're within these closer ranges, it can
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: get so much more accurate. And when I have that,
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: and then I'm building against that, accordingly, I'm actually building
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: against what the real field is probably most most likely
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: going to do because I have my own process. Most
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: people don't have a process. They're just we talk about
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: all the time renting one. Well, so if everyone says
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: this and these are their rankings, I better just build
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: that lineup. That's all baked into the projections. It's nothing
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: against models. We talked about this on Monday Night. But
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: just to use this again with stat models, Oh, this
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: place is gonna play firm. Oh really, I didn't see
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: the seventy thousand posts on X Oh this is not
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: the same Royal Birkdale as twenty seventeen. Really, I didn't
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: see the same seventy thousand posts on X about that.
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: Or they're here it on the show so we all
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: know this. Oh well, if they're saying that, I'm gonna
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: go look up my model and turn it to these stats. Okay, cool,
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: Now everybody just did that. Now what do you have
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: the same stuff? And it's not that everybody has it
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: because it's probably the right path to be honest, Like
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: I get it. You understand how the course plays. You
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: know golf courses better than most. I can't wait to
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: hear your talks today around course fit and playing this
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: course and things about it. But what I'm saying is
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: a lot of that stuff ends up baked into the projections,
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: and then it's aked into the because of that that's
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: baked into the ownership, because the optimizers and stuff that
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: are pushing it. So I guess what I'm saying is
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: when you know what the field's going to do, and
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: because I don't give a shit about picks and plays,
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: I just land on what I land on. Up against
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: that the picks and plays are a result of the process.
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: You will need the best golfers on your line up
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: on Sunday that score the most Fantasy points to put
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: you to the top to win a tournament. It's like
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: beating a dead horse. I apologize, but I'm just saying,
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: if that's really how I play, so I never have
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: to think about it about all these other decisions, I
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: just let that fall into place. Get what I get,
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: play the game accordingly. And I will say this to
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: you folks out there that are like, oh, but picks
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: and if everyone knew golf picks man, Why do the
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: people that bet ten golfers on their card, or even
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: the ones that bet five golfers on their card proper
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: like whatever they play to win seven to one or
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: eight to one, pretty standard stuff, no shots, nothing wrong
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: with that. Why don't they hit eight winners? Why is
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: it so hard to hit the eight winners then and
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: break even and make money? Because it's so hard to
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: predict golf. But DFS, when you play the game, you
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: can actually focus. I'm building the lineups, and if you
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: know more about what the field is doing, that gives
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: you a leg up going in. That's what I would
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: answer the first part, and then we could talk more
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: about the the pricing and leaving money on the table,
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: but goes with it a little bit.
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: It's interesting because I don't totally agree with the premise
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: that super soft pricing concentrates ownership. Certainly on some players,
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: it does, like the most underpriced players, Yeah, they're gonna
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: like it's it's pretty clear to identify, pretty easy to
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: identify the guys who are going to be twenty twenty
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: five percent on something like that. But you know, we
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: we've seen guys get to forty forty five fifty percent
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: in single injuries, and I don't think that anyone's getting
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: there this week because what I would say is instead
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: it like dilutes ownership on the secondary chalk guys and
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: the other guys who are very good plays, but they're
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: not quite as underpriced as some others. But it's I get,
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: I get the idea. It's like you're.
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: Essentially phrase too, because I want to give you I mean,
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: this will win it right here, of like not win it,
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: but like say, like my point made is it's not
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: necessarily gonna be congest. It's not like we're gonna get
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: five guys over thirty percent. I'm not saying congested in
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: that sense, So maybe the wrong use of the word.
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: What I'm saying is very clearly and I think this
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: is like hard stop. No other answer to it is.
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: If I asked you right now to predict the top
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: ten in ownership, I'm guessing you'd get like seven to
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: maybe all ten correct. Like we know where it's going,
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: which then we know what that leads to incertain builds,
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: which then that again I still know we're up against
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: something more accurate. So congested probably the wrong word. That's
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: more like the lazy weeks where you are getting you know,
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: three golfers over thirty percent, a bunch in the twenties,
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: and then it trickles off and you're like, Okay, everyone's
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: landing on like Novak, Michael Kim, Jackson, Coyvin and Ben
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: Griffin the JDC a few weeks ago. That was very congested,
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: lazy event. I get it, but it'll be more spread
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: out because it's a major and softer pricing. But I'm saying,
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: if I ask you and ownership Guru or any top
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: DFS player in PGADFS right now, who the top own
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: they're gonna be this week, they're gonna get seven plus
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: right based on today anything. You didn't have to wait
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: till today to know that Tom Kim and see who
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: Kim and these types of guy Maddy Fits, etc. Like
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: they're all gonna be in the mix in some way,
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: shape or form, and then you do an even better job.
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: Why the show is so important? I'm saying, well, not
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: just that, but now let's talk about the combinations, and
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: that's where it really matters. More Like you're gonna say, Okay,
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: I know who this guy's gonna be in with, and
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: that's another thing. So that's what I meant is that
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: we have more knowledge, we're more comfortable, or more we
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: feel better about the accuracy of it, at least I
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: do on a week like this where I'm like, I
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: actually feel really good about that, So I feel good
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: about the lineups that I'm building going up against that.
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I like that explanation. I'd also say, like it
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: reminds me of the point I wanted to make earlier
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: about like how pricing is different here than it was
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: back at the PGA Championship for example, because we also
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: had really self pricing then. But if you remember that week,
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: like Nikolai Hoygard was forty five percent and single entries
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: or something like that, because he was sixty five hundred
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: dollars and he was like the clear underpriced guy. Yeah,
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: well this week, we have like ten of those guys
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: who are like as underpriced as Nikolai was that week,
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: and so yeah, instead of getting one at forty five,
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: we'll get three at twenty or three at twenty five
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: something like that. So yeah, I think that's a good point.
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: And like I said, that also then means we not
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: only do we know who the guys are who are
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: going to get that much ownership. But because we know
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: who's going to get that much ownership, we also know
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: the guys who are protected and like they're they just
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: don't really have a path to being more than ten percent,
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: and yet we think they're really good plays. And so
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: I do want to talk about the leaving money on
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: the table. Yeah, So the first thing I'll say here
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: is like, as you know, I've been doing a lot
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: of MLB roster construction analysis and just drop some really
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: really cool NFL roster construction analysis. It's harder to do
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: that for PGA because you don't get like any stacks
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: or something, right, It's just these are your six players.
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: But one of the things that I did do for
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: the PGA roster construction stuff was just look at salary
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: owned and basically like anything that leaves more than five
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: hundred dollars on the table is just such a big
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: time losing strategy. And the reason for this is because
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: let's say you have six hundred dollars left on the table.
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: For that to be the right way to go, for
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: that to be the strongest lineup that you can build,
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: you have to be able to look at every single
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: player in your lineup, Compare him, Compare the guy that
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: you have to everyone who's up to six hundred dollars
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: more expensive, and say, yes, I think that this guy
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: has is a better play than all of those guys,
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: and not just the guys that are below him in
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: price the way we usually have to do. Another way
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: to put this is like I was looking at I
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: was looking at some like twov two comparisons for just
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: a random lineup that I had built. And if I
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: wanted to change a two v two when I had
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: no money left on the table, there were like four
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: different combos that I could go to for similar, similar
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: price guys and similar projected guys. If I wanted to
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: go to a three v three, it was like, now
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: instead of four options, I had something like twelve options.
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: If you have six hundred dollars left on the table,
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: instead of trying to make the right choice out of
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: four or twelve options, it's like trying to make the
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: right choice out of fifty and like six hundred some options.
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: Like it's crazy how many different possibilities you can go
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: to and unlock that you now have to beat in
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: order to have the right lineup. If you are leaving
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: money on the table, so you're just again like it
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: doesn't feel like a huge thing. But even when you're
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: only leaving six hundred dollars on the table let alone,
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: like the five thousand, which obviously was an exaggeration in
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: the chat, you're just making things so so so much
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: more difficult on yourself. And that's not just like a
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: mathematical answer. It's also born out in the actual data
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: where leaving money on the table creates losing lineups.
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: And it's not just I know this because your research
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: and I follow it like it's like super excited. The
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: part one only of what you put up for the
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: NFL so far have me fired up for like two
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: hours reading through it the other night, and record so
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: love that. But I will say, like a lot of
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: people say, okay, Alex, but you brought up a good point.
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: Anyone who's been with us at least for a long time,
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: we will be back for NFL leverage laying this upcoming season,
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: which we're excited about. But I will say, remember the
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: two tight end thing when you're like, yeah, but remember
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: no one's really playing two tight end lineups, so you're
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: not going to get to see how that data plays
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: out as much because you know, no one's really going
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: there of only three percent of the fields playing it.
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: Of course you didn't see them, even though it felt
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: like it was National tight End Week during Week three
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: last year or whatever it was. And we remember this conversation.
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: You say, well, not a lot of people are using
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: those those lineups. But at the end of the day,
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: the points to me and you hit it home quite well,
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: is I think like when you're trying to do that,
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: it's not that like the medium project it's medium projections golf.
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: Like if you get you know, three thirty three as
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: your projection, and three fifty seven is the optimal, like,
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: so be it. Like that might mean nothing because whatever, whatever.
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: But the point is is like people say, oh, the
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: but here's what I got. Commonly the optimal, the optimal
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: always comes in at forty six five and forty five.
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: Say it's like, yeah, that's literally you don't need the
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: optimal to win, Like the winning lineup might be sixty
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: seventy points off the optimal in PGA some weeks, like
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: it's just it's not very often. And you said, well,
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna build all one hundred and fifty lineups and
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: hope to hit that lottery ticket. There might be a
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: million lineup combinations in there, and you're trying to get
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty of them, and you haven't even
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: touched the top ten percent of those lineups that you
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: needed to have that ended up being the actual optimal
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: and whatever whatever. So it's like, you don't need to
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: do it. You probably won't get it right if you
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: do do it. Even if you do it with all
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: of your lineups, it probably still won't matter because it's
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: still out of such a small it's such a small
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: portion out of such a big number that it's like
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: really not gonna be valuable to you trying to get
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: that right. And again, if you just knew that stuff
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: so well, you could just apply it. Then if you
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: were good at that, just take that lineup and figure
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: out who the exact one B one is. Then if
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: you're good enough to figure that out, you may as
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: well just figure out the rest of it and just
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: build it accordingly and build it within the five hundred
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: dollars plus parameters.
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: So three things here, Hopefully I can remember all three points.
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: The first one is just addressing your point about like
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: the tight end stuff. So when I say that it's
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: a losing strategy. I don't mean that it's not like
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: that we're not seeing those lineups at the top. What
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: I mean is, given how often it's played, it's finishing
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: in the top ten percent, in the top one percent
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: of lineups less often than we would expect if if
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: we just like treated every lineup as random and and
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: there was you know, no skill involved. So when I
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: say it's a losing strategy, I mean like people who
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: are playing those lineups are are being disappointed by the
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: lineups far more often than the average person in the contest.
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: So that's part one. Part two is I think another
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: key point to make here is think about all of
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: the people who are actually playing those lines. They're leaving
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: six hundred dollars on the table, one thousand dollars on
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: the table, fifteen hundred dollars on the table. I don't
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: think any of those people have the assumption that, you
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: know what, this is a bad week to leave money
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: on the table, but I'm gonna do it anyway. Just
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: about everyone who is doing that, everyone who's leaving money
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: on the table, they're saying something in their mind of like,
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: usually this is a bad idea, but maybe this week
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: it's a good idea, Maybe this week is actually sharp,
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: and it still ends up being losing strategy. And so
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: I certainly like, is it possible to build a good
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: lineup that leaves the money on the table. Yes, Is
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: it possible to have to have success with it, Yes,
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: but you're just making things harder on yourself than if
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: you just build a normal lineup. And and the last
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: point I'll make there, and I think this does a
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: good job of kind of driving the point home is
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: let's say you have you nail, like the top four
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: guys in your lineup are just perfectly chosen. They're all
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: in the top ten. You've got the guy leading, and
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: it's coming down the stretch. And so basically like there
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: are other people who have that combination of four players
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: and it's coming down to the last twov two. But
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: in this big giant tournament, it's down to like four guys, right,
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: And so maybe you have let's say sixty three hundred
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: dollars left per player in those last two spots. So
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: you have combinations like Gary Woodland and Sung Jim or JT.
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: Postin and Alex Nordn things of that nature, and you're
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: competing with other teams who have combinations like that, because
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: they're all choosing from the guys down here. If instead
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: you have a combination like Gary Woodland and Sung JM,
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: but you left a lot of money on the table.
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: Now you're competing with that final TWOV two of like
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: see Wu Kim and Tom Kim, or Seawu Kim and
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: Minwu Lee, or Aaron Raye and Harris English. Right, Like,
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: you're bringing in higher quality of players that your twov
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: two has to out beat than they otherwise would, and
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: that just makes it a lot harder, not just because
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: there are more of them, there are so many more
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: combinations that now you could be up against, but because
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: now you're up against literally better players. And so again,
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: like we we get this question a lot, We're going
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: to continue to get it. We're gonna get it in
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: Week one of the NFL season. We're gonna get it
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: for Showdown just about like every single slate and every
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: single time people are making the case. I know that
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: usually it's a bad strategy, but maybe this week it's
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: a good one. And my big, my biggest point is,
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: like number one, none of us are good enough to
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: identify the one slate that it's actually a good strategy.
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: And number two, even if it does work, like there
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: are plenty of other simpler things that you can choose
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: to go on and attack the slate in just a
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: better way.
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: That's my thing. Like you said, they're trying to select,
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: they're trying to like pinpoint and crystal ball the week,
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: the slate, the lineup and the and the move like
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: the one, and this is like the prime one. Like
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: JB's point, here is correct projection wise, especially in median
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: golf projections. Who gives a shit Like you said, you'll
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: lose six points going from Shane Lowry down to sixty
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: nine hundred this week. That leaves a thousand on the table.
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: I get it. But then it's okay, we'll do nine
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: hundred and down. Then it's is okay, you're not playing
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: Shane Lowry, are you picking? Can't lay Reed Matsiyama, Sea
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: Wu min Wu, Tom Kim Griffin, Cam Smith Connors. That's
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: all within nine hundred to eleven hundred dollars. Congrats on
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: the move, not you, JB. Just in general when people
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: do this, and it's most of them are just letting
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: it optimizer doing it, letting it fall into place. I'm
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: just saying it's there's just those moves. Plus Oh, the
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: answer wasn't that. It was actually shit. You were supposed
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: to play lowry, but your got her up pick at
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: eighty five was supposed to drop to Alex Fitzpatrick or
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: Nieman or something where that's where you were supposed to
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: leave the thousand on the table. It's like, oh, like again,
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: you only get what you get, and I understand that,
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: especially with optimizers. But that's one point, my second one,
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: and then we'll move on after. This is a good
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: exercise here. But funny, and I know News knows this,
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: and as he's just making a point, last year's perfect
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: lineup left twenty three hundred the table. You do not
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: want to try and find a way to make the
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: perfect line by leaving money for no reason. Just build
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: accordingly with the dad you have. Yeah, the funny part
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: is so many people would see this statement and say, obviously,
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: that's so stupid to try and build the exact way.
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: If if last year's lineup was this amount of salary,
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: I'm just gonna buld one hundred and fifty line up
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: to that exact salary. No one would do that but
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: funny enough, on just a side note, Well, last week
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: this guy played good at golf, last year at the Open,
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: or the last two Opens, this golfer has been so
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: good and they will use that as like their go
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: to for this week. And it's like kind of the
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: same thing. It's like you wouldn't use it because it's
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: really not valid for this year and this event, but
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: so many people do that in other areas well, Like
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: last week, so and so played good and so and
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: so sucked. There's no way that could flip this week,
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: or it could shout out to the big guy. And
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: then the last one you mentioned, Showdown. This is a
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: spot and I talk about this over at Mastermind all
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: the time, but like the Showdown slates where there's a
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: AM wave advantage on a Saturday round three, Well, it's
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: already down to seventy ish golfers, so you do have
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: a smaller field. You're working with only Zander DECKI play
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: in the morning, so they're gonna be like fifty and
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: forty percent owners owned. That's where I do know where
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: I want to go and why I want to do it.
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: It's like I do want some lineups where I use
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: Xander and Deckie. I want some lines where I use
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: just Xander, no DECKI. I want some lines where I
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: use DECKI and no Xander. But then I want some
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: lineups where I use none of them, because it's just like,
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: if those aren't the two, they all get just eighteen holes.
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: It's any given round whatever. Yes, I might be leaving
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: four or five thousand dollars on the table, depending on
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: how the pricing sets up, but that is a totally
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: different scenario and strategy than what we're talking about here.
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: And it's not over two days, and it's with a
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: shortened pool and so on and so on and so forth,
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: so it's different.
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: It's all I'm saying, Go, Yeah, I really like that
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: point because it ties perfectly into something I wanted to
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: say about, like the optimal lineup landing on you know,
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: a bunch of money left than the table quite frequently.
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: The reason for that is is purely mathematical, and that is,
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: if you look at like the total number of combinations
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: of lineups that you can make that leave less than
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: five hundred dollars on the table, it's like orders and
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: orders and order of magnitude less than the number of
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: possible lineups that leave a lot of money on the table.
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: So yes, probabilistically speaking, the optimal lineup is more likely
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: than not to leave a bunch of money on the table.
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: But that's simply just a numbers game because there are
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: so many more combinations. And that's also like the exact
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: same argument why it works on those wave advantage showdown
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: slates or you know, different course showdown slates like you
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: get early in the season for that exact reason you
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: just mentioned, Like if if all you need for two
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: thousand dollars to be left on the table to be
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: like the optimal route is for literally two expensive guys
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: to not do super well. Okay, that makes it really
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: really likely that like that's going to be you know,
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: a much better strategy that day and in that specific
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: instance than on a main slate in an open championship.
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: When like again, even if you think you know someone
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: made the point that like price doesn't determine how a
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: guy plays, You're right, it does not. But just because
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: you don't think you can do better than like, let's
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: say you're fifty six hundred guy by moving him up
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: to anyone below sixty two hundred. Sure, but that's not
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: the only question for it to be the viable strategy.
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: It's not just that the fifty six undred fifty six
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: hundred guy can't get better. It's that all of the
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: other spots in your lineup also can't get better. And
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: that's just really, really really rare.
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I love that call. I want to bring up
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: I mentioned the Big Guy obviously, you know I've talked
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: a little bit about this on this before, but I
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: do want to point it out. We're just over a
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: month away from the Big Guy event. It is going
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: to be in Las Vegas at the d Casino and Hotel.
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: Will be at Circa for some of the weekend as well,
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: but the event is Friday night, August twenty first, seven
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: thirty to ten thirty. It's at the Detroit Ballroom. We're
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: going to be celebrating James who passed last year, so
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: we want to make sure as many people as possible
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: can get there. The entire DFS community is welcome to
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: join us. We've put this on. We had a big
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: GoFundMe last year, raised a ton of money. Shout up
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: to everybody that put money in. Anybody that put a
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: significant amount got offered an option to get you know, tickets,
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: to this for free. Everybody else we've used that money,
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: we did donation to two different charities of James's choice,
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: and then also we did an additional amount towards this,
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: and then ship a Nation put money up outside of
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: pocket as well to make this happen and make it
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: enjoyable for everybody. If you've come to some of the
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: other events, we did one in Arizona, and we also
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: did one a different one you know, in Detroit, but
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: with less people there, but a big guy was at it.
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: So if you guys want to come out support celebrate James,
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: definitely make sure you get in. If you don't know
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: how to get to the website, it's just ship a
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: Nation dot com slash the Dash Big Dash Guy Dash Event.
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: That's a lot though, so honestly, just add me on
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: x at totag and tambo add me in discord to
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: tag and tambo. I will send you the details, get
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: you set up, make sure you're good to go. There's
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: a couple of different ways that you can get in.
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: There's a fun Burgundy Big Guy collectible that goes with
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: it where you get a shirt and a hat and
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: all that type of thing. So make sure to check
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: that out if you guys can and and come on down.
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: But Alex, let's let's get into it. I'm gonna use
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: the the stone and get into this week. Before we
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: do get this up, do you want to talk a
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: little bit about the course fit and the weather. I
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: think that's gonna be the important part to start on.
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: And then of course the you know, starting on T
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: one and golf all day long and the pockets and
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: all this different stuff that everybody wants to hear about.
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: I'll let you go into weather and the course fit first,
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: and then we'll hop into the optimal lineup and what
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: it looks like for the chalk build this week as
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: we try and predict the most duped lineup of the week. Yeah.
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: So for course fit, the strategy that I took this
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: week was instead of instead of trying to just look
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: at this course specifically, I just kind of looked at
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: all Open Championships tossed out the St. Andrews because Saint
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: Andrew's play so different than the other Open Championship road
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: to courses. So at the Open Championship we get some
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: very clear patterns where like, no matter the venue, they
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: kind of test players in the same way distance matters
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: less than usual outside of St Andrews. Again, accuracy off
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: the team matters more than usual. I think it's important
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: to note that like that stroke skin act driving at
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: Acrecy Metric, it's also capturing decision making skill off the
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: tee and so like someone who's making the wrong choice
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: and taking on these pop bunkers that they shouldn't, that's
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: going to show up in this stat So that's I
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: think part of why the strokes gain driving accuracy status
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: is so incredibly predictive at Open Championships. And then the
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: rest of it is just kind of like, yeah, everything matters.
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: You have to have good all around games, you have
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: to be able to scramble things of that nature, you
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: have to have a good mentality. And to that point,
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: I've also found a lot of predictive value in certain splits.
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: So major Championship performance has been really indicative of Open
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: Championship performance in the future. Performance in windy conditions and
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: performance in difficult scoring conditions are both very predictive of
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: success at the Open Championship. So I've been looking at
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: a lot of that stuff. I will say, like I
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: think one of the one of the most common kind
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: of talking points about this specific Open Championship is that
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: there's going to be a lot of less than driver holes,
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: particularly because of how firm it is. And from a
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: weather standpoint, it looks like, you know, there's gonna be breeze,
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: and the breeze is going to pick up throughout the
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: day for Thursday and Friday, but sun is going to
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: be shining. It's not going to be cold for this
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: area of the world at this time of year. So like, honestly,
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: weather conditions couldn't be better in that regard. I do
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: think in a weird way, like we we often think
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: of like a lack of wind or just a little
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: bit of wind as difficult because when you're into the wind,
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: it then makes it long. But this course is going
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: to be so firm that even when you're into the wind,
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: you're gonna be able to hit the ball a decent length,
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: especially if it's a hole where you can take a
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: driver on the down hole. When the downwind holes I
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: think are actually gonna be the tougher ones because the
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: course is so firm right now, both greens and fairways
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: that stopping the ball is going to be like the
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: biggest challenge of these guys face, and when your downwind,
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: obviously it becomes even that much harder to stop the ball.
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: And so yeah, I think guys who spin the ball
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: a lot coming into greens certainly will have an advantage
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: in that regard. But also it's just like who can
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: do the best job of number one making sure you're
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: making the right decision off the tee and executing the
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: t shot, because no matter who you are, if you
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: are in the rough or off the fairway in any way,
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: you lose control over the golf ball, both spin, trajectory, shape,
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: all that compared to the guys in the fairway. So
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: that's gonna be priority number one. And then just who's
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: the most accurate and who's you know, who's the most
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: dialed with their trajectory and carry distance and all that
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: stuff coming into these greens. So I think it's gonna
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: be an awesome, awesome challenge and everyone is going to
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: struggle at times hitting greens and hitting the correct portion
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: of the greens, and so everyone's also going to be
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: tested from around the green and putting standpoint as well.
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: You kind of touched on this, but is there anyone
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: to add to to this one? From j Fine one
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: three one, it says, with the course being baked out
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: and narrow ish fairways, could this lead to T shots
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: potentially running through fairways. You talked a little bit about
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: that and the ball just running out in the downwind
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: hole and everything there. But it says in the course
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: becoming more of a bomber's track than people are thinking.
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: Maybe to a degree. I think the the number one
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: way where I see distance potentially being an advantage here
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: is because the like the primary goal off of every
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: t is avoid the pot bunkers. Avoid the pot bunkers.
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: And also like these these mounds on the side of
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: the fairways number one, they're really really cool. And number two,
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: because you can get some like really severe sloped lies
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: up slopes, down slopes, left to right, right to left
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: slopes that really adds to the difficulty coming out of
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: the rough and the fescue compared to when you get
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: flat lies and where you know a lot of the time,
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: like in Open championship, sometimes big misses are better than
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: small misses because the big misses go to where everyone's
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: been walking and everything's trampled down. You don't really get
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: that effect here because you're going to be on like
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: a severe slope where all you can do is advance
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: the ball, you know, one hundred yards or something like that.
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: So there that aspect. But I think the primary way
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: the distance can be predictive is there are going to
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: be holes where the number one thing you have to
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: do is avoid pop bunkers. Pop bunkers are kind of
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: all over the place, right, and so if if your
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: distance allows you to eliminate a specific pot bunker because
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: you can carry it over that pomp bunker, okay, that's
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: an advantage. There are also going to be times where
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: like let's say, to clear one pop bunker, you have
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: to carry it to eighty, but there's also another pop
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: bunker at three forty. So a lot of the guys
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: who are able to clear to eighty drivers going to
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: land two ninety three hundred and run out to that
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: three forty pop bunker. So you can't just you know,
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: eliminate either one by by carrying that first one. But
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: a longer guy might be able to hit three wood
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: over that three wood will carry two ninety, but the
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: three wood won't run out to three forty, so you
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: get an advantage that way. So there are potential aspects
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: in certainly certain holes. That distance is going to be predictive,
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: but all in all, I don't think it's going to
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: be anywhere near as important as accuracy and just kind
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: of like overall precision and control of your ball flights.
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that answers it well. I think again, people are
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: gonna be asking a bunch of different stuff like this
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: to try and dial in and we'll talk about you
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: know this one where you know Maddi Fitz definitely could
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: be pushing thirty and like single entry higher dollar stuff.
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: But like in the other stuff, I think we are
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: going to be closer to that twenty twenty five range.
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: We'll see what it actually shakes out. Like Garrett asked
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: about fits Henley and Kims, the Kims we're talking about.
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: I mean I got the fits both Kims and Henley,
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: and it lands on Fleetwood and Bobby Max. So Fleetwood
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: Mac is going to be a thing for sure this
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: week too, And I don't know if that's the best
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: with it, like the main one. We'll talk about that
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: in a second. Did you want to touch I guess
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: we'll save a couple of these. Actually, I'll save a
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: couple four when we get to ways to leverage it.
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: And going through that type of thing. But let's talk
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: about this chalk build. It can be different for sure,
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: Like I can go Bobby Mack and Henley into something
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: like JT and Hobland. I can get Fleet would add
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: of there and just you know, build more balance. What
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: sort of setup are you seeing? These, by the way,
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: are coming in around three fifty five on the This
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: is just a rough draft, right We'll have two different
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: versions up, one right after we get off the show
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: and then one before tonight with the final ownership and
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: everything over at trip a Nation, But just noting it.
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: What are you seeing right now and what would you
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: set it up? Like, let's try and get the most
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: duped lineup.
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: I think this one has a chance to be the
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: most duped. I think there will also be there will
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: also be like iterations where let's say, instead of Tommy,
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: you go to one of the upper nine k guys.
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: So let's let's say Rom and that lets you move
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: Henley to god her up. I believe, and so you
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: know that kind of iteration will will also be super
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: super popular. I think it's actually predicting the most duped
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: lineup is tough because most of the field is trying
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: to avoid dupes and trying to like do something in
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: the lineup that they think makes them different, and the
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: mistake that they make is not considering conditional ownership, which
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: we talk about all the time. So, like your funneled
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: into the same range as everybody else, there's a fifteen
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: percent guy as your last option, or an eight percent
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: guys your last option. You choose the eight percent guy,
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: thinking oh, that'll be the thing that makes me different
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: and not duped, except everyone else had the exact same
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: choice and thought that that was also the decision that
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: would make them less stupid. So it doesn't mean that
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: you can like avoid the dupe by going with the
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: more popular guy. It just means that you have to
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: recognize that with the rest of your build, that player,
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: even though he's eight percent overall, is not going to
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: be eight percent in lineups that are like yours. He's
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: going to be twenty five percent in lineups like yours.
• 38:34
  Speaker 3: So you know, conditional ownership is such such an important
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: thing to think about, and obviously we'll talk even more
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: about it for NFL season, I think, But so like
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: the thing that you have to look for when trying
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: to predict the most jupe lineup is who's who's somebody
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: who fits that mold of Like most people are going
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: to think that this is a decision that makes them
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: a little bit contrarian, but it's actually not, and that's
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: a little bit tougher. I think it would be something
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: like moving off of Tom Kim or Seawou Kim to
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: like a min Wou Lee who's uh just a little
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: bit less chucky than those guys, but it's gonna feel
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: like a pivot, or you know, moving to can't lay instead,
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: or getting up to like a woking neeman but he's
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: still popular and just not as popular as Seawou Tom Kim,
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: that kind of pocket of guy. So uh, that's the
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: kind of thing I would look for if we're if
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: we're literally trying to predict the most jiped lineup, what about.
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: Oh man, it's gonna get flamed. But like, I don't care.
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: I'm saying any of the most disrespectful price in the
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: history of any major championship is Hideki Matsiama at sixty
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: nine hundred. I don't care that Tom Kim won last
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: week and is right there or anything like. It just
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: doesn't make it doesn't like that does not sit right.
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: And again the fact that he's going to be a
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: pivot to those guys and it won't project it. It
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: could be ten I mean, so we got it almost
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: ten points less, so I get it. But man, that
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: is just a crazy price. I know that can't lay
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: is right there and read and it's already soft pricing
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: and speed and all that. I just it doesn't feel
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: right for some reason. It just hits different when it's Hideki.
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: Do you have any thoughts on that one? Because I
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: can't see a world like I think people will play
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: read more. I think they'll play Aaron Rye Moore. I
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: think speech will get a little bit of steam. I
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: know that Seawu, Tom Kim min Wu will all get
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: more love. And then you go down below to like
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: the spawns in the English, Like, how does Hideki eventually
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: get played?
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: I mean within one thousand dollars of Hideki. I think
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: it's basically a guarantee that all of Burns, Henley j
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: t Alex Fitz, Nieman, Raye can't lay read, sea Wu Minwu,
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: Tom Kim jj Spawn, Harris, English, Kurt Kidiyama, maybe even Rayton.
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: All of these guys are going to be higher owned
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: than Hideki, and so yeah, I'm not I wouldn't say
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: that I'm on Hideki this week, but I do think
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: it's sixty nine hundred dollars. He's a very strong play
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: once again.
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's the other thing too, Like again, all
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: these versions, this is where it does get a little
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: bit interesting to me because you talk about like the
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: ownership and how it sets up and people like looking
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: to leave all this money and stuff. It's if you
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: have these three golfers, right, I'm using Tom Kim, Seawoo Kim,
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: and Minmou for those who are listening on podcasts, And yes,
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: I will end up in the same zone if I
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: just slightly change this. But to me, it is quite different.
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: If you go Hideki read and can't lay. It's like
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: those guys all have, you know, much lower ownership across
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: the board. But again, it's not even just about the
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: ownership savings because it's only it's potentially only slight as
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: more things get kept in check now in the higher stakes,
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: smaller field stuff. Seawoo Kim is probably the most disrespected
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: on like the page of projection versus you know, stats
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: versus the year versus. I get that I'm more talking
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: from a personal standpoint. I'm me and Alex have talked
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: about Haideki a bunch of times this season, so I
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: wanted to bring that up. But just noting it this
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: to me is already a way where like you're I'm
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: not leaving any money, I'm actually spending slightly more. I'm
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: spending a couple two round of bucks more. But the
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: point being you can do whatever you want after this
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: and be much different. Even though you almost do have
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: guys in the exact same range, so you could get
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: a similar build, It's it's not the same, but I
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: talked about it a couple of weeks ago. It's like
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: min Wu and Ryan Girard for the same price. As
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: a surprise, surprise, adekis here again. But it was Lowry
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: and Hideki, and Lowry and Hideki beat them on the week,
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: and it was like you could just play the name
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: golfers with the long term status and that, or you
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: could play the projection darlings in Ryan Girardo min Uli
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: for the same money and more ownership. That's the type
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: of thing that I think comes through more and more
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: at major championships. You think back to the Masters, smaller field,
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: different setup. But remember you and I were talking about
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: Speith and Kopka and Max Homa and whoever else, and
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: it was like, yeah, those guys could just show up
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: here though, and the experience matters and all that type
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: of thing. So I just think it's more interesting to
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: think about it from that perspective. If somebody's sitting there
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: on a Saturday morning and let's say Tom Kim misses
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: the cut and they're like, man, the guy that just
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: won last week, like that just tanked me and I
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: could have played Hideki who's sitting top ten right now
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: in all those lineups basically for the the exact same setup,
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: it's a hundred bucks. So I think it's just interesting
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: to think about it from that perspective. Where that goes
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: back to like our you don't need to leave the money,
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: you could just build differently, But what else with the
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: chalk builds, Like I mean, the most common thing is
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: I think you are going to see at least one,
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: if not two, six K guys. You are going to
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: see someone in the ten K and above range. So
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: we can talk about that, or you can answer this
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: question from Bourne Hunter Outdoors, who says for single entryes
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: just skipping over all the ten k guys feel like
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: a total bad idea. This week you usually endorse a
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: little bit of the balanced build I'm seeing again, everybody
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: has different numbers for this, but we're seeing, you know,
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: close to what is it, twenty five ish percent iniquity
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: up above ten k. So with Scotty, Rory Fleetwood, and Fitzpatrick,
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: some would argue there's no inequity with a guy like
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: Tommy Fleetwood, but just noting it and now Scotty missed
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: a cut, he sucks now, right, So what's your thoughts
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: on this question or anything else you want to tie
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: in just to the chalk build there.
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: I definitely don't think it's a bad idea. And so
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: one of the things like we talked about earlier about
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: like ownership concentrating or not concentrating these softer with the
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: soft pricing, it definitely concentrates up top because it's it's
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: so much easier to not just fit any of the
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: expensive guys into your lineup, but it's also easier to
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: fit multiple expensive guys in any lineup because you then
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: can go you know, Barkin Bin hunting in the sixth
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: KR range and like literally find good players. So basically
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: like everyone ninety seven and up, I have over eighteen
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: percent ownership in single entries all but Zander from Ramin
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: up or over twenty three percent in projected ownership for
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: single entries. So yes, I do think there's merit and
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: just skipping that range hoping that you know, a winner
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: comes from the seven K ranger, the AK ranger, the
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: nine K range, and a lot of guys in that
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: range also happened to contend and maybe none of the
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: you know, top six guys finished top five or something
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: like that, and so it's definitely definitely viable. I would say,
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: not only is it not a dumb decision, but it's
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: also I think a pretty smart way to build. The
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: one thing you have to look out for if you're
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: doing that, though, is the eight K range is tiny,
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: right Like you have literally McIntyre, Clark, Hoveland, Bryson got
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: her Up, Morikawa, Hatton, that's the entire eight K range,
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: And so you're also going to see a concentration of
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: ownership around those guys like I think McIntyre, Clark, Hoveland,
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: got her Up, Morikawa will all carry a decent amount
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: of ownership, especially Hoveland and McIntyre. I think are going
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: to be the two most popular in that range.
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: And so.
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: Just because you avoid like the concentration of ownership of
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: top doesn't mean that you're automatically very different from everybody
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: else and you don't need to find a separator within
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: the lineup. You still have to treat the rest of
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: the guys like with with the same kind of ownership
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: awareness as any other lineup.
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, great point. I'm gonna tie it into a couple
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: others because it got mentioned here, like how many separators
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: go into a lineup? Nobody knows. Nobody knows. The answer
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: might be zero of like an actual separator, because like
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: what if you just play you know, here's an example.
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: So of people said this week, I saw it across
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: different sites and acts, and I'm oh, I'm gonna I'm
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: gonna cap my ownership at eighty percent and I'll be
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: way ahead of the field just because of that. Okay,
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: you could have all guys at ten percent or twelve
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: percent in your lineup and none of them are really separators.
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: They're just all that secondary version or tertiary ownership of like, Okay,
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: they didn't make the top ten, but it's because you're
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: It's like you always say, it's not just who you're playing,
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: it's who you're not playing. To someone's point earlier, if
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: I just fade Henley Fits and the Kims, am I
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: different enough? Yeah? You're way different. Most people have at
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: least one of those, and we saw where most a lot,
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: especially in smaller field, will have multiple. If you start
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: your lineup with Xander, cam Young and Clark, again we're
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: going into like semantics because well, well then Xander's my
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: separator kind of yeah, because he's probably the lowest owned.
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: I'm just saying you could have a Xander at thirteen
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: or fourteen percent and it's not really that much of
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: a separator, and you might be able to play all.
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: Imagine Xander cam Young and Wyndham Clark the ten to
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: twelve percent guys is gonna get called a separator. But
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: you could have all the chalk in with this, And
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: that's just a totally different type of build than anybody
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: has if anybody knew the clear number. So when you're
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: putting that in as a thing or trying to make
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: it a thing, you're potentially just ruling yourself out two things. Right.
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: It's like when someone says like, I'm only gonna do
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: this move in football, like I'm only gonna put two
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: wide receivers with every I want two wide receivers with
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: every quarterback. And we've got some research now that maybe
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: I'll tell you might want to do a little bit
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: different than just that. But the point being, it's like,
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: if you do that, that is a great correlation strategy.
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: But if it's a quarterback, a running back and a
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: wide receiver that's needed, you have none of those lineups.
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: You've ruled yourself out of the chance to win that
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: week based on whatever your number of lineups is, and
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: you've went with that strategy. So I would keep that
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: in mind as well, the same thing that goes there.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: And then I will say to this one too, just quickly.
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: You know, not gonna comment on the comment because I
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: don't care that much, but Rory, imagine an espressor that
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: the rough was worse couple of weeks ago because the
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: heat has baked some of it out. It won't be
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: as penal thoughts on that statement. My thoughts are, if
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: you have a portfolio, and maybe you do, if you
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: really think that's the thing, and it's enough to ask
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: the question I love my guy, Timmy Ubbs, but just
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: noting if that's a thing to you, then you better
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: be building lineups with it and against it if it's
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: truly enough and worth it and validated to ask the question.
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: And I know you'll say, well, it kind of matters
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: because how guys are gonna play is gonna matter, right,
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: But if that's how you think it's gonna play, or
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: you think it could be a factor in how people play,
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: then you should have all in lineups on that strategy
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: and all against because you're you're saying that's gonna be
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: what waivers your thoughts at least solve. So to me,
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: it's like that's the type of stuff where I look
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: at it and think, Okay, maybe you should really build
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: some lineups around that. Then anything you want to add
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: on anything there. If not, we can keep it moving.
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I will. Just a word of caution on that one.
• 48:41
  Speaker 3: Less penal can mean different things in this case, Like
• 48:45
  Speaker 3: the one area where it's probably gonna be less penal
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: is like let's say you just roll through the fairway
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: and you're still in a flat area the rough, Sure
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: that'll be less penal. And there's gonna be times where
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: you know, you can land the ball short and bounce
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: it up and you're fine. But let's also remember the
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: big challenge this week is going to be stopping the ball,
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: not getting to the green. So when you're in the
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: rough like that that baked out long rough type stuff
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: that they're describing, that's flyer central. That's when you get
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: the ball that just jumps like crazy, goes way over
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: the green. It doesn't stop. You know, it's going to
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: take a first bounce and then land another fifty or
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: roll another fifty yards whatever. So yeah, that's that can
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: still mean trouble, even though it's easier to advance the
• 49:27
  Speaker 3: ball than it may have been a couple of weeks ago.
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, let's talk a little bit more about
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: being able to sort of leverage this stuff up this week.
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: I think you talked a little bit. One thing you
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: mentioned that was key that I made a you know,
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: slip up on the Mastermind call on Monday night, and
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: right as soon as I saw it, I was like, well,
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: wait a secon. I don't want to use that example.
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: It's a bad one because the eight K range is
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: so small. Like if you make Bobby Mack your last
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: guy in you're duped before you haven't even started, like
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: it's it's over, because it's like it's automatic. There's only
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: so many guys that could fit in that type of build,
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: so you will have to be very careful with these ranges.
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: Even the seven K by the way, and it might
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: be the smallest seven k I've ever seen. I'm pretty
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: sure it is, ever maybe and I'm track I don't
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: fully track it, but like I'm looking at this and
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: tracking it mentally every week, and it's like the same
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: or less or more. I've never really seen it be
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: this small. So you just have to be very careful
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: with the extremely balanced builds unless you have other stuff
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: going for you, or be cognizant of the field size
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: that you're playing it in the you know, in the
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: twenty five dollars million maker, it's a little bit different
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: than the you know, two hundred dollars single entry with
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: two hundred and thirty people or whatever it is. With
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: ten k. Off topic, it's a really nice structure, really
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: good tournament. If most people are going to be using
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: a ten k and up guy in that let's say
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: sixty percent of the field, does that you already put
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: yourself into the forty percent, and then you can get
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: a little bit different with roster construction. If you're going
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: with a pocket stack, or if you're going with something
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: a skill stack that not as many others are on,
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: or something like that, you can probably get away with it.
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: But I do think that's important to think about as well.
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: So lastly, I certainly saw one more question that I
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: thought was good that I want to answer quickly. Was this,
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: don't the answers I don't know because I don't build
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: lineups till Wednesday night, so I actually don't have any
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: clue who's going to be the lowest in yet. But
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: I will get your opinion on this. Alex doesn't have
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: to be a player to answer the question directly, because
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, obviously I'm gonna build tonight. But do you
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: see yourself needing the five K range much as opposed
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: to like six k? Like you said, it's hard to avoid.
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: It's not just Nikolai Hogard at the PGA Championship. It's
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: ten to twelve guys we could talk about right out
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: of the gate, and then in the five k sure
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: gets a little trickier, But do you see yourself going
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: there or needing it? For anything that you're doing.
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: That's exactly how I was gonna answer. It was basically like,
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: there's a huge tear drop. I think below Smally at
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: six thousand dollars, so like Smally, Thorpe, Jornson, Keith Mitchell,
• 51:42
  Speaker 3: Matt Wallace, Gary Woodland, Ryan Gerard, Alex Norin Bridgeman, Kagan,
• 51:48
  Speaker 3: like all those guys in the six k range are
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: legitimate players. We have seen them, either recently or sometime
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: in the past perform well in a major championship. Once
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: you go below that, it gets pretty pretty thin, and
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: so I would say low six k's and I would
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: probably only have one low six k guy as the
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: as the lowest guy in there.
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, no, it's good. I thought it was just
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: worth chatting about. I'm thinking too, like our man Stump.
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: Shout out to Stump. He said some interesting course fit
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: guys from Deep World Tour. He's saying in the five
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: k range. I agree, but I think if you're doing it,
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: it's good to like pick your poison. I think I
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: saw something Byron posted at Model Maniac last night about
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: like Sam Steven's not missing any cuts. He's not Deep
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: World Tour obviously, but at fifty seven hundred. He's a
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: projection darling that sometimes will show up. So if like
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: somebody landed there and he started doing well, I get it.
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: It's I'm not gonna pick that out specifically. John Perry
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: is a guy down there that I sometimes play. But
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: you know, there's a few guys down there. But it's
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: like same thing as we talked about earlier, like being
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: the expert at getting that right versus just sort of
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: letting them fall into your pool based on the ones
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: you select. I would grab a handful if you're gonna
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: do it for your one fifth and make your stand
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: so that you get the ones you want as opposed
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: to what it just gives you. Because if you truly do,
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: like let's say Stump says, you know, I like Scott Vincent,
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: I like Sam Stevens, and I like Daniel Brown, Okay,
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: then that three should get put into your playerpool. You
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: can put a mid max on them if you want it,
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: or something that's gonna make sure bump their projection enough
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: that they start getting into some builds if you're using
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: contest SAMs or something like that, so you can get
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: proper rois and stuff related to it. But I would say,
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: once you put that in, you could look at it
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: as look, at least I got some of my guys
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: quote unquote, my guys in the five K range. And
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: if I'm right, hopefully I'm all the way right. If
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: I'm wrong, at least I played the guys that I
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: wanted down there. So if you're doing it, I think
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: that's how I would do it, especially for as Stump
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: followed up with, here definitely more of the MM approach
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: to grab some five K guys. I agree like that
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: that could be the way to do it. There other
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: ways to leverage this week, Alex, We're gonna get to
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: our leverage lane later. We'll have the one and done segment,
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: the betting breakdown. I know you got a few more
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: bets this week, so you might be selective of what
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: you toss out there. But from the other ways to
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: leverage this Like we didn't have a big Scotty conversation,
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: but Scotty missed the cut last week. Again, nobody cares,
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: But first of all, we were right on that, Like,
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: nobody was playing Scotty last week when he did miss
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: the cut. It's funny how that works. The guy that's
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: super chalk always has his best week when he's super chok.
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: The guy's like, oh, nobody played Scotti the week he
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: finally misses the cut. And I don't mean nobody specit
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: like exactly, but you know what I mean. It was
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: a much lower than anybody expected. He actually shook up
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: ownership projections a little bit last week because nobody really
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: suspected him that low. But people were done with him
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: it just in the sense of done building lineups with
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: him because you have to consider everything with it and
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: it just wasn't ideal last week. This week totally different.
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: I loved your call out earlier. I think it's so
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: true and it doesn't even involve the five K range,
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: but it's people even when they make the decision, like
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: guys so the sudden, you know what, I'm gonna go
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: with what Tambo said. I like Pideki here. I'm a
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: little bit different than these guys. Everybody wanted Chakara last week.
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: I'm saying what they might say. I'm just sort of something.
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna go Chakara and another guy I really like.
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: It feels like nobody's talking about him. But Adam Scott Yo,
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: he could play good over here all right, I've got
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: ten grand left almost let me go plug Scotty in.
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: So that becomes the thing. I'm just giving you the
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: example of how it happens, not about who you'd put
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: in or the build. But that's to your point earlier.
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: When people are just thinking about it, they're not just
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: always going to go to automatic of fleetwood fits and
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: wherever they land. They're going to look at it and say, well,
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: what does Scotty do here? Oh man, I could still
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: get to somebody in this range and go from there.
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: But any other thoughts on the Scotty topic.
• 55:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's worth kind of like building out
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: what the truck Scotty lineup looks like. Because so here's
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: here's another way to think of it. If you put
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: Scotty in the line if your love with seven three
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: hundred and forty dollars per player remaining, there are twenty
• 55:44
  Speaker 3: two players in the entire field over that price. There
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: are twenty one non Scotty guys over that price. So
• 55:51
  Speaker 3: it's it's just so easy to do, Like, there are
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: so many different combinations that you can play. But obviously
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: once you pick Scotty, Sea Wu Tom Kim Min Wou, Yeah,
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: I think.
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: This is a it. I mean that's why I said
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: when I said earlier, when you asked me, the question
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: wasn't about congested. It's like it's almost like I was
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: trying to say congested builds, like to your point. I mean,
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: I love your point. This year, there was like one
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: thing that you said this whole season that I just
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: it sticks with me every week that I want to
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: talk about it. For anybody who hasn't heard it is
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: when people try and be like, yeah, but I got
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: a two v two off of that and I'm different,
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: and it's like, no, you're not. You have a four.
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: You have a four v four that's the same. That's
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: your problem. You're not in a good spot because you're
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: two v two different. You're in a bad spot because
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: you're four v four the same. There is a bunch
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: of renditions we could work through off of this to
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: say like, oh, that's not technically it, or I think
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: someone will do this instead. Sure, but when I see
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: can it's almost like Alex back to NFL again and
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: showdown for that matter. But when we know Sunday Night
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: Football was a five to one smash, and it's like, Okay,
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: Sunday Night no one was on five to one five one,
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: no one in the sense of like very little of
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: the feel. Let's say it was eight percent on five
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: ones and we had an overweight stands but it still
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: didn't work out. But then five to one hammers it.
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: What happens on Monday, It's like the Eagles, I'll use
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: your team at home. They're seven and a half point
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: favorites against the team. It's like, oh, okay, could be this,
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: could be that, but it's just a thing. But all
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: of a sudden, five ones are super owned compared to
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: the night before. It's like they're up to twenty one
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: percent of the field is now on five ones because
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: there's all the residue from the night before and then
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: trickling over, and then also the stuff people saying, well,
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: plus they're at home, plus they're almost eight point favorites,
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: like plus Barkley and Hurts, and I get all that.
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: That's what I mean by congesting. You said build the
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: Scotty build. It was like two seconds. I don't know
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: if it's exact, but it's got to be close, very close.
• 57:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I would almost say that I think this is
• 57:35
  Speaker 3: where the most duped lineup is gonna come in, because
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: so like, we have this exact lineup, so let's go
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: Tom Kim. I'm just putting it in myself so I
• 57:44
  Speaker 3: can see this exact thing. So I'm gonna put MacIntyre
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: instead of Henley. Everything else will be the same, except
• 57:52
  Speaker 3: then min Wu becomes sixty seven as the last guy in,
• 58:00
  Speaker 3: and so now like someone's going to look at this
• 58:03
  Speaker 3: and say, oh, I can go jj Spawn or Harris English,
• 58:07
  Speaker 3: and he's less than ten percent and that makes me
• 58:09
  Speaker 3: different except everyone else who had this like very straightforward
• 58:14
  Speaker 3: first five in Scottie, Tom Kim, McIntyre, Hoblin Seawoo Kim.
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: That's a super super straightforward start lands on that exact
• 58:21
  Speaker 3: number sixty seven hundred. So whether you're choosing Spawn or
• 58:24
  Speaker 3: Harris English, that conditional ownership is going to be massive
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: for this kind of a start. So I think this
• 58:30
  Speaker 3: will be the most duped lineup, and it's got like
• 58:33
  Speaker 3: all the ingredients of the most dupe lineup. And the
• 58:35
  Speaker 3: last thing I want to say is I'm seeing birthday
• 58:38
  Speaker 3: narrative discussion in the chat. I just I want to
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: I hate it. I hate it so much. So Stump
• 58:44
  Speaker 3: knows that he's doing it on purpose to annoy me.
• 58:47
  Speaker 3: But there are some others in there who I think
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: are are really on the birthday narrative. God, it has
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: nothing to do with success. If playing good golf was
• 58:55
  Speaker 3: as easy as wanting to play good golf, than everyone
• 58:57
  Speaker 3: would play good golf all the time.
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: That's what I was. I just if we get pinpoint
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: to be so like I said, I mean, there's people
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: that are doing golf betting and I get it betting outrights,
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: and they're doing it accordingly. They're being very responsible, they
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: have bankroll management. They're saying, I'm betting six seven guys
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: this week and I'm gonna I'm gonna win seven to
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: one when I win, And that's great, but you need
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: to hit seven of those. So it's like that, why
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: are they not hitting seven winners on the season, or
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: you don't even see three or four. It's like it's
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: because it's hard. Golf betting is hard. They get to
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: pick seven within a skill set, within a course, within
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: a price package, like it's all legit, But I'm saying
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: it's very hard to get it correct. If we knew
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: how to do that, you know, that would be a
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: lot easier to win a lot more money. It's like,
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: at the end of the day, we're playing a game
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: here and I like, go collects that this is leverage lane,
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: not narrative street. Yeah, that's for sure. And nothing gets
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: the chat fired up more than if you say Eagles,
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: Cowboys or Giants, like any of those three teams. Man,
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: And it's crazy. It's the you know, you can't say
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: a bad word about them because it's like that's how
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: it goes.
• 59:54
  Speaker 3: But by the way, yeah, fun fact. I share a
• 59:58
  Speaker 3: birthday with Adam Scott.
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: So oh, okay, birthday, your birthdays tomorrow. Yes it is wow,
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: happy early birthday. Everybody in the chack at Alec's a
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: happy birthday and leave a comment for him. But that's amazing, man.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: So how old? How old are you turning now?
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 3: Thirty four?
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: I young.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 3: If there's if there's a birthday narrative that I want
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 3: to be true, it's that you win on your birthday
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 3: in DFS. I don't think it's a real thing, but
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 3: if there is one, I hope it's that one.
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: Well that's the problem then, though, because you can't win
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: it on Thursday and let beside your showdown slates, But
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: what are you gonna winrow in DFS. Yeah.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and not only that, but there's there's not even
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 3: MLB to play, so yeah, you're in big trouble.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: So let's go. Uh, I'll give you one. My anniversary
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: is on Sunday, and I want the annivers you win
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: on your anniversary to be true for a million, You
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: win a million dollars on your anniversary to be true,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: and then you take that million dollars to the Fantasy
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: Golf World Championship with you next week and win another
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: million dollars. That's the narrative that I'm wishing for and
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: I want to be true. We all have these crystal
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: balls out there, like we said, so if we can
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: make it happen, let's make it happen. That'd be great. Yeah.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: I do think that one of the like potentially coolest
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 3: sports stories of all time is if England were to
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 3: win the World Cup on the same day that an
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 3: Englishman wins the Open Championship for the first time in
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 3: that many years, Like that would be truly one of
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: the best sports days in the history of the world.
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 3: So that would be very cool. It doesn't mean that
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna go play English guys, because that has no
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 3: effect on it. It would just be a cool outcome.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: And that's okay.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: What about what's the other one this week? Corrales?
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 3: Something like that?
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, what about MESSI wins another one on the way
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: out and Toasty wins the Corrales? There you go, which
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: which you think pays more? I mean we got not.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: I mean there's no baseball today, right, we got at
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: least a minute to bur I know, you got to go,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: but I Toasty has to play more? Okay, inglad man,
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: I wish I could pull this up quickly. Could somebody
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: do this for us just so we can keep on
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: with the show. I want to see England to win
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: the World Cup, parlay and do it with Fleetwood? We want.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: I know Rose fits it, but let's do Fleetwood because
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: it's hometown. Like that would be the crazier of the thing.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man, I mean Rose has been Rose
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 3: has been hunting this this for a while. And if
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 3: you if you parlay with Rose, then you at least
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 3: have the chance to win. But but what about people
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: are gonna say fits too?
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: Obviously? What about imagine not playing Harris English? But he's
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: he's not He's not European, He's American. But just saying
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: like you can get that angle too. But just going
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: from this, I want to know what England with Aaron
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: you hook us up? Man? What is England to win
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: the World Cup with these three each pay? And then
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: somebody get me Argentina to win the World Cup with
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: Toasty at the corrals. That's what I want to see.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 3: I want to know England with Matt Wallace.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: Oh that's a good one. What what about Spain with Ram.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah that's a good one too.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: That could be it? All right, one other thing, Okay,
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: so I'll go back here too. Is there any chance
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: I just want to ask you this? I don't think
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: there is. We talk about this all the time of like,
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: you know, how everyone gets ownership and what that means,
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: but then some get more than others. It's it is
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: thirteen three Scotty with a five K range, So it
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: is like last year. That's why I do think. And
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 2: we talked about the handbuilds and we already agree that
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: kind of like these numbers might be something. We talked
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: about fits and especially in higher stake, smaller field stuff.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: We talked a little bit about Fleetwood and the hometown
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: narrative and all that. I know Rory's still gonna get ownership,
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: but is there just any chance at all at eleven
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: nine that now he's kind of the guy that's just
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: squeezed in the middle of those and it ends up
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: being that he's more like fourteen fifteen or something.
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 3: Is that possible here, Yeah, It's definitely possible if it happens.
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 3: I think what we would say is like Scotty got
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 3: to thirty five or forty, Tommy Fitzpatrick, rom that group
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 3: like all got to thirty or just averaged thirty or
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 3: something like that, And yeah, that would make Rory down
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 3: at like thirteen fourteen percent something like that. It's probably
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 3: his lower bound for ownership. But but yeah, I think
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 3: that's that's like, that's really really in play, and I
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 3: would say it's more likely that Rory falls that far
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 3: then he's the one who steams up to like thirty
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 3: five percent.
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: Agree, definitely think that is a good call. Our man,
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: Scooter got the rose one out early. So at one
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: hundred and sixty seven, Oh man, Toasty Argentina, pop that
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: sucker in baby, that thing's going to the moon. That
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: could actually hit I mean that's very possible. So could
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: the England Ones. Obviously England. This one's nice too. I
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: do like that Wallace call, by the way, it's not
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: even like a picks thing. I just think he's a guy.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: I like he actually cost me big last week. I
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: had a really nice five or six with Matt Wallace
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: and he was seventy three hundred. I think last week
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: now he's plus seventy thousand, three hundred to go with
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: England to win. And I don't know. Everyone thought France
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: was gonna win yesterday and got crushed by Spain. So
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: I think a lot of people are in on Messi today,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: but they're kind of I think they're still the underdog.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: So it's not like the public is but just de
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: noted defending champions from last year. I think is interesting
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: as well. But why people are thinking that there was
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: something else this is Wes. We did talk about this, Wes.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: The logic is that even if you built your whole
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty pool, you're going against millions of
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: lineups of what the optimal might actually be, and like
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: you're one fifty, just because you built in that price range,
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: you could be in the ninety fifth to one hundred
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: to ninety nine percentile out your lineups are shitty at
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: the end of the week. Obviously, it could be the
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: other way. I'm just saying you're going in up against
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: such a large situation, you won't need the optimal to win.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: It could be like fifty to one hundred point gap
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: on what the actual winning lineup is versus the optimal.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, we already answered this, but I'll reiterate
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: the point because I think it's an important one. The
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 3: reason why you see optimal builds sub forty nine K
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 3: as often as you do is not because they're likely
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 3: to happen or that you're likely to be able to
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 3: find the right one. It's because if you look at
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 3: all possible combinations of lineups, any combination of six players
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: that works, you're going to see like orders and orders
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 3: of magnitudes Like I'm not talking hundreds, more like tens,
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 3: hundreds of thousands, more combinations of lineups that leave that
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 3: much on the table than lineups that don't. That's the
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 3: only reason why you see that many optimals come up come,
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 3: you know, with with a thousand dollars or more left
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 3: on the table. It's just math, but it doesn't affect
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 3: what is right for us in any way, shape or form.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 3: What the data that we have like that actually shows
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 3: what lineups are good strategies, what lineups are bad strategies,
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 3: show very very clearly that leaving five hundred dollars or
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 3: more on the table is a losing strategy. By doing it,
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 3: you are less likely to get into the top one
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: percent of the top ten percent of lineups than if
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 3: you just randomized a lineup that left less than five
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 3: hundred on the table. It's just a losing strategy like
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 3: through and through.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, good, good, good summary. Again, I brought I want
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: to up another one on I'm gonna save another one
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: where I leverage lane. But do you have anything else
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: that you want to touch? I think we kind of
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: inverse handled it this week of things like the overbalanced
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: lineup can't work like it can sue. The other stuff
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: obviously could happen anything as possible. Kevin Garnett dot jiff
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: I talk about that all the time, but it's not
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: what I'd be wanting to play in these tournaments. So
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: I think it's like, you know, the other thought process
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: is somebody brought it up earlier. It is like if
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: you go to a lineup of like, let's say you talked.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 3: About where is he here? Now?
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: What's his price this week? Keith.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 3: One interesting note I'll make, like on the the overbalanced
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 3: lineup is like, if you remember my Master's leverage lane
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 3: was doing exactly that, it was making Seawou Kim, who
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 3: I think was seventy seven hundred dollars my cheapest guy
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 3: I plugged in my master's lineup, it leaves like thirty
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 3: five hundred dollars on the table. So you know, we
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 3: really do have significantly self pricing than what we had
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 3: for the Masters, even though the Masters was already really
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 3: soft pricing.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think one thing I wanted to point out
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: was just like if you've had two guys in the
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: lower six, it's you can almost do anything now because
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: this is where like again, how many people will have
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: Sea Wu as their fourth guy in right for an example,
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: and you still have over ten thousand as a play
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: and you don't have to pick your own poison. I know,
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: you know the boys are messing with you about like
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: Keith Mitchell, and you know whatever, even if you actually
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: do like my point being, it's like there's other think
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: about these types of setups where it's like, okay, people
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: are playing Sea Wu, but mostly as a fifth or
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: a sixth golfer. I'm gonna play him as my fourth
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: or I'll actually play him as my you know, chalk
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: version for sure. And then it goes Scotty in there.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: And but again, how many people a gonna have these
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: two percenters at the bottom play both those and something else?
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: And it could be Rory and whatever. And I'm just
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: using Sea Wou and Tom Kim as examples, but my
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: point would be there's also taking those two out of it,
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: playing down this way and then doing something out. Now,
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: this is where like a Okay, I'm gonna eat the
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: shock on Maddy Fits, but I'm not going to play Henley,
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: Tom Kim, Min Wu or Sea Wu or Hoveland, to
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 2: be honest. And I've got three spots left, and I'm
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: gonna pepper the upper eight k's and the lower nines
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: or just the lower nines and land on that. It's like, yes,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: there's only so many versions of that, but also not
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: really because you could have a different opinion than Mitchell
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: and Wallace at the bottom. They're two percent on guys.
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: There's so many two percent on guys down there, so
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: it's like just another example. And then obviously if you
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: wanted to put a Rory into this, it would leave
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: you in the mid eights and you could still go
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: nines and sevens or something and do it that way.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: If you wanted to go rom right and you had
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: a couple of these guys Rom Ludwig, you still have
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: ninety three hundred now, you could start making some decisions
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: that way. So these are part of the quote unquote
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: all star builds that if you do just get your
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: stuff down low right, and I picked Mitchell and Wallace
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: for you, it could be someone totally different. But I'm
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: just gonna use like projections for the basis of it. Yeah,
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: Kidiama and Keegan, they're still projected decent and they're still
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: super low owned. They just can't get enough ownership, and
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: they still the unique style of build. So it's just
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: an example to show again of like just making some
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: of those slight moves don't just move you off the
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: chalk and leverage that upper six k range, but it
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: also could leverage the type of build that you're on
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: and that your overall construction is different because of that.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and to the earlier conversation, like when you do
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 3: that sort of thing. Make sure you're using most of
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 3: the salary so that your combination of Wallace and Mitchell
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 3: doesn't have to go beat combinations that include see what
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 3: Kim and Minu Lee or Tom Kim and that group.
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 3: So yeah, just kind of tying all those conversations together, Timbill,
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 3: can you highlight the comment below the one that's currently highlighted.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but I would say happy birthday to you, happy
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: birthday to Scott, and happy birthday to Adam Scott, and
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: happy birthday to Will Ferrell. Man what I say? That'd
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: be a golf forslam right there, you Scott Draz, Adam Scott,
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: and Will Ferrell out on the course. I love it
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: all right, you want this one?
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 3: Yes, So there are a couple of things here. First
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 3: of all, like I don't expect this to be you
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 3: know this is this is like one of the harder
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 3: concepts to really explain. Well, just here live so you know,
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 3: this is the kind of thing that if you're really
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 3: interested in learning more about, it's a great kind of
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 3: thing to join Mastermind for, to join my discord for.
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 3: But the first thing is if you're in an MME contest, Yes,
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 3: everyone is trying to be different, but they are also
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 3: going to be people who don't know how to set
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 3: you know, player groups correctly or have a sort of
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 3: filter where they're going to get some just pure chalk lineups,
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 3: and that's going to be duped. If you're in a
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 3: single entry kind of contest where everyone is handbuilding instead
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 3: of using an optimizer, you might be able to use
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 3: this kind of a this kind of logic where you're saying, well,
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 3: everyone's trying to be different, so if I just play
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 3: all of the truck in the most obvious lineup, no
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 3: one else is going to have that because everyone else
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 3: is going to try to pivot at least one player.
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 3: You might be able to avoid a dupe this way,
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 3: But even if you do, all of your conditional ownerships
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 3: are through the roof. You have no unique combinations of players.
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 3: You have no way to separate outside of the one
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 3: route where literally all six of your guys do really
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 3: really well. So even though you might not be duped,
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 3: you don't have any potential separation, and so that would
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 3: still be a really really like losing strategy.
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, if you guys do want to check out Mastermind,
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: to Alex's point there, you can go to DFS mastermind
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: dot com. It talks a ton about what we've talked
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: about here on the show today and just finding your
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: actual process. But the main thing is you could start
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: for as little as forty seven bucks, right, you get
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: the seven hours of the mymap modules. And really the
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: way I frame that up Alex for people is just like,
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: if you think about it, we've spent thousands of hours
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: working on these things so that somebody else can go
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: in and take, you know, seven hours of their life.
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: It's less than a nine to five shift to go
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: get seven hours of the combination. So go to dfsmastermind
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: dot com. You can start with that. It counts towards
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: your upgrade if you want full community access, so check
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: that out. If you want to go to ship Nation,
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: the all access special is forty nine dollars. And before
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 2: we get to one and done and all that, now,
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: let the people know just a little we're what we're doing,
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: the marketing, what you've got going on this week for
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: your discord FTN, anything else you what going on that
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: you want to talk about, and then we'll get to
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: the one and done segment.
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the biggest thing is what I announced last week,
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 3: just kind of going to hit this every single week
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 3: until NFL season. Ownership projections, my projections, GPP scores are
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 3: all going to be available in my discord for the
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 3: NFL season. Prices are going to go up, but if
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 3: you get locked in, if you become a subscriber before September,
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 3: you are locked in forever to the price that it
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 3: is currently at. So make sure you take advantage of
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 3: that and use promo code leverage because you get ten
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 3: percent off forever on top of that, So lots and
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 3: lots of future savings available if you get in now,
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 3: and obviously, like what better time to do that than
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 3: Open Championship week for sure.
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't say enough good things about it. So
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: if you guys aren't in there, go check that out.
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: If you have any questions on any of this stuff,
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: The Big Guy Event mastermind Alex's discord, you want to
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: reach out to either of us myself at TOTEG and
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: Tambo follow Alex like you mentioned over on X but
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: let's talk about the one and done. We're wrapping up
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: the season, right, We're getting close to the end here now,
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: so it is tricky when it comes to you know,
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: everybody's different, so let's just talk about ours because it's
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 2: whatever people can take away from the conversation I think
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: is important more than like they're all in different places.
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: If you guys have questions, you could throw them in
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: and maybe it's a good talking point, but we're way behind.
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: What would you say to somebody and what are we
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: saying to ourselves when you're that far behind you You
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: got to go off the board now, Like, there's just
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: no benefit to getting the four million dollar win from
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: Hatton this week if he wins, because it's like it
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: doesn't even do it, that's going to be the most
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: owned he's been all season. This is the place people
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: are wanting to use them or saved him for.
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, so a couple of things like number
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 3: one at the top. Most of these guys are going
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 3: to be pretty low at this point because like Scott,
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 3: he's only available in five percent of teams, Rory twenty
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 3: four percent, Fits nineteen percent, Cam Young twenty four percent,
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 3: So no one can be super popular up here, so
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 3: you have that to your advantage. I think the most
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 3: important thing I would say is if you're not trying
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 3: to get off the board and be like really contrarion
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 3: the other way to do it is to pick players
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 3: who have already won this year, particularly in big events.
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 3: So like Rory won the Masters, right, got her up
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 3: his multiple wins, Cam Young has multiple wins. If you
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 3: take these guys and they win the the people who
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 3: have them alongside of you are other people who didn't
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 3: have them earlier in the season. So those who had
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 3: them early in the season can't possibly be on those guys.
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 3: You can make up ground that way as well. And
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 3: so from that perspective, Tambo, we have Rory remaining, I
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 3: think he's where I would go our next best player.
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 3: We could go win them. What's Rory's option?
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: I missed Rory's percentage he was.
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 3: He's available in twenty four percent of teams, Yeah, which.
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: I think is fine and also I think interesting because again,
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: like when you said, like fits is available in nineteen percent,
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: like that kind of just get jammed this week, Like
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: he might not be nineteen percent, but I'm saying he's
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: going to be up there. What's Hatton's availability high?
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 3: Uh, yeah, it's gonna be. It's gonna be very high
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 3: since obviously you can't use him very often. Sixty eight percent.
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So I mean he's getting used to us, So
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 2: that's hard, Like it's funny because people are well, I
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: still feel like too many people will have Rory. It's
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: like probably not like it's like it's a fair number, sure,
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: but it's like we still want a guy that can
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: win and we want the money. So it's like I'd
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: be fine with Rory. What's Wyndhams percentage?
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 3: Windhams is sixty three percent?
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: Okay, so that's interesting. And then what is Rom? Somebody
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: else made that? I think you know again, we probably
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: petty right, Rom had a done good last week, it
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: would have carried over. But what is he?
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 3: Oh, actually thirty nine percent?
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so Rom hattin and fits alone, and then whenever
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: people have left on Fleetwood and so on, it's over.
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: So I actually don't mind Rory at all. I think
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: that's fine.
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I think he'll be I think he'll be
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 3: pretty controlling. I think that's the way to kind of
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 3: think through this, regardless of how you've done this season,
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 3: is just who can you go to that actually gives
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 3: you like a chance to really go up the board
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 3: because the other thing is we're way behind. It doesn't
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 3: help to just be different. We have to be different.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 3: And right, Rory at least gives us a pretty good
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 3: chance of getting that win. And I don't think he
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 3: can be more than like seven eight percent, given how
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 3: many people still have him. And and you know, the
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 3: prevailing narrative this week is that it's not a bomber's course,
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 3: it's it's a lesson driver course that in theory, you know,
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 3: hurts Rory. So again, I think he's a pretty solid
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 3: choice for sure.
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that call was super sharp this season two from
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: you about again, we sowd a lot of season left
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 2: for us. But it's just noting it like the the
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: one of an ownership comments of like it's like, oh,
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: this is a positional course, Like nobody plays a bomber
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: and then you just get there at like a five
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: percent guy and they're going out and crushing it or something.
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: So it's like there's so many other things to it
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: that you can do. But that really does seem to
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: move the needle when it comes to ownership. All right,
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: let's talk about betting breakdown. I know you threw a
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: bunch out there this week, something you feel good about.
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: You don't have to give them all, obviously, that's what
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: your discord is for but maybe pick one or two
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: if you've got it, and talk through it a little bit,
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: and then we'll get to the leverage lane for.
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 3: Us at the end. You know all of them, do
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 3: you do you have one that you would like me
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 3: to talk through.
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll get you to do it because you brought
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: it up earlier. So there was a reason why you
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: clearly said England and Matt Wallace. Yes, I think you
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: can use that to you know, the advantage of saying
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: like that, where you got a lot of information that
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: you're probably using for there's a lot of good stuff
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: on those charts, So maybe talk about the Matt Wallace one.
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 2: And you went pretty aggressive with it, meaning like you
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 2: went on a lot of different angles to make money
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: on this and really make money if you get it right.
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: So go ahead.
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I did a ladder bet on Wallace, so top forty,
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 3: top twenty, and then a couple each ways as well.
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 3: For the for the outright, it starts with like the
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 3: basically the entire modeling process that I use all points
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 3: in Matt Wallace. So first thing we're doing is we're
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 3: using course fit to create expect us for stain projections.
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 3: We also create you know, an estimated event to event
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 3: volatility and event and round to round volatility, so we
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 3: can simulate the tournament and that gives us a win
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 3: rate in things of that nature. So from that Wallace
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 3: already looks really good because number one, he's really volatile,
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 3: and number two he's been very good when in contention
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 3: a few times he's been in contention, and actually number three, like,
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 3: you can make a very strong case that this is
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 3: the best form his approach play has ever been in
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 3: in his entire career. It's been extremely strong. Four of
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 3: his last six events he has had the type of
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 3: iron play spike that can win golf tournaments, including stacked
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 3: fields like this one like a major championship. So from
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 3: just a pure modeling standpoint, he already rates out as
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 3: one of the better bets of the week, both from
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 3: an outright perspective and top twenty and top forty where
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 3: things get really really cool. Here is as I mentioned earlier,
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 3: like I found three predictive splits for the Open Championship,
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 3: performance in major championships, performance in winning conditions, performance in
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 3: difficult conditions. His wind splits are pretty good, but I
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 3: want to focus instead on major championships and the difficult
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 3: condition splits majors, he's been quite good. He he hasn't
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 3: been in contention a lot, but he performs over his baseline.
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 3: He gains strokes a lot more often than he usually does. Typically,
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 3: he gained strokes in fifty four percent of his rounds.
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 3: In major championships, he's gained strokes in sixty four percent
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 3: of his rounds, so that's nice. He also, you know,
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 3: in major championships, has done a pretty good job of
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 3: Actually he's neutral in both spike rate what I call
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 3: boom rate and blow up rate. So how often are
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 3: you gaining I think it's like three point three and
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 3: one and losing one point seven strokes. Those numbers were
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 3: data drived, so I don't remember the exact numbers, but
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 3: point being plays really well in major championships compared to
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 3: his own baseline, which is the way that I like
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 3: to do these types of splits analysis in difficult conditions.
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 3: He's a rock star. His strokes gained above expectation differential
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 3: is the highest in the field at point five to
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 3: seven strokes per round. That's slightly better than Scott Scheffler's
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 3: point five to six per rounds. So we know difficult
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 3: conditions often helps the best players separate from the worst players,
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 3: but Wallace it also just makes him a much better
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 3: player because think of like who he's been throughout his career,
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 3: right He's he's a bulldog scrambler type. So the more
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 3: holes where par is a good score, the better for
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 3: Matt Wallace. I think that's like the driving force behind
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 3: this split. He's gaining strokes in sixty nine percent of
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 3: his rounds in difficult conditions. For context, players who gained
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 3: strokes in sixty nine percent of their rounds in general.
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 3: Let's rip off some names here, Terrell, Hatton, Ludwig Oberg,
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 3: Colin Morikawa, Bryson, Victor Hovlin, Lowry, Sam Burns, Russell, Henley,
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 3: Patrick Reid, Like that's Hideki Matsiama. That's the quality of
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 3: player that gains as often as Matt Wallace gains when
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 3: he's playing in difficult conditions. So you add those splits
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 3: on top of the fact that the model already thinks that, hey,
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 3: he's a good bet based on just like who he
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 3: is in the form that he's in right now, he
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 3: becomes a really really intriguing bet across the board. And
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 3: also at one percent of pretty interesting DFS play at
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 3: sixty three hundred, probably not quite as good of a
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 3: DFS play as a bet because the pricing makes it
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 3: so like Matt Wallace probably belongs at this type of price.
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 3: If if everyone was priced where they quote unquote belong,
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 3: I would say, look, Matt Wallace is one of the
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 3: best players on the slate, but because he's kind of
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 3: priced where he belongs, and you can just go up
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 3: two hundred dollars, three hundred dollars, five hundred dollars for
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 3: guys who are like two thousand dollars underpriced. Sure, Matt
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 3: Wallace is not as good of a DFS play as
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 3: he is a bet, but still interested to some degree
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 3: there for sure.
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I was gonna ask you too, because
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: it's like, you know, in you know your Hoguard guy
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: this season, like Nikolai Hogard, where it's like sixty six hundred,
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: he's only three hundred bucks more, but would you like
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: him more in DFS? And you're saying, like, again, Wallas
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 2: obviously a top forty does well and could play and
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: make the cut and all that matters, But it's from
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: the betting perspective that you really like him, and that's
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: where the latter and all that came from. But there's
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: just guys right there slightly more well.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and to that point, like Wallace at sixty three
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 3: hundred you can get at one hundred and seventy five
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 3: to one, You go up five hundred dollars to Tom
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 3: Kim and his odds are fifty five to one. So
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 3: you know, the the betting market shows that these guys
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 3: in the six k range are just priced in in
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 3: a spot where they have no business being priced. The
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 3: outright market does a better job of kind of showing
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 3: where everyone should be, and it shows that some of
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 3: these like six k guys should be in the eight ks.
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 3: Wallace maybe should be sixty five hundred intead of sixty
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 3: three hundred or something like that. So yeah, certainly not
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 3: as good of a DFS play as an outright bat
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 3: and as a top forty bat and top twenty bet
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 3: but I do still have interest in him. Like if
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 3: if you see my lineup come Thursday morning and Matt
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 3: Wallace is in there, you shouldn't be shocked. It's just
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 3: like all around. You know. That's that's predicated on the
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 3: fact that I think will be one percent if he
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 3: were five percent, I'd be playing like any of these
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 3: other six k guys instead.
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: Back to the one and done conversation, relide for a
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: second take. Bryson first made cut and goes all the
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: way after Bright. The last time Brandell called out somebody
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 2: like this, wasn't it when Brooks went on to win
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: the major and put the clown nose.
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 3: On him maybe back in the day and then, But
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 3: brand was called out Bryson every major so far this
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 3: year as well, and so it hasn't helped him yet, said.
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 2: He's chasing Grand Horvat and not Rory and Scottie, so
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: so good. Yeah, pretty solid stuff, man. Brandal's like, you know,
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: Stephen a Smith kind of, but it's like at least
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: he just makes takes.
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 3: He's Stephen a Smith in the sense that like he
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 3: likes to say provocative things, but he's not Stephen a
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 3: Smith since that like he actually really does know his stuff.
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 3: He just takes that knowledge and then gives you some
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 3: rage bait from time to time.
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: That's what it is. You nailed it there, That's exactly
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: what it is, because it's like he actually knows it,
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 2: but he needs to go that way with it. Instead
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: of just giving you the goods. It's like that's the difference.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: But give me a quick opinion just on some of this,
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 2: like the guys above like Sea Wou Min Wu, Tom Kim.
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: I'm looking at some of them, and I know there's
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: guys below too, like JJ Spahn and English and other options.
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 2: There is there anybody in that lower seven K range?
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: Because one thing that I was gonna say back to,
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 2: like when we talked to leverage again, we did talk
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 2: a little about can't lay and read. I don't know
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: if they're on your radar, but you have can't lay
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: read Rye Speith Nieman who finally showed up at a
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 2: major for once for literally for a first time ever once.
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: And then you've got like Alex Fitzpatrick. So is there
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: anybody from like that read, can't lay or multiple that
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: stand out in that bottom seven K range? I think
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: it's pretty interesting. Yeah.
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 3: The two stand up the most of me are read
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 3: and speak. Both of them have fantastic splits. Jordan speak
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 3: splits are like shockingly good. He might have the best
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 3: splits across the board either hate. It's basically either here Wallace,
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 3: to be honest with you, so I do think Speith
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 3: is very very interesting at like five percent, and then
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 3: from a pure talent perspective, at five percent, owners like
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 3: go down to sixty nine hundred Hideki Matsuyama. I think
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 3: that's as you mentioned earlier, like that's very much in
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 3: play as well.
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I started with like read versus can't lay versus RYE,
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 2: Like that'd be like again if I was looking at
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: that area and saying, okay, all three of them project
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: very similarly. You know, when you're looking at your builds,
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: it's like sometimes you want to take again, I'll let
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 2: some things trickle in like that range. But also it's
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: like if you were handbuilding a lineup and picking out
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: of that range. It's hard to really pinboy. But you
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 2: said Reid has better.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 3: Splits than any of them, Yeah, can't. Only splits are
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 3: really bad. So given his ownership, I think that's a
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 3: fairly straightforward for me, a straightforward fade for me. But
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 3: Ryan Reid both have good splits. Reads are really really good.
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 3: I think both are good, very good plays in fact, Yeah.
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: Especially like finding it when these greens are just gonna R.
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: I was thinking, like Patrick Reed at harder courses. I
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 2: know it's different history now versus like back in the
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 2: day verse now. But it's a guy that you know
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: has those hands around the green if he goes if
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 2: he even goes over, and then he can make the
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 2: putts when the time comes. Very competitive, like all that
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 2: stuff that dials in. So I think that's pretty interesting
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 2: there from that perspective by like some of the other
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 2: guys in the like. The one problem is, like Shane Lowry,
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: you could play Sam Burns basically the same price, but
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: Shane Lowry still has to play on Sunday. What are
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 2: Burns' cps?
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 3: What?
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: What's burns cps?
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 3: Uh? It is very poor, but he's been he's been
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 3: so good. And the last time he was in contention
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 3: was a major championship and he played well in contention.
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 3: So I think he's a pretty solid play. You just
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 3: have to be uh okay with the fact that you know,
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 3: he kind of wasn't expecting to play this week and
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 3: certainly wasn't practicing last week when his h when his
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 3: baby was born. But I think he's he's still a
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 3: very solid play. I probably prefer Henley at the same price,
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 3: but both are very good options.
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 2: Might just play Lowry is like the worst guy, what like,
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: whatever happens happened, He's got the hands around the green.
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 2: I think his splits look okay as well. So Yobi
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: Trice's real name No Gimmicks says, how do you feel
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 2: about Nakajima's recent form? He showed up on the broadcast
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: last week that even that eighteenth hole shot that they
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 2: let us see was for nice where it dropped in there,
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 2: tight and pretty solid game. I was surprised that he
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 2: was Again, it's young in golf years, but he's twenty
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: six or twenty seven. I think when I looked at
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: a twenty six, I think when I looked it up,
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: because for the longest that we talked about him, and
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: I know we've been doing this forever, but it was
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: like the amateur and the top amateur up and coming
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 2: and he's gonna be something. And obviously he still has
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 2: tons of tie twenty six, but I'm saying, you know,
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: this would be the time to start shining. Last week
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: pretty good result for him.
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So the interesting coming in the interesting thing coming
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 3: into last week for him was that like all of
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 3: his success was putter based, and so it was like
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 3: pretty easy to dismiss him instead of regressing with the
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 3: putter and maintaining the ball striking struggles. He did the opposite.
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 3: He maintained the putter and all of a sudden the
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 3: ball striking was there. Especially you know, he had one
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 3: of his one of the better driving weeks of his career.
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 3: So that's why he finished third at the Scottish And
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 3: I think he's an interesting play. I would kind of
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 3: group him in there with Matt Wallace in the sense that,
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 3: like ordinarily, if everyone was priced well, I think it'd
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 3: be a very kind of solid contrarian option. But given
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 3: the fact that there are just so many crazy underpriced
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 3: players that it's just probably not worth it. And I
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 3: would say the same thing for for Chakra as well.
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, a lot people go back to the well, if
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 2: you played guys last week too, maybe maybe you can
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 2: do that. But Stump said that Nakajima helped me get
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: a forty four to forty four ticket. I saw a
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 2: bunch of people in your discord had those tickets. Same
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: over at Hibernation, a lot of people racked up, you know,
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: some of them for their first time and are gonna
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 2: get to play in this big mega. I'm tilted. I
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: know you are as well. It's like the one where,
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 2: of course it's like the best structure of the year,
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 2: it's like two one million, two fifty two hundred, one
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 2: fifty one hundred whatever and all that, and people talk
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 2: about it, but it's like that's the discipline that you
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 2: have to have, right, Like I'm gonna be playing way
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 2: more than forty four to forty four, but I would
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 2: much rather play my game as opposed to that one
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 2: lineup for the week. So I'm gonna play max the
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 2: twenty five dollars. I'm gonna play a bunch of the
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 2: five dollars. The two fifty four max is nice with
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 2: thirty k up top, the two hundred dollars with one
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 2: hundred kf top, the King of the Desert satellites. There's
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 2: a forty four dollars that pays like twenty five percent
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 2: of the field and still has twenty grand up top
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 2: with a pretty average structure. So it's like I'd rather
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 2: just mix and match where I don't feel like super
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 2: solid around one lineup this week or any one strategy.
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 2: So that's my game. I know your game is a
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 2: little bit different, but maybe that's a good segue. What
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 2: is your leverage lane of the week. What are you
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 2: gonna roll with here?
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 3: I'll also answer Aaron's question real quick thoughts on Scott Vincent,
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 3: no interest whatsoever, like he's been all putter, He's never
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 3: done anything whatsoever in a major championships, two majors, both misscuts.
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 3: No interest there at all. Leverage lane this week. I
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 3: had two options. I'm gonna go with the with the
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 3: ladder of the two that were in my mind, and
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna say leverage lane this week is fine a
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 3: player five percent or less. And this gets back to
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 3: the point that I was making earlier in our kind
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 3: of like ownership discussion of what the effect is of
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 3: the really soft pricing, And to me, it's that you're
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 3: able to find genuinely good golfers with very real opportunities
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 3: and probabilities for success who are just so much lower
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 3: owned than they ever are otherwise. And so I'm going
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 3: to take advantage of it that way. If you find
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 3: someone that low who has real upside, is that much
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 3: of a separator. It allows you to eat some of
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 3: the truck if you want. Like if you think, hey,
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 3: Seawoo Kim is just priced way way way or projected
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 3: way too well, for someone under seven thousand dollars, you
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 3: can very easily play Seawoo Kim because you know that
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 3: you have a very very severe separator in your lineup.
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 3: So somebody under five thousand is my leverage line or
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 3: under five percent is my leverage line.
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 2: All right, Now, I just got a big decision here
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 2: I got to think about so before I do my
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 2: leverage lane. It's funny because my leverage lane is in
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 2: this But two B two real quick for you, would
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 2: you want Rory and Lowry the Buddies or would you
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 2: want Fits and Xander.
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 3: Roryen Lowry, Fits and Xander. Assuming that I have separators elsewhere,
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 3: I'd go Fits and Xander because I want nothing to
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 3: do with Shane Lowry, all right.
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: Because he stills to play on Sundays, which is insane.
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah, if on Sunday he comes within four strokes of
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 3: the lead, you're gonna get double double triple coming up
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 3: right after that, So you better just be prepared for it.
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 2: The initials SL stand for Sunday Loser for Shane Lowry
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 2: because it's going to be very bad on Sundays. We've
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: checked it out many a time. The sample size is
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: getting very big by the way too. It's not like
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 2: some well everyone has a bad Sunday here and there.
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's a huge sample, and it's even bigger
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 3: than the contention performance score captures because the contention performance
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 3: score doesn't capture the sundays where he plays himself into
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 3: contention from way way back and then despite being like
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 3: seven under through ten holes playing perfect golf, goes bogey
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 3: bogie triple once he got himself into contention. So yeah,
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 3: it's it's unbelievable. I've never seen like anyone this allergic
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 3: to the league.
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: I love this one from from Ryan. No hotter on
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 2: the course, but Larry will still find someone's beer on
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: Sunday somehow, some way. It's crazy. But my lever je
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 2: Lane is gonna be a guy this week. It's it's
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 2: gonna be a starting point for a lineup, and we
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: talked about it very little. The one mention was that
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 2: he's probably gonna be the most overlooked up there and
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be Xander Schaffle that I talked about. It's
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 2: very surprising to me. We rarely get any tournament, let
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: alone a major where Xander is gonna be like bottom
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 2: five of the top five that are gonna be up there.
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: So it's like when you look at the Scotty, Rory,
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: Tommy Fits Xander set up, then you add in and
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna just you do it there the five, I'm saying.
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: But then you have like Hatton and Morikawa and Robert
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 2: McIntyre down there, and then even in between you've got
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 2: Ram Ludwig Rose whatever people go to. I think starting
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 2: a lineup with Xander is pretty interesting. Like I said,
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 2: you can put him in with the matt fits, and
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 2: you know, some will say that's the pivot and do
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 2: it that way. But I just think using Xander is
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 2: a great spot this week. The guy just dominates in
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 2: all majors. His game can fit all courses. I don't
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 2: really care about this, that or the other of all
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 2: the other things. I just think it's a spot where
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 2: we are seeing him at least go somewhat overlooked. So
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 2: to the original point that somebody asked earlier, can I
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 2: fade the entire ten k range? I get it, it's
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 2: only the very next guy, but it's like that is considered.
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, you are fading the entire ten k range
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 2: to start with him, But there's some very unique builds.
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 2: Like I'm just throwing this out there because all have
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: a ton of different variations. But it's like, if you
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 2: go Xander Ram Ludwig Xander rom Rose, like just using
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 2: three as an example, you can go two, you can
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: go Xander Rum, get a couple of different eight K
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 2: guys that others aren't playing, and then land and not
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 2: even need six K guys. And these have potential made
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 2: cut equity that takes out from the win equity. It's
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 2: not like Xander in most projection sets won't be far
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 2: behind on that win equity and that capability. And honestly,
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 2: if if Xander's in the mix on a Sunday, it
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: wouldn't surprise anybody at a major it Xander shople does
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 2: he finish it? And remember he couldn't close, then he
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 2: closed two majors. Now he's back to not being able
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 2: to close again. It's just part of that. So I
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 2: think there's some interesting stuff there. But I like Xander
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 2: this week for my guy. Any comments on that or
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 2: anything else you want to add before we get out
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 2: of here.
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 3: His uh like top thirty streak whatever it is in
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 3: major championships is probably the only thing that's keeping him
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 3: above fifteen percent. Like if he didn't have that, I
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 3: think he'd he'd he'd have a chance to really sip
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 3: the crack down to like ten twelve percent something like that.
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I like this call, and I'm with you
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 3: in the sense that, like, I don't care that his
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 3: last couple events have been great. He's still Xander Schoffley.
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 3: Same with Cam Young, right, he's struggling. Now cam struggles
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 3: have been a little bit longer, and they are a
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 3: little bit more kind of geared towards the things that
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 3: he has struggled with in the past. Like when Cam
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 3: was you know, not Cam yet, it was because number one,
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 3: he didn't have the putter and he had very inconsistent
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 3: iron play. Well, his his approach play, it's still good.
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 3: He's still gaining, but it's nowhere near what it was
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 3: when he was winning golf tournaments early in the season,
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 3: and he's now really kind of struggle with the putter
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 3: for the majority of the last three months. So now
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 3: that he's not playing a ton, so that could help
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 3: explain it to some degree. But but yeah, so like
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 3: I'm probably a little bit more worried about the recent
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 3: struggles for Cam than I am Xander, but I view
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 3: them as very similar plays, and I think both are
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 3: definitely under owned.
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Aaron Smith said, Like, I again, I'm not necessarily
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 2: saying to go this, right, I'm talking about starting with Xander,
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 2: but like so that could definitely fit the build as well.
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 2: If you want to have like a Xander young Start,
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 2: it's just very unlikely to land in those you know,
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: decision making spots of the six K range and that
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 2: sort of thing. Or maybe it does and you get
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 2: more nine k's and eight's in there. It's it's dependent
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 2: on how you want to play it, but at least
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 2: I would feel somewhat comfortable with that. I also think,
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 2: you know, putting Xander into a lineup with like a
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 2: fits Xander, I think most people once they go fits, decide, okay,
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: I'm dropping down now it's going to be hat or
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 2: more Cow or Hoblind or whatever else it might be.
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 3: So yeah, and I think like the type of line
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 3: up that you want to do is Xander young start.
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 3: Is when you've you're like you're dead set and I'm
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 3: playing Seawoo Kim, I'm playing Tom Kim, I'm playing yack
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 3: O Neman, right, Like if you're already eating a lot
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 3: of chalk down there. Yeah, Now you need to get
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 3: different up top, and that's the way to do it.
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 3: Is not like you can't you can't get different enough
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 3: up top with just one guy who's fifteen percent. But
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 3: you can find those really unique combinations of players up top.
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 3: And obviously camon Zander qualify.
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 2: One hundred percent. You already let people know where they
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 2: can find him. Anything else you want to add before
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 2: we get add here or what anyone else with that
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 2: with your discord?
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 3: Uh yeah, I'll just tease the fact, like Tambo kind
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 3: of teased it a little bit earlier as well, but
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 3: posted some nfl DFS roster construction stuff in the in
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 3: the discord a couple of days ago, and like I,
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 3: I don't recall ever being more excited by some findings
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 3: than what I found there. Some really cool stuff. And
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 3: it was only part one. It all revolved around stacking,
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 3: like what size stack do you want? Do you want
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 3: to bring back? If you're double stacking, do you want
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 3: them to both be wide receivers? Should one be a
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 3: tight end? Should use the running back? Things of that nature.
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 3: Part two is going to be more ownership and price
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 3: driven it's gonna be some really cool stuff. So definitely
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 3: recommend checking all that out. It's I think the best
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 3: way I can describe it is it just simplifies the process,
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 3: right like, instead of guessing whether the things that you're
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 3: doing are good or not, with this data, you know,
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 3: cut and dry, I am doing winning stuff and over
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 3: the long run, I should be a winning DFS player
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 3: with this. With this information, so can't wait to use
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 3: at this NFL season, And if you get in now,
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 3: you will be at a pretty sizable discounted rate throughout
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 3: the entire NFL season and forever.
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, check that out for sure, if you guys have it.
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 2: If you want to check out Shipbronation dot com, go
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 2: to the site. It's just the forty nine dollars banner
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 2: at the top that'll get you a full month. So
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 2: it's a ton of golf still on the way. We've
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 2: got MLB coming back after the All Star break. We've
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 2: got all the other sports that you see there up
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 2: at the top to go with it. So check it out.
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 2: Shibnation dot com. Hit me up at toteg and tambo
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 2: if you have any questions about Shibernation. Do you have
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 2: us mastermind or the Big Guy event which is coming
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 2: up next month in Vegas. Would appreciate all the support
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 2: there that's gonna do over this one. Guys. Good luck
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 2: in the final major of the season for Alex and
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 2: for myself totagging tambo led ship.
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 3: It