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Some Expectations for the Buffalo Bills in 2026 | DC · Disguised Coverage

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  Speaker 1: It's thirty eight. All bills can win In here, Wake
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  Speaker 1: What's good? Folks, family, friends, loved ones, enemies, frienemies, wizards,
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  Speaker 1: which is muggles, mud bloods, people of Middle Earth. To
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  Speaker 1: another episode of disguised coverage. The only podcast that gives
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  Speaker 1: in the episode show notes, whether here on YouTube or
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  Speaker 1: I'm your host, Anthony Prohaska. Find me on Twitter at
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  Speaker 1: pro Underscore Underscore ant that's pro two Underscores, A and T.
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  Speaker 1: Find me on blue Sky at pro ant. No underscores there,
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  Speaker 1: just p R, O, A and T. In this edition
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  Speaker 1: of Disguise Coverage, we will be going over some expectations
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  Speaker 1: for the Buffalo Bills in twenty twenty six, not necessarily
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  Speaker 1: from a schedule or prediction standpoint, in terms of, you know,
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  Speaker 1: expect them to win the division, expect them to go
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  Speaker 1: this far in the playoffs, expect them to do you
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  Speaker 1: know this from an overall season standpoint, although if that's
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  Speaker 1: on the mind of anybody in the Live Chaef, feel
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  Speaker 1: free to put that in there and we will talk
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  Speaker 1: about it and engage as we do here on the show.
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  Speaker 1: But more so from a large scale and a small
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  Speaker 1: scale perspective, some detailed pieces, philosophy points, identity points, some
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  Speaker 1: scheme and structure and position group expectations. Overall, just more
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  Speaker 1: expectations in terms of what this team is going to
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  Speaker 1: look like on the field from a performance standpoint, from
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  Speaker 1: an identity standpoint, philosophy standpoint, all that, right, like, what
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  Speaker 1: should we expect on offense? What should we see them
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  Speaker 1: or what should we expect them to lead into? What
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  Speaker 1: can we expect from you know, both sides of the ball.
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  Speaker 1: In terms of identity, operating structure, sure sequencing, you know, again,
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  Speaker 1: continuing to tie in a lot of or say, I
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  Speaker 1: put a bow on a lot of the conversation pieces
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  Speaker 1: that we've had throughout this offseason in terms of you know, hey,
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  Speaker 1: we expect or you know what we've talked on the show.
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  Speaker 1: You know, expect to see these type of alignments, expect
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  Speaker 1: to see these type of play calls. You know, here's
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  Speaker 1: the trends of the league, here's how the Bills fit
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  Speaker 1: into that. Here's the direction we think they might be going,
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  Speaker 1: and here's the direction they've already gone in. How do
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  Speaker 1: we tweak it, how do we fix it? So on
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  Speaker 1: and so forth, starting to put a bow on all
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  Speaker 1: that put some things at a perspective. I have a
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  Speaker 1: nice advanced metrics graphic to put on the show tonight
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  Speaker 1: that I'm very proud of. Shout out to Joe Rosa
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  Speaker 1: for essentially putting a template for that on my radar,
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  Speaker 1: and then I plugged everything in, so big time shout
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  Speaker 1: out to mister Joe DeRosa for giving me that template. There.
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  Speaker 1: And training camp starts a week from tomorrow. Rookies have
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  Speaker 1: reported today, so starting next week we'll really be in
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  Speaker 1: the full swing of things. When it comes to training camp,
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: it's more expectator not expectations, but training camp analysis. What
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  Speaker 1: we're seeing, what we're hearing. I will be going to
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  Speaker 1: training camp both for multiple days next week that I'm
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  Speaker 1: very excited for. Might do some content when I get
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  Speaker 1: back on those days. We'll see how that works out.
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  Speaker 1: But yeah, once you know, next week hits, we're really
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  Speaker 1: starting to get into more of the meat of the
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  Speaker 1: off season when it comes to training camp, and then
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  Speaker 1: before we know a preseason will be here, and then
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  Speaker 1: before we know what the regular season will be here
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  Speaker 1: and we'll be diving into the regular routine and rhythm.
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  Speaker 1: We'll see how things go with training camp, you know,
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  Speaker 1: might just continue the regular offseason deep dives and then
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  Speaker 1: tying in some training camp pieces. We'll see if anything
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  Speaker 1: is notable. You know, I don't want to just put
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  Speaker 1: out content for the sake of putting out content. Equalities
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  Speaker 1: always of the most important. So we'll see, you know,
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  Speaker 1: what training camp looks like for the bills and how
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  Speaker 1: that alters the content of the show going forward. But
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  Speaker 1: we are back into our regular Tuesday nine pm Eastern
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  Speaker 1: live routine here on YouTube. Uploaded all the podcasting apps
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  Speaker 1: and platforms right after the live show is completed, and
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  Speaker 1: then yeah, we'll get some bonus episodes going forward, you know,
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  Speaker 1: potentially when I hit training camp in person, I will
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  Speaker 1: also be doing the preseason postgame shows here on disguise
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  Speaker 1: Coverage as we have done I think the past three
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  Speaker 1: years now at this point, so excited to get some
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  Speaker 1: real and meaningful football back into our lives as we
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  Speaker 1: always do here on the show. Question, thoughts, comments, concerns,
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  Speaker 1: anything and everything you folks have, please feel free to
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: put it up into the live chat. I like to
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  Speaker 1: make this show as engaging and as discourse heavy as
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: possible with everybody who tunes in live. So some of
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  Speaker 1: your expectations, your thoughts could be training camp related, could
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  Speaker 1: be season on a whole, could be a record prediction,
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  Speaker 1: could be what you're expecting from a player, could be
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  Speaker 1: good or could be bad. It could be large scale,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: small scale, wide net niche whatever, niche, well, yeah, niche,
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  Speaker 1: whatever you got, feel free to put it up into
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  Speaker 1: the live chat and we will get things cracking in
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  Speaker 1: this episode. Major shout out to Andrew who showed up
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: ten minutes early to come in and say let's go
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  Speaker 1: appreciate it. RJ jumping in is always appreciate you. RJ.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: I like to comment from Roy, who says, the tree
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: is bright tonight. It does look extra bright. It's the
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: same as it always is, but for whatever reason, it
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: looks very illuminated. I feel like it's like a white
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  Speaker 1: light version of Kramer with the Kenny Rodgers roaster sign
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  Speaker 1: and the red menace and he opens the door and
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: it flings him back right away. That's kind of what
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: I feel like with the white light tonight. But I
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: like it. I appreciate you recognizing it. RJ says, with
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  Speaker 1: Sean meaning McDermott gone, the floor has also left with him.
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  Speaker 1: We could go and win twelve wins, or have twelve wins,
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  Speaker 1: or we could go seven and ten. We just don't
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  Speaker 1: know what this looks like with a brand new, first
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  Speaker 1: time head coach and first time NFL DC. That's all
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  Speaker 1: fair points. We really don't know. It could be Brady
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  Speaker 1: could be a better coach than Sean McDermott and this
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  Speaker 1: Bill's team could finish worse. He could be a better
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  Speaker 1: coach and they could be better. He could be a
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  Speaker 1: better coach and they could be the same. He could
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  Speaker 1: be a worse coach, and they could be better, same, worse.
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  Speaker 1: All these things, there are a multitude of variables and
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  Speaker 1: possibilities for the team this year, first time head coach
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  Speaker 1: and Joe Brady, what does the team look like under
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  Speaker 1: his direction? You know, is he more of you know,
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  Speaker 1: the cool student teacher that is now all of a
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  Speaker 1: sudden a full time teacher now and kind of has
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  Speaker 1: control of the classroom. And what does that look like?
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: Jim Leonard, You folks know, I have a ton of
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: faith in Jim Leonard. He's He's really kind of the
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  Speaker 1: only thing that's keeping me from being too pessimistic on
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  Speaker 1: some aspects with the defense. But he is at at
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  Speaker 1: this level, at the NFL level, like you said, RJ,
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  Speaker 1: a first time NFL DC. I have a ton of
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  Speaker 1: faith in him from his time at Wisconsin and then
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  Speaker 1: with some of the things he picked up in Denver
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  Speaker 1: and what his role was at Denver. But again, all
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  Speaker 1: that sample size technically could be considered somewhat meaningless because
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  Speaker 1: not meaningless, but not necessarily you know, the sample size
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  Speaker 1: needed to give full faith in terms of what he
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  Speaker 1: could be for a defensive coordinator. And you know you've
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  Speaker 1: got DJ Moore on the offense, he got some tweaks
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  Speaker 1: and some changes, but kind of some more of the same.
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  Speaker 1: It really is this interesting mix of like a team
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  Speaker 1: that has changes at the helm but also is operating
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  Speaker 1: in a lot of the same ways as they have prior.
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  Speaker 1: And so it's gonna be interesting to see. But I
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  Speaker 1: like that comment, you know, for as much as and
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  Speaker 1: that was always what it was with McDermott. For as
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  Speaker 1: much as a new coach could also get you over
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  Speaker 1: the hump, a new coach also removes the floor that
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  Speaker 1: McDermott gave you every year. And we'll see, you know,
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  Speaker 1: which way the pendulum swings. It'll be interesting and I'm
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  Speaker 1: sure everybody will be super even keeled and not emotional
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  Speaker 1: about it, based on how the start of the year goes.
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  Speaker 1: Tough start of the year with especially playing against Houston.
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  Speaker 1: Andy's here, what's up, Andy, appreciate you. John Roberts says, Yes,
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  Speaker 1: rookie training camp started today. Yeah, the rookies reported today.
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  Speaker 1: One of the earlier reportings based on when four training
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  Speaker 1: camp starts. So the bills, I forget how long, how
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  Speaker 1: big the window is? I think you have a maximum
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: of someone can fact check me on this. I think
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  Speaker 1: you have a maximum of like seven or eight or
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  Speaker 1: nine days before full training camp starts the rookies can report,
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  Speaker 1: So the Bill is doing it essentially seven days because
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: everybody reports next Tuesday. Camp begins next Wednesday. So the
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  Speaker 1: Bills are essentially taking as advantage as as much as
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  Speaker 1: possible by getting these rookies in which I like to
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: see Charles's good Evening only show with an equal mount
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  Speaker 1: of blueeryes. That's right, Rights just can't wait to watch
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  Speaker 1: Kyle Allen and Shang Bouchelle play. Yeah, preseason time it's
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: here we will see oh, Roy says. I hate to
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  Speaker 1: say it, but I can see this defense getting quote
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  Speaker 1: unquote run over as usual. Too many unproven players on
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  Speaker 1: the defense for me to be optimistic. We will talk
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: about the run defense in this episode. As much as
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: it pains me to do so. I don't want to
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: talk about the Bills run defense anymore, but I kind
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  Speaker 1: of feel like we have to. So we are going
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: to try and put a bow on that this week
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: befoward here, but we will be talking about the Bills
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  Speaker 1: run defense here in this episode. Let's dive into I
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  Speaker 1: don't have any particular order I've got three main pieces
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  Speaker 1: I want to hit, and then three essential like sub
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  Speaker 1: points or additional pieces. Charles says, a big theme this
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  Speaker 1: year is bill The Bills have the second youngest defense
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  Speaker 1: and the fourth oldest offense. How this defense evolves over
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: the season will be interesting. Yes, that's a very good point.
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  Speaker 1: I like that's that I was not aware of the
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  Speaker 1: age discrepancy between the defense and the offense. I like
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  Speaker 1: that a lot. Also gives you the opportunity, if you're
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Jim Leonard, to really mold this defense into your image
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: from a mentality standpoint, a teaching standpoint, a coaching standpoint,
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  Speaker 1: a habit standpoint, and tying all that in within scheme instructure.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: That's a really good poll there, Charles. I appreciate you.
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  Speaker 1: I don't. Yeah, I don't, so I don't have any
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  Speaker 1: full order. I kind of all view them as equal.
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  Speaker 1: I'm gonna start out with this first one because it
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  Speaker 1: comes with the graphic, and I think the graphic does
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  Speaker 1: a good job. So this first topic, real straight forward,
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  Speaker 1: real blunt tight ends are going to matter. We've talked
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  Speaker 1: a bunch of this off season here on the show
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  Speaker 1: about league trends. The Sean McVay thirteen personnel stuff the
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  Speaker 1: draft class this year and all the tight ends, the
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  Speaker 1: impact of an inline tight end, adding more in line
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  Speaker 1: tight ends, the versatility that tight ends. Who can line
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  Speaker 1: up in line and block, but who can also function
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  Speaker 1: as pass catchers from an inline standpoint or you know,
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  Speaker 1: a non attached to the line of scrimmage standpoint, whether
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  Speaker 1: they're you know, hipped off, whether they're putting motion, whether
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  Speaker 1: in the slot, whether they go outside. You know, how
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: much of a Jackson Hawes are they? How much of
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: a Dalton Kincaid are they? How much of a Trey
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: McBride are they a brock bau ER's, a Colston Lovelin,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: a Tucker Craft all these kind of varying levels, but
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  Speaker 1: tight ends, you know, the along and the short of it.
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  Speaker 1: Tight ends are seeming next up in this wave of offenses,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: using personnel to dictate to a defense and being able
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: to access more of the menu without having to turn
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: the page. The Rams started doing it several years ago.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: It's funny how the RAMS seemed to be at the
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: forefront of things with Sean McVay, But the RAMS did
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  Speaker 1: it several years ago with their eleven personnel grouping because
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: it was okay, you know, you've got one running back,
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  Speaker 1: one tight end, three wide receivers, but their wide receivers
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: were guys like Cooper Cup and pookin Nakula and even
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: going back further with Robert Woods, and it was like,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: so you've got these receivers who can insert and block
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  Speaker 1: and do all this stuff, but they're also actually good
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: route runners and pass catchers and all this stuff. So
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: how do you defend them? Like you would want to
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: match receivers with dbs. So you're probably in nickel, but
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: then they can probably mash the hell out of your nickel,
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  Speaker 1: maybe even some of your safeties. Now we're seeing that
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  Speaker 1: aspect from a twelve and thirteen personnel standpoint with some teams,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: because you've got these personnel groupings where you can, you know,
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  Speaker 1: have everybody close to the line of scrimmage or attached
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  Speaker 1: to it and increase your surface area condense formations, get
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: to more in the run game, get downhill, mash teams,
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: run zone play action. But then you can also spread
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: some teams out. You can go you know, three by two,
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: you can go empty, you can go three by one.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: There's there's all a multitude of possibilities when you have
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  Speaker 1: the right body types, and tight ends are kind of
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: next up in that wave of you know, if you
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: have the right tight end room, if you have the
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: you know, two to three guys that can function as
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: blockers and as pass catchers and are both viable in
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: that option. It allows you to stay in a personnel
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  Speaker 1: grouping that you don't have to change and the defense
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  Speaker 1: does not know, Oh, are they're there in twelve, they're
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  Speaker 1: going to run it. Oh they're in twelve, they're going
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: to pass it. Now It's like, oh, they could do
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: either of those things, and they could do either of
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: those things from a multitude of alignments, formational widths. Situation
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: plays into a little bit more, but it essentially makes
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: the defense have to honor and account for more, which
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: makes life difficult for a defense. So tight ends are
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  Speaker 1: kind of next up, and they again those league trends
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: a dictation tool for offenses to the defense. I broke
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: down about a month ago offenses that the Bills could
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: borrow from from last year. I broke down what Ben
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Johnson was doing with his tight ends in Chicago and
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: how that tight end room is somewhat comparable to what
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: the Bills have, even though even though Colston Loveland is
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: just phenomenal because he can essentially do anything as an
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: inline guy, but also can split out and do anything
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: as a pass catcher and function as like a big body,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: wide receiver. So he's a bit of a unicorn there,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: especially compared to the Bills room. But we talked about,
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: you know, what the Bears did with their tight ends,
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: what the Cardinals do, what the what the Colts did,
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: what the Rams did. Teams they can borrow from in
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: that standpoint, and then again tying that in with twelve
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: and thirteen personnel and how that can function kind of
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: like what eleven personnel used to be several and several
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: years ago. But I want to bring up this chart
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: that shows, I think and puts into a good per perspective,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: how good the Bills are when they start to put
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: more tight ends on the field. So I'm gonna remove
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: that from the bottom. So this graphic shows the Buffalo
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Bills tight ends in twenty twenty five and essentially what
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: it is. We have three columns here. We've got the
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: overall so we've got advanced metrics for the overall offense,
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: and then we've got advanced metrics for when the Bills
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: are in twelve and thirteen personnel, and then we've got
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: the advanced metrics and the last column of the far
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: right there that are just when the Bills are in
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: thirteen personnel. And the advanced metrics we have here are
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: EPA per play, overall success rate, overall explosive pass rate,
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: explosive run rate, EPA per pass passing success rate, EPA
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: per rush, and rushing success rate. So first thing, you can,
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: you know, lowest hanging fruit. You can look at the rankings.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: We'll start in that overall column. The Bills were a
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: good offense last year. You kind of look at a
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: lot of things and okay, you know second, second, seven, third, third, fifth, fifth, second,
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: and those are all good, right, And then as you
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: go through twelve and thirteen and then thirteen, you'll see
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: a lot of the rankings continue to be in the tops,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: because again, the Bills were a top offense overall from
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: a pass standpoint, from a run standpoint, so you expect
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: a lot of those metrics to back that up. But
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: what is interesting and more notable, I think, is the
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: changes in the individual scores. And you can go right
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: across the line EPA per play. You can see what
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: it is overall plus zero point one to eleven when
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: you go into twelve and thirteen plus zero point one
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: point nine to nine, so a pretty decent jump. And
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: then look at what it is when they're in thirteen
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: personnel plus zero point three six six significant jump. Now,
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: as I've stayed it before, sample size is important when
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: you are having these types of conversations. So, uh, where
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: is this? Okay? So, uh, twelve and thirteen personnel combine
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: for the Bills last year. All these metrics, by the way,
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  Speaker 1: as well in this graphic are per Pro Football Focus.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: So in twelve and thirteen personnel last year, the Bills
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: had two hundred and five plays, which was twenty eighth
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: in the league. So not a ton of plays out
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: of twelve and thirteen combined. And then if we're just
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: talking thirteen, they were eleventh in plays out of thirteen
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: personnel last year, but it was still only sixty four plays,
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: so you don't have this huge sample size. This wasn't
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: some dominant grouping where hey they lived in this, this
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: was you know, their personnel grouping. Forty fifty percent of
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: the time it was worked in with a multitude of
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: other heavy personnel packages that we talked previously in this
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: episode about how the Bills essentially diversified their heavy personnel
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: grouping last year, a little bit of twelve, a little
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: bit of thirteen, a little bit of twenty one, a
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: little bit of twenty two for reference, they were in
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: twelve personnel eleven point one percent of the time. They
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: were in thirteen personnel five percent of the time. So
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: we got a volume standpoint, we got a percentage standpoint.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: But either way the numbers here, the changes, the essential
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: improvement for each of these advanced metrics, the more tight
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: ends they get on the field is significant. So we
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: mentioned the EPA per play success rate overall fifty three
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: point three in twelve and thirteen, sixty three point four
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: in thirteen personnel, sixty five point six. Explosive pass rate
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: another significant change, fifteen point four percent overall, sixteen point
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: nine percent in twelve and thirteen, twenty five percent in
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: thirteen personnel, so almost a full ten percentage point increase
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: from an overall standpoint to when they're just in thirteen.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: Explosive run rate fourteen point five overall, fourteen point seven
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: in twelve and thirteen twenty point four out of thirteen.
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: Personnel EPA per pass zero point one nine to three overall,
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: zero point four in twelve and thirteen zero point six
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: five five out of thirteen. Passing success rate big one
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: fifty point four overall, which was fifth best in the league,
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: so that's pretty good. Twelve and thirteen personnel sixty one
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: point eight percent, which was first, so in eleven point
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: four percent percentage point or eleven point four percentage point increase,
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: and then in thirteen personnel sixty five percent passing success rate,
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: which was first in the league, so almost a full
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: fifteen percentage point increase there from overall to thirteen personnel
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: EPA per rush overall point plus positive point zero zero
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: five which was fifth in twelve and thirteen, plus zero
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: point zero four six which was first, and then out
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: in thirteen plus zero point two three five which ranked third.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: But again see that improvement. Rushing success rate fifty six
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: point nine percent overall, which was second in the league,
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: sixty sixty four point seven percent out of twelve and thirteen,
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: which was first, and then sixty five point nine percent
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: out of thirteen, which was second. You can go right
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: across the board for any of these metrics. They literally
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: I did not plan it this way, just ended up
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: working out once I started diving into it. You see
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: what the numbers are in overall, which is good, right,
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: this is a good offense. And then you go to
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: twelve and thirteen combine all those advanced metrics increase, and
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: then you pull out the twelve and you just stick
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: with the thirteen, they increase even further. I think these
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: numbers are pretty drastic from a change standpoint. And again,
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: even if you're sticking with the overall aspect, their numbers
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: are good. They're a good offense. So you can if
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: you want to play Devil's after, you can say, well,
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: they're probably gonna be good out of most personnel groupings
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: and most formations and so on and so forth however
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: you want to play it. But these are significant jumps
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: from a point standpoint. Again, it's I put the rankings
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: there so you can see it in perspective, but kind
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: of forget about the rankings and some of it, and
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: just look at the change in points, you know, from
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: an EPA per play standpoint, to change in the percentages
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: for explosive pass, explosive runs, success rates, all of that
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: kind of stuff. So it's very interesting to kind of
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: see this. I know I read off numbers sometimes that
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: I thought it'd be easier to kind of present this
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: in a graphic. I've talked about these numbers at multiple
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: points throughout the off season, but I thought showing this
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: graphic here would really put it into perspective. And again,
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna leave this up here as I can continue
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: to talk in case new people come in see these numbers,
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: because again it continues to put things in perspective. But
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: what I've talked about with the Bills tight ends this
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: year is leaning into more of that spread aspect in
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: the offense. And it's kind of one of the sub
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: bullets that I was gonna say for later, but I'm
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: just gonna work it in now with the Bills tight
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: end room. Yes, Jackson Hawes is the blocking tight end.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: Dawson Knox is the one who kind of lives in
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: the light in the dark in the middle. He can
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: block a bit, he can pass, catch a bit. And
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: then you've got Dalton Kinkaid at the opposite end of
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: the spectrum of Jackson Hawes, who is more of, you know,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: a big bodied wide receiver more so than he is
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: a tight end. He's not really a guy you're gonna
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: put in line. He's not very viable there, especially against
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: you know, bigger body types and certain play styles and
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: skill sets. You know, he apparently put on ten pounds
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: this offseason. We'll see if that makes it more viable
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: in line. But even with that, Kinkaid knocks and haws,
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: you can do enough with them where you can be condensed.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: You can go spread and you can do that out
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: of twelve. You can even do that out of thirteen.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: I continue to talk about this, or even you do.
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: You can go with thirteen and put haws and knocks
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: attached to the formation and split dot and split. Don't
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: can kate out as a quasi x or put him
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: in the slot like you can do all these things
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: with them in a variety of ways. Now, yes, it's
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: not the same as you know. Okay, we have Colston
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: Lovelin as our tight end one because we're the Bears
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: and we can line them up in line. We can
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: have and be the move guy, you know, the f
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: or the h We can line him, split him up
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: out why one on one, we can put him in
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: the slot. But there are limitations to some degree with
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: the Bills tight ends. It's not this complete cure all
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: it's not this complete schematic mismatch at all times, but
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: it does present the Bills an option to dictate to
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: defenses either by personnel or even by situation, because they
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: can stay in that personnel grouping. And what I'm hoping
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: to see more of in twenty twenty six is staying
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: in that personnel grouping and then just do doing more things,
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: accessing more of the menu without having to turn the page.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna say that hopefully a million times this year,
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: being in twelve and thirteen going condensed, running it down
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: someone's throat, and then staying in that exact same grouping
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: coming out of the huddle the next time, and we're
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: in full three x two gun empty, or we're in
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: a three by one shotgun, James Cook is in the backfield,
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: and that solo player to the one side and the
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: three by one. It could be a wide receiver, it
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: could be Dalton Kincaid, it could be somebody else, but
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: I think this starts to open up Kincaid a little
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: bit now that they have a true, a true top
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: of the depth chart receiver in DJ Moore I don't
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: think djmore is a true wide receiver one. I think
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: from a production standpoint he could be in this offense potentially,
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: but I think DJ Moore is built is more of
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: a high end wide receiver two from a ceiling standpoint,
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: given his skill set. But still at the end of
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: the day, he's a guy who presents a threat, who
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: presents somebody who can win that you have to account
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: for on the outside, even if it's just from a
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: speed standpoint. But now you get a little more viability
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: with that solo receiver, if it is a receiver, you
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: get a little more viability if you want to make
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: a Dalton Kincaid. There's all these schematic there's all this
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: I should say, schematic potential with the bills tight end
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: room from a pass standpoint, from formation standpoint, from an
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: alignment standpoint, and still at the end of the day
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: or at the beginning of the day, I should say,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: for all of it, you could really just keep it
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: simple and be like, you know what, Yeah, we could
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: go spread and do all this stuff, you know, from
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: a pas sing standpoint in thirteen or twelve, and you
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: know what, Yeah, Jackson Hawes is a little underrated as
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: a pass catcher, and you know he's not in the
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: lead pass catching guy or route running guy, but he
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: can move a little bit and he can find some space.
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: But you know what, let's just keep it simple and
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: just run duo and mid zone and mash everybody right
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: through their face, left right. We can line up in
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: the same alignment of formation and run midzone. Week we
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: can run duo. We can do some play action off
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: of that, which I hope is another hope. Let's keep
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: leaning into the play action game that mirrors mid zone.
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: Let's get some more duo play action in there. Let's
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: have more play action concepts that match the run schemes
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: that we are leaning into. They could just keep it
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: simple and run and just mash and just run the
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: ball and that's it, and then mix in some play
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: action from time to time. I hope they are a
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: more there. I hope they increase their play action rate
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: again this year. They were more middling last year. I
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: think like sixteenth, fifteenth, like twenty four percent. I'd love
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: for them to get into the top ten. I'd love
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: for them to cross the thirty percent threshold and start
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: to use some play action more. Obviously, a lot of
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: This is predicated on the health of Dalton Kincaid, which
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: continues to be a question market understandably so, and I
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: would say rightfully so. But even if it's knocks and
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: hawes line up and run the ball through people's faces.
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: And as we've talked about the show, no Reggie Gilliam,
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: So twenty two percent is going to go down or
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: twenty two personnel, that usage rate's going to go down,
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: twenty one personnel, that usage rate is going to go down.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: So you're gonna see more twelve, you're gonna see more thirteen,
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: you're gonna see more eleven. You've got DJ Moore. We'll
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: see what they do with Khalil Shakir, We'll see if
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: Josh Palmer is healthy. But your baseline and the straw
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: that stirs the drink is your tight end room, which
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: is a really nice piece. And I think these metrics
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: obviously speak tremendously of what this room was capable of
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five, or what they did, I should say,
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five. Again, smaller sample size, you know
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: for reference, I mean, the RAMS are in their own atosphere,
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: but you know, like the RAMS I think had like
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: four hundred and ten plays in thirteen and the Bills
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: had sixty four, so I think whoever was second had
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: like one hundred and twenty, so I'm almost double what
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: the Bills had. So sample size is gonna play a
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: role here, right, but encouraging to say the very least
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: about the Bills tight end room and again what it
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: affords them in the past and in the run play action,
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: you know, straight drop back, true dropbacks to scenarios, condensed
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: spread gun under center, a lot of schematic potential, a
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: lot of things where you forced the defense to have
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: to honor some stuff and treat multiple things as a threat.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: And I thought this graphic, you know, does a pretty
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: good job of showing that. I'm also pretty proud of myself.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: So they get centered everything pretty well. There are some
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: things that maybe look a little lot, but I couldn't
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: get him a match. But again, Huja shout out to
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: Joe DeRosa four essentially hooking me up with a graphick
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: there that I filled in with my data points and
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: notes here that I had looked up and gone through.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: I want to pull up some comments that we went
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: through here. Andy says twelve and thirteen should be used
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: more by the Bills, you can play action and send
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: all three tight ends in your pass routes. Come on,
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: let's see some more flavor. Absolutely, you send all three
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: flood concept, little sale concept, whatever you want to do
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: some crossers, mesh. I'm just kidding. Yeah. Royce says, if
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: Kink can be healthy for at least fifteen of the
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: seventeen regular season games, I'll see that as a win. Yeah,
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: I would. I just I either want him to play
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: a good chunk of games completely healthy, or be able
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: to play enough that he's not on a pitch count,
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: because even when he came back last year after getting hurt,
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: he was on a pitch count, and that just muddies everything.
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: As artist as YEP, thirteen should come up with a
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: significant margin because we don't have Regie Gilliam Anymoreteen go up,
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: twelve should go up, eleven will go up. Charles says,
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: Bills are invested heavy in the tight end room, so
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: you might as well use them. Absolutely absolutely. Roy says,
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: how many of those successful passes are just dump off
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: to Shakir. I didn't check, but I understand where that
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: comes from. That is uh, that is fair, But I
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: don't think I think from a lot of a lot
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: of the explosives, if I'm remembering correctly, like explosive passes
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: out of there were largely to the tight ends, not
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: necessarily Shakir and the run game standpoint, obviously that's a
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: different piece as well, So I don't think I don't
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: think that's really kind of skewing it too much. But
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: even if you are doing that, it depends on the
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: alignment and the formation they were kind of coming out of.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: But I don't think that excuse it too much. But
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: I get I get the notion Charles says the Bills
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: have an elite receiving tight end and elite blocking tight
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: end and a hybrid tight end that's both. It's a
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: good blend of skills. Yeah, I think that's uh. I
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: think it's a fair point. The comment here, is there
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: any hope for Kincaid to take a leap next year,
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: not just health wise but being more versatile as a blocker?
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: I hope. I just think it's a lot of what
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: he is or isn't as a blocker is just tied
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: to and I've said this before, it's tied to like
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: what makes him successful as a pass catcher and a
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: route runner and a mover and an athlete. The fluidity,
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: you know, the grace that he moves with, how he
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: was able to glide a lot of what works for
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: him as a route runner and in the past cat
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: in the past game is what kind of works against
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: him as a blocker. He doesn't have that stocky type
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: of build. He is you know, you know, longer in
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: his frame. He is a bit taller, so you know,
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: he's not you know, kind of rooted to the ground naturally.
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: From a body composition standpoint or a size and frame standpoint,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: he is you know, a bit longer. There is more
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: length to his frame, so the center of gravity changes
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: a little bit. And when you combine the way he's
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: built and kind of being more wiry than he is
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: stocky and stout, and you combine that with being off
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: in technique, that's where the struggles come. He's willing as
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: a blocker, like even when even when he is kind
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: of getting beat up a little bit in the run
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: game by bigger body dudes and more physical dudes. It's
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: not because he's like shy like he it's not like
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: he's shying away from contact. He wants to block. He
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: tries it it's just that he is limited in those instances.
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: But I do think if he's healthy, obviously that helps
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: him more. I do hope that the added weight helps
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: him a little as well. You know, obviously you're adding
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: more way to the frame. Maybe you know that increases
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: your ability to bang a little bit and give some
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: resistance to some guys. It is such an interesting conversation,
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: and it's it is a bit ironic that, you know,
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: the Bills drafted Kincaid and then kind of right after
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: Kincaid was drafted, we've seen this movement towards, you know,
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: inline blocking being more important and teams kind of unless
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: you're a unicorn as a pass catching tight end like
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: more of Brock Bowers is or Trey McBride is, it's
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: almost like you'd rather have the inline guy who can
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: do a little bit of pass catching rather than the
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: pass catcher who can do a little bit of blocking
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: or is more limited in the blocking. So it is
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: interesting the kind of the timing of it all and
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: the trends and how it's lined up. But I do
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: think if Kincaid is healthy, that definitely helps. I just
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: don't think he's ever going to be a strong inline
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: blocker even to the level that Knox is. Like, Knox
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: put a lot of effort into his technique and his form,
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: hand placement, leverage, understanding angles in the run game, all
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: that kind of stuff. I just don't know if Kinkaid
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: will ever get there because of how he's physically, you know, composed,
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: And the same thing for Knox, Like I don't think
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: Knox will ever get to where Kincaid is as a
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: pass catcher mover. Same thing for Hawes because they're not
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: built like Kincaid is. They don't have his traits. They
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: don't have his frame, his movement ability, his flexibility, his pliability,
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff. That's a fair question. And
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: here says I can see Kinkaid being the leading receiver
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: next year. I do think if Kinkaid is healthy, he's
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know if leading receiver will end up being
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: that from like a production standpoint or a target standpoint
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: yards receptions, however we want to quantify it. I do
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: think if Kinkaid is healthy, I think he is the
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: tip of the spear in the passing offense. I think
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: Jpacosta said that last year, used that phrasing last year
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: for something. It might have been Kkai actually when I
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: had him on the show. I've had him on a bunch,
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: so they all kind of blend together. I do think it.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: I do think from a pass catching standpoint, I know
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: DJ Moore is here and he's a wide receiver, YadA YadA,
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: and the Bills have secure and secure is good as well.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: If Dalton Kin Kate is healthy, I think Dalton Kin
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: Kate is the tip of the spear in the pass game.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: And I think he's the straw that stirs the drink
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: as a pass catcher, wide receiver, tight end, anything. I
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: think it starts with him. So the healthier he is,
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: I think even if even if he's not the most
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: targeted or as the most catchers or has the most yards,
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: I think he's the guy that matters most of the
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: pass game if he is healthy. And he says, depending
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: on how defense choose to play against us, is either
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: Kinkate or more is the leading receiver. Yeah that's fair.
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: Laura says, Hey, Ant, we're wrapping ramping up. Yay, finally
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: the offense. The offseason kills my soul. Yeah he does.
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: That does get boredom into uh, get into that the
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: piece a little bit. The Dulgen's of the offseason. Sam's
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: as is Skylar Bell at wide receiver too overly optimistic
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: for me? Yes, I was fine with the Bills taking
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: Skylar Bell. I like him to a degree. I don't
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: love him as much as others do and or did.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: I had a fourth round grade on him and he
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: went in the fourth almost almost a fifth, so I
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: thought the value was good. I think he's built more
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: is I think his trajectory is more in line with
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: being kind of like an auxiliary receiver and a supporting
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: cast guy than he is a top of the depth
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: chart guy, which I think is fine, and I like
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: his skill set. I give me another guy who can
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: add some vertical and horizontal stretch and I will take that.
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: So for me, for his career, I think it's overly optimistic.
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: In general, I think it's too optimistic, especially for his
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: rookie year. But if you're high on him, I don't
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: think it's necessarily out of the question down the road.
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: But I think a receiver twos as a rookie this
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: year I think is overly optimistic. And then for me
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: personally overall, I think that you know, if he reaches
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: wide wide receiver two status from an actual like not
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: just production standpoint, from a skill set, what he's able
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: to do and how you can use him. I think
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: that would be an absolute slam dunk. I just think
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: it's I think his ceiling is a little lower than that,
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: not just as a rookie but overall for me. But
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: there are folks that are really high on him, so
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: you never know. Roy says Kincaid was not was draft
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: was not wasn't drafted for his blocking abilities. So if
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: he's not good at it, I don't care. I think
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: that's fair. The just the issue is it limits what
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: you can do with him because he can't function in line.
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: There's only certain things you could do. I went. I
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: talked about it in UH in one of the episodes
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: is offseason, Like when he's in there, what the run
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: rate is versus the pass rate, and when he is,
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: you know in line, how often it's run towards him
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: versus away from him. It's a big tell when he's
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: in there for certain things kind of what's gonna happen.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: And so it limits you in terms of what you
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: can do with him. The defense knows what you can
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: and can't do with him, so they can then play
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: their hand a certain way and know, okay, well, ken
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: Kaid's lined up in line, he's a take, he's on
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage, attached to the formation. They're not
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: going to run towards him, or even if they do,
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: we can beat him up and knock him back at
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: the point of attack with a defensive end or a
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: bigger body like even Nickel to some degree. So it
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: does limit you in what you can do. He's a
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: phenomenal pass catcher, and I do think there's enough you
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: can do with him as a pass catcher to get
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: value from him, but especially in today's NFL, him being
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: limited from an inline standpoint means there are only certain
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: things you can do with him. The defense, by extension
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: knows that, and so when he's on the field, when
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: he's in certain alignments, when he's in certain places, they
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: can essentially treat him in a certain way that allows
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: you to dictate less to them, which is where that
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: whole part comes in. Like, he is a really good
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: pass catcher sort a certain point, Yeah, who cares if
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: you can't block, But it does limit you in terms
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: of what you can do with him. Uh b B
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: does Kinkaid get a contract extension trying to grab all
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: this stuff like Kinkaid right now, does kN k get
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: a contract extension? Would being extend him if the next
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: two years or like the last two years, or does
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: he need to show more for me? He's got to
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: stay healthy a good chunk of this season to be
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: able to get a contract extension, because you just for me,
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: I'm you know, I'm gonna continue to say that I
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: like my I like a little more in line aspect
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: to my tight ends. Right I want to be able
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: to know, Okay, I can take multiple tight ends and
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: any one of them can be in line, they can
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: in the slot. They might even be able to be
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: out wide. And I know not everybody expect. I'm not
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: expecting like a Colston Lovelin, but you know, for instance,
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: I would rather have like a Tucker Craft than don't
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: kin Kate. Craft isn't the route runner that Kinkaid is.
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: He isn't the mover you know in the nuance route
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: runner or pass catcher that Kinkaid is. But he's a
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: much more viable inline blocker. And then he can still
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: function well in the past game because of his athleticism,
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: his run after catchability. He is like a a hammerhead
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: once he gets the ball. So I think there's there's
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: some subjectivity to it. And since this question is structed
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: towards me, I'm like giving him that extension, knowing that
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: he is more of a siloed player worries me a bit.
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: But it's more health than anything. Like it's I could
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: make peace with some of the limitations of him as
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: an inline blocker. It's just more of the health. And again,
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: it's not even like last year was a good example.
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: We talked touched on Hi briefly. It's not even that
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: he missed games. It's that even when he was playing
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: a good chunk of those games, he was on a
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: pitch count. And so it's like, Okay, not only is
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: he missing games, but then he's in there and we
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: still have to worry about how we use him. When
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: we use him, it's for me. It's more health than anything,
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: and so for in terms of he needs to show
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: more for me, he just needs to show that he
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: can stay healthy. I hate using this line because I
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: think it's overplayed, but you know, the best ability of
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: the best ability is availability, ha ha. He's got a
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: show that he can stay on the field because I
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: think that there is that natural limitation because you can't
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: you can't or aren't going to use him in line.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: And then if he's banged up on top of that,
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: your usage shrinks even further and it kind of just
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: whittles down and whittles down. So I think he needs
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: to show more from a health standpoint. I think if
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: he shows more from a health standpoint, the pass catching
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: productivity will come. I think if he stays healthy this year,
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: I think the bills will extend him. That is my thought.
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: But yeah, especially for me, I need to see him
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: stay healthy. Charles says, you have to increase kincaid snap
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: percentage can't be a threat if you in on the field. Yet,
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: you gotta stay healthy. And then got to stay healthy
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: enough to play in the games, and then be healthy
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: enough to play in the games and not be on
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: a pitch camp. Ryan says Kincaine ran routes on only
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: forty four percent of pass plays. I heard on Joe
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: Marino's podcast fact Check, question mark affected by not being
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: in on certain downs. I think it's affected overall in general.
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: I think it's affected by him not being in on
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: certain downs and then whether like what he's able, how
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: he's able to move, if he's got lower bottom injuries,
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: upper body stuff, if he's got a busted wheel, kind
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: of what he can do as a mover. I think
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: it's just the injuries muddy everything because we don't really know.
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: Maybe there was more of a diverse plane for him
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: last year in terms of snapshare, route running percentage, target
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: percentage usage overall, but then the injuries money that. I
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: just think the injuries are such a variable that's annoying.
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: And then Ryan follows up by say McBride was in
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: there running routes on eighty nine percent of the pass plays. Yeah,
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: and I mean McBride is also. McBride is a better
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: inline blocker than Kinkaid, but he's in line blocking isn't
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: really his strength. He's not Tucker Craft by any means.
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: But he's such a just menace as a pass catcher
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: because he's got he's got more juice, he's got physicality,
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: he's got athleticism. Yeah, McBride is. McBride's a monster. McBride
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: is also I think King Kaid could be the tip
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: of the spear for the Bills passing offense. The way
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: McBride is for the Cardinals, just in different ways, because
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: even though they're both pass catching first tight ends, they
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: are different in terms of their skill sets and their traits.
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: But that would be an ideal world where he's the
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: tip of the spear for the Bills offense passing offense
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: the way McBride is for the cards And then Andy said,
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: Kincaid's value is in blocking from the slot. He can
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: block or we can run play action and run around.
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: That is absolutely true, but again that's that ties into
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: it again, like you knowing that or thinking that the
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: defense knows that, so you can already kind of plan
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: and prep if Kinkaid is going to be on the field, Okay,
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: he's probably not going to be in line. If he is,
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: they're probably not going to run towards him. Once you
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: know certain things ahead of time as a player and
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: as a coach and as a play caller, all these things,
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: you can kind of tick off some boxes and know like, okay,
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: we don't have to account for X, Y, and Z,
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: we only have to account for A, B and C,
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: and that can still be dangerous. You can still be
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: dangerous with just doing A B and C, but being
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: able to do A, B and C and X, Y
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: and Z. Makes life harder for the defense because now
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: they have to account for six things instead of three.
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: So it's just you shrink the world a little bit,
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: you shrink the menu a little bit. Laura says, I'm
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: actually more excited about DBS than I have been in years.
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: Fair point fair points. So yes, tight ends are going
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: to matter. That's the first part there. Let's talk we'll
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: stay on the offense. Let's talk about the run game.
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: The run game shock spoiler for some it's going to
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: be good. Fingers crossed, no jinx, it's going to be good,
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: and it's going to be the foundation and or the
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: table setter for the offense. Though, as I mentioned earlier
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: and I mentioned about this offseason, I do think more
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: spread is going to be a thing this year. Spread
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: in terms of the pass game, but also even some
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: spread run game as well. But run game kind of
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: functioning in general no matter what site, essentially moving too much.
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: But the camera of folks, no matter what site you use.
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: The Bills were essentially a top tier run team last
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: year pretty much across the board. DVOA standpoint, Advanced metrics standpoint.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: But if you want some advanced metrics. Sure, I shall
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: give them to you per next Gen. The Bills run
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: game last year third in EPA per rush, second most
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: runs of ten or more yards with sixty eight, second,
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: lowest stuff rate, which are runs that go for zero
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: or less. They were third in success rate at forty
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: six point six. They were first in rushing yards over
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: expected and tied for first and rushing yards over expected
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: per rush. They were third in yards before contact per rush,
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: they were tenth in yards after contact per rush, and
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: they were second in rush yards per rush and or carry.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: Good run game, good offensive line. Aaron Kromer's gone. He
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: was extremely important to the offensive line and to the
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: run game, as we've talked about this offseason, as I
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: think we spoke about it first in the film room.
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: Aaron Kromer was essentially the game day run game caller
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: for the Buffalo Bills. From what I gather, it essentially was,
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: you know, their call and plays, and Brady's like, oh,
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: you know, let's call a run here, and Aaron Kromer
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: calls what run they call. So the run game was
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: very important several years. It's been very good. Aaron Kromer
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: was a key cog within that, both in terms of
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: the offensive line and in terms of the game day
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: play calling and sequencing. Aaron Kromer is now gone. Does
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: the offensive line take a dip? If so, how much
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: does the game day play calling and sequencing take a
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: hit and or dip? If so, how much? I do
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: think things will largely be fine enough. I feel like
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: you can get most people in there to call plays
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: with this group and just go, you know, we're just
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: gonna call duo. Let's get in twelve personnel and run duo.
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: Let's get in twelve personnel and run mid zone. Week
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: Let's do it out of eleven. If you know, our
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: receivers can prove they can block. You know, if Tyrrel
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: Shavers was here already, we could just do eleven and
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: do the exact same stuff. So I do think the
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: run game will largely carry itself. But part of the
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: reason why I want to talk about this a bit
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: is I feel like there's a misconception because the Bills
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: have Josh Allen, that like having a good run game
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: or having the run game being a foundation of the
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: offense is a bad thing, And I feel like that's
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: some misconcemption, like having a good run game is good
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: and it's important. Top and or good teams slash offenses
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: tend to have good run games. So, for instance, some
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: teams in the top ten for rushing DVOA last season,
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: this is, in order, the Rams, the Bills, the Ravens,
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: the Bears, the Colts, the Bengals, the Steelers, the Cowboys,
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: the Falcons, the Lions. Most of those are pretty good offenses.
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: The Super Bowl winning Seattle Seahawks, they were twelve, just
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: outside the top ten. So most good offenses have a
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: rush offense in the top half of the league and
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: or top ten in rushing DVOA. Now, of those teams
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: that I just rattle off that we're in the top
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: ten for rushing DVOA. And for those who don't know,
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: DVA is essentially a metric that grades you out across
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: the entire rest of the league based on opponent, based
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: on situation, quality of opponent sort of subly kind of
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: puts everybody on an even plane, which is why you
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: know the Patriots, for example, they had some pretty good
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: advanced metrics from a run game standpoint, but then DVA
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: they were like twenty one in twenty third in different
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: ways for the run because when you equaled out for
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: opponent and situation, it was like, h they're really not
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: that good. So DVOA is a nice way to kind
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: of balance everybody out and see kind of where they're functioning.
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: So if you take those rushing offenses, those top ten
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: rushing offenses for DVOWA, the following offense were also following
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: offenses of those ten were also in the top ten
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: overall offenses in DVOA, and that was the Rams, the Bills,
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: the Bears, the Colts, the Cowboys, and the Lions. And
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: even of those top ten rushing teams, most of those
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: were still close to being top ten overall offenses. The
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: Ravens were eleventh, the Bengals were thirteenth, the Steelers were sixteenth,
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: the Falcons were pretty much the big outlier at twentieth,
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: and then the Seahawks were tenth overall. So having a
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: run game is good and or important. Top and or
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: good teams slash good offenses. Top offenses tend to have
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: good run games. No, this does not mean that it's
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: more important than the past. Yes, EPA per pass is
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: still more than the average EPA per rush. That's why
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: advanced metrics people will tell you throw the ball more
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: than you need to run the ball. But you need
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: to run the ball in today's NFL, or at the
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: very least, it needs to be a threat in today's
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: NFL with how defenses are operating. The run game helps
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: you dictate to defenses and makes them account for more
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: and have to honor more. I keep I shouldn't say
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: keep saying comments. I just noticed them more sparingly and
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: echoed a to a decent degree. And it might just
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: be that, you know, it's a very vocal minority, but
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: I see comments you know where I'll be like, oh,
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: you know the Bills are going to run the ball
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: again in twenty twenty six, or comments along those lines
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: like the run game is going to be important. The
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: run game is the foundation. The run game is the
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: straw that stirs or drink something like that. And I'll
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: see comments along the lines of like, oh, well, that's
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: embarrassing when you have a quarterback like Josh Allen, Like
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: they're doing such a disservice to Josh Allen by running
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: the ball, And I just don't think that's true. Running
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: the ball matters, Passing matters. You need both. You also
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: need explosives, which is kind of the bigger part of everything.
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: That's a conversation for another time. But long story short,
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: running the ball matters. The play action game is starting
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: to matter again. You're starting to see, you know, the
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: play action game evolved. It's not just shop plays. It
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: is some shot plays, but it's also using play action
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: and attacking the underneath and taking advantage of kind of
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: the no cover zones and some space underneath the tight
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: ends who are chipping or releasing you know, guys on
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: the underneath, on drag routes, different pieces. It's you know,
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: using the run game and working in more play action overall.
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: And yes, you don't need to have a good run
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: game to have a good play action game, but having
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: a good run game helps your play action game that
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: much more, especially when you marry those concepts if you're running,
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: you know, if anybody follows me on social or watch
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: the show. Last year, one of my favorite run concepts
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: the Bill started to work in last year was that
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: offset eye blast counter that they would run where Reggie
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: Gilliam was in the back field, usually be out of
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: twenty one personnel. Reggie Gillium would be in the backfield.
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: That offset. Fullback Jackson Hawes comes in blast motion across
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: the formation. Reggie Gillium follows him, James Cook follows him,
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: so you get that blast counter. Hawes would lead it first.
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: It'll be like a blast counter YF. I love that concept.
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: But then they would run that exact same presentation and
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: it would be play action, and so that second level
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: would just get sucked in and Allen would just have
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: a wide open tight end in the high underneath or
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: the low intermediate or the mid intermedia to kind of
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: take advantage of when you have that run game present
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: that second level gets sucked in. More defenses feel like
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: they have to cheat a safety down or spin a
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: safety down. And then you're changing math. You're changing geometry,
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: you're changing the number counts, you're changing the spatial arrangement
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: on a defense. As much as physical or as much
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: as football is about physicality and blood and violence and
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: hitting people and smacking guys in the mouth and taking
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: their soul and all that stuff, it really is math
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: at the same time. It's numbers. It's angles, so it's arithmetic,
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: it's geometry, it's addition and subtraction. It's just I have
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: six guys. They have seven, I've got seven, they've got six. Okay,
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: if they only have three in this space versus two
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: in this space, here's the relative space that we have left.
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: Let's try to use this motion or this formation to
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: create leverage, to create this angle for this block to
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: take advantage of space. Everything is angles, numbers and space.
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: It is geometry, it is arithmetic, it is spatial relativity,
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff. But to kind of come
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: back to all that, the run game is important. I
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: don't know what the ratio was going to be. I
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: don't think they're ever going to be a pure run
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: first team. It's not going to be like seventy thirty
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: run or sixty forty run. But the run game matters.
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: You need to have a run game in today's NFL.
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: You cannot just with how defenses are disguising, with how
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: defenses are using personnel as a weapon, Big Nickel and
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: even certain base packages, but you know, tying in disguising
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: on the back end, disguising up front multiplicity in their fronts,
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: hybrid players blitzing at the right time, sims and creepers
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: cover zero hole blitzes, you know, glitch blitzes that the
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: Seahawks refer to him as when they tag it with
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: the sim pressure shout out to Cody Alexander when I
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: was talking to him in the DMZ the other night
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: about that there's just so many things a defense can
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: do to combat the pass, and that they do do
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: to combat the pass. That the run game is a
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: necessity now, and good offenses tend to have good run games.
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: So I just I that's an expectation for this year.
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: I don't think the Bills paying James Cook and then
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: having feeding him enough to be the leading rusher in
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: the NFL last year was an accident or an aberration.
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: They are going to feed James Cook, and they should.
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: James Cook is the second best player on this Bills team,
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: the entire team, and if you're going like player by player,
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen is obviously in the top ten for quarterbacks
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: in the NFL. Whether he's one, two, three, I don't care.
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen is a lock for top ten quarterback in
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: the league. James Cook is also a top ten running back.
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: James Cook is a top ten lock at his position.
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: I think you can make the case that James Cook
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: could be as high as five, but I think somewhere
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: between five and seven. Five and eight at worst is
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: where James Cook is. But James Cook is a top
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: ten running back in the league. I don't think there's
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: another player on the Bills that you can hands down
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: say is a lock as a top ten at their
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: position across the league. I think the closest right now
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: is Christian Benford. Some might have him in the top ten.
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: We've had this discourse a bunch on the show. I'm
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: not trying to open up that candle worms that people
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: yell at me. Again, I don't think he's a lot
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: for the top ten right now. I think he's close
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: and is on the cusp of that, and is in
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: the role of decks and is in that conversation. But
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: James Cook is the second best player on the Bills team.
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: He's one of the better running backs in football. He's
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: continued to improve at his position and improve in his
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: skill set. You know, his visions, improve his contact balance,
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: his vision, pacing, contact balance, yards after contact. He's improved
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: in all these aspects of year after year while not
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: losing burst and not losing home run ability. So it
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: makes sense that, Okay, who's your best player, Josh Allen,
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: who's your second best player, James Cook. You're gonna run
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: the football. It makes sense. And they have a good
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: offensive line to run the football, and they have good
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: tight ends and one of their tight ends is a
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: really really good blocker, and one of their other tight
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: ends is a pretty decent to good blocker. And they
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: have some really good run concepts in condensed formations and
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: spread looks that they can lean into. And they have
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: a good offensive line that can run, block, and they
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: like to mash, and they play in the cold, and
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: their quarterback can run and run the football. It makes sense.
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: It's good for the soul, and it matters. Again, we
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: are not in you know again passing and EPA and metrics.
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: It's all still valid. Passing the football matters, but we
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: have gotten away a bit from the true spread era
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: of the NFL, where you know, it was Diggs and
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: Beasley and John Brown and all those names and guys,
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: and it was, hey, let's chuck it forty to fifty
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: times a game and go from there. Now it's more like,
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: let's throw it twenty five to thirty times, let's get
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: under center, let's run the football, let's work in some
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: play action let's marry our play action to our run
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: concepts and then go from there. I always think it's
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: to see the amount of people like Bills fans who
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: hate on the Bills for running the ball and then
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: point out someone like Sean McVay who runs the football
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: Ben Johnson? How many? How many Bills fans wanted Ben
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: Johnson in these past couple of years? Also, I think
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: that's like a sneaky want it. If the Joe Brady
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: hire doesn't work out, how much is that like a
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: watershed moment maybe for the Bills in like did they fight?
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: I was thinking about this randomly earlier today, like did
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: the Bills fire Sean McDermott one year too late and
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: maybe miss out on having Ben Johnson previously? And you know,
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: maybe Ben Johnson was always gonna go to the Bears.
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know what was in his
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: head or his art. But if Joe Brady doesn't work out,
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: is it like, Oh, if they had fired McDermott the
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: year before, maybe they could have gotten Ben Johnson. But
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: Ben Johnson's the one that bunch of Bills fans are like, oh,
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: we want Ben Johnson. Fire McDermot, get Ben Johnson. Ben
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: Johnson's all about the ground game. Yes, he's great in
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: a lot of other areas that change things as well,
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: but the run game matters a lot too. It mattered
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: to him in Detroit, it mattered to him in Chicago.
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: He wields it and leans on it. So the run
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: game is important. It's not gonna go away the expectation
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: for me, and again for me saying the run game
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: is the foundation, or the tone setter, or the straw
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: that stirs the drink. That doesn't mean it's the dominant
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: aspect from a usage standpoint. It doesn't mean it's going
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: to be more run than it is passed. It just
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: means the run game matters. The run game is important.
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: The run game is where this offense starts and then goes.
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: And that is good, and that's okay even though you
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: have Josh Allen, that's still good. Matthew Stafford won the
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: MVP last year with a really good run game. That matters. Again,
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: the Rams offense last year was first in rushing Dvoway
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: and they were also very good in a lot of
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: other metrics as well. So if you're just using that
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: as the example, like well, they got Josh Allen, It's like, well,
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: the reigning MVP had a really good run game, and yeah,
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: let's look at it holistically, but yeah, they're gonna have
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: a good run game. It's gonna be the foundation. It's
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: gonna be the straw, theer's the drink, and I expect
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: it to be good, though I think it could take
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: a step back, but step back could be instead of
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: the third best run game, they're fifth or six. Either way,
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be a top ten run game
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: and it's gonna be important, and it's gonna matter. Bomb
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: bomb bah, what do we get? Royce says, I can
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: see Cook's rushing total for the season dropping to around
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: twelve hundred yards, still really good, though more involved in
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: the passing game. Perhaps, I think that's fair could see that.
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's hard to just consistently be like, oh, yeah,
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: this guy is gonna be like a thirteen hundred yard
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: plus rusher. That's a hard thing to do, even with
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: the added game, but that's fair. Arie says the run
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: game definitely takes a step back. I also think because
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: we face so many explosive offenses this season, we can't
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: just sit back and run the ball like we did
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: last season, or you could play it on the other
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: foot and say, because you face so many explosive offenses,
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: you don't want to give them the ball back, so
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: you do just want to run the ball, kind of
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: like what the Ravens used to do against the Chiefs
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: when the Chiefs were really airing it out, and it
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: was like, no, let's keep the ball. Let's get some
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: twelve play eighty four yards seven minute long drives and
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: keep the ball away from that other explosive offense. You
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: can play Devil's advocate to it, but I get what
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: you're going for. Charles says, curious to see the influence
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: that Pete Carmichael has on the offense. I am as well.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: I'm interested to see especially what he does from a
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: running back pass catching standpoint. All those times in New
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: Orleans with Sean Payton and you know the lineage are
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: pass catching running backs there, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sprolls
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: and Alvin Kamara and even mark Ingram to a degree,
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: you know, what do they incorporate there from the running
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: back pass catching game? And could that be the way
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: kind of to Roy's point earlier, like, do they maybe
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: unlock that in James Cook a little bit. So we see,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: you know, some yardage drop in James Cook from a
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: rushing standpoint, but we see an uptick in a pass
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: catching productivity standpoint for James Cook monkey business. As of
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: the players on offense don't exceed expectations and executed high
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: levels the bills. I'm winning a super Bowl. The league
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: knows their player tendencies. Now kind of fair, we'll see.
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: R J says, I always thought sixty forty is a
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: perfect mix of pastor run. I like that as well.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: I am very fine with a sixty forty. And then
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: it could very week to week, right, we might see
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: week where it's fifty five to forty five, We might
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: see week where it's fifty to fifty, might see week
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: where it's sixty five, thirty five, seventy thirty. But I
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: think that sixty forty is a fair holistic overall, like
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: aggregation or average of everything off. Cory says, how much
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: will the loss of Reggie Gilliam hurt our run game?
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: I hope not much. I think it will hurt because
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: you're gonna essentially lose a personnel grouping. You're not gonna
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: do a lot of twenty one or twenty two. But
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: I think they can make up for it by leaning
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: into more twelve and more thirteen and then even maybe
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: using Jackson Hawes as a full back in some looks.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: But I think they'll largely be okay, but it will hurt.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: He's physical, he's a good run blocker, He's good in
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: the run game. Not having him is going to limit
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: what they can do with fullback and then limit some
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: of the personnel usage. All the comments of of of math,
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: for all the math apologies, and that's funny, Andy says.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: Miss Andy says, I think we'll find out if Benford
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: is top ten once we have a solid C B
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: two opposite of him. Could be. I also think too,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: if we see more man coverage and match coverage this
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: year under Jim Leonard, like I believe we will, it'll
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: be interesting to kind of see how Benford holds up
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: in that role or what they do with Benford, Like
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: is he the guy that you know they're locking on
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: the solo receiver into the boundary. Are they playing him
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: more to the field, you know, what role are they
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: giving him? Is he shadowing ones? How is he playing
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: how much solo coverage and true one on ones is
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: he seeing are they putting him on an island in respective?
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: Areas interested to see what what Benford does in this
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: defense and the corners in general. I'm just see what
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: Harrison becomes, Ignosen becomes, because I do expect, again, like
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: I've said, a coverage change, more single high more cover
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: one straight up man coverage, more cover three, more match
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: coverages from a single eye, and to my perspective, that's
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: where I'm at. Charles appreciated the rollerdex pole, Thank you
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: very much. Appreciate Yet mm hmmm. R f D says,
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: get first downs in new clock. That's fair, Joe James.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: I think James, you put this in want to talk
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: about running ball and they want to steal souls. It's
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: a good way to steal someone sol run the ball
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: right through their verse. Argie says, not getting Ben Johnson
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: last year I think will be the thing that sticks
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: with us decades in the future. Man, I hope not.
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: This comment is, how much do you think we will
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: get skyther Beell involved unless there's injuries. I think it's
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: gonna be minimal as a rookie because I'm just basing
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: it off a pure snapshare or target share, however you
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: want to look at it. You're gonna have a run game,
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: so James Cook is gonna get a bunch of looks
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: the past catching game. If everyone stays healthy, the hierarchy
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: is Kincaid, DJ Moore, Khalil Shakir, maybe the running backs,
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: so like at best as a pass catcher. At best,
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: I think Skyler Bell could be the fourth option this year.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: Behind can keep some combination of Kincaid more Sekir. If
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: everyone stays healthy from a touches standpoint, he's fifth at
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: best because you're factoring all the runs and carries that
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: James Cook is going to get him, maybe even passes
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: as well. So at best you're doing Yeah, at best,
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: you're the fifth option in the pecking order if everyone
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: stays healthy from a target standpoint, or you know, a
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: touches standpoint. So I think some dudes ahead of him
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: have to get hurt, and then again he has to
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: you know, if Keon Coleman has another good training camp
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: and offseason like he did last year, does he stay
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: ahead of Skyler Bell. I don't know how out they
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: are on Keon. You know what Bell has to do.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: Bell's been banged up a little bit this offseason as well,
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: So I think at best, at best, I shouldn't say
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: at best, if everyone stays healthy. At best, he's the
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: fifth option for touches, behind some combination of Cook Kincaid.
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: More secure that top four is set. So then if
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: there's injuries, maybe he creeps into that a little bit.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: But then again he'd have to He'd have to supplant
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: Josh Palmer, He'd have to supplant Keyan Coleman. So I
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: think it's minimal as a rookie. I think he's more
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: of an an auxiliary piece. Maybe get some he get
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: him ball on some screens, no jokes, or you know,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: some of those runs with pass tags, or just send
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: him deep or use him as a stretch guy horizontally vertically,
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: kind of push him down the field a little bit.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: See what you can kind of get. Uh. Next piece,
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: I'm want to talk about it even I didn't want
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: to talk about I mentioned earlier the Bills run defense,
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: talk about a bunch of this offseason. I've got some
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: metrics to kind of really drive it home. But I
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: really again in terms of putting a button button bo
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: on some of these things before we head into camp.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: This for the run defense, I think I think this
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: one is huge. I think just as the run matters
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: on offense, run defense matters on defense. I think if
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: the Bills succeed as a run defense in twenty twenty six,
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: I think it will be largely due to Jim Leonard
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: and or scheme, you know, whether it's his play calling, sequencing,
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: scheme and coaching, teaching, whatever it is. Like, if they're
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: middling to good versus the run, I think it's because
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: of scheme and Jim Leonard pressing the right buttons at
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: the right time. I think their edges are going to
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: be solid and good against the run. Rousseau, Chubb, even Parker.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: Once Hoyt comes back, we'll see what he looks like.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: But even if it's just the top three of Rousseau, Chubb,
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: and Parker, your edges are going to be good against
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: the run. Their spine is just what's questionable to me.
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: And now that they're in an odd front defense as
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: base that that's spine, I'm including the defensive ends, defensive
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: tackle and then up to the linebackers, and then even
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: from a safety standpoint, I know col Bishop, everybody's high
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: on cold Bishop. I think he had a really encouraging
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: improved year last year. He still struggled with misstackles, especially
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: coming from depth, so I still think that's a questionable piece.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: But as a reminder, for twenty twenty five, the Bill's
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: rush defense thirty first in rush defense DVAA thirtieth and
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: EPA per rush thirty first in runs of ten or
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: more yards allowed with sixty five. They were last so
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: thirty second in yards after contact per attempt at three
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: point nine to three, which was the worst of any
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: defense since twenty nineteen. They were twentieth in success rate,
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: so middling there or a little below middling there. And
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: then their best aspect was they were ninth and stuff
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: rate at seventeen point six percent. Again, stuff righters runs
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: that go for zero or less yards. So the only
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: thing to save them is they were able to create
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: some negative plays or you know, hold running backs to
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: gains of zero. So it was either they were getting
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: gashed or they were creating some negative plays. Now, a
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: lot of the negative plays that they created, and I
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: did a breakdown on this during the season leading into
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, was they were executing run blitzes, especially once
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: the second half came around in games, they were attacking, attacking, attacking,
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: and part of the reason they did that was because
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: they were not holding up at the point of attack.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: I think that's still gonna be a worry for them
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: this year. They're gonna be a movement based defense, which
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: is fine, but you can't always be a movement based
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: defense or only be a movement based defense. At certain points,
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: you need to be able to hold your ground. You
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: need to be able to hold strong at the point
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: of attack against base blocks, against double teams. You need
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: to play gap in half or two gap at times.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: You need to be able to squeeze some things. You
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: need to be able to play react attack instead of
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: just attack react. It can't always just be run blitzes
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: and run stunts and games and movement and slanting and
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: spiking and triggering and shooting. It can't always be that.
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: It can but you might get caught out sometimes, and
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: so it's good to have, again, a mix of both.
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: The analogy I keep using for this, and I've used
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: this for years. I think I took this from Nate
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: Tice the first time I had a Mama show in
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: like twenty twenty one. You know you're playing rock paper scissors,
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: you'd be great to throw all three. You want to
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: be able to throw rock, throw paper, and throw scissors.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: You know, it's not ideal to be like, well, I'm
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: playing rock paper scissors, but I can only throw paper
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: and scissors. You ideally can throw all three. And so
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: if you're playing run defense, it's cool to be like,
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: yeah we can. We have some really good rum blitzes,
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: some good run stunts. We can win with movement, but
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: that's just I don't know scissors will go with Like,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: it'd be nice to just have rock and rock is
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: just now we got some dudes. Nice Andy, what about
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: lizards spot? That's good Rock paper scissors, lizard spot. It's
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: nice if you also have some guys where it's like, yeah,
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: well we're just gonna have this guy just hunker down
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: on the line of scrimmage and he's not getting displaced.
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: You need some displacement mitigation at the same time that
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: you do with movement. You need to be able to
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: kind of do both, or for me at least in
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: my liking, but also just with how run defense is
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: being played and how teams are running at you. And yes,
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: you know teams want to run at you. So maybe
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: you can attack vertically and match their vertical run with
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: vertical movement of your own. But at a certain point,
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: run defense comes down to guys with the right skill
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: set and play style and understanding to be able to
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: win up front. Eight blocks change the math right. If
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: you want to play these two high defensive structures, you
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: need dudes on the defensive line who change the math.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: You know, if you've got six guys in the box
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: and the offense has seven potential blockers or even six
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: potential blockers, you need somebody to win. If it's even numbers,
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: you need somebody to beat somebody. Or if they have
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: one A plus one in the numbers advantage, you need
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: somebody to occupy two guys. You need one to take
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: up too. So you change the math right, And I
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: don't know if they have math changers from an individual
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: standpoint in the spine right, and then you add that
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: in with okay, like they're smaller at the second level.
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: If offensive lineman get to the second level, Bernard's gonna
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: get buried. Like he plays a very movement based, beat
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: guys at the spot type of game. We'll see what
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: we get from Dorian or Caleb E. Larms or whoever's
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: healthy and wins that other linebacker spot. Maybe it ends
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: being someone else, but run defense is gonna be huge.
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: They were horrible last year against the run and then
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: also within that too, Like I know, the adage for
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: a while has been like, oh, well, you know, if
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: I could pick, you know, one thing for my defense
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: to be bad at, it would be defending the run.
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: And I get that, and I understand too how it's
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: like technically true from again like we talked about earlier,
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: like from an EPA per rush versus EPA per pass standpoint,
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: But that argument only holds water, or largely only holds
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: water if you're not deficient and a vulnerability in that aspect.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: Like you can be middling or slightly below middling and
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: be fine ish, you can be like sixteenth to twentieth
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: in a bunch of run defense metrics and be fine
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: and you can tread water. But you can't be like
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: the Bills were last year and be next to last
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: largely across the board. It's just it's not sustainable. It
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: creates a massive vulnerability, it creates a massive deficiency. And
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: so I've always I understood that notion of like, oh, well,
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: if I could be bad against the run or bad
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: against the pass, I'd rather be bad against the run.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: And I get that, But there's a difference between being
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: bad and being a complete vulnerability liability and being deficient.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: It's like you could say, like, oh, yeah, you know,
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: like I'd rather be stabbed with a fork than stabbed
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: with a machete. But if you get stabbed in the
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: eye with a fork, that's pretty damaging, right, So yeah, like, yo, yeah,
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: you know you want to get stabbed with their shendy
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: or fork. Can be like, okay, I'll take the fork.
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: If they stab you in the eye, that's really bad.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: Like that's what That's a big problem. So I just
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: think there's levels to it, and those blanket statements don't
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: necessarily work anymore with where the NFL is, with where
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: modern football is, the trends that we're seeing, how offenses
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: are attacking, how defenses are built, how the pendulum is
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: swinging season to season, who's copying what, who's innovating, what's happening.
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: It all points to the run game mattering and stopping
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: the run mattering, and Jim Leonard's first presser with the
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: Bills this year He talked early on about the foundation
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: for the defense is stopping the run. So this defensive
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: mind that everybody and their mother loves. Now the first
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: one of the first things he said was, well, you know,
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: we have to stop the run. That's what sets the
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: that's what sets the defense, that's what does everything right.
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: And so many of these fun things that Jim Lennard
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: wants to do, all these sims and creepers and blitzes,
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: blitzing the formation, you know, attacking protection rules, attacking the back,
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: attacking the tight end, all this stuff. You can only
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: do that if you get to known passing down in
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: distances and situations. That's the only way you get to
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: do it. And there's not one way to get there,
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: but a good chunk of it, or a good starting
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: point is stopping the run on early downs, and you
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: know the old adage, earning the right to rush the quarterback.
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: That's kind of where you are right. All these fun
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: exotic looks and designer stuff that you can do with pressure,
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: you can't get to it if you're constantly facing third
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: and three, or if you're giving up first downs on
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: the ground, or if you're giving up eight yards on
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: first down, on the ground and just getting churned through
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: and churned over left and right and left and right.
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: You just need to be competent or run defense. And
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: I don't know and or think the Bills have the
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: guys in their spine to play at the point of
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: attack and be stout at least consistently, and especially against
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: better offenses and better run schemes. So if they're competent
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: or even good as a run defense, I think it's
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: going to be largely due to Jim Leonard scheming them
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: to that ability. The only thing holding me back from
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: worrying about the run defense full time is my faith
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: in Jim Leonard as a schemer, as a designer, as
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: a caller, and as a teacher, and him understanding the
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: importance of stopping the run and just what he is philosophically,
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: identity wise, schematically, structurally, all that kind of stuff. Otherwise
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: I'd be much much more worried, much much much more worried.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: Some other random notes here, other pieces of one to
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: talk about. We're gonna see, you know, expectations from the defense.
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: Higher blitz rate overall. I think overall blitz rate pass
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: blitz is run blitzes thegeracy, more of that, more simulated pressures,
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: more creeper pressures or single high coverage, more man more
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: match coverage. We will see that also, something that I
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: think is very interesting to note. I have it on
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: my Twitter. Uh. I am interested to see. This isn't
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: so much of an expectation as something I'm just kind
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: of noting and wondering what this looks like this year. Uh,
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen his ratio of pressures being turned into sacks. Traditionally,
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: he's been one of the best in the league. So
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: we're going from twenty eighteen to you know forward. Twenty
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: eighteen his rate was sixteen point three percent, twenty nineteen
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: eighteen point nine, and then twenty twenty eleven point eight,
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty one ten point six, twenty twenty two fifteen
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: point four, and then the last three seasons. Twenty twenty
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: three his pressure to sack ratio was ten percent. That
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: was the lowest and or best out of forty one
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: qualifying quarterbacks. Twenty twenty four, his pressure to sack ratio
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: was nine percent, which was the second lowest and or
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: best out of forty four qualifying quarterbacks. And if I
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: remember correctly, I think The lowest was Derek Carr, and
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: he didn't play a full season, with the sample size
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: was still a little wonky. Even the car qualified, so
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: ten percent in twenty twenty three, nine percent twenty twenty four,
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: the best out of forty one qualifying quarterbacks in twenty
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: twenty three, the second lowest and or best out of
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: forty four qualifying quarterbacks in twenty twenty four. His pressure
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: to sack ratio last year more than doubled what it
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: was in twenty twenty four. His pressure to sack ratio
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: was eighteen point six percent in twenty twenty five. That
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: was the highest it's been since twenty nineteen and the
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: second highest of his career. Now, a bunch of those
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: pieces are a bunch of things, I should say go
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: into that right, guys not getting open, Allen setting the
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: protection wrong, offensive lineman getting beat, offensive lineman getting hurt,
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: the Bills getting into known and or predictable passing situations,
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: true dropback situations where defense defenses could really game up
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: their five man protections and kind of put that into
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: a bind. So it's not all on Alan, it's not
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: all on the receivers, it's not all on the offensive line.
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: It's it's a mix of several buckets. It's it's eggs
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: and several baskets. But I do think it's something to
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: notice because this is something that I have I've talked
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: about for years of Allen, Like my favorite thing about
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: him are the thing that I think he's best at
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: in the league for any quarterback, has been not allowing
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: pressures to be converted into sackson If you don't necessarily
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: have to know the numbers, but you think about it,
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: all those times where somebody shoots into the backfield, whether
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: it's a linebacker, defensive ended defensive tackle, and he shakes
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: him in the backfield, scrambles, runs, scrambles, throws, stiff arms
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: the defensive lineman in the backfield and escapes and evades
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: and all that kind of stuff. Right, It's it's been
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: a superpower of his. And I wonder, is that change
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: in pressure to sack ratio last year isn't indicative of
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: something more? Is it a one off year or is
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: it is the athleticism declining a little bit? Has the
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: bills protection rules really been found out? Was it purely
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: because you know, Alan's sitting in the pocket for three
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: and a half to four seconds waiting for somebody to
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: come open, and nobody's coming open, and then he starts
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: to try harder and it's snowballs and he gets himself
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: into trouble. Again, it's a multitude of him, you know,
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: when you watch the sacks last year, you see a
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: bunch of different culprits, and so again, sometimes it's allan himself,
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: like he's you know, adjusting the protection and he's not
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: doing it correctly, or he thinks he's gonna see one
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: thing and he sees something else. So it's on Alan,
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: it's on the offensive line, it's on the receivers, it's
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: on Brady for the concepts that are being called in
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: a little too predictive and too predictable. So again there's
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: a lot of eggs and lots of baskets. But essentially
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: his pressure to sack ratio more than doubling what it
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: was the year before, and you know, eight point six
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: percentage points higher than what it was in twenty twenty three,
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: when he's been the best at this thing for the
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: past two years and one of the best for the
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: last five or so years to now, hitting you know,
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: the second worst ratio of his entire career in the
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: worst since twenty nineteen. I think that's notable and something
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: to track. Also some Josh Allen numbers. The percent of
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: passing yards for Josh Allen that come from yards after
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: catch by season twenty eighteen forty five point nine percent,
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: twenty nineteen forty five point seven, twenty twenty forty one
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: point two, twenty twenty one thirty nine point one, twenty
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: twenty two thirty six point six. So we hit twenty
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: twenty two and it's really man the heavy majority of
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: Allen's passing yards are coming from an air yard standpoint,
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: because only thirty six point six percent of his passing
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: yards in twenty twenty two came from yards after the catch,
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: and then we started making big upticks. Twenty twenty three,
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: forty eight point five percent of his passing yards came
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: after catch, twenty twenty four, fifty four point one percent
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: of his passing yards came after catch, and then last
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: year twenty twenty five, I have fifty four point three
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: percent of Josh Allen's passing yards came after the catch.
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: So a big jumpus essentially as full almost a full
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: eighteen percentage point increase from twenty twenty five versus where
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: he was in twenty twenty two. Now, correlate that with
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen's percentage of throws that go past the first
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: down marker by season. So this is twenty eighteen through
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty five forty eight point three, forty five point one,
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: forty three point six, forty four point five, forty five
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: point nine, and then we go down thirty eight point
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: four in twenty twenty three, forty two point eight and
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty four thirty nine point seven in twenty twenty five,
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: So he's only had two seasons below forty percent with
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: percentage of throws past the first down marker. And it
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: was twenty twenty three at thirty eight point four and
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: last year at thirty nine point seven. And again that
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: makes sense if we're thinking about it right, If his
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: percentage of passing yards after the catcher going up, his
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: percentage of throws past the first down marker could likely
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: and correlate be going down because you know, it's dumping
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: the ball underneath, guys are getting yards after the catch.
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: We're seeing you know, drags, and we're seeing mesh. We
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: are seeing these RPO bubble actions. Even though it's more
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: like runs with pass tags or pass package plays. I
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: should say the receivers are starting to do more of
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: the work, and so that makes sense. You know, percentage
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: of yards passing yards after the catch going up correlating
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: with the percentage of throws past the first down marker
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: going down, and that also correlates with Josh Allen's average
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: depth of target by season. So again we're going from
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: twenty eighteen to twenty twenty five eleven point seven, ten
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: point one, nine point five, nine point three, ten point six,
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: eight point seven, nine point two, seven point eight. Last
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: year twenty twenty five seven point eight yards average depth
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: of target, the lowest of his career. His previous low
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: was eight point seven in twenty seven point eight is
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: significantly lower than any other season in his career. So
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: those four advanced metrics for Alan I think are very
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: interesting to note, pressure to sacks going up a little bit. Again,
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: we'll see if last year's one off. But the bigger
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: trends are percentage of his yards being due to yak
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: going up year after year after year, the past several
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: percentage of throws past the sticks going down almost a
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: kind of a similar rate, and then his average up
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: of target also going down from a similar standpoint, I
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: am interested to see. And you know, Allen wasn't bad
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: from a deep ball perspective last year. He started out
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: bad but then got better. I think as the year
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: went on. From an EPA per dropback standpoint and a
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: lot of you know, deep throw metrics deep throws being
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: classified as twenty yards or more twenty plus air yards.
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: He finished largely middling, but sort of more like top ten.
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: But I do think being able to be a threat
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: deep is going to matter for this offense again. Again,
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: they were a really good offense last year, even with
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: the struggles, even with all the mesh memes and jokes,
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: even without having any wide receivers or healthy wide receivers,
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: even with Kincaid being hurt, even with all these frustrating
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: moments and people wanting Brady's head on a stick, they
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: were a really good offense from a metrics standpoint, kind
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: of like what they were under Ken Dorsey several years ago.
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: But no one ever wants to talk about that separate
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: conversation for another time. But I do think they needed
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: a pressure reliever and somebody to create space, be a
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: threat downfield and create stretch horizontally and vertically. Now you've
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: got DJ Moore to do that. You've also got skyther
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: Bell who can do that. I do think at a
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: certain point again, and you have Kincaid who can win downfield,
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: especially when you get matched up against safeties and linebackers.
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: But I do you think you are going to need
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: to push the ball downfield and beat some defenses downfield?
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: You know, you watch the Rams. You know, how are
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: the Rams able to put up points on you know,
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks defense. They're gouging them. You know, granted it's
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: the sequencing of what they're doing on first down and
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: what they're doing on late downs, but it's them being
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: able to hit chunk plays down the field to Puka
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: and there are other wide receivers even Seattle. Right, there
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: were times where Seattle couldn't run the ball for crap
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: during the year, and their offense was kind of for
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: as good as it was and good as Kubiak was,
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: they sputtered in some areas overall, and especially you know,
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: at times specifically, But then they're hitting shot plays and
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: chunk plays to JSN downfield. They're hitting some shot plays
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: to Rashid Shahet every now and again too. They're hitting
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: some shot plays to the tight end. They're hitting these,
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: you know, fifteen twenty yard corners to aj Barner and
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: hitting aspects to their other tight ends in some ways.
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: Again another this is just another random example, but also
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 1: against the Seahawks defense, like the Buccaneer Seahawks game earlier
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: in the year, which was the best uniform matchup of
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: the year with the Creamsicles versus the old school Seahawks Unis.
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: Baker is just letting it fly to a Mecca Buca
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: and anybody downfield, and they're hitting the seams, they're pushing
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: the ball downfield, they're hitting deep posts, they're throwing it
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: over the top of the defense. And at a certain
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: point you are going to need the deep ball to
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: be a significant factor for you. So I'm interested to
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: see if that starts to swing a little bit. So
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: do we see average depth of targets start to go
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: up for Josh Allen a little bit? Do we see
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: more shot plays called either in straight drop back or
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: play action stuff? Is it? You know, it is the
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: lack of that Alan is the lack of that Brady
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: is the lack of it. Well, they haven't felt like
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: they've had guys that could get downfield or win downfield. Well,
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: now you've got Dj Moore who at the very least
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: gives you some vertical stretch and a healthy dealt CA
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: cage and help as well. So I think those are
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: also a little h intro sting nuggets and tidbits to
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: kind of keep an eye on. And that's not so
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: much of an expectation, No, My expectation is the deep
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: ball matters. Again, an explosives matter. You can be kind
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: of middling in success rate at times, but if you
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: can be you know, a good chunk epa per play
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: type team, or you're generating explosives, whether it's explosive runs
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: or explosive passes, like especially with starting usually further up
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: the field now because in the new kickoff rules, if
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: you hit an explosive pass again some places, some sites
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: try an explosive passes like fifteen or more yards, some
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: places it's twenty. But if you're starting with the ball
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: on your own thirty five and you hit a fifteen
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 1: or a twenty yard pass on your first set of downs,
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 1: there you're already at midfield or over midfield. And now
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: if you're a team like the Bills, you're probably in
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: four down territory because if it gets the fourth and
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: or you're gonna run a QB sneak, or you can
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: do whatever the hell you want. It just takes one
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 1: chunk play through the air to get essentially over midfield
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: maybe even into field goal range. Runs are similar, like right,
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: like even you know, a ten yard run is still impactful.
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: If you're at your own thirty five and you rip
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 1: off a ten yard run on first down. Now you're
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: at your own forty five. You're closer to midfield. Now
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: you're starting to get into four down territory. You can
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: treat second down like maybe another first down. You can
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: treat third down like a second second down. It starts
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: to open up so many things for you. So explosives
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: are gonna matter a lot. And it doesn't have to
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: just be like air yard explosive. It doesn't mean like, well,
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: you have to hit a twenty five yard pass and
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: you have to throw it twenty five yards in the
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: air on a deep comeback or you know something like that.
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: It could be you know, hey, I threw the ball
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: five yards and then Kalisha kir broke two tackles and
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: took it for twenty five yards or thirty yards. Just
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 1: explosives will matter. And I think with how defenses are
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: going where they want things to be completed orneath so
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 1: they can and tackle and force you into choke points.
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: Especially the better defenses, you kind of need to push it.
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: You need to back them up, You need to attack
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: them where they're protecting the most. Improve like, no, we
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: can push the ball vertical. We will, and it's a threat,
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: it's viable. We can do it. And whether you're completing
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 1: it or having a guy like Dj Moore who's athletic
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: and can track the ball and go up and get it,
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: maybe draw some pass interference calls, get some mismass creation.
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: With Dalon Kincaid, my expectation is the deep ball will
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: matter again for offenses in twenty twenty six, but maybe
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: even more and especially for the Bills. And I think
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: that's why you get a guy like Dj Moore and
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: get a guy like Skyler Bell. You get guys with stretch. Again,
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: they provide a horizontal stretch as well, but they provide
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: that vertical stretch. They provide somebody who can take the
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: top off the defense, open up the underneath and the
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 1: intermediate and or even potentially win downfield with their speed
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 1: or athleticism. And I think that's going to matter again.
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 1: And it's good to be able to operate on all
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: fastt skin playing rock paper scissors. You want to be
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: able to throw rock, paper and scissors. One thing that
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: I would never throw is a piece of One Pied Pizza.
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: Why because is the best pizza in Buffalo. The only
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: place I would throw a piece of one Pipe Pizza
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: would be into my mouth, because it is delicious, the
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: best pizza in Buffalo, New York. And I don't say
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: that because they sponsor the show. They sponsor the show
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: because I truly and sincerely believe that One Pie Pizza
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: is the best pizza in Buffalo, New York. Sweet Sauce, Pie, Puppa,
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 1: char Pepperoni, a great different variety of specialty pizzas, including
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 1: one named after the brand, different toppings combinations. They'll chop
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: them all ups, prickle them evenly across the pie. They
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: make their own homemade blue cheese. They have really good salads.
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: They make a great breakfast pizza. They have a catering
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 1: division called Elevated Catering of Buffalo. It is phenomenal homemade
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: mac and cheeses, more salads. You can get the pizza
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: as well. They do chicken rice dishes like real you know,
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: pizzas are real food, but like real catering type of
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: event food, and it is phenomenal. I've had them do
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: several events for me over the past couple of summers
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: that it's been phenomenal. And on top of all that,
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: if the good food and deliciousness isn't enough for you,
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 1: they're also very giving to the community in the city
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: of Buffalo at large, whether it's partnering with Roswell and
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: Knockout Cancer, partnering with the SPCA, the Alzheimer's Foundation, Toys
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: for Tots. They're good on a multitude of fronts and
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: in a multitude of ways. I always say they're really
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: good people making really good food. So go out get
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 1: yourself some one PI pizza. Find me online menu in
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 1: the episode show notes. Whether you're on YouTube or whichever
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: podcast the Apple platform you're listening to this show on,
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 1: and you won't be disappointed. You know, maybe you're going
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: to training camp next week and you want to get
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: some pizza on the way back, or you're just excited
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: about the nice weather we've been having, or it's the
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: upcoming weekend, or whatever the hell. You just want to
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: get some delicious food, get some one Pi pizza. Or
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 1: maybe you're from out of town and you'll be at
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: high Mark Stadium on Saturday, August eighth for the Blue
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: and Red screat Image, and you know, like, you know what,
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go into Buffalo and I'm going to see
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 1: the new stadium and see the Bills play in the scrimmage.
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: And I'm also gonna get some amazing pizza WHI I'm
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: at it By Pizza. Or maybe you're staying overnight and
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 1: you're gonna drive back to Rochester, Syracuse or wherever on Sunday.
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: You know what, get some pizza for the trip on.
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: Get your someone By Pizza, the best pizza in Buffalo,
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: New York. You will not be dispointed. I'm gonna throw
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: up the banners as tootles, folks, because we'll start to
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 1: wind down here. I hope you folks weren't disappointed with
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 1: this episode. If you enjoyed this episode, please please please
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  Speaker 1: with more frequency now with the with training camp starting
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  Speaker 1: you folks enjoy this episode. Thank it everybody who tuned
• 1:33:18
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• 1:33:39
  Speaker 1: I hope everyone enjoys the rest of their evening, enjoys
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: the rest of their week. If anyone's at training camp,
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 1: feel free to give me a shout and I'll be
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: in the bleachers watching from the same spot as I
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 1: kind of always do. And yeah, help you and your
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 1: family and friends and loved ones are all doing well
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: and staying safe. Be kind to one another, take care
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 1: of one another. I will see you when I see you.
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much for the kind words that are
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 1: starting to roll in the chat now. Regular watchers know
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 1: that I see them and I acknowledge them, but I
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: feel corny pulling them up when I'm by myself, because
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 1: it's just weird to pull up pats on the back
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 1: for yourself. But I see them, I appreciate them. Thank
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 1: you very much for the kind words. Thank you everybody
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 1: who tuned in God's speed, and as always go Bills