Latest / THE DAILY BRIEF / Iran war_ It appears the US is poised to escalate further

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Iran war_ It appears the US is poised to escalate further · THE DAILY BRIEF

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  Speaker 1: Six days into the US Israeli attack on Iran, Iran
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  Speaker 1: has retaliated with more missiles and drones aimed at Israel
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  Speaker 1: and at US bases in neighboring Gulf states. Qatar's defense
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  Speaker 1: ministry says it's working to intercept the missiles, but columns
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  Speaker 1: of black smoke could be seen in the skies above
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  Speaker 1: the capital Doha. Israel also confirmed multiple incoming attacks. Emergency
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  Speaker 1: services examined the scene of a projectile impact near Tel Aviv.
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  Speaker 1: The IDF has begun a large scale wave of strikes
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  Speaker 1: against Iranian infrastructure. The Iranian news media reported explosions in Tehran.
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  Speaker 1: Iran's Veterans Foundation says the death toll from US and
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  Speaker 1: Israeli attacks has risen to one two hundred and thirty
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  Speaker 1: in while Britain is sending additional fighter jets to Qatar.
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  Speaker 1: By Minister Sakir Starmer said the four typhoon aircraft will
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  Speaker 1: join a squadron already in the Gulf state to help
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  Speaker 1: defend against Iranian missiles drones. On Monday, and Iranian drones
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  Speaker 1: struck in the Royal Air Force Base on acriterering on Cyprus.
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  Speaker 1: Well Jasmine. L Gamal is a Middle East policy analyst
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  Speaker 1: and the founder and CEO of Averros Strategies. She previously
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  Speaker 1: served as Middle East Advisor to the Pentagon. Welcome to
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  Speaker 1: d W nearly a week in. What's your assessment of
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  Speaker 1: where things in this war stand?
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  Speaker 2: Well, thank you so much for having me. I mean,
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  Speaker 2: as we've seen over the last few days, the President
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  Speaker 2: and his team have had a really hard time justifying
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  Speaker 2: to the American public, to Congress, to allies what exactly
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  Speaker 2: their reasoning was for going to war with Iran at
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  Speaker 2: this time and what its objectives are clearly clearly stated
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  Speaker 2: achievable objectives, as well as what the exit plan is.
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  Speaker 2: In classified briefings to Congress, Senators who have been in
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  Speaker 2: those briefings have said that they are very worried after
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  Speaker 2: getting those classes briefings, and they did not answer any
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  Speaker 2: of those questions. And in the meantime, as you've stated
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  Speaker 2: in your introduction, the damage is escalating rapidly, everything from
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  Speaker 2: strikes against allies, six US troops killed and over a
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  Speaker 2: thousand Iranians killed, other civilians killed in the region, and
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  Speaker 2: tens of thousands displaced so far within Iran, within Lebanon,
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  Speaker 2: and of course people stranded in the Gulf trying to
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  Speaker 2: get home. So it appears that the US is poised
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  Speaker 2: to escalate further, that it does not have a clearly
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  Speaker 2: defined victory point where it can say we've done what
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  Speaker 2: we want to do and we're now going to go home,
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  Speaker 2: and that leaves a lot more risk of uncontrolled escalation.
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  Speaker 2: I fear over the next several days and weeks.
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  Speaker 1: This is a joint US Israeli war. Do they both
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  Speaker 1: want the same thing?
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  Speaker 2: That's a really good question. Thank you for clarifying that
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  Speaker 2: they don't want exactly the same thing. The Israeli Prime
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  Speaker 2: Minister's objective is crystal clear and has been for decades,
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  Speaker 2: which is regime change in Iran. This has been the
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  Speaker 2: case ever since I worked at the Pentagon back in
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  Speaker 2: two thousand and eight. We know from extensive reporting New
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  Speaker 2: York Times, otherwise briefings from senators that he has been
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  Speaker 2: trying to convince the US President for months to strike
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  Speaker 2: the Iranian regime while it was down and weak. When
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  Speaker 2: it comes to US objectives, that is less clear. As
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  Speaker 2: you've seen, the President and his team have been retroactively
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  Speaker 2: trying to come up with a list of objectives to
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  Speaker 2: justify the war. President Trump started in the beginning by
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  Speaker 2: saying this was a regime change operation, essentially calling on
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  Speaker 2: the Iranian people to rise up and take advantage of
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  Speaker 2: the opportunity. And now the objectives have changed to I
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  Speaker 2: would describe it as a weakening of the regime, not
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  Speaker 2: necessarily regime change, but just appliant regime that is demilitarized
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  Speaker 2: and that does not pose a threat to the United
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  Speaker 2: States or its allies in the region.
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  Speaker 1: Let's take a look at some of today's developments and
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  Speaker 1: how much creedness do you give to reports emerging which
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  Speaker 1: have been denied by the White House that the CIA
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  Speaker 1: has been talking to Kurdish forces in northern Iraq about
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  Speaker 1: arming them so they can take on the regime in Tehran.
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  Speaker 2: These are some really murky reports that we're seeing. We
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  Speaker 2: have not actually seen any confirmation, credible confirmation of that.
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  Speaker 2: This was first reported in the Israeli press and then
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  Speaker 2: picked up by other outlets. There have been denials from
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  Speaker 2: various individuals, and the Iraqi government and the KRG, the
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  Speaker 2: Kurdistan Regional Government, have stepped in making it very clear
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  Speaker 2: that they have no interest in being dragged into this
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  Speaker 2: war and inviting Iranian retaliation. On Iraqi soil. So I
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  Speaker 2: would take those reports with a grain of salt until
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  Speaker 2: we know much more about the situation.
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  Speaker 1: Mind you, I suppose without sort of launching into conspiracy theories,
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  Speaker 1: they would say that, wouldn't they They would say that
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  Speaker 1: we're not going to with that this is a secret
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  Speaker 1: operation which we completely deny. This is what you would
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  Speaker 1: expect them to say.
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  Speaker 2: I think that there are a lot of actors at
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  Speaker 2: the moment who have an interest in leaking stories to
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  Speaker 2: the press to create an impression that may not be
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  Speaker 2: entirely accurate on the ground. There's a lot of disinformation
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  Speaker 2: so far going around in the swar and as you know,
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  Speaker 2: information warfare is just as critical in times of war
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  Speaker 2: as kinetic action, and so I just would caution not
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  Speaker 2: believing everything you read until we have a better understanding
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  Speaker 2: of the situation. Obviously, it goes through that steing that
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  Speaker 2: if that is the case, it would be disastrous and
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  Speaker 2: add just another element and layer of risk into the situation,
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  Speaker 2: attacking Iranian unity and fomenting civil unrest inside of Iran.
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  Speaker 2: But again, I would just wait until we have some
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  Speaker 2: more clarity on that.
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  Speaker 1: You advised the Pentagon help us understand this apparent chaos.
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  Speaker 1: We've seen two Gulf Wars and Gaza are now this
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  Speaker 1: Iran business. And it's become evident that little if any
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  Speaker 1: thought has been given to what happens when the bombing stops.
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  Speaker 1: How does that happen?
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  Speaker 2: That's a really good question. So, first of so, I
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  Speaker 2: was a civil servant for almost eight years at the Pentagon.
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  Speaker 2: Inside the Pentagon, I was not an outside advisor to
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  Speaker 2: the Pentagon, and so I worked during the Obama administration
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  Speaker 2: during some very tumultuous times. The Arab spring counter isis
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  Speaker 2: campaigns and civil war and so on, and it's very
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  Speaker 2: easy to see how political leadership without the proper checks
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  Speaker 2: and balances and with the right domestic political environment can
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  Speaker 2: take the country to war. If those checks and balances
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  Speaker 2: are not properly exercised. The president, the president is not
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  Speaker 2: running for another term. He cares less about what the
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  Speaker 2: American people think. He has allies in Congress and the
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  Speaker 2: Republican Party who are protecting him. You just saw the
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  Speaker 2: War Powers Resolution being failing yesterday in Congress because of
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  Speaker 2: not enough Republicans who were willing to vote against the president.
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  Speaker 2: And so you don't see that system of checks and
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  Speaker 2: balances being exercised carefully. You also have an international context
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  Speaker 2: where we've really seen the laws of armed conflict international
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  Speaker 2: law being frayed at the seams. Over the last couple
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  Speaker 2: of years, we've seen the war in Gaza violate nearly
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  Speaker 2: every international norm and law that we have seen in decades,
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  Speaker 2: and very little done about it by the proposed purported
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  Speaker 2: defenders of international law, including in Europe. And so it's
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  Speaker 2: not hard to see that that is a precedent and
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  Speaker 2: a slow boil that has resulted in where we are
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  Speaker 2: now again, with the huge push by the Israeli Prime
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  Speaker 2: minister to fulfill his objective of decades.
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  Speaker 1: Let's talk about where this is likely to end up,
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  Speaker 1: because it's clear that, as you say, Israel wants a
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  Speaker 1: weekened Iran. Israel would benefit by having a weakened Iran
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  Speaker 1: on its doorstep, but without this proper exit plan. The
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  Speaker 1: one thing that everyone seems to agree on is that
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  Speaker 1: even if the mulaza removed, chaos will probably ensue and
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  Speaker 1: civil war for a protective period before anything like democracy emerges.
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  Speaker 1: Is that how you see it.
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  Speaker 2: So that's one of the scenarios. I mean, obviously, in
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  Speaker 2: situations like this, it's difficult to predict, but there are
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  Speaker 2: several several scenarios. One is just a continued war of
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  Speaker 2: attrition where the Iranian regime. This is we're not just
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  Speaker 2: talking about the mullahs and clerics, right, We're talking about
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  Speaker 2: the IRGC, which which is very very hard line. We're
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  Speaker 2: talking about internally, the besiege paramilitary forces that are armed,
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  Speaker 2: and we're talking about proxies across the region that have
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  Speaker 2: already started to be activated by Iran. You're seeing happening
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  Speaker 2: in Lebanon right now with a very aggressive Israeli retaliation
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  Speaker 2: on Lebanon and scenes of chaos, absolute chaos coming out
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  Speaker 2: of Lebanon the last couple of days. And so one
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  Speaker 2: scenario is just you see more of that being drawn
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  Speaker 2: out and Iran raising the cost of this war more
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  Speaker 2: and more on the US, Israel and its allies, the
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  Speaker 2: Gulf countries for example. If that happens, you start to
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  Speaker 2: see a scenario where you have global trade disrupted, oil
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  Speaker 2: prices increasing, and more and more opportunities for miscalculation, and
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  Speaker 2: continued armed conflict, violent conflict. The other scenario is that
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  Speaker 2: you could have a supreme leader be appointed that was
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  Speaker 2: even more hardline than the one before, and you have
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  Speaker 2: continued Iranian aggression and conflict. There are very few positive scenarios.
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  Speaker 2: I won't take up too much of your time laying
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  Speaker 2: out the worst case scenarios, but you get the drift.
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  Speaker 1: I do, and it's very clear, and I thank you
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  Speaker 1: for that. Jam Jasmine el Gamal from Avro Strategies
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  Speaker 2: Thanks for having me