Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 15 - 4/3/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:19Hello and welcome to episode 15 of the All Systems Go Sports
- 0:24Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
- 0:27I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
- 0:33Happy Wednesday? We are halfway through our work
- 0:36week, but more importantly, happy bounce back Wednesday
- 0:39because after a pretty much disgusting, awful nothing went
- 0:43our way. Monday where we went one and
- 0:44four. Had a nice bounce back yesterday
- 0:464/2 and 1 + 0.93 units. Had a couple big wins with the
- 0:51Milwaukee Brewers to start the day.
- 0:53Got a little bit dicey there, but got a three to two win.
- 0:55Luckily the bullpen was able to nail that one down.
- 0:58Had a big one with the Boston Red Sox.
- 0:59Had to stay up late if you're on the East Coast like me.
- 1:02Had to tie it up late. Went into extras.
- 1:04There was an epic 10th inning where a bunch of guys got on the
- 1:07Red Sox found a way to get out of it.
- 1:08Were able to win that thing and extras, which was nice.
- 1:10Also got Seton Hall on the money line.
- 1:12Seton Hall absolutely rolled, which was great to see with that
- 1:16big sharp line move as well as the experience there with a lot
- 1:19of seniors versus a lot of freshmen for Georgia.
- 1:21And the Vegas goal of the Knights also came through for
- 1:24the team, which was great to see.
- 1:25VGK didn't have to sweat that one too much.
- 1:28They're up I think 4:00 to 1:00 after the first period.
- 1:30So nice hits there. Now the losses, Utah plus 3 1/2.
- 1:34Now they were tied at halftime and they ended up losing by 10
- 1:37in the second-half. But that one I knew we were in a
- 1:40little bit of trouble with because got Utah at an inflated
- 1:42plus 3 1/2. Actually, after the pod later in
- 1:45the day, we saw Utah get up to 4 or even 4 1/2.
- 1:48So late money kept breaking Indiana State.
- 1:51Obviously the Sycamores got that winner there, so we lost our
- 1:54Utah bet and then the Orioles. That was an annoying one because
- 1:57the Orioles obviously are a powerhouse, but really couldn't
- 2:00get anything going with the bats against Kansas City.
- 2:02They lost four to one. Now you notice I said 4, two and
- 2:05one. There was a push there.
- 2:07I was hoping for one more run. We couldn't get it.
- 2:09But hey, I'll take a push versus a loss.
- 2:11Cleveland, Seattle over 7. It ended up being a five to two
- 2:14game. Landed right on 7.
- 2:16But either way guys, I love to see when you struggle.
- 2:19You bounce back the next day, you don't overreact, you don't
- 2:21chase, You don't say screw this betting thing.
- 2:23It's just too hard, too difficult.
- 2:25No, you embrace the challenge. You stick to your blueprint.
- 2:28You play the system matches, and you have a good bounce back day
- 2:304/2 and 1 + 0.93 units. So turn to the page.
- 2:35I always joke about this, but hey sports, betting's a
- 2:37challenge. It's a challenge when you're
- 2:39losing to turn around and have a winning day, which is what we
- 2:41did yesterday. Now that we had a winning day,
- 2:43the challenge is to continue to stack more winning days, as many
- 2:46as we possibly can in a row here.
- 2:48So looking toward today, another loaded slate, guys, a six pack
- 2:51of sweats, that's what I got for you.
- 2:53Again, we're going to be focus on major focusing on Major
- 2:55League Baseball. I have four MLB bets for you, as
- 2:58well as one NHL play and an NBA play.
- 3:02So we're going to hit on it all, see if we can eke out another
- 3:05profitable day here in the betting market.
- 3:07So without further ado, let's dive right into it because we
- 3:10got a lot of baseball day games here, so I want to make sure we
- 3:13get these breakdowns out and you can decide whether you want to
- 3:15play them or not with me, because we have a lot of, again,
- 3:17like 334 o'clock games here. So let's dive right in.
- 3:21First one on the board for me. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
- 3:24Going right back to the well with the Boston Red Sox.
- 3:27Let's go Red Sox. Red Sox on the road at Oakland.
- 3:30This is the final game of a three-game series.
- 3:33Red Sox are going for. The sweep I've played in the
- 3:35last couple nights came through for the team which was great to
- 3:38see and I don't see any reason to lay off them today.
- 3:41First off, pitching match up. Nick Pavetta is on the bump for
- 3:44Boston O and one but a 1.5 OERA. He's going up against Ross
- 3:49Stripling who is O and one with a 7.2 OERA.
- 3:52So Povetta, even though he got the loss pitch very well in his
- 3:54first start, I think he had 10 strikeouts.
- 3:56Obviously Stripling got lit up here his last game.
- 3:59So advantage here you would think with Povetta.
- 4:01But really what is the market telling us?
- 4:02A good sharp steam move in favor of Boston.
- 4:05Now the Red Sox opened around a -, 145 -, 150 Rd. favorite.
- 4:10We've not seen the Red Sox get steamed up all the way to -165,
- 4:14-, 170 again, shop around, have multiple outs, got to see books
- 4:17closer to -180. Again, good sign here that the
- 4:20line continues to go toward Boston.
- 4:22But of course, if you didn't target a little bit earlier
- 4:24today, which I wrote about for vesan.com and tweeted from my my
- 4:28Twitter account at Josh under score Insights, hopefully you're
- 4:30able to get a better number on this one.
- 4:32So I got -165 with Boston. Again, some of these books are
- 4:35closer to -180, but we like about Boston.
- 4:39They are a big popular play. They're getting around 90% of
- 4:41bets and dollars. But really, the line movement is
- 4:44what's most important to me. Even though it's a public play,
- 4:46Sharpster, not saying, hey, it's public, I got to lay off or go
- 4:49the other way. No, they don't care what the
- 4:50public's doing. Remember, when it comes to pros,
- 4:52they're trusting their internal projections and their numbers
- 4:55and maybe when this thing open -145 -, 150, they had Red Sox
- 4:59-170. So they said hey, let's hammer
- 5:01Boston here because that would be basically an actionable edge
- 5:04or an advantage over the sports books Aside from the big line
- 5:07move here Rd. favorites. I was playing around with my
- 5:10database. One thing about baseball is
- 5:12that, you know, I have a lot of systems, but I kind of, you
- 5:15know, tweak my systems or add my systems throughout the year.
- 5:18So you're not going to have all your system at.
- 5:20You're going to have your basic blueprint, but you're not going
- 5:22to have all your systems until the season gets going.
- 5:24We identify edges to you know bet for or against.
- 5:27But I was playing around and I said hey, how are favorites and
- 5:29and and and dogs doing. One in particular I saw was Rd.
- 5:33favorites. So Rd. favorites and Major
- 5:35League Baseball this year are 17 and 577%.
- 5:39So again public loves favorites, but they also want home
- 5:42favorites. So going Rd. favorite is a
- 5:44little bit of a contrarian opportunity just kind of a bet
- 5:47against even though Red Sox are obviously a public play today.
- 5:50Just the thought process of taking a road favorite, there's
- 5:53a little hesitation there on the behalf of the public.
- 5:55So going Rd. favorite obviously has been off to a great start.
- 5:59In addition, the system match has been on the Red Sox last two
- 6:01nights. It's on again for the Boston
- 6:03here today, a non division Rd. favorite off a win.
- 6:07Those those teams this year are 6:00 and 1:00 and they are 520
- 6:11and three 4160% since 2021. I'm going to bank on the Red Sox
- 6:15bats. They've really been hitting the
- 6:17ball great, 244 versus 196 for Oakland.
- 6:21Better team pitching staff as well.
- 6:22For Boston, 1.79 ERA verse 5.79. Red Sox have scored 28 runs this
- 6:28year. Oakland has only scored 15.
- 6:30Red Sox are plus 14 and run differential Oakland's -28.
- 6:34And last but not least, you know we did see some under money come
- 6:37in here. Total open at 8, 1/2, it's down
- 6:39to 8 and I see some books that are 8 now under -120.
- 6:43So the fact that this total is falling is notable because if
- 6:47you're on a favorite, you want a low total.
- 6:49Fewer amount of expected runs scored, more likely that they
- 6:51come from the better teams that would match correlative betting.
- 6:54Favlow total. With Boston.
- 6:56We add it all up here, guys. We got a good sharp steam move
- 6:58toward Boston. Their bats are going.
- 7:00Hopefully povetta over stripling is an advantage.
- 7:02Couple system matches. I'm on the Red Sox.
- 7:05I got them at -165. Again, shop around because
- 7:08again, some books are closer to -180.
- 7:10Keep on cruising. Here's a game that I kind of
- 7:12added a little bit later in the day because they're kind of
- 7:15interesting to me. And then, boom, they got hit
- 7:16with some steam. And I'm like, hey, let's ride,
- 7:18even though I'm a Red Sox fan going with the Yankees.
- 7:21Give me the Yankees here. This is a 3:40 Eastern Time
- 7:24game. Red Sox are 337 Eastern Time, by
- 7:26the way. But this one here, a little bit
- 7:29of background. If you look at Yankees, they won
- 7:32the first game. They obviously lost last night.
- 7:35They got blanked by Arizona. So this is your rubber match
- 7:37here pitching matchup. Carlos Rodon O and O2 point O 8
- 7:41ERA. Remember the Yankees gave him a
- 7:43lot of money. He got hurt, wasn't very good.
- 7:45So maybe he's turning a page. Hopefully because I'm on the
- 7:47Yankees today and going up against Merrill Kelly one and O
- 7:501.35 ERA. What I like about the Yankees
- 7:53that this game was basically a pick em or a slight Yankees
- 7:57favorite like you know minus one O 5 -, 110 to the Yankees and it
- 8:01pretty much sat you know -115 all early morning or late
- 8:05morning, early afternoon now early afternoon boom, Yankees
- 8:09are getting hit. I'm seeing the Yankees now get
- 8:10steamed up to -120. So I always like late breaking
- 8:14movement that takes place couple hours or last hour.
- 8:17Last half hour before a game tips off or first pitch
- 8:20obviously. And I also like that this is
- 8:22about a 5050 bet split. Public doesn't know where to go
- 8:24Yankees off to a good start but Arizona went to the World
- 8:27Series. They split the first two games
- 8:29basically it's down the middle tickets.
- 8:31Yet this late movement is going Yankees.
- 8:33So tells me Yankees are the sharp bet here.
- 8:35They would match that road favorite system I just told you
- 8:3817 and five to the road favorites, 77%.
- 8:41Also an interleague favorite. So basically the lack of
- 8:44familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the better team.
- 8:47That's always a good sign. And if you also look at the team
- 8:50pitching staff, they've both been good.
- 8:52Yankees 2.72 with the Arizona D backs the Snakes in the area of
- 8:56three. So basically Yankees have been
- 8:58pretty good here with their pitching staff.
- 9:00Hopefully that continues here tonight.
- 9:02But again, this was a slight Yankees favorite.
- 9:05And then they just shot up here early afternoon as we get closer
- 9:08to first pitch. So I'm going Yankees here.
- 9:10I'm going to follow this sharp line move.
- 9:11I'm going to go with that road favorite system match.
- 9:13Give me the Yankees. The Yankees shop around.
- 9:16I got the Yankees at -118. Keep on cruising another
- 9:20afternoon game here that caught my eye with a bunch of steam
- 9:23that I'm going to get behind Saint Louis Cardinals in the San
- 9:26Diego pads. This is a 4:10 PM Eastern Time
- 9:29first pitch, and we have a pitching match up here of Zach
- 9:32Thompson going for the Saint Louis Cardinals.
- 9:36Oh, and one 8.44 ERA. He's going up against Joe
- 9:39Musgrove, who's oh, and one with a 9.72 ERA.
- 9:42So both these guys obviously haven't pitched, didn't pitch
- 9:45well in their opener, but again, Musgrove's got the track record,
- 9:47got a lot of money. Thompson more of a journeyman
- 9:50guy, he's had high ERA of like 5 or more on his first few years
- 9:53in the bigs, but I mentioned there was a steam move here.
- 9:56Guess who it's on the fathers. Let's go, dads.
- 10:00Padres open at around -140. They've been bet up now to -160.
- 10:04Some shops even inching up a little bit closer here to, yeah,
- 10:08-155 -. I see a -, 165 out there.
- 10:11So it's notable to me that basically San Diego's getting
- 10:14pounded here because the Padres have dropped the first two games
- 10:17of the series and I think they've lost four of their last
- 10:19six, something like that. So the fact that Saint Louis has
- 10:23won the 1st 2:00, you would think, hey, getting some big
- 10:27plus money here to just get the sweep.
- 10:29San Diego hasn't played well yet.
- 10:30San Diego is the team that's getting steamed.
- 10:32I like this a little bit. I kind of let my bias seep in
- 10:35yesterday because the Tampa Bay Rays were really sharp, like
- 10:38-135 to -150. But I just bet them the night
- 10:41before and they lost and the Rangers were getting a lot of
- 10:43plus money. So I laid off what ended up
- 10:45happening. I should have trusted the
- 10:46market. Tampa Bay won five to two.
- 10:48So I'm going to trust the market on this one, The fact that this
- 10:51line is moving towards San Diego.
- 10:53San Diego would have that interleague favorite system
- 10:55match, which again, lack of familiarity benefiting the quote
- 10:58UN quote better team, not by the record, but by who's got that
- 11:01minus sign, who's favored that day and hopefully the the bats
- 11:05of San Diego wake up today because they're hitting 278 to
- 11:08start the year, their opponent, the Cardinals only hitting 212.
- 11:12San Diego has scored 49 runs, only 25 for Saint Louis.
- 11:15So again, it's fishy. If the pods have dropped the
- 11:18first two games and aren't playing very well, why'd they
- 11:21open at a pretty big favorite? Not pretty big, but you know,
- 11:23-140, that's a modestly big favorite.
- 11:25And why is Line continuing? The steam in their favor tells
- 11:28me we got some smart money here on San Diego, guys, I'm going
- 11:30Padres to win this game, shop around.
- 11:33I got the pods at -155. Then last night of the night, it
- 11:38is a big number, but I'm going to lay it.
- 11:40I'm going with the Cubbies here, guys.
- 11:42Cubs are at home against the Colorado Rockies.
- 11:45Rockies, they may, they may battle Oakland A's, the Oakland
- 11:48A's for the worst team in Major League Baseball here.
- 11:50And I believe they had the lowest win total because the A's
- 11:52win total was, I want to say 57. I guess the Rockies were around
- 11:56there. But anyway, I'm going to back
- 11:59the Cubs. I don't know if this is a love
- 12:00for the Cubs or a fate of Colorado, but maybe it's a
- 12:02little bit of both. But this is another big steam
- 12:04move. So this Cubs, Colorado game,
- 12:07Cubs, they've taken the first two games of this series.
- 12:09They won 12:00 to 2:00 last night as a -, 185 home favorite.
- 12:13So for tonight's series finale, Chicago's going with Luke
- 12:15Little. He's a lefty O&O O point OOERAI
- 12:19don't know if he's an opener. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't.
- 12:22But the Rockies, who are one and five, they're going with Cal
- 12:24Quantrill O and 1 ERA of nine. But I mentioned the big steam
- 12:28move here on the Cubbies. The Cubbies opened around -185.
- 12:32They've been bet up close to -200.
- 12:34So big steam in their favor. That tells me that even though
- 12:37the Cubs are expensive, the pros are still saying, hey, maybe we
- 12:40got this thing closer to -200. It's a worthwhile bet here to
- 12:44back the the Cubs in this spot. Now in addition we have the
- 12:48system match here, big Rd. favorites or sorry big favorites
- 12:52in general if you're a favored by favor of -200 or more, those
- 12:56teams are seven and two. So, so far to start this year
- 12:5878% and you would say, hey you know 7:00 and 2:00, but you're a
- 13:02big favorite. Are you making money?
- 13:03Yes, you are. It's about a 10% ROI.
- 13:04I'm going to bank on Chicago's offense.
- 13:07They are averaging or actually they are hitting.
- 13:11What are they hitting? Let's see, 269 versus only two O
- 13:154 for Colorado. Also, better team ERA 3.63
- 13:19versus 8.8 O 8 point O eight. Really.
- 13:21Colorado's pitching has been terrible, and the total's
- 13:24interesting to me because it opens 6 1/2.
- 13:26It's up to seven, but the wind is like howling in 15 miles an
- 13:30hour. It could be a little bit cold.
- 13:31So it's just weird to me that the total got hit to the, you
- 13:35know, upwards basically 6 1/2 to 7.
- 13:37Yet the wind's blowing in. So you could tell me when
- 13:40blowing in system match, but some of these books are up to 7
- 13:431/2 juiced up under. Either way, I'm not touching it,
- 13:45just found that to be a little interesting.
- 13:47But I'm going to go cubbies here.
- 13:48So shop around the beauty of the OR kind of what you want to do
- 13:51with the Cubs here is find a book that you can get a sub 200
- 13:54price on. Like a lot of these books are
- 13:56-200 -, 2 O 5. But I see a -, 190.
- 13:59I see a -, 194, I see a -, 198. Why is that important?
- 14:04Because you want to get it a little more than 1/2 unit back.
- 14:07If you're laying at 200, the Cubs win.
- 14:09You're getting a half unit back bet Tris first bet to win.
- 14:12But if you're again, it may not seem like a big deal.
- 14:14But if you're laying a -, 192, you're getting a little more
- 14:16than 1/2 unit back. So that means if you go, you
- 14:19know a win here and you win another game you can still make
- 14:22some money versus going you know two and one and and losing money
- 14:25basically or not making much of AA difference here.
- 14:28So either way I'm going Cubs guys.
- 14:30I would mention this too. I'm actually kind of happy I I
- 14:32wrote about the New York Mets today, their sharpest attack dog
- 14:35to fave line move. But that game got rained out.
- 14:37So I'm like, OK, fine by me. I didn't really want to lose
- 14:40another Mets bet because they just absolutely stink.
- 14:43But either way, guys for money line bets, can we find a way to
- 14:46get three of these? That's the goal.
- 14:47Red Sox, Yankees, Padres and Cubs keep on cruising, got a bet
- 14:52for you in the NHL. So see if we can get a little
- 14:56bit of hot streak going here after VGK came through for us.
- 14:58And I'm going to do kind of the same thing here tonight.
- 15:00I'm going to target a really good team at home, laying a
- 15:03relatively short number. So I'm talking about Edmonton
- 15:06Oilers against the Dallas Stars. I'm going to go Dallas Stars
- 15:09here. Guys saw a little bit of line
- 15:10movement toward Dallas. Now Dallas opened around -115 -,
- 15:15120. They're pretty much -120 -, 125
- 15:18now. So not a huge steam move, not
- 15:20talking about a, you know, 20 cent steam.
- 15:22But lines moved a little bit toward Dallas.
- 15:25They did actually touch as high as -130 at some shops earlier
- 15:28today. So it's all been one sided
- 15:29movement in favor of Dallas. Now Dallas is a pretty good bet
- 15:32split. They're only getting around 60%
- 15:34of bets but nearly 70% of the money.
- 15:37So good low bets, higher dollars, bet split.
- 15:39Again, hockey. I don't put as much into
- 15:40percentages because you know basically it's a system match
- 15:44sport and majority of the betters who are grinders betting
- 15:47hockey, they know hockey. This is not a a public sport
- 15:50basically and you get a little bit of public when you get to
- 15:52the Stanley Cup playoffs but not really.
- 15:54So I don't basically my point is I don't mind being on the 60%
- 15:57side when it comes to NHL. I do not want to be on the 60%
- 16:01side when it comes to NFL obviously because that's the
- 16:03more public sport you want to bet against.
- 16:05But anyway, little movement toward Dallas.
- 16:07But here's where I think we can find an edge with Dallas
- 16:09tonight. A good rest, first tired system
- 16:11match. The Dallas Stars last played on
- 16:13March 30th, that was Saturday. You had the Edmonton Oilers play
- 16:18on Monday the 1st. So basically that is a what is
- 16:21that 2 day rest advantage in favor of the Dallas Stars.
- 16:25Hopefully you're rested, ready to go.
- 16:26Also, I'm going to put some stock into the goaltending here
- 16:29now. Picard or Picard.
- 16:31I don't even know how you pronounce his name.
- 16:32He used to play for the the the Avalanche.
- 16:35He's got a 2.24 goals against 9/15 save percentage.
- 16:38He's got pretty good numbers here, but home Rd. you see a
- 16:41difference at home 1.85 goals against on the road 2.52 he's on
- 16:46the road here tonight. And Jake Ottinger, whose numbers
- 16:49haven't been great all year long, 2.87 goals against 900
- 16:53save percentage. Knock on wood.
- 16:55Fingers crossed that he's kind of figuring something out right
- 16:57now because he's eight and two in the month of March and he's
- 17:01given up two goals or less in four straight games.
- 17:04So rested with extra rest and the rest advantage, ready to go.
- 17:07Playing great as of late. And did I mention I didn't?
- 17:10But here I'm going to say it now.
- 17:11The Dallas Stars are red hot. Dare I say that they are a
- 17:14burning star? What do you think about that?
- 17:18But Dallas Stars, they've won seven straight games.
- 17:20So on the one hand, it's like how do you not take McDavid, you
- 17:23know, getting a little bit of plus money.
- 17:25We flip it the other way and say Dallas is one of the best teams
- 17:27in the NHL. You're only getting a -, 120 at
- 17:29home. That's a pretty good price.
- 17:31Reminds me a little bit of VGK at that short number last night.
- 17:33So I'm going to go with the Dallas Stars here, guys.
- 17:36And I didn't mention this, but I have a system match on the
- 17:39Dallas Stars. If you are a rested favorite,
- 17:42off a win. So your favorite, which Dallas
- 17:44is around -120 -, 125, you are rested.
- 17:49You have at least three days between your last game and this
- 17:51one and you're coming off a win, which Dallas is.
- 17:53They've won seven straight. Those teams are 130 and 7464%
- 17:57this year with a nearly 4% ROI. So that would be a match there
- 18:01on Dallas as well. So I'm going stars, baby.
- 18:04Shop around. I got the stars at -122 then
- 18:07last by the night for you. Let's go to the NBA.
- 18:10I'm staying up late and Jesus, can we cash an over here in the
- 18:13NBA because I saw some sharp money on this over.
- 18:16We have a good good advantage here with a system play.
- 18:20Hopefully we can catch this one. I'm talking about last game of
- 18:23the night 10:00 Cleveland Cavs and the Phoenix Suns.
- 18:26Now first thing you got to know about this one.
- 18:28This total ticked up a bit. Total open around two 25225 1/2.
- 18:33Now it's 226 1/2. So we've seen a lot of these
- 18:36books. You know, with the totals
- 18:37falling today, this is one of the only books or sorry, one of
- 18:40the only games where the total has risen.
- 18:42But immediately once this line opened, you saw some money hit
- 18:45the over. I really love this bet.
- 18:47Split to the over 61% bets, 81% of the money is going over here.
- 18:53Now you also have a non conference favorite or sorry a
- 18:55non conference over system match.
- 18:57SO22 teams. Two different conferences don't
- 19:00really know each other, don't match up very well or very often
- 19:03so really don't know how to defend.
- 19:05When you play a team you don't know very well.
- 19:06So hopefully that's a benefit to the offense.
- 19:09We have 3 refs who are pretty much all over referees.
- 19:12Nothing crazy but between 51 and 53% historically to the over.
- 19:17But really what I like is injury wise Donovan Mitchell's coming
- 19:20back. So Donovan Mitchell who's been
- 19:23banged up here a little bit, the this is a back-to-back for
- 19:25Cleveland but Mitchell didn't play last night so he is
- 19:27expected to play here tonight to get some good offense coming
- 19:30back into your line up. Also relatively short spread.
- 19:33You know this is -5, 1/2, -, 6 for the Phoenix Suns.
- 19:37So hopefully it's a competitive back and forth game.
- 19:39Maybe get overtime, maybe get, you know some some scoring,
- 19:43fouling and shooting late. Now offensive efficiency Phoenix
- 19:47is #8, Cleveland is #16, but really going to bank on the
- 19:51offense of Phoenix playing well, especially Cleveland.
- 19:53You know they're 16th. You're getting Mitchell back,
- 19:55your best offensive player, and if you look at Phoenix over
- 19:58their last ten games, they're arguing 116 points, giving up
- 20:01113. So they've been scoring a lot.
- 20:04They've also been giving up a lot and the Cleveland Cavs since
- 20:07the since March 1st. So going up a little or
- 20:11basically a little more than a month now at this point, they're
- 20:13one of the best over teams in the NBA, 11:00 and 7:00 to the
- 20:16over. So this is going to be ATNT
- 20:19game. It is a obviously prime time
- 20:20game here tonight and we have Mitchell coming back.
- 20:23We have the total on the rise. We have a great low bets, higher
- 20:26dollar bet split with a couple system matches here I'm going to
- 20:29go with the over Cleveland, Phoenix over 226 1/2.
- 20:36That about does it for today's episode #15 of the All Systems
- 20:40Go Sports betting podcast. But reminder, if you are new to
- 20:44the pod, don't worry, you're probably new like everyone else.
- 20:47But I can't believe I feel like it just started.
- 20:49I feel like I spent weeks, you know, planning this pod and
- 20:52dropping it in. Episode one feels like it was
- 20:54yesterday. I can't believe we're already up
- 20:56to 15, but I love being able to grind in the arena with you guys
- 20:59each day and I'm so honored and proud to get this pod off the
- 21:02ground. But I need your help to promote
- 21:05the pod to spread the word. Recommend it to a friend.
- 21:08Tell it to your sports betting buddy who maybe wants to learn
- 21:11more about betting but really has no idea how to track line
- 21:14movement or become a data-driven better.
- 21:16Easiest thing you can do is to give the All Systems Go Pod a
- 21:21five star review on Spotify, give it five stars or iTunes of
- 21:24course. And then also I would love for
- 21:26you guys to follow the All Systems Go Twitter page.
- 21:30It's at under score ASG under score podcast and that's where I
- 21:34will always tweet the pod. And you can also find, you know,
- 21:38all the the basically each podcast each day will be found
- 21:41there as well aside from all the different platforms.
- 21:45But also if you enjoy this kind of, you know, way to promote or
- 21:49way to approach sports betting. I should say maybe you love
- 21:52betting on sports but didn't find a lot of success and you
- 21:55bet with your gut instinct and bias.
- 21:57Maybe you feel like, hey, becoming a pro better, that'll
- 21:59be nice but maybe it's not really in the cards.
- 22:02So what do you want to do to become a sharper better?
- 22:03You want to learn how to read the market like the Wall Street
- 22:06traders approach the stock market.
- 22:08So if you enjoy this kind of approach to betting these
- 22:11breakdowns, if you've learned a thing or two about reading line
- 22:14movement, going contrarian identifying sharp action system
- 22:17matches, flat betting bankroll management, you notice, I never
- 22:20say parlay cause parlays are a hand out to the book.
- 22:23You're just yanking that penny slot you know kind of lever
- 22:27they're making the book $1,000,000 and making you broke.
- 22:30So that's why we don't bet parlays cause the hold
- 22:33percentage is like 30%. Don't even get me started on
- 22:36same game parlays that's you know hold percentage on
- 22:38steroids. But anyway, if you want to learn
- 22:40more about data-driven betting, if you want to support the pod,
- 22:42if you want to let me know that you appreciate the hard work
- 22:44that I put in grinding in the arena each day, then I have a
- 22:48request of you Make my day. Go to Amazon.com, type in the
- 22:51Everything Guide to Sports betting.
- 22:53That's my baby. That's my book.
- 22:55It's got the blueprint here. Everything I've learned in the
- 22:57industry. How to go contrarian.
- 22:59How to read line movement. How to locate sharp action.
- 23:01How to place a bet in person or online.
- 23:03How to shop for the best line. How to set up a bankroll
- 23:05management plan. All included in the Everything
- 23:07Guide to Sports Betting. So if you want to pick up a copy
- 23:10and support the team, get it for your uncle or your nephew or
- 23:13whoever, or maybe someone who's in any who is in a newly
- 23:16legalized state, it would really, really mean a lot to me.
- 23:19And I think you're going to get a lot out of it.
- 23:20Not just a way to make me happy, but hopefully make you happy by
- 23:23learning more and becoming a sharper better.
- 23:26And then of course, I always want to mention this and leave
- 23:29you with one final thought here. Have you heard about rhythm?
- 23:33You probably have if you listen to this pod because Rhythm
- 23:35powers this podcast and Rhythm is the ultimate AI sports
- 23:39betting app for data, back pics and props.
- 23:41If you haven't done it yet, I want you to go download the
- 23:43Rhythm app so you can start making smarter bets today and
- 23:46take advantage of the ultimate AI sports betting platform for
- 23:50all pics and props. But there's a specific way I
- 23:52need you to sign up. All you have to do is go to my
- 23:55Twitter page at Josh under score Insights where the all systems
- 23:59go Twitter page at under score ASG under score Podcast and
- 24:03you're going to go to the very top of those Twitter pages.
- 24:05There's going to be a pinned tweet and it's going to have a
- 24:09link there that talks about rhythm.
- 24:10And you're going to click that link, it's a custom link.
- 24:13And then you're going to sign up and get a free account and start
- 24:15using rhythm to your advantage. Because I need, I need them to
- 24:17know that I referred you. It's very important here because
- 24:19I want rhythm to know that I'm doing my part to spread the word
- 24:23about the best AI sports betting platform around.
- 24:27But give it a shot. Especially, of course, here with
- 24:30NBA, with college basketball. I'm really excited.
- 24:32There's actually golf that my buddy James Santora works for
- 24:35rhythm. They're working on.
- 24:37If you are into golf, there was a tweet that I retweeted
- 24:39yesterday where they're looking for people to promote golf
- 24:42content. So if you're interested, give
- 24:45that a shot. But I'm really looking forward
- 24:46to in the fall. It seems like it's far ways
- 24:48away. But NFL player props, rhythm,
- 24:51that's really where I learned about them and they did a great
- 24:53job. But either way, sign up for
- 24:54rhythm. Start making smarter bets today.
- 24:57That about does it for episode 15 of the All Systems Go Sports
- 25:00betting podcast. Reminder whether I see you at
- 25:03the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
- 25:05Brooklyn, New Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun.
- 25:08Down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston next to me.
- 25:11Or Plain Ridge Park Casino. Or MGM Springfield.
- 25:13Or out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
- 25:16Where Billy Walters sends his number runners at the South
- 25:18Point where the lowest Chewest possible is found.
- 25:20Or, of course, at the at the Disney World of for Sports
- 25:24bettors, which is Circa, which is the greatest sports book in
- 25:27the world. Jumping in the pool at stadium
- 25:28Swim. Getting a victory burger,
- 25:30wherever it may be. You're going to walk up to me
- 25:32and you're going to show me a Red Sox ticket from yesterday.
- 25:35A Seton Hall ticket. A Brewers ticket, AVGKVGK
- 25:38ticket. Guess what?
- 25:40First one's on me, Next one's on you.
- 25:41We're going to post about the book.
- 25:43Sweat sharp, contrarian plays all night long.
- 25:45So wish you the best luck. Everyone, enjoy your Wednesday.
- 25:48Let's see if we can catch some tickets here.
- 25:50My parting words. As always, stay sharp, stay
- 25:52contrarian, Bet against the public, Place yourself on the
- 25:55side of the house. Always be with the smart money,
- 25:57never against it. Will smart money win every time?
- 26:00Of course not. But here's the thing.
- 26:01It's going to win a majority of the time long term.
- 26:04So if we stay disciplined and consistent with our bankroll and
- 26:07our system matches, we bypass the games.
- 26:09Don't touch the games that have red flags and maybe things we
- 26:12don't like about them, but be have.
- 26:14Be freeless and disciplined enough to get down on the games
- 26:16that do, who are simultaneously against the public with the
- 26:19house, with the pros flat bet. Avoid parlays and get some
- 26:23closing line value. If we can do that, we're going
- 26:25to be successful sports bettors, so have a great Wednesday,
- 26:28everyone. Be back at it tomorrow for a big
- 26:30thirsty Thursday and I will see you then for episode 16 of the
- 26:33All Systems Go Sports Betting Podcast.
- 26:36Good luck everyone.