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The Favorites - NFL Week 6 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I'm Chadmilman of the Action Network. Today is our Tuesday,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Week six episode where we break down the entire slate
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: of NFL games. We will discuss our exact decision and
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: our Simon says and start to narrow down the options
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: for our final paves to put into the Favorites podcast
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them Contest. Speaking
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: of the contest, quick reminder. Today our contest team drops
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: your lowest weekly score of the season. By tomorrow morning,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: everyone will see their new total score. Then it's a
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: race to the finish and the forty thousand dollars First
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Play prize. We went one in four this week. Unfortunately
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: it's our second, so we can't drop both of them.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: We suffered from some brutal, brutal bad beats, which prompted
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: some reflection by me. I just want to bring some sanity,
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: some reason, some logic to the crazy roller coaster that
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: is betting on the NFL. I'm going to explain more
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: of that and provide some evidence in a minute, but
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: first live from our Tommy John Home Studios. I'm joined
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre,
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: my BFF professional better signon Hunter, Hello, Simon, Hello Chat.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: I'm ready to get into this week. Brother about to
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: be one third way through the regular season, so yeah,
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: goes too fast, it does, and it's also things are
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: starting to sudden a little bit. This week. We have
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: ten home dogs, so the books are taking in a
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: lot of positions this week. So yeah, I'm excited to
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: break it down.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: The fact we're already getting into the middle of October,
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: the IDEs of October is so unsettling to me. I
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: flipped over to week six when I was checking the ads.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: I'm like, are you kidding me? I feel like we
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: just started this thing. In a moment, we'll recap the
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: results of week five in our contest and announce the
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: winner of our big weekly cash prize, the Favorites Podcast
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest. You
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: can still win the weekly cash prizes, you just have
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: to enter visit Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. As a reminder,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: The Favorites Podcast is presented by Bet three six five
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: and now new BET three six five, customers get two
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: hundred dollars in bonus bets. When you bet five dollars,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars. Bet
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: for five dollars to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. If bet
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: three sixty five must be twenty one or older and
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: Iowa terms conditions restrictions applied. Congratulations to Week five first
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: place winner Jose Valaderes. Jose went five to zero in
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: the contest, nailed the Monday night football tiebreaker exactly. Jose's
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: taken home two thousand dollars twice the typical weekly prize,
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: and as always, our producer Matt Mitchell has selected his
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Producer's Cup Award to the entry that finished dead fuck
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: last in the contest.
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: Have you heard about the Loads loser. He's a lois
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: about he still keeps on try.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: This week, the Producer's Cup goes to Matt Yabuki, who
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: went on five missed the tiebreaker by a mere two
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: hundred and eighty three yards. Matt Yubuki, please email our
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: producer at podcasts at actionnetwork dot com to claim your prize.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: All Right, I mentioned above, Simon, Don't you don't even
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: know I did this? We suffered some bad beats this
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: past week, right since he had double digit leads three
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: different times in the second half, missed a game winning
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: kick in ot we lost. The Rams dominated the Packers,
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: missed an extra point that obviously had huge impact. We lost.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: The Steelers lost to the Cowboys on a last second
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: touchdown path by Dak We lost as well. Like that,
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: those are excruciating. You can admit that as a professional,
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: admit that.
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say the worst part for me personally
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: is that Rams lost, my biggest loss since that Eagle
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: Super Bowl, So that one hurt for the show. But
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: also I've just been eating hot dogs and rice the
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: last two days. Chad, I'm just just gonna have to
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: suffer for next couple of weeks because it's just it's
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: hurting over here. But yeah, the Pittsburgh game was brutal
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: because you just nailed it in a game in which
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: the defense got us three turnovers and I blocked the
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: field goal. It came down to a fourth down and
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: on a little pick play to the third receiver, it
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: worked out for Dallas. So it's just, you know, one
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: of my strengths I believe in life is I am lucky.
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: Damn well, we're unlucky this past week. Just things did
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: not bounce our way.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Well, look, I felt terrible for you on Sunday night
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: when it's seven twenty and we're watching the end of
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: that Rams game and the Rams can't close the deal.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: And I know that the Rams ended up being your
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: biggest play, not just of the weekend, but just generally,
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: like your face on the zoom when that fourth down
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: pass fell incomplete and then you were like, yeah, now
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: we got to do a podcast. I was like.
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And the worst part too, that day I started drinking.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: As soon as we get done the show. It's like,
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: all right, we gotta booze. This is one of those
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: days you gotta drink. And if I always stay up
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: till one in the morning just to watch us lose
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: that Pittsburgh game. It was just like I've been watching
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: football since nine in the morning. Now it's one in
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: the morning, and I just can't damn get a wind
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: in the night.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: Well, listen, I did not stay up for that, and
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: I didn't stay up for it. I didn't stay up
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: for the Saint Chiefs last night. I did decide to review, though,
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: through five weeks, how often we had been bitten by
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: bad beats and benefited from lucky breaks the tally including
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: the three games this past week, three lucky breaks, four
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: bad beats. So I'm not going to go into each game,
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: but i will tell you that I do think it
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: generally evens out, and we will feel the bad beats
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: worse than we will feel the lucky breaks, and it
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: will feel like those are two x what the lucky
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: breaks are. And I say this because I think everyone
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: feels this right, Everyone watching games feels so much more
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: when they lose a bad beat than when they get
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: the lucky break.
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: Well, it's not a rhythm. Also, it's like we've had
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: four straight weeks the game our last game out has covered.
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: We just can't get it right, Even this week I
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: gave you a fifty to fifty option and it's like,
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: we can't even get lucky. I'm picking the right option
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: of which game to take out. So now it is
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: it's just brutal. Where you're right, it's going to break
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: the other way. I get the fans. Even last year,
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: fansaid we had a down year. Listen, me and Chad
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: pick five sides every week, so that's ninety games total.
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: And even last year we had a downyear. To me
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: and you as well, we thought we could have done better.
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: We won't fifty and forty. So it's like this year
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: is brutal. We got a hole we gotta dig ourselves
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: out of. But like we just said, we're about to
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: be one third way through this season. No need to
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: panic yet, It's a long way to go. We usually
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: always write the ship, but man, these beats they've been
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: really tough to swallow.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: It will even out, it always does. And most importantly,
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: like right now, all I care about for you and
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: for my social media happiness is the Phillies advancing in
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: the playoffs because those red October tiktoks are freaking amazing.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: Go Phils. Let's get let's get rolland San Francisco bat Seattle.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Seattle's a three point dog on the road to Thursday
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: night game, like, which is our overriding trend here? Are
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: we going with like the home dog in the division?
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Are we going with the Thursday night football favorite? I
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: will say like, these are two teams, the only two
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: teams that lost outright when they were the seven point
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: or better favorite on Sunday. The questions I have from
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Sunday night are still irrelevant. Are we worried about the
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Niners who have looked great but are also two and
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: three and in third place in their division? Because the
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Cardinals are two and three and they beat the Niners.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: So it's strange because the Niners are still like a
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: top rated football team right according to PFF. They're number
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: one in offense, number one passing offense, number three, receiving,
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: number two run blocking, top six in defense. Like, the
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Seattle team is good in a lot of respects and
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: rated highly, but they're not as good top to bottom
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: as the Niners. The Niners, I feel like, have had
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: really bad luck, especially the past your games.
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but this is why we love betting football. We
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: talk all the time about this doesn't matter. If you're
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: the best team. You need a lot of things to
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: bounce your way, and it's all about how you compete
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: at the very end of the games. It's like, you know,
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: that's why if you're a Cowboys fan, I'd be on
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: top of the world. They were dead to right, and
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: Dak had an incredible drive against number one defense to
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: win that game. Tam can be said about the forty
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: nine ers, right they blew a game against the Rams,
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: and you know what you want to say, against an
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: Arizona team, they definitely blew that game. It's like they
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: had a big lead and they kind of fell apart.
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: So right now, this team, I feel like they're better
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: than the Seahawks. The Seahawks, you know, as well as
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: you know has played overall their defense, it looked like,
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: you know, we gave a little bit too much credit
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: for them early on because they were beating up on
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: bad teams, right like, once they started playing good offenses
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: in Detroit, and I mean, I don't know if I'm
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: saying the Giants are that good of an offense, but
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: they're pretty good.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: So it's like we've all is scheming right now. Yeah,
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: Like he gets credit.
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: For that, and don't we feel the same way about
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: Kyle Shanahan. Like you just read all those numbers. So
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: it's like I wanted to be on the Seahawks because
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: Chad has talked about the line was three moved up
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: to three and a half. It's like, Okay, there's a
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: little bit of value there in the Seahawks. But then
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: when you really dive into it, is there is there
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: really value here or just have the forty nine ers
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: been unlucky in the end of games and they've kind
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: of fallen apart at the end of these games for
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: different reasons, right, and the end of the day, the
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: biggest reason to me is McCaffrey. This guy average a
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: touchdown a game last year, Like you take the best
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: running back out of that offense. Yes, the guy who's
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: come in, the undrafted free agent Mason's played well, but
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: there's a difference there. Is that closing these games out,
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: you can see a noticeable difference in McCaffrey getting ten
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: touches on the final carry like of the game to Mason. Right,
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: even that Fumbly had against Arizona kind of flipped that game.
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: So that's I'm trying to figure out why, Like, you're right,
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: why has this not been the same for this forty
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: Niners team even though they've been so dominant offensively. It
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: has to be the McCaffrey factor. There's no other There's
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: no other answer to it. It's like that's the biggest
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: difference from last year to this year on offense, the
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: closeout games. They do not have the best running back
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: on football. So in this matchup, I just once again,
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: I think the value is on them. I have this
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: lineup four, so it's not that much value. But as
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: of right now, I'm on the forty nine Ers with
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: the general public. But I mean, you talk all the
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: time chat. I usually like taking the favorites on these
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: Thursday night games, but it's tough because this number is
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: just it's like, man, that's a lot of points to
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: be given up to a forty nine Ers team that
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: keeps getting back door in a lot of these games.
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: So yeah, definitely a number I'm torn on, but I
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: end up betting on this forty nine Ers.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Here the h the Christian McCaffrey factor is interesting because
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: the Niners are winning at the end of these games.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: And I actually didn't think about it until you just
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: framed it the way you did. His ability to be
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: a dependable, consistent time swallower and gain positive yardage and
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: get them closer to the end zone, or by the way,
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: break one open to put a cap on the cover
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: and the win. Those have been the differences. Right the
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: end of the game against the Cardinals, they couldn't close
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: it out because of a fumble. The end of the
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: game against the Rams, they couldn't close it out because
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: they couldn't convert. You know, they've had flukish things, freakish things,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: not having Jake Moody that clearly impacted their ability to
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: score in the red zone and make decisions in the
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: red zone about what they were going to do. The
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Cardinals knew what they were going to do that impacted it.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: It's still to me one of the better teams in
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: the NFC, even if.
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: Right now, when this division is still right.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, like now's a good time to bet them, So
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: I agree, Like I want to bet the Niners at
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: three and a half. You know, to me, it was
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: time to fade the Seahawks when they were three to
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: zero and everyone was calling Mike McDonald a genius for
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: a team that hadn't beat anybody yet, which we talked
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: about on the show. So next game up, it's a
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: London game, Jacksonville Jaguars and the Chicago Bears. Chicago Bears
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: with the number one defense according to EPA, number one,
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: one of the best pass rushing defenses in the NFL,
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: one of the best pass coverage defenses in the NFL.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: A quarterback who has already thrown for two hundred yards
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: three hundred yards twice in his career as a Chicago Bear,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: which is more than Justin Fields did in his career
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: Kyle Orton did, Rex Grossman did. The team's got a
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: plus five hundred record, They're plus five hundred against the spread.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: The line has moved aggressively in their direction. Talk to me,
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: talk me off the ledge. Tell me why I shouldn't
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: be uphorik, Tell me why in a forty five minute
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: phone call with my buddy Matt, twenty five wasn't spent
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: on Caleb Williams and his ability to read defenses. I
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: swear to god, that's what two grown men in their
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: fifties talked about for an extended period of time. Explain
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: to me why I shouldn't be over the moon.
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: And it's also just hilarious list of names, and you're
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: going back there. Rex Grossman, Kyle Wharton, I mean, what
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: wild times of the mid two thousands where the Bears.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's all we have to hold on to
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: for a run. Kyle Whorton looked like he was going
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: to be the second coming of Tom Brady.
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: No, poor Forte man. I mean, he just never have
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: a quarterback his whole career in Chicago. Yeah, I mean,
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, me and you talk. I don't want to
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: beat it down too much. People know I am obsessed.
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: I love Williams, and you know the Week one I
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: was scared because I was just like, you know, I
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: didn't think his personality his whole career, he didn't get nervous.
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: He was always able to show up in these big
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: moments and make big time throws. And even in a
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: week two he looked a little lost, and I could
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: see it from you, a little bit of panic of like, man,
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: what is going on here? Dude? Are we messing this
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: kid up already? Because we don't have the coaching, but
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: we've seen this talent kind of shine through. Now once
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: we're through five weeks, and it's just you should be
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: over the Moon. I mean, it's very exciting, but how
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: is this not the spot to fade this team and
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: take this Jaguars team, Like this is the spot. But
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: I'll wait let the public key come in. Maybe I'll
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: get a three on this Jaguars team that they suck
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: for our last ten years of our life in this NFL.
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: They suck the Jaguars, you know where they don't suck
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: London Like I don't know why. It's their home away
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: from home. They just have always known how to travel
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: to London and play well. It doesn't matter whe their
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: coaches who if it was Blake Bortles, if it's Trevor Lawrence, like,
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: they've usually performed well. So I'm interested to get some
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: stats off Evan about these trends with this Jaguars team here.
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: But I already wanted to fay Chicago just because they're
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: a young team and this is peak, Like they are
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: so hyped up right now. They've just had a bunch
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: of really impressive wins back to back. You know, they
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: dominated the Rams in the second half that Carolina game,
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: they dominated from the get go right. That was their
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: most complete game of the season. So if you're a
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: Bears fan, you want to bet them, I'd grab it now.
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: Why not grab the two and a half. It's a
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: key number. I only think it goes up from here.
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: We talk at the time favorite international games. After the
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: Vikings win last week, they're thirty five and ten straight up,
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: so historically the favorite. This is the spot you want
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: to take them on these international games. But man, this
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: is this is pretty wild. How much you know just
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: your whole division, every one of your guys' divisions is
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: so good around it's crazy to think that you guys
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: are sitting here at three and two. You couldn't have
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: asked for a better start to this Bear season, right,
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: Like the way Williams is playing, the way the defense
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: is playing. You know, a couple of rough patches here
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: and there, but that's the NFL season. So yeah, to
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: be say, when you had three and two with rookie QB,
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: I know you gotta be feeling pretty good.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: So look a couple of weeks ago against the Rams,
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: they came back and won, and I was really frustrated
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: because Caleb Williams was standing in the pocket almost like
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: a statue, like he wasn't moving his feet, he wasn't
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: ready to maneuver anything like that. And again in my
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: weekly debriefings on this team with Matt, I was explaining
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: my frustration with this, and he said, I actually saw
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: that a different way. I saw that as he was
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: reading the defenses and going through his progressions and was
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: processing it all. And this week you saw a lot
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: of that process sped up in a much better way. Again,
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: the Panthers are a terrible team and a bad defense
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: and not a very good secondary. So you got to
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: make the throws, and they were spectacular throws. Also, all
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: fans can appreciate this. Ten minutes of that conversation today
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: was Matt apologizing and falling on his sword for saying
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: the Bears made a terrible mistake and drafting Caleb william
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: and they shouldn't get Justin Fields. So you know, there
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: hasn't been any panic in Chicago. We haven't been writing
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: the roller coaster in any way whatsoever. But we sure
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: are glad we have Cayler Williams right now.
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to embarrassing as that they're amit there,
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: but they're just different tiers. Like on Justin Justin Fields,
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: his his ceiling was never going to be anywhere close
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: to what Caleb Williams ceiling is, which is, well, you
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: guys are hoping he can turn into a form of
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes. That movement in the pocket. It's just Field's
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: never had the fields had the one or two read
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: pull it down on it, which is really special. But
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: Caleb is able to pull it down create plays on
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: his own, which is in this NFL. You know, that's
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: just everything the top the best quarterbacks like Josh Allen,
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: Joe Burrow, Mahomes, that's lamar, that's what they do.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: So listen, we can't even put that game in the contest.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: I want to spend too much time on it. Yeah,
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: you have said what you're going to do, what you're
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: hoping to do. I'm probably going to pass on this game.
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: I can't stand the emotion. Washington and Baltimore. Washington is
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: a six and a half point dog. You flag this
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: on Sunday night. You wanted to bet Washington. So here's
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: the scary part. Like the Commander's O line was supposed
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: to be terrible, but they're top five in pass blocking
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: right now. Meanwhile, the Ravens are bottom third in coverage,
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: which is why we've seen Burrow light them up and
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: why until last night Patrick Mahomes was like they were
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: the only defense he could score against. So the logic
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: to me is like, will this be a shootout? And
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: because of that, does that mean there is a greater
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: chance Washington has to keep this game close? Are you
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: still leading Washington six and a half?
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: I am, But the professionals think that Washington gets absolutely
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: rolled here by this Ravens team. They like the matchup
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: for the Ravens, they like the veteranship of the Ravens
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: versus young Washington team. But I keep pushing back against them.
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: You guys have said that for the last two straight weeks.
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: You said that against Arizona, and you said it again
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: against Cleveland. And I know some sharp groups that were
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: heavy on Cleveland. I mean they really moved that number.
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: It was three and a half. A lot of books
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: are back down to three before kick. Like that's some
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: really heavy sharp money moving that number down because so
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: much public money was on Washington. I told you this
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: to me was the most public play of the week
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: for me, Like I knew this was gonna be a
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: really heavy public dog. And it feels like Arizona last week,
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: Like I'm trying to have to get bullied off this
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: one because I do see their reasoning that, yes, no
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: one's denying Baltimore is, you know what number two team
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: right now in the AFC. I mean you could even
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: if you wanted to put them above case, but I wouldn't.
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: But it's just they've played that well against a really
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: tough schedule, and they probably should you know, a couple
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: things bounced their way. They probably should be the top
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: of the AFC right now that they should have probably
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: beat the Chiefs and a bunch of other stuff. So yeah,
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: I get the love for the Ravens, but it's just like,
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: isn't this a good matchup for Jane Daniels. You just
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: said it. The Ravens can be passed on. This kid
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: has a great arm and he's comfortable right now. So
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: you're right, there's something I need to dive into more.
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: But I have bet this at plus six and a half.
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: You know, I don't know what I'm missing right now
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: with this one with Washington, where it's like, I don't
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: I think the books that I have are wrong on
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: this one. And you know there's plenty of professionals out
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: there to think, no, they have this right. The hype
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: is too high on Washington team. This is a good
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: spot to sell high on them, and I think they're
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: just banking on Eventually Jane Daniels is going to have
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: a bad game. Everyone has bad games. I mean it's
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: the NFL. Eventually it happens. And like this is the
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: classic case of whatever save against the Arizonaly bet ten thousand.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: The next week they bet twenty, the next week they
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: bet thirty, and it's like, you guys are just gonna
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: keep chasing this kid on Washington. So yeah, maybe I'll
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: flip by come Thursday if I get more info. But
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: as we sit here right now, nothing changed from Sunday.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: Still still like Washington, still like the matcher for Jane Daniels,
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: And I think Washington defense has been playing better. And
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: then we give them credit for right. They were really
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: bad to start the year. They've improved every week. You've
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: seen them get confidence. I kind of get an identity here,
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: so's it's been really impressive. But Washington's done these last
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: four or five weeks.
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it is interesting. You know, when I was doing
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: the research yesterday, I really wanted to find the thin
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: sliced data point that shows me Washington is doing what
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: I thought they were doing defensively, because I agree, like
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: you watch their games and it's not just the offense.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: It's the defense that is keeping points down, that is
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: stopping people. But their sort of advanced metrics are all
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: still terrible. Like they're not great in coverage, they're not
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: great as a pass rush, they're not great tackling. Their
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: overall ranking isn't very good.
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: It's an interesting they shouldn't be named two defensive players.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: But that's what I mean, Like, I'm not disagree with you.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: I wanted to find like why do my eyes tell
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: me Washington's defense is better than what the numbers are saying,
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: because it is. Is it just they're playing good in
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: the right spots, like scheme wise, the right play calls.
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: Dan Quinn and his defensive staff are thoughtful about what
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: they need to do in the exact moment they need
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: to do it, and the rest of the time teams
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: are sort of having the ability.
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: We're trying to play catch up, right, that's the biggest thing.
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: They're being forced to pass. They're chasing this offense, and
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: that's been the success for Washington. They know they can
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: pin their ears back because teams are having to throw
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: the ball. We said, in the way the NFL is now,
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: if you can't run the ball, you're doomed. Like you
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: need to be able to control the clock that way.
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: That if teams know you're just gonna be passing, pass
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: and pass, and they can attack you. So I'm with
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: you on that, like I don't. The Washington defense has
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: been even more surprising than their offense to this point.
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: I can't believe how well they've played these last three weeks.
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: This is an interesting game this week. It is a
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: classic spot. Are you going to sell high? And do
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: you keep trying to sell high? We do the same
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: thing on the other side. This team has to be undervalued.
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: It has to be undervalued the Commanders right now, we're
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: saying they have to be overvalued. Houston and New England
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: we talked about this Sunday night. We said we were
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: going to bet it Sunday night. We did bet it
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: Sunday night. It was at I think was it at
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: seven or seven and a half? Yeah, it was at
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, right, we got that seven, but no,
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: it was seven. It was seven. But we did the
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: same thing last week with the Cardinals. We were full
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: of Bravado. We said we were going to bet the Cardinals.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: It's what we do, simon. As of Sunday, NFL underdogs
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: six plus points are now eleven and eight straight up
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: sixteen to two and one against the spread this season,
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: the first time since nineteen sixty dogs of six plus
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: points are over five hundred straight up through five weeks.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: This is the best against the spread win percentage we've
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: ever seen. So again, similar, it's the flip side of
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: the conversation we just had. Is this when you get
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: off that train? You know? Yeah, But here's the thing,
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: Like CJ. Stroud, this team has really struggled on first
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: and second down. They've clearly missed Joe Mixon in those
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: sort of high efficiency moments to get them to third
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: and fourth down in short yard of situations. They keep
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: getting penalties as an offense on first and second down.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: It's really inhibiting CJ. Stroud in those later downs. This
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: is a luck ranking game, huge gap between New England
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: and Houston, and Nico Collins probably is going to be out,
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: and we saw what happened when Nico Collins was out
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: against Buffalo, and so I do think that bodes well
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: for us again I'm not saying we're going to put
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: in the contest. We did bet it, both of us
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: have bet it. You can see it in the app.
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: I bet it at seven. But we're not gonna put
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: it in the contest. Simon, We're not putting it in
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: the contest.
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: Why do you keep saying that?
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: Because what we're gonna end up putting in the contest.
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I was just saying to me, this is just
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: this is a game we can't avoid. Like I knew
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: we were gonna love this number on Sunday Night, and
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: it's like, this is what this show does. We bet
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: these type of spots. Am I little scared because it's
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: Drake may coming in? Not really honestly. I mean I
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: saw there was throws to make for Brissett and he
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: just didn't make them. Like that's a guy that just
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: isn't that good. And like just watching these rookies, like, okay,
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: there is upside with these guys once they get it
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: figured out. Hesitation for me is we're betting on a
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: rookie in his first game like that. That's always a
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: scarier proposition. And you saw this year. Look how much
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: these qbs have grown just this year at least three
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: starters from their Week one game, right, Jane Daniels, You
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: would even recognize it if you go back and watch
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: his Week one tape. Williams too, Yeah, I would say,
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: Sam Williams.
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: So that's the looks exactly the same. He looks exactly
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: in the same.
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: That's the fear with us betting this number. It's like
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: we're getting we're getting a rookie in this spot. But
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: I love Drake May's tape so much. I love his
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: upside so much. It's like he to me, he's gonna
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: bring such another element to this offense with him being
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: able to run the ball, like people don't understand. He's sneakly, athletic,
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: obviously is a great arm, Like there's just gonna be
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: a bunch of bunch of throws. We're gonna need him
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: to make Chad that we're gonna be relying on this
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: rookie for if it is the starter. So I'm grabbing
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: the seven now. I could see it going up. If
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: it is Drake May, that is clear to be the starter.
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: Maybe it does bump up to seven and a half,
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: which once again be even harder for us to pass
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: on that number. In the contest, But you're right, this
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: trend is gonna go the other way eventually. That's the
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: crazy part about It's like last week I thought it
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: was gonna go the other way, it just got even better.
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: So it is tough to read these trends. You don't
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: know which way they're gonna go. And it's like, even
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: we'd like the number, it's a little scary. But right now,
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: if it's per Set, I have a point of value.
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: If it's Drake may I have half a point of
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: value on this number. It's just a trend spot, a
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: spot we like to fade CJ in. So if Nico
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: Collins Joe Mixon's that both are out, guarantee this will
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: be one on me and Chad's five. This even if
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: it is Drake.
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: May I think even if Nico Collins is out, this
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: might end up being yeah, one of our five, we're
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: gonna be hard pressed to ignore it. And it's not
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: like it's not like if there's a reversal of this trend,
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: if there is some regression for the Big six plus
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: underdogs to all of a sudden start cratering and not
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: be sixteen and two against the spread, which is obviously unsustainable.
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: The next game on the board is Cleveland visiting Philadelphia.
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is an eight and a half point underdog. Yeah,
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: team that is coming off a bye, and it's very
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: possible that could be the game where there ends up
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: being some regression. Very hard game to handicap. Andrew Beaton
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: from the Wall Street Journal, he's a writer for the Journal,
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: had a great story this week about Deshaun Watson and
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: he pointed out some things that we've all sort of
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: noticed but we haven't pinpointed, which is obviously, Deshaun Watson
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: has not been the same quarterback in Cleveland that he
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: was in Houston Offensively, Could there be lingering issues with
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: the shoulder injury that are creating challenges for him to
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: get the ball and make the throws that he really
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: wants to make. The offense is not making the calls
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: that they would normally make. It seems like a very
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: conservative offense. A lot of checkdowns, a lot of throws
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: that are to the side and not downfield. Are they
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: afraid that he's not able to make those throws, that
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: he doesn't have the confidence to make those throws? But
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: he also made a really good point some of the
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: analysts that he quoted in the story talked about how
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson is not looking downfield when the pass rush comes.
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: And we've noticed this, right, Patrick Homes, Lamar Jackson. The
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: best quarterbacks, they've got their eyes down field even when
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: the rush is coming in their face. Deshaun Watson isn't
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: doing that. He sees the rush, he's looking at the
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: rush and then he's bailing immediately. Like there's massive differences
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: and those aren't going to change no matter how big
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: of an underdog he is.
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: No, it's who will never truly know why he regressed
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: so much. I mean, he was if you go back
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: and watch, he was incredible. I mean I think he
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: won three straight divisions with us.
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: By the NFL quarterback when he was in Houston, Top five,
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: there's no argument.
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And I remember they were one of those teams
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: that you talk about the list of teams that were
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: like whatever it is, one in four, zero to three
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: to start a season to make the playoffs. Houston was
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: one of those teams with Watson like that. I remember
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: that season they won like eleven straight games before they
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: were into the juggernaut that is the Kansas City Chiefs.
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: And they cover that game, by the way, right in
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: the playoffs.
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: So it is it's bizarre. I feel so bad for
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: Browns fans because I wouldn't even be able to watch.
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: I don't think that team, like I just have sustained
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: for this man. He's so terrible as a human being
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: and equally on the football field, Like he quit on
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: his team last week. And I don't care what he
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: said to the media afterwards, Like everyone that watched that film,
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: anyone that played sports disgust in Kevin Stefanski's face when
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: he walked off the field on that fourth down. It
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: made my blood. Boy, it's just he's just this asshole.
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: I hate Deshaun Watson so much. So part of me
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: is happy this is happening because it's just like this
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: guy is a horrible person. But I just feel bad
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: for the Browns fans. They're one of my favorite fan bases.
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: No one's more tortured than them, the Bills in Detroit,
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: like they're just it's just brutal for Browns fans, Like
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: they have the team, they just don't have the leader.
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: I want to take the Eagles here, just because they're
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: getting aj back, they're getting Smith back, getting lane Johnson back.
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: It's after a bye week, like there should be so
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: much fresher at home. But as Chad just said, we're
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: supposed to take the Browns or this is a big number,
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: and the Eagles haven't blown anyone out in like three years,
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: so I don't think he goes deserve this much respect.
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: I'll put all my hate aside. I'll take the plus number,
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: but this is definitely not one. I'll make one of
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: my five, but I'll I.
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: Gotta tell you, I did not see you saying that.
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: Everything you said about Deshan Watson doesn't surprise me at all.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: The fact you say you are taking the Browns at
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: plus eight and a half, I am stone cold shocked.
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: These are not good. This is way too much respect
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: to a team. Well, I know that doesn't respect.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: Coming off the buy. I don't know that they deserve
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: to get eight and a half points. This feels like
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: a line that you're giving to a team that has
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: been dominating heading into the by.
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: I think he says more about Cleveland, don't you.
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: It does, But it's the line you give to a
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: team that you believe. He was a clear consensus number
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: one seed and is dominant against a team that is terrible,
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: and so I think this says a lot about Cleveland,
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: but I think it also says a lot about sort
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: of mispricing what you believe the Eagles to be and
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: everything you just said. People coming back from the injured
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: list and them getting a week off, some of these
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: coaching decision making, strategic issues that they've had for the
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: entirety of their season, and going back to last season,
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: they kind of still exist. The secondary is still not
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: that great, the linebackers are still not that great. We
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: don't know what kind of player we're going to get
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: from that defensive line, whether it's Jordan Davis or Jalen Carter,
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: Like those questions were existing before all these guys got hurt.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: So it feels like a lot of points. I don't
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: even want to talk about Cleveland Browns again in this context.
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: There's no way. There's no way we're putting this game
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: in the contest.
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: I agree, no way.
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: India, Tennessee Joe Flacco number one quarterback in the league
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: in EPA, which is basically a very advanced metric that
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: tells you how effective you are on a play by
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: play base. Number one quarterback in the league EPA last week.
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: Let me give you a stat line, thirty three forty
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: four three point fifty nine three touchdowns against the Jags,
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: nearly pulled off a miracle comeback. Made Doug Peterson look
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: like he wanted to melt into the Florida sun. He
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: just wanted to eliminate himself from any of the conversations
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: after he hit that game time touchdown pass. Like Doug
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: Peterson looked miserable. Joe Flacco also had a nineteen yard
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: run thirty nine years old. Whatever this guy is good
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: for him? Like, the guy is just flat out balling.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: And I think we feel worse about the Colts if
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: it was gonna be Anthony Richardson. I don't like. I
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: have concerns about this team. DeForest Buckner not playing until
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: at least week seven, Jonathan Taylor is still TBD with
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: an ankle spraying. We don't know. I don't know that
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: Will Levis with a week off is any better. I'm
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: happy to ignore this game unless you have a strong opinion.
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: It isn't the Joe Flacco thing, though he never played
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: this well even in his prime years for the Ravens, like.
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: He was rejuvenated. It's almost like he feels free, unburdened exactly.
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: I was gonna say unburdened. Like everything is gravy right now.
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: Any way he plays it doesn't matter. So he is loose,
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: he is slinging it. He's not trying to live up
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: to expectations. He's not trying to prove he's elite, not
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: trying to prove up that he's worthy of that big contract.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: He's just having fun because he's got perspective. It's amazing
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: to watch.
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: And like you just said though, like he's he's incredible
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: when he is on, like it's it's wild to watch. Rude,
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: you wouldn't think he's thirty eight, thirty nine years old.
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: He looks so locked in and his arm strength is
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: just off the charts, like his deep balls are still perfect. Yeah,
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: like this this game is fishy? Why would we not
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: take the Colts here? So I'm with you, I'll have
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: a better read come Thursday, and on this one we'll
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: definitely bring it up again people. But instant read on
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: this one is I have this number of minus two
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: and a half for the Colts. Love the number on
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: the Colts. Why would I not take the Colts here?
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: I was kicking myself last Sunday with two minutes into that,
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: I was like, how did we not we sit on
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: the show. We would take the Colts if they were
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: at three and a half, and somehow we forgot to
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: take them Sunday morning, and like, of course they covered
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: that number because it's Joe Flaka. You're just You're never
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: dead when you have Joe Flacco in at QB. So
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: the books know something I'm missing here. So this is
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: what I'm gonna wait and see, get more info on
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: it come Thursday.
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: For the old heads, I don't think we can call
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: Joe Flacco battered Flacco anymore. He's like a light, grilled,
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: tasty summary Flaco. Now. He's a guy who brings us joy,
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: makes us feel healthy, and inspires us. He's not a
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: battered Flacco. Scooch is going to have to find a
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: new recipe for the record. Though home underdogs last decade
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: in September October fifty nine percent against the spread. And
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: the reason why we highlight September October is because you
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: get later in the season when a lot of these
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: division games happen. Sure, a lot of these games will
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: have huge impact on the playoffs, but a lot of them.
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: Season's over, like you're getting scrubs versus teams trying to
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs, like there could be imbalance. So I
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: think it's a true measure of this stat when you
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: get it in September October. Not saying we want to
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: take the Titans. I'm just saying, yeah, that's why we
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: think about the Titans. Here I mentioned at the top
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: of the show, we are coming to you live from
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: our Tommy John home studios. Great games start with great underwear,
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: and Tommy John makes the greatest. You can see it
• 39:18
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• 39:58
  Speaker 1: I feel like you're enjoying my time. John reads more
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: and more every single time because now you're audibly giggling
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: when I read them.
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: Because I don't know where you're gonna go. I don't
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: know if you're talking about your underwear, your shirt, what
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: are you gonna be saying next?
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: Arizona Green Bay, Green Bay five point favorite. This is
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: a funky line, Like I'm surprised it hasn't moved one way.
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: It did it one of the five and a half
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: it came back down?
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: But oh it did I didn't even see that. Yeah,
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: Like I said this on Sunday night, the eye test,
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: the fade test, it all makes me want to take.
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: I'm with you the packers. Yeah. And even though like
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: I don't have much value on this line either, I
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: think it is good. I think it's a good number,
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: and I think there's the book hung or a good
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: number to get fair action on both sides. Pretty much
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: like you know, if you took Arizona last week and
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: you're feeling pretty good on the flip side, Green Bay,
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: it feels like they kind of stolen last week and
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: that you know, Jordan Love has looked rusty since coming
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: back from this injury, right, he's not really in a rhythm.
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: You know. They also have a bunch of drama right
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: now with who was a dobbs? I remember, Yeah, was
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: getting upset because they weren't getting touches even though he
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: was second on the team and at the Y two
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: position in touches, which was just it was very wide receiver.
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: Elect to be a diva in that sense. But I'm
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: with you. I've actually come around on this green bag.
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: You're right, this is like a nice spot on the
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: flip side. If we lose this, I'll be happy for
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: our future market because this is like, Okay, this is
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: really Kyler truly taking that next step. Because I said
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: before that forty nine Ers game, I thought he had
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: regressed after the Rams game, like he was so good
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: that you were like, Okay, he's gonna keep getting better
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: throughout this season. Did not happen, right, and then thankfully
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: he played pretty damn well against that forty nine Ers team.
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: Here is even more so, like this is what me
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: and chatter are saying here is we don't believe in you, Kyler.
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: This is a game you always lose and you never cover.
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: You always have a letdown after these big wins historically.
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: So I'm with you. This is literally a proven to
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: be kind of bet here on this on this Green
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: Bay team, we're saying to theay Arizona, it's like, Okay,
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: you guys are going to be the sixth seventh seed
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: this year, maybe contend for your division. This is a
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: game you must win, and I don't think they're going to.
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: I do think this is a good matchup for Green Bay,
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: especially the way they've been running the ball. This is
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: a nice matchup defensively as well for takeaways against Kyler.
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: So I'm with you, Chad. It took me to come around.
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: I wasn't there Sunday night, but now here on Tuesday.
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: I'm with you. I like the screen Bay. This might
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: be one of our only favorites we agree on, but
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: I think we both like this side.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose, Simon, and that's what
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: we have right now. It's interesting you say that about Kyler.
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: We don't love Green Bay's defense necessarily as a unit. No,
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: I have to give them credit for their ability to
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: ballhawk right. And they picked up a couple more interceptions
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: against the Rams on Sunday, and this is a situation,
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: Kyler has the tendency to just backfoot toss it. He
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: will try to make it a fifty to fifty ball.
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: He will just let it loose. He does that. We've
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: talked about the Packers and their proclivity sat season proclivity
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: for interceptions. This year, with Jeff Hafley new defensive coordinator,
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: they've already got more picks than they had all of
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: last year. That was true two weeks ago. And so
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: I like the opportunity against Kyler to make some mistakes
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: on the road. A come down spot for sure. But
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: also this to me is about the Cardinals defense, and
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: like Brock Purdy was definitely having his way against that defense.
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: This is not a good pass rush defense. It is
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: not a good pass coverage defense. I think this is
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: a game. Now is third game back, Jordan Love gets
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: a little more comfortable, he's back at home. They cannot
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: do the same things that the Vikings did against the
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: Packers in his first game, where they could confuse him
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: and don't forget in the second half of that game,
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: he got much better. He brought that team back. So
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: I like the spot for the Packers. I don't like
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: the spot for the Cardinals, and I find some matchup
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: opportunities that I think play to our favor all right,
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: I'm glad we got there. Boy, we screwed up on
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay game because I think before last night,
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay was a two and a half point dog.
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: Now because of Derek Carr's injury and the status and
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: the way they played, now Tampa Bay is a two
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. I don't have anything to
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: say about this game specifically. Do you have strong thoughts here? Yeah?
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: It was gonna be a great spot for the Saints.
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: Now it's like, how do you not load up on
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: the Bucks in this spot?
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: Now? Yeah?
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: Like the biggest reason I was going to kind of
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: lean towards the Bucks was Vitavey, Like this is the
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: perfect game for him where it's like, how do you
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: beat this Saints team? And we've learned now through five
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: weeks you got to take away the run. Once you
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: take that away, it kind of threw is the whole
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: offense out of a rhythm. And you know, Derek Carr,
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: he's gonna try to burn you once or twice with
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: those deep shots. But you know this backup, QB, I
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: have zero idea what this kid can do passing the ball.
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: I don't really know anything about them, but no, this
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: number two and a half, I grabbed it just in
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: case it is Derek Carr out. This number will only
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: go up to me. I mean, especially the way the
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: Bucks have been playing offensively. It's like, you know, I
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: know the Saints defense isn't as bad as they showed
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: in that Chiefs game, but there's still ways to attack
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: this team. I think the Bucks, of all teams know
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: how to do that, right they They usually historically Lattimore
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: kind of shuts down like Evans. That's usually a good
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: guy win game. That's another thing you can look towards. So, yeah,
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: this is unfortunate, Like this was gonna be a nice
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: spot to back this Saints team at home. Now it's like,
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: how do you not love the Bucks of this number?
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: Like that's a nice, nice value. I can only see
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: this going up. Even when I looked before you mentioned
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: the game, I saw a couple books already showing threes
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: on the So yeah, if you like Tam i'd grab
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: it now just in case he is in fact out
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: of this game. Derek Carr.
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, look, they were terrible last night against the Chiefs,
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: and yet through much of the game, deep into the
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: third quarter, they were still in it. I mentioned I
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: turned it off. I turned it off last night. They
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: had third and eight in Chiefs territory. When you make
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: that third down call, you know you're going to go
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: for it on fourth down. And on that third down,
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: because you're the position you're in, you can't keep the
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: field goal. It's a little bit too far. You're going
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: to give the Chiefs good field position if you miss
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: it. It was like a sixty year field goal. But you
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: need to keep moving. And like you know, if you
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: don't score in that series, the game is probably over.
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: The Chiefs are going to do something to get themselves
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: in a position to score again. You need to go
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: for it on fourth down. Their fourth down call was
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: a deep pass down the right sideline, and Derek Carr
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: had not been hitting those passes all day. And then
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: on fourth down, you know they're going to bring a blitz.
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: They bring the entire everybody at zero coverage. They can't
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: complete it obviously, and that's when Derek Carr gets hurt. Like,
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of faulty decision making on this Saints team,
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: and I think some of the performance of Derek Carr
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: has overshadowed that and maybe papered over some of the
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: really bad coaching. Lost a lot of faith in the
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: Saints last night. Gotta say didn't have much to begin
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: with now I have even less. Pittsburgh Steelers going on
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: the road at Las Vegas minus three. Kind of don't
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: like anything here. I don't like the Raiders QB issues.
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: I don't like their offensive issues. I don't like defensive issues.
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: I don't like the Steelers on the road as a favorite.
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: That's a terrible Tomlin spot.
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: So get the opponent. They name those gray faces.
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: Tomlin on the road thirty three, forty one and two
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: is a favorite against the spread forty five percent in
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: his career, you know, by comp as a road dog
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: nearly sixty percent against the spread in his career. You're
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: signing that feels to me like you want to bet
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: the Steelers, but you know you don't.
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: Know, no, no, You're supposed to bet the Raiders here.
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: This is historically a nice spot to back the Raiders
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: at home against a team that defensively their splits are different.
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: They're great outdoors indoors. They're just not the same team.
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: Usually like this. They're just not good when it's a
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: fast surface. That's how the Raiders want to beat teams.
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: You're right, I don't know who the hell the quarterback
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: is of the Raiders right now as we sit here
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: on Tuesday. So I'm not putting any money to this
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: one yet either. On the flip side, I'm hoping hoping
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: it's Russell Wilson. I heard some whispers that they might
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: turn to Russell Wilson. Now, to me, that would be
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: that would be great if that's true.
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: I hadn't heard that.
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean just from my view, I think they
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: had the same view. Brother we had Sunday night of
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: like there were guys open. He just had a horrible
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: game just in fields and and you know that's been
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: the knock on him. He's been inconsistent in his whole career.
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: That's a game you just have to win. Like your
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: defense did everything, put you in so many great positions
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: to win that game. I just could not get anything
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: going against are really banged up Dallas defense. So yeah,
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: we'll see, as we say here Tuesday. Right now, Field
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: is still the quarterback and we have no idea who
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: the Raiders quarterback. If come Thursday, it's Minshew and it's
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: Russell Wilson. I'll take this plus three almost every time
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: with this Raiders team.
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: I thought that coaching decision to take out Minshew was
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: really strange. I mean, look, he that killed him.
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: Though I'd be pissed too. They were dominating that game
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: and he completely sandbag.
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: They were going to win that game going away. They
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: were about to go up seventeen to three. He airmailed
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: the ball that was picked off by certain and terrible
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: run back one hundred yards for a pick six, and
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: that that completely changed the tone and tenor of the game.
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: And they you know, they couldn't get their footing back.
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: But it just creates a controversy for this week. And
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: Aidan O'Connell was terrible. So like CARDI, Minshew at least
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: will make the throw. You can get the ball down field.
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: But we're gonna pause on that one. LA Chargers at
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: Denver Broncos. Denver Broncos are three point home dogs. This
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: is a brutal, a brutal handicap.
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: What a line, though, Were you shocked by this line?
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: I was shocked when I saw this line.
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: Shocked, Yeah, shocked because it makes me want to take
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: the dog. Of course, I want to take the home
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: dog in the division.
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: Herbert hasn't looked healthy in three weeks, doesn't matter they
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: had a bye week. It's like, isn't this a three
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: to four week injury that needs a heal from?
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: So here's the thing. You know, during the NCAA tournament,
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: you always get these bet on games right where the
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: way the seatings work out, you end up getting the
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: two teams that you believe are undervalued and you want
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: to bet on both of them, but you're hoping they
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: were going to play like Duke in North Carolina, not
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: each other in the eight nine game. This has the
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: feel of that to me, because we've got Jim Harbaugh,
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: who's been brilliant as an NFL coach against the spread,
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: against Sean Payton, who's been brilliant as an NFL coach
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: against the spread, who, by the way, like he has
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: to be all in on Boon Knicks. He is reached
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: for a second round quarterback in the middle of the
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: first round and then invested his entire offense in developing
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: around this guy. He has to work for Sean Payton
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: have any success at the Broncos right now, and like,
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: I don't want to bet against Sean Payton, but he's
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh's offa by Herbert was still wearing the ankle
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: brace in practice, but we know Joe All was a
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: full participant. Slater and Bosa practiced, although on the sideline
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: could be trending to playing. It's like, what are we
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: doing here?
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: No, don't tell me the week I'm either on the charge,
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: I'm not been in this game at all because I
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: just don't understand this line at all. So I'll trust
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: the books and I'll just go against my molleory and
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: be like, you know what you just said it. They
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: must think you get both those guys up front for
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: that old line on this Chargers team, you're neutralized. What's
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: been so great for that Denver team? Like Denver's D
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: line has been incredible. Yeah, so you know this whole
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: game plan, it doesn't really cater towards whatever it is.
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: It's just the books are looking at this saying this,
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: this is definitely a Chargers side that it favors them
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: this matchup. So I'll trust them here, Chad, and I'll
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: kind I'll kind of swallow my pride here and I'll
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: ride with the book here. But man, do I have
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: no confidence in making this bet? I just I'm missing something.
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: I don't know what they're seeing, but they're clearly seeing
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: something here.
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: Maybe this will be a sharp cause, right, maybe we'll
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: get some some intel on this. What do you have?
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: A power rated at one?
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: So I had it, literally, I have the Chargers if
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: it was going to be a pick. Once I heard
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: Herbert was all good and he was gonna actually play
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: this game, moved it up to one. They should be
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: a one point favorite, right, you just said it, like
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: they're the better, more veteran team. The Broncos are playing
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: with house money. Sitting here at three and two through
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: five weeks. I mean, this is incredible how well they've
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: played early here in the season. So yeah, you just
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: expect this rookie to cost them a couple of games,
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: Like there's a reason, like you just said, there's a
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: reason he did went so late where he did. But
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: they've just been hiding it. They've been protecting against it,
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: and it's really incredible how they've made it work earlier
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: in the season, Like they just don't let this kid
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: eat them where you know, looking at Tennessee, they can't
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: stop Will Levis from beating them. They have to take
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: them out of the game so they can win a
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: freaking game with Mason Rudolph, you know. So it is
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: just night and day. These different teams. They are different
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: the way they build and how they coach these guys.
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: So yeah, like I said, there's something I'm clearly missing here,
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: Like there's two points of value in my model right
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: now to Denver. But something's off, something a little fishy
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: with this line. So yeah, right now back to Chargers,
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: but definitely a game I'm going to dive into more.
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: I'm so glad you said that because when I was
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: doing my research all day Monday and then even into
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: this morning, I kept thinking I want to back the Chargers,
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: like I just I'm not trusting what I'm seeing from
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: bo Nicks, right, you know. And what's nice about getting
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: four or five games under your belt is you can
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: deconstruct the team's progress and their wins and losses and
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: what three and two really looks like. Right, there's sort
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: of a gambling transitive property. The Broncos played close against
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks. Did we think the Seahawks were not as good?
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: Did we think the Broncos were better. Now we're starting
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: to see maybe the Seahawks weren't as good. Then the
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: Broncos beat up on the Jets in the Meadowlands in
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: a really bad weather game. They executed at the end,
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: the Jets did not. Does that mean the Broncos are
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: better because we were starting to believe in the Jets. No,
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: it turns out the Jets might have just been really
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: dysfunctional and that they aren't able to win those games,
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: and now they fired their coach. So how are we
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: thinking about the Broncos versus the Chargers, who to me,
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: there's less volatility, Like if you looked at their EKG,
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: you know what you're getting. Every single time when we've
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: talked about this, it's why we bet the Chargers is
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: seven or a half point underdogs against the Chiefs. They're
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: a consistent team. We know what the mindset is. We
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: know they want to be physical, we know they want
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: to run the ball, we know they want to play
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: aggressive defense. We know that they are building the team
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: around the players that can do that. They don't want
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: Herbert to make mistakes for them, Like they're in line
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: to be the adult team in this game? Do you
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: know what I mean?
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: And that's the key too, is they just his Harbass.
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: Whole thing this year has just been Herbert is not
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: going to lose us games. We are not turning the
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: ball over. If we don't turn the ball over and
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: we let the other team make a mistake, that's how
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: we'll win games. And that's what they've done this season.
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: They've just played this really boring, sluggish, drawl it out,
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: punch you in the mouth, running football with Herbert every
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: now and then have a nice play on play action read.
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: But he's not turning the ball over. And that's really
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: been their identity. It's like they eventually they just wait,
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: like a venus fly trap. They wait for you to
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: make a mistake and then they pounce and it's it's
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: been working. Like even in that Chiefs game, I felt
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: like we were gonna win that game if Herbert really
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: hadn't gotten hurt again, like they were up I think
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: was a ten to nothing at one point whatever it was.
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: It was like, they're gonna win this game if they
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: get another touchdown here, and obviously he got more banged
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: up and they just they couldn't get there. But yeah,
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: there I could see. It's starting to make sense to
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: why this number is what it is. But at the
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: same time, it's just it's a funny number. Just can
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: we talk all the time? We really usually want to
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: take these divisional home dogs, especially in October.
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: Harball is so predictable. He's not trying to be sexy.
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: He's told us his entire career who he is. We
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: know what we're going to get, less volatility. I know
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: the line is funky. I want to hear more intel
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: from the sharp calls or whatever else you find out
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: over the next forty eight hours. It's not a bet yet,
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: but it's on the list. Another game on the list
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: Detroit at the Dallas Cowboys. Look, you talked about this
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: on Sunday. The Cowboys are three and a half point
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: home underdogs. We would normally hate taking a road favorite
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: like this that we're hesitating on the Chargers right as
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: road favorites.
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: You started as public as we get with public best.
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: You started the show nine home underdogs this week. This
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: is a week where we like to eat. But you
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: Saturday Sunday night, Detroit at minus three, it's gone up
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: to three and a half. I don't think that's public money.
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: Earlier in the week. I think that's pros betting on
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: the Lions, and I don't disagree. I got a whole
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: boatload of research and matchup that makes me feel that way.
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: But you're still feeling that way.
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: Detroit? Yeah, how is this not a slam dunk? Another
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: great matchup for Detroit, Like all their strengths is this
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: Cowboys team weaknesses like they should be able to run
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: it down Dallas' throat and defensively, I don't think they
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: mind Dak passing the ball a lot, like their defense
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: can't get turnovers. They're not as bad as they used
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: to be, especially in the secondary. So yeah, I love
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: this matchup, especially when it's at three. But this is
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: gonna be the most public side of the week. I mean,
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: how does every Joe public now walk in and take
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: a minus three on the lines here? I just I
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: think everyone's looking at this Dallas team and just thinking fraudulent,
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: Like across the board, there's just so many things you
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: don't trust about them. And you know, had tipped to
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: Dak that was incredible him him driving. I had no
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: faith that he was gonna actually drive that field against
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: that Pittsburgh defense. It was just vintage Pittsburgh finds a
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: way to win that game, an ugly game that's such
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: a Tomlin game where he wins and you know, sure enough,
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: I think it was like a bad snap, they fumbled
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: out of the back whatever it was, and it's like
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: fourth and four. I was like, there's no way they're
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: going to get this and Dak big time throw, perfect touch,
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: put it right where he needed to. That's that's why
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: you pay a guy like him that that kind of money.
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: It's like he, to me needed that kind of that
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: kind of game, right. That could be something where maybe
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: we're missing that they're riding into this game high and
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: they do show up and play well against the Detroit
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: team that might be a little sluggish coming off their
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: bye week. But me and shiet I don't know that shit.
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: You can't bet on that. Models don't predict this stuff.
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: So I have this number a four and a half.
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: I have a ton of value right now on Detroit.
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: So unfortunately, like I'm hoping chat right, that is professional
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: money coming in. But I'm with the public now, like
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: there's still a couple of books that have threes out there.
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: We get off this call, I'm heading right down a
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: lank city making a bunch of bets on Detroit. So
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: I love this side? You love this side? Is this
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: a decision or now?
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: I was going to say, this is my exact decision.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are you
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: heavy on what I say? Textecute executive decision?
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: Are you were going to steal it?
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: I was tempted to because it's still three. But I
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: know it's not our sponsor's book.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: But I actually thought you were going to go with
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: a different Simon says, because I know there's another.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: Game, you know what's coming up.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you know you feel pretty strongly about And I
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: just kept digging into this game, and there's there's like
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: in the same way that I like the predictability of
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: Harbaugh and the Chargers and sort of the physical nature
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: of what he's trying to do. I like what Dan
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: Campbell is turning this team into, which is a dominant
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: team at the line of scrimmage.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: Let me tell you something. I got goosebumps, gentlemen. I
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: love this team.
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: And if you look at the Lions and what they
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: did when we wanted to get back on that bandwagon
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: I did against the Seahawks, I thought they were going
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: to try to physically dominate that team and get back
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: to the idea that they are playing football. Football is
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: a game of violence. They are going to control the
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: line of scrimmage right The line strength right now is
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: at that line of scrimmage. Offensively, defensively, they are amongst
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: the top five teams in the league because of their
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: ability to run, block, pass block, and rush the passer.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: On the flip side. The Cowboys one of the worst
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: pass blocking teams in the league. So we've got a
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: matchup advantage for the Lions at the line of scrimmage
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: with their pass rushers, and they are literally the worst
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: defense in the league if you look at all the
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: advanced metrics from a run perspective. Sorry, I want to
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: be clear, worst rush defense in the league. So again,
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: you don't want to keep the ball in Jared Goff's hands.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: I think they got a little bit sort of two
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: tricky sexy out of character with Jared Goff. Early in
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: the season. He was amazing eighteen eighteen against the Seahawks,
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: but he was like trying to overdo it. That was
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: a dominant physical performance. I think we could see the
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: same thing here against the Cowboys. Love it boom, all right,
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: Atlanta Carolina. Carolina is a six point dog. Why are
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: they doing this to us? Why? Why are the bookmakers
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: doing this to us? Why are they tempting us? Why
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: are the Panthers tempting us? Why do the Panthers play
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: great with Andy Dalton and make us believe that they
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: can be competitive and then have them get blown out
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: and then make them six point home dogs, forcing us
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: to consider the Panthers against an Atlanta team that we
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: have also liked to back this year. What are we
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: doing here, Simon? I don't mean that existentially, I just
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: mean with this game.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you know what we're supposed to do here, We're
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: supposed to take Carolina. But yeah, all that keeps going
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: off on my head chat is this fame and who's
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: just been shitting on me? And you? And my messages?
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: Anytime I tweet, too, usually have black people that are
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: just fucking brutal because it's like, this is my world, bitch,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna let you just shit on me constantly
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: my own world. But this guy's hilarious, Like, if you're
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: funny about it, I'm gonna let you keep it right,
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: keep it going, comment all my postshit on me because
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: it's funny. I'm with people. It is funny. Every week
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: he tweets his record on fading this Panthers team. Know
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: what that record is this year?
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: Well it's probably four and one.
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: It's four and one chat and I laugh. The kid's right.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: Every week he comments to me, goes another week making
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: money fading this Panthers team, And I just laugh. It's like,
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: I have another week where I've lost money bettingless Panthers team.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: So yeah, it's brutal. I don't know what to do.
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: We're supposed to take them. I have. This is a
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: good number of my model, all of it. It's like,
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: but the computer doesn't know. This is a team of losers.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: They just stink. They're so bad. If Andy Dalton wasn't playing,
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: I would be all over this Falcons team here. But
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: you just there's gonna be a back door, right, That's
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: my whole thought with this number. It's like, how do
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: we not take this big number, especially this year where
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: they've been covering. So I got no read on this
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: one yet, Like I'm tortured. I want to take the Panthers.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: I like the matchup for the Panthers. This Atlanta team
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: as good as they've been this year. They've stolen a
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: lot of wins at the end of games, right, They've
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: kind of been a coin flip team and all their games,
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: for the most part, are really close. So it's like,
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: how do we not back this Panthers team? So right
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: now I'm on the Panthers, But I don't want to
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: make this one of our official five. I just I'm
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: having a tough time with this one.
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: Chet it's getting interesting. I don't know that we're going
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: to have an official five coming out of this.
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: I feel like we're definitely I mean, I have like
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: seven games I.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: Like, so we're I think we've got seven that we like,
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: but we don't have five that we love.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: There's a big we'll get there. It's just yeah, right now,
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: we just know we have to do and we're both
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: fighting it because we're just we're looking our wounds right now.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: It's tough to dive into these ugly home dogs and
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: you're you're freaking eating hot dogs and rice. Yeah, when
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: I'm saving money, that's where I try to save it.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: That food.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: That's so funny because to me, I don't eat the
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: hot dogs anymore. But if I were on death row,
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: my last meal is going to be a Chicago dog.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: I saw them.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: Nathan's or Hebrew Nationals are my favorite hot dogs.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: Now I need Vienna beef like hoppy seed bun, the
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: celery salt, the yellow mustard, the green relish, you name it,
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: that's it. Sunday Football teenya up here, Cincinnati at the
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: New York Giants. New York Giants plus three and a half?
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: You like the Giants on Sunday. I don't have a
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: strong opinion here. I'm going to tee you up. Like
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: I said. Joe Burrow's MVP Odds You and Evan called
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: this out a few weeks ago. They've dropped even more.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: They're down to about fifteen to one third in EPA
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: as quarterback, second in QB rating behind Joe Flacco, of course,
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: first and touchdowns second and fewest interception with just two.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: Tell me what you're thinking.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: Oh man, yeah, this is my Simon says, bet Chad.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: When Simon says do it, we do what Sen says.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: They don't sound convinced, though.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: No I am. It's just I'm looking at the board here.
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: What's my favorite bet right now? And I'm making the
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: Simon says, just because I do think this could move.
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: It might get the four, like that's what I'm just
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: double checking it before I do give it out. But no,
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: I think I'm right. I think it's slanted towards slanted
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: towards this going down to three. So give me Giants
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: plus three and a half. It's really more about Cincinnati
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: and their defense. I just in what world can they
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: be getting this hook here? And I know the public's
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: gonna come in on them just because Joe Burrow has
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: played so well. But man, like this Giants front line,
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to get to Joe Burrow. I
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: think I think they're gonna be able to get pressure
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: and they're gonna be able to maybe turn him over. No, offensively,
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: Daniel Jones looks comfortable, he looks in rhythm. He doesn't
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: look like the guy we saw in the first two
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: weeks right coming back from major injury. So yeah, the
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: fact that I want to get this now is I
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: think if Neighbors gets cleared, this goes down to three. Right.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: I think he does move a half a point. That's
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: all dominant, impressive he's been earlier in this year, So
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: I'll make this. Simon says, just to grab this now
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: just in case it does drop down to three by Thursday.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: I have no opinion on this game right now. I
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: think the Bengals are going to be terminally undervalued from
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: now until they all of a sudden are in the playoffs,
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: which I still think they could possibly do. Bengals are
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: one and four, they have a five point six percent
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: chance of making the playoffs. Historically, that's how often teams
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: who have been in this position had made the playoffs.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: I have to believe that lou An Rumo is going
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: to get this defense right. A lot of new players,
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: but Burrow is playing so well right now, yeah, that
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: it's hard to bet against him.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: Is the problem.
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: I will say. Giants pass coverage, we thought they'd be
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: trash top ten in the league right now. And their
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: defensive line. You got Dexter Lawrence playing top three as
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: a defensive lineman interior defensive lineman. So they're not as
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: bad as we think as we've been thinking they are.
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: Brian day Ball is scheming the heck out of these games.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: As a coach, I'm as a coach, I am impressed
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: by Brian Dayball. I'm not saying I'm a coach saying
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: I've been impressed with Brian Dable. All Right, last game
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: on the board, we got to talk about the Buffalo
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: Bills visiting the Aaron Rodgers owned coached, quarterbacked, schemed GMed
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: New York Jets. And if I say that and I
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: sound facetious, it's because I cannot believe how this guy
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: is controlling this team in a way. This poor Robert
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: solid guy has had to find ways to thread the
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: needle on saying stuff critically about Aaron Rodgers in the
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: public without having to offend Aaron Rodgers in the locker
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: room and getting his high priced, glamorous quarterback mad at him.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: All or not, the guy's been fired now. The mess
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: is all in Aaron Rodgers. It doesn't matter who's coaching
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: this team. He wants to do what he wants to do,
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: and it doesn't matter how bad it is for the team.
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: So I know what we got to do here.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: What are we doing?
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: Chad gotta bet the New York Jets.
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the only choice. And unfortunately we were really
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: hoping this would be up to plus three. I don't
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: think it's ever going to get there now, especially after
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: him getting fired. I think it was going to be
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: just professionals on this Jets team here now, I think
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: a little bit of public money will come in on
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: them as well. Also love the Jets like this back
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: to back weeks were really gonna wait till Monday night
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: for our picks, but this felt like this was gonna
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: be one of our five coming into this week. Historically,
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen doesn't match up well against his Chets team,
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: Like defensively, they know how to kind of attack him,
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: make him uncomfortable, and that was when he had Digs
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: and Gabe Davis guys he kind of relied on. Now
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: you saw last week right, he struggled to throwing the
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: ball downfield just because he doesn't really have a rhythm
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: or trust these receivers. I don't know what it's going on,
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: but it did not look right. Now only the city,
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: only people living in Buffalo or fans of Buffalo think
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: he didn't sustain a concussion. I think any of us.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: I'm going back and rewatched it. It's just like, oh
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: my god.
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: That was not a chest injury.
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: No, whatever they're trying to spin, it's total bullshit. I
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: think it's the NFL classic. We got a guy playing
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: on Monday night. We can't have him missing this primetime game.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: They're gonna make him. He's gonna be clear, he's gonna
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: be practicing. He's gonna play in this game. I have
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: no doubt we will see Josh Allen. So yeah, this
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: is a nice, nice spot to take the Jets in
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: a would we call this a bilo? I mean this
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: like this to me, this is like everything's kind of
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: going wrong right now for the Jets. Everything's kind of negative.
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: Already kind of love this spot, just the matchup wise.
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: Our only fear is Aaron Rodgers has not looked right
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: in weeks. I mean he's just been bad, Like he's
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: missing bad throws. When there's any bit of pressure, he
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: folds up rather than eluding it. So I get people's
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: hesitation here, but this is really about playing this number
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: in this divisional spot. This to me is closer to
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: a pick. We're getting about what a point and a
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: half two points of free value here, just because everyone's
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: so down on this Jets team, where I don't think
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: the Bills are that much better, Like this team has
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: major issues and major holes, things that can be exploited,
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: especially by this Jets team. So yeah, let's let's take
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: this jetsing to bounce back after firing their coach and
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: take the plus two and a half Jets.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: We are getting what we at the Action Network like
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: to call the dead cat bounce the team after the
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: coach has been fired. Story of a tweet from Awful
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: announcing that Matt Mitchell just put in the chat Jets
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: owner Woody Johnson friend say or Eric Mangini, former Jets coach,
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: predicted that Jets owner Woody Johnson would be pissed off
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: if the Jets lost in London because he used to
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: be the Ambassador to Saint James Court aka the ambassador
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: to the UK. Oh yeah, and he knew he was
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: going to have people who he was friendly with in
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: attendance and they were going to give him crap.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: I that's not true.
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: Gets lost. So we could have predicted Robert slab and
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: gone got the idea of having to bet a Monday
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: night game and have it be in the contest, and
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: it'd be something I have to stay up late for.
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: I can't.
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: You just did it with Derek Carr. I went to
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 2: bed early.
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: I went to bed because I just couldn't deal. I
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: took the melatonin and I'm like, I'm done. I am
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: not not doing this to myself. I gotta get off
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: to a good start this week. All right. Well that's
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: where we're at. Before I get into the final bit,
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: I do want to recap a little bit because I
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: don't want people to think we've missed anything. EXAC decision
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: was Detroit. I'm taking the minus three. It's available widely.
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: Simon says, Giants plus three and a half. Other games
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: that we talked about that we started to feel strongly
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: about to narrow down Washington six and a half. We
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: think we're going to get some pushback on that from
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: sharp calls. New England plus seven. We're waiting for more
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: intel on Indie and Tennessee. We want to bet Indie,
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: but it feels like a trap. Green Bay minus five,
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: Tampa minus two and a half, Chargers minus three, Jesus Simon,
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: Detroit minus three and a half, Carolina plus six. We
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: got nine freaking home dogs, and we got six different
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: games here that are favorites. What are we doing.
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 2: It's gonna come back around. We said it last week
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: when we fell into the trap. Anyway, we said the
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: public was going to finally have a good week. Yeah,
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: what do we do anyway, we still bet a bunch
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: of dogs, so I'm trying to find the fine balance,
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: cheed fine balance.
• 1:14:20
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