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Russia could target a NATO state within weeks · DEEP INSIGHT

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  Speaker 1: Could Russia attack NATO within just a few weeks? Well
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  Speaker 1: in the United States now seems to think so. Details
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  Speaker 1: of new intelligence reports have been outlined in this article
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  Speaker 1: by The Wall Street Journal. It says Russia's President Vladimir
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  Speaker 1: Putin could test NATO's resolve with a limited incursion on
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  Speaker 1: an Allied country, and that could happen as soon as
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  Speaker 1: this fall, that is next month now. The key quote
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  Speaker 1: from that article sets out how US intelligence thinks Russia
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  Speaker 1: could strike. It says the possible threats range from a
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  Speaker 1: cyber attack on a NATO country or sending unmarked armed
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  Speaker 1: groups to occupy territory, to a limited incursion on the
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  Speaker 1: alliance's eastern flank. The timeframe for any move by Russia
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  Speaker 1: is estimated to happen between this fall and the year
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  Speaker 1: twenty twenty nine. That's according to the US intelligence assessments.
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  Speaker 1: So are those US assessments right and just how might
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  Speaker 1: the US respond if Russia does design to mount an
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  Speaker 1: assault on NATO very soon, especially with America's hands full
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  Speaker 1: in the Middle East and new reports of rapidly depleting
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  Speaker 1: stockpiles of US missiles. Also to think about what could
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  Speaker 1: an attack look like? Could Russia already be sending warning signals.
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  Speaker 1: Consider this the discovery of a drone carrying explosives at
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  Speaker 1: Leipzig Airport this week, now not yet directly linked to
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  Speaker 1: Moscow by authorities, but an incident that Germany's Interior minister
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  Speaker 1: said was being treated as part of a professional hybrid
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  Speaker 1: threat scenario, marking what he called quote a new level
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  Speaker 1: of danger for Germany. Russia's Berlin embassy has dismissed any involvement,
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  Speaker 1: calling it quote a contrived provocation, and in the last
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  Speaker 1: few weeks more warnings of the growing Russian threat on
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  Speaker 1: Native's eastern flank, which includes Poland and the Baltic States.
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  Speaker 2: We're talking about a limited scale, yet targeted kinetic strike corporation,
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  Speaker 2: very likely to be directed at critical infrastructure facilities. These
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  Speaker 2: could simply be various types of strike measure aimed at
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  Speaker 2: physically damaging critical infrastructure.
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  Speaker 3: Physics group and creating infras.
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  Speaker 4: Putin has a hard time selling his war activities to
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  Speaker 4: the society because they're all being hurt daily, their business,
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  Speaker 4: their travels, they're commuting, their day of life has changed
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  Speaker 4: forty percent effect on the gas petrol diesel availability. Thus,
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  Speaker 4: people are asking questions. He needs a quick win, so
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  Speaker 4: potential hybrid threat is more likely than it was before.
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  Speaker 4: So it's purely calculating what had happened.
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  Speaker 5: No, I would like to assure you that the intelligence
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  Speaker 5: is working going to be a gathering information and can
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  Speaker 5: see that Russia is considering possible provocations in the Baltic region,
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  Speaker 5: and that Russia is considering the possible use of false
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  Speaker 5: flag operations.
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  Speaker 3: Eh.
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  Speaker 1: Well, to unpack this latest report, I'm joined now by
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  Speaker 1: Daniel Hamilton. He's a senior fellow at the John Hopkins
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  Speaker 1: Seis Foreign Policy Institute and a fellow at the Brookings
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  Speaker 1: Institution in Washington. He has held numerous positions in the
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  Speaker 1: US Department of State and spent decades analyzing Transatlantic security,
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  Speaker 1: NATO strategy, European geopolitics, and the future of the US
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  Speaker 1: europe relationship. Daniel, it's good to have you with us.
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  Speaker 1: I'm sure you've seen this report by the Wall Street Journal.
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  Speaker 1: It claims that US intelligence now sees Vladimir Putin launching
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  Speaker 1: a limited attack of some type on a NATO country
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  Speaker 1: as soon as this fall, I mean that is next month.
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  Speaker 1: What did you think when you read this?
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  Speaker 3: Well, you know, I think the thinking has been since
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  Speaker 3: Putin invaded Ukraine in twenty twenty two. To go after
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  Speaker 3: NATO as well would be like overstretch, And I think
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  Speaker 3: the thinking had been since then. Putin has his hands
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  Speaker 3: full with Ukraine, so why would he alto try to
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  Speaker 3: extend it to NATO. But you know, things are changing
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  Speaker 3: for Russia. The war's not going very well. There's lots
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  Speaker 3: of attrition, there's grumbling back home, and the idea that
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  Speaker 3: you could divide the alliance and distract it might be
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  Speaker 3: something now that people think Putin might consider, But we
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  Speaker 3: have to keep in mind. You know, this is not
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  Speaker 3: really something new. Putin has been engaging a two front
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  Speaker 3: war since twenty twenty two, and maybe even before that.
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  Speaker 3: It was a conventional war against Ukraine, but really an
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  Speaker 3: unconventional war against the rest of Europe. You know, there
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  Speaker 3: was a cyber attack, Russian based cyber attack on Estonia
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  Speaker 3: in two thousand and seven. The Estonians chose to take
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  Speaker 3: care of it themselves rather than make it a NATO affair,
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  Speaker 3: which they could have done. There have been drones shot
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  Speaker 3: down over Romania, Russian drones that went in a NATO territory,
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  Speaker 3: Cruz Missil drones shot down in Poland as well, So
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  Speaker 3: the Russians have been probing already. The Leipzig case that
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  Speaker 3: you mentioned is another potential example of that. But I
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  Speaker 3: think the idea here now is Putin maybe a little
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  Speaker 3: desperate and he does not want to go down in
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  Speaker 3: history as the Russian leader who lost Ukraine. And if
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  Speaker 3: you know, the thinking could be, if he gets desperate,
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  Speaker 3: he might resort to some other types of tactics that
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  Speaker 3: one had sort of excluded before.
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  Speaker 1: You know, Daniel, For years, the assumption in Washington was
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  Speaker 1: that Putin would avoid direct confrontation with NATO while fighting
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  Speaker 1: in Ukraine. Now if US intelligence, if it's now revising
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  Speaker 1: that assessment, what does that tell us about how Putin's
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  Speaker 1: mindset may be changing.
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  Speaker 3: Well, as I say, NATO has to be prepared for
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  Speaker 3: the full range of possibilities, and it plans for those
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  Speaker 3: things all the time. You get intelligence assessments. But the
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  Speaker 3: alliances already you know, basing its planning on worst case scenarios,
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  Speaker 3: So they've been aware of these types of things for
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  Speaker 3: some time. But as I say, if Putin feels he's
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  Speaker 3: in a corner, he might reach out to different tactics.
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  Speaker 3: You know, the most extreme scenario would be a Russian
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  Speaker 3: land incursion of military forces across the NATO border. But
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  Speaker 3: for native you know, for Putin to do that, he'd
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  Speaker 3: have to move forces from where they are now, and
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  Speaker 3: NATO would detect that long before anything would happen, unless
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  Speaker 3: it would be just an air attack of some kind
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  Speaker 3: or something from from the sea. So I think that's
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  Speaker 3: less likely and would be detected. The sort of Little
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  Speaker 3: Green Men scenario where you know, masked or unidentified for
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  Speaker 3: people kind of show up somehow armed bands. What would
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  Speaker 3: that do. That's what Putin did in Ukraine in twenty
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  Speaker 3: fourteen in the Donbas region Ukraine. I think NATO is
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  Speaker 3: ready for that again, especially the Baltic states. They said
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  Speaker 3: they have a shoot on site order already. Anybody who
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  Speaker 3: shows up like that is just going to be shot.
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  Speaker 3: They're not fooling around. They've already told the Russians if
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  Speaker 3: anybody shows up like that, we are just going to
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  Speaker 3: assume it's you, and we're not going to allow you
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  Speaker 3: to deny it. And the internal security forces of those
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  Speaker 3: states are deeply in contact with NATO forces themselves, so
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  Speaker 3: both the domestic security services and the intelligence and the
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  Speaker 3: NATO real military forces are all focused on these contingencies.
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  Speaker 3: I think the real intent here would be to do
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  Speaker 3: something that divides the alliance. It's not to get some
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  Speaker 3: military victory, but to but fuddle the political decision makings
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  Speaker 3: within NATO and maybe cause some NATO allies to step
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  Speaker 3: back from their support, either for Ukraine or the alliance itself.
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  Speaker 3: That might be more what Putin might intend.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, intelligence officials, they reportedly are considering scenarios ranging from
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  Speaker 1: cyber attacks and sabotage to a limited ground incursion. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: is the real danger that Putin finds a way to
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  Speaker 1: stay below NATO's threshold for a massive military response.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, the little Green Men scenario would be the one,
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  Speaker 3: but I think they're prepared for that. The other is,
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  Speaker 3: you say, is some type of hybrid below the Article
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  Speaker 3: five you know, Mitchell defense clause of NATO scenario. But
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  Speaker 3: you know, Putin's already been probing, as they said, He's
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  Speaker 3: already been doing this. The cyber attacks are nothing new
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  Speaker 3: on NATO infrastructure. There are cyber assaults on NATO infrastructures
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  Speaker 3: every day, you know, thousands of them from all sorts
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  Speaker 3: of groups, including Russian groups. This is the daily happening.
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  Speaker 3: The drones and the cruise missiles that they essentially said
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  Speaker 3: we're targeted for Ukraine and happened to fly over, you know, mistakenly,
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  Speaker 3: but I think it's more probing. So Putin's been doing
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  Speaker 3: these probes for some time. And if you you know,
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  Speaker 3: want to be serious about this, we have to simply
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  Speaker 3: understand reality that Russian related groups have been infiltrating NATO
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  Speaker 3: territory for years. They implant cyber malware all through our infrastructure, dams,
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  Speaker 3: electrical facilities. It's already there, it's planted. These are ticking
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  Speaker 3: time bombs that could go off. You wouldn't even have
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  Speaker 3: to cross the border. They could just go off. And
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  Speaker 3: we're aware of these things, but I'm not sure the
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  Speaker 3: public is quite focused on the fact that these things happened.
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  Speaker 3: And it's not just Europe. You know, last week there
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  Speaker 3: were twelve US states targeted their water facilities by an
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  Speaker 3: Iranian linked groups claimed responsibility for that. Iranian groups have
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  Speaker 3: tried to blow up US dams in the past. We
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  Speaker 3: can readily assume Chinese malware is all through the US system. So,
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  Speaker 3: you know, this is the type of security situation your
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  Speaker 3: faces today, Whether Putin chooses to act, you know, with
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  Speaker 3: intent is one thing, but we have to be prepared
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  Speaker 3: for any type of scenario.
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  Speaker 1: Daniel, let me ask you. I think probably among the public,
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  Speaker 1: when they think of a possible attack, they certainly may
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  Speaker 1: think of the worst case scenario, and that is maybe
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  Speaker 1: tactical nuclear weapons that risk. How much do you think
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  Speaker 1: it is a part of the calculus in this new assessment.
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  Speaker 3: Well, I don't see. I didn't see that that scenario
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  Speaker 3: was part of the intel and assessment that you've mentioned.
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  Speaker 3: But NATO, you know, plans for all contingencies. If Putin
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  Speaker 3: would go nuclear, that would almost certainly provide for a
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  Speaker 3: NATO nuclear response, which is not something he wants to do.
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  Speaker 3: And I think that that would of course make the
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  Speaker 3: Ukraine thing just part of a larger war, which I
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  Speaker 3: don't think Putin is ready for. So I don't think
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  Speaker 3: that that's probably likely, although we have to be prepared
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  Speaker 3: for that. The other the other possibility, though, is that
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  Speaker 3: if Putin feels he's backed into a corner, if he
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  Speaker 3: feels the Ukraine wars not going so well, that some
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  Speaker 3: sort of limited demonstration effect is the Russian like to say,
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  Speaker 3: of a nuclear device, could could be something that the
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  Speaker 3: Ukrainians need to be very concerned about. He's threatened that
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  Speaker 3: a number of times, and that part of Russian military
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  Speaker 3: doctrine is if you're backed in a corner, you might
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  Speaker 3: preemptively use these weapons to sort of tell the adversary,
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  Speaker 3: you know, back off. You know what Russians called demonstration
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  Speaker 3: would be horrific. Of course, it would be unprecedented. The
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  Speaker 3: Chinese have even been nervous about this. They've told the
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  Speaker 3: Russians at least twice not to do it. So there's
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  Speaker 3: great pressure on Russia not to do this. But Againt
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  Speaker 3: Putin is very committed to his assault on Ukraine and
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  Speaker 3: he thinks of his place in history and not going
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  Speaker 3: down as the Russian leader that lost Ukraine. So one
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  Speaker 3: has to think about these scenarios. There would be huge spill.
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  Speaker 3: It would be a disaster for Ukraine, but there'd be
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  Speaker 3: spillover course across Europe, and one would have to think
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  Speaker 3: about its meaning in terms of nuclear use for global security.
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  Speaker 1: Would you say that the greatest vulnerability facing NATO today
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  Speaker 1: is it military weakness or is it political division?
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  Speaker 3: I think the idea that you can divide the alliance
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  Speaker 3: by some sort of limited scenario is the one we
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  Speaker 3: should focus on. There's not a military issue there. Russia
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  Speaker 3: is not going to challenge NATO militarily. It is far
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  Speaker 3: weaker than the you know, combined some of ally military capability.
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  Speaker 3: But Putin knows that, you know, not every NATO ally
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  Speaker 3: agrees with you know, the threat assessment. There are countries
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  Speaker 3: that are somewhat you know, sympathetic to Russia these days,
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  Speaker 3: that are in the Alliance, and so triggering a limited
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  Speaker 3: incursion that questions whether NATO solidarity is unified is something
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  Speaker 3: we should consider seriously, because I think that's the more
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  Speaker 3: likely scenario that would distract NATO and show divisions at
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  Speaker 3: a time when the Ukrainians, you know, need NATO unity
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  Speaker 3: to help them. And so I think that's more what
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  Speaker 3: we do, a full out Russian assault elsewhere, but of
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  Speaker 3: course free up Ukraine that didn't go after the Russians,
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  Speaker 3: So you know, it not necessarily makes sense that the
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  Speaker 3: Russians would engage in a sex at front of a
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  Speaker 3: war that they're already kind of losing right now.
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  Speaker 1: Daniel, how much does this assessment reflect concerns about the
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  Speaker 1: United States itself, not Russia getting stronger, but America becoming
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  Speaker 1: more distracted, more divided, and potentially less willing to carry
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  Speaker 1: the burden of European security. How much of a factor
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  Speaker 1: is do you think is in this assessible?
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  Speaker 3: Well, yeah, the Europeans are very concerned about that, of course.
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  Speaker 3: They the Trump administration at the anchor A summit and
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  Speaker 3: at NATO summit just some weeks ago, said they're conducting
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  Speaker 3: a forced posture review of US forces in Europe that
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  Speaker 3: should be done in six months. But the clear intent
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  Speaker 3: is that Europe should bear the brunt of the conventional
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  Speaker 3: defense of Europe while the US tends to you know,
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  Speaker 3: think elsewhere because it's we are so strapped about different contingencies.
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  Speaker 3: The question is whether the US include to Torrent would hold.
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  Speaker 3: I think every reason tells me it would, even if
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  Speaker 3: Europeans need to step up on conventional defense. But it's
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  Speaker 3: the political element again, you know, well, the US actually
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  Speaker 3: be there politically for the Europeans and the solidarity of
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  Speaker 3: NATO remained. That's I think the question in European minds
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  Speaker 3: whether you can count on the United States in the end.
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  Speaker 3: You know, the mutual defense clause of NATO is a
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  Speaker 3: matter of trust. It's a basic you trust each other
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  Speaker 3: because there's nothing forcing, there's nothing automatic about what NATO
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  Speaker 3: allies have said they will do to help each other.
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  Speaker 3: It really depends on the circumstance. And if you have
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  Speaker 3: to really trust each other to really invest, you know
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  Speaker 3: you're committing your entire security to other countries. And so
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  Speaker 3: if you think of European history, you know this is
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  Speaker 3: something you take very seriously. So I think the fact
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  Speaker 3: that the US is maybe seen now as maybe not trustworthy,
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  Speaker 3: not an ally, that's the question. On the other hand,
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  Speaker 3: if we take with the scenarios you just mentioned the
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  Speaker 3: Baltic States, you know, they're up to two thousand US
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  Speaker 3: troops in the Baltic States, there are ten thousand of
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  Speaker 3: them in Poland, there's another thousand in Romania. Where these
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  Speaker 3: scenarios might happen, would not just mean an invasion of
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  Speaker 3: those countries. It would affect and directly maybe target US
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  Speaker 3: military personnel. That's what's called the trip wire. You know,
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  Speaker 3: the US is so committed its own people are in
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  Speaker 3: an harms way, and that still is the case. So
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  Speaker 3: I would think something that would affect the US military
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  Speaker 3: personnel directly would, of course, in my view, still engage
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  Speaker 3: the US and European security and its defense even with
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  Speaker 3: the current administration.
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  Speaker 1: Daniel Hamilton, Daniel, good having you with us. Excellent analysis too,
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  Speaker 1: There's so much to unpack you. We appreciate your time
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  Speaker 1: and your insights. Thank you, good to be with you.
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  Speaker 3: Thank you so much.
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  Speaker 1: So, what do you think? How likely is a Russian attack,
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  Speaker 1: be it hybrid, cyber, or conventional, on NATO territory here
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  Speaker 1: in Europe. New US Intel warns it could happen as
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  Speaker 1: early as this fall, as late as twenty twenty nine.
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  Speaker 1: Are we running out of time? Send us your thoughts
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  Speaker 1: in the comments section, join the discussion, and until next
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  Speaker 1: time for all of us here in Berlin, thanks for watching.