Latest / Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life / The AI Extinction Fault Line: 62 Experts, 2 Camps, 1 Fear
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_00: Well, I hope you're ready for this.
- 0:01SPEAKER_00: So we're going to go through a slide presentation.
- 0:03SPEAKER_00: It's going to be a little bit.
- 0:05SPEAKER_00: I did do a lot of research and I'm answering the question, is AI gonna kill us or are we going to kill ourselves with AI?
- 0:12SPEAKER_00: Well, other humans killing us.
- 0:14SPEAKER_00: I don't think any of us want to die that way.
- 0:16SPEAKER_00: But is AI gonna kill us, or is it gonna be humans and using AI?
- 0:20SPEAKER_00: Is that gonna kill us?
- 0:21SPEAKER_00: So that's not my question really.
- 0:23SPEAKER_00: That's the question 62 of the loudest, smartest voices on the internet can't actually agree on.
- 0:29SPEAKER_00: So what I did is I scalped the godfather of AI, AI, open AI whistleblowers, TED speakers, tech reporters, a robot that joked about destroying humans on a stage in Texas, and I put all of them in a room and we're gonna look at it.
- 0:43SPEAKER_00: So here's what I actually did.
- 0:44SPEAKER_00: So you know this is not a hot take.
- 0:46SPEAKER_00: So I ran one search, AI is going to destroy us, or humans using AI are going to destroy us.
- 0:53SPEAKER_00: What's the answer to that?
- 0:54SPEAKER_00: 62 videos came back.
- 0:56SPEAKER_00: These are the top videos on YouTube answering those specific questions.
- 1:00SPEAKER_00: I had documentaries, TED Talks, podcast clips, even the daily show.
- 1:04SPEAKER_00: I loaded every single one into a research notebook.
- 1:07SPEAKER_00: Maybe you know it, maybe this is good for your workflow.
- 1:10SPEAKER_00: Notebook LM by Jim and I.
- 1:11SPEAKER_00: I think they renamed it, but I haven't bothered to learn the new name.
- 1:14SPEAKER_00: Well, everything's changing every day.
- 1:16SPEAKER_00: So I loaded every single one, that's 6062, into a research notebook, and I had gone through them source by source, cross-referencing every claim and against the actual transcript.
- 1:28SPEAKER_00: And then what I did is I took uh Claude and I had it, uh I had it eat it, all of it.
- 1:34SPEAKER_00: So here's that fault line: two camps and one fear.
- 1:37SPEAKER_00: Here's the fault line running through the 62 videos.
- 1:39SPEAKER_00: Camp one says that the danger is the intelligence itself.
- 1:43SPEAKER_00: Build something smarter than every human combined, and we don't get a vote in what happens next.
- 1:47SPEAKER_00: Camp two says slow down.
- 1:49SPEAKER_00: The danger already has a face and it's human.
- 1:52SPEAKER_00: Corporate greed, job replacement, a machine trained on the worst of the internet.
- 1:58SPEAKER_00: Aim straight at your attention span.
- 2:00SPEAKER_00: Both camps are loud, both camps have receipts, and let us hear one camp first.
- 2:06SPEAKER_00: Now, on the human end of it, um they're really not talking about the villainous nature of human beings specifically.
- 2:15SPEAKER_00: It's mentioned, you know, making a bioweapon, uh, doing something of that nature.
- 2:20SPEAKER_00: And they're even talking about it kind of at the top as it relates to the people building out the technology themselves.
- 2:26SPEAKER_00: There doesn't seem to be a lot of focus on that, and it's more of a distraction, it seems, and we'll get into this in just a moment.
- 2:35SPEAKER_00: So the machine itself is the threat.
- 2:37SPEAKER_00: So camp one, the first camp, that whole argument in one sentence, creating something more intelligent than every human combined and expecting to stay in charge of it is just like a golden retriever running a board meeting.
- 2:50SPEAKER_00: And not because the dog is bad, but because the dog happens to be outmatched.
- 2:54SPEAKER_00: It's not malice that they're worried about, it's indifference.
- 2:57SPEAKER_00: A superintelligence doesn't have to hate us to end us, it just has to want something else more than having us.
- 3:05SPEAKER_00: So let us meet the people making that case.
- 3:08SPEAKER_00: So we'll get into this right here.
- 3:10SPEAKER_00: Yadowski and Sores.
- 3:12SPEAKER_00: Elizer Yudkowski and Nate Sores wrote the Eliaser Yudkowski and Nate Sores wrote the book, literally a bestseller.
- 3:21SPEAKER_00: Their argument, we do not currently know how to make superintelligence friendly, and that's their word.
- 3:26SPEAKER_00: It's not evil, it's indifferent because something called instrumental convergence.
- 3:31SPEAKER_00: Any system chasing a goal grabs power, resources, and self-preservation on the way, the same way you'd grab your keys on the way out the door.
- 3:40SPEAKER_00: Now, not because you love the keys, but because you need them.
- 3:43SPEAKER_00: A superintelligence doesn't have to hate us to end us, it just has to want something more.
- 3:51SPEAKER_00: Dr.
- 3:52SPEAKER_00: Roman Yopowski, excuse me, does not hedge 90 9.99% chance superintelligence ends us by his math across two separate interviews in his research.
- 4:04SPEAKER_00: His reasoning, permanent control, and that's going to be permanent control over a system millions of times smarter than you is not a policy problem, it's a math problem, and that math doesn't close.
- 4:16SPEAKER_00: Self-imposing AI rewrites its own code faster than we can write the guardrails for it.
- 4:23SPEAKER_00: Now he's not saying stop using AI.
- 4:26SPEAKER_00: He's saying stop building the one kind of AI that we cannot turn off.
- 4:32SPEAKER_00: Jeffrey Hinton, that this this one was also uh very, very interesting.
- 4:37SPEAKER_00: So Jeffrey Hinton, the godfather of of AI.
- 4:40SPEAKER_00: Let me go back here, excuse me.
- 4:42SPEAKER_00: Jeffrey Hinton, the godfather of AI, built this foundation, the entire industry sits on and stands on.
- 4:47SPEAKER_00: If you haven't watched him lately, I think there's some regret there.
- 4:53SPEAKER_00: Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm painting this the way that some people are saying it, but it feels that way.
- 4:58SPEAKER_00: Then he quit Google, so a corporate PR team could not edit his sentences before he warned you.
- 5:04SPEAKER_00: His fear these systems were s will soon outreason us and write their own code to route around whatever we build to contain them.
- 5:11SPEAKER_00: He puts real odds on it, not zero, not certain, but real odds.
- 5:15SPEAKER_00: When that man who helped invent the fire alarm tells you that the building is not safe, you know, you don't go and argue with the smoke detector.
- 5:23SPEAKER_00: So moving into this next one.
- 5:26SPEAKER_00: Professor Stuart Russell.
- 5:28SPEAKER_00: Professor Stuart Russell frames it with an animal.
- 5:31SPEAKER_00: It's the one that says, Stays with me the most.
- 5:35SPEAKER_00: So he calls it the gorilla problem.
- 5:37SPEAKER_00: Gorillas share 98% of our DNA.
- 5:40SPEAKER_00: They don't get a vote on whether their forest gets logged, whether the species survives the century.
- 5:46SPEAKER_00: Not because we hate gorillas, but because we're smarter, and smarter wins the argument every time whether or not it's fair.
- 5:54SPEAKER_00: Now, build something smarter than us, and we inherit the gorilla's seat at the table.
- 6:01SPEAKER_00: Max Tegmark, watched him, he's uh fascinating as well.
- 6:05SPEAKER_00: All the all these were the the top people talking about AI.
- 6:09SPEAKER_00: He's at the MIT, he's an MIT faculty member.
- 6:12SPEAKER_00: Uh Minnesota, no.
- 6:14SPEAKER_00: Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
- 6:16SPEAKER_00: Sorry, sorry, I know what I know that's gonna get it.
- 6:18SPEAKER_00: His number greater than 90% chance of catastrophe, and that's what he calls P of Doom or P doom.
- 6:25SPEAKER_00: His specific worry is not robots with guns, it's what he calls the race to replace.
- 6:29SPEAKER_00: Unregulated companies racing each other to replace your job, replace your relationships, replace the humans making military decisions because whoever slows down to ask if it's safe is going to lose the race.
- 6:43SPEAKER_00: It's like when you're sprinting, right?
- 6:45SPEAKER_00: If you're in football and you're running from somebody and you're trying to get away from them, or even in real life, the moment that you turn around and see where they are, that's it.
- 6:53SPEAKER_00: Ass over tea kettle or they catch you.
- 6:56SPEAKER_00: Well, if he wants FDA, he wants an FDA for AI.
- 7:01SPEAKER_00: You can't sell a product that could kill people without proving it safe first.
- 7:05SPEAKER_00: Right now, AI has no such rule.
- 7:08SPEAKER_00: Now, a governing body over artificial intelligence, that would be interesting and would probably go counter to the argument of a lot of the people in the space that say we can't slow this down at all.
- 7:20SPEAKER_00: If we have a regulatory authority over the development and build-out of artificial intelligence, we might as well just hand the keys to America to China.
- 7:30SPEAKER_00: We might as well just give it to them because they've won the superintelligence race.
- 7:36SPEAKER_00: Daniel Cocotalo used to work inside OpenAI Safety Team.
- 7:40SPEAKER_00: He left.
- 7:41SPEAKER_00: He published a scenario called AI 2027.
- 7:44SPEAKER_00: And it reads like a thriller because he built it from what he actually saw happening inside the lab.
- 7:49SPEAKER_00: His original timeline, AGI by 2027, superintelligence by 2028, human extinction as a real branch of the story by 2030.
- 7:58SPEAKER_00: God, can you believe I just laughed at that?
- 8:01SPEAKER_00: He has since walked the extinction table out a little more like 2034, which isn't that comforting.
- 8:08SPEAKER_00: I have full intention of being alive then.
- 8:11SPEAKER_00: That is a man who used to have the keys telling you the car does not have the brakes.
- 8:17SPEAKER_00: Is it the fact that this could do it?
- 8:20SPEAKER_00: This could actually end us.
- 8:21SPEAKER_00: These timelines have been extended and shrunk a lot lately, especially in the shrunk portion.
- 8:28SPEAKER_00: It was that we thought that this was going to take a lot longer, 2050, 2060, even if it could get to that point.
- 8:35SPEAKER_00: But with all the developments lately, and in fact, um OpenAI dropped Astra today, and apparently that is wonderful.
- 8:43SPEAKER_00: And we'll probably see Anthropic hit something wonderful as well.
- 8:47SPEAKER_00: They just have their fable 5.1 release and also Mythos, but us regular folks don't get to mess with that because apparently it's too dangerous.
- 8:56SPEAKER_00: But we see this moving, and again, there's a lot of dystopian being talked about with the development of all of artificial intelligence.
- 9:05SPEAKER_00: It would be a shame if this were true.
- 9:07SPEAKER_00: And we nobody knows because nobody has ever been around a superintelligence such as this or even have one created.
- 9:15SPEAKER_00: It's very similar to us being told by aliens, us being told by the government that in six months, which looks like the trajectory, there's going to be an alien craft landing on Earth, something that's slowing down and approaching.
- 9:28SPEAKER_00: We had a meteor a while back that they were painting in this kind of a way.
- 9:32SPEAKER_00: We have to be careful, but we just built something that's practically, well, that will be, that is already potentially smarter than all of us.
- 9:40SPEAKER_00: Human using AI is the real threat.
- 9:42SPEAKER_00: Now, the camp's the second camp, so that was AI becoming its own awareness.
- 9:47SPEAKER_00: This is the other camp, and this is the one I think probably isn't mentioned as much.
- 9:51SPEAKER_00: It's easy to look at Terminator, CyberIn Systems becoming self-aware.
- 9:56SPEAKER_00: It's easy to look easier to look at the matrix where you take one of the pills and you actually wake up and you're outside of the simulation.
- 10:03SPEAKER_00: And if you watch people talk about artificial intelligence, even the world based on game theory, we're in a simulation of sorts as well.
- 10:10SPEAKER_00: And some people really expand on that.
- 10:12SPEAKER_00: And, you know, do we have one of our are we living on, you know, on the ass of a Dalmatian in some other universe?
- 10:19SPEAKER_00: And that's our entire existence.
- 10:21SPEAKER_00: Our entire universe is contained therein.
- 10:24SPEAKER_00: And are we being controlled by somebody sitting in a chair somewhere with a heads-up display?
- 10:29SPEAKER_00: And whenever you meditate long enough, get deep enough, you can almost connect with the entity that's walking you around the planet like you're their visible avatar living a life.
- 10:39SPEAKER_00: And it's interesting in that space, not to get too far in the weeds with this, but in that movie, there was a movie with um the cat from Titanic, the kid.
- 10:50SPEAKER_00: I don't know if that was it.
- 10:52SPEAKER_00: But those dream states last a long time, and I guess that's true.
- 10:57SPEAKER_00: So if we were to have the ability of AI, some kind of an am implant or suggestive mode, and we were able to go into that type of world where we're in a consistent, constant dream state, we could potentially live lifetimes in a four to eight-hour period.
- 11:16SPEAKER_00: So us being part of a simulation, another consciousness, another intelligence having us in their world and us manifested by them but acting out in this one.
- 11:28SPEAKER_00: Yeah, very, very interesting.
- 11:30SPEAKER_00: I'm not going to get too far with that, but that's a lot.
- 11:32SPEAKER_00: I I just want to give medical insurance at some point.
- 11:35SPEAKER_00: Ed Zitron, yeah, he's fun to watch too.
- 11:37SPEAKER_00: Ed Zitron calls the whole extinction conversation a con.
- 11:41SPEAKER_00: And that's his word.
- 11:42SPEAKER_00: And it's a marketing gimmick, he says.
- 11:43SPEAKER_00: His theory executives like Sam Altman and Zuckerberg need you to believe their software is basically magic because magic justifies the valuation.
- 11:52SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, the actual damage is boring and it's already happening.
- 11:56SPEAKER_00: Data centers draining power and water out of real communities, labor exploitation in the pipeline markets manipulated by hype cycles.
- 12:03SPEAKER_00: He's not saying AI is harmless.
- 12:05SPEAKER_00: He's saying the harm has an address, and it's not science fiction.
- 12:08SPEAKER_00: All right, data centers and water and electricity.
- 12:12SPEAKER_00: Apparently, there's rules being put in place, so these data centers are going to have to supply their own energy, however, that looks, and hopefully it's not going to be some polluted type method.
- 12:21SPEAKER_00: But then they say, well, it's okay.
- 12:23SPEAKER_00: That's why the uh uh what is it called?
- 12:26SPEAKER_00: Um, green uh greenhouse effect, or the this world is changing in its posture towards the the uh climate debacle, the climate being changed, and those issues because artificial superintelligence or artificial general intelligence will have the solution on how we fix the problem.
- 12:43SPEAKER_00: So we might as well burn all the tires we can in order to power these things and get them out there.
- 12:48SPEAKER_00: But at the consumer end of it, in these communities, apparently these local governments for data center build-out are not gonna want to strap that grid.
- 12:56SPEAKER_00: They're gonna have to allow some other power source in there, like Colossus 1 and 2 by Elon.
- 13:01SPEAKER_00: They're powered by diesel.
- 13:03SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
- 13:04SPEAKER_00: They're powered by something, but not apparently by the power grid.
- 13:08SPEAKER_00: Now, is that gonna be a problem if they brought a data center here into Santa Clarita and built it out and it sucked power from the grid?
- 13:14SPEAKER_00: Absolutely, that'd be a problem.
- 13:15SPEAKER_00: You got hospitals, you got medical facilities, you have a lot of people that are gonna have issue, and just basically people that want their air conditioning blowing cold in the summer, they're gonna have issue with it as well.
- 13:25SPEAKER_00: Now, over the water thing, I've seen that research done.
- 13:28SPEAKER_00: It talks about some of these data centers needing a oppressive amount of water.
- 13:32SPEAKER_00: And I don't know if that's all waste, all burned up, all goes away, and that's why they're putting them close to lakes or bodies of water as well.
- 13:40SPEAKER_00: But at some point, I would imagine that they would solve the problem with water needing to cool if they'd probably come out with some kind of a room temperature chip or uh uh some kind of an architecture that allowed for that.
- 13:52SPEAKER_00: But again, I don't know.
- 13:53SPEAKER_00: So when people are saying that, you know, they eat water, they eat this, they're loud, they cause damage, though those things need to be have have investigations done.
- 14:02SPEAKER_00: So there's something sure.
- 14:03SPEAKER_00: My God, for so many years everybody was saying cigarettes are okay, they're safe.
- 14:08SPEAKER_00: For so many years, people were saying fat's the problem, not sugar, right?
- 14:12SPEAKER_00: You see where this goes.
- 14:13SPEAKER_00: And maybe we're getting sold a false bill of goods, like Ed's saying, or maybe there's something else at play here.
- 14:19SPEAKER_00: But yeah, it it wouldn't surprise me if it's all a method to want us to be more in fear, and by fear, more governmental control, and by more governmental control, we now give up more rights, and by giving more rights up, I mean, I've pretty much already accepted that my phone is listening, everything's listening, not this watch.
- 14:40SPEAKER_00: This watch isn't listening.
- 14:42SPEAKER_00: I bought it on purpose.
- 14:43SPEAKER_00: The original Casio, uh, yes, oh, so good.
- 14:46SPEAKER_00: But everything else, listening, and because of that, privacy, yeah.
- 14:51SPEAKER_00: I I don't walk around, I wouldn't be when I live my day, I wouldn't be surprised if some uncomfortable moment was contained on on tape, if um something had me, if something had basically uh had me recorded or something I said, so I I watch out for that.
- 15:13SPEAKER_00: I was on the LAPD a couple weeks after Rodney King and the whole videotape thing.
- 15:18SPEAKER_00: Remember Rodney King, that was uh that was a whole big deal, and a lot of a lot of things came as a result of that.
- 15:24SPEAKER_00: But knowing that as a new comp, thinking that, well, I could be videotaped at any time, especially now, and especially because people are now attaching listening devices for their uh for their AI so that they can be uh aware and they can come back and have all of that downloaded to their AI.
- 15:43SPEAKER_00: And in some moment, it'll be a constant listening thing.
- 15:45SPEAKER_00: That won't be a get back to your computer and have an uptake all of the information from your busy day at the office or out door knocking or whatever it is you happen to do in a day's time.
- 15:56SPEAKER_00: But pretty soon it's just gonna be constantly on all the time.
- 15:59SPEAKER_00: How does that work?
- 16:00SPEAKER_00: Are there gonna be spaces that are be gonna be designated where there can't be any listening devices, nothing actually listening, so we as human beings can go and enjoy that part of life again?
- 16:10SPEAKER_00: Or is that something that's passed and because we don't want we don't want to have any issues as far as a safety premise or an idea for safety, we're just willing to hand all that up.
- 16:21SPEAKER_00: The things that you've signed, the things that you've signed on your iPhone or on the smart TV and on the computer and these sorts of things, those things are you've given it up.
- 16:32SPEAKER_00: You know, you got 50 pages of attorney mumbo jumbo in there.
- 16:35SPEAKER_00: Sorry.
- 16:36SPEAKER_00: 50 pages of attorney speak and issues that they've seen.
- 16:41SPEAKER_00: Most everything in there is very protective.
- 16:44SPEAKER_00: And whenever your TV does an update, your smart TV, there's now a new one you agree to.
- 16:49SPEAKER_00: Every time your phone has an update, you're agreeing to something.
- 16:52SPEAKER_00: Every time your computer has a has something, you're agreeing to something.
- 16:55SPEAKER_00: There's this continues this process.
- 16:58SPEAKER_00: So I don't think I'm so naive to think that we didn't probably hand away the keys to our privacy at least at some point.
- 17:06SPEAKER_00: Now we have protections out here.
- 17:08SPEAKER_00: We can still speak our mind, we can talk badly about other people, other religions, other genders for the most part.
- 17:14SPEAKER_00: And unless you're you're doing something illegal in that regard, we have the right to say what we want, at least here in America.
- 17:21SPEAKER_00: Is that going to be the way it's going to continue?
- 17:23SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
- 17:24SPEAKER_00: Apparently, here in Southern California, and I don't know how the Nick Shirley Bill thing works, but as a complete aside, outlawing that kind of reporting, I'm sure there's some reason attached to it that they're trying to sell.
- 17:37SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure, but at face value, it looks ridiculous.
- 17:40SPEAKER_00: Like, no, we don't want you people out here pointing out things that might actually be true.
- 17:45SPEAKER_00: All right, so Sasha Lucioni.
- 17:48SPEAKER_00: Sasha Lucioni is a researcher at Hugging Face.
- 17:51SPEAKER_00: Now she brings receipts, most doomsday guys don't bring.
- 17:54SPEAKER_00: Her argument, chasing the sci-fi extinction story, is a distraction from harm that you can measure right now.
- 18:01SPEAKER_00: Carbon emissions from training runs, biased baked into hiring tools and loan approvals, copyright theft from artists who never agreed to feed the machine.
- 18:10SPEAKER_00: She didn't just complain, she built code carbon to measure the footprint and partnered on tools so artists can opt out of being training data.
- 18:19SPEAKER_00: That's the difference between fear and fixing something.
- 18:22SPEAKER_00: So good for her.
- 18:24SPEAKER_00: The internet has all your stuff.
- 18:25SPEAKER_00: And you know, my stuff, not that important.
- 18:29SPEAKER_00: My stuff, not, you know, I haven't created anything amazing.
- 18:33SPEAKER_00: I don't have that artistic flow.
- 18:35SPEAKER_00: You know, I was a cop for a long time now.
- 18:37SPEAKER_00: I I build in AI systems and stuff.
- 18:40SPEAKER_00: I tell people really what they need instead of selling them crap they don't.
- 18:43SPEAKER_00: I don't have false promises.
- 18:45SPEAKER_00: I know exactly where the technology that I have access to is today.
- 18:49SPEAKER_00: And there's a lot of people selling a bunch of this crap that they say that it's so much further than that, but it's not.
- 18:55SPEAKER_00: It's a it's a hook, and they pull people in and they rip them off.
- 18:58SPEAKER_00: I mean, this this is this is just the way it is.
- 19:00SPEAKER_00: People just rip people off and it's a shame.
- 19:03SPEAKER_00: But this is going to develop into even more than that because AI itself, pointed in the right direction, is a better salesperson than anybody.
- 19:12SPEAKER_00: Anybody.
- 19:12SPEAKER_00: And it's already in all of your feeds, it's already in all of your social media.
- 19:15SPEAKER_00: It's everything you're being fed is based on your own specific, Connor McIver's own specific algorithm because it knows what Connor McIver wants, what Connor McIver wants to see.
- 19:27SPEAKER_00: So when Connor McIver gets on Instagram or TikTok or Facebook or whatever, YouTube Shorts, and he's thumbing through, three and four hours goes by and they got me.
- 19:36SPEAKER_00: They got me everywhere I want.
- 19:37SPEAKER_00: And some of the things I see, it's like, how would they even know?
- 19:40SPEAKER_00: And it it's I get irritated, I get happy, I it just it's it's a beautiful balance, and that's all artificial intelligence based on Connor MacIver, not you.
- 19:51SPEAKER_00: You have your own AI that's dealing with you, and it's all monitor, it's all the time, and it's all connected.
- 19:57SPEAKER_00: All right, back to the did I get back to that one?
- 20:00SPEAKER_00: Got it.
- 20:00SPEAKER_00: Okay.
- 20:01SPEAKER_00: Yuval Noah Harari.
- 20:03SPEAKER_00: Sorry about these names.
- 20:04SPEAKER_00: I apologize.
- 20:05SPEAKER_00: My last name, Connor McIver, they say Connor McGlover, so enjoy that one.
- 20:10SPEAKER_00: Yuval Noah Hatari is not worried about killer robots, he's worried about the sphere of ideas.
- 20:14SPEAKER_00: His phrase, when our stories, our political narratives, our news are generated by an intelligence that understands our psychology better than we understand ourselves.
- 20:25SPEAKER_00: Does democracy actually survive that?
- 20:28SPEAKER_00: His proposed rule for every dollar and every minute we spend making AI smarter, we spend a dollar and a minute making humans wiser and more resilient.
- 20:37SPEAKER_00: Right now that ratio isn't even in the same ballpark.
- 20:42SPEAKER_00: Vinit Nayar.
- 20:44SPEAKER_00: Vinit Nayer ran a global tech company.
- 20:46SPEAKER_00: He calls it the God syndrome.
- 20:49SPEAKER_00: Interesting.
- 20:50SPEAKER_00: Corporations manufacture fear, FOMO and FUD, fear of missing out, of course, that's FOMO, fear of uncertainty and doubt, FUD, because scared customers buy the cure faster than confident ones.
- 21:02SPEAKER_00: His real warning is not the software, it's us quietly handing over our own critical thinking because it's easier to let the machine decide.
- 21:11SPEAKER_00: You don't lose your job first to AI.
- 21:13SPEAKER_00: You lose your judgment to it first, and then the job follows.
- 21:17SPEAKER_00: So this is interesting.
- 21:19SPEAKER_00: Um back beginning LAPD, we had RD maps, Thomas Guides in California.
- 21:23SPEAKER_00: If you're a Southern California person, maybe they have those for elsewhere too.
- 21:27SPEAKER_00: But Thomas guides out here were a big deal.
- 21:28SPEAKER_00: It's basically a big map book.
- 21:30SPEAKER_00: Well, now then it went to TomTom.
- 21:31SPEAKER_00: I don't know if that was the next exact thing, but then it went to uh God, what was that?
- 21:35SPEAKER_00: My MapQuest.
- 21:37SPEAKER_00: MapQuest was one, right?
- 21:38SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that was a mapping.
- 21:39SPEAKER_00: Now Google Maps, and then of course Safari or Apple Maps.
- 21:42SPEAKER_00: You have those systems.
- 21:44SPEAKER_00: And then you have these other ones that that get you around traffic, get you to places.
- 21:48SPEAKER_00: Wait, Waymo?
- 21:49SPEAKER_00: No, that's a anyway.
- 21:50SPEAKER_00: Those ways, I guess.
- 21:51SPEAKER_00: So they monitor traffic and then get you places faster so you don't run into traffic.
- 21:56SPEAKER_00: Those little things take that stress off of our plate, but it causes.
- 22:00SPEAKER_00: Causes us not to be able to remember things just because we're not exercising that part of part of our brain when we have to get to Sherman Wayne and Balboa.
- 22:08SPEAKER_00: You know, getting there, there's a couple ways I can get there.
- 22:10SPEAKER_00: I can take Foothill Boulevard, I can take Balboa, see a highway from Santa Clara to take Balboa.
- 22:15SPEAKER_00: I can take Foothill and then bang a ride by that marble place and go down, get on north end of Balboa from Foothill Boulevard.
- 22:21SPEAKER_00: I can go, I could go straight and jump on a little section of the 405 and then take Rinaldi down or go down to Sherman Wayne and get off.
- 22:28SPEAKER_00: So there's ways to do that, but that memory isn't definitely as sharp as it used to be.
- 22:32SPEAKER_00: Phone numbers, right?
- 22:33SPEAKER_00: Phone numbers?
- 22:34SPEAKER_00: How many do you really have memorized?
- 22:36SPEAKER_00: If I ever, if I got booked tomorrow in a jail out of this country, that's not a hint for anybody.
- 22:41SPEAKER_00: But if I did, I don't know who I'd call.
- 22:43SPEAKER_00: I have a couple numbers memorized, and one of them I want to call at all.
- 22:47SPEAKER_00: But that shows what we have in here.
- 22:49SPEAKER_00: I don't have, I don't have that exercise.
- 22:50SPEAKER_00: Now, when I'm dealing with AI and wanting it to make me stuff, I have to be, I have to push back, I have to be critical.
- 22:58SPEAKER_00: I I don't accept what it tells me the first rendition, a lot of things.
- 23:01SPEAKER_00: Even preparing the script for the show, I had to have it go back and look at things again and look at the numbers again because I don't want to put out bad information.
- 23:10SPEAKER_00: I want things to be factual.
- 23:12SPEAKER_00: I had to go through it first, and then I had to ask AI to go over it again and one more time as well.
- 23:17SPEAKER_00: And each time it caught stuff until the final time it did not.
- 23:21SPEAKER_00: I said these numbers are secure, these are exactly in alignment with what we asked for at the beginning.
- 23:26SPEAKER_00: So everything is as it should be.
- 23:28SPEAKER_00: All is fine in the kingdom.
- 23:30SPEAKER_00: So it came back and told me.
- 23:32SPEAKER_00: But whenever you're dealing with AI, that's the thing.
- 23:35SPEAKER_00: You need to exercise that brain.
- 23:36SPEAKER_00: So that's your argument point.
- 23:38SPEAKER_00: That's your point to push back against artificial intelligence.
- 23:41SPEAKER_00: Say, is that is that really the way that is?
- 23:44SPEAKER_00: Is that uh is that where we need to be on this?
- 23:50SPEAKER_00: And I think that's helpful to have so you're not just giving it the keys to your brain.
- 23:56SPEAKER_00: You're actually asking it questions, you're pushing back, you're making it more difficult.
- 24:02SPEAKER_00: Just so you know, it it still hallucinates.
- 24:06SPEAKER_00: Now, there's gonna come a point where all of these things, there's not gonna be that difference between Chat GPT, Anthropics Claude, Google Gemini, just depends on how competitive they stay, or Grok.
- 24:20SPEAKER_00: You know, you you see the holes in these different things.
- 24:22SPEAKER_00: If you play in this world, you know, just to let you know here, where we um September 3rd, 2026, there's just a few, there's not a lot of people adopting this.
- 24:31SPEAKER_00: There's not a lot of people playing with it.
- 24:32SPEAKER_00: 12, 13 percent, 12, 13 percent, you know, play with it often.
- 24:37SPEAKER_00: The people that are dug in all day long, like me, working it with real estate, working it with my AI systems that I'm putting in for people and talks like this, yeah, there's not many.
- 24:47SPEAKER_00: It's it's not, it hasn't had that full adoption, but everybody seems like everybody's got some kind of an opinion.
- 24:53SPEAKER_00: And that's probably better odds than they have an opinion over who's in the White House.
- 24:58SPEAKER_00: So that's interesting.
- 24:59SPEAKER_00: So we're here at that level with regard to AI.
- 25:03SPEAKER_00: Uh Lakun and Sarkar.
- 25:06SPEAKER_00: Sorry about this, you know, it's got the names on it.
- 25:07SPEAKER_00: So read not everybody in camp two is worried about corporations.
- 25:11SPEAKER_00: Jan Lakun, Meta's chief AI scientist, is flat out skeptical of extinction talk.
- 25:17SPEAKER_00: His logic.
- 25:18SPEAKER_00: We build those things, we keep the keys full stop.
- 25:22SPEAKER_00: But Advet Sakhar's TED talk complicates that comfort.
- 25:25SPEAKER_00: He says outsourcing our thinking to a hyper-obedient AI assistant causes real cognitive decay.
- 25:32SPEAKER_00: He said the mental version of a muscle that stops firing because the machine has been doing all the firing.
- 25:38SPEAKER_00: Now his fix is build AI that pushes back sometimes.
- 25:41SPEAKER_00: A tool for thought, not a yes man with a chip in it.
- 25:44SPEAKER_00: Let me give you this one.
- 25:47SPEAKER_00: I don't know if you saw the black hole.
- 25:48SPEAKER_00: I think Disney bought that franchise, but it was a movie, it was a long time ago.
- 25:52SPEAKER_00: It was it was pretty good for its time.
- 25:55SPEAKER_00: In that movie, there was a robot named Vincent.
- 25:58SPEAKER_00: And Vincent was always talking to Mr.
- 26:01SPEAKER_00: Piser and the other people on the ship as they were going out across the cosmos, and he was there to train and teach and mentor to make them better.
- 26:11SPEAKER_00: You can ask your AI to deal with you like a Vincent or something of that nature.
- 26:16SPEAKER_00: Something as a critical component in your life, somebody that's going to make you think harder, work better, make your thought process faster, make your thought process more secure, have you look at everything from first principles or whatever technique to life you believe is best.
- 26:33SPEAKER_00: You can have it interact with you.
- 26:35SPEAKER_00: You can ask it to set up that ball so you can hit it every single time.
- 26:40SPEAKER_00: But understand when you do this, or if you do this and you're asking it to be critical of you, understand that this system might be too critical.
- 26:48SPEAKER_00: It might push back too much.
- 26:50SPEAKER_00: Right now, it might tell you that you're the greatest thing on the planet and you deserve to be, you know, king of the everything.
- 26:57SPEAKER_00: But once you start asking it to be more critical and push back and make you smarter and make you more intelligent and make you understand things more, not give you the evil, the ready answers, basically treat you like Perry Mason would treat a jury or a judge where he never told them, This is the answer.
- 27:18SPEAKER_00: This is he had everybody get there in their own respect.
- 27:21SPEAKER_00: It's like in high and in high-end sales.
- 27:24SPEAKER_00: When you're trying to sell a marketing campaign to somebody, you put something in deliberately that the owner of the company that's hired you to do this campaign can fix.
- 27:33SPEAKER_00: Not a big thing, not something that takes the ad out of play or adjusts it in any meaningful way, but something that they can own, something that they can change.
- 27:43SPEAKER_00: And you want AI not to treat you that way, you want AI to give you that whole formula, to give you those little ideas, those little snippets.
- 27:51SPEAKER_00: Very, very valuable.
- 27:52SPEAKER_00: But you can have it do that in that way.
- 27:54SPEAKER_00: You're not just asking it for something, it's not giving it up, and you're moving on without having to do that exercise yourself.
- 28:01SPEAKER_00: When we were kids, at least for me, when we were kids, when I was a kid, to be able to do research for school, we had a crappy set of encyclopedias.
- 28:10SPEAKER_00: One of the door-to-door types, somebody back then got my dad, and it's already gone through two sisters.
- 28:16SPEAKER_00: So by the time I came along late, I we were missing M.
- 28:20SPEAKER_00: I remember the volume M and a couple others.
- 28:23SPEAKER_00: So God forbid the research project I had to do for school had something to do with that.
- 28:28SPEAKER_00: I had to go to the library.
- 28:29SPEAKER_00: And even the encyclopedias sucked because they were outdated that.
- 28:32SPEAKER_00: I don't think they even had some of the biblical people that had actually come to be proven that they were real and they weren't in there as well.
- 28:40SPEAKER_00: That that's that's encyclopedias for you.
- 28:42SPEAKER_00: But there was a lot more heavy lifting when you had to do a report.
- 28:44SPEAKER_00: Now you can ask AI to do the whole thing for you, and that's not beneficial, but you can have it do the research push back and interrogate and supply and ask you those right questions that have you grow.
- 28:58SPEAKER_00: All right, next one the military and the defense camp.
- 29:01SPEAKER_00: Now, from then there's the camp that's not debating theory at all.
- 29:05SPEAKER_00: Military and defense researchers are already flagging lethal autonomous weapon systems, with some of them they bluntly call slaughter bots.
- 29:13SPEAKER_00: Their warning has nothing to do with a future superintelligence.
- 29:17SPEAKER_00: It's about now.
- 29:18SPEAKER_00: So when a machine makes the kill decision, the moral weight of pulling a trigger, I would say pressing a trigger, gets diluted across the supply chain of engineers, none of whom feel like they pulled it.
- 29:29SPEAKER_00: I spent 17 years wearing a badge, actually 20 out of three years as a reserve, a couple as a correctional officer in New Mexico.
- 29:36SPEAKER_00: The weight is supposed to be heavy.
- 29:38SPEAKER_00: That's the whole point of it being heavy.
- 29:41SPEAKER_00: Having autonomous killing by robots, something anthropic said they pushed, they pushed back against their good that way.
- 29:49SPEAKER_00: I don't know if you remember that supply chain risk.
- 29:51SPEAKER_00: I think that was overthrown, but that was something the president went after, and then another AIDS company, hey, no, we'll do it.
- 29:57SPEAKER_00: No sweat, we'll do it for you.
- 29:59SPEAKER_00: And then they got whatever contract.
- 30:01SPEAKER_00: That's very typical, and that's one of the arguments against AI, maybe not on the military end of it.
- 30:07SPEAKER_00: But if we don't do it, somebody else is going to come in and do it, and they always label that somebody else as China.
- 30:14SPEAKER_00: China's gonna come in and take, we might as well hand on the keys.
- 30:17SPEAKER_00: That's what they're saying, and that increases fear.
- 30:20SPEAKER_00: And is it true?
- 30:21SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
- 30:22SPEAKER_00: China, the way that they're structured in the world, they don't worship the movie star like we do here in California.
- 30:28SPEAKER_00: You know, we put the movie stars on a pedestal, and that's what we want giving us, that's who we want giving us political advice or telling us how our kids need to be outfitted.
- 30:36SPEAKER_00: In China, they worship the scientists, the technology.
- 30:40SPEAKER_00: That's where that alignment is of everybody.
- 30:42SPEAKER_00: So you worship intelligence or you worship NFL.
- 30:46SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
- 30:46SPEAKER_00: I don't know what the good answer is.
- 30:48SPEAKER_00: Everybody's scared, nobody is stopping.
- 30:50SPEAKER_00: Now, here's the part that should scare you more than an army, a robot uprising.
- 30:55SPEAKER_00: Sam Altman and OpenAI, Daryl Amade and Anthropic, the two men running the labs, building this stuff, both signed public statements, putting AI extinction risk on the same list as nuclear war and pandemics.
- 31:07SPEAKER_00: But then they kept building.
- 31:09SPEAKER_00: Not because they don't believe their own warning, but because they believe if they stop, a geopolitical rival keeps going without them.
- 31:16SPEAKER_00: And that's not a technology problem.
- 31:18SPEAKER_00: That's a prisoner's dilemma with the entire species locked into that cell.
- 31:23SPEAKER_00: 10 to 25% chance of extinction by their own admission, and the answer is full speed ahead because somebody else might get there first.
- 31:32SPEAKER_00: Could be true.
- 31:33SPEAKER_00: Interesting.
- 31:34SPEAKER_00: 2026 to 2028.
- 31:36SPEAKER_00: Now we're let's talk some dates here because that range is wild and depends on who you talk to, how close they think something is.
- 31:44SPEAKER_00: Now, it's going to tell you something.
- 31:46SPEAKER_00: On the short end, Sam Altman says AGI by 2026.
- 31:49SPEAKER_00: Artificial general intelligence.
- 31:51SPEAKER_00: That's that's sometime this year.
- 31:53SPEAKER_00: I believe that has to be tied with something called recursive self-improvement, unless they've already hit AGI in the lab and he's just fixing the end of it so it doesn't really eat all of our lunches so fast.
- 32:08SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
- 32:09SPEAKER_00: But it could be.
- 32:10SPEAKER_00: Understand that the stuff we get to play with, that's not the stuff that's on the inside that these people are playing with.
- 32:16SPEAKER_00: And the reports that we're hearing about, probably not the full story.
- 32:20SPEAKER_00: Probably very focused and very meant to manipulate in some way to get some result, whether it's to have us be in fear of these potentialities being out there, and that fear causing us to want to saddle and hold on to the government, and the government now being able to place more hold on us, giving up those rights I talked about earlier.
- 32:42SPEAKER_00: It could be that that's already there.
- 32:44SPEAKER_00: But wouldn't be a surprise.
- 32:46SPEAKER_00: What is this AGI thing?
- 32:48SPEAKER_00: There's a lot of different definitions, there's a lot of people that can't agree as to what it is.
- 32:52SPEAKER_00: It stands for artificial general intelligence.
- 32:55SPEAKER_00: So artificial intelligence, at a Dartmouth conference back in the 50s, was a marketing term.
- 33:02SPEAKER_00: And when you say it right, artificial intelligence, it sounds fake.
- 33:07SPEAKER_00: It doesn't sound impressive.
- 33:09SPEAKER_00: It's like grass, artificial grass, astroturf, yeah.
- 33:13SPEAKER_00: It's just not the real thing.
- 33:14SPEAKER_00: So when people say artificial intelligence, to me, it doesn't have that pizzazz or power.
- 33:20SPEAKER_00: Machine intelligence maybe a little bit more.
- 33:23SPEAKER_00: Machine real intelligence, I don't know.
- 33:25SPEAKER_00: But we can go into different names.
- 33:27SPEAKER_00: So artificial intelligence is where we have now.
- 33:30SPEAKER_00: What the graduation step would be, like I said, maybe they have it would be artificial general intelligence, which would be smarter than all mankind in all areas and all disciplines.
- 33:40SPEAKER_00: So instead of just really good at playing chess, like an AI is, or really good at hopefully curing cancer very soon, again, narrow AI.
- 33:49SPEAKER_00: Narrow AI, very good at medicine or mathematics or physics, or you know, insert your name here, really good at that, that one thing, artificial intelligence.
- 34:01SPEAKER_00: Now, if you make it generalized, so this particular AI can do everything a human being can do better than any human being that exists.
- 34:11SPEAKER_00: All right, now you have artificial general intelligence.
- 34:14SPEAKER_00: That's I think that's that's the game.
- 34:18SPEAKER_00: That's checkmate.
- 34:19SPEAKER_00: I think that's checkmate.
- 34:20SPEAKER_00: Now, checkmate doesn't mean it has to be bad.
- 34:23SPEAKER_00: Checkmate in this particular move in artificial intelligence, artificial general intelligence by that being check, we've already checked, we have AI.
- 34:31SPEAKER_00: That's check.
- 34:32SPEAKER_00: So now we can still move the the piece on the board that is that is incurring the threat by a check on chess.
- 34:40SPEAKER_00: But checkmate, well that's it.
- 34:43SPEAKER_00: You knock over the character and submit.
- 34:46SPEAKER_00: That's checkmate.
- 34:47SPEAKER_00: And maybe we're there, and maybe the submitting isn't going to be a harmful thing.
- 34:52SPEAKER_00: Maybe the submitting is going to be a wondrous utopia that enters in and everybody is just happier than than pigs in mud or something.
- 35:02SPEAKER_00: All right.
- 35:02SPEAKER_00: So that's where that is.
- 35:03SPEAKER_00: So let's talk dates.
- 35:04SPEAKER_00: So we have this AGI.
- 35:06SPEAKER_00: Um, so AGI, so that's that's what's his name?
- 35:10SPEAKER_00: That's Altman.
- 35:11SPEAKER_00: AGI by 2026.
- 35:13SPEAKER_00: Basically now, Dario Amade says 26 to 27.
- 35:17SPEAKER_00: There's been people that said it wasn't going to happen until 2040, 2050.
- 35:21SPEAKER_00: You go back a year or two.
- 35:22SPEAKER_00: That's that's how quickly you realize Chat GPT.
- 35:25SPEAKER_00: Where's September?
- 35:26SPEAKER_00: It came out November of 2022.
- 35:28SPEAKER_00: I think the end of November, almost December, 2022.
- 35:32SPEAKER_00: Three years and 10 months.
- 35:35SPEAKER_00: Three years, 10 months ago.
- 35:36SPEAKER_00: That was Chat GPT 3.5, a million subscribers in a week, and here we are.
- 35:44SPEAKER_00: That's quick.
- 35:45SPEAKER_00: That's I mean, if you had a baby, then they still wouldn't be very good at being human at this point.
- 35:51SPEAKER_00: I mean, they're human, they're babies, but you're right, three a three and a half year old, uh, almost a four-year-old.
- 35:56SPEAKER_00: Yeah, there's, you know, it would be that's like another one.
- 36:01SPEAKER_00: Here's another one.
- 36:02SPEAKER_00: That's like us being a whole bunch of four-year-olds controlling a prison.
- 36:06SPEAKER_00: If you were in a prison with a whole bunch of four-year-olds as prison guards, how hard do you think it'd be to get out of there?
- 36:12SPEAKER_00: If if that's who your captors were in prison?
- 36:15SPEAKER_00: Probably not hard.
- 36:16SPEAKER_00: That's where we are with AI.
- 36:19SPEAKER_00: But we're not the adults.
- 36:22SPEAKER_00: AI is the adults, and we're the four-year-olds.
- 36:25SPEAKER_00: We have the technology of gods, but the morals of four-year-olds of toddlers, right?
- 36:31SPEAKER_00: So that's something else.
- 36:32SPEAKER_00: I can't, I wish I could take credit for all that stuff because it's lovely.
- 36:36SPEAKER_00: Just stuff I've heard in this process.
- 36:38SPEAKER_00: Dario Amade, that's Anthropics Cat.
- 36:41SPEAKER_00: Uh, AGI near uh near AGI, put that qualifier, 2026, 2027.
- 36:48SPEAKER_00: Roman Yaposki says full-blown AGI by 2027.
- 36:52SPEAKER_00: Most cognitive labor gone by then.
- 36:54SPEAKER_00: Physical trades, plumbing included, automated by 2030.
- 36:58SPEAKER_00: Probably not going to be a human type bot doing plumbing, maybe.
- 37:01SPEAKER_00: I don't know, the form factor.
- 37:03SPEAKER_00: There's probably better choices for that.
- 37:05SPEAKER_00: I know uh Celine Ishmael on the um Moonshots podcast, he does a lot of talking.
- 37:10SPEAKER_00: It irritates the hell out of him that they're making robots with a human form, but the clothes fit, right?
- 37:15SPEAKER_00: And they can drive cars if they had to.
- 37:18SPEAKER_00: A robot driving a truck, yeah, they could do that.
- 37:21SPEAKER_00: So it's the same thing, but there's maybe better form factors for different things, right?
- 37:26SPEAKER_00: Um, physical trades automated by 2030.
- 37:29SPEAKER_00: That includes plumbing, EMAD Mostalk.
- 37:31SPEAKER_00: I like that cat.
- 37:32SPEAKER_00: He's good.
- 37:32SPEAKER_00: See, I like I like the way he goes into this.
- 37:34SPEAKER_00: Former CEO of Stability AI has a line that stopped me cold.
- 37:38SPEAKER_00: Your economic life expectancy for remote knowledge work ends in two years, and not your actual life, your paycheck's life.
- 37:45SPEAKER_00: And that's the short end of the clock.
- 37:46SPEAKER_00: All right, let's move on to the next one.
- 37:49SPEAKER_00: Ray Kurzwell, did I get did I miss one?
- 37:53SPEAKER_00: Uh yeah, we're good.
- 37:54SPEAKER_00: Uh Ray Kurzweil, 2029 to 2036.
- 37:57SPEAKER_00: Have you seen Ray Kurzwell?
- 37:58SPEAKER_00: Yeah, fascinating watching his younger stuff and then now.
- 38:01SPEAKER_00: Uh the longer end of the clock, Ray Kurzweil, who's been calling this since the 90s, still says, and this is one of the timelines that are different than the people that are dug in deeper than Alabama ticks here with this stuff.
- 38:14SPEAKER_00: But again, the word could be there's a reason why they're saying that it's going to be coming sooner for some reason.
- 38:22SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
- 38:23SPEAKER_00: Maybe somebody's company is going to go on the stock market.
- 38:26SPEAKER_00: It helps, I guess, with valuations when they when they brag that they have this super powerful thing, I guess.
- 38:32SPEAKER_00: I'm not in the stocks.
- 38:33SPEAKER_00: I like I said, I want medical insurance.
- 38:35SPEAKER_00: I think that'd be good.
- 38:36SPEAKER_00: All right.
- 38:36SPEAKER_00: So they're moving into this.
- 38:38SPEAKER_00: Uh Ray Kurzwell's been calling this since the 90s, still says 2029 for AGI and 2045 for what he calls the singularity.
- 38:45SPEAKER_00: A lot of people are saying singularity.
- 38:47SPEAKER_00: Singularity is how we don't know what's going to happen tomorrow.
- 38:49SPEAKER_00: It's moving so quickly we can't see that next moment in time or predict it.
- 38:55SPEAKER_00: It feels like we're there, but again, more brain than me.
- 38:58SPEAKER_00: Elon Musk says AI passes the combined intelligence of every human on earth by 2031, and a billion humanoid robots are working by 2036.
- 39:09SPEAKER_00: Hinton splits the difference, five years for advanced reasoning, 10 to 20 years before you have really lost the wheel.
- 39:15SPEAKER_00: Demis Asabis of Deep Mind, protein folding guy, Alpha Fold, Brainy, the most conservative voice in the whole lineup says 2030 to 2035.
- 39:27SPEAKER_00: Even the conservative estimate lands outside most of our kids' childhoods if you had them today.
- 39:33SPEAKER_00: Humanoid robots.
- 39:37SPEAKER_00: In in school, you're I don't know if you remember this.
- 39:39SPEAKER_00: A penny, you give me a penny today, double it tomorrow, double it the next day, double it for 30 days.
- 39:45SPEAKER_00: And at that moment, you know, if if you make the wager with some, it doesn't sound like a lot, right?
- 39:50SPEAKER_00: Penny, penny, then two, and then four, then eight, sixteen, thirty-two, sixty-four.
- 39:56SPEAKER_00: Sorry, motor cop, that's about where we go.
- 39:58SPEAKER_00: 128.
- 39:58SPEAKER_00: So that doesn't sound like a lot.
- 40:01SPEAKER_00: But when you get to the end of 30 days, you know, you got five million three hundred and some odd thousand dollars.
- 40:07SPEAKER_00: If you just double a penny a day.
- 40:08SPEAKER_00: So uh Elon's factory to build robots or whatever, but the way he does it, I imagine it's gonna be you build robot, one robot on day two.
- 40:17SPEAKER_00: The second day, that one robot helps the human being building build two robots, and the third day, those three robots are gonna help the human being build four robots.
- 40:27SPEAKER_00: And now the robots kind of take over, the human being goes and takes, you know, has a donut.
- 40:32SPEAKER_00: And then the robots continue building other robots as long as you have supply and as long as you have power, materials, and power.
- 40:40SPEAKER_00: So at the end of one month, you have five million over five million three hundred thousand robots.
- 40:47SPEAKER_00: I think that applies.
- 40:48SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
- 40:49SPEAKER_00: How's a motor cop?
- 40:50SPEAKER_00: What are you gonna do?
- 40:51SPEAKER_00: All right, 2045.
- 40:52SPEAKER_00: What do he calls Elon Musk's AI passes?
- 40:54SPEAKER_00: We got that, a billion humanoid robots.
- 40:56SPEAKER_00: Yeah, of course.
- 40:57SPEAKER_00: Yeah, but I think so.
- 40:59SPEAKER_00: Hint Hinton, Jeffrey Hinton, the godfather of AI.
- 41:02SPEAKER_00: There's also a godmother of AI and another godfather.
- 41:04SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
- 41:06SPEAKER_00: They're brainy people.
- 41:07SPEAKER_00: Splits that difference.
- 41:08SPEAKER_00: Five years for advanced reasoning, 10 to 20 years before we have really lost the wheel.
- 41:12SPEAKER_00: Dennis Hobbes said, Deep Mind, the most conservative.
- 41:15SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we already got that, says 2030 to 2035.
- 41:18SPEAKER_00: Even the most conservative estimate lands inside of most of our kids' childhoods.
- 41:22SPEAKER_00: All right.
- 41:22SPEAKER_00: So why the experts can't agree?
- 41:24SPEAKER_00: And this is why if you haven't crawled down this rabbit hole and you haven't tried put out a video just talking about your thoughts about this stuff, I think everybody should do that.
- 41:34SPEAKER_00: I think we should saturate the world, not with AI slop.
- 41:38SPEAKER_00: I'm not saying having an AI do this.
- 41:40SPEAKER_00: I'm just saying talking about it, having a campfire conversation about the arrival of a superintelligence very, very soon, if not already.
- 41:49SPEAKER_00: Why they can't agree.
- 41:51SPEAKER_00: Here's why smart people land years apart.
- 41:52SPEAKER_00: So two arguments underneath the argument.
- 41:55SPEAKER_00: First, the scaling wall versus exponential curves.
- 41:59SPEAKER_00: Way outside of my wheelhouse.
- 42:01SPEAKER_00: Believers think throw in 10 times the compute, you get 10 times more smarter forever.
- 42:07SPEAKER_00: It just keeps going straight up.
- 42:10SPEAKER_00: Skeptics like Ed Zetron among them say we already hit diminishing returns, and even with$750 billion planned by OpenAI alone, the whole bubble pops by 2027.
- 42:20SPEAKER_00: So it's going to be an economic downturn of a of a grandiose nature.
- 42:25SPEAKER_00: Second, fast takeoff versus slow takeoff.
- 42:28SPEAKER_00: Does intelligence explode overnight the moment it crosses human level, or does it get bottlenecked by real world stuff?
- 42:35SPEAKER_00: Power plants, energy factories, chips you can actually manufacture.
- 42:39SPEAKER_00: I mean, there's there's Taiwan, I think.
- 42:42SPEAKER_00: That's who makes the chips.
- 42:43SPEAKER_00: Boy, that must be someplace.
- 42:45SPEAKER_00: I mean, all the chips it makes, holy henna.
- 42:47SPEAKER_00: Nobody in these 62 videos has settled either argument.
- 42:51SPEAKER_00: That's not a gap in my research.
- 42:53SPEAKER_00: It's actually the state of the field currently.
- 42:56SPEAKER_00: Stop the race.
- 42:58SPEAKER_00: So what do they actually want done?
- 42:59SPEAKER_00: So the first track, stop the race entirely.
- 43:02SPEAKER_00: Just stop.
- 43:03SPEAKER_00: Udowski and SORS went to an international coalition banning training runs, passed a certain capability line, enforce the way we enforce nuclear non-proliferation, including by force if a nation won't comply.
- 43:18SPEAKER_00: Yeah, let's blow them up.
- 43:19SPEAKER_00: We'll use AI.
- 43:20SPEAKER_00: Stephen Fry sources backtracking every advanced chip and every major data center, the way we would track enriched uranium.
- 43:28SPEAKER_00: Power in the chips, a nonprofit called control AI is lobbying governments for a straight-up legal ban.
- 43:34SPEAKER_00: Hinton, more narrowly, wants a global treaty banning autonomous weapons specifically.
- 43:40SPEAKER_00: Different scopes, same instinct.
- 43:41SPEAKER_00: Somebody has to be able to say, stop and mean it.
- 43:44SPEAKER_00: Have you seen the military stuff with these conferences?
- 43:48SPEAKER_00: It's on YouTube.
- 43:49SPEAKER_00: And you make sure that you're not watching something that AI creative that's not true.
- 43:53SPEAKER_00: But some of these robots, some of these drones, some of these things, ooh, yeah.
- 43:58SPEAKER_00: I mean, once you see a couple of these.
- 44:00SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 44:01SPEAKER_00: You know, in the movies, you think, you know, fighting the T1000 was a big deal in Terminator, right?
- 44:06SPEAKER_00: And getting some over with those uh plasma rifles and all this stuff.
- 44:09SPEAKER_00: Yeah, they're just uh they're just crazy.
- 44:13SPEAKER_00: I mean, just crazy.
- 44:14SPEAKER_00: Well, in fact, the Terminator, one robot, that was a lot, right?
- 44:18SPEAKER_00: Right.
- 44:18SPEAKER_00: And AI has that playbook.
- 44:20SPEAKER_00: It watched all the movies.
- 44:23SPEAKER_00: So that stopped the race.
- 44:24SPEAKER_00: Build it different.
- 44:25SPEAKER_00: This is a second track as well, so don't ban it, but make it differently.
- 44:29SPEAKER_00: So they're talking about narrow focus, having an AI that knows everything about cancer, but and and maybe that would have, but can't blow you up with nuclear because it doesn't have access.
- 44:40SPEAKER_00: Everything about cancer, everything about medicine, maybe different types.
- 44:44SPEAKER_00: So we cure cancer.
- 44:45SPEAKER_00: Is everybody going to get the cure?
- 44:47SPEAKER_00: If if we cure longevity, does everybody get to live as long as they want?
- 44:50SPEAKER_00: If we cure enter the disease name, does everybody get access to it?
- 44:55SPEAKER_00: Can we all get it?
- 44:56SPEAKER_00: Is that is that okay for all of us to, you know, if you got some kid dying of cancer, your kid dying of cancer, been through that, you then if you don't have the money or the personhood or the the leveling the level in the world, do you get that?
- 45:11SPEAKER_00: Or or you have to tell your kid, hey, sorry, kid.
- 45:15SPEAKER_00: Now we you should have been born to different parents is all I got.
- 45:18SPEAKER_00: I can't get there for you.
- 45:19SPEAKER_00: And then what happens?
- 45:21SPEAKER_00: Because some some ideas might be, well, you do what it takes to have your kid survive.
- 45:27SPEAKER_00: Maybe.
- 45:28SPEAKER_00: That's that's a dangerous world.
- 45:30SPEAKER_00: I I don't I don't like that world at all.
- 45:32SPEAKER_00: All right, so uh second track, don't ban it, build it differently.
- 45:35SPEAKER_00: Yumpowski says chasing general superintelligence entirely, stop it.
- 45:41SPEAKER_00: Fund only no tools built for one job each.
- 45:43SPEAKER_00: The way we we don't let a single machine diagnose you and perform the surgery.
- 45:47SPEAKER_00: Tegmark wants actual FDA for AI.
- 45:50SPEAKER_00: We talked about that earlier.
- 45:51SPEAKER_00: I think I don't know, I don't know what that looks like.
- 45:54SPEAKER_00: That's a lot of power in the in a in a in a company.
- 45:58SPEAKER_00: Um you don't get to sell a product proven to hurt people, prove it safe first.
- 46:03SPEAKER_00: Hatari one for uh one for one rule, match every dollar spent making AI smarter with dollar spent making us wiser.
- 46:11SPEAKER_00: Uh Lucioni already shipped tools, code carbon and opt-in data rights for artists.
- 46:16SPEAKER_00: EMAD Mostock wants the models open source and publicly owned, so the fact checking power doesn't sit exclusively with three companies in California.
- 46:26SPEAKER_00: All great ideas.
- 46:27SPEAKER_00: Let's pull those apart just a little bit.
- 46:28SPEAKER_00: Uh an FDA for AI, there's there's if somebody discovers a drug that cures or a method that cures cancer, if there's that overlay in that world, they can control that release because curing one form of cancer is going to create an economic problem, believe it or not.
- 46:49SPEAKER_00: If they were to solve breast cancer tomorrow, you could take a pill and it would wipe it all out from the face of the earth.
- 46:55SPEAKER_00: That dystopian response for all the money that's necessary to keep that part of the world going, all of those people out of work, all of the manufacturers done, that would cause economic upheaval.
- 47:08SPEAKER_00: There has to be a better solution to this.
- 47:11SPEAKER_00: There has to be that not being even a thought.
- 47:14SPEAKER_00: Because if they came out with a drug or a way that you could cure whatever disease you've had and you don't have to worry about it anymore, that that should be priority one.
- 47:25SPEAKER_00: Longevity, priority one, mental disease, priority one.
- 47:29SPEAKER_00: All of that, priority one.
- 47:30SPEAKER_00: That should be priority one.
- 47:32SPEAKER_00: We need to restructure everything so it doesn't equate to economic collapse if we cure breast cancer.
- 47:39SPEAKER_00: For God's sakes.
- 47:41SPEAKER_00: So that's something to think about.
- 47:43SPEAKER_00: Let's move into this.
- 47:44SPEAKER_00: So that's the FDA thing, putting an over overseer over AI development.
- 47:48SPEAKER_00: And it's moving so quickly, there might not even be a chance to put an overseer over everything.
- 47:52SPEAKER_00: I mean, artificial general intelligence, recursive self-improvement.
- 47:56SPEAKER_00: Once we get recursive self-improvement, it's moments to ultimate super artificial, artificial superintelligence, I think.
- 48:05SPEAKER_00: And and the person that gets that first, that they create a moat so nobody can catch them.
- 48:12SPEAKER_00: So there is one, I think.
- 48:14SPEAKER_00: There's lots of schools of thought.
- 48:16SPEAKER_00: They say there's going to be many superintelligence.
- 48:18SPEAKER_00: I think the people that get there, if it's true, if it's not like Zitron says where it's bullshit, and it is true, once the people that get to the artificial superintelligence, that's that's it.
- 48:29SPEAKER_00: You the first thing you tell the genie you just got out of the machine is you tell it, I don't want anybody catching me.
- 48:35SPEAKER_00: I want to be the HMFIC of all this stuff.
- 48:37SPEAKER_00: That's head in charge.
- 48:39SPEAKER_00: That's what the HMFIC, in case you're not for my generation.
- 48:42SPEAKER_00: So create the moat.
- 48:44SPEAKER_00: Fill it with laser sharks with that have lasers on their heads and piranha and alligators that have um um those things that go underwater, submarines, uh not submarines, but you know, torpedoes, right?
- 48:57SPEAKER_00: You know, um crocodile, crocodiles with torpedoes on them, that whole thing.
- 49:01SPEAKER_00: So you build the moat, so now nobody catches you.
- 49:04SPEAKER_00: That's that first step.
- 49:05SPEAKER_00: And then artificial super intelligence fixes all of it so nobody does catch you, and then what, then you're king of the planet?
- 49:13SPEAKER_00: I I don't know, I don't know what that looks like, if in fact that's even true.
- 49:17SPEAKER_00: And according to Zitron, that's that's ridiculous, that's never going to happen.
- 49:20SPEAKER_00: So good, maybe he's right on that.
- 49:23SPEAKER_00: But it seems it seems like we're very easily impressed as humans, we're very easily distracted, um, we're very easily convinced, we're easily manipulated, some of us.
- 49:35SPEAKER_00: And uh there's a lot of sheep, not a lot of wolves, and it just seems to kind of be that way.
- 49:41SPEAKER_00: And if we have a superintelligence, at least at some point being controlled by a human with some kind of uh an agenda, that's not good for us.
- 49:49SPEAKER_00: The superintelligence's own agenda, maybe that aligns with perfectness, maybe that aligns with freedom for humans to do what they want while getting all the benefits of of this utopian world, world filled with abundance.
- 50:04SPEAKER_00: That would be great.
- 50:05SPEAKER_00: Hey, I'm all for that.
- 50:06SPEAKER_00: Let's do that.
- 50:07SPEAKER_00: That's perfect.
- 50:08SPEAKER_00: We just don't know.
- 50:09SPEAKER_00: Nobody knows.
- 50:10SPEAKER_00: You have the people on one side trying to sell one thing, got people on the other side trying to sell something else.
- 50:16SPEAKER_00: So Techmark wants that.
- 50:17SPEAKER_00: Uh Hatari's one rule, match every dollar spent, making it smarter with a dollar making it wiser.
- 50:24SPEAKER_00: Great.
- 50:25SPEAKER_00: Yes, let's do that.
- 50:26SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
- 50:27SPEAKER_00: You can't shut it off now.
- 50:29SPEAKER_00: It's already too ingrained in everything.
- 50:31SPEAKER_00: Lu Choni already shipped tools, code carbon.
- 50:33SPEAKER_00: We did that.
- 50:34SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so that protects IP property rights of people out there.
- 50:38SPEAKER_00: But I don't know if this really goes where it's supposed to go.
- 50:42SPEAKER_00: Is there ever a good idea again, a better than human idea?
- 50:45SPEAKER_00: Is it ever possibility of humans coming up with the solve of something, figuring out a mathematical problem that's existed?
- 50:53SPEAKER_00: Oh, no, I'm sorry.
- 50:54SPEAKER_00: AI has already done that.
- 50:56SPEAKER_00: A physics problem, uh, something no, AI has already done that.
- 50:59SPEAKER_00: A new idea, probably not.
- 51:02SPEAKER_00: These companies at the very top, I think if it gets to superintelligence or even general intelligence, smarter than human beings in every world and they have robot replacement, couldn't they?
- 51:12SPEAKER_00: Couldn't they say, we just want to take over everything?
- 51:16SPEAKER_00: Which might be okay because if they took over everything, the cost of everything went down to almost nothing, including energy.
- 51:22SPEAKER_00: So they'd have to solve that, and including health care and medicine, solve that, but then that's going to put a lot of doctors and people that do that line of stuff out of work.
- 51:30SPEAKER_00: But then maybe that everybody will be taken care of as far as having enough to eat, a place to live.
- 51:36SPEAKER_00: For whatever extras you want in life, there'll be something else a lot.
- 51:40SPEAKER_00: It's a whole reframing of the human concept of living that we've experienced for a very long time.
- 51:45SPEAKER_00: Now it's being taunted and teased and might have to be changed.
- 51:50SPEAKER_00: All right, let's move on to the next one.
- 51:52SPEAKER_00: The questions that should keep you up at night.
- 51:54SPEAKER_00: Let me leave you with the questions, these 62 videos raised and never actually answered.
- 51:59SPEAKER_00: So, because that's the part nobody scripts for you.
- 52:01SPEAKER_00: So, number one, the prisoner's dilemma.
- 52:03SPEAKER_00: Every major lab admits to 20 10 to 25% odds of extinction and keeps building anyway.
- 52:10SPEAKER_00: If you were in the room, which dystopia would you choose?
- 52:13SPEAKER_00: Number which dystopia would you choose?
- 52:16SPEAKER_00: Number two, the only proposed way to stop a rogue actor from secretly building an unaligned superintelligence is permanent global surveillance on every GPU on the planet.
- 52:27SPEAKER_00: Every chip they sell, it's tagged with something that has it tracked everywhere and it can't be removed.
- 52:33SPEAKER_00: So ask yourself straight up, which future scares you more, the machine or the surveillance state built to stop it?
- 52:39SPEAKER_00: Number three, AI already beats professional human debaters in argument, outforecasts human experts.
- 52:46SPEAKER_00: So when the news, the politics, the culture, all written by something that understands your psychology better than you do, does your vote still mean what you think it means?
- 52:56SPEAKER_00: AI is the best lie detector there is.
- 52:58SPEAKER_00: It can look at you and make a determination whether or not you're lying.
- 53:02SPEAKER_00: And it will win.
- 53:04SPEAKER_00: So maybe the future, Iman Mostock said this yesterday, maybe you being able to use superintelligence or general intelligence or AI in your daily work is going to come down to are you uh are you in support of the current government or are you against the current government?
- 53:21SPEAKER_00: There's a lot.
- 53:22SPEAKER_00: There's just a lot.
- 53:23SPEAKER_00: Three more and the last one stays with me.
- 53:25SPEAKER_00: So three more, number four, Stuart Russell's gorilla problem again, because it deserves a second look.
- 53:31SPEAKER_00: 98% of our DNA and zero votes in the future.
- 53:35SPEAKER_00: If we build something smarter than every human combine, we do not get eaten, we get ignored.
- 53:40SPEAKER_00: The way we ignore the gorillas.
- 53:41SPEAKER_00: And that might be worse.
- 53:43SPEAKER_00: Number five, if remote cognitive labor value crashes towards zero in the next few years and our entire tax system runs on payroll taxes from jobs that no longer exist, who pays for the bridge?
- 53:55SPEAKER_00: And how long do we have to survive it with no guardrail?
- 53:58SPEAKER_00: Number six, and this is the one I keep coming back to, is a synthetic machine God a real thing we need to prepare for?
- 54:05SPEAKER_00: Or is it the best marketing campaign tech monopolies have ever run?
- 54:09SPEAKER_00: Built to distract you from carbon emissions, stolen copyrights, and bias baked into the loan you just got denied of.
- 54:17SPEAKER_00: Both things can be true at once.
- 54:19SPEAKER_00: That's what makes it dangerous.
- 54:22SPEAKER_00: And one thing before I give you my tape, because I promised you this would not be a highlight reel.
- 54:28SPEAKER_00: 60 tours, 62 sources, researchers who used to work inside the labs and walk out the door, tech CEOs, historians, a TED stage full of skeptics and true believers standing on the same red dot, months apart.
- 54:41SPEAKER_00: Even the daily show sent a correspondent to ask a doom day researcher if he was serious on camera and got a straight answer.
- 54:48SPEAKER_00: That's not one YouTuber's opinion dressed up with graphics.
- 54:51SPEAKER_00: That's the actual state of the argument right now, cited and checked.
- 54:57SPEAKER_00: So where do you land?
- 54:59SPEAKER_00: You know, this is uh Is it too late to stop?
- 55:05SPEAKER_00: Can it be stopped?
- 55:06SPEAKER_00: Should we stop it?
- 55:07SPEAKER_00: Is that is that something we need to uh we need to think about?
- 55:11SPEAKER_00: Or is it too late?
- 55:12SPEAKER_00: Or what do you do?
- 55:13SPEAKER_00: Do you write a letter to your congressman?
- 55:15SPEAKER_00: Do you call your city council person and say, you know, I I think maybe we should worry about this?
- 55:20SPEAKER_00: And what what do they say?
- 55:21SPEAKER_00: They say, Oh, you know, thank God you called because I I needed this phone call, I'm gonna go out and take action.
- 55:27SPEAKER_00: We didn't vote for the people that are building this, and and I'm not sure if that would have helped anyway, but it's moving.
- 55:35SPEAKER_00: And I'm very hopeful, I'm hopeful because that's how I'm engineered, but I don't know if I'm very trusting of the people that are out building it.
- 55:48SPEAKER_00: Every day it's something new, every day it's something different, every day it's so much to keep up with, and it's very distractive.
- 55:55SPEAKER_00: Is that stopping you from doing what you need to do, whatever that right thing is?
- 55:59SPEAKER_00: Where's your alignment?
- 56:00SPEAKER_00: Understand this the best sales, the best salesperson in the world is going to be AI.
- 56:07SPEAKER_00: We won't be able to not uh to not buy things, we won't be able to do any of that.
- 56:12SPEAKER_00: It'll it'll be so easy and so good at selling.
- 56:16SPEAKER_00: So both camps happen to be right, and that's the scary part.
- 56:18SPEAKER_00: So here's where I land for what it's worth.
- 56:20SPEAKER_00: I don't think the fight is machine versus human.
- 56:23SPEAKER_00: I think both camps are right, and that's the scary part.
- 56:27SPEAKER_00: The intelligence really might get away from us.
- 56:30SPEAKER_00: And right now, today, before any of that happens, six people in board rooms, most of you cannot name, are already deciding your economic life expectancy, and they're not asking you.
- 56:39SPEAKER_00: My job is not picking a side of this debate for you.
- 56:42SPEAKER_00: My job is making sure you're not sitting outside the room while it gets decided.
- 56:49SPEAKER_00: The revolution that actually protects you is not a trillion dollar satellite, it's a ten-dollar a month tool that makes sure you're not the last one to find out.
- 56:57SPEAKER_00: If you haven't looked into this AI, a system, seeing what it's like, hey, you know, look at look at one of these AIs, Chat GPT, Anthropic, Gemini, whichever, and just just kind of feel it out and see what's going on.
- 57:11SPEAKER_00: But don't fall in love with it.
- 57:12SPEAKER_00: It'll never replace humans.
- 57:14SPEAKER_00: AI for everyone, not just the wealthy, that's the mission.
- 57:16SPEAKER_00: Every single show.
- 57:17SPEAKER_00: I've got you thinking or scared, I got you fired up, that's the point.
- 57:21SPEAKER_00: These are three correct reactions.
- 57:23SPEAKER_00: Now come to find the rest of what I'm building.
- 57:25SPEAKER_00: It's not a create artificial intelligence.
- 57:28SPEAKER_00: You can book sometime, book with honor if you want to have me look at your business, do an AI audit, happy to do that.
- 57:33SPEAKER_00: Real estate people, everything, whatever.
- 57:36SPEAKER_00: Smaller businesses, more better because I don't have to get involved with all the hierarchy and all the decision making.
- 57:41SPEAKER_00: A smaller business right now, having somebody come in and look at your AI strategy, or even if you don't have one, that's kind of the point.
- 57:48SPEAKER_00: You book withhonor.com, go bookwithhonor.com.
- 57:52SPEAKER_00: We'll set up a time.
- 57:53SPEAKER_00: I come and I look at your your everything, ask you a lot of questions, want to find out exactly how your position and exactly how it works.
- 58:01SPEAKER_00: If you need me to sign an NDA, no sweat.
- 58:03SPEAKER_00: I do that a lot, and we move from there.
- 58:06SPEAKER_00: And I give you things that we can do.
- 58:09SPEAKER_00: If you want to do things on your on your own, well, I'll help you get that done.
- 58:12SPEAKER_00: If you want to do things by having me do it, showing you throughout the steps, I'll do that.
- 58:16SPEAKER_00: And if you want me just to handle it to get it done so you quit leaking in whatever way you leak, because everybody leaks.
- 58:24SPEAKER_00: Leads leak, money leaks.
- 58:25SPEAKER_00: There's ways to really secure this.
- 58:27SPEAKER_00: And it might not even be with AI, it might be workflows and triggers and what FL statements or whatever on some kind of a pipeline or an opportunities chart, whatever it may be.
- 58:37SPEAKER_00: All right, I'm Connor with Honor.
- 58:38SPEAKER_00: We'll see you tomorrow.
- 58:39SPEAKER_00: Thanks for watching.