Latest / Pod Save America / “Thanksgiving Mailbag!”

Transcript

“Thanksgiving Mailbag!” · Pod Save America

0:20
Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
0:22
Speaker 2: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
0:23
Speaker 1: On today's show, Dan and I dig into the annual
0:26
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving mailbag to answer all your midterm questions and more.
0:30
Speaker 3: Or, to quote Dan, the episode where I reveal which
0:34
Speaker 3: book I read this year.
0:37
Speaker 2: We are all winning with bated breath.
0:41
Speaker 3: I had to really think about it.
0:44
Speaker 1: Anyway, before we start, the Crooked Store and Crooked Coffee
0:47
Speaker 1: just launched a huge Black Friday sale in time for
0:49
Speaker 1: the holidays. We're offering 25% off site-wide with code SAVE25.
0:53
Speaker 1: And since we have a very important runoff on December 6th,
0:57
Speaker 1: We'll be donating a portion of the proceeds to Vote
0:59
Speaker 1: Save America's Every Last Vote Fund to ensure that every
1:02
Speaker 1: single person who wants to vote can have their voice
1:04
Speaker 1: heard and get people to the polls. Offer ends Monday
1:07
Speaker 1: the 28th, so head to crooked.com slash holiday to shop
1:10
Speaker 1: and learn more.
1:11
Speaker 3: All right, let's get to your questions.
1:14
Speaker 1: Evelyn 2 asks, Can we say now with relative clarity
1:17
Speaker 1: which voters surprised us and moved the midterm results in
1:20
Speaker 1: Democrats' favor? Was it young single women, Gen Z, black voters, etc.?
1:26
Speaker 1: Question mark.
1:28
Speaker 2: No, we can't say that yet.
1:29
Speaker 3: I mean, we can.
1:31
Speaker 2: Next question.
1:32
Speaker 3: Yes.
1:33
Speaker 2: I mean, we have exit poll data, which is pretty flawed,
1:40
Speaker 2: particularly when you get down to subgroups with a pretty
1:43
Speaker 2: monumental margin of error in those subgroups because they're so small.
1:47
Speaker 2: So the honest truth is we do not know yet
1:51
Speaker 2: which groups really both outperformed in terms of turnout and
1:56
Speaker 2: outperformed in terms of support. So we do not know
1:58
Speaker 2: the answer to that yet. A lot of people with
2:00
Speaker 2: a lot of theories and thoughts, some of them are
2:01
Speaker 2: going to end up being right, but we don't know
2:03
Speaker 2: with precision the right answer to that yet.
2:06
Speaker 1: Can I just say though, I'm going to defend the
2:08
Speaker 1: exit polls here because I didn't fully realize this until
2:11
Speaker 1: I dug in. Do you know the Edison exit poll,
2:14
Speaker 1: which is what the networks use, they did 20,000 interviews. 20,000
2:17
Speaker 1: interviews is like, so many more interviews than any poll
2:24
Speaker 1: that we ever talk about on this podcast. And then
2:28
Speaker 1: AP Votecast did 90,000 interviews for their exit poll. And
2:33
Speaker 1: both of those exit polls are now weighted to their
2:37
Speaker 1: results in all these districts. So that makes them a
2:39
Speaker 1: little bit more accurate. And you can also start looking
2:43
Speaker 1: at turnout differentials in district by district where all the
2:48
Speaker 1: votes have been counted. So you can, so we're, So
2:50
Speaker 1: there's some subgroups that we're not going to know, but
2:52
Speaker 1: some we can start getting an idea just by looking
2:55
Speaker 1: at the district.
2:58
Speaker 2: You can make guesses based on regional. If you would
3:01
Speaker 2: have knowledge about what the primary population of that precinct
3:05
Speaker 2: or district is, yes, you can make some. But just
3:08
Speaker 2: when there is a tendency to write the forever story
3:12
Speaker 2: of politics and then make a series of multibillion-dollar strategic decisions,
3:16
Speaker 2: based on these exit polls. And I would just tell
3:18
Speaker 2: everyone to just like hold their horses for a minute.
3:20
Speaker 1: I will give you a few things that we know
3:22
Speaker 1: or that we think we know. Overall turnout looks like
3:26
Speaker 1: it was down from 2018, but still higher than any
3:31
Speaker 1: midterm in decades, I think at least since 1970. So
3:35
Speaker 1: the 2018 anti-Trump coalition that showed up, there was some
3:40
Speaker 1: erosion from that, but still pretty strong, not 2010, not
3:42
Speaker 1: 2014 when there were big red waves. Overall, we know
3:47
Speaker 1: that the electorate was more Republican than it was in
3:50
Speaker 1: 18 or 20. More Republicans turned out than Democrats. How
3:54
Speaker 1: many more? How much more turnout? We don't know yet.
3:56
Speaker 1: We're still waiting for results, but we know that it
3:58
Speaker 1: was more. We know that independents made the difference. In
4:02
Speaker 1: the blue waves of 2018 and 2006, independents broke for
4:06
Speaker 1: Democrats by 18 points. In the red waves of 2010
4:10
Speaker 1: and 2014, they broke for Republicans by 19 and 12 points, respectively.
4:15
Speaker 1: In these midterms, it looks like they broke for Dems
4:18
Speaker 1: by two points. Again, as more numbers come in, that
4:21
Speaker 1: could change a little bit. But the split, the close
4:24
Speaker 1: split with independents is still notable and something that we
4:28
Speaker 1: probably know now. Youth turnout. A lot of articles about
4:32
Speaker 1: youth turnout I've seen. It was down from 2018, but
4:34
Speaker 1: higher than 2010 and higher than 2014. But it was
4:37
Speaker 1: still down from 2018. In 2018... Voters under 30 went
4:43
Speaker 1: for Democrats 67 to 32. In 2022, slightly worse margin, 63-35.
4:51
Speaker 1: Under 30s made up 12% of the electorate versus 13%
4:55
Speaker 1: of the electorate in 2018.
4:57
Speaker 3: So pretty close.
4:58
Speaker 1: And all that is from the Tufts data that everyone
5:01
Speaker 1: is citing to say that youth turnout was high. Because again,
5:04
Speaker 1: it was high, but it just wasn't as high in 2018.
5:06
Speaker 1: One thing that Kristen Soltis Anderson, who's a Republican pollster,
5:09
Speaker 1: but like a never Trumper and also focuses on the
5:13
Speaker 1: youth vote. She pointed out that while youth turnout under
5:18
Speaker 1: 30 vote was pretty much the same as 2018 in
5:21
Speaker 1: terms of margin, maybe a little less in terms of turnout.
5:24
Speaker 1: What really screwed Republicans is millennials, 30 to 44, because
5:29
Speaker 1: in 2010 Republican in the big red wave in 2010,
5:32
Speaker 1: Republicans won voters 30 to 44. In 2022, Democrats won
5:34
Speaker 1: those voters by 11%. A huge shift. So the real
5:42
Speaker 1: problem with the Republican Party is they were losing young
5:44
Speaker 1: voters when millennials were the under 30 crew. But now
5:48
Speaker 1: that millennials have aged into the 30 to 44 crew,
5:51
Speaker 1: they're losing both millennials and Gen Z, which is going
5:54
Speaker 1: to be a real problem for the Republican Party. I
5:56
Speaker 1: thought that was interesting because that means basically both the
5:59
Speaker 1: Obama generation and now the generation that's younger are now
6:03
Speaker 1: pretty anti-Republican.
6:05
Speaker 2: There are two things about this that are just worth noting,
6:06
Speaker 2: and then we can move on to all the other
6:08
Speaker 2: questions instead of spending 20 minutes on the first one.
6:10
Speaker 2: But is, one, because of the high turnout, not as
6:14
Speaker 2: high as 18, but much higher than 10 and 14,
6:17
Speaker 2: this midterm probably tells us a little bit more about
6:20
Speaker 2: 2024 than the old midterms. It used to be throw
6:23
Speaker 2: out the midterm. 2010 told us nothing about 2012. 1994
6:27
Speaker 2: told us about 1996. Just because there's this giant delta
6:32
Speaker 2: between midterm turnout and present turnout. It's almost like it
6:34
Speaker 2: was happening– in another half a nation. Second thing is
6:39
Speaker 2: that the people, it used to be that voters would
6:44
Speaker 2: change their party as they got older. This happened particularly
6:50
Speaker 2: with the boomers. They were liberals in the 60s. And
6:53
Speaker 2: then as they got older, became Republican. People are now
6:58
Speaker 2: sticking with their original partisan identity throughout the bulk of
7:02
Speaker 2: their life. So these are the same. It's not that
7:05
Speaker 2: the voters within that cohort shifted from Republican to Democrat.
7:07
Speaker 2: It's just the people who were Democrat got older. And
7:10
Speaker 2: then they're going to get older again. And that does
7:12
Speaker 2: for all the– there's all the talk about the demographic
7:16
Speaker 2: demise of the Republican Party. The real dramatic one is
7:19
Speaker 2: if they are not backfilling the voters who are aging
7:22
Speaker 2: into the electorate as we are. That is sort of
7:24
Speaker 2: the challenge there.
7:25
Speaker 3: Yeah.
7:26
Speaker 1: And last point I'll make on this, just to answer
7:29
Speaker 1: Evelyn's question, I think there's a tendency after an election
7:32
Speaker 1: to look at one demographic group or one age or
7:36
Speaker 1: whatever and say, oh, these are the people that helped
7:39
Speaker 1: win whichever part of the election. I think in an
7:42
Speaker 1: election with turnout so high from both sides, everything mattered.
7:48
Speaker 1: If turnout in any of the groups that we've talked
7:50
Speaker 1: about was down, we could have lost the Senate and
7:53
Speaker 1: If we lost some independents, we would have lost the Senate.
7:56
Speaker 1: It was making sure that our base turned out. It
7:58
Speaker 1: was making sure that independents and moderates were persuaded. It
8:02
Speaker 1: was all of the above in an election where that
8:05
Speaker 1: many Republicans turned out on the other side.
8:08
Speaker 3: All right.
8:09
Speaker 1: Thanks Timming asks, abortion seemingly brought Democratic candidates more success
8:14
Speaker 1: in flipping state legislatures and passing the referendums. How do
8:17
Speaker 1: you revisit the issue in 2024 at a national level?
8:21
Speaker 3: What's next on abortion?
8:24
Speaker 2: You know, we had this world that we'd hoped for
8:26
Speaker 2: where Democrats controlled the House and we would have 52 senators,
8:29
Speaker 2: 50 of whom would abolish a filibuster to codify Roe
8:33
Speaker 2: or some law like that. That's not the world we
8:35
Speaker 2: currently live in. But I think there are ways to
8:37
Speaker 2: keep this going. We now have Democratic governors with Democratic
8:42
Speaker 2: legislators and a lot of core battleground states who can
8:44
Speaker 2: pass laws. There is a handful of states where we can,
8:48
Speaker 2: like in Michigan— have an initiative on the ballot, like
8:51
Speaker 2: Michigan and California, to have an initiative on the ballot
8:54
Speaker 2: to put the right to choose into the Constitution or
8:58
Speaker 2: whatever the process allows there, and to continue to talk
9:02
Speaker 2: about and continue to drive home the Republican extreme position
9:08
Speaker 2: on this issue and all the other issues related to
9:10
Speaker 2: people's personal freedoms.
9:13
Speaker 1: I also think as we look at 2024, we have
9:15
Speaker 1: a Republican president and a Republican Congress in 2024, they're
9:21
Speaker 1: going to ban abortion nationwide, right? Like, isn't, I mean,
9:26
Speaker 1: this was a practically a state by state issue in
9:30
Speaker 1: this midterm, because abortion access really depended on who the
9:33
Speaker 1: governor was.
9:34
Speaker 3: Or ballot amendments, or ballot initiatives.
9:37
Speaker 1: But in 2024, the presidency is at stake. And if
9:41
Speaker 1: Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis wins, and there's a Republican Congress,
9:45
Speaker 1: I can't, I mean, I don't even think they'll pass
9:47
Speaker 1: the Lindsey Graham 15-week abortion ban.
9:50
Speaker 3: I feel like.
9:52
Speaker 1: Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis in a primary will get
9:54
Speaker 1: pushed to saying that they will have a complete abortion ban.
9:57
Speaker 3: What do you think?
9:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's true. My best guess is that
10:03
Speaker 2: when they finally stop fighting with each other and sit
10:06
Speaker 2: down and try to figure out what went wrong here,
10:09
Speaker 2: one of the issues that Republicans will decide they're going
10:12
Speaker 2: to talk less about is abortion. But the issue, what
10:16
Speaker 2: I think will affect this is whether there's a Republican
10:21
Speaker 2: primary or not. Because now they're going to have to
10:23
Speaker 2: start competing, whether it's Trump and DeSantis or Trump-DeSantis-Pence or
10:28
Speaker 2: Nikki Haley or Greg Gutfeld or whatever fucking yahoos are
10:32
Speaker 2: going to run for that job. They're going to be
10:36
Speaker 2: competing for that hardcore Republican base that pushes these extreme
10:41
Speaker 2: bans with no exceptions. And much like in 2012, when
10:46
Speaker 2: the Republican Party defined themselves out of the mainstream on
10:49
Speaker 2: immigration in that primary, you could see a similar dynamic
10:53
Speaker 2: potentially taking place there. And it'll be coming upon all
10:56
Speaker 2: of us and Democratic politicians that when Republicans anywhere in
10:58
Speaker 2: the country, whether they're trying to pass it at the
11:00
Speaker 2: state level or the county level or in a neighborhood,
11:04
Speaker 2: try to pass some extreme abortion law that we call
11:07
Speaker 2: it out and draw attention to it and use it
11:09
Speaker 2: to point out the dangerous extremism on that side.
11:13
Speaker 3: Yeah, agreed.
11:15
Speaker 1: Alec Logey asks, I often forgot split ticket voters exist,
11:19
Speaker 1: but who are they?
11:20
Speaker 3: What are they thinking? Do you know what they're thinking, Dan?
11:25
Speaker 2: I do not. I would like to just meet the
11:30
Speaker 2: small handful of Kerry Lake, Mark Kelly voters and just
11:33
Speaker 2: see like what they were thinking.
11:35
Speaker 3: I mean, we know there were a lot, right?
11:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, there were some. I think there were fewer than
11:43
Speaker 2: we thought. going into this, right? We thought that there
11:46
Speaker 2: could be huge, gigantic gaps between, you know, Kemp and
11:50
Speaker 2: Warnock and all of that. But there certainly were some.
11:54
Speaker 2: And so I think there are two groups of split
11:55
Speaker 2: ticket voters that are worth thinking about. One are the
11:58
Speaker 2: people who actually voted because who were presented with a
12:03
Speaker 2: choice between a completely extreme Republican candidate and one part
12:08
Speaker 2: of the ticket running against a broadly acceptable Democrat and
12:13
Speaker 2: And then a more appealing Republican candidate on the other part,
12:17
Speaker 2: and they did split their ticket. I think Pennsylvania and
12:19
Speaker 2: Georgia are the two examples where there were the most
12:21
Speaker 2: of those. And you can sort of see how some
12:24
Speaker 2: of those people may have made those decisions where they're like,
12:27
Speaker 2: I am a Republican, but I just cannot vote for
12:30
Speaker 2: Doug Mastroianno. Oz is kind of a weirdo. He's got
12:34
Speaker 2: weird taste in vegetables, but he's more of a Republican
12:37
Speaker 2: than I'm comfortable with than the guy hanging out on
12:40
Speaker 2: anti-Semitic websites. Same thing in Georgia, where Hershel Walker was
12:44
Speaker 2: just a bridge too far. And Donald Trump helped. The
12:50
Speaker 2: only candidate he helped win was Brian Kemp by opposing him.
12:53
Speaker 2: And so that helped there. The other split-take voters are
12:56
Speaker 2: the people who voted for Democrats now, who will be
12:59
Speaker 2: open to voting for Republicans in 2024. Because as we know,
13:03
Speaker 2: three-quarters of the people who voted for Trump in 16
13:07
Speaker 2: or did not vote in 16, who then voted for
13:08
Speaker 2: Democrat in 18, three quarters of them were very open
13:12
Speaker 2: to voting for Trump up until a couple of weeks
13:13
Speaker 2: before the election in 2020.
13:14
Speaker 1: The other thing we don't know about the split ticket
13:17
Speaker 1: voters is if they actually split their ticket. And by that,
13:20
Speaker 1: I mean, so you go, you have your ballot and
13:25
Speaker 1: you're like, okay, I'm going to vote for Dr.
13:28
Speaker 3: Oz.
13:29
Speaker 1: I cannot vote for Doug Mastriano. but I also can't
13:32
Speaker 1: vote for Josh Shapiro, so I'm just going to leave
13:34
Speaker 1: it blank. Or did they actually cross over and vote
13:38
Speaker 1: for the other party? And you don't really know that.
13:41
Speaker 1: What we do know is that, like, you know, J.D.
13:43
Speaker 1: Vance got a couple hundred thousand votes less than Mike DeWine.
13:46
Speaker 1: Sununu got, you know, tens of thousands of votes more
13:49
Speaker 1: than Boldik, right?
13:50
Speaker 3: And on and on and on.
13:51
Speaker 1: So there are a good number of people that did this.
13:53
Speaker 1: You just don't know if they actually crossed over and
13:55
Speaker 1: voted for the other party or left it blank.
13:57
Speaker 3: And I just think the lesson here is.
14:01
Speaker 3: Voters are complicated. People are complicated.
14:04
Speaker 1: And the reason that you don't give up on persuading
14:07
Speaker 1: people is because you don't know what.
14:10
Speaker 3: Kind of weirdos are out there. You don't know.
14:14
Speaker 1: You don't know who's going to maybe maybe this person's
14:17
Speaker 1: excited for Carrie Lake and you can't get them to
14:19
Speaker 1: avoid voting for Carrie Lake. But you can pick up
14:21
Speaker 1: that Mark Kelly vote. And that's still important to get
14:24
Speaker 1: that Mark Kelly vote.
14:25
Speaker 2: You know, there are a lot of people at the
14:27
Speaker 2: highest levels of the Democratic Party who think you would
14:29
Speaker 2: make a great candidate for something one day, but you.
14:32
Speaker 3: Might have just.
14:34
Speaker 2: That was you burning the bridge in front of you.
14:38
Speaker 2: Who knows what those weirdos think?
14:40
Speaker 3: You think it's the first time?
14:43
Speaker 1: You know, you know, we say here it's recorded and
14:45
Speaker 1: people have it forever. OK, so Rita K asks, we
14:50
Speaker 1: know the polls are flawed. Should we still take presidential
14:53
Speaker 1: approval ratings seriously? And similarly, Ash Van Dyke on Instagram asks,
14:57
Speaker 1: how are presidential approval ratings calculated?
14:59
Speaker 3: Is it similar to polls?
15:01
Speaker 2: Okay, I'll take the second question first. It's not just
15:05
Speaker 2: similar to polls. It is a poll where they ask
15:08
Speaker 2: the people, do you approve or disapprove of the president?
15:12
Speaker 2: Some cases, you rank it on a scale of four,
15:15
Speaker 2: strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove. And the
15:21
Speaker 2: presidential approval rating in that poll is just as accurate
15:24
Speaker 2: as the overall poll. So in some cases, that may
15:28
Speaker 2: mean incredibly inaccurate. But like with all of these polling results,
15:35
Speaker 2: it's important, I think, to not take any one poll
15:38
Speaker 2: as correct. You want to look at the average of
15:41
Speaker 2: all of the polls. And what's really important presidential approval
15:45
Speaker 2: rating is trajectory, not level. for two reasons. One, is
15:49
Speaker 2: it going up steadily? Is it going down? Or has
15:51
Speaker 2: it been flat for a long period of time?
15:54
Speaker 3: And it.
15:56
Speaker 2: Is just unfair to compare current presidents to previous presidents
15:59
Speaker 2: because with every passing presidency, we become more polarized, which
16:03
Speaker 2: means fewer numbers of the out party are willing to
16:06
Speaker 2: say they support or approve of the president of the
16:09
Speaker 2: other party. And so just your ceiling comes down to
16:14
Speaker 2: below 50 in some cases, right? Where it's just, it's very, very,
16:17
Speaker 2: very hard to have a number. So even if Biden,
16:21
Speaker 2: they used to say, if you're under 50, then the
16:23
Speaker 2: party's going to do terribly in the midterms. Well, Biden
16:25
Speaker 2: just did incredibly well at 42 in traditional polls and 45,
16:30
Speaker 2: I think it was, in the exit polls, because 45
16:33
Speaker 2: is sort of the new 50, perhaps, right? It's just,
16:37
Speaker 2: we're not measuring it. There's an apples to orange situation happening.
16:40
Speaker 3: Yeah.
16:41
Speaker 1: But I will say, there were a bunch of these
16:42
Speaker 1: questions And I can tell that what's behind these questions
16:44
Speaker 1: is like, well, the polls were all wrong. So maybe
16:48
Speaker 1: all of these polls showing that President Biden is in
16:50
Speaker 1: the low 40s are wrong. And I would offer some
16:54
Speaker 1: caution on that because, first of all, the polling averages,
16:59
Speaker 1: when all was said and done, the polling averages underestimated
17:02
Speaker 1: Democrats by one to one and a half points.
17:05
Speaker 3: That is not that much of a miss at all. No,
17:08
Speaker 3: it's not a miss.
17:09
Speaker 2: It is not a miss. That is a correct poll.
17:11
Speaker 3: That is a correct poll.
17:12
Speaker 1: The averages, even skewed as they were with all those
17:17
Speaker 1: dumpster fire Republican polls, still had it pretty close, right? Also,
17:23
Speaker 1: Trump's approval rating in the 2020 exit poll was just
17:28
Speaker 1: about the same as his vote share, right? Which is
17:31
Speaker 1: a good indicator. So President Biden's approval rating was 44%
17:36
Speaker 1: in the exit poll. In most of the swing states,
17:39
Speaker 1: it was 40%, 40, 41%. So that, of course, that
17:44
Speaker 1: approval could rise. You imagine the man runs an entire
17:48
Speaker 1: presidential campaign with hundreds of millions of dollars of ads.
17:51
Speaker 1: The economy proves it could go up to 45. And
17:53
Speaker 1: you're right, 45, 46, 47. Maybe that's the new 50.
17:56
Speaker 1: But again, you know, it's a two-person race. You got
17:59
Speaker 1: to hit that 50 and vote share. So we'll see.
18:03
Speaker 1: What I don't want people to do, it's not to say, like, oh,
18:06
Speaker 1: everything's bad or everything's good. It's just to say that, like,
18:09
Speaker 1: because there were a few misses... in certain states and
18:12
Speaker 1: because the narrative got out of hand about the red wave,
18:16
Speaker 1: don't just look at data and throw it away because
18:19
Speaker 1: the polling averages were pretty close. And so when you
18:21
Speaker 1: see President Biden's approval rating, you should say that it's
18:23
Speaker 1: a fairly, it's in the ballpark of what people actually
18:26
Speaker 1: think about. Jane Peterson asks, how much of the midterms
18:38
Speaker 1: result is due to actual Democratic Party strategy versus demographic change?
18:42
Speaker 1: Are Dems doing a thorough enough self-evaluation for 2024?
18:48
Speaker 2: This one's slightly complicated. All of the things you asked
18:52
Speaker 2: are true. The Republican Party made a series of grievous errors,
18:58
Speaker 2: both in terms of pushing through the courts this incredibly
19:01
Speaker 2: extreme policy by overturning Roe v. Wade, and then double, triple, quadruple,
19:06
Speaker 2: quadrupling down it all across the country. They then made
19:10
Speaker 2: that problem even worse by nominating incredibly extreme candidates who
19:15
Speaker 2: believed in conspiracy theories and the big lie and all
19:17
Speaker 2: of those things. Democrats took that political environment and they
19:20
Speaker 2: ran a series of excellent campaigns to play their hand
19:25
Speaker 2: very well. There's no question about that. This is incredibly close, right?
19:29
Speaker 2: So it seems to be like this exact thing worked
19:32
Speaker 2: or this exact thing put us at the top. These
19:34
Speaker 2: are dynamic enterprises. There's a lot of nuance here. But
19:38
Speaker 2: we can't live in a world where Democrats always screw
19:40
Speaker 2: up and when Democrats win, it's Republicans' fault. Both things
19:44
Speaker 2: are true. Democrats ran really good campaigns and the candidates
19:47
Speaker 2: who won ran smart. well-organized, well-funded strategic races to win.
19:53
Speaker 2: Are we doing enough of a thorough self-examination? Too early
19:57
Speaker 2: to say. I think we do have to recognize that
20:01
Speaker 2: manifest in these results, as positive they were, are some
20:04
Speaker 2: long-term challenges that are going to come to the forefront
20:07
Speaker 2: as soon as 2024. both in terms of what our
20:10
Speaker 2: coalition looks like, how narrow the electoral map currently is.
20:14
Speaker 2: Because if you look at these results and you think
20:15
Speaker 2: about 2024 map, we have zero margin of error. Yeah.
20:19
Speaker 2: Texas has paused in its movement blue or maybe even
20:23
Speaker 2: taken a couple steps back. Ohio is incredibly red. Iowa
20:27
Speaker 2: is very red. North Carolina has been stuck for federal
20:31
Speaker 2: races in a state of stasis for 12, you know,
20:33
Speaker 2: 14 years now. Florida, incredibly red. So we'd have to
20:36
Speaker 2: win every single state that Biden won, most of them
20:39
Speaker 2: by less than one half of a percent, to get
20:41
Speaker 2: over 270. And that is, as we sit here today,
20:43
Speaker 2: the only path you really have almost no states to lose.
20:46
Speaker 2: And so we're going to have to figure that out.
20:49
Speaker 2: These states can become available to us, particularly in North Carolina,
20:52
Speaker 2: if we can readjust our coalition to include a larger
20:57
Speaker 2: share of working class voters of all races.
21:01
Speaker 3: Politics is so calcified.
21:04
Speaker 1: And the electorate is so evenly divided between Democrats and
21:09
Speaker 1: Republicans that 2024 is going to be close no matter
21:13
Speaker 1: who is at the top of the ticket. Just saying
21:16
Speaker 1: it now, it's going to be close. Like you said,
21:19
Speaker 1: the results of this election led to that conclusion. The
21:23
Speaker 1: results of 2020, when Joe Biden won by only 40,000
21:28
Speaker 1: votes across three states, even though he won by the
21:31
Speaker 1: popular vote by more, right? And so, like, 2018 was
21:35
Speaker 1: fairly close. We've now had three incredibly close elections despite
21:39
Speaker 1: a pandemic, massive civil rights protests, everything that has happened.
21:46
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, right? We have still had these incredibly close elections.
21:49
Speaker 1: And so, therefore, of course, self-reflection is important. I would
21:53
Speaker 1: start with the strategy followed by a lot of these
21:57
Speaker 1: winning campaigns. Like, I think the victory in this midterm
21:59
Speaker 1: belongs to, like, Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro and Mark
22:03
Speaker 1: Kelly and John Fetterman and Raphael Warnock and all of
22:06
Speaker 1: these Democrats who ran statewide in very close, evenly divided
22:12
Speaker 1: purple states. Look at their strategies. Look at their messaging.
22:16
Speaker 1: Look at how they did it. Look at the ads
22:18
Speaker 1: they ran. Look at how they made news. Like these
22:20
Speaker 1: are the people that are going to tell us how
22:22
Speaker 1: to win in a very narrowly divided electorate. And like, yeah,
22:28
Speaker 1: maybe Republicans will continue to run lunatics who are unacceptable
22:33
Speaker 1: to most of the electorate, to most independents, and to
22:36
Speaker 1: even some Republicans, and we'll all be fine. But maybe
22:39
Speaker 1: they'll smarten up.
22:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, we can't count on that.
22:42
Speaker 1: Maybe they'll run people who are extreme right-wing candidates, but
22:44
Speaker 1: not as obvious in their lunacy. You know, they might
22:49
Speaker 1: do that, and if they do do that, then we're
22:51
Speaker 1: going to have to be fucking smart, and we are
22:52
Speaker 1: going to have to do some self-reflection, because guess what?
22:55
Speaker 1: The turnout in 2024 that changes is you do get
22:58
Speaker 1: a whole bunch more non-college voters into the electorate in
23:02
Speaker 1: a presidential year. You get people who aren't paying as
23:04
Speaker 1: close attention to politics, non-college voters, low information voters, they
23:08
Speaker 1: all come into the electorate in 2024. And in some
23:12
Speaker 1: cases that helps Democrats, but in some cases it hurts us.
23:15
Speaker 1: So we really have to be thinking about how to
23:19
Speaker 1: make sure that we do better in 2024.
23:23
Speaker 2: Let me just put it this way. I want to
23:24
Speaker 2: just put in perspective how close the last two presidential
23:27
Speaker 2: elections were, which is both of them were decided by
23:32
Speaker 2: a group of people, smaller the number of people who
23:35
Speaker 2: attend a major Big Ten college football game every Saturday.
23:39
Speaker 3: Yeah.
23:40
Speaker 2: Like, that's just how close this is. I mean, that's
23:42
Speaker 2: not how close it is nationally, but when you put
23:44
Speaker 2: it through the prism of the Electoral College and the Senate,
23:47
Speaker 2: that's how close it is.
23:48
Speaker 3: Yeah.
23:48
Speaker 1: And I just, again, this is all to just say, like,
23:52
Speaker 1: the red wave narrative was, like, just got way out
23:55
Speaker 1: of hand in the week, the couple weeks before the election.
23:58
Speaker 3: Yeah.
23:58
Speaker 1: And it is very satisfying to dunk on pundits and
24:03
Speaker 1: media types and Republicans were wrong. I'm just saying like,
24:06
Speaker 1: you know, dunking is fine, but also like the focus
24:12
Speaker 1: should be on, okay, how do we win next time around?
24:16
Speaker 1: How do we make sure that we win? Because it's
24:19
Speaker 1: not a decisive victory by any means here. And that's
24:22
Speaker 1: not our fault. That's just because that's the way the
24:23
Speaker 1: electorate is. That's just the world that we're living in
24:25
Speaker 1: right now. So we got to, you know, buckle down.
24:29
Speaker 1: Nick on Twitter asks, should I want, here we go,
24:31
Speaker 1: should I want Trump or DeSantis or someone else, though
24:35
Speaker 1: that seems doubtful, as the 2024 opponent?
24:37
Speaker 3: Who do you see as more beatable?
24:40
Speaker 2: I mean, you were playing a dangerous game, my friend.
24:45
Speaker 2: It's like they would both be fucking terrible and both
24:48
Speaker 2: of them could win, right? Any Republican nominated in a
24:53
Speaker 2: presidential election will have a very legitimate shot at winning,
24:56
Speaker 2: whether that is Trump, that is DeSantis, that is Nikki Haley,
25:00
Speaker 2: that is Greg Gutfeld, who for some reason I've nominated
25:03
Speaker 2: for presidency.
25:04
Speaker 3: Yeah, wow. Gutfeld in 24.
25:07
Speaker 2: I'm just picking people.
25:09
Speaker 3: Are you hoping he leaves the five so you can join?
25:12
Speaker 2: Just Juan Williams has been holding that seat, keeping that
25:14
Speaker 2: seat warm for me for years. I don't think he's
25:18
Speaker 2: on there anymore. I don't even know who.
25:19
Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, he's got his own show. Isn't Jesse Waters
25:21
Speaker 1: the five? Elijah would be correcting me right now.
25:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, there is a putative Democrat on the
25:26
Speaker 2: five at all times, I think. It's four against one.
25:30
Speaker 2: But I think, so I'll try to give this like
25:32
Speaker 2: a serious answer. We don't really know who would be
25:35
Speaker 2: more electable. Through the prism of this election, which is
25:39
Speaker 2: an imperfect model for 2024, there is a lesson that
25:43
Speaker 2: is borne out by long-term political science, which is, more
25:47
Speaker 2: extreme candidates tend to lose more often. And Trump, I
25:53
Speaker 2: don't know, the candidates that were most like Trump, who
25:55
Speaker 2: were closest to Trump, who picked up on Trump's favorite
25:58
Speaker 2: lies and conspiracy theories in his rhetoric and political style,
26:01
Speaker 2: lost in this election. Of the 16 candidates that he
26:07
Speaker 2: endorsed in the six battleground states for statewide office, Senate, governor,
26:12
Speaker 2: and secretary of state, 13 of them lost, two of
26:14
Speaker 2: them won, Ron Johnson and Joe Lombardo, and one of
26:19
Speaker 2: them is headed to a runoff. So there's a very
26:21
Speaker 2: clear message about the sort of candidates that are associated
26:24
Speaker 2: with Trumpism who lost in this election. Now, we could
26:27
Speaker 2: be in a very different political environment next time around.
26:30
Speaker 2: So we don't really know. But the Trump model has
26:35
Speaker 2: not worked for anyone other than Trump. And we should
26:37
Speaker 2: be clear, he almost won last time.
26:40
Speaker 1: Well, and I will also, you know, you mentioned political
26:43
Speaker 1: science research. There's also some because I can imagine people saying,
26:46
Speaker 1: more extreme candidate? Then how did Trump win in 2016?
26:50
Speaker 1: Political science, a lot of research shows that a significant
26:54
Speaker 1: number of voters who cast their ballots for him did
26:57
Speaker 1: not see Donald Trump in 2016 as extreme as other
27:01
Speaker 1: Republicans on certain issues. And it was not immigration, that's
27:07
Speaker 1: for sure. But on things like, you know, he said
27:10
Speaker 1: he wouldn't cut entitlements. He said he wanted a tax
27:12
Speaker 1: hedge fund. You know, all of it was bullshit. But, again,
27:16
Speaker 1: in 2020, that wasn't as much the case because people
27:18
Speaker 1: saw that he was president for four years, so they
27:20
Speaker 1: got to know him a little bit. But in 2016,
27:22
Speaker 1: he wasn't seen as extreme as other Republicans. I did
27:26
Speaker 1: a quick, like, case for Trump, case for DeSantis.
27:28
Speaker 2: Oh, nice.
27:30
Speaker 1: On who's more beatable. Because this is what people want
27:32
Speaker 1: to hear, right? And I'm not making predictions, but I
27:34
Speaker 1: feel like we can at least, as we're, if just
27:38
Speaker 1: you and I were talking about this, this is how
27:39
Speaker 1: we talk about it. So, the case for Trump being
27:42
Speaker 1: more beatable is... Everyone knows who he is. Everyone has
27:45
Speaker 1: an opinion of him. And for most people, that opinion
27:49
Speaker 1: is that he's not fit for the presidency. That's just
27:51
Speaker 1: the baseline. And like everyone in the electorate has made
27:54
Speaker 1: up their mind. It's hard to see how that changes, right?
27:56
Speaker 1: Like would people who voted against Trump when he was
27:59
Speaker 1: an incumbent president four years ago now decide to vote
28:03
Speaker 1: for him, especially if he's running against the exact same candidate?
28:08
Speaker 3: Hard to see that. But you don't know.
28:10
Speaker 1: I think the case for DeSantis is being more beatable.
28:14
Speaker 1: Trump has been able to turn out voters in 16
28:16
Speaker 1: and 20 who tend to not vote for other Republicans
28:19
Speaker 1: and tend to have just not turned out in presidential
28:22
Speaker 1: elections before. It's unclear if DeSantis or any other Republican
28:27
Speaker 1: but Trump can get these voters. I also think that
28:30
Speaker 1: DeSantis will not emerge from a primary with Donald Trump unscathed.
28:36
Speaker 1: Donald Trump will make his life a living hell even
28:39
Speaker 1: after he gets beaten by Ron DeSantis. And I also
28:43
Speaker 1: think there is a chance to define DeSantis as extreme
28:46
Speaker 1: in a way that Trump didn't seem in 2016, because
28:50
Speaker 1: DeSantis has taken so many positions that are in line
28:53
Speaker 1: with the far right of the Republican Party.
28:55
Speaker 3: So that's my case for both of them.
28:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it is for the to respond to
29:00
Speaker 2: your Trump case for a second. I agree with everything
29:02
Speaker 2: you said. What he would need to win would be
29:06
Speaker 2: a political environment where Democrats did not turn out those
29:09
Speaker 2: surge voters who came out in 18 and 20. This
29:13
Speaker 2: election suggests that even without Trump on the ballot, many
29:16
Speaker 2: of them would come out. Or a third party candidate,
29:19
Speaker 2: which is how he won in 16, a series of
29:21
Speaker 2: third party candidates who are bringing his win number closer
29:23
Speaker 2: to at 46 instead of 50. DeSantis, if he is
29:30
Speaker 2: able to run as generic non-Trump Republican in a bad
29:36
Speaker 2: political environment for Democrats, he could very easily win. Any
29:38
Speaker 2: Republican could win in that situation. It is the Brian Kemp.
29:41
Speaker 2: And he could emerge from a– there are two ways
29:43
Speaker 2: in which the Trump primary plays out. One is Trump
29:48
Speaker 2: just savages him. And then after even DeSantis squeaks it
29:51
Speaker 2: through– and DeSantis is sort of a stand-in for any
29:54
Speaker 2: number of Republicans here. But you know, savages them and
29:57
Speaker 2: then just savage, you know, tells his people not to vote,
30:00
Speaker 2: you know, threatens a third party run, just makes his
30:02
Speaker 2: life hell. There is another one, which is the Brian
30:04
Speaker 2: Kemp version of this, where it throws everything at him
30:07
Speaker 2: and he emerges appearing stronger for having beaten Trump and
30:11
Speaker 2: more moderate for having been opposed to Trump. And then
30:13
Speaker 2: every time Trump's attacks him, it becomes a, like a
30:16
Speaker 2: validation of his non-Trumpy, non-MAGA credentials. And he ends up
30:22
Speaker 2: very strong in that situation. But the point is, We're
30:24
Speaker 2: just playing fucking fantasy politics right now. No one really
30:27
Speaker 2: has any idea.
30:30
Speaker 3: All right.
30:30
Speaker 1: Alexander Hochester asks, is there anything that can be done
30:33
Speaker 1: about the extreme amounts of money being spent per campaign?
30:36
Speaker 1: Even when it comes from small donors, it's still extreme
30:39
Speaker 1: and it's just becoming an endless cycle of asks.
30:43
Speaker 2: We need to expand the court and overturn Citizens United or.
30:49
Speaker 2: Rewrite the Constitution to make it specific that freedom of
30:53
Speaker 2: speech does not include campaign spending.
30:56
Speaker 1: Do we have to rewrite the Constitution or expand the
30:58
Speaker 1: court to stop every Democratic campaign from sending those fucking
31:02
Speaker 1: annoying texts?
31:05
Speaker 2: No, that does not. That requires actually something more powerful
31:09
Speaker 2: than the Constitution. Just an act of God is apparently
31:12
Speaker 2: what it takes.
31:14
Speaker 1: Because that is just... I can't. I can't do it anymore.
31:17
Speaker 1: I can't do it one more cycle. I don't think
31:19
Speaker 1: it's useful.
31:20
Speaker 2: I mean.
31:21
Speaker 3: You're not going to convince me that it's useful.
31:23
Speaker 2: There is a Democratic politician who won a campaign eight
31:27
Speaker 2: days prior to us recording this who sent a text
31:30
Speaker 2: asking for money because Donald Trump announced for president the
31:35
Speaker 2: night before.
31:35
Speaker 3: Already won the campaign. Already won the campaign. The campaign
31:38
Speaker 3: was called... The race was called. Like.
31:41
Speaker 2: Four minutes ago, like go have a beer, people. Now,
31:44
Speaker 2: I recognize the campaign is probably in debt, but still,
31:47
Speaker 2: just like if you are going to send out a
31:48
Speaker 2: fundraising text or email right now, it can serve one
31:52
Speaker 2: purpose and one purpose only. It is to help Raphael
31:55
Speaker 2: Warnock in Georgia.
31:57
Speaker 3: Nothing else. Raphael Warnock's text, totally fine. You're the only one.
32:01
Speaker 2: And if you were sending out one of those fucking
32:03
Speaker 2: split things where you say you're raising money for Raphael Warnock,
32:06
Speaker 2: but it's like 20% goes to him and 80% goes
32:08
Speaker 2: to you. Fuck you. That is terrible anyway. It's particularly
32:13
Speaker 2: terrible right now when you don't have a race, people,
32:14
Speaker 2: for at least two years.
32:16
Speaker 3: And don't text me a picture of yourself.
32:20
Speaker 2: Oh, Cory Booker being real. Stop. Like someone can send
32:27
Speaker 2: around a memo about Candace doing B-reels and putting them
32:29
Speaker 2: in fundraising emails as a way to try to ruin
32:31
Speaker 2: the party.
32:35
Speaker 3: I figured that one would get you fired up. All right.
32:37
Speaker 1: Hannah DeGroot asks, please give advice for campaign staff on
32:40
Speaker 1: how to process losing a race.
32:44
Speaker 2: I feel like I should take this one because you've,
32:45
Speaker 2: I think only lost one race in your life and
32:47
Speaker 2: I've lost a shitload.
32:49
Speaker 3: Okay.
32:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, go ahead. Go to the movies, throw your phone
32:55
Speaker 2: in a river, take a break. Do not torture yourself.
33:00
Speaker 2: Do not feel like you have to read all the
33:02
Speaker 2: TikToks about how you lost and how fucking brilliant your
33:05
Speaker 2: lucky opponent who's benefiting from gerrymandering or billions of dollars
33:09
Speaker 2: in PAC money. Just unplug, do something else, travel if
33:16
Speaker 2: you can, take a weekend off, go to the mountains,
33:19
Speaker 2: just get away, unplug, relax. You've earned it. I understand
33:26
Speaker 2: having been in this situation that you– you know, you
33:29
Speaker 2: end the campaign and you have no salary and no
33:31
Speaker 2: job and potentially, and you sometimes have to move back from,
33:33
Speaker 2: you know, some state in the middle of nowhere you've
33:35
Speaker 2: been working for the last couple of years. But if you,
33:38
Speaker 2: if you, and you may have to start working right away,
33:40
Speaker 2: but if you get a chance to unplug, do it,
33:42
Speaker 2: just do not torture yourself. Many great people have worked
33:46
Speaker 2: on many great campaigns and lost and it happens and
33:49
Speaker 2: it's painful, but you are better for it. The party
33:52
Speaker 2: is better for it. The state you worked in is
33:54
Speaker 2: better for it. And When you are ready, dust yourself
33:57
Speaker 2: off and get back out there. But just do not
33:59
Speaker 2: torture yourself.
34:01
Speaker 1: I 100% agree. I completely agree with all of that.
34:04
Speaker 1: And before you do all of that, I think you
34:06
Speaker 1: should go get drunk with all of your campaign friends
34:09
Speaker 1: one last time.
34:10
Speaker 3: Oh, yes. Good point.
34:11
Speaker 2: Yes, it's important to have a party. Those are the
34:12
Speaker 2: best parties. The ones that happen after the losing campaign
34:15
Speaker 2: are fucking wild and amazing and great.
34:17
Speaker 1: I was, uh, when, when John Kerry lost, I was
34:20
Speaker 1: home in Boston, uh, and that's where he sort of
34:23
Speaker 1: gave his concession speech too. But before that it was,
34:26
Speaker 1: I drove home.
34:27
Speaker 3: I was broke.
34:27
Speaker 1: I was so broke. I didn't have money for the
34:31
Speaker 1: toll on the mass pike my way home. And then
34:35
Speaker 1: I was just at my parents' house, like by myself,
34:39
Speaker 1: sort of like watching the, the, the, the thing end.
34:42
Speaker 1: And then finally, like the next day when he gave
34:44
Speaker 1: the concession speech at Faneuil Hall, they had everyone from
34:47
Speaker 1: the campaign go and have like one last night. And
34:49
Speaker 1: that was sort of that party, that gathering was like
34:51
Speaker 1: the closure that I needed. And then after that, everything
34:54
Speaker 1: you said, you just, you reconnect with family and friends
34:57
Speaker 1: who aren't in politics. You don't look at the news
35:00
Speaker 1: and you, exactly, you don't torture yourself. It's great, great advice.
35:03
Speaker 3: All right.
35:04
Speaker 1: Akini asks, how can we help in the Georgia runoff
35:07
Speaker 1: if we don't live in Georgia? Great question. Here's the answer.
35:11
Speaker 1: You can head to votesaveamerica.com. If you want to help out,
35:14
Speaker 1: you can find remote and in-person volunteer opportunities and donate
35:18
Speaker 1: to our Every Last Vote Fund. This fund is going
35:21
Speaker 1: directly to voter mobilization in Georgia. We have a special
35:25
Speaker 1: focus on in-person early voting, vote by mail, and we're
35:28
Speaker 1: going to help increase turnout among young people and voters
35:31
Speaker 1: of color. Please donate now if you can. Warnock needs
35:35
Speaker 1: the money. The Warnock campaign needs the money. All the
35:38
Speaker 1: Republicans who are all fighting each other, they're all getting
35:40
Speaker 1: together They're all getting behind Herschel Walker. It's going to
35:43
Speaker 1: be a lot of money in his campaign. So Warnock
35:46
Speaker 1: needs all the help we can get, both from a
35:48
Speaker 1: donation standpoint and just your time volunteering. I know everyone's tired,
35:52
Speaker 1: but just one more week here.
35:54
Speaker 3: Okay.
35:55
Speaker 1: When we come back, we will take some lighter questions
35:57
Speaker 1: about Taylor Swift, Below Deck, and which book I read
36:01
Speaker 1: this year.
36:10
Speaker 3: Okay. Okay.
36:11
Speaker 1: Uh, we're back with a few more questions. Sarah Danver asks,
36:14
Speaker 1: what's your favorite interview you've done?
36:16
Speaker 2: Do you want me to go first?
36:19
Speaker 3: Yeah.
36:19
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously we have to stipulate that we interviewed
36:21
Speaker 2: Barack Obama twice. He's amazing.
36:24
Speaker 3: Hope change, whatever. Yes.
36:26
Speaker 2: Uh, I would say my favorite one was back in
36:29
Speaker 2: the early days of this podcast when I got to
36:31
Speaker 2: interview Steve Kerr, the coach of the Warriors, which was
36:34
Speaker 2: so much fun. I got to go to a Warriors
36:36
Speaker 2: practice that day. Elijah came with me. Steve Kerr was
36:39
Speaker 2: so smart, so interesting. Every one of the words was
36:42
Speaker 2: so nice and friendly. And it was just like a very,
36:45
Speaker 2: we obviously got to interview a lot of a million inspiring,
36:48
Speaker 2: great politicians, but it was very cool to interview someone
36:51
Speaker 2: from the sports world who was so thoughtful about politics
36:54
Speaker 2: and life and everything else. It was so much fun.
36:57
Speaker 1: Mine was, um, Stephen Colbert for offline. I just think
37:02
Speaker 1: I am like in awe of that man's talent and kindness.
37:07
Speaker 1: Just like, you know, he's, hilarious he's so thoughtful about
37:11
Speaker 1: politics he can talk about politics religion the internet we
37:14
Speaker 1: had this like conversation that spanned everything he was so
37:17
Speaker 1: generous with his time and he was just so he's
37:20
Speaker 1: a fantastic human being and i just had such a
37:23
Speaker 1: good conversation with him all right t pen barwell says
37:27
Speaker 1: i want to hear dan's verdict on midnights.
37:31
Speaker 2: We have done I don't know, 10, 12, 20 of
37:35
Speaker 2: these mailbags over the years. There's always a Taylor Swift question.
37:38
Speaker 2: It has never once been directed.
37:40
Speaker 3: I know.
37:41
Speaker 2: Never once. And so here's what I would say. And
37:44
Speaker 2: I'm going to say, I just, I'm just going to
37:46
Speaker 2: say this carefully for all of the people on the
37:48
Speaker 2: internet and your wife.
37:52
Speaker 3: Right. Yeah. Definitely going to be listening to this.
37:54
Speaker 2: So I have generally in my life never had a
37:57
Speaker 2: strong opinion on Taylor Swift. Like I've heard some of
37:59
Speaker 2: the songs and, But I've never really sat down and
38:03
Speaker 2: listened to the albums. I don't dislike or didn't like.
38:06
Speaker 2: It was just a part of culture I never intersected
38:09
Speaker 2: with in any way, shape, or form. It was not
38:11
Speaker 2: really my type of music. But then this year, Kyla,
38:15
Speaker 2: my four-year-old daughter, has started getting into real music and
38:20
Speaker 2: non-kids music. Congratulations. Yes. And she very much likes Taylor Swift.
38:25
Speaker 2: She likes Shake It Off and Welcome to New York
38:27
Speaker 2: are two songs that she plays on Alexa all the time.
38:30
Speaker 2: And because of that, when Midnight's came out, we started
38:34
Speaker 2: listening to it in the car on the way to
38:36
Speaker 2: school and back and forth because I thought she would
38:40
Speaker 2: like it. B, it's definitely better than Blippi. And I
38:42
Speaker 2: will say, here's my verdict.
38:43
Speaker 3: Everything is better than Blippi.
38:44
Speaker 2: Yes.
38:46
Speaker 3: I like it.
38:47
Speaker 2: It's great. I love the album. I've enjoyed it. I
38:49
Speaker 2: enjoyed listening with her. I've listened to it without her.
38:52
Speaker 2: It's great music for writing the message box. It's great.
38:55
Speaker 2: It is a great album. I've been missing out. all
38:59
Speaker 2: this time. I know you guys just talking Taylor Swift,
39:01
Speaker 2: Taylor Swift, tweeting about Taylor Swift. What does Emily say?
39:03
Speaker 3: All of that.
39:03
Speaker 2: I just wasn't paying attention. And I was missing out.
39:06
Speaker 2: Now I know. It was great.
39:07
Speaker 1: You know, you know, you should also listen to, you
39:10
Speaker 1: should listen to Folklore and Evermore. Folklore is the album
39:13
Speaker 1: that she came out with during the pandemic. And I
39:16
Speaker 1: have found that people who have not been Taylor Swift
39:19
Speaker 1: fans in the past, it's a good sort of on-ramp
39:23
Speaker 1: to Taylor Swift. Because it's a really, I just it's
39:26
Speaker 1: a fantastic album it's how Cody got Cody became a
39:28
Speaker 1: big Swifty listen to listening to folklore it's a.
39:32
Speaker 2: It's a giant departure for me because basically all the
39:34
Speaker 2: music I listen to my entire life has been hip-hop
39:37
Speaker 2: so this is like the entire like I'm in like
39:39
Speaker 2: a whole new world it was like the previous Like,
39:43
Speaker 2: go-to message box writing albums this year were the new
39:47
Speaker 2: Kendrick album and the new Vince Staples album, and now
39:49
Speaker 2: it's Midnight's. I don't even know what the fuck happened.
39:50
Speaker 3: Very different. Very different sounds. All right.
39:53
Speaker 1: Dave, and a lot of you asked, were you able
39:55
Speaker 1: to snag Taylor Swift tickets? Thanks to Hannah Vitor, who yesterday, like,
40:02
Speaker 1: she had a whole bunch of appointments and things to do. She, like,
40:04
Speaker 1: dragged her laptop around, and she got tickets to the
40:08
Speaker 1: Vegas show, which is at the end of March.
40:11
Speaker 3: Hero. Whoa. That is.
40:13
Speaker 2: So all four of you are going?
40:15
Speaker 3: I think she got to come. Yeah. Well, we'll see.
40:17
Speaker 3: I don't know if Tommy's definitely in. I'm in.
40:19
Speaker 2: Okay.
40:20
Speaker 3: Yeah.
40:20
Speaker 1: We'll see if we get Tommy to come. But I think, yeah,
40:22
Speaker 1: I think she got a bunch of tickets. So that's
40:23
Speaker 1: pretty exciting for Hannah.
40:26
Speaker 3: Here's the question.
40:26
Speaker 1: Cheryl Darby asked Dan for book recommendations and me for
40:30
Speaker 1: television show recommendations because she clearly knows better. We were
40:35
Speaker 1: also both asked which reality shows we watch. And there
40:38
Speaker 1: were a lot of below deck questions for Dan, including...
40:42
Speaker 1: Which member of the GOP would make the worst primary
40:45
Speaker 1: charter guest, and why is it Paul Ryan?
40:48
Speaker 2: Okay, we're going to start with that one.
40:49
Speaker 3: So you give me all of them.
40:50
Speaker 2: Okay, we're going to start with the Paul Ryan one first. Now,
40:55
Speaker 2: my feelings on Paul Ryan are well-known, probably too well-known
40:58
Speaker 2: because I often wonder if Paul Ryan were to go missing,
41:00
Speaker 2: whether someone would show up at my house with a
41:01
Speaker 2: badge and ask some questions. But I have to say,
41:05
Speaker 2: while I do think Paul Ryan is one of history's
41:07
Speaker 2: great villains, I think he would be a totally fine
41:10
Speaker 2: below-deck guest. He seems polite. His problem is he's kind
41:16
Speaker 2: of a wimp. He's too polite, right? He will take
41:18
Speaker 2: a lot of shit from Donald Trump and ask for more.
41:20
Speaker 2: And I think he'd be a totally fine, blow-deck jet guest.
41:25
Speaker 2: So I think there are two possible choices to be
41:29
Speaker 2: the Republican who would be the worst primary charter guest.
41:33
Speaker 2: And it's clear the Trump family is obviously one of them, right?
41:36
Speaker 2: They seem– they are obnoxious, demanding– Who knows what sort
41:41
Speaker 2: of international laws that Don Jr. is going to be violating.
41:46
Speaker 2: I'm sure they're really shitty tippers. And then I think
41:49
Speaker 2: Marjorie Taylor Greene would be high on that list too.
41:51
Speaker 2: I just don't think you'd want to be trapped on
41:52
Speaker 2: a boat with her for two or three days. That
41:55
Speaker 2: doesn't seem great. So either one of those would be,
41:58
Speaker 2: I think, much worse than Paul Ryan.
42:00
Speaker 3: I can't believe you didn't say Ted Cruz.
42:02
Speaker 2: You know, Ted Cruz is– that's true. Ted Cruz is
42:05
Speaker 2: another option.
42:08
Speaker 3: Few human beings more odious.
42:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess that's a good guess. Ted Cruz would be...
42:15
Speaker 2: I mean, look, there aren't a lot of good answers
42:17
Speaker 2: in this part.
42:17
Speaker 3: No, that's true.
42:18
Speaker 2: Let me go out to sea with Chris Sununu. I
42:21
Speaker 2: don't know. Yeah, no, Ted Cruz would be pretty bad.
42:25
Speaker 3: What other reality TV are you guys watching?
42:29
Speaker 2: We have been watching a lot of... sort of blow
42:36
Speaker 2: deck so because we're blow there are so many blow
42:38
Speaker 2: decks right now i can't keep up there's blow deck
42:39
Speaker 2: blow deck mediterranean blow deck sailing at they just did
42:42
Speaker 2: blow deck down under about australia and just came up
42:45
Speaker 2: with blow deck adventure which just takes place in norway
42:47
Speaker 2: for reasons i don't fully understand i can't keep up
42:49
Speaker 2: with all of that wow uh there's so much blow
42:51
Speaker 2: deck it's it's like basically then it's like the real
42:53
Speaker 2: housewives franchise but on a boat um we have also
42:57
Speaker 2: been watching like Southern charm, winter house, summer house, like
43:03
Speaker 2: that whole genre of Bravo shows, which are really something
43:08
Speaker 2: to see. Um, you know, I just say it's like,
43:10
Speaker 2: and now we're like, they're the Bravo now does this thing.
43:13
Speaker 2: I guess maybe they've always done. I just didn't notice
43:15
Speaker 2: before is where you can, it never stops. The, like
43:18
Speaker 2: the bull, there was always a blow deck on blow
43:20
Speaker 2: deck med ends. Uh, and then the next week blow
43:23
Speaker 2: deck sailing out starts. summer house ends, Southern charm starts,
43:27
Speaker 2: then winter house. Then we're right back again. You just can't,
43:30
Speaker 2: you're stuck with these people all the time. Um, like that,
43:34
Speaker 2: that's it. And then we started watching, um, you know, we, the,
43:38
Speaker 2: this absurd show on Netflix called buying Beverly Hills, which is.
43:42
Speaker 3: A, I was just, I was, we have to, I mean, a.
43:47
Speaker 2: Reality show featuring Lisa Renna's husband. And no, sorry, I
43:51
Speaker 2: said that wrong. Oh my God. I'm going to be
43:52
Speaker 2: booted off the Bravo verse. Uh, Kyle Richards' husband and
43:56
Speaker 2: daughter selling real estate, high-end real estate in Beverly Hills.
43:59
Speaker 2: I don't really know what we're doing with our lives.
44:02
Speaker 1: It is. I can't even talk about that show. We
44:05
Speaker 1: watched a couple episodes and it was just horrifying to me.
44:08
Speaker 3: It's better than Selling Sunset, in my opinion.
44:11
Speaker 1: See, Emily, I did not want to watch Selling Sunset
44:15
Speaker 1: and we started watching Buying Beverly Hills and Emily was like,
44:19
Speaker 1: Just watch Selling Sunset because I think it's much better
44:21
Speaker 1: than buying Beverly Hills.
44:23
Speaker 3: And I was like, you know what? I don't need
44:24
Speaker 3: another one of these.
44:25
Speaker 2: I like the ins and outs of the real estate business,
44:28
Speaker 2: which is why I like Million Dollar Listing. I want
44:30
Speaker 2: to see the bid. I want to know how long
44:31
Speaker 2: they're going to be in escrow, the closing time. Selling Sunset,
44:35
Speaker 2: it's very real estate adjacent.
44:37
Speaker 3: Okay.
44:38
Speaker 1: And I have also completely avoided all the Housewives shows
44:43
Speaker 1: up until this year when Emily made me watch an
44:46
Speaker 1: episode of Real Housewives of Beverly Hills and I was
44:50
Speaker 1: appalled but then it was like watching a car wreck
44:53
Speaker 1: and I ended up watching the whole season and by
44:55
Speaker 1: the end I was like oh I have I not
44:57
Speaker 1: only have to watch the final episode I have to
44:59
Speaker 1: watch the reunion.
45:00
Speaker 2: Oh you all you mean all three parts of the
45:02
Speaker 2: reunion yes absolutely you do.
45:04
Speaker 1: And then we'll sit there and I was like who's
45:05
Speaker 1: your favorite character I'm like there's no favorite this is appalling.
45:10
Speaker 2: But you can't you can't avert your eyes It's unbelievable.
45:14
Speaker 3: Unbelievable.
45:15
Speaker 2: Same way I sucked in and this is where I am.
45:17
Speaker 2: It's like sports. Every once in a while, we'll get
45:20
Speaker 2: some prestige TV and then just more rich people doing
45:23
Speaker 2: dumb shit.
45:25
Speaker 3: Erika Jayne, she's trying to keep the earrings. Give the
45:27
Speaker 3: earrings back. Come on.
45:29
Speaker 2: I mean, she's been involved in a real legal drama
45:31
Speaker 2: for a long time.
45:31
Speaker 3: There's a lot of crime involved in this. I was
45:34
Speaker 3: not expecting. I probably should have. Should we?
45:37
Speaker 2: I mean, did you watch Real Housewives? Check out Real
45:39
Speaker 2: Housewives of New Jersey when Donald Trump had to deport
45:42
Speaker 2: Teresa Giudice's husband for committing crimes.
45:45
Speaker 3: Any other real television shows you guys are watching?
45:49
Speaker 2: I mean, we do love Yellowstone and that is back
45:51
Speaker 2: this week. Um, we white Lotus season two is excellent.
45:56
Speaker 3: White Lotus. That's what we're.
45:58
Speaker 1: Yeah. I'm, I'm very excited about white Lotus. The good
46:01
Speaker 1: fight just ended. It was the series finale of good fight.
46:03
Speaker 1: I got into that show and I never watched the
46:05
Speaker 1: good wife. I, the good wife is excellent. I think,
46:09
Speaker 1: I think if you're a fan of pod saving America,
46:11
Speaker 1: you will like the good fight.
46:11
Speaker 2: Yep. All right, let's do books really fast. So I'll do,
46:15
Speaker 2: I'll do three books. Um, that I really love this year.
46:18
Speaker 2: Sea of Tranquility by Emily St. John Mandel, who wrote
46:22
Speaker 2: Station Eleven, which is a book about a pandemic that
46:24
Speaker 2: was phenomenal before the pandemics, but she's just an incredible author.
46:27
Speaker 2: I read everything she writes. Another book called The Devil
46:31
Speaker 2: Takes You Home by a guy named Gabino Iglesias, which
46:34
Speaker 2: is a sort of fantastical crime noir book written that
46:41
Speaker 2: takes place on the Texas-Mexico border that is just great.
46:44
Speaker 2: I just loved it. And then one kid's book recommendation
46:47
Speaker 2: that we have been reading a lot, it's this book
46:51
Speaker 2: series called Me and Mayhem about a little girl who
46:54
Speaker 2: becomes a superhero. Kyla loves it. There's like 14 of
46:58
Speaker 2: them in the series. We read them all the time.
47:00
Speaker 2: We are very in on the adventures of Me and
47:02
Speaker 2: Mayhem and her friends, Allie Oomph and Penn Powers. They're
47:06
Speaker 2: great books. It's like little chapter books for kids around
47:09
Speaker 2: that age, and they're awesome.
47:11
Speaker 3: That's great.
47:12
Speaker 1: What have I read lately? I'm going to give you
47:14
Speaker 1: some offline books. The Chaos Machine by Max Fisher was
47:18
Speaker 1: fantastic about social media, and he did just years of
47:23
Speaker 1: reporting in these tech companies. Dopamine Nation by Anna Lemke,
47:28
Speaker 1: which is about phone addiction and why it's like other addictions.
47:33
Speaker 3: Grace by Cody Keenan.
47:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's important.
47:36
Speaker 3: I know, but I just have to give Cody a
47:38
Speaker 3: plug again. Yes.
47:40
Speaker 1: And the last novel I read, I've already said this
47:43
Speaker 1: on the pod, but The Candy House by Jennifer Egan
47:45
Speaker 1: is fantastic.
47:46
Speaker 3: All right.
47:48
Speaker 1: Mike Carvalho is a Toronto Raptors fan who wants to know,
47:52
Speaker 1: does Dan hate the Raptors? Does he actually kind of
47:55
Speaker 1: like them? Is he completely indifferent? I promise no matter
47:58
Speaker 1: what the answer is, I won't be mad.
48:01
Speaker 3: All right. So Mark will not be mad.
48:02
Speaker 2: Okay. Mark, I want to tell you this. As a
48:05
Speaker 2: general rule when it comes to sports, I do not
48:08
Speaker 2: have hated my heart. I just don't. And I certainly
48:11
Speaker 2: do not have hate for the Toronto Raptors, even though
48:14
Speaker 2: they did famously and infamously beat the Sixers in the
48:18
Speaker 2: playoffs on a buzzer beater from Kawhi Leonard that basically
48:21
Speaker 2: destroyed the franchise for years to come. But, so I
48:25
Speaker 2: do not.
48:25
Speaker 3: I knew there was a but coming.
48:27
Speaker 2: So I'm going to say this. I like the Raptors.
48:30
Speaker 2: I enjoy watching the Raptors. I think Nick Nurse is
48:32
Speaker 2: a great coach. The Raptors are everything I wish the
48:34
Speaker 2: Sixers were. They draft the right players. They run an
48:37
Speaker 2: actual offense. They were great. There are only two teams
48:40
Speaker 2: that I have hate in my heart for, and the
48:42
Speaker 2: Raptors are not one of them. It is the Syracuse Orangemen,
48:45
Speaker 2: because I went to Georgetown University, and it is the
48:48
Speaker 2: Boston Celtics. Apologies to my Boston bros. I don't want
48:52
Speaker 2: to have that hate in my heart. I can't help it.
48:54
Speaker 2: But if you're a Philadelphia 76ers fan starting in the 80s,
48:58
Speaker 2: then you're raised to hate the Celtics. And I've tried.
49:01
Speaker 2: I've tried to do meditation and other things to take
49:04
Speaker 2: that out, but I can't do it.
49:06
Speaker 1: I grew up at such an interesting time to be
49:09
Speaker 1: a Boston fan because it's like when I was a
49:11
Speaker 1: kid we were like like like no one hated Boston
49:16
Speaker 1: teams because we weren't winning everything and then like to
49:18
Speaker 1: now have like there's so much hate for the Patriots here.
49:21
Speaker 3: It's just a weird, it's been a weird transition.
49:24
Speaker 2: I mean, Celtics hate's been around for a long time.
49:26
Speaker 3: For a long time.
49:27
Speaker 2: They were good when you were growing up. But like
49:30
Speaker 2: obviously you were lovable losers for the Red Sox and
49:33
Speaker 2: the Patriots.
49:33
Speaker 3: The Red Sox and the Patriots for a long time.
49:35
Speaker 2: Until you adopted cheating.
49:37
Speaker 3: There we go.
49:38
Speaker 2: Yes.
49:38
Speaker 3: All right.
49:39
Speaker 1: Sarah asks, what do you guys contribute to your Thanksgiving tables?
49:43
Speaker 1: My answer is takes.
49:46
Speaker 3: That's it. Just good conversation from me. Actually, I don't
49:49
Speaker 3: even know if it's all good. Conversation.
49:51
Speaker 1: Because I can't cook anything. I do clean up afterwards.
49:55
Speaker 1: I love doing the dishes. I love cleanliness. I will
49:58
Speaker 1: clean the whole table. I will do all of that.
50:00
Speaker 1: But I'm not great at, I can't really cook.
50:03
Speaker 3: What about you?
50:04
Speaker 2: Well, I cook the turkey. I cook the green bean casserole.
50:07
Speaker 3: Oh my goodness.
50:09
Speaker 2: I cook the mashed sweet potatoes every year.
50:12
Speaker 3: That's a lot.
50:13
Speaker 2: We've hosted at our house the last four years. This year,
50:15
Speaker 2: we are not hosting. We're going to Hallie's aunt's house.
50:19
Speaker 2: So I am contributing pies from a bakery this year.
50:22
Speaker 2: But in general, and I love cooking Thanksgiving dinner. It's
50:25
Speaker 2: one of my favorite things to do.
50:28
Speaker 3: I love eating it. I'm excited. All right.
50:30
Speaker 1: Sharon asks, last question. What are you thankful for this
50:33
Speaker 1: year personally and professionally?
50:35
Speaker 2: Do you want to go first? Sure. Sure.
50:37
Speaker 1: Personally, I am thankful for my wonderful, like joyful son, Charlie.
50:45
Speaker 1: He's just like, I didn't get when parents were like, oh,
50:48
Speaker 1: this is the best age. And now he's like, when
50:51
Speaker 1: he turned two, I'm like, oh yeah, this really is
50:52
Speaker 1: the best age. He's like talking all the time. The
50:55
Speaker 1: other day we like sat there and talked to each
50:57
Speaker 1: other for like a half hour. It's great.
50:59
Speaker 3: I love it.
51:00
Speaker 1: So I'm grateful for him. Grateful for my wife. Grateful
51:02
Speaker 1: that we're healthy. Grateful that like, that we're out of
51:06
Speaker 1: the worst phase of the pandemic and like life has
51:08
Speaker 1: been returning to normal. I'm like very grateful for that. Professionally,
51:12
Speaker 1: I just want to say that I am incredibly grateful
51:15
Speaker 1: for all of you who signed up for Vote Save
51:18
Speaker 1: America and for what you did in this midterm. Just
51:21
Speaker 1: some stats before I let Dan go. In 2022, everyone
51:26
Speaker 1: who participated in Vote Save America, you donated more than $ 5. 3
51:30
Speaker 1: million to towards candidates and grassroots organizations. That's nearly double
51:36
Speaker 1: what you donated in 2018. And that was a year
51:39
Speaker 1: that Democratic enthusiasm was a little bit easier to come by.
51:42
Speaker 1: Nearly 34,000 of you signed up for Midterm Madness. Again,
51:45
Speaker 1: we nearly doubled the 2018 number of volunteers and events.
51:49
Speaker 1: And just so you all know, the single biggest day
51:52
Speaker 1: for volunteer signups was the day of the Dobbs leak.
51:55
Speaker 1: The second biggest day was the day of the Dobbs decision.
51:58
Speaker 1: And the number of volunteers doubled in the months after that.
52:02
Speaker 1: So I want to thank everyone in the Vote Save
52:03
Speaker 1: America community. I want to thank our team at Vote
52:06
Speaker 1: Save America, Shaniqua, EJ, Sarah, Julia, Eric, Dayanita, Tanya, all
52:11
Speaker 1: of our volunteers who worked so hard this midterm season
52:15
Speaker 1: to make Vote Save America what it was. So I
52:17
Speaker 1: am very professionally grateful for that.
52:20
Speaker 2: So personally, I am very grateful for my family. Everyone
52:24
Speaker 2: is healthy and happy. And my brother just moved to
52:27
Speaker 2: the West Coast with his wife and my niece. And
52:30
Speaker 2: so they are closer. Parents are here a lot more.
52:33
Speaker 2: And so we get to see everyone is just like,
52:37
Speaker 2: Kyle is amazing. Jack's amazing. Everything is great. Family wise
52:41
Speaker 2: who could not be happier, you know? And as you said,
52:44
Speaker 2: being like life feels well, not completely normal, a lot
52:48
Speaker 2: more normal than it, than it has for a very
52:50
Speaker 2: long time. And they're like activities for Kyla school and
52:53
Speaker 2: we're seeing things and like being in the classroom, all
52:55
Speaker 2: like life feels really good and professional. It's exactly what
52:59
Speaker 2: you said. It is this incredible. community of people who
53:03
Speaker 2: listen to Pod Save America and other crooked media content
53:06
Speaker 2: and volunteer at Vote Save America. And it's been wonderful
53:10
Speaker 2: in this election cycle that we've gotten out on the
53:12
Speaker 2: road to see them again. I was at a Swing
53:15
Speaker 2: Left bus kickoff the weekend before the election talking to
53:18
Speaker 2: a bunch of people, some of them wearing merch, VSA
53:21
Speaker 2: volunteers from the community who were out there. And it's
53:24
Speaker 2: just like it is this great privilege to be part
53:30
Speaker 2: of this community and be part of this effort. And
53:33
Speaker 2: it's something that I thought, you know, was just unexpected,
53:37
Speaker 2: sort of this unexpected gift, uh, in this next chapter
53:40
Speaker 2: of my life professionally that I'm very grateful for.
53:43
Speaker 3: Absolutely. All right.
53:45
Speaker 1: That's all we got everyone. Uh, enjoy your Thanksgiving this
53:48
Speaker 1: week and we'll talk to you next week.
53:51
Speaker 2: Happy Thanksgiving, everybody.
53:56
Speaker 1: Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. The executive
53:59
Speaker 1: producer is Michael Martinez. Our senior producer is Andy Gardner Bernstein.
54:03
Speaker 1: Our producers are Haley Muse and Olivia Martinez. It's mixed
54:06
Speaker 1: and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis
54:10
Speaker 1: sound engineered the show. Thanks to Hallie Kiefer, Ari Schwartz,
54:13
Speaker 1: Sandy Gerard, Andy Taft, and Justine Howe for production support.
54:16
Speaker 1: And to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Phoebe Bradford, Milo Kim,
54:19
Speaker 1: and Amelia Montu. Our episodes are uploaded as videos at youtube.com
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