Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 478 - 3/26/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 478 - 3/26/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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54321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
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welcome to episode 478 of the all systems go sports betting
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podcast powered by rhythm. I am your host, Josh Applebaum.
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What's going on, everyone? Happy Thirsty Thursday, Another
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day here in the arena, guys. But you know what?
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It is one of the most special days of all time.
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Of course, for me personally. We'll get that here in a second,
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But we have Major League Baseball opening day.
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I know we had Yankees, Giants opening day yesterday.
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I don't know if anyone read the sharp report for visen.com or of
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course followed the ASG best bet picks on Juice Field, but did
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play the Yankees. Nice little 7 nothing win there.
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Good off off to a good start and there is a system play that I
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like on opening day. Taking opening day favorites
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chalks tends to do very, very well on opening day since 2005
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when you are the favorite on opening day, 193 and one 1563
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percent, 6% ROI. So it's kind of like, hey,
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everything you know is starting brand new.
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Usually the chalk has the better starting pitcher, rested
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bullpen, better position players.
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You tend to see chalk do well. So we'll get to that here in a
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second because I do have one Major League Baseball play for
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you today, guys. It's that chalk system.
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It's got a really good bet split and it's personally very, very
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important to me. Again, I'm bearing the lead.
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I think you might know what I'm about to get to here in a
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second. But aside from opening Day, we
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got the return of March Madness. So we do have a four pack of
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Sweet 16 games, guys. I got plays on all four games.
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We got bunch of dogs. I got a favorite.
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We got some sharp line moves, we got some good sharp mush edges
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and rhythm advantages. We'll go through all of the
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March Madness games for tonight as well as a baseball play.
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So usually I say, hey, 3 pack, let's try to go 2 and one.
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We got a 5 pack today where we're living large.
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So let's see if we can go three and two and eek out of winning
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day now before we get to MLB, before we get to college
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basketball. I'm back baby.
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I'm back. And you know what?
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I am a dad, I'm a father. I told you guys this before, but
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I kind of said, hey, you know, I'm, I'll be, you know,
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hopefully being a dad here somewhat soon as we finish up
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the pod. Last week, I went into the
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hospital on Friday and my wife was an absolute champ, was an
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incredible just I can't even tell you the the range of
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emotions and seeing her go through labor, if you know what
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I mean, you know what I mean. But we now have a very, very
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beautiful, absolutely an Angel, beautiful, amazing, healthy is
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it, which is the most important baby girl.
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And her name is Margot Applebaum, like Margot Robbie,
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Margot with AT. But that's one of the names
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where, you know, throughout the nine months, there'd be a name
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that I like that my wife didn't like or a name that she liked
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that I didn't like. And we kind of settled on
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Margot. You know, we were watching a
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movie, Margot Robbie was in it. And we're like, oh, I kind of
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like that name. Oh, I kind of like that name
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too. And it's a little old school,
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somewhat rare. So we now have a baby girl and
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she is now five days old. She was born on Saturday, March
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21st at 6:44 PM, weighing 8 lbs, one ounce and measuring 20.5
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inches. So it was absolutely just the
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most incredible journey of my life.
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I tell you what guys, there was before Margo and now there's
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after Margo because you know, everyone tells you, hey, your
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life changes when we become a parent.
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I've only been a parent for going on five days now, but it
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is just absolutely incredible. I tell you what, just some
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observations. Those of you who have kids,
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you'll be like, OK, maybe this brings back some either good or
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bad memories and maybe you have some tips.
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You always want to shoot my way. You can always send me a direct
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message on Twitter at Josh under score insights.
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But here's a couple things that I've kind of just felt so far
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overcome with emotion. My mom and dad and my in laws
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both visited us right after Margo was born.
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And when I saw my parents walk through that door, it was just
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the tears started flowing. Man, I, I can't describe it,
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just absolutely incredible. And now I'm, I'm in that
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incredible part of life where I am now a parent, but I still
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have my parents. So I'm in that middle stage.
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And if I, if I go any deeper out, I'm going to start crying
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on the pot. Because I tell you what, it's
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been a whirlwind here, but my parents stayed with us the first
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night really helped us out. You know, my mom holding her and
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even my dad, what we watched the Bruins game together and he held
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her. Absolutely incredible.
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And then my in laws, my mother-in-law came over
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yesterday, finally gave me some sleep.
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She's been incredible. And obviously just my wife is
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the hero here. You know, seeing what she went
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through, there was a moment there where the baby was coming
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and you know, she's like, hey, I don't know if I can do this.
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It hurts so much. She's crying.
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And I'm like, you got this babe. And I held her hand.
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She squeezed my hand. You know, I felt like I was a
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coach, you know, like she was Rocky and I was the trainer
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there on the side cheering her on.
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But she did it. She made me so proud.
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She, she gave us our Angel. So it's just unbelievable.
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But I will, I will tell you a couple things that are
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interesting. Again, five days in #1 my
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niece's, you know, when they were born, like I don't want to
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change their diaper. And even my dad told me this and
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I remember him saying it. When it's your kid, it's really
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not a big deal. So changing Margo's diapers, not
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a big deal. We're now very happy every time
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she poops. We have a chart where we put
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the, the time when we start feeding her and then every time
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she poops, we write it down or pees.
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We try to get her, you know, as much milk as possible.
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So right now the, the goal is just surviving and putting on
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weight. So that's been the two main
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focuses here right now. I will tell you the only
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difficult thing, guys, again, this is I, I love being a dad so
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far. It's amazing.
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It's it's even brought me and my wife closer, which is awesome.
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The only thing that's been a struggle is the sleep.
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I must admit to you, my whole life I've been a night owl.
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I like staying up late watching games.
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This has been my life forever. Sleeping in, you know, till 9:10
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AM every morning, That's my life.
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Go to bed at midnight one or 1:00 AM, wake up at 9:10 AM.
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Well, it's been a difficult transition here, basically
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getting far less sleep. We had a really difficult night
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the second night where just it was funny.
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The first day she was born, we spent two days in the hospital.
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She's an Angel. She's in her bassinet.
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We pick her up, she's nice and quiet, making giggles like it.
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It's just perfect night number, or actually I should say the
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first night that we ended up bringing her home, which was
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her, I think her either second or third night, it was just
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really difficult because she just would not stop crying.
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We changed her diaper, we burped her, we carried her, held her,
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sang songs to her, walked around, bounced with her.
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Nothing we did stopped her from crying.
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And there was a point and me and my wife stayed up all night.
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We got literally 0 sleep. I'm not joking to you.
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It's not like we got a 15 minute nap.
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There was 0 sleep. So there's one point in the
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night where like I'm at my wit's end, my wife's at her wit's end
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again. She just went through a car
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crash in her body basically. So she's just trying to recover
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anyway, but we're basically looking at each other.
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It's like 3:00 AM. We're both dying to go to sleep,
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but we can't go to sleep because we can't leave this baby alone
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and we can't, you know, we got to find a way to help her stop
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crying and go to bed. So we didn't sleep all night,
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but we did make it through the night.
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And then my mother-in-law came over and she held the baby for
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like 3 hours and me and my wife slept for three hours.
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And I tell you what, guys, when you're just a regular person and
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you get 3 hours of sleep, you know you're dead, you're a
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zombie. But then again, I'm telling you
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this because this is my experience, but if you're a
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parent, you might probably know what I'm talking about.
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When you get 3 hours of sleep after not sleeping at all,
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that's the best freaking 3 hours of sleep you're ever going to
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have. So I'm feeling a little bit
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rejuvenated. We've had such great support
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from from our family and our parents and, and it's a whole
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new world for me because I am now a dad.
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So it's pretty, pretty incredible.
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I want to thank everybody. I tweeted out a photo at Josh
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under score insights and I got so many people giving me these
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incredible messages of support and congratulations.
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That means so much to me. Guys.
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I really, really, I try to like every, every message.
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I try to message people back. If I haven't, please don't take
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offense. It's been crazy, but just
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posting a photo and seeing the, you know, the engagement, the
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feedback, the support from all you out there, I really, really
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thank you so much. It really, really means so much
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to me. So I could go on all day about
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my new baby girl who I am already deeply in love with.
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But we do have some sports betting to talk about.
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So I just want to mention one thing, guys.
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You know, now that I'm a dad, things are a little bit
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different. So you know, maybe the podcast,
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there'll be a day where there isn't a podcast or there's a
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podcast that is super early in the morning or super late in the
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day. You know, don't be alarmed.
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I just, I got to, I got to take care of my daughter here.
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So you know, something comes up where you know, there isn't a
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pod that day. Don't freak out.
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We just got to make sure that we keep the main thing, the main
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thing, if you know what I'm saying.
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But I will tell you this, I'm excited to get back into sports
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betting because it's something that I love.
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Now, obviously, you know, Margo and my wife are #1 always.
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But when you miss betting, you go a couple days without it, you
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get excited to come back into the arena.
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So now betting for me, I don't know if I'll be able to like
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prior to Margo, I watched every game that I bet on.
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I would stat track them all. You know, I might be missing
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some games here. So there might be games where I
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don't get to sweat or I put in the bed and wake up in the
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morning and check the score and see how it went.
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But again, this is, you know, progressing in life.
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Things change. You got to roll with the
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punches. But hopefully we can continue to
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cash some tickets here in the the post Margo era.
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So let's get after it guys. With that being said, waste no
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further time. Let's talk about these March
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Madness games here for tonight. Now want to mention as always,
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thank you to those of you who tuned into the rhythm rundown
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yesterday, myself, my buddy Kate Harper once again did the
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rundown for rhythm on V on Twitter.com.
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You know, we streamed it live, but we went through all the
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games, all the Sweet 16 games. So if you tuned in, you might
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know where my plays are for today.
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If not, maybe this is new to you, but let's go through each
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game individually and I'll give you all the plays here that I'll
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be sweating. So first one on the board, let's
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go to a 710 tip here. We got Texas playing Purdue.
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Texas comes in 21 and 14 on the year.
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They are the 11 seed, barely made the tournament and they've
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won a couple games outright as a dog.
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They just beat the Zags 74 to 68 in the second round, winning
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outright as a six point neutral side dog.
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Meanwhile, Purdue 29 and 8 on the year, they are the two seed
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just took down Miami 79 to 69 in the second round covered as an 8
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point neutral site favorite. So what do you see across the
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market here? This game opened mostly Purdue
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-7 1/2 neutral court, 7 1/2 point favorite, and the public
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is kind of lean in Texas. It's not the trendiest of all
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time dogs, but right now you're getting a little bit close to
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like 55% of spread bets at DraftKings going Texas.
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And I get it, they've been winning all these games
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outright, so might as well take the points, take the 7 1/2.
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But here's where it gets interesting.
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Even though about 55% of spread bets are on Texas, this line
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isn't down to 7 or 6 1/2. If you look closely, the juice
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liabilities actually on Purdue. Purdue is -7 1/2 around -115 and
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some books even keep creeping up toward -8.
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So this looks to me like a bit of a fade.
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The trendy dog play, public leaning Texas, but juice and
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movement toward Purdue. We get to the splits.
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They look pretty good on the Boilermakers.
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Purdue is getting 46% or 45% of spread bets, 61% of spread
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dollars. At DK go over to Circa, 51% of
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spread bets, 60% of spread dollars.
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So juice, movement and liability toward Purdue, low bets, higher
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dollars at TK and circa on Purdue.
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Ken Palm has Purdue winning by eight points, 82 to 74.
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So not the biggest edge in the world, but you get -7 1/2 Purdue
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wins by 8. Hey, we'll catch that ticket and
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cover that number. Now.
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Purdue has the better offensive efficiency, first in the country
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versus 15th for Texas. Better effective field goal
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percentage, 9th for 71st. Better offensive rebound
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percentage, 19th versus 39th. Better three-point shooting, 8th
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versus 129th. Better defensive efficiency,
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33rd versus 81st. And Purdue commits fewer
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turnovers on offense. They take better care of the
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ball. 18th versus 73rd. So Publix leaning Texas a bit,
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but movement liabilities on Purdue.
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I'm going to feed this trendy dog, guys.
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I got Purdue -7 1/2 rhythm, by the way, has two recommended
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models are actually all three on Purdue, but two of them have
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Purdue -7.9 and -8.1. But the minus 8.1 is a green
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star recommended play. So anytime I get all of my
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models and recommendations lined up on one side with at least one
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green star, that's always a good sign.
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Also, we have a 9%, nothing crazy but a 9% sharp mush edge
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from our friends at Juice Reel also on Purdue.
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So add it all up guys. I'm actually going to fade
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Texas. I know I've seen on Twitter a
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lot of people love Texas and the points here, but I'm going to
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stay true to the data. Lean on rhythm and juice reel.
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I went Texas or sorry I went Purdue -7 1/2 and definitely
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take advantage of odds boost. I notice there's a bunch here
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for MLB as well as college hoops, but I was able to boost
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Purdue -7 1/2 -, 115 at FanDuel to -7 1/2 + 114.
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So if those boosts are available to you, why wouldn't you take
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it? So I'm sweating.
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Purdue -7 1/2 again -115 is pretty much everywhere.
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But again, some looks like they're look like they're going
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8, but plus 1/14. Hopefully a good payout here
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with Purdue. Fingers crossed winning by 8 or
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more. Next one for you on my favorite
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bets tonight, Iowa and Nebraska. A 7:30 PM tip we got Iowa coming
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in 23 and 12 on the year. They are the nine seed.
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Just took down Florida shockingly 73 to 72 in the
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second round they went out right as a 10 1/2 point neutral sight
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dog. Meanwhile, Nebraska 28 and six
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they are the four seed just beat Vandy 7472 in the second round
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one out right as a 1 1/2 point neutral sight dog.
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So we've seen across the market here.
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Will this game opened with Nebraska listed around a
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three-point neutral site favorite and the public says
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Nebraska all day. Remember they were undefeated or
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they 21 and O at one point had a great start to the year.
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They have the better record than the higher seeded team.
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It's a short number. So 68% of spread bats at DK are
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laying it with the Cornhuskers. But here's where it gets good.
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Even though nearly 70% are on Nebraska, Nebraska didn't move
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up -3 to -4 they've actually fallen from -3 down to -1 1/2.
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So why is this line dropping toward Iowa if the public's
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hammering? Nebraska tells me we got smart
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money reverse line movement going in favor of the Hawkeyes.
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Iowa has a great bet against the public value play opportunity
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here because they're only getting about 1/3 of tickets and
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a heavily bet nationally televised primetime game on TBS.
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We look at Circa, I was only getting 27% of spread bets, but
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69% of spread dollars. So a great little bets, higher
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dollar split on on Iowa from our friends out in the desert, the
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sharps at Circa Iowa has the better offensive efficiency,
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25th versus 51st for Nebraska, better effective field goal
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percentage, 18th versus 27th, better free throw shooting, 39th
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versus 75th, better offensive rebound percentage, 171st versus
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311th. And they force more turnovers on
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defense, 15th versus 41st. So I'm going Iowa here.
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It's kind of a blueprint play for me.
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Publix hammering Nebraska, but the lines drop into Iowa.
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I got Iowa plus 2 1/2 -, 112 at Valley Bet a few days ago.
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I don't know if anyone read the Sharp report that I wrote.
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It was kind of an early Sharp report a few days ago, but at
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the time I was 2 1/2, so I jumped on that.
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Maybe you're also holding a 2 1/2.
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If not, you still can get a 2 at Caesar's.
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But a lot of books are 1 1/2. But we do have a 9% sharp mush
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edge from our friends at Juice Reel on Iowa.
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So I went Iowa plus 2 1/2. At least try to get the +2 if
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not plus 1 1/2. Hopefully it won't matter.
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It will be nice if I will won this game straight up.
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Let's go Iowa next one for you, Arkansas, Arizona.
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This is the largest spread of the night and I'm taking the dog
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in the points here. So let's set the stage.
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We got Arkansas coming in 28 and 8 on the year.
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They are the four seed just outlasted high point 94 to 88 in
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the second round. Did not cover though as a 12 1/2
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point neutral site favorite. Meanwhile, Zona 34 and 2, the
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one seed just took down Utah State 78 to 66.
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They did cover as an 11 1/2 point neutral site favorite.
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So to see it across the market here.
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This game opens with Arkansas or sorry, Arizona listed as high as
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a 9 1/2 point neutral site favorite.
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And all movement liability has been downward toward Arkansas
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because Arizona open -9 1/2, they're down to -8 1/2.
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And actually some shops are showing -8 some shops even got
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down to 7 1/2. So all movement movement
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liability open a current has been toward Arkansas.
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So I want to take Arkansas on the points here based on this
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line move. Again, when you get to this time
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of year, these lines are really sharp.
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So if you're moving a point, point and a half, even 2 points,
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the 9 1/2 to 7 1/2 at some shops, that's a pretty big
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number. It's almost like an NFL playoff
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game with a, you know, 1 or 1 1/2 point line move.
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Tells me a lot of money came in, in this case in favor of
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Arkansas. Now Arkansas is a classic dog
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who can score system match 90 points per game.
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So can they win this game? I don't know.
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But I like their chances of keeping it close because they
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can score a lot. Therefore they can increase the
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chances of backdoor covering or keeping pace.
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I got a great coach step for you, Coach Cal John Caliparti.
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John Caliparti in the spot has been really good.
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He's gone 12 and three against the spread in his career in
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Sweet 16 games. He's also been excellent as a
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NCAA Tournament underdog. It almost reminds me of the Mike
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Tomlin dog system, even though we can't sweat that this year
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because he's taking a year off. But Calipari is 8 and two
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against the spread, winning seven of those games outright as
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an NCAA Tournament dog. And Calipari is also seven and O
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against the spread as a March Madness dog of four points or
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more at Kentucky and Arkansas. And if you layer in some of
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Calipari's UMass days, like, you know, I was born in 1987, so I'm
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38 years old, but I do, you know, vaguely remember when
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UMass made the Final Four in 1996.
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So what was I678I was 9 years old.
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So if you go back to his UMass days, he's got some even better
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dog stats. So the combination of the line
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going Arkansas plus these Calipari great dog stats makes
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me even more confident here to go with Arkansas on the points.
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Arkansas is the better effective field goal percentage, 15th
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verse 44th, better free throw shooting 10th versus 44th.
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Let's see or sorry, better three-point shooting 10th verse
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44th, better free throw shooting 81st verse 170th.
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And they don't turn it over as much on offense.
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Actually ranked first in the country at fewest turnovers
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versus 77th for Zona. Lastly, Arkansas, you can get
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them plus 8 1/2 across the market here.
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Again, shop around because there are some eights as well, but
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Rhythm has Arkansas plus 7 1/2. So if Rhythms got a 7 1/2 and we
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can still get an 8 1/2, hopefully that's a good, good
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sharp angle there to go Razorback.
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So I did go Razorbacks plus 8 1/2 last March Madness game for
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tonight before we got four more for tomorrow.
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Illinois, Houston, this one is a very sharp line freeze.
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So Illinois comes in 26 and 8 on the year.
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They are the three seed. Just beat up on VCU 76 to 55 in
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the second round. Covered as a 12 1/2 point
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neutral site favorite. Meanwhile, Houston 30 and six.
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They are the two seed. Just beat up on Texas A&M 88 to
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57 in the second round. Easily covered as a 10 point
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neutral site favorite. So what you seen across the
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market here? Well, this game opened Houston a
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2 1/2 point home favorite, or sorry, that was a slip of the
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tongue. They're a 2 1/2 point neutral
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site favorite. This game is actually being
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played in Houston. So they're a quasi home team.
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Basically what's notable to me is that everyone and their
20:45
mother is on Houston. It's a short number.
20:47
Houston's got the better seating, better record, and
20:50
Houston is basically playing at home.
20:52
So the the crowd will be very, very friendly toward them.
20:54
If you remember that Miami, OH game in the first four that was
20:57
in their backyard and if you remember the crowd, they were
20:59
like insane crowd support for Miami, Ohio.
21:02
So I think the public is thinking, hey, it's a home game.
21:05
It's a short number. Take Houston.
21:06
Don't even think about it. Now, early in the week, we did
21:09
see this line get up a bit toward the Cougars.
21:11
They went from -2 1/2 to get to as high as -3 1/2.
21:15
But since that time, there's been nothing but buyback on
21:18
Illinois. So Illinois has gotten back down
21:20
to +2 and a half. A lot of books are juicing up
21:23
the Illinois side, and I do see one book that's down to 2.
21:27
So this line is really, really trending hard back toward
21:30
Illinois. Illinois is a great contrarian
21:34
play. Illinois is only getting 32% of
21:36
spread bets and heavily back game.
21:38
You look at circa 35% bets, but nearly 50% dollars.
21:43
Here's where it gets even better.
21:44
Ken Palm, he has Houston winning but only by 1.72 to 71.
21:49
So if you can get a 2 1/2 on Illinois, really not a bad play
21:52
at all. Illinois better offensive
21:55
efficiency, second versus 10th for Houston, better effective
21:58
field goal percentage, 34th versus 139th, better offensive
22:02
rebound percentage, third versus 26th, better three-point
22:06
shooting, 115th versus 125th and better free throw shooting.
22:10
Got to make your free throws 12th versus 28th.
22:12
Lastly, dog who can score system match?
22:15
The Illini average 85 points per game, Houston 78 points per
22:20
game. But we can keep pace here.
22:21
So if Houston is the better team, it's a short number and
22:25
they have this great homecourt advantage, why is the line going
22:28
back toward Illinois even though everyone is betting?
22:30
Houston tells me we've got a really sharp play here to back
22:34
Illinois. I jumped on Illinois a little
22:36
bit earlier. Actually.
22:38
I think I played them last night when they were still plus 3 1/2
22:41
-, 118 at Valley Bet. They're down to 2 1/2.
22:44
So 2 1/2, probably your best number.
22:46
But to give you a little more confidence, Illinois, if you
22:49
look at rhythm, all three rhythm models are recommending
22:52
Illinois, and rhythm has Illinois plus 1.2.
22:57
So if you can still get that 2 1/2, not a bad edge there.
23:00
Lastly, a 13% sharp mush edge from our friends at Juice Reel
23:04
on the Illini. So I'm going Illinois again, got
23:07
a 3 1/2. Looks like now your best number
23:09
is 2 1/2. So Purdue -7 1/2 Iowa plus 2 1/2
23:14
Arkansas plus 8 1/2 Illinois plus 3 1/2 + 2 1/2.
23:20
Let's get some dogs to bark and let's get Purdue to cover this
23:23
number. SO4 bets.
23:24
Let's try to get at least two of these now.
23:27
Major League Baseball, because baseball's back.
23:29
I know everyone's excited, but I do have one bet for you.
23:33
And it is a game that I must admit involves a little
23:36
sentimentality for me. But it's not just a home of
23:39
play. There is a good data-driven
23:43
reason to bet this game. So it is the Boston Red Sox
23:48
playing the Cincinnati Reds. Opening day it at Cincinnati.
23:53
The Red Sox are throwing Garrett Crochet, so stud lefty here,
23:57
facing off against Andrew Abbott.
23:59
Crochet last year went 18 and five with a 2.559 ERA.
24:04
Abbott was really good, too, 10 and seven, 2.87 ERA.
24:08
Here's my reasoning for going Red Sox #1 not a huge line move
24:13
play. They open around -150 they've
24:15
hovered around -155 -, 160, little bit of movement, nothing
24:20
huge. Mostly the lines kind of stayed
24:22
the same in the 1:50-ish range with Boston.
24:25
But if we look over at Circa, Circa is showing on the money
24:28
line for the Red Sox, only 48% of money line bets, but 85% of
24:35
money line dollars. So that's my first indicator
24:38
with the with Boston. You know, if it was Cincinnati,
24:41
48 percent, 85% dollars, then the Homer play would be a legit
24:45
Homer play and I'd be going against a lot of my
24:47
philosophies. But the Red Sox 48% bets 85%
24:51
dollars tells me the bigger, sharper wagers are going with
24:53
the Red Sox. Red Sox are also an interleague
24:56
favorite. Interleague favorite non
24:58
division favorite. Lack of familiarity typically
25:00
benefits the quote UN quote better team.
25:03
Played the Yankees last night. That was an interleague favorite
25:06
system match. We also have a favorite low
25:08
total. If you're getting down on a
25:10
favorite, you really want to get a favorite with a in a game with
25:13
a total of 8 or less because the fewer amount of expected runs
25:16
scored more likely to come from quote UN quote that better team.
25:20
Also, this chalk system opening day favorites, they do very,
25:25
very well historically. Again, Yankees came through last
25:28
night. They're not 194 and one 1563
25:32
percent, 6% ROI dating all the way back since 2005.
25:36
So we've tended to see these chalk favorites do well in the
25:40
first game of the year. If you've been betting every
25:42
opening day favorite since 2005, the year I graduated high
25:46
school, you would be up around $2000.
25:49
A $100 better would be up around $2000.
25:52
Lastly, and this is the sentimental, you know, part of
25:55
it, when I found out I was having a baby and we knew
26:00
somewhat early it was a girl I bought my daughter, who I didn't
26:04
know at the time, hadn't met her yet and didn't have a name yet.
26:08
And, you know, didn't know anything about her other than
26:11
she's coming somewhere. In March.
26:14
I bought her a Red Sox onesie. And today for Opening Day, my
26:20
wife's been doing an incredible job, you know, putting on her,
26:24
her clothes and picking out her outfits.
26:26
And I said, you know what, today's Opening Day.
26:28
And I made sure the wife was OK with it.
26:30
Can I put Margo's Red Sox onesie on?
26:33
So we put it on her. She looks absolutely just so
26:36
cute and beautiful and gorgeous. And I'm going to, for the first
26:40
time in my life, pinch me. I'm going to hold my daughter in
26:44
my hands. She's wearing a Red Sox onesie
26:47
and we're going to sweat Red Sox -155 so that's kind of the Homer
26:52
sentimental angle for me. But I hope you guys know it's
26:55
not just Homer sentimental. We got a good bet split.
26:59
We have a low total. We have an interleague favorite.
27:01
We got crochet on the bump. We have an Opening Day chalk
27:04
system play that is a 6% ROI since 2005.
27:09
Lastly, I got a really good profit boost.
27:11
Take advantage of these guys, all these baseball games before
27:15
you bet it, go to like promos and see what is available to
27:18
you. Because I looked at FanDuel and
27:20
FanDuel is offering a 50% profit boost on any MLB game for today.
27:26
So I took the Red Sox -155 down to -1 O 6.
27:31
So you know why? Why wouldn't you take advantage
27:34
of these profit boost? They're there.
27:35
And again, the books want your business.
27:37
So if you if you like a game, take advantage.
27:40
So I'm technically holding Red Sox minus one O 6, but again,
27:43
it's -155 in the market, let's go Red Sox.
27:47
So that about does it for episode 478 of the All systems
27:50
go sports Betting podcast powered by rhythm.
27:53
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up.
27:55
And I always start first by saying thank you.
27:57
Thank you for listening, Thank you for tuning in.
27:59
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
28:02
personal lives. Now with the kid, I know things
28:04
are much, you know, crazier. So if you're out there and you
28:06
have a child, Congrats. And also, I have a whole new
28:10
respect for moms in general. My mom, my wife, my sister who
28:15
has two kids, my grandmother, unfortunately, she passed.
28:18
But whole new respect for the women out there.
28:21
Going through the whole childbirth situation is not
28:23
easy. In nine months of, you know,
28:25
going through morning sickness and all that.
28:27
For my wife, it was all day sickness.
28:30
Also want to, of course, shout out any nurses or doctors out
28:32
there. They were so amazing to us at
28:34
the hospital. Well, that being said, I just
28:37
want to say thank you. Thank you for listening, Thank
28:39
you for tuning in. Thank you for grinding in the
28:41
arena with me every day, even taking some days off when I'm
28:44
when I'm not available. But I really appreciate it guys.
28:47
So if you want to help me grow the pod, please give it a five
28:49
star review. You can also click the follow
28:53
button, recommend the pod to a friend.
28:56
You know, you can retweet the pod or give it a like when I put
28:58
it out on Twitter at Josh under score insights.
29:01
Any or all those things would be very much appreciated.
29:04
Next, if you enjoy the style of sports betting, data-driven,
29:07
sharp, contrarian betting, focusing on what the numbers are
29:10
saying, not what our bias is telling us.
29:11
If you want to learn more about data-driven betting, you have
29:14
someone who could use some data-driven tips or you just
29:16
want to support the pod, I would love for you to buy one of my
29:19
books. Go to Amazon.com, type in the
29:22
NFL Sharp Betting Playbook or the Everything Guide to sports
29:25
betting. Grab one or both.
29:27
Bring them to the sports book. I'll sign them for you.
29:29
I'll buy a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some some March
29:33
Madness and some baseball together next.
29:35
Have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Real yet?
29:37
My two favorite sports betting apps.
29:39
They help me when they're going to help you win.
29:40
Rhythm actually has not only March Madness recommendations
29:44
right now, but they have MLB live in the app.
29:46
So check it out but give Rhythm a download.
29:50
You can use Start Start 25 promo code for 25% off for great AI
29:54
backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
29:57
Then Juice reel. Juice reel is another great app
29:59
that you should download. You can sync up your sports
30:02
book, get a running report card of your action.
30:04
You can get the robo Jackson best bet picks, sharp mush
30:07
indicators, arbitrage plays, shop for the best line futures.
30:09
You can also support the pod by signing up to get the ASG best
30:14
bet picks only exclusively. Only way only place you can find
30:17
them other than listening to the pod would be getting them on
30:20
juice rail. It costs $4.99 a week. 5 bucks
30:24
you get every play as soon as I make it again you could say I'm
30:28
selling picks, which I guess you could make the case for I look
30:31
at it as a tip jar the pods free support the pod get the plays
30:35
early beat some closing lines by getting those ASG best bet picks
30:39
on juice rail. So download rhythm download
30:41
juice rail give them both a five star review in the App Store.
30:46
Next, do you have a live odds page?
30:48
Well, if you don't have one, you really, really need one because
30:50
the live odds is going to make your life so much easier.
30:53
Not that it's easier to cash a bet technically easier just
30:56
because you're getting a better feel for the market.
30:58
But cashing a ticket is never easy.
31:00
But it just makes how should how should I put it?
31:02
It makes handicapping a game so much better because you have,
31:07
you're dialed into the betting market, showing you every game,
31:10
the opening lines, the current odds, you know, seeing which
31:13
direction the line is moved, identifying the juice, pulling
31:16
up the line history, identifying late steam.
31:19
Like as I was doing the the rhythm rundown last night with
31:22
my buddy Kate Harper, I'll give you a little tease.
31:25
There was a play that was highly rated on Tennessee for tomorrow,
31:30
Tennessee plus 4 1/2. As we're doing the live stream,
31:34
I noticed my odds logic live odds page, a bunch of books were
31:37
getting down to Tennessee plus 4 + 3 1/2.
31:40
So because of that, I said I better bet this thing now.
31:43
So I got the 4 1/2 with Tennessee.
31:45
Similar thing with with Illinois.
31:47
I saw those 3 1/2 start to fall. I said I'd better get it now.
31:50
Those are the ways, especially shopping for the best number
31:54
that you can again cash a ticket hopefully using odds logic.
31:58
So if you want to download odds logic, all you got to do is go
32:01
to oddslogic.com/josh 123. That's going to give you a 7 day
32:06
free trial and 50% off your first month of service.
32:10
Next, Profit X, You guys ever heard of Profit XI recently
32:15
teamed up with Profit X. They are sports betting
32:17
exchange. You get way better numbers.
32:19
You don't get limited if you start winning, unlike some other
32:23
books out there. But profit, Profit X is a
32:26
betting exchange where you're going up against other betters
32:28
instead of the house. You're getting way better juice
32:31
prices. So for example, I'm looking at
32:34
the Red Sox game right now, they're -148 at profit X.
32:39
They're like -155 -, 160 everywhere else.
32:42
So you get better numbers because we're going up against
32:45
other betters and not the house. So all you got to do to take
32:48
advantage, if you never heard of Profit X, go download it.
32:51
You can just download again, profit X and when you fund your
32:54
account, put in the promo code Josh.
32:56
They're going to tack on 20% deposit match.
32:59
I also tweeted out for my Twitter at Josh under score
33:02
Insight. So the pin tweet at the top.
33:04
You can also download it there. So that about does it for
33:07
episode 478 of the ASG pod. Getting back into the swing of
33:11
things. I missed you guys, but I guess I
33:13
had a pretty good excuse. I had a baby being born.
33:17
But as always, guys, I'll leave you with two final thoughts.
33:19
One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
33:22
River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
33:24
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut, at the Encore in
33:27
Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM Springfield or the
33:30
Nash, my neck of the woods in Massachusetts on the border of
33:33
New Hampshire. Or of course, out in the desert
33:36
where the true grinders get down.
33:37
Or Billy Walters sends his number runners where the lowest
33:39
juice possible is found at the South Point.
33:41
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
33:44
swimming pool. When you cash a big ticket at
33:46
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me,
33:49
you know, show me a Yankees ticket.
33:51
I'm a Red Sox fan, but you got to play it if it's sharp.
33:54
So those of you who read the Sharp report or saw the best bet
33:59
on the ASG Best Bets page on Juice Reel on the Yankees, show
34:02
me a Yankees ticket. First one's on me, next one's on
34:05
you. We'll post about the book.
34:06
Such sharp contrarian plays all night long.
34:09
So as always, guys coming off a a winning night, a losing night,
34:12
a great hot streak, a terrible cold streak, whether we're up or
34:15
down, whether things are going our way or we can't catch a
34:18
break, we just got to stick with the model, stick with the
34:21
blueprint, discipline, bankroll management and playing the
34:23
system matches, games that are against the public, with the
34:27
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
34:30
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports betters.
34:34
So thank you everyone for listening.
34:35
It's great to be back. Thank you for all the well
34:37
wishes. And I got a date with my
34:39
daughter because we're going to watch the Red Sox game together.
34:42
And I tell you what guys, it's a it's a moment in life that I
34:46
surely will never forget. So go Sox and I'll see you guys
34:50
tomorrow. Good luck and have a great
34:52
Thirsty Thursday.