Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / MLB Season Over/Unders with Paul Lo Duca and BlackJack Fletcher

Transcript

MLB Season Over/Unders with Paul Lo Duca and BlackJack Fletcher · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites. I am black Jack. Fletcher. Chad
0:12
Speaker 1: is out today. He's out playing with himself on the
0:14
Speaker 1: West Coast this week. But we have a special baseball
0:18
Speaker 1: themed show for you. And since Chat and Georgina aren't here,
0:22
Speaker 1: I needed to find someone with enough energy, charisma and
0:26
Speaker 1: gusto to carry us through. And I think I found
0:29
Speaker 1: just the man. He is the long ball lothario, four
0:32
Speaker 1: time Major League All Star. Paula Duca, Pouli, how are
0:37
Speaker 1: we doing. I'm doing absolutely wonderful. I had my eggs, bacon,
0:42
Speaker 1: a little bit of avocado toast. It's a new thing
0:46
Speaker 1: out here in California. Black Jack's toast now, PAULI, sometimes
0:50
Speaker 1: when we've done shows together, things go a little off
0:52
Speaker 1: the rails. I want you to know that there is
0:55
Speaker 1: a ground rule for this show, and that's that there
0:58
Speaker 1: are no rules. I once you locked in, loaded, ready
1:02
Speaker 1: to go, I'm ready. I'm I'm just coming off the
1:07
Speaker 1: Machado signing. I mean, I couldn't be more excited. All right,
1:10
Speaker 1: So today we're gonna take a look at some of
1:12
Speaker 1: the over underwind totals for Major League Baseball teams. We're
1:16
Speaker 1: gonna pick them in the order that we feel most confident. Paulie,
1:19
Speaker 1: There's been a lot of moves this offseason. There's still
1:21
Speaker 1: a lot left to come. But as you are the
1:23
Speaker 1: man who actually played Major League baseball, I'll allow you
1:27
Speaker 1: to go first. Which team are you looking at off
1:29
Speaker 1: the top here? Well, you know, I think a lot
1:32
Speaker 1: of people are worried, first of all about Chris Sales
1:35
Speaker 1: left shoulder. And you know the line that Vegas set
1:38
Speaker 1: on the Red Sox is and a half. I found
1:41
Speaker 1: that very, very low. I've haven't seen much movement at
1:45
Speaker 1: all in the A L. East. Um, they lost Joe Kelly,
1:49
Speaker 1: And let's be honest, Joe Kelly was found gold in
1:54
Speaker 1: the playoffs and in the World Series, because you know,
1:58
Speaker 1: he was always a crapshoot and sort of a mess.
2:00
Speaker 1: He could walk the yard at any time. Granted, he's
2:03
Speaker 1: got a phenomenal arm and he It was a good
2:05
Speaker 1: pickup for the Dodgers to get a reliever or something
2:08
Speaker 1: that that they sorely needed to get to Jansen. But
2:12
Speaker 1: you know, Kimbero is still out there. Um, and towards
2:16
Speaker 1: the end of the year he was getting a little
2:17
Speaker 1: shaky Blackjack. But I read all these articles of people saying, well,
2:22
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a letdown from Mookie Betts and there's
2:25
Speaker 1: gonna be a let down from j D. Martinez. Do
2:27
Speaker 1: people forget that Mookie Bets got hurt and j D.
2:30
Speaker 1: Martinez basically took a stranglehold of the m v P,
2:34
Speaker 1: and then Mookie Betts came off the d hell and
2:36
Speaker 1: just took the m v P back from him, and
2:39
Speaker 1: they just steamrolled. So, you know, hundred eight wins, I
2:43
Speaker 1: get it. They will probably falter a little bit less
2:47
Speaker 1: than a hundred and eight games, I mean and a half,
2:51
Speaker 1: And I get it. I get it. There's worries about
2:53
Speaker 1: Chris Sale's shoulder, there's worries that he might not be
2:56
Speaker 1: the same, But I still think they have enough ammunition
2:59
Speaker 1: um um with the Valdi. I think a lot of
3:02
Speaker 1: people are solding that Valdi through all these innings um
3:07
Speaker 1: in in the playoffs. Well, you know what, great? Yeah,
3:11
Speaker 1: but here's my deal, Like people are always worried about
3:14
Speaker 1: pitch count Man didn't no one, not Ryan like take
3:18
Speaker 1: two talent all or two advil and he went out
3:20
Speaker 1: there and pitched every day. You bring up pitch counts
3:23
Speaker 1: and that's interesting. Um There's been a lot of talk
3:27
Speaker 1: about the edition of the pitch clock that we're going
3:29
Speaker 1: to see this season. What are your thoughts on the
3:32
Speaker 1: pitch clock? Here twenty seconds to throw a pitch, players
3:36
Speaker 1: and whatepends for you. I got twenty seconds for you.
3:38
Speaker 1: Have about twenty seconds for the umpires to start doing
3:40
Speaker 1: calisthenics and some maybe some sit ups so they can
3:43
Speaker 1: get a freaking call, right, so that maybe those twenty
3:46
Speaker 1: seconds wouldn't have to go to replay every other minute.
3:51
Speaker 1: They're worried always about speed of play. When I came
3:55
Speaker 1: into the league, commercial time was one. Now it's two thirty. Okay,
4:01
Speaker 1: there's forty five seconds right there. You've stolen for what for?
4:04
Speaker 1: Money in your pocket? Now you're gonna talk to start
4:07
Speaker 1: talking about that the hitters needed to be into the box.
4:12
Speaker 1: That's not gonna happen. Now there's a there's a twenty
4:15
Speaker 1: uh whatever second clock. I stop. You can't take out
4:22
Speaker 1: the second basement, you can't run over the catcher. You
4:25
Speaker 1: want a d h in this it's the oldest, longest
4:28
Speaker 1: game and the best part about the game. There's no
4:31
Speaker 1: fucking clock. Stop. Bob Manfred is ruining him and Bud
4:37
Speaker 1: Selig together have basically just I mean, the game is
4:42
Speaker 1: being newter d one zillion percent I have. I can't
4:47
Speaker 1: remember last year how many times I saw a guy
4:50
Speaker 1: bunt or move a guy over, give himself up for
4:53
Speaker 1: another teammate. The game is, you know, Earl Weaver, it's
4:59
Speaker 1: basically or should just call it Earl Weaver baseball. Let's
5:02
Speaker 1: sit around and wait for the three run homer. That's
5:04
Speaker 1: all it is. Wow. Alright, So on the Red Sox.
5:07
Speaker 1: Let's get back to them for a second. You mentioned
5:09
Speaker 1: people talking about Bets, but yeah, I think people forget
5:12
Speaker 1: how young that core is with Bets and Benn and Tendie,
5:15
Speaker 1: I mean, Bogarts, they're they're so young. Those guys could
5:18
Speaker 1: actually still be improving, right of course. And the other
5:22
Speaker 1: part about it is is as they stole Stephen Pierce,
5:25
Speaker 1: and I think Steve got sort of labeled as a
5:28
Speaker 1: guy that could hit lefties, and Alice car said, you
5:30
Speaker 1: know what, let's try it against right he's and the
5:32
Speaker 1: guy can just flat out hit. Um, you're right, they
5:36
Speaker 1: are young. They're very young. Um in the core of
5:40
Speaker 1: the team, and everybody keeps putting all this I guess, uh,
5:45
Speaker 1: all the chips on the table onto Chris Sale's shoulder. Okay,
5:48
Speaker 1: I get it. He is a dominating, dominating picture, but
5:52
Speaker 1: his career is not all over. If if there's something
5:55
Speaker 1: wrong with his shoulder, I guarantee you it had been
5:58
Speaker 1: looked at and in something would have been done, and
6:03
Speaker 1: he'd not be throwing right now. There'd be issues right
6:06
Speaker 1: now going into spring training. He might not be the
6:08
Speaker 1: same Chris Sale. But let's also say that Clayton Kershaw
6:11
Speaker 1: is not the same Clayton Kershaw. And the Dodgers are
6:13
Speaker 1: still gonna win ball games, alright, PAULI, So you're going
6:17
Speaker 1: over on the Red Sox at ninety five and a half.
6:20
Speaker 1: They're minus one fifteen on both sides of that bet
6:22
Speaker 1: for my first one, I'm gonna take a look at
6:25
Speaker 1: I feel really good about this. When I'm curious to
6:27
Speaker 1: get your take on it. It's the Washington Nationals. They're
6:30
Speaker 1: over under his eighty seven and a half, and I
6:32
Speaker 1: think this is an absolute over the Nationals, and I'm
6:36
Speaker 1: I want to put a caveat on this. We're sitting
6:39
Speaker 1: here on Thursday morning at eleven thirty. Bryce Harper is
6:42
Speaker 1: still a free agent. I'm making this assuming he is
6:45
Speaker 1: not coming back to d C. Even though I think
6:47
Speaker 1: it is a possibility, I'm going to assume he's not
6:49
Speaker 1: in their lineup this year. They've gone out and they've
6:52
Speaker 1: added Patrick Corbin, they add Animal Sanchez. They lose only
6:56
Speaker 1: really Tanner Rourke, which isn't a big law. They replaced
7:00
Speaker 1: Geo Gonzalez and Sanna Rourke with Corbin and Sanchez. I
7:03
Speaker 1: think that's absolutely an upgrade. Um the catching position. They
7:07
Speaker 1: add Yn Gomes and Kurt Suzuki. They also have a
7:12
Speaker 1: very young line up, especially in the outfield, even without Harper.
7:16
Speaker 1: I think the Nationals now With that rotation, led by Scherzer,
7:20
Speaker 1: Strasburg and Corbin, the Nationals might be the class of
7:24
Speaker 1: the National League East. And nobody's talking about him. M
7:29
Speaker 1: actually don't hate this pick. Plus, I think they might
7:32
Speaker 1: have the most dynamic young players in one. Soto. I mean,
7:35
Speaker 1: he's got explosion in his bat and and and Brian
7:39
Speaker 1: doeser like. I think a lot of people forget they
7:42
Speaker 1: picked him up and when he came over to the
7:44
Speaker 1: Dodgers midway through the season. It's tough to come to
7:47
Speaker 1: a team midway through the season. When you start with
7:49
Speaker 1: the team you just have that comfortability, and he had
7:53
Speaker 1: a tremendous year for the Twins a couple of years ago.
7:56
Speaker 1: So um, and I tell you would I wouldn't leave
8:01
Speaker 1: Harper out of that him not coming back. And the
8:04
Speaker 1: reason why is a lot of people keep forgetting that
8:06
Speaker 1: the Learners are the richest team, richest owners in baseball.
8:10
Speaker 1: And maybe Mr Boris is going I need more than
8:14
Speaker 1: that three hundred thousand from my clients or three hundred
8:16
Speaker 1: million from my client now, and the Nationals might be
8:19
Speaker 1: able to pony up maybe three million, three hundred thirty
8:22
Speaker 1: million for Bryce. Um. I don't hate this pick I
8:26
Speaker 1: love their pickups. You get and I like Suzuki and
8:30
Speaker 1: let me be a Homer as being a catcher. But
8:33
Speaker 1: you know, you get a veteran guy that's been in
8:35
Speaker 1: the league and now can handle that staff. And and
8:39
Speaker 1: I know that everything has sort of been squished together
8:42
Speaker 1: because the Braves have gotten better, the Phillies have gotten better,
8:46
Speaker 1: and everybody is projecting the Mets will be a lot
8:49
Speaker 1: better with with more of a veteran core this year,
8:52
Speaker 1: that they'll be more of a five hundred type teams.
8:55
Speaker 1: So they think the n L East will tighten up Um,
8:58
Speaker 1: and maybe this is the chance to that they're sort
9:00
Speaker 1: of getting undersold a little bit because the Nationals have
9:03
Speaker 1: been around ninety or over ninety what the last three
9:06
Speaker 1: or four years? Black Day, Yeah, and I think you're
9:08
Speaker 1: you're right. The ND at least may wind up being
9:10
Speaker 1: the most competitive division in baseball because there are four
9:12
Speaker 1: teams in that division that it would not shock me
9:15
Speaker 1: if they won. I mean, it wouldn't stun me if
9:18
Speaker 1: the Mets, Phillies, Nationals, Braves won that division. Our producer
9:21
Speaker 1: Matt Heavy smiling right now, Um, I think you're doubting
9:24
Speaker 1: what I'm saying about the Mets. Right Well, here's my
9:27
Speaker 1: thing about the Mets is like it's always fools goold.
9:30
Speaker 1: You know, it was always winner the five superstars gonna
9:36
Speaker 1: beat together. Um, pitching on the same pitching staff, Well,
9:39
Speaker 1: was never gonna happen because all five guys had all
9:41
Speaker 1: five had all major injuries before they were even together.
9:45
Speaker 1: And Jacob Degraham has obviously risen to the top. Um,
9:49
Speaker 1: the first half the season is going to be very
9:51
Speaker 1: very big. While we're while we're talking a little bit
9:53
Speaker 1: about the Mets here, just quickly, what the hell are
9:55
Speaker 1: the Mets doing? With de Gram. I mean, they don't
9:58
Speaker 1: seem to be willing to extend him, but they also
10:00
Speaker 1: don't really seem to want to trade him. I mean,
10:03
Speaker 1: are they just gonna let him walk for nothing? Like?
10:06
Speaker 1: What are they doing? It's six letters for you, W I,
10:10
Speaker 1: L P O N. Alright, Pauli's spelling. You nailed out one, buddy,
10:14
Speaker 1: that's right. I mean they just I've said this for
10:17
Speaker 1: years and about maybe like six years ago, I got
10:22
Speaker 1: crushed in the media and maybe longer. And when I
10:24
Speaker 1: said they should have traded David David Right, he's one
10:26
Speaker 1: of my best friends, and they I got land based
10:31
Speaker 1: it in the press. And then the reason why I
10:33
Speaker 1: said it was is that you went out after Shay
10:37
Speaker 1: and you built a field bigger than Shay and your
10:40
Speaker 1: two best players going into City Field, we're gonna be
10:44
Speaker 1: you know. It was David Right, he's your your franchise guy,
10:47
Speaker 1: and where it is, and you built a picture stadium.
10:50
Speaker 1: Now the Mets have done it so completely wrong. They
10:54
Speaker 1: drafted pitching and went out and tried to get hitting.
10:59
Speaker 1: Who's gonna go and want to go hit in that
11:01
Speaker 1: ballpark where they should have done it the other way around.
11:03
Speaker 1: If you're gonna build a ballpark that big draft. Hitting
11:06
Speaker 1: and pitching will come in free agency because pitchers want
11:09
Speaker 1: their ear a to be low. It's been asked backwards
11:12
Speaker 1: for years and theyre's they're they're fine settling being on
11:17
Speaker 1: the back page. We even in two thousand six, when
11:20
Speaker 1: we were better than the Yankees, we were on the
11:22
Speaker 1: back page. That's just the bottom line. The Yankees are
11:25
Speaker 1: on the front page. The Mets are on the back page.
11:28
Speaker 1: And that's exactly what's gonna happen this year. Now they've
11:31
Speaker 1: got a GM that God knows what's going on. He's
11:34
Speaker 1: now putting up. Uh yes, if let me let me
11:40
Speaker 1: tell you something. If you need those fucking inspirational posters
11:43
Speaker 1: to get to the big leagues, you need problems, you
11:45
Speaker 1: need to go home, and by the way, to dominate,
11:49
Speaker 1: you need all those other things. You need to win
11:51
Speaker 1: a game first to dominate. All right, Paul Duke and
11:56
Speaker 1: not a fan of inspirational quotes, Come on, if you
11:58
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13:20
Speaker 1: What's the next total you're interested in, Paul, I'm interested
13:24
Speaker 1: in the Manni Machado. Everybody's gonna go with maybe the Padres.
13:29
Speaker 1: Now the overreaction. What's the matter with the Colorado Rockies?
13:33
Speaker 1: I know you like this, I know you love this.
13:35
Speaker 1: Mean um two years in a row now they have
13:40
Speaker 1: made the playoffs. UM and Bud Black. I think a
13:44
Speaker 1: lot of people are for kidding a job. Bud Black
13:47
Speaker 1: has really done there. But Black is the last guy
13:50
Speaker 1: to have the Padres do anything when he managed them. No,
13:53
Speaker 1: that's true. And and I know that they lose a
13:57
Speaker 1: couple of guys here and there, but they got some
13:58
Speaker 1: young guys that are up on the horizon. You know.
14:02
Speaker 1: It was a shame for me that that they didn't
14:05
Speaker 1: get to see or we haven't got to see Kyle
14:07
Speaker 1: Freeland pitch in the playoffs because I think a lot
14:09
Speaker 1: of people are gonna see a young lefty or haven't
14:13
Speaker 1: seen a young lefty that is very very good. And
14:16
Speaker 1: he's got better splits at coors Field at least he
14:20
Speaker 1: did last year, um than he did on the road.
14:23
Speaker 1: You know, Garrett Hampson is a guy who's a and
14:27
Speaker 1: and infield. There was in the minor leagues that can
14:29
Speaker 1: steal close to forty bases that they're looking forward to.
14:34
Speaker 1: Nolan Arronado is in his contract year. Um, Listen to me.
14:39
Speaker 1: He's the best third basement in baseball, if not the
14:43
Speaker 1: best defensive h third baseman or all around. And he's
14:48
Speaker 1: gonna be coveted by the Yankees. I mean I would
14:50
Speaker 1: think he's gonna be in pinstripes next year. The Rockies
14:54
Speaker 1: need to make a move this year. Um, and they're
14:58
Speaker 1: clearly the second best teams. Well, that's the thing. I mean,
15:02
Speaker 1: you're right. I do love this. And the over is
15:04
Speaker 1: juice to minus one fifty. As a result of it,
15:06
Speaker 1: the overunder's eighty two and a half. Somebody other than
15:09
Speaker 1: the Dodgers has to win games in that division. The
15:11
Speaker 1: Giants stink, the Diamondbacks stink. The Padres maybe a little
15:16
Speaker 1: better than we thought, but I mean, what's the ceiling
15:18
Speaker 1: for the Padres five hundred if if everything goes right,
15:22
Speaker 1: I mean, somebody's got to win games there. And you
15:24
Speaker 1: mentioned Kyle Freeland. Kyle Freeland is the best picture we've
15:27
Speaker 1: seen in course field. I mean when he pitched last year,
15:30
Speaker 1: he was an automatic bet for me in the first
15:32
Speaker 1: five innings. I mean, that guy was unbelievably consistent. They
15:36
Speaker 1: add Daniel Murphy, who, if he stays healthy, should hit
15:40
Speaker 1: really well in course field. As you mentioned, they've got story,
15:43
Speaker 1: they've got our Ronado. I mean, eighty two and a
15:46
Speaker 1: half just seems so low for this team. This was
15:49
Speaker 1: one of the first ones that jumped out to me.
15:52
Speaker 1: I'm with you. And in the other part about it
15:54
Speaker 1: is you made a good point with Daniel Murphy if
15:56
Speaker 1: he can somehow stay healthy. I think a lot of
15:58
Speaker 1: people forget how good of a player or or how
16:01
Speaker 1: good of a hitter he really is. And he can
16:03
Speaker 1: just add another left handed bat. And you make a
16:06
Speaker 1: great point about the padres. One of the better tweets
16:11
Speaker 1: about somebody yesterday was after Rosenthal, whoever put out that
16:17
Speaker 1: he had signed for three hundred million, somebody putting out
16:19
Speaker 1: there're only five starting pitchers away from winning some ballgames,
16:23
Speaker 1: and and and it's true, Luczy, and is really it?
16:28
Speaker 1: And and Joey's like, I mean, he's probably a four
16:32
Speaker 1: and a five or might not even be in the
16:35
Speaker 1: starting pitching staff. On some other teams. So I mean,
16:39
Speaker 1: I mean, he's he's a good picture. I'm sorry, let's
16:42
Speaker 1: be four or five somewhere else. So they still got
16:45
Speaker 1: a long way to go. But my thing that I
16:48
Speaker 1: love about the Padres picking up my child is that
16:51
Speaker 1: they finally got somebody there that other players are saying, Hey,
16:55
Speaker 1: Machado's signed there, we got we gotta put some on
16:58
Speaker 1: the track. Put some on them. It gives them, It
17:00
Speaker 1: gives them somewhat of an attraction, and it gives them,
17:04
Speaker 1: um a lot more leeway in the next couple off
17:06
Speaker 1: seasons to go get some guys to go, hey, your
17:08
Speaker 1: your your media veteran. That was a great segue. Let's
17:11
Speaker 1: talk about the Padres. Their total seventy nine and a
17:14
Speaker 1: half over under is one fifteen minus one fifteen on
17:18
Speaker 1: each side. There's still a lot that could happen with
17:22
Speaker 1: the Padres. There are still some people. John Hayman said
17:26
Speaker 1: yesterday that they're not necessarily out on Bryce Harper. Uh.
17:29
Speaker 1: There's talk about Dallas Kaikel. There's talk that they may
17:32
Speaker 1: try to package some of those prospects, of which they
17:35
Speaker 1: have a ton of highly rated prospects to Cleveland for
17:38
Speaker 1: Corey Kluber. But right now, this team as presently composed,
17:42
Speaker 1: it's seventy nine and a half. Do you think they're
17:44
Speaker 1: over or under that total? I think it's a complete
17:48
Speaker 1: stay away right now. And I'll tell you why. You
17:50
Speaker 1: and I before we started this, we're wondering why are
17:56
Speaker 1: if you are Manama, or why would you sign with
17:59
Speaker 1: the San Diego Padres. The Cell job had to be amazing,
18:03
Speaker 1: It really had to be. There's forty million dollars loss
18:06
Speaker 1: in California state tax. Yes, forty million. Stop with the
18:11
Speaker 1: people who says he lives in Miami or he lives
18:13
Speaker 1: in Texas. He's gonna play over a hundred fifteen games
18:16
Speaker 1: in California. Yeah, the Dodgers, the Giants, and the Angels
18:19
Speaker 1: in the Athletics play in case, there's inter league games.
18:22
Speaker 1: He gets taxed in those states when he lives in
18:25
Speaker 1: the off season. That's the right other stuff off. So
18:29
Speaker 1: forty million is going to go to the state of California.
18:33
Speaker 1: Now I know he's not worried about that. That's not
18:35
Speaker 1: even including federal So is the Cell job black Jack? Hey, Manny,
18:40
Speaker 1: come on, make this sign. Let's make a point. Now
18:44
Speaker 1: we can go after Riamalta. Now we can maybe give
18:47
Speaker 1: Bryce a little bit of a nibble. Now we can
18:50
Speaker 1: start going after these guys. And we promise you that
18:53
Speaker 1: we're gonna go get this guy. And we promise you
18:55
Speaker 1: we're gonna go get that guy. This is what I'm
18:57
Speaker 1: worried about, that the Potters made this move and there's
19:01
Speaker 1: still so many guys out there. Are they done yet? Yeah?
19:04
Speaker 1: I mean, listen, it's it's it's only a matter of money,
19:07
Speaker 1: which I know sounds trivial to to some degree. But
19:11
Speaker 1: they've got ten of the top one prospects in baseball
19:15
Speaker 1: in their farm system. They've got an ownership group that
19:17
Speaker 1: obviously is willing to spend money. They just dropped three
19:19
Speaker 1: hundred million dollars on Mannie Machado, a guy who described
19:23
Speaker 1: himself during the World Series as quote not Johnny Hustle. Um.
19:28
Speaker 1: I mean, they're they're obviously willing to spend Where where
19:32
Speaker 1: do you see them? Do you think they're gonna make
19:33
Speaker 1: another move this offseason? What do you think it is?
19:38
Speaker 1: Maybe they gotta go for a picture, maybe a Kaiko, Yeah,
19:43
Speaker 1: maybe a frontline picture. And I think a good guy
19:47
Speaker 1: would be Kaiko. Actually a great guy for that ballpark.
19:51
Speaker 1: He's a contact type guy, um, not a strikeout picture,
19:56
Speaker 1: even though he does strike out. I think one and
19:58
Speaker 1: inning or a little bit less us but that that
20:01
Speaker 1: used to be good, but now you gotta strike out
20:03
Speaker 1: like two and inning. But he would be a perfect
20:05
Speaker 1: fit um um for them, And and then that brings
20:09
Speaker 1: a frontline guy and then maybe a back end guy
20:12
Speaker 1: that has has some experience. I don't I do not
20:15
Speaker 1: think they're done yet. I just don't think that Manny
20:18
Speaker 1: could have signed there. Because here's the thing, like when
20:21
Speaker 1: you sign in places like San Diego, or you signed
20:25
Speaker 1: in places like Seattle, sometimes you sign your death warrant.
20:28
Speaker 1: Adrian Beltrey almost signed his death warrant in Seattle, UM
20:32
Speaker 1: and then came back to Texas and resurrected in his career.
20:36
Speaker 1: Man in Machildo could sign his death warran. A lot
20:38
Speaker 1: of people forget how old is still a young kids.
20:42
Speaker 1: So after these five years, he realistically could probably hit
20:47
Speaker 1: two seventy and only hit twenty five and eighty or
20:51
Speaker 1: ninety in that ballpark. Now, if he would have signed
20:53
Speaker 1: with the Phillies, he'd be if he stays healthy, he'd
20:57
Speaker 1: be immortal. Walk to hit three d forty and a hundred,
21:00
Speaker 1: and then after that five years he'd be signing another
21:04
Speaker 1: huge contract. For five years, he could be signing his
21:06
Speaker 1: death warrant in San Diego. Wow, interesting take there. Uh,
21:10
Speaker 1: we're about halfway through these totals, PAULI, I want to
21:13
Speaker 1: just stop for a second and get your take. You
21:14
Speaker 1: played eleven years I think in the Major's right, Yeah,
21:18
Speaker 1: ten ten years. I was counting that national season there. Um.
21:24
Speaker 1: We've talked about a lot of cities here, Colorado, San Diego, Boston,
21:28
Speaker 1: d C. What was your favorite city to play in
21:31
Speaker 1: on the road? My favorite ballpark? What was surprised a
21:35
Speaker 1: lot of people I say this too, um p and
21:37
Speaker 1: c uh. Pittsburgh. Yeah, in Pittsburgh, it just had that
21:41
Speaker 1: old school feel. You had the Allegheny River behind right field,
21:45
Speaker 1: the bridge right there. Um, you could walk to everything. Um,
21:50
Speaker 1: Hines Field is walking distance across the parking lot. Um,
21:55
Speaker 1: and there's bars, restaurants, and he could walk to the hotel.
21:58
Speaker 1: I just I just love the old time feel. He's
22:01
Speaker 1: come out of out of the clubhouse and you said
22:03
Speaker 1: the fans there, and the fans would follow you and
22:06
Speaker 1: you'd sign autographs that they follow you into a bar
22:09
Speaker 1: and stuff like that, and it was It's a really
22:11
Speaker 1: cool place to play. So how were the ladies in Pittsburgh?
22:16
Speaker 1: They're a little rough when you're drinking, rolling rock your
22:18
Speaker 1: whole life. It's tough, all right. So I'm sorry. I'm
22:23
Speaker 1: so sorry for the ladies. The flip side of that
22:24
Speaker 1: question is which city did you not like going to?
22:27
Speaker 1: Which city just stunk? Who? It's hard to say a
22:33
Speaker 1: city stinks when you're playing in the big leagues, but
22:35
Speaker 1: um m hmm, you have to go in Milwaukee. Yeah,
22:40
Speaker 1: you didn't like Milwaukee. A lot of pale people in Milwaukee.
22:43
Speaker 1: Pale people. Yeah, sun doesn't come out that much in Milwaukee. Well,
22:47
Speaker 1: I mean, for for golden gods like ourselves, that's that's
22:49
Speaker 1: a difficult sell, that's true. But you you would love Milwaukee.
22:53
Speaker 1: There's a lot of hops, you know, and in barley
22:56
Speaker 1: in Milwaukee, and a lot of pale people probably you know,
23:00
Speaker 1: not really a beer guy. I'm drinking Jim Beam right
23:02
Speaker 1: now while we're talking, and you're Jim Bill and jewel.
23:06
Speaker 1: That's right, that's right, all right. So um let's get
23:11
Speaker 1: back on track a little bit here. Let's take a
23:13
Speaker 1: look at the Yankees. The Yankees over under ninety five
23:16
Speaker 1: and a half here um same total as the Red
23:19
Speaker 1: Sox ironically juiced a little bit to the over at
23:22
Speaker 1: minus under minus one oh five. I'm gonna go over
23:26
Speaker 1: with the Yankees, PAULI. I mean, there's nothing that they've
23:29
Speaker 1: done not to like. They had a good team last
23:33
Speaker 1: year obviously, I mean, they were a hundred win team.
23:36
Speaker 1: They add James Paxton, they re signed J. Happ and
23:39
Speaker 1: C C. Sabathia. They really lose nothing off the major
23:44
Speaker 1: league roster. They're gonna have to replace Steedie gregorys as
23:47
Speaker 1: while he recovers from Tommy John But other than that,
23:50
Speaker 1: I mean, and they add to Lwitsky, who, if he's healthy,
23:53
Speaker 1: I mean, could be a decent stand in. I don't
23:56
Speaker 1: see anything the Yankees have done for a serious drop
23:59
Speaker 1: off year end. You didn't get a great year out
24:02
Speaker 1: of gian Carlos Stanton last year, so maybe he comes
24:05
Speaker 1: back with a little bit more this season. What do
24:08
Speaker 1: you think about the Yankees and a half? Yeah, I
24:11
Speaker 1: don't mind it. I don't mind it. Let's be honest
24:15
Speaker 1: to hear Vegas set the Orioles at fifty nine. I mean, yeah,
24:23
Speaker 1: you've been gambling for a long time. I mean, and
24:26
Speaker 1: so if I can't remember the last time Vegas projected
24:29
Speaker 1: a team and lose a hundred games, they didn't even
24:32
Speaker 1: last year when the Marlins fired Billy the Marlin, I mean,
24:37
Speaker 1: they dumped everybody, and they still were better than the Orioles,
24:42
Speaker 1: and they still Vegas put them at sixty four and
24:45
Speaker 1: a half black Jack, and they put the Orioles at
24:47
Speaker 1: fifty nine. So that's such a dead team. That's you know,
24:52
Speaker 1: and like you said, you play each other nineteen times.
24:54
Speaker 1: We were talking about that earlier. I mean, they're probably
24:57
Speaker 1: gonna go fifteen in four at least. Again it's them,
25:01
Speaker 1: and you know, DJ le Maayhew is a big pick
25:04
Speaker 1: up because he's very versatile. You can move Torres around. Um.
25:07
Speaker 1: I thought he was the one loss for the Rockies,
25:10
Speaker 1: but they had to do something in your right listen,
25:12
Speaker 1: is there anything left? Um in Troy to Lewinsky. I mean,
25:17
Speaker 1: I when I tried to make my comeback in two
25:19
Speaker 1: thousand and ten with the Rockies before I blew out,
25:21
Speaker 1: I mean I got to see him and his prime
25:24
Speaker 1: and he just always couldn't stay healthy. But I just
25:28
Speaker 1: saw the glimpses of his brilliance and he can be
25:30
Speaker 1: just so dominant at certain times, and hopefully he could
25:35
Speaker 1: stay healthy for the Yankees. But with Paxson and and
25:39
Speaker 1: le Mayheu in the moves that they made, to just
25:43
Speaker 1: the le Maayheu movement, I thought was so big just
25:45
Speaker 1: to keep Gregorious, to keep that like a band aid
25:49
Speaker 1: on that. And you make a great point with Stan
25:51
Speaker 1: I think stant was just overwhelmed the beginning of that season.
25:54
Speaker 1: He wasn't out for the first three weeks of the season,
25:58
Speaker 1: maybe the first three weeks. First, maybe it was three months.
26:01
Speaker 1: And I think he'll make the adjustment. And again, like
26:06
Speaker 1: I think both of these teams can win a hundred games.
26:08
Speaker 1: I really do. The Boston in New York, I don't
26:11
Speaker 1: see anything really changing in that division. I'm with you, Paulie.
26:16
Speaker 1: I think these are the class of the al least.
26:18
Speaker 1: I don't think Toronto is gonna be anything good. I
26:19
Speaker 1: don't think baltim Baltimore is gonna be historically bad. Again,
26:23
Speaker 1: Tampa is gonna be good. But I mean, even so,
26:25
Speaker 1: these teams are still better than Tampa, so they still
26:27
Speaker 1: should should fare pretty well against him. Um, you've got
26:32
Speaker 1: an interesting take on the l A Angels. They're over
26:35
Speaker 1: under his eighty three and a half juice a little
26:37
Speaker 1: bit to the over at minus. What do you think
26:40
Speaker 1: about the Angels, Well, I think it's a sneaky a team.
26:45
Speaker 1: You know, obviously they lose Socian. Now they get Brad
26:47
Speaker 1: Osman's as their manager. Um, who you and a lot
26:51
Speaker 1: of people thought was going to be a very good
26:53
Speaker 1: manager and he did not have a good first time
26:56
Speaker 1: around when he's considering he he had some boys on
27:00
Speaker 1: that team with Verlander and Miguel Cabrera in Detroit and
27:03
Speaker 1: could not win. So I'm a little worried about that.
27:05
Speaker 1: But I do think Trevor k. Hill Um and Matt
27:10
Speaker 1: Harvey or sneaky pickups. You know, Matt pitched pretty well
27:14
Speaker 1: after he left New York Um for Cincinnati. I'm better
27:18
Speaker 1: than I thought he would. You know, here's the guy
27:20
Speaker 1: that lost a rib. But I think a lot of
27:22
Speaker 1: people forget about that lost a rib. Yeah, they had
27:25
Speaker 1: to take out a rib. And he, like I said,
27:30
Speaker 1: he he pokes a little no no uh and it
27:36
Speaker 1: wasn't a malcontent. And Cincinnati, I really feel feel that
27:39
Speaker 1: he just wanted so out of New York that he
27:41
Speaker 1: sabotaged that whole situation and that he it's just over
27:45
Speaker 1: it's it's just over with and he's back to pitching.
27:47
Speaker 1: So um, those two guys, to me, I thought were
27:51
Speaker 1: big pickups. You know, Griffin Canning's a young guy U
27:56
Speaker 1: c l A. That is a stud that went from
27:59
Speaker 1: a ball to triple last year. They shut him down
28:01
Speaker 1: because he had so many innings at U c l A.
28:03
Speaker 1: He's going to be in that rotation this year. Um.
28:06
Speaker 1: I think he's another guy and guys young arms like
28:10
Speaker 1: that can be sneaky young arms that that the league
28:13
Speaker 1: hasn't seen. Um. And I think that the under and
28:16
Speaker 1: over on this team is good enough, uh that it's playable. Oh,
28:22
Speaker 1: Tani is gonna be out for a while, but you know,
28:25
Speaker 1: it was more of a hype and I think than
28:27
Speaker 1: anything else. And and maybe that will put pitching aside
28:30
Speaker 1: and maybe he can come back and be more of
28:32
Speaker 1: a d H than didn't worry about his pitching it
28:35
Speaker 1: as of right now. Al Right, so you do like
28:36
Speaker 1: the over on the Angels, right? Yeah? Alright, So let's
28:40
Speaker 1: wrap up PAULI with one more we've got here, the
28:43
Speaker 1: Arizona Diamondbacks. The over under on that one seventy seven
28:48
Speaker 1: and a half over plus one ten under minus one forty.
28:53
Speaker 1: What do you think is going to happen with the
28:55
Speaker 1: Diamondbacks after they move on from Paul Goldschmidt, Well, they
28:59
Speaker 1: move on from a lot of guys Corba and Paulock.
29:02
Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on. I mean, were they
29:06
Speaker 1: not like, let's say, like a hundred sembid games in
29:09
Speaker 1: the season last year in front Nano West. I mean,
29:13
Speaker 1: it was it looked like the Dodgers were collapsing. Then
29:16
Speaker 1: Justin Turner came back, um solidified that lineup, and then
29:20
Speaker 1: obviously the Didters took off, and then, uh, it seemed
29:25
Speaker 1: like a dumb fest. Now I get it. They they
29:28
Speaker 1: are projecting, and I hate when teams project we got
29:30
Speaker 1: this guy, we got this guy, we got that when
29:33
Speaker 1: they've never had a net bat in the big leagues.
29:35
Speaker 1: That worries me. Pitching is different than hitting, But when
29:39
Speaker 1: you keep on trading guys my Goldschmidt, I know you
29:43
Speaker 1: have to move on from some of these guys and
29:45
Speaker 1: Paula guys that can swing the bat. I understand when
29:49
Speaker 1: you get rid of guys like Corbin, because pitching can
29:51
Speaker 1: be replaced. Hitting sometimes cannot be reprojected and and replaced.
29:57
Speaker 1: And I know their minor league system is supposed at
30:00
Speaker 1: least stacked, and they're gonna bring all these guys up.
30:02
Speaker 1: But under seventy seven and a half, seventy seven and
30:05
Speaker 1: a half is almost five hundred, and you do have
30:08
Speaker 1: a week division. But now, yeah, ad Machado, okay, to
30:12
Speaker 1: the division. And you're certainly gonna add a couple more
30:14
Speaker 1: pieces to that San Diego piece. And I'm sure now
30:18
Speaker 1: Bruce Bocci's last season in San Francisco might energize them
30:21
Speaker 1: a tiny bit. And they're still not out on Bryce
30:24
Speaker 1: Harper either in San Francisco exactly. There's still a lot
30:27
Speaker 1: to be done. I just you know, I just don't
30:29
Speaker 1: see it. I do not see it. I think the
30:31
Speaker 1: Diamondbacks the year, Yeah, this is the year they boughtom out.
30:35
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I like that one as well. Um,
30:37
Speaker 1: let's do one more. Let's get crazy stick in the
30:40
Speaker 1: NL West. The l A Dodgers over under ninety four
30:42
Speaker 1: and a half minus one fifteen on both sides. They
30:46
Speaker 1: add Joe Kelly you mentioned before to their bullpen. They
30:49
Speaker 1: add a J. Pollock to the outfield. They also take
30:53
Speaker 1: on Homer Bailey, Um, they lose Quig, Matt Kemp, Alex Would.
30:58
Speaker 1: What do you think about what the Dodgers have done?
31:01
Speaker 1: I actually like what they've done and getting Yeah, I
31:04
Speaker 1: getting rid of Would. I think Wood was one of
31:07
Speaker 1: those type of guys that um is a second, third,
31:13
Speaker 1: fourth time um around the line up type of guy,
31:16
Speaker 1: second time around the league. The league started getting to him.
31:20
Speaker 1: I don't get the week theme, considering he was the
31:22
Speaker 1: only guy right handed hitter that actually stepped up in
31:24
Speaker 1: the playoffs and hit um. Maybe there's more to do
31:28
Speaker 1: with it. Felt like they were just tired of him. Honestly,
31:31
Speaker 1: it kind of felt it's felt that way for like
31:32
Speaker 1: a year and a half, two years. Well, let's let's
31:35
Speaker 1: be honest. Lan Rosen in the front office mishandled week
31:39
Speaker 1: from the day he was in. Well, here's the deal.
31:43
Speaker 1: Let me ask you a quick question. If you sign
31:45
Speaker 1: a contract and you're from another world and you don't
31:49
Speaker 1: speak in the language, how do you not have press conferences?
31:54
Speaker 1: That are the questions are already out there for him
31:57
Speaker 1: for him to know. He got bombarded from the beginning
32:00
Speaker 1: when he got here to l A and his press
32:02
Speaker 1: conferences turning in it to him blowing up his teammates
32:05
Speaker 1: when he didn't even realize what he was saying. Um.
32:09
Speaker 1: I remember one press conference him and Matt Kemp got
32:11
Speaker 1: into him when Matt Kim was a Dodger before, and
32:15
Speaker 1: Yasil didn't even understand the question. And I kept telling myself,
32:20
Speaker 1: why are they not scripting these press conferences for him?
32:24
Speaker 1: When I played, I played with Hideo Nomo, who did
32:28
Speaker 1: not know a lick of English, and he had his
32:31
Speaker 1: interpreter and he had them script out the questions for
32:35
Speaker 1: him so he would know what to say and not
32:38
Speaker 1: get bombarded. People don't understand after the game when you
32:42
Speaker 1: strike out with the bases loaded. They don't care thirty
32:45
Speaker 1: minutes after the game, when there were forty five minutes
32:47
Speaker 1: after game when they opened up those doors. There's fifty
32:51
Speaker 1: people in your locker. Now put fifty people in Yasio
32:56
Speaker 1: Puig's locker, and he does not understand one word they're saying.
33:01
Speaker 1: And that's why he became a malcontent. And that's why
33:04
Speaker 1: the Dodgers from day one mishandled him. And when somebody
33:08
Speaker 1: gives him a mentor, and that's the other part, they
33:11
Speaker 1: should have signed an older Latin player or an older
33:15
Speaker 1: Cuban player, or a mentor for him to teach him
33:18
Speaker 1: how to handle things, teach him how to get to
33:20
Speaker 1: the ballpark on time, teach him a lot of different things.
33:23
Speaker 1: When somebody does handle that, his potential is beyond and
33:27
Speaker 1: he's going to explode and the Dodgers are going to
33:30
Speaker 1: regret everything they did with But now you mentioned they
33:33
Speaker 1: did it right with Nomo, so well, they did it
33:37
Speaker 1: right with Nomo because Nomo was smarter and beyond his age.
33:40
Speaker 1: You know, Nomo was very very polished. Um right, Yeah,
33:46
Speaker 1: because he played the media the right way. Towards towards
33:50
Speaker 1: the end of his career, he knew English very well,
33:53
Speaker 1: but he still told the media that he did not
33:56
Speaker 1: know English. Oh sneaky, do you have any good today?
34:00
Speaker 1: On normal stories? One of the best stories ever was
34:03
Speaker 1: that day on Normo was a legendary beer drinker, but
34:07
Speaker 1: he only drank beer one day a week, one to
34:10
Speaker 1: two days a week. He had he had a ritual,
34:13
Speaker 1: and a ritual would be he would pitch get hammered,
34:19
Speaker 1: then he would drink the next day after, and then
34:23
Speaker 1: that day after he would stop. He would do his workout,
34:27
Speaker 1: work out, then have a big stick dinner before he
34:30
Speaker 1: would pitch. The night before he would pitch, and he
34:33
Speaker 1: would repeat, what's the most beers you've ever seen Hideo
34:35
Speaker 1: Nomo drink? Well, the story is anybody that hears this
34:41
Speaker 1: podcast needs to reach out to Paul Shoey. Okay, a
34:46
Speaker 1: picture Paul Shoey if anybody knows, because he has this
34:49
Speaker 1: tape tape. There's tape tape. It was a video tape.
34:52
Speaker 1: This is a long time ago. I'm dating myself. We
34:55
Speaker 1: were on a trip from l A to Philadelphia and
35:03
Speaker 1: he challenged our trainer to a beer drinking contest. And
35:07
Speaker 1: by about the eighteenth beer, the trainer was passed out
35:12
Speaker 1: and Nomo was keeping going. Was was keep on truck
35:15
Speaker 1: and he was going, and he kept calling me whimp
35:18
Speaker 1: in a pussy. And after about the thirty four or
35:23
Speaker 1: thirty fifth beer that Nomo stacked up into a pyramid
35:26
Speaker 1: that we have a picture of, he walked off that plane.
35:31
Speaker 1: I still can't believe he walked off that plane. Okay.
35:34
Speaker 1: And then we land in Philadelphia and we have a
35:36
Speaker 1: day off the next day, and he was very good
35:38
Speaker 1: friends with Iron Chef, and we're supposed to go to
35:44
Speaker 1: you know, lunch. Yeah, So I remember getting off the bus,
35:50
Speaker 1: getting off the plane, game, off the onto the bus,
35:52
Speaker 1: and then off the bus after having thirty six beers. Meanwhile,
35:56
Speaker 1: our trainer is catatonic, like he's literally gone. Nomo walks
36:03
Speaker 1: to his room. We're carrying our trainer to his room.
36:07
Speaker 1: And at eight thirty the next morning, I get a
36:10
Speaker 1: phone call from Nomo and he's like, dukie, and I'm
36:13
Speaker 1: like Nomo. He's like, where are you? We're waiting downstairs
36:18
Speaker 1: for you to go to meet Iron Chef. I just
36:22
Speaker 1: still to this day. I remember telling him like, how
36:26
Speaker 1: in the hell are you up right now? And he
36:29
Speaker 1: was sober as a goat. And I remember putting on
36:32
Speaker 1: my clothes real quick and having a nice little breakfast
36:35
Speaker 1: lunch with Nomo and the Iron Chef. All right, beautiful,
36:43
Speaker 1: not someone I would have expected to be a prolific drinker,
36:45
Speaker 1: but and my favorite teammate of all time, favorite teammate
36:48
Speaker 1: of all time at day, Nomo he is is any
36:51
Speaker 1: Ellen Barry Bonds. So that I know a guy who
36:56
Speaker 1: went to for three with a double off of the
36:58
Speaker 1: only unanimous Hall of Famer of all time. That's right,
37:01
Speaker 1: that's right, suck it mat alright, So Paulli, those are
37:08
Speaker 1: are over unders. Just before I let you go, I
37:10
Speaker 1: gotta ask you a question and point out something I
37:12
Speaker 1: find quite impressive. Uh you are. I'm looking at the
37:15
Speaker 1: Action Network Gap, which Chad will spank me if I
37:18
Speaker 1: don't say it's free, go download it. Um. Looking at
37:21
Speaker 1: your record on there lately and your parlay's four and
37:25
Speaker 1: thirteen on your parlays, which some people might think is
37:28
Speaker 1: not good. But your plus almost twenty six units on
37:31
Speaker 1: those parlays. The hell are you doing over there? Man?
37:35
Speaker 1: Trying to make some money? I mean, like everybody else,
37:38
Speaker 1: I'm gambling with an eye. It's called G A M
37:41
Speaker 1: B I, L I n G. You've also got almost
37:44
Speaker 1: fifty bets put in already for today. Anything in college
37:47
Speaker 1: basketball jumping out to you in particular, Oh yes, I
37:50
Speaker 1: got I got one for you. Let's have it. Robert Morris. No,
37:56
Speaker 1: not your tax consultant, the school, Robbert Morris. Okay, they're
38:02
Speaker 1: minus four tonight hosting l I U Brooklyn. So you're
38:06
Speaker 1: on Robert Morris k K l okak. That's Pauli's lock
38:13
Speaker 1: of the day. All right, everybody, thank you, PAULI Thank
38:17
Speaker 1: you everyone for listening. This has been the favorites from
38:20
Speaker 1: the Action Network for Paul Duca. I am black Jack Fletcher.
38:23
Speaker 1: Download the podcast on Apple Podcasts, radio dot com, slash,
38:27
Speaker 1: the Action Network, and anywhere you get your podcasts. We
38:31
Speaker 1: will see you next time.