Latest / Revisionist History / The Tipping Point Revisited: An Excerpt
Transcript
- 0:15Speaker 1: Pushkin. Hello, Hello, Revisions History listeners. We are back with
- 0:24Speaker 1: a very very special announcement. I have a new book
- 0:27Speaker 1: coming out. It's called Revenge of the Tipping Point. It's
- 0:31Speaker 1: a sequel to The Tipping Point, my very first book
- 0:33Speaker 1: from twenty five years ago. It's like a little silver
- 0:37Speaker 1: anniversary present for you, my loyal listeners. The original Tipping
- 0:41Speaker 1: Point was about how the best way to understand ideas
- 0:44Speaker 1: and behaviors and social change was to use the model
- 0:48Speaker 1: of the epidemic. This time around, in Revenge of the
- 0:51Speaker 1: Tipping Point, I'm taking those ideas and going one big
- 0:56Speaker 1: step deeper. Now I'm interested in the dark side. I
- 1:02Speaker 1: go to Miami and try and figure out why Miami
- 1:04Speaker 1: is so strange. I go to a seemingly perfect little
- 1:08Speaker 1: town called Popular Growth, where a tragedy is unfolding. I
- 1:11Speaker 1: have a chapter on the Holocaust that I think will
- 1:14Speaker 1: completely surprise you. Yet another takedown of Harvard University. I know,
- 1:19Speaker 1: I know, I'm a broken record, but I'm inordinately proud
- 1:22Speaker 1: of this one. On and on a mixture of narrative
- 1:25Speaker 1: ingredients baked into a highly entertaining suffle. And today we're
- 1:31Speaker 1: sharing an exclusive preview of Chapter one of the audiobook
- 1:37Speaker 1: of Revenge of the Tipping Point. It's all about bank
- 1:39Speaker 1: robbers and doctors. And that's all I'm going to tell you,
- 1:42Speaker 1: because you'll have to listen to find out more. But
- 1:45Speaker 1: that's not all. Coming up in the next couple of
- 1:48Speaker 1: weeks on revisionist history, we have all kinds of goodies
- 1:51Speaker 1: related to my book. We've got a two part episode
- 1:54Speaker 1: on maybe my favorite criminal trial ever, something I call
- 1:58Speaker 1: the Georgetown Massacre. Then an episode where I go back
- 2:02Speaker 1: and audit the chapter I wrote on crime in the
- 2:04Speaker 1: original Tipping Point. Did I get it right? And finally
- 2:08Speaker 1: we're going to run the comment station I'm having with
- 2:10Speaker 1: the editor of The New Yorker, David Remnick, at the
- 2:12Speaker 1: ninety second Street y in New York. Stay tuned and
- 2:16Speaker 1: for now enjoy this preview of Revenge of the Tipping Point.
- 2:21Speaker 1: You can find Revenge of the Tipping Point wherever you
- 2:24Speaker 1: get your audiobooks. Part one three Puzzles, Chapter one Casper
- 2:35Speaker 1: and Sea Dog. It was just like wildfire. Everyone was
- 2:41Speaker 1: jumping into the gate. One In the early afternoon of
- 2:49Speaker 1: November twenty ninth, nineteen eighty three, the Los Angeles Field
- 2:52Speaker 1: office of the Federal Bureau of Investigation received a call
- 2:56Speaker 1: from a Bank of America branch in the Melrose District.
- 3:00Speaker 1: The call was taken by an FBI agent named Linda Webster.
- 3:04Speaker 1: She was the person in the office who fielded what
- 3:07Speaker 1: were known as two elevens shorts. A bank robbery's there
- 3:11Speaker 1: had just been a hold up. She was told the
- 3:13Speaker 1: suspect was a young white male wearing a New York
- 3:16Speaker 1: Yankees baseball cap, slender, polite Southern accent, well dressed. He
- 3:22Speaker 1: said please and thank you. Webster turned to her colleague,
- 3:27Speaker 1: William Rader, who ran the FBI's local bank robbery division.
- 3:31Speaker 1: Bill it's the Yankee. The Yankee Bandit had been active
- 3:39Speaker 1: in Los Angeles since July of that year. He had
- 3:43Speaker 1: hit one bank after another, slipping away each time with
- 3:46Speaker 1: thousands of dollars in a leather suitcase. Raider was growing frustrated.
- 3:51Speaker 1: Who was this man? All the bureau had to go
- 3:54Speaker 1: on was that telltale baseball cap, hence the nickname the
- 3:58Speaker 1: Yankee Bandit. Half an hour passed, Webster got another to eleven.
- 4:04Speaker 1: This one was from a City National Bank sixteen blocks
- 4:07Speaker 1: west in the Fairfax District. They had been taken for
- 4:11Speaker 1: two thousand, three hundred and forty nine dollars. The caller
- 4:15Speaker 1: gave Webster the details. She looked at Raider, Bill, it's
- 4:19Speaker 1: the Yankee again. Forty five minutes after that, the Yankee
- 4:24Speaker 1: hit a Security Pacific National Bank in Centry City, then
- 4:28Speaker 1: immediately walked one block down the street and held up
- 4:31Speaker 1: a First Interstate Bank for two thousand, five hundred and
- 4:34Speaker 1: five dollars. Bill, it's the Yankee twice, back to back.
- 4:40Speaker 1: Less than an hour passed, the phone rang again. The
- 4:43Speaker 1: Yankee had just hid an Imperial Bank on Wilshire Boulevard.
- 4:46Speaker 1: If you drive from Centry City to the Imperial Bank
- 4:49Speaker 1: on Wiltshire, you pass right by the FBI's office. He
- 4:53Speaker 1: probably waived at us. Raider told Webster they were now unnoticed.
- 4:58Speaker 1: History was being made. They waited, could the Yankee possibly
- 5:02Speaker 1: strike again? At five point thirty, the phone rang. An
- 5:07Speaker 1: unknown white male slender an accent Yankee cap had just
- 5:11Speaker 1: robbed the First Interstate Bank in Encino, fifteen minutes north
- 5:15Speaker 1: on the four or five Freeway, for two thousand, four
- 5:18Speaker 1: hundred and thirteen dollars. Bill, it's the Yankee. One man,
- 5:24Speaker 1: four hours, six banks. It was a New World's record,
- 5:30Speaker 1: Raider would later write in his memoirs Still Unbroken two,
- 5:40Speaker 1: no criminal has ever held as exalted a position in
- 5:43Speaker 1: American culture as the bank robber. In the years after
- 5:47Speaker 1: the Civil War, the country was riveted by the exploits
- 5:50Speaker 1: of bands such as the James Younger Gang, who terrorized
- 5:54Speaker 1: the wild West with bank hold ups and trained robbers.
- 5:57Speaker 1: In the Depression, bank robbers became celebrities. Bonnie and Clyde,
- 6:02Speaker 1: pretty Boy Floyd John Dillinger, Billy brought.
- 6:05Speaker 2: To Chicago recaptured after he had escaped from Lima, Ohio.
- 6:09Speaker 2: Despert public enemy now rises to fame as an underworld hero.
- 6:13Speaker 2: Where is Clyde Beryl and Bonnie Parker who died as
- 6:17Speaker 2: they lived by a gun.
- 6:20Speaker 1: But in the years after the Second World War, the
- 6:23Speaker 1: crime seemed to be fading. In nineteen sixty nine, a
- 6:28Speaker 1: total of thirteen hundred and eighteen banks were robbed across
- 6:32Speaker 1: the entire United States, a modest number given the size
- 6:36Speaker 1: of the country. There was speculation that bank robberies were
- 6:39Speaker 1: headed toward extinction. Few major crimes had higher arrest and
- 6:44Speaker 1: conviction rates. Banks felt they had learned how to protect themselves.
- 6:48Speaker 1: A definitive study at bank robbery was entitled nothing to lose,
- 6:52Speaker 1: meaning that the act seemed so irrational that its perpetrators
- 6:56Speaker 1: must have run out of other options. It seemed like
- 6:59Speaker 1: the twentieth century equivalent of cattle rustling, who does it anymore?
- 7:05Speaker 1: But then came an epidemic. In a single year, from
- 7:09Speaker 1: nineteen sixty nine to nineteen seventy the number of bank
- 7:12Speaker 1: robberies nearly doubled, then rose again in nineteen seventy one,
- 7:17Speaker 1: and once more in nineteen seventy two. In nineteen seventy four,
- 7:21Speaker 1: three thousand, five hundred and seventeen banks were robbed. Two
- 7:25Speaker 1: years later, the number was four thousand, five hundred and
- 7:28Speaker 1: sixty five. By the beginning of the nineteen eighties, they
- 7:32Speaker 1: were five times more bank robberies than there had been
- 7:35Speaker 1: at the end of the nineteen sixties. It was a
- 7:38Speaker 1: crime wave without precedent, and it was just getting started.
- 7:43Speaker 1: In nineteen ninety one, the FBI fielded a two to
- 7:46Speaker 1: eleven call from a bank somewhere in the United States
- 7:49Speaker 1: nine thousand, three hundred and eighty eight times, And the
- 7:54Speaker 1: center of this astonishing surge was the city of Los.
- 7:58Speaker 2: Angeles, the sprawling city that's home to Hollywood movie capital
- 8:03Speaker 2: of the world is also the bank robbery capital of
- 8:06Speaker 2: the world.
- 8:07Speaker 1: A quarter of all bank robberies in the US in
- 8:11Speaker 1: those years happened in Los Angeles. There were years when
- 8:14Speaker 1: the local FBI office handled as many as twenty six
- 8:18Speaker 1: hundred bank robberies. So many robbers robbing so many banks
- 8:23Speaker 1: that Raider and the Bureau were forced to give them
- 8:25Speaker 1: nicknames to keep them straight. The man who disguised himself
- 8:29Speaker 1: with surgical gauze became the Mummy Bandit. The man who
- 8:33Speaker 1: are a single glove became naturally the Michael Jackson Bandit.
- 8:36Speaker 1: A two man team who wore fake mustaches with the
- 8:39Speaker 1: Marx brothers. A short o beast robber was Miss Piggy.
- 8:43Speaker 1: A beautiful robber was the Miss America Bandit. A guy
- 8:47Speaker 1: who waved a knife was the Benni Hahonna Bandit. On
- 8:50Speaker 1: and on it went. They were robbers named after Johnny
- 8:53Speaker 1: Cash and Robert de Niro. One group robbed in threes,
- 8:56Speaker 1: one dressed as a biker, another as a cop, and
- 8:59Speaker 1: the third as a construction worker. Do you need to
- 9:02Speaker 1: ask what they were called? This was the nineteen eighties.
- 9:06Speaker 1: They were known as the Village People. It was just
- 9:10Speaker 1: like wildfire, remembers Peter Hoolihan, one of the unofficial historians
- 9:15Speaker 1: of the La Bank robbery Surge. Everybody was jumping into
- 9:19Speaker 1: the game. Ten years into the surge, incredibly, things got
- 9:25Speaker 1: much worse. The first generation of Ellie robbers were like
- 9:29Speaker 1: the Yankee Bandit. They walked up to a teller and
- 9:32Speaker 1: they had a gun, scooped up whatever cash was on hand,
- 9:35Speaker 1: and fled. People called them a bit dismissively note passers.
- 9:40Speaker 1: But then came a two man group called the West
- 9:42Speaker 1: Hills Bandits. The West Sails Gang went back to the
- 9:45Speaker 1: grand tradition of Jesse, James and Bonnie and Clyde. They
- 9:49Speaker 1: came in hot in wigs and masks, waving assault weapons.
- 9:53Speaker 1: They would force their way into the teller's cage and
- 9:56Speaker 1: clean out the entire bank, empty the vault if they could,
- 9:59Speaker 1: before executing a meticulously planned escape. The Bandits had a
- 10:04Speaker 1: bunker in the San Fernando Valley filled with military grade
- 10:08Speaker 1: weapons and twenty seven thousand rounds of ammunition to prepare
- 10:12Speaker 1: for what their leader believed was an imminent armageddon. Even
- 10:16Speaker 1: by the standards of nineteen nineties Los Angeles, the West
- 10:19Speaker 1: Hills Gang was a little crazy. On their fifth robbery,
- 10:25Speaker 1: the West Hills Gang broke into the vault of a
- 10:27Speaker 1: Wells Fargo bank in Tarzana and made off with four
- 10:30Speaker 1: hundred and thirty seven thousand dollars more than one million
- 10:34Speaker 1: in today's dollars. And then Wells Fargo made a crucial mistake.
- 10:39Speaker 1: The bank told the press exactly how much the West
- 10:42Speaker 1: Hills Gang had stolen. It was like putting a match
- 10:45Speaker 1: to kindling. Four hundred and thirty seven thousand, Are you
- 10:50Speaker 1: kidding me? One of the first to take notice was
- 10:53Speaker 1: an enterprising twenty three year old named Robert Sheldon Brown.
- 10:58Speaker 1: His street name was Casper. Casper did the math. I've robbed,
- 11:03Speaker 1: I've done burglaries, I've done a little bit of everything,
- 11:05Speaker 1: he would explain later. But the money couldn't compare to
- 11:08Speaker 1: the bank. You could go into a bank and in
- 11:11Speaker 1: two minutes get what on the streets would take you
- 11:13Speaker 1: six or seven weeks to get. John Wiley, one of
- 11:17Speaker 1: the prosecutors who eventually brought Casper to justice, remembers him
- 11:21Speaker 1: as a standout. He said, Casper was really ripped and
- 11:25Speaker 1: really smart.
- 11:26Speaker 3: Here he is he figured out the problem with robbing
- 11:30Speaker 3: banks is going into the bank, so he got somebody
- 11:34Speaker 3: else to do that. You would think, how could you
- 11:36Speaker 3: possibly get someone to rob a bank for you? And
- 11:40Speaker 3: that was his particular talent, was recruiting people to rob
- 11:46Speaker 3: banksworm and he recruited an unbelievable number of folks. He
- 11:52Speaker 3: was kind of a producer in Hollywood terms.
- 11:56Speaker 1: Casper had a partner in crime, Donzel Thompson, also known
- 12:00Speaker 1: as Sea Dog. They would pick a bank they thought
- 12:02Speaker 1: was ripe for a hit, then it'd find a getaway car,
- 12:05Speaker 1: known in gangs speak as the g ride. In the
- 12:09Speaker 1: early nineteen nineties, Los Angeles also experienced an astonishing surge
- 12:13Speaker 1: in carjackings, which were treated in the press as another
- 12:17Speaker 1: indication of the random mayhem sweeping the streets. But a
- 12:21Speaker 1: good chunk of it was actually just Casper and Sea Dog.
- 12:25Speaker 1: They had a guy they paid to acquire their g rides.
- 12:28Speaker 1: If you were doing as many bank robberies as Casper was,
- 12:31Speaker 1: you needed a lot of cars. Then he would pick
- 12:36Speaker 1: the crew Prosecutor Wiley.
- 12:38Speaker 3: Again, a lot of his robbers were just kids. I
- 12:43Speaker 3: think he probably paid some of them nothing. He just
- 12:47Speaker 3: coerced him into robbing. He was a big threatening guy,
- 12:50Speaker 3: and you know he was a member of the role
- 12:52Speaker 3: in the sixties was a very notorious crips gang.
- 12:57Speaker 1: Wiley recalled a particular recruit who was very young, no
- 13:00Speaker 1: more than thirteen or fourteen.
- 13:03Speaker 3: I remember he took the kid out of school and said,
- 13:06Speaker 3: you know, when can you rob this bank for me?
- 13:09Speaker 3: And the guy said during nutrition break. So during nutrition
- 13:14Speaker 3: break they picked him up and Brown and Thompson explained
- 13:18Speaker 3: how to do it. You go in scurbate to death,
- 13:23Speaker 3: get the money, get out.
- 13:26Speaker 1: Casper taught his recruits a technique he called go and
- 13:29Speaker 1: com akazi. His kids would come busting in, waving their
- 13:33Speaker 1: machine pistols and assault rifles, firing rounds at the ceiling
- 13:36Speaker 1: and screaming obscenities on the floor.
- 13:39Speaker 2: Mother.
- 13:40Speaker 1: They would stuff all the cash they could into pillowcases,
- 13:43Speaker 1: grab wallets, and rip rings off women's fingers if they
- 13:47Speaker 1: wanted a little extra treasure for the road. On at
- 13:51Speaker 1: least two jobs, Casper borrowed a school bus to ferry
- 13:55Speaker 1: his young charges to safety. Another time he borrowed a
- 13:59Speaker 1: postal service truck. Casper had imagination he would exercise managerial
- 14:05Speaker 1: oversight of his operations from a position of safety parked
- 14:08Speaker 1: in a car somewhere far down the block, then follow
- 14:11Speaker 1: his hand picked team as they raced through the streets.
- 14:15Speaker 3: These guys knew if they tried to get away with
- 14:17Speaker 3: them all the money that have these two roll in
- 14:21Speaker 3: sixties crips after him, and that would not improve their lives.
- 14:25Speaker 1: The g ride would be abandoned. The whole crew would
- 14:27Speaker 1: retreat to Casper's hideout, usually in a motel, where he
- 14:31Speaker 1: would pay them a pittance and let them go. They
- 14:34Speaker 1: were kids, Chances are they would get caught, but Casper
- 14:37Speaker 1: didn't care. Here's Wiley describing his general attitude.
- 14:41Speaker 3: I mean, okay, so that wasn't great. My guys got caught.
- 14:44Speaker 3: Now we have to get new guys. But we do
- 14:46Speaker 3: that all the time.
- 14:48Speaker 1: In just four years, Casper produced one hundred and seventy
- 14:53Speaker 1: five robberies, which remains a lifetime bank robbery world record,
- 14:57Speaker 1: crushing the Yankee Bandits previous mark of seventy two. Casper
- 15:02Speaker 1: and Sea Dog even came close to the Yankee Bandits
- 15:05Speaker 1: one day mark of six heists on a single day.
- 15:08Speaker 1: In a August of nineteen ninety one, they produced five
- 15:12Speaker 1: a first interstate bank on Losienega Boulevard, then banks in
- 15:15Speaker 1: Eagle Rock, Pasadena, Monterey Park, and Montebello. And remember the
- 15:21Speaker 1: Yankee bandit was a one man show. Casper was doing
- 15:24Speaker 1: something infinitely more difficult, organizing and supervising teams of robbers.
- 15:30Speaker 1: Once Casper showed the world how easy it was to
- 15:33Speaker 1: take over a bank, other gangs jumped in. The eight
- 15:37Speaker 1: tray gangster crips started putting together cruise. A duo called
- 15:40Speaker 1: the Nasty Boys did almost thirty takeovers in under a
- 15:44Speaker 1: year just the two of them. The Nasty Boys were nasty.
- 15:48Speaker 1: They liked to herd everyone into the bank vault, talk
- 15:51Speaker 1: loudly about executions, and fire their guns next to people's
- 15:55Speaker 1: ears just for the fun of it.
- 15:57Speaker 3: In retrospect, nineteen ninety two turned out to be the
- 16:00Speaker 3: peak year for bank robberies. Two thousand, six hundred and
- 16:04Speaker 3: forty one robberies in one.
- 16:06Speaker 1: Year Wiley again.
- 16:08Speaker 3: So that averages one bank robbery every forty five minutes
- 16:12Speaker 3: for each banking day, and the worst day was twenty
- 16:17Speaker 3: eight bank robberies in one day. This drove the FBI
- 16:23Speaker 3: completely crazy. I mean they were completely exhausted.
- 16:27Speaker 1: Robbing a bank takes minutes. Investigating a bank robbery takes hours.
- 16:32Speaker 1: As the robberies piled up, the FBI would fall further
- 16:36Speaker 1: and further behind.
- 16:38Speaker 3: So if you're having twenty seven robberies a day, if
- 16:40Speaker 3: one team is committing five robberies in one day, I mean,
- 16:44Speaker 3: just think physically, how you investigate that. These guys are
- 16:48Speaker 3: driving all over town as fast as they can robbing,
- 16:52Speaker 3: so just keeping up with them in La traffic is
- 16:54Speaker 3: a problem. You get to the bank and how many
- 16:58Speaker 3: people have witnessed the robbery, Well, how many people were
- 17:00Speaker 3: in the bank, You know, twenty people, So you need
- 17:04Speaker 3: to get witness statements from twenty witnesses. This is a
- 17:08Speaker 3: big project.
- 17:10Speaker 1: Then just as you start, what happens.
- 17:14Speaker 3: You're on the scene for five or ten minutes, and
- 17:16Speaker 3: there's another bank robbery emergency somewhere across town. The FBI
- 17:21Speaker 3: was being run ragged.
- 17:23Speaker 1: The city of Los Angeles was the bank robbery capital
- 17:27Speaker 1: of the world. Wiley held up a chart of bank
- 17:29Speaker 1: robberies in Los Angeles from the nineteen seventies through the
- 17:33Speaker 1: nineteen nineties.
- 17:34Speaker 3: There was no reason to think it would crust. If
- 17:37Speaker 3: you look at the trend line, it just seems like
- 17:41Speaker 3: it's heading for the moon.
- 17:43Speaker 1: The FBI put fifty agents on the case. Over the
- 17:46Speaker 1: course of many months, they gathered what they could from
- 17:48Speaker 1: Casper and Sea Dogs, terrified recruits, sorted through the layers
- 17:52Speaker 1: of deception the two used to hide their assets and
- 17:55Speaker 1: track them from one address to another across South Los Angeles.
- 18:00Speaker 1: It took forever to get a grand jury to indict
- 18:02Speaker 1: Casper and Sea Dog, because what had they done? Nothing,
- 18:06Speaker 1: They didn't rob any banks. They were just sitting in
- 18:08Speaker 1: a car down the street. All the FBI had was
- 18:13Speaker 1: a testimony of terrified teenagers who skipped school between lunch
- 18:17Speaker 1: and recess. Finally, prosecutors thought they had enough evidence. They
- 18:23Speaker 1: found Sea Dog at his grandmother's house in Carson and
- 18:27Speaker 1: arrested Casper as he stepped out of a cab with
- 18:30Speaker 1: the two of them behind bars. The bank robbery fever
- 18:33Speaker 1: that had seized Los Angeles finally broke. Within roughly a year,
- 18:38Speaker 1: the number of robberies in the city dropped thirty percent,
- 18:41Speaker 1: then drifted even lower. Bank robberies didn't head for the moon.
- 18:46Speaker 1: The contagion passed. When Casper and Sea Dog got out
- 18:54Speaker 1: of federal prison in the summer of twenty twenty three,
- 18:57Speaker 1: they shopped their story around Hollywood and took meetings with
- 19:00Speaker 1: film producers. Movie executives who heard their story were incredulous
- 19:06Speaker 1: that happened here. Yes it did. Three. I want to
- 19:24Speaker 1: begin Revenge of the Tipping Point with a series of puzzles,
- 19:28Speaker 1: three interconnected stories that seem at first glance to defy explanation.
- 19:34Speaker 1: The third involves a little town called pop Lagrove. The
- 19:38Speaker 1: second involves the story of a man named Philip s Forms.
- 19:43Speaker 1: And this first chapter involves the exploits of the Yankee
- 19:46Speaker 1: Bandit and Casper and Sea Dog. The Los Angeles bank
- 19:52Speaker 1: robbery crisis of the early nineteen nineties was an epidemic.
- 19:57Speaker 1: It fit all rules. This was not an outbreak generated
- 20:00Speaker 1: inside each robber like a toothache. It was contagious. A
- 20:04Speaker 1: low grade fever surfaced across the United States at the
- 20:08Speaker 1: end of the nineteen six sixties. In the nineteen eighties,
- 20:11Speaker 1: the Yankee Bandit caught that bug in Los Angeles. The
- 20:15Speaker 1: West Hills Bandits later picked up that virus, and in
- 20:18Speaker 1: their hands it mutated into something darker and more violent.
- 20:22Speaker 1: They passed a new Strainnan to Caspar and Sea Dog,
- 20:25Speaker 1: who reinvented the process outsourcing the labor and scaling up
- 20:30Speaker 1: dramatically like the late twentieth century capitalists they were. And
- 20:34Speaker 1: from there the infection went clear across the city to
- 20:37Speaker 1: the Eight Tray gangsters and the Nasty Boys, and on
- 20:40Speaker 1: and on, sweeping up hundreds of young men, until by
- 20:44Speaker 1: the time the bank takeover boom peaked in Los Angeles,
- 20:47Speaker 1: the small time note passing of the Yankee Bandit era
- 20:51Speaker 1: seemed like a dim memory. Socio epidemics are propelled by
- 20:58Speaker 1: the efforts of an exceptional few people who play outsized
- 21:03Speaker 1: social roles, and that was exactly how the LA outbreak unfolded.
- 21:08Speaker 1: This was never a mass participation event like one of
- 21:11Speaker 1: those big city marathons where tons of thousands of people
- 21:14Speaker 1: sign up. It was a reign of mayhem, driven by
- 21:18Speaker 1: a small number of people who robbed over and over
- 21:22Speaker 1: and over again. The Yankee Bandit robbed sixty four banks
- 21:26Speaker 1: in nine months before the FBI finally grabbed him. He
- 21:30Speaker 1: went to prison for ten years, got out, then robbed
- 21:33Speaker 1: eight more banks. The Nasty Boys did twenty seven banks.
- 21:37Speaker 1: Casper and Sea Dog masterminded one hundred and seventy five.
- 21:41Speaker 1: If you focused only on the Yankee Bandit, Casper and
- 21:44Speaker 1: the Nasty Boys. You would have a pretty complete picture
- 21:47Speaker 1: of what happened in Los Angeles in the nineteen eighties
- 21:50Speaker 1: and early nineteen nineties, A contagious phenomenon that rose and tipped,
- 21:56Speaker 1: fueled by the extraordinary actions of a few Casper, while
- 22:00Speaker 1: he said, is the super spreader if you want to
- 22:04Speaker 1: talk about epidemics, was the context in the nineteen eighties
- 22:08Speaker 1: and the early nineteen nineties ripe for a bank robbery explosion? Yes,
- 22:12Speaker 1: it was. Between the nineteen seventies and the end of
- 22:16Speaker 1: the nineteen nineties, the number of bank branches in the
- 22:19Speaker 1: United States tripled. Casper and Sea Dog were shooting fish
- 22:23Speaker 1: in a barrel. The fever that swept Los Angeles in
- 22:27Speaker 1: the late nineteen eighties and early nineteen nineties makes perfect sense,
- 22:31Speaker 1: except for one thing. There's a puzzle.
- 22:40Speaker 3: Four.
- 22:44Speaker 1: In the early morning of March ninth, nineteen fifty, Willie
- 22:48Speaker 1: Sutton rose and applied a heavy coat of makeup to
- 22:51Speaker 1: his face. The previous evening he had dyed his hair
- 22:55Speaker 1: several shades lighter, so that he was almost blonde, and
- 22:59Speaker 1: now he wanted to pair that with an olive complexion.
- 23:03Speaker 1: He applied mascara to his eyebrows. To give them some substance.
- 23:07Speaker 1: He stuffed bits of cork inside his nostrils to broaden
- 23:10Speaker 1: his nose. That he put on a gray suit, tailored
- 23:14Speaker 1: and padded in such a way as to alter his silhouette. Satisfied,
- 23:18Speaker 1: did he no longer look like Willy Sutton? Willie Sutton
- 23:21Speaker 1: left his house in Staten Island for Sunnyside, Queen's to
- 23:25Speaker 1: a Manufacture's Trust Company branch at forty fourth Street and
- 23:29Speaker 1: Queen's Boulevard in New York City. Sutton had spent the
- 23:33Speaker 1: previous three weeks standing across the street every morning, learning
- 23:37Speaker 1: the routines of the bank's employees. He liked what he saw.
- 23:42Speaker 1: There was an elevated subway stop across the street, a
- 23:45Speaker 1: bus stop, and a taxi stand. The street was busy
- 23:49Speaker 1: and Sutton like crowds. The bank's guard, a slow moving
- 23:53Speaker 1: man named Weston who lived nearby, arrived every morning at
- 23:56Speaker 1: eight thirty, engrossed in his newspaper. Between eight thirty and nine,
- 24:01Speaker 1: he would let in the bank's other employees, culminating in
- 24:04Speaker 1: the bank's manager, mister Hoffman, who arrived like clockwork at
- 24:09Speaker 1: nine o one. The Manufacturer's Trust opened to the public
- 24:13Speaker 1: at ten o'clock, much later than most bank branches. This
- 24:17Speaker 1: too made Sutton happy. He regarded the time between the
- 24:21Speaker 1: arrival of the first employee and the arrival of the
- 24:24Speaker 1: first customer as his time, and his time in this
- 24:28Speaker 1: case would be more than an hour. At eight twenty,
- 24:32Speaker 1: Sutton mingled with the crowd waiting at the bus stop.
- 24:35Speaker 1: A few minutes later, the Castilian Weston turned the corner,
- 24:39Speaker 1: lost in his newspaper. As Weston took out his keys
- 24:42Speaker 1: to open the door, Sutton slipped in behind him. Weston
- 24:46Speaker 1: turned in shock. Sutton looked him in the eye and
- 24:49Speaker 1: said quietly, come inside. I want to talk to you.
- 24:55Speaker 1: Sutton wasn't a fan of guns. Guns for him were props.
- 24:59Speaker 1: His real weapon was a quiet authority that compelled the
- 25:02Speaker 1: attention of others. He explained to the guard what would
- 25:06Speaker 1: happen next. First they would let him one of his accomplices.
- 25:10Speaker 1: Then the remaining employees would be admitted, exactly as they
- 25:15Speaker 1: were each morning. As each one entered, Sutton's accomplice would
- 25:19Speaker 1: emerge and lead them by the elbow to a row
- 25:22Speaker 1: of chairs he'd set up in preparation. Once you've taken
- 25:26Speaker 1: control of the bank, Sutton would write years later in
- 25:29Speaker 1: his memoirs. Sutton was sufficiently famous by that point that
- 25:34Speaker 1: he wrote not one, but two sets of memoirs. Like
- 25:37Speaker 1: a statesman who feels the need to respond to the
- 25:39Speaker 1: turns of history, it doesn't really matter who comes to
- 25:43Speaker 1: the door. A trio of painters once arrived unexpectedly while
- 25:47Speaker 1: I was taking a bank in Pennsylvania, and I simply
- 25:49Speaker 1: told them to spread out their drop cloths and go
- 25:52Speaker 1: to work. The pay you guys get, the bank can't
- 25:55Speaker 1: afford to have you hang around doing nothing. They're insured
- 25:58Speaker 1: against bank robbers, but nobody would insure them against you robbers.
- 26:03Speaker 1: All during the robbery, I was able to keep up
- 26:05Speaker 1: a line of chatter about how I could have retired
- 26:07Speaker 1: by now if we bankrobb had as stronger union as
- 26:10Speaker 1: they did. Everyone had a good time, and by the
- 26:13Speaker 1: time we walked out the door with the money, they
- 26:15Speaker 1: had one of the walls completely painted. Sutton was terrifyingly charming.
- 26:22Speaker 1: Did the employees of the Manufacturer's Trust Company realize that
- 26:26Speaker 1: the famous Willie Sutton was robbing them that morning? Undoubtedly
- 26:32Speaker 1: they filed into the conference room one by one. Don't
- 26:35Speaker 1: worry folks. He told them, it's only money, and it
- 26:38Speaker 1: isn't your money. At nine oh five, four minutes late,
- 26:43Speaker 1: mister Hoffman, the manager, arrived, Sutton sat him down. If
- 26:48Speaker 1: you give me any trouble, I want you to know
- 26:50Speaker 1: that some of these here employees of yours will be shot.
- 26:54Speaker 1: I don't want you to have any false illusions about that. Now.
- 26:59Speaker 1: Perhaps you don't care about your own safety, but the
- 27:02Speaker 1: health of these here employees of yours are your responsibility.
- 27:07Speaker 1: If anything happens to them, the blame will be yours,
- 27:11Speaker 1: not mine. It was a bluff, of course, but it
- 27:15Speaker 1: worked every time. He scooped up the money from the vault,
- 27:18Speaker 1: ambled out the door to a waiting getaway car, and
- 27:21Speaker 1: vanished into the New York City traffic. Willie Sutton was
- 27:26Speaker 1: the New York version of Casper, although that doesn't quite
- 27:30Speaker 1: do Willie Sutton justice. Nobody knew much about Casper at
- 27:34Speaker 1: the time he was orchestrating his bank robbery spree. Even
- 27:37Speaker 1: his trial barely made a dent in the news. Not
- 27:41Speaker 1: so Willie Sutton.
- 27:42Speaker 2: Willy Sutton, whose captur ends a five year manhunt still
- 27:46Speaker 2: carrying a big bank roll, the nation's most elusive bank
- 27:48Speaker 2: robber is arrested in Brooklyn, America's most wanted criminal, His
- 27:53Speaker 2: arrest brings promotion.
- 27:54Speaker 1: Sutton was a celebrity. He did it's starlit's. He was
- 27:57Speaker 1: a master of disguise. He made not one, but two
- 28:01Speaker 1: daring escapes from prison. He was once asked why do
- 28:04Speaker 1: you rob banks, and he replied, because that's where the
- 28:07Speaker 1: money is. Later he would deny having said that, but
- 28:10Speaker 1: it didn't matter. To this day. His quip is known
- 28:13Speaker 1: as Sutton's law, and it's used to instruct medical students
- 28:17Speaker 1: on the importance of considering the likeliest diagnosis. First, Hollywood
- 28:22Speaker 1: made a movie about his life. A writer turned his
- 28:25Speaker 1: story into a biographical novel. In Today's Dollars, He claimed
- 28:28Speaker 1: to have stolen more than twenty million over the course
- 28:32Speaker 1: of his career. Casper wasn't even in the same tax
- 28:36Speaker 1: bracket as Willy Sutton, assuming of course, that they paid taxes,
- 28:40Speaker 1: which neither of them did. The point is that if
- 28:44Speaker 1: anyone were to start a bank robbery epidemic, you'd think
- 28:47Speaker 1: it would be Willy Sutton. You would think that the
- 28:50Speaker 1: impressionable criminal classes of New York City would look at
- 28:53Speaker 1: slick Willie effortlessly slipping into bank branches without firing a shot,
- 28:58Speaker 1: and making off with the king's ransom and say to themselves,
- 29:02Speaker 1: I can do that. In epidemiology, there's a term called
- 29:06Speaker 1: the index case, which refer to the person who kicks
- 29:10Speaker 1: off an epidemic. We're going to talk about one of
- 29:13Speaker 1: the most fascinating index cases in recent history later in
- 29:17Speaker 1: this book. Willie Sutton should have been the index case, right.
- 29:22Speaker 1: He turned the grubby job of holding up a bank
- 29:25Speaker 1: into a work of art. But Willie Sutton did not
- 29:30Speaker 1: start a bank robbery epidemic in New York City, not
- 29:33Speaker 1: in the nineteen forties and fifties, in his heyday, nor
- 29:37Speaker 1: in the years afterward, as he wrote one memoir after another.
- 29:42Speaker 1: After talking his way out of prison in nineteen sixty nine,
- 29:45Speaker 1: claiming ill health, he would live another eleven years, Sutton
- 29:49Speaker 1: recreated himself as an expert on prison reform, giving lectures
- 29:53Speaker 1: across the country. He consulted with banks on how to
- 29:57Speaker 1: prevent bank robberies. He even did a TV commercial for
- 30:00Speaker 1: a credit card company pioneering a card with a photo
- 30:03Speaker 1: on it.
- 30:04Speaker 4: They call it the face God. You see it as
- 30:06Speaker 4: your face right on it. Now when I say, Lily Sutton,
- 30:10Speaker 4: if I believe me.
- 30:12Speaker 1: Did that make the world want to be Willie Sutton?
- 30:15Speaker 1: Apparently not. In the days of Casper, New York City
- 30:19Speaker 1: suffered only a fraction of the bank robberies that Los
- 30:23Speaker 1: Angeles did. An epidemic, by definition, is a contagious phenomenon
- 30:30Speaker 1: that does not respect borders. When COVID first emerged in
- 30:34Speaker 1: China in late twenty nineteen, epidemiologists worried that it would
- 30:38Speaker 1: spread everywhere, and they were absolutely right. Yet in the
- 30:42Speaker 1: bank case, the fever engulfed Los Angeles but skipped other
- 30:47Speaker 1: cities altogether. Why this is the first of the three puzzles,
- 30:56Speaker 1: and the answer involves a famous observation made by a
- 31:00Speaker 1: physician named John Weinberg five life. In nineteen sixty seven,
- 31:13Speaker 1: fresh out of his medical training, John Wenburg got a
- 31:17Speaker 1: job in Vermont as part of a federally funded operation
- 31:20Speaker 1: called the Regional Medical Program. These were the years of
- 31:24Speaker 1: the Great Society, when the US government was making a
- 31:28Speaker 1: concerted effort to expand the American's social safety net. Weinberg's
- 31:33Speaker 1: job was to map the quality of care across the
- 31:36Speaker 1: state to make sure everyone was getting access to the
- 31:39Speaker 1: same standard of medicine. He was young and idealistic. He
- 31:44Speaker 1: had studied under some of the best minds in medicine
- 31:47Speaker 1: at Johns Hopkins University. Weinberg arrived in Vermont, he said later,
- 31:52Speaker 1: still believing quote in the general paradigm that science was
- 31:56Speaker 1: advancing and that it was being translated rationally into effective
- 32:01Speaker 1: care end quote. Vermont had two hundred and fifty one towns.
- 32:07Speaker 1: Weinburg began by dividing up those communities according to where
- 32:11Speaker 1: their local residents got their medical care. That left him
- 32:15Speaker 1: with thirteen hospital districts across the state. He then calculated
- 32:21Speaker 1: the amount of money that was spent on medical care
- 32:23Speaker 1: in each of those districts. Wenberg assumed that what he
- 32:27Speaker 1: would see was that in some far away corner of
- 32:30Speaker 1: Vermont where there wasn't much money, spending would be low,
- 32:34Speaker 1: and by the same logic, in wealthier communities such as Burlington,
- 32:38Speaker 1: the biggest city in the state, home to the University
- 32:41Speaker 1: of Vermont and Champlain College, where the hospitals were the
- 32:44Speaker 1: newest and most sophisticated and the doctors more likely to
- 32:47Speaker 1: have trained at prestigious medical schools, spending would be a
- 32:51Speaker 1: bit higher. He was completely wrong. Yes, they were differences
- 32:58Speaker 1: in spending from one hospital district to the next. But
- 33:01Speaker 1: the differences weren't small. They were enormous, and they didn't
- 33:06Speaker 1: follow any apparent logic. They were as when put it
- 33:10Speaker 1: without rhyme or reason. Surgery for removing hemorrhoids, for example,
- 33:15Speaker 1: was five times more common in some districts than in others.
- 33:20Speaker 1: Your chances of getting an enlarged prostate surgically removed, or
- 33:24Speaker 1: your uterus removed in a hysterectomy, or your appendix removed
- 33:28Speaker 1: after an attack of appendicitis were three times higher in
- 33:32Speaker 1: some districts than in others. Here's Wenberg years later, describing
- 33:37Speaker 1: his early work in an interview with the Community Health
- 33:40Speaker 1: Centers podcast Conversations on Healthcare.
- 33:43Speaker 4: We first from at across this in Vermont, where we
- 33:47Speaker 4: looked at a whole bunch of different attributes of healthcare system.
- 33:53Speaker 4: The one that sticks out in most people's mind as
- 33:56Speaker 4: the incredible variation that we saw in time feleectomy rates,
- 34:01Speaker 4: where literally by going five miles up the road and
- 34:05Speaker 4: entering a new hospital service area, had jumped from about
- 34:10Speaker 4: a twenty percent risk of having a tonsil out by
- 34:13Speaker 4: age fifteen to well over sixty percent, So that gives
- 34:17Speaker 4: you an idea of what the basic variability was. And
- 34:22Speaker 4: this variation sembly could not be explained on the basis
- 34:25Speaker 4: of differences in the incidents of sword throats or tonsilitis
- 34:30Speaker 4: or anything like that, and it was traced pretty much
- 34:32Speaker 4: directly back to the medical opinion of the physicians and
- 34:35Speaker 4: the different communities.
- 34:37Speaker 1: Weinburg saw this firsthand. He was living at the time
- 34:40Speaker 1: midway between the small Vermont towns of Stowe and Waterbury.
- 34:45Speaker 1: His kids went to school in Waterbury, a town where
- 34:48Speaker 1: tons electomies were rare, But had Weinberg's family been living
- 34:51Speaker 1: one hundred yards north, his kids would have gone to
- 34:54Speaker 1: school in Stowe, where everyone got their tonsils out. It
- 34:59Speaker 1: made no sense. Stowe and Waterbury were both idyllic small towns,
- 35:04Speaker 1: full of weathered nineteenth century buildings. Nobody seriously I thought
- 35:09Speaker 1: that one was more worldly or was in the grip
- 35:12Speaker 1: of a different medical ideology than the other. It wasn't
- 35:15Speaker 1: that Stowe attracted one kind of person and Waterbury attracted another,
- 35:20Speaker 1: very different kind of person. The people were the same,
- 35:24Speaker 1: except that is that the children of Waterbury tended to
- 35:28Speaker 1: keep their tonsils and the children of Stowe did not.
- 35:34Speaker 1: Wenburg was now deeply confused had he stumbled upon some
- 35:38Speaker 1: strange quirk of the small towns of Vermont. He decided
- 35:42Speaker 1: to expand his analysis to other parts of New England.
- 35:47Speaker 1: He compared Middlebury, Vermont versus Randolph, New Hampshire. These two
- 35:52Speaker 1: cities are essentially twins. But when he looked further at
- 35:56Speaker 1: the data, he found that in Randolph the doctors conducted
- 35:59Speaker 1: themselves in a kind of over caffeinated frenzy, spending freely
- 36:04Speaker 1: hospitalizing and operating on everyone inside. But Middlebury Middlebury was
- 36:09Speaker 1: a different world. Weinberg called what he had discovered small
- 36:13Speaker 1: area variation, and he found evidence of it across the
- 36:17Speaker 1: entire United States. And what started as an idiosyncratic observation
- 36:22Speaker 1: about the small towns of Vermont has turned into an
- 36:25Speaker 1: iron law that, half a century after Weinberg made his
- 36:28Speaker 1: startling discovery, shows no signs of going away. How your
- 36:32Speaker 1: doctor treats you, in many cases, has less to do
- 36:36Speaker 1: with where your doctor was trained or how well he
- 36:39Speaker 1: or she did in medical school, or what kind of
- 36:42Speaker 1: personality your doctor has, than with where your doctor lives.
- 36:47Speaker 1: Why does place matter so much? The easiest explanation for
- 36:52Speaker 1: small area variation is that doctors are simply doing what
- 36:55Speaker 1: patients want. So, for example, let's pick a relatively simple
- 37:00Speaker 1: medical event, how many times a doctor visits a patient
- 37:04Speaker 1: in the last two years of their life. The national
- 37:07Speaker 1: average in twenty nineteen is around fifty four visits. In Minneapolis,
- 37:12Speaker 1: by contrast, the average is much lower, thirty six. But
- 37:17Speaker 1: you know what it is in Los Angeles, it's one
- 37:20Speaker 1: hundred and five. You get three times more doctor visits
- 37:24Speaker 1: in your dying days in LA than you do in Minneapolis.
- 37:28Speaker 1: That's a huge difference. Is it because dying Minnesotans behave
- 37:33Speaker 1: like stoic Scandinavians whereas the very old of Los Angeles
- 37:37Speaker 1: are needy in demanding The answer seems to be no.
- 37:41Speaker 1: Weenberg and other researchers have found that small area of
- 37:45Speaker 1: variation does not result from what patients want their doctors
- 37:49Speaker 1: to do. It stems from what doctors want to do
- 37:53Speaker 1: to their patients. So why do doctors behave so differently
- 37:58Speaker 1: from place to place? Is this just about money? Maybe
- 38:03Speaker 1: more people in Los Angeles have the kind of insurance
- 38:05Speaker 1: that rewards doctors for treating their patients aggressively. The technical
- 38:10Speaker 1: term for this is payer mix. A city with one
- 38:13Speaker 1: hundred percent of its citizens covered by fee for service
- 38:16Speaker 1: insurance where a doctor gets paid for everything they do
- 38:20Speaker 1: is going to have a very different pattern of care
- 38:22Speaker 1: than a city where one hundred percent of its citizens
- 38:24Speaker 1: are enrolled in managed care, where payments to doctors and
- 38:28Speaker 1: hospitals are fixed. But does Los Angeles have a radically
- 38:32Speaker 1: different payer mix than any other big city? No, it doesn't. Okay,
- 38:38Speaker 1: what if this is just random? After all, doctors are people,
- 38:41Speaker 1: and people are all over the map in what they believe.
- 38:44Speaker 1: Maybe Los Angeles is a place where, by chance, many
- 38:47Speaker 1: aggressive doctors happen to practice, while Minneapolis is a place where,
- 38:51Speaker 1: by chance, there are very few.
- 38:54Speaker 2: No.
- 38:55Speaker 1: Random would mean that aggressive doctors would be scattered across
- 38:59Speaker 1: the country in patterns that ebb and flow with each
- 39:02Speaker 1: passing year. Random would mean that every hospital would have
- 39:05Speaker 1: a different combination of physicians, representing a sampling of ideas
- 39:09Speaker 1: about how to practice medicine. They would be a doctor
- 39:12Speaker 1: Smith who always took out tonsils, and a doctor Jones
- 39:15Speaker 1: who never did, and then a doctor McDonald who was
- 39:18Speaker 1: somewhere in between. But that's not what Wemburg identified years ago.
- 39:24Speaker 1: What he found instead were medical clusters where the doctors
- 39:29Speaker 1: in one hospital district took on a common identity, as
- 39:32Speaker 1: if they had all been infected by the same contagious idea.
- 39:37Speaker 1: Jonathan Skinner, an economist at Dartmouth University who's one of
- 39:41Speaker 1: the heirs to Weinburg's work, said, it's a birds of
- 39:44Speaker 1: a feather flock together puzzle.
- 39:47Speaker 5: Like, okay, doctors have different opinions, like people develop opinions
- 39:51Speaker 5: about what works. But the question is, what is it
- 39:55Speaker 5: about an area that causes some people to practice in
- 39:59Speaker 5: one way on average and something that's kind of in
- 40:02Speaker 5: the water.
- 40:16Speaker 1: Six small area variation has subsequently become something of an
- 40:23Speaker 1: obsession for medical researchers. Books are written about it, scholars
- 40:28Speaker 1: spend their days studying it. But what's fascinating is how
- 40:32Speaker 1: the same inexplicable patterns of variation turn up outside the
- 40:36Speaker 1: world of medical care. Let me give you an example.
- 40:41Speaker 1: The state of California keeps the public database of what
- 40:44Speaker 1: percentage of seventh graders at any middle school in the
- 40:47Speaker 1: state are up to date with their recommended vaccines chicken pox, measles,
- 40:52Speaker 1: mom's rebella, polio, and so on. If you give the
- 40:56Speaker 1: list and it's a long list. A cursory glance, it
- 41:00Speaker 1: seems pretty straightforward. The overwhelming number of public school kids
- 41:04Speaker 1: in California have received all their shots. So what about
- 41:08Speaker 1: private school kids. Private schools tend to be smaller and corkier.
- 41:13Speaker 1: Could there be more variation there? Let's take a look.
- 41:17Speaker 1: Here are vaccination rates chosen at random from a selection
- 41:20Speaker 1: of private elementary schools in Contra Costa County east of
- 41:24Speaker 1: San Francisco. Saint John the Baptist one hundred percent, El
- 41:29Speaker 1: Sebrante Christian School one hundred percent, Contracosta Jewish Day School
- 41:35Speaker 1: one hundred percent. The list goes on. There are a
- 41:39Speaker 1: lot of private elementary schools in Contracosta County, and the
- 41:42Speaker 1: parents who live there seem pretty intent on protecting their
- 41:45Speaker 1: children from infectious diseases. Saint Perpetua one hundred percent, Saint
- 41:51Speaker 1: Catherine of Siena one hundred percent. But wait, there's one
- 41:55Speaker 1: school that's very different, East Bay Waldorf forty two percent.
- 42:02Speaker 1: Forty two percent. Is this a fluke, a chance deviation
- 42:07Speaker 1: from a consistent pattern. Let's take a look at private
- 42:10Speaker 1: schools in El Dorado County, just down the list alphabetically
- 42:15Speaker 1: from Contra Costa g HS Academy ninety four percent, Holy
- 42:20Speaker 1: Trinity School one hundred percent, and then wait for it,
- 42:26Speaker 1: Cedar Springs Waldorf thirty six percent. Estra Los Angeles. Most
- 42:32Speaker 1: middle schools, like their counterparts around the state are up
- 42:36Speaker 1: in the nineties or at one hundred percent, but once again,
- 42:39Speaker 1: there is an exception far on the west side of
- 42:42Speaker 1: the city, in the exclusive neighborhood of Pacific Palisades West
- 42:47Speaker 1: Side Waldorf twenty two percent. If you've never heard of
- 42:54Speaker 1: Waldorf schools, they're a movement started by the Austrian educator
- 42:58Speaker 1: Rudolf Steiner in the early twentieth century. Waldorf schools are
- 43:02Speaker 1: small and expensive and focus on holistic learning, seeking to
- 43:07Speaker 1: develop the creativity and imagination of their students. There are
- 43:12Speaker 1: several thousand Waldorff schools around the world, mostly kindergartens and
- 43:16Speaker 1: elementary schools, and about two dozen in California, and almost
- 43:21Speaker 1: without exception, the lowest vaccination rates in any California town
- 43:26Speaker 1: that has a Waldorf school are at the Waldorf school.
- 43:30Speaker 1: There are other schools with unvaccinateed rates as highest Waldorf,
- 43:33Speaker 1: but they're rare. Here is Sonoma County Saint Vincent de
- 43:38Speaker 1: Paul Elementary School one hundred percent, Rincon Valley Christian one
- 43:42Speaker 1: hundred percent, Sonoma Country Day School ninety four percent, Saint
- 43:46Speaker 1: Eugene Cathedral School ninety seven percent, Saint Rose one hundred percent,
- 43:51Speaker 1: Summerfield Waldorff School twenty four percent. California had two measles
- 43:59Speaker 1: outbreaks in the mid twenty tens.
- 44:02Speaker 4: Right now there are nine confirmed cases of the measles
- 44:05Speaker 4: which are tied to Disneyland or Disney's California.
- 44:09Speaker 3: As health officials try and contain the virus, parents are
- 44:12Speaker 3: being urged to vaccinate their children.
- 44:16Speaker 1: The outbreaks led many to say that California was suffering
- 44:20Speaker 1: from a problem with vaccine skepticism. But that's wrong. Look
- 44:24Speaker 1: again at those elementary schools with one hundred percent vaccination rates.
- 44:28Speaker 1: It's actually small pockets of people within the state, such
- 44:33Speaker 1: as the parents who sent their kids to a very
- 44:34Speaker 1: specific brand of elementary school, who have a vaccine problem.
- 44:38Speaker 1: John Wenberg would recognize the pattern in an instant vaccine
- 44:43Speaker 1: skepticism is small area of variation. This is the first
- 44:49Speaker 1: lesson of social epidemics. When we look at a contagious event,
- 44:54Speaker 1: we assume that there is something fundamentally wild and unruly
- 44:58Speaker 1: about the path it takes. But there is nothing wild
- 45:02Speaker 1: and unruly about the La Bank robbery epidemic, or the
- 45:06Speaker 1: patterns of medical practice in Waterbury versus Stowe, or the
- 45:10Speaker 1: ideas of Waldorf parents. Whatever contagious belief unites the people
- 45:15Speaker 1: in those instances has the discipline to stop at the
- 45:19Speaker 1: voters of their community. There must be a set of
- 45:22Speaker 1: rules buried somewhere below the surface, which brings us to
- 45:29Speaker 1: puzzle number two. Thanks for listening to that preview of
- 45:37Speaker 1: my new book, Revenge of the Tipping Point. You can
- 45:39Speaker 1: hear the rest on audible, Apple Books, Barnes and Noble, Spotify, Pushkin,
- 45:44Speaker 1: dot FM, or wherever you like to listen. Coming up
- 45:49Speaker 1: next on Revisionist History, two narrative episodes about my favorite
- 45:52Speaker 1: trial of all time, and a deep dive on broken windows,
- 45:55Speaker 1: a theory that I helped popularize in The Tipping Point?
- 45:59Speaker 1: Did I get it right? And what's changed twenty five
- 46:02Speaker 1: years later?
- 46:03Speaker 3: And I would go around and I would talk to
- 46:04Speaker 3: people in New York City, and the.
- 46:06Speaker 5: Liberal people, progressive people say oh, well, you know, we've
- 46:10Speaker 5: had this miracle in New York.
- 46:11Speaker 3: And some people would say, oh yeah, Malcolm Gladwell's idea.
- 46:13Speaker 3: Broken Windows.
- 46:17Speaker 1: Revision's history is produced by Nina Bird, Lawrence, Lucy Sullivan,
- 46:21Speaker 1: and Ben ad F. Haffrey. Our editor is Karen Chakerji,
- 46:25Speaker 1: and our executive producer is Jacob Smith. Special thanks to
- 46:30Speaker 1: Sarah Nix. The Revenge of the Tipping Point audiobook was
- 46:33Speaker 1: executive produced by Kerry Colan, directed by Alexandra Garreton with
- 46:37Speaker 1: help from Louis Mitchell, Engineered by Nina Bird Lawrence, guitar
- 46:41Speaker 1: by Ged Corbin. It was produced by Alexandra Garreton and
- 46:45Speaker 1: Louis Mitchell. Nicole op den Bosch is Pushkin's VP of
- 46:49Speaker 1: Operations and Publishing. Special thanks to Jasmine Faustino and of
- 46:53Speaker 1: course el Hefe Greta. Come, I'm Malcolm Popple