Latest / Toadstool Sports / Tuesday BEST BETS | Yama No-Go? | MLB & WNBA | 9/22/26

Transcript

Tuesday BEST BETS | Yama No-Go? | MLB & WNBA | 9/22/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest. Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: your head. Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: made you this mad. But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor. Your name still means something
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: Look at me now Hold on, hold on Not tonight,
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: out That fella fights hard But it don't get the
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you at Toadstool Sports.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: I have no voice. Tuesday, September 22nd. Short board yesterday.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: We won with the NFL play. Easy win with the Rams.
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: Didn't even matter what number you laid. Yeah, Jackson Dart
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: got injured like right away. I mean, I'm not happy
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: about that. I love Dart, but you know, I mean,
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: I don't even think it mattered. I think the Rams
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: are going to run away with that game anyway. I mean, yeah,
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: it is what it is, man. Like I like Winston
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: as well. Like I think, I don't know. I like
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: his aura, but yeah, I mean, I think the Rams
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: are just going to win that game regardless of who
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: was on the field there. And of course the Rams
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: had their, Injuries on their side too. Nakua didn't play,
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: which I knew he was like questionable when I did
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: the show yesterday. And then it was announced that he
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: wasn't going to play. I was just like, eh, I
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: don't even care. Rams are the right side. I don't care.
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: All right. Let's do this, man. Baseball. I don't want
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: to do it. This baseball board is terrible. I only
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: have one play. I just don't feel like I'm seeing
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: any of this correctly at all. And my only play
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: might not even happen. So it actually, let me get
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: it into the system here. Hang on. I thought I
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: was going to potentially not even have any plays today. Well,
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: that is potentially what will happen. It depends on the
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: starting pitching in the game that I actually want.
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: It's in the system. We have a double header here.
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: There's an afternoon game because it's a double header between
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: Tampa and the Yankees. Pretty big series. Tampa needs to
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: maintain their lead against the Yankees here. So They definitely
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: need to avoid getting swept. And both these games look
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: like they're going to be kind of close pitching matchups here.
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: So we could have maybe some unders going on in
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: these games here. The Yankees are returning over from a
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: road trip, I'm pretty sure. Yeah, they're in Minnesota and
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: then Arizona. These teams were both off yesterday. Almost every
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: team was off yesterday. And there's no rest advantage for
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: anybody today because the three games that happened yesterday were
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: all beginnings of series. So Yankees, you know, typically it
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: is a negative spot returning back home from the road.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: So I don't love that spot, obviously. Tampa's not a
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: team they're going to overlook, although Tampa does have a
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: six-game lead over them right now. So pretty much, again,
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: I would say if Tampa avoids getting swept in the series,
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: they're in fairly good shape here. But, I mean, I
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: don't want to jinx it or anything because fuck the Yankees, obviously.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: This game here, bullpen-wise, the Yankees... are one of the
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: top bullpens. They're number four right now, arranged by WIP,
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: but I still think they're like a top two bullpen
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: with the Red Sox. Rays are ranked third. They're not
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: a bad bullpen, but they're not as good as the Yankees.
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: So I think the Yankees have a slight edge there,
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: but both bullpens, I think, are pretty trustworthy. The Rays
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: have had the better offense, number seven. Yankees, number 11,
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: arranged by OPS. Yankees tied with the White Sox and
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox right now, although I believe Aaron Judge
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: is injured again. Nick Martinez pitching for Tampa. The advanced
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: analytics guys can't get him right. They hate him, but
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: he doesn't put guys on base, man. He's had a
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: really good season, 2.94 ERA, 1.07 whip. He's been really
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: good on the road, 1.99 road ERA. He's faced the Yankees.
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: He faced them once, I guess, back here in New
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: York in May, and he pitched pretty well in that start.
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: Gave him one run in six innings. However, he did
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: only have one strikeout in that game, which is not great.
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: And then he didn't last five innings the other time
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: he faced the Yankees at home, but he still only
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: allowed one run in that one too, but put some
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: guys on base. Overall, he is good against the Yankees,
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: an 88 at-bats, 239 average of lead. 677 OPS, so
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: he does have decent numbers against them. He's been in
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: decent form over the last month or so as well,
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: allowing three or fewer earned runs in his last five starts.
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: All of that is good. He doesn't allow that many hits.
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: He really doesn't walk anybody, but the analytics guys hate
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: him because he doesn't strike anybody out either. But he
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: still has a 4.2 strikeout walk ratio because his walk
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: rate is so low. 5.3 Ks per nine, though. I mean,
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: I get it. That's not good. You're not fooling anybody.
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: but he still doesn't allow many runs, doesn't put guys
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: on base, so I don't really think he's going to
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: pitch that poorly. Carlos Rodon pitching for the Yankees here.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: He's been good. He's had a shortened season because of injuries,
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: or the Yankees are doing the Dodgers thing, you know
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: what I mean? With both guys that are pitching today,
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: Rodon and Freed, they both missed a huge chunk of
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: the season due to injuries, but it could be to
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: keep some of their pitchers more rested, but... going into
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: the playoffs, you know. 2.95 ERA for him, 1.13 whip,
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: really good. He's been better at home, too, slightly. 2.61
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: home ERA. He's been good over the last month or so.
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: They ramped up his pitch count again after he came back.
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: Since he's come back, he hasn't allowed more than 200
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: runs in any start, although some of them were short.
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: But he's going deeper into his recent starts. If he
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: has any issue, it's the walks are a little bit high.
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: His hit rate's really low, but, yeah, his walk rate
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: is kind of a problem. His strikeout rate is high, though. 2.2
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, though, that does indicate that his walk
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: rate is bad, which it is. 9.8 strikeout per nine
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: is good, though. He is also pretty good against Tampa,
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: 44 at-bats, 250 average allowed, 736 OPS, 16-5 strikeout walk ratio. So, yeah,
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: I think this game is an under. That would be
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: the way that I would look in this game probably.
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: The money doesn't agree, 52% of tickets on the under,
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: 80% of the cash on the over. But the odds
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: makers are telling you what to think, basically, by giving
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: you a total of seven, seven and a half here.
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: Mostly seven. I mean, if you get the seven and
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: a half at a reasonable price, obviously you could do that.
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: But I think you're going to be playing under seven
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: if you play this one. But I don't hate it. Again,
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: when you have both teams rested, that means the bullpens
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: are completely available coming into this one. They're decent bullpens
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: or good bullpens, really. And then also the starting pitching
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: seems like it should hold up in this one. And
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: the hitting can be a little bit cooled off by
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: the rest as well. So, yeah, I think under makes
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: sense in that one. The money's coming in on the
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: raise in that one as well. 57% of tickets on
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: the Yankees, 59% of the cash on Tampa. Yankees around
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: minus 120-something. I don't disagree because the Yankees are returning
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: home from a road trip, which does tend to be
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: a negative. Both teams will be motivated, but still, the
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: return home spot, yeah, is at least a slight negative
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: at the very least. And Martinez looks like he does
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: have slightly better matchup numbers here, even though I don't
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: really think he's the better pitcher, but he is better
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: with not walking guys at least. So maybe Tampa makes sense.
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: I think if you do that, you should do it
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: in the first five, though. like Tampa first five money
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: line because the Yankees will have a bullpen edge there.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: Game two of the doubleheader at night, we don't know
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: what the bullpens are going to look like in game two,
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: so that's kind of the issue. That game's going to
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: be on TBS. First game on ESPN Unlimited. This looks
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: like an even better pitching matchup. Drew Rasmussen is pitching
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: for the Rays, 2.72 ERA,. 93 whip. He's been awesome.
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: He's been even better on the road, 2.57 road ERA.
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: Last time he pitched against the Yankees, though, it did
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: not go well. It was at home, actually, and he
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: got kind of wrecked. He gave up six runs in
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: two and a third innings. However, he pitched against the
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: Yankees two other times this year, once at home, once
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: on the road, and he went 13 combined innings without
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: allowing any runs, and he had 13 strikeouts, only six
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: hits allowed, and one walk over those two starts. So
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: he dominated the Yankees in those two starts. And overall,
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: he does have really good numbers against them, even with
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: that last start being very bad against them. He's got
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: 80 at-bats against them, 27-5 strikeout walk ratio, really low,
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: 138 opponent batting average, of 426 OPS allowed so Rasmussen
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: typically does have the upper hand against the Yankees to
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: put it mildly he has not allowed many hits this
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: year he's hardly walked anybody and his strikeout rate is
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: also pretty high 5.6 strikeout walk ratio that's like pretty
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: much an elite number here 8.9 case per nine it's
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: not elite but it's fine And yeah, we've already looked
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: at his numbers against the Yankees. So yeah, Rasmussen, you
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: would expect that he would pitch well here, most likely.
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: Max Fried is on the other side of this thing,
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: as I already mentioned. He's been good. Again, a shortened
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: season to some extent because of injuries. But 2.63 ERA,.
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: 98 whip for him. He's actually a little bit worse
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: than home ERA was, 3.1 home ERA. But his opponent
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: batting average is still very low at home. It's below 200.
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: He was really good in his last start at Minnesota.
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: It looks like they were kind of ramping his pitch
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: count up again. Um, like he hasn't pitched that deep
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: into some of these recent outings. So I don't know.
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: They've been limiting him a little bit, maybe to just
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: keep him fresh for the playoffs. I'm not exactly sure,
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: but he's been good. Like he hasn't allowed more than
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: one run at any point in the last couple of months. So, um,
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: like since the beginning of August, at least he's got
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: a low hit rate. Doesn't really walk many guys either,
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: but yeah. And his strikeout rate is actually a little
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: bit better now than it was earlier in the season
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: to 3.2 strikeout walk ratio. That's fine. Um, 8.5 Ks
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: per nine is all right as well. Not a huge
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: strikeout guy, but that's not a terrible number. And he
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: is good against the Rays and 109 at bats, 165
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: average allowed, 487 OPS, 21 to four strikeout walk ratio.
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: So this game, yeah, this game also looks like an
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: under to me, but we just don't know what are
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: the bullpens going to look like after game one. And
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: then the other problem is the odds makers know this,
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: and this total is really low at six and a half.
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: So the odds makers are telling you, yeah, this is
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: going to be like a major pitching duel here. 88%
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 89% of the cash on the over, but
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: the over looks like it's just public here. You know,
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: I don't love playing the six and a halves because
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: I think it's, you know, I just don't like being
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: below that key number seven. But I have told you
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: that historically, if you play every single baseball total, the
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: six and a half under, you would actually win money
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: by doing it. So maybe I shouldn't be that way,
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: but it is the way that I am. I don't
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: like not having that key number. In this game, you
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: don't know what the bullpen usage is going to be
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: in game one either, so that makes this game a
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: little bit more difficult. What you could do is you
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: could play the first five under in this one, but
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: it's going to be a low number, dude. It's going
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: to be like three. So even though I do like
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: the under in this game quite a bit, but it's
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: just the number just doesn't seem quite right to me,
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: so I don't think I could do it, and we
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: don't know what the bullpens are going to look like.
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: Coming into this one. And the money is on the
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: Yankees in this one. For what that's worth. 72% of tickets.
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: 82% of the cash. Minus 130 price on the Yankees.
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: I don't have a great feel for the side in
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: this one. Like this game just screams under to me.
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: And that's pretty much what this game is. It's just
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: the number. I don't like it. So that's what it is. Steven,
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: what's up man? Thanks for hanging out. Yes, thanks. Thank
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: you for all the emojis. All right. Cincinnati and Atlanta.
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is returning home from a road trip, so I
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: immediately look at that, and I think that's a negative, obviously.
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: They did just sweep the Astros, which does Atlanta really
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: need to sweep the Astros? No, but that's going to
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: hurt the Astros. Atlanta's six games up above Philadelphia. Atlanta's
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: pretty much locked into– like the number three seed in
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: the NL, I would say. So I don't know how
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: much motivation Atlanta really has here. Are they going to
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: really get up in a return home spot for the Reds?
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: It looks like a negative spot for Atlanta where they
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: might be distracted, getting back to home, whatever, and not
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: fully focused on a team like the Reds here. Problem is,
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: I don't think you can really trust the Reds pitching
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: in this one either. If it was Chase Burns, maybe
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: I would, but they've been limiting Burns as well, and
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: it's Burns' counterpart pitching in this game, Williamson, the guy
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: who seems to come in after they shorten Burns' starts.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: They might shut him. Burns might be shut down, actually, now,
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: because it might be his turn of the rotation, but
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: it looks like it's not going to be him, but
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: they've been putting Williamson in after Burns' short starts recently,
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: but if it's not Burns, I don't think I can
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: come in and back Cincinnati here, man. They are starting
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: a road trip, though, off of some losses to the Cubs.
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: So situation does favor Cincinnati here. I will say that
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: from a situational standpoint, yeah, Cincinnati would be the lean
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: in this game. Wait, I'm skipping a bunch of games.
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: My apologies. I'm going to go back up in a minute,
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: but all right, whatever. I'm out of order here. I apologize.
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: I'm just all over the place today because I did
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: the doubleheader first. Let's just finish this off. We know
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: Atlanta has the better bullpen. They're number two right now,
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: which I think they're somewhere in the top few bullpens
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: for sure. Reds are not even close. The Reds are 25th.
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: They're bad. Braves are the better offense as well. They're
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: number 10. The Reds are wherever they are, number 25.
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: So we know all that. Atlanta has the better of
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: the matchup here in a lot of respects. Maybe not
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching, though. Brandon Williamson is pitching for the Reds.
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: He's not very good, though. 5.56 ERA, 1.53 whip. Those
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: are ugly numbers. But if you look at his career,
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: even though his career hasn't really been that good, he's
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: been better than this at the very least. So there's
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: some room for improvement. He is actually good on the road. 3.65
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: road ERA, and this will be a more pitcher-friendly park.
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: than Cincinnati's home stadium so maybe he'll do a little
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: bit better here I don't think he started in a
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: while because he's been coming in in relief of Chase
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: Burns we'll see last time he came in he only
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: pitched two innings he was okay against the Dodgers he's
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: got a an okay hit rate his walk rate's definitely
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: too high his strikeout rate is too low strikeout walk
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: ratio is abysmal 1.1 that is not trustworthy at all 6.4
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine isn't very good either Williamson against the Braves.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: Small sample here. 250 average allowed. 1,333 OPS is not good, though.
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: It's only eight at-bats. Five hitters have faced him, but
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: Harris and Olsen both have a home run off him.
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: Three strikeouts, one walk. I still don't really trust Williamson here,
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: and I don't think I trust Atlanta's spot or their
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: starter either with J.R. Ritchie pitching for them. He's a
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: young guy. I mean, there is definitely room for improvement
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: here like i don't think we've seen the best of
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: him yet but 5.03 era 1.47 whip not very good
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: he's a little bit better at home 4.44 home era
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: not pitching well recently he had a bad start at
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: wrigley last time out against the cubs he has not
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: pitched deep into his recent outings although he's been back
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: and forth between the major league roster and the minor
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: league roster i'm pretty sure and they just called him
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: back up and that was his one starts is calling
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: him back up again but it was bad against the
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: cubs his hit rate is all right here that's fine
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: but his walk rate's way too high his strikeout rate
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: is just okay 1.5 strikeout walk ratio is bad uh 8.3
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: case for nine is all right richie against who are
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: we talking about here cincinnati right um Yeah, they've never
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: seen him before, so you could argue he has an
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: unfamiliarity edge here because when these young pitchers are unfamiliar
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: to the opposing hitters, a lot of times it gives
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: them an upper hand, but I don't know about that
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: in this game, man. He's not that good of a pitcher,
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: so this game looks like an over to me more
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: than anything else. The money doesn't agree at all, though,
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: although the total's high. It's at 9, 9.5. If you
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: can find a 9, it looks like you can find
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: a 9, minus 120. Over at some places. Excuse me.
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: I think that's the way I would lean in this
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: game is towards the over. But 50-50 on the tickets.
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: 91% of the cash on the under. So the money
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: isn't really agreeing. But the odds makers put this game
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: at a high total for a reason. They don't think
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: this pitching is very good. And I wouldn't disagree with
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: like a first five on Cincinnati. 88% on tickets. 94%
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Atlanta. Atlanta's like a minus 180
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: something favor here. The money line has dropped a little bit.
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: Towards Cincinnati, like I said, the return home spot plus
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: Atlanta not having that much reason to focus here. I
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: think Cincinnati first five plus the half run or plus
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: one run even, whatever the run line is, probably makes
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: some sense. I just don't really think you can really
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: trust Williamson, and that's kind of the problem, even though
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: he is better on the road. But yeah, that would
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: just be entirely a situational play, but obviously you'd have
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: to cut the bullpens out because Atlanta clearly has a
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: bullpen advantage here, so... Cincinnati, first five. If you're going
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: to play the side, that would make sense. You'd be
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: fading the public, at least. But I still think the
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: over is the better approach on that game. Zach, what's up? Well,
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: your Kansas City Royals are not in it, though. No,
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, I hate this. I hate this baseball board today.
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: I really, really hate it. None of this is good.
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: All right, let me back up here because I skipped
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: all these games because of the stupid doubleheader. Toronto, Baltimore.
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: This one.
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: almost made the cut for me because i looked at
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: this pitching matchup and right away i was thinking yeah
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: this game looks like an over to me but there
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: are some things i don't quite love about that baltimore
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: won the game four to three yesterday i think i
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: was correct about the under in the game yesterday i
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: mean we do have two pretty bad offenses here in
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: this one baltimore used two relief pitchers toronto i know,
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: used a lot more than that. Toronto used five. So
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: Toronto's bullpen rest situation is not great here. Neither bullpen
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: is that bad, though. Baltimore's 11th. Toronto is 17th. But
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: they both have pretty good ERAs. Toronto's actually better. But
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: Toronto a little bit used up after yesterday. Toronto's the
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: 27th ranked offense tied with Seattle and Cleveland. That is
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: not good. Baltimore 22nd tied with the Phillies which sounds
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: not bad but it's not good either. So yeah I
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: worry a little bit about the over here because these
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: offenses aren't that good. The total's not really that high
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: but the pitching really doesn't look good in this one.
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: Max Scherzer is pitching for Toronto. They continue to roll
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: this guy out there man and Yeah, it hasn't been good. 6.07 ERA, 1.36
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: whip at least isn't that bad. It does at least
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: indicate that his ERA should, I guess, be lower than
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: it is. He's been slightly better on the road, 5.7
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: road ERA, although his opponent batting average is actually worse
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: on the road. He was okay in his last start
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: against Detroit, but he walked three guys in five innings there.
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: He just was able to get out of it only
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: allowing one run, but... You know, what he's doing right
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: now is not trustworthy. Like, he's not striking guys out.
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: He faced Baltimore two starts ago, and they got to
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: him for six runs and five innings. So that did
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: not go well for him. Over the course of the season,
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: his hit rate is okay. His walk rate's too high.
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is way down. So, I mean, he's
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: at the end of his career. We know this. He's
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: had an excellent career, but he just doesn't have it anymore. 1.7
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio is terrible. 6.7 strikeout per nine. Nowhere
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: close to what he once was, so this is kind
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: of sad at this point. And his numbers against the
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: Orioles are also bad. This current Orioles lineup has 58
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: at-bats against him, a 276 average, 854 OPS, 16-6 strikeout
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. That is all not good. Chris Bassett is
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: on the other side. Bassett, 4.64 ERA, but 1.55 whip,
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: really not good. Yeah, he's definitely bad. However, he is
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: known for being significantly better at home, and that is
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: where he is here, 3.53 home ERA. Some of this
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: was with Toronto. Remember, he was with Toronto early this
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: season and last season. Oh, no, sorry, this season he
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: was with Baltimore the whole season. Sorry, my mistake. He
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: was with Toronto last year. Now, he did face Toronto
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: twice this year. Most recently he gave up two runs
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: in five innings, but he was kind of walk heavy
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: in that start. Still was good enough to get the win.
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: And in his other start, which I think was his
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: first start against Toronto, he did better. He gave up
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: one run in six innings, although he didn't get the
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: win there because he got no run support. They actually
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: lost the game, but he pitched well in that one.
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: I think he got excited to pitch against his former team.
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: I think that's what it was. He got extra motivated.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: to pitch against them, but now that he's pitched against
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: them twice, maybe that motivation won't be there as much
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: to try to stick it to Toronto for letting him go.
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: His numbers on the season are not good, though. He's
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: been way too hittable. He doesn't really walk that many guys,
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: so the hit rate is really bad. The strikeout rate
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: is really low as well. 1.9 strikeout walk ratio, that
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: is not good. 6.7 strikeout per nine, that's not very
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: good either. Numbers against Toronto are also not good. 91 at-bats,
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: 275 average allowed, 784 OPS, 14-8 strikeout walk ratio. All
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: of that is bad. So my instinct on this game,
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: I'm still sticking to that, and I'm saying over is
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: the way to play this game if you're going to
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: play it. I have my concerns, though. Like I said,
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: Bassett is better at home. Might still be motivated to
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: pitch against Toronto here. The offenses are kind of a
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: concern here. The total is also not high. It's 7.5.
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: So the odds makers are kind of telling you they
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: don't really think it's going to be that high scoring.
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: The public is on the over, it looks like. 80%
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: of the tickets, 79% of the cash. Although, I don't know.
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: I mean, the public, when they're looking for something to
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: bet in, Maybe they will actually be focused somewhat on
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: this game because remember, this is a game that has
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: playoff implications potentially. I mean, these two teams are still
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: fighting for the last wild card spot. Baltimore, by the way,
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: won yesterday. After coming off the night game on Sunday,
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: they still won because at least they were staying at home.
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: They got the win yesterday. I think Alonzo had two
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: home runs in the game yesterday. So Baltimore, they're still
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: staying alive here. Both these teams fighting for the last
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: wild card spot, but they also have to fight with
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: whoever comes in second in the central between, uh, Cleveland
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: and the white socks and whoever comes in second in
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: the West between the Astros and the Rangers. So there's
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: a lot going on, um, with, you know, the only
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: way that Toronto and Baltimore could make the playoffs at
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: this point is to get a wild card. So, all right. Um,
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee and Philadelphia potential, a playoff preview of some sort here. Um,
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia returning home from a road trip, a three series
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: road trip where they went to the Braves. Then they
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: had a weird two game series in Washington, then a
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: four game series in New York against the Mets. So
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: the final leg of this journey is quick back from
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: Philly or back from New York to Philly, but still,
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: you know what? I always talk about it. The return
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: home spot is a negative in general because being back
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: home comes with its distractions. Now, Philadelphia, I mean, they're,
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: Pretty much locked into one of the top two wild
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: card spots, but we don't know which one of them
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: between them and the Cubs, which one of them is
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: going to be the host of that series yet. That's
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: to be determined. Those two teams are close. So Philly
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: has that to play for still. The Brewers, all they
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: really have to play for is they're fighting with the
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: Dodgers for the number one seed, I'm pretty sure. But
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: both teams might get up for this anyway because it's
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: kind of a big series. Potential playoff preview. I mean,
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: it's two playoff bound teams going up against each other here.
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: but still kind of a negative in the return home spot.
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: But the problem, if you want to fade Philly here,
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: the problem is Philly clearly has the better starting pitcher
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: on the mound here. As far as the bullpen, Milwaukee
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: is the better bullpen. Milwaukee's ranked eighth, but I think
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: they're definitely better than that. They're one of the top
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: few bullpens. Philadelphia is number 19. They're not as good.
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee is also the better offense. They're number four. Philadelphia,
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: as I already said, is tied with Baltimore in 22nd.
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's going with Dustin May in this game, though, and
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: he is not great. 4.61 ERA, 1.32 whip. He's been
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: pretty bad on the road. 5.76 road ERA, so I
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: don't think he's very backable here. He was not good
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: in his last start against Baltimore. It was a short start.
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: Didn't go well. His command numbers have been good recently, though.
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: He does have a 15-2 strikeout walk ratio this month,
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: and Really only one good start in here, though, at
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: home against Cincinnati. His road starts have both been bad.
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: I don't really trust him because he ended August pretty poorly, too.
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: So really over his recent starts, he's only had one
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: good one at home against Cincinnati, which is not that impressive.
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is not great here. It's a bit high.
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: His walk rate's okay. His strikeout rate is not too bad.
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: So at least his strikeout walk ratio is not that
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: bad at 2.9. And that includes when he was with St.
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: Louis earlier in the season, by the way. He's got
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: an 8.8K per nine. I mean, that's all right as well.
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: May against Philadelphia. We already know he's not good on
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: the road. But Philadelphia doesn't have much experience against him.
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: They only have three guys who have faced him. I
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: don't even know how that's possible. Of course, one of
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: them is Arias because he was in the NL West
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: on the Giants. And when May was on the Dodgers,
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: they probably faced off at some point. Philadelphia only has
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: three guys to face in those six at-bats. Arias has
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: the only hit, a single. One walk, no strikeouts here
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: from these guys. Arias, De La Cruz, and Turner. 167 average,
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: 452 OPS. I still don't trust May, though. It's a
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: small sample size. I don't put much weight into that.
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: I tend to think he's not going to pitch that
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: well here. Zach Wheeler is pitching for Philly. He had
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: a stretch recently where he wasn't pitching well, but he
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: has definitely bounced back from that, and he's had a
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: few good starts in a row again recently. He's good
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: in general, 2.99 ERA, 1.06 whip. So the worry that
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: he was kind of fatiguing because he's not young at
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: this point, I think that worry has been sort of
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: alleviated by the fact that he is pitching better again recently.
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: He's been good at home, 2.86 home ERA with a
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: below 200 batting average allowed at home. This month, he's
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: allowed one or zero runs in all three of his starts. Yeah,
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: he's been excellent. His hit rate's been low. His strikeout
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: rate's been high. He's hardly walking anybody. So, yeah, he's
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: back in form. His last four starts have all been good,
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: and he's allowed one or fewer earned runs in all
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: of those. He's got a low hit rate on the season,
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: doesn't walk a ton of guys, and he does have
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: a good strikeout rate as well. 3.8 strikeout walk ratio
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: is a little bit lower than what he usually posts.
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: It's still not bad, though. and 10.6 strikeout per nine
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: is solid. His numbers against Milwaukee are really good, and
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: 100 at-bats, 31 strikeouts, four walks, 190 average allowed, 481 OPS.
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: That's like dominant stuff right there. So Wheeler pretty clearly
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: has the upper hand in this pitching matchup. I don't
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: love the spot for Philly, but, you know, I don't know, man.
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: The money is fading Philly here, but I don't want
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: to do it. Philly's around minus 130-something here. 62% of
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: tickets on them, 55% of the cash on Milwaukee. So
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: the professional money seems to be coming in on the
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: situation here. with Philly being in a return home spot
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: Philly has the better starting pitching matchup here though man
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: so I think Philly first five makes some sense here
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: I don't want to do it because of the situation
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: but the matchup really seems like it favors Philly in
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: the first five year to me although may we just
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: don't know how good or bad he is against Philly.
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: And that's kind of the problem. Like you could lay
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: the half run with Philly in the first five, avoid
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: their bullpen due to the situation. I definitely still don't
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: want to do it. The total is really low. It's seven,
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: seven and a half. So an under seems to be
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: kind of expected here, very public over. Uh, so it
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: looks like the overs is getting a lot of public
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: action here. I wouldn't really disagree with the under. I mean,
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: you do have two teams that were off yesterday. Um,
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: In fact, all the teams that I've talked about, except
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: Toronto and Baltimore played yesterday, but all the other teams
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: I've talked about so far were off yesterday. So the
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: rest a lot of times can cool off the hitting,
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: and it means your bullpens are rested and more ready
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: to go. You know what I mean? So I think
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: it does help the case of the under a bit.
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: So I would not disagree with the under in that game.
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: Even though, yeah, I know Philly's bullpen's not that good,
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: but you might be able to do the full game
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: under because you do get the key number seven there.
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: All right, St. Louis, Pittsburgh. Man, a half hour in,
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: I haven't talked about enough games yet, and my neck kills.
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: I hate this, man. This is more work than you
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: think it is. My voice is just dead. You know,
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: my siduses are fucked. I don't know what else to
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: tell you. Pittsburgh is staying at home. They just swept
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: the Royals. Neither of these teams are going anywhere, but
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: maybe they'll show up because it's a divisional series.
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: St.
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: Louis is coming in from home. I was going to
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: say Washington. They played Washington at home, though. They're starting
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: a road trip. They did end a four-game losing streak
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: with their last game where they won, so St. Louis
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: has some momentum here, so I don't hate that for St.
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: Louis.
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: Usually you are focused to start a road trip, and
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: when you end a losing streak, that focuses you as well.
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh has the better bullpen here. They're ranked 11th. They're
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: not that bad. St. Louis is definitely worse at 23rd,
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: and their ERA is definitely worse. Pittsburgh is the better
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: offense as well. They're number six. St. Louis is nowhere
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: near that, number 26. So Pittsburgh does have those advantages.
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh probably does have the better starting pitcher on the
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: mound here too, but Andre Payante is at least not
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: that bad on the road. He's pitching for St. Louis.
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: He's been okay this year. 3.7 ERA, 1.26 whip. He
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: is good on the road. Like I said, 2.76 road ERA.
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: I don't know why that is because St. Louis' home
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: stadium is pitcher-friendly, but he's not as good there. He's
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: got a much lower opponent batting average on the road. 2.14.
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: Didn't pitch well last time against San Francisco, and that
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: was at home. I don't know what to tell you, man,
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: but his last couple road starts went all right. Although
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: his strikeout walk ratio wasn't good in those couple of
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: road starts. So I don't know how trustworthy he really is.
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: He's just not striking guys out at all recently. His
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: hit rate on the season's all right. His walk rate
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: isn't terrible. His strikeout rate is really low, though. He's
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: not a strikeout guy. Advanced analytics don't like it. 2.2
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, bad. A 6.2 strikeout per nine is
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: pretty bad. So I don't think I want to trust him, man,
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: even though he is good on the road. Pittsburgh is
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: known for hitting well at home, but Payante doesn't have
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: good numbers against them. In 84 at-bats, 190 average allowed,
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: 632 OPS, 19-4 strikeout walk ratio. So he does pitch
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: well specifically against them. Jared Jones is the more talented
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: of the two pitchers. He's going for Pittsburgh. He looks
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: worse because his ERA isn't as good at 4.17, but
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: his whip is solid at 1.19. He's not as good
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: at home, though, 4.68 home ERA. but with a lower
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: opponent batting average, so it's a little misleading maybe. He's
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: been good this month, though. He's got a 1.5 ERA
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: this month. He's allowed three runs total in 18 innings,
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: although all of them came in his last start here
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: at home against Milwaukee, where he wasn't as good, but
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: he still has a lot of strikeouts this month. 26-4
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, so his command is good right now.
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: He's in good form right now. He's not allowing a
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: lot of hits either. He's got a pretty low hit
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: rate on the season. His walk rate is okay. Strikeout
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: rate is also high, so those numbers are good. 3.5
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio is good. 10.8 case per nine is
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: also good. So yeah, I think Jones is good against,
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: who are we talking about here?
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: St.
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: Louis, right? Yeah, they're not a good offense. Jones, I mean,
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: he hasn't been as good as you would think against them.
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: 24 at bats, they've definitely hit him for contact. It's
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: a small sample though. 292 batting average allowed, but a
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: 679 OPS is low. They only have one extra base
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: hit against them, which is a double from Gorman. Six strikeouts,
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: two walks here. So overall, I still think Jones' numbers
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: are all right here. This game, I think it's a
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: first five under. I think that might be the way
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: that I would lean in this one. The total is
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: pretty low. It's 7.5 or 7. So the odds maker
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: is expected to be low scoring, but I really don't
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: trust St. Louis' bullpen. 85% of tickets, 92% of the
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: cash on the over. But I think it looks like
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: an under to me, man. First five under, I think,
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: is the way to play this. You probably have to
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: play it under three and a half, though. Do I
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: want to do it? No. I don't think I trust,
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: especially Payante, I don't think I trust enough. But the
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: money is kind of indicating on St. Louis here. 72%
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 71% of the cash on Pittsburgh. Even though
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: I think Pittsburgh has the matchup edge in every phase
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: of this game, they're around minus 150 or so here.
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: Some of it might be about the price. I think
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: maybe the professionals think that Pionte can kind of hang
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: with Jones here with the fact that he's good against
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh and he's good on the road. And maybe that's true.
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, I probably actually wouldn't disagree with St. Louis
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: at the first five here just to try to keep
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: it close on the plus half a run run line
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: or whatever. But I think the first five under makes
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: more sense. I think those are kind of correlated, though.
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: Washington at Detroit. I was wrong yesterday. Detroit won easily 9-2.
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: River Ryan didn't pitch that much in the game. And
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: Keeter Montero, I think, came in. And Detroit kind of
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: did sort of a bullpen-ish type of game. Whereas Washington,
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: hers was not good in the game yesterday. But these
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: teams basically both have nothing to play for really at
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: this point. Detroit, they're effectively eliminated if they're not mathematically
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: eliminated yet. They were in a weird spot in a
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: return home spot yesterday, which is why I didn't like
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: Detroit yesterday, but they won anyway easily. This pitching matchup, though,
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: this does not look good in this game. And you
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: know I don't trust Washington's bullpen at all. They're number 26.
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: Detroit is number 13, so Detroit has the better bullpen.
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: Washington is the better offense. Washington number three. Detroit is
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: number 14, so these offenses are pretty capable. As far
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: as bullpen usage yesterday, Washington only used two guys, but
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: I don't trust their bullpen at all. Detroit used two
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: as well, but they definitely have the better bullpen. But overall,
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: the pitching in this game does not look very good.
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: Jackson Kent is pitching for Washington. I believe he's a rookie,
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: but he has not been good so far. 6.4 ERA, 1.76
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: whip is really bad, and he's really bad on the road. 8.82
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: road ERA. I would not trust him. He was mediocre
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: in his last start against Philly, but he has not
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: pitched well otherwise. He's had one really good start against Miami.
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: That was at home. His last start against Philly was
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: also at home. His road starts have been abysmal. Every
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: single one of them has been bad. His hit rate
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: is too high. His walk rate is way too high.
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is okay. None of that is really good. 1.2
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio is really bad. 7.5 Ks per 9.
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: That's not good either. Detroit has never seen him, so
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: he does have unfamiliarity here, but I don't think that's
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: nearly enough with a guy like this who's not pitching well.
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: I don't expect him to be able to come out
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: and fool hitters, even though they haven't seen him before, because,
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: I mean, he hasn't been able to do that all year, really.
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: These offenses haven't seen him before, and they're still crushing him.
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: So I don't think he's going to pitch well. Drew
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: Anderson for Detroit has actually been okay. He's kind of
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: a converted reliever. I still don't think he's very trustworthy, though. 3.62 ERA, 1.29
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: whip is... Not great. 3.1 ERA at home is pretty good, though,
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: so he is good at home. They've extended him, so
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: now he is kind of a starter at this point.
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: He's going around five innings every time he takes the
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: mound now, but 13-8 strikeout walk ratio this month, that's
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: not good. He's not allowing many runs, I'll give him that.
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: He hasn't allowed more than 300 runs in any of
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: his starts that he's made, I don't think, because he
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: was a reliever before that. I still don't trust what
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: he's doing. His walk rate's still too high. His strikeout
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: rate's nothing impressive. His hit rate is all right on
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: the season. That's not bad, but his walk rate's high.
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: Although his strikeout rate on the season is actually high,
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: but it's not as good as a starter. When he
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: goes out as a relief pitcher and he only pitches
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: an inning or two, his strikeout stuff is there, but
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: when they extend him to a five-inning game, he doesn't
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: strike out as many guys per inning. He's got a 2.5
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. This year, which is higher than what
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: he posted most of his career. He hasn't had much
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: of a career. This is by far the most he's
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: ever pitched. It's hard to tell what his career really is.
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: He's 32 years old at this one. He's never really
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: stuck in the major leagues. and yet before this year
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: he had a pitch in the major since 2021 so
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: that's kind of crazy does have a 9.6 straight up
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: or nine this year still though which is good but
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: again that number goes down as a starter Washington's never
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: faced him before so he has unfamiliarity here but I
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: still don't trust him enough. This game, I'm leaning over
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: in this game. I think that might be the better
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: way to look at this. Detroit probably does have most
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: of the edges in this game. I think I would
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: trust Anderson more than Kent here. The money does not
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: agree with Detroit. The money doesn't really seem to necessarily
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: agree with the over either. 87% of tickets, 89% of
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: the cash on the over. It is a very public over,
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: but totals in the middle of nowhere at 8, 8.5%.
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: I still think that is the approach in this game, though,
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: is to look towards the over. I just think this
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: pitching could definitely get you there. 75% of tickets and
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: 65% of the cash on Detroit. Detroit's in the 150-something
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: range here on the money line, minus 150. I mean,
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: maybe the professional money is just saying that Detroit shouldn't
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: be favored by this much with Anderson on the mound.
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: But even so, Kent has been very, very bad. And
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: we know Washington's bullpen is bad, so I don't have
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: a great reason to want to back Washington here at all,
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: other than if they're going to bounce back from yesterday.
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: The only advantage Washington has is they have the better offense,
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: but I prefer pitching over offense. I would be leaning
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: Detroit on a minus one run line slightly in that game,
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: but I think the over is the way better way
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: to play that game. Cleveland and Boston, this starting pitching
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: matchup immediately looks like this game is going to be
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: really low scoring. Looks like an under, and this is
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: another really, we have a lot of really low totals today.
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: We have three different totals at six and a half,
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: including the one I already talked about with Tampa and
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: the Yankees game two. Red Sox are in a bad
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: spot here situationally. So I was thinking maybe you could
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: fade the Red Sox. When I looked at the matchup numbers,
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: I didn't really like the idea. So I'm not going
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: to be doing that. But the Red Sox are returning
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: home from a road trip. They went to Texas. And Tampa,
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: they didn't have a good road trip. They only went
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: two and four on the road trip, but they still
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: clinched a playoff spot. So the Red Sox are in
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: the playoffs. They're highly likely to be the number two
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: wild card and have to go to New York, which
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: I'm not happy about, but that is the way that
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: it is. Return home spot after clinching and partying. So
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox partied even though they lost. They partied
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: after clinching a playoff spot. So I don't like the spot.
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: It could be a letdown spot for them. Plus the
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: return home spot is a distraction. Plus Cleveland needs this
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: game more. Cleveland still needs to make the playoffs. You
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? The Red Sox are already in.
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: So Cleveland has more motivation here. So the situational setup
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: definitely favors Cleveland in this game. And I was considering
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: maybe making a play on Cleveland here. They do have
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: a good starter on the mound. The problem is he's
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: not good against the Red Sox, and the Red Sox
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: are countering with, debatably, their best starter here. So I
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: don't really want to do it. It's a battle of two.
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: Young pitchers here, the Red Sox do have the better bullpen.
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: They're number one, although Cleveland is not bad. They're number nine,
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: and they've been good recently. So these are two pretty
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: good bullpens here. Red Sox have the better offense. They're
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: number 11 right now, tied with the Yankees and the
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: White Sox. Cleveland is number 27, tied with the Mariners
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: and the Blue Jays, so that's not good. Parker Messick
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: is pitching for Cleveland, as I was alluding to. He's
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: been really good. 2.57 ERA, 1.04 whip. I believe he
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: is rookie of the year. He's leading the rookie of
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: the year odds, I think. I'm not 100% sure of
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: that because he did pitch last year, but I think
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: it wasn't enough to qualify. He's been really good on
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: the road. 2.21 road ERA. He's in good form recently,
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: so he's not wearing down yet. He's got 25 strikeouts,
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: four walks this month. That's all really good. He's allowed
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: three or fewer earned runs in Every start going all
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: the way back into June. So he's pitching really well.
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: The one issue is he's throwing a lot of innings here.
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: He's up in the high 170s here in innings pitch.
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: So with these young guys, a lot of times you
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: do have to worry about the innings pitch count here.
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: But he doesn't seem to be wearing down. Like he
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: looks pretty good in his recent starts still. He's got
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: a low hit rate on the season. Doesn't walk many
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: guys either. Does strike out a lot of guys too.
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: All those numbers are good. 4 strikeout walk ratio is good. 9.4
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: strikeout per 9 is good. The issue I have, though,
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: is that he's actually not good against the Red Sox.
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: They have 30 at-bats against him, a. 367 average, 975 OPS, 5.4
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. So believe it or not, Messick, even
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: though he is good and he may very well pitch
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: well here, I don't like backing guys that have matchup
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: numbers that are this ugly. So that has me worried.
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: And Peyton Tolley is going for the Red Sox. He's
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: been awesome, but he was, of course, involved in that
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: celebration the other day. There were some videos of him
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: that were hilarious, as usual. I love this guy, dude.
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: Love him. 3.02 ERA, 1.07 whip. Problem is, after all
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: that celebration, maybe he won't come out and have his
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: best start here. You know what I mean? He's been
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: a little bit worse at home. 3.55 home ERA. He
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: should be in the running for rookie of the year
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: as well, man, because he barely pitched last year. He's
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: had a really, really good season, but... I don't know.
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: He seems to not really be in the running for it.
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: He's been excellent this month. He's only allowed one run
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: in his last 12 innings of work. 19 strikeouts, one
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: walk this month. Yeah, that's good. After he hit kind
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: of a lull last month, but he's still pitching really,
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: really well here. Hasn't really hit that many innings pitched yet.
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate, low walk rate as well,
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: high strikeout rate. All that stuff is good. 4.4 strikeout
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, 10.4 strikeout per nine. Yeah, he's good. I
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: would say he's like borderline elite, to be honest. Against Cleveland,
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: they've never faced him before, so I think that actually
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: gives him an advantage in the starting pitching matchup because
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: this weak offense, having not faced a good pitcher like
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: him before, that might have Cleveland's offense struggling a bit here.
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: So while the situation does say Cleveland here, I don't
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: think I want to do it. I think the Red
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: Sox actually have the pitching edge throughout this game, so
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: I don't want to do it. Red Sox are very public, though.
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: 86% of tickets, 87% of the cash on them. They're
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: about minus 130 on the money line here. The under
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: is certainly a consideration here. I mean, you have two
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: good starting pitchers here. You have two good bullpens here.
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: You have rest, which can affect the hitting a bit
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: and take away from the hitting. It means the bullpens
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: are ready to go. The Red Sox did get Tyron
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: Guerrero back in the bullpen because he pitched in their
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: last game, so he is back, which will help. Because
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: he is one of their better relievers, really. He's a flamethrower.
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: Throws like over 100 miles an hour out there. The
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: money is agreeing with the under, if that's what you
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: want to do with this. 83% of tickets and 57%
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the over. But, you know me.
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: I would only do it if I could find a 7.
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: And I don't know if you're going to find it.
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: This total is 6.5. It is juiced to the over, though. Although,
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: like I said, if you blindly bet the 6.5 is under...
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: You do come out ahead if you do that in baseball.
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: It's not my thing. I don't really do it, but
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: perhaps the under is the best way to play this game,
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: and I think maybe it is, actually. So I would
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: not disagree with the under in this one. And I
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: do still slightly lean to Cleveland, by the way, just
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: because the situation seems pretty strong. But the money is
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: slightly disagreeing with that, and the matchup doesn't look like
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: it supports it really. So I think if you play Cleveland,
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: you should do it in the first five maybe, though,
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: because the Red Sox bullpen should have a bit of
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: an edge there. All right. I already gave you the
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: Tampa Yankees doubleheader. I was messed up, and I already
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: did Cincinnati Atlanta as well. So we're out of order
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: here today. I'm out of order in the court here.
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: White Sox at Kansas City for Zach here. Kansas City
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: is returning home from a road trip, a long one,
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: where they went to Boston, Houston, Pittsburgh, and they lost
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: all three of those series. So things not going well
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: for Kansas City, obviously. Will they bounce back and return
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: home spot? Probably not. I mean, they're a bad team
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: with nothing to play for. Well, the thing is, maybe
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: they will get up against the White Sox, you know
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: what I mean? Because they have a chance to spoil
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: the season for the White Sox. right? So it is
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: still a divisional matchup where at least the Royals can
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: knock the White Sox down and possibly knock the White
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: Sox out of the playoffs. However, I'm almost positive that
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: whoever does not win this division is going to get
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: that last wildcard spot. Cleveland and the White Sox are
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: both far enough ahead of Houston slash Texas and Toronto
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: slash Baltimore that I think Whoever comes in second in
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: this division is probably going to be the last wild card.
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: But we will see. But Kansas City could do some
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: damage to the White Sox here. However, I don't like
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: teams in a return home spot, especially bad teams with
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: nothing to play for. So I do not like Kansas
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: City in this spot. Even though Kansas City is actually
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: above 500 at home, believe it or not. So Kansas
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: City does have positive home road splits playing at home here.
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: The White Sox, they're coming off playing Detroit. They had
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: a good series against Detroit where they pretty much put
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: the nail in Detroit's coffin. Big divisional series there. They're
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: starting a road trip with momentum, though, and they need
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: to win. So it's not necessarily a bad spot for
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: the White Sox here. But, you know, the odds makers
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: know the White Sox need to win. Everybody needs to know.
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, everybody knows, excuse me, that the White Sox
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: need to win. So that's going to make the White
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: Sox overpriced in the market. You know what I mean?
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: especially when they're playing the Royals. So I don't think
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: playing the White Sox in this game is really that
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: viable either. As far as the bullpen. are concerned, White
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: Sox are the better one. Number 16, Kansas City's ranked last. However,
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: I still think they're not as bad as the A's,
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: but they're bad. The A's, or excuse me, the Royals,
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: not that good offensively either. They're 20th tied with the Giants,
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: so I keep saying they're not a good offense. The
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: White Sox are the better offense here. They're 11th, as
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: I already mentioned, tied with the Yankees and the Red Sox,
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: which is not a horrible place to be offensively, or
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: really in any phase of the game, really. Even though
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox have not been great at hitting, except
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: for that great stretch that they had in July and August,
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: but whatever. The White Sox have Anthony Kaye pitching here.
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: He is not their best pitcher. 4.41 ERA, 1.36 whip.
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: That's not that great, and he is... Not good on
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: the road, 5.04 road ERA. So that's a bit of
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: an issue. He also hasn't made a five innings in
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: a start in his last five starts, and his team
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: has lost all but one of those. So that's not good.
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: They've lost the last four of them. So the White
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: Sox are losing whenever he takes the mound. He's not
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: going deep into his outings. None of that is a
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: good sign. He's not striking out a lot of guys.
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: That's not a good sign either. His hit rate is
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: one per inning, which isn't great. His walk rate's too high,
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: his strikeout rate's low, so none of that is good.
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: Advanced analytics won't like it. 2.3 strikeout walk ratio is
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: not great. 7.3 Ks per 9 is whatever. I mean,
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: it's not great. K against the Royals is actually good, though,
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: against them. And 47 at-bats, 10 strikeouts, 3 walks, 213 average,
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: 594 OPS allowed. So K may do well here just
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: because of the specific matchup that he's facing here. Daniel
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: Lynch IV is pitching for Kansas City. He's been good.
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: A lot of this is as a relief pitcher this year, though,
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: but he's been a starter for a bit now. 3.29 ERA, 1.07 WIP.
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: Those are good numbers. 3.22 home ERA, so he's slightly
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: better at home. He's been in the starting rotation for
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: a little while now. He had a bad start against
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: Toronto in there, but his last couple of starts have
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: been all right. And he's picked up wins in both
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: of them against Arizona and Houston. And those are not
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: totally weak offenses. That's not that bad. But he doesn't
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: strike anybody out. So the advanced analytics guys are going
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: to come in again and say this guy sucks because
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: he gets no strikeouts. But he doesn't put guys on base, though.
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: His hit rate's low. His walk rate's pretty low. And yeah,
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: his strikeout rate is also low. But he's a ground
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: ball pitcher. I mean, sometimes that masks your deficiencies, but
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: That's the way that it is. He doesn't put a
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: lot of guys on base. He's got a 2.3 strikeout
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, which, again, is not great. 6.1 case per
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: nine is also not great, but you can't really argue
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: that much with his whip still being quite low here, so...
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: That's the way that it is. He doesn't put that
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: many guys on. His numbers against the White Sox are
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: fairly good in 43 at-bats. 256 average is mediocre, kind of,
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: but 607 OPS isn't bad. They only have two extra
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: base hits against him. Rodgers and Vargas each have a
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: double off him. 7-3 strikeout walk ratio, which isn't great,
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: but again, he doesn't strike guys out, really, so... I mean,
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: it might sound kind of insane, but this game might
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: be a first five under. The money is not agreeing
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: with that. 75% of tickets, 91% of the cash on
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: the over, but the total is low. So the oddsmakers
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: seem to actually think this will be a lower scoring game.
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: They put the total at 7.5 or 8 here. It
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: actually opened basically 8, and it's gone down a little
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: bit actually to 7.5 at some places. So oddsmakers do
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: kind of think this is not going to be that
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: high scoring game. I kind of agree. I hate the
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: Royals bullpen, so I can't deal with them. But I
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: think a first five under may be worth a look
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: in this one. And for whatever reason, the money's back
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: in Kansas City. I would not do that in a
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: return home spot. But the price looks way too cheap
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: on the White Sox. Everybody knows the White Sox have
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: something to play for and they need to win. But
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: the numbers at minus 120 basically here, it looks so
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: easy to play the White Sox here. And that would really,
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: really worry me that it looks way too easy to
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: play them. And they are public. 67% of tickets on them.
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: 75% of the cash on the Royals. The money's back
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: in the Royals. I think your argument, Ford, if you
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: do that, is that Lynch might actually be the better
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: pitcher over Kay. He does have the better numbers. And
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: the matchup numbers seem to slightly support that as well,
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: I think. So... if you wanted to do it, you
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: could take Kansas city in the first five, but they're
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: in a return home spot. So I would not really
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: recommend that either. I think still my recommendation would be
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: to play the first five under in this game and
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: hope that that goes well enough. You'll probably get a
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: four and a half on it, or maybe a four,
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: probably four and a half really. So I think that's
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: the way I would do it. Um, Yeah, I think
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: that's all I got on that game in that battle
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: of lefties. The other thing that helps the under is
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: that both teams were off yesterday, as most teams were,
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: so that can cool off the offense a little bit.
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: But it also helps the bullpens. We're not factoring the
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: bullpens in that game because the Royals' bullpen is terrible.
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: They're royal shit, in fact. Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: for hanging out. I got to take a break soon, man,
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: as I usually do. No voice here. Miami at the
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: Cubs is next. The Cubs have switched their pitcher. It's
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: not going to be Gaussman. Imanaga is listed on the
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: actual betting board, so I think it is going to
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: be him, which changes my opinion on this because if
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: Gaussman was pitching, Gaussman is not that good against Miami,
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: so that has me not loving Chicago that much. But
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: because it's Imanaga on the mound here, it looks like
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: I think this game might wind up being an under,
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: and it is a low, low total in this one.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: So it's... lower than it should be with like junk
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: on the mound for Miami here so what I'm going
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: to tell you is you know what that means it's
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: a Wrigley game so that means the wind is blowing
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: in even though Imanaga might warrant a number like that
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: junk definitely does not so the fact that the total
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: is so low I told you there were a lot
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: of six and a half more six and a halves
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: on the board than I've ever seen before the wind
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: is blowing in at Wrigley that's what's going on here
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: so it should be a Wind-blowing-in type of game here
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: with balls getting knocked down in the outfield here. Cubs
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: are returning home from a quick road trip to Cincinnati.
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: I don't think that's that big of a deal. Longer
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: road trip returns tend to be worse when you return home.
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: This one maybe not as bad. But the question is,
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: what do the Cubs have to play for here? Well,
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: they're playing to try to get home advantage against Philly
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: in this inevitable wild-card matchup they're going to have against
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: the Phillies here most likely. Is that enough motivation here, though?
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: against an eliminated Marlins team. I don't know, man. I mean,
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: the Marlins, this might be a game they do get
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: up for because they get to play against a playoff team.
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: So maybe the Marlins will, you know, have something to
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: kind of play for here just because they get to
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: play against a good team here. I don't know why
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: I'm looking at the bullpens. Neither of these teams played yesterday.
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: Miami is number 12 in bullpen. The Cubs are number 15,
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: but the Cubs have the better ERA. I think the
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: Cubs are the better bullpen here. although it's kind of close.
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: Neither bullpen is that horrible. Cubs are still the number
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: one offense. They've been very good on offense, especially recently,
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: and Miami's number eight, which I don't think Miami's quite
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: that good, so I do think the Cubs have the
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: better offense. The Cubs do have the better pitcher on
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: the mound in general with Jansen Junk pitching for Miami.
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: He is not great. He's not awful, but he's not
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: great either. He's not total junk, let's say, but 4.5-year.
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: He is kind of a junk pitcher, though, I'm pretty sure. Like,
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: he throws, you know, off-speed stuff, I think, for the
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: most part. 4.5 ERA, 1.34 whip. Maybe I'm wrong about that, though.
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: Those numbers are really mediocre. He's not very good on
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: the road. 4.66 road ERA, the really bad 303 opponent
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: batting average on the road. That's bad. Didn't go deep
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: into his last outing on the road at Arizona, even
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: though he actually pitched reasonably well in that start, but
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: they limited his pitches, so they've been limiting him. recently.
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: So that's the other issue with Miami here. Yeah. Their
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: bullpen is going to come into this game and their
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: bullpen is not bad. So that's not terrible for Miami,
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: but yeah, junk is probably not going to last that
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: long here. Although three of his last four starts, he's
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: allowed one run in each of them, but the one
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: that he didn't do well in, which was at home,
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: he got blown up by the Mets. I don't know
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: how that happened. The Mets, not a great offense and
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: junk tends to be better at home in that picture
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: friendly park, but that did not go well for him. Um, Yeah,
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: he's just been too hittable this month. And overall, he's
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: been too hittable on the season. He doesn't really walk
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: many guys, but he doesn't strike out many guys either,
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: and he is way too hittable. His strikeout walk ratio
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: is not very good at 2.5. Strikeout per nine, 6.2.
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: None of that is very good. Junk against the Cobbs.
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: For whatever reason, he's been really good against the Cubs, though.
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: Their whole lineup has faced him. Basically, their entire active
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: roster has faced him. 29 at-bats, one extra base hit,
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: a double from Arias, seven strikeouts, two walks, 138 average,
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: 366 OPS. So he's good against the Cubs for whatever reason.
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: and I don't know if Bregman's going to play or not,
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: because I don't know if you saw what happened to
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: him in the Cubs last game, he was on the
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: on-deck circle, or in the on-deck circle, and whoever was
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: up at bat fouled a ball off, and it went
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: right into Bregman's face, and it hit his left eye,
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: and his left eye was all fucked up, so I
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: wouldn't be shocked if Bregman was out in this game
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: so he might not be in there but the Cubs
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: still have a really good lineup anyway without him so
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's going to change much as far
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: as this game is concerned now it looks like like
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: I said I think Imanaga is the listed starter right
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: now for the Cubs let me make sure that yeah
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: it looks like that's the case Gaussman does not have
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: good numbers against Miami, but it looks like it's not
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: going to be him right now. Gaussman might pitch later
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: in the series, though. But it looks like Imanaga got
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: moved up, so he's going to pitch here. He's been good, 3.8 ERA, 1.1 whip.
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: He's not as good at home for whatever reason, 4
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: ERA at home, but I think that's misleading because the
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: rest of his home numbers are all pretty good. So
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: I think he's been a little bit unlucky with the
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: amount of home runs he's allowed at home. He allows
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: too many home runs, but you know, in a wind
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: blowing in game, it's going to be good, man, to
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: knock those balls down because he allows way too many
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: home runs. Actually, he has one of the highest home
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: run rates in baseball, which is not good, but his
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: hit rates low, his walk rates low. His strikeout rate
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: is reasonably high. So all of that is good. 4.4
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio is good. 8.8 Ks per nine, that's
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: all good. He's in good form recently. He's allowed two
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: or fewer runs at all three of his starts. This month,
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: his team has won seven of his last eight outings,
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: so that's good, even though he did not have a
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: good month of August, really, because he was way too
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: hitable and he had a lot of shitload of home
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: runs that month. But this month, over his last three starts,
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: he's only allowed one home run. So there you go.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: It was at home, for whatever that's worth. Imanaga against
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: the Marlins I believe he does have good numbers here
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: yeah 26 at bats not a huge sample they only
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: have one extra base hit which is a double from
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: De Los Santos five strikeouts zero walks here 115 average
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: allowed 269 OPS so small sample but Imanaga has definitely
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: dominated them so this game does look like an under
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: I mean you have two capable bullpens here but the
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: odds makers know what's going on here and the wind
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: blowing in The total is six and a half. Like
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: I said, I'll say it one more time. If you
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: play these six and a halves under, Which, by the way,
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: there might actually kind of be four of them if
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: you think this first Tampa Yankee game is sort of
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: on the cusp of six and a half, although that
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: game really is mostly at seven. So we have three
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: true six and a halves here today with the totals,
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: but like I said, which is Yankees, Tampa Bay game two,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: Red Sox and Cleveland, and this game here, Miami and
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: the Cubs. And this is because the wind's blowing in
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: in Wrigley, like I said. But as I also said,
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: and I'll say it one more time, Long term, if
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: you bet the under six and a half in baseball,
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: when the line is actually at six and a half
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: for the total, you win money long term by doing that.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: Even though I don't like it because you're off of
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: that key number, but... I think that would be my
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: lean if I was going to play this game. 76%
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 92% of the cash on the over, so
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: the money backing the over here somewhat. I don't agree
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: with that. I think this game is under or pass,
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: in my opinion. Cubs are very public. 95% of tickets
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: and cash on them. I just don't really see an
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: angle to play Miami other than Cubs technically returning home
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: from a quick road trip and May not be fully
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: motivated here. But the Cubs have the better starter. They
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: have the better bullpen. They have the better offense. But again,
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: you do have to lay a price for all that.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: Minus 210 basically is the price here. So the odds
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: makers know this. That also tells me Managa is likely
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: pitching here because I don't think Gaussman would be that
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: heavy of a favorite. So that's what you got going
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: on in that game. But I like the under mostly
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: in that one. Yankees and Texas. This one almost made
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: the cut for me. I just have... an issue with
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: this game slightly. Texas is staying at home. Neither of
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: these teams played yesterday. Texas lost their last home game
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: to the Blue Jays, and it was not a good loss.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: But we know. We know what the deal is here.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: Texas is the more motivated team. The Mets... You know,
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: they're done for the season, although they are playing with effort,
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: so give them credit for that. But how much effort
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: are the Mets going to have going to Texas, a
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: team they're probably not going to give a shit about?
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Texas needs to keep winning. And they've
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: been playing well recently. Like, they've won whatever this is,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: seven of their last nine or six of their last eight,
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: I guess is what that is. They're playing well, and
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: they're atop the AL West right now, but they've got
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: to keep winning. So Texas is going to be the
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: more motivated team here. And I think they have the
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: starting pitching edge here as well. Both teams were off yesterday.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: The Mets do have the better bullpen, though. So the Mets,
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: they're number seven in bullpen. Texas has not been good
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: this year, number 20. So the Mets do have the
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: bullpen edge here. Texas has the better offense, too. Texas
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: number 17. The Mets are just not very good there.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: They're number 24. But I think Texas has the motivational
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: edge and the starting pitching edge in this one against
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: Sean Mania, who's pitching for the Mets here. He's mediocre.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: He's mediocre. 4.74 ERA, 1.32 whip. He's basically the same
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: home and away. His home road splits are extremely insignificant.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: His numbers are almost exactly the same home and away.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: And he is pitching okay command-wise recently. 12 strikeouts, one
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: walk this month. But he's allowed a bunch of runs,
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: and he's been way too hittable this month. So, Minaya.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: I think he's changed something because normally throughout his career,
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: he's been pretty wild. But this year, his hit rate
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: has been too high and his walk rate's gone down
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: and his strikeout rate is all right. So he seems
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: to have changed the way that he pitches a little bit.
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: He's got a 3.2 strikeout walk ratio, which is not horrible. 8.6
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: case per nine is not that bad either, but he's
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: given up too many hits this year. That's been his issue.
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: And he's not good against Texas, which is kind of
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: what I was alluding to with the starting pitching matchup here.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: 48 at-bats, 271 average allowed, 883 OPS, 9-2 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: That's a fine ratio, but the rest of these numbers,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: not good. Also, that's not really a high strikeout rate,
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: but it is a really low walk rate. But his
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: numbers are generally not good against Texas here. Mackenzie Gore
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: is pitching for Texas. I do think he's the better
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: pitcher here. even though you might not think so because
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: his ERA is 4.67, his whip is 1.35. And I
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: do have some issues with him, even though he is
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: good at home in this picture friendly park here, 3.53
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: home ERA. Um, they won his last start here at
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: home against the Red Sox. Problem is they won his
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: last two or his last three actually at home. Um,
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: actually his last, no, they've won a lot of his
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: home games recently. What am I talking about? Um, Seven, actually.
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: His last seven home starts have been wins for Texas.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: So that's a good trend to back Texas here. The
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: problem is, I don't think I could do it because
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: his strikeout walk ratio this month is 7-13. How can
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: you back this guy right now? Like, he hasn't made
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: it five innings in his last three starts. Over those starts,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: he's had nine walks and three strikeouts. I mean, this
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: is pitiful. I don't know what to tell you, man.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: And his ERA this month is over 7%. So he's
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: not pitching well here. Even though his team is winning
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: some of these games, they're putting up a lot of
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: runs behind him. I can't trust a strikeout walk ratio
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: like this man, which is literally almost a half. I mean,
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: that is so bad. And his hit rate is also
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: too high. So I like Texas in the first five
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: in this game, and it really almost made the cut
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: for me. But The more I looked at this shit
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: right here, I'm like, I can't do this. I can't
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: back Gore in his current form. His hit rate is
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: all right on the season. His walk rate is too high.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is high as well, though. He's got
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: a 2.5 strikeout walk ratio, which is not that great
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: considering that his strikeout rate is pretty good at 9.3. So, again,
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: he is too wild. But he is good against the Mets, so...
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: That's the other reason I was looking at this. 80
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: at bats is a huge sample here. 200 average allowed,
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: 639 OPS, 23 to 7 strikeout walk ratio, which is
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: not that bad, especially for Gore. So his matchup numbers
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: look like he has the upper hand here. That is
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: still what I would do if I was going to
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: play this. I would play Texas first five because at
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: least Gore might kind of labor through those first five innings,
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 2: get you there. He has good matchup numbers. At least
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: he is good at home at least. He's got the
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: matchup edge against Minaya, but I just can't trust Gore
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: given his recent numbers, man. Maybe I'm being way too
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: selective here. Money is coming in on Texas. 71% of tickets,
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: 94% of the cash on them. Money seems to agree
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: with me. They're not that heavy of a price at
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: minus 130 or so, but you have to lay a
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: half run with them in the first five because the
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: odds makers know the Mets are going to have a
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: bullpen edge here, so I'm cutting the Texas bullpen out
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: of the equation with that opinion there. I would lay
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: the half run with Texas in the first five and
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: hope that they do what they usually do behind Gore
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: and get a bunch of runs. That's what you're going
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: to need there. Maybe they will. But the total's kind
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: of low in this game. That worries me too as
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: far as wanting Gore to get a bunch of run
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: support here. Minaya's not good against Texas. We know this,
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: but the total's at eight for the full game basically,
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: or seven and a half, so it's not a high total.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: Money is slightly tilted towards the over here, but the
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: odds makers are kind of saying they think it's going
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: to be a low scoring game here. So yeah, it's
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: not good enough. I'm being really selective today, man. Like
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: I said, I only have one play. I haven't gotten
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: to it yet. And it's contingent on the listed starters
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: actually being the listed starters here. And then I will
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: have that one play. And if it's not, then I'm
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: skipping the entire board today. It is what it is.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: I'll be right back and talk about these remaining games
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: this is yeah there you go you get an hour
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: of me just bullshitting pretty much if like what are
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: my strongest opinions so far today I don't know, man.
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: I think the first five under in Tampa Yankees game two,
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: that one looks quite good to me, but it's going
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: to be a really low number that I don't love,
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: so that worries me still. I think that's the best one.
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: That and Toronto-Baltimore over. I think those two are my
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: strongest opinions out of all these games that I've talked
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: about so far. All right, I'll be right back. Yep, inside.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: I want to kill myself. We are on an 0-7
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days. After tonight, it was
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: just complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going to start
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: off this show. Horrible Sunday, 1-5. I don't even know
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: what to tell you about that. I just don't want
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: to do this anymore. I have never seen anything like this, man.
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: With the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a good day.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 3: At all, 0-4.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: I just have not had a good season, man. What
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: can I say? slump that I'm on and the slump
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: continues I've reached a new peak actually I'm gonna burn
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: my Bruins hat man I don't know what is going
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: on with the Bruins March 8th is that what it
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: is I don't even know it's March 9th I think
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: who even knows man I don't know what day it
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: is anymore I don't even know what day it is
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: anymore man back with you after the worst day that
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: I could possibly have back with you as I always
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: am until I die at least 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: did not go well for me. 0-5, the worst month
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: that I've ever had in my 18 years doing this.
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: even know what I should do at this point other
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: than potentially end it all. Yes, Hindi and what's up, man? Yes,
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: thank you, sir. Yes, we have many, many concerts to
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: hit here. Two nights in a row for me. I'm
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: going to die. Way too many shows, man. I have, like,
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: I don't know, maybe seven shows across, like, a two-week
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: span that I'm going to. It's a lot of stuff, man.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: I like live music. What can I say? All right,
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: we have Arizona, Colorado here. This game, on the surface,
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: this looks like the matchup heavily favors Arizona here. Plus,
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: you know, Arizona is going to be motivated here, but Colorado,
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: they got a chance to play divisional spoiler here. At
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: least they're staying at home. They're kind of playing motivated recently.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: At least they had some close games there against the
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: Mariners and they won one of them to Colorado staying
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: at home. Both teams are off yesterday. We know Arizona
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: was fighting for their lives here. They're five games behind
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: San Diego right now for that last wildcard spot. So,
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: They're not in good shape here. They need to win,
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 2: but everybody knows that, so you have to lay a
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: huge price with Arizona here. Arizona, possible letdown, maybe, because
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: they did just beat the Yankees two games in a row.
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: Now they're starting a road trip, but they do have momentum,
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: at least. Starting a road trip, a lot of times,
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: is a positive. You focus. You want to get the
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: road trip off on the right foot here. Arizona does
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: have the bullpen edge, even though I don't love their bullpen,
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: but they've actually been pretty good recently. They're number five. Overall,
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: I still don't think they're that good, but their ERA
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: is well below four now, where it was above it
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: for almost the whole season. I'll give them credit. They're
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: a decent bullpen. The Rockies are not. The Rockies are
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: number 27. They're a bad bullpen. Rockies have the better offense.
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: They're number five. Arizona is number 19. Arizona's starting to
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: hit a little bit better again recently, though, I think.
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: Arizona's got Michael Soraka on the mound here. He's pretty good.
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: He's been hurt for a decent chunk of the season, though,
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: but he's got a 3.45 ERA, 1.13 whip. Those are
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: good numbers. He's not as good on the road, 4.57
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: road ERA. He came back from injury most recently in
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: early September. I guess he's made two starts in September.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: They've kind of ramped him up. They ramped up his
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: pitch count more in his last start. And his team
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 2: lost the last two games that he pitched, but it
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: wasn't really his fault necessarily. He gave up four runs
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: in nine innings so far. That's all right. Ten strikeouts,
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: two walks, only five hits allowed. So he's not really
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 2: pitching that poorly. He kind of got a little bit
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: unlucky in allowing three runs in Kansas City there. So
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I think Soraka is pitching okay right now.
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: He does have a low hit rate on the season.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: He doesn't really walk anybody either. His strikeout rate is
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: fairly high as well, so those numbers are good. But
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 2: one thing you've got to be aware of in Coors
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: Field is how home run heavy are. He hasn't really
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: allowed many home runs. His home run rate's not bad,
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: but he is still kind of a fly ball pitcher,
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: so something to be aware of in Coors Field. His
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: numbers are still not exactly horrible here for a Coors
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: Field game, though, and he did pitch in Coors Field
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: back in May, and he did okay in that one.
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: He gave up two runs in five and two-thirds innings,
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: did not allow a home run in that one. Six
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: hits allowed, eight strikeouts, two walks. So he was not
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: bad in that particular game. Let me see. On the
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: course of the season, he's got a 3.9 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: That's pretty good. 8.7 strikeout per nine is all right.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: His numbers against Colorado, you know they're going to be
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: pretty good, and they are. 54 at-bats, 185 average allowed,
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: 476 OPS, 15 to 5 strikeout walk ratio. So, yeah,
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: I do think Soraka should pitch well here. You know,
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: he was able to pitch well in Colorado earlier this year,
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: so it seems like he should be able to do
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: it again. He's got good numbers against him, and he's
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: not hugely home run conducive, really. Kyle Freeland is pitching
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: for Colorado. He's not good. What else is new? 6.3 ADRA, 1.47 WIPP.
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: Somehow his ERA is better at home, 5.82 home ERA,
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: which is still not good. Last time out he pitched here,
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: he was not good at all. He gave up eight hits,
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: three home runs against San Diego, and he's lucky all
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: three were solo shots. He was not good in that game.
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: He's not pitching well right now. His last two home games,
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: he didn't make it five innings in either of them.
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: He had one good start recently at San Francisco. Actually,
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 2: he had one other really good one at home against
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: Kansas City, so he's had some random hits. Really good
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: starts in here, but aside from those, he's been really bad.
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: He's got a really high hit rate. He allows a
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: lot of home runs. He is fairly fly ball heavy,
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: although given his home run rate, you'd expect him to
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: be more fly ball heavy, which he kind of isn't.
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: He doesn't really walk many guys. His strikeout rate's not
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: great either, but he's just really hittable. He's got a 3.7
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, I mean, because he doesn't really walk, guys. 7.3
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine, but he just... He throws BP out there, basically, like,
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: you know, batting practice. He basically just throws pitches over
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: the plate, and he gets hit. Freeland against the Diamondbacks,
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: not good numbers here at all. Huge sample to 119 at-bats,
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: 18-16 strikeout walk ratio, really bad. Marte destroys him. If
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: you think Marte is in the right headspace... He's got
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: half of the at-bats here against him, 51 at-bats. He's really,
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: really crushed him. So if you want hits plus runs
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: plus RBIs over, you could look at Marte. Arenado and
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: Corbin Carroll both hit him hard as well in a
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 2: decent amount of at-bats. 361 average allowed, 1,067 OPS against
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: Arizona as a whole. So, yeah, Freeland has some bad
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: numbers here. Arizona should win this game, obviously, They got
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: the pitching edge throughout this game. The problem is the
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: price is kind of ridiculous. Minus 200 as a road team.
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: The money is not agreeing with Arizona. 89% of tickets,
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: 83% of the cash on them. So the money is
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: back in Colorado in this one. I wouldn't do it.
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: I just don't really see it, man. Yeah, I don't
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: know what else to say. I mean, it's all about
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: the price. You know you have to pay too much
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: for Arizona here. given that they need to win, and
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: Colorado never gets any respect in the market. Totals around 10.5
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: or 11 here. Of course, if you like the over here,
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: you want to try to get the 10.5, because 11
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: is a key number, but it looks like you're not
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: going to find it. It looks like it's 11 everywhere,
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: or 10.5 with extremely heavy juice. The money is definitely
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: back in the over in this one, so do with
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: that info what you want. You know, the best way
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: to play this is probably to take Arizona's team total over. Like,
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: why are we overthinking this? Pun intended, I guess. You
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? One thing they pretty much know
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: is that Freeland is a bad pitcher. He's not good
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: against Arizona. Colorado's bullpen's not good either. Arizona's got to
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: be focused here, which means maybe the bats will show up,
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: even though, yes, they were off yesterday. Both teams were.
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: That's probably the way to do this, is to play
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: Arizona's team total over. But... You're going to need him
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: to score seven runs here probably if you do that,
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: and that is a lot to ask. You know what
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: I mean? But that still might be the better way
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: to play this game, to be honest. It's not a
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: game that's priced such that you can't even play it.
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: That's what the oddsmakers do in baseball. In a game
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: that they know is kind of a mismatch like this,
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: they'll price it so that it's unbettable to the professionals
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: pretty much. All right, Anaheim and the A's. I do
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: have an opinion on this. I looked at this game
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: in my immemorial... thought was this has to be an over. Like,
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: this game is in the A's stadium. You know, we
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: just talked about Colorado. The A's stadium is very hitter-friendly
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: as well. Not in high elevation, but it's just a...
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: a small stadium where balls fly out of it. The
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: A's are playing horrible. They've lost six games in a row.
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: They're also returning home from that road trip. They lost
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: every game on the road trip. But you might think, oh,
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: that'll be good that they're back at home. No, it's not.
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: They have almost no home advantage because their home stadium
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: is terrible. And a return home spot is never good, man.
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: And they're returning home to the Pacific Coast from the
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: central time, the eastern time zone, actually. That's not good.
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 2: Like I was talking about, when you have to readjust
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 2: your biological clock to play late night like this on
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: the Pacific Coast when you're on Eastern time, it's not
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: a good thing. It's a negative thing. So this is
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: a bad spot for the A's. Neither team has much
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 2: motivation here, so I don't really necessarily want the Angels
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: in this game, but the A's are definitely in a
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: fade spot. The return home spot plus the shift to
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 2: the West Coast time. Again, by the way, That football
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: game last night was one of those East Coast teams
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 2: going West Coast. They did not look good, the Giants,
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 2: even though I know Dart got hurt really early. But still, again,
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: like I said, I think the Rams were going to
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: be the right side in that game anyway. So whatever.
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: But yes, the A's are in a very negative spot
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: here for all those reasons. Could be the home distractions, whatever.
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: The A's home record is also ass, 29-46. They do
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: not have much of a home advantage at all. Although
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: the Angels are really bad on the road. I don't
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: really want the Angels here, although the Angels are starting
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 2: a road trip off of getting shut out at home
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: by the Twins. So I think it is a better
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: spot for the Angels. You know, thinking about this a
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: little more, I don't know. I wasn't really thinking about
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: the side that much when I was thinking about this
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: game earlier because my mind was thinking this game looks
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: like an over. Maybe there is something that you could
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: do with the side here, though. Let me think about this.
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: So the Angels are coming up getting shut out at home,
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: and a lot of times teams do bounce back after that.
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: The Angels are staying in the Pacific time zone because
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: they were at home. Now they're going up the coast, basically,
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: to Sacramento now, not Oakland. So not the coast, but
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: you know. Better spot for the Angels, though. Starting a
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: road trip usually is a focus spot. Usually teams bounce
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: back after they get embarrassed at home. The Angels' offense
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 2: is not good at home, and they are not a
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: good offense, but they should perform better on the road here.
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: The Angels are the better bullpen, even though I don't
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: know if I want to trust them. They're number 22.
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: The A's are number 28, but the A's are the
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: worst bullpen in baseball. The Angels' offense is terrible, though.
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: They're dead last, number 30. The A's are number 18,
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: but the A's have Not been hitting that well recently either.
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: Angels have used to say Kikuchi on the mound, and
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: that's where I kind of run into a problem with
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: wanting to back the Angels. I mean, his numbers are
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: not good. 5.02 ERA, 1.55 whip. But the one thing
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 2: we know about Kikuchi is he's way worse on the
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 2: road than he is at home. He's somewhat backable at home,
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: but on the road, you pretty much want to fade him.
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: He's got a 5.66 road ERA. It's been that way
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: throughout his career. He's always worse on the road. He
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: had a bad home start last time out. His current
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: form is not good, dude. 15 strikeouts, 12 walks. Even
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: though he hasn't allowed that many runs this month, his
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: last start was bad against Seattle. Anaheim's lost... Let me see.
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: Since he came back from injury, let's do it that way.
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: They've lost four of his last five since he came
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: back from injury in late August, so they're not playing
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: well behind him. His 15-12 strikeout walk ratio this month
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: is abysmal. Even though his ERA looks good, he has
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: not been good. He's always had problems with being wild.
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 2: He's got a high hit rate on the season, too.
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: His walk rate's not very good. His strikeout rate is good,
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: so he does strike guys out at least. He's not
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 2: a real heavy fly ball pitcher, but I don't know, man.
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 2: I still don't really want to trust him in this stadium.
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: Let me see, though. Against the A's, though, he does
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: actually have good numbers. At 36 at-bats, 250 average allowed,
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: 651 OPS, 8-2 strikeout walk ratio. Maybe you can somewhat
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: trust him here. Jonah Heim is the only hitter in
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: their lineup that actually does well against him, pretty much,
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: in any decent-sized sample. I still don't want to back
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: Kikuchi in his current form and on the road here, though, man.
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: The A's are going with Brady Basso, so it basically
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: looks like it's going to be a bullpen game from them.
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: He's a relief arm. They've had him opening some games recently.
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: He's gotten three-ish innings on average in some of these games.
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: He hasn't been that bad in doing it, but he's,
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, he's been too hittable. His
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: numbers overall are not very good. He doesn't strike guys out.
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate's really low. He doesn't really walk anybody,
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: but he's way too hittable. His strikeout rate's too high.
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: um four strikeout walk ratio because his walk rate is
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: so low but he's just not impressive dude 6.3 k's
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: for nine basso against the angels they only have two
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: guys who have faced him though they're over too often
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: with no strikeouts no walks but i still don't trust
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 2: this the a's are basically going bullpen game here and
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: as far as kikuchi did i look at his overall
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: numbers here No, he's got a 2.1 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: Kikuchi does. That's not good. And his 9.1 case per
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: nine is actually all right. What do we do with
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 2: this game? I mean, I still think I'm going to
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: come back around to saying the best way to play
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: this game is to take the over. And the money
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: seems to actually agree with that one quite strongly. 64%
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: of tickets on the under, but 93% of the cash
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: on the over. I don't really know why the public
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: seems to want the under here. The total, you know,
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: you're not going to get the nine on this. I
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: don't think it's nine and a half is the number here.
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 2: So you're not on that key number nine. But I
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 2: still think the over makes sense. And you know it's
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: the A's stadium. Usually you're going to get around a
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: 10 for a total in an A's game like this
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: at home. So it's a very hitter-friendly stadium. So the
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: over makes the most sense to me still in this game.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: And I do lean towards Anaheim as well. Maybe just
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 2: in the first five. Although I guess you could do
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 2: it full game just because the A's bullpen is so bad. But...
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: I think Anaheim first five might make more sense if
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: you want to just lean into Kikuchi, at least having
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: good matchup numbers against the A's here. But his current
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: form and his road numbers really, really worry me. The
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: price is about a pick'em, basically, here. But that makes
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: Anaheim almost look a little tempting, honestly, even though both
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: these teams have terrible records. The public seems to slightly
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 2: lean towards Anaheim here because they know how bad the
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 2: A's really are. 63% of tickets and cash on Anaheim here.
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: Although you'd think the public would still be against Anaheim
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: because their offense is so bad, but I don't know.
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 2: Maybe they trust Kikuchi more because they kind of know
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 2: the name, but I don't know. I'd still lean Anaheim
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: first five here, money line, but I think the over
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: is the preferable way to play that. Houston and Seattle.
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 2: Seattle's returning home from a road trip, and you know
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: I don't like that. They went to the A's, Angels,
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: and then into Colorado, into the Rockies, where they finally
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 2: actually won a series. Seattle's pretty much a dead team, though, man.
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: And you got a dead team returning home from a
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: long road trip. That's not a good spot. I think
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: it's a negative spot for Seattle, a fade spot for them.
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: Problem is they probably have the better pitcher on the
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 2: mound here, and they might still want to play spoiler
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 2: against Houston because it's still a divisional matchup here, you know.
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 2: So at the very least, they can knock Houston down.
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 2: Maybe Seattle's sick of Houston winning this division a lot
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 2: over the recent years. So yeah, Seattle might be motivated
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: for that reason, but it's still a return home spot,
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: which is very negative. Houston absolutely has something to play for,
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 2: of course, because they're one game out of the AL
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 2: West right now. and potentially they could be a wild
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 2: card too but their easiest path to the playoffs is
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: obviously to win this division and they can certainly still
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: do that one game back they're coming off getting swept
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 2: at home by the Braves now they're starting a road
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: trip so that should be a focus spot for Houston
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 2: but I will say that they're having to travel from
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 2: the central time zone out west and that's not great
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: for your biological clock having to go out west you
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 2: know what I mean but then again the Mariners are
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 2: coming back in from mountain time so It's still a
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 2: little bit better for the Mariners here, though, as far
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 2: as the bioclock spot. Houston has to adjust two hours
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 2: over here later and play a late game, so that's
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: not great. But motivation does favor Houston. You know, I
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: like teams starting a road trip over teams returning home
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 2: from a road trip, especially when Houston's the more motivated team.
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: And Seattle's actually the favorite here because of the pitching matchup.
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: So if you do like Houston... You're at least going
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 2: to get them with some potential value here as an underdog.
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: As far as the bullpens, Houston is the better bullpen.
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 2: They're number 14. They haven't been great, really, but Seattle's
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 2: been a very disappointing bullpen this year, number 21. They've
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 2: definitely been not so good. Seattle's also been really weak
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 2: offensively this year, number 27, tied with Cleveland and Toronto. Houston,
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: number nine, so Houston's the better offense here as well.
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: Houston does not have the better starting pitcher on the mound,
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: though Christian Javier is pitching for them. He's not good. 5.31 ERA, 1.46 whip.
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: He's had certain points in his career where he's been
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: pretty good, but this year, yeah, things are not going well.
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: He's also not good on the road. 5.59 road ERA,
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: although this is a pitcher-friendly ballpark here. He's been somewhat
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: better in his recent starts. This month, he's allowed two
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: or fewer earned runs in all three of his starts
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 2: this month so that's not bad however his walk rate
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 2: has still been pretty high but he's been hard to
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 2: hit and he's had a decent strikeout rate this month
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: so maybe you give him a little bit of a
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 2: pass for being a But that is one of the
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 2: main concerns with him is his wildness. But this year
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 2: he's been too hittable as well. His hit rate's too high.
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: His walk rate's too high. His strikeout rate is just okay.
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: He's got a 2.2 strikeout walk ratio, which is not
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 2: that good. 8.4 strikeout per nine is all right. Javier
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 2: against Seattle is actually really good. In 62 at bats,
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 2: 177 average allowed, 580 OPS. The only issue yet again
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 2: is the walks. 27 strikeouts, 13 walks though. But he
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 2: might actually match up okay here. Javier's been pitching okay recently,
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: and he has good matchup numbers against Seattle, and it's
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: not a good spot for Seattle. Seattle's got Logan Gilbert
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 2: on the mound. He's got a 3.69 ERA, 1.06 whip.
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: He's been good on the season, although he's not been
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 2: as good at home. 4.41 home ERA, and he's allowed
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 2: 24 of his 28 home runs this year at home,
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 2: which is An insane stat because Seattle is a pitcher-friendly ballpark,
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 2: and the fact that he's allowed that many home runs
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 2: here is kind of unbelievable. Gilbert, even though he is
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 2: a bit of a fly ball pitcher. But even with
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: that being said, that amount of home runs allowed at
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 2: home is completely ridiculous. Although, he's pitched well in his
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 2: last two outings. One at home, one on the road
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 2: against Texas and Anaheim, though. Houston is the better offense
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 2: out of those three teams. And the last time he
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 2: faced a decent offense here at home against the A's,
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 2: the A's smashed him. So that's maybe not a great sign.
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 2: But Gilbert, he still has good command numbers here. He's
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 2: had a really high strikeout rate this month, and he's
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 2: not walking that many guys, so his command numbers here
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 2: are good this month, even if he has been a
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 2: little bit too hittable. On the season, he's been hard
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 2: to hit. His hit rate's low. His walk rate's not
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: bad either. His strikeout rate is high, so all those
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 2: numbers are good. And he's been, mostly he's been better
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 2: at home recently too. That start that he had against
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: the A's was actually kind of an outlier at this point.
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: Like most of his recent home starts over the last
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 2: few months have been good. Gilbert overall, he's got a 4.2
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. That's not bad at all. 9.8 Ks
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 2: per nine. Yeah, those numbers are good. And Gilbert against
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 2: Houston is also pretty good. In 184 at bats, 46
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 2: to 10 strikeout walk ratio is good. The only guy
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 2: that really hits him in a big sample here is Altuve.
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 2: Most of the rest of these guys have not done
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 2: a whole lot against him. 223 average, 670 OPS against,
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 2: so those are pretty good. I think this game is
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 2: an under, man. The total is 7.5. Both pitchers look
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 2: like they match up all right here. I still kind
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 2: of lean Houston. I think just the situational spot and
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 2: the motivational spot favors Houston. You're getting them as an underdog.
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 2: Seattle's around the minus 140 price range here. And the
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: sharper books here, like the C book in Vegas, they
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 2: have that number a lot lower. So there is definitely
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 2: a sharp lean, I would say, towards Houston. But we
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 2: see 75% of tickets, 90% of the cash on Seattle.
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 2: So it looks like the money, as far as the percentages,
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 2: is on Seattle. But I think there are reasons to
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 2: like Houston in this one. I still worry about it
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 2: because Gilbert overall is the better pitcher over Javier here. Um,
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 2: I would lean Houston anyway, though, um, possibly full game.
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 2: Cause I do think they actually have the better bullpen
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: here too. Um, So yeah, Houston, you could get them
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: as a nice underdog price in the full game. That
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 2: makes sense to me, and I think I like the
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 2: under more, though. The total is 7.5. Both pitchers have
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 2: good matchup numbers here. 82% of tickets, 77% of the
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: cash on the over, so the money is back in
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: the under. Public seems to be on the over. Both
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 2: teams were off yesterday. The other thing that I say is,
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 2: you know, when you have two teams that are both
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 2: Switching time zones like this, and Seattle returning home from
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 2: a road trip like this, and both teams are off yesterday,
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: that can affect the offenses negatively. The timing can be off,
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 2: shifting time zones, having a day off. It'll help the
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: bullpens as well, even though I don't love the bullpens here.
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 2: You know, I like this one. Let me see, man.
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 2: Do I really want to add this as a play, though?
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 2: Let me see. I'm looking at what Action Network has
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: to say about this, even though you'd have to pay
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 2: for this. Let me see. Yeah, you know, the under
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: doesn't look bad here. Hmm. Yeah, you know, I mean,
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: the current form for both pitchers is really not that bad.
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 2: This does meet most of my criteria here. The under 7.5,
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 2: the best number you can get, though, is... Minus 125,
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 2: I don't exactly love that. You can play under 7
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 2: at plus money, at plus 104. Oh no, I see
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: under 7 to have a minus 105 at the scoreboard
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 2: book that used to be the ESPN book. You know,
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 2: if you guys don't have that book there, you're going
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 2: to have to pay more for this, so I apologize,
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 2: but I am going to add this as a play.
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 2: On the fly.
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 2: Houston, Seattle, under 7.5, minus 105 here. At least we
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 2: have rested bullpens, even though I don't know if I
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: fully trust these bullpens, but let's do it, man. That'll
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 2: be a play for me. Hopefully we can get some
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 2: wins today out of this shit, but yes. If you
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 2: play this, you might want to play under 7 at
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 2: plus money, though, but I would lay up to about
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 2: minus 120, if you can find that, for the under 7.5.
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: But I see under minus 125 at most shops, so
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Do what you want with all that.
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 2: Then we have Minnesota, San Francisco. These teams played yesterday.
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 2: San Francisco won, even though they were in a return
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 2: home spot. Minnesota's basically dead at this point, along with
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 2: San Francisco's long dead. But San Francisco somehow won in
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 2: a return home spot and coming off a series against
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers. I did not think San Francisco was going
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 2: to win that game, and they did, 5-2. We know
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 2: that Minnesota's bullpen is not very good here. As far
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 2: as the bullpen usage, Minnesota used two guys yesterday. San
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 2: Francisco used four. I don't like either bullpen, really. San
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 2: Francisco's 24th, although their ERA is definitely better than the Twins.
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 2: Twins are number 29, so technically San Francisco probably does
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 2: still have a bullpen edge here. Minnesota's the better offense.
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 2: They're number 16. San Francisco's 20th, and they're not very
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 2: good at home either, even though they put up some
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 2: runs yesterday. Taj Bradley is on the mound for Minnesota.
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 2: He's been decent, 3.81 ERA. 1.23 whip, although he's not
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 2: as good on the road. 4.47 road ERA. He's in
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 2: good form recently, though. A lot of strikeouts recently. Hard
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 2: to hit. Not allowing many runs here. The problem is
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 2: he walks too many guys. I mean, that's his one issue.
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate on the season. His
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 2: walk rate's too high. His strikeout rate is also high, though.
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 2: So that's what you're going to get with him. He
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 2: is a fly ball pitcher, but San Francisco is a
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 2: pitcher-friendly ballpark. That can knock the balls down. That doesn't
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 2: sound right. He's got a 2.7 strikeout walk ratio. That's
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 2: not great. But it's whatever. 10.4 strikeout per nine is good.
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 2: But again his problem is the walks. Are just too high.
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 2: But the Giants might not be able to take advantage.
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 2: They haven't really seen him before. They have two guys
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 2: who have faced him. The only hit is Knisner with
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 2: a single against him, and that's it. They have no strikeouts,
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 2: no walks against him. Knisner and Meyer are combined. Former
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 2: Red Sox player Meyer, they were combined one for six
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 2: off Bradley. 167 average, 333 OPS against overall. But Bradley's
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 2: mostly unfamiliar overall. to San Francisco, so I think that's
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: going to help him actually pitch fairly well in this one,
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 2: in my opinion, with the unfamiliar. Anthony Molina is pitching
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 2: for the Giants. He's actually been okay. 4.18 ERA, 1.11 whip,
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 2: although as a home pitcher, he's been awful. 8.68 home ERA.
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 2: That is not good. It's a small sample. Since he's
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 2: been on San Francisco, he was on the Braves prior
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 2: to that. His home numbers are being skewed because he
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 2: had one really bad home start against San Diego, but
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 2: his other home start was okay against the Reds, although
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 2: he didn't strike out many guys in that one. So overall, yeah,
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 2: actually has a pretty good strikeout rate here. His walk
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 2: rate's low, so that stuff isn't bad. His hit rate
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 2: is all right. His walk rate's low. His strikeout rate
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 2: is decent, so I don't think he's that bad of
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 2: a pitcher. He's young, so it kind of remains to
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 2: be seen. 4.2 strikeout walk ratio is not bad. Eight
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine is okay. Minnesota pretty much hasn't seen
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 2: him as you could probably expect. Bell and Lewis are
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: combined over three off him. No strikeouts, no walks. Yeah,
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: I think this game might be a first five under.
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think that is probably how I would
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 2: look in this game. It's a public over. 91% of tickets,
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 2: 94% of the cash on the over. Of course, the
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 2: total is low. seven and a half so the odds
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 2: makers expect more of a pitching type of game here
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 2: I agree but I don't trust these bullpens I think
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 2: first five under you're going to be looking at three
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 2: and a half there I don't really want to do
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 2: it but I think that is the way to play
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 2: this game and Minnesota's public 78% of tickets and cash
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 2: on them at about minus 130 the public is always
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 2: going to take the more recognizable pitcher along with the
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 2: better team and that's what they're doing there so Minnesota's public, man,
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 2: so maybe there is a little bit of value on
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 2: the Giants as the underdog here. I don't know if
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 2: I'd want to trust their bullpen, though, after the usage
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: yesterday and how they're not really that good. So maybe
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 2: San Francisco first five with maybe Molinas. kind of a
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 2: sneaky play there I don't really trust the fact that
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 2: he was pretty bad in that last home start though
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 2: so I wouldn't really want to do that either I
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 2: think the first five under makes more sense even though
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 2: that would involve Molina having to pitch well as well
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 2: And then we have our final game where I do
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 2: want to make this play, but it's all going to
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 2: depend on this pitching matchup actually happening. I like the
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 2: under in San Diego and L.A., and this is going
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 2: to be dependent on the matchup being King and Yamamoto.
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 2: So I would say don't play this now. Although maybe
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 2: the number, if it's announced that Yamamoto is pitching, this
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 2: number might drop a little bit. But this is the
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 2: TBS late-night game. I only really like this if Yamamoto...
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 2: is going to be on the mound for the Dodgers. Man,
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 2: if it's not him, I think I'm going to pass
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 2: on the game. It depends on who's pitching for them, really. So,
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 2: Dodgers are on a nice run here. They've won four
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 2: games in a row. Neither team played yesterday, so you
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 2: know I like that as far as the under is concerned.
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 2: I like when teams are off. and it cools off
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 2: the hitting a little bit. The Dodgers are staying at
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 2: home here. They're coming off sweeping the Giants, whatever. Both
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 2: bullpens are pretty capable here. Dodgers, by the way, have
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 2: a really good home record, and San Diego's not very
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 2: good on the road. San Diego's hot right now. They've
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 2: won five games in a row. If they were able
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 2: to sweep the Dodgers, I guess it would make things
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 2: a little interesting, but there's still nine games behind the Dodgers,
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 2: so I wouldn't get too excited about that, but San
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 2: Diego does have a huge lead over Arizona now in
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 2: the wildcard race, and while Technically, yes, San Diego needs
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 2: to keep winning. They do have breathing room here. So
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 2: we'll see about that. But they're starting a road trip here.
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 2: I think this is, you know, usually it is a
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 2: focused spot when you start the road trip. So I
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 2: think it's an okay spot for San Diego. They're not
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 2: going to overlook the Dodgers, whatever. They're staying on the
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 2: West Coast as well. But with a day off, with
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 2: two decent bullpens here, San Diego's is good. San Diego's
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 2: number six. I think they're at least a top five bullpen.
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 2: Dodgers are number 10 in bullpen. They're not a bad
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 2: bullpen either. Yeah, the Dodgers are a good offense. They're
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 2: number two. San Diego's been at least better since the
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 2: All-Star break. They are up to number 15. So we
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 2: do have two pretty capable offenses here, but even so,
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 2: I like the pitching to outdo the hitting as long
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 2: as it's going to be Yamamoto or somebody else who
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 2: is capable and has good matchup numbers. It is a
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: good form. Michael King is pitching for San Diego. He's
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 2: pretty good. 3.03 ERA. 1.16 whip he's not too much
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 2: worse on the road 3.31 road era he's in good
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 2: form recently he's you know i mean the thing about
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 2: him is he doesn't strike out that many guys so
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 2: the advanced analytics guys don't like it but um his
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 2: team has won four starts in a row of his
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 2: he's coming off of a start in course field where
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 2: he pitched well so give him credit for that um Yeah,
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's pitching well recently, even if his strikeout
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 2: rate's not really that high. He's allowed three or fewer
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 2: earned runs in every start, going all the way back
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 2: to late July. So, yeah, he's pitching well. For the
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 2: most part, he's had a good season. He's got a
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 2: low hit rate. His walk rate is a little bit
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 2: concerning and his strikeout rate combined with that because it's
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 2: a low strikeout rate is a little bit of an issue.
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 2: He does get kind of a lot of ground balls too,
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 2: which is a good thing. I mean, that will help you. 2.3
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio is not good though. So the odds make,
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 2: excuse me, the advanced analytics guys won't love it. But
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 2: I mean, throughout his career, he's put up consistent numbers.
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 2: So it's not like there's like, You know, like you
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 2: expect him to regress. Well, okay, it hasn't happened throughout
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 2: his whole career, so when is that going to happen?
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 2: He's not that old yet, so whatever. 7.7 Ks per nine,
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 2: I get that that's not good. That's his lowest number
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 2: of his career pretty much, so that is a little
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 2: bit of an issue. But typically he is actually pretty
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 2: good against the Dodgers, believe it or not. Big sample,
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 2: 138 at-bats, 40 strikeouts, 15 walks. That's not a great ratio,
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 2: but it's not awful at least. 203 upon a batting
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 2: average at 622 OPS. So the Dodgers have not really
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 2: hit him well. Teoscar Hernandez and I guess Mookie Betts
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 2: have some decent numbers of him, but the rest of
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 2: this lineup does not hit him very well for the
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 2: most part. So I think he can match up well.
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 2: And I want it to be Yamamoto here as it
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 2: was listed because he's been really good, of course. 2.51 ERA,.
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 2: 87 whip, really, really good stuff. Although his ERA is
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 2: not quite as good at home. 3.13, it's still a
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 2: good one. Yamamoto's been in good form recently. He's got
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 2: a 25.5 strikeout walk ratio this month with an ERA
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 2: in the low twos. He had one blip where he
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 2: was not great against St. Louis, but he kind of
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 2: got unlucky in that start. He didn't put that many
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 2: guys on base. And if you throw that out, he's
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 2: allowed three or fewer earned runs. in every start over
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 2: the last couple months. So, yeah, he's in good form
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 2: right now. He's pitching well. Coming off a seven-inning, one-hit
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 2: shutout against the Reds on the road. He's got a
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 2: really low hit rate here. His walk rate's not bad either.
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is reasonably high. We know he's good. 4.3
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, 8.9 Ks per nine. All that's good.
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 2: And Yamamoto against San Diego, as you could guess, he's good.
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 2: 112 at bats. Big sample here. 232 average. 679 OPS,
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 2: 32 to 10 strikeout walk ratio. That's all good. We
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 2: want it to be him here though, man. We see
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 2: 75% of tickets, 87% of the cash on the over.
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 2: Totals at eight or eight and a half here. It
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 2: doesn't really matter which one of those numbers. It's going
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 2: to have to be Yamamoto or let me just look
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 2: at like, who else could it be for the Dodgers here?
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 2: Let me see. Who can it be now? Let me see.
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 2: Five games ago, who pitched for them? It was... Snell
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 2: was just an opener in that game, I guess. Is
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 2: Snell hurt against... Snell's day-to-day. Let me see. I don't
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 2: think he's going to pitch, though, because I think they
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 2: want to be careful with him. It looks like he
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 2: would be next, actually. So I think that's the question.
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 2: Is it going to be Snell? You know what? Snell
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 2: has really good numbers against San Diego as well. And
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 2: they're one of his former teams, by the way. I
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 2: don't know how up he gets for that, but... I
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 2: think I still like this under if it's Snell. As
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 2: long as Snell can overcome this injury thing and actually
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 2: pitch here. You know what I mean? Yeah, I mean,
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 2: I think that's the question. I think it's between Yamamoto
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 2: and Snell here. Let me see. It looks like Snell
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 2: is listed as the starter tomorrow, actually. Interesting. Yeah, I
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 2: think that's what I'll say. So I would still wait
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 2: and see who's going to pitch and follow my Instagram
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 2: and then you'll know if I'm going to actually give
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 2: it a play on this. If it's Yamamoto, I'm going
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 2: to do it. And if it's Snell, I think I
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 2: will do it as well. So I like the under
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 2: in that one. All right, we have WNBA, which, you know,
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 2: not my favorite thing, especially because we're going to have
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 2: a losing season in the WNBA. Fuck that shit. I
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 2: don't have a play today in the WNBA. Connecticut at Washington.
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 2: If I was going to play any game in the
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 2: WNBA tonight, I would take the points with Connecticut in
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 2: this one. Washington just beat Indiana. That was a good
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 2: win for them. Washington, I mean, they're going to be
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 2: in the playoffs. It's just a matter of seeding. I
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 2: don't know if that's really going to motivate them that much.
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 2: They're coming off a big win. They're technically returning home
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 2: from a road trip here, although it was only a
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 2: two-game road trip because, remember, there was the World Cup
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 2: break in between here. But they went to Chicago and Indiana.
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 2: Now they're returning home from that. They've been away for
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 2: less than a week, but it is still a return
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 2: home spot. And how much attention are you really going
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 2: to pay to the worst team in the league, pretty much,
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 2: with Connecticut? I don't think you're going to pay that
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 2: much attention, especially when you're coming off a big win
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 2: over Indiana. Plus, you're asking Washington, who is a defensive team,
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 2: to lay 16.5 points here. The money's all coming in
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 2: on Connecticut, by the way. 75% of tickets on Washington,
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 2: 57% of the cash on Connecticut. So the money agrees
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 2: with me on this. And the total's really low, even
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 2: though it's gone up a bit. It looks like some
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 2: money's coming in on the over, but it's 159, 159.5. So,
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 2: you know, I like playing big underdogs with a low
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 2: total like this because it makes it way harder for
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 2: the favorite to cover when it's going to be a
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 2: low-scoring game. And, again, Washington, they're not really built to
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 2: cover huge numbers like this as a favorite. They're a
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 2: defensive team, so... Given that, plus it's a letdown spot.
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 2: It's not really a sandwich spot because they have Chicago next.
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I think if I was going to play
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 2: any game in WNBA today, I would take Connecticut plus
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 2: the points. I'm tempted. I'm tempted to do it, you know,
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 2: given that it's a low total, given that the money's
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 2: agreeing with me on this. I don't know. Maybe my recent,
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 2: the recent bullshit that's gone on for me in the
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 2: WNBA has kind of kept me away from it. Should
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 2: we do it? I'm tempted, man. The market read looks
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 2: good to me. The total in the game looks good
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 2: to me as well. Yeah, whatever. I thought I was
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 2: going to potentially have no plays today, but now we're
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 2: getting a little bit out of control. I don't even care, man.
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 2: Let's just do it. Connecticut 16 and a half or
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 2: whatever the number is. I'm being stupid here, but let's
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 2: do it. Let me see what's the best number I
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 2: can get on this.
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 3: Hold on.
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 2: Let me see. Just, you know, for solidarity and whatever. Yeah,
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 2: Action Network doesn't really tell you exactly what the percentages
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 2: are really for the WNBA. Yeah, 16.5 is exactly what
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 2: you can get here. I'm adding it to my card here, though,
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 2: to track it. Hang on. Yes. And I would still
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 2: sprinkle like 1% to 3% of this bet on the
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 2: money line. A lot of these huge WNBA favorites cover,
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 2: so we'll take Connecticut. I don't even care what the
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 2: spot is. Well, Connecticut, I mean, we know that they're
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 2: They're at least playing. to not look like total ass
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 2: I mean they at least played a little bit they
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 2: actually covered against uh the Lynx in their last game
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 2: let me just make sure this game wasn't really that
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 2: close no it wasn't they lost by 12 I mean
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 2: they were kind of in the game sort of early
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter but They were down double digits
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 2: late in the game, so it wasn't really a game
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 2: where they were close at the end of the game
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 2: or anything like that. So, yeah, so Connecticut did kind
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 2: of redeem themselves in that game against Minnesota, which might
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 2: help us here because they're at least playing with a
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 2: little bit of effort here, and they're battle-tested after that game.
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 2: Washington will be an easier opponent to face. So, all right,
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 2: we'll do that. Speaking of Minnesota, they're playing at Indiana here,
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 2: and this is an interesting line where Indiana's actually favored
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 2: in this game. Or it looks like it's a pick
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 2: the winner, basically. It looks like Minnesota actually is now
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 2: the favorite at minus one and a half. It looks
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 2: like it's gone back and forth between each team being
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 2: a favorite. But to me, it looks too easy to
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 2: play Minnesota because everybody knows they're the best team in
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 2: the league. They're actually still fighting with Golden State, I think,
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 2: for the number one seed in the playoffs. Maybe Indiana
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 2: will get up enough for this that maybe you do
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 2: lean Indiana here. The total's really high. It's in the 180s,
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 2: although it's gone down Indiana plays high-scoring games, man. That's
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 2: what it is. But Minnesota is the better defense here,
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 2: and that would be my concern. Because, you know, in
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 2: a pick-the-winner situation, I do like the better defense a
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 2: lot of the time. But maybe this is an Indiana spot,
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 2: kind of. I don't know, man. 80% of tickets, 87%
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Indiana. So the money seems to agree.
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 2: I don't think the public is really playing Indiana here,
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 2: even though they do have Kaitlin Clark. I still think
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 2: it's more... professional money i don't think the public is
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 2: really playing the wmba for the most part here but
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 2: minnesota is coming up that you know whatever performance against
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 2: um connecticut but the good thing for minnesota is that
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 2: ended a three-game losing streak and that was their first
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 2: win since the world cup break so that should give
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 2: minnesota a little bit of momentum here and a little
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 2: bit of confidence moving forward here um although indiana is
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 2: definitely going to get up for this game too Indiana
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 2: just lost to Washington at home as, I assume, a favorite.
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 2: So Indiana's coming off an ugly loss as a favorite.
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 2: Indiana shot terribly in this game. And this is good
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 2: for us too, by the way, because Washington looked really
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 2: good in this game. We're going to fade Washington today.
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 2: This was Washington's most recent game too. So that does
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 2: help our case with fading Washington because look at the
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 2: numbers in this game. Washington hit 57% of their shots
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 2: and 50% from three, and they're not that much of
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 2: an offensive team, so they're going to regress, dude, after
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 2: a game like that, I would think, and Indiana just
• 1:51:03
  Speaker 2: had a terrible shooting game in that game. But Washington's
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 2: defense is good. But still, this was definitely a bit
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 2: of an outlier here. And that might help Indiana bounce
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 2: back a little bit. And you know when you have
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 2: a favorite like Indiana that loses outright in misleading fashion,
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 2: a lot of times they will bounce back. So I'm
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 2: going to slightly lean Indiana in that game against Minnesota.
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 2: But it makes me like Connecticut more. So Connecticut will
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 2: be on the card, I guess. As I already said,
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 2: they would be. Toronto at Chicago, I don't know, man.
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, Toronto looked really bad in their last game
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 2: against the Liberty, but that was the game we lost
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 2: the other day, and they were hanging around in that game.
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 2: Toronto was looking like they might cover in the third
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 2: quarter of that game, and then everything completely fell apart.
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 2: So I think it was a misleading loss. It wasn't
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 2: as bad as it looked on the scoreboard. Now they
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 2: get to go out on the road. Toronto's going to
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 2: try to win a game before the season's up, man,
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 2: because they're not playing well here, although I think Chicago
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 2: has not been winning recently either, no. So both teams
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 2: are going to be motivated here. I think Chicago just
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 2: had a little bit of a tougher loss at Atlanta.
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 2: Another coming back home from that. Uh, the money is
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 2: indicating pretty strongly on Toronto here. Chicago's linked six points,
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 2: 80% of tickets on the 59% of the cash on Toronto.
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 2: So the market reads this Toronto. I don't have a
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 2: strong reason to disagree with it. The game, the full
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 2: game totals high. Cause I think both of these defenses
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 2: are just not good at this point. Um, which maybe
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 2: the over makes sense in a game like this, you know,
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 2: where neither team really has that much to play for
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 2: because neither team's making the playoffs. A lot of times
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 2: it becomes like a scrimmage, and these games do kind
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 2: of have a tendency to go over. The money indicating
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 2: on Toronto and on the over, actually, for what it's worth,
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 2: high total, probably for a reason at 178, but I
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 2: would not play that game. LA at Vegas. This is
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 2: the other ESPN game. Minnesota in Indiana also on ESPN. Doubleheader.
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 2: Vegas has won five games in a row they're one
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 2: of the top teams in the league so they did
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 2: actually lose earlier in the season at home to LA
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 2: by the way Vegas has some bad games at home
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 2: for whatever reason man they might show up for this
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 2: one though because LA did come in here and beat
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 2: them earlier in the season but it was months ago
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 2: this one I believe it was a winner on the
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 2: show back when we were actually hot in the WNBA
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 2: unlike most WNBA players by the way Vegas I mean
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 2: they're good at home but they're not dominant at home
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 2: And you're asking him to lay 16 and a half here,
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 2: which seems like quite a bit. Uh, who does Vegas
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 2: play next? Let me say, because Vegas is coming off
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 2: some easy wins here against bad teams. Uh, they play
• 1:53:37
  Speaker 2: Phoenix next. It's not a huge deal, even though Phoenix
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 2: did spoil Vegas's ring ceremony and home opener and embarrass them. Uh,
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 2: and I give up Phoenix as a play there, but
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 2: Vegas has beaten them since then. So, and I believe
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 2: I gave up Vegas possibly in one of those games too.
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 2: So whatever, um, yeah, I don't know, man. I mean,
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 2: this is just a lot of points to lay here
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 2: in LA. I mean, I know they're without plum again.
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 2: They got a lot of injuries here, but they did
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 2: just beat Portland, which should give them a little bit
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 2: of confidence, at least coming into this game. I don't
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 2: think I would lay it with the aces though. You know,
• 1:54:10
  Speaker 2: like 71% of tickets, only 54% of the cash on
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 2: the aces. They're up to about a 16 and a half,
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 2: 17 point favorite here, even though 17 looks like it's
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 2: actually the sharp Vegas lean here. Um, I'm not buying it, really, though.
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 2: It is a high total, though, around 180, with money
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 2: coming in on the over. L.A. does not play good defense,
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 2: I will tell you that, but the money is indicating
• 1:54:34
  Speaker 2: towards L.A. I probably slightly agree with that. You know
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 2: you're not going to get any value laying the points
• 1:54:40
  Speaker 2: with Vegas, but it's not really a situation where I
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 2: want to come in and really fade Vegas. That's that.
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 2: And then Golden State-Portland. Kind of a weird game where
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 2: Portland just lost twice recently to the Valkyries. Once before
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 2: the World Cup break, they lost to them at home.
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 2: Then they played them on the road and lost to
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 2: them again after the break. And Portland has not won
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 2: a game since those games. So Portland, I think, should
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 2: at least get up for this. And even though the
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 2: Valkyries are actually trying to get the one overall seed
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 2: in the playoffs, they might overlook Portland a little bit here, man.
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 2: and not totally take them seriously because they've had Portland's
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 2: number in those last couple of games. So looking at
• 1:55:20
  Speaker 2: this game, it's really, really weird to see the golden States,
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 2: a 14 and a half point favorite here. Now, when
• 1:55:26
  Speaker 2: the last time they played in Portland, the line was
• 1:55:29
  Speaker 2: six and a half. I'm pretty sure. So what's going
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 2: on here? Well, what's going on is Portland has a
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 2: shitload of injuries. Um, like look at all, look at
• 1:55:37
  Speaker 2: this injury report for them. Um, I don't even know
• 1:55:40
  Speaker 2: who these players are, but they got a bunch of
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 2: injuries going on here at this point. So, um, I
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 2: think that's what's going on here. Portland has a lot
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 2: of players that are just going to miss this game,
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 2: but that's going to skew the line. The fact that
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 2: you're getting 14.5 instead of 6.5, does this shit warrant
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 2: an 8-point move here? I'm not so sure that it does.
• 1:56:00
  Speaker 2: Golden State, they're rolling along here. They're playing pretty well.
• 1:56:04
  Speaker 2: They're one of the better teams in the league, for sure.
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 2: They only have LA next. I don't know if that's
• 1:56:08
  Speaker 2: that big of a deal, but Again, because they've beaten
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 2: Portland a couple times recently, they might just not fully
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 2: pay attention to them here, especially if it's a weakened
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 2: Portland roster here. Portland, they'll at least try to show up,
• 1:56:22
  Speaker 2: you would imagine, for one of their final games of
• 1:56:23
  Speaker 2: the season here. In fact, this is literally their last
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 2: game of the season, actually. So, yeah, I would lean
• 1:56:32
  Speaker 2: Portland here. You know, final game of the season, you're
• 1:56:35
  Speaker 2: going to... at least try to win the game, you
• 1:56:38
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? Even though a lot of their
• 1:56:40
  Speaker 2: players are going to be backups here, the backups a
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 2: lot of times play well because they want a job
• 1:56:45
  Speaker 2: and whatever, and they get excited. We finally get to
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 2: go out and play, and they like to use it
• 1:56:50
  Speaker 2: as a showcase. Plus, again, it's the team's last game
• 1:56:53
  Speaker 2: of the season, home game. Their final home game is
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 2: an expansion team. I know it didn't work out well
• 1:56:58
  Speaker 2: for Toronto the other day, but I still think it's
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 2: a motivator, so I still think Portland will get up.
• 1:57:04
  Speaker 2: for the final home game of their inaugural season so
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 2: i would lean portland in this one the money seems
• 1:57:09
  Speaker 2: to agree 60 of tickets 50 of the cash on
• 1:57:11
  Speaker 2: golden state money seems to be back in portland and
• 1:57:15
  Speaker 2: it is a low total again it's another one in
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 2: the high 150s so you get a double digit dog
• 1:57:21
  Speaker 2: with a high total here in this one if that's
• 1:57:22
  Speaker 2: what you want golden state They're a better offensive team,
• 1:57:25
  Speaker 2: I think, than Washington is, but they still mostly kind
• 1:57:28
  Speaker 2: of focus on defense, and it looks like it might
• 1:57:30
  Speaker 2: be kind of a get-in, get-out type of game for
• 1:57:32
  Speaker 2: Golden State. Also, Golden State doesn't want to get hurt.
• 1:57:35
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? Like, you know you're going
• 1:57:38
  Speaker 2: to be one of the top seeds in the playoffs.
• 1:57:40
  Speaker 2: You know you've got to focus on the playoffs at
• 1:57:41
  Speaker 2: this point if you're Golden State, so you might not
• 1:57:44
  Speaker 2: have full effort in some of these games, you know
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 2: what I mean, because you're getting ready for the playoffs.
• 1:57:47
  Speaker 2: So playoffs, that's going to do it, man. So we're
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 2: going to wind up with potentially three plays here. We're
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 2: on under 7.5 in baseball and Astros Mariners. We're going
• 1:57:58
  Speaker 2: to be on under 8.5 in San Diego and Dodgers.
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 2: As long as it is Yamamoto or Snell, I would say,
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 2: pitching in this one. And then, again, last minute, we
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 2: did add Connecticut plus 16 and a half in WNBA
• 1:58:12
  Speaker 2: I think it's the right spot to do it man
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 2: if we're gonna have a winning WNBA season we got
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 2: to make plays and we got to get back on
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 2: track man so I say we do it and I'll
• 1:58:22
  Speaker 2: probably at least have a couple of playoff plays so
• 1:58:26
  Speaker 2: And the regular season is not quite over yet either,
• 1:58:28
  Speaker 2: but that's going to do it. Learn a ton on Twitter.
• 1:58:31
  Speaker 2: Learn a ton on Instagram. Like, subscribe to the channel here.
• 1:58:34
  Speaker 2: On Instagram, I'll put up the video, especially for the
• 1:58:37
  Speaker 2: San Diego-LA game, confirming that it is going to be
• 1:58:41
  Speaker 2: on the card. If you subscribe here, you'll get notified
• 1:58:46
  Speaker 2: when I go live. I've been thinking maybe I should
• 1:58:47
  Speaker 2: do an NHL preview. I don't know much about the
• 1:58:50
  Speaker 2: NHL or any of the roster moves or whatever. I
• 1:58:53
  Speaker 2: can at least talk about the odds and whatever. So
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 2: NHL is starting a week from today, I believe. So
• 1:58:59
  Speaker 2: I will start having hockey plays on the show again
• 1:59:02
  Speaker 2: as well, which I do decent in hockey. So I'm
• 1:59:06
  Speaker 2: glad to see hockey coming back. And then I'll probably
• 1:59:09
  Speaker 2: do an NBA preview, which will be coming. NBA starts
• 1:59:12
  Speaker 2: about a month after that, so like later October. uh
• 1:59:18
  Speaker 2: what else do we have covered in you because my
• 1:59:20
  Speaker 2: you channel on youtube you can check that out uh
• 1:59:22
  Speaker 2: you can listen to this show on audio it's been
• 1:59:24
  Speaker 2: doing better on audio recently apple spotify speaker go check
• 1:59:27
  Speaker 2: that out patreon.com slash learn to tote if you want
• 1:59:30
  Speaker 2: to support me there uh what else loser cast tonight
• 1:59:35
  Speaker 2: but i will not be on it because i will
• 1:59:36
  Speaker 2: be going to a show but check out the show
• 1:59:38
  Speaker 2: anyway uh not the show i'm going to check out
• 1:59:41
  Speaker 2: loser cast and Honestly, no idea what's going on with
• 1:59:44
  Speaker 2: the G-Spot podcast. We did not, obviously, do a live
• 1:59:48
  Speaker 2: watch party last night. It would have been not fun, necessarily,
• 1:59:52
  Speaker 2: to watch that blowout of a game, although at least
• 1:59:54
  Speaker 2: I had a play on the Rams, so winning, you know,
• 1:59:57
  Speaker 2: winning bets is at least still fun, but as a
• 2:00:02
  Speaker 2: pseudo-fan of the Giants and a huge fan of the Tars,
• 2:00:05
  Speaker 2: there were not a lot of things to love about
• 2:00:07
  Speaker 2: that game, so I just, you know... I pretty much
• 2:00:11
  Speaker 2: knew the Rams were going to win that game easily,
• 2:00:12
  Speaker 2: so that's what it was. Stay on the lookout, man.
• 2:00:15
  Speaker 2: We'll have more football content during the week, of course.
• 2:00:19
  Speaker 2: I have a couple ideas for plays already for situational
• 2:00:22
  Speaker 2: spots that I already like in college. In the NFL,
• 2:00:25
  Speaker 2: I think I kind of already know what my card
• 2:00:26
  Speaker 2: is going to look like. I have two plays that
• 2:00:29
  Speaker 2: are almost definite. I don't know if I'm going to
• 2:00:31
  Speaker 2: add a third or not, but there are some other
• 2:00:33
  Speaker 2: kind of leans that I have. I don't know if
• 2:00:34
  Speaker 2: I'm going to feel strongly enough about them, but there
• 2:00:37
  Speaker 2: are two plays in the NFL that I really, really like.
• 2:00:41
  Speaker 2: The way that I handicap, you might already be able
• 2:00:43
  Speaker 2: to predict what they are, but maybe. We will see.
• 2:00:47
  Speaker 2: Be on the lookout. That's going to do it. Thanks, guys.
• 2:00:49
  Speaker 2: I appreciate it. Peace.
• 2:00:53
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 2:00:57
  Speaker 2: Let somebody answer. Let somebody know.
• 2:01:01
  Speaker 3: You do not have to lose this round alone. Hold on,
• 2:01:14
  Speaker 3: not tonight, not now Hold on, hold on Let me
• 2:01:23
  Speaker 3: pull you out That bad luck bites hard But it
• 2:01:32
  Speaker 3: don't get the crown Hold on, hold.
• 2:01:38
  Speaker 1: On Stay with me now.
• 2:01:44
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on You're still here now guitar solo