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Trump Says He Wants a ‘Real End,’ Between Israel and Iran · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 2: Again.
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  Speaker 3: We want to get to sort of the main geopolitical
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  Speaker 3: risk right now, and that's the fighting between Iran and Israel,
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  Speaker 3: with President Trump leaving the G seven early to deal
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  Speaker 3: with that. Ethan Bronner is Bloomberg News Israel bureau Cheap
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  Speaker 3: and he joins US now. Over here in the US,
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  Speaker 3: we're trying to understand what the US position is when
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  Speaker 3: it comes to President Trump and what's happening in the
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  Speaker 3: Middle East. Where are we where you are in terms
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  Speaker 3: of what Israel is doing and what its end goal is.
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  Speaker 4: I say that the confusion over what the United States
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  Speaker 4: is going to do is equal here as it is there.
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  Speaker 4: Israel has set up this plan to try to take
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  Speaker 4: down the Iranian nuclear facilities as well as its ballistic
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  Speaker 4: missile capacity and its militia ability beyond its borders around Israel.
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  Speaker 4: So it's launched this plan. It says it can do
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  Speaker 4: it alone. It would love the United States to help out,
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  Speaker 4: in particular because there's one huge enrichment facility four DOH,
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  Speaker 4: which is deep in a mountain that would be best
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  Speaker 4: got in if you wanted to destroy it with thirty
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  Speaker 4: thousand pound bunker busters that only the United States has,
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  Speaker 4: that only its B two planes can lift.
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  Speaker 5: They're so heavy.
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  Speaker 4: So right now we're also we're all waiting to see
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  Speaker 4: might the US decide to join or might this moment
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  Speaker 4: be one where the Iranians decide to negotiate a degree
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  Speaker 4: not to enrich uranium Ethan.
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  Speaker 5: It just seems to me, at least that Israel as
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  Speaker 5: related to Iran, sees maybe a very rare opportunity to
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  Speaker 5: really deal almost kind of a death blow to them
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  Speaker 5: at or at least as a threat maybe even to their government.
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  Speaker 5: Is that the feeling in Israel that this is maybe
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  Speaker 5: a special moment of special opportunity for Israel.
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  Speaker 4: It's one hundred percent of the feeling in Israel, Paul.
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  Speaker 4: The thing is that, you know, it's one thing to
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  Speaker 4: say this is a rare moment to go after to
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  Speaker 4: defange this regime and take away its ability to be
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  Speaker 4: so destructive. It's another thing to say that therefore it's
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  Speaker 4: possible to overturn this regime. Look, it might be. It
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  Speaker 4: certainly would make them very happy in this country. But
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  Speaker 4: remember the Iran Iraq War went on for eight years
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  Speaker 4: and the regime in Iran put up with an enormous
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  Speaker 4: amount of suffering and it is still there forty years later.
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  Speaker 4: So it's a little bit of an you know, it
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  Speaker 4: could be an illusion to think that, just like in theory,
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  Speaker 4: by taking out being so painful in Gaza, that Hamas
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  Speaker 4: would yield. Hamas hasn't yielded yet, has it exactly?
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  Speaker 3: Is Israel listening to the United States or will it,
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  Speaker 3: like once we get clear on what President Trump's position is.
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  Speaker 4: I think Israel cares enormously about what the United States says,
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  Speaker 4: and I think it would not I'm certain it would
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  Speaker 4: not have launched this attack without a cent from Trump
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  Speaker 4: in a phone call last Monday and generally over these
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  Speaker 4: last months. So if Trump were to suddenly change, look
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  Speaker 4: at this point, it's hard to know because Israel's in
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  Speaker 4: the middle. By the way, if I don't know if
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  Speaker 4: you're hearing, but we are having an attack on the
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  Speaker 4: Tel Aviv area right now with Iranian missiles I'm in
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  Speaker 4: my secure room with a steel door and a steel
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  Speaker 4: window and reinforced concrete, so I'm as safe as I
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  Speaker 4: can be, so I can keep talking to you. But
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  Speaker 4: people across central Israel are running to their bomb shelters.
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  Speaker 4: So yes, I think what Trump and the United States
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  Speaker 4: wanted very important to Israel. Absolutely, they've been coordinating very closely.
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  Speaker 2: So Ethan is there.
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  Speaker 5: I guess the next step might be, as you suggested,
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  Speaker 5: use of some military armaments to maybe deal a knockout
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  Speaker 5: blow to the Iranian nuclear facilities. Is there a sense
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  Speaker 5: that that is being discussed and if.
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  Speaker 4: There's no doubt, there's no doubt it's being discussed. There's
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  Speaker 4: no doubt that. Look, if you look at the Americans
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  Speaker 4: have moved the Ninnis carrier group to the from the
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  Speaker 4: Asia to the Mediterranean. That's the second carrier groups. It's
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  Speaker 4: also sending others. Its sent Thad anti air defense systems
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  Speaker 4: to Israel. It's moving stuff here in preparation for participating.
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  Speaker 4: That doesn't mean it will. And there's no question in
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  Speaker 4: my mind that the Trump administration is examining this possibility
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  Speaker 4: right now, and I don't know what it's going to decide,
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  Speaker 4: but we do know that the President left Canada, left
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  Speaker 4: banf early and said that he needs to deal with
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  Speaker 4: this issue, and he didn't sound like he was interested
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  Speaker 4: in some kind of deep negotiation.
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  Speaker 3: Right well, Ethan, thank you so much for joining us.
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  Speaker 3: Ethan broun Our, Bloomberg News Israel Bureau Chief, Stay safe,
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  Speaker 3: good luck, Our thoughts obviously with you as he reports
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  Speaker 3: during an attack that is something that is tremendously amazing
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  Speaker 3: and reporting in all of that, Ethan, we thank you
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  Speaker 3: very much for joining us on that. I will continue
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  Speaker 3: to follow those headlines as they continued to cross again.
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  Speaker 3: US President Donald Trump leaving the G seven meeting early
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  Speaker 3: in Canada to focus on this Israel Iran conflict, sitting
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  Speaker 3: that he wants a real end to the nuclear dispute
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  Speaker 3: dispute with Iran and just a ceasefire when no one
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  Speaker 3: really knows what that real end will be.
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  Speaker 3: Alex ti Al Longside faulse, we need this Bloomberg Intelligence Radio.
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  Speaker 3: right here in midtown manhatt And also check us out
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  Speaker 3: on YouTube as well as all your streaming device as
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  Speaker 3: you can check us out on Bloomberg Originals. All right, so,
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  Speaker 3: late last evening or afternoon, the Senate passed or the
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  Speaker 3: Senate Republicans laid out its own version of the tax bill.
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  Speaker 2: Joining us for more as hand made a trace.
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  Speaker 3: Managing partner and Director of Economic Policy at Beta Partners,
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  Speaker 3: Henrita for you, what was the biggest surprise.
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  Speaker 6: The biggest surprise to me had to be the Medicaid components.
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  Speaker 6: Some of this stuff we know is going to have
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  Speaker 6: to be negotiated for the next couple of weeks, if
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  Speaker 6: not month, at least a month from here.
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  Speaker 7: Given the disparity between the House and the Senate.
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  Speaker 6: But the Medicaid cuts really have a constituency of no one.
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  Speaker 6: I'm not sure exactly how they're planning to thread the
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  Speaker 6: needle just in the Senate, let alone the House with
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  Speaker 6: this package. They obviously are on a hunt for revenue.
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  Speaker 6: The tweaks that they made, I think based off our
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  Speaker 6: estimates which come from my colleague Spencer Pearlman suggests that
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  Speaker 6: we're looking at like two hundred billion dollars in additional
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  Speaker 6: revenue for medicaid.
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  Speaker 7: But I want to be clear, this cuts.
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  Speaker 6: Off thirty five percent of the entire state of Alaska's
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  Speaker 6: medicaid recipients. And that's not even the most recent analysis
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  Speaker 6: and accounting from CBO. So they're gonna have some serious
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  Speaker 6: problems with this piece. That really surprised me.
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  Speaker 5: So talk to us about is this. I guess the
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  Speaker 5: next date that we're all waiting for is kind of
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  Speaker 5: a July fourth. That's when the Senate wanted to get
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  Speaker 5: something done. Is that is that still on the table?
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  Speaker 4: You know?
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  Speaker 7: I just can't get my head around July fourth.
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  Speaker 6: I understand optically and emotionally, it sounds good, it's a
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  Speaker 6: feel good story to have this done by the fourth
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  Speaker 6: of July. But the only way that members of Congress
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  Speaker 6: operate and act is with a sword hanging over their heads,
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  Speaker 6: and that's the debt ceiling. So last week CBO actually
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  Speaker 6: pushed out the debt ceiling deadline to mid August to
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  Speaker 6: mid September. I think that's why you're seeing Ron Johnson,
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  Speaker 6: the Senator from Wisconsin, saying.
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  Speaker 7: You know we're going to be to go shooting this
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  Speaker 7: all the way through.
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  Speaker 6: August is because they don't have a hard and fast
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  Speaker 6: deadline until they need to hike the debt ceiling, at
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  Speaker 6: which point the debt ceiling will be what like forty
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  Speaker 6: two trillion dollars and get us through November.
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  Speaker 7: Of twenty twenty six. So they've got a long way
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  Speaker 7: to go.
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  Speaker 3: I think going to my world, and that's the energy world.
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  Speaker 3: I was really interested in how wind and solar got
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  Speaker 3: no relief in this. I can imagine I neither hydrogen.
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  Speaker 3: I can imagine that the alternative energy lobbyists were going
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  Speaker 3: hardcore for weeks in terms of the Senators. And I'm
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  Speaker 3: just wondering, like why, like why keep tax breaks for
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  Speaker 3: utilities and purchase power agreements for wind and solar but
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  Speaker 3: not for consumers?
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  Speaker 5: Right?
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  Speaker 7: And I think, Alex, you're really nailing my sentiment.
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  Speaker 6: Right now, I'm trying to talk with as many staffers
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  Speaker 6: as I can to understand why behind this package. The
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  Speaker 6: IRA tax credits are extremely popular in Republican states. Specifically,
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  Speaker 6: they seventy percent of the flow is going to those districts,
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  Speaker 6: so that is really important for a lot of Senators
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  Speaker 6: who are for reelection next cycle. I'd highlight Tom Tillis
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  Speaker 6: most particularly on this one. I think that the IRA
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  Speaker 6: tax components need to be adjusted from here. It's plane
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  Speaker 6: from the fact fact that the saltcap, for example, is
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  Speaker 6: not even addressed by this package.
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  Speaker 7: It's just kept at the ten K rate. That they're
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  Speaker 7: going to do more tweaks.
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  Speaker 6: So I'm expecting some pretty substantial changes to the IRA side,
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  Speaker 6: to the residential stuff.
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  Speaker 7: And when we knew some things were going to come out, like.
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  Speaker 6: The electric vehicles tax credit is standard operating procedure.
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  Speaker 7: We knew that was going to come out.
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  Speaker 6: And there's some understanding to get to your specific question
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  Speaker 6: that there's a duplicative component.
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  Speaker 7: To the residential and commercial building.
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  Speaker 6: Tax credits that already exist at the state level, so
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  Speaker 6: why does the federal government need to layer them on.
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  Speaker 6: So that's one piece, but really I can't bet the
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  Speaker 6: needle and get you the votes for this package right now.
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  Speaker 5: Universities kind of surprised to me. They came out a
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  Speaker 5: little bit of a winner here. Reduced excise tax on
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  Speaker 5: university endowments. That's a big one. Where did that come from?
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  Speaker 7: Yeah, that's a big one.
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  Speaker 6: There's actually a lot of really random stuff that is
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  Speaker 6: and is not in this build. The university piece obviously
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  Speaker 6: is very much an audits with the public projection that
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  Speaker 6: the administration is take towards universities, and I think that
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  Speaker 6: is pretty widely supported by Republican lawmakers and voters.
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  Speaker 7: Obviously, the Senators are indicated that maybe they're not all
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  Speaker 7: the way there yet.
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  Speaker 6: But there's other pieces that are not in this bill,
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  Speaker 6: Like there was a proposal to tax cruise lines that
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  Speaker 6: you'll maybe remember Commerce Secretary Lutnik came out in wholehearted
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  Speaker 6: support for.
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  Speaker 7: But again, you know, not to harp on Alaska.
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  Speaker 6: I don't know why I keep talking about them, but
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  Speaker 6: you know that would have been a hit to Alaska.
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  Speaker 6: So they chose not to use that component to generate revenue.
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  Speaker 6: But they did choose to cut the Medicaid stuff and
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  Speaker 6: kick I think the late assessment is sixteen million people
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  Speaker 6: off Medicaid. So there's a lot of confusing pieces here.
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  Speaker 6: I'm again, I'm really just trying to thread the needle
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  Speaker 6: to find the fifty one votes for this package right now,
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  Speaker 6: and I can't get to it.
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  Speaker 3: Okay, So then what happens? So you can't get the
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  Speaker 3: fifty one votes. We don't even know if the House
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  Speaker 3: Republicans are going to like what this bill is, So
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  Speaker 3: what happens now?
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  Speaker 6: Yeah, So you know, let's talk about maybe the underreported
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  Speaker 6: component here, which is the potential that this doesn't pan out.
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  Speaker 6: We still have thirty percent odds that they kick this
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  Speaker 6: into September. Excuse me into Senator Lindsay Graham is the
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  Speaker 6: chairman of the Budget Committee, and he's being really clear
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  Speaker 6: that Republicans have four bites at the apple and reconciliation,
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  Speaker 6: and he's entirely correct. They don't need to have this
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  Speaker 6: entire comprehensive package ready for prime time, especially with Israel
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  Speaker 6: lebron and the one hundred and seventy five billion dollars
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  Speaker 6: in this package that goes to large military preparedness, another
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  Speaker 6: one hundred and fifty billion that goes to immigration. There's
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  Speaker 6: a lot of ways for Republicans to operate for the
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  Speaker 6: next year and a half going into the midterms that
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  Speaker 6: doesn't have to be this.
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  Speaker 7: One big package.
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  Speaker 6: So I think there's going to be some renewed discussion,
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  Speaker 6: especially as we're talking about delays for forward progress, about
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  Speaker 6: maybe breaking this bill into pieces. The five trillion dollar
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  Speaker 6: debt ceiling hike alone loses you ran Paul's vote. So
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  Speaker 6: there had already been to conversations about cutting that back
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  Speaker 6: down to two and a half trillion and maybe passing
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  Speaker 6: these bills piecemeal.
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  Speaker 7: That is an option.
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  Speaker 6: It's a low odds prospect, but it's nothing to be
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  Speaker 6: mindful of as an investor.
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  Speaker 5: So just thirty seconds on that raising that tax ceiling
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  Speaker 5: by five trillion. I can't do that in my balance sheet.
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  Speaker 5: But does it seem to be a problem for the
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  Speaker 5: federal government.
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  Speaker 2: Uh?
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  Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean I wish I had that kind of checkbook.
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  Speaker 6: That'd be pretty fantastic. This is a absolute record by a
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  Speaker 6: magnitude that I can't even do the math on. I
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  Speaker 6: think the last time we increase the debt scented by
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  Speaker 6: a specific dollar figure, it was like one point two trillion,
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  Speaker 6: and that got us almost a year and a half
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  Speaker 6: worth of functionality. Now we're talking about a five trillion
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  Speaker 6: dollar hike, which by the way, is a trillion dollars
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  Speaker 6: more than the House.
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  Speaker 7: Is authorized, and it only gets us through the midterms.
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  Speaker 7: That's pretty exorbitant, and that really speaks to the sheer.
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  Speaker 6: Volume of deficit increases that's in this package.
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  Speaker 7: And it is also, you.
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  Speaker 6: Know, the most regressive and substantially underwater bill that has passed.
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  Speaker 6: It's a negative twenty nine percent approval. Right now, that's
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  Speaker 6: pretty rough.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, I think rough is like an understatement.
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  Speaker 5: I mean, I've been a citizen in this country for
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  Speaker 5: sixty one years. I have no idea how they do that.
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  Speaker 5: I mean, I guess you just it's just kicked the
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  Speaker 5: can down the road at the highest level. I guess, yeah.
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  Speaker 4: I know.
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  Speaker 2: Also, it's like a holy definition to like the whip,
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  Speaker 2: Like what are you whipping?
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  Speaker 6: Like?
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  Speaker 2: No one's going to be whipped? All right, Henrietta things lot,
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  Speaker 2: we really appreciate. Jump back on those phones. Let us
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  Speaker 2: know what you find out.
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: Henrita Trice, Managing partner and director of Economic Policy over
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: at Beta Partners.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: All right, let's get a look in on the markets.
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: Then what do you do when their headlines like this?
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: Shelby McFadden is investment analyst and Motley Full Asset Management
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: to discuss her outlook. How much risk Shelby do you
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: think you should have in the markets?
• 13:36
  Speaker 8: Well, I will start off with saying we are staying invested.
• 13:39
  Speaker 8: Right there are points and in certain portfolio where we
• 13:41
  Speaker 8: have a little bit more cash than we would like to.
• 13:44
  Speaker 8: And it's not because we're sort of taking that step
• 13:46
  Speaker 8: back approach and saying let's get out of this, we
• 13:48
  Speaker 8: don't want a part of it. It's more so that
• 13:49
  Speaker 8: we're seeing that some of these pullbacks along with the rallies,
• 13:52
  Speaker 8: are really broad based, and so the opportunity for buying
• 13:55
  Speaker 8: in terms of getting in at a price that would
• 13:58
  Speaker 8: favor us in terms of that long term return, it's
• 14:00
  Speaker 8: not showing up as in a way that we would like, right.
• 14:03
  Speaker 8: So where there are higher cash balances is because we're
• 14:05
  Speaker 8: sort of waiting for those fair valuation opportunities, but going
• 14:09
  Speaker 8: ahead and staying invested because we can't control these sort
• 14:12
  Speaker 8: of big market shocks, right, and it is a bit uncomfortable.
• 14:15
  Speaker 8: It is something that requires a very long term orientation
• 14:19
  Speaker 8: in order to sort of suffer through it. But it's
• 14:22
  Speaker 8: not putting us on the sidelines of anything, We're much
• 14:26
  Speaker 8: more active. We're spending a lot more time filling up
• 14:29
  Speaker 8: the universe, even when the price opportunity doesn't necessarily present itself,
• 14:33
  Speaker 8: and just adjusting according to that sort of geopolitical risk
• 14:36
  Speaker 8: as necessary.
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: Are there certain sectors that screen well for you guys?
• 14:40
  Speaker 5: A lot of folks we're saying ahead now I have
• 14:42
  Speaker 5: an opportunity to buy the mag seven when they sold off.
• 14:45
  Speaker 7: Earlier in the year.
• 14:46
  Speaker 5: What sector screen well for you guys?
• 14:48
  Speaker 8: I think right now we have surprisingly actually taken a
• 14:51
  Speaker 8: closer look at certain financials, and in terms of some
• 14:55
  Speaker 8: of our core and income oriented strategies, trying to get
• 14:58
  Speaker 8: a better look at certain consumer stable companies that are
• 15:01
  Speaker 8: just good at what they do and have been overlooked
• 15:04
  Speaker 8: and sort of punished for where we are in the cycle.
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: In terms of tech.
• 15:09
  Speaker 8: We've taken another We've taken a look at Service Now,
• 15:11
  Speaker 8: which has remained a bit expensive, but they're very mature
• 15:15
  Speaker 8: in their space. They have high quality leadership, great retention,
• 15:18
  Speaker 8: fantastic cross selling opportunity, and if the runway for agentic
• 15:22
  Speaker 8: ai has been pulled forward the way we think it has,
• 15:24
  Speaker 8: it's a great opportunity. If we sort of see any
• 15:27
  Speaker 8: sort of market dip that allows us to enter that
• 15:29
  Speaker 8: position sooner.
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: Now, you were stalwarts of say Costco and Walmart, and
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: I'm assuming you still are. But if I'm max on
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: that position, what do I do?
• 15:37
  Speaker 8: You max out on Costco and Walmart and you're already
• 15:39
  Speaker 8: maxed out on MasterCard, you can do what we've been
• 15:42
  Speaker 8: trying to do. You can go ahead and play that
• 15:43
  Speaker 8: cow position that we've seen coming up this the past
• 15:46
  Speaker 8: week or so, which has been Costco, O'Reilly Autoparts, and Walmart.
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: So we got, yeah, I do coin Cow. I did
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: not coin Cow, and I.
• 15:52
  Speaker 8: Was devastated that I didn't see it's a Costco, Costco,
• 15:55
  Speaker 8: O'Reilly Auto Parts and then Walmart. So O'Reilly had been
• 15:58
  Speaker 8: something that we were looking at because when you think
• 16:00
  Speaker 8: about it, and this has been something that's been ongoing
• 16:02
  Speaker 8: since we had a lot of that inflation and autos
• 16:04
  Speaker 8: in twenty two to twenty three.
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: People were fixing their cars.
• 16:07
  Speaker 8: Right now, when we look at that savings being depleted,
• 16:10
  Speaker 8: people are doing that again. And then you add on
• 16:12
  Speaker 8: top of savings depletion, student loan resumption, and tariffs. You're
• 16:16
  Speaker 8: definitely choosing to fix your car. If you can, right,
• 16:18
  Speaker 8: and so that has been something that has been periodically
• 16:20
  Speaker 8: a little bit more expensive, but very much staple oriented,
• 16:25
  Speaker 8: similar to how people are fixing their homes instead of
• 16:27
  Speaker 8: trying to sell in buying new ones. So if you
• 16:29
  Speaker 8: can't get into some of those staples already, and you're
• 16:32
  Speaker 8: still not able to get into the toll takers MasterCard,
• 16:35
  Speaker 8: you could wait for something like an O'Reilly to pop up,
• 16:37
  Speaker 8: or you could look in some of those other consumer
• 16:39
  Speaker 8: staples that are more in sort of the health and
• 16:42
  Speaker 8: beauty sort of space. Can View is a great option
• 16:45
  Speaker 8: for that. We've seen that white label has not penetrated
• 16:48
  Speaker 8: that sort of consumer health space the way that we
• 16:50
  Speaker 8: would expect it too. It's kind of hanging out, kind
• 16:52
  Speaker 8: of flat.
• 16:53
  Speaker 5: The average age of US cars and light trucks twelve
• 16:57
  Speaker 5: point six years. I'm looking at John Tucker when I say.
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: This, Well, have you looked under the hood of your car?
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, there's nothing in there.
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: I recognize that I used to be able to change
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: out a carburetor, fire.
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: YouTube videos for that.
• 17:10
  Speaker 5: Well, it's basically my new car, a twenty twenty four vehicle,
• 17:14
  Speaker 5: is I've been saying, it's basically my iPhone it's an
• 17:19
  Speaker 5: iPhone with four wheels, That's what it is. It is
• 17:22
  Speaker 5: it's crazy. Is the FED going to help us out
• 17:25
  Speaker 5: this year? Or should we not rely on that?
• 17:28
  Speaker 7: They could help us out this year?
• 17:30
  Speaker 8: But I wouldn't expect it to be until the end
• 17:32
  Speaker 8: of the year, and as a result, I would not
• 17:35
  Speaker 8: rely on it. I've coined in my team this is
• 17:38
  Speaker 8: something I have coined frozen fed summer. I think that's
• 17:41
  Speaker 8: what we're going to see because there's so much murkiness
• 17:44
  Speaker 8: in the data. Right we're about to enter a period
• 17:47
  Speaker 8: where there's not going to be too.
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: Too much promo shopping. We will have a little bit of.
• 17:52
  Speaker 8: Promo in July fourth, but a lot of the vacations
• 17:54
  Speaker 8: have been booked right once we start to get into August,
• 17:57
  Speaker 8: it gets a little bit more promo activity for back
• 17:59
  Speaker 8: to So there's a short window for June and July
• 18:02
  Speaker 8: where we can probably have a look at the data
• 18:04
  Speaker 8: and say, are people still spending? Is kind of just
• 18:07
  Speaker 8: the weather? What are we going to get here? And
• 18:10
  Speaker 8: so that'll help us out a little bit. But shortly
• 18:12
  Speaker 8: after that we'll have murky data again from promo from
• 18:15
  Speaker 8: Labor Day and then all of a sudden, it'll be
• 18:16
  Speaker 8: promo from Christmas.
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: So I'm not sure the Fed's going to.
• 18:19
  Speaker 8: Have a great idea what we're looking at. Unless there's
• 18:21
  Speaker 8: a really huge swing in employment in a negative direction.
• 18:24
  Speaker 8: I would probably bet that employment would push them faster
• 18:28
  Speaker 8: than just sort of retail and NCPI data.
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: How do you guys look at the international trade? Right
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: Bank of America pum manager survey came out today and
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: said that fifty four percent of respond and think the
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: international trade is like the place to be in the
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: next twelve months.
• 18:42
  Speaker 8: We have on our team. That's something we started looking
• 18:44
  Speaker 8: at a couple of months ago. We were I don't
• 18:46
  Speaker 8: want to say early movers, but we were early believers
• 18:49
  Speaker 8: in the international trade, and especially in Europe. Now Europe
• 18:51
  Speaker 8: had gotten beat up for a long time, but it's
• 18:53
  Speaker 8: a place that we decided to just stay the course.
• 18:55
  Speaker 8: And that is part of what comes with active but
• 18:57
  Speaker 8: also concentrated portfolios, where you're going out head and saying,
• 19:00
  Speaker 8: let's hand pick twenty thirty spots and this is where
• 19:02
  Speaker 8: we're going to position ourselves. So thankfully we're not having
• 19:05
  Speaker 8: to time the market there, but we have decided to
• 19:08
  Speaker 8: take a step and say, okay, Is it European discretionary,
• 19:11
  Speaker 8: is it euromp in financials? Is it European defense? Right?
• 19:14
  Speaker 8: Where do we need to go ahead and take more
• 19:16
  Speaker 8: time and be more interested in just building up that universe.
• 19:18
  Speaker 8: So the short answer to that question is yes, we're
• 19:20
  Speaker 8: definitely taking a look because especially between France and Germany,
• 19:23
  Speaker 8: we know that there's going to be more spending there,
• 19:25
  Speaker 8: not just defense, but in general the world savers are
• 19:27
  Speaker 8: about to spend a bit more money. So how can
• 19:29
  Speaker 8: we go ahead and orient ourselves. We have strong positions
• 19:32
  Speaker 8: in companies like Icon, which is in pharmaceuticals, Nintendo which
• 19:36
  Speaker 8: we don't have to pbscribe Nintendo, right, that's just a
• 19:38
  Speaker 8: strong operator. But we also have positions and these are
• 19:41
  Speaker 8: in our model portfolios, companies like a Simrise where we're
• 19:44
  Speaker 8: talking about different additives for sense and products like that.
• 19:48
  Speaker 8: So being in that space already sort of gives us
• 19:50
  Speaker 8: an advantage when that market kind of comes in the upswing.
• 19:53
  Speaker 5: One of the name here, I want to get to
• 19:54
  Speaker 5: United Parcel Service. Yeah, the folks in Brown what's going
• 19:58
  Speaker 5: on there?
• 20:00
  Speaker 8: That's always been one of my favorite positions. It's something
• 20:02
  Speaker 8: I've covered ever since I've been in Motley Full asset management,
• 20:05
  Speaker 8: and it's because they have a fantastic operator, Carol Toomey
• 20:08
  Speaker 8: is a force of nature. They've gotten beat up over
• 20:10
  Speaker 8: the past year or so because of the labor negotiations.
• 20:13
  Speaker 8: I think a lot of investors thought they were going
• 20:15
  Speaker 8: to come out with a bit more of an upperhand
• 20:16
  Speaker 8: than they did, but they've already faced a lot of
• 20:18
  Speaker 8: those costs on the upfront.
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: What they've gone ahead and done is shedded.
• 20:21
  Speaker 8: Business that's not profitable for them, and so that business
• 20:23
  Speaker 8: is now going to absolutely dilute pricing in the market,
• 20:26
  Speaker 8: and they've taken themselves out of it. So when we
• 20:28
  Speaker 8: come out on the other side of this business cycle,
• 20:31
  Speaker 8: we feel very comfortable with our position in ups because
• 20:35
  Speaker 8: people find ways to buy things. When we look at
• 20:37
  Speaker 8: the overall financing nature of just consumption at this point,
• 20:41
  Speaker 8: we know that there's going to continue to be movement
• 20:43
  Speaker 8: of goods, and so finding that position where they're also
• 20:46
  Speaker 8: a solid yielder and pretty high shareholder return, we're more
• 20:51
  Speaker 8: than happy to be there.
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: Great stuff. Shelby always loved chatting with you, so fun.
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: Shelby mcfadd an investment analyst and Motley full asset Management.
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: I'm so upset you didn't quit cloud and come can no.
• 21:02
  Speaker 8: And it's just I think the journalist, who did I
• 21:05
  Speaker 8: want to meet that person?
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah? Because what a line? What a line?
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: Yeah? They need to get into marketing, all right, Shelby,
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: Thanks lot, always wonderful to get your perspective.
• 21:14
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