Thinking Traps 4/8: 93% Said They Drive Better Than Average. Half of Them Can't (Overconfidence)

Tales of Life: Ordinary People, Extraordinary True Stories · Nov 1, 2026 · 5m

Thinking Traps, lesson 3 of 7: overconfidence. In a 1981 study, 93% of the American students asked put themselves in the top half of drivers for skill. Only half of any group can be in the top half. You'll learn the three kinds of overconfidence (thinking we're better, thinking we're better than others, and being too sure of our answers), why students finish their thesis weeks later than they predict, why it isn't all bad, and three simple tools: wider ranges, keeping score, and asking what would make you wrong.

Chapters:

(00:00) Better than average?(01:15) Three kinds

(00:49) Teachers too…