Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / China Reversing Bitcoin Ban?

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China Reversing Bitcoin Ban? · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:07
Two big topics today and of course one of them is going to be China
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and they're ban on bitcoin and crypto in general, and whether or not that
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is shifting. Also the week ahead in terms of a lot of macro news
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and indicators, they could really push bitcoin and many of the crypto markets much
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hire. My name is Small Barren. Welcome back in a tech path.
0:26
We'll break it all down for you today and get into all this good stuff
0:30
because there is some good news out there, I think, and for general
0:34
maybe a lot of optimistic scenarios that could be starting to form, So stay
0:38
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does help the channel. All right, let's go into a few points here.
1:26
I want to start off with the week ahead, because there's a few
1:29
things that are pretty significant on this week right here. In videos ten for
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one, that's a big deal, I think because as goes in video and
1:38
AI kind of goes the S and P five hundred, and that of course
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has a lot of implications for crypto in general. WWDC event is happening right
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now. So far, I haven't seen anything major, even though I am
1:49
watching the feed on that. We're going to drop a video a little bit
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more about that today because of the impact on what Apple, Meta and all
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those companies are really going to have on crypto gaming, So make sure and
2:00
check that out. We got CPI inflation, which I think is the biggest
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situation, so Wednesday, we'll be doing a pretty big video on CPI inflation.
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How it's going to come in how this starts to push into because remember
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almost well I we'll say almost all, but a lot of the European central
2:17
banks have started to drop their interest rates and we are starting c rate reductions
2:23
around the globe. So could the Fed actually join the crew here, I
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don't know. We'll see Fed policy decision on Wednesday. Also we'll see the
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dot plot come in Palas press conference. We'll see that of course, and
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show that this week, and then jobless claims are on Thursday. This is
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going to be interesting. It's only the initial ones, so that's one thing
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to be a look at it. And then of course Tesla. All of
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that can have a little bit of implication because we still have the situation with
2:51
Elon and his pay that hasn't been done. So we'll see. All right,
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So a couple of news points right here by bit welcoming Chinese users,
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sparking hopes that maybe there is a little bit of a U turn on this
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ban, and if that were to happen, this could be pretty significant.
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Just example here, this was crypto trading and mining. This was all done
3:10
in twenty twenty one. Everybody remembers that because that many people would still say
3:15
that was what caused the last bull run to prematurely end. We'll see.
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Now when you see some of the stats on this, you might agree with
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that the knock on effects saw fifty six percent draw down on the bitcoin price
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over ten weeks. That that's what happened. By Bit seemingly opened up the
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account registration for users located in mainland China. So what do they know and
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is there something changing? That's the big question. There's no official confirmation from
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Beijing just yet. But if you look at the rest of the world and
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where profitability is coming from, well you kind of pay attention. Now,
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this was a scenario that plays into this. Right here, China's cryptocurrency investors
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made gains of about a billion dollars in twenty twenty three. All right,
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and think about this right here, Mayland right here achieved billion a little over
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a billion in twenty three, ranked fourth behind those in the US, the
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UK, and Vietnam. That's how much they made so and they're ranked four
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and they're not even allowed to do it. So that's that's significant for a
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country like China to be in the top four of something that's not legal for
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them to do. So pretty cool, Pretty cool. Here's a point right
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here. Remember this tweet. This just shows you the tenacity of this market.
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This was August second last year, all right, and crypto's illegal in
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China. Finance does ninety billion of business there. Finances, China business generated
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ninety billion in trades, trades occurred despite the official ban, all of that
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happening, and then one point one five billion in profits. So pretty significant.
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I think if this were to get lifted, if we saw something that
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could play into that, what kind of impact would that have? Let me
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know, drop some some notes down in the comments. I'd love to get
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some of that. We'll try to get to some question let me see if
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they've got the VMIC social up here. It looks like they do, so
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we'll try to get to some questions today and cover some of that. Of
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course, let me know your thoughts on how this might play out for potentially
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crypto in general. Here's the COBEC letter coming into a couple of things that
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get into a lot of the macro pressures that continue to face the US.
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Still a lot of positives I think, you know, from a political landscape,
5:31
a regulatory landscape, but I think also maybe finally a little bit of
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pressure off of the American consumer. It's not off yet completely. It's not
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as though we're going to see a pivot, but I do think there's a
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little bit of pressure off. The average interest rate on thirty four trillion in
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US is now three point two highest since twenty ten. Got to lower that
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rate. Five point nine trill of the national debt right now in treasury bills
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average interest rate of five point four percent. This is just mind boggling.
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Meanwhile, record nine point three trillion of national debt is going into mature in
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the next twelve months. This is a problem. I think that we will
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continue to see FIAT devaluation. This is something that will continue to see as
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a problem. Even the FED cuts by one to two times this year,
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the debt will have to be refinanced at more higher rates than what it was
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at, even if they cut twice this year, because there's not enough.
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Remember, a lot of that debt was acquired when rates are much lower.
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So now we've got refinance issues dealing in within the average interest rate right there
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on the treasury debt right there is where we're starting to just spike right there.
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This is not good. This is not good. I want to go
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to a clip. Now, this clip gets into a little bit around what
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are the potentials around if we could get one rate cut or will there be
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a rate cut at all? Take a look. Jobs number threw things into
6:53
a little bit of chaos last week. It makes people kind of question and
6:56
wonder where we're standing. How do you feel about things? Yeah? I
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mean that two hundred and seventy two thousand non finarm payrolls on Friday. That
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was a pretty big number. People definitely weren't expecting something that strong, but
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it definitely is probably a pretty good indicator that the economy is doing a lot
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better than people were thinking and therefore, as a result, that means great
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news because the markets are going to continue to climb. Or is it a
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concern that the market is less likely to get that FED put kind of things
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where you see a rate cut come from here. I don't see a FED
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rate cut coming from here. I think you look at the CPI numbers,
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they're just too strong. You look at the unemployment numbers, But does they're
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too strong if we don't get the cut, is it better to just have
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a good economy where things are continuing to hamm along, hum along or has
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the market been anticipating that there has to be a cut this year? I
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think the market got that reaction Friday, and I don't think you really need
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the cut that people were anticipating anymore for the market to be able to hold
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up and do well. It's probably not going to be a rip roaring market,
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but it can be healthy. You said the market doesn't need a cut.
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You mean in June or do you mean in twenty twenty four? I
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think even without a cut in twenty twenty four, even though it will,
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there not be a cut in twenty twenty four, I don't think there should
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be. If I were running the FED, it wouldn't be my decision.
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I don't get how you get to two percent inflation number if you're running over
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three? Now do you think there will be? But you don't think there
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should be. I think more likely than not there will not be. There
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will not be. You think there's no cut in this counter years? You
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down here? So I think it's fifty to fifty as to whether the FED
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DUTs does it. But I don't think it would be a smart move.
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I think you're gonna let inflation run hot if you do that. All right,
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So he's struggling with that no cut for twenty four. You know,
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it's one of those things I still kind of apply to that. I still
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think it might be one cut, that only because I think jobs will eventually
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start to move into a position that might get a little dicey for the Fed.
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Plus if we continue to see a little bit of adjustment on inflation,
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remember we still have a lot yet to do over the summer months, that
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could be a still late Q three, early Q four possible in terms of
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a cut. This is US consumer inflation expectations actual is three point one seven
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versus the three three in the previous This is not a lot, you know,
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from a sense of a quick move downward. But remember it is slowly
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treading toward Powell's potential nirvana of two percent. Does he ever see two percent
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again? That's the real question. I think a lot of analysts still believe
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that's not necessarily going to be the case. If you look at trueflation,
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which I think is maybe the route to take here, You've got two point
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one seven right now on trueflation actual. When you look at how that plays
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in comparison to some of the other CPI data that we get in other things
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to look at. Bitcoin price settle at a sixty nine k after a dip
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wipes out almost one point three billion in open interest. This, of course,
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we saw play out on Friday with a big red day. Market started
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recorrect. Over the w weekend, we did see movements up and now we're
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starting to see that back in. If you look at the chart right here,
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we saw this slight dip right there. It's very interesting this was painted
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out if you go back to our other videos. This is our sentiment track
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right now. So it's still holding in zone right now. Ironic that that
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was the day we anticipated a little bit of a dip there, but it
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is holding here, holding around seventy thousand today. We're kind of in and
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out of that seventy thousand range. If we start to break past this,
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I think this is going to be a catalyst where we could see some pretty
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big up to upside for bigcoin overall. I want to go over to a
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couple other news stories here. Was there something in here I wanted to showcase.
10:39
Yeah, a couple of points here. Largest cryptocurrency endured. That was
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the volatility we saw. This was based on Wall Street Open thanks to what
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we kind of saw as the employment data. This was then compounded by a
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route in all coins. Many people saw that this, of course was maybe
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in reaction to what happened on Friday with Rowan Kitty. That was just a
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little bit of a train direct. Even though it's very odd the impact that
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he has on the market me people thought, well, the ruined Kitty event
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showed something less about what he's doing, but more about what the market is
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doing. Over six hundred thousand people watch that live stream. What does that
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tell you? There's an appetite for memes. There's an appetite for these kinds
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of movements and investment opportunity. And why is that Well, because most of
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these are in it at best, you know, kind of a gambling play.
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And when you look at the valuation of today's dollar versus what you're getting
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in terms of inflation, people are trying to figure that hedge out. And
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for six hundred thousand people, that's the thing I think that scares Wall Street
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more so than anything. For sure, it was confusing enough to trigger a
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risk off ahead of the US inflation numbers. And this of course comes in
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on Wednesday. Probably not a coincidence that Alton Memes started collapsing with about forty
11:56
billion wiped out in market cap. This all happened last fear. So let's
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go. We got a couple of questions in make sure and drop them in
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over on the side, we'll try to get to a couple of those Bitcoin
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ETFs take in two billion now in just seven days of trading. That's crazy,
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two billion seven days on these ETFs continuing to fly. Bitcoin versus Buffett,
12:18
this of course meaning probably I would say, one of the best investors
12:20
of our time, and you kind of look at what their total growth was
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versus the steady growth portfolio, and the comparison is right there. Warren Buffett's
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portfolio obtained around a ten point three percent zero three percent, with about a
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thirteen point six to seven per standard deviation in the last thirty years. Thirty
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years. That bad, not bad, really, I mean think about that
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versus what we've seen in terms of growth on bitcoins. So since then trading
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debuted twenty eleven, bitcoin has delivered a staggering annual return of about one hundred
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and four percent. So if you're playing that game versus what we've seen in
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the stockame, well, I guess you're in pretty good shape. But remember
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it's time. It's time in the market. On timing the market, So
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a big one, some good questions coming in. I'll try to get to
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some of those, make sure and drop some over there. Here's a big
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one, of course. This is mister Trump himself calling himself a crypto president.
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And this was at a tech fundraiser, And one of the notes that
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I remember coming in on this was the amount of fundraising that they were doing
13:28
in Silicon Valley and the fact that these were a lot of new people that
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were contributing. So when you have new people coming into that, especially in
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Silicon Valley, that has a bit of a dynamic shift that I think a
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lot of people have not been anticipating. Here is a clip that goes a
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little bit further into this, because this is Biden versus Trump economics. Take
13:52
a look if Trump were to regain the presidency, former President Trump, what
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are some of the planks of his plan. I'm seeing something about even further
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cuts for corporate taxes. Is that really being considered? Hey, Joe,
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good to be with you, and good to be with Jason as well.
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Look, I think there's no question the top priority will be to make sure
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that those tax cuts that are Laffer and I and Lyarc Cudlow and others helped
14:22
put together for Trump, and you know we did it. There was a
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lot of controversy about whether it would work, and you know, clearly it
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did. We had a boom and investment. Jason, do you I think
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I asked you about the capital gains increase and you really weren't that anti capital
14:39
gains that that President Biden was talking about? And what about the taxing unrealized
14:46
gains? Both of those to many people, those are both sort of anathema
14:52
to any normal economic thinking. Do you are you? You go along with
14:58
both those ideas? I mean, they're both way better than any of the
15:03
tariffs that we've just been talking about. You know, but there's a lot
15:07
of economic logic to taxing unrealized gains right now. One of the problems with
15:11
the capital gain system is that it locks in your gains. It dissuades you
15:16
from selling because you want to hold until later when you get a lower rate.
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That is a proposal that applies to a relatively small slice of people.
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You know, we could argue what the right rate of taxing capital income is,
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and I'm open to a variety of things. In fact, I'd like
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to reform the tax code so we had permanent expensing and got rid of the
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interest deduction, more incentives for business investment going forward. But you know we're
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going to need to raise revenue somehow. Well okay, well, that'd be
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an interesting way to do it is to tax unrealized gains. Think about the
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four to one k's real estate and I mean this could go. I mean,
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once you get on that slippery slope, who knows what be happening.
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Don't forget too what we're dealing with here between Biden and Trump. It's really
16:07
about trying to figure out how do you get those votes swinging through. Trump
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has even gone to the extent of talking about removing taxes on tips. This
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would affect a huge economy because you got the gig economy out there, not
16:19
even won't go and the online side of tips. But you also have the
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hospitality industry that's about fifteen million people employed. Then you have the gig economy
16:29
itself that's probably another nine million that are out there. So you're starting to
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pile up potential voters. Even with these hints that you're doing this. Remember
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he's still hinting that he's a crypto president. So I don't know. This
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is still an intriguing situation overall. Don't forget too. We've got another clip
16:48
here that talks about what would happen in terms of how some of these agency
16:55
heads would fare under Trump. One of them would be, of course,
16:59
your own pal. Take a look for a typical family. You're talking an
17:03
extra seventeen hundred dollars of costs, and then you add that to the other
17:08
inflationary parts of the agenda. You have advisors to President Trump saying that he
17:14
would fire j. Powell within the first hundred days. That would set up
17:18
a massive, massive amount of uncertainty, court cases and the like. Let's
17:26
say he doesn't fire him in the first hundred days, but he just tweets
17:29
at him saying that he's worse enemy than President she which is what he did
17:33
the last time he was president. One of the things that President Biden has
17:37
done that I really respect has been to respect and strengthen on the independence of
17:44
the FED, even while it was raising rates really rapidly. What happens if
17:48
that comes to an end? So I think there's a lot of peril here,
17:52
a lot of it can be expressed, especially in terms of inflation and
17:57
tax increases on middle class family. All right, Well, I don't like
18:02
the idea of tax increases in middle class families. That's going to be one
18:04
of the least areas because that's one of the most taxed categories right now.
18:10
I think it's probably going to come from the billionaires if we do see it.
18:11
Granted, a lot of people would argue that Trump kind of goes in
18:15
that direction. Don't want to get in political scenario, but he does lean
18:18
toward corporate tax cuts and taxes for the wealthy, So there are tax cuts
18:23
for the wealthy. So there are scenarios on both sides of it, but
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it all boils down to this at the end of the day. And that
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is really what you guys are looking for, and that is the freedom to
18:33
go out there and do investments and things like that so that you yourself can
18:36
kind of manage your own future. And that's the problem that a lot of
18:40
times big government gets in the way of. So that's a big deal.
18:42
We're going to go over to the poll. Do we have a poll today.
18:45
Yeah, let's take a look at the pole real quick, all right,
18:48
And when will the China unban. People are saying maybe in twenty twenty
18:52
four, interesting time here, So because there's some intriguing that's that's a pretty
18:57
good number. Two fifty nine percent over twenty twenty five. Think about that
19:03
too, timing wise, because you get a lot happening from a geopolitical situation,
19:08
you get a lot happening from rates now being adjusted and some economies coming
19:14
out of what has been very challenging at times. We think about the EU
19:19
and you look at China and the opportunity here at timing wise with what they're
19:25
trying to do. Just very interesting how this could be doing because you still
19:29
have the scenario of bricks and what's happening there. All that ties into I
19:33
think a more strategic look ahead. So China could be looking at that and
19:37
saying, hey, we're going to open this up a bit. That'll be
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a big one for sure. A few questions in over on the side it
19:44
says no tax on tips would make such a difference to small income in divisions,
19:47
no doubt about it. That's probably one of the biggest point. Listen,
19:51
It's been fought around for quite some time. But if you think about
19:55
the hospitality industry. It's fifteen million employed, so let's say there was probably
20:00
at least half or more of that that are in tipped positions. So that's
20:03
a pretty significant vote swing. If you could even get you know, ten
20:07
percent, that's still another million to two million votes that you could probably start
20:11
to secure. So that would be huge. Nasim says, if Trump wasn't
20:15
a liar about everything, that we might believe something. He says, I
20:19
think everybody has have you met a politician yet in the United States? China
20:26
needs to be a front run the East with the band left. That would
20:29
be huge. Like I said, Drue, if they do it, it
20:32
would be significant, and it also could set the tone for blockchain to become
20:38
a baseline for them. And if that does happen. To remember, they're
20:41
looking for an alternative alternative to the FIAT system, the dollar, the American
20:47
dollar, you know. So and with the pressure they're putting into bricks,
20:51
very interesting. Paul short term pullback on render. Yes, heard some news
20:55
was coming out from Apple. I haven't heard it yet. I don't think
20:59
I would probably hear from the crypto pit if we had something big from WWWDDC,
21:03
but nothing yet. Still, if you think about render its future I
21:07
think is still very very positive. Again, not investment advice, but just
21:11
you know, we look at the tack the opportunities of those kind of projects
21:15
and they're big. XRP is going to rule the world, man, I'm
21:19
telling you. I hear more and more stuff that is very bullish on XRP.
21:25
We had the guy in last week that Aaron McDonald, And when you
21:30
think about future Verse and the tie to root network, then the tie to
21:34
real world assets, a stable coin, there's just a lot of things happening
21:38
over there. Truth is, fifty nine percent of people want you on it
21:42
to unbat Yeah for sure. Is that still going? Is the pole still
21:47
going? I'm kind of curious if it changed up much. What was the
21:51
number now? Did it go over sixty? Yeah? Fifty eight? Okay,
21:53
all right, well there you go. Bitcoin banning band or all prefer
21:59
work in general. Conflux, well, yeah, Conflex was actually launched.
22:03
I think after that. I don't believe that one is because we've reported on
22:07
conflicts before. Was actually a mover at some point, but that was a
22:11
huge deal timing wise, I still believe. Yes, it did thwart the
22:15
bull run for bitcoin. I'm assuming you mean our fk RK Junior is okay
22:26
royin Kitty, Yes, roying kitty. Yes, I'm thinking politics here.
22:30
Yes, Well did he act like an idiot? Or is this guy just
22:33
you know, crazy like a fox? You never know about this. I
22:36
mean, like I said, six hundred thousand people watching this guy. That's
22:41
no joke right there, that's no joke. One more China ban Bitcoin That
22:47
would be the more China bands, bigcowner, the more people want it.
22:51
Yes and no, I still believe. You know, when you have a
22:55
billion opportunities for other people to get to it, you're opening up the opportunity.
23:00
I think for the globe, cut would be cut would be somewhat good.
23:04
Remember that this is something Darius Dale talks about often. It says,
23:07
when you see the pivot occur, expect the market to start its downturn.
23:12
In other words, that's the end of that bull run and cycle. So
23:15
it could be cycling out. So timing wise, if people say, well
23:19
we may not even see a cut this year, we could push this bull
23:22
run into quarter one or even two of next year, which some people are
23:26
still saying. That might be the actual in Phil says, Jasmine is going
23:30
to be on every Apple product next spring. That will be interesting. China
23:34
is more likely to keep the ban in place given permission under their credit score.
23:41
That's a problem, Yes, I agree, but I think they have
23:44
a bigger reason, and that is the ability to drive digital asset values globally.
23:52
And you think about that and what it can do to the alternative ecosystem
23:57
of the reserve current, and you know, it's kind of like little pecks,
24:03
because that's how you take down societies. Remember, those are the big
24:06
deals. All right. If you guys are not part of the Diamond Circle,
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make sure and get in. We have a lot announcing this week that
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I think you guys are going to love. And one of the big things
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that we've got this week is a new air drop program that we're doing for
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our Diamond Circle members, our Mastermind members and our MSI members, people who
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get the market sentiment at X, so be on the lookout for that.
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We will be explaining more about that as we go this week. Very easy,
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follow me on X It's just at Paul Baron. I'll catch you next
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