Latest / Heroes Behind the Badge / Rafael A. Mangual - Why Killers Walk While Cops Go to Prison | Part 1

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Rafael A. Mangual - Why Killers Walk While Cops Go to Prison | Part 1 · Heroes Behind the Badge

• 0:00
  Rafael A. Mangual His face just changed and he immediately
• 0:02
  Rafael A. Mangual started trying to talk me
• 0:04
  Rafael A. Mangual out of joining that profession.
• 0:05
  Rafael A. Mangual And one of the things that he would say
• 0:07
  Rafael A. Mangual is, give me these kinds of hypotheticals.
• 0:08
  Rafael A. Mangual What happens if you're in a fight with a
• 0:10
  Rafael A. Mangual perp and it looks bad on camera and now
• 0:12
  Rafael A. Mangual they crucify you on the
• 0:13
  Rafael A. Mangual front page in the New York Post.
• 0:15
  Rafael A. Mangual You're facing indictment, you're facing a
• 0:18
  Rafael A. Mangual civil suit, you lose out on a pension and
• 0:21
  Rafael A. Mangual you've got eight, 10, 11 years of
• 0:23
  Rafael A. Mangual experience doing something that doesn't
• 0:24
  Rafael A. Mangual translate into any other line of work.
• 0:27
  Rafael A. Mangual It's just not worth
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  Rafael A. Mangual the risk, he would say.
• 0:30
  (Upbeat Music)
• 0:38
  Paul Boomer Rafael Mangual took the
• 0:39
  Paul Boomer LSAT instead of the NYPD oath.
• 0:42
  Paul Boomer Years later, he's fighting the same
• 0:44
  Paul Boomer battle his father feared,
• 0:46
  Paul Boomer with data instead of a badge.
• 0:48
  Paul Boomer This is Heroes Behind the Badge.
• 0:50
  Dennis Collins I've been thinking about two interesting
• 0:54
  Dennis Collins headlines that occurred
• 0:55
  Dennis Collins both out of New York City.
• 0:57
  Dennis Collins One is a guy who calls
• 0:58
  Dennis Collins himself Lucifer of all things.
• 1:01
  Dennis Collins He slashed three elderly people in April
• 1:06
  Dennis Collins on the subway platform.
• 1:07
  Dennis Collins Grand Central Station, right?
• 1:08
  Dennis Collins Grand Central Station.
• 1:10
  Dennis Collins This dude had 13 prior arrests, including
• 1:13
  Dennis Collins another knife slashing
• 1:15
  Dennis Collins incident and he's free.
• 1:17
  Dennis Collins He's out there free, walking the streets,
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  Dennis Collins still causing mayhem.
• 1:20
  Dennis Collins And then another New York story.
• 1:23
  Dennis Collins NYPD Sergeant Eric Duran.
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  Dennis Collins He tried to stop a fleeing suspect during
• 1:31
  Dennis Collins a by bus drug operation.
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  Dennis Collins He threw a cooler at him.
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  Dennis Collins He was riding on a scooter,
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  Dennis Collins escaping, fleeing the scene.
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  Dennis Collins On the sidewalk.
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  Dennis Collins And he threw the cooler at him and he got
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  Dennis Collins hit with the cooler.
• 1:46
  Dennis Collins Unfortunately, he crashed
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  Dennis Collins his scooter and he died.
• 1:50
  Dennis Collins And now Sergeant Duran was
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  Dennis Collins just convicted of manslaughter.
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  Dennis Collins He's got three to nine years in prison.
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  Dennis Collins So Raphael, first of all, welcome to the
• 2:01
  Dennis Collins Heroes Behind the Badge podcast.
• 2:03
  Dennis Collins We're glad to have you.
• 2:05
  Dennis Collins How does a violent repeat offender get
• 2:07
  Dennis Collins chance after chance while a cop trying to
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  Dennis Collins end a dangerous situation goes to jail?
• 2:15
  Dennis Collins Is this criminal justice system really
• 2:16
  Dennis Collins protecting the public?
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  Dennis Collins Or are we just punishing the
• 2:20
  Dennis Collins people who try to protect it?
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  Dennis Collins Because right now it feels to me like the
• 2:25
  Dennis Collins violent repeat offenders are getting
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  Dennis Collins endless chances while the cops are trying
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  Dennis Collins to stop danger, who are trying to stop
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  Dennis Collins danger go to prison.
• 2:33
  Rafael A. Mangual What do you think, Raphael?
• 2:34
  Rafael A. Mangual What's going on?
• 2:35
  Rafael A. Mangual I think the way to understand this is to
• 2:37
  Rafael A. Mangual get in the heads of the people who are
• 2:38
  Rafael A. Mangual making decisions in cities like New York.
• 2:40
  Rafael A. Mangual What they believe is that the criminal
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  Rafael A. Mangual justice system is
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  Rafael A. Mangual operated by corrupt power.
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  Rafael A. Mangual Therefore, anyone on whom it comes down
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  Rafael A. Mangual needs to be saved from that exercise of
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  Rafael A. Mangual corrupt power, which is why they bend
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  Rafael A. Mangual over backwards to rig the system, to make
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  Rafael A. Mangual the courthouse a revolving door, to get
• 3:01
  Rafael A. Mangual people a second chance, a
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  Rafael A. Mangual third chance, a 10th chance.
• 3:04
  Rafael A. Mangual But there's always some story for why we
• 3:07
  Rafael A. Mangual should hope that they're gonna be
• 3:08
  Rafael A. Mangual rehabilitated this time.
• 3:10
  Rafael A. Mangual There's always some story for why they
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  Rafael A. Mangual need to be out on the
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  Rafael A. Mangual street instead of behind bars.
• 3:15
  Rafael A. Mangual But when it comes to the people who are
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  Rafael A. Mangual associated with that system of "corrupt
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  Rafael A. Mangual power," they deserve retribution.
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  Rafael A. Mangual So when someone like Eric Duran finally
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  Rafael A. Mangual comes before a judge, they cannot wait.
• 3:27
  Rafael A. Mangual They are chomping at the bit to give him
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  Rafael A. Mangual a taste of what they perceive him as
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  Rafael A. Mangual giving other people unjustly.
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  Rafael A. Mangual And so that's how you get
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  Rafael A. Mangual those two two separate outcomes.
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  Rafael A. Mangual I mean, the Eric Duran case is
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  Rafael A. Mangual interesting and tragic
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  Rafael A. Mangual for all sorts of reasons.
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  Rafael A. Mangual But one of the analogies I thought of,
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  Rafael A. Mangual it's like, okay, people try to stop
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  Rafael A. Mangual fleeing suspects all the
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  Rafael A. Mangual time in all manner of ways.
• 3:51
  Rafael A. Mangual Had this been in a car and they had
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  Rafael A. Mangual thrown a spike strip and
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  Rafael A. Mangual he lost control and died?
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  Rafael A. Mangual The same intent--
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  Rafael A. Mangual Different situation, yeah.
• 4:00
  Rafael A. Mangual So it's the same intent, right?
• 4:03
  Rafael A. Mangual The question that I was shocked didn't
• 4:07
  Rafael A. Mangual end up producing a different result is
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  Rafael A. Mangual that, shouldn't it matter whether the
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  Rafael A. Mangual tactic used had a real chance of causing
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  Rafael A. Mangual death in the minds of
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  Rafael A. Mangual a reasonable person?
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  Rafael A. Mangual I mean, who really thought that throwing
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  Rafael A. Mangual an empty court somebody's gonna end up
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  Rafael A. Mangual killing them, right?
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  Rafael A. Mangual Like, it's just kind of
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  Rafael A. Mangual obvious to me at that point.
• 4:28
  Craig Floyd And Rafael, I loved what the judge said,
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  Craig Floyd apparently when he
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  Craig Floyd handed down the sentence.
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  Craig Floyd He said, "Sgt Duran actually just angry,
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  Craig Floyd pissed off basically at this guy because
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  Craig Floyd he was escaping and he felt like he had
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  Craig Floyd to throw this cooler at him
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  Craig Floyd as if that wasn't appropriate.
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  Craig Floyd Just outrageous, I think.
• 4:51
  Bill Erfurth Gets released from jail from, countless
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  Bill Erfurth times should be in prison.
• 4:58
  Bill Erfurth And if he was in prison and the system
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  Bill Erfurth worked appropriately, you wouldn't even
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  Bill Erfurth have this encounter.
• 5:06
  Bill Erfurth And when you've got so many criminals
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  Bill Erfurth that have rap sheets
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  Bill Erfurth longer than most people's leg,
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  Bill Erfurth and they keep getting released and
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  Bill Erfurth released and released, and then you get a
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  Bill Erfurth police officer that is basically doing
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  Bill Erfurth his job, and a one-time incident, where
• 5:25
  Bill Erfurth is his second chance?
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  Bill Erfurth Where is his fifth chance?
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  Bill Erfurth Where is this double standard falling in
• 5:33
  Bill Erfurth our society between the
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  Bill Erfurth criminals and the cops?
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  Bill Erfurth And the ultimate issue here
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  Bill Erfurth is, who wants to be cops anymore?
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  Bill Erfurth If you're gonna be held to that kind of
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  Bill Erfurth responsibility and you're gonna be
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  Bill Erfurth crucified for your actions, I mean, you
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  Bill Erfurth must see it all the time.
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  Bill Erfurth So, Rafael, as a lawyer, you're working
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  Bill Erfurth at the Manhattan Institute,
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  Bill Erfurth you see this all the time.
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  Bill Erfurth I mean, what do you think about all that?
• 5:56
  Rafael A. Mangual I mean, it's frustrating, it's
• 5:58
  Rafael A. Mangual frustrating, because this is exactly the
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  Rafael A. Mangual kind of incident that was described to me
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  Rafael A. Mangual as a hypothetical by my former NYPD
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  Rafael A. Mangual father when he was trying his best to
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  Rafael A. Mangual talk me out of following his footsteps.
• 6:09
  Rafael A. Mangual I mean, when I was a senior in college, I
• 6:11
  Rafael A. Mangual took the LSAT and the NYPD exam in the
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  Rafael A. Mangual same week a few days apart, and you get a
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  Rafael A. Mangual list number when you take the NYPD exam,
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  Rafael A. Mangual and basically it tells you the order in
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  Rafael A. Mangual which you're gonna be hired for your test
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  Rafael A. Mangual cohort when it comes up based on your
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  Rafael A. Mangual performance on the test, and I was very
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  Rafael A. Mangual proud because my list number was one.
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  Rafael A. Mangual I'm not bragging, but
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  Rafael A. Mangual that was my list number.
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  Rafael A. Mangual My dad's list number was like 14,000 or
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  Rafael A. Mangual something like that when he took it.
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  Rafael A. Mangual So, I came home expecting that he would
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  Rafael A. Mangual be proud and excited, and I mean, his
• 6:40
  Rafael A. Mangual face just changed, and he immediately
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  Rafael A. Mangual started trying to talk me out of joining
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  Rafael A. Mangual that profession, and one of the things
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  Rafael A. Mangual that he would say is give me these kinds
• 6:48
  Rafael A. Mangual of hypotheticals, and what happens if
• 6:50
  Rafael A. Mangual you're in a fight with a perp, and it
• 6:51
  Rafael A. Mangual looks bad on camera, and now they crucify
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  Rafael A. Mangual you on the front page
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  Rafael A. Mangual in the New York Post.
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  Rafael A. Mangual You're facing indictment, you're facing a
• 6:58
  Rafael A. Mangual civil suit, you lose out on a pension,
• 7:01
  Rafael A. Mangual and you've got eight, 10, 11 years of
• 7:03
  Rafael A. Mangual experience doing something that doesn't
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  Rafael A. Mangual translate into any other line of work.
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  Rafael A. Mangual It's just not worth the risk, he would
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  Rafael A. Mangual say, and ultimately I decided to go to
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  Rafael A. Mangual law school, and I think a lot of people
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  Rafael A. Mangual make that choice, but what's frustrating
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  Rafael A. Mangual about the Duran sentence is you made the
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  Rafael A. Mangual exact right points, like
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  Rafael A. Mangual what about his second chance?
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  Rafael A. Mangual What about his third chance?
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  Rafael A. Mangual And I would argue that there's a better
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  Rafael A. Mangual reason to give someone like him a second
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  Rafael A. Mangual chance for the following rationale, which
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  Rafael A. Mangual is that there are four penological ends
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  Rafael A. Mangual that are served by criminal punishment.
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  Rafael A. Mangual You have retribution, right?
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  Rafael A. Mangual You want society's desire to condemn
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  Rafael A. Mangual abhorrent conduct to feel satiated.
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  Rafael A. Mangual I think in this case, most of society
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  Rafael A. Mangual agrees with what Eric Duran did, and
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  Rafael A. Mangual probably would have done it themselves
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  Rafael A. Mangual were they in that position.
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  Rafael A. Mangual So retribution is not a particularly
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  Rafael A. Mangual strong rationale in this case.
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  Rafael A. Mangual Number two is rehabilitation, the idea
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  Rafael A. Mangual being that if you have someone who has a
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  Rafael A. Mangual deep-seated antisocial disposition that
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  Rafael A. Mangual through criminal punishment, we can
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  Rafael A. Mangual coerce them into treatment
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  Rafael A. Mangual programs that might fix them.
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  Rafael A. Mangual One, those treatment programs almost
• 8:06
  Rafael A. Mangual never work and we can talk about that.
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  Rafael A. Mangual But number two, Eric Duran clearly does
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  Rafael A. Mangual not have a deeply
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  Rafael A. Mangual antisocial personality disorder.
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  Rafael A. Mangual If he did, we'd have seen that by now.
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  Rafael A. Mangual There's a man in his 40s,
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  Rafael A. Mangual he has no criminal history.
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  Rafael A. Mangual There's deterrence, right?
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  Rafael A. Mangual You want to deter people from
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  Rafael A. Mangual engaging in similar conduct.
• 8:25
  Rafael A. Mangual Well, here, that's
• 8:26
  Rafael A. Mangual definitely gonna work, right?
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  Rafael A. Mangual You will absolutely deter cops from being
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  Rafael A. Mangual zealous in their pursuit of fleeing
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  Rafael A. Mangual offenders, which has some serious
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  Rafael A. Mangual downside risk if you ask me.
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  Rafael A. Mangual So it's not clear at all that that
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  Rafael A. Mangual particular rationale for punishment works
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  Rafael A. Mangual out in the system's favor here.
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  Rafael A. Mangual But the most important thing that the
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  Rafael A. Mangual criminal justice system exists to do is
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  Rafael A. Mangual to incapacitate active offenders, people
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  Rafael A. Mangual who are gonna continue to offend if they
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  Rafael A. Mangual are not coerced into a cage.
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  Rafael A. Mangual And Eric Duran poses no ongoing risk.
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  Rafael A. Mangual He has no criminal history.
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  Rafael A. Mangual He has no cluster B
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  Rafael A. Mangual personality disorder diagnosis.
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  Rafael A. Mangual He has no substance use disorder.
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  Rafael A. Mangual He has none of the risk factors that tell
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  Rafael A. Mangual you that, hey, if we don't come down on
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  Rafael A. Mangual him now, other people are gonna die in
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  Rafael A. Mangual the future unnecessarily and unjustly.
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  Rafael A. Mangual And so if there's anyone that goes
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  Rafael A. Mangual through the New York City court system
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  Rafael A. Mangual who deserves a second chance, who
• 9:23
  Rafael A. Mangual deserves the kind of probation sentence
• 9:24
  Rafael A. Mangual that you see often handed down.
• 9:25
  Rafael A. Mangual I mean, just last week, my wife, who's a
• 9:28
  Rafael A. Mangual principal in the Bronx, had a former
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  Rafael A. Mangual student murdered just a couple blocks
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  Rafael A. Mangual from the school, not even a couple blocks
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  Rafael A. Mangual actually, down the
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  Rafael A. Mangual street from the school.
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  Rafael A. Mangual The guy who caught the charge is a
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  Rafael A. Mangual 22-year-old alleged gang member with an
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  Rafael A. Mangual open case for allegedly raping an
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  Rafael A. Mangual 11-year-old, I'm sorry.
• 9:49
  Rafael A. Mangual And this guy was out on an ankle monitor.
• 9:53
  Rafael A. Mangual With a child rape case, right?
• 9:55
  Rafael A. Mangual He was only 22, so I'm positive he's got
• 9:58
  Rafael A. Mangual sealed priors from his juvenile days.
• 10:01
  Rafael A. Mangual And yet that person, the system couldn't
• 10:04
  Rafael A. Mangual bring itself to put him
• 10:05
  Rafael A. Mangual in pretrial detention.
• 10:07
  Rafael A. Mangual When people see that level of disparity
• 10:11
  Rafael A. Mangual in terms of treatment of criminal
• 10:13
  Rafael A. Mangual defendants who have massively different
• 10:15
  Rafael A. Mangual risk profiles, I think it undermines the
• 10:18
  Rafael A. Mangual credibility of the justice system in the
• 10:20
  Rafael A. Mangual eyes of the general public.
• 10:22
  Rafael A. Mangual That's not good in the long term.
• 10:23
  Rafael A. Mangual It's not good in the short term.
• 10:25
  Rafael A. Mangual It doesn't produce any real benefits.
• 10:27
  Dennis Collins You mentioned something I wanna jump on.
• 10:29
  Dennis Collins You used the word sealed.
• 10:32
  Dennis Collins Can you explain what that is?
• 10:34
  Dennis Collins And I know you've written about this.
• 10:36
  Dennis Collins You've written articles about this.
• 10:37
  Dennis Collins You've spoken about this.
• 10:39
  Dennis Collins What role does this
• 10:40
  Dennis Collins so-called sealing have in all this?
• 10:43
  Dennis Collins Help us understand that.
• 10:44
  Rafael A. Mangual Yeah, so I actually wrote about this
• 10:46
  Rafael A. Mangual recently in the context of the Grand
• 10:47
  Rafael A. Mangual Central machete attack that you brought
• 10:50
  Rafael A. Mangual up earlier, because that individual did
• 10:52
  Rafael A. Mangual have 13 prior arrests.
• 10:54
  Rafael A. Mangual But when the police commissioner, Jessica
• 10:56
  Rafael A. Mangual Tisch, who I'm a big fan of, by the way,
• 10:58
  Rafael A. Mangual when she came out and gave the press
• 11:00
  Rafael A. Mangual conference in the wake of the officer
• 11:02
  Rafael A. Mangual involved shooting, she described him as
• 11:05
  Rafael A. Mangual having three unsealed arrests.
• 11:08
  Rafael A. Mangual Well, I looked at that.
• 11:10
  Rafael A. Mangual If you're in the know, you
• 11:12
  Rafael A. Mangual catch what she's doing, right?
• 11:13
  Rafael A. Mangual You can tell like, okay, there are other
• 11:15
  Rafael A. Mangual arrests here that she can't talk about,
• 11:19
  Rafael A. Mangual but she's giving us a clue.
• 11:22
  Rafael A. Mangual And so in New York City and in other
• 11:24
  Rafael A. Mangual jurisdictions, but in New York City, this
• 11:26
  Rafael A. Mangual has been a growing issue, a lot of
• 11:29
  Rafael A. Mangual arrests are automatically sealed.
• 11:31
  Rafael A. Mangual Any arrest that ends with a favorable
• 11:34
  Rafael A. Mangual disposition to a defendant in New York
• 11:37
  Rafael A. Mangual City is automatically sealed.
• 11:40
  Rafael A. Mangual Whether the case is dismissed because the
• 11:43
  Rafael A. Mangual person's factually innocent, or because
• 11:45
  Rafael A. Mangual the prosecutor fails to comply with a
• 11:48
  Rafael A. Mangual long list of technical and administrative
• 11:51
  Rafael A. Mangual requirements that they just don't have
• 11:53
  Rafael A. Mangual the bandwidth to comply with,
• 11:56
  Rafael A. Mangual that arrest gets sealed.
• 11:57
  Rafael A. Mangual And so it's a major problem.
• 11:59
  Rafael A. Mangual We also have a sealing statute.
• 12:01
  Rafael A. Mangual So there's a subset of criminal
• 12:03
  Rafael A. Mangual defendants who even after being
• 12:05
  Rafael A. Mangual convicted, if they go a certain period of
• 12:07
  Rafael A. Mangual time without reoffending, those arrests
• 12:10
  Rafael A. Mangual and convictions will be sealed.
• 12:11
  Rafael A. Mangual And so what ends up happening is you have
• 12:13
  Rafael A. Mangual all these people who
• 12:14
  Rafael A. Mangual come through the system
• 12:16
  Rafael A. Mangual whose criminal history is way more
• 12:18
  Rafael A. Mangual extensive than what
• 12:19
  Rafael A. Mangual it looks like on paper.
• 12:21
  Rafael A. Mangual And the sad part about it is, is that
• 12:23
  Rafael A. Mangual while the police department can see a lot
• 12:25
  Rafael A. Mangual of the unsealed arrests, those unsealed
• 12:28
  Rafael A. Mangual arrests don't normally end up in the
• 12:31
  Rafael A. Mangual files that prosecutors see.
• 12:33
  Rafael A. Mangual And the prosecutors are the ones making
• 12:34
  Rafael A. Mangual decisions about whether to release
• 12:36
  Rafael A. Mangual somebody, whether to
• 12:37
  Rafael A. Mangual pursue the case, right?
• 12:38
  Rafael A. Mangual They have limited resources, they can't
• 12:41
  Rafael A. Mangual prosecute everybody who
• 12:41
  Rafael A. Mangual comes through their office.
• 12:42
  Rafael A. Mangual So if they see a guy who
• 12:43
  Rafael A. Mangual only has one prior or no priors,
• 12:47
  Rafael A. Mangual it's like, all right,
• 12:47
  Rafael A. Mangual well, this is a low risk guy.
• 12:49
  Rafael A. Mangual We can concentrate on
• 12:51
  Rafael A. Mangual some of the other defendants.
• 12:52
  Rafael A. Mangual What they may not know is that that guy
• 12:54
  Rafael A. Mangual has four or five, six
• 12:55
  Rafael A. Mangual priors in the last two years.
• 12:57
  Rafael A. Mangual It's just that they're all sealed.
• 12:58
  Rafael A. Mangual Why?
• 12:59
  Rafael A. Mangual Well, because either they happened when
• 13:00
  Rafael A. Mangual he was a juvenile or because of our
• 13:03
  Rafael A. Mangual insane discovery rules, and I can get
• 13:07
  Rafael A. Mangual into that, but in New
• 13:08
  Rafael A. Mangual York City, basically.
• 13:09
  Bill Erfurth Are you saying that this is a state
• 13:11
  Bill Erfurth statute or is this a city thing?
• 13:13
  Rafael A. Mangual Both.
• 13:14
  Rafael A. Mangual So there's a state statute that requires
• 13:18
  Rafael A. Mangual the sealing of arrests and convictions if
• 13:21
  Rafael A. Mangual a certain classes of defendants go a
• 13:24
  Rafael A. Mangual certain period of
• 13:25
  Rafael A. Mangual time without reoffending.
• 13:27
  Rafael A. Mangual So it's an automatic sealing statute.
• 13:29
  Rafael A. Mangual It's called the Clean Slate Act.
• 13:31
  Rafael A. Mangual And the idea behind the Clean Slate Act
• 13:33
  Rafael A. Mangual is that, well, these defendants, we want
• 13:36
  Rafael A. Mangual them to live productive lives.
• 13:38
  Rafael A. Mangual That means we want them to get jobs.
• 13:40
  Rafael A. Mangual But if their prior arrest history is
• 13:42
  Rafael A. Mangual visible to potential
• 13:44
  Rafael A. Mangual employers, then they won't get hired.
• 13:47
  Rafael A. Mangual And so they end up with this rationale
• 13:51
  Rafael A. Mangual for sealing all these people's criminal
• 13:53
  Rafael A. Mangual history as if these people
• 13:55
  Rafael A. Mangual are the kinds of folks who want
• 13:59
  Rafael A. Mangual above market straight jobs to begin with.
• 14:02
  Rafael A. Mangual And even someone like this, right?
• 14:03
  Rafael A. Mangual Is always only got three priors.
• 14:05
  Rafael A. Mangual Well, three is very
• 14:05
  Rafael A. Mangual different from 13, right?
• 14:07
  Rafael A. Mangual And so if you prosecute.
• 14:09
  Bill Erfurth You know, the thing of it is, so you say
• 14:10
  Bill Erfurth three or 13, but we all know that say, if
• 14:15
  Bill Erfurth you got arrested for 13 crimes, how many
• 14:20
  Bill Erfurth others did you not get arrested for?
• 14:22
  Bill Erfurth Because for every one that you got
• 14:23
  Bill Erfurth arrested for, you probably
• 14:25
  Bill Erfurth did 10 or 20 others, right?
• 14:26
  Bill Erfurth Whether it's minor crimes or substantial
• 14:29
  Bill Erfurth crimes, you've gotten
• 14:30
  Bill Erfurth away from it, away with it.
• 14:33
  Bill Erfurth But here's the other thing is, you know,
• 14:35
  Bill Erfurth these laws and this logic behind this,
• 14:40
  Bill Erfurth you know, you're protecting and coddling
• 14:44
  Bill Erfurth the criminals instead of protecting the
• 14:47
  Bill Erfurth citizens and the victims.
• 14:49
  Bill Erfurth It just seems absolutely illogical.
• 14:52
  Rafael A. Mangual Oh, it's massively illogical.
• 14:55
  Rafael A. Mangual And you made the exact right point, which
• 14:56
  Rafael A. Mangual is that criminal history is only a very
• 14:59
  Rafael A. Mangual small snapshot of the overall criminal
• 15:02
  Rafael A. Mangual conduct engaged in by the defendant with
• 15:05
  Rafael A. Mangual the criminal history.
• 15:06
  Rafael A. Mangual There are a couple of things that we know
• 15:07
  Rafael A. Mangual for sure in criminology, there are only a
• 15:09
  Rafael A. Mangual couple, but these
• 15:11
  Rafael A. Mangual things we know for sure.
• 15:12
  Rafael A. Mangual Number one, most crime committed in the
• 15:15
  Rafael A. Mangual United States does not get
• 15:16
  Rafael A. Mangual reported to the police, right?
• 15:19
  Rafael A. Mangual We know this because every year there are
• 15:21
  Rafael A. Mangual two sources of federal
• 15:23
  Rafael A. Mangual crime data that come out.
• 15:25
  Rafael A. Mangual You have what used to be called the UCR,
• 15:27
  Rafael A. Mangual the Uniform Crime Report, it's now called
• 15:28
  Rafael A. Mangual NIBRS, National Incident Based Reporting
• 15:30
  Rafael A. Mangual System, that tells you all the crimes
• 15:32
  Rafael A. Mangual reported to police departments, all
• 15:33
  Rafael A. Mangual 18,000 police
• 15:34
  Rafael A. Mangual departments across the country.
• 15:37
  Rafael A. Mangual And then you have something called the
• 15:38
  Rafael A. Mangual NCVS, the National
• 15:40
  Rafael A. Mangual Crime Victimization Survey.
• 15:42
  Rafael A. Mangual That is a representative sample survey of
• 15:44
  Rafael A. Mangual the American public where they report to
• 15:47
  Rafael A. Mangual surveyors their personal experiences and
• 15:49
  Rafael A. Mangual the experiences of the people in their
• 15:51
  Rafael A. Mangual household with criminal victimization.
• 15:53
  Rafael A. Mangual And for every year that these two things
• 15:55
  Rafael A. Mangual have existed at the same time, there's
• 15:57
  Rafael A. Mangual been a massive gap between the two,
• 15:59
  Rafael A. Mangual meaning that the National Crime
• 16:00
  Rafael A. Mangual Victimization Survey consistently reports
• 16:03
  Rafael A. Mangual higher levels of victimization than what
• 16:05
  Rafael A. Mangual we see in the UCR or NIBRS.
• 16:09
  Rafael A. Mangual So that's number one, most crime doesn't
• 16:10
  Rafael A. Mangual get reported to the police.
• 16:12
  Rafael A. Mangual The federal government also reports on
• 16:14
  Rafael A. Mangual clearance data, right, clearances, the
• 16:16
  Rafael A. Mangual share of criminal
• 16:18
  Rafael A. Mangual complaints that result in an arrest.
• 16:22
  Rafael A. Mangual Most crimes, the vast majority of crimes,
• 16:25
  Rafael A. Mangual do not get cleared, right?
• 16:27
  Rafael A. Mangual So the federal government reports on the
• 16:28
  Rafael A. Mangual eight index offenses that attracts,
• 16:30
  Rafael A. Mangual right, four of which are
• 16:31
  Rafael A. Mangual violent, four of which are property.
• 16:33
  Rafael A. Mangual For the four violent index offenses,
• 16:34
  Rafael A. Mangual which is murder, non-negligent
• 16:36
  Rafael A. Mangual manslaughter, rape and sexual assault,
• 16:38
  Rafael A. Mangual robbery and aggravated assault,
• 16:41
  Rafael A. Mangual consistently, for as long
• 16:42
  Rafael A. Mangual as we've been keeping track,
• 16:44
  Rafael A. Mangual police departments clear about 47 to 50%
• 16:47
  Rafael A. Mangual of those crimes in a given year.
• 16:49
  Rafael A. Mangual That's it, right?
• 16:50
  Rafael A. Mangual So half the time, people are getting away
• 16:52
  Rafael A. Mangual with the four violent index
• 16:54
  Rafael A. Mangual felonies that they commit.
• 16:55
  Rafael A. Mangual If you look at the four property index
• 16:57
  Rafael A. Mangual felonies, so you have arson, you've got
• 16:59
  Rafael A. Mangual burglary, you've got grand
• 17:00
  Rafael A. Mangual larceny and grand theft auto.
• 17:02
  Rafael A. Mangual Those are cleared at a rate of about 18%
• 17:05
  Rafael A. Mangual every year, meaning that more than 80% of
• 17:08
  Rafael A. Mangual those go unanswered for.
• 17:10
  Rafael A. Mangual So, and those are just the
• 17:12
  Rafael A. Mangual most serious offenses, right?
• 17:13
  Rafael A. Mangual So now when you consider the lower level
• 17:15
  Rafael A. Mangual misdemeanors, the quality of life, time,
• 17:18
  Rafael A. Mangual Shoplifting, whatever.
• 17:19
  Rafael A. Mangual Yeah, it's like, you know, probably 90%
• 17:23
  Rafael A. Mangual of all crime committed in the United
• 17:25
  Rafael A. Mangual States either doesn't get reported or
• 17:27
  Rafael A. Mangual doesn't result in an arrest.
• 17:28
  Rafael A. Mangual When you see somebody with 10 prior
• 17:31
  Rafael A. Mangual arrests in their criminal history,
• 17:32
  Rafael A. Mangual understand that they have committed
• 17:34
  Rafael A. Mangual probably hundreds of criminal acts over
• 17:37
  Rafael A. Mangual the course of just the
• 17:38
  Rafael A. Mangual last five years, right?
• 17:41
  Rafael A. Mangual And that's the problem that I don't think
• 17:42
  Rafael A. Mangual the public really appreciates.
• 17:45
  Rafael A. Mangual And the reason I don't think they
• 17:46
  Rafael A. Mangual appreciate it is because they
• 17:47
  Rafael A. Mangual consistently express surprise
• 17:49
  Rafael A. Mangual when they see these records.
• 17:50
  Rafael A. Mangual It's like, what's this guy doing on the
• 17:53
  Rafael A. Mangual street with 25 prior arrests?
• 17:54
  Rafael A. Mangual It's like, what do you mean?
• 17:55
  Rafael A. Mangual This is par for the course
• 17:57
  Rafael A. Mangual in any major American city.
• 17:59
  Rafael A. Mangual And that's the thing
• 18:00
  Rafael A. Mangual that needs to change.
• 18:01
  Rafael A. Mangual That's the thing that made me
• 18:02
  Rafael A. Mangual want to do the work that I do.
• 18:03
  Rafael A. Mangual And that's why I cover this issue.
• 18:06
  Rafael A. Mangual I mean, that's, if there's one
• 18:07
  Dennis Collins thing-- This isn't just New York then.
• 18:08
  Dennis Collins This isn't just New York?
• 18:10
  Rafael A. Mangual No.
• 18:11
  Bill Erfurth No, this is everywhere.
• 18:12
  Bill Erfurth This is everywhere.
• 18:13
  Bill Erfurth And there's a statistic that's been
• 18:15
  Bill Erfurth floating around forever.
• 18:16
  Bill Erfurth And I wonder now, you know, you're on top
• 18:18
  Bill Erfurth of this more than most people is they
• 18:21
  Bill Erfurth talk about recidivism and it was always
• 18:25
  Bill Erfurth 10% of the population
• 18:27
  Bill Erfurth commits 90% of the crime.
• 18:28
  Rafael A. Mangual Oh, it's probably 5%.
• 18:30
  Rafael A. Mangual Yeah, you think it's 5%.
• 18:32
  Bill Erfurth So I mean, clearly if you
• 18:34
  Bill Erfurth eradicate the scourge, right?
• 18:35
  Bill Erfurth If you took that 5% or even 10% and you
• 18:38
  Bill Erfurth just put them all in prison or execute
• 18:41
  Bill Erfurth them, you know, like,
• 18:43
  Bill Erfurth what am I death row?
• 18:43
  Bill Erfurth Whatever happened?
• 18:45
  Bill Erfurth You know, think about how exponentially
• 18:49
  Bill Erfurth better the quality of life would be if
• 18:54
  Bill Erfurth you eradicated the scourge.
• 18:56
  Rafael A. Mangual Yeah, look, I mean,
• 18:57
  Rafael A. Mangual people say this all the time.
• 18:58
  Rafael A. Mangual There's a, you know, especially in the
• 19:00
  Rafael A. Mangual reform crowd, there's this adage that you
• 19:03
  Rafael A. Mangual can't arrest your way out of crimes.
• 19:05
  Rafael A. Mangual The hell you can't.
• 19:06
  Rafael A. Mangual That's impossible.
• 19:07
  Rafael A. Mangual You absolutely can.
• 19:07
  Rafael A. Mangual That's impossible to me.
• 19:09
  (Both Laughing)
• 19:09
  Rafael A. Mangual One of the more famous criminological
• 19:11
  Rafael A. Mangual studies on this came out of Sweden.
• 19:14
  Rafael A. Mangual It was a longitudinal study,
• 19:15
  Rafael A. Mangual which are always cool to see.
• 19:17
  Rafael A. Mangual And there's a famous one out of
• 19:18
  Rafael A. Mangual Philadelphia as well.
• 19:20
  Rafael A. Mangual The Philadelphia Delinquency Study.
• 19:23
  Rafael A. Mangual But basically longitudinal studies, they
• 19:25
  Rafael A. Mangual follow a birth cohort
• 19:26
  Rafael A. Mangual through life, right?
• 19:27
  Rafael A. Mangual So you pick a year and you look at a
• 19:31
  Rafael A. Mangual massive representative sample of all, you
• 19:33
  Rafael A. Mangual say, the boys born that year and you
• 19:35
  Rafael A. Mangual follow them through life.
• 19:37
  Rafael A. Mangual And you can get a sense of, you know,
• 19:39
  Rafael A. Mangual what the patterns in society are by
• 19:41
  Rafael A. Mangual tracking them, right?
• 19:42
  Rafael A. Mangual You can see what their educational
• 19:43
  Rafael A. Mangual attainment is, their life expectancy, how
• 19:45
  Rafael A. Mangual long they live, how many serve in the
• 19:46
  Rafael A. Mangual military, how many are
• 19:47
  Rafael A. Mangual employed, what their earnings are.
• 19:49
  Rafael A. Mangual And one of the measures from a study out
• 19:51
  Rafael A. Mangual of Sweden found that using one of these
• 19:54
  Rafael A. Mangual lifelong cohort studies, they found that
• 19:56
  Rafael A. Mangual about 1% of the population was
• 19:59
  Rafael A. Mangual responsible for 63% of the
• 20:02
  Rafael A. Mangual crime in the country of Sweden.
• 20:04
  Rafael A. Mangual That finding has been
• 20:04
  Rafael A. Mangual replicated all around the world.
• 20:07
  Rafael A. Mangual The power law holds, the Pareto
• 20:09
  Rafael A. Mangual distribution is undefeated in every
• 20:12
  Rafael A. Mangual single jurisdiction in America and in
• 20:14
  Rafael A. Mangual every other country in the world.
• 20:16
  Rafael A. Mangual It is a small share of the population
• 20:18
  Rafael A. Mangual that is responsible for the vast majority
• 20:21
  Rafael A. Mangual of all the criminal conduct that occurs.
• 20:23
  Rafael A. Mangual And the reason for that is, is that most
• 20:26
  Rafael A. Mangual people, while not
• 20:27
  Rafael A. Mangual necessarily born good, right?
• 20:29
  Rafael A. Mangual I'm a Hobbesian at heart, I think, if
• 20:32
  Rafael A. Mangual you've ever dealt with a toddler or an
• 20:34
  Rafael A. Mangual infant, you can see that most people are
• 20:36
  Rafael A. Mangual born uncivilized savages who would kill
• 20:40
  Rafael A. Mangual you if they got the chance.
• 20:41
  Dennis Collins Billy, you like that,
• 20:42
  Dennis Collins uncivilized savages.
• 20:44
  Dennis Collins But that sounds like me.
• 20:46
  Rafael A. Mangual But in the vast majority of cases,
• 20:50
  Rafael A. Mangual parents, communities, teachers, we are
• 20:51
  Rafael A. Mangual able to properly socialize everyone who
• 20:55
  Rafael A. Mangual is born usually by the
• 20:56
  Rafael A. Mangual age of three or four.
• 20:58
  Rafael A. Mangual That process is complete, but for a very
• 20:59
  Rafael A. Mangual small subset of the population, that
• 21:01
  Rafael A. Mangual process breaks down from one reason or
• 21:03
  Rafael A. Mangual another, and they don't
• 21:04
  Rafael A. Mangual get socialized, right?
• 21:05
  Rafael A. Mangual And so they are sort of incorrigible by
• 21:08
  Rafael A. Mangual virtue of the fact that they are
• 21:10
  Rafael A. Mangual dispositionally antisocial.
• 21:12
  Rafael A. Mangual And that antisocial disposition is gonna
• 21:14
  Rafael A. Mangual manifest itself in a
• 21:16
  Rafael A. Mangual myriad of ways, right?
• 21:17
  Rafael A. Mangual And some of that is
• 21:18
  Rafael A. Mangual context dependent, right?
• 21:19
  Rafael A. Mangual If you are a deeply antisocial person who
• 21:23
  Rafael A. Mangual is born and raised in the milieu of
• 21:25
  Rafael A. Mangual Greenwich, Connecticut, where everyone
• 21:27
  Rafael A. Mangual around you is a millionaire and you're
• 21:29
  Rafael A. Mangual from a family of
• 21:30
  Rafael A. Mangual centimillionaires, right?
• 21:32
  Rafael A. Mangual Maybe that's gonna manifest itself in
• 21:34
  Rafael A. Mangual insider trading or whatever, utilizing
• 21:39
  Rafael A. Mangual high-end prostitutes, something.
• 21:42
  Rafael A. Mangual But you're gonna communicate outwardly
• 21:45
  Rafael A. Mangual your rejection of social mores.
• 21:48
  Rafael A. Mangual But if you are raised in, you know,
• 21:51
  Rafael A. Mangual Englewood on the South Side of Chicago,
• 21:53
  Rafael A. Mangual where everyone's in a gang and people
• 21:55
  Rafael A. Mangual resolve their disputes with violence and
• 21:58
  Rafael A. Mangual they achieve status through violence,
• 21:59
  Rafael A. Mangual well, then that's what you're
• 22:00
  Rafael A. Mangual gonna do if you're antisocial.
• 22:01
  Rafael A. Mangual Of course.
• 22:03
  Dennis Collins Let me ask you this question.
• 22:04
  Dennis Collins You made an interesting point.
• 22:07
  Dennis Collins Are we dealing here, Raphael, with, you
• 22:09
  Dennis Collins know, we often hear a lot of these
• 22:12
  Dennis Collins offenders nowadays, well, they were
• 22:14
  Dennis Collins mentally challenged.
• 22:16
  Dennis Collins They had mental issues
• 22:17
  Dennis Collins before they offended.
• 22:20
  Dennis Collins Our Lucifer, our machete man was that.
• 22:24
  Dennis Collins Of course, he can no longer repeat
• 22:26
  Dennis Collins because two New York detectives happened
• 22:28
  Dennis Collins to be there, ordered him 20
• 22:30
  Dennis Collins times to put down the knife.
• 22:32
  Dennis Collins Of course he didn't do it
• 22:33
  Dennis Collins and he's no longer with us.
• 22:35
  Dennis Collins So there's no recidivism on his part.
• 22:37
  Dennis Collins But how much of this is a mental health
• 22:39
  Dennis Collins issue and how much of
• 22:41
  Dennis Collins this is a legal issue?
• 22:42
  Dennis Collins Or do they, where do they
• 22:43
  Dennis Collins meet or where do they diverge?
• 22:46
  Rafael A. Mangual Yeah, I mean, I think it depends on what
• 22:47
  Rafael A. Mangual you mean by mental health.
• 22:48
  Rafael A. Mangual And I think it's an overused label that
• 22:51
  Rafael A. Mangual gets attached to a big
• 22:52
  Rafael A. Mangual share of offenders, right?
• 22:53
  Rafael A. Mangual You hear this a lot, you know, the jails
• 22:54
  Rafael A. Mangual are the new mental hospitals and, you
• 22:56
  Rafael A. Mangual know, Rikers Island,
• 22:57
  Rafael A. Mangual you get this massive stat.
• 22:59
  Rafael A. Mangual It's like, you know, 50%, 60% of the
• 23:01
  Rafael A. Mangual inmates on Rikers Island in the New York
• 23:03
  Rafael A. Mangual City jail system have a
• 23:04
  Rafael A. Mangual mental health diagnosis.
• 23:06
  Rafael A. Mangual It's like, okay, but like, you know, is,
• 23:09
  Rafael A. Mangual are we talking anxiety, depression?
• 23:11
  Rafael A. Mangual Are we talking substance use disorder?
• 23:13
  Rafael A. Mangual Are we talking
• 23:13
  Rafael A. Mangual paranoid schizophrenia, right?
• 23:16
  Rafael A. Mangual If you're talking
• 23:16
  Rafael A. Mangual serious mental illness, right?
• 23:18
  Rafael A. Mangual Like severe bipolar disorder, paranoid
• 23:21
  Rafael A. Mangual schizophrenia, that's a very, very, very
• 23:23
  Rafael A. Mangual small slice of the criminal population.
• 23:26
  Rafael A. Mangual And notice too that even those offenders
• 23:28
  Rafael A. Mangual are generally not crazy enough to pick on
• 23:31
  Rafael A. Mangual people who can win a
• 23:33
  Rafael A. Mangual physical engagement, right?
• 23:35
  Rafael A. Mangual And it's almost always the case that the
• 23:37
  Rafael A. Mangual nut who pushes somebody onto the subway
• 23:39
  Rafael A. Mangual is pushing a woman, is pushing an elderly
• 23:41
  Rafael A. Mangual person, even the guy in Grand Central,
• 23:43
  Rafael A. Mangual despite, you know, having--
• 23:45
  Rafael A. Mangual They're all elderly people.
• 23:46
  Rafael A. Mangual Yeah, they were all elderly people.
• 23:48
  Rafael A. Mangual And that was despite the fact that he had
• 23:50
  Rafael A. Mangual the advantage because he
• 23:51
  Rafael A. Mangual was armed and they were not.
• 23:52
  Dennis Collins Right.
• 23:53
  Rafael A. Mangual And so, you know, I always say like, take
• 23:55
  Rafael A. Mangual the crazy label with a grain of salt
• 23:57
  Rafael A. Mangual because they're never crazy enough to
• 23:59
  Rafael A. Mangual pick like the 25 year old Jack dude, you
• 24:01
  Rafael A. Mangual know, who looks like he
• 24:02
  Rafael A. Mangual can take care of himself.
• 24:04
  Rafael A. Mangual Yeah.
• 24:05
  Rafael A. Mangual So that's number one.
• 24:06
  Rafael A. Mangual But number two is, yeah, there is a
• 24:07
  Rafael A. Mangual massive over-representation of people
• 24:09
  Rafael A. Mangual with less severe mental health diagnoses
• 24:12
  Rafael A. Mangual within the criminal population.
• 24:15
  Rafael A. Mangual The cluster B personality disorders are
• 24:17
  Rafael A. Mangual overrepresented, right, so if you take
• 24:19
  Rafael A. Mangual something like antisocial personality
• 24:20
  Rafael A. Mangual disorder, which is, you know,
• 24:22
  Rafael A. Mangual diagnosable, it's listed out in the DSM,
• 24:24
  Rafael A. Mangual all the diagnostic criteria there.
• 24:26
  Rafael A. Mangual In the general population in the United
• 24:28
  Rafael A. Mangual States, if you're just looking at men who
• 24:30
  Rafael A. Mangual commit most of the crime, right, the ASPD
• 24:32
  Rafael A. Mangual has a prevalence rate of about two to 4%,
• 24:34
  Rafael A. Mangual depending on which study you look at.
• 24:37
  Rafael A. Mangual In prisons,
• 24:39
  Rafael A. Mangual it ranges between 40 and 70%, depending
• 24:41
  Rafael A. Mangual on the facility that's
• 24:42
  Rafael A. Mangual been surveyed, right?
• 24:43
  Rafael A. Mangual So it's more common, you know, cluster B
• 24:46
  Rafael A. Mangual personality disorders are more common in
• 24:48
  Rafael A. Mangual criminal populations than poverty, than
• 24:51
  Rafael A. Mangual all of these other socioeconomic factors
• 24:54
  Rafael A. Mangual that people love to blame crime on.
• 24:56
  Rafael A. Mangual You know, if you add substance use
• 24:58
  Rafael A. Mangual disorders, I think it's more than 50% of
• 25:00
  Rafael A. Mangual the prison population,
• 25:02
  Rafael A. Mangual you know, at some point in their life had
• 25:04
  Rafael A. Mangual a diagnosable substance use disorder,
• 25:06
  Rafael A. Mangual whether it's alcohol, drugs, a massive
• 25:08
  Rafael A. Mangual portion of them actually report, we don't
• 25:11
  Rafael A. Mangual do these surveys anymore, which is a
• 25:12
  Rafael A. Mangual shame, because they were a good source of
• 25:13
  Rafael A. Mangual data, but a massive, consistently massive
• 25:16
  Rafael A. Mangual share of the prison population used to
• 25:18
  Rafael A. Mangual report that they were actually under the
• 25:19
  Rafael A. Mangual influence of drugs or alcohol at the time
• 25:21
  Rafael A. Mangual of the offense for which
• 25:22
  Rafael A. Mangual they were incarcerated.
• 25:23
  Craig Floyd And Raph, there's another factor that
• 25:26
  Craig Floyd I've always believed strongly in, and we
• 25:29
  Craig Floyd put a lot of these statistics on our
• 25:31
  Craig Floyd website for citizens behind the badge,
• 25:33
  Craig Floyd and I know you've talked about it
• 25:35
  Craig Floyd yourself, and that is
• 25:36
  Craig Floyd the role of parenting
• 25:39
  Craig Floyd in a criminal
• 25:40
  Craig Floyd population today, all right?
• 25:42
  Craig Floyd And I think the statistics say something
• 25:44
  Craig Floyd like 23 million people, roughly 20
• 25:49
  Craig Floyd million people in this country, children,
• 25:52
  Craig Floyd are living in single parent homes.
• 25:55
  Craig Floyd It's the highest rate
• 25:56
  Craig Floyd anywhere in the world, all right?
• 25:59
  Craig Floyd Our rate of children living in single
• 26:03
  Craig Floyd parent homes is three times the world
• 26:06
  Craig Floyd average, and that's very
• 26:09
  Craig Floyd disheartening, I think.
• 26:11
  Craig Floyd We talk about our country being the
• 26:12
  Craig Floyd greatest on earth, and I think it is in
• 26:14
  Craig Floyd many ways, but certainly not
• 26:16
  Craig Floyd when it comes to parenting.
• 26:18
  Craig Floyd What is your view of the role of parents,
• 26:23
  Craig Floyd especially in single parent homes, you
• 26:25
  Craig Floyd see a tremendous number of people that
• 26:29
  Craig Floyd become criminals as a result of their
• 26:32
  Craig Floyd upbringing, and I'd like you to comment
• 26:34
  Craig Floyd on that, because I think this is an
• 26:35
  Craig Floyd overlooked factor when we talk about how
• 26:38
  Craig Floyd people become criminals in this country.
• 26:41
  Rafael A. Mangual Yeah, I mean, I think a lot of it has to
• 26:43
  Rafael A. Mangual do with what I was just talking about,
• 26:44
  Rafael A. Mangual which are the prevalence of the cluster B
• 26:46
  Rafael A. Mangual personality disorders
• 26:47
  Rafael A. Mangual in criminal populations.
• 26:49
  Rafael A. Mangual The cluster B personality disorders don't
• 26:50
  Rafael A. Mangual just come out of nowhere, right?
• 26:52
  Rafael A. Mangual They are usually visible in early
• 26:54
  Rafael A. Mangual childhood, and there are two kinds of
• 26:56
  Rafael A. Mangual disorders that become visible.
• 26:58
  Rafael A. Mangual Some as early as infancy, or late
• 27:00
  Rafael A. Mangual infancy, I should say, which is
• 27:02
  Rafael A. Mangual oppositional defiance disorder, ODD,
• 27:05
  Rafael A. Mangual where even a small child who can't
• 27:08
  Rafael A. Mangual communicate doesn't respond the same way
• 27:11
  Rafael A. Mangual to discipline and admonition,
• 27:13
  Rafael A. Mangual the same way that
• 27:14
  Rafael A. Mangual most babies would, right?
• 27:15
  Rafael A. Mangual Most babies, if you admonish them and you
• 27:17
  Rafael A. Mangual yell at them, they get fearful, they cry.
• 27:22
  Rafael A. Mangual There are some who just,
• 27:24
  Rafael A. Mangual they don't react, right?
• 27:25
  Rafael A. Mangual You can tell already they are being
• 27:27
  Rafael A. Mangual oppositional despite the fact that they
• 27:29
  Rafael A. Mangual can't even verbally
• 27:30
  Rafael A. Mangual communicate that opposition.
• 27:32
  Rafael A. Mangual And then in later childhood, for boys, it
• 27:35
  Rafael A. Mangual can be diagnosable as early as like seven
• 27:36
  Rafael A. Mangual years old, which is a
• 27:39
  Rafael A. Mangual juvenile conduct disorder, CD.
• 27:42
  Rafael A. Mangual Now, what's interesting about both ODD
• 27:44
  Rafael A. Mangual and CD is that they are the precursors to
• 27:48
  Rafael A. Mangual full-blown cluster B
• 27:49
  Rafael A. Mangual personality disorders.
• 27:50
  Rafael A. Mangual And what the research suggests is that a
• 27:54
  Rafael A. Mangual subset, a definable, consistently
• 27:56
  Rafael A. Mangual definable subset of children who are
• 27:59
  Rafael A. Mangual diagnosed with a conduct disorder in
• 28:00
  Rafael A. Mangual early childhood will see that conduct
• 28:03
  Rafael A. Mangual disorder metastasize into a full-on
• 28:05
  Rafael A. Mangual personality disorder in later life.
• 28:07
  Rafael A. Mangual There's really no way to predict which
• 28:08
  Rafael A. Mangual ones will sort of age out of it and which
• 28:10
  Rafael A. Mangual ones won't, but it's sort
• 28:13
  Rafael A. Mangual of just a rule at this point.
• 28:16
  Rafael A. Mangual And the worst part is that there's really
• 28:18
  Rafael A. Mangual nothing that we can do to stop it.
• 28:19
  Rafael A. Mangual There are no psychological interventions
• 28:21
  Rafael A. Mangual that are consistently shown to help.
• 28:24
  Rafael A. Mangual So that's issue number one.
• 28:27
  Rafael A. Mangual Where parenting comes in is that the kids
• 28:30
  Rafael A. Mangual who are at risk of developing a childhood
• 28:34
  Rafael A. Mangual conduct disorder are kids who have lower
• 28:37
  Rafael A. Mangual levels of parental supervision, who are
• 28:39
  Rafael A. Mangual subjected to cold parenting styles,
• 28:42
  Rafael A. Mangual unpredictable
• 28:42
  Rafael A. Mangual discipline from their parents,
• 28:45
  Rafael A. Mangual who are living in households with high
• 28:47
  Rafael A. Mangual levels of financial stress,
• 28:51
  Rafael A. Mangual who are exposed to parental drug use and
• 28:53
  Rafael A. Mangual alcohol abuse, who are exposed to
• 28:55
  Rafael A. Mangual domestic violence, who become victims of
• 28:58
  Rafael A. Mangual child abuse and neglect.
• 29:00
  Rafael A. Mangual Now, what kids have a higher rate of
• 29:03
  Rafael A. Mangual suffering from all of those factors which
• 29:05
  Rafael A. Mangual sociologists call ACEs,
• 29:07
  Rafael A. Mangual Adverse Childhood Experiences.
• 29:09
  Rafael A. Mangual That set of adverse childhood experiences
• 29:11
  Rafael A. Mangual is most common in
• 29:13
  Rafael A. Mangual single mother households.
• 29:16
  Rafael A. Mangual Single mother households have lower
• 29:17
  Rafael A. Mangual levels of supervision because you only
• 29:19
  Rafael A. Mangual got one parent, right?
• 29:21
  Rafael A. Mangual Single mother households tend to have
• 29:22
  Rafael A. Mangual higher levels of stress because it's
• 29:23
  Rafael A. Mangual stressful raising a kid.
• 29:24
  Rafael A. Mangual I have two and we were stressed out with
• 29:27
  Rafael A. Mangual two loving married parents, just who make
• 29:30
  Rafael A. Mangual good money and we're trying
• 29:31
  Rafael A. Mangual to get it together, right?
• 29:32
  Rafael A. Mangual So imagine if you are on your own and
• 29:35
  Rafael A. Mangual don't have a lot of resources, right?
• 29:36
  Rafael A. Mangual Very stressful.
• 29:38
  Rafael A. Mangual Cold parenting styles, right?
• 29:39
  Rafael A. Mangual There are often a lot of psychological
• 29:41
  Rafael A. Mangual stressors that characterize the mother's
• 29:44
  Rafael A. Mangual life at that time that might lead to cold
• 29:46
  Rafael A. Mangual parenting styles and unpredictable and
• 29:48
  Rafael A. Mangual sometimes a violent discipline that
• 29:51
  Rafael A. Mangual crosses the threshold from discipline
• 29:54
  Rafael A. Mangual into abuse and or neglect.
• 29:57
  Rafael A. Mangual Single moms tend to have boyfriends at
• 29:59
  Rafael A. Mangual times and one of the biggest risk factors
• 30:01
  Rafael A. Mangual for child abuse and neglect is a
• 30:03
  Rafael A. Mangual non-biological man in the house.
• 30:08
  Rafael A. Mangual So when you look at all those factors,
• 30:10
  Rafael A. Mangual the overlap of the kind of ACEs that both
• 30:13
  Rafael A. Mangual predict the cluster B personality
• 30:15
  Rafael A. Mangual disorders associated with criminal
• 30:16
  Rafael A. Mangual offending and that are much more common
• 30:19
  Rafael A. Mangual in single parent households, it's hard to
• 30:22
  Rafael A. Mangual get away from the idea that these two
• 30:24
  Rafael A. Mangual things might be interrelated.
• 30:25
  Rafael A. Mangual And so I was actually a co-author on a
• 30:26
  Rafael A. Mangual study that sought to
• 30:28
  Rafael A. Mangual empirically prove this.
• 30:30
  Rafael A. Mangual And what we did was we did
• 30:31
  Rafael A. Mangual sort of two levels of analysis.
• 30:33
  Rafael A. Mangual We did a national county level analysis
• 30:35
  Rafael A. Mangual where we looked at all the US counties
• 30:37
  Rafael A. Mangual that were one standard deviation above
• 30:40
  Rafael A. Mangual and one standard deviation below the
• 30:42
  Rafael A. Mangual median share of households
• 30:44
  Rafael A. Mangual headed by a single parent.
• 30:46
  Rafael A. Mangual And we looked at crime trends at the ones
• 30:48
  Rafael A. Mangual a standard deviation above and the ones a
• 30:50
  Rafael A. Mangual standard deviation below and we put in
• 30:51
  Rafael A. Mangual all these controls for poverty, other
• 30:54
  Rafael A. Mangual sociodemographic factors.
• 30:56
  Rafael A. Mangual And we found massive disparities in the
• 30:59
  Rafael A. Mangual counties that were above the threshold.
• 31:01
  Rafael A. Mangual One standard deviation above the
• 31:03
  Rafael A. Mangual threshold, we saw massive differences in
• 31:06
  Rafael A. Mangual crime overall, in
• 31:07
  Rafael A. Mangual violent crime and in homicide.
• 31:10
  Rafael A. Mangual Then we decided to zoom in.
• 31:11
  Rafael A. Mangual We zoomed in on the city of Chicago and
• 31:13
  Rafael A. Mangual we did the same analysis
• 31:14
  Rafael A. Mangual but using census tracts.
• 31:16
  Rafael A. Mangual So we looked at all the census tracts in
• 31:17
  Rafael A. Mangual the city of Chicago that were one
• 31:19
  Rafael A. Mangual standard deviation above and below the
• 31:20
  Rafael A. Mangual median threshold for houses
• 31:22
  Rafael A. Mangual headed by a single parent.
• 31:24
  Rafael A. Mangual And the disparities were even bigger and
• 31:26
  Rafael A. Mangual just as consistent across all three
• 31:28
  Rafael A. Mangual measures, overall crime, violent crime
• 31:31
  Rafael A. Mangual and homicide specifically.
• 31:33
  Rafael A. Mangual And that was net of controls for all the
• 31:35
  Rafael A. Mangual other things that you would think might
• 31:37
  Rafael A. Mangual affect criminal exposure.
• 31:38
  Rafael A. Mangual And so I am convinced that one of the
• 31:41
  Rafael A. Mangual reasons why we have such a massive racial
• 31:44
  Rafael A. Mangual disparity in terms of criminal offending
• 31:46
  Rafael A. Mangual owes to the fact that there's a massive
• 31:48
  Rafael A. Mangual racial disparity in
• 31:49
  Rafael A. Mangual family formation, right?
• 31:50
  Rafael A. Mangual About 23% of white children are born to
• 31:53
  Rafael A. Mangual unwed mothers in the United States.
• 31:55
  Rafael A. Mangual It's about 70% for black children.
• 31:57
  Rafael A. Mangual When you have that massive of a
• 31:59
  Rafael A. Mangual disparity, I think that is going to show
• 32:02
  Rafael A. Mangual up down the line in all of the things
• 32:04
  Rafael A. Mangual that we know are
• 32:05
  Rafael A. Mangual associated with single parenthood.
• 32:07
  Rafael A. Mangual And one of those things is crime.
• 32:10
  Paul Boomer In part two of this conversation, Rafael
• 32:12
  Paul Boomer Mangual tells the story of Brittany Hill.
• 32:15
  Paul Boomer She was 24 years old standing outside her
• 32:17
  Paul Boomer house on the west side of Chicago,
• 32:20
  Paul Boomer holding her one-year-old daughter when a
• 32:21
  Paul Boomer car pulled up and opened fire.
• 32:23
  Paul Boomer She turned, she shielded her daughter and
• 32:26
  Paul Boomer she took the bullets and she bled out in
• 32:28
  Paul Boomer the street with the little girl still
• 32:30
  Paul Boomer clinging to her neck.
• 32:31
  Paul Boomer The man arrested had nine prior felony
• 32:34
  Paul Boomer convictions, including
• 32:35
  Paul Boomer murder, and he was free.
• 32:36
  Paul Boomer That story is why Rafael wrote "Criminal
• 32:39
  Paul Boomer Injustice" and why he spent the rest of
• 32:41
  Paul Boomer this conversation dismantling every
• 32:44
  Paul Boomer argument used to keep men
• 32:46
  Paul Boomer like that on the street.
• 32:47
  Paul Boomer Subscribe so you don't miss it.
• 32:50
  (Upbeat Music)