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Inflation, Supply Chain, And Wall Street (Podcast) · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
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Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
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Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
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Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
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Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
0:18
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Let's bring into Ed
0:22
Speaker 1: Price right now. He's a senior fellow and UH at
0:25
Speaker 1: n y U and a former British trade official. Also,
0:28
Speaker 1: UM has been an advisory posts for a lot of
0:32
Speaker 1: very important bodies like the European Parliament. UH and Ed,
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Speaker 1: I we got to talk first about well, maybe only
0:41
Speaker 1: about inflation, right, whether it's here or there. Um, what
0:44
Speaker 1: do you think about the numbers that we saw today? Um?
0:47
Speaker 1: Eight point six percent is the headline number, and it
0:50
Speaker 1: makes me wonder can the FED really afford to still
0:55
Speaker 1: prefer core pc E or do they have to look
0:58
Speaker 1: at headline cp I the latter and quickly and immediately
1:02
Speaker 1: and fast, and like, I feel like I'm repeating myself
1:04
Speaker 1: on your show. So if I'm getting bored and kicked
1:06
Speaker 1: me out, but like, let's do this right, let's hike,
1:08
Speaker 1: let's hike quickly. Um, but you mentioned Europe, and I
1:11
Speaker 1: feel like if the problem over here is a sort
1:14
Speaker 1: of traditional inflationary spiral, that a you know, that's a
1:18
Speaker 1: traditional way for a central bank to get past that,
1:21
Speaker 1: which is a recession. I think they've got other problems
1:23
Speaker 1: in Europe. As we were saying, right, yeah, so this
1:25
Speaker 1: is like yesterday the ECB meeting. I was watching it.
1:29
Speaker 1: Wait was it yesterday? Yeah? Yeah, okay, yesterday. It seems
1:33
Speaker 1: like forever ago. I was watching it and thinking, Um,
1:36
Speaker 1: Leguard has no way to stop inflation if she wants
1:41
Speaker 1: to avoid what we're calling fragmentation. Now, by the way,
1:43
Speaker 1: that's a new term for me. I did not know that.
1:45
Speaker 1: But basically it means the peripheral bond spreads are blowing out.
1:49
Speaker 1: Um or if she wants to worry about that, inflation
1:52
Speaker 1: is going to run buck wild. Let me stay here
1:54
Speaker 1: in America, right, So, Um, what happens either basically the
1:59
Speaker 1: whole system has to change, right, because they can't continue
2:03
Speaker 1: operating monetary policy for Europe as a whole and have
2:06
Speaker 1: each individual country run its own budget and lending and borrowing. Right, So,
2:10
Speaker 1: when you say that they're they're running monetary policy for
2:13
Speaker 1: Europe as a whole, that's right. And what they're thinking
2:15
Speaker 1: about is not just the nineteen member Eurozone economy, but
2:19
Speaker 1: they're also thinking about the single currency itself. And you know,
2:22
Speaker 1: we were saying before, before I came on ten years ago,
2:25
Speaker 1: we were we were seriously talking about the Euro Area
2:28
Speaker 1: breaking apart, which is when Drag said he'll do whatever
2:31
Speaker 1: it takes, whatever it takes, baby, right, absolutely, Um, can
2:35
Speaker 1: they do whatever it takes now? And what is whatever
2:37
Speaker 1: it takes? What? What would it be? So if you
2:39
Speaker 1: look at you know, CPO inflation in the euro Area
2:42
Speaker 1: eight point one, you look at their four point nine
2:44
Speaker 1: trillion euro balance sheet, it's sort of a bad cyclical story.
2:49
Speaker 1: And BTP spreads getting close to three, closer and closer
2:52
Speaker 1: to the danger zone. The danger zone exactly, which is spread.
2:57
Speaker 1: So that's Italian borrowing right now costs for ten years
3:01
Speaker 1: I think three hundred and fifty basis points and the
3:04
Speaker 1: buns are at a hundred and change. So the spread
3:08
Speaker 1: is two and a half percent, okay, which is something
3:10
Speaker 1: that we saw. We used to call that the frayed rope.
3:12
Speaker 1: If you remember that the spread between the periphery and
3:14
Speaker 1: the center, and you're afraid. Not I'm afraid and not right,
3:17
Speaker 1: I'll go back and dig out some of my dusty
3:18
Speaker 1: lectures Highland do you have? But but basically, like this
3:22
Speaker 1: is one of the key risk indicators for the basically
3:25
Speaker 1: the existence of the Euro itself. Right, if it becomes
3:28
Speaker 1: too expensive for your area countries on the periphery to borrow,
3:32
Speaker 1: and those countries, by the way, often need to borrow
3:34
Speaker 1: more than your average central European country, at some point
3:38
Speaker 1: somebody in their finance ministry says, you know what, maybe
3:40
Speaker 1: we should just leave this currency. Well, in fact, in
3:43
Speaker 1: two thousand and eleven, um, the concern was that that
3:47
Speaker 1: exactly that would happen, right, the whole up project i'll
3:52
Speaker 1: still call it, would break up. Now I'm thinking post pandemic,
3:55
Speaker 1: especially after we had the I think seven fifty billion
3:58
Speaker 1: euro stimulus. Now I could go the other way. They
4:01
Speaker 1: could become the United States of Europe if the richer
4:05
Speaker 1: countries were willing to play along. Right, that's my central case. Now, um,
4:09
Speaker 1: not everyone will agree with that, but I think that
4:11
Speaker 1: that's the direction of travel. And I think there's two
4:13
Speaker 1: things to say. One, of course, that involves some sort
4:16
Speaker 1: of German consent on the fiscal side. But I think
4:19
Speaker 1: the other thing is that if you look at the
4:21
Speaker 1: logic of any currency um the size and importance of
4:25
Speaker 1: the Euro, we're going to have to move the capital
4:27
Speaker 1: market situation in Europe in a sort of open, an
4:31
Speaker 1: open direction in order that they can create the sort
4:32
Speaker 1: of depth and liquidity that you see in the US
4:35
Speaker 1: and the UK. So that's a bit of a contradiction
4:37
Speaker 1: because on the one hand you've got the German instinct,
4:39
Speaker 1: which is top down economic policy, and on the other
4:41
Speaker 1: hand you need what they would say is Anglo Saxon
4:44
Speaker 1: market forces. What would prompt Germany to take a bigger
4:47
Speaker 1: role to allow that to happen, to allow the United
4:50
Speaker 1: States of Europe, Well, I think it would be some
4:53
Speaker 1: sort of shift and mat will know more about this
4:55
Speaker 1: having having been in Germany for so long, some sort
4:57
Speaker 1: of shift in the German mentality as to leadership, which
5:01
Speaker 1: is I think a word in German that you don't
5:04
Speaker 1: always want to use. Right, you could argue they were
5:06
Speaker 1: taking their changing their views leadership leadership. Right, you could
5:10
Speaker 1: argue with their changing their views on the military. Here
5:12
Speaker 1: with they're changing their views didn't. Did they spend a
5:15
Speaker 1: lot to support the europe during the pandemic and things
5:18
Speaker 1: like that? Yeah, there's I think they are. I think
5:21
Speaker 1: there's like a hundred billion euro defense fund that the
5:24
Speaker 1: Germans have now agreed to and that they're of course
5:26
Speaker 1: going to meet the two they agree to it in
5:28
Speaker 1: two thousand twelve. They're finally fulfilling that. They're finally fulfilling it, right,
5:32
Speaker 1: So there's there's an external pressure that's kind of pushing
5:34
Speaker 1: them in the right direction. But my question is what's
5:36
Speaker 1: the stick are going to be on those tanks? Is
5:38
Speaker 1: it going to be the German cross or is it
5:40
Speaker 1: going to be the European Union flag? Um, it has
5:42
Speaker 1: to be the European Unions because even you know, German
5:46
Speaker 1: voters won't allow on the iron cross to come back.
5:49
Speaker 1: I want to just finally ask you about America. Get
5:52
Speaker 1: back to the u S. Here we had the University
5:54
Speaker 1: of Michigan consumer sentiment UM gauge come in at a
5:57
Speaker 1: record low. What the change has to happen? Here is
6:01
Speaker 1: Biden rewriting his speech furiously right now on the U
6:04
Speaker 1: S S Iowa. He may well be I don't know,
6:06
Speaker 1: I wish showing you um that those reads were terrible.
6:10
Speaker 1: I mean, that's really scary stuff. What's the opposite of
6:12
Speaker 1: Buck Wilde. I don't know, I don't know, but it's
6:15
Speaker 1: not good, right, No, No, it's tough. So yeah, I
6:19
Speaker 1: mean the consumers out there are you know, that's inflations
6:22
Speaker 1: hitting them. But you know there's some We had Jonathan
6:23
Speaker 1: Goliban earlier from I believe he's where's it now, Chris.
6:29
Speaker 1: He says economy is still strong, got a strong labor
6:31
Speaker 1: market and so on. He's been a bull for twenty years,
6:35
Speaker 1: no offense. He's in my motorcycle gang to me, Jonathan
6:39
Speaker 1: gollub Lefkovich, Binky Chatta. We had a gang back in
6:42
Speaker 1: the day. Alright, Ed Price, senior fellow in former trade official.
6:46
Speaker 1: He's at n y U now, but he comes up
6:47
Speaker 1: and sees us every once in a while. Well. Our
6:54
Speaker 1: next guest, Matt. She got her NBA from Darden that's
6:57
Speaker 1: the University of Virginia's business school, and I went down
7:00
Speaker 1: there to visit there. They said, we work harder than
7:03
Speaker 1: anybody else. It is the tough workload, but it makes
7:07
Speaker 1: you a better person. I said, that's the last thing
7:09
Speaker 1: I'm looking for. Exactly. You're dressed in the in the
7:11
Speaker 1: UVA color, So I want to do instead the NBA
7:13
Speaker 1: folks they it darted and they worked way too hard.
7:15
Speaker 1: But Naeseta Henry joins us. She's a chief Innovation officer
7:19
Speaker 1: for Deloitte Consulting UM Nasheta. We're parting through here like
7:23
Speaker 1: a lot of investors are kind of this really hot
7:26
Speaker 1: inflation uh data point that we got today, and we're
7:29
Speaker 1: also paying attention to the Port of Los Angeles, where
7:32
Speaker 1: the President is going today, as we think about supply
7:35
Speaker 1: chain issues and how they contribute to inflation. I love
7:38
Speaker 1: to get your thoughts because this is something you look at,
7:41
Speaker 1: your thoughts on the supply chain and kind of what
7:43
Speaker 1: you're hearing from your clients, what you're telling your clients. Absolutely,
7:48
Speaker 1: thanks for having me today. UM. You know, supply chain,
7:52
Speaker 1: it's an interesting thing. No one really thought about it
7:54
Speaker 1: before the pandemic, and then as they got disrupted and
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Speaker 1: you couldn't get what you needed on the store. Shehell
8:00
Speaker 1: of there, you had to wait months to order big equipment.
8:04
Speaker 1: It became a reality to everyday Americans, UM and everyday
8:07
Speaker 1: citizens around the globe. And what we're seeing more and
8:10
Speaker 1: more is that factories really haven't modernized and taken advantage
8:15
Speaker 1: of industry for auto technologies in a way that helps
8:18
Speaker 1: them better predict demand, better adjust in real time to
8:22
Speaker 1: disruptions like UM in availability of raw material or machines
8:27
Speaker 1: going down or labor shortages UM. And we're all about
8:30
Speaker 1: helping the manufacturing industry UM embrace at scale those technologies
8:35
Speaker 1: that are going to enable them to create more efficient
8:38
Speaker 1: and predictive supply chains. So so you're the chief Innovation
8:41
Speaker 1: officer at Deloitte Consulting, but you're also working on the
8:45
Speaker 1: smart Factory at Wichita. What is that? Absolutely? Yeah. So
8:49
Speaker 1: as a chief Innovation officer, my role is to invest in, incubate,
8:54
Speaker 1: and test and scale new businesses for our firm UM.
8:58
Speaker 1: And one of those things in involved the Smart Factory,
9:01
Speaker 1: which is a physical experience as well as a digital
9:05
Speaker 1: platform UM. The physical experiences in Whichita Kansas in conjunction
9:09
Speaker 1: with over twenty ecosystem partners that we've curated to come
9:14
Speaker 1: together to create a one of a kind industry for
9:18
Speaker 1: BATO Factory of the Future UM. And the exciting thing
9:21
Speaker 1: there is it's a real working production facility. We are
9:24
Speaker 1: making smart Rover kits um that actually we will be
9:28
Speaker 1: providing into communities UM to impact over the next four
9:32
Speaker 1: years eight hundred thousand UM young people to get interested
9:35
Speaker 1: in STEM fields. So it is a dual purpose facility
9:39
Speaker 1: where we get to demonstrate new technology of the future
9:42
Speaker 1: for industry portat oh, we get to actually manufacture and
9:45
Speaker 1: in real time have the same challenges our clients do.
9:49
Speaker 1: We get to implement a platform that connects all of
9:52
Speaker 1: the physical to the digital, and we get to impact
9:56
Speaker 1: young people and uh, you know, hopefully help with upcoming
10:00
Speaker 1: uh you know, labor challenges UM actually current labor challenges,
10:04
Speaker 1: but that we're breaking through through new techniques. Hey, Nishida
10:08
Speaker 1: is just in time inventory dead? I mean Matt Miller's
10:12
Speaker 1: gotta wait months to get a Chevy Silverado. I'm just
10:15
Speaker 1: not sure this pandemic didn't lay bare some of the
10:18
Speaker 1: real real weaknesses of just in time inventory. Yeah. Absolutely, Well,
10:23
Speaker 1: what's interesting is, you know the just in time inventory
10:27
Speaker 1: either people plan to tightly UM, they can't predict demand
10:30
Speaker 1: well enough. So you know, just in time means that
10:33
Speaker 1: you've actually made plans um several months in advance in
10:37
Speaker 1: order to make sure that inventory gets there just in time. Um.
10:40
Speaker 1: And so it's not just just in time at the
10:43
Speaker 1: end point, it's just in time all along the value chain. UM.
10:47
Speaker 1: And you know sometimes actually just listening to the morning
10:50
Speaker 1: news a few days ago, there's a lot of excess inventory.
10:52
Speaker 1: There's excess inventory of leisure clothes, right because we couldn't
10:56
Speaker 1: predict that people wouldn't want to wear leisure clothes after
10:58
Speaker 1: the pandemic. I know, I want to do many right UM.
11:01
Speaker 1: And so I think it works both ways that the
11:03
Speaker 1: incremental approaches have actually been just add more inventory, add
11:07
Speaker 1: more capacity. And we're saying, actually, no, just in time
11:10
Speaker 1: can work. But you need better data, you need better
11:12
Speaker 1: connectivity um, and you need better insights in order to
11:15
Speaker 1: make that work. And this has been the issue for
11:17
Speaker 1: Walmart and Target and everything is out of whack. When
11:21
Speaker 1: do you think the supply chain comes back in order? Now,
11:25
Speaker 1: that's a great question. I wish I could predict the future,
11:27
Speaker 1: but I think in the next um three to six months.
11:30
Speaker 1: You know, people have been UM working hard in order
11:33
Speaker 1: to get the front part of the chain working right,
11:36
Speaker 1: whether it's more raw materials, it's better core assemblies to
11:39
Speaker 1: create the end products. But I think it's going to
11:42
Speaker 1: take US, UM, you know, a couple of years to
11:44
Speaker 1: really be on this transformation journey to get to a
11:48
Speaker 1: point where disruptions like the pandemic won't cause these supply
11:51
Speaker 1: chain issues. Right, We're gonna come out of these supply
11:54
Speaker 1: chain issues because the world will be getting back to
11:56
Speaker 1: semi more normal paces. Um, even if we have continued
12:00
Speaker 1: global you know, upheavals and around geo political issues, etcetera.
12:04
Speaker 1: But we have to be able to adjust to future
12:06
Speaker 1: disruptions for which we know there will be all right, Sheeta,
12:09
Speaker 1: good stuff. Thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate
12:11
Speaker 1: getting your insights there. No, Sheeta Henry, chief Innovation Officer
12:15
Speaker 1: at de Lloyd Consulting, so much for the quiet Friday
12:22
Speaker 1: here at the beginning of summer of the CPI data
12:24
Speaker 1: kind of you know, really coming in hotter than expected
12:27
Speaker 1: all the core. Maybe you could argue the core has peaked.
12:30
Speaker 1: We'll talk about that. The University of Michigan sentiment stuff
12:33
Speaker 1: that got my attention came in much weaker than expected.
12:36
Speaker 1: So some really negative data that we're seeing reflected in
12:38
Speaker 1: the market. Of course, what do I do? I blame
12:40
Speaker 1: the economists and along chief US economists for Bloomberg's economics
12:44
Speaker 1: joints is and it's all your fault, no question about it.
12:48
Speaker 1: What do you take away from you know, the inflation
12:51
Speaker 1: data today, the University of Michigan data today. What are
12:54
Speaker 1: your takeaways? Yeah, So with inflation data, the upsides of
13:00
Speaker 1: prices UH so large that I think, uh it pushes
13:04
Speaker 1: the peak further out UM. And we could still see
13:08
Speaker 1: inflation pushing up, possibly breaching nine percent in September. So
13:14
Speaker 1: that quhes any notion that the said will be pausing
13:17
Speaker 1: in September. As anything, there's probably put the seventy five
13:21
Speaker 1: bits back on the table. But for later this year,
13:24
Speaker 1: we um and we expect now in our baseline that
13:28
Speaker 1: uh fifty bits would be in the September meeting as
13:31
Speaker 1: well as in the November meeting and the consumer sentiment report.
13:35
Speaker 1: You know, America just really hates inflation um. But that
13:39
Speaker 1: does not always translate into spending actions UM. And you
13:44
Speaker 1: know over sea from nine nationality in the inflationary sentiments
13:53
Speaker 1: and that people just feel like something is taken away
13:56
Speaker 1: from them if inflation rising, even though even if nominal
14:01
Speaker 1: wage were to uh, you know, rises on par with inflatiently,
14:05
Speaker 1: it's true because I feel that way too. Yep, absolutely,
14:08
Speaker 1: uh and uh. We were talking about the possibility of
14:11
Speaker 1: the FED raising at a quicker pace or maybe um
14:15
Speaker 1: in bigger clips seventy five basis points. Somebody suggested that
14:19
Speaker 1: that Paul was talking about earlier. So I was thinking,
14:22
Speaker 1: what's the most the FED has ever raised rates by?
14:26
Speaker 1: And I looked back, um, in the data. I only
14:29
Speaker 1: got back to when I saw that Vulcar in February
14:32
Speaker 1: of that year raised five percent at one meeting. Yeah, um,
14:37
Speaker 1: what do you expect from our Federal Reserve? Well, you know, um,
14:43
Speaker 1: Larry Summers put out a paper earlier this week showing
14:46
Speaker 1: that if you adjust to the pychnology of CPI, in fact,
14:50
Speaker 1: the amount of disinflation the FED has to do today
14:53
Speaker 1: is the same as what the Vulcar has to do.
14:56
Speaker 1: But our own team number David Wilcox looked at that
14:59
Speaker 1: and UM argue that the said actually follows PCE deflators
15:04
Speaker 1: rather than c p I, and that in that you
15:07
Speaker 1: know that measure, the PPE A deflator would show that
15:12
Speaker 1: inflation problem is half as today is half as smart
15:16
Speaker 1: as back in the looker days, which means that the
15:19
Speaker 1: said probably has to do less than the vocer compared
15:22
Speaker 1: to the vocal years. And on top of that, inflation
15:25
Speaker 1: expectations measures show that the expectations have not an anchored yet.
15:30
Speaker 1: So that also is another argument for what that does
15:34
Speaker 1: not need to do as much as Paul Boker that
15:36
Speaker 1: is and in reality and there's real tangible limits to
15:42
Speaker 1: what this feeder reserve can do visa the inflation because
15:44
Speaker 1: so much of the headline stuff was you know, energy
15:47
Speaker 1: and what I hear there's just not enough refining capacity
15:50
Speaker 1: out there in the world given the demand uh food, Um,
15:53
Speaker 1: there's not what you can do about the supply chain
15:55
Speaker 1: and maybe the war Ukraine. So there's some things that
15:57
Speaker 1: are out of the FEDS kind of you know, kind
16:00
Speaker 1: of Bailey Wick here. So, um, what kind of message
16:04
Speaker 1: when we hear from Chairman Power when he answers questions
16:07
Speaker 1: next week? What do you think we're going to hear
16:09
Speaker 1: from this FED? I think that Chairman Pow would would
16:12
Speaker 1: reiterate the lesson that they had learned last year from
16:16
Speaker 1: that mistake from not not raising rates early enough, which
16:19
Speaker 1: is that the FETs job is to affect price stability
16:23
Speaker 1: through demand channels, and they should just take all the
16:26
Speaker 1: fiscal policy and supply shocks as given, and what they
16:30
Speaker 1: could do is to keep their eyes on the wall
16:33
Speaker 1: of price stability and reduced demand in order to change uh,
16:38
Speaker 1: you know, lower places. So you said, yeah, the Fed
16:42
Speaker 1: cannot do anything about gas prices or food prices, but
16:46
Speaker 1: they can do something about inflation expectations. And even if
16:51
Speaker 1: that means that unfortunately they have to lower demand in
16:55
Speaker 1: order to cool the prices, they will have to do that. Well,
16:58
Speaker 1: the government definitely can do something about gas prices. My
17:02
Speaker 1: boss was just in the studio um telling us that
17:05
Speaker 1: he drove through Massachusetts to get to Connecticut before he
17:10
Speaker 1: filled up because they've cut the tax There any chance
17:14
Speaker 1: that this administration or state governments are gonna start doing
17:19
Speaker 1: that on mass cutting taxes. Yeah, you know, that's actually
17:24
Speaker 1: really good point. So part of the stimulus um um
17:28
Speaker 1: went into state government government budgets, and it looks like
17:32
Speaker 1: that a lot of them have not used them up yet.
17:35
Speaker 1: That's why state budgets are are actually looking very good
17:38
Speaker 1: this year. Also partly because property taxes has has has
17:42
Speaker 1: been generating a lot more revenues given given the hot
17:45
Speaker 1: housing lots. From your mouth to God's ears and along,
17:49
Speaker 1: is there any chance that I'm going to get back
17:52
Speaker 1: the state and local tax deduction stolen from me back
17:58
Speaker 1: in what was it, two thousand seventeen. I mean, I
18:01
Speaker 1: don't know how much longer I can live with these taxes. Well,
18:06
Speaker 1: you have student debts, Maybe you have students that would
18:09
Speaker 1: give you back some money. Sadly, I mean, I'm glad
18:12
Speaker 1: I don't have student debt. Um thanks to my mom,
18:15
Speaker 1: who is a professor at a Great Lakes College Association,
18:19
Speaker 1: I was granted free tuition at another Great Lakes College
18:22
Speaker 1: Association school. Um, so I'm lucky in that sense. But
18:25
Speaker 1: there's no my student debt if I had, it wouldn't
18:28
Speaker 1: be as high as my annual property taxes in Scarsdale.
18:32
Speaker 1: It's insane. Well, I'm sure you your your income would
18:37
Speaker 1: be enough to to support your spending on other areas,
18:43
Speaker 1: all right. And so we've got this inflation print here.
18:46
Speaker 1: I'm wondering about the labor side of the equation. Are
18:49
Speaker 1: we going to see you or are we seeing wage
18:52
Speaker 1: inflation here? If so, is this spiral thing? Is that
18:56
Speaker 1: a risk? Well, um, you know a lot of cost
19:00
Speaker 1: of index measures linked to nominal wage growth is index
19:06
Speaker 1: to c P I. So if the c p I is,
19:09
Speaker 1: you know, going out and continuing on upward trajectory, the
19:13
Speaker 1: kind of alarming bills that we should be looking at
19:16
Speaker 1: for For wage price FIRO is if you see wages
19:19
Speaker 1: being index two more and more, you know we wage
19:25
Speaker 1: wage contracts are index to c p i UM and
19:29
Speaker 1: uh yeah, I think, I think if if, if, if
19:32
Speaker 1: gas prices continue to be at this, at this this trajectory,
19:35
Speaker 1: even reaching one seventy per barrel or two hundred later
19:39
Speaker 1: this year, we would have a risk of expectations on
19:43
Speaker 1: anchoring generating a wage price fire. All right, good stuff.
19:47
Speaker 1: Anna Wong, chief US economists from Bloomberg Economics, PhD from
19:52
Speaker 1: the University of Chicago, love Clinis out every time it is.
19:54
Speaker 1: It's really cool because those people are wicked smat and
19:57
Speaker 1: they're very good with the numbers. And b A and
19:58
Speaker 1: Economics from Berkeley joining Sun our studios are a Wall
20:05
Speaker 1: Street reporters Shownalie Bassettionalie, I know you sat down with
20:08
Speaker 1: Goldman's sex CEO David Salomon recently. What did you two
20:12
Speaker 1: two kids talk about. Well, what's interesting is actually it's
20:14
Speaker 1: not just him. It was a Jane Fraser of City
20:16
Speaker 1: Group and David Siegel of two Sigma and Naz Dack CEO. Yeah, well,
20:20
Speaker 1: it's so fascinating. They they did an exercise with me
20:23
Speaker 1: for the thirtieth anniversary of Markets magazine to look forward
20:27
Speaker 1: Markets Magazine exactly to look forward the next thirty years.
20:30
Speaker 1: And what they really thought of is, Okay, what is
20:32
Speaker 1: in the early stages of innovation like the Internet was
20:35
Speaker 1: in the early nineties. Crypto, well, none of only keep only.
20:41
Speaker 1: David Siegel of two Sigma mentioned crypto by name. The
20:44
Speaker 1: rest had talked about digital assets a lot. Jane Fraser,
20:48
Speaker 1: the CEO of City Digital Assets. When you talk about
20:50
Speaker 1: digital assets, you're basically talking about crypto right there, talking
20:53
Speaker 1: about blockchain based assets. Blockchain based assets. Tokenization is what
20:58
Speaker 1: Jane Fraser talked about. She said this that we are
21:01
Speaker 1: moving towards a boundless virtual economy in which markets do
21:05
Speaker 1: not open or clothes and so one thing is certain,
21:09
Speaker 1: she said, will be virtual and it will be boundless.
21:11
Speaker 1: So actually, Adina Freeman of NASDAK said technology will exist
21:16
Speaker 1: for every asset on the planet to be digitized. And
21:20
Speaker 1: David Solomon, he actually talked more about energies. We can
21:23
Speaker 1: talk about that in a second, but as it pertains
21:25
Speaker 1: to blockchain. The one thing you did say is that
21:27
Speaker 1: while the technology is good for many things, it really
21:30
Speaker 1: needs to be more scalable, and scalability is one of
21:33
Speaker 1: the big challenges moving forward to see if blockchain will
21:36
Speaker 1: really be one of the main technologies of the next
21:39
Speaker 1: I just want to quickly ask about how we get
21:41
Speaker 1: hold of this. I mean, obviously, I know, being in
21:43
Speaker 1: this building, I can just grab a Bloomberg Markets magazine.
21:46
Speaker 1: But I also suspect there's an online component, because I
21:49
Speaker 1: know you have um audio at the very least of
21:53
Speaker 1: these interget I just read it on Bloomberg dot com
21:55
Speaker 1: or on the terminal. You know it's on. It's on
21:57
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg dot com. We get Marx magazine there. I
22:00
Speaker 1: never go on the website because obviously at the terminal
22:02
Speaker 1: in front of me, Yeah, these stories are online. It's
22:04
Speaker 1: it's being very well read and shared right now. We
22:07
Speaker 1: also spoke to let me mention the energy thing, guys,
22:10
Speaker 1: because we did have three out of the six c
22:12
Speaker 1: o as we speak to talk about the climate transition. Again.
22:15
Speaker 1: David Seagal, one of the greatest quantitative thinkers in the
22:18
Speaker 1: finance industry, really said that it was decarbonization technology that
22:23
Speaker 1: he was most excited about, and David Solomon with the barrel,
22:27
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know, but decarbonization like um, getting
22:32
Speaker 1: carbon out of the atmosphere, like that kind of technology
22:35
Speaker 1: the atmosphere out of corporate functions. I mean, David Solomon
22:40
Speaker 1: and David Siegel had talked about the need for more
22:42
Speaker 1: government intervention, really public private partnerships and really the government
22:46
Speaker 1: incentivizing a lot more of this. And so you just
22:48
Speaker 1: mean in general kind of clean energy you're not talking
22:50
Speaker 1: about like actually technology that removes carbon from the air,
22:54
Speaker 1: well that too, because I think that's really cool. Yes,
22:57
Speaker 1: And and by the way, you know again David Segal,
22:59
Speaker 1: great quantitative technology thinker, also talked not just about energy,
23:04
Speaker 1: but technology that can change medicine. He had some really
23:08
Speaker 1: strong language, imagine the transformation to our civilization if we
23:12
Speaker 1: could develop treatments for some of the diseases that have
23:14
Speaker 1: plagued humanity forever. All right, I'm gonna switch yours just
23:17
Speaker 1: a little bit, because but it's right in your wheelhouse.
23:19
Speaker 1: This week, I think I saw my first headline about
23:22
Speaker 1: Wall Street cutting head count because business is so bad,
23:25
Speaker 1: And it was just six months ago. Literally six months
23:28
Speaker 1: ago when you couldn't hire enough, didn't I tell you
23:31
Speaker 1: you could people They were raising to pay for these
23:34
Speaker 1: guys every couple of months. But I mean, markets are tough,
23:38
Speaker 1: and the first quarter and second quarter P and L
23:40
Speaker 1: is not going to look good for these companies. However,
23:42
Speaker 1: people are hiring in technology because they need to keep
23:46
Speaker 1: up with the pace of innovation and thousands of people
23:48
Speaker 1: at City Group, for example, And when I actually that's
23:51
Speaker 1: good because there's a bunch of people who thought they
23:54
Speaker 1: were going to go work at coin Base and had
23:57
Speaker 1: their offers rescinded, So where can they go? City? Yeah? Seriously,
24:02
Speaker 1: But yeah, things are getting tougher out there, that is
24:05
Speaker 1: for sure. That's gonna be something to follow as we
24:07
Speaker 1: come up with the second quarter numbers. What they're thinking about,
24:10
Speaker 1: what pay and headcount because literally six months ago there
24:14
Speaker 1: was no ceiling on either of those things. Now it's
24:16
Speaker 1: just so just amazing how quickly it turns. And having
24:19
Speaker 1: lived on the street for many years, I've experienced the
24:22
Speaker 1: interns that started this week, by the way, everywhere on
24:26
Speaker 1: wall everywhere, Wall Street, Okay, okay, with college kids, good
24:30
Speaker 1: good stuff, good stuff. It's a good uh cycle. There
24:33
Speaker 1: Shanellie Basket, Wall Street porter for Bloomberg News. Thanks for
24:37
Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and
24:41
Speaker 1: listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform
24:45
Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt
24:48
Speaker 1: Miller three. Put on ball Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at
24:52
Speaker 1: pt Sweeney before the podcast. You can always catch us
24:55
Speaker 1: worldwide at Bloomberg Radio