Latest / Man in America Podcast / HUGE! Michael Burry Just Bet $1.6B AGAINST Stock Market… Here’s What it Means

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HUGE! Michael Burry Just Bet $1.6B AGAINST Stock Market… Here’s What it Means · Man in America Podcast

• 1:33
  Seth Holehouse: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Man in America. I'm your host, Seth Holehouse. Have you seen the big short? So if you haven't, I highly, highly recommend watching it. So it's a movie when this guy named Michael Burry, basically decodes.
• 1:50
  He's he's this genius financial guy. He figures out what's happening with the housing market in 02/2008, and he places what's referred to as a big short on the housing market, which means that he basically bets almost all of his clients' money. We're talking, like, I think, hundreds of millions of dollars. He bets against the housing market, so that if the housing market collapses, he makes a ton of money. But the housing market doesn't collapse, he loses everything.
• 2:19
  And so he was the only person at that time that saw what was coming with the housing market. And we all know how that story unfolded as we went from 02/2008, thousand '9, etc. So he just made, I think, a even more significant bet that like eclipses what he did with the housing market in 02/2008. That is gonna blow your mind. And to me, it really really has me thinking.
• 2:47
  Okay, what does he know that I don't know because there's something big that he's seeing that I think most people aren't seeing. So joining us today to talk about this and figure out what it means is Doctor. Kirk Elliott. So folks enjoy the interview. Kirk, man, it is great to have you on as usual.
• 3:07
  How you doing, man?
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: I'm doing awesome. How are you, Seth?
• 3:11
  Seth Holehouse: Actually good. I'm in the new studio and finally kind of getting over like the big hump of moving and just strangely, or maybe not strangely, but just just optimistic. There's like there's everything is kind of going crazy and you've got like Hawaii that's like, you know, being burned down so the elites can buy up all the land and this kind of wild stuff like that. There's this, this sense of calm somehow amidst it all.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it is there is some crazy stuff happening. I mean, I know we had talked right before the show about some interesting stuff, like really hot off the presses within the last hour. But before we jump into that, I mean, there's some things that we've been talking about for months now, this Durbin Accord meeting that comes up next Tuesday. So August 22, they're meeting, right? And so what's interesting about all of this is for months, you and I have talked about how based on a July 7 basically memorandum from Russia on the Russian owned Russian Times from the embassy in Moscow, they said that we're excited about the BRICS common currency that's going to be backed by gold.
• 4:36
  So that's been the speculation. It's going to be backed by gold, which actually makes sense, right? Because Russia and China are the two largest gold mining countries in the world. And then when you add India and South Africa, number 13 and number 14 in the world. So out of the BRICS nations, you've got number one, number two, number 13, number 14, right?
• 5:00
  But now they're adding all these other nations into the mix. So this actually had a monkey wrench put into it last week when Putin, and we don't know if Putin's lying, if he's misdirecting, if he's telling the truth, if he's trying to cause collapse, he's trying to make himself look better, who knows, right? But what we do know about Putin is he wants everything that he says is calculated to make himself look better or win, right? So last week he said, we're not quite ready for this BRICS common currency backed by gold, so therefore here's my alternative. I want to actually have all of the BRICS nations trade with their own currencies, right?
• 5:41
  So what is that going to do? It's going to build up all of the currencies in those BRICS nations because there's going to be built in demand for it if you're getting rid of the US dollar. Because The US Dollar used to be used for international settlements. That was the reserve currency status. So in one time, it decreases the value of the dollar, increases the value of these other currencies.
• 6:02
  It's like immediate death to the dollar, right? If Putin gets his way, rather than a slow death, which is a BRICS common currency backed by gold. Now, immediate death to the dollar, slow death to the dollar, Putin probably wants an immediate one. But what is the net result of all of this? No matter which one of those happens, the end result is gold and silver go through the roof.
• 6:27
  Number one, if you have BRICS common currency backed by gold, so much demand for gold that it just absolutely soars, so does silver. The other one is now there's no demand for the US dollar, which means we're going to have to print our way out of it. Those inflationary pressures, gold and silver, respond very good, quickly to inflation. So the end result on either one of those scenarios is gold or silver going through the roof. One of them kills the dollar slowly.
• 6:57
  That's a BRICS currency backed by gold. The other one kills the dollar quickly. Get rid of the opposition quicker by having all international settlements between BRICS nations, which is 73% of the world's population tied up in the US dollar. So there's no longer that tie to the US dollar with no more international settlements. So complete decoupling.
• 7:20
  This is going to be wild and wacky. This happens next week, this meeting does. So just this morning, though, I was reading a report about the Russian economy. And it's like, oh, bingo. This is why Putin said what he did, because the ruble has lost 30% of its value against the US dollar just since January.
• 7:45
  Their economy is in shambles, just in shambles, seventeen month low. Right? So he's got to do something quickly, like not wait to build the value of the ruble. Well, how better way to do it than have all BRICS nations trading back and forth with their own currencies and dismantling the dollar. Because by default, then the dollar gets weakened, the Russian currency looks better without anything else happening.
• 8:17
  But they want theirs to look better as well, which is why the built in demand for their currencies through these multilateral trade agreements is going to be a big deal for them. So another thing that is going to be accomplished next week, the twenty second, is this. They're going to de weaponize the US dollar. See, Biden tried to So every president, not just Biden, but they Since we've had the reserve currency status, we've been trying to weaponize the US dollar. Meaning what?
• 8:48
  Meaning when all international settlements are traded in our currency as the world reserve currency, we have a lot of pull politically and economically. And we can put economic sanctions like what we did on Russia during the Ukraine conflict, right? It's like, no, we're going to stop all of your trade. We're going to kick you out of the SWIFT system. They've been doing this for political reasons decade after decade after decade ever since 1944.
• 9:14
  So when the BRICS nations meet, what are they going to do? If they get their way and they have this common currency with 73% of the world's population now backing it, they just, for all intents and purposes, de weaponized the US dollar. They took our teeth out. And it's going to be very uneventful, any kind of sanctions that we have put on places because we're no longer the reserve currency. See, this is economic warfare at its finest, right?
• 9:44
  I mean, it's really they're playing this well. And in doing this, banks are collapsing. Our credit rating as a country is diminishing. People are running scared about the stock market, thinking the stock market's going decline. The bond market's declining as interest rates rise.
• 10:02
  Now OPEC is basically cutting production of oil at a time when they know that we have to start buying oil like there's no tomorrow because Biden almost eliminated our strategic oil reserves. So now we have to buy it. They're cutting production, so we have to pay a higher price. It's like if you could write a textbook on how to win an economic war, look at what China and Russia are doing. And if you wrote a textbook on how to lose one, look at what Biden's doing and follow it to the T because he truly it's like, oh my word, it's like, could you make any more bad decisions?
• 10:40
  And it's like, the answer is not really. I mean, sadly, he's doing a really bad job, whether it's designed or not designed. The US is losing its status. It's the world's reserve currency as this is all moving. But with that, Seth, comes a lot of internal domestic mayhem, stock market collapses, bond market collapses, real estate hitting the skids.
• 11:06
  I mean, we're seeing absolute bloodbath on most of the markets right now.
• 11:12
  Seth Holehouse: And what's really crazy about the timing of this, because you and I have been talking, especially about this upcoming BRICS meeting, And it just looks like there's this perfect storm brewing. And it was just today, and I'll pull up think I'll pull up some Twitter, you know, kind of, you know, kind of searches about this. But so Michael Burry. Right? So he is the guy that was I forget I forgot I forget who played him in the big short.
• 11:44
  I don't if that's irrelevant.
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: Was it Christian Bale?
• 11:46
  Seth Holehouse: Yes. Christian Bale. Yeah. You go. I know the face.
• 11:49
  I couldn't put a name to it. So for for all the people that are watching or listening, a, if you haven't seen The Big Short, I'd go watch it. It's just it's it's a phenomenal movie. It's such a good movie. But, basically, what it is is is this guy Michael Burry is based upon a true story.
• 12:06
  This guy Michael Burry that is really like a super genius. I mean, you know, this guy's like on on the spectrum, you know, they'd say. He saw the 02/2008 collapse before nobody else did. And what he did is he basically he was managing a fund. He took almost all of the funds money, and he bet it against basically placed a bet.
• 12:28
  And I'll let you explain this because I'm not a stock guy, but this is my kind of five year old brain understanding of the stock market. He placed this giant bet with all of his clients money. They're really upset saying that I'm gonna bet that the housing market collapses. And if it does, I'm gonna make a lot of money. And if it doesn't, I'm gonna lose all my clients money.
• 12:49
  Well, we all know what happened, and he made like an insane amount of money. And so that was his that was his really claim to fame. Everyone's really since that movie, I think especially, I'm on the mainstream, people have been following. Okay. What's Michael Burry betting on?
• 13:03
  What's what's he doing with his money? So this just came out today, and I'll pull up this. This is on Twitter. If you search for Michael Burry, so he basically just placed that same bet against the entire stock market. Like he basically put almost I think it was like 1,600,000,000.0 that he that he basically bet against the stock market.
• 13:29
  That is about 93% of the money that he manages that he put a short, it's called a leveraged short against the NASDAQ and the S and P. So I mean, Kirk, I'll read through this display text really quickly right here and you can kind of explain it. So like right here saying, okay, what does Michael Burry know? They're saying that Michael Burry has gone big on betting against the market. 890,000,000 in SPY puts and 740,000,000 in QQQ puts.
• 14:03
  It's a whopping 93% of his total portfolio. So help us understand what you think he's doing and what he sees that obviously the rest of the market doesn't see.
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: Okay, so a little bit of definition of terms, right? So what's a short? Right? So a short is, or a short position, is when a trader like Burry sells a security first with then the intention of repurchasing it or covering it later at a lower price. So they're expecting the price to go down.
• 14:37
  So they sell it first and then they have the option to buy it later at a lower price so they can make a ton of money, right? His are leveraged, right? So the interesting thing about a put is so a short doesn't necessarily have a duration to it. It can be forever. But a put is an option.
• 14:58
  It has an expiration date. Now we don't know what the expiration date is on this put, right? It's leveraged, sometimes highly leveraged, and it has an ending thirty, sixty, ninety days, whatever down the road, right? So the fact that it's a put and not just a short tells us that he's expecting something big to probably happen pretty soon, would be my guess. So when would Burry do this, right?
• 15:28
  Or any trader that's actually issuing a short position. They're going to decide to short a security when he or she believes that the price of that security is likely to decrease in the near future. Now, there's two kinds of shorts. You've got a naked short, but that's kind of illegal in The US for equities. It's banned fully in India and other countries, right?
• 15:55
  That's when a trader can sell a security without having possession of it. So they can sell something that they don't even own. Now, the central bank can actually do naked shorts, right? Which is crazy. So can other banks.
• 16:09
  But investors really can't. So here's where a covered short just means that a trader is borrowing the shares from the stock loan department at their firm. And in return, the trader pays a borrowing rate during that time that the short position is in place. So they own these equities. They're saying, I'm going to pay you money, Merrill Lynch or whoever they're doing it from, to basically rent these for a bit.
• 16:39
  And then I'm going to buy them back at a lower price down the road. So that's what Burry is doing. But except his is even weirder, because an option expires worthless. It's not just if you bought a short and it actually kept going up and up and up in price, it's like, oh man, it's going to take me forever to cover the short because it has to come down. And so then the firm does margin calls, right?
• 17:05
  And it's like, Okay, you're in the wrong direction. You've got to pay up here. So that can be very dangerous. But a put is an option that has an expiration date. And you could miss the expiration by a day, literally by a day.
• 17:20
  And you expire worthless and all of your money goes away. Right?
• 17:25
  Seth Holehouse: So it's like, let's just say, he took $101,600,000,000 It's like him, you know, kind of saying, taking $1,600,000,000 and saying, I'm gonna I'm gonna bet $1,600,000,000 that the S and P and the Nasdaq will, let's say, will drop by 20% within the next thirty days, hypothetically. Yeah. Right? And so say they do drop that, then he might make a billion dollars. But if they don't, he loses all that money.
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: All of it. So like, for example, today the S and P 500 is at 44.76. So maybe he put a put option on it saying sixty days from now, whatever he did, said, I'm going to buy the S and P 500 at four thousand. I'm expecting it come down 10%, right? Or the NASDAQ today is at 13,700.
• 18:21
  Maybe said, Okay, thirty days from now, I have a put option at $13,000 I get to buy it, right? They're basically just betting that it's going to go down and then they buy it up at that price. But if he had a sixty day put and it got today 61 and the S and P 500 didn't get down to 4,000, like you said it was, it actually expires absolutely worthless. All of that 1,600,000,000.0 that he put into it goes away, Right? So they're watching this like a hawk and they're going to try to sell it on any kind of gains that they have, meaning they'll sell off pieces of it as it comes down.
• 19:01
  I mean, who knows what they're going to have to be doing? But if it goes in the wrong direction, they're toast, absolutely toast, and it'll just expire worthless. So he's going to have to bet over 90% of the firm's capital. That's a big move. I mean, no wonder they made a movie after him called The Big Short, right?
• 19:21
  Because I don't know what analytics he's looking at, but he's probably looking at the same stuff that we are. Lowering wages, lowering incomes, raising taxes, rising interest rates, political chaos, geopolitical conflict, all of this stuff that's happening. It's like there's no way that actually the stock market can keep propped up, but it can with stimulus money, right? Where do they get stimulus money? Because we've had built in demand for our currency with petrodollar and things like that.
• 19:55
  But now with the BRICS nations meeting next week and all these other multilateral trade agreements and what we started the show with Putin saying, you know what, I think we're going to have all the BRICS nations trade back and forth with their own currency and have no currency for the US dollar being traded, we're going to have to print our way out of it. There's not going to be enough money to really bail out the market to stimulus money. They've got other things to worry about, like bailing out the country from going into default. So he might be onto something really big here that we're talking about from a fundamental standpoint, like the realities, the things, the legislative actions, the policy initiatives that cause anything to move. He's looking at it from a technical standpoint.
• 20:42
  And now these technicals, where we are on a chart, is it overvalued? Is it undervalued? Is it overbought? Is it oversold? Right?
• 20:50
  And it's like they're now converging with fundamental analysis. And truly, this might be like the biggest short of all the big shorts. If he's betting over a billion dollars on the stock market as a whole coming down, But it does, right? And so you've also got a time in the year during October where the markets always come down, right? It's like the October surprise, right?
• 21:15
  It's what they call it. Well, because the end of the fiscal year for the US government is the September. Well, that's going to come up in the next ninety days or so. So what we don't know is how long these put options are. But there's always a collapse in October because I think psychologically, people look at the budget of The United States and say, oh my word, we can't afford any of this.
• 21:35
  I'm just not going to invest for right now because I don't know how this is all going to turn out. But it happens like every October, which means they should just take the word surprise out of it, just stink and call it October, right? Because the markets always come down at some point during October as the reality sits in that the government's running out of money, that we're spending too much money, that we don't have enough revenues coming in. It's just a bad time of the year. So what he is saying is everything that we've been talking about, he put action to it and actually shorted over 90% of his firm's capital.
• 22:18
  For him, this is a sure thing.
• 22:21
  Seth Holehouse: Yeah, which is just insane to think about that. It's like, it's like how confident are you that x is going to happen? Well, I'm gonna put over almost $2,000,000,000 on that. So I've actually I've got a short video that I wanna play it's about a little over a minute long where someone else is explaining this, this little explainer video. So this is this should be helpful as well.
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: So big short investor Michael Burry just got his positions revealed. Breaking Michael Burry had just updated his portfolio up to June 30. Nearly 51% of it is in spy puts, and another 42.5% of his portfolio is in QQQ puts. So what does this mean? It means that Michael Berry is expecting a big drop in the markets across the board.
• 23:07
  Even if you think the stock market is gonna crash fast, I mean, putting, like, 90% of your portfolio in the puts is just unheard of. He had his big break, his big breakthrough through credit swaps in the market. But when you just have straight up puts on the market, you're losing value every single day. It's called data decay and options contracts. So if the stock market goes up, he's gonna lose money.
• 23:32
  If the stock market stays still, he's going to lose money. The only way that Michael Burry can come out green on this and make a bag is if the stock market crashes entirely. And, yes, he has done it before, but he also says the market's gonna crash every single year. Drop a follow to see more like this, and let me know what you guys think.
• 23:54
  Seth Holehouse: So, again, interesting. Right? I I always appreciate hearing this little TikTok videos that kind of wrap it all up like that. But, you know, yeah. So again, is is he as the guy said, I guess he's oftentimes warning that things are gonna collapse, which, you know, I've had a lot of guests on here like Aaron Brickman who've come on and said, look, so many indicators are pointing towards collapse.
• 24:16
  And it's when it doesn't collapse, like, don't think that's because they were so wrong. I just felt that there's certain things that keep extending. It just feels like there's something that's extending some sort of timeline. But him coming out in the past, say he came out a year ago and said, hey, things are gonna really crash this October. That's different than him putting, you know, $1,600,000,000 on the line.
• 24:42
  I mean, this is this will be this this will be interesting to track what happens with this because that's a that's a major, major, major move. And honestly, it makes me happy that I'm not a stock guy. It's like I've got no money in stocks or any of that stuff because I mean, part of me is because I think it's all rigged. The other thing is that I just never got into it. You know?
• 25:02
  It just was never my thing.
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: I mean, how sure would you have to be on anything, Seth, to put like 92% of everything that you own on the line? Exactly. Right? It's like that's imagine that. So I mean, that's a gambling mentality, right?
• 25:24
  It's like, Okay, I'm going to Vegas. I've got $5,000 left to my name. I'm putting all 5,000 on red. I mean, how sure are you? Well, you can only be 50% sure.
• 25:36
  It's either black or red, right? It's like, it's a big bet. He's putting billions of people's money on the line. He's got to be really, really, really sure. And he's a smart guy, right?
• 25:50
  So he's probably looking at the same things that we are looking at maybe the exhaustion of the markets. They're just overbought. There's people aren't spending very much money right now. And he's looking at it. But I think he's got to know something else.
• 26:07
  He's got to have something else figured out, possibly part of the BRICS meeting, possibly part of whatever the other international community has up their sleeves. Maybe the move towards central bank digital currency. Maybe in the world that he lives in, he knows of more banks that might be failing, right? I mean, I don't know. But to me, unless I knew for sure, for sure, for sure, for sure, wouldn't be putting 92% of a couple billion dollar portfolio into anything.
• 26:40
  Right? I mean, so he's got to be really, really certain because he's dealing with short term put options. It's not like, for example, when we invest in gold or silver, it doesn't have an expiration date. I know that the stock market's coming down. I know that we've got political changes coming.
• 27:01
  But it's not like, okay, it better go up by two weeks from now or else everybody loses everything. No. It's a hold, right? As things get worse and worse and worse, gold and silver do better, which is why over the last six months, silver's up over 40%. Over the last three years, silver's up over 100.
• 27:19
  Which why we go into things that don't have an expiration, that don't have that kind of point of no return, right? Because sometimes markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay rational, right? Which is why I would never do any kind of a put or a call option because it has an expiration date. I don't control the markets. I'm not God, right?
• 27:49
  So that's why if I don't control anything, it's like, I don't know what somebody else is going to do. But if you don't have an automatic duration on it, which is, by the way, what central bank digital currencies are going to do with programmable money. I mean, imagine this. So programmable money, they can put a time expiration date on your money. So let's say, Seth, you've worked really, really hard.
• 28:14
  You've saved up for a rainy day. You have this retirement, you have it sitting in your brokerage account or your bank account. It's like, hey, Seth, you know that $100 you got that you've been storing up forever, you know, for the last twenty, thirty years, this $100? It's like, you've got to spend all of it by December 31 because it's going to expire worthless. It's like, what?
• 28:33
  That's my rainy day fund. That's my retirement. I was going to live on that the rest of my life. Well, if the government really wants to stimulate the economy, they force everybody to spend all of their money. Oh, sure.
• 28:45
  That would stimulate the economy. But on January 1, the next day, it's like, now you've got nothing. Now you're completely dependent on them for the credit and debit system for you to survive. See, what the banks are doing is not much different than what is doing, right? Is putting a put option on the time frame of your money.
• 29:09
  I mean, this crazy. This wild stuff. Now, I wouldn't do what Burry is doing. 100% not, right? Because I'm a conservative investor, but this guy really is good at what he's doing.
• 29:22
  And I don't know what he's seeing. I don't know what, because he hasn't exposed his hand, right? He hasn't said, I know that these things are happening. All I know is that for him to put 92% plus of a multibillion dollar portfolio on the fact that the stock market, not just one of them, but the NASDAQ and the S and P five hundred are coming down, Also makes me wonder, why didn't he choose the Dow? Why didn't he pick the S and P five hundred and the NASDAQ?
• 29:53
  It's because they're broader indexes. It's kind of easy to manipulate the Dow because it's only 30 stocks. So if you had hedge funds or governments or central banks that wanted to pretend like the stock market was doing well, you only have to put money into 30 stocks. If it's the S and P five hundred, you've got to inject money into 500 of. If it's the NASDAQ one hundred, you've got 100, right?
• 30:15
  So what he's doing is placing his bets that the Dow can easily be or more easily be manipulated because it's only 30 stocks. These more broad based indexes, he knows it's really hard to manipulate the broader because it becomes very expensive. So I think there's calculation behind what he's thinking. And he knows like you and I know, the government manipulates things. They lie about things, right?
• 30:40
  But it's hard to do that with the law of large numbers, which is why I believe he's shorting the two things that he did.
• 30:48
  Seth Holehouse: And there's a few interesting tidbits. One is that The Big Short, I've watched it probably half a dozen times. It's a really enjoyable movie. But you can see that everything that he did in that, which I believe was was real, representative of what he did in real life, was so calculated. Like, this is a guy that sees things in ones and zeros.
• 31:08
  He doesn't he's not emotional. He's not, you know, a gambler from the perspective of like, I'm feeling red today. This guy is is a, you know, he's like, almost like autistic level genius. And you can see in that that that film that his actions are based on massive amounts of data that he's taken in and he's drawn conclusions from like strong conclusions to enough that he was willing to risk all that. Now one question I do have, because I know that okay.
• 31:38
  So if you're looking at what happened in 02/2008, right, where we had the the collapse of the real estate market, which then, you know, kind of rippled over into the stock market, you know, everything kind of followed with that. Now this is something that's more significant. Like saying, okay, think the housing market's gonna fail, versus I think the stock market is gonna fail. Those are two big differences. The stock market's a much bigger indicator of the the economy than than just the the housing market, which is just a slice of that.
• 32:10
  So when 02/2008 happened, because you are know, you've been doing gold and silver for a long time. What happened? So when we saw February, we saw the stocks plummeting, we saw housing market plummeting, all that what happened to gold and silver because that to me, like that's a very helpful example, historical example to look at, to maybe give us a little bit of understanding of like, what could, if what we believe Michael thinks will happen happens, what happens to those of us that have chosen to hedge against these types of things by this putting our money into something safe like precious metals?
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: Well, it's really interesting because gold and silver always act as a flight for safety. Right? And I remember, within two years after that, silver had gone from $12 to $48 an ounce. That's a massive gain, because $24 is doubling, and then it doubles again to $48 right? So it was like well over 300% during that time frame.
• 33:14
  And extreme, but gold was moving up too quite a bit, right? Because so you're looking at 02/2009 to 2011 were massive, massive for gold and silver, right? Where after 02/2009, it took like eight years just for the stock markets to break even from that loss, right? And we have to look at that was just the housing sector, right? So we've had collapses in the past.
• 33:45
  We had tech stock bubble in February, which was an 80% correction, and it took like nine years to recover from that. We saw 02/2009, which was like a 40% correction, took like eight years, but that was just subprime lending. That was just people getting loans that shouldn't have gotten loans for houses, and it had the spider web effect to the other markets. This one that we're seeing right now is an everything bubble. It's a debt based bubble, and it'll impact the bond market, impacts the stock market, it impacts real estate, it impacts treasuries and other countries that own other treasuries, right?
• 34:21
  We're dealing with an everything bubble that's not just sector based. That's why this one is so big and so different than I wouldn't just say that it's a correction, right? So like if right? Or a crash, right? So if driving a car and you get in an accident, you had a crash, right?
• 34:46
  So what happens? Somebody calls the ambulance, cops show up, they pull you out, take you to the hospital, they move the car off the interstate, boom, it's fixed. So a crash has kind of an immediate fix. A correction is a little bit longer term. A collapse would be like nineeleven, like the towers get hit by an airplane, they come crashing down.
• 35:10
  You've got rubble on the roads and on the streets, and it takes years to clean up from that. So I think what we're seeing is different than basically a crash, which is more immediate, or a correction, which is a little bit more long term. I think what we're seeing right now is a collapse of the equity markets and bond markets as we see, because it's a debt based bubble. And it's going to take a long time to actually clean up after that, rebuild what came crashing down, restructure, make it better, which is why I think the powers that be, the banking rulers and regulators, are bringing in a central bank digital currency to clean up the mess in their own way after this collapse. But that's not the way we want it to be cleaned up.
• 36:03
  That's actually worse the problem because it takes away all of your freedom.
• 36:09
  Seth Holehouse: So Kirk, actually, I found So here's This is a showing. This is the gold price. You know what happened with the gold price over the past twenty years. So you can see, you know, as it goes over 02/2008, it was at around a thousand bucks, right 900 to a thousand dollars. So you can see within the first, say, nine months after the crash, it lost value.
• 36:34
  Right? So it like it was down 30%. But then by the time you got up to say entering into say 2011, it hit almost 1,900. So gold went so, you know, 02/2008
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: It doubled.
• 36:48
  Seth Holehouse: To 02/2011, it doubled. Now then silver, it's crazy. So silver has had this massive spike where you can see again, 02/2008 hits. It went from at a peak, you know, early two thousand eight, looks like it was at about like $21 an ounce. Okay?
• 37:05
  Now in the immediate, say, eight months after that, it dropped to looks like around $10. But then over the course of the next, say, two years, it spiked up to you, as you said, $48 to $48.58. So you're right. I mean, so from right when the the crash happened dropped down and spiked at the $48.58. I mean, what what, you know, what I make of this, looking at those those two charts of silver and gold is that when that initial collapse or that crash happens, everything retracts.
• 37:38
  Right? But then it's like, okay, but what happens if you were to chart real estate prices the same way, or to start your chart, you know, stock market, right, what you see is I think that everything collapses, then people, you know, it's not like on day one, everyone moves over into precious metals as a safe haven. I imagine it's a process of a couple of months, a couple of months, but then things reestablish. And then you see this this massive spike in in precious metals, which I also I think that Michael Burry's also talked and tweeted about precious metals as well. I know that some of the other big people that I follow have is, you know, so anyway, just interesting to see, you know, again, him placing this move is is massive.
• 38:21
  What it means, how it ties into bricks and inflation and all the different stuff. I just think that honestly, next probably two to three months, I think will probably be very eventful to say the least.
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: I would say so. And you know, that's always whenever you have something of that magnitude, people get scared. It's like, I'm just going to sit on the sideline for just a bit. I don't really know what to do right now. And so that's why you kind of see the contraction and everything.
• 38:52
  But it didn't take very long for reality to set in and say, oof, we need something that's strong. We need something that's transparent. We need something that there's accountability to. And that's when you saw it in gold, you saw it in silver, you didn't see it in the stock market. It took a long time because that's what collapsed.
• 39:13
  It took a long time for people to regain confidence in that because people lost their fortunes. So this is where money moves when there's change. Money moves when there's chaos. Money moves when there's uncertainty. And that's the era that we're moving into, like right now, right underneath our nose.
• 39:34
  But you know what, we don't have to operate in fear. We don't have to be paralyzed by it. Sitting in cash on the sideline is different this time than it was last time. Because now you've got banks failing, right? We didn't have that back in 02/2009.
• 39:50
  So you can't use the same, Okay, I'm just going to put all my money in cash, sit on the sideline, wait for these markets to correct. No. I mean, you still need a little bit in cash, right? But you should not over allocate into cash when banks are failing too. It's like, that's why you go into silver and take advantage of those kinds of trends, that flight for safety and that growth and asset preservation that we'll see during that time.
• 40:17
  And truly, can have a smile on your face because you are going to thrive.
• 40:21
  Seth Holehouse: It also makes me think too, and I'm like, look at this as a personal lesson, is if the stock market crashes, and I see silver go from say, $23 an ounce down to $15 an ounce. Like I need to be like Mel Gibson and Braveheart like hold, right? Hold. Just hold. Don't don't give into that fear and try to get out of it.
• 40:44
  It's actually that's the time to be buying. It's like, if anything, I'm thinking, okay, maybe that's the time to, of course, you want to stock up. But maybe that's gonna be an opportune time for the people that that do have the money, right, to do that. So Kirk, if folks want to get ahold of you for to, you know, whether they're doing an IRA transfer or direct purchase, what's the best way they can do that?
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: Well, they can either go to the link.
• 41:13
  Seth Holehouse: GoldWithSeth. GoldWithSeth Com.
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: Right. And that comes right to our website. That way, you know, when it's attached to you, I'll know exactly what we were talking about. My team of advisors will know exactly what we are talking about so we can help you navigate through this. Or you can simply call us at (720) 605-3900.
• 41:37
  That's (720) 605-3900. Just say that Seth sent you, right? And so those are the only two ways. I know that there's people that imitate me on the Internet, misspell my last name, set up fake websites. It's like, nope, kirk elliottphd dot com, two L's and two T's, or our phone number.
• 42:02
  I'm not going to ever, ever, ever give out my personal email. So if you see something on a Rumble chat, for example, that has my personal email, that's not me. I don't give that one out. So don't fall for it. Right?
• 42:16
  So anyways, just call us or go to that form, goldwithseth.com. It's the only two ways to get to us.
• 42:25
  Seth Holehouse: Great. And so one thing, a quick announcement in general. I know that we're planning a a live q and a show pretty soon here within the next couple of weeks. I was on the phone with Ashley recently talking this over. So so because I know a lot of people, they have a lot of questions, and they're they're oftentimes very detailed questions.
• 42:44
  It might be, you know, Kirk, I've got I owe 200,000 on my mortgage. I've got a hundred thousand in this, and I've got an IRA with this much. You know, if I did x, y, and z, what would that look like? So that and I know that, you know, it's not always easy to call in and get your ear because you've got that's why you've got a fantastic team of advisors because you can't talk to every single person that calls in. So that's why we wanna set up what is, you know, probably do like a monthly live show together where people can just hop on
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: Oh, great.
• 43:13
  Seth Holehouse: And just ask their questions. Ask the specific questions and say, Kirk, what about gold backs? What about, you know, this? What you know, should I buy you know, what about these fancy, you know, sealed, you know, golden eagles that are, you know, 3,000 or whatever the questions are. It does give folks an opportunity to engage with you.
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: Oh, my word. I look so I I actually just love live q and a's. Because a lot of people will do Q and As, but they're always curated questions, and they will only answer the ones that they want to answer. I don't roll like that. I'll answer your questions live.
• 43:52
  And it's like, sometimes you get crazy questions. Sometimes they're amazing. Sometimes But you know what? They're your questions, and I want to answer them. So I love these.
• 44:01
  I just love them. And I would love to do that every single month. Perfect. Just get it done. Great.
• 44:07
  Because people have questions. Everybody has different questions because they're a different part of life. Some are young, some are old, some need income, some need growth, some are about to retire, some are in retirement, some just had spouses died, they're scared, they don't know what to do. There's an answer to everything, and we can help you together figure that out.
• 44:29
  Seth Holehouse: Perfect. Perfect. All right. So folks, goldwithseth.com or (720) 605-3900. it's always great having you on.
• 44:42
  I'm I'm I'm really excited to get do a live show with you as well. I think that we're gonna have a lot of fun. We'll probably end up being like a two hour show. So I hope that you can clear, know, when we're ready for that, your schedule is open because I have feeling we're gonna have a lot of questions coming in.
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: It'll be great. I'm looking forward to it.
• 44:59
  Seth Holehouse: Alright. Thank you so much, Kirk. Take care, man. We'll see you.