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Outsmart Your Leaguemates on the Week 2 Waiver Wire · BDGE Fantasy Football

0:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Good morning friends and enemies.
0:02
[SPEAKER_00]: It is a big day to want to drop some $5 on the Cleveland Browns.
0:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Never thought I'd say that, but thus this is fantasy football.
0:10
[SPEAKER_00]: We are heading into week two, and this is the waiver wire show, which will be going live every single Tuesday.
0:14
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you want to hear me happen about the waiver wire,
0:17
[SPEAKER_00]: make sure you subscribe to the channel.
0:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Here's how we break down these videos.
0:20
[SPEAKER_00]: We jump into the trending tab, right?
0:22
[SPEAKER_00]: And I kind of slowly talk through all the players that have been widely picked up and adopted throughout most leagues.
0:28
[SPEAKER_00]: And then we look at the trending down tab of the players.
0:31
[SPEAKER_00]: And we'll talk about guys that I think you should continue to hold onto.
0:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Guys that you should drop in order to make room for the top pickups.
0:37
[SPEAKER_00]: As the video progresses, I will be giving you some fab suggestions, some some light fab here, some light fab there telling you around how much I would drop on the specific players that I talk about and it depends on your league, it depends on your situation, it depends on how many fab dollars you have all those types of things.
0:53
[SPEAKER_00]: As always, every single season, we do have a full waiver wire rankings tool up on our website on bdge.co.
1:00
[SPEAKER_00]: If you are a big dog member, you get access to the waiver wire rankings which have more concise write-ups on all these players.
1:05
[SPEAKER_00]: It has the full rankings list of them in order of which guys I would prioritize.
1:09
[SPEAKER_00]: The fab suggestion for them and in that membership, of course, you get
1:12
[SPEAKER_00]: my normal weekly rankings, which go live every Wednesday, get access to a private Q and A where you could ask my sit starts on Sunday morning, going forward, all that good stuff, right?
1:21
[SPEAKER_00]: So BDE.co, you could sign up to be a big dog member.
1:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's get into the waiver wire.
1:25
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll start at the running back position and we'll just work our way down the list here.
1:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm obviously going to exclude anyone that's like, you know,
1:32
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't have to talk about Juvanta Williams owned in 81% of leagues like literally what is this sleeper?
1:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Ash and Jantin Jemere Gibbs are on the list cool, but you should pick up Jemere Gibbs if he's available.
1:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Kind of game well, Pittsburgh running back, led the team in Snapshare in week one.
1:47
[SPEAKER_00]: over Jalen Warren, but produced in typical kind of game well-fashioned.
1:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Overall, I'm not going to waste our time here.
1:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Game well's a dude that's going to continue to play, and maybe get a few targets per week, but we know the kind of game will experience.
1:58
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a dude who's been the league now for five years and has never had a season over, like 350 rushing yards, and like 250 receiving yards, or maybe flip that vice versa regardless.
2:06
[SPEAKER_00]: He's never going to be a guy that you want to throw into your fantasy line up, and I think,
2:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Caleb Johnson is going to continue to see increased opportunity and eventually get a role in this offense, but yeah, we're not spending any serious dollars on Kenneth Gainwell, but we do have to talk about Dylan Samson who came away as a huge winner from week one, really overtook Jerome Ford for the starting role there.
2:26
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, over the second half of the game, he was completely the back in that backfield, right?
2:30
[SPEAKER_00]: And then up with eight targets ended up with a 43% snap share, but that was only because they were kind of forcing the ball to drone forward early on.
2:37
[SPEAKER_00]: But he became Joe Flacco's check down guy.
2:39
[SPEAKER_00]: And this was something that I was excited about going into the year.
2:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Was that Flacco is a dude that just continuously targets his running backs over and over and over again.
2:46
[SPEAKER_00]: He passed about 45 times in this game.
2:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Joe Flacco.
2:49
[SPEAKER_00]: They're going to be one of the most past heavy offenses in the NFL.
2:52
[SPEAKER_00]: They probably want to run the ball.
2:53
[SPEAKER_00]: But their team is not set up for running back success.
2:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe that changes a little bit when Junkins is back.
2:58
[SPEAKER_00]: But as it relates to Flacco, like every offense that he's in over the last three, four years has been extremely past heavy, 45 past steps.
3:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm beyond us, like their probably should have been more.
3:08
[SPEAKER_00]: He probably should have been north of 50, given two drives just came to a halt because the receivers had balls bounce off their hands and were picked off by Cincinnati.
3:15
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think you can look at these numbers.
3:18
[SPEAKER_00]: And most of them are going to be inflated for the Browns in week one in terms of raw totals.
3:23
[SPEAKER_00]: not sustainable, but I do think Dylan Samson now is carved out a role where he's probably the guy that sees 55 to 60% of the snaps.
3:31
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think drone Ford kind of vanishes to nothing, but when Judkins is back, he likely will.
3:35
[SPEAKER_00]: So, Samson, I mean, for sure, the RB1 on the week in terms of Waverwire.
3:39
[SPEAKER_00]: If you follow my videos, he was probably someone that you ended up drafting in your league, so I feel good about that.
3:44
[SPEAKER_00]: But if not, if he's sitting there on the waver wire, I mean, here's the thing.
3:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Judgins, we don't know what his return time table is.
3:49
[SPEAKER_00]: He's signed with the team.
3:50
[SPEAKER_00]: He'll likely have a disciplinary hearing this week by the NFL.
3:54
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know what that looks like.
3:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Do they just allow him to go back and play right away?
3:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Do they give him a two week suspension?
4:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Do they give him a six week suspension?
4:01
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't really know, right?
4:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Like any time people start to speculate about this in the fantasy industry, they're usually wrong.
4:06
[SPEAKER_00]: So we're just gonna have to sit and wait on that.
4:08
[SPEAKER_00]: With Judkins, oh, he's missed so much time in.
4:10
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not been out there.
4:11
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not been running with the team.
4:12
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not been training and he's not up to speed.
4:15
[SPEAKER_00]: It's probably not conditioned well.
4:16
[SPEAKER_00]: So like best case scenario he's playing in week two, I still think Samson is gonna have a large role in his backfield.
4:21
[SPEAKER_00]: I still think Cleveland really, really likes this kid, and he's gonna be at minimum the third down back here, splitting carries.
4:26
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, if you're in on clear passing situations in a Joe Flacco offense, you're probably gonna see four to five targets a game.
4:32
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think Samsung, even when Juckins is back, which we don't know when that's gonna be, is a relatively nice floor player.
4:39
[SPEAKER_00]: He's kind of like an arbitrage trivial on Henderson.
4:41
[SPEAKER_00]: right like he's very explosive.
4:43
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a good pass catcher.
4:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know when we're going to see him take like the lion's share of carries, even though he did outcarried drone for 12 to 6 in this one.
4:50
[SPEAKER_00]: So he got way more work.
4:51
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, this is like the quietest 20 touch game.
4:55
[SPEAKER_00]: You might have ever heard from a rookie, right?
4:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Like you go into the year and you're like, of course, Ash and Jen, these are going to have 20 touches in week one.
5:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Of course, I'm already in Hampton's going to have 20 touches in week one.
5:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Dylan Samson, nobody was saying that shit.
5:04
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
5:05
[SPEAKER_00]: My highest home player in BBM dress shout out to Samstein.
5:09
[SPEAKER_00]: out here.
5:09
[SPEAKER_00]: So don't Samson's a dude like legitimately if he's sitting on your waver wire.
5:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he's I mean, we're not going to unload the clip because when Juckins is back, they want to use him as the primary runner.
5:17
[SPEAKER_00]: But Samson for as long as Juckins is out, I think he's like a really, really startable RB2 flex play in full PPR league.
5:24
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's someone that I would yeah, I would dump 20 to 30% of my fab on him right now and feel pretty damn good about it.
5:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Moving down the list, JCM is not available in any serious leagues.
5:32
[SPEAKER_00]: We can't talk about the tank bigs betrayed.
5:34
[SPEAKER_00]: So we at tank bigs, we shipped off to the Philadelphia Eagles.
5:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Tank becomes an immediate drop for me.
5:39
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not holding on to him there.
5:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Will ship Lee's injury apparently is not that serious.
5:42
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's not the reason they traded for him.
5:43
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if that's true, but it's clear.
5:45
[SPEAKER_00]: The Jacksonville is condensing their backfield.
5:48
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's Travis ETN who took the starter role obviously in week one kind of exploded.
5:51
[SPEAKER_00]: I think base all two and we'll get some base work.
5:54
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he will be Travis ETN's like direct backup.
5:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And then you have a Quentin Allen who is now like the third down guy and has a pass catching role here.
6:03
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's murky behind ETN, but base all two and absolutely needs to be owned.
6:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And I would go as far as saying he is my
6:08
[SPEAKER_00]: RB2 on the week in terms of being a waiver wire pickup like behind Samson, base all two ends the next guy up is something where to happen to E. T. N. Base all two and could be a do that just goes absolutely crazy this year.
6:18
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, and there are a lot of leagues like my league as you could see these guys are not available because most of them were drafted already, but they might be available in your leagues.
6:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Base all two ends a guy that I would.
6:26
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, you're not overspending on any backup running back of course, but he immediately vaults into the high-end hand cuff territory.
6:32
[SPEAKER_00]: Tray Benson, kind of the same territory, columnanungai did not get involved really whatsoever.
6:37
[SPEAKER_00]: In last night's game shot out to JJ McCarthy out there, I think he should be owned.
6:41
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not sure what the backfield looks like when Rochon Johnson is back, he was in inactive for the game last night.
6:45
[SPEAKER_00]: John Jay Swift, 17 carries.
6:47
[SPEAKER_00]: There wasn't another running back who got a carry last night.
6:50
[SPEAKER_00]: So it kind of tells you where the coaching staff is at with all that hype about the trust columnanungai,
6:55
[SPEAKER_00]: he didn't really play much last night.
6:56
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's definitely rosterable, but I'm not overspending on anything there.
7:00
[SPEAKER_00]: DJ Getins is another direct backup, high in handcuff, like he's gonna get all the work if Jonathan Taylor were to go down.
7:06
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's really it for the running backs on the waiver wire this week, man.
7:08
[SPEAKER_00]: It really is, Dylan Stampson, and then it's like high in handcuffs.
7:12
[SPEAKER_00]: You got two in, you got trade Benson, you got DJ Getins, you got those guys, like Kenneth Gainwell, I get it.
7:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Like if you want a roster and cool, he'll probably get eight to 10 touches a week, but he's not a really explosive player.
7:21
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not ever gonna get gold line touches there.
7:23
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not.
7:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I'm out on kind of theme.
7:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, if you can't tell by my town the first game of the season Thursdays and I football set us up with a bunch of wide receiver weight for wire guys, right?
7:32
[SPEAKER_00]: You've got the chargers and you've got the chiefs here.
7:35
[SPEAKER_00]: So we'll start with the chargers, right?
7:37
[SPEAKER_00]: We have Herbert throwing the ball 34 times to 16 rush attempts 16 running back run attempts.
7:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I should say so I think one of the biggest takeaway here is that they're they're like unleashing
7:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Herbert.
7:48
[SPEAKER_00]: They are allowing him to throw the ball a lot.
7:50
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know how sticky this is over the course of a season, but it's a pretty good start for a week one.
7:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe some of that goes to the fact that the chiefs run defenses probably a lot better than their pasty fence at this point.
8:00
[SPEAKER_00]: 34 pass attempts to 16 running back carries Herbert had seven carries.
8:03
[SPEAKER_00]: None of them were designed runs, which tells you that it could have been 41 dropbacks to 16 running back carries.
8:09
[SPEAKER_00]: They're going to be games where they let that man loose.
8:12
[SPEAKER_00]: And this is a very condensed target tree here.
8:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Quentin Johnson saw, I believe, seven targets.
8:17
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Lad McConkey was up at nine and Keenan Allen had 10.
8:20
[SPEAKER_00]: No one else on the team had more than two.
8:23
[SPEAKER_00]: So all of the targets are going to these three wide receivers.
8:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Quentin Johnson, I think he's a much better player than he was when he came into the league, but we kind of know what he's good at, right?
8:30
[SPEAKER_00]: He's really athletic, he's really explosive, he's a big play guy, Keenan Allen, again, a year removed from being Herbert's top target, having a damn near career season there in the L.A.
8:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Chargers uniform,
8:42
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think he's that far off from what he was a couple of years ago in terms of like his chemistry with Herbert is clearly there.
8:48
[SPEAKER_00]: If I'm ranking these two wide receivers, I'm taking Allen over Quentin Johnson because I think they're going to be a ton of days where Johnson obviously disappoints you.
8:55
[SPEAKER_00]: He gives you that boom week.
8:56
[SPEAKER_00]: That's spike week.
8:57
[SPEAKER_00]: But honestly, Keenan Allen,
8:58
[SPEAKER_00]: If he's going to go 6 for 70 and have a touchdown every year of the week, like those are pretty damn good numbers in PPR as well, Johnson's going to have flop weeks.
9:06
[SPEAKER_00]: I do think the fact that this team is going more pass heavy from like a neutral game script rate does raise the volume of Johnson.
9:14
[SPEAKER_00]: It does out the gate, probably raise the likelihood of him busting on a week to week basis, because if he would normally get two to three targets in a bad week, and this team is now throwing the ball 35 plus times per game, that can mean that Johnson now has a volume floor of like four to six targets, you know, two of which are probably going to be downfield shots.
9:32
[SPEAKER_00]: So I like the the raise of the floor for Johnson.
9:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, I am taking Keenan Allen over Quint Johnson in a full PPR league.
9:38
[SPEAKER_00]: because I think this is going to be a guy that you're going to be able to depend on to get volume weekend and week out and in in in PPR leads moving over to the chiefs.
9:46
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
9:47
[SPEAKER_00]: So we've got Xavier worthy that was hit on the on the mesh route and Travis Kelsey just deleted him from the game immediately.
9:53
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got a dislocated shoulder.
9:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Now there was like reports that came out that Andy Reed was like saying that he was day-to-day Xavier Worthy.
9:59
[SPEAKER_00]: I think what he was actually saying was they're like looking at it on a day-by-day base.
10:04
[SPEAKER_00]: They haven't made a choice on what they're doing with Worthy, right?
10:06
[SPEAKER_00]: He can have surgery that ends a season.
10:08
[SPEAKER_00]: They can try to have him play through it, which probably means he's back in like three weeks, four weeks, five weeks, something in that range, I think.
10:16
[SPEAKER_00]: uh but i i don't think the day-to-day designation was taken in correct context there so i'm very much expecting Xavier worthy to miss way more time which opens things up for the Kansas City wide receivers obviously i mean Hollywood Brown was a dude who stepped into that like design target roll 16 targets in this one became an every-down snap player ten catches ninety nine yards
10:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Realistically, he was pretty bad.
10:35
[SPEAKER_00]: He was just like a volume vacuum until the end of the game where he brought in that like 45 yard pass down field.
10:41
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if you can really run your offense through Hollywood Brown.
10:45
[SPEAKER_00]: He's obviously going to be a nice target guy for like the next whatever month of the season.
10:50
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm likely going to let someone else overspend for Hollywood Brown this week because the problem with Hollywood Brown is like if you overspend for him right now like you're going to give up a significant part of your fab budget and then the moment that Xavier were the or Rashi Rice, one of them steps back on the field, Hollywood Brown pretty much like evaporates into a non-existent player in your fantasy line.
11:12
[SPEAKER_00]: So I don't know that I want to be spending a ton of fab dollars on a dude that like I don't think has like season long upside You know what I mean like if I'm dropping 20, 30, 40% 50, 60% it's because I'm like, okay This is a guy that I could see having top five top 10 upside at their position over the course of the year and maybe you whip on that and that's a zero
11:30
[SPEAKER_00]: But Hollywood Brown, like you already know, the minute that Rashi Rice steps back on the field, if Xavier were these out for two weeks instead, and then Rashi Rice is back two weeks after that, Hollywood Brown becomes a pretty much nothing burger in your lineup.
11:41
[SPEAKER_00]: So I get it.
11:41
[SPEAKER_00]: If you need a immediate production and you're panicking on your team and you want to spend up for Hollywood Brown,
11:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not going to be the guy that spends more than like I'll probably drop a bit in in my leagues for like 10 to 12% probably not going to win you that guy.
11:53
[SPEAKER_00]: I could see guys going 15, 20, 25% just because of the raw target totals that he accumulated in week one, but Hollywood Brown, he's not the guy I'm I'm really trying to spend up for this week, just because the build of him, the makeup, I could also see Jesus, Mr. Schuster like.
12:07
[SPEAKER_00]: end up getting a bunch of design targets to like they were on the fly Xavier where he goes out he was probably designed to get most of those targets and Hollywood Brown just knows the position really well and they just like threw him there I could see juju some issues are getting eight targets next week Hollywood Brown getting eight targets next week they play against Philadelphia Hollywood could see a lot of Quinion Mitchell and this could be a game where like they take shots.
12:26
[SPEAKER_00]: at the Eagles corner back to who is like dreadful right now.
12:29
[SPEAKER_00]: That could be Taekwann Thornton shots downfield.
12:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Talk about Taekwann Thornton led the NFL with an average depth of target of 27.3 yards.
12:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Not gonna be a high volume guy, but clearly has the trust of my homes.
12:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe that's the guy I place like a bed on this week of like long as reception or the over on his receiving arch, something like that.
12:46
[SPEAKER_00]: But you can't seriously put Taekwann Thornton in your lineup.
12:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Moving down, there are some real, real, like, interesting waiver wire additions this week.
12:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Kesha on Boote is one of them.
12:54
[SPEAKER_00]: He's like kind of one of my favorite guys on the on the waiver wire this week.
12:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Eight targets, six catches, 103 yards last week, you know, 100 yard performance from him.
13:03
[SPEAKER_00]: 82% of the snaps, which actually out-snaps step on digs.
13:07
[SPEAKER_00]: He was the highest route runner for the New England Patriots.
13:10
[SPEAKER_00]: And over the last
13:11
[SPEAKER_00]: four games that boot days played fully healthy.
13:14
[SPEAKER_00]: He's been damn good averaging over 85 receiving yards per game.
13:17
[SPEAKER_00]: He scored in two of those four games.
13:19
[SPEAKER_00]: The chemistry between him and Drake may seems legit.
13:22
[SPEAKER_00]: And he's running a ton of routes.
13:24
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that's going to change any time soon.
13:26
[SPEAKER_00]: He showed them a lot of juice at the end of last year.
13:28
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's picking right back up where they started in year two with Drake May.
13:33
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a completely ambiguous receiving group.
13:35
[SPEAKER_00]: We talk a lot about ambiguous backfields with running backs.
13:38
[SPEAKER_00]: It's never really brought up in receiver groups because we usually attribute that to like, okay, this is a great quarterback with an ambiguous room.
13:44
[SPEAKER_00]: And we do that for the Packers, where it's like, oh, we just kind of want to take shots on these guys.
13:48
[SPEAKER_00]: If we think Drake may is going to be really good in your two and take a big step up, like, this is a very ambiguous receiver room where,
13:53
[SPEAKER_00]: We know what popped out with his.
13:54
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to be a nice like five or 50 outlet guy hunter Henry's going to be a nice high volume floor guy as well.
14:00
[SPEAKER_00]: We don't have an upside guy here and if it's not digs, he ran 70% of the routes if he's not fully healthy or if they just see him as a secondary guy in this offense, which contract doesn't suggest that, but the numbers in week one kind of do, but they could be a pretty high upside guy and good matchups and they have the best matchup.
14:15
[SPEAKER_00]: against Miami in Miami, good weather, week two, that second area is atrocious.
14:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Here's the thing with booty, like if you don't get him this week, there's probably going to be a really good performance at him against Miami in week two and then you're never going to be able to get him.
14:27
[SPEAKER_00]: So, who today's a guy that I would be happy, sinking some fab dollars in thinking that over the course of the season, he might be a dude that you can start at your flex pretty frequently.
14:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, but I saw eight targets and I think the crazy part about it is his average depth of target was I believe 19 yards down the field like he's a big playmaker down there and I know a lot of you guys have probably seen the clips already if him talking about like why people kind of like disrespect him but he was saying like he at one point he was like the big time recruit at LSU and he was projected to be a first round wide receiver there's some off the field things and whatever in the combine didn't go great for him so he fell really dramatically in the draft process but he was a dude at one time was looked at as a very high in talent.
15:04
[SPEAKER_00]: So Boote is absolutely a target of mine.
15:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, if you want to see my exact rankings and the exact fab suggestion I have for all of these guys, go sign up to be a big dog number at bdge.co, waverwire rankings, weekly, sit-start rankings, weekly private stream for the Q&A, all that good stuff.
15:21
[SPEAKER_00]: The next guy up on this list, said your tillman, he was a dude that we were definitely targeting throughout the summer.
15:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, eight targets in this one, five catches 52 yards and a touchdown just continues to put up fantasy points, man.
15:31
[SPEAKER_00]: When that man is healthy, he is like
15:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Over the last four games where him and Jerry Judy were playing fully healthy together, Senator Tillman scored 18 PPR fantasy points per game.
15:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Jerry Judy down at 13.5.
15:43
[SPEAKER_00]: He has out targeted him and had more catches per game in that span as well.
15:48
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, going back to just the Browns make up as a team, second highest neutral pass game rate in week one.
15:55
[SPEAKER_00]: That's something that's probably going to continue, man, because it's not like they were down two scores, three scores to the Cincinnati Bengals.
16:02
[SPEAKER_00]: They were playing their normal game.
16:03
[SPEAKER_00]: They just couldn't get the ground game going, and it just doesn't seem like they're gonna be very successful in doing that.
16:08
[SPEAKER_00]: And Joe Flacco just ends up being a dude who throws a ball 40 plus times for game.
16:12
[SPEAKER_00]: And Tilman's done nothing but produce weekend and week out.
16:15
[SPEAKER_00]: So would it shock anyone if Tilman outproduced Jerry Judy by the end of the season?
16:20
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, raw target numbers, I probably expect Judy to get there.
16:23
[SPEAKER_00]: But Tilman's been a legit resume threat.
16:25
[SPEAKER_00]: He is a touchdown score.
16:26
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a possession guy like he's got strong hands.
16:28
[SPEAKER_00]: He's six three, two, 15.
16:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Like Flacco fucking clearly, clearly like some.
16:32
[SPEAKER_00]: And every quarterback that steps foot on the field for the Browns.
16:34
[SPEAKER_00]: like Cedric Tilman as well.
16:35
[SPEAKER_00]: So Tilman's a guy that absolutely you need to spend some $5 on.
16:39
[SPEAKER_00]: I would prioritize Tilman over Cation Abutay, but I like both of them somewhere in that like 10 to 15, 18% Fab range for sure.
16:46
[SPEAKER_00]: And we'd have no problem if you went higher on that for Tilman, because I genuinely think in good matchups he's going to be like a solid wide receiver through this year.
16:52
[SPEAKER_00]: The next guy up on this list, and probably the only other guy that I am I'm going to throw a few fab dollars on is Rookie, Ellic, I-Mainer out there in Tennessee.
17:01
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, probably the worst match that you could have for a Rookie playing in Denver for Cam Ward.
17:07
[SPEAKER_00]: He only threw for like a hundred and fifteen hundred and twenty passing yards.
17:10
[SPEAKER_00]: But the underlying usage for I-Mainer was fantastic.
17:14
[SPEAKER_00]: It was Ridley with eight targets.
17:16
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm anner with seven targets.
17:17
[SPEAKER_00]: He only caught two passes for 13 yards, which is why I think this is gonna be like such a good sneaky under the value radar pickup.
17:24
[SPEAKER_00]: He ran 82% of the routes only behind Ridley.
17:27
[SPEAKER_00]: A 28% target share and similar to Buute, he's like a big downfield playmaker.
17:31
[SPEAKER_00]: his average depth of target was 19 yards down the field.
17:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Like he's a very good pairing with camords arm.
17:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Man, he's just going to be the wide receiver too.
17:41
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to run the second most routes and camords are going to have games where he slings the ball.
17:45
[SPEAKER_00]: And an Iron Manor is going to get his shots.
17:47
[SPEAKER_00]: And if he's seeing a 25% target share right now against Denver, week one as a rookie, like I think really good things to come.
17:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Moving over the tight end position, this is kind of spicy, man.
17:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, another brown, I think tops the list here, and that is Harold Fannon Jr., the rookie that they took very early in the third round, despite already having David and Joku here, and the hype around Fannon all offseason was very clear, was very loud, and that just continued into week one.
18:11
[SPEAKER_00]: They rested him with the starters at the end of the preseason.
18:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Fannon came out and just bald, man.
18:17
[SPEAKER_00]: 72% of the snaps, nine targets, seven catches, 63 yards, in terms of the routes run, and Joku still ran 85% to fan in 65% but in terms of like opportunity, who Joe Flacco was targeting, I mean, it was it was fan in.
18:32
[SPEAKER_00]: 29% target per outrun rate, 22% target rate, both those numbers were just 12% for in joku.
18:37
[SPEAKER_00]: He saw a 25% of the air yards, and like this part, they moved him around.
18:41
[SPEAKER_00]: They was in the slot.
18:41
[SPEAKER_00]: He was out wide.
18:42
[SPEAKER_00]: He was the inline tight end.
18:44
[SPEAKER_00]: He was in the backfield.
18:44
[SPEAKER_00]: A quarterback like they were using him in a crazy capacity.
18:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously like the lore of
18:49
[SPEAKER_00]: of Harrell fan adjuniors is almost mainstream at this point.
18:52
[SPEAKER_00]: He led the entire NCAA in receiving last year, not just tight ends.
18:56
[SPEAKER_00]: All players, why receivers tight ends, how fan adjuniors bowling green, Cleveland loved them.
19:01
[SPEAKER_00]: Very, very easy prospect to fall in love with awesome receiving guy.
19:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And they are using him as such.
19:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think he fits the person out too.
19:08
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, yesterday when I was on the stream, my first thought was like this feels a little bit like I say it likely in Mark Andrews, where you have this promising younger tight end.
19:15
[SPEAKER_00]: who had this big week one and we're like, ah, you know, how sustainable is this?
19:19
[SPEAKER_00]: My thing is like, their personnel fits exactly with what they want to do here.
19:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Fan and junior playing basically the Y3 or the Slotwider Seaver because you have Judy, you have Tillman, you have in Joku.
19:28
[SPEAKER_00]: So they play 12 personnel.
19:29
[SPEAKER_00]: They don't really have a Slotwider Seaver.
19:30
[SPEAKER_00]: It's fan in doing that, creating crazy mismatches against safeties against linebackers.
19:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And the difference between, I think, Browns and Boltonmore, I mean, there are a lot of differences we could be here for a while.
19:41
[SPEAKER_00]: And that one is, again, the passing rate.
19:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, both of our obviously wants to be an extremely run heavy team with Lamar and Derrick Henry.
19:47
[SPEAKER_00]: The Brown Zone have that option.
19:48
[SPEAKER_00]: The Browns are going to be a team that throws a ball 40 plus times per game, where, again, a lot of these raw target numbers might be inflated a bit, but I still think they're not going to be that far off when they're in normal game scripts like they were against Cincinnati.
20:00
[SPEAKER_00]: It's going to be a tough matchup against Baltimore in week two out the gate.
20:03
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he has real upside over the course of the season.
20:06
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he could legit be a top 10 tight end in fantasy for the remainder of the year.
20:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Do they look to trade in joku?
20:13
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
20:13
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know that they feel comfortable enough with the personnel they had.
20:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Like if they get rid of in joku, it's like do they just go to a more blocking heavy tight end and keep fan engineering or receiving roll?
20:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Like that, I mean, he would automatically boost into like a top five fantasy tight end at that point.
20:28
[SPEAKER_00]: But do they feel good about using one tight end sets and then having like Isaiah Bond is their slot water seever?
20:33
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they're, they probably like the depth they have there at tight end.
20:35
[SPEAKER_00]: So I don't really see David and Joker getting moved, but it would be a fucking movie.
20:39
[SPEAKER_00]: If he did get moved, fan and junior would skyrocket up.
20:41
[SPEAKER_00]: But I do think fan and junior is almost like you're looking at him as a big slot wide receiver at this point in your tight end position, which kind of sexy.
20:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Couple other guys that talk about Joanne Johnson.
20:50
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he ran basically 100% of the routes out there in New Orleans.
20:54
[SPEAKER_00]: This was a game where Spencer Rattler also threw the ball like 45 times.
20:57
[SPEAKER_00]: So they don't expect all the time, but Joanne Johnson running every route.
21:00
[SPEAKER_00]: notation hill.
21:01
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a team that's going to trail a lot going to need to throw the ball a lot.
21:04
[SPEAKER_00]: The clear starter out there in tight end, so I could see him just catching a ton of passes.
21:08
[SPEAKER_00]: This offense went a little bit away from like the dump off heavy stuff to Alvin Camara under Kelly Moore, which I guess is not overly surprising, but Joann Johnson is kind of like a safety valve for Spencer Rattler.
21:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, so I think you could definitely do worse in Joann Johnson.
21:20
[SPEAKER_00]: In PPR League, he's going to be out there for basically every single route.
21:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Britain's strange.
21:24
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm kind of looking him at the same as, you know, zackers and the same as Hunter Henry, like they're they're nice floor plays.
21:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Like they're going to get targets from their quarterback zackers is probably a better bet to score a touchdown because the Washington Offences a lot better Hunter Henry's more of a PPR guy.
21:38
[SPEAKER_00]: same thing with Brent and Strange, they'll all have their weeks where like one week they go four for 40, the next week they go, you know, four for 70 and score touchdown and then you're kind of just like having it flowing between that guy and this guy.
21:48
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm just probably going to stream those guys based on the matchup for Michael Mayer.
21:52
[SPEAKER_00]: We're waiting, you know, on Brock Bowers news, Brock Bowers is out.
21:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Michael Mayer is going to be, you know, like a top 10 streaming option at the tight end position, but he has very little value if Brock Bowers were to play.
22:02
[SPEAKER_00]: And right now, from what I've heard, I don't think we have any concrete update on it, but
22:06
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think the Bowers injury is totally something that's it's going to linger into multiple weeks.
22:11
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think there's a possibility that he ends up playing in week two.
22:14
[SPEAKER_00]: So Mayor could be very irrelevant.
22:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Some deep relief tight end stashes.
22:18
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say Mason Taylor of the Jets.
22:21
[SPEAKER_00]: I think, you know, the Jets offense obviously looked better than expected.
22:23
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Mason Taylor is very exciting young rookie prospect that has really strong hands.
22:27
[SPEAKER_00]: I can see Justin Fields developing a real rapport with Mason Taylor and then Chigio Conquo.
22:31
[SPEAKER_00]: out there in Tennessee, like the same case I just made for a minor where he's running basically every route and the matchups are only going to get better.
22:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Like you can't find a worse matchup than in Denver in week one as a rookie.
22:42
[SPEAKER_00]: So she's going to have days where he catches a bunch of balls because he's out there running routes on every single snap basically.
22:47
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, let's move over to the trending down tier and I'll quickly just list off whether or not I would drop these guys or keep them tank droppable Marvin Mims can't believe people were drafting him very droppable Chris Rodriguez was the odd man out there in that backfield droppable Ali Gordon, I probably hold on to I mean, he's just in that in that handcuff tier.
23:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And I would probably put him at the bottom of the tier just because Miami's offense looked terrible.
23:10
[SPEAKER_00]: A Jan was clearly healthy and past the calf injury and Ali Gordon didn't play much.
23:14
[SPEAKER_00]: So he is droppable.
23:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Damon Pierce, yeah, probably droppable.
23:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Nick shows getting all the work.
23:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Luther burdens a guy that I would definitely hold on to for a little bit longer.
23:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Like we didn't expect him to have a big role out of the gate and if anything, I just think.
23:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I'll meet as a key as kind of looks good in that offense.
23:27
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not going to lie.
23:28
[SPEAKER_00]: So he might be able to stay off burden for a while, but I would hold on to burden for a little longer because, you know, if any of the top rewider sheetvers in that offense end up getting hurt, then he becomes the the next guy up for sure and becomes the top waiver wire ad for the week.
23:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Jade on blue, I probably hold on to for another week.
23:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Not much involvement for him.
23:45
[SPEAKER_00]: It was kind of all jumonte Williams.
23:46
[SPEAKER_00]: My Sanders had a little bit of run, but
23:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, I'd hold on for another like week or two and just see what shakes out of that back field behind Javante Cooper.
23:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Of course, as a drop, Johan Jennings, you hold on to Josh down.
23:55
[SPEAKER_00]: You hold on to Donald Moon, you hold on to Ramandra.
23:58
[SPEAKER_00]: You're definitely holding on to Jaden Higgins.
24:00
[SPEAKER_00]: I know he didn't have like a great game.
24:02
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a really tough matchup at LA for the passing offense that entire passing offense.
24:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Just look like shit, but I expect him to bounce back.
24:07
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, look at the matchups they have.
24:08
[SPEAKER_00]: They got Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and Tennessee.
24:11
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think you hold on to everything in that Houston passing offense for now.
24:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Jerome Ford,
24:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Adam Thiel was pretty much a no show at Chicago, but that passing offense kind of struggled.
24:20
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, they do have great matchups at Lanna and Cincinnati both at home and Jordan Addison will miss both of those games.
24:26
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I mean, you're not going to feel comfortable playing Adam Thiel in in week two, but maybe by week three, yeah, if you need to drop him, you definitely can wall or dropable tray Harris is dropable.
24:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Evan Ingram, I don't know if we have an update on his injury status with the calf injury.
24:39
[SPEAKER_00]: At this point, I mean, rest of season, I think I probably rather own a lot of the guys on the waiver wire than Evan Ingram, like the
24:45
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, definitely how I fan a junior, uh, Joanne Johnson probably, I think I could make the case for like Zach Urts and Hunter Henry as well.
24:51
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you need the space again, Evan Ingram's not a guy, I'm needing to hold on to golden, definitely hold on to Roman Wilson and Kyle Williams, droppable, key and Mitchell droppable.
25:00
[SPEAKER_00]: They should all too, and definitely not droppable.
25:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Mark Andrews, I have them in, uh, your idiot league mates, which is devastating that I'm,
25:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, that will eat at me forever that I took him over Tyler Warren.
25:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I knew when I was on the clock, I was like, I shouldn't do this, but like, I'm gonna do it because I'm a fucking bot.
25:14
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not dropping Mark Andrews yet, but I don't feel good about owning him.
25:18
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll put it that way.
25:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Naji don't drop, I think his workload will increase as he gets into better conditioning mode, Kalmananga, I'm probably holding onto maybe for another week or two, but don't think I would fault you for dropping him just based on the lack of success by the Andre Swift last night, although the Minnesota Vikings run defense is really, really good.
25:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Cooper Cup probably not dropping him yet, but he is on the lookout.
25:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Kate on, I think you can drop Rochon Johnson.
25:42
[SPEAKER_00]: I probably want to hold on to until we see what that backfield split looks like when he is actually playing.
25:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Xavier, where the, of course, don't drop put him on your IR.
25:50
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what he'll drop a bull, pat Brian drop a bull.
25:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Rico Dattle, drop a bull, Brian Robinson, Jr.
25:54
[SPEAKER_00]: definitely hold on to that workload for she Mac is in the.
25:57
[SPEAKER_00]: St.
25:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Mason Taylor is a guy that I'm telling you that I actually like to pick up 88% of the snaps as a rookie week one is good.
26:04
[SPEAKER_00]: Wilson droppable lock a droppable, Emmanuel Wilson.
26:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you could drop him unless you just want to hold on to a handcuff for Jacob's lovelin.
26:10
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, not not a very inspiring week one.
26:11
[SPEAKER_00]: They're all of the snapshares up right now, but two targets, two receptions, 12 yards.
26:15
[SPEAKER_00]: It was always Tyler Warren over Colson, Lovelin.
26:17
[SPEAKER_00]: The rest of them.
26:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, Bonix.
26:19
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you're, I don't know.
26:20
[SPEAKER_00]: You could do whatever you want with the fucking quarterbacks in the situation.
26:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Quint John Juttkins do not drop.
26:24
[SPEAKER_00]: And that is the entire trending down list.
26:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, if you want to get my favorite like defensive or quarterback streamers for the week, that will be in the waiver wire rankings for y'all.
26:32
[SPEAKER_00]: I just wanted to get to the meat of the situation here.
26:35
[SPEAKER_00]: There was a lot to talk about in week one as there always is.
26:38
[SPEAKER_00]: So I hope that this video was helpful for you guys to give you a little bit more context.
26:42
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to be doing this video every single Tuesday morning for you.
26:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I did a full game by game recap live stream yesterday so if you want to catch that on the channel, go do that.
26:49
[SPEAKER_00]: You might not see it under like the main public page because you got to click live because I go live every Monday.
26:54
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you want to know when I go live, just turn the notification button on for that tomorrow.
26:59
[SPEAKER_00]: We will have my running back rankings out there for you.
27:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Why does she have rankings on Thursday?
27:04
[SPEAKER_00]: The rankings on the website will be there for you for you.
27:06
[SPEAKER_00]: She'd start the