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Transcript

Felix Prehn - Is This the Bottom? Why the Market Could Turn Here! + Stock Market News 22 May 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: We're joined by Winston, our chief analyst around here, and I want to take the next few minutes to walk you through what the heck actually happened yesterday and what it means for your portfolio right now, what to watch for to know whether things are going to be bullish or bearish, and a couple of opportunities for you as well.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Let me know if you are working here with me.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Can you see me, because I've just plugged in my setup again and I hope everything is working as it should.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Welcome back home, I appreciate that.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Thanks very much.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: We had an amazing trip, didn't we?
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: So there I am.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Here is the pre-market Looking a little bit better than yesterday, isn't it?
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Google continues to shine.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: The rest of the market is sort of taking a bit of a breather, trying to figure out which way things are going to go.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Can you show your pack of electrolytes?
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Sorry, my friend, they've been misplaced somewhere.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: They were in the bag, I think.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Loud and clear, amazing, brilliant.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Okay, so let me share my screen with you here.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: So what have we got and what are we worried about?
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Well, we've had a badly, badly, badly unpleasant, bad bond auction, but I'll tell you why.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: It actually isn't as big a deal as you might think, and Winston's the one who dug that out.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Of course we have a falling dollar usually also not brilliant and then we have a lot more debt because Donald Trump's big, beautiful bill looks like it's going to add quite a bit of debt, at least in the short term.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: If they pull off economic growth, maybe it'll do something positive, but for the moment the sort of guaranteed is more dead now and the market is not keen on that.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Oh, poor, your box sales 10 years ago got hit by a car on Thursday.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Oh, poor man, that's terrible.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: That's really really terrible.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: I'm very sorry to hear that.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I know these guys.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: They're very special souls.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: I'm sure you to hear that.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I know these guys.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: They're very special souls.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: I'm sure you had a lovely life with you.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Sometimes these things happen.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: I lost a cat last year.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: I also wasn't planning on that one, but yeah, maybe it's their time or something, I don't know.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: I'm just very sorry for you there, my friend Paul, but I think most people probably want to hear about the bond auction.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Seems weird, doesn't it?
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Like these sort of big things happen to you in life.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: The little things become a lot less important and I think it's a really good time to kind of reassess what you actually enjoy and what you don't, and how you can spend more time maybe with your four-legged friends.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Like, this guy was a bit upset with me because I was away and we've got kittens, so he's getting a little bit less attention.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: He's no longer the fluffiest, smallest thing around and he looks a bit sad to me actually.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna we're gonna go swimming tomorrow.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: That's what we're gonna do.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go swimming every day for a little while, um, through the summer, probably take him to the beach and cheer him up a bit, and it's nice because I can actually do that with my time.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Um, if you want to learn how to do that, I'm literally running, after this session today, in about 55 minutes, a live educational webinar where I will teach you, like what allows me to live this charmed life that I I now live.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: So, um, come and join me over there.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: My friends, felix, friends at auxlash.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Nope, that's the wrong link, isn't it?
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: It's the wrong link, let's, let's do something about that.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: It's not that link at all.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: It's a very different one.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: There is a webinar today, on Thursday hmm, I haven't got a blink for it.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Well, you have to take my word for it.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: It's today, it's at felix friendsorg slash get felix friendsorg slash webinar and you can get yourself access to that, and I'm just gonna have to pull up for you a um, a little banner there while we do that.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: But if you look at what's on the screen here, right, that's the bond auction, and bond auctions are either oversubscribed or undersubscribed.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: So the government basically sells you debt, and when it sells you debt, either there are lots of buyers or there are not a lot of buyers.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: And what happens when there are not a lot of buyers?
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Well, the buyers demand more money, more interest on that bond, to take it off the government's books, so to speak.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: So that's what happened yesterday, and it's that last red bar there.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: And you'd be forgiven for thinking hang on, felix, doesn't that happen all the time?
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Yes, all the time.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: It's the worst one in 2025, but nowhere near as bad as the stuff at the end of 2024.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: So you might therefore be thinking so what's the?
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Why is it such a big deal?
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Well, the media enjoys a big deal, don't they?
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Here is, here is the banner.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Oh, we got the right banner there.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Oh, how weird.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Okay, so we do have the right banner there, just not on on my my little software setup here.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: So it's not as big a deal as the media would like you to think, and I think that's always something to bear in mind.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Most things are exaggerated.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: I'm still trying to find my banner.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Where's my banner?
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: I like a good old banner.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: There is the banner.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: It's just a bit big now.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: So come and join me literally in 55 minutes and I'll teach you how to set up banners.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: I'll teach you what we buy, when we buy it, how do we find it?
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: How do we sell it?
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: When do we sell it?
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: The whole rule book that Wall Street doesn't really want you to know, and it means you're no longer guessing, you're no longer looking at stocks and going should I buy this?
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: Should I not?
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Because you just know.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: And it's a beautiful feeling and it also got me to retire when I was in my early 40s, so I'd highly recommend it.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: But let me answer your question, which you probably are thinking about.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Winston doesn't want me to leave again.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: No, no, he doesn't.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's pretty well looked after, he's got lovely friends everywhere and all that.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: But one of our Germans is outraged there.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Philip, my friend, that's quite all right, you don't have to tune in.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: That's all I'm going to say on that front.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Now, when do we actually worry about the bond market and the stock market?
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: Well, there is sort of a level I looked at the historic data of when it's not really about the exact level of the bond market, it's the speed at which we go up.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: So if the bond yields increase very dramatically, very quickly, the market freaks out, rightfully and, from my calculation, at about 4.9% the 10-year that interest rate, at that point I would expect the stock market to take a proper tumble.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Stephen, you want to retire in your early 40s, but I'm 58.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Well, there's your early 60s Maybe as good as I get or your late 50s.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: The best time to do something was always 10 years ago.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: The second best is right now, literally right now.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: So come and join me in 40 minutes or so at 55, 51 minutes actually at felixfrenzorg slash webinar, and we're going to run through the educational side.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: We're going to ignore the news, we're just going to focus on the rules only.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Basically, paul, the Germans are always outraged.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: I know that's sort of a folkspot, as you people say.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Yes, germans are funny people.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: They tend to walk around the world and point out the things that they don't like.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: It's an odd way to achieve happiness, but good luck to you.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: So why am I then not moribund and depressed?
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: And why am I quite chirpy At least I hope I'm chirpy.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: I hope I come across as chirpy.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Sandy's asking the rules don't work well with eToro, why not, my friend?
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: It works with anything.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: So why am I feeling quite optimistic?
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Because just look at this together, what we've got.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: So we've got Moody's downgrade right.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: Everyone's like yeah, it wasn't that bad.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Jb Morgan's saying don't worry about it too much.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: We now know this is the guy who's sort of the Fed whisperer.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: He's actually a decent journalist.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: The guy who's sort of the Fed whisperer, he's actually a decent journalist, and he's saying look, what we're learning is that there will be no material fiscal consolidation.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: The US will continue to run extremely large deficits as far as the eye can see.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Got a point, and we now know that.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: And are we worried about that, winston?
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Not too worried, right?
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: No, not too worried.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: So the bad news is out, the cat's out of the bag five of them and we know that Trump is still going to run a massive deficit this year and next year, likely, and possibly till the end of his term, unless the economy somehow massively starts taking off.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: So we now know that the market's forward looking, the market's already priced this in, so I'm not that worried because we know it now and everyone's expecting a great big tax bonanza, which would actually be good for stocks and I made a video on that a day or two ago, because all these write-offs are basically here.