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Transcript

Felix Prehn - Most People Have No Idea What is Coming - Big Banks Are Dumping it All + Stock Market News 02 April 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix, and today is probably the most jam-packed day with information that we've had in a very, very, very, very, very, very long time.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: So much information that Winston had to lie down.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: And there he is.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: The Winston Cam is live and I want to walk you through 12.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I know it's a lot, but this is important and I want to make sure that you are as well informed as the lot on Wall Street is, because they get these briefings every day and you typically don't, because they think retail investors will.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: The less they know, the better.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: That's how we make money out of them On the sort of devious side of Wall Street.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Let me also just shock you slightly with the pre-market here.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: Ouch, it's pretty hard to find anything green in here today.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Now 4 pm, today, of course, we have a little tea party in the Rose Garden at the White House where the Donald will announce tariffs which Bloomberg has described as either really high universally on everybody, or selective on certain industries, or a bit more specific, as in.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: We haven't got the freaking idea, which is why I cancelled my Bloomberg subscription yesterday.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: So this is going to be a little bit more insightful than what Bloomberg puts out there.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: So let me run you through it.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I made literally an index for it, so a table of contents, so we will remember it.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: We're looking right now at the fastest selling of stocks in five years.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Right, there are some big recession signals that I want you to understand so you can weigh them off and actually answer.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Like are tech stocks already in the bear market?
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: You know yes or no?
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What do you think?
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Do you think they're bear market?
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: If you think they're bear market, put bear in the chat.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: And what's actually driving the market right now?
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: And what are the wealthy buying?
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: The private banking clients, the guys with you know three, five, $10 million plus.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: What are they buying?
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: What are they selling?
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: I'll show you that Real, genuine insight here.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: And what should you buy today?
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: Right, isn't that the question everyone's asking?
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Should I buy something?
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Should I sell?
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Is it too early?
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Is it too late?
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: I'll answer that for you as well.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: And as well and it gets even better A lot of bears here.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Would it be useful to know what the banks are buying?
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: That'd be useful to you.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: That'd be useful to you.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Write useful in the chat down below and then I'll show you what stocks are the cheapest they've been in 10 years, and you know a lot of these stocks.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: These are important ones.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: And then I'll show you just the one thing that matters.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: So we could have maybe just reduced the list from 12 to just the one, but actually that ninth item wouldn't make any sense to you unless you knew everything else above, and I'll tell you, while NVIDIA will disappoint you and ooh, that's going to be controversial, isn't it?
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: But hear me out first before you kind of go nuts and try to set me on fire.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: And then there is the one chart that you are going to want to see.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: And then, in addition this is our bonus we just got some big jobs data in, and if you look under the hood of that jobs data not just the headlines, the dummy noise that mainstream media prints you see something that will shock you.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: That's a promise, right?
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Anything else we forgot, winston, winston, have you forgotten anything?
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: I think he says we're on track.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: So, winston's the one thing that matters, absolutely that.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: And, of course, destroying the like button, because if you do that at the beginning of this video, more people will get shown this information and therefore more people will be better informed, and therefore more people will get shown this information and therefore more people will be better informed and therefore, more people will make better decisions today and therefore, hopefully, more people will get to their financial freedom nirvana faster, which is my ambition here.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: So we've seen the fastest selling of tech stocks, um, well, I say, in five years.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: There was last year when Japan imploded.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Okay, so maybe not quite fastest, but one of the fastest, faster than 2021.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: That's pretty significant, right.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: So they are running for the hills, and are they right?
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Well, I'll answer that in the sixth point for you, because they have some logic here.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Now here's a big recession signal auto repossessions.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: So if you don't pay your car leasing, eventually someone's going to knock on your door and take it away, unless it's a Tesla, in which case they'll just set it on fire and be cheaper, to tell you the thing and of course, I'm joking and we're literally at the highest levels of car seizures and I'm not talking about the loony nutters who think that Tesla drivers are evil but generally out there since 2009, which, if you remember, was the global financial crisis.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: That's pretty extraordinary, right.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: So there are obviously a lot of people out there who are actually feeling some genuine pain, otherwise they wouldn't do that.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Now I asked you this and a lot of you wrote bear Are tech stocks in a bear market?
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Yep, it's 20%, isn't that the definition?
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: I think it's minus 20% and you're in a bear market.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: And screenshot here from Trade Vision and, yeah, from up here to where we are right here right now, we are 21% down.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Ouch, right, it's pretty.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Actually, this is yeah, this is all magnificent seven stocks.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: So, across the whole top seven stocks, they are officially in a bear market and we come back to that because so, bear that in mind, maybe make a note so you remember it, but we come back to that.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: What actually drives the market?
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Any, take us on.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: What drives the market?
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: What's the most important thing that's been driving the market the last year or so?
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Anybody, anybody put it in the chat down below.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: Okay, so in control is winston.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Winston's controlling everything.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: He's the guy manipulating the market.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: You can tell, right, he's just thinking about.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: It's like what stock am I gonna crash today?
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: So sentiments are scott yeah, that's pretty good.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: Trump, elon.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Stability um, that's pretty good.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Liquidity fear yeah, me, I wish.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Uh, winston, of course, yes, sentiment buyback there's a lot of, actually there's a lot of very insightful stuff in here and you guys are kind of all right.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Mostly you're right.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Retail no, jörg, I would disagree with you on that one.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: But there's a lot of stuff that you're putting in here.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: That's right.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: But what I was trying to come to with this particular chart is that the market has been entirely driven by the MAG-7 stocks.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: The top seven stocks caused the entire rally last year and right now, this year, they're down 15% Now without the MAG-7,.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: The rest of the market so the S&P 493, is at 0% Hasn't moved one bit.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: The only reason you're feeling pain is because you are heavily invested in tech stocks.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Just sorry to break it to you.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: Well, it means our sort of champion, our favorite quarterback, is out and that's why we're falling here.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: So it isn't just that the whole economy is collapsing, it isn't that everything is going down, it's just the tech stocks.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: The big tech boys are coming down, particularly Now.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: What are the wealthy buying and selling?
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: This is from Bank of America, so B of A, from their private clients' data just out today.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: And in blue and in blue okay, in the sort of turquoise-y blue, the bright blue they're telling you what they're selling.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: So what are they selling?
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Well, they're selling tech Not surprising, given that that's what's falling the most.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: They're selling industrials because they're just generally freaking out Weirdly.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: They're selling utilities, communication services, which is generally also tech.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: So what are they buying?
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Well, they're buying ETFs Maybe they're listening because I've been saying that's probably the safest thing to buy for the last week or so and they're buying energy.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: Now, why the heck would you buy energy?
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Well, if you look at the sort of market cycles and there is a pattern to this right as we go from boom towards bust what's going on with the pen here?
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: And if you're thinking about something else rather than bust, then something wrong with you.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: As you go down into the bust territory, the very large round bust territory, what happens?
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Well, at that moment, energy stocks do.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Well, it's just a cyclical trade.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: So if you understand the patterns of the market, you can do what the richest Bank of America clients do and you can buy energy stocks in the right moment.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: Financials are also part of that trade.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: As we come off the growth thing and we slow down, financials and energy is, generally speaking, where you want to put your money again.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Now, does that make some sense to you?
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: If that makes some sense, do you put a right bust in the chat.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Now, less than 10% of you have found the like button so far.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: Is that a verdict on Winston's performance so far?
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Winston, he doesn't seem too phased, does he?
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: He doesn't seem to face, does he?
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: He doesn't really live for likes.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Scott writes boobies.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Indeed.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: What do the two bar chart colors mean?
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: The lighter one is the average of the last four weeks.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: The brighter one is last week.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: So I'm focusing here mostly on last week because it's more recent data.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's amazing, making some best sense to you.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, love it, melons, everything, fraser, absolutely fantastic.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: I'm glad you guys are as silly as me.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: So what should you buy today?
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Some of you know what I'm going to say, don't you?
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: I'm going to say, before you buy anything at all, learn the rules that the most successful investors out there use to decide what they buy and when they buy.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: There are only three.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: You can learn them in 15 minutes and you will be smarter, better informed and you'll be able to make better decisions with your money for the rest of your life.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: That's literally the promise and the premise, and if you want to learn that, I'll give it to you for free, because that's our mission here.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Our mission is to make a million people financially free.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: That's what we want to do, isn't that Winston?
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Isn't that what we want to do?
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Strangely, again, he doesn't seem that keen and interested, does he?
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: He's just thinking we could be in the park, we could be chasing balls.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: So if you're going to go and learn, instead of panicking or worrying, and, in all seriousness, if you're going to watch the news today and the headlines and all the reactions and what everyone screams and shouts about, depending on what side of the aisle you happen to vote on this week, it's a complete waste of your life.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Don't do it, forget it.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: All that noise is only going to do one thing it's going to make you lose money.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: So if you want to actually make money, learn the skills, ignore the noise.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: That's what we do.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: So, felixfranzorg, get free.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: We can get access to that.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: I'll put the link in the chat for you as well.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: There it is, and you guys can learn.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: So go and learn.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Who's going to learn?
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Learn?
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: If you're going to learn, write learn in the chat as well, to incentivize the others.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: If you already learned as well, or if you're already learning with us, then also write learn in the chat and and more people will be inspired to to follow suit, would it be good to know what, um, what the banks are buying?
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: It would be, wouldn't it?
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: Now, what the heck does this chart show?
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Why did I put that in here?
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: I have no idea.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: This is Megacup Tech PE ratio the next four quarters.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, okay.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: I'm loving all the learns here.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: By the way, guys, if I manage to confuse myself, it happens quite frequently.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: So what's that saying to you?
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: This is a chart that's very, very easy to understand.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Look at the description Best PE ratio next four quarters GSTMT mega cap tech over S&P 500 index 1.14.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: This is why bankers have no friends because they put out charts like this.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: So what the heck does that say to you?
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: These are mega, not MAGA.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Mega tech stocks.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: So the big tech stocks, right?
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: So this is basically big tech.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: We know what that means.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: And how are they trading compared to the profits we're expecting?
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: Basically, mega tech stock price divided by profits for next year, profits next year, profits next year.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: So it's a bit of looking at.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: Are these stocks expensive or are they cheap?
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Well, we're down here.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Let me draw a horizontal line across and you see that the big tech stocks are cheaper than they have been for 10 years.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: They are the cheapest they have been for 10 years.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: They are the cheapest they have been for 10 years and it might therefore make you think well, this is what Goldman Sachs is sending out to their big clients.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: Maybe they're trying to send us a signal.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Maybe, after the Rose Garden party today liberation day, volatility day, trump day maybe we should buy some big tech because they're the cheapest they've been in 10 years.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: Right, something to think about, something to think about right now.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: Again, kind of the same information, but giving you a different perspective on this.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: The Magnificent Seven outperformed the market.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: Why did the big tech stocks outperform the market?
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: Because they are better companies.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: They're better run, they've got better products, they've got better margins.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: They just have a better team.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: They're better at selling, they're better at distributing it.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: They're just better.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: And they are not crazily expensive right now.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: That's the price, basically, and our expectation of profit is the dark blue line, and I know these idiots at goldman sachs keep making charts with blue and blue, but you can see that the stock price in light blue follows the profit.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: So why the heck are we selling off?
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: Something bad happened in the economy.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: Jobs data terrible.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: We just got some great jobs data and I'll show it to you in a second.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: There is no catastrophe at this point that is affecting the big tech stocks Right.