Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 161 : Arizona Fall League Standouts

Transcript

Ep. 161 : Arizona Fall League Standouts · Cards & Categories

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Hello and welcome everybody to episode 161 of Cards and Categories.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: I am Mike Coulard from Baseball Prospectus, joined per usual
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: by my very good friend Jeremy Brewer from Razzball, coming
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: in from the West Coast today from the Sin City itself,
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Las Vegas. We are recording actually right in the middle
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: of Game 5 of the World Series, so we'll see
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: what unfolds as we're getting into the second game in
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Tropicana Field. Brew, how are you doing tonight, bud?
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: I'm doing fantastic. You're right, coming from Sin City. We
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: need to start counting the number of states that I
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: podcast from because it's starting to get up there in
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: the numbers a little bit. But it's absolutely going to
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: be a blast. World Series, looking so far today, the
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: Brewers are still holding on pretty strong.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. Yesterday during Game 4, it looked like they
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: were going to take it all the way home. Cooper
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Pratt came back alive and saved himself after some miscues
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: in the field over the past few games, but man,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: I should have stuck with my Cooper Pratt call when
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: we were talking last week for our picks to click
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: within the World Series and key players because it really
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: would have worked out with his home run in the
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: 12th inning of Game 4, but then you also had
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: issues when they came back out into the bottom half
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: of the inning, and especially David Hamilton looked pretty nervy
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: there in terms of trying to get that throw across
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: the diamond and then it unraveled from there, but As
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: you said, things are looking good for the Brewers here
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: in game five. We'll get into it a little bit
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: further as we get into the news and notes, because
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: really the news and notes is really the World Series.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: So we've got a few baseball card updates, but otherwise
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: we're just looking World Series, World Series, World Series right now.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: The main topic that we're going to talk about is
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: actually going to be the Arizona Fall League. It is the,
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: I guess, the other thing that's happening right on the
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: baseball world right now on top of, you know, lead
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: them and other winter leagues have kicked off as well too.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: But Arizona fall league, I'll be out at first pitch
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Arizona next week. So I figured it'd be great to
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: highlight some dudes that I'm excited to go see out there.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: And we've got some performances on both the hitting side
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: and pitching side that I think will surprise people and
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: boost values going to 2027 and the off season for
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: keepers and dynasty leagues. So, Brew, let's get back to
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: this World Series, though. What's your take been so far?
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Because I have seen a little bit of hand-wringing today,
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: especially after the Rays were able to pull out Game
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: 4 there. Some hand-wringing over folks saying, you know, this
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: World Series is a little bit boring. It's a little
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: bit not exactly what the billing was lived up to be. Honestly,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: if the Brewers had swept this World Series, it might
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: have been for the better in terms of the historical
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: nature of this series because... It would have meant the
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Brewers would have been the only team to sweep the
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: CSs and the World Series and seven-game series. I think
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: the Big Red Machine did it as well, but the
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: CS was only five games when they did it. So
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: we're looking at a World Series that we're at least
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: going to go for game five. If it does get
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: wrapped up, it will be, I think, one that's not
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: going to have too many memories. But what's your take
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: been here on the World Series?
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, for me, at the end of the day, it's
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: just a really good baseball. I think that that's the
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: key here is yes. Would have been like this historical
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: thing where the brewer swept the Dodgers and swept the
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: rays and, um, you know, arguably to the best teams
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: in the league and just showed their pure dominance, a
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: team coming from, um, you know, kind of, I'd say
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: a tough, tough few years of trying to figure out
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: who they are and then not being able to truly
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: make it through. So, you know, I, I do think
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: the continuation world series is not a bad thing just
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: because the baseball has been so solid. So, um, I
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: think we're seeing great baseball. I have no problem with
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: it continuing on. But I think the Brewers have proven
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: that they're the best team. So I can see where
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: people are coming from. Like, hey, let's just get this
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: wrapped up. We know who the best team is. I
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: think that's okay. I do think the Rays have struggled
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: a little bit. Their defense has been pretty rough. And
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: so I think that's held them back. At the end
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: of the day, the World Series has lived up to
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: all my expectations from a quality of baseball perspective. So
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: I've got no complaints here.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, the other component here is outside of
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: game three, which was the big blowout where you were
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: talking about the Tampa Bay Rays defense kind of letting
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: them down a little bit, especially on the overturned call
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: where Junior Caminero was fielding it in the infield and
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: then was flipping the ball over to second base. It
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: was overturned when it was called out on the field.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: And from there, the, the, the brewers just went on
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: a tear. They rattled off, I believe seven straight base hits,
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: no homers there that they, it was just like, it
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: was the classic kind of bugs bunny clip, you know,
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: where they're doing like the.
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: Batting around going around, kept going around.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: So it was, it was nuts. When I was watching
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: it at home, my wife was getting ready for bed
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: and they kept putting on another run and another run.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: And I was yelling at her from the next room over.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: She was just like, this is nuts. It's bananas because
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: the Brewers were steamrolling at that point. And yeah, otherwise
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: game one, game two, pretty close. But I think the
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: problem for the Rays is through the first four games,
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: they really, really had to push their, their pitching hard.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: So Right now, as we're speaking during game five, Rasmussen
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: is still in. It's looking like it is the bottom
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: of the fourth and Mizorowski's dealing right now that like
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: he looks pretty good. Certainly has not had the strikeout stuff.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: But I mean, sometimes when you're an ace, the most
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: important thing is to make sure that you're keeping dudes
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: off base. You're keeping runs off the board. And they've
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: been going tit and tat back and forth as the
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Brewers are up one nothing right now. But yeah, what is,
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: what is your thoughts on some of the, the plays
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: that have happened, especially that junior came in narrow played
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: a second base. Do you think that was one where
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: that was a huge mental mistake and you should have
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: just gone to first base and maybe saved game three?
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, it's, it's the, probably the right move.
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: You want to get you, you feel more comfortable going
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: to the, you know, in theory, closer base and, You
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: could argue that the speed of the runner should come
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: into play, but hey, we're talking about instincts at this point.
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: And I'm not going to call that an error to
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: a degree. And then look at the fact that the
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: Brewers then played true Brewers baseball and just, you know, singles, doubles, just,
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: you know, run to your point, the Bugs Bunny kind
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: of ending there. I think it's the right play. You know,
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: if anything, the one that I actually had a little
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: more questions on is really the Brewers and at the
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: end of game four, not going to Mizorowski to kind
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: of close the game out. I know Pat Murphy wanted
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: to keep him for this game five. I completely understand it.
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: You don't want to fire that one and then lose
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: Mizorowski for a full game when you played him for
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: just one inning type of thing. And at the end
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: of the day, it was just an unfortunate defense with
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: Ortiz kind of miffing one there. And that kind of
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: got things running for the Rays. So we easily could
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: have been with the sweep. But at the end of
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: the day, these are all minute decisions. You know, the
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: fact that Cash tried to stack his outfield with the
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: best defense possible, and Chandler Simpson made some amazing plays,
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: and then Victor Mesa made some not-so-amazing plays. Like, we're
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: seeing it across the board, but yeah, to me, the
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: games have been so solid. I'm still, you know, I'm
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: still on the Brewers train. I don't think, I would,
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: I hate to say it since we're looking at a
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: 1-0 game right here in the fourth, but I just
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: don't see how the Rays pull another one out of
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: this thing. So, I'm playing my flag now. I'm updating
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: my prediction to raise losing this one in five to
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: the Brewers.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a fair take. We might talk
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: just long enough on this podcast tonight to see if
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: we get the completion of this game or not. But
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: I think some of the other fun things that have
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: happened in this World Series, obviously seeing Brandon Woodruff back
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: on the mound during Game 3 in that huge... huge
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: uh win they got a big enough lead that they're
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: able to bring in brandon woodruff where the raisin wouldn't
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: have even gotten that run on the board in game
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: three if it hadn't been for woodruff stuff was looking
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: a little diminished it was sitting around like 90 miles
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: per hour for woodruff but i think the spin rates
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: were looking pretty solid the curveball looked pretty solid uh
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: i'm just like it it's crazy it's nuts it's amazing
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: that he's able to do that after what was considered
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: to be possibly career ending surgery on his shoulder happening
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: just three months ago. I mean, when that happened, people
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: have been reposting on blue sky that like MLB trade
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: rumors posted season ending surgery for Woodruff was like the
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: headline for the news bit. And it turned out to
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: be not even career ending, not even season ending. So
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: it is very, very fascinating watching Woodruff work his way
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: back and, I believe he's a free agent in the offseason,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: but the one thing that I really liked seeing when
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: he was on the mound, I mean, you've talked about
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: it over and over again. Do not count this dude out.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: He's a bulldog. The spin was there. He was still
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: showing the ability to spin the ball on both the
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: four-seamer and the curveball and the changeup. This might be
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: a situation where I might be talking myself into some
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Brandon Woodruff for 2027, whatever you?
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, I had mixed emotions because he clearly
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: was not fully back. Like, let's be very clear. Like
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: he did not built up to the workload. Like he,
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: he was, I don't want to say he was in
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: there as a consolation prize. I didn't need the innings,
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: but they weren't putting Woodruff in any key positions. He
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: was the bulk reliever type of type of guy and,
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: but the pitch ability just still was there. Even if
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: the stuff wasn't fully where it needed to be, he
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: gave up some loud contact, but I think he's going
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: to be cheap and drafts next year. I don't think
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: people are going to be chasing him heavily. It's not
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: like he came out here and just blew folks away.
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: So I still think he's going to have some of
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: that value. We'll see how the off season reports and
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: come out, but I would be shocked if he's not
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: back in a Brewers uniform. It seems like the right
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: match for everybody. So I think, I think Woodruff is, is,
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: definitely back on the radar to a degree. The one
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: I want to ask you about, though, how about Aaron Ashby?
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: What are you doing with him going into next year? Because,
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, we're talking about historical playoff run here. It
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: was 18 innings with not giving a run. That's pretty impressive. So,
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, is he making some of your draft boards
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: for next year as kind of a tweener in the bullpen?
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: What are you doing with him?
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Hey, I mean, it would be nice if I could,
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: but I think he's going to be pretty highly sought
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: after that. You know, this is a guy who during
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: the regular season also rattled off 13 wins in a
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: 312 ERA over 90 innings. So like he was already
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: a known and hot commodity this year where I don't
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: think anybody probably had him from the get go. I mean,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: if you did, kudos to you, especially like if you
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: had him in a best ball situation. Man, what a
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: great year of production that you just juiced out of
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Aaron Ashby. But I think he is going to be
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: worth rostering going into 2027. I think we're going to
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: see it even more from some of these middle relievers
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: where it's going to get back to a little bit
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: of that era of what we saw when Andrew Miller
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: was coming off of his great playoff run where people
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: were starting to scoop up Andrew Miller as just a
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: dude to add to your 5x5 Roto team and 12-teamers.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Ashby was worth it this season. I think he will
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: be next year. And I think there's going to be
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: another handful of relievers that start kind of that happens
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: with because saves were a disaster this year. I think
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: as we get into 2027, if there's any shortening of
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: the schedule and any kind of shortening of the ability
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: for pitchers to ramp up, you're going to see shorter
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: and shorter outings from starting pitchers. And the way to
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: go might be stocking up on guys like Ashby very cheaply.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Like that's the, that's the thing is that I love
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: Aaron Ashby and I love middle relievers and I love
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: using this strategy for fantasy, but I don't want to
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: ever pay for it because it's so volatile. You never
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: know when it could unravel and you never know. I mean,
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: just look at like the ups and downs of Edwin
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Diaz's career because these guys are so high effort, so
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: high octane, they can change on a dime talent wise. So,
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: I'm not trying to throw too many dollars after this strategy,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: but I think it is going to be a viable
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: strategy for 2027 Fantasy. What about you? What do you think?
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're right. It's him, guys like Garrett Whitlock,
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: guys that kind of fit this what I call tweener
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: profile that can go a little bit more. For me,
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: I would invest in them if I believed that the
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: closer on the team had some stability issues. That's probably
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: where I would be willing to invest that extra dollar
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: to pay what it's going to cost. But to your point,
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: it feels like there's enough of these guys. Maybe Jeremiah
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: Estrada was a guy like that this year.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: People have been talking about Estrada being a starter next year.
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: That's true. But those are the guys that you can
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: find if you're kind of digging in to find these
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: kind of guys. And you don't have to pay for
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: the upside things. And you can take the risk late
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: in drafts. So I think it's fair that Ashby may
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: have caused themselves to be priced out of some of those.
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: I am willing to do it in deeper leagues, things
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: like that, where you want to kind of stretch out
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: and get some ratios. But I think the price has
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: to be right, or I think the closure situation has
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: to be questionable. I don't see Ashby forcing his way
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: into the back of that bullpen with McGill. I don't
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: see Whitlock doing that with Chapman. So I think it's
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: something to keep an eye on, but let's just call
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: it what it is. It's just been an amazing run
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: for the playoffs.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, because the other thing you've got to factor in is, like,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: you need volume from your dudes if you're going to
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: do it this way. Like, you have to be able
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: to get almost, like, 90-ish innings the way that you
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: take it from an Adrian Morajon and Aaron Ashby. I'm
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: trying to see who else would have maybe worked for this. Surprisingly,
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: Johan Ramirez from the Pirates put up a sub-3 ERA
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: with 7 wins in 83 innings. there's a lot of guys,
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: Brent Hedrick for the Yankees, I think will be in this.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: Obviously Sean Newcomb and Grant Taylor, but there's going to
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: be quite a few dudes I think you can try
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: to find a pathway forward with. You just got to
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: find the right situation, enough Ks, enough volume for it
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: to work because that's the other problem is if you're
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: going to go this route and it's not somebody who
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: is a locked in closer or maybe even sometimes they're
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: not even like second in line for the closing job
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: the way Ashby kind of was is that you still
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: need that volume strikeout wise for it to work for
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: you because otherwise if you're falling behind in wins strikeouts
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: and saves and you're only getting the ratios it makes
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: it a tough needle to thread especially when you're only
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: talking 80 innings like if one of these guys has
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: a 5-6 run outing it can blow up your ratios
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: pretty dang fast yeah that's regrettable yes Um, but speaking
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: of Ashby, I mean, we didn't, maybe we should have
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: put him in our pre-playoff stashes. I was almost considering it.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: I actually sold a couple Ashby's early in the, the
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: playoff run that I had been, uh, tucking away from
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: his rookie year because I believe it was 2021 was
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: the products that he was in that like, because if
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: you remember, Ashby was also a pretty renowned, like starting
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: pitching prospect coming up that people, uh, he was in,
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: rookie sets constantly for his rookie year because of that
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: and so uh yeah i had a few moved them
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: and um honestly maybe whoever got them from me although
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: i i know they went to wisconsin because i i
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: saw the address from my ebay envelope like i they
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: went to a brewer's band so i i don't think
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: they're moving on but i think it is time uh
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: i mean maybe it's even too late because like if
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: the brewers have won the world series by the time
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: you're listening to this and i've got posted thursday morning
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: and aaron ashby is the series mvp um there's going
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: to be a lot of of clamoring for ashby cards
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: out there at the way did you see i saw
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: this on reddit that the cooper pratt market spiked like
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: through the roof after that homer in the top of
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: the 12th inning last night where there were some pretty
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: bananas prices being outlaid for cooper pratt bowman first out
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: there so You live by the sword, you die by
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: the sword in this hobby, right?
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you do. I didn't see the Cooper Pratt numbers,
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: and he just did a single again, so he's proven it.
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: I did myself grab an Abner Uribe, like Golden Mirror,
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: the week before the World Series. Just going, hey, flip
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: that for double. You can see these guys and the
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: Brewers are on such a run. It felt like just
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: picking anybody up from that bullpen or from the young
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: upstarts and it was going to pay off. It just
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: mattered who was going to get a hit in the
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: big game. the big moment. So yeah, let's, we, we,
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: we should have seen a little bit more coming with
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: these brewers for our priest, our pre post pre post
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: season buys.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, and Cooper Pratt is, I mean, if
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: he knocked in the, the run right now and racked
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: up another single, I mean, I don't remember what it was.
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: Cause I, I have the game on in a different
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: room right now, but when he hit that single, I
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: think it had been like six ish. straight at bats
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: where he had a hit. I mean, don't quote me,
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: but it was a good little streak. And this is
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: a guy who, when we were talking about Cooper Pratt
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: recently within the past couple of months, I was like,
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: this guy is actually on my radar for 2027 fantasy.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: I'm in on Cooper Pratt. I think we've seen a
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: lot of great work from him, this playoff run. He's
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: the shortstop set it and forget it. I think for
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: the brewers that like the power isn't quite there, but like, Honestly,
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: it's a little like right-handed Corey Seager-ish where he could
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: really blossom next year.
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: I feel like he's the Luke Kieschel from last year
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: going into the next season. That's kind of my feeling
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: on him, that middle infielder with some– needs some power
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: improvement but a ton of speed. Got a hit for average.
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: We saw Kieschel the last few months really, really kind
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: of come into his own. It feels like Pratt's already–
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: already doing that so i'm all in on brad to
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: your point i just i just saw the tweet six
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: consecutive hits rookie rookie record uh so you're right there so.
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: Look at that wow i'm impressed with myself and i
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: mean just turned 22 in august man like there's a
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: reason why he got that fat contract from the brewers
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: and i think he's showing it off right now especially
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: yeah if the brewers pull this off and if pratt
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: picks up another hit he's going to be in the
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: chatter for the World Series MVP as a brand new rookie.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: He's got to be flying up Dynasty and Keeper boards
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: as well, too. So if you've got him in any places,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: kudos to you because there were moments during 2026 that
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: it looked tough and he is showing... exactly why the
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: Brewers are invested in him where, I mean, he was
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: also so cheap in most of your leagues that if
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: you've got like a salary component, like an auto new,
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: he's probably going to be very inexpensive going to next year.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: And man, I'd love this profile. Cause I think it
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: might be like when we talked about it before, it's
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: like 15 homers, 35 stolen bases, two 80 batting average
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: in the middle of that Brewers lineup with a six,
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: four frame that like, I think there's a peak 30,
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: 30 season and Cooper Pratt's back. What do you think?
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not sure if we go to 30, 30,
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: but you could probably buy me at 20, 40 type
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: of thing. So let's look, let's just flip the note
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: a little bit. It's still 60 totals. The same thing.
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: I mean, If you're playing points, it's fine. But yeah,
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: I think that this is a strong profile. I'm a
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: guy that has them cheap and not new. Please don't
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: lead makes go arm him up if you're listening, because
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: I would like to keep that one cheap where you can.
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I think he's going to be flying a
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: draft board. I think he's going to be a. you know,
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: probably top 10 shortstop draft pick next year. I haven't
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: looked at the whole draft board to kind of get
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: my initial thoughts, but I, it's hard to see him
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: not being there. I mean, that's gonna score a ton
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: of runs too. It's he's going to score a ton
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: of runs. Yeah.
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: I don't know if he'll get that rich, but it
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: might like given the performance and like he got to
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: two 80 by season's end, like he finished hot as well.
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: Like this is not a guy who just turned it
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: on in the playoffs. Like, Let me look at his
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: splits down the stretch because September was a pretty solid month, too.
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: He hit 304 with 12 RBI and 21 games in September.
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: This is a guy that has been rolling for two
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: straight months now.
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, just a question. Jackson Chirio gets a few more hits.
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: I think it's a Pratt versus Chirio versus Ashby kind
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: of weird MVP kind of discussion for this World Series
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: if the Brewers wrap it up tonight. Yeah.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: It's going to be slash like maybe even the Miz too.
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: Like if the Miz is, he's only at 62 pitches
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: through four innings, I think the Brewers are going to
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: ride him as long as they can. And I mean,
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: if he keeps keeping dudes off the bases where, you know,
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: the Brewers just picked up their second run, especially like, yeah,
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: if he's only in danger of giving up a solo Homer,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: I think Pat Murphy is going to ride Jacob Mizurowski
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: into the sunset if he can.
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: So yeah, He absolutely should. Yeah.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: So it's going to be a fun rest of the
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: game five here. We are going to obviously dive more
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: into the world series next week after this fully wraps up.
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: So let's get into the baseball card calendar because we
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: are speaking on October 28th here, 2026 tops five-star did
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: drop today. Hobby only product, more of a high end product.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: If you're familiar with the different kinds of high end products,
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: It's more on par with like tier one. So something
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: to keep in mind if you're out there looking for
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: some five star or you see some and you've got
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: money burning a hole in your pocket at a hobby store,
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: probably not a terrible product to be opening, but also
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: one where it's going to be really dependent on what
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: hits you get out of that pack. And you're not
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: going to get as many cards in that pack as
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: you would think. October 30th, this Friday, we've got Topps
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: Team Jammerized. Topps Team Japan Samurai coming out. And then otherwise,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: the only other updates that we've had since last week
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: is Alan and Ginter X getting on the board November
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: 11th for the release there. What that is, is it's
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: Alan and Ginter, but everything's in a black motif instead
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: of a white motif. So it's never been my jam,
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: but it is really popular. Like it is a set
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: where I'm surprised it's got a very, very niche lineup.
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: cult following are you one of the people there and
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: did alan and ginter x.
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: I i i really do enjoy the cards i've enjoyed
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: the look but to me it's like alan ginter is
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: already kind of like a niche kind of oddball product
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: and then you just do like a reboot of it
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: And so it was like niche upon niche type of thing.
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: And so to me, like when we've lost things over
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: the years with some of our, of our sets, like
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: it feels like I don't think it's your ex could
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: have been one of those we could have lost. And
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't have really thought much of it. But again,
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: there are some folks out there that love it. So
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: they're cool cards. They look nice. And it feels like
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: you're more into like heritage and that kind of card
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: stock and the black designs on those. And then it
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: should be up your alley, but I'm, That's more of
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: one for me, to your point, niche. Maybe pick up
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: a big rookie here and there just to keep an
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: eye on it because they will kind of spike here
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: and there. But otherwise, I'm keeping out of that one
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: for most of the market.
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's very fair. So that will also
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: be a hobby-only product. So that's November 11th in a
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: couple of weeks. And then otherwise, another shuffling back of
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: Panini 3-2. So it got pushed back. Another month, I
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: think this thing was originally on the docket for either
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: August or September, and every couple of weeks it gets
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: pushed back another month. Panini's having some trouble getting 3
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: and 2 out the door, apparently, because it's been rattling
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: around for quite a while. Otherwise, you've got 2026 Topps
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: Chrome update coming out in a TBD state right now,
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: but November 2nd, so that will be on Monday, is
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: the pre-order date. Um, like we were covering last week,
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: good luck on that pre-order. I don't think you're going
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: to beat the bots if you're on tops.com, but if
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: you're looking for a way to chase some MLB debut
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: patches or some of the hot rookies that will be
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: in there, uh, certainly give it a shot. So with that,
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: I think we're going to wrap up our, our news
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: and notes here. We are going to take a short
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: break and then we're going to be back on the
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: other side to talk about the Arizona fall league standouts.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: Stick around everybody. All right. Welcome back, everybody. So I
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: figured it would be good for us to talk some
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: Arizona Fall League standouts as we've had folks out there
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: playing in the Arizona Fall League since the beginning of
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: the month, really. So, you know, you've got most teams
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: are nearing in on their 20th game of action here.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: And you've got a team of six teams in this
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: league for the Arizona Fall League spread out all across
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: the Phoenix area. And I especially wanted to highlight it
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: because First Pitch Arizona is next week in Mesa, next weekend.
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: It's going to be a blast. I'm looking forward to
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: seeing all sorts of different folks out there. If you're
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: listening to this pod and I've never met you out there,
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: certainly love to say hi and hang out and have
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: a beer or something. Going to be lots of great
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: events going on and lots of different discussions. It's just
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: a fantastic fantasy baseball event in general. Going to be
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: lots of great people from the scouting side and the
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: fantasy side coming together. But with the Arizona Fall League,
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: if you're not familiar with what it is exactly, it
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: is what's considered like finishing school from the minor leagues
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: to get up to the major leagues. So you've got
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: a bit of a mix between upper level prospects, guys
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: who are in like a quad A status to see
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: if they've got enough to be able to stick in
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: a role next year. Other guys who are on like
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: the fringes of like rule five, like roster moves too,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: so that teams can get another look at them. You've
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: got pitchers rehabbing and it is certainly hitter heavy, I think.
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: So something to keep in mind is we're going through
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: some of these stats because I think we've got, I've
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: got roughly six-ish on the hitting side and pitching side,
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: a little bit more on the hitting side because there
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: are a lot more exciting hitters and a lot more
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: exciting prospects on that side. But it is a very
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: offensive environment. heavy environment. And it's even been expanded. It's
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: even more offensively heavy because Eric Langenhagen from Fangraphs broke this,
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: was that at Salt River Fields, they're experimenting with the
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: outfield shift rules, which the way it's working, it's like
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: some sort of camera or other system that is tracking
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: the player's location in the outfield. And then there's like
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: a board behind home plate that tells each of the
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: outfielders left, right, center, if they're in the correct kind
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: of zone range. I think, you know, if they were
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: to eventually institute this, you would probably end up putting
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: in a chalk line or something, too, because why not? Like,
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: it would be stupid not to if you're going to
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: enforce it that way. And so it is happening in
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: one location in Salt River. That location compared to the others,
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: it's playing like Coors Field, like it. Baseball America put
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: out a great article about I've got both of them
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: linked in the show notes between the Eric Long and
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: Hingham piece and the Baseball America piece that all of
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: the offensive numbers are up in Salt River, and it's
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: easy to see why. These dudes are positioned very shallow.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: You can't play no doubles defense, and it's kind of
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: nuts because you can just hit it over the heads
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: of the outfielders into the gap. They've got many documented
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: events from Baseball America where they've talked about less than
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: fleet-footed catchers are racking up triples pretty easily because they're
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: just able to pop it over people's heads. I'm torn
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: because it is good to see the extra offense, but
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: if you're forcing it by not allowing people to do
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: no doubles defense, essentially. I don't know if that's necessarily
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: the answer because the other component here too is one,
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: it's going to really cut down on, if not almost
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: fully eliminate home run robberies to you're already like as
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: a league, pretty anti, it seems like not getting balls
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: in action through the, like the three true outcomes of
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: home run and, walk and strikeouts. If you're going to
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: implement outfield shift BNs too, why are you not just
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: swinging for the fence every time to hit it over
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: their heads if it's going to be set up as
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: shallowly as it is right now in the Arizona Fall
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: League because they want to get more balls in the gap,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: more offense that way. But Brew, what's your take been
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: on this? Are you for the outfield shift or is
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: this a measure too far for you?
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I know, like, throughout the years here, like,
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: the removal of the– or actually, implementation of the DH
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: and removal of the shift and things like that. Like,
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: I'm a baseball purist, so a few of those have
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: been a little tough. You know, the pitch clock, you know,
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: I've actually adapted and actually do appreciate that. But this one,
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: honestly– I mean, this feels like you're just trying to
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: take some of the strategy away. Why don't you just
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: put two outfielders if that's what you want, right? And
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: put them wherever they're like, I don't see, it feels
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: like we're playing slow pitch softball rules to a degree
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: or something like that. And even they can shift. Like,
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: and so, you know, I don't, I don't love the
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: idea of any of a spot where you have like
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: the little two foot circle in the outfield is like
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: thou shalt start in this spot. Like it just, it
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: takes so much away. And I do think it, would
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: really impact players across the league significantly differently which i
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: know that the shift rules did as well but like
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: i just i i struggle with the the value here
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: and how you know now you're gonna start trying to
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: you can't hide a guy in the outfield because if
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: he doesn't have speed and doesn't have this crazy glove
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: now you can't get your big bopper in you're gonna
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: start seeing offense go down because these guys that can
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: hit can't play the field like i I'm struggling there
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: because it feels like you're really forcing it much more
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: than you have in the past. And so I get
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: it at some point. The game's probably going to have
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: to adapt because these guys are– I mean, look, Mizorowski
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: just threw a 103-mile-an-hour fastball. At some point when they're
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: throwing 120 and guys just can't do anything, you've got
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: to figure out something to reinvigorate that offense. But I
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: just– I don't know that this is it. I don't
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: know that this is it. And maybe this sample size
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: is so small that we can't read into it, but
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: I would really have a hard time seeing this play
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: at the major league level.
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I agree too, where it just does
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: feel like a step too far that maybe you see
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: more so of like some sort of ban on like
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: oversized outfield shifts that maybe they need to stay like
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: within like lanes you know what I mean in terms of.
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: I could buy that like you have the three spots
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: in the outfield the three lanes and you can't leave
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: that lane like you can't play this is kind of
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: like the infield shift right I could probably buy into
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: something there yeah that's not too bad just don't give
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: me two foot.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: Circles yeah exactly because yeah I think either way like
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: you're just you're gonna juice it too much with that
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: and like This is something that's kind of always been
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: a part of baseball. Unlike, I mean, so was the
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: infield shift. Like they were doing infield shifts on Babe
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: Ruth and Ted Williams back in the day. And I mean,
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: I think it just did finally get too far where
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: like the analytics and I can't believe I just said
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: analytics like that in a sort of derogatory way that
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: like just the way that people started slicing and dicing
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: the data. it just led to too many infield shifts.
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: And I think outfield shifts is there's certainly something similarly
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: going on, but I think there's more less intrusive ways
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: to handle it than what they've been doing here in
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: salt river. And if anything, maybe I think that shows
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: it because some of the kind of hits that are
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: happening feel much cheaper. And I think one of the
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: things that baseball really makes baseball baseball is that like,
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: you can compare statistics across so many eras. And obviously
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: like there's different weights that you have to consider, like,
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: you know, the late nineties Coors Field and some of the,
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: the like pre-integration games where the stats got juiced. But
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: generally you can kind of compare it across the board.
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: And if you're making this big of a shift, it's
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: going to really skew things, I think, from what you've
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: historically had in baseball. But with that, let's get into
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: some individual players because, yeah, like I said, I'm not
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: sure when we're going to see this outfield shift actually
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: come to light in the minor leagues or major leagues.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: But we've got plenty of really good performances in the
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: Arizona Fall League so far. So I've got a couple
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: of standouts on the hitting side, then a couple of
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: like I would say like couples in terms of guys
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: you can pair together because they're in similar buckets. And
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: I'll let you kind of pick your favorite for them.
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: But let's talk, there's really three standout stars right now
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: on the hitting side in the Arizona Fall League. Number one,
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: like with a bullet, not even close, is outfielder Ty
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: Peet from the St. Louis Cardinals system. He has been
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: absolutely tearing it up as a 20-year-old. If you recall,
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: he came over in the offseason trade from the Mariners.
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: So this, he was acquired in exchange for Brendan Donovan.
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: He was really struggling when he was in the Seattle system.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: This looks like an all-time fleecing, maybe, if this is
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: what Pete is turning into for the Cardinals, because in
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: 61 at-bats, he's been slashing 365, 459, 731, two homers
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: with 10 stolen bases, leading the league in total bases
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: as well, as we're speaking here on the 28th. And
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: every scouting report is glowing that he looks locked in.
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: Everybody's like, this dude is going to be competing for
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: the St. Louis Cardinals starting center field job in the spring.
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: That's how good that he's looked. So what is your
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: takeaway here from Taipeak? Because this is also a guy who,
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, it was an incredible season for him in
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: the minor leagues too, where he put up a 126
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: WRC plus across high A and double A, 296, 359, 549.
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: And that slash line with 13 homers and 16 stolen
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: bases is Taipeak. moving out of kind of a fringy
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: area to somebody who is on your radar for 2027
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: drafts now?
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know if he's fully on the radar
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: for 2027 drafts, but I think to be clear that
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: the Cardinals have no plan. Haim Bloom basically said as
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: much in an interview because they have no plans to
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: address the center field vacancy until like Josiah is a
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: run with that. like a Nathan Church, Victor Scott kind
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: of blend, just like they did this year. And so
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: I think Pete can force his way in the conversation.
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: And where I'm actually really interested is that strikeout rate
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: really improved. He's always been toolsy, always been a really
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: toolsy guy. But now with the strikeout rate, he's never
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: going to be a 270, 280 hitter. I think we're
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: talking like a 240, 250 hitter. But if you could
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: do that with 2020 type of upside and, you know,
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: you know, being kind of a blazer and playing some
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: good defense, like I think this is somebody that we've
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: got to recognize. And the Cardinals have been picking out
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: some of these guys, like they've been picking out guys
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: and bloom's got something going on in St. Louis. Yeah.
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: I totally agree that. I think a lot of what
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: he did in Boston bloom is charting over across the St.
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: Louis where Pete actually, it reminds me a lot of
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: like the Sedan Raffaella profile where Raffaella Raffaella, came through
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: the minors with not quite as much oomph in the bat,
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: and they unlocked it in Boston. I think you can
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: see a little bit of that happening with Taipit. I
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: think he had more raw power than Rafaela did, but
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: the nice thing is the other good thing about the
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: AFL is because they're playing in front of all of
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: the camera systems out there in Arizona is that you've
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: got prospects up and running on these guys. So You
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: can see that Pete's numbers have been just fantastic across
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: the board. Upper 94th level percentile, barrel rate, hard hit
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: rate above 55%, max EV of 112, average EV of
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: 94 miles an hour, and bat speed of 72.5 miles
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: per hour. I'm really liking what I'm seeing in Pete's profile.
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: And I think that if you're looking at draft and
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: hold situations over the next month, You've got to put
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: Pete on your watch list because he's going to get
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: swiped up, I think, pretty quickly. So the big breakout
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: right here of the AFL.
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: I feel like we've got a version of an outfield
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: version of Jazz Chisholm to a degree in type Pete.
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: I think that's kind of what guy he reminds me of,
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: which is an up and down profile to to be Frank.
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: But I feel like that's the, the kind of upside
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: that he has.
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: Okay. The other big one. Now this is a name
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: right here. Jack O'Dowd from the Colorado Rocky system, who
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: he bounced around a little bit in college. He was
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: at Vandy and Texas. So some pretty big time leagues and,
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: Went undrafted, though, and went to Indy Ball. The Rockies
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: picked him up at the beginning of the season in January.
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: And not only did Dowd absolutely mash this season, he
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: hit 23 homers across three levels. That is single A,
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: high A, double A. It was a 136 WRC plus
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: with a 307, 383, 564 slash line. The AFL numbers
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: have been otherworldly as well. Five homers. 14 RBI in
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: 12 games at the 370, 408, 804 slash line. This
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: is a left-handed bat that will be in Colorado and
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: catcher eligible. He has been making some big time hay.
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: He is a little older than what you would have
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: seen for those levels. So he ran into a little
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: more difficulty at AA, put up a 29% strikeout rate
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: after 17% in the A ball levels. Cause he is
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: 25 years old. So, um, is this somebody that is
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: on your radar or is this somebody you think that
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: is just tearing through the competition age to level and
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: is going to flame out into 2027?
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm probably 50 on this one. First, Jack O'Dowd
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: is the key name of any 90s video game. They
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: had Barry Bonds, and they couldn't figure out what to
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: do because they didn't have the licensing.
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: It's John O'Dowd.
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there's something like that, John Dowd. So it fits
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: because we're coming from indie leagues here. But I think
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: there's a few challenges here. First of all, he's not
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: going to be in the catcher conversation very much with Goodman.
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: Already up in Colorado. Maybe he'll get some spots here
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: and there. But I do think age levels definitely played
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: a role here. I mean, he only played 51 games
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: at AA. Don't get me wrong. He had 254, seven homers.
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: But he still struck out almost 30% of the time there.
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: Hasn't been challenged at AAA. Yes, I get it. He's
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: doing great in the fall league. This is a really
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: interesting one to watch. for me, because, you know, if
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: he gets into spring training, he's continuing to kind of
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: do this thing and they could give him a shot.
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: I would absolutely take a flyer on him because this is,
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: if it works, this is the kind of bat that
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: plays really, really well in Colorado. So I'm, I'm interested
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: in it, but like my hope of the outcome is
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: like a, you know, 30% may this works out 70% like, Hey,
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: this is a quad a type type player that they
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: hope for the best. And so, Hey, three out of
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: 10 makes you a successful major leaguer. So maybe if
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: that 30% comes true, he could be a useful corner
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: and field, maybe, you know, have that catcher eligibility, but
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: he's much more on the watch list for me, despite
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: what he's doing in the AFL.
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: And this is a guy because he got to double a,
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: we've got a little more actual kind of prospects of
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: on data on him. And so his comps is Luke
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: Raley is his number one comp, which is, is honestly
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: pretty spot on. That is, you're looking at Luke Ravely,
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: but with catcher eligibility, which will be pretty nice. But yeah,
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: I am with you where this is a profile where
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: it can fall apart pretty quickly because of the swing
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: and miss. But you've got a lot of really positive
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: traits here. One of them is that he's a left-handed
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: bat that can platoon pretty easily there with Hunter Goodman.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: And they can like flip-flop them between the catcher DH
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: spot if they wanted to. with O'Dowd plays a little
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: bit of first base as well somebody where yeah I
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: think in 2027 something really back end of your reserve
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: roster right now but if you're seeing him get reps
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: in spring training look out because the helium is going
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: to catch on with Jack O'Dowd pretty quickly and I
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: think in in like dynasty keeper situations he's probably scooped
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: up in lots of dynasty situations but if you like,
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: I know in our odd and you leak, like he's
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: very squarely on my, like upper tier watch list right now, because, uh,
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: it doesn't take much for a catcher to put it
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: together and it can kind of really all peak right
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: at the right time. And in one's late twenties, when
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: the skills and the baseball aptitude all kicks in at
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: the same time.
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: I was just, it doesn't take much to get on
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: your watch list either. I've seen your watch list and
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: not new.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: So, uh, That's why I said the upper tiers of it.
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: When your watch list has tiers, that's something to be said. Yes.
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe that is true.
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: The other standout, the other third bat that is just like,
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: if there was another guy who would be in the
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: MVP conversation right now for the AFL, although, I mean,
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: it's Ty Peets to lose at this point. The other
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: one would be Welbin Francisca from the Cleveland Guardian system.
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: Through 51 plate appearances, he's put up a. 442 5'10, 7'21,
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: slash line with two homers, 15 RBI, and three stolen bases.
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: Hasn't been great on the base pass. Just three steals
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: with three caught stealing. But almost as many strikeouts as
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: walks with eight strikeouts to seven walks. This is a
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: guy who, I mean, it wasn't like a super standout
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: 2026 for him. did battle a little bit of an injury,
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: a shoulder injury, which is part of the reason why
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: he's at the AFL. It was across 347 play appearances,
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: 19 homers, 16 stolen bases, 272, 366, 513, a 122
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: WRC plus for Francisca across those three levels. I mean,
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: part of it was complex ball, just rehabbing. Francisca came
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: up actually a couple of years ago on our pre
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: season stashes with the itch that this is, the itch
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: has been in on Francisca a long time. Uh, it's
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: a switch hitter, six foot frame, 20 years old, uh,
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: pretty much the most guardians guardians player you can think
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: of because he's just about like a Jose Ramirez prototype.
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: Uh, that's exactly who I was going to compare it to. Yeah.
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: Is this a guy where like, you think that that
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: is the upper level ceiling or, or is this somebody where,
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: cause this guy can turn into anything from like that
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: upper level of like Jose Ramirez to something more like
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: a Aussie Albies. And then from there, like fringe infielder
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: that this type of guys in Cleveland all the time.
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: So where do you think he kind of falls on
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: that scale of, Jose Ramirez slash Ozzie Albies for you. Yeah.
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, I, I always hesitate to take young guys,
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: 20 year olds to, and throw them up to like
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: the perennial first rounder type conversation of like a Jose Ramirez.
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think the skillset definitely looks like that potential.
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: But I, I've probably got him more on the Ozzie
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: Albies side of things. The power has, you know, has
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: just been maturing and, And it's hard to know how
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: much of that. He's been a good base dealer, but
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: he hasn't been a great base dealer. And so, you know,
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: whereas Jose Ramirez is kind of a 30-30 kind of
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: guy at the peak. I think Francisca and there's a
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: wide range of outcomes here. So, you know, take it
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: for what it's worth. But I think you're talking more
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: about 2020 to 2025 kind of outcome as far as
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: the best case scenario. He has a really strong ballpark.
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: bat to ball profile. He, he controls the strike zone. Well, uh,
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: he's performed better, uh, than average at every single level
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: that he's, he's been. So I think that the upside
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: is immense here. Uh, but the, the range of outcomes still,
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, we've got five games at double a, um,
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: I think we've got still a lot to see. And
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: once he starts to get really, really challenged in the
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: upper minors, but you know, we talk about it all
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: the time on this podcast, like, Aged level is such
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: a predictor. It is such a predictor anymore. And the
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: fact that he really started to come into his own
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: from a power perspective this year, I'm excited. I'm excited.
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: I think of all of these guys, he might be
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: the one that has the absolute highest upside and you
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: could dream on coming out of the AFL. Yeah.
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: And I mean, this is a guy, Francisco, who he
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: was kind of off my radar. 2025 was brutal. 88
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: WRC plus at a ball. only three homers and 428
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: plate appearances. And I think it was a situation where
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: that shoulder and maybe other components were dogging him. But now, yeah,
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: I think he's very clearly on my like most like again,
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: creeping up that list where like, I think this dude's
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: probably going to be a top 50 prospect and that
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: prospect updates that come out because the performance has been
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: so good in the Arizona fall league and, it isn't
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: necessarily like the upper crust in terms of the exit
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: velocities that we've been getting out of Pete, no doubt,
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: but better plate approach switch hitter. I think Francisca there's a,
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: there's a good chance that he also puts his kind
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: of name in the hat for making the opening day roster.
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: It's going to be tough with Rokio, Bazana and Ramirez
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: ahead of him, but he's so good and so well
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: regarded that like, I think, The Guardians would consider him
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: at shortstop if he outperforms Rogue. by a huge degree
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: going into spring training.
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's an outside shot, but the talent's there.
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: So I would expect them to start him at double
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: or triple A to get a little bit of games,
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: but a 2027 ETA is absolutely in the cards.
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: OK, the next we're going to start doing the pairs.
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: So we've got two pairs of like really upper end
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: first round picks that are showing out right now in
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: the AFL after a banged up 2026 and in big markets.
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: So you've got Aiden Miller from the Philadelphia Phillies, who
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: is nominally a shortstop for the Phillies, but has been
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: playing a lot of third base at the AFL. And
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: then you've got shortstop from the New York Yankees, Dax Kilby.
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: who as they've both been looking good. So Miller has
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: been hitting 300, 571, 467 because he has 18 walks
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: to 10 strikeouts, which is cool. But the pitching is
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: not great in Arizona either because of you don't exactly
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: want to like send your top, top arms to Arizona
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: for finishing because there's only so many bullets there. So
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: it is great to see Aiden Miller, have the plate approach,
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: but at the same time, he was out most of
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: the year with back surgery, and so it's good just
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: to see him on the field, period, and performing. The
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: eye has not slipped for him. Dax Kilby has battled
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: a hamstring injury and just all sorts of other nicks
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: and nacks, but the hamstring injury was the biggest one.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: In 2026, he got into 36 games, 164 plate appearances
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: across a He is putting up a 286, 327, 571
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: slash line with two homers and eight RBIs and five
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: stolen bases. Do keep in mind he is on that
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: Salt River team. Actually, Jack O'Dowd is too, but Jack
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: O'Dowd is just hitting it out of the park, so
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: it doesn't matter where he's at. But you've got two
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: pretty high-end shortstops here that were former number one picks,
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: slid down prospect list this year because of injuries. Which
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: one do you feel better about going into 2027, Miller
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: or Kilby?
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, if I'm looking mainly at 27, you know,
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: it's got to be Miller. If I'm looking long term,
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: I think Kilby might have a very slight edge on
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: the overall upside of him. But the range of outcomes
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: is higher. So like if I'm trying to balance those
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: range of outcomes, I'm probably going with Miller. He's done
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: it more. The speed is going to continue to hold.
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: Not going to be a massive power guy, but if
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: we're getting 10 or 15 homers with 30 to 40 steals,
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: I think we are absolutely thrilled. I think Kilby could
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: be a more complete player. I just think we haven't
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: seen enough in the minors in the AFL. To your point,
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: the pitching's rough. He's playing in a unique ballpark. So
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: I think there's enough question marks on some of his
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: results that I need to see it like in the
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: true minor league system and see where that comes. So
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: I've probably got Miller a little bit ahead of right
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: now than Kilby, but I've been really pleased to see
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: Kelly doing what he's doing because the, the upside's always
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: been there. It's just, we haven't seen the results really
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: come through at this point. So give me Miller over
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: Kilby at this point.
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: Okay. Yeah, I think that's fair. And I think that
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: also makes sense because there's a decent chance that the
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: Phillies move on from Trey Turner as a shortstop this
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: off season and Kilby would be or not Kilby Miller
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: would be the number one recipient of that benefit benefit
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: so I think Miller actually would have taken that over
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: this year if he hadn't had the back issues but
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: the back issues do also scare me so I think
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: it's a bigger ceiling lower floor for Miller and but
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: Kilby I think he's going to also kind of go
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: the Anthony Volpe route where there's going to be a
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: lot of pressure on him as a Yankees prospect. So
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: something to consider, but the tools are all there in
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: that shed. Okay. The next pair of players we have
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: is there's always like a handful of these dudes at
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: the AFL that kind of come out of nowhere. They
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: start showing up and putting themselves on people's radars last year,
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: like Esmeralda Valdez, Max Anderson were these types of players.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: So the two that we've got this year, they're both
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: 22 years old. The first one is Tao Banks. Well,
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: he's actually 23, but it was his age 22 season
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: this year. He is an outfielder in the national system
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: and not exactly the greatest year at high A with
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: a 90 WRC plus. But in the Arizona Fall League,
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: he has shown up in 60 plate appearances, 364, 400,
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: 564 slash line. Actually, I'll note that is also the
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: Salt River effect, maybe possibly too. He's on that Salt
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: River team as he's got three homers and two doubles
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: with four stolen bases. But this is a guy that
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: has also looked pretty good underneath the hood where the
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: contact rate has been good enough. The strikeout rates are
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: low and he has a max EV of 109.5 right now.
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: The other guy is a 22-year-old who also turned 23. Actually,
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: their birthdays are five days apart. That's kind of freaky.
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: Kyle DeBarge of the Minnesota Twins, a scrappy infielder utility guy.
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: I think he'll probably be like a second baseman slash
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: play everywhere across the diamond, kind of a Caleb Durbin-esque player.
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: He's been looking great with a. 356,. 492,. 578 slash
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: line in. 455. at bats. Oh, actually he's on salt
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: river as well. Two homers, two doubles, one triple with
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: five stolen bases, but 15 strikeouts against 11 walks. And
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: this is a guy who at double a did struggle
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: a little bit this year, 76 WRC plus, but swiped
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: 41 bags and popped 12 homers there. So if you
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: were to pick one between banks and the barge, Which
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: one do you like better and kind of what makes
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: their profile stand out in their performance here in the
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: AFL maybe compared to the other?
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, if I'm picking here, I'm going to
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: barge over Banks. Banks, you know, it's hard to look
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: at what he did in the minors and not consider
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: what he's doing in the AFL just like a hot
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: streak or the shift rules or something like that. He just,
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: he did not produce power, didn't produce a whole lot
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: of speed. And so, like, I would need to see
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: a lot more from him. DeBarge does kind of reek
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: of that quasi-utility kind of guy that has done enough,
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: and he gets on base, but the speed has been decent.
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: Not the most proficient base dealer, but he's barely managed...
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: He's never hit 240 at any level, and so that
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: to me is a big concern. He's got a decent
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: amount of swing and miss. I almost... I want to
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: say this is almost like a Kat Von Biggio profile
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: to a degree, which is like, it looks like, and
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: I haven't looked under the profile to see like, is
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: he ultra, ultra conservative from a swinging perspective? He walks
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: a decent amount and strikes out a decent amount and
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: just is not hitting for the average that we need
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: to see. And so, you know, maybe, maybe with David Fletcher,
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: I feel like there's some, some intrigue here, but I
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: need to see a heck of a lot more from him.
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: to know that he's actually going to find his way
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: into that team for Minnesota.
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that is fair. The one thing that
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: does stand out in DeBarge's profile that does make it
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: feel that way is a 64% zone swing percentage. So
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: he is just watching a lot. Also not chasing 21%
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: chase rate. Where Banks actually, he's got some pretty good
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: exit VLOs. So like I said, the 109.5 max EV range,
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: The bat speed is at 73.4%, but also good zone
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: contact of 97%, where DeBarge's is actually only 82%. So
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: I think DeBarge will probably struggle once he gets up
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: to AAA. Tao Banks, though, more of like a watch
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: list guy where this dude is going to be a
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: fourth outfielder somewhere and probably have like a year or
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: two that'll pop. But it's going to take a lot
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: of dominoes to fall for Banks, I think, to get
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: a shot somewhere.
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd agree.
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: Then there's two that I just kind of want to
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: call out because we've been on them. We've been on
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: them all summer and they're showing up in Arizona and
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: also shelling out two of the 10 youngest bats right
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: now in the Arizona Fall League out of, let me see,
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: it looks like there's 95 total hitters, just to give
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: you a sense. The youngest is Anhe Balgones from the
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: Kansas City Royal System outfielder, 17 years old, one of
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: the youngest players that has been in the Arizona Fall
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: League in quite some time. Uh, this is a guy
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: that I've gushed a lot about on the pod. Um,
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: if there's any chance that he's available in your dynasty
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: or keeper leagues, go now, like go get him now. Cause, uh,
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: this dude's a top five prospect. I think next year,
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: like he's might make it to the majors by like
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: 19 for Kansas city. Cause they have no outfielders he's
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: hitting and holding his own. Like he's playing really well.
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: Three 33, four 21, uh, 485 slash line in 38
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: at bats or 38 plate appearances with four stolen bases,
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: eight K's versus four walks. Gomez is something special. Am
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: I getting too hyped about this profile?
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: No, I i don't think so and i don't know
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: if it's the royalsness of it all but like carlos
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: beltran comps like anybody like that that feels kind of
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: like who who he has the potential to be and
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: he is so young for all for where he's at
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: and he just looks so mature it's it's hard to
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: not dream on this guy like Yeah, this could probably
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: be a guy that's in the top five or ten
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: prospects for the next two years as they're really trying
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: to move him through the system. But it's going to
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: be in that Leo DeVries range. When's he going to
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: make it up? Is he going to force the hand?
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: I know it was just in the developmental league and
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: now just the AFL, but everything has just looked so strong.
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: If he starts at AA next year, I think he
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: could be successful. Like, and so, yeah, I, I, I
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: think he's, he's going to be flying up dynasty rankings
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: for sure.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, this dude was in the DSL all summer
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: and he's at the AFL holding his own. All those
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: scouting reports have been really positive as well. So yeah,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: on headball Gomez is the next dude. I think the
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: other one that's really shelling out 19 year old Nathan
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: Flewelling or let me check. Cause I've been looking at
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: these stats and baseball reference and they give you the
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: player age. like the age of their season as opposed
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: to their actual age, which is why I've been kind
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: of having to correct myself here and there. But this
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: one is actually, he's 19, doesn't turn 20 for almost
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: two weeks on the dot on November 11th. But Flewelling
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: has been holding his own in the fall league with
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: a 327, 403, 364 slash line. No homers in his
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: 62 plate appearances, but 14 strikeouts against seven walks. 10 RBI,
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: two stolen bases. This is a guy that should be
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: catcher and first base eligible when he makes it all
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: the way through. A guy that we loved his work
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: in high A. I think this is showing how quickly
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: the Rays are feeling about moving Flewelling up the board,
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: I think. So I wouldn't be, I mean, honestly, he
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: should open the season at double A. And given that
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: it's going to be a little bit more difficult for
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: him because now that they have Liam Hicks blocking him,
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: maybe they pump the brakes a little bit on Flewelling
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: as opposed to before Hicks arrived. Like you could have
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: talked yourself into Flewelling being their catcher by the end
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: of next year, but the talent and the bad is
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: so good that you could also see the Rays like
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: moving on from Jonathan Aranda before that contract, before he
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: becomes a free agent or something like that, that, they'll
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: find a way to get Flewelling up quickly. So what
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: have you, what's your thoughts on Flewelling making good in
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: the AFL right now?
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, I think we've, we've espoused the, the
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: everything he's been able to do in the minors. And
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: I think your, your point's right. Like the raise for all,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: you know, the rain is the thing that they can be,
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: you know, there's not the clearest path playing time, but
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: this is the kind of guy that they would love
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: to bring up. And like, they're going to play him
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: in the outfield and the first base and the catcher
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: and Like, they're just going to kind of move him
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: around and get him in the lineup, and he's got
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: the power to really make a difference. Like, you know,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: I don't want to say watching the team in the
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: World Series right now that he would be making a difference, but, like,
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: they do miss a big power bat. Like, I know
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: Caminero's a pretty good one, but, like, the lineup could
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: be a lot more dangerous with, like, a got him in,
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: in the rotation. So in the rotation, the lineup, but
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: I do think he, he's got a spot next year.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: I think he's just going to have to work it
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: out and make, make them get them into the starting lineup.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree. And let's go over to the
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: pitching side now, because I've got six pitchers. I got
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: three that I think will feature and then three where
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: it's kind of, you'll see that this is a little
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: bit more of like that archetype in terms of the,
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: Banks and DeBarge breakouts. But the bigger thing here is
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: like when you see good pitching, like good pitching is
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: good pitching. And so you're looking at guys who have
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: a chance at making rosters, I think, in 2027. Let's start, though,
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: with the big name that has been in the Arizona
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: Fall League and the number one pitcher that everybody's been
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: wanting to watch. It's Harleen Susana from the Washington Nationals,
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: has been working his way back after that lat surgery
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: at the beginning of the season. It was a little
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: bit of a slow go because he has a four
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: and a half ERA through 16 innings, but he also
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: has 20 Ks and a 113 whip while the fastball
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: has been almost touching 104. So it's very Mizorowski-ian. And
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: on top of it, I think if you're looking for
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: a guy that isn't like that mold of the next Mizorowski,
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: this was literally like one of the, The name of
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: the piece that I wrote most recently for Baseball Perspectives
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: was Finding the Next Miz. You probably, Harleen Susana is
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: not a bad kind of dart to throw because you're
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: looking at a big old framed guy, 6'6, 235, just
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: the way that Mizorowski is big and lanky. He does
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: have control issues the way that Mizorowski did when he
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: was coming up. And he certainly did in his first
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: few outings for the Arizona Fall League, but has been
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: looking much sharper lately. This is a guy who, before
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: that lat surgery, was in discussion to maybe break into
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: the Nationals rotation this year. So I love Susana. I'm
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: going to be picking him up on 20-27 teams just
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: for that strikeout upside. I think he's showing you exactly
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: what you needed, especially because the K's have been getting
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: reeled in more and more that like the whip has
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: been dropping and it's also dropping because he's untouchable. So
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: what is your insight here to Harleen Susana and his
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: performance in the NFL?
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: Well, first of all, you just made the comparison. Mussarowski
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: just came out of the World Series. It looks like
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: hurt himself. So we, we will, we will update later
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: as we, as we, as we learn more there. But
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: this is what it looks like. He kind of slid
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: on the mound when he made a pitch, but from
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: a Susana perspective, that's been terrible. Yeah, exactly. But from
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: a Susana perspective, like he, you're absolutely right. He has
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: high octane stuff, ton of potential. It's really comes down to,
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: can he be a starter? Like, I think that's the
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: biggest question. and that's been a team that's been looking
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: for some high-end bullpen help, and so I don't know
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: that I see him lasting as a starter. I think
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: Mizorowski is an outlier, not the norm in this kind
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: of profile, and so I think he ends up being
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: a reliever long-term. I think he ends up being a
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: closer long-term, probably a lights-out closer. There's nothing wrong with that.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: I just, I don't know that he's going to be
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: the kind of guy that is going to go deep
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: enough into games. I think he's going to probably, that
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: control is going to hold him back. Ultimately, you're going
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: to get more from him value-wise in the bullpen. Doesn't
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: mean it's not a guy you invest in. Like, actually,
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: I almost invest more in him as a reliever than
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: as a starter because I think He's just not going
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: to go deep enough in the games as a starter,
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: whereas I think he could come in inning two, fireman roll,
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: strike out five guys in two innings, like Mason Miller style.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: Definitely a different physical profile of the two guys, but
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: I think Susana, he's showing it right now. He's going
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: to be dangerous, and he's going to be in the
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: majors next year for sure.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, he's pretty similar size to Mason Miller.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: Mason Miller's also 6'5, 200, so Susana's a little bit bigger,
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: but Um, I don't think you can go wrong with
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: Susana because of that, that if he can't reel it
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: in and become a starter, he's a lights out closer.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: So it's a great path either way. So that's why
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: I'm also feeling pretty good. I have more faith that
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: Susana can figure it out. Just that like, he hasn't
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: thrown a ton of innings since 2024. And so getting
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: that back under his belt and getting used to just
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: being on a mound and pitching every fifth day will
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: be huge. Um, The other picture that's really stood out,
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: let's talk some more St. Louis Cardinals baseball. People are
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: going to probably get annoyed by us by the end
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: of this offseason with how hype we're going to be
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: on the Cardinals. Takoa Roby is putting it all together
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: right now in the Arizona Fall League. If that name
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: sounds familiar, it's because he was traded a couple of
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: years ago. From the Texas Rangers, he came over along
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: with Thomas Sejasi when they traded Jordan Montgomery during the
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: deadline deal. Roby has been out, though, with Tommy John
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: surgery and just other issues. This year had not gotten
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: back on a mound at all in any affiliated ball,
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: but in the AFL, absolutely shoving nine and two thirds
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: innings with still has not given up a run. 13
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: strikeouts against one walk. So he's been absolutely untouchable. All
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: the reports have been really good. This is a guy
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: who I really liked when the Cardinals brought him over.
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: 25 years old, live arm. And honestly, he's going to
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: be making a run for consideration in that Cardinals rotation
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: going to 2027. You couldn't have expected anything better out
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: of Roby, right? Like, is this a guy that you're
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: actually feeling pretty good about going into 27 now?
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he's really intriguing because ever since he
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: came to St. Louis, he has really shown... that he
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: has better than we expected control. And the strikeouts have
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: kind of stuck as he's moved up the rankings. Like
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: the health has probably been the biggest question mark. And
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: so that said, this is a rotation that there shouldn't
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: be plenty of opportunities. I fully expect the Cardinals to
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: bring in the Dustin May type guy to try to
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: trade him at the deadline and pick up some more
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: prospects next year. They're going to be in another rebuild year.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: They've basically already declared that that's one more year of
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: this rebuild. So I would absolutely expect him to be
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: getting a full look in spring training. And he's going
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: to probably be used multiple times throughout the season next year.
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: And we're talking about a guy that strikeouts one per inning,
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: You know, he has a chance to keep the walks
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: into like a probably three. three per inning with a
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: decent ground ball rate, like good velocity. Like there's a
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: lot to like in this profile. So I think he's,
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: he's going to kind of go under radars because he
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: just didn't pitch in 26 and we need to see
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: him kind of build back up. And so wouldn't be
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: surprised in spot starts, maybe a bullpen role in 27
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: as he, as he kind of builds things back up.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: So I think Roby is a under the radar guy
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: for sure. But what we're seeing in the AFL is,
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: is incredibly, incredibly exciting. Yeah.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: I totally agree. So the last guy that I want
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: to feature, I think he's probably a step down from
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: those other two in Roby and Susana, but mostly want
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: to call it out because of opportunity going forward and
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: a bit of the prospect pedigree. It's Miguel Mendez for
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: the San Francisco Giants now that he was traded in
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: that Robbie Ray deal from the Padres to the Giants.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: And he is very spindly. He's listed. on Fangraphs as 6'2, 165.
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: And sometimes when you see the heights and weights, you're like,
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: sometimes it doesn't line up because this dude is just
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: like clearly filled out since he was signed out of
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: the international signing period. Mendez is not that. He is
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: spindly as all get out. He might actually be just 165,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: but it's a pretty live arm here. You've got a
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: K rate that has been 32.6%, 33.3% whiff rate. And
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: the swinging strike rate has also been 17.9%, which has
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: been fantastic. Sitting 92 or 96.2 on the gun with
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: a wicked, wicked slider. Mostly calling this out because, I mean,
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: he was pretty much the next man up for the
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: Padres in terms of like rotation at points this year
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: when he was down in double A. struggled a little
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: bit when he came over to San Francisco with an
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: 844 ERA over 10 and two thirds innings there. But
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: I think he's going to be in the discussion for
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: the back end of the Giants rotation. The results have
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: been a little bit more middling at the Arizona Fall
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: League with nine and a third innings with an ERA
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: of 482. But the strikeouts have been there. 14 strikeouts
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: against six walks. So the walks are a little bit high,
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: but nasty, nasty stuff. What do you think about Mendez
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: going to 27?
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think, you know, I think Mendez is a
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: little bit more of a wild card for me. The
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: walks are going to be concerned. And he does, he's
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: a little more on the fly ball pitcher side of things,
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: but that can play in San Francisco. He also just,
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: he has not had a season where he's really, he
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: has not broached a hundred innings yet. And so I
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: think there's still a buildup that truly is needed here.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: So I think this is definitely a guy on the
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: watch list. The stuff is good, but yeah, I think
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: I need to see a little bit more control. I
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: need to see a little more length. I need to
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: see a little bit more of keeping the ball, the
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: ball down for things to really work. And I think
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: I said San Francisco, but I'm in San Diego earlier
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: where he's going to be pitching. Actually, I'm sorry. He's
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: San Francisco.
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: I flipped it. I flipped it. I was looking at
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 2: his 25 stat line too. But like, I, I think
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 2: he can play and that's not the hardest rotation to
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: kind of break into, but I still see him a
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: little bit more of a, or project they've still got
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: to develop. But to your point, like it's, it's raw,
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: good stuff. It, I just see there's a pretty wide
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: variation of outcomes. And so I'm not investing heavily for 27.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: It's definitely more on the watch list for me for 27. Okay. Yeah.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: I think that's fair. Also you don't, we're not talking
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: about him as a closer because Randy Rodriguez has actually
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: been throwing in the AFL and looking good that the
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: fastballs up to 95 miles an hour. And it's a
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: high spin, high ride fastball. Randy Rodriguez is going to
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: be locked in as the as the Giants closer, I think,
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: for twenty twenty seven. Didn't pitch at all this year
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: because he was recovering from elbow surgery. But yeah, he's
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: looked great and is going to be honestly really highly drafted.
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: I think it's going to kind of blow people's minds
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: how quickly he rises up draft boards for twenty twenty
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: seven because he's been looking so good here. Okay.
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: I'm already investing in them. I think it's a great.
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Okay. Well there, there's a, there's another ringing endorsement. Okay. Let's,
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: so then we've got a kind of three pack of pitchers.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: I want to get your thoughts on. So we've got
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: Dominic Reed from the Chicago Cubs, Patrick Riley from the
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: Baltimore Orioles and Luke Holman from the Cincinnati Reds, mostly
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: because this is exactly what you want to see in
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: some of these ball league performances are pitchers, that have
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: been kind of kicking around the minor leagues for a
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: little bit on the fringes of the rotations and are
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: taking a step forward. So let's start with Dominic Reid
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: in that Cubs system, which is also big because actually
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: all three of these systems that we're going to talk about,
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: they've got thin major league pitching staffs. And so you
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: could see these guys rise rapidly. Reid topped out at
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: high A this year for the Cubs through 53 and
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: two thirds innings. with a 386 ERA and a 23.7%
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate, has been shoving here in
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: the AFL with a 1.8 ERA over 10 innings, with
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: 18 Ks against four walks. All the reports on him
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: and the other guys, actually, I read the wrong stats.
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: That was the next guy we're going to talk about
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: that I just rattled up. Patrick Raleigh, that was his stats,
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: the 1.8 ERA, 10 Ks. I'll repeat it when we
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: get to Riley. So let's read for read. It's actually
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: a three 46 ERA over 13 innings with 17 Ks
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: versus eight walks. So not quite as sterling, but all
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: the reports have been pretty good. The other component here too,
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: is because you're getting some of those salt river starts
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: in there and just the ball flying in Arizona because
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: of the altitude and thin air you get performances where,
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: The scouting reports matter a lot. So Dominic Reed has
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: looked good, according to the scouts that have been out there.
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: Patrick Riley, like I just said with those stats, 1.8
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: ERA over 10 innings with 18 Ks to four walks
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: has also looked fantastic. And that's great because the Baltimore
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: Orioles need pitchers. And Riley could be in that conversation
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: going to 2027. Topped out a double A this year,
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: 53 innings. with a 5.09 ERA, but that was also
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: buoyed because of some bad work coming back through the
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: complex league and high A coming off of an elbow injury.
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: And a big-time strikeout rate, 30.6%, and it's been showing
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: up again in the fall league. Everything's looked good from
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: the scouting report, where people are really raving about Riley.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: The other one that's getting good reports is Luke Holman
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: of the Reds. It's the Cincinnati Reds. They never have
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: enough pitchers, and so Holman... Could be right in that
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: conversation after his performance in the AFL. It has been a.
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: 82 ERA over 11 innings with 17 Ks to 6 walks. He,
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: this year, was only at complex ball. And part of this, too,
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: is that he has been banged up and is coming
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: his way back right now. It looks like he was
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: battling groin issues and other things like that. was a
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: competitive round B pick in 2024 out of LSU, so
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: has great pedigree. And at LSU in his final season,
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: put up 91 and two-thirds innings with a 275 ERA
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: and a 33.7% strikeout rate. So this three-pack between Reed, Riley, Holman,
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: Who sounds the most interesting to you? Any of them
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: really stand out? Or is this also a case where
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: you're adding all three of them actively to your watch
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: list as I've been writing off the stats? So you're
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: feeling pretty good about all of them.
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, there's probably not a huge separation between
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: the group. They all are watch list material, I think
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: is a good way to look at it. If I'm
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: going to pick one, for me, it's probably Dominic Reid.
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: I think he looks like The stuff is a little
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: bit stronger. He's had a little more success when he
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: was in the college ranks. And so I think he's
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: got a little more development path to really refine and
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: grow Riley. I think there's some, some quality there, but
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 2: I think it's more of a Spencer or Getty type
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: of comp, which is really some, some nasty stuff, but
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: he might get hit, killed by the fly ball control
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 2: needs some work. And so I think that he's a,
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: a high variability outcome guy. and Holman where I really like,
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: I just don't like the pitchers in Cincinnati and he's
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: not a blow you away type of guy. And so
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: he's going to play more on the contact world. And
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: I just don't see that playing terribly well in Cincinnati. So,
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: I want to say I'm picking Reed and it's more
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 2: because Riley and Holman have a bigger concern than really
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 2: Reed is like the guy that's standing out. These stuff
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: actually probably looked better. I think in the, in the
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: AFL of all of them. But I think they're all valuable,
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: viable guys to be watching over the next year, year
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: and a half. But I think Reed has just a very,
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: very slight tick up for me.
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: How about you?
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: Where are you at with these guys?
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: I think I'm a little bit more of a Riley guy,
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: mostly just because I like to chase the upside a
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: little bit more where I think read is going to
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: be the, the range of outcomes is more narrow as
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: opposed to like Riley. It's like, like it's Spencer or Getty.
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: So like, yeah, it could be like a 15 K
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: outing or it could be a total disaster. But I
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: also like his pathway to getting into the rotation in
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: Baltimore as well as like, you know, he's still honing
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: things in after the elbow injury. So that's good. Uh,
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: Holman's kind of also right there too, just cause the,
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: he was so good at, at LSU, but like has
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: not been able to stay on the mound while he's
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: been with the reds very long. So you've got that
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: as well as the Cincinnati factor that, uh, you know,
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: I think that the, what makes all three of these
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: guys intriguing is that all three of them have a
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: lot of pathway to being like huge breakouts next year.
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: So you're going to want to just kind of keep
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: track of that as well as like, they all came
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: from big pedigree systems. Riley from Vandy Holman from LSU,
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: Dominic Reed was at Oklahoma state, then finished at Albion Christian.
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: So these guys like they're big time pitchers. They've got
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: good frames. This is exactly the type of guys where
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: probably not draftable going to 27, but when they start,
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: there's murmurings of them, maybe, getting a spot start at
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: some point in the season, jump on them quickly. Cause
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: I think all three of these guys could rapidly rise
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: up and be much better than what they've been in
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: the past because of what they've shown in the AFL
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: and putting some of the injury history behind them.
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: Well, looking for once you, you, you taking the risky
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: picture versus there's me taking the risky picture. So look
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: at that.
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: I'll, I'll, I'll do it with minor leaguers more when
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: there's not the injury history.
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: I like to roll the dice in the majors. Go
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: big or go home.
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: Yes, exactly.
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: Well, yeah. Great little chat from the Arizona Fall League.
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to seeing some of these guys at
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: the All-Star Game, hopefully, and getting some eyes on them
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: next weekend at First Pits Arizona. We're going to wrap
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: it up here. Brew, let everybody know where they can
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: find you on socials.
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: Yep. Find me on Twitter, xBlueskyJBrewer17. Cooley, where can folks
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: find you?
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: You can find me on blue sky at M cool
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: seven spelled C O U I L L. Like my
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: last name, read my work on baseball prospectus running all
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: off season. So I'm going to be up and writing.
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: They're giving insights on 2026 wraps and dives on guys
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: to draft in 2027. Just kind of like this. You
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: can find the podcast on blue sky at cards categories.
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: You can email the podcast at cards, categories at gmail.com.
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: If you're in those show notes, you can find links
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: to some of the stuff that we've talked about, but
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: you can also find the link to our store with
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: gear of cards and categories logos. And it looks like
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: this World Series is going to be wrapping up maybe
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: pretty soon. Bomb of the 7th right now with the
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: Brewers up for nothing. They finally did stop Cooper Pratt,
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: but it was a sack fly. So Cooper Pratt might
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: be working his way into that MVP race. I guess
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: we'll kind of see. how things settle with Aaron Ashby
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: here in the last game.
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: And I was, I was just about to say Wilson Contreras,
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: my husband would say, cause he just knocked it around,
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: but then he just also threw it completely over Jake
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: Bowers head into right field. So we'll, we'll see enough.
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: I'm like putting Chandler Simpson on for fun.
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: So yeah.
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: Just to make it a little interesting. We gotta get,
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: we gotta, we can't have no drama, but it will
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: be cool to see if the brewers do wrap it up.
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: If they, are able to put together and get their
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: first world series. That'll be huge. Like that'll be big
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: for the Milwaukee Brewers and Milwaukee overall. But yeah, that's
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: going to wrap us up for this week. Thanks for
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: checking us out. Rate and review us wherever you're listening
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: to us. And we'll be back roughly same time, same
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: place next week. Take care, everybody.