Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / PIIE's Kirkegaard: Brexit Driven By Anti-Immigrant Views(Audio)

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PIIE's Kirkegaard: Brexit Driven By Anti-Immigrant Views(Audio) · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to Taking Stock with Kathleen Hayes and Pim
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  Speaker 1: Fox on Bloomberg Radio. Grexits remain? Will the UK vote
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  Speaker 1: to leave the European Union just one week from today,
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  Speaker 1: and if they do, what does it mean not only
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  Speaker 1: for the United Kingdom but for the rest of Europe.
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  Speaker 1: Jacob Kirkgard joined US now senior fellow at the Peterson
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  Speaker 1: Institute for International Economics in Washington, d C. He has
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  Speaker 1: been writing a great deal about fears over immigration and
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  Speaker 1: what they and how they play into this Brexit vote. Jacob, welcome,
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  Speaker 1: great to be here, but I actually want to start
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  Speaker 1: by asking you, um, the death of UK opposition Labor
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  Speaker 1: Party lawmaker Joe Cox today, killed by a man who
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  Speaker 1: is in favor of leaving the European Union. Uh does
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  Speaker 1: this Do you think this impact sentiment in the UK
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  Speaker 1: at all on this vote? Oh? I don't think there's
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  Speaker 1: any doubt that it will. I mean, I think we
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  Speaker 1: we just have to be running the risk of being
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  Speaker 1: very cynical here. But you have a forty two year old,
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  Speaker 1: very photogenic mother of two killed as part of a
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  Speaker 1: political process in a country that is highly unaccustomed to
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  Speaker 1: political violence. So I think you'll have an enormous impact. Frankly,
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  Speaker 1: I think it would be very difficult to restart the
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  Speaker 1: campaigning again. You know, maybe after the weekend or something
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  Speaker 1: like that without continuingly coming back to this issue. And
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  Speaker 1: it will also, in my opinion therefore drive turnout at
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  Speaker 1: the campaign on next to Thursday, because people will feel
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  Speaker 1: very emotional about it. So I think this is this
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  Speaker 1: is a really really big deal for this campaign. Jacob
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  Speaker 1: paint as a scenario of leaving and staying and what
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  Speaker 1: happens to the British economy in both scenarios, um well,
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  Speaker 1: starting with the easiest of the two scenarios, which will
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  Speaker 1: be if Britain votes to remain. In that case, I
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  Speaker 1: would predict basically the majority of the status quo UH continues.
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  Speaker 1: I think you would see a slight bounce back in
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  Speaker 1: the second half of this year by the UK economy.
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  Speaker 1: You will have a sort of pent up investments being released.
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  Speaker 1: You would see a swing back in the value of
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  Speaker 1: the pound and and equities etcetera, which have obviously been
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  Speaker 1: weighed down by uncertainty. But at the same time, I
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  Speaker 1: think the reality is that this campaign will have, especially
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  Speaker 1: after today's tragic events, will have made or or made
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  Speaker 1: the country split even more over the issue of immigration,
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  Speaker 1: and that includes both the Conservative and the Labor Party.
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  Speaker 1: So fundamentally, in the long run, the UK will have
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  Speaker 1: become a more difficult place to govern after this campaign. UM. Now,
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  Speaker 1: if there is a vote to leave UH, then I
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  Speaker 1: am certainly in the camp who believes that this is
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  Speaker 1: a very bad economic news for the UK, because I
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  Speaker 1: believe two things will happen. First of all, given that
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  Speaker 1: a Leave victory will be driven predominantly by anti immigration
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  Speaker 1: sentiment UH, and that the lead campaign have essentially locked
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  Speaker 1: themselves into a future, depending on who you ask there
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  Speaker 1: of reducing net migration to the UK of between seventy
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  Speaker 1: to UH. That is a low immigration future for the UK,
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  Speaker 1: which is means is very bad for growth UH and
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  Speaker 1: a lot of other things in the UK. Secondly, by
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  Speaker 1: focusing so much on immigration, the UK has essentially ruled
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  Speaker 1: out the possibility of securing a free trade agreement or
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  Speaker 1: access to the internal market or any broader economic RelA
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  Speaker 1: relationship would the rest of the EU, because the one
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  Speaker 1: of the demands from the EU faily be that UH
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  Speaker 1: you migration be allowed to continue. UH. So this is
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  Speaker 1: a situation where, probably after about two years of UH,
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  Speaker 1: potentially like the futile negotiations, the UK would simply drop
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  Speaker 1: out of the EU and then simply trade with the
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  Speaker 1: rest of the EU as any other member of the
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  Speaker 1: w t O. So, Jacob, you know you say this
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  Speaker 1: is primarily driven by an immigration anti immigration movement. However,
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  Speaker 1: this has been going on for at least what at
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  Speaker 1: least a decade, if not a generation. There had been
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  Speaker 1: your skeptics for a long time. There have been many
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  Speaker 1: people not just in in UH, in London or in
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  Speaker 1: the UK who worry about sovereignty and actually trying to
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  Speaker 1: turn over some power over the laws of your of
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  Speaker 1: your land to a body that is not really your government.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, is it really just immigration? I mean, or
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  Speaker 1: do you think you've gotten as far if it were,
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  Speaker 1: or are you saying, oh, this is the thing that
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  Speaker 1: really heated it up lately. Yeah, No, this is essentially
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  Speaker 1: the fuel. Anti immigration sentiment is the fuel that has
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  Speaker 1: made this referendum close. You're absolutely right that there has
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  Speaker 1: always been ever since the UK joined, a significant part
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  Speaker 1: of the UK UH population and the representatives that have
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  Speaker 1: been very strongly against you membership, but they have never
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  Speaker 1: come close to being the majority. That is something that
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  Speaker 1: is relatively recent and in my opinion, is overwhelmingly driven
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  Speaker 1: by UH anti immigrant sentiment in significant parts of the
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  Speaker 1: UK population. Thank you very much for sharing your thoughts
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  Speaker 1: with us. Jacob Curecard is a Senior Fellow at the
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  Speaker 1: Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, d C. You
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  Speaker 1: can follow him on Twitter at j F Kirker Guard
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  Speaker 1: and we want to thank him for his perspective on
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  Speaker 1: what may or may not happen. We know that Brexit
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  Speaker 1: is a vote that we will all be watching. We
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  Speaker 1: will be covering it around the clock. UH twenty three
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  Speaker 1: of June voters in the United Kingdom go to the polls.
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