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US bombers withdraw from Fairford airbase · DEEP INSIGHT

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  Speaker 1: Hello, I'm Lewis Vaughan-Jones. This is the Iran War Today,
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  Speaker 1: bringing you right up to date with all you need
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  Speaker 1: to know on the US-Israel war with Iran. Let's start
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  Speaker 1: with some of today's key developments. The US withdraws all
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  Speaker 1: its bombers from RAF Fairford in the UK. The airbase
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  Speaker 1: had been used on missions to Iran. Yemen's government forces,
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  Speaker 1: supported by Saudi Arabia, attack the capital, Sana'a. They're trying
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  Speaker 1: to take the city from the Iran-backed Houthi movement. We'll
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  Speaker 1: look at the state of the Iranian economy as a
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  Speaker 1: top national security official warns the country is facing one
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  Speaker 1: of its most difficult periods. The United States has withdrawn
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  Speaker 1: all its bombers from Fairford Air Base in England, which
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  Speaker 1: was the target of a suspected terror plot. The American
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  Speaker 1: aircraft had used RAF Fairford to launch missions to Iraq.
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  Speaker 1: The bombers have now been redeployed to their home stations
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  Speaker 1: in the US. Last week, British authorities declared a major
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  Speaker 1: incident after intercepting vans apparently on their way to the base.
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  Speaker 1: Six people were arrested, but they were then released on
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  Speaker 1: police bail. The US Secretary of State has played down
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  Speaker 1: any link between this and the warplanes removal. With me
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  Speaker 1: to try and explain all this is our security correspondent,
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  Speaker 1: Frank Gardner. Hi, Frank. Good to see you. So what
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  Speaker 1: is your assessment of what's going on here?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, you're right. It's highly confused and there's still more
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  Speaker 2: questions than answers. So the bombers left in a great
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  Speaker 2: rush yesterday evening at last light. And we only found
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  Speaker 2: out about 11 o'clock at night. The Pentagon waited until
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  Speaker 2: they were all clear of UK skies and on their
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  Speaker 2: way back before they confirmed it. And they didn't say
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  Speaker 2: what the reason was. But unnamed U.S. officials have told U.S.
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  Speaker 2: media that it was prompted by a fresh intelligence threat report.
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  Speaker 1: There was already a.
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  Speaker 2: High state of alert at this particular British airbase in
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  Speaker 2: southwest UK, a place called Gloucestershire at Fairford. That existed even, what,
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  Speaker 2: two weeks ago. Some media reporting that it was based
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  Speaker 2: on an Israeli tip-off to both Germany and the UK,
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  Speaker 2: that bases there could be under threat. Iran, it's important
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  Speaker 2: to note, has denied any involvement in any alleged plot here.
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  Speaker 2: But the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the SEPA, the IRGC,
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  Speaker 2: they did issue a warning specifically to Britain in July saying, look,
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  Speaker 2: any country that allows its bases to be used to
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  Speaker 2: attack us will be considered by us to be a
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  Speaker 2: legitimate target. And what Fairford is being used for was
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  Speaker 2: for the U.S. to use its B-1 bombers and B-52
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  Speaker 2: to strike Iran's missile launch sites that were hitting shipping
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  Speaker 2: and other neighboring states.
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  Speaker 1: And what does this mean now for relations between the
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  Speaker 1: UK and the US and the US's confidence in UK
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  Speaker 1: air bases?
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  Speaker 2: The relations in public are so rosy that I'm almost suspicious.
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  Speaker 2: So we've had comments from 10 Downing Street, the seat
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  Speaker 2: of Britain's, the British government, saying there's absolutely no risk
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  Speaker 2: to security, our bases are perfectly safe. Well, they weren't
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  Speaker 2: two years ago because Palestine Action announced activists were able
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  Speaker 2: to break in undetected on scooters and go up and
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  Speaker 2: cause damage to RAF planes. I mean, they've since been convicted,
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  Speaker 2: but the fact is they got in and got out undetected.
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  Speaker 2: Since then, security has supposedly been ramped up. Marco Rubio,
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  Speaker 2: the US Secretary of State, has said, look, we've got
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  Speaker 2: good security at all our bases and we're particularly pleased
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  Speaker 2: the Brits have worked really well with us. So clearly,
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  Speaker 2: I think there is an attempt on both sides of
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  Speaker 2: the Atlantic not to present any kind of a rift transatlantically.
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  Speaker 2: But look, the fact is they have gone from a
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  Speaker 2: base where there is an underlying extant threat. That's not
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  Speaker 2: to say that intruders could get through the perimeter fence,
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  Speaker 2: but the fact that some people may allegedly be trying
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  Speaker 2: means that since these bombers were not actually particularly busy,
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  Speaker 2: the bombing phase is largely over in the U.S.-Iran confrontation.
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  Speaker 2: It's an economic battle now with the U.S. trying to
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  Speaker 2: choke off Iran's exports and Iran trying to retaliate by
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  Speaker 2: whether it's the Bab al-Mandeb or other measures.
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  Speaker 1: Frank, thank you very much for talking us through that. Well,
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  Speaker 1: we're going to head to the US now. Our State
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  Speaker 1: Department correspondent, Tom Bateman, is standing by for us. Tom,
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  Speaker 1: what are you hearing from the US about this?
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  Speaker 3: Well, I think what we're seeing politically now is an
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  Speaker 3: attempt really to play down the significance of what has
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  Speaker 3: taken place. You heard, as Frank was saying, the way
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  Speaker 3: that Secretary of State Marco Rubio has spoken about this
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  Speaker 3: in the last couple of hours. He was flying to Europe,
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  Speaker 3: first to Iceland, and was asked about the redeployment of
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  Speaker 3: these bombers and said that there wasn't any direct tie,
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  Speaker 3: he said, between the operation, the arrests of last weekend
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  Speaker 3: in the UK and this movement of the bombers and
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  Speaker 3: sort of seemed to suggest that the press were making
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  Speaker 3: more of that connection than potentially was the reality. And
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  Speaker 3: also the vice president, J.D. Vance, also speaking to reporters
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  Speaker 3: in the last hour or so, has said, that this
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  Speaker 3: was done out of, in his words, an abundance of caution,
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  Speaker 3: but did go on to talk about, as he put it,
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  Speaker 3: a terrorist threat from the Iranians that existed for many
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  Speaker 3: decades and put it in that context. So I was
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  Speaker 3: quite surprised yesterday by how quickly the Pentagon confirmed this
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  Speaker 3: redeployment and at some length and went on to say,
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  Speaker 3: you know, to stress this point that these B-1 bombers
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  Speaker 3: were now bases back at US stations, but with the
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  Speaker 3: ability to strike out globally, they said at a moment's notice.
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  Speaker 3: The Pentagon doesn't, you know, it chooses when it chooses
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  Speaker 3: to confirm things quite selectively. It has a highly controlled
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  Speaker 3: communications operation under Defence Secretary Peter Hegseth. So it was significant,
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  Speaker 3: I think, that they quite quickly acknowledged this movement. What
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  Speaker 3: we're seeing today feels like a bit of an attempt
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  Speaker 3: to sort of massage the message from the the rest
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  Speaker 3: of the administration, which I think is potentially aimed at
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  Speaker 3: Tehran to say, look, you know, we're not on the
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  Speaker 3: run here. And this is a perfectly sort of normal
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  Speaker 3: part of the rotation of assets and aircraft.
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  Speaker 1: Tom, that's really useful. Thank you. Now, Yemen's government forces
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  Speaker 1: say they've started an offensive on the capital Sana'a in
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  Speaker 1: an effort to retake the city from the Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
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  Speaker 1: comes after a Saudi-led coalition said it hit hundreds of
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  Speaker 1: targets in an attempt to reverse the advances made last
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  Speaker 1: month by the Houthis. Yemeni government forces also say they've
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  Speaker 1: seized strategic positions on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and driven
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  Speaker 1: Houthi fighters back from the waterway there. For more on that,
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  Speaker 1: here's Nawal Al-Moghafi from BBC Arabic.
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  Speaker 4: So much has happened in Yemen over the weekend. In fact,
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  Speaker 4: Right now, we are watching one of the biggest escalations
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  Speaker 4: in years. Yemeni government forces, backed by Saudi Arabia, have
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  Speaker 4: launched a major offensive against the Houthis, and they say
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  Speaker 4: that they've now secured the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. And that
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  Speaker 4: matters far beyond Yemen, because if you look out where
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  Speaker 4: that is, Bab al-Mandeb is the narrow gateway between the
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  Speaker 4: Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, one of the
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  Speaker 4: world's most important shipping routes. Last month, the Houthis swept
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  Speaker 4: down Yemen's western coast. They took over Mokka, Dhabab and
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  Speaker 4: Parim Island, putting them in a powerful position overlooking that waterway. Now,
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  Speaker 4: the government is fighting back. They say that they've surrounded
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  Speaker 4: Houthi fighters in Dhabab and they've cut the road towards
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  Speaker 4: Mokka and that they are in control of the airport. Now,
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  Speaker 4: the Houthis deny that they've lost ground, but Here's the
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  Speaker 4: important bit. This isn't just one isolated battle. Fighting is
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  Speaker 4: intensifying on many fronts. In Tez, the government says operations
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  Speaker 4: have begun towards the Houthi-led capital in Sana'a and that
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  Speaker 4: Saudi Arabia is backing this militarily in a significant way.
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  Speaker 4: The coalition has struck more than 300 Houthi targets. And
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  Speaker 4: in return, the Houthis have launched ballistic missiles and drones
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  Speaker 4: at oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. So a war that
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  Speaker 4: has been largely frozen for over four years is suddenly
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  Speaker 4: moving again on multiple fronts. And once again, Yemenis are
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  Speaker 4: paying the price.
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  Speaker 1: Thanks to Nawal for that. While the fighting in Yemen
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  Speaker 1: is creating more uncertainty around the oil supply globally, the
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  Speaker 1: chief executive of the Saudi oil giant Aramco told a
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  Speaker 1: conference in London the world's stockpiles are scarily thin and
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  Speaker 1: will take up to two years to rebuild. Aramco's refinery
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  Speaker 1: near the Saudi capital, Riyadh, was hit in an attack
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  Speaker 1: by Houthi forces over the weekend. Let's hear now from
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  Speaker 1: the chair of the London College of Energy Economics.
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  Speaker 5: Well, certainly the comments made are extremely important because over
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  Speaker 5: the past few weeks, we have seen the warnings coming
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  Speaker 5: out at the beginning of the complex, right in March
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  Speaker 5: and April, that stocks may come to a very critical point.
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  Speaker 5: Now it's starting actually to materialize. And we are seeing
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  Speaker 5: this not just on the crude oil part, because we
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  Speaker 5: have lost something like 2.4 billion barrels of oil, but
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  Speaker 5: more significantly on the product side. just so diesel prices,
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  Speaker 5: whether in Europe or in the US, are now at
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  Speaker 5: historical high levels. In fact, in the UK, they've around
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  Speaker 5: £ 2 a litre, and that's the first time in history.
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  Speaker 5: So I believe that what that actually signifies is that
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  Speaker 5: the current levels of inventories are critically low. In fact,
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  Speaker 5: not to get in the US as we are now
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  Speaker 5: moving towards winter with also gas, which is also another
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  Speaker 5: important energy fuel, also now at quite not medium levels.
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  Speaker 5: So in Europe, 60 to 65%. So the comments coming
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  Speaker 5: from around Brazil come at the time of a critical
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  Speaker 5: uncertainty to the markets.
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  Speaker 1: Iran's top national security official has publicly acknowledged the country's
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  Speaker 1: economic hardship, a rare admission from a senior official. The
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  Speaker 1: New York Times reported on Sunday that the Secretary General
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  Speaker 1: of Iran's Supreme National Security Council made the remarks at
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  Speaker 1: a high-level government meeting. Reports say, describe the situation as, quote,
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  Speaker 1: one of the most difficult periods Iran has faced. Let's
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  Speaker 1: speak to Kazra Najji from BBC Persian who's here with me.
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  Speaker 1: Hi Kazra. So a rare admission there. What do you
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  Speaker 1: take this to mean?
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  Speaker 6: That the situation is pretty bad and this is the
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  Speaker 6: weakest link possibly in Iran facing possibly another war with
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  Speaker 6: the US in the coming weeks. Iranian leaders both military
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  Speaker 6: and political leaders are pretty concerned about the resumption of
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  Speaker 6: the war. And in the last few days, all you
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  Speaker 6: hear from them is warning Americans and Israelis not to
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  Speaker 6: attack Iran, or Iran will do this, that, the other,
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  Speaker 6: to extend the war. Also, interestingly, they are warning Iran's neighbors,
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  Speaker 6: Arab neighbors, not to host the American forces. So the
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  Speaker 6: concern is that there's going to be war and the
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  Speaker 6: economic situation, economic naval blockade, air blockade. So the only
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  Speaker 6: way things can get through to Iran is from the roads.
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  Speaker 6: And already Iran is short of money to begin with,
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  Speaker 6: hasn't been able to sell any oil since all of September.
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  Speaker 6: There was zero oil. export of oil, and oil is
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  Speaker 6: the main, basically, money earner for Iran. So, yeah, things
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  Speaker 6: are pretty serious, and it could affect their calculations on
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  Speaker 6: the war or peace with the U.S.
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  Speaker 1: And we know that economic hardship is one of the
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  Speaker 1: main factors and triggers behind things like regime change. And
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  Speaker 1: people may remember right back at the start of this,
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  Speaker 1: the U.S. were directly saying to the Iranian people, this
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  Speaker 1: is your moment. Is there any suggestion that we're anywhere
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  Speaker 1: near anything like that?
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  Speaker 6: The situation is bad enough that it might trigger something because,
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  Speaker 6: you know, there are value of the Iranian currency is
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  Speaker 6: coming down massively at a fast rate. And it means
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  Speaker 6: that for traders, trading is becoming almost impossible to do
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  Speaker 6: because the prices are changing all the time and so on.
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  Speaker 6: So there is that. But also the Iranian regime, the
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  Speaker 6: hardliners particularly, are trying to control the streets. and they're
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  Speaker 6: bringing in all their supporters, arming them in the streets
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  Speaker 6: of various cities, in towns and big cities, almost every day.
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  Speaker 6: And these days they have a new sort of excuse,
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  Speaker 6: having marches under the title of people giving their lives
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  Speaker 6: for the regime. And they're having marches throughout the streets
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  Speaker 6: of various towns and cities to make sure that they
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  Speaker 6: intimidate the population, A, and B, that they show that
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  Speaker 6: they are controlling the streets.
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  Speaker 1: Kansarov, great to see you. Thank you very much for
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  Speaker 1: talking us through that. And whether you're joining us on YouTube, TikTok, Sounds,
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  Speaker 1: radio or TV, thank you for your time. We'll be
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  Speaker 1: back soon with another Iran War Today.