Latest / Pod Save America / The Wilderness Chapter 2: Party Switchers in Virginia

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The Wilderness Chapter 2: Party Switchers in Virginia · Pod Save America

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Speaker 1: Hey everyone, it's Jon Favreau, dropping in to share another
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Speaker 1: episode of The Wilderness Season 3. In this episode, I'm
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Speaker 1: taking you to the battleground state of Virginia to find
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Speaker 1: out why so many Biden voters supported a Republican for
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Speaker 1: governor in 2021, and how Democrats can win them back
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Speaker 1: in 2022. I hope you enjoy listening. And to hear
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Speaker 1: more of the series, you can subscribe to The Wilderness Feed,
0:21
Speaker 1: where you can listen to Episode 3 right now. We'll
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Speaker 1: also be dropping the series here each week, but subscribing
0:26
Speaker 1: to The Wilderness Feed is the only way to get
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Speaker 1: early access. New episodes every Monday.
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Speaker 2: You have a kind of blue America that is about
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Speaker 2: 42% of the country. And you have red America that's
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Speaker 2: like 38% pro-Trump. And you have the seven-ish states that
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Speaker 2: are in the middle. And that's where America looks like
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Speaker 2: civil war.
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Speaker 1: When Joe Biden won Virginia by 10 points in 2020,
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Speaker 1: I thought there was a chance it would stop being
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Speaker 1: one of those civil war states Michael Podhorser talks about.
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Speaker 1: Biden beat Trump there by nearly twice as much as
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Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton did in 2016. In 2017, Democrats won the
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Speaker 1: governor's race by the largest margin in decades. 2018's blue
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Speaker 1: wave gave Virginia Democrats a record number of seats in
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Speaker 1: Congress and the state legislature, a reflection of an electorate
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Speaker 1: that had become more diverse in a state where a
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Speaker 1: lot of highly educated suburbanites had drifted away from a
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Speaker 1: Republican party they viewed as too extreme. By the time
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Speaker 1: 2020 rolled around, Neither presidential campaign saw Virginia as much
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Speaker 1: of a battleground. Then came 2021.
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Speaker 3: What had been planned as a typical school board meeting
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Speaker 3: in Virginia's wealthy Loudoun County this week devolved into pandemonium.
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Speaker 4: The LCPS school board has managed to turn our once
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Speaker 4: prestigious public schools into mediocre schools. Publicly funded, politically motivated
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Speaker 4: private schools.
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Speaker 5: Critical race theory.
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Speaker 6: Critical race theory.
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Speaker 1: Marxist CRT ideology.
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Speaker 7: Authoritarian regime.
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Speaker 6: It's absurd and immoral for teachers to call boys girls
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Speaker 6: and girls boys.
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Speaker 8: White children are being told untruthfully that all the problems
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Speaker 8: in this country were their fault. If you believe in Christ,
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Speaker 8: if you believe in the Constitution, and if you believe
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Speaker 8: in America, do not let this country fall.
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Speaker 3: Things got so heated that the board members eventually walked out,
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Speaker 3: leaving the police to deal with the unruly crowd.
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Speaker 1: Two people left in handcuffs.
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Speaker 9: A lot of things that have happened in the last
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Speaker 9: two years are just beyond comprehension, beyond what I had
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Speaker 9: considered was even in the realm of possible.
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Speaker 1: This is Ian Sorokin, who became the co-chair of the
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Speaker 1: Loudoun County School Board in January of 2020. a wealthy
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Speaker 1: district just an hour outside Washington, D.C., that unexpectedly became
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Speaker 1: ground zero for America's culture war over schools.
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Speaker 9: We've had death threats. We've had things that are even
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Speaker 9: worse than death threats. I had to shut down my
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Speaker 9: social media presence for a while when I had people saying, oh,
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Speaker 9: my daughter should be raped so that I would know
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Speaker 9: what it felt like. None of this is what my
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Speaker 9: family should have had to bear. and had to deal
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Speaker 9: with over the last few years. None of this is
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Speaker 9: why I ran for the job.
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Speaker 1: America has always grappled with the threat of political violence,
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Speaker 1: but it's clearly gotten worse in the Trump era, especially
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Speaker 1: since the MAGA movement has waged battles over issues of race, gender,
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Speaker 1: political identity, and democracy itself. In Virginia, the fight was
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Speaker 1: about everything from critical race theory to transgender rights to
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Speaker 1: COVID restrictions. Right-wing activists, many from out of state, targeted
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Speaker 1: teachers and school administrators. But their real audience was parents who,
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Speaker 1: after more than a year of school closures and Zoom classes,
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Speaker 1: were pretty tired and pretty pissed. So of course this
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Speaker 1: became an issue in the governor's race between Democrat Terry
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Speaker 1: McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin.
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Speaker 7: One lightning rod issue has emerged, public schools.
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Speaker 1: There is a revolt against the way our schools have
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Speaker 1: been managed, and critical race theory is a big part
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Speaker 1: of it. I will issue an order banning the teaching
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Speaker 1: of critical race theory.
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Speaker 6: In our schools.
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Speaker 10: Democrat McAuliffe, a former governor, vows to raise teacher pay
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Speaker 10: and expand pre-K programs. But something else he said about
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Speaker 10: education at a debate has haunted him.
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Speaker 6: I don't think parents should be telling schools what.
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Speaker 10: They should teach.
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Speaker 1: Youngkin went on to defeat McAuliffe, the first Republican to
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Speaker 1: win a statewide election in Virginia since 2009, a swing
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Speaker 1: of 12 points from Biden's victory in 2020. So what
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Speaker 1: happened to all those Virginians who voted for Joe Biden
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Speaker 1: just one year earlier? Did they stay home or did
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Speaker 1: they vote for Glenn Youngkin? Civis Analytics, a data firm
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Speaker 1: whose founders helped Barack Obama win two presidential campaigns, ran
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Speaker 1: a detailed analysis of the race based on census info
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Speaker 1: and vote history. They found that while many Biden voters
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Speaker 1: did stay home, particularly younger voters and voters of color,
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Speaker 1: 80 percent of the shift away from the Democrats between
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Speaker 1: 2020 and 2021 was because of voters who switched parties.
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Speaker 1: People who voted for Joe Biden decided to cast their
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Speaker 1: ballot for Glenn Youngkin. The big question is why? Certainly,
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Speaker 1: the media took interest in the culture war narrative.
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Speaker 6: The Democrats are going to have to come face to
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Speaker 6: face with this issue of wokeism.
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Speaker 5: Tonight is a victory for critical race theory.
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Speaker 6: Radical progressive left has really taken over their party.
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Speaker 1: Politico reported that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has internal
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Speaker 1: polling that shows Republican culture war attacks are working. But
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Speaker 1: is that what really happened? Are MAGA Republicans winning the
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Speaker 1: culture wars? Did they persuade enough Biden voters in Virginia
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Speaker 1: that Democrats are just too woke? Too out of step
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Speaker 1: with the values of most Americans? And if they run
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Speaker 1: the same play in the midterms, will it work? Tramwin,
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Speaker 1: an organizer from Virginia who spent the campaign knocking on
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Speaker 1: doors and talking to voters, isn't so sure.
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Speaker 10: It only takes, you know, one journalist to cover one
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Speaker 10: aspect of the election and others pick up on and
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Speaker 10: that becomes what the race is about. Even though that's
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Speaker 10: not the reality that those of us on the ground
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Speaker 10: are experiencing.
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Speaker 1: I wanted to learn a little bit more about that
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Speaker 1: reality for a few reasons. First, the Virginia gubernatorial was
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Speaker 1: the country's biggest and most competitive election between 2020 and
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Speaker 1: the upcoming midterms. That doesn't mean the results are predictive
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Speaker 1: of what will happen in November, but they certainly represent
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Speaker 1: a larger and more definitive sample size than any poll. Second,
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Speaker 1: if we want to keep 2020's pro-democracy coalition together, we
6:41
Speaker 1: have to figure out how to prevent Biden voters from
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Speaker 1: casting their ballot for Republicans like Glenn Youngkin. Don't get
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Speaker 1: me wrong. We also have to prevent Biden voters from
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Speaker 1: just staying home, which we'll focus on in the next
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Speaker 1: couple episodes. But when you look at Virginia and see
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Speaker 1: that 80% of the shift away from Democrats came from
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Speaker 1: Biden-Yunkin voters, the math is clear. If that level of
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Speaker 1: party switching happens in the midterms, Republicans will win. For
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Speaker 1: our first focus group, I talked to nine voters in Virginia,
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Speaker 1: some who switched parties in the last election, others who
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Speaker 1: might switch in the future. Five were Biden-Yunkin voters. Four
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Speaker 1: were Biden-McAuliffe voters, but only one person in the group
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Speaker 1: identified themselves as a strong Democrat. The rest said they
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Speaker 1: were weak Democrats, independents, or weak Republicans. I also got
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Speaker 1: together with a group of campaign strategists and organizers to
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Speaker 1: chat about what we heard from these voters, why they
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Speaker 1: voted the way they did, and what Democrats can do
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Speaker 1: to win over people like them.
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Speaker 4: I'm Anat Shankar-Osorio. I'm a researcher and communications strategist. I'm
7:45
Speaker 4: based in Oakland, and I'm the principal of ASO Communications.
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Speaker 6: I'm Sarah Longwell, friendly and never-Trumper. I am the publisher
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Speaker 6: of The Bulwark, and I also run a C4 called
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Speaker 6: Defending Democracy Together. Notably, our biggest project is the Republican
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Speaker 6: Accountability Project.
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Speaker 10: I'm Tram Nguyen. I'm co-executive director of New Virginia Majority.
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Speaker 10: Lifelong Virginian. Been doing politics here for what seems like
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Speaker 10: a lifetime.
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Speaker 1: After the break, we'll hear from Anat, Sarah, Tram, and
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Speaker 1: nine Virginia voters. Testing one, two, three. I think we're
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Speaker 1: all good to go. Thank you all for doing this
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Speaker 1: so much. Virginia was my first focus group. And since
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Speaker 1: I did it during a period last spring when everyone
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Speaker 1: seemed to be getting COVID, including me, it was the
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Speaker 1: only group I conducted via Zoom. This did not stop
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Speaker 1: everyone from talking a lot. In fact, this was one
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Speaker 1: of the more talkative, politically opinionated groups. Maybe because some
8:46
Speaker 1: of them lived in the D.C. suburbs and couldn't escape politics,
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Speaker 1: even if they didn't follow it all that closely. A
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Speaker 1: week or so later, I got together with Anat, Sarah,
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Speaker 1: and Tram to talk about what we heard. I will play...
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Speaker 1: some clips from the focus group in a bit, but
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Speaker 1: I wanted to start with a question for each of you.
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Speaker 1: What are some of your best guesses as to why
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Speaker 1: Biden voters in Virginia decided to support Glenn Youngkin? Tram,
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Speaker 1: you worked on this race as a grassroots organizer. What
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Speaker 1: do you think?
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Speaker 10: I think while a lot of folks nationally think Virginia
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Speaker 10: is a solidly pleased state, for those of us who
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Speaker 10: live in Virginia, I think we have a different reality, right?
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Speaker 10: It has always been a little bit of a purpley
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Speaker 10: swing state, and we don't ever take our elections for granted.
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Speaker 10: So I'm actually not surprised that there were Biden voters
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Speaker 10: that voted for Youngkin.
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Speaker 1: Sarah, you do focus groups with swing voters all the time.
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Speaker 1: What's your sense?
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Speaker 6: Yeah, so I'm cheating on this one a little bit
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Speaker 6: because I focus grouped the heck out of that race.
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Speaker 6: And I'll tell you what I heard at the time.
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Speaker 6: a lot of it was COVID and kids not being
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Speaker 6: in school. Like there was this big ball of kind
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Speaker 6: of wokeness that people sort of identified, but it was mainly,
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Speaker 6: especially with these backsliding Biden voters around, my kids were
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Speaker 6: not in school. Terry McAuliffe's parents shouldn't be involved in school.
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Speaker 6: I have been homeschooling my kids, you know, for almost
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Speaker 6: two years. The difference between Republicans who could not wait
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Speaker 6: to go out and vote for any living, breathing Republican
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Speaker 6: versus the Democratic coalition, which I would describe scientifically as
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Speaker 6: feeling incredibly blah. And that moment, I think, led to
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Speaker 6: a perfect storm that saw a 12-point swing.
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Speaker 1: And what do you think?
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Speaker 4: I can do better than guess. I actually ran a
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Speaker 4: field experiment in Virginia. And here I'm echoing Sarah's very
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Speaker 4: scientific description of blah. I think that what McAuliffe attempted
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Speaker 4: to do was make this a further repudiation of Trump.
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Speaker 4: And I think on the heels of what had happened,
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Speaker 4: not just in November, but in the prolonged, horrible period—
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Speaker 4: that ended with the insurrection and then eventually the swearing
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Speaker 4: in of Biden. I don't think people wanted to hear that.
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Speaker 4: And so I don't think that he drew the contrast
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Speaker 4: he needed to with his actual opponent, who was Youngkin.
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Speaker 5: All right.
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Speaker 1: Let's hear from some of the Biden-Youngkin voters in our
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Speaker 1: group about why they chose Glenn Youngkin.
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Speaker 5: Let's face it, I think we had bad choices in
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Speaker 5: Virginia for governor. I didn't like either of them, but
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Speaker 5: I thought Youngkin was less of two evils.
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Speaker 3: When I took a look at both of the candidates
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Speaker 3: that I had for options, which I didn't feel either
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Speaker 3: one of them was all that outstanding. I just went
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Speaker 3: towards Youngkin because there were some things that McCullough had
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Speaker 3: done that I thought were not the best choices.
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Speaker 11: When Terry was here, he didn't do anything that was worthwhile,
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Speaker 11: in my opinion.
11:36
Speaker 5: So I.
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Speaker 11: Did not like him as a candidate. He didn't do
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Speaker 11: a great job the first time. So why am I
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Speaker 11: going to elect him again?
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Speaker 12: I think I have kind of a simplistic view where
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Speaker 12: one party gets power all the time or has too
11:51
Speaker 12: much power. They're going to get kind of full of
11:53
Speaker 12: themselves and they're going to do whatever they want. I
11:55
Speaker 12: kind of like to have a balance, I guess. So
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Speaker 12: I voted for Youngkin. He seemed like he was going
12:02
Speaker 12: to be kind of moderate. Doesn't seem like he's actually
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Speaker 12: that moderate.
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Speaker 5: Well, my primary reason was a repeal of the grocery tax,
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Speaker 5: which I noticed hasn't happened yet, you know, because Virginia
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Speaker 5: is one of the few states that taxes groceries.
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Speaker 13: I voted for Glenn Youngkin, and I primarily vote Democratic
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Speaker 13: in most cases. But in this situation, there was no
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Speaker 13: way I could go with the policies of the Democrats.
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Speaker 13: Here in Virginia, the previous administration, Northam, were bad. not
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Speaker 13: handling things well. When it came to his lack of
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Speaker 13: support for police departments and what he put a lot
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Speaker 13: of those officers through, and I had voted for Terry
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Speaker 13: McAuliffe previously.
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Speaker 1: Do you all think there are larger lessons Democrats can
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Speaker 1: learn from these kinds of voters ahead of the 2022 midterms,
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Speaker 1: or was this just an off-year election about these specific
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Speaker 1: candidates and this state's specific issues? Anat, let's start with
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Speaker 1: you on this one.
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Speaker 4: What I hear from those voters is, first of all,
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Speaker 4: the judgment about not an immediate incumbent, but a person
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Speaker 4: who had been governor before, and a feeling of sort
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Speaker 4: of the devil you know versus the devil you don't know,
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Speaker 4: and some amount of belief that Youngkin was this different
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Speaker 4: kind of Republican, that he was going to be more moderate.
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Speaker 4: I think that that just underscores the a failure of
13:27
Speaker 4: properly contrasting McAuliffe with what he was actually confronting. It
13:33
Speaker 4: needs to be clear to people exactly how extreme and
13:37
Speaker 4: exactly how out of touch and exactly how much this
13:43
Speaker 4: essentially authoritarian faction of Trump Republicans, not all Republicans, very
13:48
Speaker 4: specifically Trump Republicans, are hell bent on taking away our
13:52
Speaker 4: freedoms in every dimension.
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Speaker 1: Tram, what did you think? Hearing from those voters, does
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Speaker 1: that sound familiar to you at all from your time
13:59
Speaker 1: on the ground in Virginia?
14:00
Speaker 6: I mean, I agree with.
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Speaker 5: Anat, right?
14:02
Speaker 10: Terry ran a Donald Trump, like, referendum campaign.
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Speaker 6: He's a total wannabe Donald Trump.
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Speaker 14: He said so much of the reason he's running for governor,
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Speaker 14: his quote, is because of Donald Trump.
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Speaker 6: He is bought and paid for by Donald Trump.
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Speaker 10: He wants to bring Donald Trump-style politics to Virginia.
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Speaker 5: He is a Trumper.
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Speaker 1: He's been endorsed seven times.
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Speaker 9: That's what you get with Glenn Trumkin.
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Speaker 11: And.
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Speaker 10: The voters that we spoke to when we were on
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Speaker 10: the doors, on the phones, the contrast that we drew
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Speaker 10: wasn't about necessarily Terry McAuliffe as governor and what he
14:32
Speaker 10: did in his first term, because like, let's be real,
14:35
Speaker 10: there wasn't a whole lot that was achieved in that
14:36
Speaker 10: first term. You know, there was no trifecta. There was
14:39
Speaker 10: a Republican-held legislature. They blocked all of these things that
14:42
Speaker 10: we were trying to make progress on. However, Democrats did
14:45
Speaker 10: make progress on Medicaid expansion and on criminal justice reform
14:49
Speaker 10: and on immigrant rights and environmental justice and all of
14:53
Speaker 10: these things. that Terry didn't even talk about in that race, right?
14:57
Speaker 10: And so the media actually defined that race around police.
15:02
Speaker 10: And so defunding the police ended up being a thing.
15:04
Speaker 10: And then the grocery tax, because Youngkin ran a lot
15:06
Speaker 10: of ads around that. And that hits at people's like
15:09
Speaker 10: bread and butter issues, right? Their pocketbook, and they were hurting.
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Speaker 1: Sarah, any lessons Democrats can learn from these voters or
15:16
Speaker 1: other swing voters that you've talked to in Virginia?
15:19
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, look, I think that you shouldn't run
15:21
Speaker 6: the same person again. The vibe is, why is this
15:24
Speaker 6: guy getting another term? Then that's bad for you. Because
15:27
Speaker 6: McAuliffe did go so hard on the, I'm going to
15:29
Speaker 6: try Yunkin to Trump. I had a bunch of swing
15:32
Speaker 6: of voters who ultimately voted for Yunkin, but who were
15:35
Speaker 6: Biden voters, say, when I heard that, I was not
15:39
Speaker 6: going to vote for Yunkin. But then I started to
15:41
Speaker 6: look at Yunkin and I saw him in the debates
15:43
Speaker 6: and he didn't seem like Trump at all. And I
15:45
Speaker 6: actually think that the candidates that are running in 2022,
15:49
Speaker 6: are extremely Trumpy candidates. That is different than Yunkin. Yunkin
15:54
Speaker 6: was a nice dad in a zip-up tech vest who
15:57
Speaker 6: looked not Trumpy at all and kept Trump at arm's length.
16:00
Speaker 6: And I think that a referendum on Trump is not
16:02
Speaker 6: a bad thing to do. Tying the National Party to Trump,
16:04
Speaker 6: not a bad thing to do. It will not work
16:06
Speaker 6: on certain candidates, and Yunkin is one of those candidates.
16:09
Speaker 5: Yeah.
16:09
Speaker 1: So it's important not to overlearn the lessons of a
16:12
Speaker 1: Glenn Yunkin race who maybe seemed a little bit more
16:14
Speaker 1: like Mitt Romney than Donald Trump. I wanted to find
16:19
Speaker 1: out what issues these voters were most concerned about. Obviously,
16:22
Speaker 1: we heard a lot about education in the Virginia race,
16:24
Speaker 1: particularly Glenn Youngkin's complaint that critical race theory was being
16:26
Speaker 1: taught in public schools. These voters actually weren't buying it,
16:30
Speaker 1: even the ones who voted for Youngkin.
16:31
Speaker 12: I mean, I don't think they're teaching critical race theory,
16:36
Speaker 12: but I mean, it's just it's an easy thing to
16:38
Speaker 12: latch on to.
16:39
Speaker 5: There was a.
16:40
Speaker 7: Math book banned because it had illustrations of black and
16:45
Speaker 7: white children. Now it's a math book. But because they
16:49
Speaker 7: had black children in there, they were trying to say
16:53
Speaker 7: that we were trying to teach critical race theory through
16:57
Speaker 7: a math book. That's crazy to me.
17:01
Speaker 1: A lot of these voters did say that education was
17:02
Speaker 1: an important issue to them, but their problem wasn't critical
17:05
Speaker 1: race theory. This is what I heard from two Yunkin voters.
17:08
Speaker 13: I meant to say this earlier when we were on
17:10
Speaker 13: Glenn Youngkin. As far as his views on education, I'm
17:15
Speaker 13: definitely concerned with that, and I was before I voted
17:17
Speaker 13: for him, too. And my wife's a teacher, and I've
17:20
Speaker 13: been an educator myself, so I'm well aware of the
17:24
Speaker 13: problems in the education system that individual teachers have to
17:28
Speaker 13: deal with, the low pay and so forth, the low
17:31
Speaker 13: funding for resources. It's a very big problem.
17:34
Speaker 11: I think generally... There needs to be a lot more
17:37
Speaker 11: focus on education. We've always put a lot of money
17:41
Speaker 11: into defense, into international affairs. And the pandemic was obviously
17:47
Speaker 11: something that took up a lot of money. So it
17:49
Speaker 11: would be great if we can just sort of invest
17:53
Speaker 11: in education as a change.
17:57
Speaker 1: Sarah, how much and what have you heard from swing
18:00
Speaker 1: voters about critical race theory?
18:03
Speaker 6: Yeah, the swing voters don't care about it so much.
18:06
Speaker 6: It is a base Trump play. But the thing that
18:10
Speaker 6: Glenn Youngkin did, there's an important strategy the Republicans are employing.
18:13
Speaker 6: I call it the parallel universe strategy, where you could
18:16
Speaker 6: talk about CRT to Trump-based voters, And you can talk
18:21
Speaker 6: about education, broadly speaking, to swing voters and sort of
18:24
Speaker 6: normie voters. And you can hear people want education to
18:28
Speaker 6: be top of mind. It mattered to them both because
18:30
Speaker 6: their kids had been not in school, because people were
18:33
Speaker 6: trying to get the schools to do different things around COVID.
18:36
Speaker 6: but also because people care about education, big issue for people.
18:38
Speaker 6: And so as a result, Glenn Youngkin's able to talk
18:41
Speaker 6: about CRT at the base, but then have the normies
18:44
Speaker 6: kind of just hear education, education, education. I care about education.
18:47
Speaker 6: And what they heard was Terry McAuliffe saying parents don't
18:50
Speaker 6: belong in the decision-making process around schools.
18:53
Speaker 11: Yeah.
18:54
Speaker 1: Tram, were your organizers hearing this when they went door
18:56
Speaker 1: to door?
18:57
Speaker 10: The two issues that we kept hearing on the doors
18:59
Speaker 10: was healthcare and education, but critical race theory.
19:02
Speaker 6: Did not come up.
19:03
Speaker 5: Right.
19:03
Speaker 10: And again, It was really more about what parents were
19:07
Speaker 10: hearing and the issues around like parental anxiety. And when
19:11
Speaker 10: it came to education, kids were at home, they were homeschooling.
19:14
Speaker 10: And then when schools opened back up, like, are my
19:16
Speaker 10: kids going to be safe? Mask policies, like all of
19:20
Speaker 10: these things. It's a lot of parents that we spoke
19:23
Speaker 10: to who had education as their number one issue said,
19:27
Speaker 10: I know critical race theory isn't taught in the schools.
19:29
Speaker 10: And I don't actually have a problem with that, but I,
19:32
Speaker 10: If this candidate is going to actually, you know, give
19:35
Speaker 10: lip service and give some airtime to this bogus issue,
19:39
Speaker 10: then my legitimate issues, right, may actually get some airtime too.
19:43
Speaker 10: And maybe it will finally address, you know, our public
19:45
Speaker 10: education crisis. It really was the number one issue that
19:48
Speaker 10: voters talked.
19:49
Speaker 5: About on the door.
19:51
Speaker 1: Anat, how do you think Democrats should handle these kinds
19:55
Speaker 1: of attacks going forward? Ignore them, take them on. What
19:59
Speaker 1: should they say?
20:00
Speaker 5: Yeah.
20:02
Speaker 4: So I don't think we have the choice to ignore them.
20:05
Speaker 4: And so the way that we deal with it is
20:07
Speaker 4: first and foremost, we Say what you're for, say what
20:10
Speaker 4: you're for, say what you're for. So you say, no
20:15
Speaker 4: matter what we look like, where we come from, or
20:18
Speaker 4: what our zip code, most of us want our kids
20:21
Speaker 4: to have the freedom to learn the truth of our
20:25
Speaker 4: history so they can understand our past, reckon with our present,
20:29
Speaker 4: and create a better future. Then you draw the contrast,
20:33
Speaker 4: naming villains. But today, Glenn Youngkin, or but today, fast
20:37
Speaker 4: forward to whoever that actually is. wants to divide us
20:41
Speaker 4: from each other, inventing lies about what is taught in
20:46
Speaker 4: our schools and attempting to silence the truth of our past.
20:51
Speaker 4: So you actually both narrate what they're doing and you
20:55
Speaker 4: ascribe motivation. You explain the reason that they're peddling these
21:00
Speaker 4: false claims, the reason why they want to ban books
21:02
Speaker 4: but allow bullets, for example, is because they're hoping that
21:07
Speaker 4: if they can feed this distraction and keep their base
21:10
Speaker 4: engaged and enraged, that we won't notice while they vote
21:16
Speaker 4: to eliminate the funding, the resources, the programs, the stuff
21:20
Speaker 4: that all of us want. And then you encourage that
21:24
Speaker 4: widest possible coalition of voters, the swing and the Democratic base,
21:29
Speaker 4: to join together and vote for real leaders who believe
21:33
Speaker 4: in the freedom to learn for every one.
21:35
Speaker 6: Of our children.
21:38
Speaker 1: After the break, we hear from these Virginia voters about
21:41
Speaker 1: the economy and abortion rights. Welcome back. When we recorded
21:51
Speaker 1: this focus group in May, We wanted to learn about
21:54
Speaker 1: the 2021 gubernatorial race in Virginia. But we also wanted
21:57
Speaker 1: to get a sense of where these voters were at
21:59
Speaker 1: heading into this year's election. And while a lot has
22:02
Speaker 1: changed since May, one thing has stayed the same. People's
22:05
Speaker 1: feelings about the economy. Education was, you know, very important
22:10
Speaker 1: to these voters. Of course, the issue that came up
22:12
Speaker 1: the most by far was the economy and especially inflation, which,
22:16
Speaker 1: of course, matches all the polling. Take a listen.
22:19
Speaker 5: We've been spending billions and billions and billions of dollars
22:23
Speaker 5: in Ukraine. I mean, you know, what are we going
22:25
Speaker 5: to do? I mean, it's like that can't continue forever. Well,
22:30
Speaker 5: I would say inflation and the.
22:32
Speaker 3: Rising food costs, because that's huge right now. Just going
22:35
Speaker 3: to the grocery store, I found a receipt from a
22:37
Speaker 3: couple months ago, and I couldn't believe the difference in
22:40
Speaker 3: the cost to buy weekly groceries.
22:42
Speaker 1: Which party do you trust more to handle inflation?
22:46
Speaker 13: Actually, none.
22:47
Speaker 14: I don't think anybody, any one party can handle it.
22:50
Speaker 14: Things go up. It's just going up at a rapidly
22:53
Speaker 14: high rate besides salaries. So even if we put Republicans
22:57
Speaker 14: in charge, they can't do anything. And we already know
23:00
Speaker 14: putting them in charge what it leads to. I mean,
23:02
Speaker 14: things just get stalled.
23:07
Speaker 1: So Sarah, a while back, Katie Porter gave this speech
23:10
Speaker 1: about inflation. And afterwards, she said it felt like the
23:12
Speaker 1: first time it really sank in with some of her colleagues,
23:14
Speaker 1: one of whom came up to her and said, it's
23:17
Speaker 1: not an issue that's coming up in the polls. Is
23:19
Speaker 1: that even possible? It's not possible.
23:23
Speaker 6: So I open every focus group with the same question. Hey,
23:25
Speaker 6: how do you think things are going in the country?
23:27
Speaker 6: And everyone's like, inflation's really bad. Inflation's really bad. My
23:30
Speaker 6: salary is not keeping up with the costs. My grocery
23:33
Speaker 6: bill is going up. Like they say exactly the things
23:34
Speaker 6: you hear. In fact, I sort of play a game
23:36
Speaker 6: with myself all the time. It's like, when could you
23:38
Speaker 6: play a section of clips and not know whether it
23:41
Speaker 6: is a Democratic group or a Republican group talking? And
23:44
Speaker 6: right now, you could do that with inflation, where if
23:46
Speaker 6: you just listen to both groups, they would sound exactly
23:48
Speaker 6: the same. They would be talking about how they can't
23:50
Speaker 6: get into homes, how their rent is really high, just
23:52
Speaker 6: everything about costs. Also, do you need a pollster to
23:55
Speaker 6: tell you when inflation's at 8% that that's a problem
23:58
Speaker 6: for people? If you want to talk to people about
24:01
Speaker 6: the authoritarian menace of the Republican Party while they are
24:04
Speaker 6: trying to game out how far they can drive on
24:08
Speaker 6: the money that they have, you are not having a
24:10
Speaker 6: conversation on the same frequency.
24:13
Speaker 1: It was interesting or not that no one blamed Biden
24:16
Speaker 1: and the Democrats for inflation. No one was happy about
24:18
Speaker 1: it either. If you're the party that controls Washington, what
24:22
Speaker 1: do you do about the fact that the voters biggest
24:24
Speaker 1: concern is something you can probably do very little about?
24:28
Speaker 5: Yeah. So.
24:30
Speaker 4: The first thing, and here I'm just echoing and agreeing
24:33
Speaker 4: with Sarah, is that it's a terrible idea to attempt
24:36
Speaker 4: to argue people out of their feelings. That is both
24:40
Speaker 4: a politics lesson and that is a if you would
24:43
Speaker 4: ever like to be in a relationship with another human being.
24:47
Speaker 4: So what do you do when you're the party in power?
24:51
Speaker 4: You try to shift at a frame level from politics.
24:56
Speaker 4: why is stuff so expensive to why are you so broke?
25:02
Speaker 4: Notice I'm not saying pretend it's not expensive, pretend it's
25:05
Speaker 4: not a big deal. But if you can shift their
25:08
Speaker 4: thinking and the way that you frame the conversation to
25:11
Speaker 4: why are you so broke, then what you can bring
25:15
Speaker 4: into that is the things that that we care most
25:19
Speaker 4: about and that cost the most? Childcare, healthcare, higher education, housing.
25:27
Speaker 4: Over and over, Democrats have put forward proposals to support you.
25:33
Speaker 4: to bring this to you, to help you. And a
25:36
Speaker 4: handful of Republicans have blocked the way. You can use
25:40
Speaker 4: populist anger to actually make people understand that.
25:44
Speaker 5: Some of this is deliberately.
25:45
Speaker 4: Caused, and it's deliberately caused by people who are intentionally
25:49
Speaker 4: profiting off this pandemic.
25:53
Speaker 1: Every single person in this focus group, which, again, was
25:57
Speaker 1: conducted shortly after the draft SCOTUS opinion overturning Roe v.
26:00
Speaker 1: Wade leaked, brought up abortion. even the Youngkin voters. And
26:04
Speaker 1: this is what they all said.
26:06
Speaker 5: I think abortion rights would be fundamental in my voting.
26:11
Speaker 5: I mean, abortion needs to be legal, bottom line.
26:15
Speaker 12: I don't believe the government should be getting involved in
26:17
Speaker 12: what women should be doing with their bodies.
26:20
Speaker 11: Obviously, that's a big issue for me as a woman.
26:22
Speaker 3: I have somewhat of an ethical issue.
26:25
Speaker 5: I'm Catholic.
26:26
Speaker 3: I guess I have some of my own rules there
26:28
Speaker 3: because I believe that a woman has the right to
26:31
Speaker 3: have an abortion.
26:32
Speaker 5: That's her choice.
26:33
Speaker 3: I don't get to tell you as a religious person
26:35
Speaker 3: what you do. So I have a major issue where
26:38
Speaker 3: the government would come in and try to mandate that.
26:42
Speaker 1: Anat, I've heard Democrats message this issue a dozen different ways.
26:46
Speaker 1: What's the most effective frame, not only to sort of
26:49
Speaker 1: get majority support, but also to increase the salience of
26:52
Speaker 1: the issue to voters?
26:54
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm glad you asked. And I'm biased here because,
26:57
Speaker 4: you know, this is part of an approach that I
26:58
Speaker 4: helped generate that we've started putting out is to simply
27:01
Speaker 4: say someone you love will need an abortion someday. It
27:05
Speaker 4: may be your sister. It may be your neighbor. It
27:08
Speaker 4: may be your colleague, your best friend. None of us
27:11
Speaker 4: can predict the future, and we don't know the path
27:13
Speaker 4: a pregnancy will take. Someone you love will need abortion care,
27:18
Speaker 4: and what will they do then? The other thing that
27:21
Speaker 4: we have to do, and this echoes what has already
27:24
Speaker 4: been said, is that this extremist position on abortion has
27:31
Speaker 4: to be roped into and painted as of a piece
27:36
Speaker 4: and part of this broader overall extremist agenda. which is
27:42
Speaker 4: about taking away our freedoms in every dimension, taking away
27:47
Speaker 4: our freedom to vote, taking away our freedom to learn,
27:51
Speaker 4: taking away our freedom to decide whether and when we
27:55
Speaker 4: grow our families. That basically there is this authoritarian faction.
28:01
Speaker 4: There are these Trump Republicans or MAGA Republicans who are
28:05
Speaker 4: determined to claim and hold power no matter what the
28:09
Speaker 4: will of the people is.
28:11
Speaker 1: It's really about telling the story of Republican extremism is
28:14
Speaker 1: what I'm hearing, both in the types of candidates they're
28:17
Speaker 1: nominating and the positions they've taken and the policies they're proposing.
28:21
Speaker 1: I also wanted to know what these 2021 swing voters
28:23
Speaker 1: thought about Joe Biden and Democrats in Congress as we
28:26
Speaker 1: head into 2022. Here's what they said about Biden.
28:29
Speaker 5: I like Joe Biden a lot as a person, and
28:32
Speaker 5: I think he's tried really hard. But I mean, it
28:34
Speaker 5: just seems like whatever he does, it just doesn't make
28:37
Speaker 5: an improvement or makes things worse.
28:40
Speaker 14: You can't really blame a lot on Joe because he's
28:43
Speaker 14: cleaned up the messes of what happened the previous couple
28:45
Speaker 14: of years.
28:46
Speaker 13: I see that. He's not sitting idly by. He's not
28:49
Speaker 13: Sleepy Joe or whatever.
28:50
Speaker 1: And here's what both the McAuliffe and Youngkin voters had
28:54
Speaker 1: to say about Democrats in Congress.
28:56
Speaker 14: My one word for Democrats, I think they're trying. I
28:59
Speaker 14: just think they got people that are so moderate and
29:02
Speaker 14: is just trying to be in the limelight because I
29:04
Speaker 14: think they have agendas down the line personally. But I
29:08
Speaker 14: do see the effort in trying.
29:09
Speaker 13: The current Democrats that are in Congress, it's kind of
29:13
Speaker 13: similar with the Republicans too. There are the career politicians.
29:18
Speaker 13: They just want to make sure they've got their job.
29:21
Speaker 13: And then they're the ones that actually care about issues
29:24
Speaker 13: that concern the general public. Fortunately, I believe it's the minority.
29:29
Speaker 13: that are, you know, just out to serve themselves.
29:32
Speaker 1: Sarah, what do you think? What have you been hearing
29:34
Speaker 1: from voters about Biden and the Democrats?
29:36
Speaker 6: I get a lot, especially from the Dem groups and
29:38
Speaker 6: then sort of from the swing voters. You get a
29:40
Speaker 6: kind of like, you know, he's he's a nice guy
29:44
Speaker 6: and he's he's trying. But, you know, he's really old.
29:47
Speaker 6: When I do Republican focus groups, I say, who do
29:50
Speaker 6: you want to run in 2024? More than half usually
29:52
Speaker 6: say Trump. We say, OK, Trump's not running. Who do
29:54
Speaker 6: you want to run? And they say DeSantis, Tucker. Kristi Noem,
29:58
Speaker 6: Tim Scott, they've got a bunch of people that they
30:01
Speaker 6: would like to see run in 2024. If you ask
30:04
Speaker 6: a group of Democrats, would you like to see Joe
30:06
Speaker 6: Biden run again in 2024? The answer is absolutely not.
30:09
Speaker 6: They do not want to see Joe run again in 2024.
30:10
Speaker 6: If you say, who would you like to see run?
30:12
Speaker 6: They just stare at you. And there's just like a
30:16
Speaker 6: blank look of, I don't know, I'm not sure I
30:19
Speaker 6: can name anybody I like that much. And like, usually
30:21
Speaker 6: what happens is they reach for a name they know
30:23
Speaker 6: and they say like AOC. And then the other half
30:25
Speaker 6: of the group goes, no, there's not this bench where
30:28
Speaker 6: people can look and say, oh, this is the future
30:29
Speaker 6: of the Democratic Party. I understand where we're going here.
30:32
Speaker 6: Whereas on the right, they can freak you out who
30:34
Speaker 6: they're reaching for. But like they got a bench, they
30:37
Speaker 6: got a group of people they'll want to see that
30:38
Speaker 6: they can get excited about.
30:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's back to what you said earlier, where it's
30:41
Speaker 1: just like blah. from Democrats. So obviously, Anant, Democrats want
30:46
Speaker 1: this election to be a choice between their vision and
30:48
Speaker 1: the Republican vision. Republicans want this election to be a
30:51
Speaker 1: referendum on Biden and the Democrats who control Congress. That's
30:54
Speaker 1: clearly how a lot of voters think, especially in a midterm.
30:57
Speaker 1: How do Democrats answer the concerns that we just heard
31:00
Speaker 1: from those voters and sort of flip the frame?
31:04
Speaker 4: So we generally tend to think that a mobilization message
31:09
Speaker 4: is some permutation of either a here's why Dems are great,
31:15
Speaker 4: or here's why Republicans are terrible. There's a third option,
31:19
Speaker 4: which is a voter agency message. That voter agency message
31:23
Speaker 4: is something like, in 2018 and 2020, we turned out
31:28
Speaker 4: in record numbers. We voted to deliver vaccines. We voted
31:34
Speaker 4: to create infrastructure. We voted to send packing packages. handful
31:41
Speaker 4: of politicians who wanted to divide us against each other.
31:44
Speaker 4: And there's a whole lot more work left to do.
31:49
Speaker 4: Because ultimately, we need to remember that voting is a
31:54
Speaker 4: behavior we need people to engage in. It's not a
31:56
Speaker 4: belief we need them to hold.
31:58
Speaker 1: Interestingly, one member of Congress was mentioned quite favorably by
32:02
Speaker 1: two participants, one of whom voted for Youngkin. Let's listen.
32:05
Speaker 5: I would vote for somebody like Abigail Spanberger, who's a
32:08
Speaker 5: moderate Democrat with a lot of integrity. And she's not
32:12
Speaker 5: a lawyer. I mean, she's the best political servant that
32:16
Speaker 5: I've ever been associated with. And she's great. If all
32:21
Speaker 5: politicians were like her, there wouldn't be an issue with Congress.
32:25
Speaker 7: I agree. Abigail is awesome. And I think there are
32:29
Speaker 7: some others that are as well.
32:33
Speaker 1: Sarah, it seems like the challenge is always there's a
32:36
Speaker 1: series of moderate Democrats who are attractive to a lot
32:40
Speaker 1: more moderate voters who you think could really win that
32:44
Speaker 1: are a little drier. And then the really inspiring Democrats
32:48
Speaker 1: tend to appeal more to the base.
32:51
Speaker 2: I don't know.
32:52
Speaker 1: Is this something that I'm just seeing or what? What
32:54
Speaker 1: do you think? You think candidates like Spanberger could go
32:56
Speaker 1: pretty far?
32:56
Speaker 11: Look.
32:57
Speaker 1: Here's the thing.
32:58
Speaker 6: The first time I engaged ever in my life on
33:00
Speaker 6: behalf of Democrats was in 2018. And I found myself
33:03
Speaker 6: looking around at all of these women, all these female
33:06
Speaker 6: candidates who were helicopter pilots and CIA analysts. They talked
33:11
Speaker 6: about their cool jobs and being moms in their military service.
33:15
Speaker 6: And they won and they won, they won. And they
33:17
Speaker 6: were moderate candidates. talking about kitchen table issues. They ran
33:20
Speaker 6: on the Republicans trying to repeal certain healthcare provisions. And
33:24
Speaker 6: I thought that was the stuff. Like that for me,
33:27
Speaker 6: I was like, this is the winning formula. I don't
33:29
Speaker 6: think that the base is these progressive activists. I think
33:32
Speaker 6: the progressive activists are the ones messing everything up and
33:34
Speaker 6: telling Dems to do things that are just poisoning them
33:38
Speaker 6: with these swing voters. So if you were, if somebody
33:41
Speaker 6: was asking me, I would say, get your moderate females
33:44
Speaker 6: out there elevated and get them ready for the national stage.
33:48
Speaker 1: Anat, how do we square this circle? Because I have
33:50
Speaker 1: always said, like, look, the coalition that won in 2020
33:53
Speaker 1: spans from AOC fans to Joe Manchin fans to Sarah
33:58
Speaker 1: and the Bulwark crowd, right? Like, we have a very
34:00
Speaker 1: big coalition now that we actually have to hold together.
34:03
Speaker 1: What do you think about that? How do you sort
34:04
Speaker 1: of square that circle with candidates?
34:06
Speaker 5: Yeah.
34:07
Speaker 4: So many things I want to say about this. So
34:12
Speaker 4: the first thing that I want to say is that
34:14
Speaker 4: we have been doing for the last two years, two
34:16
Speaker 4: to four focus groups a week with every kind of demographic,
34:20
Speaker 4: not hard, hard Trump outside of that demographic, but everyone else,
34:24
Speaker 4: you name it. And I can tell you, actually, I
34:27
Speaker 4: welcome you to guess when the question is asked, what
34:29
Speaker 4: upsets you about Dems or what do you dislike about Dems?
34:32
Speaker 4: Guess how many times in all of these groups across
34:36
Speaker 4: two years any person has volunteered they are too woke
34:41
Speaker 4: or defund the police or any of these issues that
34:44
Speaker 4: supposedly are these stances that Dems have gone off the
34:48
Speaker 4: deep end and actually taken. Spoiler alert, zero. That is
34:53
Speaker 4: never a volunteered answer in any of these. What upsets
34:57
Speaker 4: people about Dems, as we have already unearthed, is fear.
35:01
Speaker 4: When we ask them for metaphors, they're tortoises, they're slugs,
35:04
Speaker 4: they're snails, any kind of animal that you can think
35:07
Speaker 4: of that doesn't move very fast and doesn't get things done.
35:10
Speaker 4: And so this argument around Dems should be more moderate
35:14
Speaker 4: or not, I find it a very slippery thing because
35:18
Speaker 4: when it happens in broader media, there are these claims
35:21
Speaker 4: that there are these Democrats running on these extremist positions.
35:24
Speaker 4: And in point of fact, it's not really their position.
35:27
Speaker 1: I agree, though. I was expecting to hear some of
35:30
Speaker 1: this stuff come up in this focus group. You didn't
35:32
Speaker 1: hear any of the woke stuff come up at all.
35:34
Speaker 1: There was one guy who said the reason he voted
35:37
Speaker 1: for Youngkin was partly because of Northam and the police
35:39
Speaker 1: and his position on the police. So that popped up here. Sarah,
35:42
Speaker 1: do you get that in your groups, the quote-unquote woke stuff?
35:47
Speaker 6: You know, so I don't hear like woke so much
35:51
Speaker 6: as here's the thing that I hear, especially from swing voters,
35:54
Speaker 6: but certainly from even sort of the moderate Republicans. Republicans,
35:58
Speaker 6: spend all their time, because they don't have a ton
36:00
Speaker 6: of policy aims, defining Democrats. So when you say, oh, well,
36:03
Speaker 6: nobody actually says defund the police. I'm like, well, a
36:06
Speaker 6: lot of people did say it. It didn't have to
36:08
Speaker 6: be Joe Biden. It didn't have to be a lot
36:09
Speaker 6: of elected officials, a lot of Democratic activists said it.
36:12
Speaker 6: And as a result, it became this thing that was
36:15
Speaker 6: on NPR all the time. And I do think you
36:17
Speaker 6: can see it in the polls where it stopped a
36:20
Speaker 6: lot of the momentum for Democrats when they were winning
36:23
Speaker 6: on the George Floyd issue. They were winning on Black
36:25
Speaker 6: Lives Matter. And then it turned to defund the police
36:27
Speaker 6: and a lot of cities were getting burned down. And
36:29
Speaker 6: I think you lost a ton of that swing voter
36:31
Speaker 6: support that was on the table. One of the things
36:34
Speaker 6: that I don't know how to get through to people
36:36
Speaker 6: on is that these swing voters think Democrats sound like
36:39
Speaker 6: the way that they talk, they sound like aliens. It's
36:41
Speaker 6: not woke. It's that they're like, what is it? what
36:44
Speaker 6: are you talking about with the trans issue? Like, what
36:46
Speaker 6: is the pronoun thing? Like, what are you talking about
36:49
Speaker 6: with this, with the race stuff? It's not CRT, but
36:52
Speaker 6: people do have this sense of like, well, race is
36:54
Speaker 6: being taught differently in schools than the way I was
36:56
Speaker 6: taught it. And that makes them feel weird about it.
36:58
Speaker 6: And it goes back to vibes.
37:00
Speaker 1: Well, I get that because Anat has been giving us
37:03
Speaker 1: messages this entire time from a progressive point of view
37:07
Speaker 1: that involve language that is very broad, accessible, universal language.
37:13
Speaker 1: and yet still progressive. So there's a way to do this.
37:18
Speaker 1: So I finally asked the group, which party would they
37:20
Speaker 1: vote for in the fall? People were a bit on
37:22
Speaker 1: the fence, but ultimately about six of the nine said
37:24
Speaker 1: they were sure they'd go for Dems, including a few
37:26
Speaker 1: of the Youngkin converters. None of them said they were
37:28
Speaker 1: sure they'd vote for Republicans, but three Youngkin voters said
37:31
Speaker 1: they were still undecided. Here's why.
37:35
Speaker 13: I'm just going to do what research I can of
37:38
Speaker 13: each candidate and each issue. And, uh, and go based
37:43
Speaker 13: off what I see there.
37:44
Speaker 11: Again, you know, I kind of weigh progress. So I'm
37:48
Speaker 11: just kind of trying to see what will happen next.
37:52
Speaker 3: I think a lot of things can happen between now
37:53
Speaker 3: and then. And that's why I want to wait to
37:56
Speaker 3: make my decision. I mean, even just thinking minimal, you know, gasoline.
38:00
Speaker 3: Hadn't gotten gas in a while. And I was surprised
38:03
Speaker 3: what it cost me to fill the car, you know,
38:05
Speaker 3: and all those things that you don't think about that
38:07
Speaker 3: all add up.
38:10
Speaker 1: Tram, how do Democrats close the deal with these voters?
38:13
Speaker 10: Organizing 101 is you meet people where they are. And
38:16
Speaker 10: so you talk to people about the shit that they
38:19
Speaker 10: care about, the things that they deeply care about. And
38:22
Speaker 10: you don't disregard those thoughts and those feelings, as Anad
38:25
Speaker 10: has already mentioned, right? And you talk to them about
38:28
Speaker 10: that and you find a path forward. I mean, it's slow.
38:32
Speaker 10: I'm an organizer.
38:33
Speaker 6: Work is hard.
38:33
Speaker 10: You build relationships. You build trust. You build political homes
38:37
Speaker 10: for people. And so the work is hard.
38:39
Speaker 6: Long and hard.
38:40
Speaker 5: I don't know.
38:41
Speaker 10: There's a silver bullet. Folks are always looking for that
38:43
Speaker 10: silver bullet. And I just think we need to get
38:46
Speaker 10: beyond that.
38:47
Speaker 1: And now what do you think?
38:48
Speaker 4: I would say that. What we would do with folks
38:51
Speaker 4: like them, particularly because they have struck me as really
38:56
Speaker 4: thoughtful and deliberative and not kind of prone to or
39:00
Speaker 4: keen on one type of identity group or ideology, is
39:05
Speaker 4: really to talk to them about who they are, what
39:08
Speaker 4: they believe, and what kind of future they want for
39:11
Speaker 4: their children.
39:12
Speaker 1: Sarah, what about you? What do you think? How to
39:14
Speaker 1: close the deal?
39:15
Speaker 6: You need things to get substantially better in the world.
39:17
Speaker 1: That's a tough one.
39:19
Speaker 6: I mean, candidates do matter and they're going to matter
39:21
Speaker 6: in 22 and that you're going to have a run
39:22
Speaker 6: to really bad Republican candidates. And so if you end
39:26
Speaker 6: up with a bunch of candidates like that, you can
39:27
Speaker 6: prosecute a case against them. And that is. um, you know,
39:30
Speaker 6: that's an opportunity.
39:31
Speaker 1: I'm not Shankar Osorio, Sarah Longwell, Tramwen. Thank you guys
39:36
Speaker 1: so much for joining, uh, and lending your insights. This was, uh,
39:40
Speaker 1: this was fantastic. I really appreciate it.
39:42
Speaker 5: Thank you.
39:42
Speaker 4: Thank you.
39:43
Speaker 6: Thanks for having me.
39:45
Speaker 1: So why did these Biden voters switch parties to me?
39:49
Speaker 1: It seemed like they weren't too happy with how things
39:51
Speaker 1: were going or how their leaders were handling the issues
39:53
Speaker 1: they care about. Issues like the cost of living, health care,
39:56
Speaker 1: and education. They wanted change. They didn't think former Governor
40:01
Speaker 1: Terry McAuliffe represented change. And they didn't really buy Terry's
40:04
Speaker 1: argument that Glenn Youngkin was a Trump clone. It may
40:08
Speaker 1: seem like there's little for Democrats to learn from this
40:11
Speaker 1: specific race with these specific candidates. And there is a
40:14
Speaker 1: historic pattern where the party that just won the presidency
40:16
Speaker 1: tends to perform worse in Virginia's off-year elections. It's part
40:20
Speaker 1: of that natural backlash we talked about in the last episode.
40:24
Speaker 1: But I do think there are a few observations from
40:26
Speaker 1: these Biden-Yunkin voters worth thinking about as we head into November.
40:31
Speaker 1: The first and most important is that these voters are gettable.
40:35
Speaker 1: They have not abandoned the Democratic Party for good. They're
40:38
Speaker 1: anxious about inflation and grumpy about politics. And really, who isn't?
40:43
Speaker 1: But many of them plan to vote for Democrats again.
40:46
Speaker 1: And all of them are at least open to it.
40:51
Speaker 1: It's also notable that none of these voters supported Glenn
40:54
Speaker 1: Youngkin because of his position on critical race theory. In fact,
40:58
Speaker 1: a few voted for Youngkin despite explicitly disagreeing with his
41:01
Speaker 1: position on critical race theory. As Sarah Longwell said, CRT
41:05
Speaker 1: and other right-wing obsessions tend to be base plays. They
41:09
Speaker 1: fire up MAGA voters who are already fired up, but
41:12
Speaker 1: they're not creating a lot of new Republicans. If anything,
41:16
Speaker 1: there's evidence that the extreme positions the right has taken
41:18
Speaker 1: on issues like abortion and same-sex marriage are now moving
41:21
Speaker 1: people away from the Republican Party, especially since the Supreme
41:25
Speaker 1: Court and Republican legislatures have made some of those positions
41:29
Speaker 1: a reality for millions. We recorded this focus group just
41:34
Speaker 1: after the leaked draft of the court's decision overturning Roe v.
41:37
Speaker 5: Wade.
41:38
Speaker 1: When the court announced its final ruling in June, and
41:41
Speaker 1: many states started to outlaw abortion, I wanted to check
41:44
Speaker 1: in with one of the Youngkin voters, a woman named Christine,
41:47
Speaker 1: who'd been on the fence about the midterms.
41:49
Speaker 3: I would say it would be a little more swayed
41:51
Speaker 3: towards a candidate that was more towards women's rights. My opinion,
41:58
Speaker 3: abortion over 15 weeks, I struggle with that very much so.
42:00
Speaker 3: But there are so many reasons out there why a
42:03
Speaker 3: woman would have to have one, would need to have one.
42:05
Speaker 3: So for that to be taken away, it is very
42:08
Speaker 3: concerning to me because someday I would want my granddaughters
42:11
Speaker 3: to at least be able to have that choice. And
42:14
Speaker 3: if it's going to go the way, well, it is,
42:16
Speaker 3: it's going to go the way of the state's I
42:18
Speaker 3: don't want to feel, even at one vote, responsible for
42:21
Speaker 3: voting for someone that's going to.
42:23
Speaker 5: Take it away.
42:25
Speaker 1: Nearly all of the MAGA candidates running in those midterms
42:27
Speaker 1: want to take that choice away. And some will have
42:30
Speaker 1: the power to do so if they win. Already, Glenn
42:33
Speaker 1: Youngkin has threatened to limit abortion access in Virginia.
42:36
Speaker 9: I believe as a pro-life governor that life begins at conception.
42:41
Speaker 1: But it's up to Democrats to make sure voters know that.
42:45
Speaker 1: As Terry McCullough found out the hard way, It's not
42:47
Speaker 1: enough to just call these candidates Trumpy. We have to
42:50
Speaker 1: point out why they're Trumpy and why they're extreme. We
42:53
Speaker 1: have to say it over and over again, and we
42:55
Speaker 1: can't give up on people like Christine just because they
42:57
Speaker 1: once voted Republican or because they don't agree with Democrats
43:00
Speaker 1: on every issue. People are complicated. And remember, most of
43:07
Speaker 1: them aren't paying attention to politics nearly as closely as
43:10
Speaker 1: we are. In fact, the Virginia group was probably the
43:13
Speaker 1: most politically informed and engaged of all the voters I
43:15
Speaker 1: spoke to for this season. If Democrats want to win,
43:19
Speaker 1: we have to reach people who are much less informed
43:21
Speaker 1: and much less engaged. People who aren't even sure if
43:24
Speaker 1: they're going to vote.
43:25
Speaker 4: I would argue where the numbers lie for us in
43:27
Speaker 4: the midterms are people who defected to the couch, not
43:31
Speaker 4: who defected parties.
43:33
Speaker 7: I can't watch the news.
43:34
Speaker 1: I stay out of it.
43:36
Speaker 5: I agree.
43:37
Speaker 7: It's exhausting.
43:38
Speaker 1: So how do we prevent people who aren't paying attention
43:40
Speaker 1: to politics from defecting to the couch this November? We
43:43
Speaker 1: saw that nobody in Western Pennsylvania, from the Democratic Party
43:47
Speaker 1: to the Republican Party, was actually talking to people in
43:50
Speaker 1: a day-to-day way about what their life was like. Next week,
43:54
Speaker 1: we go to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, to find out. The Wilderness
44:07
Speaker 1: is an original podcast from Crooked Media. Season 3 is
44:10
Speaker 1: produced by Dust Light Productions. I'm your host, Jon Favreau.
44:14
Speaker 1: From Crooked Media, our executive producers are Sarah Geismar, Katie Long,
44:17
Speaker 1: and me. Special thanks to Allison Falsetta and Andy Taft
44:21
Speaker 1: for production support. And to Mike Kulishek from Benenson Strategy Group,
44:24
Speaker 1: who helped us with our focus groups. From Dustlight, our
44:28
Speaker 1: executive producer is Misha Youssef. Arwen Nix is our executive editor.
44:32
Speaker 1: Stephanie Cohn is the senior producer. Tamika Adams is the producer,
44:36
Speaker 1: and Francesca Diaz is the assistant producer. This episode was
44:39
Speaker 1: sound designed by Stephanie Cohn. Valentino Rivera is our senior engineer.
44:44
Speaker 1: Martin Fowler is the composer. Thanks to our development and
44:47
Speaker 1: operations coordinator at Dustlight, Rachel Garcia, and to Chrissy Marin
44:50
Speaker 1: for archival legal review. If you want to learn more
44:54
Speaker 1: about how you can take action in the fight for
44:56
Speaker 1: our democracy, head over to votesaveamerica.com slash midterms.