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Florida St./Virginia NCAAF + MLB + WNBA Playoffs Best Bets Friday 9/26/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Own seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all all in
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: four that have not had a good season. Man with
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: wookends slump that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: browins hat man, I don't know what is going on
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: with the Bruins. March is that what it is? I
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: don't even know it's March ninth. I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. I don't even
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: know what data is anymore. Man, back with you after
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: the worst day that I could possibly have, act with
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: you as I always am until I die at least
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not go
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: well for me. Own five the worst month that I've
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: know what to even tell you about this anymore. Slump,
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: yes series, the slump discontinues, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: do at this point, other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's sewed back with you. Better off dead. Friday,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: September twenty six. Hopefully this video is not going to
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: be that long, although I fear that it will be,
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: because we got a lot going on. We have the
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: last series of the Major League Baseball season beginning. Full
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: baseball slate here. I'm gonna have two baseball plays. I
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: will have one WNBA player going to talk about those games.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: I have two college football plays on the three college
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: football games. I actually have a fairly strong opinion on
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: all three games. So it's just that's just the way
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: that it works out. So Yesterday one and zero. As
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: we continue to win, we're on a nice hot streak
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: right now. The only play I gave out yesterday and
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Thursday's card was the New York Mets. They got it done.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: We handicapped the starting pitching matchup correctly. Imon Naga struggled
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: in that game. Mets were the more motivated team. They
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: won eight to five, but it was kind of more
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: lopsided than that. They were winning eight to two pretty
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: late in the game. So luckily they didn't blow it
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: or anything like that. But I thought that the Bullpens
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: were still it was still fine to include the bullpens.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: I thought we were gonna get a full game effort
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: out of the Mets being one of the teams that
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: still is fighting for a playoff spot and it's not
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: secure yet. So that's what happened last night. Let's get
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: into it, man, Let's do this. The breakdown WNBA coming
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: up first. I actually kind of I do have an
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: opinion on both of these games. Two on the side,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: which really it's just the zig zag, like, this is
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: what you do man in NBA playoffs. I think the
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: same thing could be applied to WNBA playoffs, where when
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: you had an outlier in the previous game, you want
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: to tend to look towards going in the opposite direction. Here.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: So Vegas is at Indiana. Both these series are now
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: switching to the other team's venue. Vegas is having to
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: travel to Indiana might not be the easiest spot for
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Vegas to have to go on the road to Indiana,
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: and I believe Indiana beat them. I don't know if
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: they played them once or twice in Indiana this year,
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: but Indiana did beat them, I think by a fairly
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: significant margin at home, and at least one of those
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: games it might have been the only game at home,
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: so Indiana could definitely compete with them, which we do know,
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: because Indiana did beat them in Vegas. But I believe
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: in all the regular season games at least Sophie Cunningham
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: was there. I don't think Clark was there for all
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: the games. But now Indiana's of course without both of them,
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: so Indiana does have a short roster here, although they
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: have been playing pretty well even without them. I would
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: lean to Indiana on this one. Vegas is down for
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: four and a half to four. I know I gave
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: out Vegas in game two because I thought it was
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: a great spot to play them in the zigzag there
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: because Indiana came into their place and upset them in
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: what was kind of an outlier type of result in
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: the first game, and then that game too, I think
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: was maybe a little bit of an outlier as well,
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: just because it was such an easy win for Vegas
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: winning ninety to sixty eight, So I mean, I'll take
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: it when I gave out a play on that side.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: It was really easy for them. Vegas had a great
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: shooting performance fifty three point eight percent from a field,
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: forty one point seven percent from three. That's probably not
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: gonna happen again. Indiana was a little bit on the
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: I don't want to say it was a total outlier,
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: but they didn't shoot particularly well. Forty one percent from
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: the field, thirty five percent from three is fine. Rebound
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: battle was actually still even. Of course, Vegas did win
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: the turnover battle this time, and I believe the the
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: free throw the free throw discrepancy that happened in the
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: first game balanced itself back out, which I thought was
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: gonna happen in this game. Much better performance from Asia Wilson,
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: which I thought would happen. I think maybe she was
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: distracted by the MVP winning the MVP going into that
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: first game. But still, this is a tough travel spot
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: for them, having to go to Indiana. Indiana. It will
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: be the team with the adjustments to make because Vegas
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: basically played a perfect game almost in that game, so
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: they really don't have any adjustments to make coming into
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: this one. So I do into Indiana plus the points,
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: but I think the better game is laying the points
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: with Minnesota. I know we're laying a road favor here,
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: which I usually don't like to do them. By the way,
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: market read on that Vegas down from four and a
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: half to four here, fifty eight percent of tickets, only
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: fifty four percent of the cash on them, So the
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: money's agreeing with that. The money is also seemingly agreeing
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: with Minnesota here. The line did drop a little bit
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: from four and a half to three and a half,
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: but we're gonna go with Minnesota here. Lay the points
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: with Minnesota against Phoenix. Sixty nine percent tickets, seventy three
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Minnesota, so while they are
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: public as well, which makes sense, I think this is
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: a spot to do it. And I know Minnesota did
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: play twice at Phoenix this year and they won one
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: game by three, so they didn't cover this and they
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: lost the other game outright, so I get it they're
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: own two against this number at Phoenix. But this is
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: all about the spot man Minnesota. I mean, they're still
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: the best team in the league, and this is an
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: angle that we use in the NBA playoffs a lot
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: when when the better team loses at home, they tend
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: to be a good play in the next game, regardless
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: of whether they're at home or on the road. Traveling
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: to Phoenix isn't exactly like a spot that they're not
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: totally familiar with or anything like that. So I think
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: this is fine. By the way, I probably should have
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: mentioned because these teams have had rest. That does help
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Indiana as far as them not having a really full
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: roster there, the fact they have rest coming into this
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: game does help as far as that's concernable. All these
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: teams are gonna be rested coming in here. But Minnesota,
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: the way that they lost Game two, this is the
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: type of thing I look for. Man, I'm gonna look
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: to go for that. I'm gonna look for that team
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: to bounce back. I mean, Minnesota had won all three
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: of their playoff games so far. They got caught in
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: this game against Phoenix. But Minnesota dominated most of this
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: game against Phoenix. I mean, in the third quarter they
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: were winning this game by twenty points. It was I
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: believe it was the biggest comeback in WNBA history in
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: the playoffs for Phoenix. That's just ridiculous, man. So you
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: gotta think that when Phoenix does that, it's gonna take
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: something out of them, man, Like, can they really put
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: in another effort like that two games in a row?
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Like they got handled in this game and they somehow
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: wound up erasing that huge deficit, went into overtime and
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: won the game. I don't think that's gonna happen again.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: Minnesota had a really bad shooting game forty five point
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: three percent from the field, twenty five percent from three,
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: while Phoenix shot forty point six percent from three. I mean,
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: forty five point three percent is in that bad. Minnesota
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: actually had a better field goal percentage, but the three
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: point percentage was really the outlier. Twenty five percent from
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: Minnesota forty point six percent for Phoenix. I don't think
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: they're gonna shoot like that again from three. Minnesota's gonna
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: have the adjustments to make, man. After they I think
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: they just got complacent in this game and maybe just
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: took their foot off the gas too soon and got caught.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: So they're the better team, They're gonna be the team
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: with the adjustments to make. They actually lost the turnover
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: battle at home, so these are things Minnesota could definitely
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: clean up. I mean, they can fix this three point defense,
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: come out with more intensity there. They could fix the
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: mistakes a bit too. The rebounding battle is actually even
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: as well, which is a little bit strange. So I
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: think it's gonna be a game where Minnesota is the
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: team that makes the adjustments, man, and they're the better
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: team here. They were the better team in both of
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: those first two games. It's just they yeah again they
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: I think they just got a little bit too secure
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: in that lead in the first game and wound up
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: blowing it. So and the line I think is fine here.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: I think they're a pretty substantial favorite in these games
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: at home. In game two, well, they were seven and
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite in Game two somewhere between like
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: eight and a half. Seven and a half is probably
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: about accurate from Minnesota at home. So the line being
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: about three and a half four here it makes sense.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, Phoenix, well, no team has really a ton
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: of home court advantage in the WNBA, Like you probably
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: only get like a couple points, maybe just because it's
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, So the line is about right here. But
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: I just think it's gonna be a spot where Minnesota
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: does make the adjustments. Man, you really don't need them
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: to win by that much in this game, so I
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: think they can do it. I know Phoenix is pretty
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: good at home. Fifteen and seven Minnesota, that was only
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: their third loss at home all season. I know they're
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: on the road here where they were a little bit
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: more beatable on the road, but they still have a
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: pretty solid road record too, So we'll go with Minnesota
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: in the WNBA. Let's go to Major League Baseball here.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: This is gonna take a while. We have afternoon baseball
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: here because of course we do, because it's Wrigley Field.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: This is what happened Saint Louis at the CUB in
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: this one. Cubs are a little bit of a disadvantage
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: because they are coming off a series where they did
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: play yesterday. We got the Mets correct in the game yesterday.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis was off yesterday, but they are traveling in
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: it from San Francisco, so Saint Louis does have more rest.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: But they did also lose a three game win streak there,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: so sometimes when a team loses a win streak, they
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: tend to potentially be hung over in the next game.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: But I think Saint Louis will show up for this
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: it is their last series. It is against the Cubs.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis knows they're not going anywhere, so they might
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: show up for a series against the Cubs. The Cubs,
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: I believe, are essentially locked into the five seed or
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: EXAs the four seed in the playoffs, so I think
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: that's pretty much where they are. So neither of these
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: teams actually have a ton of motivation here. Saint Louis
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: might have a little bit more motivation because the Cubs
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: are already getting ready to play in the playoffs, where
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: it's Saint Louis. This is their last series of the year,
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: so I think Saint Louis might actually show up with
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: a little bit extra motivation. So my first reaction to
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: this was maybe I want to look towards Saint Louis here.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis actually does have the better bullpen as well.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Hold on, let me just make sure my voice is
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: UH is doing all right here, my mic I always
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: forget to mike check once I go live. Let me
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: make sure of that right now. But yeah, Saint Louis
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: does have the better bullpen out of these tool though
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: both bullpens are all right, But of course Saint Louis
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: does have the more rested bullpen coming into this game
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: as well. They do not have the better offense, though
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: the Cubs have the better offense, even though they haven't
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: been as good recently. As far as the bullpen usage,
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: we know Saint Louis was off yesterday. The Cubs haven't
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: used a ton of theirs. They used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis still gets the edge there starting pitching. On
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: the surface, it doesn't look like Saint Louis would have
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: the edge in the starting pitching with Miles Mikolis pitching
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: very mediocre pitcher getting up there in age for sure,
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: A four point seven to six ERA this year one
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: point three to three whip. He is way worse on
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: the road six point three to three roady RA. He's
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: actually been a little bit better this month A three ERA.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in all four starts,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: actually the last five starts he's been able to do that,
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: so he's been decent over that stretch. He faced some
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: pretty decent offenses this month too, the A's Seattle Milwaukee,
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: but he's not striking out a lot of guys, though,
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: that isn't really what he does ten to four strike
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: up walk ratio, just a low strikeout rate, but again,
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: he's not really a strikeout pitcher, so you can maybe
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: give him a pass for that. Against the Cubs, he
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: does not have good numbers though, and they have a
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: lot of history against him in two hundred at bats.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: He does have a good strike out walk ratio against
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: them though, thirty three to five, but he's allow of
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: three ten average and eight forty seven ops to them,
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: and PCA has some ridiculous stats against some if you
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: want to look for player props, which I don't mention
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: a whole lot anymore. But he's six for seven off
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: amiklus with four home runs. That is unbelievable, So maybe
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: something to look for there, But I don't really the
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Cubs hitting to be that focused in this game, to
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: be honest, because they're already looking ahead to the playoffs
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: in my opinion, which might become even more of a
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: factor in the last game, so I would be paying
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: attention to that. The last game of this series. It's
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: going to be Saint Louis's absolute last game of the season.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: The Cubs are going to be looking ahead to the playoffs,
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: so that is definitely a spot where maybe you want
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: to look for Saint Louis. This one is not going
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: to be a play for me though. In this game.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Colin Ray is pitching for the Cubs. He is the
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: better of these two pitchers. He's had a decent season
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: four point one ERA, one point two eight whip home
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: and road splits are almost exactly the same. He's been
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: good this month, allowing three or few earned runs and
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: all of his starts twenty five to three strikeout walk
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: ratio three point three two EIRA. Although he's lost his
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: last three starts or the Cubs have lost those three,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: very little run support from the Cubs for him in
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: those games, thankfully, because I went against him at one
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: of those games. In the last one against Cincinnati, he
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: somehow exploded for eleven strikeouts and allowed one ear run
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: in that one, but we still won because Hunter Green
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: still outpitched him and had a complete game. Ray does
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: do well against Saint Louis. It's sixty two at bats
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: thirteen to eight strike a walk ratio is not good,
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: but a one sixty one average allowed in four ninety
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: nine oh ps that's really good. So Saint Louis has
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: not been able to hit him in the past, so
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: that's the issue with this is I think the situation motivationally,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: I think it's better for Saint Louis here, but the
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup is just in favor of the Cubs here,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: so I don't really want to deal with it. I
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: do think Saint Louis has the bullpen edge. I mean,
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: if you really want to go with Saint Louis based
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: on them having rest plus, you know, just rest in
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: motivation here, you could take a shot with it moneyline
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: full game or maybe run line full game. You want
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: to go full game if you take Saint Louis, because
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: I think their biggest disadvantage here is the starting pitching matchup.
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: Cubs are now for minus one seventy one sixty three
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: on the money line, eighty eight percent of tickets, ninety
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them. They are very public here,
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: so I wouldn't really have much of an issue agreeing
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: with fading the Cubs here. That would be my lean
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: in this game, but it's not strong. Jordan, what's up man?
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out again. All right? We got Chicago
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: White Sox at Washington Washington I believe was off yesterday too,
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: But they are turning home from a road trip. But
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: they did stay on the East coast Mets Atlanta is
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: where they were. I always talk about when teams are
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: turning home from road trips, it can be a distracted
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: spot because you've been away from home. You have to
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: get back to home life. Especially a team that's going
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: nowhere like Washington, they can lapse and focus and not
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: be really focused. So this is the final series of
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: the season, so maybe there is reason to show up
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: just for one final series here. Obviously, both these teams
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: are going nowhere. White Sox maybe in a little bit
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: of an extra disadvantage because not only did they play yesterday,
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: but they lost to the Yankees again in a close game.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: Or the White Sox had the lead in that game
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: three to one in like the middle of the game.
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: And I'm not happy about this. Obviously, the Yankees wound
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: up winning the White Sox blue leads in two of
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: the three games in that series. Not happy about it
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: at all. So the White Sox did have to play yesterday, Well,
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: Washington at least was off. Washington's bullpen is bad. Both
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: these bullpens are pretty bad. Washington's is at least rested,
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: but it is a very bad bullpen. The White Sox
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: have the better bullpen, and they use a little bit
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: of it yesterday, though I still think that Washington's is
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: so bad that the White Sox probably still have a bullpen.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: Atch here, both offenses are bad. Probably the White Sox
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: offense is the slightly better one, although let me see here. Wait, yeah,
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: wrong tab yet again. Yeah, White Sox third worst offense here.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: Washington is twenty fifth, so not that much better with
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: the White Sox being twenty eighth. That's in ops for
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: the team on the season. Starting pitching here, a couple
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: of pitchers that we don't really know exactly who they
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: are at this point. I don't think Yenderis Gomez is
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: pitching for the White Sox. They picked him up in
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: the middle of the season. He's actually not been terrible
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: with the White Sox overall numbers this year four point
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: nine to two ERA, one point three to nine WHIP.
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: Nothing about that is good really, five point six' four ROAD,
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: era so he's not as good on the. Road he's
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: been okay this. Month the four point four to three
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: E rn eighteen to three strike a walk ratio is pretty,
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: good so his command has been pretty on. Point he's
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: not going too deep into these, games but he has
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: gone at least five innings in all the games this.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: Month so he's pitching. Okay he's going up Against. Washington
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: DO i think have never faced? Him, yeah so he
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: has a little bit of an extra edge year Because
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: washington has never seen him. BEFORE i talk about that
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: when hitters haven't seen a starting, pitcher but for sometimes
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: they struggle to figure him. Out it kind of gets
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: exacerbated if the pitcher is actually. Good. THOUGH i don't
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: know if we know If gomez is actually good or.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: Not but he's pitching okay right. Now he's going up
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: Against Katee, cavali who is Starting washington. Here he made
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: one start in twenty twenty two and then he must
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: have been dealing with injuries or something because that was
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: the only time he pitched in the majors prior to this.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: Year this, year he's been really up and. Down four
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: point two to THREE, era one point four to three
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: whip that is definitely too high of a. Whip he
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: is good at home, though two point one to one HOME,
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: era and he's been okay this month with a three
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: point one to FIVE, era but his walk rate has
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: been high twelve to seven strikeout walk race here this.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: Month so the strikeout rate is low and the walk
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: rate is high just because he walked four guys Against.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh other than, that it wasn't too, Bad so he's
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: not really a strikeout. Pitcher but he's allowed few. Runs
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: he's allowed three or few earned runs and every start
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: this month on actually all but two starts that he's
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: made so far this. Season out of nine starts which
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: his team has actually, won what is that seven of
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: the nine starts that's kind of, crazy all four this,
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: Month So washington is winning behind. Him he's going up
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: against this pretty Weak White sox offense, here and they
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: have not seen him before, either so he might have
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: an advantage as, well going up against a team that's
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: never faced him. Before SO i think this is kind
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: of a sneaky under type of game, here, MAN i
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: don't really want to do. IT i don't know IF
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: i really trust either of these pitchers, necessarily THOUGH i
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: Know cavali is coming off a good start against The
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: mets on the. Road he shut them out for five,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: innings which is pretty, impressive especially against a team THAT i,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: mean that's a team that can hit and needs to
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: be playing with some motivation right. Now so it's all.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: INTERESTING i, Mean washington's very public, though ninety three percent,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: tickets ninety five percent of the cash on. THEM i
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: don't want to touch. That they're up for minus one
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: twenty five to minus one twenty, seven BUT i think
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: the under is probably my preference in this. Game we
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: have a lot of tickets on the over ninety two,
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: percent eighty eight percent of the, cash so less of
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: the cash at. Least total's just kind of sitting there
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: at eight and a, half not really. Moving maybe under
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: first five innings is the better, approach, though because neither
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: bullpen is really something you really want to bank. ON
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: i would say, SO i think first five under is
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: probably the WAY i would look in that. Game minnesota At.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia philadelphia did play. YESTERDAY i believe they shut out In. Miami.
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: PHILADELPHIA i, mean obviously they already clinched their division a
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: long time. Ago THEY i think technically could still Catch.
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: MILWAUKEE i think there are two games Behind, milwaukee but
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: it's pretty unlikely to. Happen So philadelphia is pretty much
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: locked into the two seed in The National league, here
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: so maybe not really a huge motivational spot for them.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: Here minnesota played yesterday as. Well both teams played. Yesterday
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: minnesota is traveling WHEREAS i Believe philadelphia is staying at.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: Home minnesota traveling in From, texas so a little bit
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: less of a good spot From minnesota. Here The minnesota
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: actually started playing a little bit better over those those
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: last few, games But minnesota at a travel disadvantage. Here
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: both of these bullpens are. Bad minnesota used a few
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers. Yesterday philadelphia also used a, few soch isn't too,
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: high but these are bad. Bullpens minnesota's is really. Bad
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: they're twenty sixth in overall bullpenning Ra phillies are, twentieth
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: so The phillies actually have the slightly better bullpend. Here
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: let me look at the starting pitching matchup Where minnesota's
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: best pitcher is Pitching Joe rye and good season for
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: him three point four to seven E ra one point
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: zero four. Whip he's basically almost the same home and,
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: away but he hasn't been good. Recently, man it seems
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: like he's kind of just packed it In he's allowed
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: four or more on runs now in four of his
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: last six. Outings that's not a good. Sign this, month
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: he has a NINE era and an eleven to eight
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: strike out walk, ratio so he seems to just be
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: really just unfocused right. Now it seems like he's just
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: pretty much done for the. Season he allowed four home
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: runs last time out Against, cleveland which not helpful to
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: me as A Red sox. Fans The Red sox are
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: still trying to get a wildcard spot here In. Minnesota
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: wasn't able to Beat cleveland like at. ALL i think
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: they won one, game and that's The Joe ryan. Game
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: was part of that doublehead or sweep For. Cleveland. There
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: cleveland absolutely ridiculous that they're fairly likely to make the.
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: Playoffs Now Joe ryan up against what do we even,
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: say who are we playing? Against? Philadelphia? Right this is
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: a weird, matchup man weird inter league, Game Minnesota. Philadelphia Joe.
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: Ryan Actually philadelphia has never seen him, before which is fairly.
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: STRANGE i Know Joe, RYAN i think he's pitched his
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: entire career in The American, league yet it's all been With.
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: Minnesota it's still a little bit. Weird though That philly
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: hasn't seen him, before but that does mean it's an
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: advantage To Rye AND i mean it really just LIKE
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: i said last, time it depends Is ryan going to show?
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: Up focus because this is going to be his last
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: start of the, Season, like maybe he'll actually show up
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: because you don't want to end your season on an embarrassing,
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: Note so maybe he will show up for this. One
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: he does get to pitch against a good team. Here
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: they haven't seen him, before so if he does show
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: up to, pitch that is an extra advantage To. Ryan
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: we already know he's. Good we have a lot of
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: history that tells us That philly might struggle to hit
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: him if he actually shows up and wants to pitch
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: well here to finish his season on a good, note
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: and maybe he will be motivated to do. That Aaron
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: nola is pitching For. Philadelphia he's had a difficult. Season,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: Man he's coming back FROM i Believe Tommy john. Surgery
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: he used to be a pretty solid pitcher prior to
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: the injury and hasn't really bounced back from. It six
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: point four to SIX era this year one point four
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: or five whip not. Good he's not much better at
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: home either is the ra six at, home although he
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: is better at home than on the. Road still this
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: month six point four or FIVE, era twenty two to
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: seven strike out walk, ratio decent strike out walk, radio
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: but still just pretty bad. Man he's a lot four
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: more and runs in four of his last five games
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: and five of the last, seven actually six of the last.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: Eight he's just not pitching. Well he had one really
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: nice shutout performance for six innings against The mets mixed in,
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: there but just kind of went right back into bad.
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: Form SO i don't know how Trustworthy nola is right,
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: now even THOUGH i know he's up against a pretty
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: Bad minnesota. Offense, Here phillies have the way better offense
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: of these two. Teams his numbers are decent in a
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: fairly small sample size Against minnesota and twenty nine career
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: at bats eleven to four strike a walk ratio is not.
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: Great two forty one batting every seven to thirty seven
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: oh ps allowed not terrible numbers. There so matchup, WISE i,
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: mean it does still look Like Joe ryan does have
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: the matchup edge There. Philly LIKE i, SAID i don't
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: Think philly has a whole lot to play for in
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: this final. Series here is they're pretty much locked into
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: their playoff. Spot the money is Fading philadelphia down for
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: minus what sixty three to minus one forty six eighty
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: three percent of tickets seventy two percent cash on. Them
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: so reverse line moment against a Public phillies. Team you,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: know the public's gonna be on The, phillies even if
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: it is a pitcher who's really, struggling because maybe they
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: Remember nola being good in the. Past THEY i want
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: nothing to do with This minnesota. Team the public likes
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: the team with the better, offense et. Cetera but, again
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: it's about motivation, here AND i do think If ryan
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: does show, up he should be able to Outpitch nola,
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: here SO i would probably lead To minnesota first five,
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: innings ONLY i don't really want to do anything with their,
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: bullpen So minnesota money line first five innings would probably
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: be the WAY i would look at. That baltimore at The.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: Yankees The yankees are still tied With toronto as both
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: teams won, yesterday which means The Red sox are done
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: as far as potentially winning the, division ALTHOUGH i told
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: you they weren't gonna win the DIVISION i told you
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: that The yankees were a good shot to try to
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: get them to win the division when they were at
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: plus two eighty about a month. Ago they're tied With,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: toronto and The toronto does have the, tiebreaker which is
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: the head to, Head so coming down the stretch, here
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: OBVIOUSLY i would prefer That toronto wins wins the division
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: BECAUSE i don't WANT i don't want The yankees to do.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: Anything yankees have won five games in a row and
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: they've won eight of their last. Nine they just swept
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: The White. SOX i, mean they get some easy series
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: to end. This they get to Face baltimore again at home.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: Here they did just take three out of four From.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: Baltimore But baltimore might show up Because, BALTIMORE i, mean
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: it's a series against The. Yankees it's their last. Series
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: so even, though, yeah The yankees are fighting for the,
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: DIVISION i think both teams will be motivated. Here baltimore
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: just got swept or didn't get swept excuse they lost
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: three out of four to The yankees In, Baltimore So
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: baltimore might show up for this. One and by the,
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: way the pitching matchup today is the same one that
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: was the one win for The. ORIOLES i believe in
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: that last. Series i'm pretty sure it. Was AND i
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: gave Out orioles first five innings in that one and
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: that was also a. Winner and it was this same pitching.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: Matchup both these bullpens are. Bad baltimore used four relief
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: pitchers yes today The yankees used only. Three baltimore has
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: the worst of the two, bullpens, though So yankees actually
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: have a bullpen. Edge yankees do have the better off
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: and starting. Pitching, PROBABLY i still give the advantage To
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: baltimore as far as the starting. PITCHING i think it
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: was more significant when the game was In, baltimore, though
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: but we did get the win on the first five
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: innings with this matchup last. Time Trevor rodgers pitching For
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: baltimore been a nice surprise for. Them hasn't pitched a
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: lot this, season but he has done. Well one point
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: three to FIVE era for, him point eight seven. Whip
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: he is a little bit worse on the, road one
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: point six SIX, thera still really. Good he's allowed one
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: or fewer earned run in every start going all the
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: way back Into, july and he's allowed two or fewer
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: in all but one. Start all, season he has not
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: a lot more than three in any. Stars this, month
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: he has a one point ONE. Era his walk number
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: did go up a little bit nineteen to seven strikeout walk,
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: ratio just because he walked four Against, toronto but that
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: didn't concern me going with the first five innings last time,
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: out where he one hit and shut out The yankees
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: for six innings that time and outpitched his counterpart, Here Will.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: Warren so he did do well in that when we
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: got the win on that one in the first five.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: Innings he is going up Against Will warren again. Here
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: warren mediocre season for him for The. Yankees four point
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: three to FIVE, era one point three to seven. Whip
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: he is way better at home, though so part of
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: the reason WHY i liked that one the last time
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: out is because he was pitching on the. Road he's
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: not as good on the. Road his ra at home
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: is significantly better, though three point two eight at. Home
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: he's been okay this month, overall four point six FOUR,
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: era fifteen to four strike a walk. Razio he wasn't
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: awful in that starting Against. Baltimore The yankees fielding was
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: bad behind. Him The yankees fielding really is not that
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: good man with A chisholm And volpi. There he allowed
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: one earned run in that, outing but he did put
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: some guys on base a couple of on eurn runs,
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: scored so he did still get outpitched And rogers lasted
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: longer in that. Game BUT i do Think warren probably
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: should do better at home than he did on the road.
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: There but part of the reason WHY i did also
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: Fade warren in that game is because he actually doesn't
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: do that well Against. Baltimore he now has thirty six
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: at bats against, them seven to six strikeout walk, ratio
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: which is not, good two seventy eight batting average allowed
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: in eight to fifty three, ops So baltimore is able
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: to hit him a little. Bit oh AND i forgot
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: to go To rogers' numbers against The, yankees my. Mistake
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: rogers against The yankees does have good numbers and fifty
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: two at bats fifteen to eight strike out walk ratio isn't,
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: good but he's telling them to a one to thirty
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: five batting average at four to sixty two oh, ps
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: which is really impressive against this. Offense SO i do
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: Think rogers does still have the edge in this, matchup
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: SO i WOULD i would still have the same lean
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: THAT i had in the other, game which would Be
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: baltimore in the first five innings, only BUT i don't
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: want to do it in this one where they're on the.
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: Road this. Time yankees look like they're actually getting some
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: of the. Money they're up for minus one to forty
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: five to minus one forty, six seventy four percent of,
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: tickets eighty seven percent of the cap on. THEM i
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: will just pass on the, game. Man tampa At, Toronto
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: i'm gonna give out a play on, that So i'll
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: skip that for. Now detroit At, boston My Boston Red.
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: Sox they're returning on from a road, trip but they
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: went To tampa And, toronto so they're not changing time zones,
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: here but still a road trip return spot where sometimes
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: the team can be a little bit distracted they have
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: to get back to home. Life but it is a
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: spot where The Red sox are still fighting for the
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: last wildcard. Spot, man it's basically Between Red Sox, detroit
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: Maybe cleveland If detroit gets somehow get back into first
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: place there And. Houston So, seattle by the, way is
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: clinch The Al west, now so something to consider, there
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: so wild the last wildcard spot is going to Be Red,
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: Sox houston Or, DETROIT i, believe so, YEAH i, MEAN
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: i think that's the way it works out Or, cleveland
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: depending on which one of the teams wins the. Division
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: so it is possible that any of those four teams
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: doesn't make the. PLAYOFFS i believe two of the four
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: will make the, playoffs If i'm not. Mistaken is that?
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: Right because we know that the playoffs are gonna be
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: at this, point we know it's gonna Be Toronto. SEATTLE
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: i Mean, toronto there's no way they're gonna wind up
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: falling out and the YANK i Believe toronto and The
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: yankees have already clinched a playoff. Spot they can't not
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs at this. Point it's just one is
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: gonna be a wild card and the other win the.
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: Division so we Have toronto and The Yankees. Seattle what
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: AM i missing? Here so it's, yeah so it's those. Three,
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: oh but THEN i guess we need how many how
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: many wildcards even make? It? Now three or? Right SO
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: i guess only one of those teams is gonna be
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: left out of the. Playoffs, yeah so, Right so whoever
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: wins the division Between detroit And cleveland would get, in
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: and THEN i think only one of those teams will
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: be left. Out so it's gonna Be, Boston, Houston detroit Or.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: CLEVELAND i think one of those teams will not make the,
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: playoffs and then the three that are already in Or,
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: toronto The, yankees And Seattle. Crazy it's crazy how that works. Out,
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: Anyway Red sox could be a little bit, distracted but
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: because they are up against one of the teams they're
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: fighting for a wild card spot right, now which Is,
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: detroit they can't afford to not be focused, here SO
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: i don't think the home return distraction spot really gonna
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: be that much of an issue. Here detroit is coming
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: in From, cleveland so they're traveling as. Well although the
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: travel spot is still worse for The Red, sox there's
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: no doubt about. That Red sox do have the better,
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: bullpen and they didn't use a ton of it. Yesterday
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: detroit used more of their bullpen. Yesterday actual they use
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: a lot of it because they had a bullpen game,
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: Yesterday so not really a great spot for The detroit bullpen.
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: Here detroit's bullpen has kind of tailed off a little bit.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: TOO i think where are they? At Red sox are
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: a third overall and bullpenny Al Righty, detroit where are they?
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: At they were all the way down to, Seventeen so
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: The Red sox have a pretty significant bullpen edge. Here,
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: offense The Red sox actually have the better offense as.
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: Well they're at eighth in overall ops and THEN i
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: know they're a little bit worse Without Roman Anthony detroit
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: not far behind At twelfth's pretty close between the two.
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: OFFENSES i do think The Red sox have a starting pitching.
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: Edge Casey mize is pitching For. DETROIT i keep saying
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: THAT i don't think he's as good as his numbers
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: would make him. Appear three point nine ONE. Era he's
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: had a good, season one point two eight, whip not,
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: horrible although it's a little bit. High but the advanced
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: analytics guys are kind of all over. It man Saying
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: miz is not as good as his numbers, look AND i,
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: agree if you look at his career, numbers he's not
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: really this. Good he's a little bit worse on the
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: road four point one to five road Era detroit a
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: bit worse on the road as, well so at least
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: The Red sox get to finish at home where they're
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: forty six and thirty. Two detroit is actually above five
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: hundred on the road though at forty and thirty. Eight but,
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: Anyway miz he's been okay though over the last month
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: twenty four to this month twenty four to four strike
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: a walk, ratio did pitch well against The mets And
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: yankees this month three point six to EIGHTY, ra so
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: he's been better this month than last. Month so he's
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: actually in good form right, now which does worry me
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: a little. Bit up against The Red. SOX i think
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: they've hit him okay thirty three at. Bats it's not
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: a huge sample, size but six to three strike a walk,
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: ratio three to zero three batting, average nine to eighty eight.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: Ops so The Red sox have hit him okay in the,
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: past so maybe they will be able to do so again.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: Here Kyle, harrison especially for The Red, sox he may
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: be the best component of That devers trade Because hicks
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: has not done. Well they traded Away, tibbs who maybe
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: may wind up being. Good it Was, tibbs, right AM
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: i getting that confused BECAUSE i FORGET i keep forgetting
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: which one is which, now BECAUSE i know The Red
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: sox had like that really good catching prospect that they
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: traded For crochet and then whatever the outfielder was that
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: they got in The devers, trade they traded for Fucking Dustin,
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: May i'm pretty, sure which is just a horrific trade
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: for The Red. Sox they never should have done. That
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: The devas TRADE i thought was additioned by subtraction, though
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: because they're Paying devs so. Much he's a head. Case
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: San francisco is not making the, playoffs so, whatever So
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: harrison might actually be pumped to be pitching for a contender.
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: Here he does have good numbers of this season between
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: pitching with The giants a little bit and with The Red.
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: Sox and he's still, young so he's still developing three
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: point five EIGHTY, ra one point one to NINE. Whip
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: that's pretty. Good he's been really bad at home nine
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: point four to FIVE, era but that was all With San.
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: FRANCISCO i know that's not good Because San francisco is
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: a pitcher friendly, park but the majority of his outings
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: have been on the road this. Year it's a very
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: small sample, size SO i don't really see how we
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: could take that much away from. It. Man he really
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: only had like six seven innings total at, home and
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: one of them was he just got bombed By San
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: diego and that was, like, really that's the only thing
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: That that's where his entire home era is coming. From
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: basically since being acquired by The Red. Sox The Red
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: sox had him in the miners for a. WHILE i
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: think they worked with him in the, miners decided it
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: was time to bring him, up and he's actually been
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: good since they brought him. Up he had a couple
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: of difficult tasks pitching at The a's and At Tampa,
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: bay and those are the two were ardiculous temporary stadiums
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: that are some of the most hit or friendly parks out.
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: There he went three shutout innings against The a's and
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: he went six innings last time out Against. Tampa made
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: a full start and allowed one ear and run to.
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: Them it's a good, sign. Man i'll only allowed one
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: ear and run over those combined nine innings seven to
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: two strike out walk, Ratio So harrison looked pretty good
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: in those. Outings that's a good. Sign and he's going
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: up Against. Detroit DO i believe he has never faced him,
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: before so another added edge. There, again when you have
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: a young pitcher like this that's unfamiliar to the opposing,
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: hitters they got to kind of figure him out on the.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: Fly could be an advantage To harrison early. On SO
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: i do think The Red sox have an advantage as
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: far as that's. CONCERNED i think the matchup edge is
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: actually in favor of The Red sox across the board.
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: Here it's just a matter of can they overcome the
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: return home spot. Here And harrison is a, lefty so
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: sometimes that can kind of add to the unfamiliarity a
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: little bit, because for whatever, reason lefties kind of throw
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: from more unpredictable arm arm slots, whatever the angle is
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: a little bit harder to pick. Up sometimes the money
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: is coming in on The Red sox in this one
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: fifty three percent ticket seventy eight percent of the, cash
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: even though they initially went down from minus one thirty
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: five to minus one. Twenty don't know why that, was
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: but it does look like the money is coming in
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: on The Red, sox and the public is kind of
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: split on the, game so slightly into The Red, sox
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: AND i hope they get it. Done man as A
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: Red sox. Fan i've got my hat on backwards, Here
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: Tower GANG. Npc what's up man TO i, Mean, nate
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: what's up? Man Todkiv's. Maingo that's. Right thanks for hanging, out.
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: Guys all, right we Got mets At. Miami miami might
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: still show some motivation here just because they are playing
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: against teams in their division that are potentially at least
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: gonna make the. Playoffs so maybe a little bit of.
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: Motivation but The, METS i told you they were in
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: a difficult spot yesterday because they lost a long wind.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: Streak they had a seven game win streak snapped Against
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: philadelphia and that can tend to hang you over a little.
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: Bit but they played pretty well, yesterday only losing one to,
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: Nothing SO i could see it going both. Ways Like
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: miami might show up in this game with some motivation
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: because it's the last series of the. Season they get
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: to face one of the better teams in the division
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: in The. Mets but they are also a bad team
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: returning home from a road trip coming off another big,
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: series so it's not exactly a good spot For. Miami
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: they went To texas and or excuse In, Colorado texas
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: And philadelphia on that road. Trip so they're returning home
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: from a long road. Trip, Man So miami might fall
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: into that return home distracted spot with not they know
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: they're not going, anywhere you, Know so are they gonna
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: be able to get motivated for The. Mets, maybe but
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: they are still returning home from that road. Trip it's
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: a difficult spot for. Them, man could be a distraction.
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: Spot AND i tell you these teams that are somewhat
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: bad teams in that bad spot returning home from a
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: long road. TRIP i said this About anaheim the other
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: day when we got that right on The. Royals if
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: that team is an, underdog it's especially a bad situation
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: and actually makes it even worse if they were off
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: the day before, that Although miami. Wasn't but, yeah like
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: that team tends to just kind of fall into that
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: bad spot. There The mets have to keep, playing, man
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: because they're still trying to maintain this wildcard. SPOT i
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: believe they're one game ahead of The. Reds, still both
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: teams won yesterday and the D backs, Lost so the
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: D backs are two games. Backs the D backs are almost.
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: Eliminated it's either gonna be The mets or The reds.
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: Here it is likely to be in The mets at this,
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: point but they still have to keep. Winning they are
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: traveling down To miami from The, cubs, though and they're
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: coming off a big series against The. Cubs so it's
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: not really a great spot for either team in my.
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: Opinion SO i worry about both teams really as far
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: as trying to wanted to back one team or the.
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: Other The mets used four relief pitchers. Yesterday miami also used.
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: Four The mets two have the better of the two.
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: Bullpens miami is really not very. Good mets have the
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: better offense as. Well starting pitching a little bit difficult
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: to figure out. Here The mets Have Brandon sprout, pitching
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: who IS i believe this is his rookie, season and,
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: yeah he's only pitched this. Season he's made three. Starts
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: he has a three point nine to FOUR era and
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: one point one to NINE, wit which is pretty. Good
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: when he came, IN i was worried, though because his
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: minor league numbers were pretty. Lousy So i'm, LIKE i
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: don't know what we're gonna get out of this, guy
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: even though he's fairly highly considered. Prospect but he's been.
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: Okay he has a fifteen to six strike out walk,
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: ratio which it's not, great but it's not. Awful had
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: two six inning performances to, start giving up three earned
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: runs At, cincinnati did walk too many guys four walks,
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: there but did pretty well, there and then he had
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: a six inning shutout Against, texas which was obviously, solid
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: even Though texas offense isn't. Good but he had a
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: bad start last time out Against, washington so kind of
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: regressed a little bit there with four earned runs a
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: lot of four innings at home to a fairly Weak washington.
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: Offense so five to two strike out walk ratio is
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: still all, right but he didn't do well in that.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: Start maybe you could argue it was a bit of an.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: Outlier he is still a decent young. Prospect it looks
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: like as far as what he's done so, far he's
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: Facing miami, here who isn't really that powerful of an,
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: offense and they've never seen him. Before of, course so,
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: again young pitcher might have a little bit of an
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: edge here against an offense that hasn't seen him. Before
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: SO i don't Really I'M i probably do lean to
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: The mets in this game BECAUSE i think they at
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: least have the hitting, edge bullpen, edge the motivation, edge
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: and debatably they have a starting pitching edge. Here but
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: sprote is gonna have to go up Against sandy Al
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: contra for The, marlins who is another one of those
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: guys who Had Tommy john surgery and hasn't been the same.
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: Since but he has pitched better over the last like two.
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: Months his numbers don't look that great on the, season
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: five point four to EIGHTY ra really not. Good one
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: point two eight whip is getting into more respectable, territory
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: though he's been better at home four point five to
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: three HOMEY, ra and again over the last couple of
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: months he's been a lot better three point six to
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: NINETY ra In august this month four point one two
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: with a twenty to three strikeout walk, ratio so that's.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: Solid so he is definitely pitching better right. Now is
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: command numbers are, better although he has allowed four home
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: runs this, month but two of them were At. Colorado,
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: it's you, know it's a home run friendly environment there
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: in the high. Elevation he's Faced philly In detroit this
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: month as, well so he's facing pretty Difficult he faced
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: a couple of difficult lineups and then a difficult environment With,
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: colorado so he's still pitching pretty. Well he's allowed three
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: or fewer earned runs and all but one start in
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: his last six or actually last, seven ALTHOUGH i know
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: two of those he allowed four and runs and three
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: on runs the two of us starts this, month so
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: he's a little bit worse this month than he was
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: prior than he was the month, prior going up against
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: The mets difficult lineup to. Face he actually does have
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: pretty decent numbers against The mets in two hundred and
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: twenty four at, bats so they are very familiar with.
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: Him forty one to twenty strike out walk ratio is not.
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: Good that's way too many, walks but two thirty seven
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: batting average allowed to seven to twenty three, ops so
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: they haven't really hit him, well so he might do
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: okay as. WELL i would probably slightly lean to The,
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: mets just given the situation they're down for just one
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: thirty eight to minus one thirty. Three you're not really
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: gonna get a great price on The, mets necessarily because
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: still a team that carries a lot of weight behind their,
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: name but was sprout on the. Mound maybe you're getting
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a better price than you would
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: be if one of their better pitchers is on the.
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: Mound seventy eight percent of tickets ninety four percent of
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: cash on The mets still think that would be the
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: WAY i would lean in the. GAME i think the
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup is up in the air kind, of
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: and then The mets have the advantages elsewhere, here Including.
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: MOTIVATIONALLY i do think potentially an under as well in this.
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: Game probably would only go first five innings, though BECAUSE
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: i don't Love miami's bullpen at. All eighty four percent of,
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: tickets sixty three percent of cash on the over so
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: the money kind of. Fading the over there total has
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: gone up a little bit, though it's up from eight
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: to almost basically eight and a half. Here BUT i
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: think first five inning under maybe a. Look BUT i
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: think think the stronger way to play that game is
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: The mets money. Line but we will see what. Happens,
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: obviously AS i usually, Say texas At, Cleveland texas is
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: out of. It but are they gonna show up motivated
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: to try to Spoil cleveland's? SEASON i don't. Know. Man
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: cleveland is tied With detroit. Again After detroit did beat them,
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: Yesterday cleveland won the. Series that was a huge series For.
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: Cleveland so is that gonna hang them over a little
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: bit into this. GAME i don't, know, man Because cleveland
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: is still trying to make the playoffs and win the. Division,
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: potentially they're leading the division right now just by the
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: tiebreaker which they finished off in that. Series but we'll
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: be able to get back up after yesterday's lost and Face.
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: Texas we'll. SEE i, mean obviously they're gonna they gotta
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: be motivated here because, again the season is basically on
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: the line. Here it's just still ridiculous That cleveland is
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: in a spot that they're. IN i think they maybe
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: just finally Barely actually, no because they lost. YESTERDAY i
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: think they still have a negative run differential on the
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: season and they have the second worst offense In Major
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: League baseball based on. Ops it's just ridiculous that this is.
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: Happening their pitching has been lights out over the last
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: month or, two which is just kind of crazy to think.
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: About because they sold off some of their guys at
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: the trade Deadline, texas we know they're not going. Anywhere
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: they fell apart at the worst possible, time maybe they'll
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: show up, here you. Know just they're playing a final
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: series against a team that might make the, playoffs so
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: maybe that'll motivate them a little. Bit they probably want
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: to at least have a winning season and not fall
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: below five. Hundred that could be a little bit of
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: a mental motivator as. Well they're one game above five hundred.
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: Here they did lose. Yesterday they haven't been playing good,
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: Baseball they've lost nine in their last ten. Games but
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: they didn't get shut out Yesterday, minnesota which is pretty.
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: Embarrassing they get to go out on the, road and
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: going out on the road sometimes is better for your.
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: Focus when you're not playing well at, home you just
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: forget about it going the road go focus on. Baseball
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: cleveland is just staying at home, though So cleveland isn't
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: having to travel. Here both of these teams have good.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: Bullpends cleveland did use four relief pitchers, Yesterday texas used,
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: three BUT i still think both bullpens are fairly trustworthy.
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: Here and then the starting pitching matchup is interesting between
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: two pretty young pitchers who definitely have. Potential Jack lighter
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: is pitching for The rangers three point nine TWO era
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: one point three to one whip is way too. High though,
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: overall he's not allowing a lot of, runs but he
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: does put too many guys on. Base he isn't quite
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: as good on the road three point four excuse a
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: four point four to one ROAD. Era not as good this,
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: month he's been, okay four point SEVENTY ra twenty to
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: seven strike at walk, Race you're kind of. MEDIOCRE i
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: would say he was better last, month although he had
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: too many. Walks the walks just continue to kind of
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: be a little bit of an, issue but he kind
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: of keeps his team in the. Games like he's allowed
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: at least four or fewer in runs and every start
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: going all the way back Into, june he's only allowed
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: four once in in that span and his last outing Against,
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: miami so he is still not allowing a ton of
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: runs going up against Uh cleveland here Week cleveland, offense of, Course,
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: uh he's done well against, them and not a whole
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: not a big sample size twenty four at, bats but
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: he has an eight zero strikeout walk ratio against. Something
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: we have one extra base, hit which is a double
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: from Bow. Naylor one twenty five batting average, allowed two
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: ninety two, ops so they have some really weak offensive
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: numbers Against Jack. Lighter both these offenses are, weak by the.
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: Way texas is actually the slightly better of the two,
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: offenses which is. Ridiculous and then the, Bullpen cleveland has
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: a better, bullpen but it's not that much of an,
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: edge so slightly better bullpen For. Cleveland so pretty. Interesting
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: and we have two good pitching teams here and two
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: bad hitting. Teams Slay, chacone he's pitching For. Cleveland he's been.
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: Alright this is his first season With. Cleveland four point
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: one FIVE, era one point one to eight. Whip he's
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: doing worse at home, though so both starting pitchers actually
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: in the bad end of their home road splits. Here
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: he's got a four point five to two HOMEY. Ra
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: he's been good this month three point one TWO, era
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: twenty three to five strike out walk. Ratio did have
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: two good home starts this month Against Kansas city in
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: The White sox And cleveland isn't a good offense, either
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: so excuse, me not Cleveand, texas excuse, me is not
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: a good offense. Either he did just Face texas a
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: little while. Ago though he did well last month At
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: texas On august twenty, second six innings tour and runs
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: allowed in that. One Jack lighter did he pitch in
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: that series as? Well let me just say he might.
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: Have he. Did he went seven shutout innings in that
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: series Against cleveland with ten strikeouts two hits. Allowed So
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: Jack lighter absolutely Dominated cleveland's offense in that one chacone Against,
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: texas thirty two at, bats seven to, one strike, out
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: walk ratio two fifty, AVERAGE a lot of those somewhat
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: high eight sixty six o bs because he has a
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: lot of three home runs to. Them To, garcia he
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: Got schioca And, Tayez but maybe that's kind of a
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: more fluky stat the home. Runs SO i still think
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: the way to look at this game is the. UNDER i,
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: MEAN i think you have two pretty talented young pitchers.
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: HERE i know the offense has just saw both of these.
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: Pictures that's a little bit of a concern if you
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: go under. Here but the money is coming in on the.
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: Under the totals dropped a decent amount down from eight
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: to seven and a half. Here you got to get
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: the under seven and a half if you like the under,
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: here and you have to pay a little bit of
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: juice for it now, Too so the line is moving on.
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: This seventy three percent tickets on the, over fifty two
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the. Under, yeah under would
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: be the WAY i would play this game IF i
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: was going to play, It and, yeah you got to
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: get the under seven and a. Half seven is the
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: key number in. BASEBALL i, MEAN i GUESS i wouldn't
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: totally be opposed to playing the under seven as. Well
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: definitely not lower than, that AS i never really do.
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: That seven is the key number in baseball breaks the
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: three three t. High so that's my opinion on that.
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: Game as far as the, Side cleveland down for minus
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: one fifty five to minus one forty seven on the money,
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: line ninety percent of, tickets ninety seven percent of cash on,
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: them so the cash percentages on them a little, bit
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: but they are very public and the line is kind
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: moved against. Them so maybe the professional betters are putting
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: more weight Into lighter THAN JACONI i, MEAN i probably
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: would agree with that That lighter is probably the more
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: talented of the two. Pitchers he's just gotta stop, walking.
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: Guys but, STILL i think under is probably the way
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: to look in that game twenty, Eleven Saint Louis cardinals
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: were ten and a half games back of the final.
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: Wildcard that's crazy with how many games to go and
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: then what do they wind up? Doing so they made the.
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: PLAYOFFS i forget which year that. WAS i know The
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: Red sox beat The cardinals in The World series in twenty.
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: THIRTEEN i don't remember who won in Twenty did The
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: cardinals win in twenty? ELEVEN i don't remember at, all,
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: Man it's all blur at this. Point it all kind
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: of blurs. TOGETHER i do not, remember all, right we
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: Have pittsburgh At atlanta then won The World. Series, YEAH
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: i mean baseball is, crazy, Man baseball and hockey because
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: there's such close, games you know WHAT i. Mean it's
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: this money line sport where you never really get like
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: giant favor for it's in each. Game so like tons
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: of chaos can happen in the playoffs IN nhl IN,
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: mlb so you can just have any like pretty much
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: any team can get far in the. Playoffs beat The
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: Rangers David freeze of the walk. OFF i barely remember
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: that if at. All, Uh it's, yeah that one's kind
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: of a slip in my. Mind pittsburgh Got. ATLANTA i,
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: mean these two teams are both playing out the. Stretch,
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: Obviously atlanta didn't play yesterday and they're staying at, Home
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: So atlanta does have a little bit of an edge
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: there where they're rested staying at. Home but they lost
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: a long wind, Streak SO i talk about. This they
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: had how many games in a row they? WANT i
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: think theyd won ten eleven games in a, row whatever this,
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: was and they finally. Lost that's not a good spot,
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: Really so even though they do have a rest, advantage
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: there are just too many conflicting factors in this, game,
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: Man because NORMALLY i like to look to play on
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: the team that was. Rested but when you lose like
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: a ten game win streak like that or, whatever that
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: can tend to hang you over into the next, game,
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: man because you're just not used to. Losing so even
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: THOUGH i know that's weird to say about a losing
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: team Like, atlanta but when you haven't lost in so,
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: long with your mindset just like isn't quite ready for.
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: It so that kind of worries me About. Atlanta pittsburgh
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: did play yesterday and they're traveling From cincinnati To, atlanta
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: and they lost a win streak as. Well they've won
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: four games in a row and they lost Yesterday, cincinnati
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: So pittsburgh not exactly in a great spot. Either they
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: had to use some of their bullpen, yesterday they only
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: used two. Guys, though as far as the bullpens, Themselves
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: pittsburgh's bullpen is actually up to thirteenth In Bullpenny. Ras
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: they actually have the better. Bullpen atlanta down at. Nineteenth
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: the fairly significant difference between their Two Bullpenny, rays So
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: pittsburgh actually has the better. Bullpen atlanta has the better.
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: Offense pittsburgh worst offense in all of. Baseball Mitch, keller
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: it's bet you For. Pittsburgh he's had an alright season
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: four point two to TWO, era one point two to FOUR.
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: Whip he's actually better on the road four point zero
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: nine ROAD, era which is where he is here this,
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: month four point three TWO. Era but he does have
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: a twelve to two strike out walk, ratio so he's
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: not walking a lot of. Guys so he's in okay
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: form right. Now he's pitching. Alright he's going to The
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: braves here against The, braves his numbers are mediocre and
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: seventy eight at bats seventeen to five strike a walk
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: ratio is, fine two sixty nine batting average allowed seven
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: thirty six ops allowed all three home runs that The
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: braves have against him from A kunya, though so if
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: he can pitch around, him it gets a little bit
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: easier for. Him Although olsen is five for ten off,
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: him so he does hit him pretty, well And harris
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: is three for. Ten but, Yeah, keller he does okay
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: against The braves in. General he's going up Against Joey,
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: wentz our favorite guy, here WHO i find to be very.
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: UNPREDICTABLE i, mean his numbers are not that. Good five
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: point four to SIXTY ra one point five to. Whip
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: that is. Bad you can't put one and a half
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: guys on basin in he can get away with. It,
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: Man he's been bad at home eight point h three
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: E ra at home this. Year he's been on multiple different,
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: teams though he was On, Pittsburgh minnesota and at Land.
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: ON i believe Since pittsburgh got rid of, HIM i
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: don't know if he's even Faced pittsburgh since. Then let me, see, Yep,
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: no he is not so really. Weird this is gonna
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: be the first time he faces his former, Team. Pittsburgh
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: So pittsburgh traded him. Away so that is an extra
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: motivator for a pitcher when they face the team that
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: let him, go you, know because it's, like, Oh i'm
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: not good enough for. You, Well i'm gonna pitch well
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: to prove you. Wrong this, month he has a pretty
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: solid twenty two to five strike a walk, radio yet
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: HIS era is awful eight point two to, Two SO
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: i can't really figure it. Out. Man his strekeout walk
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: ratio was bad last month to eighteen to ten with
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: a four point seven to THREE era last. Month he's
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: not pitching very. Well. Man it's JUST i don't. Know
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: it seems like every TIME i try to fade, him
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: though he actually pitches better than you would. Think numbers
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: Against pittsburgh they have faced him before because he's been.
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: Around not a huge sample size sixteen five zero strike a,
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: walker but they do with three twelve average nine thirty
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: eight ops against. Them so, AGAIN i still don't know
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: IF i Trust wentz in this. One. Man the money
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: seems to be coming in On atlanta. Anyway. Though the
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: rough round is one forty one fifty seven eighty eight
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets ninety six percent of cash on. Them
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: they are very. Public pittsburgh not is good on the
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: road money coming In. ATLANTA i, mean if you really
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: want to Play, atlanta you probably have to go on
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: a run line with. It AND i kind of worry about. That,
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: YEAH i really don't want to touch this Game wentz,
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: again he does have that added edgeries pitching against the
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: team that got rid of him earlier this season for
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: the first, time so that is an extra. Motivator BUT
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: i worry about his matchup numbers against. HIM i just
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: he just doesn't have good, numbers SO i don't find
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: it to be very. Trustworthy Red's. Milwaukee i'm gonna give
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: out a play on that one at the. End houston At.
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: Anaheim anaheim playing out the stretch, here they're staying at.
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: HOME i believe they played, yesterday, right let me, SEE
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: i think both teams played. Yesterday anheim us a few
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers. Yesterday houston also used, three but used them
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: to a bit less of a. Degree houston has the
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: better bullpen out of the. Two anaheim's bullpen really stinks
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: as far as the offense is. Concerned houston fifteenth in.
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: Ops anaheim has actually fallen down into the bottom third
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: at twenty, seconds So houston has the better offense as.
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: Well In, houston we know they got to be motivated
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: here because they're on the version of not making the.
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: Playoffs they're in the wildcard battle and they cannot win
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: their division. Anymore after they were leading the division basically all.
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: Year seattle just took them out and swept. Them And
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: houston finally broke a five game lost streak last time
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: out beating The, a's so they're staying on The Pacific
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: coast at least going down From sacramento To anaheim, here
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: but they at least broke a lost, streak so that'll
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: help break that losing momentum For houston. Here they've got
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: to have some motivating motivation here For houston because again
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: they're trying to make the playoffs. Still George costanza is
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: back on the mound for The astros. Here Jason alexander
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: not very good numbers this year four point eight THREE,
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: era one point three to NINE. Whip some of that
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: is with The a's though in that very hitter friendly.
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: Ballpark he is actually better on the road three point
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: one to NINE. Roadira he was pitching pretty well With.
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: HOUSTON i think he was pitching above his pay. Grade
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: he'd allowed three or four earned runs in every outing
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: except one against his former team in The, a's which
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: is the second time in almost in a row that
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: he had to face The a's up until his last,
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: out when he had like his worst outing ever Against
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: seattle at. Home we gave up seven earned runs and
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: one to a third and he's he got absolutely bombed By.
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: Seattle but he is stepping down in class now to
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: face An anaheim offense that is not as good As.
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: Seattle's but that really really kind of wrecked what he was. Doing,
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: man And houston had actually won a bunch of starts
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: in a. Row they'd won nine starts in a row
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: of his or something like, That so he was pitching
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: well For. Houston now the question is is he in
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: bad form now or will he bounce Back? Anaheim only
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: his one hitter has ever seen it, Before Chris taylor
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: is one for three with a strikeout against. HIM i
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: lean more Towards alexander bouncing back at least a little.
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: BIT i, mean he can't possibly be as bad as
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: he was in his last, outing SO i think he
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: will bounce back a little bit and pitch a little bit.
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: Better here he is going up Against Kyle, hendrix who
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: has had a mediocre. Season he's a, veteran he's been around.
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: Forever four point seven to NINETY, ra one point two
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: EIGHT whip for The. Angels he is better at home
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: four point three to THREE. Era at, home he actually
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: has two seven inning shutouts in his last three. Outings
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: problem is the others started between the. Two he got
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: wrecked By seattle as. Well At, seattle which is even
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: worse because that's a pitcher friendly BOMBER i gave him
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: nine or runs in that outing in three and a.
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: Third that was, bad but he still does have a
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: four point two to FOUR era this month because his
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: other three starts were. Good his one home start was
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: one of those seven inning shutouts Against minnesota seventeen to
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: six strike a walk. Ratio last time out Against houston
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: to End, august he pitched well At, houston went six,
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: innings give him only one on run two strikeouts in
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: that outlet is not very, good but he did okay,
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: there better than okay Against. Houston though, overall he does
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: not have good. Numbers ninety eight at bats twelve to
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: six strikeout walk ratio three to zero, six batting average
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: allowed eight seventy three. Ops So hendrix doesn't actually do
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: that well Against, houston even though he did last time.
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: Out it doesn't Mean houston just saw. Him but with
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: a veteran Like, HENDRIX i don't know that really matters
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: because they have seen a lot of him anyway in the.
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: Past Jason, alexander by the, way did not pitch Against
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: anaheim in that, series so he has not faced them
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: since being Acquired. Button he hasn't faced them this year,
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: actually so that's maybe a little bit of an extra
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: unfamiliarity edge To alexander in this. One houston is extremely
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: public though they're down from minus one forty to minus
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: one thirty eighty nine percent of tickets and. Cash the
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: pressure is On. Houston you're asking him to lay a
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: price on the road. HERE a little bit difficult to ask,
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: that especially with a pretty unproven pitcher on the mound.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: Here SO i do worry about that a. BIT i
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: don't want to Back hendrix And anaheim, either Though. NORDO
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: i want to Back anaheim's, bullpen which is really. Bad
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: so this is a stay. Away but, YEAH i Mean
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: houston's very public and the money is coming in against,
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: them so that would worry me as far as trying
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: to Back. Houston arizona At San. Diego San diego pretty
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: much locked into their spot at this. POINT i think
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: The dodgers clinched their. Division, actually so even Though dodgers
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: of three games ahead Of San, DIEGO i think they
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: have the. Tiebreaker so The dodgers have clinched THE. Nls
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: San diego was virtually locked into the five. SEEDS i
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: don't know that they really have a ton to play for.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: Here arizona has more to play for is they're still.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: Fighting they're almost out of the. Playoffs they're one game
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: about five, hundred which is a little bit of a
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: motivator as. Well but they just lost to The. Dodgers
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: but they did get shut out, yesterday so it might
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: be good for them just get out of, there go
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: on the, road start a road, trip which is what
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: they're doing. Here they're. Good they gotta have motivation, here
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: even though they're coming up a big. Series this is
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: another big, series divisional, series and still they're potentially trying
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: to get the last wildcard spot, still even though they
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: traded players away at the trade, Deadline arizona would probably
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: still like to do, it so they're still gonna show
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: up with some motivation. Here arizona has the significantly better
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: offense Over San, diego But San diego has the better.
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: Bullpen San, DIEGO i, believe didn't even play. Yesterday arizona,
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: did and they've used a lot of their bullpen, recently
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: So arizona has a pretty big bullpend disadvantage coming into this.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: One San diego is staying at home after Facing. Milwaukee
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: they lost a four game win, streak so they're coming
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: off of a pretty big series as well Against. Milwaukee
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: but they do have, rest SO i don't really want
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: to Fade San, diego AND i Think arizona's got to
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: have the motivational edge. Here San diego better bullpen and
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: rested kind of worries me a little. Bit Zach gallon
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: is pitching For. Arizona he started pitching better. Again he's
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: been decent from them in the, past had kind of
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: a rough. Season four point seven e ra one point
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: two to four whip is, better though it's a bit more.
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: Respectable he is a little bit worse on the road
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: four point eight five run the. Road he was better
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: on the road up until, recently so he's done worse
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: on the road, recently but he has been decent over
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: the past two. Months this month three point one SIXTY
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: ra and twenty three to seven strike a walk. Ratios
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: he's been pretty, solid but he's only faced one good Offense,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: philly but he did do well in that start his
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: last time out nine strikeouts and seven, innings three and runs,
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: allowed four, hits two. Walks that was pretty solid Against San.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: Diego his numbers are not terrific, though in one hundred
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: and sixty two at bats they've seen a lot of.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: Him thirty seven, strikeouts fifteen, walks not a great, ratio
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: two seventy two batting average, allowed seven ninety six ohps,
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: Allowed So gallan hasn't exactly done great against, them even
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: though this is gonna be a pitcher friendly park, HERE
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: i worry about him a little. Bit San diego's going with,
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: You darvish and this one who doesn't have a GOOD
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: era this year five point five to, one though it's
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: a fairly small sample size because he came back from
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: injury pretty late in the, season but his whip is
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: pretty good one point one point, five which is interesting
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: Because darvish usually his problem is that he walks too many.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: Guys like the Way darvish, pitches he just has like
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: a lot of different, pitches a lot of speed changing
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: stuff that he throws at. You he's been better at
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: home though FOR era at home much picture from the
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: environment at home this month five point one TWO. Era
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: but his command numbers have been excellent twenty two to
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: two strike out walk ratio on no walks in his
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: last three Outings San, diego winning all three of those.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: Games SO i don't know how he's allowing this many.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: Runs he's allowed a little bit, TOO i mean a
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: few too many. HITS i mean that's really, it more
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: hits than innings. Pitch but usually again his control is
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: usually kind of the. Problem his control has been, Better
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: So darvish is kind of like the Bizarro darvish right.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: Now up Against arizona's numbers aren't, great though they've seen
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: a lot of. Them one hundred and thirty at, bats
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: forty one to seventeen to strike a walk, race, uh you,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: know kind of mediocre, there two sixty two batting average,
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: allowed eight fifty five ops, Allowed so he hasn't done
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: that great Against arizona, Either so this game a little
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: bit difficult to figure. Out San diego is down for
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: minus one forty five to minus one thirty five on
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: the money, line seventy two percent, tickets seventy seven percent
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: of the cash on, Them so the money is coming
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: in on The San diego side a little. Bit it
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: looks like based on the cash, percentage but the money
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: line has dropped on them, too and they're. Publics that
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: kind of concerns. ME i don't know if it means
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: we have conflicting opinions on this game or, what but
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: definitely conflicting market. Indicators and the total drop from eight
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: to seven and a. Half BUT i actually think that
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: total is too. LOW i would actually lean to an
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: over in this. GAME i Know San diego's bullpen is,
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: good but you Have arizona's bullpen isn't. GOOD i don't
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: think either starting pitcher matches up particularly well, here SO
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: i think an over might be worth a look. Here
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: eighty eight percent of, tickets ninety nine percent of the
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: cash on the over total it's seven and a. HALF
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: i know it's over a key number seven and a,
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: half but the total does seem pretty low to me
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: for that Game dodgers At. Seattle seattle doesn't actually have
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: a whole lot to play for it this one because
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: they're pretty much locked into Their, well they've won the,
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: division SO i mean as far as that they've, clinched
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: which might be a spot where maybe they just don't
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: pay as much attention because they clinch their. Division THEY
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: i think they actually are, well they're not totally locked
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: into their. Spot they could actually get the one, seed
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: so they do still have a little bit of motivation
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: because they're actually only one game behind Both toronto and The,
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: yankees and one of those teams is going to be
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: the overall one seed in THE, al WHICH i really
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: hope it's not The yankees BECAUSE i don't want them
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: to have home advantage, here So seattle could potentially do.
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: That they're facing The, dodgers SO i, said also clinch their, Division,
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: dodgers they're in a spot where they're going to be less.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: MOTIVATED i think, though because The dodgers cannot improve their.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: STANDING i don't Think philadelphia And milwaukee are. Both milwaukee's
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: definitely too far ahead of. Them, PHILADELPHIA i think it
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: is too far ahead of them as. Well, yeah four games,
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: ahead so or three and a, Half so The, dodgers
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: they actually literally have nothing to play. For The dodgers
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: are locked into the three seed in The National, league
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: so The dodgers really have nothing to play for. Here
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: as far as the, Bullpens seattle has the better, bullpen
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: but The dodgers only use three relief. Pitchers yes, Today
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: seattle used a. Lot they used five relief, pitchers a
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: lot of relief usage For seattle. Yesterday seattle is staying
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: at home, though and they're on a win. Streak they
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: won a bunch of games in a, row seven games
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: in a, row so not really necessarily a TRAIN i
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: want to jump in front. Of dodgers won two games
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: in a Row. Arizona now they have to fly up To.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: Seattle so, MOTIVATION i Think seattle does have an advantage
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: here with the. MOTIVATION i THINK i do prefer the
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: starting pitcher for The dodgers a little bit. More The
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: dodgers have the better, offense so though both offenses are pretty, Good,
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: seattle LIKE i, said has the better bull but they're
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: not very arrested right. Now Emmett sheen is pitching for The.
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: Dodgers he's been good man he's starting to pitch quite,
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: well starting to live up to his. POTENTIAL i think
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: he's good two point eight SIX, era point nine to seven.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: Whip he isn't as good on the road four point FOUR,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: era but this is a pitcher friendly park. Here he's
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: been really good this month with the one point four
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: to EIGHTY ra and thirty two to six strike a
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: walk ratio a lot of. Strikeouts he's been virtually unhittable
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: to allowing only ten hits in twenty four and a
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: thirty innings. Pitch he's been really good this, month alying
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: two or four earned runs and five straight, outings and
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: he has those five outings are bookended by two seven
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: innings shutout, performances allowing three combined hits with a twenty
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: to one strike a walk ratio in those two. Starts so,
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: YEAH i mean he's doing well right. Now he is.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: Solid seattle has four hitters who face him the front
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: of their zero for four with three strikeouts and no
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: walks off. Him So seattle not very familiar with, him
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: and when they have seen, him he's pretty much lit them.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: Up so she looks like good in this. Game. Man
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: SO i worry because The dodgers don't have motivation really
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: in this, game But shean might come out and pitch with.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: Motivation so that's the thing you have to kind of.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: Gauge there's team motivation and then there's the motivation of
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: the starting pitcher, too which could be different from the team's.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: Motivation George kirby is pitching For. Seattle he's been decent
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: this season four point two to FOUR, era one point
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: two to ONE. Whip he is much better at home
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: three point three six cra pretty much Every seattle pitcher.
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: Is AS i always point, out he hasn't been very
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: good this month as far as HIS era being five
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: point eight, nine but that was because he got lit
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: up At Tampa. Bay he has these starts where he
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: just is terrible sometimes usually on the, road and that
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: was a hitter from the environment. There but he does
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: still have a twenty four to two strikeout walk race
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: here this, month so he is pitching well this month.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: Anyway and he's allowed three or four earned runs in
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: all but that one start Against Tampa bay going back six,
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: starts so basically that kind of is like an outlier
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: as far as how he's pitching right. Now he is
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: pitching better right, now but he is going up against
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: a hard Hitting dodger. Team thirty nine at bats against,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: Them he's not done well against, them five five strike
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio that's pretty ugly, too eighty two batting average,
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: allowed eight seventy six. Ops So kirby has not done
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: well AGAINST la in the, past so that doesn't look
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: very good to. Me the money is coming in pretty
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: strongly on The dodgers. Side we Got seattle up from
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: minus went twenty five to minus went twenty. Seven they're
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: public sixty percent of tickets on them public fading The.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: Dodgers when do you ever see? That when do you
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: ever get The dodgers as an? Underdog? Man? Uh sixty
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: three percent of the cash coming in IN. La SO
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: i think maybe a lot of it is just the,
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: Price like you're getting a really Good dodger team with
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: a really good starting pitcher as an. UNDERDOG i, mean
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: that is pretty crazy to think. About maybe if you
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: want The, dodgers you could also go first five, innings
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: just so you don't have to deal with The dodgers,
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: bullpen which isn't that, good Although seattle's bullpen is a
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: bit more, used so it's to. YOU i MEAN i
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: would lean that. Way as far as the matchup is,
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: CONCERNED i would agree with The, dodgers BUT i worry
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: about the. Motivation, man that's the only. Problem SO i
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: will not recommend it as a. Play but that would
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: be the lean. There the total is also low at,
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: seven we have. Eighty it's gone up a little bit
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: to seven juice to the over eighty. Percent tickets on
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: the over eighty six percent of the cash on the,
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: over so money coming in on the over him AND
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: i could definitely see some arguments for this being an
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: under early in the. GAME i don't want to deal
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: with the, bullpens but first five under maybe worth a.
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: Look BUT i worry About kirby. TOO i Think shean
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: is the more trustworthy of the two in this, matchup
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: and if he comes out of, pitches, well that will
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: help The dodgers. Here. Man so that is The that
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: is the deal. There that's the, Deal, JACK i don't
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: want to. Sell i'm intenttionally sounded Like Joe. Biden Kansas, City, Sleepy,
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: Joe Kansas. City at The a's. Here The a's finishing
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: out this, season staying at home. Here they're coming to
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: have a pretty big series Against, houston though to The,
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: A'S i don't know how motivated they'll be to face
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: The royals at the very end of the. Season The
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: royals got eliminated as, well so they might not have
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: a ton of motivation. Either they're on The pacific coast
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: already traveling From anaheim up to The a's WHERE i
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: think the opposite is the case For, houston right Because
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: houston was just at The a's and they're going down To,
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: anaheim so the teams are. Crisscrossing Kansas city And houston
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: are So Kansas city going up to The a's it's
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: probably gonna be a little bit of a shocking change
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: For Kansas. CITY i don't know if they've played at
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: THE A stadium this, year But Kansas city plays in
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: a pitcher friendly, park and THIS A stadium is Terrible
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: TRIPLE a, team very hitter. Friendly difficult to handicap this
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: because we don't know who The a's are gonna have
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: as a starting. Pitcher they're still. Undecided a's are sitting
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: in a very small favorite right, now maybe not. Justifiable
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: The a's definitely have the better, offense there's no question about,
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: that But The a's also have the way worse bullpen
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: and just way worse pitching in. General a has used
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: three relief pitchers Yesterday Soda Kansas, city But Kansas city
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: used a lot less of. Theirs Kansas, city of, course
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: has their talented young rookie on The, Mount Noah. Cameron
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: the only Issue i've said with him is is he
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: wearing out? Yet we don't really know because we don't
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: know what his stamina is really even like. Yet but
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: he's had a really good season two point NINETY r
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: one point oh eight. WHIP i don't know how he'll
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: adapt to pitching at this terrible, stadium though he's been
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: slightly better on the road generally two point eight six
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: the area, there and he's been good. Overall he's allowed
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: three or four earned runs and all four starts this.
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: Month this team has won three of the four two
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: point eight ONE era this, month including two starts in
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: a row Against philly And. TORONTO i mean those were
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: difficult lineups to face that he did well against both of.
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: Them twenty five to eight strike a walk ers here this,
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: month too many, walks but five of them came Against,
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: Anaheims so he might pitch better in this. One but
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: you gotta worry about like is he gonna pitch well
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: at The a's statum because he is not pitched in this.
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: Stadium but he did shut them out for five innings
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: In Kansas city, earlier so something to consider. There but
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: that doesn't Mean Kansas. City that does mean The a's
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: have seen him. Now so he did have a little
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: bit of an extra edge the first time facing them
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: because the hitters had to kind of figure him. Out
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: but they had twelve at bats against the four, strikeouts one,
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: walk two fifty batting average seven to twenty four oh,
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: ps so he did pretty well against. Them he's good
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: enough that he might do well. Again so even with
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: The a's pitching pitcher being, UNDECIGNED i, mean if you
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: want to go with just the starting pitching or just
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: the pitching, matchup Maybe Kansas city is worth a look
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: in that. Game they do have a bulpen edge as,
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: well BUT i would hesitate to do it just you
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: don't know what the motivation is going to be. LIKE i,
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: mean both these teams are out of And Kansas city
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: being recently, eliminated you don't know what their motivation is
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: going to. Be like if it could be kind of
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: like a dream crusher type of. Scenario and Then colorado
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: At San. Francisco Sar francisco got officially eliminated as, well
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: SO i don't know what their mindset is going to.
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: Be they are staying at. Home they had yesterday off as,
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: well So sarrancisco is rested and they have the better.
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: Rolepen San francisco one of the better bullpens in all of.
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: Baseball colorado's bullpen. Stinks both these offenses are. BAD i
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: don't even know which of these offenses is worse at this,
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: Point Probably colorado though, yeah, uh excuse that was bullpen.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: Area colorado's second. Worst colorado is twenty seventh in overall,
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: ops San francisco twenty, seconds So San francisco only slightly better.
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: Offensively colorado's coming in From, seattle so they are staying
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: on The west. Coast BUT i don't, Know, man not
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: a lot of motivation either way. HERE i Think San
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: francisco has a, motivate has a matchup edge all throughout
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: this game. Though bullpen offense and starting. Pitching herman marquees
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: for The rockies six point four to NINE era one
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: point seven whip not. Good he's been worse on the road.
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: Too somehow he's better at course field six point nine
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: to SIX. Roadyra that's certainly not. Good he hasn't been
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: good recently, either eight point three EIGHTY ra this month
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: than nine to seven strikeout walk. Ratio colorado has lost
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: six starts in a row of HIS i believe he
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: was injured at one point and then came, back yet
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: like a month later Late, august still hasn't been good since.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: Then Against San, francisco even though they can't hit that,
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: well his numbers aren't good against them. Either in sixty
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: nine at, bats sixteen to four strikeout walk, ratio two
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: to ninety batting average, allowed nine to four oh. Ps
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: so the strike out walk ratio is, good but the
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: rest of those numbers are pretty. Lousy he's not. Good
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: he's going up Against trevor, McDonald WHO i don't know
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: if we know what he is. Yet he's a young
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: pitcher for The. GIANTS i believe he's a. Rookie. Well
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: he made one appearance last, year which was a bulpend,
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: appearance and he's only made two appearances this, year one.
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: Start but his numbers have been good so, far mostly
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: this year he doesn't have a three point three EIGHTY.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: Ra one point three eight whip is not that. GOOD
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: i mean it's a very small sample, size though a
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: little bit worse at home three point three EIGHTY. Ra
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: but wait a, minute what AM i looking at? Here oh,
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: no that's day and night, Excuse so that's a road
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: versus day and my. Apologies he's only made a road
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: appearances so, far so that's my. MISTAKE i got thrown
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: off by how they lay this. Out he hasn't pitched
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: at home, yet so they haven't separated the splits. There
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: but what's impressive about what he's done so far is
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: that his two appearances were At arizona in relief and
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: then at The, dodger so he had to face two
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: good lineups on the. Road didn't do that well Against
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: arizona was shake he gave him two earned runs and two.
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: Innings but he pitched pretty well against The dodgers last,
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: time about six, innings one earned, run, allowed three to
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: one strike a walk. Ratio maybe because he was unfamiliar to,
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: them but he's gonna be unfamiliar To colorado. Here colorado
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: is a big step down as far as the offense
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: that he's facing, here SO i expect that he will
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: pitch well here against a pretty Weak colorado, offense and
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: he's gonna have the edge of them not having seen him.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: Before but the money's coming in Against San. Francisco they're
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: just a really heavy, favorite up for minus two hundred
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: to minus two thirty, two ninety percent of, tickets eighty
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on, them so very very,
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: Public i'll be the money line did initially move up
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: On San. FRANCISCO i, MEAN i think they do have
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: the edge everywhere in this. Game so the only way
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: THAT i could see really playing this game is still
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: probably some way Playing San. FRANCISCO i, mean maybe you
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: could Go San francisco over their team total maybe the
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: better way to. Look BUT i do think McDonald should
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: do well as, well so it could still be A
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: San francisco run. Line the issue you get into is
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: just are they gonna score enough runs in this pitcher
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: friendly ballpark to overcome a minus one and a half run,
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: line and maybe without having to bat in the ninth inning,
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: Either it's a little bit a. Questionable, anna what's? Up
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: thanks for hanging. Out let's get to the best bets. Here.
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: Man see if we can get this get this thing.
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: DONE i, MEAN i KNOW i have to talk about football,
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: too but don't have two players in, football so in,
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: baseball these are both gonna be kind of. Boring we're
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: going with a couple of unders. Here we're gonna first
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: go With Tampa bay And toronto first five inning under
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: WHICH i saw out there at four or four and a.
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: Half but the way better prices on the four in my,
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: Opinion so you can get the four at even. Money,
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: uh you are, risking you, know the push of course
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: if it lands on. Four but that's What i'm gonna do.
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: HERE i actually like the starting pitching matchup. Here toronto
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: is staying at. HOME i, know coming off a win Against.
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: BOSTON i know they have to remain focused here because
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: they're trying to hang onto the division against The yankees
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: here and it's really really. Close Tampa bay probably will
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: be motivated just because they're facing divisional. Opponents they're Behind.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: Toronto you, know of Course Tampa bay has had kind
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: of a lost, season But tampa is at least better
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: than they, look AND i think they will show up
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: with motivation here as. Well so the side is a
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: little bit. Questionable to, me BUT i think the starting
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup actually lends itself to an under. HERE i
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: don't Love toronto's. Bullpen i''ve been up and down all.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: Season they use a lot of relief. Pitchers, yesterday seven
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: arms that they came out of the. BULLPEN i mean
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: some of them probably are usable again, today BUT i
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: don't want any part of that. Bullpen tampa's bullpen is
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: pretty well. Rested they Use shulten's for most of the time,
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: Yesterday So tampa's bullpen is the better of the two,
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: bullpens and as well, Rested toronto does have the better offense.
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: Here but again we're looking at the starting. Pitching Adrian
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: howser pitching For. Tampa they got him from The White
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: sox at the trade. Downline pretty good season for, him
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: even THOUGH i think he overperformed a little. Bit three
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: point one EIGHTY ra one point two to SEVEN whip not.
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: TERRIBLE i know he wasn't quite as good on the
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: road three point four to NINE. Roadra but this is
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: kind of about the matchup, though and he is pitching okay,
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: recently even though a four point four to FOUR era
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: this month doesn't look that. Good he's still allowed four
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: or fewer earned runs in eight straight, appearances a three
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: or fewer in his last three including it starts against
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: The cobs and The Red sox did Face seattle this month,
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: too so some pretty difficult. OFFENSES i Know toronto also,
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: is but he has a twenty one to five strike
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio this, month so his command is pretty
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: solid right. Now SO i think we could go with him.
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: Here and he's going up Against toronto and he's done
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: well against him in the. Past seventy four at bats
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: eight seven strike out walk ratio is definitely not, good
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: But toronto has not hit well against, him a two
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: fifty seven batting average and a pretty low six h five,
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: ohps So howser has done well against. Them and then
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: of course we Got Shane bieber on the mound For
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: toronto The. Beebes he's coming back from. Injury. MAN i
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: think he Had Tommy john. Surgery he was really good
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: For cleveland in the. PAST i think he might have
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: been a cy young winner in the past For, cleveland
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: but he's pretty much picked up where he left. Off
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: he's still good man three point five SEVEN era point
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: nine to six whip that should Help. Toronto as far
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: as what they're going to start doing in the, playoffs
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: he is a big piece to add with their starting.
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: Rotation Man, like he's basically their best starting, pitcher so
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: very good for them that they got him. Back he's
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: better at home three point one to eight homye RA
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: i really only had one bad outing At, cincinnati which
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: is a hitter friendly. Ballpark he wasn't even that, bad,
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: really he just gave up some untimely hits basically or
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: timely HITS i guess For. Cincinnati gave up five runs
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: and six innings in that, one but he only allowed
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: five hits and two walks six. Strikeouts it wasn't even
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: bad in that. One and other than, that he's allowed
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: three or fewer earned runs in all of his other.
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: Outings thirty four to five strikeout walk ratio this. Year
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: that's pretty. Excellent his command has been right on fewer
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: hits than, innings pitched hits aloud and then innings. PITCH
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: i should say he's still pitching, well, man SO i
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: expect him to do that again Here. Tampa only three
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: guys have faced him before and they're only three for
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: nineteen off him with no extra base, hits eight, strikeouts two.
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: Walks that's a one fifty eight average and three ninety six.
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: Ops Between diaz and the Two. LOWS i want to
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: call him The lowe, brothers even THOUGH i don't think they're,
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: related and they're not related to The Red sox low Either.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: Nathaniel SO i like both starting pitchers, here and, man,
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah bieber is the better of the two there are
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: you know some of, course there's an advantage for Or
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: tampa in the bullpend, though SO i think if you
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: do Like toronto, HERE i think you have to go
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: first five inning only With toronto in this. One if
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: you do want to go first five, innings it would
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: probably be a minus half run line would be the better.
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: Price toronto's a pretty heavy moneyline, favorite up for minus
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: one seventy eight to minus one seventy. Nine they have
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: the public ticket percentage on the eighty three eighty five
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: percent of the. Cash doesn't look that great For toronto.
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: There money coming in on the, under, though so the
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: market read is a lot easier to read on the. Under.
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: Here the totals already gone down from eight to seven
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: and a. Half still juice to the over, there but
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: again we're going with the first five innings. Instead hopefully
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: you can still find the under four out. THERE i
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: think you probably. Can, uh sixty three percent of tickets
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: on the, Over so the public's gonna see this and
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: think over with a team Like toronto, here, uh maybe
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: they kind of forget how Good bieber, is but ninety
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on the. Under so this
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: is a big pros Versus joe's type of discrepancy. Here
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: so we're gonna go with the pros in this one
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: that look like they're playing the, under and that is
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: what we're gonna. Do but we're gonna go first five
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: inning only to avoid The toronto, bullpen and we will
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: also go under In reds And brewers, here which this
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: is gonna be the type of gamer. AGAIN i think
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: the public sees this and, think, oh two good hitting,
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: teams which obviously is. True the teams are pretty good,
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: offensively maybe not as good as people. Think milwaukee's down
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: to eleventh offensively and Major League baseball on The reds
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: are somewhere in the middle of the pack, nineteenth so
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: the offense is not quite as good as maybe the
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: perception of. Them milwaukee isn't as good at home. Offensively
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: so some'th going to keep in mind Here milwaukee is
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: returning home from a road trip and as a day,
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: off AND i think that can cool off. Hitting. MAN
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: i talk about, this the return home from the road.
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: Trip it could be a distracted. Spot they're shifting time
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: zones here because they went To Saint louis And San
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: diego with a day. Off that can exacerbate. It, man
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: the hitters kind of cool, Off they can kind of
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: be affected by the distraction THAT i talk about when
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: the team returns home from a road, trip you got
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: to get back to home. Life could be a bit
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: of an. Distraction SO i don't think it's a good
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: spot For milwaukee here if you're looking at the. SIDE
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: i do Think cincinnati has a big motivational edge here,
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: Too SO i was first thinking MAYBE i want to
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: kind of lean Towards cincinnati as well here Because cincinnati
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: still is trying to get the last wildcard. Spot In
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: milwaukee is very close to having home field wrapped, up like,
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: basically they don't even need to win basically to wrap it,
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: up like if the opponents that are closest to, them
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: but basically it's Just. Philadelphia So, basically If philadelphia loses it,
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: All milwaukee WILL i, think seal it up if they haven't.
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: Already So milwaukee really doesn't have a whole lot left
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: to play for. Here they're pretty much locked in to
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: that one, seed AND i don't know even if between
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: one and, TWO i don't even know how much they
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: really care about that, Necessarily SO i think the spot
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: is a lot better For cincinnati, here except for the
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: fact That milwaukee is rested And cincinnati did play. Yesterday
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: they Beat, pittsburgh it was a pretty, easy serious femin
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: now they're going out on the road, motivationally the spot
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: is in favor Of, cincinnati but, AGAIN i don't love
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: to play teams that played yesterday against a team that
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: didn't play. Yesterday as far as the bullpens are, concerned,
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: Whoops cincinnati only used three relief, pitchers not a lot
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: of usage over the last couple of days really for,
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: Them SO i think we can go with this man
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: as far as the full game are okay here Where
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: milwaukee's just completely, arrested SO i think we can go
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: with that as. Well they're actually still there eighth in
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: bullpenny a, right so their bullpen's actually gotten better again,
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: recently even without their cloths are, There, miguil their bullpen
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: has actually been. Solid cincinnati's is, worse for, sure but
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: they're still middle of the pack a below FOUR, era
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: so that's still not bad at, Fifteenth SO i think
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: we can go with the under here starting. Pitching of,
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: course as a component to, THIS i think both these
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: pitchers might still be a little bit under the radar
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 1: because they're not big names or anything like. That Was
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: Zach lyttel pitching for The. Reds his one problem is
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: he gives a lot of home, runs but maybe that'll
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: be less of a concern At milwaukee because they're not
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: as hit or friendly a. Ballpark he's got a three
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: point eight SIX era one point one whip on the,
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: season pretty, good AND i think he's got to be
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: motivated coming into this one. MAN i, mean the season
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: is on the line. Here this is why he's. Here
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: they picked him up at the trade. Deadline he was
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: On Tampa. Bay Tampa bay's out of it, now so
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: he's got to be pumped to be on a team
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: that still is in it this. Late HIS era is
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: not is good on the road four point oh, one
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: but STILL i Mean he's been decent either way still
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: since being acquired By cincinnati im and he did well
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: in the month Of, august had a twenty one to
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: six strike a walk racier in a three point ninety R.
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: Ra he's allowed more than three on runs only three
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: times since they got him more than four only, once
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: which was this. Month it was Against toronto good. Offense
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: they hit him for four home runs, though so it
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: was a little bit of an outlier. THERE i, know
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: AS i, said he does allow too many home, runs
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: but that was at home at That cincinnati home run friendly,
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: ballpark SO i think he should do better than that outing.
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: Here toronto's a better offense Than milwaukee as. Well he
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: has a five point five to SEVENTY arra this, month
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: mostly because of that, start and then he wasn't terrific
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: At Saint louis give it fourign, runs which is a
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: little bit of a concern because their offense is. Bad
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: but he still has a seventeen to three strike a
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: walk ratier this, month so he's not putting a lot
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: of guys on. Base, again With, luttel the problem is
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: always the home. Runs he's allowed way too many home
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: runs thirty six this month or thirty six this month
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: of being saying thirty six this, year but he's still
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: allowed way fewer in the one hit per. Inning his
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio is still saw. It he doesn't strike
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: out a lot of, guys but he doesn't put a
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: lot of guys on, base SO i think he can
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: hold the offense down while he's out. There and his
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: numbers are good Against, milwaukee like surprisingly good and fifty
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: two at bats nine to four strike a walk ratio
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: is not, great but two thirty one batting average allowed
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: in five seventy four ohps and they don't have any
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: home runs off SO i know it might happen in this,
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: game but he does do well Against, milwaukee SO i
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: think we can go with him. Here Quinn priester is
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 1: pitching For. MILWAUKEE i, mean this is just. Ridiculous what's
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: been going on with? Him good numbers this year three
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: point two FIVE, era one point two to, one with
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: nearly has two losses on the. Season it's just so.
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: Ridiculous he's been a little bit worse at home three
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 1: point SEVENTY ra and. HOMES i know we're going against
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: the home road splits, here BUT i still like this
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: one priests allowed two or fewer on runs in six straight.
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: Outings and the ridiculous thing about him THAT i was
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: referring to Is milwaukee has won nineteen of his appearances
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: in a. ROW i believe seventeen or sixteen of them were,
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: starts and the other ones he was like a, follower
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: where he had basically his starter's workload for the most
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: part coming after an. Opener it's just. Insane The milwaukee
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: has won nineteen games in a row that he's appeared
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: and he's basically been getting a starter's workload that whole.
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: TIME i, MEAN i don't think we've ever seen anything
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: like this. BEFORE i, know the advanced analytics guys don't
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: like him because they think his numbers basically indicate that
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: he should be worse than. This and while that probably is,
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: true he can't really argue with what he's been, doing.
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: MAN i, mean three era this, month twenty one to
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: four strike a walk ratio is. Solid he may continue
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 1: pitching well, here, man and that's what we're banking on
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: here Against. Cincinnati he's got pretty good numbers and forty
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: nine career at, bats ten to six strike a walk
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: ratio is not good to the half The walks Or
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: Dala cruz so kind of just pitching around. Him and
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: he's a lot of one to eighty four batting average to,
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: them little bit high six SIXTY opi, yes but still
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: they have not hit him very well for. Contact so
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: we will go under in this game as. Well this
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: one a full. Game Under money is agreeing with this one.
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: Too the total flip from eight juicy over to eight
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: juice to the under fifty percent of tickets on the,
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: under ninety six percent of the cash on the. Under
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 1: so we're going under in this. One as far as the,
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 1: Side milwaukee is public seventy seven percent of, tickets but
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: they actually have ninety two percent of the cash on.
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: Them money line up for minus one fifty to minus one.
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: SIXTY i don't really agree with That cincinnati BECAUSE i
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: think they have a big motivational ledge. HERE i would
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: look Towards cincinnati getting that underdog price, there BUT i
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: think under is the preferred way to play. That let's
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: get into college, football, MAN i know this is the
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: best bets segment, two but college. Football i'm gonna be
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: on two of the three games, here so and hopefully
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 1: we can still get the number on the first game
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: up As Florida state At. Virginia you're not gonna like
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: this at. All nobody's gonna like. This we're gonna go
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: With virginia plus. SEVEN i wouldn't necessarily want to take
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: the six and a. HALF i, mean you, know seven
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: is a key. Number it's the touchdown threshold in football,
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: obviously so seven is a key. Number so you'd rather
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: be getting the touchdowns if they, lose my exactly that,
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: amount and you'll push rather than be a. LOSS i
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: think the seven is probably still out, there and if it's,
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: not you'll probably find it throughout the day because the
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: public is going to be all Over Florida state, here.
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: Man and this is really this is About Florida state being.
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: OVERVALUED i know the total is really. High it's something
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: from fifty nine to. Sixty both these offenses can absolutely,
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: score SO i do worry about. That that a lot of,
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 1: times a high scoring game does lend itself to a
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: favorite being able to. Cover BUT i just think, that
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: like the stock is too high On Florida state right.
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 1: Now you're playing it almost like a stock. MARKET i
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: Think Florida state is just very overvalued. Here so we
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: will do, this the money is at least not really
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: coming in on the over eighty five percent of tickets
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 1: on the, over because you, know the public's gonna see
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 1: this and want to just only playing over here with
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 1: How Florida state has been, scoring and they could probably
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: see That virginia has been good offensively, too so the
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: public's probably gonna come in just on the over. Here
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 1: and WHILE i would really not want to have an underticket,
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: here the money is at least not quite as heavy
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: on the over. There it's sixty nine percent of the
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 1: cash on the, over ALTHOUGH i would not be surprised
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: at all if this game went over. OBVIOUSLY i mean
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: it's you, KNOW i, MEAN i would not want to
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: be sitting on an underticket really in this. One but
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 1: we are gonna go with the. UNDERDOG i, Mean Florida
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: state's up to eighth in the, country and, like what
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: have they done to deserve? This? Man Florida, State they're
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: coming off a horrendous, season and, yeah of course they
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: are better this, year but how much better are they?
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 1: REALLY i don't, know because if you look at the power, ratings,
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: guys like really respected power, Ratings Florida state is like
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: barely in the top twenty five right, now they're like
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 1: somewhere between twenty and twenty, five but they're being ranked
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: eighth in the, country so they're definitely overrated right. Now,
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: man what have they? Done it's all because they Beat.
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: Alabama but, YEAH i mean that's a big. Win they Beat.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: Alabama they were a double digit. Underdog it's. Impressive but
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 1: think about, it, Man, alabama they were going with a
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: true freshman Quarterback, simpson WHO i think is gonna be,
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: good and he's starting to get pretty, good but that
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 1: was a tough spot for him and his first game
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: starting for like this Program. Alabama you, know the pressure
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: is on you in that spot and you're expected to.
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 1: Win you have to go on the road into a hostile.
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: Environment that's not easy at. All so that's kind of
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: part of the reason WHY i Think alabama just didn't
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 1: do as well. There and then since, Then Florida state
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: beat up On East TEXAS a AND m AND fcs.
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 1: TEAM i know they put up seventy seven points against,
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: them but, still what can we really tell from, THAT
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 1: i don't. Know then they Beat Kent state sixty six to.
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 1: Ten Kent state is. Awful they're AN fbs, team but
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 1: they're one of the absolute worst teams in all of THE.
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: Fbs so we don't really know Who Florida state is, yet,
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: man and this is gonna be their first road. TEST
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: i know it's a conference. GAME i know it's their
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: first conference game And virginia has already played a conference.
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: Game but you Know virginia is gonna get up for.
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 1: This this game is ON. Espn, YEAH i mean both
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: teams should get up for it because it's a primetime,
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 1: game BUT i think it means more To, virginia, man
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 1: because how often Does virginia get to host a PRIMETIME
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 1: espn game against a big name team Like Florida. State
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: Like virginia is gonna be super motivated for, this or
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 1: Is Florida. State they're just kind of been rolling. ALONG
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 1: i haven't exactly been tested for a, while at least
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 1: since The alabama. Game and they have a big game
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: up next, man Against, miami who's ranked number two in the,
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 1: country WHICH i Think miami's overrated. TOO i think they
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: may be a top ten, team BUT i don't think
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 1: they're number. Two but, still that's a huge game and
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 1: it's a Big florida rivalry as Well Florida state Against.
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: Miami So Florida state might be starting to look ahead
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 1: a little bit here man To. Miami SO i really
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 1: don't like. THIS i just Think Florida state hasn't done
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 1: enough yet to really be ranked this. Highly Man like
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: they would still be an underdog Against, alabama And alabama
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: is ranked seventeenth or something right, Now like the rankings
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: makers are just they're just going totally on recency. Bias
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 1: they don't know what the fuck they're. Doing it looks
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: way too easy to Take Florida state here man seventy
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: four percent of, tickets only seventy percent of the cash from.
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: Them the books are almost begging you to lay the
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: price With Florida state. HERE i don't want to do.
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 1: IT i know their quarterbacks at least. Experienced they Have castellanos,
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 1: there BUT i still think he's a head. Case he
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 1: basically turned his back ON bc it just left and
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 1: he was just being a total. Asshole SO i do
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 1: have some. BIAS i don't want to see him do well.
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 1: Here BUT i still don't Think Florida state could be
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 1: this much improved over last. Year the last. YEAR i
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 1: think they underperformed last. YEAR i think once they knew
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: they were out of, it they just kind of stopped
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 1: trying and they had some injuries and. Whatever last year
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: they you, know they had all those guys bail on The.
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: BOWL i think the year before that where they and
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: they lost some of their best players coming into last.
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 1: Year so it wasn't a great situation For Florida state last.
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 1: Year WHERE i went against them in their first game last,
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: year The dublin. Game Georgia tech got us an outright
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 1: win there on that, one But Florida, STATE i, mean
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 1: it's just kind of. Ridiculous, Like Florida, state after this,
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: game they'll have scored more points this season than they
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: did all of last, season and that's absolutely. Insane but,
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 1: AGAIN i think that makes them an over value commodity, Here, like,
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 1: yeah they're better this, year but they're not this much
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: better in my, Opinion so, yeah they're over. Rated right,
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 1: Now we're gonna go With. VIRGINIA i Think virginia is
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 1: actually under the radar right. Now. Man. VIRGINIA i, mean
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: they've played a couple OF fbs, Teams they've played THREE fbs.
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 1: Teams their only loss was one where maybe they shouldn't
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: have even lost AT Nc. State that was their only.
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 1: Loss it was their only road. Game they lost AT
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 1: Nc state in a CLOSE acc. Battle So virginia or
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 1: wait a, minute What wait that wasn't AN Ac wait
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 1: what that was AN acc? Battle? RIGHT i don't know
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 1: what we're talking about. HERE i don't know why it
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 1: says they're, UH Nc state's in THE. AM i like
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: having like a stroke or something. Like it looks like
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 1: they have TWO acc games AGAINST Nc state And. Stanford
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 1: is that not? Right where the fuck? Is? YEAH Nc state's,
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 1: Here so, yeah that's kind of. Bizarre it Says virginia
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 1: one to zero in. Conference aren't they won the? ONE
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 1: i don't. Know i'm confused by. That But, virginia they
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 1: probably should have won that game AT Nc. State, man
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 1: they went in. There they OUTGAINED Nc state by like
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 1: one hundred yards in that. Game they put up five
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 1: hundred yards of offense in that game against. Nccate This
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 1: virginia offense can move the, ball, man they absolutely can do.
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 1: It they should have won that. Game LIKE i, said
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 1: they're winning that game in the third quarter and then
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 1: neither team scored in the fourth. Quarter very strange game
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 1: based on the. Stats virginia should have won that, game
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 1: and they put up a ton of, points, man like
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 1: that was the only game and they scored less than forty.
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 1: EIGHT i know they've done it Against Coastal Carolina william And,
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 1: mary who was AN fcs, team But william And mary
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 1: is an in state little, brother and they still absolutely
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 1: smack them. Down and then last game Against. STANFORD i
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 1: Know stanford's a struggling team that's rebuilding right, now so
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 1: not a whole lot to take away from. That But
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 1: virginia still has been moving the ball. Offensively, MAN i
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 1: think they're under the radar right. Now they've been moving At,
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 1: morris their, quarterback and putting up some pretty gaudy. Numbers
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 1: they've been able to run the ball a little bit
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 1: With taylor as. Well morris is a little bit of
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 1: a dual threat as. Well the only reason why you
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 1: see those guys not getting on the stat sheet Against
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: william And mary is Because virginia put in their backups
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 1: in that game up pretty, sure because they were just way,
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 1: ahead so they rested their guys a little. Bit both
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 1: teams played last, week so both teams are on a
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 1: short week, here so that's not an advantage to one
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 1: team or the. Other, YEAH i MEAN i Think Florida state's.
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 1: Overvalued it's the first, road you. KNOW i think this
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 1: is my least of the two plays. Here but this
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 1: game just jumped out at. Me. Man it's, LIKE i
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 1: Think Florida state's. OVERVALUED i don't, know, Man maybe Maybe
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 1: i'm just getting too crazy because on these isolated, GAMES
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 1: i spend, More LIKE i pay more attention to the
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 1: isolated games when it's not a like a game in
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: the middle of Like saturday or. Whatever so MAYBE i
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 1: get too crazy on. It but LIKE i THINK i
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 1: do well on these isolated, games like BECAUSE i dig
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: more into, Them Like i'm perfect again on The thursday
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: night games in THE. NFL i THINK i. WON i
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 1: THINK i was right on the vast majority of THE
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: Nfl thursday night games last, year And i'm four and
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 1: zero on the side this. Year With seattle hanging on
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 1: for a win last night FOR, US i didn't give
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: it out as a, play BUT i leaned that way
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 1: and they were winning twenty to six late in the
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: game and blew it and then still won with a
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 1: late field. Goal but, YEAH i, MEAN i don't, know, Man,
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 1: like Maybe i'm putting too much weight into, these but,
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 1: again these primetime. Games the other thing about these, games,
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 1: though is that the public gets more involved in these
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 1: games because they want to just have some action on
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 1: THE tv. Games so fading the public makes more sense
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 1: at games like this. Too so we're Getting virginia home.
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 1: Underdog it is still the first road game For Florida,
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 1: state so that's usually a difficult spot playing your first
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 1: road game this late in the. Season we're gonna go With.
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 1: VIRGINIA i think they're. Undervalued first half under thirty and
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 1: a half for, Date oh, MAN i MEAN i think
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 1: the first. Half it seems like a good number because
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 1: usually the second half is more high scoring than the first.
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 1: Half some surprise that that number is where it is,
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 1: THERE i, mean it seems dangerous to me still. Though
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 1: On fox at nine pm Tonight eastern that's the seven
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: pm Game Florida. State In, virginia we have number twenty
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 1: FOUR tcu at Unranked Arizona. State But Arizona state is
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 1: a favorite here AND i talk about this. TOO i
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 1: talk about it in college. Basketball same thing applies to college.
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 1: Football if you get an unranked team that's a, favorite
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 1: over ranked, team you gotta look into that, game, man
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 1: because there's a reason why that unranked team is. Favorite
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 1: the oddsmakers are telling you that they're probably the better,
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 1: team although in this, case of, Course Arizona state is
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 1: getting a home, field so the oddsbeakers are telling you
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 1: that the teams are pretty much about, even although in
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 1: this case it's not like a huge like it's not
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 1: really like that strange BECAUSE tcu is barely cracking the
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 1: top twenty five here In Arizona state is basically just
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 1: out of the top twenty five right. Now so maybe
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 1: it's not as weird to See Arizona state as a
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 1: favorite in a game like this, one BUT i think
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 1: it's still is kind of this situation where the public
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 1: is still gonna see this and, think, OH TCUs are ranked.
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 1: Team they're getting. Points that's the way THAT i want
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: to go, here AND i do not agree with. THAT
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 1: i would lay the three points Of Arizona state IF
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 1: i was going to play this. Game the total has gone,
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 1: down WHICH i think actually Favors Arizona state because the
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 1: total is down for fifty six and a half to
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 1: fifty four and a. HALF i know we see eighty
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 1: six percent tickets on the over ninety one percent of
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 1: the cash on the. OVER i don't know IF i
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 1: buy that cash. Percentage If Arizona state is going to
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 1: do well in this, GAME i think that means their
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 1: defense is coming to. Play AND i think they're correlated
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 1: with the under in this game because you HAVE, tcu
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 1: which is a team that's all offense Against Arizona state
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 1: who has an okay offense and a good. Defense and
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 1: you know, ME i like the better. Defense i'd prefer
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 1: the better defense getting. Points BUT i still Think arizona
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 1: laying a small price like this at the, three or
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 1: you might even want to go money line with. IT
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 1: i still Think Arizona state should get this, done win the.
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 1: GAME i think their defense should get the job done for. Them.
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 1: Here as far AS, tcu they are coming off a
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 1: pretty big game AGAINST. Smu we haven't really seen much FROM.
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 1: TAT i, mean we saw them Annihilate Bill. Belichick everybody
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 1: saw that. Game But North carolina is not. Good they
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 1: have a bad. Defense they've been really, bad so not
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 1: much we can take away from. THAT tcu actually didn't
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 1: do that impressively AGAINST Fcs Abilene christian who's not really
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 1: that bad a, team BUT tcu only beat them forty
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 1: two to twenty. One maybe they were kind of just
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 1: sandwiched in there not really paying attention to that game
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 1: looking ahead as well to THE smu game, there and
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 1: that's the game they played last they BEAT. SMU TCU
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 1: i think had a bye early in the, season which
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 1: is not very. HELPFUL i, mean having a bye After
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 1: week one kind of. STUPID i don't know, why but
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 1: teams get two buys in college, now so. Whatever but
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 1: they PLAYED smu this past, Week Big texas. Game, MAN
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 1: i know they're still gonna get up for this game
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 1: because this is their first conference. Game so it's still
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 1: a big game for both teams because it is, again you,
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 1: know it's a game between two teams they're gonna be
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 1: vying to win the conference again here probably so Especially Arizona,
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 1: State so it is a big. Game BUT tcu is
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 1: coming off That Big texas game as well AGAINST. Smu
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 1: Arizona state is coming up a big game as. Well
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 1: they had a nice road win At, baylor so this
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 1: is not their first conference. Game they just played a
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 1: conference game and they're traveling back home and playing a
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 1: second straight conference. Game so both teams are kind of
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 1: playing two step up games in a row, here SO
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 1: i think that kind of negates itself as far as
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 1: how big a game this is for either. Team Arizona
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 1: state has played a more difficult, schedule though they already
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 1: did have to play AN sec, Team Mississippi, state on the.
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 1: Road it was a tough game and they lost that,
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 1: game and then they Played baylor, Already So Arizona state
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 1: actually has played two teams that are better than every
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 1: team AT tcu has. Played So Arizona state has played
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 1: a more difficult. Schedule baylor And Mississippi state are both
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 1: better than any opponent THAT tcu has faced so. FAR
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 1: i know people REMEMBER smu being in the playoffs last,
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 1: year BUT i just don't think they're that. GOOD. Tcu,
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: yeah they could, score but their defense is very. QUESTIONABLE
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 1: i Think Arizona state should be able to get some
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 1: point in this one against that, deepfense AND i think
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 1: their deep ens should be able to HOLD tcu in.
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 1: Check Arizona state's more battle. Tested that would be my
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 1: lean in that. One Arizona state UH ncaa players are getting,
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 1: Paid yes they are with THE, nil WHICH i think
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 1: they should, be but it kind of like leads to
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 1: weird situations where that combined with the transfer, portal now
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 1: means players can just kind of go where they're gonna
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 1: get paid more. Money and it kind of it makes
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 1: like it makes THE ncaaa more top, heavy, Right like
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 1: it makes all these top teams and that like the
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 1: big conference teams in THE. Ncaaa it makes them all,
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 1: good and it kind of makes the little guys take
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 1: a step back and have less of a. Shot SO
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 1: i kind of don't like that where a lot of
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 1: times you'd have the experienced guys like just playing their
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 1: entire career with the little. Guys BUT i, mean, YEAH i,
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 1: MEAN i, guess, UH i, mean that's that's just the new.
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 1: WAY i guess some THINGS i think are good about,
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 1: It LIKE i do think the players deserve to be.
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 1: Paid but the fact that it's kind of top loading
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 1: the THE, NCAAA i think is not really has good a.
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 1: Thing and let's finish this. Off i'm gonna have a
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 1: play on this one, Too Oregon state plus thirteen and a.
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 1: Half if you want to wait on this to try
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 1: to get, fourteen you could definitely do that. TOO i
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 1: don't know if it's gonna get. There but the two
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 1: touchdowns would be nice. HERE i like this Against. Houston,
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 1: man the MORE i dug into this, One i'm, like,
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 1: yeah this is probably my favorite of these. Plays and
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 1: the public is Taking houston eighty percent of tickets only
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 1: seventy percent of the cash On. Houston houston's up from
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 1: eleven and a half to thirteen and a. Half but
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 1: the other thing you got to notice here is that
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 1: this is a really low. Total it's seve from forty
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 1: eight and a half to forty eight Because Oregon state
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 1: not really good offensively And houston is good. Defensively but
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 1: when you're getting a really low total like, this getting
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 1: a double digit, underdog every point means more when the
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 1: total is this, low, Man so you're getting a lot
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 1: of value playing an, underdog especially at home in a
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 1: game like this where the total is that, Low, like
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 1: what do you Expect Oregon state to score in the
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 1: single digits? Here that's pretty much the Way houston is
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: gonna be able to cover that number and for the
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 1: number to still go UNDER i mean almost that's what
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 1: you're Base he's saying is gonna happen. Here so, YEAH i,
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 1: MEAN i think it's a lot of value getting that
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 1: many points with the, game it's supposed to be that
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 1: low scoring seventy one percent of tickets eighty nine percent
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 1: of the cash coming in on the, over but the
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 1: total did drop a little, bit SO i don't know
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 1: IF i buy. That public might not even pay attention
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 1: to this game as far as wanted to play an
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 1: over Because houston's offense has really not been, impressive which
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 1: is another, thing another reason WHY i THINK i want
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 1: to kind of just go against them. Here houston really
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 1: hasn't played. Anybody they BEAT Fcs STEPHEN. F, austin which
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 1: was an in state little, brother but beat them twenty
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 1: seven or, nothing but. Whatever then they Played, rice WHICH
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 1: i Know rice is an in city little, brother But
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 1: rice just isn't that. Good rice is trying to switch
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 1: over to like a triple. OPTION i, Mean rice can't
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 1: score right. Now they're. Bad houston was able to beat.
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 1: THEM i Know rice did Beat charlotte the other. NIGHT
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 1: i think it one of the primetime, games but, still
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 1: these are not impressive wins For. Houston and then the
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 1: best team they faced Was colorado and they beat Them,
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 1: colorado and we know they're not what they were last.
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 1: Year they don't Have, sanders they don't Have hunter. Anymore
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 1: they do Have dion as their coach. Still But i'm
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 1: not impressed by any of these games That houston has
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 1: played so, Far, Man and this is gonna be the
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 1: first game that they're leaving the city Of. Houston so
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 1: think about. That they have one road game At, rice
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 1: but that was In, houston Because rice is In. Houston
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 1: So houston has not left the city Of houston so.
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 1: Far and now they have to go play in an
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar venue where they don't usually play At Oregon state
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 1: and they have to go and play on The Pacific
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 1: coast up Against Oregon state in a late night. Game
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 1: that might fuck with the team from the central times.
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 1: On it might fuck with their biological clock because this
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 1: game is basically gonna end around LIKE i don't know
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 1: what is it gonna end, at like ELEVEN pm the, airtime,
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 1: midnight the, airtime whatever the fuck it, Is so, YEAH
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 1: i mean something like. That so it's not an easy
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 1: spot for. Them and who do they have next next?
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 1: Week by the, Way houston has to Play Texas, tech
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 1: who are doing really well so. Far they're. Undefeated that's
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 1: a huge big twelve game and it's a Big texas
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 1: Versus texas game as. Well that is a huge. Game
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 1: SO i don't think this is a good spot at.
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 1: ALL i think it's a look ahead spot For houston there.
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 1: Too nobody's gonna Want Oregon state here at, all man
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 1: Because Oregon states owned four And houston's three to Ohero
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 1: But houston's played, nobody LIKE i, said Except colorado is
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 1: the best, team they, played. Whatever But Oregon state's played
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 1: ALL fbs. Teams they haven't faced ANY fcs. TEAMS i
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 1: know they Faced Calan. Fresno those teams aren't that great
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 1: and they lost to. THEM i know that's not a
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 1: good sign losing to both those teams at. Home but
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 1: the last two games they got battle. Tests they Played
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 1: Texas tech And, oregon WHICH i know that's a big,
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 1: rivalry but they just couldn't compete with The Oregon they
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 1: got completely. Outmanned they lost forty one to. Seven SO
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 1: i don't think this is any sort of spot Or
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 1: Oregon state's gonna be in like a hangover spot or
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 1: anything like. THAT i, mean that was just. Bad So
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 1: Oregon state has played the way more difficult schedule Than houston, has,
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 1: though And houston is a defensive. Team they're not that
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 1: equipped to cover a large spread like. This bad environment For,
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 1: houston really weird, spot bad, spot look ahead. Spot and
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 1: the spot's even worse for. Us so Much i'm gonna
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 1: talk about in a. SECOND i should have talked about it.
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 1: Already But Oregon, State, YEAH i mean they've played, Through
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 1: they've been playing every week so. Far this is a
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 1: home game for, Them they're back at. Home it's gonna
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 1: be their biggest home game so. Far they get to
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 1: face Another big twelve team like this is basically their
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 1: only other shot against a big conference team besides Facing
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 1: wake a little bit later in the. Season but because
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 1: they're one of these orphan teams in The pac two,
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 1: now they really don't face a difficult schedule after. This
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 1: so this is one of their big step up. Games.
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 1: Man and this one is ON. Espn like that game
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 1: Against wake is on A saturday, afternoon in the middle
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 1: of the, Day so this IS i think it might
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 1: be a bigger game for them here against an Undefeated
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 1: big twelve team ON Espn friday, night isolated prime. Time
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 1: this is their chance to show up for a. Game
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 1: they don't get games like this very. Offense SO i
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 1: think this is a big motivated spot For Oregon. State
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 1: i'm not sure that it really is For. Houston and
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 1: For houston, YEAH i mean it's a road out of
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 1: conference game, too so it means a little bit less
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 1: than them, too because everything even if even If houston
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 1: loses this, game everything is still in front of them
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 1: as far as trying to win The Big, twelve if
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 1: that's what their goal is, here because they're want to
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 1: know in The Big twelve so. Far but the other
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 1: thing about this Is houston is coming out of a
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 1: bye and you might, say, well that's a good thing
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 1: because they, rested BUT i actually don't think. So when
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 1: you're a team that's three and OH i talk about,
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 1: This if you have a buye and an inopportune time like,
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 1: that it's like everything's going well for, You so what
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 1: do you use the buye. For, yeah you might prepare
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 1: something For Oregon, state but everything's working for. You you have
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 1: nothing to. Fix so coming going into a buy on
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 1: a good note like, THAT i think it's a momentum.
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 1: Stopper like teams then went into a buy in a bad.
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 1: Note you want to look for them coming out of
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 1: the buy to do better because they have a bunch
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 1: of shit to fix during the. Buy but when everything's,
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 1: working you're gonna kind of relax on that buy and, think,
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 1: hey look at how good we. Are. Man we don't
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 1: have anything to. Fix we're doing well. Whatever and they
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 1: might spend some time prepping For Texas tech, too man,
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 1: like they might not be focused as much on this.
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 1: Game so we're gonna go with The Oregon state in
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 1: this one man plus the. Points MAYBE i shouldn't go
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 1: With virginia though Maybe i'm pushing, it but that is
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 1: gonna be, it man for. Today those are the best
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 1: bets that pisses you off as far as THE. Nil
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 1: you get a college, scholarship play sports that you get
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 1: paid on top of. That, yeah, yeah so well with
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 1: the military military doesn't have THE. Nil the military schools
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 1: are not allowed to participate in, it which might piss
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 1: you off more, actually because that means the military schools
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 1: are going to be taking a step back to the, Military, Army,
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 1: navy Air, force. Whatever they're not allowed to participate in
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 1: THE nil or the transfer, Portal so those teams are
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 1: gonna like probably have a pretty significant drop off, too
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 1: which is crazier easier to get scholarships from A d.
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 1: ONE i, mean, yeah college is basically. Free they're making
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 1: money while being. There, yeah but LIKE i mean, COLLEGE
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 1: i mean the academic portion of. COLLEGE i mean it's
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 1: kind OF bs like. College these colleges are kind of indoctrination.
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 1: Center so like if guys want to go and the
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 1: only thing they're doing is playing, football, Like i'm, fine
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 1: but that ALTHOUGH i know a lot of these guys
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 1: are not good. DUDES i know, that so there is
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 1: that as. Well but you went to VM. I, YEAH
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 1: i pay more attention to vm i's basketball BECAUSE i
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 1: take all Of division. ONE i handicap all Of division
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 1: one in, basketball which is a huge amount of work
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 1: to do. It and it really sucked for me last year,
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 1: too which is REALLY i was really good the last
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 1: couple of years in college basketball and last year was
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 1: terrible or this past, year SO i don't, know but
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 1: VM i either' in the SoCon or whatever THAT i
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 1: pay attention a little bit to. THEM i THINK i
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 1: had at least one or two bets on VM i
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 1: this past. Season BUT i, MEAN i, still in my,
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 1: OPINION i do think players are probably deserving to be
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 1: getting paid for you know that work that they're doing,
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 1: There SO i don't really have a problem with. That
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 1: BUT i MEAN i see what you're, saying like, YEAH
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 1: i mean they kind of have this like advantage LIKE
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 1: i guess over everybody. Else but like, AGAIN i, mean
• 1:52:09
  Speaker 1: colleges are just in doctrination centers. Anyway SO i just
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 1: don't really care that much about. IT i, MEAN i don't, know,
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 1: Man and maybe the scholarship stuff might dial back a
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 1: little bit because THE nil coming into. PLAY i don't
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 1: know if that affects the scholarships in some, way like
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 1: maybe like these guys won't be on a scholarship as
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 1: much and they'll just use some of THEIR nil money
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 1: to just pay for college or. Whatever i'm not sure
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 1: how it works exactly, now but we will. SEE i
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 1: gotta get out of, HERE i gotta eat some, lunch
• 1:52:36
  Speaker 1: and this is gonna be it for. Me today we
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 1: got a bunch of plays. Today we GOT Wnba minnesota minus,
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 1: Four baseball under in the first five In Tampa, Bay
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 1: toronto under full, Game Reds brewers college football gonna have
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 1: a fun. Night plays on BOTH espn Games virginia plus,
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 1: Seven Oregon state plus thirteen and a. Half let's get it. Done,
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 1: man hopefully these all pan out with's get the uh
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 1: get the wins. Here, yeah, man thanks for hanging out.
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 1: AGAIN i appreciate. IT i like that you like, it,
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 1: man you keep coming. Back it's what we. Want we
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 1: want to get more people show up for. This to
• 1:53:10
  Speaker 1: show up for, this learn to tone On, twitter learn
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 1: to tone On, instagram better off dead like subscribe to
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 1: the channel here on. YouTube, man everything helps me. Out
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 1: we're on an audio good review and listen on audio
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 1: helps me out as. Well, Spotify apple covering in you
• 1:53:24
  Speaker 1: because my yuke channel on, YouTube WHICH i do want
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 1: to get more stuff going on there as, well And
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 1: patreon dot com sash learned to toad h so that
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 1: is you can throw me some support there and there
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 1: is some bonus uke content there WHICH i really need
• 1:53:37
  Speaker 1: to keep up to date better than, THAT i, know,
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 1: Man i'm not keeping it up to date as, much
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 1: but we got to do. That got a couple of
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 1: covers THAT i got to put up on the YouTube
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 1: channel as. Well but too many things keeping my focus. Now,
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 1: MAN i still have to focus on trying to, find you,
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 1: know more work just to make some, money LIKE i
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 1: might wind up working it to. What this is so. Ridiculous,
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 1: man my camera just on. FOCUSES i gotta find some
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 1: work as. Well. Man so, yeah sports. Analytics. Yeah the
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 1: problem is my politics make me like they don't they
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 1: don't want, me and like nobody wants me in any
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 1: of these. Places But i've always wanted to do, that
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 1: like like that should have been my thought Because i've
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 1: been like obsessed with like, sports especially, baseball like sports
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 1: statistics SINCE i was a. Kid so, yeah and then
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 1: got into really trying to like predict. Them oh thank.
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 1: YOU i think my voice is. Terrible it's not one
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 1: of those like deep sexy. VOICES i don't. Know my
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 1: voice IS i think very, abrasive BUT i don't. KNOW
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 1: i mean WHEN i go back and listen to, IT
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 1: i don't like. It but thank, you. SIR i would
• 1:54:37
  Speaker 1: love to do something like, that maybe a web show
• 1:54:40
  Speaker 1: of some kind that's one where the guys that do
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 1: it just don't. Care MAYBE i should start my own
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 1: LIKE i. DID i was on Cole My tower and
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 1: co host had a sports show that lasted about eight
• 1:54:52
  Speaker 1: episodes WHERE i wasn't one of the co. Hosts it
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 1: was him and a couple of his old. Friends BUT
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 1: i was on probably half of the. Episodes BUT i
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 1: was thinking, of like maybe doing a sports show with
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 1: him And Duke, chastain who was on that show a
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 1: couple of times with them. Too like we all know,
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 1: sports we all talk about. SPORTS i have a different
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 1: perspective where they disagree with me all the time BECAUSE
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 1: i have the very contrariant views on trying to predict
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 1: these games and. Whatever SO i don't. Know But, COLE i,
• 1:55:20
  Speaker 1: mean he's prepared to be a father of two pretty soon,
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 1: now so you, KNOW i, MEAN i don't think he's
• 1:55:25
  Speaker 1: gonna be doing a whole lot of. Anything congratulations to.
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 1: Him by the. WAY i got to catch up with,
• 1:55:30
  Speaker 1: them by the, way BECAUSE i think THE do DATE
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 1: i think is coming up really, soon SO i gotta
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 1: check in with them see what's going. On but that's
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 1: gonna do. It. Man thanks for hanging out this. Morning in,
• 1:55:38
  Speaker 1: peace