Latest / AST SpaceMobile Podcast / Anpanman - Space is Hard: Analyzing the New Glenn 3 Anomaly and Bluebird 7 Loss

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Anpanman - Space is Hard: Analyzing the New Glenn 3 Anomaly and Bluebird 7 Loss · AST SpaceMobile Podcast

0:06
This is the AST Space Mobile podcast.
0:10
Where we just basically turn the phone be seamless, regardless of
0:14
where you are. We don't want the user even to
0:16
know that it's connected by satellite.
0:21
Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
0:27
Hey everyone. What a, an emotional roller
0:31
coaster of the day. And I apologize for the
0:34
background noise. My, my son, he just helped him
0:37
set up a 3D printer, I guess a few days ago and he's been
0:41
printing things like that. And so there's this, I guess
0:44
he's making some kind of structure so you'll hear some
0:47
noise in the background. But but yeah, I, I got back this
0:51
afternoon. What a as I said, what a roller
0:55
coaster of a weekend. It was wonderful to see many of
0:59
you meet you in person. And of course, you know, I got
1:03
to say hello to about and Scott, Michael Pollock, Chris Ivory and
1:08
a few others. I even saw Dave Marshak there,
1:11
which was great. But of course, you know that we
1:15
went through this period of elation, everyone hanging out
1:19
together, you know, pumped up for this event.
1:22
And, you know, we saw the successful launch of Blue Origin
1:26
New Glen 3, which was an amazing sight to see in person.
1:31
And and of course, you know, once this the the rocket had
1:35
launched and they landed the booster, everyone, you know,
1:38
left the viewing area and we just assumed that things would
1:42
kind of go off without a hitch. But of course, as time passed
1:46
and we didn't get an update on the status of Bluebird 7, which,
1:51
you know, this specific mission, they were doing something in
1:54
particular where they, they were going to have two burns with the
1:57
second stage. We'll talk talk a bit more about
1:59
later. But after the, after the, the
2:03
second stage had coasted from the first burn, I believe it's
2:07
called, you know, the first burn is to get, get you just, or an
2:10
apogee and then you coast for a while.
2:12
And then once you get to a certain part of the what at that
2:15
point in time is the elliptical orbit, you do the second burn
2:18
that get you into a circular orbit.
2:21
It appears, and we don't know for sure, but it appears that
2:24
the second burn did not happen. And so the satellite is on this,
2:28
you know, this elliptical orbit, which at its furthest point out
2:33
has 500 kilometers of height, but then at the lowest point is
2:37
like 150 kilometers, which is not enough to stay in orbit.
2:41
And so, you know, over the course of a few hours and, you
2:47
know, people were after coming down from adrenaline, you know,
2:53
just very tired from I think I slept like from the travel and
2:57
then getting to the hotel room late maybe I slept like an hour
2:59
and a half. I at that point I just started
3:03
getting really tired and, and of course I was dejected as well
3:06
that, you know, that the satellite didn't reach orbit.
3:10
And then of course, we did get the disclosure from the company
3:14
that although the Blue Origin mission for the booster, the
3:20
first stage booster was successful, the second stage
3:23
obviously did not perform as intended.
3:25
And as a result, because of the the elliptical orbit, they would
3:30
have to because FM 2 does not have, it is heavy #1 and #2
3:36
because it doesn't have enough propulsion that they would just,
3:40
you know, D orb satellite. And so that's kind of where we
3:44
are. It's unfortunate, but as I wrote
3:48
some notes this afternoon, I thought about it a bit more and
3:52
I had a very brief conversation with the company as well to talk
3:56
about a little bit of what happened today and, and some of
3:59
the different, you know, insights, which I'll share here.
4:04
But yeah, it's I think it's a stark reminder that space is
4:07
hard. And so I think often times
4:10
people who are whoever there have an interest in space or are
4:15
invested in stocks, when it's not your company and something
4:19
goes wrong or another company, often times you'll see people
4:23
come out and make snarky comments.
4:26
And you know, I'm, I probably, if I were to go back on my, my
4:29
feet, I'm sure that I, I've had snarky comments here, there.
4:34
But I think, you know, obviously when, when something happens for
4:37
your company, then it's, it sucks.
4:39
And so that's what's happening today.
4:41
There's some people out of the woodwork who, whether it's I
4:45
told you So's or Blue Origin, you know, you should have gone
4:48
with those guys. This is part of the process,
4:51
right? And you know, SpaceX when as
4:55
they can do to iterate Starship and, you know, I hope they
4:59
ultimately get to some level of success.
5:01
And and of course, Rocket Lab is, is going to be testing
5:05
Neutron. There's going to be, there's
5:07
going to be your setbacks. And that's part of this, I will
5:11
say. So you know, keeping that in
5:13
mind, that space is hard. The margin of error is very
5:16
small, right? And once you throw stuff out in
5:19
space, it's hard to within, within certain parameters you
5:24
can recover, but outside of those, it's hard.
5:26
And so this satellite in particular, this was a an SDA
5:31
Space Force mission, one of two satellites, and it was not built
5:36
to get raised or have the propulsion to for anomaly this
5:40
this big. So things can and they do go
5:44
wrong. And I guess it's important to
5:47
remember that, you know, ASD space mobile was not at fault
5:50
here. Blue Origin, they unfortunately,
5:53
yeah, this is a a new platform. And I think perhaps some of us,
5:58
I myself, well, I'll just speak for myself.
6:00
Like as I flew down to Cape Canaveral, it kind of dawned on
6:05
me and when I, when I was on the plane that, oh, there's actually
6:10
quite a bit more risk here. Even though I think everyone was
6:14
focused on the booster, the first stage, the second stage, I
6:18
think most people kind of view that as well.
6:20
Give me like, it's going to be just fine.
6:22
But when you kind of go back and look at what the technology
6:26
that's required to get a second burn after a coast, you know, so
6:31
there's some things that can go wrong.
6:33
And So what what this means is, you know, Blue Origin is going
6:37
to have to go analyze this and fix it.
6:39
And they did have, you know, with New Glenn one, when the
6:46
first stage booster, you know, they didn't have a, a reignition
6:50
on that, on that rocket, which obviously then they lost the
6:53
booster. But they went back and learned,
6:56
I think they took like 7 corrective actions.
6:58
And then of course, that led to the success of New Glenn 2.
7:01
And then that New Glenn 2 booster was reused here.
7:05
So, so yeah, this is part of the process.
7:09
And but going back to ASD Suites Mobile, prior to this, the
7:12
company was 6 for six. And for all intensive purposes,
7:15
perhaps they're still, they still have an unblemished record
7:20
because this satellite was lost not due to their actions, but
7:25
they're still 6 for six. And I guess we just don't count
7:27
7 because it never got a chance to perform, which is quite sad
7:31
to think about. But let's, you know, I took some
7:35
notes today and as I was flying back and drifting in and out of
7:39
sleep, I, I thought about, you know, what are the negatives of
7:44
this? So we'll go through the
7:45
negatives first and then we'll talk about the positives.
7:47
But you know, I think it's good to have a balanced point of
7:52
view. Obviously the stock is down
7:55
after hours or pre market. I think it's down like $75.00.
8:00
So down call it 12% from the close on Friday, which I think
8:05
is somewhat appropriate. I mean, it's, it's, you know,
8:09
obviously this puts into question Blue Origins ability
8:15
to, you know, deliver payload successfully.
8:17
But as I said, this is, you know, part of a process.
8:20
But you know, once you kind of start peeling back the layers of
8:24
the onions, it can either go one way, which is good, or could go
8:28
another way, which is detrimental, right?
8:31
And so let's talk about the negative.
8:32
So today, as I mentioned before, Blue Origin, you know, we had a
8:37
second stage failure. And so the booster performed and
8:42
it landed the first stage and then the second stage separated
8:46
properly and it got the first burn to get to a proper apogee.
8:49
But then it then after coasting and getting to the right spot,
8:55
it did not have a second burn, which would have, you know, got
8:59
the right pedigree, which then would have made the orbit
9:01
circular. There's speculation out there
9:04
like, you know, after the first burn, there's some period of
9:07
time where the the booster coasts and when it coasts it can
9:11
freeze. You know, there's things that
9:13
can happen if there was a leak, for example, and you know you
9:17
had some propellant that free froze, then it would be hard to
9:19
reignite. So that could be a potential
9:21
problem or could be something else.
9:23
But what we do know, of course is that it Bluebird 7 was not
9:28
put in a proper circular orbit and as a result it will need to
9:33
be deorbit. And so that's that's obviously a
9:35
negative. You know, certain parts of the
9:37
mission were were were successful, but the ultimate,
9:42
you know, goal of delivering customer payload to the right
9:44
orbit that was a failure. And so I think let me see your
9:50
leaked the FAA on the FIB. Let's see, the FAA statement
9:56
says the FAA is aware that Blue Origin New Glenn 3 experienced A
9:59
mishap during second stage flight sequence.
10:02
Following a successful launch, the FAA notified NASA, the NTSB,
10:08
US Space Force about the classification of the incident.
10:10
Contact Blue Origin for additional details.
10:13
So I think they're waiting for Blue Origin to get more details
10:17
on what exactly happened. And then, you know, depending on
10:22
the severity or you know, if it's, if it's a minor issue or
10:26
if it's a pretty major issue, that will determine how long a
10:30
potential investigation might take place.
10:32
So just to give people an example, the first stage booster
10:38
for New Glen one I think when that failed, that was, let me
10:43
look here, I think that was like January 16th and then the FAA
10:50
had an investigation that was closed out on March 28th.
10:55
And so again I mentioned before that that took like 7 corrective
10:59
actions. And so that was like a 2 month
11:02
investigation. And so here I would expect
11:04
probably something like one to two-month investigation and then
11:08
or it could be faster. I mean, it depends if it's
11:11
something minor, it could be pretty fast or if it's something
11:13
major, it could be very long. And so depending on that
11:17
outcome, that will determine when Blue Origin will fly again.
11:21
And you know, that could may or not may not impact AST's
11:26
timeline. I think it's important to note
11:29
that, you know, now Blue Origin has two boosters and so two
11:36
first age boosters. And so given that one has flown
11:40
twice and of course the other one hasn't flown yet, but once
11:43
they kind of nailed down this refurbishment process.
11:46
I think David Limp had talked about a 30 day turn around.
11:51
Now that you have two working boosters and they probably are
11:53
going to add another if they have enough second stage
11:57
boosters. And that means that you can
12:00
essentially fly every two weeks. Once again, you have cadence
12:03
nailed down and you obviously have to have a lot of the second
12:06
stage boosters, which I believe they have like 6 or 7.
12:09
I could be wrong there. But anyway, in terms of getting
12:14
to a, you know, fully ramped cadence, I think David lived
12:18
during the video ahead of today's launch.
12:23
I think he had mentioned something around trying to get 8
12:26
to 10 launches this year, which is pretty aggressive.
12:30
Of course, you know, if if he says 8 or 10, as we know in
12:32
space, you probably discount that by 2030%.
12:36
But now that they have this issue, you know, you'll have to
12:38
have the investigation and then resolution of it and then
12:42
they'll be able to fly again. I guess an important thing to
12:46
note here is that this was a certification flight for Blue
12:49
Origin. And so in some respects, this
12:53
was a test flight for Blue Origin in order to prove itself
12:56
to the US Department of Defense. Also because it was a Tesla,
13:01
I'm, I'm assuming that the flight was probably discounted
13:04
pretty heavily. And, and so FMFM 2 or BB7, this
13:12
was a test as well for that satellite.
13:15
And So what I understand is that I believe of course BB 6 was
13:19
successfully launched by Israel. It's like out in space, it's
13:22
performing and that BB6 and BB7 are SDA satellites.
13:28
And so for I understand, like the loss of this satellite
13:32
doesn't actually impact the work that the company's doing with
13:35
the SDA. And this satellite in particular
13:39
was actually built as a backup. So if BB 6 had failed, BB7 would
13:43
be, you know, the backup. And so the fact that this one's
13:48
lost is not it's not, you know, material to the work that the
13:53
company's doing with with the government.
13:56
One question I did ask the company, I was like, well, if
13:58
they was this intended to be used as a pair, like, would you,
14:04
you know, is it needed for, for what you were planning to do?
14:07
And the answer was no. When asks, you know, if perhaps
14:12
you know, the government will order another BB7 to replace it,
14:17
the answer is no, because they've actually moved on to
14:19
another design. And so it seems, it appears that
14:23
they're working on another, you know, another design for the
14:28
government. So take what you will from that.
14:31
I don't know if that means perhaps like another government
14:34
shows in in, you know, in actual, you know, consolation,
14:38
separate consolation might be in order or maybe they're doing
14:40
more testing. And so they moved on to another
14:42
design. And I think that's one of the,
14:47
you know, one of the things about Leo where when you improve
14:50
satellites, you can iterate and you just keep launching these
14:53
things versus, you know, if you launch a satellite to Geo, a lot
14:58
of time and energy. And of course, Geo satellites
15:00
have to be built to be rock solid to survive out in that
15:03
harsh environment. But once you go send one up, if
15:06
it fails, then, you know, that's, that's tough.
15:08
It's pretty hard to recover from that.
15:09
Whereas Leo, when you put a satellite up, if it, if it
15:12
doesn't work out, if it gets put in the wrong orbit, you know,
15:15
you bring it down. And, and of course you, you have
15:18
a, a, you know, you have a bunch of other planned, right.
15:23
And so as you, for example, iterate and you make more
15:27
satellites, you know, you can adjust these things or improve
15:31
them. And so, but what I was saying
15:36
before about Blue Origin not meeting, meeting certification,
15:39
I believe that this means that U.S. government won't be using
15:43
Blue Origin until they can meet certification.
15:46
And so I think they'll have to, yeah, I think they have to apply
15:50
two more successful missions. And So what ironically, that
15:53
actually frees up more Blue Origin capacity, which after
15:58
today, I know there's plenty of people are like, well, I don't
16:01
want to use Blue Origin, but I think it's important to
16:03
understand that this company's gone a long way.
16:06
Like they, they obviously have demonstrated now this successful
16:11
launch and landing of two first stage boosters.
16:13
And then of course, we have this second stage issue which they
16:17
are going to fix, right? I think who could pointed out
16:20
that, you know, with, with Jeff Bezos's backing the company and
16:25
this is part of Theodore's process.
16:27
Like they, they, they will learn from this and they will improve
16:32
the performance of the second stage.
16:34
Now of course, like that calls into question, you know, would
16:37
you send up a batch of 6 Bluebirds or 8 Bluebirds on a
16:42
blue, Blue Origin New Glen even though they haven't demonstrated
16:46
successful delivery of FM2BB7. And the answer is probably no.
16:53
I think you would wait for another commercial payload to go
16:56
up successfully before you would go.
16:58
And so recall that there's an STA or any existence for New New
17:05
Glen 4, New Glen 5 and New Glen 6.
17:08
And those are expected to, you know, after, after this, this
17:13
investigation is done, those those three are going to fly
17:16
next. And I believe one of them was
17:19
for lunar Lander, which I'm, I'm guessing that's going to get
17:21
delayed based off of what happened today.
17:24
My guess is that the next payload that is going to go up
17:28
is going to be a payload of Leo, you know, the old Kiper, but
17:31
Amazon Leo satellites. So that will go up next.
17:33
And then if that's successful, then you're probably going to
17:36
see, you know at that .6 Bluebirds go up.
17:41
But remember the next the next launches that we actually have
17:46
are the next two are going to be on Falcon 9.
17:49
And so, so I think the timing of exactly when Blue Origin will
17:55
have New Glen ready will actually be kind of spot on.
18:00
You know, after if you assume like a 2 month investigation and
18:03
that gets done and and they launch Amazon Leo a batch there,
18:08
then we would be after that. Then that would come after, you
18:13
know, that might actually come right after we've already
18:16
launched 2 Falcon nines of 6 Bluebirds in total.
18:20
So that might actually work out OK.
18:23
However, so that's, that's like in a positive scenario, but in a
18:27
negative scenario, or if things got really negative, let's say
18:30
the origin is grounded for a longer period of time due to,
18:34
you know, something more a, a more critical issue that has
18:38
been uncovered and say the investigation last longer and
18:41
you know, maybe it takes more time to fix then.
18:44
And that could push, you know, launch cadence further back,
18:47
right? Because in the end, you know, we
18:51
can backfill more Falcon 9 launches, but each Falcon 9 can
18:54
only carry 3 Bluebirds versus 6 to 8 for New Glen.
19:00
And so if New Glen is offline for, I don't know, the rest of
19:03
the year, then that could be, that could impact obviously the
19:08
target to hopefully get to, you know, 4545 satellites by the end
19:14
of the year. So that would be the negative
19:17
scenario, right? Like ASD, they can buy more
19:19
Falcon Nines, but then it's more expensive number one than #2
19:23
getting to your near term goals is going to be tougher, just
19:25
given that, you know, it just can't carry as many as, as, as
19:30
New Glenn. So the other thing that was
19:33
negative today is, you know, the changing guidance.
19:35
So as of maybe 2 weeks ago or so, I think the company was kind
19:40
of telling institutional investors because this is what
19:42
I'd heard. And then also, yeah, it got some
19:44
level confirmation that they were hoping to have the first
19:50
batch done by the end of April. And then of course today with
19:55
the release they said 30 days from now they will have their
20:00
first back. So that puts us basically like
20:02
mid-May or May 19th or so. And so that, that timeline is
20:07
obviously slipped by two to three weeks, which is I think
20:11
for people who you know, obviously the stock has has come
20:16
down because of market and and of course racket and selling and
20:21
all these other things. And then and then you.
20:24
And by the way, like Rakuten, as I mentioned before, like they're
20:27
not on the board, they don't have material non public
20:29
information. They're in financial, you know,
20:33
they have financial issues. So they had to sell for their
20:35
own reasons. But you know that leading up to
20:39
then, of course, you know, what would have been a positive
20:41
event, which is Bluebird 7 deploying successfully now that
20:45
it hasn't deployed successfully, now that now you've got some
20:49
downward pressure on the sock. And then of course, like the
20:52
company is talking about the first batch taking a bit longer.
20:56
So 30 days from now, if you, if you say like that's May 19th,
20:59
then you're probably looking at the first Falcon 9 launch being,
21:03
call it the second-half of June. And the, the next Falcon launch
21:08
right after that is probably the first half of June or sorry,
21:11
first half of July. And so that puts it, that puts
21:15
on a pretty tight time frame. You know, I think the company of
21:18
course originally was saying 45 to 60 satellites and then 45
21:22
satellites. And then today they kind of
21:24
soften language a bit. They said approximately 45
21:26
satellites. So I think that's probably a
21:28
stretch goal. My guess is like if everything
21:31
goes right, they could possibly get to 45.
21:34
But I would, my expectations would be that you're probably
21:37
looking at something, you know, under just under 45.
21:41
Like if it's 40 or 41 or 42, you know, we'll see.
21:44
But but yeah, I mean, that's just, I think obviously there's
21:48
some people who are who are upset about that.
21:53
And of course it's frustrating, right?
21:55
Because after you have this, this event where your launch
21:59
provider, you know, doesn't get your payload to orbit and then
22:04
of course, you know, the company, it's taking longer to
22:08
get that purchase batch done, then I think, yeah, people are
22:12
going to be upset. And I will say, like, I
22:15
understand people's, you know, looking online there, there's a
22:20
lot of people who are exasperated and they're upset
22:23
about obviously the launch. You know, why, why did we go to
22:26
Blue Origin? Why, why did you know, why is
22:32
the company, why is it taking so long for the first batch?
22:35
And as I said before, like it's, I think it takes a certain kind
22:39
of crazy to be a space investor because if you look across any
22:43
of the companies, whether it's SpaceX, you know, Blue Origin,
22:48
AST Space Mobile, Rocket Lab, Intuitive Machines, I mean, any
22:52
number of companies like there's going to be delays, right?
22:56
And that's part of this dynamic of putting forward the most
23:01
optimistic projections internally and externally,
23:03
because you want people to work against that timeline
23:06
understanding that they will slip most likely, right?
23:09
And so I think in the history of this company, obviously what
23:13
they've accomplished is amazing. And I think sometimes, you know,
23:16
when the when Cook talks about price, nothing moves sentiment
23:20
more than price. When the price is doing well,
23:21
people remember the good things. And then when when you have a
23:25
negative event like today, where obviously it's it's out of the
23:27
company's hands, but then, you know, lopped onto that, it's
23:30
like, OK, well, the first batch is going to take a bit longer.
23:33
People lose it, right? And they get upset.
23:35
And for the people who have been investor of the company for a
23:40
really long time, this is not something new.
23:44
It's just part of it's just part of being invested in space and
23:48
you've got to have patience and understand, you know, for a
23:52
company that's solving really difficult problems, you know, is
23:57
it something chronic and is there something in the Ferris?
23:59
Like is a company doing things where they're just outright
24:04
lying or do they actually believe what they're projecting?
24:07
And then ultimately things go sideways or they come up there,
24:11
they find problems and it takes longer.
24:14
And I think if you're in the camp that you think the
24:17
company's lying, you think like they're, they're not
24:22
trustworthy, then I have news for you, you should not be
24:25
invested in this company. And that goes for any public
24:27
company or private company. Like if you do due diligence and
24:31
you meet with management and you feel like you can't trust the
24:35
person that you're sitting across from, like perhaps
24:38
they're just not, you know, maybe they have no morals,
24:40
right? Then you should definitely not
24:42
invest in that company 'cause you're, at the end of the day,
24:46
like you're investing with management.
24:47
And so with AC Space Mobile, for example, I have a high degree of
24:52
confidence and belief in both Abelle Scott and the rest of the
24:55
team. But I also recognize like what
24:58
they're doing has never been done before and it's really
25:00
hard. And today was a stark reminder
25:02
of why. It's hard, right?
25:05
Like you can do a lot of things right and something that's out
25:08
of your hands goes wrong and that's it.
25:11
Like you lose a satellite. That sucks.
25:14
And there's there's also like, you know the when when something
25:20
like this happens today, you you have this extra appreciation for
25:24
a company like SpaceX with Falcon 9.
25:25
It's like, wow, they've done this a lot.
25:27
And whenever you've gone to launch Blue Walker three or the
25:32
block 1 satellites, like there's not this, obviously, you know
25:35
that things can go wrong, but it's almost like flying a plane,
25:39
which I mean, I'll, I'll talk about my experience going flying
25:42
back home today. But, but when you're using
25:47
SpaceX, you feel pretty confident.
25:49
I mean, for Falcon 9, No, Starship is different because
25:51
obviously they're, they're still iterating that like they're not
25:53
going to take up commercial payloads anytime soon.
25:56
But but when you're on Falcon 9, like you understand the risk,
25:59
but you're also, you're also betting on that, that vehicle
26:04
because of its, its flight history and it's been very
26:06
successful. And eventually the Origin will
26:08
get there in Israel, for example, LVM three, you know,
26:11
they've had 9 successful launches and that that platform
26:15
has been very great versus some of their other platforms which
26:20
have had recent failures, right? And so as with any of these
26:26
things, like there can be things that go wrong.
26:28
And with Blue Origin, they're eventually going to get there.
26:32
And they've given given what they've accomplished so far, it
26:38
seems like the rate of change for them is in the right
26:40
direction. But but obviously they've got,
26:42
you know, quite a bit more to learn.
26:45
But yeah, so I think besides obviously Bluebird 7 not getting
26:52
to orbit and then happening to be deorbited the guidance change
26:57
where they're 30 days to the first batch from from today like
27:03
that, that was a big change. And then of course, you know,
27:07
the softening of the language around 45 satellites, which I
27:09
think, you know, if everything goes right, they could still get
27:13
there. But I would say that's probably
27:16
lower probability. And so the question now is like,
27:18
do they get to 3830940142? Who knows, right?
27:23
Like, but it's going to depend on things that they don't have a
27:29
handle on just yet, which is for Blue Origin, New Glen.
27:34
Once you get more information about what happened, is it a
27:37
minor fix or is it a major fix then then they'll probably have
27:40
better color around that. I would point out, I think
27:43
earnings for the company are going to be in the next actually
27:48
let me look here. So Q1 earnings update is going
27:56
to be sometime May 12th. So by then like we will get an
28:00
update about that first batch. Maybe it happens to coincide
28:04
with earnings, but, but yeah, that's when I, I saw some people
28:08
posting like, well, there's no catalyst.
28:10
There's nothing possible look forward to.
28:11
Well, there is. I mean, it's, it's another, you
28:14
know, it's another 30 days, but you've got the first batch
28:18
coming and of course another launch.
28:20
And so, yeah, the stock's in that, you know, the stock
28:23
rightfully should be down. Is it overdone?
28:26
I think SPAC man posted a pretty good write up about how you know
28:33
this losing 1 satellite in the grand scheme of things, if
28:36
you're doing like ADCF analysis and you know, the financial
28:40
impact it, it could be two, three, 4%.
28:43
But of course, the market in terms of sentiment, we'll, we'll
28:45
take the stock down further. And part of that, of course, is
28:47
the uncertainty around Blue Origin New Glen, like does that,
28:51
does that vehicle go through a long review process and and fix
28:57
or is it a pretty short 1? And so that's going to that
29:01
obviously is going to impact, you know, your ability to to
29:05
meet the target for 40, call it 4045 satellites out in the year.
29:09
So those are the negatives. And I think that's what
29:14
everybody pretty much is focused on right now.
29:15
And, and obviously on Twitter and I haven't even looked at
29:18
Reddit, but you have people who are rightfully upset and are,
29:26
you know, emotionally, you know, in a bad place.
29:29
And they're lashing out at, at the company to some degree.
29:32
They're lashing out Blue Origin, which at least for me, like I'm
29:37
not, I'm not upset with Blue Origin.
29:39
It sucks. And it's not like they, they,
29:43
their engineers went out and we're like, hey, we're gonna,
29:46
we're, we're, we're gonna try to fail here.
29:49
They have every incentive to be successful here, right, 'cause
29:53
like we're paying customer. And then on top of that, you
29:57
know, this was a certification flight for them to do government
29:59
work and they failed. So, so they're going to go back
30:03
to the drawing board and figure out what went wrong.
30:05
Hopefully they'll they'll find it quickly and and you know,
30:08
we'll see another Blue origin New Glenn for which will likely
30:12
my guess is take a group of Amazon Leo satellites up and and
30:16
see hopefully that will be, you know, successful but moving on.
30:20
So what are the positives, if any, from today?
30:24
Well, I think for those people who follow space closely, in
30:29
any, any launch that has some degree of success, there's going
30:33
to be or even complete failures, there's going to be learnings,
30:36
right? And so from Blue Origin, New
30:39
Glen, you know, with any rocket program, you're going to push
30:43
what's possible and learn and improve.
30:45
And so from the failure of the second stage, you know, it
30:49
sounds like it did get pretty far.
30:51
They, they got a initial burn and then they coasted and then
30:54
unfortunately the second burn didn't happen.
30:56
They'll learn from that and they'll figure out what went
30:58
wrong and they'll make improvements and they'll
31:03
hopefully get it the next time right.
31:05
And so that that's a positive. Another positive is that AST
31:09
learned something today. Obviously, you know, in
31:14
particular FM 2 was a test satellite.
31:16
As I mentioned before, it was a is one of two test satellites.
31:20
And so from where I understand FM 2 was a backup to FM 1.
31:22
So if the Israel FM 1 failed, ironically, then FM 2 was going
31:26
to get backup. But in in fact, Israel and FM 1
31:30
was a success and then it ended up being Blue Origin FM 2, you
31:36
know, failing to reach orbit. And so that said, like, you
31:40
know, the company with the data, we'll learn from this.
31:42
And obviously the next satellites are going to be much
31:46
lighter than FM 2. They're they're composites.
31:49
And so, you know, does the company make some changes or is
31:53
there perhaps, you know, this change in timing for batch?
31:58
This is me speculating, by the way.
32:00
You know, are they gonna make some adjustments to the
32:02
satellites where perhaps like, oh, maybe we'll put some extra
32:05
propellant. And so if we're ever in a
32:07
situation like this where there's a failure in a second
32:12
burn, then, you know, because it's a lighter satellite and if
32:16
you add more propellant or maybe additional thrusters, maybe
32:20
there is a contingency plan where you can save these things,
32:23
right. And so, but these are, you know,
32:26
learning about future mitigation is probably going to be a big
32:30
focus for them too. And so as they think about, you
32:36
know, different scenarios, this is going to be an important case
32:40
study for them and something for them to be prepared for next
32:44
time if it, you know, unfortunately, if it does happen
32:46
again. The other thing is that AST and
32:49
Blue Origin, they learned to work together for the first
32:52
time. So integrating a payload, I
32:55
think it was referred to one of one of the ASD employees, I
33:00
think Kevin Chen had a poster or someone, but they talked about
33:03
how it was a huge learning curve in terms of interfacing with
33:08
origin. There was a lot.
33:10
There was, you know, hundreds of hours put into integrating, you
33:15
know, Bluebird 7 into Blue Origins fairing and, you know,
33:20
obviously making sure all the systems work and and I'm sure,
33:23
you know, I obviously the company went through the same
33:25
thing with Israel as well. But when you do that, you go
33:28
through it the first time that puts, you know, steps and
33:32
processes in place where the next time will be faster.
33:35
And so that's another, you know, experience that's gained.
33:40
And so that's another positive. I would also say, you know, this
33:45
is only a cat, say point out, pointed out, you know, Bluebird
33:48
6 and Bluebird Seven were also, you know, satellites that were
33:54
used to help stand up production lines.
33:55
And so by building Bluebird 6 and Bluebird 7, we actually
33:59
learned how to build this next generation of spacecraft.
34:03
And so out of that process, you know, we got government work.
34:09
Bluebird 6 obviously was successful and it's operating
34:11
nominally and it's meeting, you know the contract requirements
34:17
that were laid out from whether it was SDADIU Department of
34:22
Defense. And I understand, I don't think
34:25
the failure of BB7 impacts those as it was a backup.
34:29
So you know, the benefit of obviously getting having BB 6
34:35
and standing up the production line to build BB789101112,
34:41
that's a positive. Let's see another thing there
34:46
have been some questions about this, but we did insure this
34:49
satellite because you know it was a backup and it was on a new
34:52
vehicle. So I believe the company insured
34:55
this satellite for more than what it cost to build.
34:59
Cause for I understand you can actually depending on how much
35:03
premium you're willing to pay just like any you know home
35:06
insurance you can over insure your house, we can under insure
35:09
it and I believe the company over insured it so so they will
35:13
get reimbursed for it. That said, they will not get
35:16
reimbursed for launch. But why?
35:18
I understand it is customary in the industry where if you do
35:25
lose a if you do lose a launch, then you typically are credited
35:31
for another one. And so in a weird way this could
35:35
be by getting credited another Blue Origin launch.
35:40
This one was taking up 1 satellite.
35:41
But in the future, you know, obviously when when the vehicle
35:44
is stable and more developed, the future when it will carry
35:48
six or eight of these things. So in some respects, yeah,
35:50
there's actually have a tiny or not a tiny, but an economic
35:54
benefit. But they will get credit for it.
35:59
Let's see. As I mentioned before, I did ask
36:02
like, you know, would it make sense to make another Bluebird
36:07
7? Like will the government need
36:08
it? And it sounds like they've
36:11
actually moved on to the next design for the government.
36:13
So, so yeah, because BB 6 is successful, you know, that's
36:19
fulfilled the mission requirements and then apparently
36:22
there's more work going on and they moved on to the next
36:24
generation. So those are kind of the
36:28
positives related to this. I guess I'll, I'll talk about a
36:32
few other things first, just as a reminder, 'cause sometimes,
36:37
like when you're in this negative, you know, doom, doom
36:41
spiral, you kind of forget like why you own something and, and
36:45
what the next callus are. And, and if you like, listen to
36:48
some of the read some of the what people are putting to for
36:52
engagement farming. It's like there's no catalyst
36:55
for the next, you know, 30 days or 60 days.
36:59
Well, just a reminder, you know, supplemental from supplemental
37:03
coverage from space, that FCC application should be approved
37:07
at any day now. So you know, I, I don't know the
37:11
exact timing of it, but we're well overdue.
37:13
And as I mentioned before, Chairman Carr talked about this
37:17
being a three player market and specifically talked about ASTC
37:20
poll. So clearly it's top of mind and
37:24
that could that could come. And if Chair Carr was like a
37:27
generous guy, he would approve this on Monday, just give him
37:30
everything that's going on. But who knows, but it's coming.
37:35
I went in, you know, may bet the May batch shipment is
37:39
unfortunate in terms of it being delayed, but it's also a May
37:42
batch shipment, which is, you know, two to three weeks from
37:46
now according to the company. So, so yeah, it's not that far
37:50
off. Let's see, as I mentioned
37:53
before, you know, we've got earnings update which will be at
37:58
least Bloomberg is saying May 12th.
38:00
And so that's not far off. And you know, we'll get quite a
38:04
few updates from them in regards to like various programs that
38:07
are going on. And and so that's what we look
38:10
forward to. The other thing, of course is
38:12
that if the Maybach shipment happens, then that means that
38:16
Falcon 9 launch is probably going to happen in June.
38:18
So that'd be another launch. Look forward to less drama, more
38:24
boring, which brings good. But I, I did see some people
38:28
saying, you know, oh, you guys messed up.
38:30
You should have booked this with with SpaceX and it's like, well,
38:35
we are booked with SpaceX and so I don't know what what what the
38:39
issue or what the point was there.
38:41
But anyway, I guess a few Nuggets or 1 nugget that was
38:46
interesting. So a few of us, this is for a a
38:51
little bit of opium. A few of us have actually met up
38:56
with Michael Pollock, who runs the government business and he
39:00
didn't say anything in terms of material, non public
39:03
information, but he he was happy to meet space mob.
39:06
And you know, he talked specifically about the fact that
39:11
he's working on a number of really great things that we
39:14
would be very happy with and that his job is to, you know,
39:19
from A and for those that don't know, like he, he deals with
39:22
government programs and so all the work around the fence, SDA
39:25
stuff like that, that that that's kind of under his
39:27
purview. But but yeah, he was very
39:30
bullish and positive on what's in the hopper and what's coming
39:34
soon. But obviously he didn't tell us
39:37
anything. But, you know, he was all smiles
39:39
and and we were quite happy. But then on the flip side, you
39:43
know, FM 1 and FM two, FM 2, which is BB7, the fact that we
39:48
lost that satellite, I think someone it's all him at a 8A bar
39:53
later, because I think he was out for a flight too.
39:55
And, and this is before the formal announcement went out.
39:57
But it was pretty clear he was he was sad about the fact that,
40:01
you know, the satellite didn't reach orbit.
40:03
And so, yeah, I mean, I think I think it's important to take a
40:07
step back and, you know, recognize like all the work that
40:11
the people at ASD Space Mobile and Blue Origin had put into
40:15
this mission, whether it was the satellite, whether it was the
40:19
New Glen. You know, rocket, but also
40:21
integrating the 2 and so to lose, lose the payload is a
40:26
pretty big deal, right? And I think from like if you and
40:29
I feel bad about it, imagine the people who put hundreds of hours
40:32
into it and especially, you know, if you're an HD space
40:37
mobile employee, all that work like it's down the drain, it's
40:40
gone. But of course, you know, you
40:42
can't think that way. You got to that what FM 2 was
40:46
all the hours and time that we're, you know, resources that
40:50
were put into it. Like that was already done, like
40:52
they're already working on Bluebird 89101112 and and so on.
40:59
And so you know, you've got to let go of it and just keep
41:02
moving forward, right? And I think for Blue Origin, I
41:07
think So what was it? Someone mentioned that they had
41:10
at the year where they'd run into one of the employees and
41:12
they seemed pretty well. They they were happy obviously
41:14
that the Brewster was successful, but they were quite
41:16
sad that the mission, the payload didn't wasn't delivered.
41:20
And and so, yeah, it was mixed for them, right?
41:23
And they feel obviously bad about losing a customer payload.
41:28
And that I think also, you know, there's been some criticisms on
41:35
on Twitter, like how perhaps the Blue Origin execs maybe didn't
41:41
come out and apologize or, or say this or that.
41:44
The other. I think it's a bit early for
41:45
that, right? Like, obviously there, there's
41:50
an investigation that's going to happen and there's they're under
41:54
some types of restrictions, right?
41:55
And so you probably don't want to say anything until you know
41:59
exactly what had happened. And then, and my guess is I, I
42:03
don't know if they've, they know exactly what have happened, what
42:06
has happened. And, and you'd want to do that
42:09
hat in hand to go to the and you know, I'm sure that they've
42:12
apologized to a bell and Scott, but let's do that publicly.
42:17
You know, it's, I guess they could do it, but also, you know,
42:22
what, what does that, what does that buy them?
42:25
Right? Like they're going to apologize
42:27
publicly to ASTS public shareholders or to the general
42:32
public. You know, it's, it's a concern
42:35
Like they, excuse me, they lost, they lost the second stage.
42:40
And they'll probably make some type of statement at the perfect
42:42
time. But at this point they don't
42:43
know what happened, right? So I would just give them some
42:47
leeway, let them figure it out. And you know, I'm sure they'll,
42:50
they'll come up with a statement and apologize.
42:52
But at this point, I don't know, it's just taking a step back.
42:58
Like I think it's kind of telling when you have something
43:00
like this happens and you kind of look and see what people's
43:04
reactions are as whether they're investors or they're from the
43:07
outside looking in or, you know, there's like I saw today, here's
43:14
a good example. I saw someone posting about like
43:17
how FM 2, the satellite's too heavy and they should be using
43:22
lighter solar panels 'cause then you wouldn't have an anomaly
43:25
like this. And it's like, and then they're
43:27
recommending a stock and it's like, really, come on.
43:29
Like it's too number one, it's too soon for that.
43:32
Number two, you have no idea what you're talking about.
43:34
Like this satellite was heavy because it's serving a specific
43:38
test mission. And yeah, I guess you could use
43:42
lighter solar panels to that maybe could have helped it with
43:48
the proper thrusters. It could have got to the right,
43:50
right, you know, right orbit. But that's just not the mission
43:54
of what the satellite is is built for.
43:56
But you're not. People come in and tell you
43:59
like, you know, I sold at 90 or 100.
44:04
I knew this was coming or I, I, I'm a good trader and I took
44:08
profits and I always do that because something like this
44:12
could happen. And it's like, guys come on.
44:15
Like I saw the same people riding shit like that when it
44:18
was at 12 and then it pulled back to 9.
44:21
When is that 20? It pulled back to, you know,
44:24
actually when it was at 20, it didn't really pull back.
44:26
But when it went to like 39 and then it pulled back to like, you
44:30
know, 2223, there was a lot of I told you so's or yeah, I mean,
44:36
there's like, people are pretty ugly too.
44:37
Like there's this guy coming out and saying like I'm a scammer.
44:41
And so he was like you, you said that the company was going to
44:46
have a batch ready by the end of April.
44:49
And then they came out today and they said, you know, in 30 days.
44:53
And it's like, yeah, I was wrong.
44:55
As of two weeks ago, it was, it was my working assumption that
44:59
the batch would be ready. And based off of how things were
45:04
going, I thought that that was going to be true, but I was
45:06
wrong. And and so does that make me a
45:09
scammer? What am I scamming?
45:11
Like what? I guess over the years, maybe
45:14
there's like some people who aren't familiar with with the I
45:18
guess my history with this company and my investment.
45:21
But I will say this like over the fat over the five to six
45:25
years, like, yeah, I've been wrong on a lot of things.
45:28
I've been right on some things. And fortunately I've been right
45:31
enough where the stock has worked out.
45:34
But you know, for people, and this, this is coming from a guy
45:38
who I don't think is the ASD investor.
45:41
They claimed they were like they're, they're making these
45:43
posts where they're like, I, I'm selling all my ASD shares and
45:46
I'm buying this other stock because they're, they're like
45:48
pushing this other stock. And I guess they're doing it in
45:51
a period of time when people are are feeling vulnerable, which
45:55
there's like a few accounts out there that will like try to
45:59
pressure you to buy something. And especially like if your
46:03
stock is down, it's like, see, I told you or like, oh, the Rocket
46:06
Lab AST space mobile flip flipping is happening.
46:09
Rocket Lab's going to be higher than ASTI told you so.
46:11
And it's like, yeah, I I think people kind of revel in others
46:16
misery and I think we're all guilty of it to some degree.
46:19
You know, it's like if you see a stock that you were looking at
46:22
before and you decide to pass, then it goes down.
46:24
It's like, ha ha, I see I was right.
46:26
You buy that kind of attitude. But yeah, it's like pretty, some
46:32
people are pretty toxic about it.
46:34
And you know what? I, I'm, I'm not, I don't let
46:38
that get to me. Because like this weekend when I
46:41
went down, of course, before everything happened, but even
46:44
after everything happened, people were super friendly and
46:48
generous and gracious with each other.
46:50
We were just happy to, to hang out and meet each other.
46:53
And I think part of it is like when you go through this journey
46:55
where you have a high conviction in in a stock and you've, you
46:59
know, you've ridden the highs and ridden the lows together.
47:02
That's a very unique bond. It's not like something where
47:05
you know, you have camaraderie with Co workers or even friends
47:10
in college or whatever it is, right?
47:11
Like having going through the financial ups and downs and
47:14
going through the psychological, you know, the psychological
47:20
testing that that occurs. It doesn't, I don't know, it
47:24
builds a very unique type of relationship with people,
47:27
especially like when obviously when you come out of that and
47:29
you're successful. And so when I was at, when I was
47:32
at the, the launch event, like there were people coming up to
47:35
me. I, I guess they kind of figured
47:36
it out, but they, they were coming up to me, you know,
47:40
thanking me for all these years of helping them, you know,
47:44
understand the investment and then having conviction to stick
47:46
with it. And to me that was like the most
47:49
rewarding experience of it all right.
47:51
Where over the years, like I've gotten emails from people or
47:55
chats and people talking about their unique personal
47:58
experiences of how this company has changed their lives and, and
48:02
obviously it's a high risk investment, right?
48:04
And so having the ability to, you know, do your own due
48:10
diligence, listen to others as well to give you different
48:13
perspectives. But at the end of the day, it's
48:15
like your choice, right? Like you, you're the one who
48:18
pulls the trigger, who buy shares or may sell shares, But
48:22
for a lot of you, it's like you bought and you went through the
48:26
ups and downs and you held with conviction.
48:28
And through all that period of time, you know, the emotional
48:35
strain of like, oh, I should have sold here.
48:37
I should have bought here. You know, it's, it's like the,
48:40
those stories where people say the best investors are those who
48:44
die and they just hold the shares into perpetuity.
48:46
And, and then, you know, I guess their estate does well because
48:50
they, those people just never thought about it, right, Because
48:55
they, they passed away. And so, you know, if the person
48:57
that held NVIDIA, they would have been or they did, they did
49:01
hold it, but you know, they made a ton of money.
49:03
But but I think in the case of AST, you know, we have this
49:08
unique, unique bond and, and it's tough.
49:11
It's tough. Like today, I'm seeing all these
49:13
comments of people just totally reveling in, in the fact that
49:18
the stock is down. And it's like I told you about
49:22
this company, you know, there there's, it's like the old tired
49:27
tropes of, of, you know, how, how the company's risky and, and
49:33
all these, all these, like all the FUD comes back out like, oh,
49:36
how are they going to compete against SpaceX And, and what
49:39
about this Amazon news? And it's just like, guys, I've,
49:41
I've seen it all. Like, I'm not, I'm not swayed by
49:44
any of it. I know that it's hard.
49:47
And yeah, the company's going to get through it.
49:50
This is 1 satellite. It wasn't their fault.
49:52
There's one satellite that they lost out of what will be, what,
49:55
2300 eventually. Yeah, it's going to happen.
49:59
And thank God it, I mean, I guess another of lining is like,
50:03
and people will say like, oh, that's scoping, but it's true.
50:05
It's like, thank God Blue Origin, you know, is working out
50:08
with the kinks now. We lost one satellite.
50:10
It was a test satellite for SDA and it wasn't a critical
50:14
satellite. But yeah, we're going to pick up
50:17
and move on, right? Like we're already building, we
50:20
can't even worry about the fact that we lost Bluebird 7.
50:22
Like we already have 8-9 and ten that are being worked on
50:26
11/12/13 and, and up to 30 by 32 right now.
50:31
And that, that 32 number in terms of production is, is
50:34
microns, right. But we, you know, we, we have
50:38
the composite rings, I guess seven were delivered last week.
50:43
And so that would be 14151617181920.
50:47
And so Bluebird 7 through, sorry, Bluebird 14 through 20
50:53
are currently going through integration or, or eventually
50:56
will go to through integration. So, so yeah, I mean, today
51:01
sucks. There's no, no, no sugar
51:03
coating. And there are going to be days
51:06
like this, right, where you're going to have setbacks.
51:08
And if you're an investor in a space company, it's, it's
51:12
typical, I think someone you know, it's not, it's not a name
51:15
that I followed closely, but obviously everyone knows like
51:18
intuitive Machines, where not only did they, and this is
51:21
intuitive machines fault, they, they, they tipped the Lander,
51:24
they tipped a second Lander. And you would think like that
51:29
would have been kind of the end of the ropes for the company,
51:31
right? Like it went from low 20s to
51:35
traded down to I think it like 6650 or so.
51:40
And that was in, that was in March of 2025, whereas now it's
51:45
hitting an all time high of like 2750 or so.
51:49
So yeah, this stuff happens whether it's in your control
51:53
with which was intuitive machines like some parts of that
51:56
were in their control, maybe perhaps some others weren't.
51:59
But then, yeah, for today, it wasn't in our control.
52:04
Like we Origin unfortunately didn't have a the, you know,
52:09
they had a mishap on the second stage and they're going to go
52:12
back to the drawing board and fix it.
52:14
And we're going to, you know, tomorrow the, the employees at
52:19
AC Suis and Mobile, we're going to wake up.
52:20
I mean, there's, there's a night shift working right now and
52:23
they're going to cater to work on that first batch.
52:24
They're going to get it out. And, you know, I think as we all
52:28
know, like in production hell, it takes time to get things
52:32
right. But as you iterate, you get
52:34
better and you get, you get faster, just like whether that
52:37
was at SpaceX or Tesla or any number of companies.
52:40
And so that's just part of the process.
52:43
So anyway, I am you just take take a look and see if there's
52:49
any questions. By the way, I'm it's starting to
52:52
hit me. I'm getting tired again.
52:54
But let's see, let's let me go through some of these questions.
52:58
So can SpaceX Starship save our cadence?
53:02
When Starship becomes operational in 2027, it could
53:05
fit more than 12 satellites on one lunch.
53:08
Conceptually, yeah, it could. I think it once it's operational
53:13
in 2027, they could use SpaceX Starship.
53:15
But I think the company for for business planning purposes, they
53:22
want to have, you know, a diversity of, of, of suppliers,
53:26
right? And so they're using Falcon
53:28
9:00. They have Israel.
53:30
Of course they are. They put a lot of big bets on
53:34
Blue Origin, New Glenn. So obviously, yeah, we should
53:37
all be rooting for that platform.
53:40
But can they use Starship? Yeah, they could, but I'm not
53:43
sure. I mean, ultimately Starship, I
53:48
guess in, in when, if they're going to put up commercial
53:51
payloads, they, they have to, I guess they're going to have some
53:54
type of configuration where it's not just like the Pez dispenser,
53:58
'cause obviously we can't use this Pez dispenser.
54:03
And so, yeah, I think Starship could take our, our, our
54:08
satellites up and would be very cost effective.
54:10
But just as this person points out, like could Starship save
54:15
our cadence? Starship also has to become
54:20
successful, right? Like they're, they're going
54:21
through iterations too. And so someone had said to me
54:25
today, I think it was maybe was saying, you know, if, if we were
54:29
doing it public and they went through this, if the, if the
54:34
stock was public and they went through what had happened today,
54:37
like how much would the stock be down?
54:39
And my response to them was like, oh, I think the origin
54:41
might be down like 7 percent, 5% because the reuse of the, the
54:47
first stage booster was a big deal, right?
54:50
A reused booster that a refers booster.
54:52
And so, yeah, the second stage anomaly is not great, but
54:55
they'll probably fix it. But it's, it's kind of accepted,
54:58
right? Like when you have rocket
55:00
failures, you're going to learn from them and it's part of the
55:03
process. And I think for Rocket Lab, like
55:06
I hope to God that Neutron goes off without hitch.
55:08
But if they experience, you know, an issue and it's not
55:13
successful, I, I, I wouldn't expect Rocket Lab to go down 20%
55:17
or something like that. I think people are going to have
55:20
reasonable expectations that any new program like that is going
55:24
to have setbacks. They're going to wins and
55:27
setbacks and delays. So.
55:30
So yeah, let's see, let's see Arthur saying there were, there
55:37
were supposed to be new agreement signed and announced
55:39
next week from SATCO, I think. So the head of of Satellite
55:44
Europe, Satellite Connect Europe said that they are working on
55:47
some new agreements, but I don't I don't think they gave a sense
55:50
of timing, but they said that they're working on the IT could
55:54
be new or it could be coming soon.
55:57
So I don't think they said like next week, let's see when the
56:04
going gets tough, the tough get going.
56:06
Yes, absolutely CEO lids. I feel like if you're invested
56:14
in space sector, you need to accept delays.
56:16
Literally 0 space companies hit their long term St. milestones
56:18
on time. Yes, 100%.
56:21
Like if you if you want to invest in a company that hits
56:26
milestones and deadlines and forecasts, you should not invest
56:30
in SpaceX, don't invest in Rock Lab, don't invest in AST
56:34
intuitive machines, Voyager, any of these companies, right?
56:38
Because there's always going to be delays, whether it's in the
56:41
company's hands or not. That's just the nature of the
56:45
beast, right? Like that's why companies like
56:49
Google and Meta and you know, Open AI, all these companies,
56:54
they don't do stuff in space because it's hard, right?
56:58
So if you're invested in space, yeah, you've got, you've got to
57:04
accept the fact that there will be delays.
57:07
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