Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Full Episode - Tuesday Was A REALLY Good Night For Democrats + Can A Democrat Win Statewide In Florida?

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Full Episode - Tuesday Was A REALLY Good Night For Democrats + Can A Democrat Win Statewide In Florida? · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 2: Well.
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  Speaker 1: I am coming to you very early on Wednesday morning.
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  Speaker 1: Even by the time you do this, I am taping
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: after our election night live stream. For those of you
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: that tuned in, I appreciate it. I get a huge
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: election night obviously, just having California vote, that's a big deal.
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  Speaker 1: That's but New Jersey, Iowa, Montana, South Dakota, New Mexico,
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  Speaker 1: California literally races coast to coast, and look a full
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: disclosure here, We're not going to have any California results
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  Speaker 1: for days. Okay, so we've got some directional ideas of
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  Speaker 1: what's happening in California, but I'm gonna set California aside
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  Speaker 1: here If you, because we don't know what that situation is,
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  Speaker 1: and it could make what I'm about to say completely
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: overshadowed if things go in any different directions in California.
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  Speaker 1: But Tuesday night was a really good night for Democrats nationally.
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  Speaker 1: If Democrats are if if you are the Democratic Party,
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: you are in better shape to win the House on
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Wednesday morning than you were on Tuesday morning. And if
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: you're the Democrats, you're in better shape to win the
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  Speaker 1: Senate on Wednesday morning then you were on Tuesday morning.
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  Speaker 1: And why do I say that, Well, on the House,
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  Speaker 1: it's because of a handful of developments, the biggest being
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: in New Jersey seven. New Jersey seven is home to
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  Speaker 1: Tom Kaine Junior. We still don't know where Tom Kane Jr. Is.
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  Speaker 1: He has not divulged where he is. He has simply
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  Speaker 1: said he will run. Donald Trump endorsed him late in
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  Speaker 1: this process just to make sure he gets the nomination.
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  Speaker 1: The more important development is the Democrats that got the
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  Speaker 1: candidate they wanted. And in this case, that candidate is
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  Speaker 1: a former Navy helicopter pilot. And if that sounds familiar,
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  Speaker 1: you're like, wait, isn't the governor a former helicopter pilot
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  Speaker 1: in the military, and the answers, yes, she is. Well,
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  Speaker 1: so is this candidate, Rebecca Bennett. This was the candidate
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  Speaker 1: that they wanted it to, that the national Democrats were
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  Speaker 1: hoping would win this primary. She won this primary. She'll
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  Speaker 1: be facing off against Tom Kine Junior. Likely. Why do
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  Speaker 1: I say likely, because there's only one other explanation for
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  Speaker 1: how New Jersey, how the Kine family and the New
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: Jersey Republicans have been behaving in this race. There seems
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  Speaker 1: to be he basically, he got out, he went, he disappeared.
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  Speaker 1: We last saw him in early March, a few weeks
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  Speaker 1: before the filing deadline. Filing deadline happened in the end
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  Speaker 1: of March. He didn't get a major primary challenger. Obviously,
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  Speaker 1: had this come out, he might have and he might
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  Speaker 1: not have won this primary. But he's now won this primary.
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  Speaker 1: New Jersey is the easiest state in the Union to
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  Speaker 1: essentially switch nominees after a primary. Democrats have done it
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  Speaker 1: famously in a Senate race Bob Torselli was headed for
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  Speaker 1: defeat and they famously were able to switch candidates. They
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  Speaker 1: got Frank Lautenberg and they were able to save a sendancy.
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  Speaker 1: It's his idle speculation from a few consultants who are
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  Speaker 1: like the old plausible explanation is X. So that's the
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  Speaker 1: only thing I would say to keep an eye on
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  Speaker 1: when New Jersey seven. But the whole larger issue is
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  Speaker 1: this Democrats got the candidate they wanted. They didn't get
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  Speaker 1: somebody that was going to be easily painted as too
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  Speaker 1: far outside the mainstream. Moving to Iowa, they were already
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: before the night began, three house seats there were really
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: major primaries that were you know, there was a primary
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  Speaker 1: to decide to the nominee was going to be in
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  Speaker 1: the seat that Ashley Hinson is vacating to run for
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  Speaker 1: the US Senate. But we knew that three were going
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  Speaker 1: to be competitive, the first, the second, and third. They're
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  Speaker 1: kind of always swing districts in Iowa, those three. But
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  Speaker 1: the fact of the matter is that Democratic statewide ticket
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  Speaker 1: got stronger after tonight. Democrats got the Senate candidate that
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  Speaker 1: Rob san was hoping that they get that national Democrats
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  Speaker 1: were supporting. They threw a bunch of money. Vote Vets
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  Speaker 1: essentially was an unofficial arm of the Senate Democrats in
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  Speaker 1: this campaign. They poured a ton of money in this
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  Speaker 1: race to raise Josh Turick's name. I d at worked.
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  Speaker 1: He swamped Zach Walls. Both of them has stirred in
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  Speaker 1: the state legislature in some ways. Sack Wall started this
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  Speaker 1: race with higher name recognition than Josh Turick. He explicitly
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  Speaker 1: ran an anti Chuck Schumer campaign, and he got thumped tonight.
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  Speaker 1: He lost two to one. But Walls was also running
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  Speaker 1: a more progressive campaign. He was endorsed by Elizabeth Warren.
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  Speaker 1: Josh Turick was endorsed by Tom Harkin, was getting all
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  Speaker 1: of this extra help from Boat Vets. He's potentially a
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  Speaker 1: very strong candidate for the Democrats for Senate. We'll see
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  Speaker 1: Ashley Hinson, the Republican congressman I talked about before he
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  Speaker 1: was vacating that second congressional district. She's also going to
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  Speaker 1: be a very strong Senate candidate. She won quite easily.
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  Speaker 1: She had nominal opposition. But the biggest problem for her
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  Speaker 1: is not the fact that Josh Turk won the nomination,
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  Speaker 1: though she would have preferred running against Zach Walls. The
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  Speaker 1: biggest upset of the night anywhere in anywhere in the
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  Speaker 1: country took place in Iowa was in the Republican primary
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  Speaker 1: for governor where a gentleman by the name of Zach
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  Speaker 1: Lane forged a path in the forged a path in
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  Speaker 1: the Iowa governor's race in an Iowa state wide race
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  Speaker 1: that many an Iowa Conservative has done before. There's always
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  Speaker 1: there's a strong network of what I would refer to
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  Speaker 1: as sort of non establishment Christian conservatives in Iowa. This
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  Speaker 1: is the network that Rick Santorum famously was able to
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  Speaker 1: tap into to tie or win. It all depends on
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  Speaker 1: your point of view of what happened in that infamous
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  Speaker 1: twenty twelve Iowa caucus between Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney.
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  Speaker 1: But it was the pizza ranches and sort of and
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  Speaker 1: there's always been this. It's a very well organized Gary
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  Speaker 1: Bauer back in the day was able to tap into this.
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  Speaker 1: Ted Cruz tapped into this, and this the candidate here
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  Speaker 1: always gets thirty to thirty five percent. I've seen, you know,
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  Speaker 1: there have been other statewide Republicans over the years. Chuck
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  Speaker 1: Grassley had a primary challenge once from somebody from this
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  Speaker 1: wing of the party that was once again able to
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  Speaker 1: get into the mid thirties. But when you have a
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  Speaker 1: crowded primary, the mid thirties are suddenly a winning number,
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  Speaker 1: and that's essentially what happened here. So Zach Lane, running
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  Speaker 1: more sort of a first time candidate, use some of
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  Speaker 1: his own money. His spouse has some money, but also
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  Speaker 1: tapped into the MAHA movement to Make America Healthy Again movement. This,
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  Speaker 1: of course, we learn from the Iowa reporters that we
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  Speaker 1: have in our livestream. And so while Donald Trump came
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  Speaker 1: in very late for Congressman Randy Fiinstro from the fourth
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  Speaker 1: Congressional District, that is the most Republican district in the state.
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  Speaker 1: So in theory, Fienstro was running from what is the
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  Speaker 1: state's Republican base, the fourth Congressional District, mostly in western Iowa,
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  Speaker 1: northwest Iowa, but most of western Iowa. But he's also
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  Speaker 1: known as the guy who defeated Steve King, so he
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  Speaker 1: was the mainstream Republican who came in to get rid
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  Speaker 1: of the far right congressman and Steve King. He endorsed
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  Speaker 1: Ron De Santis during the presidential CAUCUSUS So the fact
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  Speaker 1: that somebody got to the President and convinced him to
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  Speaker 1: do this basically by saying, hey, it's the only way
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  Speaker 1: we could be This was a case where Trump got
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  Speaker 1: talked into being to taking one for the team, to
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  Speaker 1: doing what was best for the party, and that the
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  Speaker 1: National Party folks, both in the Senate side, they didn't,
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  Speaker 1: you know, they said, no, you got to make sure
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  Speaker 1: Fiensture is the nominee here. And it looks like Elaine
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  Speaker 1: decision has projected and Fiatures already already conceded the race.
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  Speaker 1: This Zach Lane won by less than two thousand votes.
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  Speaker 1: But there's a couple of ways to look at this.
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  Speaker 1: First of all, we had Maha versus MAGA. That's fascinating.
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  Speaker 1: That's something that the fact that the Maha movement might
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  Speaker 1: have proved to be stickier, might have proved to be
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  Speaker 1: more of an outsider credential. Right, Mega, you get a
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  Speaker 1: Trump endorsement. Yes it's MAGA, but in some ways it's
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  Speaker 1: an insider credential. But you know, the politics of i
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: are very sort of are sort of in flux at
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  Speaker 1: the moment. Right this is still a right leaning state,
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  Speaker 1: don't get me wrong, but the terifts have done enormous
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  Speaker 1: damage to the agricultural economy. This is also a state
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  Speaker 1: that Donald Trump's never really Yes, he does well in
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  Speaker 1: general elections. I remember he lost the Iowa Coxes when
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  Speaker 1: he ran in twenty sixteen something. He still won't concede
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  Speaker 1: that happened, but it did. The sitting governor endorsed DeSantis.
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  Speaker 1: Randy Feinstrop, basically the leading Republican congressman in the state,
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  Speaker 1: endorsed DeSantis. Jony Ernst was not really a big Trump
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: what you would say. Partner in the Senate, Chuck Grassley
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  Speaker 1: has always felt comfortable criticizing the President on tariffs and
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  Speaker 1: on a few things that he thinks. He also hit
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: him pretty hard on the weaponization fund earlier this week too.
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  Speaker 1: So look, I think it's it's hard to sit here
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  Speaker 1: and say what was the definitive reason why Zach Lane
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  Speaker 1: beat Randy Finstra. But to me, there's a confluence of
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  Speaker 1: events you can tap into. Number One, Randy Finscher's first
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  Speaker 1: name is congressman. And I think just being perceived as
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  Speaker 1: an incumbent not good. As John Covilian said during our
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  Speaker 1: live stream, you know this has been true in a
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  Speaker 1: lot of Republican primaries in general, where incumbents in competitive
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  Speaker 1: Republican primaries, incumbents are usually more in more trouble on
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  Speaker 1: the right side of the oven, on the left side
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  Speaker 1: of the album. We saw that with John Cornyn getting ousted,
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: and now you have Randy Feinstrat And by the way,
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: South Dakota, which is going to feature its first ever
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: run off for governor, had another sitting member of Congress,
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  Speaker 1: a statewide elect official who happened to be a sitting
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: member of Congress, and Dusty Johnson, and it doesn't and
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: it looks like he is going to miss out on
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  Speaker 1: the runoff. Certainly underperformed, so having the last name of
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  Speaker 1: Congressman not being seen as fully mega throw in the tariffs,
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: which yes, is a little bit mad at Trump, but
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: a little bit mad at you're elected officials in general.
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  Speaker 1: So it's just a large stew of discontent in various ways,
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  Speaker 1: and then you just sometimes just campaigns matter. Zach Lane
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  Speaker 1: ran clearly ran a better campaign. He went from zero
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  Speaker 1: to relevant. And it looks like Fainst just sort of
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  Speaker 1: and his team just sort of took this race for granted,
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  Speaker 1: it'll come, it'll happen, it's natural, and it didn't. So
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  Speaker 1: what does this mean Democrats if there's a Gooba natorial
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: nomine in the country that they're more excited about than
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: Rob sand I don't know who it is. Rob Sand
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  Speaker 1: is the only statewide elected Democrat in the state. He
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  Speaker 1: won in twenty twenty two by the skin of his teeth,
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  Speaker 1: but he was able to win even during that big
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  Speaker 1: red wave that did sweep across most of Iowa. Sand's
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  Speaker 1: been running in a pretty interesting race so far. He's
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: already done one hundred town halls. He's really been running
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: for governor for almost a full four years. Ever since
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  Speaker 1: he won that race, it was clear he was I
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: in this moment to run for governor. Nobody thought cam
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: Reynolds was going to seek another term. There's no term
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: limits in Iowa, so she could have if she chose to.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: She chose not to. Clearly the split with the president right,
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: she was on team Desantas, and we know what happens
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: to anybody that's on Team DeSantis from the presidential era.
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  Speaker 1: It's not something that Donald Trump will ever forget. So
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: on paper, you know, Sand's been preparing to run against Fienstra.
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  Speaker 2: Now.
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  Speaker 1: When I ran into Rob Sand at a at an
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  Speaker 1: event that I was moderating where he was a participant
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: in the panel, he said, I frankly thought he was
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: spinning me a little bit. He said, ah, you know,
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  Speaker 1: Finstre's not it's not a done deal yet. He's got
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: a tougher prime. He's still got to he's still got
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: to deal with the primary well turned out. You know,
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  Speaker 1: Look he's traveling the state. All these candidates run into
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  Speaker 1: each other, so they keep track of this. Sand's been
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: prepared to one run kind of race. Now he's running
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: against an outsider. Sand was the was essentially challenging the
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Republican estestablishment. Well, now his opponent is an outsider who
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: was not endorsed by Donald Trump. So you can't really
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: run the He's too far, too closely associated with Trump mindset.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: So look, it's possible Zach Lane is just too much
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: of a neo Fhight. He gets painted as too far
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: to the right. Sand is able to pull off a
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: high single digit, made even low double digit victory, and
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: if he could pull that off, that drags other statewide candidates,
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: in congressional candidates across the finish line. This is why
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: this Iowa race if if Zach Lane cannot be competitive
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  Speaker 1: against Rob Sand and look, whatever anybody thinks of Randy Feinstrett,
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: he've been the nominee. This was going to be a
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: three to five point race. No matter what in going
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: in either direction. Now there's a lot more unpredictability. Look,
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to assume that an insurgent outsider that
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: is able to topple a sitting member of Congress in
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: or primary for governor. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: underestimate this gentleman. But if he has a hard time
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: sort of getting with the rest of the Republican ticket,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: this is this is a cause for some concern for Republicans,
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: and this puts down I mean, I have identified Iowa
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: that if you want to test whether is twenty twenty
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: a wave election or not, my definition of wave will
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: be dependent on what the results are in the three
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: Iowa congressional districts that for grabs that US Senate seat,
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: and that governor's race. If this is a blue wave year,
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: I expect a sweep or near sweep of those five races,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: with maybe one of the you know, I think I
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: think one of the two members of Congress could survive
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: in a blue wave year. But if you if this
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: is going to be a blue wave, the only way
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: I think you can call it a blue wave is
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: if these Iowa statewide races go blue. And I'm just
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: telling you tonight, the results that we saw that came
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: in are going to have the Democrats getty here on
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: Wednesday morning. They're going to feel better just simply on
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: what happened in Iowa. Forget everything else, and look, we've
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: got a long way to go to find out everything
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: all the different various matchups. Did any parties get locked
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: down in the top two with the whole California mess,
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: But just with what happened in Iowa, this was a
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: big positive development for Team Blue and Democrats have their
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: best shot at sweeping the top two state white offices
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: in Iowa since the Vilsack Harken era. Believe it or not,
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: that's nearly twenty fifteen, twenty years ago, and that's the
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: possibility they're staying. And if that happens, I promise you
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: at least two probably the first and the second, but
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: maybe all the first, second, and the third could all
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: come over there. You know, when you think about how
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: small the battlefield is and for the House in general,
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: right we think we may have about twenty five competitive
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: House seats. The fact that three of the twenty five
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: are in the state of Iowa, one of the most
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: competitive Senate races now might be in the state of Iowa.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: The number one target race now for Democrats to try
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: to pick up a governor seat is Iowa. You can
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: see why. To me, it's the state we will use.
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: It's the barometer to test is this wavier or not?
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: Iowa will deliver that answer. But for this primary night,
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: Iowa delivered for the Democrats in a big, big way.
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: And this upset in the governor's race. Look, we know
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: it's going to make the president nuts. Obviously they got
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: to him. Look, there was a poll that started circulating
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: John Colvulliam's firm, that circulated last Friday that showed that
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: Feinstro was trailing. It was that poll that was used
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: to convince Donald Trump, you've got to endorse fiinst in
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: the same way that he endorsed Mike Rodgers, even though
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: Mike Rodgers and Michigan wasn't his favorite type of Republican,
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: the same way that he endorsed Johnsonunu, even though the
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: Sonudu family was not a big fan of the Trumps
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: in New Hampshire. But it was the candidate that the
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: Senate Republicans wanted, considering what he just did to the
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: Senate Republicans with Ken Paxton and essentially costing them two
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: hundred and fifty the million dollars in extra spending that
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: is going to be necessary to try to save their
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: Texas Senate hide. He went ahead and agreed to endorse
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: a one time Dessanta supporter, Randy Finstrom. He's going to
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: he's not going to be happy about this. So let's say,
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: I can't wait to find out who who's going to
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: get blamed for forcing that decision on him, because especially
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: when he finds out that the Maha folks were already
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: behind Zach Lane, and I wonder if the person or
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: people who got him to endorse Fienstrom let him know
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: that the Maha side of the world had been siding
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: with another candidate in the race. Anyway, just a few
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: things on that one to think about. This episode of
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• 21:57
  Speaker 1: I do want to spend a minute on out the
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: coda because this is so South Dakota in the mid
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: eighties made that so. One of the reasons why we're
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: obsessed with the Iowa governor. One of when the night
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: began is Iowa has a quirky law. If no and
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: this is true in either side's primary, if no candidate,
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: and this applies to all races, not just statewide races,
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: If no candidate a primary receives thirty five percent, then
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: a convention will decide who the nominee is. And it
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: doesn't and it couldn't be anybody, not even necessarily anybody
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: that filed in the ballot, believe it or not, and
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: there was a real chance that the Iowa governor Republican
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: primary was going to feature no candidate receiving thirty five percent.
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: Well the two winning The winning candidate got thirty seven percent,
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: thirty seven point eight percent, and Fienstrup just finished bying
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: them at thirty seven percent, so they across the threshold.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: There's no runoff. South Dakota had the same law, but
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: in the eighties, instead of letting a county convention do it,
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: they decided to say, well, if this happens in a
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: primary state wide primary, and this one they just do
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: for statewide primaries, well then they would hold an actual runoff.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: They've never had to do this, they will for the
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: first time. So July twenty eighth circle year calendars, folks,
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: July twenty eighth will be the only Tuesday, the only
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: state in the Union that will be voting on a
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: Tuesday in July. Last Tuesday in July. It's going to
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: be our friends in South Dakota, and it's going to
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: be a runoff between the populist outsider who we know
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: for sure, Toby Dodan either against the sitting up governor
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: who assumed office after Christy Nome was appointed Department of
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Homeland Security, and know once she got fired from that,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: she didn't get to go back to be governor or.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: The sitting member of Congress, Dusty jo And right now
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: is sitting in third place. Look as I'm taping now,
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: there's still still anyway from five to ten percent of
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: precincts still remaining, and you got to wait for every vote.
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: Account we know it's going to a runoff. No candidate
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: at this point in time, nobody's even crossed the thirty
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: percent threshold. Believe it or not, Four candidates in this
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: race received at least twenty percent of the vote. Yet
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: a sitting Speaker of the House, sitting member of Congress,
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: sitting governor, and then this populist outsider, and of course
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: it's the populous outsider that ends up the top vote getter,
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: fitting the pattern that we've been seeing where when in doubt,
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: the undecided Republican primary voter is voting out, voting against incumbents,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: which has been a phenomenon, as John Covillian noted, that
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: has been taking place really since the Tea Party movement.
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: But in these competitive primaries, you'd rather be somebody who
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: didn't have a resume filled with political offices than have
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: the resume filled with political offices. One other note on
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: both Randy Fiinster and Dusty Johnson. Right, these are two
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: sitting members of Congress, Conservatives, okay, but conservative members of
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: Congress who are not bomb throwers were not theatrical guys.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: And I'll just be honest, I'm kind of personally disappointed
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: what I'm about to say. But basically they were too
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: moderate in temperament. They weren't They're not too moderate in
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: ideology and in their policy positions, but they're too pragmatic.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: They're too they will they don't want to own the Libs.
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: They want to defeat the policy, but they're not interested
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: in sticking a finger in the eye of somebody type
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: of politics. Right, They're not performative guys. I say this
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: with a bit of a lament. Right. I think there's
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: a there's a there's a there's a certain if if
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: if sort of being polite to other people is a
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: net negative and a primary right now is is kind
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: of a big discipointment, because again, if you're apparently the
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: biggest sin that Randy finsterra and Dusty Johnson committed, we're
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: simply being not being bombos, not being performers, not being
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: social media bs artists. That's a challenge, right, If this
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: is what the system is going to reward. At some point,
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: maybe we'll burn out on this. I don't know, but
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: this is this It it's notable. You can't ignore it.
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: And as much as maybe I'm guessing some of you
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: that listen to this podcast probably share my view that
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: you know, this style of politics is kind of destructive.
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: It doesn't really get much done, but it's being rewarded
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: by voters. And as long as it gets rewarded by voters,
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: trust me, it's going to get replicated and we're going
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: to see more of it. But this, it's a pretty
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: notable trend. And right, John Cornan, the more running is
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: the more reasonable Republican Randy Feinstraw part of the mainstream Caucus, Right,
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: Dusty Johnson, the chair of the of the mainstream Caucus.
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: Not not a trend to ignore on this one. This
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: very much is Donald the Donald trumpification of the Republican Party,
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: even though he didn't necessarily. The irony is he endorsed
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: the least Trump like candidate and the voters went ahead
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: with the more trumpy or the more outsider, the more
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: as my friend Charlie Cook likes to call them exotic,
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: can't It's on that one, But history is made. South
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: Dakota will hold its first ever runoff for a statewide office,
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: and in this case, it will be for governor. The
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: question is will the current governor who assumed office after
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: Christino was appointed cabinet sectary? Can he get the second
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: spot in the runoff. I have a feeling that we
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: will have the answer to that question sometime on Wednesday
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: after before I get to California. One another note that
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: I wanted to make here. I had a few things
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: I wrote down here that I didn't want to miss.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: Deb Holland, who was a cabinet secretary. She was member
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: of Congress Cabinet secretary in Joe Biden's cabinet, is officially
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: the Democratic nominee for governor in New Mexico, handily defeating
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: Alex Bragman's father, Alex Bragman, the baseball player. Well, Alex
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: Brigman's father is a city official in Albuquerque, and it
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: wasn't very close. Holland one bay. But if elected governor,
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: and she's going to be the heavy favorite for governor,
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: she'll be the first ever Native American woman to serve
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: as governor. So I just wanted to make a note
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: of that. So that brings us to California, and it
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: is going to be days because let me remind you
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: of something. The California law works as this for mail
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: in ballots. If the ballot is received by the county official,
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: is postmarked by election day, and that ballot makes it,
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: they know you have to have mailed it on election day,
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: so you have to have a postmarked by election day.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: But they will receive ballots in the mail and process
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: ballots for up to one week after election day as
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: long as the ballot is postmarked on election day as
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: an election day postmark. So the point is ballots are
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: still going to be coming in all week. And this
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: isn't a small thing. Why do I say it's not
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: a small thing? Talking to my So this is about
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: sort of how this process worked this cycle. Because of
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: the topsy turvy nature of the California gubernatorial race, Democratic
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: voters were holding their ballot very late every just to
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: remind people, every single voter gets mailed to ballot in California.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: The typical early voter is usually the sort of the
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: sort of the rank and file. I always vote in
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: primary Democratic voter, Well, that voter voted but didn't drop
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: off their ballot until the last thirty six hours. Up
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: until the last seventy two hours, there was some concern
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: that turnout for twenty twenty six was going to be
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: lower in California than turn out for twenty twenty two.
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: And at twenty twenty two there was no it wasn't
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: an open race for governor. There really won this serious
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: you know, there's not a serious contested race for governor
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: that's just going to it's going to automatically bring down turnout.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: There was some thoughts. I mean, the early vote was
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: coming in so low that there was some thoughts, Boy,
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: are people holding their ballots at the very end or
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: is there going to be a low turnout primary. Well,
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: all the ballots now have come in, we have an
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: idea turnouts likely now going to be higher this cycle
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: than it will be in twenty twenty two, which it
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: should be because there's an open seat race for governor,
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: really the first purely wide open race for governor probably
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: since nineteen ninety eight, and that was the last time
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: we had a shockingly high spending candidate for governor, a
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: guy named al Checki, and the boring candidate Gray Davis
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: ended up winning the primary. Well, apparently jave Absara is
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: benefiting from being the boring candidate, the moderate and temper.
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: So here we were talking about the boring candidates don't
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: do well in Republican primaries, but the boring candidates sometimes
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: do well in Democratic prior to this is an all
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: party primary. But given particularly post swallwell, there suddenly was
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: an appetite for somebody that was a little less bomb throwing,
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: that was a little and the stier TV ads have
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: sort of are starting to wear people out, and so
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: Bessarah seems to be benefiting from that fact. Now, look,
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: in the first hours that the votes were coming in,
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: there's a bit of a what I'd call a red mirage,
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: which was kind of expected, and it's probably a bigger
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: version of it, but we're going to find out as
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: the votes come in. And why do I say it's
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: a bigger version of it, because of this unusual situation
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: with the early vote. Right the early vote came in,
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: Republicans knew who they were voting for. Early. They knew
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: they were voting for Spencer Pratt. They knew they were
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: voting for Steve Hilton, and that's why the earlier numbers,
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: as you've seen in and in fact, at this point,
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: Hilton may still be leading. My guess is by the
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: time some of you listen to this, Hilton probably will
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: have fallen into second place. The question is going to
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: be this count again. If they're receiving ballots for up
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: to a week, we're not going to have this. We're
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: not going to know for sure the second candidate is
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: in this California governates. We think until at least for
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: a few more days. We got to see what kind
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: of spread there is between second and third. But as
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: I record this, at the moment, Hilton still is narrowly ahead,
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: but it's narrow It's only by about thirty thousand votes.
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: But Sarah is second, and then there's a pretty big gap.
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: There's about a two hundred thousand vote gap between Besarah
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: and Styre, basically about a six percentage point gap. Stier's
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: number is going to grow, Hilton's number is going to
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: go down. The Besarah numbers probably going to grow a
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: little bit too. So we're sitting at twenty seven, twenty six,
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: twenty essentially at the moment with stire twenty, is that
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: a big enough gap for Hilton to hold on. Well,
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: A lot of it's going to depend on Bianca Bianco
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: was the other Republican in the race. With about half
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: the vote in, Bianco was still getting more than double digits.
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: That's not good for Hilton's chances of hanging on in
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: the primary. The expectation though, is as this later vote,
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: these later ballots come in, Hilton's numbers should hold fairly
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: steady and Bianco should start going down. Especially you've had
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: you had a bit of a paid Republican effort. Hilton
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: ran ads and was running messaging trying to consolidate vote
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: for him to prevent the Republicans from being locked out
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: of the general election. And then Donald Trump came in
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: with the endorsement really to try to guarantee the same thing.
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: I think there's a wide enough gap here between Hilton
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: and Stier for Hilton to hang on. My expectation is
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: is that when all the votes are counting, but Sarah
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: will be the top vote getterer. The question is is
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: how close does Styer get. We've seen a total collapse
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: of the Katie Porter vote total collapse of the Matt
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: Mayon vote, and that number continues to go down as
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: newer ballots get counted. Right, they were sitting at seven
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: and six percent when the first wave of early vote
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: came in. They're both now dipping below five. Well, how
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: many of those folks went to Stire? I guess you
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: would assume that the progressive voters are going to go
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: to Stire, the less progressive voters are going to go
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: to Bisera. How does that shake itself up again? I
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: think the Hilton number is large enough to hold off Stire,
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: but we know Stire had the money to run a
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: very sophisticated get out the vote effort, a very sophisticated
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: male balloting effort. So you know he's done spent an
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: enormous amount of money of trying to do this. If
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: you're Besarah, you obviously don't want to run against Styre.
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: You want to run against Hilt, no matter you know.
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: I think of the three scenarios right the Sarah v. Stire, Paseravi, Hilton,
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: Hilton b Styre, the most competitive would be Baseravi Styr,
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: though I would suspect that most of the establishment were
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: rolling around Basara. There is A. There is an exhaustion
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: that Styer has created with frankly political reporters, the political
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: side of it. I mean, he's just relentless right, and
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: he's just saturated television ads to the point where we
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: ran one of them. But Sarah ran A ran an
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: ad that that was just if you have YouTube TV,
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: if you ever gotten the the the instead of a commercial,
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: in lieu of a commercial, you can just get this moment,
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: a zen type of you know, it's just like nature
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: and crickets and all of this. Well, that's exactly the
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: ad of Bsera ran because tired of the Tom Stier ads.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: But nobody speaks in the ad. It's just writing on there.
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: Basaravi Stier would be. I mean Styer spent over two
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: hundred million dollars for this for this first half of
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: the campaign. Uh spend at least that for another five months,
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: and it will tear the party apart, and it will
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: cause all sorts of problems. It'll probably raise boat right,
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: I guess, might help Democratic candidates a bit down the ballot. A.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: But Sarah Hilton race I think is a very conventional
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: d versus our race probably won't be what the shift
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: Garvey margin was, but it will likely be double digits,
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: you know, I think fifty six forty four or something
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: like that. With the wild card being this scandal that
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: could touch Besara and if you're unfamiliar with it, a
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: former chief of staff of his who actually has also
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: has ties to Gavin Newsom, was essentially, you know, sort
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: of getting some campaign money on the side and whatever
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: he was doing. Joe Biden's Justice Department opened to investigation.
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: So this isn't Donald Trump's Justice department supposedly doing political weaponization, right,
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: this is a democratic justice department investigating a democratic former
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: chief of staff both to Kevin Newsom into Javier Vesara.
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: What did be Sarah?
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: Now?
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: Did he did? He really not know that his chief
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: of staff was looking away to supplement his income and
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: was complaining about the fact that he had to take
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: a pay cut in order to work out in Washington
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: with him at HHASS. So it is I don't think
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: it's as we were talking. In some ways, it's a
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: run in the middle scandal these days. I don't know
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: if it breaks through the way Swallowell broke through, but
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: it's not helpful and so you know, that's the only
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: wild card that hangs over Besarah here on that. But
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: Basara v. Hilton is a fairly conventional race and probably
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: it's probably look it actually helps both parties, right, it
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: makes for a clean general election campaign for the Democrats,
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: but there's a statewide effort to get Republicans to the polls,
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: so it might be able to help them save a
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: couple of House seats. And you know, for me, the
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: most interesting I think the house race I'm the most
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: fascinated with is California six. And California six is the
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: one one where Kevin Kylie, who was a Republican, decided
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: to drop his Republican party affiliation, become an independent and
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: run in the sixth Congressional district as an independent rather
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: than to try to either run again do a member
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: versus member race, and stay a Republican. I've spent a
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: little time with Kevin Kylie. I think he's dead serious
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: about staying as an independent. I think he's enjoying the freedom.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: I think he sees the freedom of not feeling the
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: pressure of partisan you know, leadership forcing you to vote
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: certain ways, and especially if Democrats are going to win
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: control of Congress, I think he's likes the idea of
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: a free agent. So it'll be interesting to see he
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: was he was leading early. He should make it into
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: the top two. Is it going to face there was
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: there's a Democrat and a Republican and I don't know
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: if it's a I you can that's an interesting scenario. Now,
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: I assume he ends up facing a Democrat because the
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: district was drawn to help a Democrat and to try
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: to help a Democrat win. So I assume the Republican
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: that was very it was a very fairly tight three
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: way race from about half the vote in. I assume
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: the Republican candidate in the same sort of red mirage
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: that we were telling you you were going to see
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: a slow fade of the Republicans across the board, so
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: that it would probably probably not quite get there. So
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: it's likely to be Kighie the independent versus a Democrat.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: And the question is is Kylie take help from Republicans?
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: Does he say no, he doesn't want help with Republicans
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: because he doesn't necessarily want to organize with them. So
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: that's going to be an interesting decision because at the moment,
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: the party hasn't decided whether to help Kylie out. Let's
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: see what happens when he's the official I guess whatever
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: we call him now in nominees in the top two system.
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: So that's just a pet race of mind. And you know, look,
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: I've spent a lot of time. I've made no secret
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: I think the two parties are in a bit of
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: a rough spot and could use some independent third party disruption.
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: And anytime I'm seeing a disruptive Canada show up, I
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: think it's worth making note of. Obviously, the other race
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: in California that certainly gets plenty of media attention is
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: La Mayor and the Man from the Hills and Spencer Pratt.
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: And here's what we can tell you there. Maass is
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: definitely gonna make it. The question is she gonta run
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: against Spencer Pratt or Media Ramen. Now, Spencer Pratt is
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: running essentially to Bassa's right and Ramen is running to
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: Vassi's left. Pratt is really good at getting a lot
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: of attention. Pratt has made the issue of the fire
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: in the Palisades his issue. The problem for Pratt is
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: what's he going to promise the rest of the city. Right,
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: The rest of the city doesn't care about the rich
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: people as much as the rich people care about the
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: rich people when I'm referred to the ballisades. If you're
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: Karen Bass, you might prefer to run against the guy
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: that Donald Trump likes the best, and Spencer Pratt, then
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: running against somebody that's on Mom Donnie likes the best.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: Because Nitia Ramen has been running essentially a running as
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: a Mom Donnie acolyte running to Bass's left, that is
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: a much more complicated race. Before I know, as I'm
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: filing this now, we have about about half the vote
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: in at this point in La Bass is going to
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: get there. Pratt's got a nine percentage point lead over Ramin.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: That's probably enough to hang on. That number is going
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: to shrink over time in the same way, and she'll
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: get a little bit closer. Pratt will go down, but
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: it's hard to imagine that he loses that much altitude,
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: especially since he was actually starting to get even more
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: attention and momentum in the lighter part of this campaign,
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: So even late deciders may have thrown him a bone
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: or two. But as unpopular as Karen vass is, it's
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: a lot easier for her to run essentially a Democrat
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: versus returning Spencer Pratt into a trumpet Republican is going
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: to be a lot easier than running against somebody that's
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: a mom Donnie acolyte. And so it looks like Bass
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: is going to get what she wants there. So there
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: you go. Look, we got a lot more to go
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: in California. There's about seventeen thousand more house races that
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: I would love to dig into, and including Ken Calvert
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: and Young Kim. We actually called Ken Calvert spot in
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: the runoff a little bit quicker than we were able
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: to count Young Kim's and what happens in you know,
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: we some of those races will be easier to handicap
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: once we know will there be a Republican in the
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: top two for the governor's race or not? Right? That
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: has all sorts of implications on that. Sti Besara is
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: one type of campaign and Hilton v. Besera is another.
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: I don't The one scenario I don't think we're going
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: to get is Stire b. Hilton. For what it's worth,
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: I do think it's the one scenario that Hilton would
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: be a bit competitive. There is I think I think
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: there is a very low ceiling for Styre. And the
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: question is does he even have a high enough floor
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: to crack the top two. We shall see. But if
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: he doesn't crack the top two, that's a lot of
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: wasted money. That is a lot of money when you
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: throw in how much money we are talking. He is
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: getting awfully close to have spent in two campaigns about
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: a half billion dollars and I don't think he got
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: a single delegate for the presidential race. And I'm not
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: sure what he's gotten out of this. I'm not counting
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: him out yet.
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: But.
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: There's there's there's a there's an old saying about you know,
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: it doesn't matter what the packaging says. Sometimes dogs won't
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: eat the dogs just simply won't eat the dog food.
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: There's whatever it is. Maybe it's his personality, Maybe it's
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: just simply the fact that he's a billionaire. There's something
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: that seems to be and he's running sort of almost
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: an aggressively progressive campaign, so you would think and there's
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: a there is a a progressive electorate to tap into.
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: But there's something something about him that seems to turn
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: off a certain chunk of voters that in theory he
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: should be politically aligned with. But he has had a
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: hard time connecting as a presidential candidate, and I'd argue
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: he's had an equally hard time connecting as a gubernatorial candidate.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: One more note on the gubernatorial race, and then I'm
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna wrap up this analysis for the night.
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: Matt Man, maybe we have may have rest an independent
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: journalists former Ally Times reporter on the election night live stream,
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: and she made an interesting observation that I think has
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: been that that deserves some deserves some highlighting sort of
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: you know, up in tweet if you will, and that
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: is that if you knew who Matt mahon was, the
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: one thing and you weren't from San Jose, the one
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: thing you knew is, oh, he was big text candidate.
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: And she seemed to think that that actually was a
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: problem for him, that he was too defined by the
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: fact that he was the candidate that the tech community like,
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: because guests who ain't popular right now and on frankly
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: either side of the aisle, the tech community, you know,
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: Man was running as more of a technocrat. He was
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: on this podcast. Some of you probably heard him. I mean,
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: you you know he he's sort of he screamed technocrat,
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: which you know is something that that you know, I'll
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: admit I'm always you know, the technocrats, that the data
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: driven folks, So I'm always I'm the type of person
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: that gives them a second look, but not everybody else does. Uh.
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: But as we've discussed, you know, you got to you
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: gotta do a little solid, you gotta do little singing
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: for your supper. So we hit that wall. But I
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: do think it's I do think we shouldn't ignore the
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: fact that perhaps his biggest impediment was simply he was
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: associated with the wrong group of people in the wrong
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: campaign here. And who do I mean by that? The
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: tech community. So anyway, I just didn't want to let
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: let my stream of consciousness analysis from this night go
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: without making that point. So overall, if you're looking at
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: it nationally big picture, really good night for the Democrats,
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: really challenging night for the Republicans. I'd say, I'm not
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: going to sit here and say it was a bad
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: night for them, but it's a challenging night for them.
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: A couple of incumbent members of Congress can't get through
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: Gubernatoro primaries. You know that for me is a Canarian.
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: The coal mine about just being an incumbent member of Congress.
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: Not a great cycle. Democrats got primaries to turn out
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: the way they wanted to turn out in New Jersey
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: the way they wanted to turn out Montana. I left
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: on Montana Montana Senate Democratic primary is likely now is
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: going to be one by somebody who has hinted that
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: they might be willing to drop out of the race.
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: Why does that matter? John Tester is supporting the independent
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: candidate Seth Bodner in that Montana center race. Seth Bodner
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: would like a deal with the Montana Democrats that Dan
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: Osborne was able to put together in Nebraska with the
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: Nebraska Democrats in that center race, which is to get
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: the party to essentially take a knee. Don't feel the candidate.
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: Nebraska Democrats have agreed to do that. A lot of
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: Montana Democrats were grumbling about this, weren't ready to do this.
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: But at the last minute there was one candidate that
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: seemed to not you know, seem to be at least
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: open to the idea of doing this. And magically, this candidate,
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: Alani Bankad got suddenly got a little bit of money
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: spent on her behalf to make sure because Riley Neil,
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: who was also in this primary had said that she
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: was not not going to drop out, which would have
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: been a death sentence to Bondner, would have just absolutely
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: allowed the Republican nominee. Remember this is that race where
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: Steve Daines literally dropped out decided not to file like
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: an hour before filing, in order to guarantee that Kurt
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: all Me the US Attorney, didn't have a serious primary challenge.
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: If it's all Me v. Bodner, that's a very tight
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: Senate race that is up for grabs, that it's a
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: fifty to fifty race. But if it's all Me Bodner
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: and there is a somebody on the Democratic line, unwinnable
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: race for Bonner, it just isn't winnable. I mean because
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: a Democratic you know, there's enough sort of people that
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: just say, oh, what what party do I vote for
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: that will always vote one of the two major parties.
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: If it's five percent or more, it's over right. The
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: numbers don't add up for Bodner. And I guarantee you
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: if there's a Democratic name on the line in the
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: Senate race on the ballot, they're going to get more
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: than five percent. They'll probably get somewhere between. Even if
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: they don't campaign fifteen percent and that that becomes that
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: just makes the math there impossible. But Democrats got somebody
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: who they think they can.
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: Convince to do. So.
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: The point is everything went their way in New Jersey,
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: everything went their way in Iowa, everything seemed to go
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: their way in Montana. And we got a long way
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: to go. But at a minimum, they're not getting shut out.
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: The big fear in California in the top two is
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: that they could actually get shut out. That's not going
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: to happen there. So all in all, a really good
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: night for the Democrats at best, a really challenging night
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: for the Republicans. And depending on what kind of candidate,
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: what kind of candidate that Zach Lane turns out to
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: be is the Republican nominee for governor Iowa. If he's
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: a bad candidate, then tonight we'll look back and say
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: this was a disaster for the Republics because one bad
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: statewide candidate for the Republican Party in Iowa could cost
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: them three House seats a Senate seat. Put all that
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: together could actually cost them control of both thousd in
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: the Senate. So that's why for now I'll just say
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: challenging because I think we got to give Zach Lane
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: a chance. Here see what kind of candidate he is.
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: But if it's if he turns out to be a
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: bad nominee. Tonight was a disaster for the GOP. All
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: right with that, We're gonna sneak in a break when
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: we come back my conversation, We're gonna stick to gubernatorial politics.
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: We're gonna stick to politics. I got an interview with
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: one of the candidates running for governor in Florida. It's
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: the mayor of Orange County, Jerry Demings. After the break,
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  Speaker 1: I too am a customer. Well joining me now is
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: as many of you know, I may not be an
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: official resident of Florida. But I still am a Floridian,
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: which means I'm always going to over index on Florida
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: politicians on this podcast. And joining me now is the
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: mayor of Orange County, also a candidate for governor. It
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: is Jerry Demings, mister mayor. Welcome to the podcast.
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: Thank you so much, glad to be here.
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: I'll admit so I did a little research, and I'll
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: admit there's something in here that I was that you
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: have a terrific unusual background for a politician. The reason
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: I say this is that it's not every day that
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: there are elected officials whose first trade was accountant. And
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: given how we have so many governments who don't know
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: how to balance books at all, I think we could
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: use some more accountants in politics. Tell me how do
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: you go from accountant to police officer to sheriff to mayor?
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: Tell me about accounting? About that past.
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: So, yes, I'm a graduate of Florida State University, where
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: I studied.
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: All that against it, I tease that, and I'm married
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: to a knowle.
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: It happens, it does happen, and so am I mayor
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: to a no. But when I was undergraduates, I was
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: highly recruited by various federal law enforcement agencies. But when
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: I got to graduation, the first job that I took
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: was as an accountant. While I was working for about
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: of years an accountant, the federal government continued to pursue me,
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: and quite frankly, they convinced me that a career in
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: law enforcement might be a good career for me. Secondly,
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: I saw some things happening in my neighborhook that I
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: didn't like, where the neighborhood was becoming infested in drugs.
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: I had a brother was addicted to heroin, and I
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: was just frustrated. But I wanted to do something about it,
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: and so I applied to the Orlando Police Department, and
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: obviously I got hired. I thought I would stay there
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: for a year, and I ended up staying there for
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: twenty one plus years and rising from a police officer
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: street cop to chief of police and had the privilege
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: of being appoint the chief of police in nineteen ninety eight.
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: But the accounting kind of helped me to run the
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: agency because it wasn't just about public safety at that point.
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: I was brought in seven hundred million dollar operation at
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: that part, and it just kind of set me up
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: perfectly for what I'm doing today because I started out
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: at the local level, the granular level, understanding the true
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: needs of people who struggle within their communities.
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: You know, I was born and raised in Miami, and
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: I noticed that you're born and raised in Orlando. And
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: I'm sure you've gotten this because I get it. It's
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: like nobody's born in Miami. Nobody's born in Orlando. Everybody
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: moves to Orlando. But you're a native, and that's interesting
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: to me because you've seen you know, I've always say
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: Florida has changed more than it's not changed, as far
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: as my experiences have been. You know, you know, I've
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: left Miami in nineteen ninety. By two thousand, Miami was
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: more different than it was the same. And that's just
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: the story of Florida. Florida is always growing, it's always changing.
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: But talk about Orlando in the eighties when you became
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: a police officer to what Orlando is today.
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: So and back to her the eighties. At that time,
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: it was a period of call for reform of the
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: nation's law enforcement agencies. We came off of a riot
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: in the nineteen eighty period of time and I was.
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: We had three of them in Miami in the eighties.
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: You know, you're correct. It was happening all over Florida,
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: all over the country. And so as I entered law enforcement,
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: there were these calls for police reform. And so here
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: I am forty five years later, and I will tell
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: you that there's still calls a police reform, but today
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: that call is for police reform of our federal immigration
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: and customs enforcement agents more so than the state of locals.
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: And so for my entire forty five year career of
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: a public it's always been a call to take a
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: look at the way we do business as a law
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: enforcement agency, as a local government. And so I've had
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: the opportunity now to live through four and a half
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: decades of change, concert change, and so here I am today.
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: I say that that experience of being here at the
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: granular level has adequately prepared me for the state wide level. Now.
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: Over these years, I've been able to have appointments to
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: different state oversight commissions, to federal oversight commissions. I had
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: an opportunity during the Obama administration to be appointed to
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: the FEMA National Advisory Council. I had the opportunity to
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: speak on behalf of the nation's law enforcement agencies and
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: how to bring about change as part of different national committees,
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: and the same with the State of Florida. Had opportunity
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: to serve on the Criminal Justice Standards and Training Commission
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: here in Florida that regulates law enforcement agencies, and I've
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: enjoyed doing it. But also I've had the opportunity to
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: really delve into some of the most significant issues facing
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: just working class people here within our state. And that
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: has set me up perfectly to be a mayor now
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: you know, and been a share of least chief mayor,
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: deputy county administrator. All of those things. The sun total
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: of those things gave me experience, broad experience by wish
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: to govern and also the measure the performance of our
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: state and local governments over the years.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: Let me go to law enforcement training. What's the look?
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: There's no one. I don't want to sit here and
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: say there's just one answer here. But is it better
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: recruiting or better training? That should be the focus? You
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: know it should be? You know, is it is it
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: you got to recruit a certain type of person, of
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: a certain type of character or training matters more than anything.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: What would be your you know what matters more here what.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: Matters is not one of those things, but all of them.
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: You got to hire the right people in the first place.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: And today and the competitive hiring environment that law enforcement
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: or public service finds themselves in in general, there's a
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: lot of competition out there, and if you're not careful
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: because of the competition, your lower your standards, and sometimes
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: by lowering your standards, you're not going to get the
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: right people through the door in the first place. This
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: is a huge problem, isn't it. Yeah, they could be
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: ethically compromised. But then training, Once you focus on getting
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: the right people who have backgrounds with the desired kinds
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: of backgrounds that you want to see from a hiring perspective,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: then you have to train them adequately. And then the
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: third piece really is you have to provide adequate supervision.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: If you lead men and women to the human experience
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: out there, sometimes they'll make a poor decision they need
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: because of the lack of experience of what happened. You
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: need to have good supervision. And the fourth piece you
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: have is you have to hold an account. That means
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: you have to have the appropriate discipline. One of the
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: things that we've seen now with the frustration immigration and
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: Customs enforcement. They've had to ramp up so quickly because
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: the President forced this quick ramp up until they didn't
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: have time to really adequately scream and hire the right people. Then, secondly,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: they didn't provide adequate training because they wanted to get
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: them in the field so quickly they cut the training
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: in short. And then the third thing is they haven't
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: really supervised them. They don't have well experienced people who
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: are doing the supervision. And then lastly, they didn't hold
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: them accountable. And as a result of that, we saw
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: some outcomes that appear very cruel to Americans. Regardless of
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: what part are you're in, it was cruel. We saw
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: some consequences of that that. Unfortunately, when you put law
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: enforcement officers out there with a gun on where they
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: can have the authority to use deadly force or force,
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 2: that force needs to be appropriate given the circumstances, and
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: good law enforcement agencies are trained to avoid the use
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: of deadly force if they can. But you got to
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: have all of those ingredients that I just talked about
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: in order to avoid a calamity. And that's why we
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: have seen now the challenges that we have with immigration
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: and customed enforcement. Now, of course, we all agree that
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: you want to get the worst or the worst off
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: of our streets, the most violent offenders. We don't want
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: them in our country, we don't want them in our state,
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: we don't want them in our neighborhoods. But the way
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: you go about doing that still has to jive with
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: the law and best practices. And some of what we
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: have seen now is just not best practices. And when
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: it comes to law.
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: Enforcement, well, you know, it's the recruiting videos that ICE used.
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: I watch a lot of college football, and so what
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: was it?
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: What was.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: Jarring during college football season this last fall was and
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: they would sort of target by community. Hey, Seattle, do
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: you want to you know, not not have be told
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: how to be? You know, are you tired of essentially
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: being told you have to follow a certain set of rules.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: Come come to ICE, you know, and we're going to
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: throw all this money at you. What were the unintended
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: consequences for for a sheriff's department, like like Orange Counties
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: with these ad campaigns that were all over the country.
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: This was and it was essentially they were trying to
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: recruit other law enforcement, which of course only undermined local
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: law enforcement.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, even the sheriffs across the nation, and some of
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: the sheriffs here in Florida, they pushed back because quite frankly,
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: they were competing for talent. When you look at the
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: minimum qualifications to be a law enforcement officer, they're pretty stiff.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: But what we saw happening is in this field of competition,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: the sheriffs in the nation primarily said we're going to
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: cooperate with the federal immigration enforcement efforts. Certainly the sheriffs
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: in Florida did that. The over lheming majority of them
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: said hey, we're signing on board because in our state,
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: the majority of the sheriff's just happened to be Republicans,
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: and so they were playing They were playing an ice
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: with ice. But then Ice turning around on them and
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: started offering some of their officers and deputies incentives, signing bonuses,
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: and that frustrated the sheriffs, and so they began to
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: call him out and say, wait a minute, this is
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: supposed to be a partnership. We did not look for
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: you to be poaching from our men and women who
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: are serving our local agencies, and especially some of the
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: state law enforcement officers here in the state of Florida.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: Many of the state law enforcement officers are the lawyers
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: paid law enforcement officers in the state of Florida, and
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: so even within the state, when Ron de Santis chose
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: to really step outside of his core responsibilities as a
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: governor to protect the state, he stepped into the arena
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: of doing federal immigration enforcement. Immigration is a federal responsibility,
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: not a state, although we all have to protect our
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: borders in order to keep our states safe. But he
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: really got all in at all costs. And the last
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: that I have heard, the state of Florida, with the
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: promise from the federal government is old over six hundred
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: million dollars that really could have gone to take care
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: of some of the essential needs of our state. We
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: have homelessness that seem to have spiked here within the
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: state of Florida, and many different affordability issues related to
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: our social issues that the state could have used those
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: dollars for to assist our local governments and really deal
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: with some of the affordability issues. But rather because they
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: jumped into immigration and customer enforcement, those dollars are no
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: longer available.
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: Look, I want to move to why you're running for governor.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: But one last question for you on on unt law enforcement.
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: Should the should the county sheriff be an elected position?
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, I know the state wants it to be,
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: but you know, and I know like Miami Dade County
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: had to add this. They didn't want to have an
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: elected sheriff, and then they, I think they're sort of
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: were forced to because not every community thinks that should
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: be something that's up for up for a vote.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: Okay, so I've been through all three. I've been a
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: chief of police, an appointed chief of police by the
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: City of Orlando.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: Mayor working for a mayor, essentially right work a mayor.
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: I've been a director of public safety working for the county,
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: and I've been an elected sheriff. And what I can
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: tell you is that sometimes as an appointed chief of police,
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: politics enter into the issues that I had to deal with.
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: Sometimes politics related to funding adequately funding my police agency.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: Sometimes politics entered into the priorities about how we would
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: deploy resources. Now, I always said I'm forever grateful for
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: the mayor that appointed me, the only one to have
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: served as mayor of the City of Orlando Lyndie Hood,
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: but sometimes we had come flip as things were happening.
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: I was chief of police doing the events of nine
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: to eleven, and there was a nexus even here to
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: our local government with that. I won't get into the
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: details now, so suffice it to say, you know it
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: wasn't perfect then. As an appointed director of public Safety
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: by the county wide mayor, again politics kind of in
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: and into that. I had oversight for the jail during
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: that era, and sometimes you have frustration related to the
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: costs of benefit of how we were doing business. But
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: when you appointed, sometimes you are not free to be
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: as interesting fred as you want to be when you're
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: making statements to the public. But now I will tell
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: you my style was my agreement with both the mayor
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: both mayors was that you hired me to run this agency,
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: and if you want to run it, I'm not your guy.
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: But then, as a share a sheriff is elected an
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: electric constitutional officer and really can depoliticize to some extent
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: the breath of the responsibilities of law enforcement and can
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: I believe, more effectively advocate for a budget, can more
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: effectively be held totally responsible for the employ up under
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: their command, And so it really depends on the size
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: of the agency. Some of these law enforcement agencies, quite frankly,
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: are just not large enough and some of those duties
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: should be better handled by a medium to a larger
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: agency for just for cost efficiency, And so I see
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: all of them. It depends on the community.
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: It's like you think size of jurisdiction. You being able
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: to deal with a mayor as a peer rather than
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: as a subordinate is you're making it. I mean, I
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: hadn't thought of it that way, but that's an interesting argument,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: that you're peer to peer with a mayor on advocating
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: for money rather than having to play the internal political game.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: Yes, because some of the other politicians while here the
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: Orlando mayor is a non partisan position. The Orange County
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: mayor that I serve in now as nonpartisan. I didn't
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: get elected just by Democrats. I got elected by an
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: entire community. And in some jurisdiction, the sheriff is a
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: partisan position. In this jurisdiction, when I was elected as sheriff,
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: it was a part of some position. However, the role
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: and the responsibility that I had was a non partisan
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: role was to keep people safe. I really didn't care
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: what party they were in. I run as a Democrat,
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: and so I think there's something to be said about that.
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: And because of that, I topically always had bipartisan support.
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: I want all of my elections as a sheriff, I
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 2: was on the ballot five times. I won all five
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: of those elections by landslide overwhelmingly, three general elections and
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: two premieres during the decade that I was a sheriff
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: here and so I have the greatest admiration for the
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: men and women who serve, but I believe that I
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: had a little bit more authority being the high sheriff.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: You know, the sheriff and counties considered one of the
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: highest local elected officials anywhere in the country, and I
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: had the privilege of being to serve in that role.
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: All right, So here's the basic question, why do you
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: want to run for governor? Why do you want to
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: be governor.
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: I want to run for governor because I care about
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: my state. I've demonstrated after forty five years of public
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: service now having been very active in our state's politics,
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: haven't been very active in setting the priorities for our
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: state from a local government perspective. Through numerous different organizations,
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: I have been part of from being part of the
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: Florida Chiefs of Police Association, to being part of the
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: Florida Supreme Court Mental Health and Substance Abuse Task Force,
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: to being part of the Florida Sheriff's Association, to being
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: part of the Mayor's Association, to being part of the
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: Florida Association of Counties, and even at the national level,
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: being active with the National Association of Counties, being acted
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: with our state associations. It has given me the opportunity
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: to lead in bringing about the type of reform, the
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 2: type of governance that we want to see at the local, state,
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: and federal level. And so because of that, I have
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: great joy in being part of the solution, real than
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: just being part of the problem, of sitting on the
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: sidelines and just rather than trying to make things happen
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: and bring about the change that one would want to see,
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: I've chosen to get into the fight. And the other thing,
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: quite frankly, that really forced me to finally make a
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: decision was the unfair, uneven reviewing the scrutiny that the
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: state was putting local governments under. They created this farce
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: of a Dolge process here in the state of Florida.
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: That was right then political agendas and they came into
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: our county. And just today, as a matter of fact,
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: the chief financial officer for the state of Florida came
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: into my county and criticized how we were doing business.
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: And he doesn't have a clue about one money management.
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: He has no real credentials in that regard. But he's
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: running for re election and so he's a onemous politician
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: that came in. But we are wrestling with the needs
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: of our community day to day. So just the prospects
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: of taking my level of interest and public service to
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: the next level, I'm really highly motivated to move to
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: be governor to kind of expand the work that we're
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: doing here. We can gain some one respect back as
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: a local government because our state has been pre empty
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: local government authority and that's frustrating for all of us
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: who serve at the local level, and it's unfair quite frankly,
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 2: to the citizens. So all of that has motivated me.
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: And then the last thing that I will tell you
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: that motivated me to get in this race, the Census
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: administration threatened to remove me from office, and all six
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: members of my border count of Commission. When I challenged
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: his zeal to forced local governments here in Florida into
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: supporting immigration and customs enforcement, and when I pushed back
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: on that, after all the other local governments had signed agreements,
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: I was pushing back all signing the agreement. And so
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: he announced publicly, you know, through media forums, that if
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: we didn't sign the agreement, he was going to remove
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: us from office. Now, this is because Florida had passed
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: legislation that said that all local governments must cooperate with
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: immigration enforcement using their best efforts. Failure to do so
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: will result in your removal from office. But we have
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: seen the governor here remove our prosecutor, our state attorney
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 2: from this jurisdiction, and so it was somewhat of a
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: real threat. But then when we really studied my legal
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: team and I studied the agreements, it really didn't require
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: us to do anything that we had not been doing
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: for a decade. And so reluctantly I signed the immigration
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: agreement in the Government services agreement, and it really didn't
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: require us to do anything because the jail reports to
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: me ultimately as the CEO for our county. It doesn't
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: report to the sheriff our sheriff had already signed the
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: two eighty seven g from the law enforcement perspective, like
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: all sixty seven other sheriffs in Florida had done. And
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: then in terms of the sixty seven counties, all the
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: other counties had signed it before before I did. But
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: it really has been effectively meaningless to us. We still
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: do what we needed to do. But all of those
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: things kind of frustrated me and said, you know what
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: we can do better and if we want better results,
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: then we have to elect people and send people the
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: talent has it to do the work it needs to
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: be done, that's not afraid to do so. And so
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: I'm here. I'm running now to be that person to
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: bring back some normalcy and some balance in our style
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: of governing here in the state of Florida. If that
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: makes sense to you.
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: No, it look it makes sense. But let me let
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: me talk about challenge number one for you. Let's say
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: you get elected governor in Orange County. You've got a
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: county Commission that uh shares your worldview, at least politically
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: as governor, You're not going to have a legislature that's
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: probably going to share uh share your what you're going
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: to have a potentially a pretty combustible relationship. Who knows right?
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: How do you work? You know what? What's your How
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: are you going to work with a Republican legislature that's
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: you know, that can have a mind of their own.
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: Even Governor DeSantis would tell you that.
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 2: Well, I work with them now, uh with me? And
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: not all just about partisanship. It's about right versus wrong.
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: And uh, I believe when you focus on what's right
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: versus wrong, we all know what that looks like. Even
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: though today we have people and leadership positions who are
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: working really hard to make right look wrong and wrong
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: look right. So I look forward to going to the
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: state level having some common sense and balanced approaches to government.
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: My style of leadership is not to just always make
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: the decision, Uni Ladderman, but to involve the people and
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: making decisions for themselves. I never forget that we are
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: a government of the people and by the people. It's
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: we the people, and so when we get back to
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: doing that, and we can get back to doing that,
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: then we can perhaps bridge some of the gaps that
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: exist today along partisan lines. I happen to be a Democrat.
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: I'm registered to be a Democrat when I think I
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: was seventeen and a half years old, so we're talking
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: about about fifty years since I've been a Democrat. I
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: lined up there. But I'm a Democrat, and here in
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: our local jurisdiction, I don't just represent Democrats. I represent
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: everybody in this community and the governor. If the governor
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: is doing his or her job correctly, they shall never
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: forget that they represent all of the people, no matter
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: how you get there. And so I've demonstrated that over time.
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: I've always had some bipartisan support in my elections, especially
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: now because it's a non partisan race. I probably had
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: as many republicanly vote for me as anybody else did.
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: And so the path of victory for me now as governor,
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: even though the Republicans have a one and a half
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: million or so registration advantage over Democrats, they won't be
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: Democrats and Republicans won't be the only ones who will
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: be voting in this election cycle. All of those minor
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: parties are no party affiliates or the so called independence,
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: they will vote. And even I tell you every day
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: I have some wonderful Republican friends who I respect. Just
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: today I was out of the airport at our board meeting,
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: and some of my Republican friends kind of talked to
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: me about what was going on in Cuba, and some
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: of them have supported me financially what I have had
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: to raise money. Some of them I have appointed to
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: various positions, and so I look forward to getting back
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: to a tallahasset that is not just focused on divisions,
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: because they're not healthy for our state. At the end
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: of the day, some of what we're seeing in our
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: state here a state where the President calls home, but
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: what is happening in Washington, d C. Is dividing people,
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: and people are seeing that. I believe people want something different.
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: So I got into this race to offer Floridians something different,
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 2: a person that is no drama. I'm not a performance politician.
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 2: You take the work that we do very seriously to
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: offer them an experienced leader. I'm an experienced CEO. Now.
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 2: My budget that I'm manage her in a Raunge County
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: is about nine point seven billion dollars this year.
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: A dozen states.
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 2: I handled real issues, dealing with homelessness, mental health related issues,
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 2: dealing with community issues, and that's what I'll take. Even crisis,
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 2: you know, I've had over the years, I've had the
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: kitchen sink thrown that million in terms of from responding
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: to a terror attack, the False Ninth Club incident, to
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: managing a global pandemic. So as governor, the governor's role
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 2: is to not just govern during the good times, but
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: bad times, and that means taking care of all people,
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: regardless of the political persuade.
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: Well, look, I mean you, a strong case could be made.
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: You're as prepared as anybody I've ever seen to run
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: for governor. But as you know, it isn't always about
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: whether who's got the best resume, right, So what's your
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: diagnosis as to why Democrats have not elected a governor
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: since LTT and Childs?
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: We lost our footing, okay, and I believe some of
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: that is because of part ofsan politics. Sometimes, quite frankly,
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: we perhaps didn't run our best and our brightest. And
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: in the state of Florida, there's been a deliberate attempt
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: to not pay our legislators in the State House or
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 2: the state Senate. Very well, you're talking about someone for
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: the work that they do, making twenty seven to twenty
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: nine thousand dollars a year, and quite frankly, it's a
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: part time legislature. We're probably will pass them being part time,
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: but it has been deliberate, I believe by the party
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: in power to keep the payload so that they would
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: attract a few of people who are I'm going to
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: say more suited, more experienced, and so that's a problem.
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: And so they have Jerry Manda the districts. They have
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 2: put their foot on the scale through redistricting efforts, through
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: the ability to appunt our members of the judiciary right
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: from the Florida Supreme Court all the way down to
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 2: our local county courts, and so all of that has
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: resulted in this dominance that we see of the Republican
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: Party within the state of Florida. And they don't intend
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 2: to change. They want they're doubling down. We see Jerry
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 2: Manda redistricting maps now based upon partisanship. Whether they will
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: admit it or not, that's quite frankly what they thought
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 2: that was unconstitutional. That's probably going to be unconstitutional. But
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: then this blending of the courts with the executive brands
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: with the legislative branches happened. But getting back to the
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 2: central core of your question, I think that Democrats could
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: have run better candidates, and I say that very objectively,
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 2: and we didn't and sometimes some of the positions that
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: we took were not consistent with where the majority of
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: Floridians were. And so we have learned from that, and
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 2: so we have to get close under the bail curve
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: where more people are because quite frankly, we shared some Democrats.
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: What I mean by that is there are some who
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: were Democrats who got frustrated with our party and they
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: left the Democratic Party and they are now no party
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 2: affiliates or independence and so we have to take ownership
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 2: in the blame for that because we didn't listen. We
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: were not listening to them. So the path to victory
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: for me is to make sure that I'm talking about
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: the issues that's important to the majority of Floridians. I
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: have to make certain that we create a pathway to
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: victory where we talk about the issues that's important, where
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: I'm perceived as being electable. Also, we have to make
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 2: sure that we organize and mobilize this grassroots movement that
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 2: we're talking about today, uh, in order for me to
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: get elected and at the end of the day, demonstrate
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 2: that you know, I'm confident and I'm competent to do
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 2: the work that needs to be done and broaden my
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 2: appeal to the masses, the overwhelming majority of people. And
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 2: so we have a way that we're doing that. I'm
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 2: running a campaign. I have to communicate what we will do.
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 2: We have to breathe some hope that back into the
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 2: Democratic partner. The Democrats in Florida have lost and lost
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 2: in since thirty two years.
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a little bit like the football. Yeah, I
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: don't know if they believe. I can tell you the
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: national people they don't believe.
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 2: So you see this this pen that I wear. I
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 2: branded my campaign to Believe campaign, So I do have
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 2: to talk with people about believe again in your government.
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 2: Believe that you can have an impact on who gets elected.
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: And so that's what I'm doing. I'm running to create
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 2: this Believed movement and give them some of what our
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: Republican friends are doing right now. They're helping us. You know,
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 2: we're seeing some changes across the state of Florida where
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 2: we are seeing more Democrats elected to positions we've just
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 2: sold last evening in Georgia, you know, on the Democratic side,
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 2: Lance Bottom won that primary. We're seeing here in the
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 2: state of Florida in some areas, right in President Trump's backyard,
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 2: you know, Democratic House member got elected. We're seeing those things.
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: So we're seeing some signs that Americans are frustrated. People
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: within our state are frustrated and they want something different,
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: and we have to capitalize on this movement for change,
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 2: and so all of that is a pathway to victory
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 2: for us.
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: What's the Santus done right in his eight years?
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: I do believe that one of the things that DeSantis
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: has done right is he has focused the state on commerce,
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 2: on diversifying our economy. Our economy is striving, and we
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: are the land of our opportunity. The growth in this
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 2: state has continued where people are migrating here from all
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 2: over the world. He did, of course, he didn't do
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 2: it alone. I believe that the investments into our state
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 2: have been partly because of we're state with no state
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 2: income tax, and long before the Santis got in office,
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 2: he kind of he's been able to capitalize on the
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: momentum that the state had. But for the most part,
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 2: he's created some momentum with international business that is here.
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 2: And so I certainly don't agree with him with many things.
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 2: You know, as we were dealing with COVID. You know,
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: I sparred with him over COVID protocols. As it relates
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 2: to health care, I think he's done a terrible job
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: our state the costs of health care, and our state
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 2: has gone up significantly. Our healthcare from corporate perspective. Uh,
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 2: they are talks in the nation in revenue above in
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 2: terms of health care affordability, we rank forty fifth or
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 2: near the bottom in that regard. So, yeah, done a
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: great job there. And I can go on and on
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 2: about it, but you know, I try to be back.
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: I know it's you got more cases against them, but
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: you know, you strike me as somebody that isn't going
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: to assume somebody is one hundred percent wrong all the time.
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 2: No, rarely it is somebody one hundred percent role of
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 2: all the time. And no, are you one hundred percent
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 2: right if you're that person. Now, we see some personalities
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 2: on the national scene, Now I believe that they are
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 2: right one hundred percent of the time. Well, they're really honest.
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: That's that's yeah, that's I'm going.
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: To pick up two issues that are very Florida centric.
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: You sort of hinted at one of them, you know,
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: when it when it came to the no income tax,
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: because it's about how your fund government when you don't
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: have an income tax. And we look, Florida ain't gonna
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: get an income tax anytime soon. I'm not going to
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: sit here and say that that's the answer. But does
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 1: the state need more revenues or does it need a
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: better or does it need to be prioritized better.
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 2: Well, we're growing state, Okay, we're the fastest growing state
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 2: in the Union. When you're growing, it's going to require
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 2: more money. The cost of living has gone off. One
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 2: of the things I pride myself on is being a
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 2: good steward of the people's money. But sometimes these priorities
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 2: are shifting. We'll state where we're a peninsula. We have
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 2: been adversely impacted by major storms and hurricanes. That's cost here.
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 2: Those things are very unpredictable. We cannot control the global
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 2: economy with some of what we're seeing, with the influx
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: of people who are coming in who find themselves ill
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 2: prepared to really thrive in our environment, and so quite frankly, uh,
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: you know, the cost of living has gone up so
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 2: much our workers. In order to keep our workforce, you
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 2: got to pay people in order to get the food
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 2: to the market from the fields, you got to pay people.
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: We are relying on immigrants, and God bless the immigrants
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: who want to come here and do the difficult work
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 2: for the amount of money that they're paid paid. And
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 2: so as a result of all of that, I think
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: that our state needs more money. But government shall always
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 2: look for the opportunity to look for inefficiencies, and when
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 2: you find those efficiencies, you should use those dollars to
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: do other things well. But the fact that we are growing,
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 2: growing in complexity, I don't see a scenario where where
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: the budget really is going to decline. What our state
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 2: solution to these issues right now has been to deflect
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 2: them to the local governments. Where our state is.
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 4: Not property taxes right and stuff like that. They're not
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 4: working hand in love with our local governments. They're putting
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 4: a burden on our local governments to come up with
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 4: the solutions to the most difficult challenges that we have. Housing, affordability, transit, transportation, healthcare.
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 2: All of those things. They're putting on the backs of
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 2: local governments. While they can say, well, we reduce the
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 2: state's budget, but they've transferred it to us. And that's
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 2: what frustrates those of us at the local government.
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: Because, especially one who's been an accountant, you actually know
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: how that legacy works. Not everybody, not every mayor does.
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 2: Yes, I know how this works. As a mayor had
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 2: been the perfect that out for me to be the
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 2: governor to understand how we can more efficiently use money,
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: because really, if we invested more in some of the
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 2: social challenges, it's like treatment fundamentally ill, like treatment for
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 2: the substance abuser, like treatment for persons who suffer with
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 2: various behavioral disorders, are core occurring issues. When we work
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: with spending money on the front end to get those
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 2: individuals more self reliant in a self indulgent world, we
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 2: can get them more functional. Sometimes they're not committing crimes,
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 2: they're not stealing because they're on drugs. We changed our
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 2: public policy in our county and I've been part of
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 2: that now for quite some time, and by doing so,
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: we have avoided increasing costs in our county the state
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 2: of Florida. If we spend more time with health care
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 2: and mental health related issue, we probably will have had
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 2: less violent crime because some of these persons who go
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 2: out and commit violent crime their mentally ill with the
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 2: moss that was just attacked they or so ago in California.
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 2: I suspected those young people, those teenagers have been radicalized.
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 2: I suspect that they probably were in need of some
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 2: mental health counseling and treatment. But it's too late for that.
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 2: You know, they acquired guns and went and killed innocent people. Well,
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: if they had gotten the right treatment, maybe some people
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 2: would be alive today. In my experience, I responded to
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 2: these scenes where I've had law enforcement officers who were
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 2: seriously injured, shot and killed in the line of duty
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 2: because they were confronted by a person who was mentally ill,
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 2: who had a god, and so all of those types
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 2: of things we have to get serious about talking about,
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: I believe, as a nation, as a state, how to
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 2: more effectively address some of those types of issues. Because
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 2: if we reduce crime, we reduce recidivism. By getting people
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 2: healthy again, we reduce costs. And so that's what I do.
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: I take the cast savings and then I.
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 3: Use it for some some other needs.
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 1: But my mother lives in Seminole County, so I hear
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 1: about this a lot, which is the following she gets
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 1: a new insurance company. It seems like every six months,
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 1: right every year. You know she doesn't want to change
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 1: insurance companies. Insurance companies pull out or they decide they
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 1: can't cover homeowners. And we know why the problem is
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 1: this is you said it earlier. Florida's a peninsula and
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 1: it's just going to get more storms. There doesn't seem
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 1: to be a good answer. How do either entice more
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 1: insurance companies to come to Florida and write policies to
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 1: create better competition and hopefully lower prices, or do you
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 1: subsidize And there doesn't seem to be a good consensus.
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 1: And I don't know if there's a good answer. But
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: what's your plan?
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 2: Well, I think you have to do really four things. One,
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 2: I do believe that Florida needs to incentivize profit casually
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 2: insurance companies moving in in the state of Florida, Okay,
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 2: through our regulatory authority. I believe that there's an opportunity
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 2: to do that, to create more competition by creating incentives
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 2: if that is reducing if they move into the state,
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 2: creating a center for reduction and property taxes for them
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 2: or business taxes for them. There's an opportunity to do that.
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 2: The second thing that if we create this competition, typically
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 2: competition drives price down. If we do are successful in that,
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 2: then the second thing that we should do is require
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 2: that when they make profit in this state beyond a
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 2: certain point, they should have to be required and reinvested
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: in the State of Florida in at orda since they
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 2: get the incentives. The third thing that happens in the
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: State of Florida is we have a lot of fraud.
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: There are a number of people who file fraudalent claims,
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 2: and the State of Florida doesn't do a really good
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 2: job of investigating the fraud that happens. At least three
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 2: different state agencies in the State of Florida stigation that's
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 2: related here. In addition to those, private and insurance companies
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 2: have their own fraud investigators. So for me, I want
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 2: to consolidate the responsibility for the investigation of fraud and
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 2: to launch state agency and then I law the person's
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 2: the staff to focus in that area. Right now, some
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 2: of our law enforcement in the State of Florida is
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 2: being pulled off of doing investigations and they're doing immigration
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 2: and customers enforcement. Right They're doing what the federal government
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 2: really should be doing and not what the states should
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 2: be doing. And then the next thing that I think,
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 2: we have a state that is heavily influenced by developers.
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 2: They kind of controlled Tallahassee, Uh, they go and we
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 2: see legislation that is introduced that preemps local government authority
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 2: it comes to land use related decisions. And when you
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 2: take the decision making out of the hands of those
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 2: local authorities and you invested really in the influence of
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 2: the legislators and the developers, we are building and places
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 2: that we shouldn't be on this peninsula. We are not
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 2: adequately recognizing the consequences of sea level rise and global
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 2: warming and all of those are things that are real,
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 2: and I believe through our regulatory authority, we can build
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 2: to a higher standard where we build when we're not
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 2: building homes, whereas in flood zones and what have you
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 2: there since you grew up in Miami, When I go
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 2: to Miami, I see all types of calamities there because
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 2: the building codes were not consistent, they're irregular. There are
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 2: people who were allowed to build too close to wetlands,
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 2: on wetlands and the like, and so from I believe
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 2: from a sustainability perspective, we have not done what we
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 2: should be doing in the state of Florida to protect
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 2: our environment, and so we have to make some improvements there.
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 2: So we do those things, harden the target for when
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 2: the hurricane made the storm comes, then we can reduce calls.
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 2: We can't do a lot of job.
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 1: Should the state? Should the state ban manufactured homes? And
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 1: I say this, I'll give you an example. I had Rick.
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 1: I remember after what the hurricane that hit, So I say,
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 1: the hurricane so many hurricanes. I think it was Charlotte
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 1: or I'm probably confusing Charlotte County, but it was one
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 1: of the hurricanes that sort of came over Fort Myers, Naples, Charlotte,
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 1: that area of the state, and Collier County had banned
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 1: manufacture housing. Charlotte County had not. Even though the hurricanes
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 1: eye went over Collier there was more damage than Charlotte.
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 1: It's because those manufactured homes just can't withstand even the
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 1: category ones versus Collier County had less property damage because
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 1: they had high It was by county higher standards, and
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 1: you know it was I remember the senators got made
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 1: this point. Then I said, well, then should we not
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 1: have manufactured housing? And he sort of stopped. You know,
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 1: wasn't going to do that. And I understand the hesitancy
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 1: because a lot of developers, you know where it does
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 1: make homes cost more if you ban manufacture housing. And
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 1: here we are having a crunch on that. Where are
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 1: you on that?
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 2: Well, I do think that some of these manufactured housing
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 2: posies that I'm seeing now they can stand a Category
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 2: two of three with this move modern technology in the
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 2: way they construct some of them. But clearly in coastal communities.
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 2: Coastal communities are more likely to have a direct hit
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 2: from hurricane versus an inland community, like my account. But
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 2: in two thousand and four we had three hurricanes major
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 2: member category hurricanes go across our count and we're inland,
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 2: our manufactured homes really fare well. So I think the
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 2: conversation has to be about where you build and what
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 2: you build. And so I believe that through having some
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 2: type of guidance from the State of Florida. I said earlier,
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 2: my stylar leadership is to bring subject matter experts together
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 2: and this is gonna This is an area that I
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 2: would love to tackle, is to do a full reset
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 2: and review of Florida's building codes and adopt some standards
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 2: that make sense, and some of those standards need to
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 2: be based upon geographical location. Some of those standards need
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 2: to be based upon affordability, because some of the tiny
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 2: homes arecessory dwelling units that are being built now. They
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 2: are they're pretty good. And I can tell you in
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 2: our inland counting, our manufactured homes have fared well historically.
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 2: So there are some things that you can do to
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 2: mitigate the damage how you require them to be constructed.
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 2: But then you know, if you're out on the coastal community,
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 2: you know there's some challenges there. So I think there's
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 2: some room for change. And so these are the types
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 2: of things I enjoy tackling. We know that that's a
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 2: serious issue, but to get the best outcome where we
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 2: don't introvertently drive up the cost of rent payments that
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 2: are already through the rules, I want to make sure
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 2: we have the right solution and use modern technology and
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 2: making these types of decisions.
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 1: All right, I want to I always like to end
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 1: on a little lighter note. But before I get to
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 1: the lighter note, the subject matter that I'm going to
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 1: end on actually has gotten a little heavier over the
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 1: last twenty four hours, the NAACP is calling on African
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 1: American high school students to essentially boycott state go to
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 1: going to state universities in the South, in states that
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 1: are remapping and getting rid of predominantly African American congressional seats.
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 1: That would you know that, you know how important college
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 1: football is in the state of Florida. And it's certainly
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 1: an interesting idea that the NAACP is coming with, And
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 1: I understand where they're coming from on this. You think
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 1: that would be fruitful, You think that would be useful
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 1: in a positive protest.
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 2: I believe that what happened when people get chronically stressed,
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 2: they sought to extraordinary responses. And what the NAACP is
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 2: doing is responding to the extraordinary circumstances that we find
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 2: ourselves in. Where we live in a nation where the
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 2: President by executive water did away no a do women
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 2: business enterprise related programs. We live in a state where
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 2: the governor and the legislature passed legislation that prohibits local
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 2: governments from investing in diversity, equity and inclusion types of programs.
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 2: As if the playing field has been level to where
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 2: we see these gerementary district districts that is underway. This
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 2: has caused the response that the NAACP has join in. Now,
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 2: I'm a lifelong member of the NAACP, and I wouldn't
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 2: have some of the civil liberties that I have. I
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 2: wouldn't have enjoyed some of the successes I have today
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 2: but for the fight that the na a CP of
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 2: the NACP has been involved in. However, have I said
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 2: all over that I do think that that's not sustainable. Okay,
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 2: Here in the state of Florida. When our governor adopted
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 2: some of the policies that he's adopted, the NAACP said,
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 2: you know, supported a band on historically black college and
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 2: universities coming into our state to do business, with national
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 2: conferences coming into our state to do business. Because I
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 2: represent the number one tourist destination in North America, I
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 2: knew that that would not really benefit my constituents in tourism.
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 2: You know, ninety plus percent of the people who work
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 2: in the industry, they are black and brown people. And
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 2: if our tourism in Florida goes elsewhere, we potentially put
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 2: people out of work who they are fighting for to
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 2: have a seat at the table. And so sometimes what
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 2: you see is when these narratives come about, they're motivated
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 2: by different reasons. Sometimes it's geography. There are other states,
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 2: there are other regions that would love to have, uh
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 2: the economy that Florida enjoys, and UH, sometimes decisions are made,
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 2: sometimes very short sighted uh and not looking at the
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 2: long long term goal. Because quite frankly, if Florida's economy, UH,
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 2: if these football players are higher education institutions, UH, suddenly
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 2: you know, stop having black athletes. What you're going to
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 2: have is you'll have segregated institutions. And some of our
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 2: largest uh institutions, higher education institutions in this state are
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 2: public institutions. The University of Florida, UH, the University of
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 2: Central Florida is the largest right in Orlando by student
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 2: by the enrollment Florida State University where I went, Well,
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 2: you just decimated some of those institutions. If these players
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 2: decided to go somewhere else, couple with the nil and
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 2: the professional payments that these athletes who are supposedly not
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 2: yet professionals, you know, UH, the money is there. I
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 2: think that it's not sustainable long term, and we could
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 2: introvertently hurt people who you don't intend to hurt by
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 2: by by the response. So we'll have to see. That's
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 2: that's kind of my position as governor. I would do
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 2: everything that I could to keep our economy training, to
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 2: keep business coming in, uh, to keep our universities, a
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 2: focus on educating, and get out of the cultural wars
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 2: in the politics. The banning of the boots, all of
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 2: that is just dividing us along racial lines. And so
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 2: but I understand where they are because the actions that
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 2: our state has taken is the visit and so that's
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 2: the pushback that the NAACP finds themselves in today.
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 1: Well, when you're in Orlando, that's Gator country, is it not?
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 1: It must be tough for seminals.
• 1:50:32
  Speaker 2: No, this is uh, it's probably as many seminoles as
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 2: there are Gators here.
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 4: Well that's good because go to Gainesville's and you want
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 4: to do that.
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, for that, but uh, but we we have our
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 2: fair share here because the University of Central Florida is
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 2: the largest public institution in the state of Florida.
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 1: You've watched that school go from literally a commuter to
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 1: your school right to what it is today.
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 2: It's this is kind of like night country around Central Florida. Uh,
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 2: you know, their support.
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 1: That's probably better Orange County politics.
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you know. So you know with space exploration, commercial
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 2: space space exploration being what it is that's taking off.
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 2: You know, NASA's has a substantial number of this employ
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 2: who will graduates from the University of Central Florida.
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 1: Uh, Mayor Demis is good to meet you. I look
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 1: forward to talking with you down the road if you
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 1: make it to the next.
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 5: Round, I look forward to it. All right, my friend,
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 5: let's all thank you, sir. So that was Jerry Demings.
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 1: He is one of two candidates on the Democratic side
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 1: of the isle. There's actually a three way primary on
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 1: the Republican side too, with Byron Donalds being the big
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 1: leader of that race. A huge amount of money that
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 1: Donald's has been raising, so it doesn't look like the
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 1: primary is going to be much up. He took the
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 1: early endorsement of Donald Trump. The question is whether either
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 1: David Jolly or Jerry Demis can make this a very
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 1: competitive race if they're the Democratic nominee. Maybe you know
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 1: you've good news is you've heard from Jolly, you've heard
• 1:52:15
  Speaker 1: from Demings. I would argue they're sort of coming at
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 1: this slightly differently, right. I think Demings is coming at
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 1: this saying, hey, I know how to govern. I've been governing.
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 1: I've governed one of the largest counties in the state.
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 1: I've governed one of the largest police forces in the state.
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 1: I have all the qualifications you would expect to be governor.
• 1:52:33
  Speaker 1: I think Jolly comes at it more of saying, hey,
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 1: I used to serve with him, I used to work
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 1: with the Republicans that I can tell you that sort
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 1: of thing, and we'll see how this works. I think Demings,
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 1: in a competitive primary, could have an advantage with African
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 1: American voters. Jolly coming from Tampa Bay, that's not a
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 1: bad place to be either. And he's got the help
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 1: of the Graham family, Gwen Graham in particular, who was
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 1: almost the nominee for governor back in twenty eighteen. So
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 1: it's going to be I think the question is how
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 1: competitive is Florida going to get. There's definitely a lot
• 1:53:10
  Speaker 1: of anxiety on the right side of the isle. Republicans
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 1: are a little nervous. I think the whole property tax
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 1: there this. If you follow Florida politics at all, you
• 1:53:20
  Speaker 1: may have heard he's trying to basically Aronda stants trying
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 1: to put a reference on the ballot that would start
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 1: to phase out property taxes for people of a certain
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 1: income level and of a certain value of their house.
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 1: It's pretty clear why he's trying to get this on
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 1: the ballot this cycle. They are desperate to try to
• 1:53:37
  Speaker 1: motivate people to the polls. The biggest problem Republicans are
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 1: having across the country. Florida is no different. We've seen
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 1: it in these special elections. It's can you motivate the
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 1: Trump voter to show up when Trump's not on the ballot.
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 1: So DeSantis is hoping to add a property tax, hoping
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 1: that somehow if he can get this on the ballot.
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 1: He's working through it now. It'll gut local government, folks,
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 1: and all it's going to do. It's not going to
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 1: cut your taxes. The most likely result is that local
• 1:54:04
  Speaker 1: governments will have no choice but to perhaps jack up
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 1: sales taxes. And there'll be all sorts of different ways
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 1: that you will see taxes being raised. But this will
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 1: look like a shiny metal object, right, and it's it's
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 1: it is, it is. It is one of those things
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 1: that looks like it's saving you money and I it's
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 1: I'm in New Jersey tried something like this. They made
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 1: a big deal out of a statewide cut, and the
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 1: local governments had no choice but to jack up taxes,
• 1:54:34
  Speaker 1: and so people's overall tax will ended up going up,
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 1: not down. It was like Donald Trump's tax cut in
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 1: twenty eighteen. Every taxes went up, then go down. He
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 1: was you know, sort of you know, he was able
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 1: to cut taxes in one place, but then it got
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 1: rid of deductions in another, and then the money needed
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 1: to be replaced and he got taxed again. So the
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 1: but the big picture here is they're desperate to get
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 1: this on the ballot beca to get the voters out.
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 1: So this is why obviously, being a Fluoriding I spend
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 1: a little more. I have a little more interest in
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 1: Florida politics. But I also think Florida is a state
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 1: that you can never take your eye off of. There
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 1: are always a half a million new voters every election cycle,
• 1:55:16
  Speaker 1: and they can easily change the direction of the state.
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 1: That is why before the last cycle and a half,
• 1:55:22
  Speaker 1: Florida was the most competitive state over the last two decades.
• 1:55:26
  Speaker 1: And it's more likely to get back there than it
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 1: is to get redder. That's something you can probably take
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 1: to the bank. All Right. It's top five list time.
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 4: Top five top.
• 1:55:43
  Speaker 1: And I got an intriguing one today. It's sort of
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 1: built off of the news that Donald Trump is trying
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 1: to replace Tulsea Gabbert with one of his personal you
• 1:55:54
  Speaker 1: might call him weaponization zars. Bill Poultzi was that over
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 1: you know, who was using a perch over at the
• 1:56:01
  Speaker 1: Housing Authority to investigate people, to try to get Lisa
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 1: Cook on the FED fire, to try to get some
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 1: members of Congress that were enemies of Donald Trump in
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 1: trouble over mortgages. Basically, he was clearly violating some privacy,
• 1:56:20
  Speaker 1: sort of weaponizing a government agency in order to do
• 1:56:25
  Speaker 1: some political bidding. So what does Donald Trump do. He
• 1:56:28
  Speaker 1: wants to appoint him to replace Tulca Gabbard, who has
• 1:56:32
  Speaker 1: resigned Slash been fired from DNI, And we're going to
• 1:56:36
  Speaker 1: talk about DNI here in a second. Well, what's interesting
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 1: is that almost immediately the Republican Party started pushing back
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 1: on this. And what's astonishing is what John Thune said
• 1:56:51
  Speaker 1: in the immediate aftermath of finding out that he was
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 1: the nominee. John Thune told reporters quote we don't need
• 1:57:00
  Speaker 1: a weaponized Director of National Intelligence. Chuck Schumer didn't say this.
• 1:57:07
  Speaker 1: John Thune, the Republican Senate leader, said this his immediate reaction,
• 1:57:15
  Speaker 1: he did him and Hall. Look, there's most of the
• 1:57:19
  Speaker 1: actions Donald Trump has taken in personnel or something that
• 1:57:22
  Speaker 1: John Thune hasn't been in favor of, but he always
• 1:57:25
  Speaker 1: dances around it. Well, you know that's we're going to
• 1:57:28
  Speaker 1: let the Senate work its will, or he would hide
• 1:57:31
  Speaker 1: behind one of those cliches. There was no mincing words here.
• 1:57:37
  Speaker 1: We don't need a weaponized his quote director. Now some
• 1:57:43
  Speaker 1: of you might say, well, Tulsa Gabbard used her purchase
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 1: D and I to do all this phony beloney twenty
• 1:57:48
  Speaker 1: twenty election stuff. So we've already had a weaponized Director
• 1:57:53
  Speaker 1: of National Intelligence. Now, look, I think the bigger issue
• 1:57:58
  Speaker 1: is this is a useless position. The only thing it
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 1: is useful for is foreign adversaries getting a crack at
• 1:58:06
  Speaker 1: an individual person who happens to sit at the nexus
• 1:58:10
  Speaker 1: of all intelligence information supposedly coming into one. So there,
• 1:58:13
  Speaker 1: you know, after nine to eleven there was worry about
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 1: stovepipe of information. The intention was to make the Department
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 1: of the Director of National intelligence, He said, essentially the
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 1: head of the intelligence community. It may be on an
• 1:58:26
  Speaker 1: ORC chart, but it is not. The CIA has won
• 1:58:28
  Speaker 1: this turf battle. I told you this before. They won
• 1:58:31
  Speaker 1: this turf battle. Essentially right after Obama's first DNI failed,
• 1:58:37
  Speaker 1: and his failure just everything shifted back to the CIA.
• 1:58:42
  Speaker 1: Barack Obama put his chief intelligence picks at the CIA,
• 1:58:47
  Speaker 1: not a DNI. Donald Trump did the same thing in
• 1:58:50
  Speaker 1: the first term. Joe Biden did it and his first
• 1:58:53
  Speaker 1: one term, and in some ways Donald Trump did it
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 1: again in this second term by moving by putting Ratcliffe
• 1:59:01
  Speaker 1: at DANI and putting somebody who couldn't have been more
• 1:59:03
  Speaker 1: un Well, that's not true, right, she was incredibly unqualified
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 1: Telsea Gabbard for the job. Bill Polti actually is making
• 1:59:11
  Speaker 1: Telsea Gabbert look a bit qualified. Long story here, This
• 1:59:16
  Speaker 1: is a kind of my big wind up here in
• 1:59:17
  Speaker 1: the top five list, Why am I signaling out Poulty
• 1:59:20
  Speaker 1: and why am I singling out John Thune? Because you're
• 1:59:22
  Speaker 1: starting to really see that if Republicans want to push
• 1:59:26
  Speaker 1: back at Donald Trump, they can, And in this second term,
• 1:59:31
  Speaker 1: we've seen a handful of times where not just disappointing
• 1:59:36
  Speaker 1: rhetoric where actions actually changed because of semi unified pushback
• 1:59:44
  Speaker 1: by congressional Republicans beyond just complaining about what he was
• 1:59:49
  Speaker 1: doing and not anonyesst not anything like that. So I thought,
• 1:59:54
  Speaker 1: with my top five lists, I will do the five
• 1:59:57
  Speaker 1: instances where republiclkens have actually successfully pushed back at Donald
• 2:00:04
  Speaker 1: Trump and made him change, either pull back a nomination,
• 2:00:09
  Speaker 1: change a direction of a policy, or retreat. Bill Poulty
• 2:00:15
  Speaker 1: doesn't make the list yet. He hasn't been He hasn't
• 2:00:18
  Speaker 1: been his nomination have been pulled yet. So it's Poulty's
• 2:00:21
  Speaker 1: not going to make my list, but it's my opportunity
• 2:00:23
  Speaker 1: to bring this one up. And by the way, for
• 2:00:25
  Speaker 1: those of you, Bill Polty doesn't have a lot of
• 2:00:27
  Speaker 1: friends within the administration. Poulty is the guy that's got
• 2:00:29
  Speaker 1: Bessn't threatened to punch in the face because he was
• 2:00:32
  Speaker 1: upset at what Pulty was doing in harassing somebody that
• 2:00:37
  Speaker 1: bessnt cared about that was trying to get a job
• 2:00:39
  Speaker 1: in the administration. It was clear that Poulty was just
• 2:00:42
  Speaker 1: using the government databases as basically personal opposition research files.
• 2:00:47
  Speaker 1: Imagine putting that at d N. I I mean it is.
• 2:00:50
  Speaker 1: This is completely irresponsible, and so kudos to John Thune.
• 2:00:54
  Speaker 1: Do immediately say we can't have a weaponize director of
• 2:00:58
  Speaker 1: National Intelligence. He went right there. No Democrat has to
• 2:01:02
  Speaker 1: say the word. This is the Senate Republican leader saying it.
• 2:01:06
  Speaker 1: So Poltes's nomination is dead. The Senate Majority leader isn't
• 2:01:10
  Speaker 1: going to vote for him. We already know the Yolo
• 2:01:12
  Speaker 1: caucus in the Republican side of the aisles are going
• 2:01:14
  Speaker 1: to vote for him. So it's dead. But it's not
• 2:01:15
  Speaker 1: dead yet. So it doesn't crack my top five lists. So,
• 2:01:18
  Speaker 1: but where are the five instances where you can tangibly
• 2:01:21
  Speaker 1: say Republican pushback made Trump change directions Number five in
• 2:01:27
  Speaker 1: the let's see Epstein files right. In some ways, it's
• 2:01:31
  Speaker 1: one of the cleanest forced reversals that we've seen in
• 2:01:34
  Speaker 1: the Trump era. He personally whipped against the discharge petition.
• 2:01:38
  Speaker 1: He was trying to prevent the files from being released,
• 2:01:43
  Speaker 1: prevent the discharge petition from happening. It didn't work. At
• 2:01:48
  Speaker 1: the last minute, when he saw that it was going
• 2:01:51
  Speaker 1: to pass, he flipped and said, Okay, they've passed it,
• 2:01:55
  Speaker 1: go ahead and released the files. Well, we know he
• 2:01:58
  Speaker 1: didn't like it. Why because you know he was so motivated.
• 2:02:01
  Speaker 1: The only reason he went after Thomas Massey was not
• 2:02:05
  Speaker 1: over his lack of support for Israel, although that certainly
• 2:02:09
  Speaker 1: won the President allies in helping find financial resources to
• 2:02:13
  Speaker 1: defeat Thomas Massey in a primary. He went after him
• 2:02:16
  Speaker 1: for one reason, because he was the chief Republican making
• 2:02:20
  Speaker 1: this bipartisan. And he went after Marjorie Taylor green and
• 2:02:23
  Speaker 1: he threatened a primary Jones of Loan Bolberg. And in
• 2:02:26
  Speaker 1: the threat of all of that, in the face of
• 2:02:27
  Speaker 1: all of that, these folks still did it. They still
• 2:02:31
  Speaker 1: pushed back and you would see, I mean, the House
• 2:02:35
  Speaker 1: passed the bill that distarched position eventually four in twenty
• 2:02:37
  Speaker 1: seven to one. So have we gotten everything? We don't know,
• 2:02:43
  Speaker 1: do we, But we certainly have gotten more stuff than
• 2:02:48
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump wanted to see released. And again I go
• 2:02:51
  Speaker 1: back to he's petrified of this story. We have yet
• 2:02:56
  Speaker 1: to find the thing in the file that makes him
• 2:02:58
  Speaker 1: so petrified in the story, but we do know he's
• 2:03:01
  Speaker 1: petrified of the story. That's number five in the list,
• 2:03:03
  Speaker 1: number four, his threat to take over Greenland, right, And
• 2:03:09
  Speaker 1: it was some of the more loud Republican opposition and
• 2:03:14
  Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell went on the Senate floor and warned that
• 2:03:16
  Speaker 1: it would shatter the trust of all of our allies,
• 2:03:20
  Speaker 1: and he was hearing pushback all over. And this is
• 2:03:23
  Speaker 1: when this instigated the essentially the Mark Carney split, the
• 2:03:27
  Speaker 1: fact that Middle Powers and allies are cutting deals with
• 2:03:30
  Speaker 1: China out from under the United States. It's did enormous
• 2:03:34
  Speaker 1: damage just his threat to take over Greenland. But he
• 2:03:38
  Speaker 1: finally gave up the push in January, and he had
• 2:03:41
  Speaker 1: to give up the push because he wasn't getting any
• 2:03:43
  Speaker 1: Republican support for this. Now the White House calls that
• 2:03:46
  Speaker 1: it climbed down and they just simply say it's for now.
• 2:03:50
  Speaker 1: But I think it qualifies in the list, and that's
• 2:03:52
  Speaker 1: why I put it at number four. You've noticed Cuba
• 2:03:55
  Speaker 1: maybe on the list, but Greenland is no longer on
• 2:03:57
  Speaker 1: the list. J Powell is number three on this list
• 2:04:04
  Speaker 1: where you saw successful Republican pushback. Basically Tom Tillis, who
• 2:04:08
  Speaker 1: had the ability to do this, said that he was
• 2:04:12
  Speaker 1: going to block every FED nominee over this manufactured investigation
• 2:04:18
  Speaker 1: into then FED Chair J. Powell over the over the
• 2:04:24
  Speaker 1: remodeling of the Federal Reserve offices and Tillis stuck to
• 2:04:31
  Speaker 1: his guns, and after the loss in the attempt by
• 2:04:35
  Speaker 1: the administration to fire Lisa Cook on the Supreme Court
• 2:04:37
  Speaker 1: said that they couldn't do that, and you had And
• 2:04:42
  Speaker 1: then finally they realized they weren't going to get a
• 2:04:45
  Speaker 1: new FED chair unless because Tillis wasn't going to let
• 2:04:49
  Speaker 1: it happen, and he had the power in the committee
• 2:04:51
  Speaker 1: that he sat at to do that. And so the
• 2:04:55
  Speaker 1: Department of Justice in April twenty fourth drops the probe
• 2:04:57
  Speaker 1: on Palell. Donald Trump gets his nominee, and Jay Powell
• 2:05:04
  Speaker 1: stays on the FED and Lisa Cook is still on
• 2:05:06
  Speaker 1: the FED. So this is a case where Republican pushback worked.
• 2:05:10
  Speaker 1: It made him change behavior, and it made him pull
• 2:05:13
  Speaker 1: back on that weaponization attempt to target j Powell. Number four,
• 2:05:20
  Speaker 1: excuse me, number two on my list, not number four,
• 2:05:23
  Speaker 1: number my fourth one, but number two. I'm going in
• 2:05:25
  Speaker 1: reverse order here. The Matt Gates nomination. Now, there's a
• 2:05:29
  Speaker 1: part of me that believes Mat Gates was never intended
• 2:05:31
  Speaker 1: to be a confirmed Attorney general. That the whole point
• 2:05:34
  Speaker 1: of Matt Gates was to basically throw you know, throw
• 2:05:40
  Speaker 1: some you know, throw a bleeding fish to the sharks
• 2:05:43
  Speaker 1: let him gnaw on it, and then meanwhile, you you know,
• 2:05:47
  Speaker 1: you let you get hag Seth, Kennedy and gathered the
• 2:05:51
  Speaker 1: three incredibly unqualified cabinet secretaries to be confirmed. So if
• 2:05:56
  Speaker 1: you wanted to push back on me and say, well,
• 2:05:58
  Speaker 1: the Gates thing was that it's possible that that's what
• 2:06:00
  Speaker 1: it was, right, that Gates was never an actual intentional
• 2:06:03
  Speaker 1: nominee to be Attorney General. But the universal pushback, and
• 2:06:10
  Speaker 1: yes it was technically before he actually became president, it
• 2:06:14
  Speaker 1: was universal, and it was threatening to derail everything from
• 2:06:18
  Speaker 1: the start if he actually stuck to his guns and
• 2:06:21
  Speaker 1: tried to get him through. Now, I'll be honest, that's
• 2:06:25
  Speaker 1: the sliding doors that I'm always very curious about. Could
• 2:06:28
  Speaker 1: Trump You know, how stiff were the spines of the
• 2:06:32
  Speaker 1: Republicans at that moment in time. There's no doubt in
• 2:06:35
  Speaker 1: my mind Matt Gates never would get through today. But
• 2:06:38
  Speaker 1: if he'd really twisted arms, I mean, I look, I
• 2:06:40
  Speaker 1: never thought Pete hag Seth would get confirmed as Defense
• 2:06:43
  Speaker 1: Secretary based on the conversations I had, based on the
• 2:06:48
  Speaker 1: emphatic opposition that existed on the Republican side of the aisle.
• 2:06:53
  Speaker 1: And yet Donald Trump and his cronies were able to
• 2:06:57
  Speaker 1: intimidate a handful of Republican senators to cave. So that
• 2:07:02
  Speaker 1: has always been a question that hangs over the head
• 2:07:04
  Speaker 1: for me. On Gates that said, it's still important to
• 2:07:09
  Speaker 1: put on the list, and that's why I put it
• 2:07:10
  Speaker 1: in number two because it was early, but it was
• 2:07:16
  Speaker 1: one can only imagine what MATC. Gates would have done
• 2:07:18
  Speaker 1: its attorney job. But number one just happened, and it
• 2:07:23
  Speaker 1: appears to be the death of this anti weaponization fund.
• 2:07:27
  Speaker 1: The Republicans in Congress basically said we're going to stop
• 2:07:30
  Speaker 1: working with you, We're going to stop legislating, We're going
• 2:07:33
  Speaker 1: to stop these reconciliation bills in order to fund DHS
• 2:07:36
  Speaker 1: and fund some other things. And he clearly didn't want
• 2:07:40
  Speaker 1: to pull back. But after the judicial ruling that made
• 2:07:44
  Speaker 1: it clear that this was going to be exposed as
• 2:07:47
  Speaker 1: a shady, intentional deal that somehow was cooked up by
• 2:07:51
  Speaker 1: the president's personal lawyer, who, for some ungodly reason is
• 2:07:55
  Speaker 1: technically the acting Attorney general. That in itself, right, you
• 2:07:59
  Speaker 1: want to talk about using the plot, we have lost
• 2:08:01
  Speaker 1: the plot here that we've allowed somebody's personal defense attorney
• 2:08:05
  Speaker 1: to become the chief weaponizer of the Department of Justice.
• 2:08:09
  Speaker 1: But unfortunately that's what we have here in mister carte Blanche.
• 2:08:15
  Speaker 1: But guess what there is clearly, I mean the defeat
• 2:08:19
  Speaker 1: that Look, this was an e this was enormously unpopular.
• 2:08:24
  Speaker 1: You can argue this was easy to do, but it
• 2:08:26
  Speaker 1: also is important you know the timing of this. Right,
• 2:08:30
  Speaker 1: most filing deadlines have passed. I think every filing Not
• 2:08:33
  Speaker 1: quite every filing deadline. I think there's a couple of more,
• 2:08:35
  Speaker 1: but most filing deadlines have passed. So it is safe
• 2:08:38
  Speaker 1: to oppose Donald Trump. You may say, wow, he could
• 2:08:41
  Speaker 1: still rally a primary challenger in twenty eight He could,
• 2:08:45
  Speaker 1: there's no doubt, but he's incredibly unpopular right now. And
• 2:08:49
  Speaker 1: if they lose both houses of Congress, his own more
• 2:08:53
  Speaker 1: people in his own party are going to start turning
• 2:08:55
  Speaker 1: against him. Not in droves, but is you know, an
• 2:08:59
  Speaker 1: erosion of sorts. So I think you're starting to see
• 2:09:02
  Speaker 1: I think the the the death of this, essentially, this
• 2:09:06
  Speaker 1: weaponization fund that they that that Donald Trump and Todd
• 2:09:11
  Speaker 1: Blanche are trying to concoct using taxpayer dollars, your money
• 2:09:14
  Speaker 1: in my money, in order to pay off January sixth
• 2:09:17
  Speaker 1: rioters that apparently was an enormous bridge too far for this.
• 2:09:27
  Speaker 1: So look, it's there's two lessons they take away from this.
• 2:09:32
  Speaker 1: One is they can push back on him if they
• 2:09:34
  Speaker 1: want this idea. They're powerless, they're not. Yes, it can
• 2:09:37
  Speaker 1: be career painful to the career, but it's not totally destructive.
• 2:09:44
  Speaker 1: But this is how guardrails work. It's not pretty, they
• 2:09:49
  Speaker 1: get dented up, it gets kind of ugly, but that's
• 2:09:55
  Speaker 1: you know, they're not it's not a clean it's not
• 2:09:57
  Speaker 1: a guardrail that's going to make you stay straight on
• 2:09:59
  Speaker 1: the tracks. But they're there. And I know many of
• 2:10:04
  Speaker 1: you were concerned they didn't exist at all. You know,
• 2:10:08
  Speaker 1: you can sit here and say, but they didn't do this,
• 2:10:10
  Speaker 1: and they've let this go, and they've let this go,
• 2:10:12
  Speaker 1: and they've let this go. Yeah, the question is what
• 2:10:17
  Speaker 1: are they going to do with the really bad stuff? Well,
• 2:10:21
  Speaker 1: guess what with the really bad stuff? They stood up.
• 2:10:25
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to sit here and give them a
• 2:10:27
  Speaker 1: gold star for essentially doing the bare minimum herror, but
• 2:10:32
  Speaker 1: it's pretty important for the Republican, for the system that
• 2:10:35
  Speaker 1: there is a line that can't be crossed.
• 2:10:38
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 2:10:39
  Speaker 1: The line moved, the line shifted, but there's still a line.
• 2:10:45
  Speaker 1: By the way, you need one more reason why, Bill
• 2:10:50
  Speaker 1: POULTI will never be a confirmed head of the Department
• 2:10:55
  Speaker 1: of National as Director of National Intelligence. And I'll I will,
• 2:11:01
  Speaker 1: I will eat the cover. I will. Let's see, I
• 2:11:05
  Speaker 1: will eat the cover of a Roger Stone book if
• 2:11:10
  Speaker 1: i'm if he's actually becomes a confirmed Director of National Intelligence,
• 2:11:15
  Speaker 1: Bill Poulton. So why am I saying Roger Stone? Because
• 2:11:18
  Speaker 1: a guess who's being credited with convincing Donald Trump to
• 2:11:22
  Speaker 1: a point, Bill Poulting to that position. Guess who saved
• 2:11:27
  Speaker 1: Tulsea Gabbard a couple of times before she finally decided
• 2:11:31
  Speaker 1: to walk. It was Roger Stone. I think it's a
• 2:11:38
  Speaker 1: fair question to ask why Roger Stone cares so much
• 2:11:41
  Speaker 1: about this particular position that serves as the nexus of
• 2:11:44
  Speaker 1: all intelligence that comes into the United States government. As
• 2:11:51
  Speaker 1: I've hinted at before, if I were running a foreign
• 2:11:56
  Speaker 1: intelligence agency and I were looking to find somebody to
• 2:12:04
  Speaker 1: flip or to use or to coerce into giving me intelligence,
• 2:12:09
  Speaker 1: it would be in the office with the Director of
• 2:12:11
  Speaker 1: National Intelligence. So you want to talk about this ain't
• 2:12:14
  Speaker 1: a yellow flag for me. It's a big frickin red
• 2:12:17
  Speaker 1: Flag of Roger Stone is working with Bill Poulting that
• 2:12:22
  Speaker 1: Guaran that is likely a death sentence now for Poultice
• 2:12:27
  Speaker 1: nomination at Vienna. So there's your top five lists. The
• 2:12:33
  Speaker 1: five things that Republicans successfully got Trump to change, pull back,
• 2:12:41
  Speaker 1: or change his mind. Number one that weaponization fund, Number
• 2:12:45
  Speaker 1: two Matt Gates's attorney general. Number three, the probe into j. Powell,
• 2:12:49
  Speaker 1: Number four Greenland, and number five we think the full
• 2:12:55
  Speaker 1: release of the Epstein class. Ask Chuck, all right, let's
• 2:13:10
  Speaker 1: do a little asked Chuck. First question comes from Michael
• 2:13:13
  Speaker 1: T Chicago, Illinois. He goes, Hey, love the podcast, especially
• 2:13:16
  Speaker 1: the recent Common Cause interview. You asked for some reform ideas,
• 2:13:19
  Speaker 1: and I wanted to throw out a few, including one
• 2:13:22
  Speaker 1: banning congressional stock trading, two expanding the House, three improving
• 2:13:26
  Speaker 1: member travel. I'd like to understand that more improving member travel,
• 2:13:31
  Speaker 1: and five strengthening the FEC, the Federal Elections Commission. Curious,
• 2:13:34
  Speaker 1: which of these or others do you think are most
• 2:13:36
  Speaker 1: realistic in today's environment. I'd like to understand more on
• 2:13:39
  Speaker 1: improving member travel what you mean by that, per se,
• 2:13:44
  Speaker 1: because it's we're all right, you know, it's it's you
• 2:13:48
  Speaker 1: know some members, you know, you live across country. How
• 2:13:51
  Speaker 1: often do you go back and forth? Can you make
• 2:13:54
  Speaker 1: it easier for members to do their work in their
• 2:13:56
  Speaker 1: district offices? Considering how expensive it is go back and forth?
• 2:13:59
  Speaker 1: How time can assuming it is things like that. But anyway,
• 2:14:03
  Speaker 1: I will confess Michael that I'm not quite sure the
• 2:14:06
  Speaker 1: reform you're asking about an improving member travel, what the
• 2:14:09
  Speaker 1: specific thing is. But let me take the other three
• 2:14:12
  Speaker 1: Congressional stock trade. I think it's Look, this is this,
• 2:14:17
  Speaker 1: This isn't hard to implement, and it seems to me
• 2:14:21
  Speaker 1: that it is that this is a this We need
• 2:14:26
  Speaker 1: a structure, We need a system, because this isn't just
• 2:14:31
  Speaker 1: about I mean, the fact is, cabinet secretary shouldn't be
• 2:14:35
  Speaker 1: stock trading. Anybody pulling a six figure government salary as
• 2:14:39
  Speaker 1: a political appointee or an elected political representative shouldn't be
• 2:14:44
  Speaker 1: trading stocks on this. That doesn't mean they shouldn't be
• 2:14:47
  Speaker 1: allowed to have investments, but they should not have it
• 2:14:50
  Speaker 1: should be and you can actually I mean, look at
• 2:14:53
  Speaker 1: this point, I'm not I know some of you're gonna say, oh,
• 2:14:55
  Speaker 1: we don't need a bureaucracy, but we might, and you
• 2:14:59
  Speaker 1: might need an act, actual agency that just simply handles
• 2:15:02
  Speaker 1: this blind trust stuff. And I and I actually think
• 2:15:06
  Speaker 1: if you institutionalize it, it's it's more likely to stick
• 2:15:12
  Speaker 1: than if you just do a congressional ban. But then
• 2:15:14
  Speaker 1: what are you going to have whether you have you know,
• 2:15:16
  Speaker 1: look at look at the corruption inside the Defense Department.
• 2:15:19
  Speaker 1: We've got Pete Hegsett's attempts to try to uh uh
• 2:15:24
  Speaker 1: make investments deals off of defense contracts. Right, So it
• 2:15:28
  Speaker 1: is you know, you can't sort of solve this problem
• 2:15:31
  Speaker 1: and not do this. And and I don't want to
• 2:15:33
  Speaker 1: not do something just because it isn't going to have
• 2:15:35
  Speaker 1: the reach it should have inside frankly the judiciary and
• 2:15:38
  Speaker 1: the executive brand. That's why institutionalizing it gives it where
• 2:15:44
  Speaker 1: essentially it's it's it's across the board. Again, I this
• 2:15:52
  Speaker 1: is the hemin and Hawing on This tells me that
• 2:15:56
  Speaker 1: whatever gets past is going to have so many loopholes.
• 2:16:00
  Speaker 1: Sort of reminds me of following the name, image and
• 2:16:03
  Speaker 1: likeness bills that all these college football programs have been
• 2:16:07
  Speaker 1: lobbying their own state legislatures to pass. You know, they're like,
• 2:16:10
  Speaker 1: oh no, we want, we need to have some certainty,
• 2:16:11
  Speaker 1: but within the certainty or nothing but loopholes for rich
• 2:16:16
  Speaker 1: donors to be able to go in and manipulate the system.
• 2:16:20
  Speaker 1: So I am a little concerned about that. But I
• 2:16:22
  Speaker 1: think there's no doubt that in order to rebuild trust
• 2:16:28
  Speaker 1: in government, this isn't necessary and absolutely is necessary, but
• 2:16:33
  Speaker 1: it has to also apply to the executive branch and
• 2:16:35
  Speaker 1: the judiciary. So this has to be a whole of government.
• 2:16:40
  Speaker 1: Does that mean we may need to you know, it's
• 2:16:42
  Speaker 1: possible we need a constitutional amendment. But I also think
• 2:16:45
  Speaker 1: what Congress ought to do not only do it for themselves,
• 2:16:48
  Speaker 1: but set up the institution that you said, because this
• 2:16:51
  Speaker 1: isn't easy, and I wouldn't you know, I've put it
• 2:16:54
  Speaker 1: in blind trust. You know, my brother in law handles it.
• 2:16:56
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 2:16:57
  Speaker 1: You don't want that either, right, You kind of need,
• 2:16:59
  Speaker 1: I think in this case, and an institution to deal
• 2:17:02
  Speaker 1: with this, strengthening the Federal Elections Commission. I think the
• 2:17:09
  Speaker 1: question is do you strengthen it or do you start
• 2:17:11
  Speaker 1: all over and come up with something a bit different
• 2:17:14
  Speaker 1: because this isn't working. Just simply getting a quorum of
• 2:17:20
  Speaker 1: enough commissioners appointed at the right time so that you know,
• 2:17:24
  Speaker 1: Essentially everybody's going to gain the system of control on
• 2:17:28
  Speaker 1: this or as stalemates to too, and there's you know,
• 2:17:33
  Speaker 1: there's no third entity. I'd like to see a massive
• 2:17:38
  Speaker 1: reform of the FEC that had the commissioners not be
• 2:17:42
  Speaker 1: members of Congress, like I think we ought to have
• 2:17:44
  Speaker 1: this as jury duty or something like that, something akin
• 2:17:47
  Speaker 1: to that. Meaning, I don't trust the Senate Republican leader,
• 2:17:51
  Speaker 1: president of United Democratic President the United States or Republican
• 2:17:54
  Speaker 1: president of the United States Center Democratic leader to appoint
• 2:17:57
  Speaker 1: commissioners who are going to do anything other than look
• 2:18:03
  Speaker 1: out for the partisan interests of their sign So uh,
• 2:18:08
  Speaker 1: you know, for a long time we thought bipartisan could
• 2:18:12
  Speaker 1: could sort of that tension could could balance us out.
• 2:18:15
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure that works anymore, and we might be
• 2:18:18
  Speaker 1: better off with actual individuals being recruited or getting you know,
• 2:18:24
  Speaker 1: outside entities or a random rotation of judges. You know,
• 2:18:32
  Speaker 1: the the members of the FEC need to be as
• 2:18:37
  Speaker 1: far away from political stickiness as possible and yet at
• 2:18:40
  Speaker 1: the same time have credibility. But we've you know, you've
• 2:18:48
  Speaker 1: also got to have a you know, the part of
• 2:18:50
  Speaker 1: the FBC's challenge, Michael, it's the fact that there are
• 2:18:55
  Speaker 1: no laws that stick. So you pass one set of
• 2:18:58
  Speaker 1: campaign finance laws or one set of disclosure laws, and
• 2:19:01
  Speaker 1: it doesn't apply to a different type of committee that
• 2:19:04
  Speaker 1: is oh no, no, no, This is an education committee
• 2:19:06
  Speaker 1: that is just educating voters. It has nothing to do
• 2:19:08
  Speaker 1: with the campaign and it technically meets that that. You know,
• 2:19:12
  Speaker 1: So in order for the FEC to be viable, we
• 2:19:15
  Speaker 1: probably have to simplify and strengthen our actual campaign finance laws,
• 2:19:20
  Speaker 1: and we probably need a constitutional moment on that. So
• 2:19:25
  Speaker 1: I've here, I've taken two of your ideas and already
• 2:19:29
  Speaker 1: complicated by saying you might need a constitutional amendment. It
• 2:19:32
  Speaker 1: doesn't mean they're not necessary. It just means this is
• 2:19:34
  Speaker 1: why it should explain why these are been harder. You know,
• 2:19:38
  Speaker 1: these aren't new in some wadys, are not new ideas,
• 2:19:41
  Speaker 1: they're just been harder to make happen because ultimately you
• 2:19:44
  Speaker 1: run into whether it's separational powers, or you run into
• 2:19:47
  Speaker 1: other constitutional issues. But the simplest one expanding the house.
• 2:19:52
  Speaker 1: But you know, you know that itch, I scratch it
• 2:19:55
  Speaker 1: almost every day, and that's something you don't need a
• 2:19:57
  Speaker 1: constitutional mement for. It seems to be pain fully obvious
• 2:20:00
  Speaker 1: to me that we need to expand the House for
• 2:20:03
  Speaker 1: a variety of reasons, but fairness is the biggest. If
• 2:20:06
  Speaker 1: we are going to clean up this and create the
• 2:20:08
  Speaker 1: perception of fair representation, again, we're going to need to
• 2:20:12
  Speaker 1: expand the House because I don't think you know, the
• 2:20:14
  Speaker 1: more you're relying on people drawing fair lines, the harder
• 2:20:20
  Speaker 1: this is going to be. More districts mean less necessity
• 2:20:25
  Speaker 1: to gerrymander. The bottom line is, all of your reform
• 2:20:30
  Speaker 1: ideas are good ideas, in some cases necessary ideas, much
• 2:20:34
  Speaker 1: harder to implement than they should be. Next question comes
• 2:20:38
  Speaker 1: from Jim Tobahana, Pennsylvania, and he says, how often here
• 2:20:41
  Speaker 1: you say Democrats are held to a higher standard because
• 2:20:43
  Speaker 1: they claim to be the party of higher standards? And
• 2:20:45
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure I fully understand that. What do you
• 2:20:47
  Speaker 1: base that on? And is it something you've heard directly
• 2:20:49
  Speaker 1: from politicians on either side? Shouldn't all elected officials be
• 2:20:51
  Speaker 1: held at the same standard, especially at the highest levels.
• 2:20:54
  Speaker 1: Appreciate you elaborating, So it's a little bit of just
• 2:21:02
  Speaker 1: looking at their behavior, right, the tolerance of Trump and
• 2:21:06
  Speaker 1: what he's done, there's obviously this lower standard here. If
• 2:21:13
  Speaker 1: the Democrats are out here preaching that no, no, no, no,
• 2:21:16
  Speaker 1: we think there needs of h they got to live
• 2:21:18
  Speaker 1: by the same they've essentially as they are. You know,
• 2:21:23
  Speaker 1: look free districting. No, we're for fair districts. Then they're not.
• 2:21:26
  Speaker 1: Then they get mad that we're somehow you know that
• 2:21:28
  Speaker 1: some of us in the media are holding them more
• 2:21:30
  Speaker 1: accountable for their flip fop than from Republicans who never
• 2:21:33
  Speaker 1: were serious about it in the first place. They weren't
• 2:21:36
  Speaker 1: the ones that owned it. So it's it's more on
• 2:21:38
  Speaker 1: some of these important reform or some of these important
• 2:21:41
  Speaker 1: character questions. Democrats have been running multi year campaigns about it,
• 2:21:46
  Speaker 1: and then suddenly they look the other way when it
• 2:21:48
  Speaker 1: happens to them. Then they get mad that the media
• 2:21:50
  Speaker 1: sometimes gets harsher on a Democratic misstep like that than
• 2:21:54
  Speaker 1: on the Republican Party. But the Republican Party is not
• 2:21:56
  Speaker 1: out there saying, you know, we're going to nominate people
• 2:22:00
  Speaker 1: of the highest ethical standards. They're not trying to do
• 2:22:02
  Speaker 1: that anymore. They're the party of Donald Trump. They have
• 2:22:05
  Speaker 1: become the party of self dealing. They have become the
• 2:22:07
  Speaker 1: party that you know, ends justifies means, and so I
• 2:22:12
  Speaker 1: think it's a That's what I mean by that. Do
• 2:22:16
  Speaker 1: I think, of course, I think everybody should be judged
• 2:22:19
  Speaker 1: by the same high set of standards. But I'm going
• 2:22:24
  Speaker 1: to be tougher on somebody. You know, It's like we're
• 2:22:26
  Speaker 1: going to be tougher on the Catholic priest that tells
• 2:22:29
  Speaker 1: us to live a moral life and then doesn't. Then
• 2:22:33
  Speaker 1: we would on somebody who isn't claiming to be on
• 2:22:38
  Speaker 1: the highest of high high ground and then misbehaved. So
• 2:22:45
  Speaker 1: that's what I mean by that. And you know this
• 2:22:51
  Speaker 1: is it's the basis for the for my column this week,
• 2:22:55
  Speaker 1: which you can find on both the Newsphere and substack,
• 2:22:58
  Speaker 1: which is simply know and I think Democrats are They're
• 2:23:03
  Speaker 1: playing with a little fire here come twenty twenty eight.
• 2:23:05
  Speaker 1: It may not matter in twenty twenty six, but you
• 2:23:08
  Speaker 1: know the idea that they look. You know, they have
• 2:23:11
  Speaker 1: questionable characters on their side of the island. They rationalize
• 2:23:14
  Speaker 1: it away, just like the right was doing. Well, here
• 2:23:18
  Speaker 1: we go hypocrisy all around. And I'm not saying Platinus
• 2:23:23
  Speaker 1: somehow done things that are worse than Ken Paxton, No,
• 2:23:26
  Speaker 1: I don't think so. But again, you can't claim high
• 2:23:29
  Speaker 1: moral ground over here. And then ignore it over there.
• 2:23:34
  Speaker 1: And I think that's why, you know, when when Democrats
• 2:23:38
  Speaker 1: get annoyed or peoed at me because they think, you know,
• 2:23:42
  Speaker 1: I get tougher on them, I'm like, yeah, they the
• 2:23:45
  Speaker 1: party has promised to be better, and I think the
• 2:23:49
  Speaker 1: party's benefit of the last ten years by not being
• 2:23:52
  Speaker 1: Trump but promising not to to sort of play by
• 2:23:56
  Speaker 1: the Trump rules. And I think this decision to essentially
• 2:24:00
  Speaker 1: play by Trump's rules, whether it's on redistricting, character, you
• 2:24:03
  Speaker 1: name it, it's gonna buy ch in the ass. I
• 2:24:07
  Speaker 1: don't know when. Maybe it'll work this cycle. Maybe, and
• 2:24:17
  Speaker 1: if it just because it works a cycle doesn't mean
• 2:24:19
  Speaker 1: it's a good idea. All right, Sophia T right Hey.
• 2:24:34
  Speaker 1: I recently saw your take on potential twenty twenty eight
• 2:24:36
  Speaker 1: Democratic candidates and agreed with your points, especially on more
• 2:24:38
  Speaker 1: whitmer and footage. Surprised to see Wes Moore left off
• 2:24:41
  Speaker 1: some recent discussions. Given his background and potential appeal, do
• 2:24:44
  Speaker 1: you still see him as a top tier contender even
• 2:24:46
  Speaker 1: as he publicly downplays a run. Look, I do. I
• 2:24:49
  Speaker 1: think he's being I think he's being correctly. I think
• 2:24:57
  Speaker 1: he's correctly showing a little bit of humility about a
• 2:24:59
  Speaker 1: second term. Doesn't want to be presumptuous about winning a
• 2:25:02
  Speaker 1: second term in Maryland. I think that that's you know,
• 2:25:05
  Speaker 1: you got to be careful of that. Bill Clinton in
• 2:25:07
  Speaker 1: nineteen ninety was running for reelection, and there was some
• 2:25:10
  Speaker 1: concern he could, you know that, and that his opponent
• 2:25:15
  Speaker 1: could use his presidential ambitions against him. Now, Bill Clinton
• 2:25:18
  Speaker 1: pledged to serve four years, and of course broke that
• 2:25:21
  Speaker 1: pledge within nine months. Barack Obama broke his pledge. But
• 2:25:26
  Speaker 1: when I meet the press to announce that he's breaking
• 2:25:28
  Speaker 1: his pledge not to seek the presidency in twenty oh
• 2:25:33
  Speaker 1: eight when he decided to do it. So there's certainly precedent.
• 2:25:36
  Speaker 1: It's why I treat him as a top tier candidate.
• 2:25:39
  Speaker 1: But he has said it a few times. He's careful
• 2:25:42
  Speaker 1: with how he says it. I mean, for a guy
• 2:25:43
  Speaker 1: that's not interested in running, He's already made a number
• 2:25:47
  Speaker 1: of trips to certain early states, including South Carolina that
• 2:25:51
  Speaker 1: certainly in Texas Tribune Festival, things like that, there's no
• 2:25:55
  Speaker 1: doubt he's thinking about it now. I do think the
• 2:25:58
  Speaker 1: real issue, and it's my understanding I've done my own
• 2:26:01
  Speaker 1: reporting on this is his family, and I think that's
• 2:26:04
  Speaker 1: a serious thing with him, meaning if he doesn't think
• 2:26:08
  Speaker 1: his family can handle the scrutiny, handle the spotlight, all
• 2:26:11
  Speaker 1: of that. Uh, he's you know, he's in his mid forties,
• 2:26:16
  Speaker 1: no reason why he has to run in twenty twenty eight.
• 2:26:20
  Speaker 1: But I still you know, when you look at his resume,
• 2:26:24
  Speaker 1: you know they're you know, for me, there are you know,
• 2:26:29
  Speaker 1: there there have been three, maybe four candidates that stand
• 2:26:32
  Speaker 1: above everybody else right now on the Democratic side, uh,
• 2:26:37
  Speaker 1: Raphael Warnock, Mark Kelly John ossof Wes Moore for uh,
• 2:26:46
  Speaker 1: and I'll put Pete Bootagets there, although I think I
• 2:26:48
  Speaker 1: still think biden baggage is heavy, you know, I think
• 2:26:52
  Speaker 1: those are in that sort of non that that sort
• 2:26:55
  Speaker 1: of I think those are all Democrats who have a
• 2:26:58
  Speaker 1: good shot at unifying the party. That could that could
• 2:27:02
  Speaker 1: get the business Democrats and the Progressives comfortable in the
• 2:27:07
  Speaker 1: same tent. Maybe not excited, but comfortable. And I think
• 2:27:12
  Speaker 1: all would be on paper pretty strong to potential general
• 2:27:15
  Speaker 1: election candidates. Now, look, who knows how they'd wear, how
• 2:27:18
  Speaker 1: well they'd wear, and all of that, But right now,
• 2:27:24
  Speaker 1: right it's it's there. I'm I'm I've got got a
• 2:27:27
  Speaker 1: little more skepticism. And all the other governors, I'm not
• 2:27:30
  Speaker 1: saying any of them. May you know, Look, I think JB. Pritzker,
• 2:27:34
  Speaker 1: if he grabs the progressive lane, if there's no AOC
• 2:27:36
  Speaker 1: or Bernie and Pritzker is able to grab it, not
• 2:27:40
  Speaker 1: ro Connachard's got the resources to be a formidable candidate there.
• 2:27:44
  Speaker 1: And I don't want to underestimate him. I'm just not
• 2:27:46
  Speaker 1: quite sure he could unify the party right away. I'm
• 2:27:53
  Speaker 1: not sure in Josh Shapiro, I'm not sure an ambusher.
• 2:27:56
  Speaker 1: I think they're all going to be excellent potentially excellent
• 2:27:58
  Speaker 1: candidates and and and could provide opportunities. But no, I'm
• 2:28:03
  Speaker 1: I'm you know, there's a reason I put more on
• 2:28:06
  Speaker 1: my most likely you know of people who have not
• 2:28:08
  Speaker 1: run before, most likely to be in the in the
• 2:28:12
  Speaker 1: top tier of the twenty twenty eight race should he
• 2:28:14
  Speaker 1: choose to run. He's got he's got to I think,
• 2:28:19
  Speaker 1: a very good story to tell. Now, like anything, how
• 2:28:27
  Speaker 1: will he hold up? Right, there's going to be vetting,
• 2:28:29
  Speaker 1: there's going to be you know, people can look good
• 2:28:33
  Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden they look like Graham
• 2:28:34
  Speaker 1: Platner does at the moment. Right. You know, this is
• 2:28:37
  Speaker 1: a guy who a month ago people are saying, hey,
• 2:28:40
  Speaker 1: could he end up being a presidential candidate? Right now
• 2:28:43
  Speaker 1: there's talk of whether does he stay on the ballot, right,
• 2:28:46
  Speaker 1: So this is how quick this stuff can come and go.
• 2:28:49
  Speaker 1: But this is why I sort of him leaning on
• 2:28:52
  Speaker 1: the candidates who I think have shown an ability to
• 2:28:55
  Speaker 1: stick around and have had staying power and have kind
• 2:28:57
  Speaker 1: of already maybe been around the block, gone through a
• 2:29:01
  Speaker 1: rough go. Right. You know, Warnock's been through some tough
• 2:29:05
  Speaker 1: campaigns already, two of them Osoff has Mark Kelly has
• 2:29:10
  Speaker 1: been vetted once for VP.
• 2:29:14
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 2:29:16
  Speaker 1: I probably the one guy that hasn't really had it
• 2:29:19
  Speaker 1: had to take real incoming just yet is Wes Moore.
• 2:29:23
  Speaker 1: So he will be you know, so he will be
• 2:29:25
  Speaker 1: you know, taking incoming for the first time winter if
• 2:29:27
  Speaker 1: he does decide to run. But you know, right now,
• 2:29:31
  Speaker 1: in the on paper primary, I think Wes Moore is
• 2:29:34
  Speaker 1: a top three candidate, all right, Tim c and Mount
• 2:29:40
  Speaker 1: Clemens Michigan. Rights, Hey, if Republicans were to lose more
• 2:29:42
  Speaker 1: than forty House seats, do you think Mike Johnson's position
• 2:29:45
  Speaker 1: as leader would be at risk? I don't think Mike
• 2:29:48
  Speaker 1: Johnson is going to be the House Republican leader if
• 2:29:50
  Speaker 1: they lose the House, whether it's nine seats or forty seats.
• 2:29:54
  Speaker 1: Mike Johnson was only speaker because nobody else wanted the
• 2:29:58
  Speaker 1: job and had the votes, and Donald Trump decided he
• 2:30:01
  Speaker 1: would have Mike Johnson's back. But I think the last
• 2:30:06
  Speaker 1: thing Johnson wants to be is House minority leader. So
• 2:30:10
  Speaker 1: I don't think he'll be minority leader. My guess is
• 2:30:12
  Speaker 1: it's probably going to be somebody like Jim Jordan that
• 2:30:15
  Speaker 1: it's that it's a little bit more fire brandish. We'll see,
• 2:30:21
  Speaker 1: but I you know, I I think Jordan's been kind
• 2:30:25
  Speaker 1: of staying quiet sort of you know, it's almost like
• 2:30:30
  Speaker 1: he wants to follow the path of MacArthur. Remember McCarthy
• 2:30:32
  Speaker 1: got denied the speakership before he ever got there the
• 2:30:34
  Speaker 1: first time, and then sort of licked his wounds and
• 2:30:38
  Speaker 1: came back and ended up leader again and all of that.
• 2:30:40
  Speaker 1: So I think that's what Jim Jordan is potentially eyeing.
• 2:30:46
  Speaker 1: Maybe it's it's somebody new, maybe it's somebody younger, but
• 2:30:50
  Speaker 1: I would I you know, look, I know that once
• 2:30:53
  Speaker 1: people get some power, they don't want to give it up.
• 2:30:57
  Speaker 1: But I'm just on a personal note. I think this job,
• 2:31:08
  Speaker 1: this wore him down. I think he'd like a break.
• 2:31:11
  Speaker 1: I don't think he And it's tough to go from
• 2:31:14
  Speaker 1: being the most powerful member of Congress to minority leader.
• 2:31:22
  Speaker 1: You know, despite the title she gave herself a Speaker America,
• 2:31:25
  Speaker 1: there really is no title for Speaker America. So I
• 2:31:30
  Speaker 1: imagine that if they lose the House by one seat,
• 2:31:35
  Speaker 1: let alone nine or forty as you put in there,
• 2:31:39
  Speaker 1: that Mike Johnson can be later Michael al Wrights, Hey,
• 2:31:44
  Speaker 1: do you think here Starmer can survive as prime minister?
• 2:31:47
  Speaker 1: Do you think Nigel Faraj is on his way to
• 2:31:48
  Speaker 1: becoming prime minister? Well, I will tell you this, I'm
• 2:31:51
  Speaker 1: surprised that Starmer, as of this writing, and as of
• 2:31:54
  Speaker 1: your question, and as of this moment in time on
• 2:31:57
  Speaker 1: June second, that I'm recording this, I'm surprised he's still
• 2:32:05
  Speaker 1: prime Minister. So it certainly seems as if we get
• 2:32:10
  Speaker 1: a snap election today that Nigel Farage will be the nominee,
• 2:32:15
  Speaker 1: would be the likely next prime minister. In some ways,
• 2:32:19
  Speaker 1: there's ay, it's like, oh right, you want the car,
• 2:32:26
  Speaker 1: go ahead, Let's see how you do. I am skeptical
• 2:32:33
  Speaker 1: Forage is going to be a successful prime minister. I
• 2:32:36
  Speaker 1: have a feeling, you know, when you get when when
• 2:32:39
  Speaker 1: a you know, it's it's when a when an insurgency
• 2:32:46
  Speaker 1: grabs power. They a lot of times the insurgency doesn't
• 2:32:49
  Speaker 1: know how to govern and and doesn't know how to
• 2:32:53
  Speaker 1: stop being an insurgent.
• 2:32:55
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 2:32:55
  Speaker 1: Trump has really struggled with this. He hates being the establishment.
• 2:33:00
  Speaker 1: He wants, you know, he wishes he were an insurgent
• 2:33:04
  Speaker 1: figure still and he struggles with it. And I think
• 2:33:07
  Speaker 1: this explains why Trump has been terrible when he's been
• 2:33:11
  Speaker 1: the incumbent, whether whether in a midterm or or running
• 2:33:15
  Speaker 1: for reelection. And he's and he's much more comfortable being
• 2:33:18
  Speaker 1: a challenger, as he says, a counterpuncher. So uh, you know,
• 2:33:28
  Speaker 1: I if the Reform Party is going to be the
• 2:33:33
  Speaker 1: leading party, I don't see how Farage doesn't get a
• 2:33:36
  Speaker 1: shot at this. So now I fully expect that Farage
• 2:33:39
  Speaker 1: is going at the next the next prime minister after
• 2:33:43
  Speaker 1: the next elections in the UK will be Farage. I'm
• 2:33:47
  Speaker 1: not going to sit here and say the next prime
• 2:33:49
  Speaker 1: minister after Starmar is going to be Farage. It's you know,
• 2:33:51
  Speaker 1: it still seems as if the party's desperate to find
• 2:33:54
  Speaker 1: a replacement for Starmer, But the fact that it hasn't
• 2:33:57
  Speaker 1: happened yet, I think it shows you that there's just
• 2:33:59
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of factions.
• 2:34:00
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 2:34:01
  Speaker 1: It's like, you know, Biden was nobody's first choice, and
• 2:34:04
  Speaker 1: I don't think Starmer is anybody's first choice. But you know,
• 2:34:08
  Speaker 1: you can't beat somebody with nobody and is as hard
• 2:34:13
  Speaker 1: to you know, It's like maybe it's an equivalent of
• 2:34:17
  Speaker 1: answering the other question about about Mike Johnson, Like watching
• 2:34:20
  Speaker 1: Republicans desperately look for somebody that could get two hundred
• 2:34:23
  Speaker 1: and eighteen votes, it doesn't appear that there's an alternative
• 2:34:26
  Speaker 1: to Starmer that can get a majority of Labor to
• 2:34:29
  Speaker 1: make this happen. But there's no question that Labor's got
• 2:34:33
  Speaker 1: to find a new face, right. Starmar is just not
• 2:34:39
  Speaker 1: you know, he's trying not to. He's just he doesn't
• 2:34:45
  Speaker 1: he doesn't project strength. I think he's ideologically about where
• 2:34:50
  Speaker 1: Labor needs to be and when they're the majority, but
• 2:34:55
  Speaker 1: he's kind of weak in how he projects his ideas
• 2:34:59
  Speaker 1: and how he project excess power. And I think that
• 2:35:03
  Speaker 1: and I think that weakness certainly, and then you've got
• 2:35:08
  Speaker 1: the whiff of losing on you right now, as it
• 2:35:11
  Speaker 1: does right because the party just seems but you know,
• 2:35:14
  Speaker 1: there's a part of me we're really blaming Kiir Starmer
• 2:35:16
  Speaker 1: for this, right and it was just sort of like,
• 2:35:19
  Speaker 1: you know, Labor won because they weren't the Tories, and
• 2:35:25
  Speaker 1: I think this is this is it's very similar to
• 2:35:27
  Speaker 1: like the Democrats won in twenty twenty because they weren't Trump,
• 2:35:32
  Speaker 1: but then they governed like they had won some big
• 2:35:34
  Speaker 1: landslide and the voters totally rejected that, you know, the UK.
• 2:35:41
  Speaker 1: I continue to believe the UK is a little bit
• 2:35:42
  Speaker 1: ahead of the United States on this sort of rejection
• 2:35:45
  Speaker 1: of its two major parties. Right already you've seen both
• 2:35:48
  Speaker 1: of the UK's major parties or not even in the
• 2:35:50
  Speaker 1: top two. Right, it's reform, it's it. Maybe it may
• 2:35:54
  Speaker 1: be the lib Dems and it may be the Greens
• 2:35:57
  Speaker 1: that end up, you know, ahead of both Labor in
• 2:36:00
  Speaker 1: the Tories. Our system makes it a little more difficult,
• 2:36:04
  Speaker 1: but it's pretty clear if you just look at voter
• 2:36:07
  Speaker 1: registration role that voters are rejecting the two major parties
• 2:36:10
  Speaker 1: in this country in droves, particularly voters under the age
• 2:36:13
  Speaker 1: of thirty five. So no, I don't expect starmers survive,
• 2:36:20
  Speaker 1: and yes, I do expect that in the same way
• 2:36:26
  Speaker 1: that it was pretty clear there were enough Republicans that
• 2:36:28
  Speaker 1: are like, no, we want to try this Trump experiment.
• 2:36:30
  Speaker 1: We know everybody thinks it's a bad idea, but we
• 2:36:33
  Speaker 1: want to try it anyway. That's what Nigel for ours
• 2:36:36
  Speaker 1: feels like to me to the UK electorate. All right,
• 2:36:41
  Speaker 1: last question, Caitlin Nee and Bristol, Pennsylvania Rights, longtime follower
• 2:36:47
  Speaker 1: from your White House correspondence dates. Thank you, big fan.
• 2:36:49
  Speaker 1: Really like your idea of expanding the House, especially given
• 2:36:51
  Speaker 1: how much larger districts have become over time. Do you
• 2:36:53
  Speaker 1: think a more virtual governance model could work alongside that
• 2:36:56
  Speaker 1: keeping members more rooted in their districts will still convenient
• 2:36:59
  Speaker 1: when needed. Yes. In fact, I want to share with
• 2:37:02
  Speaker 1: you one of the fantastic ideas one of my students,
• 2:37:04
  Speaker 1: and I'm I still plan to do this. I want
• 2:37:09
  Speaker 1: to share one of the things that I had my
• 2:37:10
  Speaker 1: class at USC do for their for their final essay
• 2:37:15
  Speaker 1: was to essentially pick something to fix to make Washington
• 2:37:18
  Speaker 1: work better. So one of the ideas that one of
• 2:37:23
  Speaker 1: my students had was to move Congress move the entire basically,
• 2:37:30
  Speaker 1: and I'm i'm, i'm I'm adding some flourishes to this.
• 2:37:36
  Speaker 1: But think of it as, Hey, every year the NFL
• 2:37:40
  Speaker 1: now holds the NFL Draft in a different city, well
• 2:37:43
  Speaker 1: maybe every two years, Congress is going to go to
• 2:37:46
  Speaker 1: a new city. And wouldn't it be great if residents
• 2:37:51
  Speaker 1: in Montana got to host Congress for a session. Wouldn't
• 2:37:55
  Speaker 1: it be great? If the citizens of Mississippi got to
• 2:37:58
  Speaker 1: host Congress session. Wouldn't it be great the citizens of
• 2:38:02
  Speaker 1: Maine got their host Congress session to sort of you
• 2:38:08
  Speaker 1: know it. I love the spirit of it, and it
• 2:38:13
  Speaker 1: gets to this virtual governance. I look, what I think is,
• 2:38:17
  Speaker 1: you know, I'd like to see Congressional offices be more
• 2:38:22
  Speaker 1: fully staffed in the districts than they are in Washington.
• 2:38:26
  Speaker 1: I think the committee staffs should be in Washington and
• 2:38:29
  Speaker 1: your personal staff should be in your district, and you
• 2:38:32
  Speaker 1: figure out the balance of that. But the ability to
• 2:38:35
  Speaker 1: do so many things remotely. Ultimately, you're a representative of
• 2:38:39
  Speaker 1: your constituency. You need to be as close to your
• 2:38:41
  Speaker 1: constituents as you can at all times. So I'd love
• 2:38:44
  Speaker 1: to see the ability for members to vote from their offices,
• 2:38:47
  Speaker 1: and maybe you would only you know, they can't vote
• 2:38:49
  Speaker 1: from their bedroom, they can't vote for their home office.
• 2:38:51
  Speaker 1: They actually, you know, a district office almost becomes a
• 2:38:54
  Speaker 1: virtual you know, you make it a ski, a skiff,
• 2:38:57
  Speaker 1: a place where it's secure and all of that. So
• 2:39:01
  Speaker 1: I would have some limitations about where they could remote vote,
• 2:39:06
  Speaker 1: but I think that there's some especially look, especially if
• 2:39:08
  Speaker 1: you're going to have eight to nine hundred members of
• 2:39:10
  Speaker 1: Congress like I am advocated, it is going to be
• 2:39:13
  Speaker 1: hard to put them all up here. And I think
• 2:39:15
  Speaker 1: everybody should get offices in DC when they're here, and
• 2:39:19
  Speaker 1: we have plenty of office space. If members of Congress
• 2:39:23
  Speaker 1: or committees didn't have suites of eight to ten to
• 2:39:25
  Speaker 1: fifteen offices, right, they could have that in their communities.
• 2:39:29
  Speaker 1: They don't need it here in Washington, DC. And you
• 2:39:32
  Speaker 1: can have your staff in different places like that. So
• 2:39:38
  Speaker 1: the answer is yes. I mean, I have partnership the
• 2:39:43
  Speaker 1: production company I partner with for this podcast. We're all
• 2:39:47
  Speaker 1: over the country, and we're able to have all sorts
• 2:39:51
  Speaker 1: of meetings, make all sorts of decisions. We all you know, frankly,
• 2:39:56
  Speaker 1: the downside is we're all always available to work the
• 2:40:01
  Speaker 1: But if you're working for the pax payers, that's a
• 2:40:03
  Speaker 1: good thing that you're always available, you're always on the clock,
• 2:40:06
  Speaker 1: you're always available to work. So yes, I'd like to
• 2:40:10
  Speaker 1: see more virtual governance, and i'd take it a step further.
• 2:40:13
  Speaker 1: And yeah, it's a little you know, you might you know,
• 2:40:16
  Speaker 1: I'm you know, the the idea of moving Congress. I've
• 2:40:20
  Speaker 1: actually wanted it. I absolutely believe that if you know,
• 2:40:25
  Speaker 1: make the lobbyists go find you. Right, I'm not saying
• 2:40:27
  Speaker 1: you're ever going to get rid of the lobbyists. And
• 2:40:30
  Speaker 1: they're good. Look, lobbying is is necessary, and they're a
• 2:40:34
  Speaker 1: good lobbyists and they're bad lobbyists. But lobbying itself is
• 2:40:37
  Speaker 1: neither good or bad. It's the lobby It's the person
• 2:40:40
  Speaker 1: behind the lobby that decides whether it's good lobbying or
• 2:40:44
  Speaker 1: bad lobbying. But I think just frankly, bringing Congress to
• 2:40:51
  Speaker 1: different parts of the country, bringing the focus of different
• 2:40:55
  Speaker 1: parts of the country, front and senator members of Congress,
• 2:40:58
  Speaker 1: you know. And one it sounds crazy pie in the sky, right,
• 2:41:03
  Speaker 1: And on the other hand, it seems like, you know
• 2:41:05
  Speaker 1: what if we had had the ability to do this
• 2:41:10
  Speaker 1: in seventeen eighty nine, when we were devising this constitution,
• 2:41:16
  Speaker 1: the idea of Congress rotating among the thirteen states would
• 2:41:22
  Speaker 1: have been an easier sell. Then well, we got to
• 2:41:25
  Speaker 1: find a capital. Yeah, I don't know if it should
• 2:41:27
  Speaker 1: be New York. No, I don't know if it should
• 2:41:28
  Speaker 1: be Philly. Why don't we manufacture a city. The point
• 2:41:32
  Speaker 1: being is, if we logistically could have pulled it off
• 2:41:34
  Speaker 1: in seventeen eighty nine, my guess is the founders would
• 2:41:36
  Speaker 1: have been all for us. That. You know, Congress is
• 2:41:40
  Speaker 1: an institution, is permanent, but that Congress when it meets
• 2:41:44
  Speaker 1: to decide, they rotate again. It's a crazy idea that
• 2:41:53
  Speaker 1: makes way too much sense. And with that, I will
• 2:42:00
  Speaker 1: it's been a week, and I appreciate you coming in
• 2:42:02
  Speaker 1: for the live stream. By the way, I've got a
• 2:42:04
  Speaker 1: new episode. Let me give you a few things. I
• 2:42:05
  Speaker 1: got a new episode of Dynastic Up. We do the
• 2:42:07
  Speaker 1: Warriors from the Philadelphia Warrior Days to the San Francisco
• 2:42:12
  Speaker 1: Warrior Days to the now current Golden State Warrior Days.
• 2:42:16
  Speaker 1: We go from Wilt Chamberlain to Rick Berry to Steph Curry,
• 2:42:20
  Speaker 1: and I will tell you I learned a bunch and
• 2:42:23
  Speaker 1: I hope to share everything. I hope I shared everything
• 2:42:26
  Speaker 1: I learned with you in this episode with my pile Jayadande,
• 2:42:29
  Speaker 1: but it was a labor of love and I hope
• 2:42:32
  Speaker 1: you will check it out. That episode is now streaming
• 2:42:35
  Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast is also obviously I share
• 2:42:38
  Speaker 1: my own feed with it, and of course I appreciate
• 2:42:43
  Speaker 1: all the election night live streams. Appreciate you coming in
• 2:42:47
  Speaker 1: with the long election night that we have nothing like
• 2:42:49
  Speaker 1: the West Coast and the never ending counting that comes
• 2:42:53
  Speaker 1: with the state of California. So with that, I will
• 2:42:55
  Speaker 1: see you in twenty four hours. Thanks for listening until
• 2:42:58
  Speaker 1: I uploaded it. Hey,