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Europe's Fragmented Fight for Space Power · Diplomacy and International Relations

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  Hello and welcome to Diplomacy and International Relations by
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  Bastian Freiburg. I'm your host.
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  And I'm your expert. Today we have a well, a truly
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  stellar topic on the agenda. We are looking up way up to the
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  final frontier. But we aren't talking science
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  fiction here. No, not at all.
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  We're talking about the very real, very expensive and very
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  tense struggle for the European Union to establish itself as a
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  superpower in space. It's a domain that's rapidly
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  becoming just as contested as any terrestrial border.
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  You've got fierce competition from the US, China, Russia.
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  And the big question we're asking today is where does
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  Europe actually fit into this new space race?
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  Exactly. And to figure that out, we've
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  waded through a massive stack of, well, very heavy
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  documentation. We really have.
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  We're talking about the cost of non Europe report from the
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  European Parliamentary Research Service, the EU Space Strategy
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  for Security and defence. And, you know, various analysis
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  of the Artemis Accords. Our mission is to decode the
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  geopolitical and economic stakes hidden in all that paper.
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  It's about understanding the price of fragmentation versus
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  the power of unity. That's the core of it.
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  Now before we launch into that fascinating conversation, just a
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  quick note for our listeners. Yeah, this is important.
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  OK, let's get into it. Blitz.
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  When we think space race, we usually think Cold War, right?
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  US versus the Soviet Union. That's the classic image.
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  But looking at these reports, the playing field has changed
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  dramatically and it seems like money is the 1st place we need
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  to look to really understand the power dynamics.
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  You have to follow the money and when you look at the raw numbers
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  in the cost of a non Europe report, the disparity is, well,
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  it's stark. OK, lay it on us.
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  If we look at annual civil space budgets, the United States is
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  sitting at approximately 22 billion.
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  China is ramping up aggressively with about 12 billion. 22 and
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  12, OK, so that's the competition.
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  Where's the EU? Well, this is where it gets
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  complicated. The EU's joint public spending,
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  the money that's pulled together is only about 6.5 billion.
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  Only 6 1/2. That's the joint pot.
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  Now, Member States individually spend another 3 billion or so,
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  but. So even if you add it all up,
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  you're not even at 10 billion. Not even close.
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  You're not reaching half of what the US is spending.
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  That is a massive gap. It feels like the EU is, I don't
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  know, bringing a knife to a gunfight.
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  Or maybe a glider to a rocket launch.
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  It's really a question of efficiency.
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  The report uses this term the cost of non Europe.
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  I found that fascinating. What does it actually mean?
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  It essentially quantifies how much money and potential is just
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  evaporated simply because EU countries insist on acting
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  individually rather than collectively.
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  So it's the price tag of ego or, you know, sovereignty, depending
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  on how you look. At it precisely, and the price
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  tag tag is enormous. The study outlines a few
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  scenarios, but if the EU were to move away from this fragmented
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  approach. Where everyone's trying to do
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  their own little thing. Right.
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  If they move toward a truly united front, the economic
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  benefits could be at least 140 billion per year by 2050.
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  Wait, 140 billion? Yeah, a year.
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  Per year, yes. And that's not just abstract GDP
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  numbers. They estimate it could create
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  over 700,000 new jobs. Wow.
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  That's the difference between a fragmented industry and a
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  streamlined continental superpower.
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  That is a staggering amount of lost potential.
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  But it's not just about economics, is it?
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  The sources we looked at paint a picture of new Space race that
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  feels a lot more hostile. Oh, it's absolutely
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  geopolitical. Space is no longer just a global
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  Commons for science. It's a strategic domain, and you
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  see this tension so clearly in the Artemis Accords.
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  That's the US-led framework for exploring the Moon and Mars.
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  Right, it is, and not everyone is happy about the rulebook the
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  US is writing. Who's pushing back?
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  Russia has been very vocal. They've compared the US
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  executive orders on space mining and resource extraction to and I
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  quote, colonialism. Colonialism.
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  That's a strong word. It is.
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  They view the Accords as an extension of American hegemony
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  just moved into orbit. So you have the US pushing one
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  legal model, China and Russia pursuing their own thing, and
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  the EU is sort of caught in the middle.
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  Trying to figure out its own weight class.
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  It sounds like the EU really needs to decide what it wants to
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  be. Is it just a partner to the US
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  or an independent player? And that brings us to the core
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  strategy mentioned in the EU defense documents, Open
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  Strategic autonomy. OK, that sounds like a bit of a
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  buzzword salad. Open strategic autonomy.
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  What does that actually mean in practice?
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  It's a delicate balancing act. The definition is having the
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  ability to act alone when necessary, but cooperating with
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  partners when possible. So it's not isolationism.
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  No, definitely not. The sources explicitly mentioned
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  enhancing cooperation with NATO and like minded democratic
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  partners. But, and this is the big but,
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  the EU realizes it cannot be reliant on others for critical
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  capabilities. Because if you're reliant,
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  you're vulnerable. Exactly, and the vulnerabilities
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  are real. The reports highlight a
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  dependency on non EU chips and electronic components if supply
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  chains breakdown. Or a trade war starts.
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  Europe's satellites don't get built.
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  Simple as that. And it's not just the chips
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  inside the satellites, it's getting them off the ground.
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  I was reading about the launcher situation and it seemed
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  challenging was a polite word they used.
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  Challenging is a very diplomatic way to put it.
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  We're in a transition period. The heavy launchers, the Rockets
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  that get the big stuff into orbit are an issue.
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  Arian, 6 has faced delays. There have been issues with
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  Vegasy. So what does that mean?
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  It means for a period, Europe faces a risk of having limited
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  independent access to space. Imagine having a billion euro
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  satellite but having to ask SpaceX, a competitor, for a ride
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  That is not strategic autonomy. That's strategic hitchhiking.
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  And in a crisis, you can't rely on hitchhiking.
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  Then you have the issue of what happens once you're up there.
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  The sources talk a lot about Space Traffic Management or STM.
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  Right, because orbit is getting crowded.
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  It's not the empty void we imagine.
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  Far from it. You have the debris problem.
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  Thousands of pieces of junk flying at hypersonic speeds.
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  But you also have the weaponization risks.
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  What's the EU doing about that? They're pushing a campaign
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  called 3SOS Security, Safety and Sustainability, trying to
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  promote good behavior. It sounds like trying to enforce
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  traffic laws in the Wild West. It's a valid comparison and it
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  gets very technical. The reports emphasize the role
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  of the ITU, the International Telecommunication Union.
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  They manage radio frequencies. Sounds boring, but I'm guessing
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  it's critical. Absolutely.
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  If your satellite's frequency is jammed, that satellite is a
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  useless brick, and that spectrum is becoming a crowded
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  battlefield. So let's talk about the industry
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  itself. The reports distinguish between
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  upstream and downstream. Can we break those down for
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  everyone listening? Sure, it's quite
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  straightforward. Upstream is the hardware
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  building, the Rockets, the satellites, the ground stations.
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  And downstream. That's what you do with the data
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  once it's beaming back to Earth. So agriculture apps, aviation
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  tracking, urban planning, banking systems.
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  And the big money is usually in the downstream right using the
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  data. The massive economic value is
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  downstream, yes, but you can't have the downstream without the
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  upstream. And this is where the EU has an
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  innovation problem. What's the issue?
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  The sources highlight that Europe is fantastic at research,
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  brilliant papers, great concepts, but we struggle to
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  scale startups compared to the US.
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  This is that classic European Valley of Death for new
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  companies. It is the report explicitly
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  warns about the risk of EU startups being sold to non EU
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  giants, often American companies.
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  When that happens, the know how the intellectual property it
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  leaves Europe. So European taxpayers fund the
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  research, but the benefit goes elsewhere.
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  And the strategic control goes with it.
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  We did find some really cool examples of companies fighting
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  this trend, though. The reports mentioned a few
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  specific players. Yes, it's not all doom and
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  gloom. There is a vibrant ecosystem.
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  I was particularly drawn to the Danish angle here Copenhagen
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  suborbitals. Yes, the amateurs.
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  It's described as a crowdfunded nonprofit.
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  They're trying to fly an amateur astronaut into space on their
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  Spika rocket. It just feels very garage band.
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  It's a great example of that new space spirit democratizing
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  access. Yeah, but you also have more
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  industrial attempts. Look at Arca space in Romania.
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  What are they doing? Developing the Ecorocket, which
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  uses water based propulsion. It's an attempt to make launches
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  cheaper and greener, which you know aligns with EU goals.
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  And then you have whole national strategies Poland really stood
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  out to. Me.
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  Their ambition is huge. They set a goal for their space
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  sector turnover to reach 3% of the total European market by
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  20-30. That is incredibly ambitious.
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  They're trying to move up the value chain, not just be
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  consumers of data, but producers of technology.
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  And then you have a Luxembourg. Luxembourg is fascinating.
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  It's so tiny, but it's positioned itself as this huge
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  hub for space business. They realized early on that
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  space mining and resources needed a legal and business
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  home, so they created a regulatory environment that
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  attracts those companies. It's a very clever niche
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  strategy. So we have these pockets of
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  innovation, but the report suggests they aren't enough on
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  their own. What's the fix for that startup
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  scaling issue? The sources point to
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  procurement. So buying stuff from them.
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  Exactly. In the US, NASA acts as an
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  anchor customer. They say to a company like
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  SpaceX, if you build it, we will buy 10 launches.
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  That guarantees revenue. And the EU needs to do more of
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  that. Yes, specific procurement
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  programs for SME, small and medium sized enterprises.
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  We need to stop them from being crushed by the big incumbents.
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  We need to award contracts that let them grow.
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  So put your money where your mouth is.
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  Don't just give a grant, give a contract.
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  Precisely, a grant to charity, a contract is a business model.
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  Let's zoom out to the future. That EPRS study laid out four
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  scenarios for where the EU could go.
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  They range from low impact to high impact.
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  Scenario one is the status quo fragmented?
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  We keep doing what we're doing. And the impact of that is low.
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  We just stay dependent on the US and China.
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  Which is, as we've established, geopolitically dangerous.
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  Then you jump to scenario 4. This is the ideal state.
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  Full open strategic autonomy. Right, This assumes the EU
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  member states actually agree to pool resources, unify governance
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  and really go for it. And that's where they have a 40
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  billion reward comes from. Yes, but the stakes are not just
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  financial. This connects back to the
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  Strategic Compass for security and defense.
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  Space is now officially a strategic domain.
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  So what are the threats they're worried about?
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  Cyber attacks on ground assets, hacking control centers, jamming
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  signals and even anti satellite weapons.
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  If a conflict breaks out on Earth, the eyes in the sky will
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  be the first targets. And if the EU is relying on
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  someone else's satellites? The lights go out.
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  Banking, logistics, military coordination, it all just stops.
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  It's terrifying to realize how much of our daily life really
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  hangs on those satellites. And that is the why should I
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  care for the listener? You might think space is about
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  Mars Rovers and pretty pictures of nebula.
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  But it's your ATM transaction. Your GPS navigation, the supply
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  chain that brings food to your supermarket.
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  That is all space data. If the EU loses influence or
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  access, it affects your daily life, your daily sovereignty.
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  So to sum it up, we have the technology.
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  We have Galileo for navigation, which is actually more precise
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  than American GPS. We have Copernicus for Earth
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  observation. We have the tech.
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  What we lack is the unified governance and the unified
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  budget to leverage it. Which brings us to the big,
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  thorny question. We've looked at the reports, the
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  numbers, the strategies, but there's a political reality
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  here. And this is the provocative
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  thought that really lingers after reading all these
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  documents. The reports make it crystal
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  clear. Fragmentation is the enemy.
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  To get that 140 billion reward to be secure, Europe must unite
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  its space policy. But look at the political
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  landscape in Europe right now. Rising nationalism.
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  Exactly, In a Europe where countries are becoming more
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  protective of their borders and their budgets, can Member States
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  actually agree to hand over enough power to a central EU
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  space authority? Are France, Germany, Italy,
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  Poland willing to subordinate their national industries to a
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  collective strategy? That is the paradox.
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  The logic says unify, but the politics might say me first.
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  And if the politics win, open strategic autonomy might just
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  remain a buzzword in APDF file while the US and China carve up
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  the solar system. It raises the question, is the
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  dream of a united European Space power just a pipe dream in the
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  current political climate? Something for you, the listener,
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  to Mull over. Can we afford the cost of non
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  Europe or can we afford the political cost of unification?
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  A massive thank you to everyone for joining us on this
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  exploration of the EU space strategy.
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  We. Hope this analysis of the source
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  material has given you a new perspective on what's happening
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  just above our heads. It certainly highlights that
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  gravity isn't the only thing holding us back.
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  That's a good way to put it. Remember, if you want to support
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  Thank you for listening. Until next time, keep looking
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  up. Goodbye.