Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Why Nvidia Just Changed Everything + Stock Market News 20 November 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Why Nvidia Just Changed Everything + Stock Market News 20 November 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: I woke up this morning to these news alerts on my phone courtesy of Trade Vision, and it says to me that everything's just changed.
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_00: Everything till the end of the year, Santa rally, all that good stuff.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: It's all different now.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: And it is, of course, thanks to NVIDIA, the good folks who just put out the report that we were all waiting for.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: And if I look at the post-market heat map, so the stock price movements after the Nvidia reports out.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: 5% up on NVIDIA, ABGO is up, AMD is up, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Oracle, Amazon, everyone's up.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: It's a beautiful day.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: And of course, it's because of all the AI news related to that.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: So I want to walk you briefly through what you need to understand from what Jensen Huang said.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: And then also, how does it affect other stocks?
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: How does it affect AMD?
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: Is it good or bad for them?
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: How about Palandria?
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: How about Tesla?
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: How about the rest of the market?
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: Which stocks is this bad news for?
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: Because there are some that are badly affected by this.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: And most people won't understand this until it's too late.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: So I want you guys to be informed.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: So in that spirit, I've also put together a 50-page research report.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: This is for our premium members.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: There's a link down below if you want to get access to that.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: But I'm going to walk you through the core stuff here in the interest of, you know, everybody deserves the right information.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: So essentially, Juan came out and he said, we don't see an A-bubble.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: We see demand that is off the charts.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: We see companies making real returns.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: That's real money on the AI investments.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: They're not just spending money.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: So he's basically saying we're not in some crazy wasteful spending bubble.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: This is actually a good business.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: On top of that, he says he's got$500 billion worth of orders, which is a two-year order book that is chocker blocker full.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: That's of course great news for NVIDIA.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: Think about where the 500 billion come from, but different story.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: So before we dive deeper into this and what this really means and what's off the chat and how to benefit from this, and I'm not going to bore you stiff with a ton of like financial numbers because you can read this in your own time.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: That's not really what this is all about.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: What I want to make sure you understand is where is the opportunity?
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: Why is it opportunity?
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: And which stocks should we possibly be in?
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: If you're wondering who you should want to listen, listen to me.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: Well, Winston back there used to be an investment banker.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: I was his lap dog.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: And since I retired, I sort of came up with this idea and this mission.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: Wouldn't it be wonderful if everybody knew what we learned from my boss and my Wall Street and my investment banking and my H5 mentors?
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: Because those guys have rules.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_00: They have a rule book, literally.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: There's like a key to the city sort of thing.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: And most of us out there just don't have that, right?
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: So the whole purpose here is to make that happen, which is why we are also running a live training for free on Saturday.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: And you can get your free ticket for that at phoenixfriends.org/slash training.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure you're on time because those rooms fill up, even though they're virtual rooms, they're limits to them.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: And I will actually teach you the rules and stuff that I'm skipping past here a little bit in the interest of making this time efficient for you.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: But the the key thing here really is NVIDIA is just a great, great business because of something called QDA, which most of you don't understand.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: It's their software.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: They have four million developers trained on this software system.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: That's how you build stuff in AI.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: So those four million people do not wish to be retrained on the AMD system or the Intel system or some other system.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: And they are therefore going to say, buy NVIDIA chips.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: And the companies that employ these four million developers are going to go, what's easier?
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: Replacing the entire development crew or just buying the chips that those guys want.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: Well, let's just buy the chips those guys want.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_00: That's essentially what's happening here.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: So the real moat, the real defense, the real strength of NVIDIA is that system.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: I've been singing that off the rooftops for ages.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: But here it is, black and white, and then you've got performance and everything else.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: But that's kind of um beyond that.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: Now I also walk you through here what the actual motes are precisely for NVIDIA, and we don't need to run through every single one of them.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: But one is size.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: Nvidia spends twice as much money as AMD on research.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: So if you're trying to catch up, and that's what AMD is doing, well, it's tough to catch up when you're spending half the money, half the RD budget, right?
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_00: And they're reading on lower margins.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_00: So it's not like they can really, you know, squeeze out a lot more money there.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_00: So it's a challenge for AMD.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: Does that mean it's all over for AMD?
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: No, it's not.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: And I want to look at specifically AMD, Palantia, Tessa, how these guys get impacted.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_00: And then we also want to talk about the losers.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: But let's just look at the NVIDIA stock chart here for a second.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: That blue box I put in there, and I put that in there ages ago, that was sort of the we're going sideways thing, right?
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: We started here and we sort of did our heartbeat thing, broke out of it a little bit, came back into it, came back into it.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: What are we seeing right now?
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the beautiful thing with these kind of boxes, or even the 50-day moving average line there, which I've got on, which is the line of all lines, the only line that matters, the one and only line that you need to be married to.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: That line is a support line.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: And we got support from it again and again and again and again.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: And right now we seem to be really taking off here.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: So that's positive.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: That builds support.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: It means every time we dip a little bit, the buyers are back.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: The buyers are winning, right?
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: So is this a good time to buy?
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: Well, what what's above where we are?
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: We are here right now, right?
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: That's that's here, right now.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: Well, there is a little bit of resistance up here, but not a lot, right?
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: We've cleared that hurdle, we've cleared this hurdle, we've cleared the recent ones down here.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: So this actually looks very, very positive.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_00: Now, one thing, one data point that nobody seems to have, but we do in trade vision and only in trade vision, it's institutional resistance.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: What's institutional resistance?
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: Essentially, it's hedging flows.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: We can estimate where those institutions need to sell.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: So they need to sell at$200.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm recording this, we're trading at$196.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: So I might ask myself, well, maybe I wait the$4 and see whether we hit that line and come back down and do nothing, or whether we actually break through it, meaning for financial advice, not telling you what to do.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just saying it's an extra piece of data that you know have that you didn't have before.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: So grab yourself a free trial to TradeVision.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: There's a link down below to that as well.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if we go into AMD and we kind of circle back into NVIDIA and what it means for the rest of the market, what do you see here?
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: Well, to start with, you have some higher resistance points there to where we are right now, right?
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: We're down here right now.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, we are above the 59 moving average line.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: That's a good thing, right?
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: We've kind of recovered quite a lot.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: But there is also an ugly pattern that's kind of staring at me here.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: And it's not the cleanest in the world, but it is that.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: And that is, my friends, a head and shoulder pattern.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: So this is the head, this is the shoulder, this is the other shoulder.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: You get the idea?
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_00: That's the funky looking chap.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: Now, when you break below the armpit line, which is this line here that I'm drawing, bad things happen.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: We bounced off it here.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_00: So it might be our saving grace.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: It might just be that NVIDIA, with the sentiment of the market improving, is pulling them out of that.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: But the danger still lurks there that we might dip back down, in which case, not so good.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: Now, what's the second danger?
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_00: And it's not a big one, but it's a little one.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: It is that these guys here, they are losers.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: Right?
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: They're sad, they've lost money.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_00: They might sell AMD when it creeps back up and put their money back into NVIDIA.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_00: Possible.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_00: Saying it'll happen, but it's possible.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_00: So it's basically a resistance area here we need to be aware of.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: Institutional resistance sits at 250.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_00: We're trading at 233 as I'm recording this.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_00: So if you go into NVIDIA and you can say, well, those are the same apply there.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_00: No, because the only people who've ever lost money on NVIDIA are these four people here.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: Like nobody, basically.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_00: It's a tiny, tiny, tiny group.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_00: So it's very little resistance for this thing to go up beyond, except for the$200 institutional resistance that I'm highlighting here, once more.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: MD is not bad.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_00: It's just like looking like a less good setup right now to me than NVIDIA.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: So if we go back into the report a little bit, I'm not even going to talk about Intel, forget about it.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_00: Um, there are other ways you can get exposure to this through um ETFs and so on.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: But really, I want to also circle back to who else benefits from this and also who doesn't, because you might hold some of those stocks that are not benefiting from this and actually gonna get hurt by this.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_00: There's one in particular that is quite popular and that's getting hard, hit pretty hard, and most people don't see it coming yet.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_00: So let's circle back to Palantir.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_00: Now, Palantir's setup right now is not one I like.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_00: And you know, I've been talking about Palantir for for years.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_00: I think we first started talking about Palantir.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: I recorded it somewhere here.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: It was at like$20, right?
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_00: So now we're at 172.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_00: It's been a good run.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: It is a good run, continues to be a good run.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: But there are a couple of problems with the current setup.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_00: The first is that the line of all lines, the 50-day moving average line, it's flat.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: Flat lines are bad.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, bad, not good, bad.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: We don't like them.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: Lines should point up.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_00: And we're below that line in addition, which is also another warning signal.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_00: We also have where we are trading right now, even with a little bit of a momentum bounce, all of these geniuses who bought far too late, who um are badholders, right?
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_00: Sad people who've lost money, losers right now.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: And when this creeps back up, which it may well do, those guys are gonna sell.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: So what does that therefore mean for the for the recovery?
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_00: It means you don't get this.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: No, you get you get the idea, right?
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_00: Because all these buggers are selling.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_00: So that's a problem.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_00: Not something to understand when you're looking at a stock chart, especially if you're in it for a shorter term profit.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_00: Now, secondly, down here, so thirdly, maybe even down here we have an indicator and it's called MRSI.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_00: You're gonna find that absolutely nowhere except in Trade Vision.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_00: It's the one thing that everybody looks at in on in professional traders, in my humble opinion.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: And it tells you is Palantir better than its industry?
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: So then it's competitors, incredibly important because you want to find a winning industry and then you want to find the one that's actually winning right now, as in money's flowing into it.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_00: And right now, what do I see?
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I see it trending down.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: Still a positive number, it's still pretty good, but it's trending down.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_00: I don't like trending down, I like trending up, and the easiest way to make money is to follow the money, in my humble opinion.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: So a bit of a warning signal here on Palantir.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_00: It might go sideways for a while, it might not do all that much.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_00: What about Tesla?
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_00: Well, Tesla is also below that magic 50-day moving average line.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: So that's not good, right?
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_00: Recovering a bit.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_00: Now, are they going to benefit from AI?
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_00: Hell yeah.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_00: Because when the robots come out and the cars are all driving themselves, the Tesla is going to be a tremendous winner in this, in my humble opinion.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_00: But right now, they're not seen as direct a winner as, say, a Microsoft or a Google or an Amazon because those guys are buying NVIDIA chips and they're selling a service off the back end.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_00: It's a more direct correlation.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_00: Tesla is buying chips and then they're building a product that they're about to launch and then they're going to make money down the road, right?
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_00: It's a longer, more difficult thought process.
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_00: And there's one thing I've learned about bankers longer and difficult thought processes is not really something that they excel in, right?
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_00: They want you to hit them in the in the face with it.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: Meta, also very bullish for meta.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_00: So Tesla, kind of neutral.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: Now there's one I want to come back to, and um I want to I want to highlight here, and there are there are a ton of winners in this, but this is one, Arista, ANET.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_00: Right?
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_00: This is a problem because NVIDIA has a Spectrum X Ethernet platform that competes directly with Arista.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: So if you're Arista and you're like, yeah, yeah, we are these great, whatever we do, Ethernet platform people.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we now have the biggest Goliath on the planet.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_00: It's competing with us.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_00: And guess what?
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the smart money realized it up here.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_00: And what were they realizing?
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_00: Well, actually, this was your warning signal.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_00: That's when that line was going sideways and was telling you, be careful.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_00: And then you get the fake out.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_00: There's always a fake out, almost always, right?
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_00: But that was basically your get the F out of this warning.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_00: And then what happens?
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_00: You get a gap down through the 50 moving average line, and then you know you've lost all your money.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_00: Not quite yet, but you know, it's uh it's a pretty 23% drawdown in a market like this.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_00: That's kind of tough.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_00: So this is not a good setup, not a good setup at all.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_00: So be careful of that, at least in my humble opinion, right?
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_00: Now, there are always risks with all of this and everything else, but there are some beautiful opportunities.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_00: We're just gonna look at this, or we look at the the Nasdaq here, and we just see how the market is like buoyed by this.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_00: Or if you look at my um some of the robotic stocks, right?
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_00: They're also looking quite sweet and green here.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_00: If you look at the semiconductor industry as a whole, green, green, green, right?
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_00: Like reminds us of Christmas, doesn't it?
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_00: Look at that one AMKR 10.4% up, right?
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_00: There are some winners in here that a lot of people don't know about.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what I've been saying for the last couple of months.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: You don't need to be in the biggest name.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_00: You can win potentially bigger because you're in something that is a little bit less discovered, right?
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_00: And this has been a glorious run-up, an absolute textbook run-up from down here, about$20 up 50% gain on that, more than if you were in the big guys, right?
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_00: So if you are better educated, if you are better skilled, which is what this is all about, then you can potentially spot better companies in this sector.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: And even if the market goes down, and I showed you that yesterday, you can still make money, right?
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_00: We can still make money on stocks even when things are going down, because there's always a sector that's actually doing well, that's actually defensive, right?
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_00: So we were talking yesterday about, was it yesterday or the day before?
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: This one here, Vera Bradley, Aparal, they make handbacks and quilts, right?
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_00: Um, I also mentioned Ralph Loren, for example, which has been on our buy list for quite some time.
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_00: Beautiful rally, right?
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_00: Since Ralph Loren's kind of come out of the doldrums, um, where was the buy point?
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_00: I can't remember where we called it, to be honest.
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_00: So let's be uh be generous on the on the on the downside.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_00: Let's just say, you know, you've got on sort of latish there.
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_00: Still a really nice run-up.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_00: And there are plenty of these stocks, and it's been going up for a while.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_00: So think about it.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_00: You could have bought Ralph Loren, which is really not the sexiest business in the world, beginning of the year, whereas the beginning of the year, it's here, and you'd be up 45%, right?
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_00: By being in a shirt maker kind of thing, you know, up around polo shirts, that kind of thing.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_00: So you don't always need to be all exposed to the riskiest thing.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the biggest problem I see in people's portfolios, is that they are all in tech, all in tech.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_00: And you don't need to be.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_00: There are other opportunities out there, and that could potentially give you more safety, more security, more, you know, calmness when the sea gets rocky, which it did last week for many of you.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_00: I know.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_00: So if you want to learn more about how we do that, how Wall Street actually has rules, three rules of how to pick stocks better, potentially, then join me on Saturday at feedixfriends.org slash training.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_00: That'll be live, that'll be unadulterated.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_00: Get yourself these news alerts from Trade Vision, because it means that you are actually informed.
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_00: You actually know what's happening out there to your stocks and your stocks only.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_00: Because the beautiful thing with this is that I can toggle on news alerts just for my stocks.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_00: I don't get the world's news.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_00: I don't care about the world's news, zero interest, but I care about what I hold.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_00: I care about what matters to me, I care about that stuff, right?
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_00: So you can toggle that on and then you get them on your mobile phone.
• 16:49
  SPEAKER_00: So it's super, super useful.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_00: I wish you a beautiful rest of the week.
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_00: I hope Santa comes around with the Santa rally.
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_00: This is certainly made things look a lot better.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_00: The Fed starts cutting a little bit more aggressively, get the December cut, then it's gonna be marvelous.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_00: Otherwise, we might be in a lull and we might have to wait till 2026 because Trump's gonna want to pump the midterms, isn't he?
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, that's gonna be good for us.
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_00: So you understand these things, understand these macro events, but also on a stock by stock level.
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_00: I think you're gonna have better outcomes.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_00: I wish you great success.