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Final Four Betting Guide · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: hundred Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to The Favorites,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I'm Chad Moman,
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We're heading into
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: the final four, but as always, football is everywhere, and
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: so Simon Hunter professional better, my companion, my compadre, my bff.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: It's good to see your brother. Good to see you, buddy.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: We're big time now. I keep saying that every time
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: I came here, but we actually have three producers now
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: for our little rinky Dink show. I'm sitting here with
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: three producers. Chad. We have more producers than we do
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: have hosts of this show. It's pretty incredible. I think
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: it's an indication of how big the Volume is getting.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: They now have two producers. I'm looking forward to the
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: blood duel that will ensue to see who gets primacy
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: to be the a number one producer from the Volume
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: side of the Favorites. Anything before we get to, of course,
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: our Action Network college basketball experts who have been with
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: us all during the tournament, b J. Cunningham and Stucky.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Anything NFL related that we need to unpack before we
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: get to the college basketball. I mean, I know they
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: changed your overtime rules, which Matt Mitch would care less,
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: he's his old view is it's one year too late.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: It's not fair, it's not fair, But it's a change
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: that we all support, right, we all think in the playoffs,
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: both teams should get the ball, even though we know
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: they're both going to score the exhausted defenses. Still you
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: never know, like that the Chiefs and the Bengals game,
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: that the Chiefs got the ball, they couldn't score. They
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: had to pun it to the Bengals, which in turn
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: did score. So I didn't know. I didn't really think
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: they needed to make the change, But I'm cool of
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: them making the change. So to me, that's the biggest news. Like,
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: I know we have the tire kill everything, all this
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: crazy movement, but that that overtime rule in the playoffs,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be something that's a big deal going forward
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: for the rest of our lives. Yeah. Look like the
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: last few years since the overtime rule changed to the
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: touchdown scoring rules completely changed how you root for games, right,
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: and as you're getting close to the end of the game,
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: sometimes if your team is ahead, you're almost rooting for
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: the other team to tie, because if the spread is three,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: you want to get it into overtimes to give them
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: the potential to score a touchdown. You know, it's just
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: that much more intensity and sweat for the rest of us.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: It's just that much more drama. It's that much more discomfort.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: It's that much more you and me testing on a
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: Sunday afternoon, saying, I can't believe we bet on the
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: Las Vegas Raiders. Can't wait a dam Let's bring in
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: our boys. B J Cunningham, Stucky, You've been with us
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: throughout the college basketball tournament. We've made it to a
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: final four. We've got Kansas playing Villanova. We've got poetically
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: like proof that God is a sports fan. We've got
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: U n C taking on Duke for the first time
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  Speaker 1: ever in the n C Double A tournament. Coach K's
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: final set of games or game depending on what happens.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: How lucky are we? This is fantastic. Stucky is a
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: man who was literally created to beg college basketball. How
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: do you feel about this Final four? I'm just pissed
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: off this overtime I had. I had a huge bills
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: future last year from the preseason, so of course I
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: knew they were going to change it after the both
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: didn't get possessions. But the tournament has been awful overall.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: We kind of deserve these great matchups in the final four.
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  Speaker 1: Hopefully we get some buzzer beaters. And uh yeah, it's
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: about time that we get to Carolina in the final four.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: It's rare to get a conference matchup in the final four,
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: and since when the tournament expanded, this is the first
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  Speaker 1: matchup where two teams will meet in the final four
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: that split just two regular season meetings one to one.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: It's never happened before. It's only the fourth conference matchup
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: in the final four since two thousand. We've only seen
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: one in the past twenty years and that was Syracuse
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, And so yeah, it should be two really
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: good games. I'm excited for Villanova. Kansas to Vian was
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: a little shorthanded, but two great coaches there. So yeah,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: it's blue blood Central in the final four, so hopefully
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: we get some really good games. I'm just glad that St.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Peter's didn't make it another round because no one needed
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: a wait a week to watch them get waxed so yeah,
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: I'm really excited. I think we got the two really
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: good games coming up. I agree with you. I was.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: I was walking my dog this morning, twenty degrees here
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: in central Connecticut. At the end of March, I thought
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: to myself, these are the big thoughts I have as
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: a powerful media executive. We're getting the final four we
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: deserve because it was a kind of a boring tournament.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: You know, the drama was fun. There were no buzzer beaters,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: b J, no buzzer beaters. I know, it's insane, and
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: I feel like the first day was was pretty crazy
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: with all the upsets with Kentucky in Iowa, Connecticut, you know,
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: a bunch of teams going down. But after that there
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: really the only story was St. Peter's. I mean, we obviously,
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: you know, we had some really great games between Houston
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: and Arizona and pretty much every single number one seed
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: going down except for Kansas, who coming into the tournament.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of people would agree would maybe
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: the most fraudulent number one seed of all the other
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: number one seeds. You know, have Gonzaga going down the
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: steet sixteen. There's a lot of like weird, interesting things,
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: and somehow we have this narcissistic retirement tour continuing into
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: the Final four that I am just so sick of
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: and ready to be over with. Spoken like a true leader,
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: which is all Shazewski says he ever wanted to be.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: That's what I was trained to do. That's why I
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: went to West Point to be a leader. The headline
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: is gonna be coach K, Coach K, Coach K, Coach K,
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: down your throats for the next five days until we
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: finally get this thing over with. So I'm just hoping
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: and praying to God that dude does not win the title.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Ow dare you? How dare you? I mean, you gotta
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: admit this is this is ridiculous, Simon. I mean, we
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: are just on a pretty much a year long narcissistic
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: retirement to our out Coach K. I mean I am.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: I was sick of it in June when he announced it,
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: and I am still sick of it now. So I
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: am just ready for Duke to be done. If I
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: spend every waking moment trying to just be you, eventually
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: that becomes a shallow of life. That can't be what
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: motivates me. No respective history, no respect for his elders
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: chat unbelievable. These young kids nowadays. I, on the other hand,
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: have enjoyed it every time I'm watching these games with him,
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: and I'm like, this is it. Like I not that
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: I thought they're gonna lose the Texas Tech, but I
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: honestly did go into that game thinking like Texas Tech
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  Speaker 1: is gonna actually probably win this game, and it was
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: a weird feeling as a fan. I was like, this
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: is the last time I wanna watch coach k which
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: it's just different. I don't know, he's been in all
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: of our lives, were so long on their sideline. I'm
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: I'm very nostalgic about it. So I'm the opposite end
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: of you. I'm like, just sad about these coaches who
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: That's what I think of now with college basketball's change,
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: where it's not really I'm not attached to the players
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: that I was when I was really young. It's more
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: about the coaches for me as I've gotten older, so
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: it's just something I'm gonna miss. So I'm I'm enjoying it.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: But I feel like we all know how this is
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: gonna end. It feels a little rig that Duke's gonna
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: somehow win this whole tournament. Oh, Duke is a d
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: percent winning the tournament. There's no doubt about it. If
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: the refs went out of their way for Baylor to
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: come back from twenty five against North Carolina and did
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: everything they could to keep Baylor to to get Baylor
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: to advance and they still couldn't, There's no way Duke
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: is not winning the national title. I'm with you, though, Simon.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: I'm not a Duke fan at all. You know, I
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: don't have Duke animus, but like, I've never liked him
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: that much. I've always rooted from North Carolina over Duke.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: But there's something about this run that I've been very
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: sentimental about. I keep thinking about the finality to sort
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: of a long career that has been so successful. I
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: also feel like coach k has been a little bit warmer.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: He's like been a little bit more grandfatherly. It's made
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: him made me feel a little bit more, like you said,
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: nostalgic about the experience, stuck. Are you feeling and he
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: feels for Duke? No, I don't really care. I mean,
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: I appreciate the history, but I mean I grew up
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: hating Duke coming to my Duke so it was the
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: first team that I hated. He loved Duke. He was
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: at the Latener shot front row under the basket that
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: he made the shot and wow, And I didn't talk
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: to him like a week. I was I was only
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: like I was six years old, Um, so I don't
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: really remember. But my mom said I cried and then
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't talk to him for a week. So I
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: grew up hating Duke. And then they were playing Kentucky.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: And then I married a girl, a Kentucky girl. My
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: dad says that's the only reason I did is because
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: of that shot. To get him back for it now,
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: but I mean, I appreciate the history of it. And
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Duke's playing really well, probably the most talented team in
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: the country if you just go by composite recruiting ranks
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: and you know that you have like Kentucky, Duke, Memphis,
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: you know these are the teams that are up there,
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: just pure talent. And then Caroline is playing as well
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: as they have been since March first. They're the best
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: team in the country by a lot of metrics, and
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: they wax Duke to end the seasons. There's a lot
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: of storylines here, and then two teams playing really well
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: with a lot of talent. So I'm just excited for
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: game itself and I can appreciate the history of it.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: There will be some some emotion there to see coach
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: k if that is his last game or not. I
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: think it just adds to the drama of the final
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: four and and the week long build up in a
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: tournament that hasn't had that much drama. Um, we're not
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: gonna be lacking for it in this in this game
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: for sure. Well listen, I think it's funny that the
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: two people who you would think are the most hard
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: scrabble when it comes to college basketball because we're not
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: regular watchers, are feeling the most sentimental and two people
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: who are more invested in college basketball emotionally and financially
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: could give a ship. So I think that's good because
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: now you can break down the games with zero sentimentality
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: or attachment. I'll say one more thing, I want to
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: break down the games. I've been incredibly annoyed at the
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: television schedule. I feel like they've screwed this up. I
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: feel like the way they are programming some of these games,
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: who they're putting on when they're putting them in the windows.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: I just want to get that off my chest. I
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: thought it was like very specific when Duke played in
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: the ten o'clock window on the East Coast and got
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Zaga played in the seven o'clock window. Get that game
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: at seven o'clock in prime time where everybody in the
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: East Coast can watch the whole game because no one
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: in the East Coast was staying up until one o'clock.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: For was potentially his last game, especially not someone who
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: goes to bed at ten o'clock. But whatever, stuck break
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: it down. No, Justin Moore in Villanova, Kansas opened at
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: three and a half, immediately bet to four, up to
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: four and a half on the news of Justin Moore.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Give me your take. Yeah, I think it's a little
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: too high. I think we might see a five, and
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: then I'm gonna take Villanova. I make this line like
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: a little under one, close to a coin flip. More's
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: worth about two points to the spread. For me, it's
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: a little hard. You could argue that he's worth a
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: little more. They're all a lot of depth. So the
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: minutes the on off splits with him on the court
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: and off not significant, but a player of his caliber
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: in the pace that Villanova place and they play really slowly.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: This is a pace clash. This is Villaneville plays really
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: slow bottom fifteen and adjusted tempo. Candice wants to play
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: fast top sixteen adjusted tempo. But I think more it's
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: worth about two points. But I think for the first
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: game without them if it might not sting as much.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: Like I don't think Nova can win it all now
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: and that can't. They could, but it's just gonna take
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: a lot. And Moore's loss is gonna be really significcause
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: he's big on defense. He's big in their pick and roll,
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: and he's big backing down defenders when they invert their offense.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: He can post up guards and he's really effective there
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: as well. So he's effective in many different facets. And
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: it's a team that just doesn't have depth or they're
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: they're you know, outside the top three bench minutes, they
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: don't a lot of guys. So who are you going
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: to get in for him? That's a major question mark.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Gond be antoine is it uh? Since it gets a
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: little iffy, But they played without him one game this
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: year and they waxed yukon a really good team. They
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: were up by tend ago. They ended up winning by eleven.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: And I like backing these teams when they lose a
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: key player for the first game without them, and you know,
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: you kind of have this factor to two things work
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: in your favor. Everyone else kind of steps up. You
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: know it's all right, we know more is out, we
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: know we all have to step up. And then the
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: other thing, which I think is more important is that
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: you have a really good coach here with the whole
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: week to prepare, is that you're probably gonna get different
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: looks from Villanova that Kansas doesn't have on film. I'm
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: sure Jay Wright's gonna cook up some different things that
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: Candas doesn't have on tape that might be effective early on.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: And look, Villanova keeps you out of transition and their
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: elite defending in transition. What you have to do against Kansas,
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: they're so good when they get out and run. Villanova's
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: gonna grind this game down to a hall. I think
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: they're gonna work through Dixon, They're gonna work through the
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: post a lot more. They're gonna have some tricks up
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: their sleeve. But you know you can you can have
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: some success as against the Kansas big on offense and
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: Villanova is a really good defense. I think Antoine can
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: step in and still be effective. So I think there's
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: too many points and what I think will be a
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: lower scoring game total. One can get five with Jay
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: right here. It's a Kansas team that has struggled for
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: most of the season to get margin um, So I
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: don't think it's a terrible matchup for Nova. The loss
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: of more hurts, but I think it's being over accounted
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: for in the market, and for a one game without them,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: I think everyone else can step up. You might have
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: some new looks. So I'll be on Nova here and
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: I hope I'm waiting to see if I can get five.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: P J Yeah, I agree with him. I'm just to
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: at off what stuck. He said. The main point is,
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: you know, a great coach like Jay Wright having a
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: lot of time to prepare for this is huge. I
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: think that especially if they keep out of transition and
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: playing this game in the half court, it's gonn of
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: benefit them greatly because Kansas, while they're really getting transition,
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: they're really not that effective in the half court. Their
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: hundred fifty second and points possession and half court offense,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: and what Villanova does a fantastic job at and you
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: saw it against Houston is they keep teams away from
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: the rim. Their top twenty five in terms of preventing
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: teams getting the rim and then also top twenty five
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: in field goal percentage allowed at the rim. So that
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: forced Houston into a lot of outside shots. They obviously
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: went one of twenty from behind the ark. Now, obviously
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: you know that's not gonna over time, their regression is
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: going to catch up with them, and a lot of
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: those shots for Houston were open. But it echoes a
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: larger point that that's what Houston was forced to do.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: They weren't forced to be able to get anything inside.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: So David McCormick and Mitch Lightfoot, even though they have
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: high advantages over anybody that Villanova has up there, I
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: still think Villana will be effective down in the post.
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: So I agree with Stuffy. I think the number is
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: floating a tad too high. The question mark I have
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: is Jay Right can switch things up. You know, Villain
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: obviously runs a ton of pick and roll and shoots
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: a lot of threes. Well, Kansas is very good at
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: defending both those things. So if they can play this
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: game in the half court like suck said, maybe go
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: through the post a little bit more. With Dickson, I
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: think it's a decent matchup for Villanova, So I agree
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: with Stucky. If we can get a five, I'll be
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: with him firing on Villanova. What if you can't. Right now,
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: of the bets are on Kansas. Of the money, I
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: think that was a lot of early money that moved it.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: What if it doesn't get to five, I mean I'd
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: probably end up just playing four and a half at
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: a principle. Uh, maybe you can get a better number live, uh,
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: and maybe you can get a situation where if Villanova
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: goes up early, which they've gone up early pretty much
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: every game in this tournament and has been able to
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: control the pace, you may be able to get a
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: nice middle situation and get Kansas out of plus number.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: So if if Villanova can start fast and get out
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: and make a few shots to start the game and
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: slow this tempo down, I do believe Kansas can get
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: back in this game. So you might get a good
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: chance in the middle. But four and a half is
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: getting close and probably good enough for me to play it. Yeah,
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: I like I like hearing that, So look at this
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: in this matchup U n C Duke eight seed first,
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: the two seed. All I heard all year. I just
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: gotta get this all my chest. The a c C,
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: how bad it was. We heard it all year about
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: how bad a SEC was. Now we're sitting here with
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: two teams in the final four. Would you both agree
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: I'll go to you first, b J, that the either
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: team Duke or UNC will be favorite versus Kansas or
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: Nova in the final. I would think that Kansas would
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: probably be a favorite over U n C. But I
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: do think that Duke will be a favorite over Nova
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: or Kansas. So I think the only scenario you have
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: there is Kansas being a favorite. But I mean you
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: talk about the a CEC, I mean they were bad
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: for most of the season. It's basically just Duke or nothing.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: And North Carolina has gotten hot here in the tournament,
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: and you know Miami obviously got hot as well. So yeah,
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: at the end of the season we can say the
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: a CEC was great, but during the regular season they weren't.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: Like it wasn't even close to the level of the
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: SEC or Big Ten. So um, yeah, it's this just
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: kind of happens from time to time, and tournament teams
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: get hot and then at the end we say, oh
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: my gosh, the a C is great, but the reality was,
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: for most season they really weren't Duke. Duke and Duke
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: and Kansas are about even. From a Power Writings perspective,
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: you'd probably get Duke driven out to a one one
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. Maybe oddsmakers open it there
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: because they'll probably be some public love for Duke, especially
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: after they beat Carolina. But from a metric standpoint, most
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: people would would line that game right around a pick.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: And then you know, right now, Duke is a four
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: point favorite over Carolina, so you can assume that you know,
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: Carolina is a four point underdog against Kansas as well.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: But North Carolina would have just beat Duke. They'll probably
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: get a bump for that. Depending on how Kansas looks
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: against the underman Nova team, I don't know. I would
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: say it's probably gonna be Kansas minus three, maybe two
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: and a half, depends on how good North Carolina and
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: Kansas look, but Kansas would definitely be favorite over North Carolina.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: Duke Kansas toss up, and I think that it would
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: end up being Duke a small favorite. Wow. Yeah, I
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• 21:00
  Speaker 1: this matchup, we'll start with U B J. What do
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: you think man? You n see duke four points in
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: a matchup where these teams have already faced each other.
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: Isn't that one of those where it's like I gotta
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: just throw my phant amount just take the four points,
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: like this line is too high for this kind of
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: a matchup. Yeah, I think the line is priced pretty
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: correctly in this matchup. What I'm very interested to see
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: from Duke a lot of the narrative round is because
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: North Carolina plays a very fast tempo their top forty
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: and adjusted tempo. But the two matchups that they faced,
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: Duke just torched North Carolina and transition one point one
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: five points possession the first matchup and one point to
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: four in the second. So Duke obviously plays a slower
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: pace in North Carolina. You could say, well, if they
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: play in the half court, that's gonna be advantage they
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: can keep North Carolina at a transition. Well, North Carolina
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: is outside the top two hundred defending and transition. And
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: with those two matchups earlier, I mean the second matchup,
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: there were seventy five possessions. That's the fastest pace that
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: Duke has played all throughout the a C Regular season
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: Conference Tournament and the n c A Tournament. So with both,
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: I think that it actually is an advantage for Duke
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: to play a track me here with North Carolina, given
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: the success they've had against them before. What I find
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: interesting in that second match because need A team really
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: shot the ball lights out, even though we had a
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: hundred and seventy five points. I mean both were about
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: from inside of the ark. Only six teen threes were
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: made in the game. But these teams combined for ninety
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: two points at the rim, and both of them are
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: very good teams at defending at the rim, So that's
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: that I find that very interesting. I think we'll probably
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: see some regression there. The difference in that game was
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: not kind of just got to line twenty two times
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: and Dukette under ten three throws. So both these teams
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: are top ten in terms of free throw re allowed.
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: So it's it's really really interesting. I actually like the
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: over a hundred fifty one points. I know we're playing
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: in a football stadium here and the site lines and
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: all that jazz that could throw off teams shooting, but
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: I really think the pace is going to be very
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: fast in this one because given the matchup and at
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: the fact that North Carolina is actually very good in
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: the half court in terms of defense, that the second
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: best defensive rebounding team, they don't foul. I think it's
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: actually a big advantage for Duke to get out of
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: trans get out and transition and play this as somewhat
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: of a fast pace. So the total sitting at one one.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: I actually like the over here. Even if these teams
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: come out shooting, it comes out slow, maybe nervous a
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: little bit. You might be able to get jumping on
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: alive over as well. So I think we're gonna see
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: a fast paced game and a lot of points here.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: In the third meeting Stuck, I would lean towards Carolina here.
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: I think the line is pretty good. I mean, Duke
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: was an eleven and a half point favorite at home
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: and that Coach k send off at their from his
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: home finale, and Carolina rolled. Duke rolled on Carolina's home court.
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: But since that game, you know, you have you had
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: some public money built into that, the situation of coach
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: gas final home game, and you know Cameron is worth
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: you know in the conference gave me upwards of four
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: points in that spot for maybe four and a half
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: points in that particular spot, so you know you would say, okay, well, Duke,
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: now the neutral court should be what six seven? But Carolinas,
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: you know, won that game. They get a huge bump.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: Duke gets downgraded. And since the first of the month,
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: which is a seven game sample size, pretty big sample size,
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: and when we're talking thirty games, that's about a quarter
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: of the year, Caroline has been the best team in
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: the country. And if you adjust for an opponent, and
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: they've been they've been played ing to the team that
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: we thought and look, their peak is as good as
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: anyone in the country, maybe just slightly below Duke's. But
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: the problem is with Carolina all years that the consistency
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: wasn't there. You would see them, you know, lose at
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: home to Boston College and it's just a defense didn't
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: show up in certain games. But it's a tournament you
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: can expect the defensive shop and that's been the case
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: so far the tournament. All their guards are playing really well.
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: Brady Mannock is a is a matchup problem, you know
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: when you got Bay caught in the middle. It's just
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: a really talented team and I've been impressed with what
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: their first time at coaching Davis has done and some
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: of the adjustments that he's made. So I think that
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: Duke should be favorite of the line is about right,
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: But I think it's gonna come down to the wire.
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: I don't think either defense can really stop the other offense.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: Duke's defense still has major issues that you know, everyone
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: is really forgetting about down the stretch. They couldn't stop
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: a nosebleed. You know, they got just shredded by Virginia Tech.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: They got shredded by North Carolina, and then you know
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: they get tournament. They look better, but they've played. You know,
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: Arkansas doesn't have a great offense. Texas Tech has a
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: horrific offense, uh and they still scored at will. North
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Carolina is the best offense by far that Duke will face.
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: They can really exploit some of the off ball issues
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: that they have. North Carolina's defense also isn't great, and
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: Duke's offense is arguably the most talented in the country.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: I don't see Carolina get many stops, so it's a
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: really high total for a final four game. You know,
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: you gotta have a lot go right, and you can't
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: have the teams get tight and start to play slow late,
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: which can happen. But I would also lean over. I
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: would also lean taking the points of Carolina. I haven't
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: played anything yet, but I also think it's a great
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: live trading game. Should be runs on both sides. If
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: you want to wait to get you know, Carolina with
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: a better number or Duke with a better number, I
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: think you will be able to do so during the
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: course of the game. And if you want to get
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: both sides, you know, say Duke get a pick in
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: Carolina plus six or seven and try to middle it,
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: I think there'll be a good chance you have that
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: opportunity as well. But I think this game really comes
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: down to the wire and it should be one of
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: the most exciting games of the tournam because I don't
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: think either defense can stop the other offense. Throughout this
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: whole tournament run, Duke has not faced a good three
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: point shooting team. Arkansas was outside the top three hundred,
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech has been streaky all season long. Obviously Michigan
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: State hasn't been good, and then obviously Folks and that
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: didn't take a high number of threes. North Carolina can
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: knock it down from behind the arc their thirty eight
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: percent on the season, they made a ton of threes
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: against Duke in both meetings, So it's it's really troublesome
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: here for Duke, and I think we're gonna see their
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: defense start to aggress back to like what like what stuck?
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: He said, back to the a C C tournament against
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech. Consensus here seems to be leaning towards Villanova
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: if you can get to five, but you still kind
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: of like it a four and a half. Lean towards
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: the over in Duke u n C. We're just happy
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: to get a final four that has high profile teams
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: and hopefully get good games and a good final Stucky.
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: B J Action Network College basketball experts. Thank you for
• 27:00
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• 27:03
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