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The Most Dangerous Places on Earth to Live Right Now · The Infographics Show Podcast

• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the debate today. We're trying to dive a
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  Speaker 1: bit deeper, you know, move beyond infographics to really unpack
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  Speaker 1: the profound complexity shaping global stability in twenty twenty five.
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  Speaker 1: So the core question we're grappling with is this is
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  Speaker 1: the main driver of escalating global instability well, the evolving
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  Speaker 1: nature of terrorism and its complex connections, or is it
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  Speaker 1: more about the increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters
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  Speaker 1: and the internal displacement that follows. Right I'm going to
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  Speaker 1: argue that it's the deliberate evolving threat of terrorism, especially
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  Speaker 1: how it links up with organized crime, that's the more
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  Speaker 1: active and frankly, it's strategically complex force messing with global
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  Speaker 1: order right now.
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  Speaker 2: And I'll be offering a well, a contrasting view. I'm
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  Speaker 2: asserting that the overwhelming skis and the sort of compounding
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  Speaker 2: effects of climate driven natural disasters and the mass internal
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  Speaker 2: displacement that results actually represent a more fundamental and widespread
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  Speaker 2: challenge to human well being and global stability overall.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, so my analysis, it really reveals that global stability
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  Speaker 1: is predominantly challenged by this evolving nature of terrorism. What's
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  Speaker 1: really striking isn't just you know the rise in terrorism deaths,
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  Speaker 1: but how much more concentrated and lethal attacks have become so.
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  Speaker 1: In twenty twenty three, for instance, we saw a pretty
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  Speaker 1: significant twenty two percent jump in deaths. That's the highest
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  Speaker 1: level since twenty seventeen, even though the actual number of
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  Speaker 1: incidents dropped, which points to a shift towards more impactful,
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  Speaker 1: deadlier strikes. The average was about two point five deaths
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  Speaker 1: per attack last year, up from one point six and
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  Speaker 1: twenty twenty two. And the epicenter it's clearly shifted. It's
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  Speaker 1: moved from the Middle East in North Africa to Sub
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  Speaker 1: Saharan Africa, especially the Sahel region. That area now accounts
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  Speaker 1: for almost half of all terrorism deaths globally. And crucially,
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  Speaker 1: there's this strong and i'd say deepening correlation between organized
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  Speaker 1: crime and terrorism. It's most obvious in the Sahel groups
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  Speaker 1: like j and i AM that's al Qaeda's affiliate there,
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  Speaker 1: and the Islamic State. They're exploiting illicit economies, things like
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  Speaker 1: cattle rustling, artisanal gold mining, drug trafficking, kidnapping for ransom.
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  Speaker 1: This isn't just about funding, you know, It's really about
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  Speaker 1: establishing territorial control, replacing the state kidnapping incidents in the Sahel,
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  Speaker 1: for example, they surged from just seventy eight in twenty
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  Speaker 1: seventeen to over one thousand and twenty twenty three. So
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  Speaker 1: while terrorism might kill fewer people at absolute numbers than say,
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  Speaker 1: other forms of violence, its unique threat lies in its
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  Speaker 1: profound psychological and social impact. The October seventh attack showed
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  Speaker 1: this starkly. They dramatically increased public fear and just wiped
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  Speaker 1: on support for peace processes. It's targeted psychological warfare, often
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  Speaker 1: thriving in conflict zones, and it actively erodes societal cohesion
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  Speaker 1: and the legitimacy of the state.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, I come at this from a different perspective. While
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  Speaker 2: the lethality of terrorism is undeniably a serious concern, I
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  Speaker 2: really believe the more pervasive and frankly escalating threat to
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  Speaker 2: global stability stems from the sheer scale of natural disasters
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  Speaker 2: and internal displacement. My research it strongly suggests that extreme
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  Speaker 2: weather events aren't just a top immediate risk for twenty
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  Speaker 2: twenty five, but they're also seen as a dominant long
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  Speaker 2: term risk over the next decade, right alongside things like
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  Speaker 2: biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse. The data indicates that climate
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  Speaker 2: change is making these billion dollar disasters far more frequent.
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  Speaker 2: It's gotten to the point where the time between such
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  Speaker 2: events has shrunk to less than two weeks in twenty
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  Speaker 2: twenty four. That's a well a start contrast to nearly
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  Speaker 2: two months back in nineteen eighty one.
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  Speaker 1: That's a dramatic change, it.
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  Speaker 2: Is, and consider the immense scale of these humanitarian crises.
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  Speaker 2: You've got six million internally displaced people in Sudan, one
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  Speaker 2: point two millions still displaced in Pakistan just from the
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  Speaker 2: twenty twenty two floods, and many of those were forced
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  Speaker 2: to flee again in twenty twenty three. The overwhelming majority
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  Speaker 2: of forcibly displaced people, they stay within their home countries,
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  Speaker 2: often for years. It becomes this sort of invisible crisis,
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  Speaker 2: and this puts just immense strain on national resources, on development,
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  Speaker 2: even in states that seem relatively stable. What's more, existing
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  Speaker 2: conflicts can profoundly increase vulnerability to disaster displacement. The Derna
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  Speaker 2: floods in Libya tragically exemplified this. You had decades of
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  Speaker 2: underfunded infrastructure, made much worse by the civil war, and
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  Speaker 2: that contributed directly to the catastrophic dam bursts that displace thousands.
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  Speaker 2: This is a powerful illustration I think of how environmental
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  Speaker 2: and conflict factors intertwine to create a systemic breakdown. It
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  Speaker 2: impacts human well being on an unparalleled scale, and I
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  Speaker 2: believe poses a more fundamental challenge to global stability.
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  Speaker 1: That's a compelling argument about the scale, definitely, and the
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  Speaker 1: Derna example really does highlight that devastating impact. However, I
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  Speaker 1: still maintain the terrorism represents a more deliberate and active
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  Speaker 1: form of destabilization. My observation is that groups like JANM
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  Speaker 1: they aren't just reacting to environmental factors. They are actively
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  Speaker 1: expanding territorial control. They are co opting illicit economies like
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  Speaker 1: gold mining in places like Burkina Fosso, and this has
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  Speaker 1: led to that nation becoming the country with the highest
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  Speaker 1: impact from terrorism for the first time in twenty twenty three,
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  Speaker 1: with death jumping by sixty eight percent. This calculated erosion
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  Speaker 1: of governance, especially in already fragile states, it creates a deeper,
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  Speaker 1: more intractable kind of instabile dissenter. How does a state
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  Speaker 1: effectively respond to these massive environmental events you've highlighted When
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  Speaker 1: it's very governing capacity has been actively dismantled by deliberate
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  Speaker 1: terrorist action, I mean, creating the very vacuum in which
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  Speaker 1: these groups thrive.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a critical question, and I absolutely agree that
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  Speaker 2: terrorism actively undermines governance. But I'm just not convinced that
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  Speaker 2: deliberate destabilization by terrorist groups is the primary driver. When
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  Speaker 2: you're faced with the sheer volume of people affected by
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  Speaker 2: natural disasters, that volume just far outweighs those directly impacted
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  Speaker 2: by terrorism. Even if, yes, the latter is more deliberate.
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  Speaker 2: Consider that floods and storms, they continue to cause the
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  Speaker 2: most displacements globally. In Africa alone, cyclone Freddy triggered one
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  Speaker 2: point four million movements across six countries in twenty twenty three,
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  Speaker 2: just one event. This kind of mass displacement creates chronic
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  Speaker 2: humanitarian crises, infrastructural damage that strains even relatively stable states,
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  Speaker 2: sometimes to their breaking point. My perspective is that these
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  Speaker 2: extreme weather events they amplify other risks. They create a
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  Speaker 2: cascading effect that even you know, really effective counter terrorism
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  Speaker 2: efforts can't fully mitigate. How can you implement robust counter
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  Speaker 2: terrorism strategies when entire regions are facing repeated climate shocks
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  Speaker 2: like Pakistan experiencing repeated floods year after year, or Afghanistan
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  Speaker 2: grappling with earthquakes and prolonged droughts. The systemic nature of
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  Speaker 2: climate driven instability creating these massive, often invisible, internally displaced populations.
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  Speaker 2: It requires a level of resource allocation and global cooperation
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  Speaker 2: that right now dwarfs the response to terrorism.
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  Speaker 1: I see the challenge you're posing regarding the overwhelming nature
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  Speaker 1: of climate shocks, and you're absolutely right they demand massive resources. However,
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  Speaker 1: let me offer a slightly different perspective on that interconnectedness
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  Speaker 1: you mentioned. Position is that the vulnerabilities that natural disasters
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  Speaker 1: exploit are often exacerbated or maybe even created by pre
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  Speaker 1: existing conflicts and a lack of effective governance, conditions that
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  Speaker 1: terrorism actively exploits and perpetuates. What I've observed is that
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  Speaker 1: ninety eight percent of terrorism deaths in twenty twenty three
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  Speaker 1: occurring countries already experiencing some level of conflict. Right, the
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  Speaker 1: overlap is clear, exactly, and in non OECD countries, factors
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  Speaker 1: like political terror, lower respect for human rights, corruption, these
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  Speaker 1: things are significantly correlated with terrorism. Take the collapse of
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  Speaker 1: the twenty fifteen Molli Peace Agreement after UN forces withdrew
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  Speaker 1: it directly contributed to intensified fighting and one hundred and
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  Speaker 1: fifty two thousand conflict displacements just in twenty twenty three. So,
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  Speaker 1: while you emphasize the sheer scale of climate shocks, I
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  Speaker 1: would argue that the deliberate breakdown of governance by groups
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  Speaker 1: like J and M often precedes and amplifies that scale.
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  Speaker 1: It turns what might be an unfortunate natural event into
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  Speaker 1: a catastrophic systemic failure, precisely because it makes populations far
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  Speaker 1: more susceptible to all forms of instability.
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  Speaker 2: I understand your argument about how terrorism exploits and certainly
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  Speaker 2: worsens existing vulnerabilities, and the statistics you cite on conflict
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  Speaker 2: and terrorism deaths are well, they're certainly impactful. However, I
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  Speaker 2: have to respectfully push back on the idea that terrorism
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  Speaker 2: is the primary driver, especially when we look at the
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  Speaker 2: longer term outlook. My assessment, looking at global risks up
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  Speaker 2: to twenty thirty five, it's just dominated by environmental factors.
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  Speaker 2: Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, critical changes to earth systems. These
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  Speaker 2: aren't just exacerbating factors anymore. They are becoming primary drivers.
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  Speaker 2: Of societal upheaval on a truly global scale. The Derna floods,
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  Speaker 2: again are such as stark illustration. Yes, years of conflict,
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  Speaker 2: weakened infrastructure, no question, but the ultimate catastrophic impact was
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  Speaker 2: a natural disaster of such force it displaced tens of thousands.
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  Speaker 2: Instantly advocate, what resilience does the state we truly have
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  Speaker 2: against a climate shock of that magnitude, even with robust governance,
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  Speaker 2: when the sheer force of the event just overwhelms any
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  Speaker 2: existing system. The systemic nature of climate driven instability creating
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  Speaker 2: these massive, often invisible, internally displaced populations, it just presents
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  Speaker 2: a more intractable long term challenge. And look, if you're
• 10:22
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• 10:24
  Speaker 2: five star rating. It really helps others find the show okay.
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  Speaker 2: While my position remains that the evolving interconnected threat of terrorism,
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  Speaker 2: especially it's nexus with organized crime and its profound psychological impact,
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  Speaker 2: represents a primary active destabilizer. Terrorism deliberately seeks to fracture governance,
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  Speaker 2: to break down social cohesion, often leveraging pre existing conflicts.
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  Speaker 2: That makes it a conscious and strategic threat to the
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  Speaker 2: international system. The deliberate actions of these groups to exploit
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  Speaker 2: and create chaos, which we see so vividly in the Sahel.
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  Speaker 2: I believe we demand our focused attention as the most
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  Speaker 2: dynamic and immediate challenge to stability, and I maintain that
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  Speaker 2: the escalating and compounding crisis of natural disasters and the
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  Speaker 2: resulting internal displacement amplified by climate change, constitutes a more
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  Speaker 2: fundamental and pervasive threat to global stability and human well being.
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  Speaker 2: These broad scale environmental shifts, they just overwhelm existing systems,
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  Speaker 2: They create widespread and enduring vulnerability, and they often go
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  Speaker 2: unaddressed because of their sheer scale. And as I mentioned,
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  Speaker 2: the invisibility of the internally displaced, the systemic nature of
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  Speaker 2: these climate risks I feel present a more intractable long
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  Speaker 2: term foundational challenge.
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  Speaker 1: Right, So, both of us clearly agree that global stability
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  Speaker 1: is facing well immense pressure for multiple directions, and that
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  Speaker 1: these issues are deeply interconnected. They often feed into one
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  Speaker 1: another in really complex ways. Absolutely, and while we approach
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  Speaker 1: the question of the primary driver from different vantage points,
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  Speaker 1: I think the depth of these challenges really underscores the
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  Speaker 1: value of considering multiple perspectives. We encourage you to reflect
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  Speaker 1: on these multifaceted global risks, and the profound impacts they
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  Speaker 1: have on our world. There's certainly more to explore