Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 443 - 1/29/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:0154321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
- 0:14welcome to episode 443 of the All.
- 0:18Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 0:22I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
- 0:30Happy Thirsty Thursday, our work week.
- 0:33Is coming to an end but we got today, we got tomorrow and then
- 0:36we. Have a really weird bye week.
- 0:38There's no football. This weekend, although.
- 0:40I will mention. To you guys, my my.
- 0:42Sister-in-law who recently moved.
- 0:44From California to New Hampshire.
- 0:46Texted me and my wife. Today and said, do you?
- 0:48Guys want to go to the Patriots. Send off rally on Sunday and I'm
- 0:52like. OK, maybe let me look into it.
- 0:55Tickets are free show up. There like 9:00 AM, it's about
- 0:58an hour from my house. We're going to hear the
- 1:00dropkick. Murphy's Maybe Cardi B will be
- 1:02there. There's some giveaways you're.
- 1:04Going to hear Mike Vrabel and Drake May talk.
- 1:06So that's what I'm going to be doing on Sunday morning, going
- 1:09to Patriots Place and again. Tickets for free.
- 1:12I'll be there, and you might be surprised because I'm a new.
- 1:15Englander I've seen. 6 championships but I've never.
- 1:18Been to a send off rally. I've been to 1 Super Bowl
- 1:22celebration. I think that was man, when was
- 1:24that, I think. It was maybe back in 2014 but
- 1:28I've never done a send off. So on Sunday, I'll be doing that
- 1:31and, of course, sweating some college basketball.
- 1:34But we do have a lot to get to on today's podcast, guys.
- 1:37I do have a three pack of sweats for.
- 1:38You in college basketball? I know it's been rough out
- 1:41there. The dogs ain't barking for us
- 1:42recently so. I'm going to go back to the old.
- 1:44Faithful money lining, some short favorites and some obscure
- 1:48sharp line moves. SO3 pack in college hoops.
- 1:51Going to try to go 2IN1. Eek out a winning night.
- 1:54I want to mention as well it is a Thursday.
- 1:56That means you have the rhythm rundown.
- 1:58Tonight, so 6. PM Eastern Time myself, my buddy
- 2:01Kate Harper. We're going to go through the
- 2:02Super Bowl. You might know where.
- 2:04I'm going with this one. Still, super contrarian rhythm
- 2:07edges here to take the Patriots. And the points I'm going to wait
- 2:10out for A5, but if I can't get it, I'll go 4 1/2.
- 2:12We're going to talk about the game.
- 2:15Also talk about the total, I did notice I believe a couple of
- 2:18shops dipped down a little bit. I want to say some.
- 2:21Shops are at 46 and. Just got down to 45 1/2 so maybe
- 2:24some under money coming in here. But really, we're.
- 2:27Going to talk about Super Bowl prop betting as well as some
- 2:30player props here for the big. Game so hope.
- 2:32To see everyone tonight, remember every Thursday night,
- 2:356:00 PM Eastern Time stream live on Twitter.
- 2:37Just going to at Josh under score insights.
- 2:39That's my Twitter handle. Give me a follow if you don't
- 2:41already. And boom, right at 6:00 PM we'll
- 2:43be breaking on all the games. I'm also going to join my buddy
- 2:46Patrick Maher tonight at 9:00 PM Eastern Time to do my weekly hit
- 2:50on Mad Dog Radio. Be some live tonight.
- 2:53Looking forward to that on SiriusXM.
- 2:55Now I buried the lead a little. Bit guys, but man, we're snake
- 2:57bit. It's been rough the last two
- 2:59nights. O and 3 -, 3 units.
- 3:02So the really frustrating part number one is not winning these
- 3:05games, but #2 it's that. We're kind of on the right side.
- 3:09Again I. Feel like we're beating these
- 3:11closing lines and just getting no.
- 3:13Luck in our in our direction. I'll give you a perfect example.
- 3:16How about Xavier last night? Xavier at.
- 3:19Seton Hall got +6. And a half.
- 3:21They closed at +5 and 1/2. They're up by 11 points at
- 3:25halftime. Then they get absolutely
- 3:27destroyed. I think they.
- 3:28Lost by like 30 points in the in the second-half.
- 3:31End up losing that game by like 20.
- 3:33So again, you get a 6 1/2, they close 5 1/2.
- 3:36Again, we did our part just an absolute.
- 3:38No show in the second-half from Xavier, which was frustrating.
- 3:42Baylor. What a bunch of.
- 3:44Bums, the Baylor Bears are getting a Four.
- 3:46They close 3 1/2. They lose by 10.
- 3:48So that was annoying. And then, of course, just to
- 3:51make matters worse. Another CLV.
- 3:53Play with DePaul because DePaul got a four DePaul closed at 3
- 4:001/2 or. Even 3.
- 4:01So again, just like Xavier DePaul, great.
- 4:04CLV they lose by 9 points and again they were down by quite a
- 4:08bit. They.
- 4:09Made a little bit of. A comeback there.
- 4:11There's kind of right on the number.
- 4:12But those are two CLV. Plays that are both losers.
- 4:16And if you get into debates? On Twitter, a lot of people who
- 4:19you know understand betting, they understand the.
- 4:21Importance of CLV to me. Closing line value what it?
- 4:24Actually is? Is it just?
- 4:25Comparing. The bet that you got.
- 4:27Versus the closing line? But a lot of people are just
- 4:30results based. So you know for example, like
- 4:33let's say you had laid. Me give an example that Seton
- 4:38Hall game. Let's say you laid. -6 1/2 with
- 4:41Seton Hall and they closed 5 1/2 but.
- 4:43Seton Hall wins and covers. Did you make a good bet?
- 4:46I would argue you got lucky there because again, the market
- 4:49told you that. You're 6 1/2.
- 4:50Was a bad number because it closed at 5:00.
- 4:53And 1/2. A lot of people again only care
- 4:55about the the results, but I think if you're a long.
- 4:58Term winning sport or a sports? Better just in general, who
- 5:00takes it seriously? Beating closing lines.
- 5:03Is the mark of someone who's reading the market correctly.
- 5:05Now you know there's no participation trophy, so you get
- 5:08COV. It doesn't guarantee a winner,
- 5:10but I think. It just tells you that you know
- 5:13luck is a part of. Sports betting brakes going your
- 5:16way or brakes not going your way We can't control obviously what
- 5:19happens on. The field.
- 5:20The court. The ice, the diamond, whatever.
- 5:22But if you consistently get. Better numbers.
- 5:24That's the mark of, again, a better who?
- 5:27Is is in the long? Term.
- 5:28Reading the market correctly. So you're not going to get wins
- 5:31from CLV. There's no, there's no sports
- 5:34book that's going to say, hey, oh, you got a, you know, a 6 1/2
- 5:37with Xavier. They closed. 5 1/2 they.
- 5:38Lost, but here I'll give you a third of a unit for being the
- 5:41closing line, no. That that is not a thing, but I
- 5:43think it just tells. You that you know CLV is what
- 5:47you can do as. The better to put yourself in
- 5:48the best position, but anything can happen on the field and a
- 5:51lot of times you know it. To me CLV is the mark of a
- 5:55winning better, but luck is sometimes with you or against.
- 5:59You so if you're beating closing lines and losing.
- 6:01Which is what's been. Happening the last couple days,
- 6:04that tells me that we're doing our part, we're reading the
- 6:06market right. We're just getting some bad
- 6:09luck. So we're going to see.
- 6:10If we can turn it around here tonight and as I mentioned, you
- 6:13know, I don't know how many more of these dogs I can bet where
- 6:16you know you, you get a you know what was it with BYU the other
- 6:19night, you get A2 or A1, they close minus.
- 6:22One and you lose by. By three, whatever that was or,
- 6:26you know, the previous night, they're looking at don't even
- 6:28remind me. With who was it?
- 6:30Oklahoma and Grand Canyon, let's see if we can just get some of
- 6:33these favorites to come through and win for us on the short
- 6:35money line prices with. That being said, 3 college plays
- 6:38tonight but I also have an NBA futures bet for you.
- 6:41I told you the other day. About how I got down on Chet
- 6:44Holmgren, Defensive Player of the Year plus 1/25.
- 6:47Well, I got another one for you. So is it Rookie of the Year?
- 6:50Is it 6 man? Is it most improved?
- 6:53Is it the coach of the year? Stay tuned.
- 6:55Because we got a good opportunity to hopefully cash
- 6:58with this, this ticket that. I was waiting.
- 7:01To get a little plus money and we can get it at Even money.
- 7:04So I'll tell you guys that bet at the end of the podcast.
- 7:08With that being said. I'm annoyed and frustrated by
- 7:10college hoops last couple days. So again, that when you're
- 7:14sometimes when you're betting and you know you're, you're
- 7:17grinding, you're beating. Closing.
- 7:18Lines and you're not getting breaks.
- 7:19It's like, screw this, I need a night off or I'm going to go to
- 7:22a different sport. I'm one of those people.
- 7:23Who just gets more annoyed? Which means I want to.
- 7:26Get more dialed in and, you know, challenge the market and
- 7:29beat the market. So even though college hoops has
- 7:31been just a brutal wasteland last two nights, we're going to
- 7:35see if we can get some winners here for tonight, so.
- 7:37That being said, 3 plays, first one on the board for me.
- 7:40Let's look. At an 8:00 PM Eastern Time
- 7:42matchup I believe is on ESPN. 2 and it is.
- 7:46Florida Atlantic visiting Memphis.
- 7:49Let's set the stage talk. Splits line, move system
- 7:51matches. And I'll give you my play for
- 7:52this one. Now FAU comes in 14.
- 7:55And seven on the year just saw their five game win streak come
- 7:58to an end. However, they lost to South
- 7:59Florida 89 to 75. Did not cover as a 5 1/2 point
- 8:03Rd. dog. You know Memphis 9 and. 10 on
- 8:06the year they've lost two in a row.
- 8:08Just lost to Wichita State. 74 to 59 did not cover as a 3 1/2
- 8:12point Rd. dog so. What we've seen across the
- 8:14market, this game open with Memphis listed as a one.
- 8:17And a half point home favorite. And it's very interesting here
- 8:20because look at the. Records Memphis is 9 and 10
- 8:23below 500. Florida Atlantic is 14 and 7.
- 8:26Great win. Loss record above 500.
- 8:28But this game opened with. Memphis being favored which?
- 8:31Again, you got to apply homecourt, but if I were to just
- 8:34ask you who should be favored? Florida Atlantic, or.
- 8:37Memphis, you would think. FAU.
- 8:38Far better record, right? Well, even with a.
- 8:41Homecourt here we have Memphis opening as the favorite and.
- 8:44Really. What's interesting too is that
- 8:47it's pretty much 5050. Public doesn't know.
- 8:49What to do? They respect Memphis, even
- 8:50though they're having it down here because it's a short line
- 8:52on a favorite. But also FA.
- 8:54U's got the better record. So what do you do?
- 8:56Publix pretty much split doesn't know what to do.
- 8:58However, we have. Seen this line creep up?
- 9:01Toward Memphis. Memphis went from -1 1/2 juiced
- 9:05up -115 we've actually. Seen a couple shops.
- 9:08Now get up to Memphis at -2 I'm seeing a couple minus twos out
- 9:14there and I did see a 2 1/2 earlier so.
- 9:16All the one and a halfs like think of it this way.
- 9:19Lines never gotten down to. One or a pick or hop the fence
- 9:21and gone to. FAU it's only shown liability.
- 9:24On the Memphis side, Juiced up -1 1/2 -, 115 and again some
- 9:28books at 2:00. Now looking at the split.
- 9:31Here at DraftKings, only 52% of spread bets, but 80% of spread
- 9:37dollars on Memphis. So once again, public doesn't
- 9:39know what to do. What do we always talk about?
- 9:415050 line shouldn't move at all, yet the line did.
- 9:43Go to Memphis. Tells me smart money here is on
- 9:45the Tigers. You look at.
- 9:49In this spot with. With DK we also have.
- 9:52A money line opportunity. If you look right now.
- 9:55At the splits, which by the way, Ken Palm has Memphis winning by
- 9:59375 to 70. 2 So I do. Want to go money line protect
- 10:03myself a little bit. I was able to find Memphis on
- 10:05the money line at -120. Five.
- 10:07That's available at Caesar's. But shop around, because a bunch
- 10:10of other books are -130 or -135. But again, win by 1.
- 10:15We got to loot, we got to win our bet, not lose a -. 1 1/2 or
- 10:18-2 but only 55% of money line bets, but 70% of money line
- 10:23dollars are on the Memphis. Tigers also, you look at just
- 10:27the ultimate buy low, sell high. We have Memphis.
- 10:30With a losing record, who's lost two straight versus FAU?
- 10:33The winning. Record who just had a 5 game win
- 10:36streak that just came to an end. So we're kind of buying low on a
- 10:39favorite with a losing record and selling high on a dog with a
- 10:41winning record. Memphis going to bank on their
- 10:44defense. They rank pretty efficiently and
- 10:46are pretty high there in terms of their defensive efficiency,
- 10:4935th in the country versus 98th for FAU.
- 10:52The Tigers also hold their opponents to a better effective.
- 10:54Field goal. Percentage 55th versus 115th and
- 10:58they force more turnovers, 58th versus 175th and then home Rd.
- 11:02You know Memphis. Is only 9 and 10 on the year.
- 11:04But there are 8 and two at home but.
- 11:06Bad on the road, but. Pretty good at home.
- 11:08They're home tonight, FAU. 14 and 7 great record.
- 11:11But they're just three and five on the road.
- 11:13So it seems kind of fishy. FAU is the better team, right?
- 11:15Well. Their one loss record says that
- 11:17they're the better team, but the markets moving toward Memphis.
- 11:20Ken Palms got them by three Short money line price -125 -
- 11:24130 So I played the Memphis Tigers money line -125 win the
- 11:29damn game. Next play for you 9:00 Eastern
- 11:33Time Let's. Look at a match up.
- 11:35Between Idaho and Northern Colorado now going into it, we
- 11:38got Idaho 12 and 8 on the year just had their two game win
- 11:41streak however come to an end. They lost to Portland State
- 11:446966, losing outright as a 1 1/2 point home favorite on.
- 11:48The other hand, Northern Colorado. 11 and 10 on the year
- 11:51they have dropped five straight and just came up short against
- 11:54Northern Arizona 81 to 77 they lost as a six point Rd. favorite
- 11:59so we've. Seen across the board here.
- 12:01Well, this came open with Northern Colorado listed as a 2.
- 12:04And a half point home favorite. And Sharps very quietly have
- 12:08said, you know what, let's take the home team.
- 12:10That's a pretty good, good number there because.
- 12:12If you look at the juice, we've seen Northern Colorado.
- 12:16Open -2 1/2 -, 110 and now they're -2 1/2 -, 115 -, 120 and
- 12:22actually see Caesar's at -3 and Ballybet Ryan and Mass is
- 12:27actually -3 1/2. So similar to that Memphis.
- 12:29Game all movement. Liability has been on this home
- 12:32favorite. And that's notable because this
- 12:34is a very. Low bet game.
- 12:36It's a late night 9:00. It's kind of overlooked.
- 12:38Again. Who woke up on a thirsty
- 12:40Thursday and said I got a bet? Idaho and Northern Colorado.
- 12:44So if you look at the splits. 79% of spread bets, 95% of
- 12:49spread dollars on Northern Colorado, which you would say.
- 12:52OK, that's Pro and Joe? Right.
- 12:54Well, technically, by the definition of the.
- 12:56Percentages, yeah, that's, that's a.
- 12:57Percentage, majority of bets and dollars.
- 13:00But because it's a low back game.
- 13:01That 79% spread bets. It isn't quite public to me.
- 13:05It would kind of. Really mean that it's coming
- 13:07from sharper betters who have targeted this game specifically.
- 13:11Ken Palm does have Northern. Colorado winning by three.
- 13:14He does have the Bears ranked a little bit higher, 187th versus
- 13:17190th. I went money line here again,
- 13:20protecting myself off chance. Northern Colorado wins by one or
- 13:23two. I would lose a 2.
- 13:25And 1/2 or three. So I was able to get northern.
- 13:27Colorado on the money line at -150 shop around because that's
- 13:32the score. Formerly ESPN bet and that's the
- 13:34best price. I'm looking at some other books,
- 13:36Ramat in Massachusetts that are like -160 even -170 so
- 13:40absolutely have those multiple outs.
- 13:42Try to get the best number there.
- 13:44But we do have. I don't know if I just mentioned
- 13:47this, but Ken Palm has a winning Yeah by three.
- 13:49We do have a good split at DraftKings.
- 13:52Northern Colorado's only getting. 40% of money line bets,
- 13:55but 89% of money line dollars, so good split there in favor of
- 14:00a straight up win by the Bears. Northern Colorado has the better
- 14:03offensive efficiency, 131st in the country versus 167th for
- 14:07Idaho. Better effective field goal
- 14:09percentage, 44th versus 155th, better three-point shooting,
- 14:14102nd versus 161st and better free throw shooting 74th versus
- 14:19145th. Northern Colorado, by the way,
- 14:21five and three at home altitude. Advantage.
- 14:24Hopefully Idaho's 4. And five on the road.
- 14:27So we've seen this line move toward Northern Colorado.
- 14:29We got some good splits. We also have a little bit of
- 14:32fishy play here. Because an 11 and 10 team isn't.
- 14:35Quite as good as a. 12 and eight team but open as a favorite and
- 14:38become more of a favorite. We do have rhythm.
- 14:40With Northern Colorado -2.8 so I'll take that.
- 14:44You know, basically it's, you know not it's not an edge on.
- 14:46The 2 1/2 you. Could round up to three, but it
- 14:49just tells me that we do have rhythm kind of backing up the
- 14:52fact that Northern Colorado hopefully should win this game.
- 14:55So you add it all up here guys. I got no Co on the money line
- 14:58-150 but again, shop around. That's at the score.
- 15:01Other books are a little bit more expensive.
- 15:04Last bed of the night. 10:00 Eastern Time, UC Davis visiting
- 15:08Cal State Northridge. UC Davis comes in 12.
- 15:11And eight. They've won three of their last
- 15:13four. Just took down UC Riverside 74
- 15:16to 60. 6 but did not cover as a 9 1/2 point home.
- 15:20Favorite Meanwhile, Cal State Northridge 11 and 10.
- 15:23They have lost three of their last four, however.
- 15:25Just got rolled by Hawaii 8968. Didn't cover as a 10 1/2 point
- 15:30Rd. dog. So let me see across the market
- 15:32here. Well, this game open with Cal
- 15:34State Northridge listed as a. 1 1/2 point home favorite.
- 15:37And the public is saying the wrong team is favored.
- 15:40UC Davis better record 1/3 of their last four.
- 15:43Cal State lost three of their last four.
- 15:45So just take the hot team, right?
- 15:47Well, you're getting around. 55% of spread bets on UC Davis.
- 15:52But the line isn't down to a pick em.
- 15:53Or hop in the fence to UC Davis -1 - 2.
- 15:57No, this line's gone. Further toward Cal State.
- 15:59Northridge So Cal State Northridge.
- 16:01Went from -1 1/2 now up to -2 1/2.
- 16:06And if you look at. Some of the juice here.
- 16:10At least one book I'm seeing. Bet MGM is -2 and half -115.
- 16:13So all movement liability. Has been in favor of Cal State
- 16:16Northridge now. This would technically.
- 16:19Be a reverse line move. Because majority of tickets 54%.
- 16:23To be exact, are on UC Davis. Yet the line moved not in favor
- 16:27of the Aggies, but in favor of Northridge.
- 16:29I went money line here. I got Cal State Northridge at
- 16:32-125 that was at the. Score a little bit earlier.
- 16:36Today looks like your best price now is around -1. 40 some books.
- 16:40Are as high as -150. So on the one hand, this is
- 16:42good. The price keeps going up.
- 16:45Tells me more sharp betters are hitting Cal State Northridge,
- 16:48but not great if you haven't bet it yet.
- 16:49But still -140. Not a terrible money line price.
- 16:53You look at these splits at DK the Matadors, 53% of money line
- 16:57bets, but 85% of money line dollars.
- 17:00So good low bets, higher dollar split.
- 17:02Cal State Northridge better offensive rebound percentage
- 17:05128th versus 300 and 15th. For UC Davis and they do a
- 17:10better job of limiting. Offensive rebounds to their
- 17:12opponents, 18th in the country versus 100 and 94th now Cal
- 17:17State. Northridge.
- 17:18They're 11. And 10 on the year.
- 17:19But they're 8. And one at home.
- 17:21So hopefully they play. Well, on their homecourt tonight
- 17:23and UC Davis, who's 12 and 8, they're just three and five on
- 17:27the road. Lastly, I did notice 2
- 17:30recommended plays on Cal State Northridge.
- 17:33Rhythm has Cal State around -3.1.
- 17:36What I really liked is a Green Star smart signal.
- 17:39Recommended play on the Cal State Northridge money line.
- 17:43It's always important when you're looking at a spread sport
- 17:45like college basketball, especially if it's a lower.
- 17:48Number always look at the. Money line, don't just dismiss
- 17:50the money line because, you know, again, doesn't mean much
- 17:53of the team's favored by 10 or more because that's a huge
- 17:56number, you know -700 + 1000, whatever the case may be.
- 18:00But it is nice to see Rhythm recommending that money line
- 18:03play on CS Northridge. So I got Cal State Northridge,
- 18:06the matadors at. -125 again, you're looking at around -140
- 18:10right now. But between Cal State
- 18:12Northridge. Northern Colorado and Memphis,
- 18:15dear. God.
- 18:16Can we get 2 out of these 3 eek out a winning night and I think
- 18:20we deserve it after beating closing lines and getting bad
- 18:22beaded left and right. It's just been really annoying
- 18:25the last couple nights. Let's.
- 18:27Now go to the NBA because I hinted to you guys, I think.
- 18:31It was yesterday, maybe the day before.
- 18:33I'm like. OK, we got we got our guy Chet.
- 18:35Holmgren plus 1/25 for Defensive Player of the Year.
- 18:40But there was one more award that I was looking at and the
- 18:42award is coach. Of the year now I.
- 18:44Told you guys this. Before, but I'm lucky enough to
- 18:47get these bet MGM PR emails well that we're basically the their
- 18:52PR team sends out a, you know, a.
- 18:55List of awards. And different bets and big games
- 18:58and I can get the splits which are the bets and dollars.
- 19:01And I'm always interested in, you know, looking at the
- 19:04numbers, how they evolve, comparing bets to dollars and
- 19:08then figuring out if. There's a sharp play out.
- 19:10There. So what I landed?
- 19:12On for coach of the. Year is JB Bickerstaff.
- 19:16Now you might be like, OK, JB Bickerstaff who?
- 19:18The hell does he even coach? He coaches the Detroit Pistons.
- 19:23Detroit basketball First thing jumped out to me.
- 19:27Is the BET split in favor of JB Bickerstaff?
- 19:31Right now at Bet MGM, he's getting 15. .2.
- 19:33Percent of the tickets and 16.9% of the handle.
- 19:38That handle nearly 17% is by far the most of any coach, so that's
- 19:43important to me. Low bets, higher dollars, heavy
- 19:45handle on bicker staff. The angle for bicker staff is
- 19:51expectations and and really exceeding them to a high degree.
- 19:55Now, if you haven't been paying attention, I don't blame you
- 19:57because NBA to me is one of the most frustrating sports.
- 20:00That's why I really don't bet a lot of NBA, whether it's, you
- 20:02know, load management guys being ruled out.
- 20:05It's very unpredictable and. If you're a winning NBA.
- 20:08Better. I'm not talking props.
- 20:09I think there is a. An.
- 20:10Opportunity to be a winning. Better if you're betting props,
- 20:12but I'm talking straight sides and totals.
- 20:15It's very difficult. I I, I I.
- 20:18Basically don't know many. People at all, and I've I got a
- 20:20lot of friends in the industry, but I don't know very many at
- 20:23all who consistently win betting NBA sides in totals.
- 20:27But anyway, if you've noticed. The standings out.
- 20:31West we have OK C. 38 and 10, you know, Spurs, Nuggets,
- 20:35Rockets, Lakers, T Wolves. All well about 500.
- 20:39But in the East, it's not the Knicks.
- 20:42Who? Again, I believe they were one
- 20:44of the favorites, especially with the Celtics losing Jason
- 20:47Tatum, who, by the way, said yesterday that he may sit out.
- 20:50He doesn't want to screw up the chemistry and he wants to be
- 20:52fully healthy, which I think is a good idea for him to sit out
- 20:55and be fully healthy for next year.
- 20:56But anyway, who's in first place in the Eastern?
- 20:59Conference the Detroit Pistons. They're 34 and. 11 That is A7.
- 21:0456 win percentage. The Pistons have the second best
- 21:08record in the NBA, trailing only Oklahoma City.
- 21:12But here's the thing. Oklahoma City, they won it last
- 21:14year. We know they're a good team.
- 21:16They're expected to be a good team.
- 21:17I think when you're winning an award, similar to the reason why
- 21:21I bet on Mike Vrabel to win. NFL Coach of the Year.
- 21:24It's all about, you know, what did what were you expected?
- 21:27What were the? Expectations for your team going
- 21:29into the year and then? How much did you exceed them?
- 21:32Because if you're a really good team like OKC and you have a
- 21:34really good year, you did what you were supposed to do, but.
- 21:37Detroit Big big jump from last year to this year.
- 21:41Last year was kind of their. Breakthrough year they went and
- 21:44remember. They were terrible forever.
- 21:46Like I remember when I was younger back in the day, I
- 21:49remember like, you know, Rasheed Wallace and RIP Hamilton and
- 21:52Chauncey Billups and Ben Wallace, you know, that whole
- 21:56era. But they really were really bad
- 21:58for a long time, stockpiling picks.
- 22:00The draft Kid Cunningham last year, they breakthrough, have a
- 22:03winning year, 44 and 38. They were the sixth seed.
- 22:07Well, this year they're the one seed.
- 22:09They're 34 and 11 if you do a little bit of math.
- 22:12They are on pace for. 62 wins. So if you go from 44 wins to 62
- 22:18wins, that is a huge jump. I think it gives you a.
- 22:21Lot of credit for this 18 win jump in this huge turn around.
- 22:27So Pistons went from the six seed to the one seed. 44 wins to
- 22:33possibly 62 wins. They got a low bet higher our.
- 22:36Split on their head. Coach JB Bicker, staff.
- 22:39And then? Also.
- 22:40Then you got to shop around. So here's what I noticed with JB
- 22:42Bicker staff. He is. -120 at caesar's -115 at
- 22:47FanDuel. -115 at bet MGM minus one O 5 at the score -120 I
- 22:54believe at DraftKings, but at Fanatics JB Bickerstaff is +100.
- 23:00So you risk a unit, you get a unit back.
- 23:02So I just made my second NBA award bet.
- 23:06For JB Bickerstaff head. Coach of the Detroit Pistons to
- 23:10win this award again, plus 100 even money at Fanatics.
- 23:15So let's see if the picker staff can keep rolling, keep winning
- 23:19some games and and cash this award for us.
- 23:21That'll be nice. But that about does it for
- 23:24episode 443 of the All Systems Go Sports.
- 23:27Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 23:29This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up.
- 23:31Always start first by saying thank you.
- 23:33Thank you for listening, thank you for tuning in, thank you for
- 23:35grinding through the UPS and the downs.
- 23:37Couple frustrating nights in a row and you know it kills me
- 23:39more than anybody when we talk about these bets and they don't
- 23:42come through. Or being.
- 23:43Closing lines, getting bad beated, sometimes you're going
- 23:46to have tough. Little little divots.
- 23:47Like that little little snake bit cold streaks.
- 23:51But as always, you know we we get.
- 23:52We wake up every day, we have a new pod, we have a positive
- 23:55attitude, we grind. We.
- 23:56Look for sharp plays. I'm very proud of this of the
- 23:59podcast for for many reasons, but that's one of the main ones.
- 24:02Anyway, if you enjoy the pod, could you please do me a solid?
- 24:05Give it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes.
- 24:08Click the follow button, Rate and Review.
- 24:10Leave a. Comment recommend the pod to a
- 24:12friend. Retweet the pod when I put it
- 24:14out each day. Very easy things you can do to
- 24:16support the ASG pod. Next if you enjoy.
- 24:19The style of sports betting, data-driven, sharp, contrarian
- 24:22betting focusing on numbers, not teams.
- 24:24Learning how to read the market instead of making bets with your
- 24:27heart and your bias, if any of that has kind of turned a light
- 24:32on for you in terms of now an an ability to attack the market, a
- 24:35blueprint to attack the market and maybe you want to learn
- 24:38more. About data-driven betting or you
- 24:40have someone in your life who could use.
- 24:41Some data-driven tips. Or you just want to brush up on
- 24:44Super Bowl betting. You're bidding your time.
- 24:46You're. You know you're.
- 24:47Twiddling your thumbs, waiting until next Sunday.
- 24:49You know you could do. You can go to Amazon.com.
- 24:51And type in the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook and you could
- 24:54read one of my full chapters on how to bet.
- 24:56The Super Bowl and Super. Bowl props.
- 24:59If you also want to get. The all sister, sorry the
- 25:01everything guide to sports betting.
- 25:02You can also pick that up on Amazon if you want to grab one
- 25:05or. Both of my books bring the
- 25:07sports book. I'll sign them for you.
- 25:09I'll buy you beer or ginger ale. We'll sweat some games together.
- 25:12Next, have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Reel yet?
- 25:14My two favorite sports betting apps.
- 25:16They help me. Win they're.
- 25:17Going to help you win. So Rhythm is great for their AI
- 25:19backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
- 25:22Juice Reel. So many great.
- 25:23Features the robo Jackson best bet picks the sharp mush
- 25:26indicators. The arbitrage plays the shop for
- 25:29the best line futures. But also you can.
- 25:31Support the pod by signing up to get the all systems go official
- 25:34best bet picks from the Juice Reel app.
- 25:37I got my. Books synced to juice reel.
- 25:39If I place a bet it goes right to juice reel.
- 25:41You can tail fade, do what you like.
- 25:43But I consider it a tip jar if you go out to dinner the you
- 25:46know the server takes. Care of you refills.
- 25:48Your water when it's low. Is nice to you, smiles.
- 25:50At you, maybe you know. Gives you a good recommendation.
- 25:54You give them a. Tip at the end of the night,
- 25:56well if you enjoy the pod, it's free.
- 25:58If you enjoy the insights, you want to make my day.
- 26:00Go get. Those ASG best bets from Juice
- 26:02Reel. It'll cost you $4.99 a week.
- 26:05So 5 bucks for a week's worth of plays.
- 26:07Less than a dollar a day next. Do you have a live odds page?
- 26:11If you don't have one, you need one.
- 26:12You got to be able to track the. Market understand what games
- 26:15are. Available for me to bet today.
- 26:17Start times, live scoring, live in game wagering odds.
- 26:20Most importantly, the ability to track the market.
- 26:23When lines are moving, they. Get lit up in red so you know if
- 26:26you like something you better jump on it now.
- 26:28Also you can compare the opening column to the current.
- 26:31Prices at all the different. Books and shop for the best line
- 26:34and figure out which direction the line is.
- 26:35Moving you can do all. Of that with odds logic.
- 26:39So with odds logic. You're going to get a 7 day free
- 26:41trial 50% off your first month. If you use this.
- 26:44Speciallinkoddslogic.com/josh 123 next to last.
- 26:51Novig Novig is a sports. Betting.
- 26:53Exchange It's not a sports book, so as a result, you're going to
- 26:56get. Way better juice prices because
- 26:58you're operating in a in an exchange against other betters,
- 27:01not the. House so instead.
- 27:02Of laying -115 -, 120 you're laying minus one O 2 -, 1 O 4
- 27:07plus one O 5. You can win at the same.
- 27:09Rate you would at DK. Or FanDuel or any other sports
- 27:12book. But make more money with Novig
- 27:14because you're risking less juice.
- 27:16So if you want to give Novig a shot, just download the Novig
- 27:19app. NOVIG and when you fund your
- 27:22account, put in Josh 123 in the promo.
- 27:24Code and you will. Get an extra 25 bucks to play
- 27:28with. So that about dozen guys,
- 27:30Episode 443 of the ASG pod in the books, as always, whether I
- 27:34see you at the Borgata. In Atlantic.
- 27:36City Twin River in Rhode Island, The Brook in New Hampshire,
- 27:38Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun. Down in Connecticut, the encore
- 27:41in Boston. Plain Ridge Park Casino MGM.
- 27:43Springfield, the Nash and my neck of the woods in the border
- 27:46of Massachusetts and New Hampshire.
- 27:48Or out in the desert, where the true grinders get down.
- 27:50Where Billy Walters sends his number runners.
- 27:52Where the lowest true as possible is found at the South
- 27:54Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
- 27:56plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool when he cashed a
- 27:59big ticket at Circa. You're going to walk up to me.
- 28:01You're. Going to show me DePaul, Xavier
- 28:03and Baylor and. We're just going to laugh, RIP
- 28:05them up, recycle the tickets and we're going to and we're going
- 28:09to plead to the gambling gods for some luck to turn in our
- 28:12favor. So bad beats and CLV guys.
- 28:16Hey, that's the way it's been last couple days.
- 28:18But you know, if you're betting every day for a full year,
- 28:20you're going to have a couple little these unfortunate streaks
- 28:23here. But here's the thing, a new day,
- 28:26a new opportunity to to make some money.
- 28:28So let's see if we can do that tonight.
- 28:29So as always, guys coming off an O and.
- 28:31Three or a. Three and OA 2.
- 28:32And one or A1 and 2A Winning night A.
- 28:34Losing Night A. Hot streak a cold streak we.
- 28:37Just got to stick with it, can't get too high, cocky, arrogant
- 28:40when things are going. Our way.
- 28:41Can't get down in the dumps when we're getting bad beaded.
- 28:43In. CLV and losing, we just got to
- 28:46stick with it and in that case we got to continue to make the
- 28:50plays when they are in front of us and they match the system and
- 28:53that system is against the public with the house with.
- 28:56The pros Flat bet. Avoid parlays and get that.
- 28:58CLV If we can do that, we're. Going to be successful sports
- 29:01bettors. So have a great Thursday night,
- 29:03everybody. We will be.
- 29:06Doing the Rhythm Rundown tonight, 6:00 PM live on Twitter
- 29:08if you want to join, and then we'll be right back at it
- 29:11tomorrow to. Finish up the week, that'll be
- 29:13episode 440. 4 on a Friday of the all systems go sports
- 29:17betting podcast powered by rhythm.
- 29:20Good luck everybody and have a great Thursday night.