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Marlins/Brewers MLB + WNBA Best Bets Sunday 7/27/25 · Toadstool Sports

0:01
Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
0:06
Speaker 1: Own seven run over the last two days after tonight
0:09
Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
0:12
Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
0:15
Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
0:18
Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
0:20
Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two
0:25
Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
0:28
Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
0:34
Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
0:38
Speaker 1: reached into peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my browins
0:42
Speaker 1: hat man, I don't know what is going on with
0:44
Speaker 1: the bruins ourchhape? Is that what it is? I don't
0:47
Speaker 1: even know it's it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
0:52
Speaker 1: I don't know what day it is anymore. But I
0:54
Speaker 1: don't even know what day it is anymore. Man, back
0:56
Speaker 1: with you after the worst day that I could possibly have,
1:00
Speaker 1: Back with you as I always am until I die,
1:03
Speaker 1: at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did
1:07
Speaker 1: not go well for me. Own five, the worst month
1:11
Speaker 1: that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this,
1:14
Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
1:16
Speaker 1: Total slump, praise, the slump, discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody
1:21
Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
1:25
Speaker 1: should do at this point, other than potentially end it all.
1:33
Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's sewed back with you for Sunday,
1:38
Speaker 1: July twenty seventh. This is better off dead. Maybe I
1:42
Speaker 1: indeed am better off dead. Yesterday on the show went
1:44
Speaker 1: one on one and it was a break even day,
1:46
Speaker 1: at least at the prices that I had out there.
1:49
Speaker 1: The even money on each of them. The Yankees was
1:51
Speaker 1: a total bust, which I'm not too sad about that
1:54
Speaker 1: because Yankees suck. Fuck the Yankees, So you know, if
1:58
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take a loss on it anything, I'm glad
2:00
Speaker 1: it's something like that. Although of course, as I point out,
2:04
Speaker 1: I'm not actually betting these, so I'm giving them out
2:07
Speaker 1: as if I were. And then we did get the
2:09
Speaker 1: undercorrect in Tampa Bay Cincinnati, which maybe I should have
2:13
Speaker 1: gone first five innings on that instead, because first five
2:15
Speaker 1: innings it was scoreless, zero runs in the first five innings.
2:19
Speaker 1: I thought the bullpens were okay enough to get it done,
2:22
Speaker 1: and they were, but it got a little bit close
2:23
Speaker 1: at the end because Cincinnati patted their score with two
2:27
Speaker 1: runs in the bottom of the eighth inning, So then
2:29
Speaker 1: it got a little bit dicey. You had to hope
2:31
Speaker 1: that Cincinnati was able to hold Tampa Bay pretty much
2:35
Speaker 1: off the board in the last inning there so because otherwise,
2:39
Speaker 1: if Tampa Bay had scored one run, it would have
2:41
Speaker 1: pushed instead of been a winner. So luckily Tampa Bay
2:44
Speaker 1: did not score in the top of the ninth inn
2:46
Speaker 1: because Cincinnati was winning, they did not beat in the
2:48
Speaker 1: bottom of the ninth, so that was it landed eight,
2:52
Speaker 1: So the under nine was a winner on that one.
2:54
Speaker 1: Move on to today. I mostly like unders today the best,
2:59
Speaker 1: to be honest, three games where I like the under.
3:02
Speaker 1: Two of them I like it more than the first
3:03
Speaker 1: five innings, and only one of them I'm going to
3:05
Speaker 1: elevate to a play and it is going to be, well,
3:08
Speaker 1: you already know what it is because it's in the title,
3:10
Speaker 1: so it's a full game under in baseball. I think
3:13
Speaker 1: it's actually it's the strongest play on the board man
3:16
Speaker 1: in my opinion. And let's get into it. We do
3:19
Speaker 1: have WNBA. WNBA plays a lot of games on Sunday, man,
3:22
Speaker 1: because it's a blasphemous league, just like the NFL, they
3:28
Speaker 1: just play on Sunday for whatever reason. I'm not really
3:31
Speaker 1: interested in any of these games, man, but they do
3:33
Speaker 1: start this afternoon, and they get all this top billing.
3:36
Speaker 1: You get CBS Sports playing one of these games or
3:38
Speaker 1: airing it. You get the Caitlin Clarkless fever up against
3:42
Speaker 1: Angel Rees. Is anybody really gonna want to watch that
3:45
Speaker 1: game that's on ESPN Plus and ABC? I mean really?
3:49
Speaker 1: And then you get baseball is getting demoded down to
3:52
Speaker 1: like who even knows? Man, It just it baffles me, dude,
3:55
Speaker 1: that it's baseball season. Baseball is still one of the
3:57
Speaker 1: major sports, even though I hate the rule changes. You
4:00
Speaker 1: flip on ESPN and they're like, now we're not We're
4:02
Speaker 1: not airing baseball only the ESPN night games. No, we're
4:06
Speaker 1: gonna air re airs of the SBS. We're gonna air
4:10
Speaker 1: I don't know, the World Series of Softball or something
4:14
Speaker 1: that Little League Softball is that I think that was
4:17
Speaker 1: what was on the other day, and whatever other crap
4:20
Speaker 1: I think. Yet, yesterday ESPN had banana ball on It's crazy, dude.
4:26
Speaker 1: At least that's somewhat entertaining anyway. Golden State at Connecticut,
4:30
Speaker 1: I mean this game. I don't even know what to
4:33
Speaker 1: say about this game. It's not even interesting at all.
4:35
Speaker 1: Man Connecticut, They're easily the worst team in the WNBA.
4:39
Speaker 1: They have three wins on the entire season, four straight losses.
4:44
Speaker 1: Some of these games at least somewhat close. But I
4:48
Speaker 1: don't even know if I wouldn't even put much trusty
4:51
Speaker 1: to Connecticut in any spot. Really, Golden State is at
4:54
Speaker 1: least coming off a win against Dallas, who's not a
4:57
Speaker 1: very good team either. Break a low Street today had
4:59
Speaker 1: is Golden State actually playing surprisingly well for like an
5:02
Speaker 1: expansion team or whatever they are. The line is down
5:06
Speaker 1: for six and a half to five. Though here with
5:07
Speaker 1: Golden State, I'm not even sure that I agree with that,
5:11
Speaker 1: to be honest, but that is the way that the
5:12
Speaker 1: line has moved. I don't really see an angle on
5:15
Speaker 1: that game at all. Indiana, as I mentioned, originally it
5:18
Speaker 1: looked like Caitlin Clark might be back in this game,
5:20
Speaker 1: and you know me, when you have a long absence
5:23
Speaker 1: from a star player like Caitlin Clark. I'd be looking
5:26
Speaker 1: to fade Indiana when she does come back, because that
5:29
Speaker 1: star player coming back into the lineup, the line has
5:31
Speaker 1: to adjust for it, and the team has to like
5:34
Speaker 1: adjust their chemistry. Man, they play a completely different style
5:37
Speaker 1: with Clark there, So when she does come back, I
5:39
Speaker 1: think Indiana will be in a fade spot. But it
5:41
Speaker 1: looks like she's out until August now, which is crazy,
5:45
Speaker 1: exactly what the WNBA wants, right, You're gonna you're gonna
5:48
Speaker 1: have your players beating up Caitlin Clark on the court,
5:50
Speaker 1: even though she's your most popular player and now she's
5:53
Speaker 1: not playing. Good luck to the w NBA. Chicago is
5:57
Speaker 1: still so bad that even without Caitlin Clark, Indiana is
6:00
Speaker 1: up from eight and a half to a nine point
6:02
Speaker 1: favorite on the road. Not sure that I would trust
6:05
Speaker 1: Indiana to lay a price like that in this spot.
6:07
Speaker 1: They're coming up beating Vegas without Kaitlyn Clark. They've been
6:11
Speaker 1: without Kaitlin Clark for a while. I mean, that's a
6:13
Speaker 1: decent win for Indiana there against Vegas. They had just
6:16
Speaker 1: come home and now they're starting another road trip. I'll
6:19
Speaker 1: go into Chicago. I mean it's a short trip though,
6:22
Speaker 1: at least for them. Chicago. I mean, they're one of
6:25
Speaker 1: the lesser teams in the WNBA as well, coming off
6:27
Speaker 1: three straight losses. Maybe a bit embarrassed though, because they
6:30
Speaker 1: got blown out or four straight losses. They got blown
6:33
Speaker 1: out in the last three, So Chicago might come out
6:36
Speaker 1: with some sense of fire there. I think maybe that
6:39
Speaker 1: line is too high without Clark, but we will find out.
6:42
Speaker 1: Of course. Vegas at Dallas, I actually think that taking
6:46
Speaker 1: the points with Dallas might be the best look today.
6:49
Speaker 1: Vegas is at the very least coming off two big
6:51
Speaker 1: games against Indiana and Minnesota. But they did lose to
6:55
Speaker 1: Minnesota pretty badly, so maybe they'll come out with some
6:59
Speaker 1: you know, fire after that, trying to bounce back after
7:02
Speaker 1: losing by thirty one points. So the Minnesota is very
7:05
Speaker 1: very good. Vegas is playing a third straight road game though,
7:09
Speaker 1: so it's not really the greatest situational spot for Vegas here.
7:12
Speaker 1: And how many days are they playing that? And let
7:14
Speaker 1: me see, they're playing three games in four days. It
7:19
Speaker 1: looks like in four games it's six days actually, all
7:21
Speaker 1: in different cities, and tomorrow to be five or two
7:24
Speaker 1: days from now to be five games in eight days
7:27
Speaker 1: or whatever. So that is a pretty difficult scheduling spot
7:31
Speaker 1: for Vegas, so I would lean to Dallas for that
7:33
Speaker 1: reason as well, And primarily I also like Dallas because
7:37
Speaker 1: Becker's is injured, so it's the injured player theory man
7:41
Speaker 1: as I just talked about with Clark with the reverse
7:43
Speaker 1: injured player theory. With Dallas, Beckers did just play in
7:46
Speaker 1: their last game and now she's hurt. And when you
7:48
Speaker 1: have a star player like that get hurt, the line
7:51
Speaker 1: has to adjust to account for that. So you're gonna
7:53
Speaker 1: get extra value potentially on that team at the injured player.
7:56
Speaker 1: But that first game that she's out, they know they
7:58
Speaker 1: have to come out and play with a lot of
8:00
Speaker 1: fire there to try to compensate for her being out.
8:02
Speaker 1: So I think that's the situation that Dallas is in.
8:05
Speaker 1: So I do like the spot for Dallas here. Dallas
8:08
Speaker 1: coming off a loss. They are returning back home from
8:11
Speaker 1: playing two games on the road, not really a long
8:13
Speaker 1: road trip, so I wouldn't say that's like a road
8:15
Speaker 1: trip return spot where they're gonna be all distracted or whatever.
8:19
Speaker 1: I might want to bounce back from that loss too,
8:21
Speaker 1: So I do like Dallas plus the points they're Vegas
8:24
Speaker 1: down up from five and a half to eight and
8:26
Speaker 1: a half now, but that moves because of Becker's being out,
8:29
Speaker 1: I assume, so I would take Dallas. I'm tempted to
8:32
Speaker 1: make that a play. I mean, that is, I think
8:34
Speaker 1: that is the best play to make in the WNBA
8:37
Speaker 1: today is to take the points of Dallas. Maybe I'll
8:39
Speaker 1: just stay off a little bit though, Christo, what's up? Yep,
8:43
Speaker 1: it's only you. No, Clark is an easy fame, no,
8:48
Speaker 1: I mean I disagree with that to some extent. When
8:52
Speaker 1: she's been out for a while though, and they've been
8:54
Speaker 1: playing without her for that long, obviously they're just not
8:57
Speaker 1: as good a team, so you could definitely fade them. No,
9:01
Speaker 1: Thornton is also a fade with Golden State. I don't know.
9:07
Speaker 1: I would have to look to see, like because, like
9:09
Speaker 1: I said, the first game that you're missing like a
9:11
Speaker 1: key player like that, you want to actually look to
9:14
Speaker 1: be on that team. But if she's been out like
9:17
Speaker 1: for a while, then then you don't want to be
9:19
Speaker 1: on that team anymore, you know what I mean, Because
9:23
Speaker 1: it's like it lasts like that one. Yeah, there's there's
9:26
Speaker 1: a Caleb Thornton there. I mean, she's out for the season, though,
9:29
Speaker 1: so I would disagree with you on that. I mean,
9:32
Speaker 1: if this is not her first game out, I would
9:34
Speaker 1: just I don't pay that much attention to the w NBA,
9:36
Speaker 1: But if this is not her first game out, I would.
9:40
Speaker 1: I would disagree with you a little bit on that.
9:42
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily disagree with the Connecticut side though, in general,
9:45
Speaker 1: but it wouldn't just be because Thornton is out though
9:49
Speaker 1: Phoenix is at Washington. Phoenix is up from six and
9:54
Speaker 1: a half to seven and a half on the road.
9:56
Speaker 1: Washington did play yesterday, so I guess I slightly do
9:59
Speaker 1: agree with that. I mean, it's a tough spot for
10:01
Speaker 1: Washington back to back. They did just pull off an
10:04
Speaker 1: upset yesterday against Seattle, who's seemingly playing a lot of
10:07
Speaker 1: low scoring games recently. I'm pretty surprised that Seattle had
10:10
Speaker 1: such a bad game yesterday, but that looks like a
10:13
Speaker 1: little bit of an outlier to me. So I think
10:15
Speaker 1: fading Washington might make sense here. Phoenix coming off three
10:20
Speaker 1: straight losses, they might want to bounce back from that.
10:22
Speaker 1: It is a second straight road game for them, but
10:24
Speaker 1: not really the worst spot for them. I wouldn't say
10:27
Speaker 1: so I do probably agree with that line. Move on
10:29
Speaker 1: Phoenix and then Atlanta at Minnesota. I think people might
10:32
Speaker 1: look at this game and think, oh, you have two
10:34
Speaker 1: good teams here and you're getting eight points with Atlanta.
10:37
Speaker 1: To me, it seems like the public might want to
10:39
Speaker 1: jump on Atlanta if they look at this game thinking
10:41
Speaker 1: that with two good teams, the line looks too big,
10:44
Speaker 1: but Minnesota is really good. Man up from seven to
10:47
Speaker 1: eight here, I would probably be leaning to Minnesota in
10:50
Speaker 1: this game. I mean, they just keep rolling, but they
10:53
Speaker 1: might be a little bit feeling maybe too high on
10:55
Speaker 1: themselves after a couple of blowout wins here, so I
10:58
Speaker 1: wouldn't quite want to do it, but they do have
11:00
Speaker 1: at least momentum right now, and I think both teams
11:04
Speaker 1: are going to recognize that this is a pretty big game.
11:07
Speaker 1: And Atlanta is coming off winning against Phoenix, but they're
11:10
Speaker 1: playing well. It looks like it's a six straight road game,
11:14
Speaker 1: but it's really a third straight road game. I think
11:16
Speaker 1: out of an All Star break. They had an All
11:18
Speaker 1: Star break in there, but man, Atlanta has not had
11:20
Speaker 1: a home game for a long time, so yeah, I
11:23
Speaker 1: mean those are That's the w NBA breakdown again, I
11:26
Speaker 1: still think the best w NBA play to make is
11:29
Speaker 1: Dallas plus the points. Though the Connecticut spot Where's Crystal
11:33
Speaker 1: likes Connecticut? I don't. I don't really disagree with that.
11:37
Speaker 1: You're going to one of your favorite breweries to watch
11:40
Speaker 1: the Angels lose. Have fun with that, Andrew, I mean breweries, dude.
11:45
Speaker 1: I mean I went sober. But I love going to breweries, dude,
11:48
Speaker 1: Like I used. I love the craft that goes into
11:51
Speaker 1: making beer, man, in all the different styles that they have.
11:54
Speaker 1: I would go to breweries absolutely, like get flights, like
11:57
Speaker 1: to try a bunch of different types of beer. I love.
12:00
Speaker 1: I would love to do that, man. I would still
12:03
Speaker 1: drink way too much though, and I did that. So yeah.
12:08
Speaker 1: But yeah, the Angels, I did call that yesterday. I
12:11
Speaker 1: said they were gonna lose that game. Even though, dude,
12:13
Speaker 1: the Angels, I think today it's also happening. If you
12:16
Speaker 1: look at the market read the money is saying to
12:19
Speaker 1: take the Angels. And I disagreed with it yesterday, and
12:21
Speaker 1: I don't think I agree with it today either. So
12:23
Speaker 1: it's just I don't know what else to tell you
12:26
Speaker 1: about that. And Seattle is actually a very good offense
12:28
Speaker 1: on the road. Their offense gets kind of hampered at
12:32
Speaker 1: home because it's a very picture friendly park, but Seattle
12:35
Speaker 1: is actually pretty good on the road. Anyway, Let's go
12:37
Speaker 1: to MLB here. We have afternoon games here because it
12:40
Speaker 1: is Sunday, so teams are gonna have to travel after
12:43
Speaker 1: they finished these series. Arizona is at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh. Both
12:48
Speaker 1: of these games have been shut out, so this has
12:50
Speaker 1: been a really low scoring series. Pittsburgh lost the first
12:53
Speaker 1: game one nothing and then won the second game two
12:56
Speaker 1: to nothing. Yesterday. You have a bad Arizona bullpen here.
13:01
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's bullpen I think got a little bit more usage yesterday,
13:03
Speaker 1: so I don't love either bullpen here. This is one
13:07
Speaker 1: of the games where I was almost gonna give out
13:09
Speaker 1: a play on the first five inning under because if
13:11
Speaker 1: you like the under in this game, I think it's
13:14
Speaker 1: mostly going to be based on the starting pitching matchup
13:16
Speaker 1: I really would hesitate to In most cases, I hesitate
13:20
Speaker 1: to play it under involving Arizona's bullpen, and I wouldn't
13:23
Speaker 1: really want Pittsburgh's bullpen involved either. So the Valkyries were
13:28
Speaker 1: a mess last night. They didn't play last night, right,
13:31
Speaker 1: did I? Get that wrong. I don't know. I would
13:32
Speaker 1: have to look. I thought that Washington was the only
13:34
Speaker 1: team on a back to back today, Arizona Pittsburgh. Zach
13:38
Speaker 1: Gallon is pitching for Arizona. He is not having a
13:40
Speaker 1: good season. Five point five eighty R, one point three
13:44
Speaker 1: seven whip. I mean, his career numbers tell you that
13:47
Speaker 1: he should turn this around, and I think to some
13:49
Speaker 1: extent he has a little bit. Recently. He's been a
13:52
Speaker 1: little bit better on the road five point one six RA,
13:54
Speaker 1: but he's been getting wall of by the home run
13:57
Speaker 1: ball man. He's given up twenty three home runs this season,
14:00
Speaker 1: pretty much the same home and away, so that's been
14:02
Speaker 1: a huge problem of his But for his numbers here,
14:07
Speaker 1: I mean, he has a twenty eight to four strikeout
14:09
Speaker 1: walk ratio this month, which is not bad. So that
14:12
Speaker 1: does tell you that Gallan does have his command back.
14:15
Speaker 1: That's this month. It's just he's allowed four home runs.
14:18
Speaker 1: He's allowed six runs each in his last two games,
14:20
Speaker 1: but he lasted at least five innings in both of them,
14:23
Speaker 1: and he still had a nine to three strike out
14:25
Speaker 1: walk ratio of those two starts. So I don't know
14:27
Speaker 1: that I'm ready to say that those starts were really
14:30
Speaker 1: quite as bad as they looked. Although yeah, he gave
14:33
Speaker 1: up some hard contact I guess, so that's bad. But
14:37
Speaker 1: he's stepping down in class A bit to face a
14:39
Speaker 1: really weak Pittsburgh lineup here. He has good numbers against
14:42
Speaker 1: them in ninety at bats a two forty four average,
14:45
Speaker 1: allowed six to seventy one ohps, twenty two to eleven
14:49
Speaker 1: strike a walk ratios. Too many walks up for Gallon there,
14:52
Speaker 1: But overall, I'm kind of expecting him to pitch pretty
14:54
Speaker 1: well in this game, which, as I that's what I
14:56
Speaker 1: was saying, I do lean to an under perhaps in
14:59
Speaker 1: the first five innings in this game. Paul Skeens is
15:02
Speaker 1: pitching for Pittsburgh. I mean, we know, we know everything
15:05
Speaker 1: about Skiings, all right, one point nine to one ERA,
15:08
Speaker 1: point nine to one whip on the season ridiculous, slightly
15:12
Speaker 1: worse at home with a two point zero sixty RA,
15:14
Speaker 1: but doesn't even really matter. I mean, it's Paul Skeens.
15:17
Speaker 1: He has a twenty seven to two strike out walk
15:19
Speaker 1: ratio this month in point eighty six whip. The All
15:23
Speaker 1: Star Break didn't even seem to affect him at all. Really,
15:25
Speaker 1: I mean, he's just rolling, and he has good numbers
15:28
Speaker 1: against Arizona, even though they have a pretty good offense
15:30
Speaker 1: even without Nailer there, Paul Skeens has just wrecked them though.
15:34
Speaker 1: In twenty six at bats one ninety two average allowed
15:37
Speaker 1: five point thirty oh ps six to one strikeout walk ratio.
15:40
Speaker 1: So I'm leaning to the under in this game first
15:44
Speaker 1: five innings though, as I said, the money looks like
15:46
Speaker 1: it is agreeing with the under, even though it looks
15:48
Speaker 1: like there was an initial move up on the total
15:50
Speaker 1: from seven to seven and a half. But I see
15:52
Speaker 1: sixty two percent of tickets and seventy eight percent of
15:54
Speaker 1: cash on the under. Again, I'm agreeing with the under
15:57
Speaker 1: in this game, but in the first five innings. And
16:02
Speaker 1: the problem with that is I don't love going under
16:04
Speaker 1: three and a half in the first five innings. Man,
16:06
Speaker 1: it's basically three and a half everywhere. I did see
16:08
Speaker 1: a four and a half out or excuseally not a
16:10
Speaker 1: four and a half. That would be crazy. A four
16:12
Speaker 1: out there at one book, I did see a four
16:15
Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. I think you had to pay about minus
16:18
Speaker 1: one eighteen minus one twenty four, And I mean, if
16:20
Speaker 1: you see that, I don't disagree with that, either get
16:23
Speaker 1: that extra half a run there, But that's a lean
16:26
Speaker 1: for me. It's not going to quite be a play
16:27
Speaker 1: just because I do worry about goalon a little bit.
16:29
Speaker 1: But Skeens six strikeouts is that his that's his strikeout
16:34
Speaker 1: prop today. I don't think I would want to take
16:36
Speaker 1: Skeens over Man because I think you're never gonna get
16:39
Speaker 1: value on Skeens on a strike up prop because everybody
16:41
Speaker 1: knows exactly what he is, even though yes, he does
16:44
Speaker 1: pitch well against Arizona. Problem is with Skeens, they're limiting
16:50
Speaker 1: his pitch count right now. They're letting him go like
16:53
Speaker 1: eighty eighty five pitches per start now because they don't
16:56
Speaker 1: want to burn him out. So you gotta really worry
16:59
Speaker 1: about the fact that he might only be in this
17:00
Speaker 1: game for like five maybe six innings max. They're like
17:03
Speaker 1: not gonna let him go the distance here as far
17:05
Speaker 1: as what they've been doing recently. So I would worry
17:07
Speaker 1: about that a little bit, mostly because I think they're
17:10
Speaker 1: gonna take him out of the game. They would if
17:14
Speaker 1: they were like really let go. So that's most words
17:17
Speaker 1: me about that it's Thornton's second game out, then yeah,
17:21
Speaker 1: I would I would definitely agree with you then on
17:23
Speaker 1: that uh to uh look towards Connecticut in that game.
17:26
Speaker 1: Then yeah, that's all right, good to see you everybody.
17:29
Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. Where's Christel? Mostly you're the only
17:33
Speaker 1: on to here man? All right? Oh in that game,
17:38
Speaker 1: by the way, for the side, uh Pittsburgh, I mean,
17:40
Speaker 1: I think you're never gonna really get value on Pittsburgh
17:43
Speaker 1: with Paul Skeens pitching. You always get taxed for taking Pittsburgh.
17:47
Speaker 1: With Paul Skeans, they opened minus one fifty two. I mean,
17:50
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is such a bad team, and because Skeens is
17:54
Speaker 1: again probably gonna be out of there by the sixth
17:56
Speaker 1: or seventh inning, I mean, it seems like too much
17:59
Speaker 1: of a and it's already down to minus one forty seven,
18:03
Speaker 1: sixty eight percent of tickets, only sixty four percent of
18:06
Speaker 1: the cash. So Pittsburgh actually public basically just because Skeens
18:09
Speaker 1: is the starter here in Gallon has really ugly looking
18:12
Speaker 1: numbers this year. But Arizona still has the way better offense.
18:16
Speaker 1: So that's probably the way that I would be leaning.
18:18
Speaker 1: Although you do have to worry about Arizona again, as
18:21
Speaker 1: I've talked about their mental state since the Nailer trade,
18:24
Speaker 1: because that really made it clear that Arizona is not
18:28
Speaker 1: going for it this year and they're actually selling this year.
18:31
Speaker 1: Colorado at Baltimore. Baltimore, after losing the first game of
18:35
Speaker 1: the series, they had a really good bounce back yesterday
18:38
Speaker 1: and they won eighteen to nothing. Not expecting that to
18:41
Speaker 1: happen again. And when a team loses eighteen to nothing
18:44
Speaker 1: like Colorado did, they're probably gonna come out with a
18:46
Speaker 1: little bit of anger here. That's not to say that
18:48
Speaker 1: they're gonna really necessarily win this game, though, but I
18:51
Speaker 1: think Colorado's gonna come out kind of in an embarrassed
18:54
Speaker 1: mood here, and Baltimore is certainly not a really trustworthy team.
18:59
Speaker 1: Baltimore does have the better offense, obviously, but the bullpen.
19:03
Speaker 1: The bullpens are both bad, so I mean that's something
19:06
Speaker 1: to take into account in this game too. And I
19:08
Speaker 1: don't like either starter at this point either. Gombers pitching
19:11
Speaker 1: for Colorado. He's not having a good season, which he
19:15
Speaker 1: started his season late, so it's a small sample size,
19:17
Speaker 1: but his numbers look pretty much as bad as all
19:20
Speaker 1: the rest of their starters. Six point zero three era
19:23
Speaker 1: a horrendous one point six to six whip. He's been
19:26
Speaker 1: better away from coursefield though, three point eight six thera
19:30
Speaker 1: away from course field, so at least he's been serviceable
19:33
Speaker 1: on the road. Although Colorado has lost five straight starts
19:36
Speaker 1: for him to some extent, that's just because overall is
19:39
Speaker 1: a team they're terrible. I mean, he actually, in his
19:42
Speaker 1: last five starts he's only allowed more than four earned
19:45
Speaker 1: runs once, so that's not that bad, but that was
19:48
Speaker 1: his most recent start. Did have a six to nothing
19:51
Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio in that one though against Saint Louis,
19:53
Speaker 1: and overall this month fifteen to four strike out walk
19:56
Speaker 1: ratio isn't that bad. So his command has been okay,
19:59
Speaker 1: but he's allowing a lot of hits. He's a lot
20:01
Speaker 1: of home run in every one of the last four starts,
20:04
Speaker 1: thirty two hits in nineteen or two thirds innings and
20:06
Speaker 1: a five point nine to five VRA this month, so
20:09
Speaker 1: even though he's not walking a lot of guys, he's
20:11
Speaker 1: leaving pitchers over the plate and getting hit hard, so
20:13
Speaker 1: that's not a good sign. Baltimore hasn't hit him that
20:16
Speaker 1: well though, in forty three career at bats to thirty
20:19
Speaker 1: three batting average six to eight ops and a twelve
20:22
Speaker 1: to three strikeout walk ratio, so Gomber might actually do
20:25
Speaker 1: okay in this game. Baltimore has Tomoyuki Sugano pitching, and
20:30
Speaker 1: he is new to the major leagues this year, so
20:33
Speaker 1: I think early on he had a bit of an
20:35
Speaker 1: advantage to some extent because these major league hitters had
20:38
Speaker 1: never seen him before. But I think the major leagues
20:41
Speaker 1: they're starting to figure him out. Man. And he's not
20:44
Speaker 1: a hard thrower, which I know, the age of the
20:46
Speaker 1: hard throwers is kind of like, I mean, it's to
20:49
Speaker 1: some extent gone, Like you do need like movement and stuff,
20:52
Speaker 1: you need to be able to fool hitters because major
20:54
Speaker 1: league hitters have really focused on hitting the fastball recently,
20:57
Speaker 1: even though of course you still have the best pitchers
20:59
Speaker 1: in the league, guys that are throwing gas so like Skiens,
21:02
Speaker 1: school ball curchet, I mean, you know, but Sugano, I mean,
21:06
Speaker 1: he's more of a control pitcher. He's more of a
21:09
Speaker 1: pitcher that's going to try to fool you with off
21:11
Speaker 1: speed stuff. But he's really falling apart. His era is
21:14
Speaker 1: up to four point five to four one point three
21:16
Speaker 1: to five whip. That's not good A little bit worse
21:19
Speaker 1: at home four point eight six ERA here this past month.
21:23
Speaker 1: Three starts of far during July, I mean not good.
21:27
Speaker 1: Seven point five three ERA failed to make it five
21:29
Speaker 1: innings and two of the three starts eleven to eight
21:32
Speaker 1: strikeout walk right here, that's really bad. And the best
21:35
Speaker 1: start that he made this month was against the Mets,
21:37
Speaker 1: and then he had two bad starts against Texas and Cleveland,
21:40
Speaker 1: who are horrendous offenses, so very very strange. He stepped
21:45
Speaker 1: it up a bit to face the better offense that
21:47
Speaker 1: he faced this month, very strange. And he's facing a
21:50
Speaker 1: bad Colorado offense here, and Colorado's yeah, I mean they've
21:53
Speaker 1: never seen him before, so I'm not really expecting Colorado
21:57
Speaker 1: to do a lot of damage offensively here against him.
22:00
Speaker 1: But he has not pitched well. So this is a
22:01
Speaker 1: game that's it's hard to figure out games like this
22:04
Speaker 1: memory you have bad offenses and bad starting pitchers. It's like, well,
22:08
Speaker 1: which one of them wins out? When they're all bad,
22:11
Speaker 1: The oddsmakers are telling you that the hitting is gonna
22:13
Speaker 1: win out here. The total, they threw the total up
22:16
Speaker 1: at ten, and it's actually gone a little bit towards
22:20
Speaker 1: the over. But then we have fifty four percent of
22:22
Speaker 1: tickets on the over and now sixty six percent of
22:24
Speaker 1: the cash on the under after that initial move, So
22:26
Speaker 1: the money seems like it is maybe coming back in
22:28
Speaker 1: on the under. But if the books are throwing a
22:30
Speaker 1: total out there at ten, they're basically telling you something, man.
22:33
Speaker 1: And this is not being played at Coors Field either,
22:36
Speaker 1: So a ten is ridiculous. And that is also taking
22:39
Speaker 1: into account that the bullpens suck. Baltimore is a big
22:42
Speaker 1: favorite too, and they're public. They're at bigger than minus
22:45
Speaker 1: two hundred favorite here. I would not want to do
22:48
Speaker 1: anything with Baltimore on the side there. I mean, if anything,
22:50
Speaker 1: I would probably slightly lean back to, like taking a
22:53
Speaker 1: run line with Colorado or something in that one. Dodgers
22:56
Speaker 1: at my bust in Red Sox. This is a game, man,
23:01
Speaker 1: I don't like either of these starting pitchers either. Man.
23:03
Speaker 1: The Red Sox got the win yesterday. Garrett Crochet actually
23:06
Speaker 1: gave up two runs in the first inning and then
23:08
Speaker 1: held the Dodgers silent for the rest of the game.
23:10
Speaker 1: The Red Sox bullpen also got involved and held the
23:13
Speaker 1: Dodgers off the board. At the end of the game.
23:16
Speaker 1: Red Sox bullpen is still the better bullpen. The Dodgers'
23:19
Speaker 1: bullpen has been struggling quite a bit, so you gotta
23:22
Speaker 1: still give the bullpen edge to the Red Sox, even
23:24
Speaker 1: though they had a little bit of bullpend usage yesterday.
23:26
Speaker 1: Starting pitching, it's really difficult to even tell you which
23:30
Speaker 1: one of these starting pitchers has the advantage because they
23:33
Speaker 1: both suck. Dustin May is pitching for the Dodgers. He's
23:36
Speaker 1: not very good. Four point seven three ERA, one point
23:39
Speaker 1: three to six whip. He's been really really bad on
23:42
Speaker 1: the road, seven point seven ERA on the road, four
23:46
Speaker 1: runs higher than what his ERA is at home. That's ridiculous.
23:49
Speaker 1: This month, he hasn't been great either. Seven walks in
23:52
Speaker 1: the last two starts with eight strikeouts, failing to go
23:55
Speaker 1: five innings in both of them against weak offenses San
23:58
Speaker 1: Francisco and Minnesota, so that's a bad sign. In the
24:02
Speaker 1: last start of June, he was actually also bad against
24:05
Speaker 1: a bad offense in Kansas City and only went four
24:08
Speaker 1: innings in that one. That was not good either. So
24:10
Speaker 1: three of his last four starts have been pretty bad
24:14
Speaker 1: and had one good start mixed in there at home
24:16
Speaker 1: against Chicago the White Sox, which is another bad offense.
24:20
Speaker 1: So May is pitching pretty badly against bad offenses. Against
24:24
Speaker 1: the Red Sox, they really haven't seen much of him
24:26
Speaker 1: at all. Only Bregman and Story I've ever faced him,
24:29
Speaker 1: and they're combined one for ten, often with a strikeout.
24:32
Speaker 1: But I don't expect May to actually pitch that well here, man.
24:36
Speaker 1: I mean, his numbers just are not good, so I'm
24:38
Speaker 1: not really expecting even though he's unfamiliar to the Red
24:40
Speaker 1: Sox hitters, I don't think he's gonna be fooling the
24:43
Speaker 1: Red Sox hitters to that much of an extent here.
24:46
Speaker 1: But I don't think we could trust Walker Bueller to
24:49
Speaker 1: any extent either, man. I mean, he's a guy the
24:52
Speaker 1: Red Sox picked him up over the offseason. So the
24:54
Speaker 1: one advantage that he might have here, besides the fact that,
24:57
Speaker 1: as I'll point out, he is actually better at home
24:59
Speaker 1: this year, there is that. But he might be pumped
25:02
Speaker 1: up just to face his former team, man. But the
25:05
Speaker 1: thing is, it wasn't a trade though. He got picked
25:08
Speaker 1: up as a free agent in the offseason. But a
25:10
Speaker 1: lot of times you'll see a guy when they get
25:12
Speaker 1: traded or the first time they're facing a team that
25:14
Speaker 1: they were just on which this is gonna be his
25:16
Speaker 1: first time facing the Dodgers. He was on the Dodgers
25:19
Speaker 1: last year. Sometimes they get really pumped up to face
25:21
Speaker 1: that former team, so maybe that will have some effect
25:24
Speaker 1: on Walker Bueller here. But man, Bueller, if you look
25:27
Speaker 1: at his career stats, I was saying the Red Sox
25:29
Speaker 1: he never should have picked him up over the offseason.
25:32
Speaker 1: He has never come back from like the injuries that
25:35
Speaker 1: he's had. He was good early in his career, had
25:37
Speaker 1: some major injuries and he's been awful since then. He's
25:40
Speaker 1: never bounced back from it, and it has not been
25:43
Speaker 1: happening this year either. His numbers are awful. Five point
25:46
Speaker 1: seven to two ERA, one point five to two WHIP.
25:49
Speaker 1: That's not good at all. He is better at home,
25:51
Speaker 1: like I said, four point h one ERA, So the
25:54
Speaker 1: splits for these starting pitchers are very significant. Bueller ERA
26:00
Speaker 1: more than three runs better at home, so both so
26:03
Speaker 1: the splits for the starting pitchers actually favor Bueller over
26:07
Speaker 1: May Bueller. I mean, I guess you could somewhat argue
26:12
Speaker 1: that he's pitched a little bit better this month. He
26:14
Speaker 1: has a three ERA this month, but he only has
26:16
Speaker 1: an eight to four strikeout walk ratio. I mean, he
26:18
Speaker 1: hasn't been walking a lot of guys, so that's okay.
26:20
Speaker 1: So he's kind of making his name a misnomer finally
26:24
Speaker 1: and not walking as many guys as Walker Bueller. But
26:29
Speaker 1: his strikeout rate is really low. I mean, he's not
26:31
Speaker 1: really fooling guys. Man eight strikeouts again in eighteen innings,
26:36
Speaker 1: that's not really gonna get a done. Although he has
26:38
Speaker 1: gone at least five innings in all three starts this month,
26:40
Speaker 1: allowing three or fewer earned runs in all three starts,
26:43
Speaker 1: and the only loss that the Red Sox had there
26:45
Speaker 1: was not his fault, as the Red Sox didn't score
26:48
Speaker 1: really against Philadelphia. But I still don't trust Bueller at
26:52
Speaker 1: all against the Dodgers in his career. He does have
26:55
Speaker 1: good numbers, though, in forty five at bats he's onto
26:57
Speaker 1: a two hundred batting average. Sixs ten to five strike
27:01
Speaker 1: out walk ratio isn't that good, But almost all the
27:04
Speaker 1: damage has come from Freddy Freeman, who's five for eighteen
27:07
Speaker 1: with two of them runs and three of those walks.
27:09
Speaker 1: So if he can kind of pitch around him, maybe
27:11
Speaker 1: Bueller could do okay here. I mean, overall, I still
27:15
Speaker 1: I have a slight lean to the Red Sox here
27:17
Speaker 1: just because I think they do have the starting pitching edge.
27:21
Speaker 1: I guess slightly just because of the splits and the
27:25
Speaker 1: Dodgers having opened a road favorite here with May on
27:29
Speaker 1: the mound. I mean, I just don't really think that's justifiable,
27:31
Speaker 1: which it looks like the professional money also said that
27:34
Speaker 1: because the number already dropped for minus one to twenty
27:36
Speaker 1: five to minus one oh nine, so a pretty big
27:39
Speaker 1: money line move towards the Red Sox. And we do
27:42
Speaker 1: see the Dodgers being a bit public sixty percent of
27:44
Speaker 1: the tickets but sixty one percent of the cash right now.
27:46
Speaker 1: But to me, it still looks like the Red Sox
27:49
Speaker 1: got an actual like reverse line move there, and that
27:51
Speaker 1: the actual money is favoring the Red Sox. And again
27:54
Speaker 1: I do think they have the better bullpen. Dodgers do
27:56
Speaker 1: have the better offense, but the Red Sox offense is
27:59
Speaker 1: better at home, although their offense has been struggling for
28:02
Speaker 1: a while, so I do worry about the current state
28:04
Speaker 1: of the Red Sox lineup as well. And Marcella Meyer
28:07
Speaker 1: is injured, by the way, I mean, it's not the
28:09
Speaker 1: biggest injury for the Red Sox, but he is one
28:12
Speaker 1: of their young talented hitters and he's gonna be injured
28:16
Speaker 1: for who knows how long, so they are without him
28:18
Speaker 1: right now. All right, let's go to Philadelphia and the
28:22
Speaker 1: Yankee is one of the other big games of the day. Here,
28:25
Speaker 1: we actually get a pretty decent starting pitching matchup in
28:28
Speaker 1: this one. As I mentioned at this at the top
28:30
Speaker 1: of the show, the Yankees did lose again yesterday, so
28:33
Speaker 1: Yankee is not playing well, but I'm not shedding any
28:35
Speaker 1: tears about that actually getting blasted in this series. Man,
28:39
Speaker 1: They've given up twenty one runs in the first two
28:42
Speaker 1: games of this series. Both games have gone way over
28:44
Speaker 1: the total, which you know wasn't necessarily unexpected either. Though
28:49
Speaker 1: Yankee's not playing well, they might be in a kind
28:52
Speaker 1: of a situation where they're gonna bounce back here though,
28:54
Speaker 1: because again, you as a good team, especially you tend
28:58
Speaker 1: to be a little bit extra motivated to try to
29:00
Speaker 1: avoid that sweep and the other team could potentially take
29:03
Speaker 1: their foot off the gas a little bit. As far
29:05
Speaker 1: as the bullpens, Philadelphia's bullpen is slightly worse, but I
29:09
Speaker 1: really don't like either of these bullpens very much. So
29:11
Speaker 1: I think if you're looking at this game, you probably
29:13
Speaker 1: want to avoid the bullpens, and we see a really
29:16
Speaker 1: low total on this So if you're looking for like
29:18
Speaker 1: unders in this game, I would probably want to avoid
29:21
Speaker 1: the bullpens. Starting pitching. I mean, there's obviously a reason
29:24
Speaker 1: why the total is this low. Part of the reason
29:26
Speaker 1: is Zach Wheeler is pitching for the Phillies. He's been
29:29
Speaker 1: one of the best pitchers in all of baseball this
29:31
Speaker 1: year and for multiple seasons. Really two point three to
29:35
Speaker 1: nine ERA point eight eight whip he's been really really good.
29:39
Speaker 1: Slightly worse away from home two point eight nine ERA,
29:42
Speaker 1: but still really really good. This month, he's been insane
29:45
Speaker 1: with a twenty eight to one strikeout walk ratio a
29:49
Speaker 1: three ERA, and if you go back to his last
29:51
Speaker 1: start of the previous month, his strike out walk ratio
29:54
Speaker 1: goes up to thirty eight to one over the last
29:56
Speaker 1: five starts. That is unbelievable. I mean, you'll almost never
30:01
Speaker 1: see command numbers like that. That's crazy. And he's gone
30:04
Speaker 1: at least six innings in all four of those starts
30:06
Speaker 1: as well, allowing two or fewer runs in three of
30:09
Speaker 1: the starts and four and one of the outings against
30:11
Speaker 1: San Diego, which was the only loss. But we get it.
30:14
Speaker 1: Zach Wheeler is very good. His numbers against the Yankees
30:18
Speaker 1: are okay, but the Yankees do actually hit him for power,
30:22
Speaker 1: So the Yankees do not hit him very well for average,
30:24
Speaker 1: but they do have good power numbers against him. You know,
30:26
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty at bats, he has a forty
30:29
Speaker 1: two to thirteen strike a walk ratio. It's a big
30:32
Speaker 1: sample size, so the Yankees have seen a lot of
30:34
Speaker 1: them too, thirty eight batting average, so he sell him
30:36
Speaker 1: to a really low average, like I said in an
30:38
Speaker 1: eight seventy seven ops pretty high because of the thirteen
30:42
Speaker 1: walks to the forty two strikeouts. It's a lot of walks.
30:44
Speaker 1: And the Yankees have ten home runs often but five
30:47
Speaker 1: of them are Bellinger, so could be some player prop
30:51
Speaker 1: potential there. If you're looking for player props, I recommend
30:54
Speaker 1: hits plus runs plus RBIs instead of total basis because
30:57
Speaker 1: the walks can still get you something. Bellinger is just
31:01
Speaker 1: raked against Wheeler for the most part, six for fifteen
31:04
Speaker 1: with five home runs, but also five strikeouts, But that
31:08
Speaker 1: doesn't mean that he has half of the Yankees home
31:10
Speaker 1: runs against Wheeler. So if Wheeler is able to, you know,
31:13
Speaker 1: kind of pitch around him because it's one bad He's
31:15
Speaker 1: only gonna see that guy so many times. Wheeler may
31:18
Speaker 1: pitch well in this game. Carlos Redon is pitching for
31:21
Speaker 1: the Yankees. He's having a good season three point one R,
31:24
Speaker 1: one point zero five whip. He's been better at home
31:28
Speaker 1: as well, two point eight two ERA at home. But
31:30
Speaker 1: he's been struggling a bit recently. Man he has a
31:32
Speaker 1: four ERA this month. You could argue maybe he was
31:35
Speaker 1: distracted coming out of the All Star Game. He had
31:38
Speaker 1: a lot of walks in that game out of the
31:39
Speaker 1: All Star Break, five walks. He did pitch in the
31:42
Speaker 1: All Star Game, and then he had kind of a
31:44
Speaker 1: bad start against Toronto. But he had a bad start
31:47
Speaker 1: two starts before the All Star Game too, I think
31:49
Speaker 1: before it was announced that he was gonna be in
31:51
Speaker 1: the All Star Game, in the previous start before that.
31:53
Speaker 1: So three of his last four starts he's walked three
31:56
Speaker 1: or more. So his wildness has kind of been there recently,
32:00
Speaker 1: so that's not great. It means his command isn't really
32:02
Speaker 1: there right now. Sixteen to nine strike out walk ratio.
32:05
Speaker 1: This month's Wheeler is obviously the pitcher that's in the
32:08
Speaker 1: much better recent form Radon against Philly does have decent
32:12
Speaker 1: numbers and seventy two at bats, twenty six to three
32:15
Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio very good, two fifty average, and
32:18
Speaker 1: six ninety seven ops, So you could see why, you know,
32:24
Speaker 1: it's a low total here at seven and a half.
32:26
Speaker 1: It looks like the money is coming in on the
32:27
Speaker 1: under sixty percent tickets on the over fifty two percent
32:30
Speaker 1: of the cash on the under. Again, if you do that,
32:32
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily disagree with that sentiment, but I would
32:36
Speaker 1: not want to deal with the bullpens and go full
32:39
Speaker 1: game on this under. I would probably go first five innings.
32:42
Speaker 1: But then if you do that, you're looking at under
32:43
Speaker 1: three and a half, and there is the potential with
32:46
Speaker 1: these offenses like this, especially maybe Philly's offense, to get
32:50
Speaker 1: some runs here and do some damage. So I would
32:53
Speaker 1: worry about that a little bit as well. And Philly
32:55
Speaker 1: is public seventy six percent tickets, only sixty nine percent
32:58
Speaker 1: of the cash, and they're laying a price on the
33:01
Speaker 1: road because you're gonna pay a tax for Wheeler for
33:03
Speaker 1: the most part, up from minus one twenty five to
33:05
Speaker 1: Min's won twenty seven. But it looks like the sentiment
33:08
Speaker 1: from the professional money here is probably that Philly is
33:12
Speaker 1: too much of a favorite as the road team here,
33:14
Speaker 1: which I said that yesterday and it still didn't work out.
33:17
Speaker 1: I'll but you get the Yankees in an even more
33:19
Speaker 1: ridiculous underdog price in this game, and I wouldn't necessarily
33:23
Speaker 1: disagree with it. I mean, I think with the Yankees
33:25
Speaker 1: you probably do get a little bit of a bullpen
33:28
Speaker 1: edge and a hitting edge here, but I think Wheeler
33:30
Speaker 1: does have the starting pitching edge there. So Yankees full
33:33
Speaker 1: game is an underdog, though I don't really disagree with it.
33:37
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay at Cincinnati. I gave up the under in
33:40
Speaker 1: this game. Yes, so it did get there. Cincinnati is
33:42
Speaker 1: on the version of a sweet piers. They've been pretty good,
33:45
Speaker 1: but the bullpens have seen some usage now man in
33:48
Speaker 1: this series, so I worry about the bullpens. They're both
33:50
Speaker 1: okay bullpens, but coming into this last game of the series,
33:54
Speaker 1: I would worry about the bullpens here. The starting pitching
33:57
Speaker 1: matchup actually looks better than you might think. Shane Boss,
34:01
Speaker 1: especially for Tampa. I mean, he doesn't have very good
34:04
Speaker 1: numbers this year four point six to sixty RA, one
34:06
Speaker 1: point three WHIP, but he's been way better on the
34:09
Speaker 1: road two point nine to one R. On the road,
34:11
Speaker 1: I mean he has to pitch in Steinbrenner Field or whatever,
34:14
Speaker 1: Seinberrender Stadium, which is a very hitter friendly park, although
34:18
Speaker 1: so is this great American ballpark, so maybe Boz will
34:21
Speaker 1: also struggle in this ballpark because it is also hitter friendly.
34:24
Speaker 1: But generally he has been a lot better on the
34:26
Speaker 1: road recent numbers. He has a good strike out walk
34:31
Speaker 1: ratio this month twenty five to seven, but he's walked
34:34
Speaker 1: two guys apiece in his last three outings. His last
34:36
Speaker 1: outing yet absolutely bombed for eight runs by the White Sox.
34:41
Speaker 1: That is not a good sign of That was another
34:42
Speaker 1: one of those starts at home, but still it's not
34:45
Speaker 1: a good sign when you get bombed by the White Sox.
34:47
Speaker 1: And he's got a five point seven to ninety RAM
34:49
Speaker 1: this month. But you could argue that maybe that was
34:52
Speaker 1: just an outlier because the other three starts he went
34:54
Speaker 1: at least six innings in each of them, going back
34:57
Speaker 1: to one start prior to that, actually had four starts
34:59
Speaker 1: in row, allowing three or Fourer earned runs, pitched pretty
35:03
Speaker 1: well in those four starts, and when at least six
35:06
Speaker 1: innings in every one of them, so he was pitching
35:09
Speaker 1: well until that Chicago White Sox start. White Sock's terrible
35:13
Speaker 1: offense though, so it is a bad sign. But does
35:15
Speaker 1: that mean Boz is totally out of form now or
35:17
Speaker 1: does it mean it was one bad start. It's tough
35:20
Speaker 1: to figure that. Out Man Tampa has lost his last
35:23
Speaker 1: four starts, though against Cincinnati, he does have good numbers,
35:26
Speaker 1: though it's a small sample size twenty two at bats
35:29
Speaker 1: but seven to one strikeout walk ratio, one to eighty
35:31
Speaker 1: two batting average allowed, and five point thirty six ops,
35:37
Speaker 1: so Boz has not been bad at all against Cincinnati
35:40
Speaker 1: when he has faced them. Brady Singer is pitching for Cincinnati.
35:43
Speaker 1: He has similar numbers to Boz, not great this year,
35:46
Speaker 1: four point eight four ERA, one point three to nine WHIP.
35:50
Speaker 1: He's actually been better at home, even though this is
35:52
Speaker 1: a hitter friendly park, is a lower ra even though
35:55
Speaker 1: he's actually allowed more home runs in the stadium, although
35:57
Speaker 1: he has more innings pitched as well, but his home
35:59
Speaker 1: run rate is still higher in the stadium. But for
36:02
Speaker 1: whatever reason, is e. Ray is a lot lower. Lower
36:05
Speaker 1: opponent batting average significantly too, but at four point oh
36:08
Speaker 1: two homey ram this month, he hasn't been that good
36:11
Speaker 1: either though, though seventeen to six strike at walk ratio
36:14
Speaker 1: looks alright, but seven point five sixty ra is not good.
36:18
Speaker 1: Two of these starts he did not make it past
36:20
Speaker 1: three innings, which is really bad. Including his last start
36:23
Speaker 1: he got absolutely hammered by Washington for seven runs. Not
36:26
Speaker 1: a good offense there in Washington only lasted two and
36:29
Speaker 1: a third prior to three starts. He didn't allow more
36:32
Speaker 1: than three on runs in any of them, though, so
36:34
Speaker 1: it's actually crazy like he and Boz have very similar
36:37
Speaker 1: recent numbers. The Reds have lost four of or five
36:41
Speaker 1: of the last six starts for Singer, I believe is
36:43
Speaker 1: what that is Against Tampa Bay. He actually has good
36:46
Speaker 1: numbers though in thirty seven at bats, they only have
36:49
Speaker 1: six hits off of him, twelve to three strike out
36:51
Speaker 1: walk ratio, one sixty two average, and four to ninety
36:55
Speaker 1: five ops allowed. So Brady's Singer actually has decent matchup
36:58
Speaker 1: numbers as well. So in this game, I actually think
37:02
Speaker 1: the under in the first five innings might have some value. Here.
37:05
Speaker 1: I mean, the oddsmakers threw up a high total of
37:07
Speaker 1: nine and a half here, and it's actually gone up
37:10
Speaker 1: a little bit further. We see sixty eight percent of
37:12
Speaker 1: tickets on the over the cash on the under. I
37:15
Speaker 1: would probably not want to deal with the bullpens, especially
37:17
Speaker 1: after it almost caught me yesterday. Bullpen's in a worst
37:21
Speaker 1: spot here, But these starting pitchers look like, even though
37:24
Speaker 1: their numbers are not good this year, they do have
37:25
Speaker 1: good matchup numbers at the very least. I worry about
37:28
Speaker 1: their recent form though, so I'm certainly not gonna give
37:30
Speaker 1: it out as a play. But if you can get
37:32
Speaker 1: I mean, you can get under in the first five innings,
37:35
Speaker 1: probably even like at an under five, maybe even which
37:38
Speaker 1: seems like a pretty high number. So maybe that is
37:41
Speaker 1: you know, worth like just you know, kind of I
37:44
Speaker 1: don't want to say chasing, but maybe worth like taking
37:46
Speaker 1: a shot on that. Toronto at Detroit. Detroit has been
37:50
Speaker 1: just playing awful baseball. Man. They've lost now six more
37:54
Speaker 1: games in a row, losing again yesterday to Toronto again.
37:58
Speaker 1: I mean, they can't get it right, man. School ball
38:00
Speaker 1: was on the mound and they still couldn't win. School
38:02
Speaker 1: got them six shutout innings that Detroit still couldn't win.
38:05
Speaker 1: Their bullpen was atrocious in the game. The Jays got
38:10
Speaker 1: a good start out of Gouseman, who dueled school Ball
38:13
Speaker 1: into the bullpens there and then that shift of the
38:16
Speaker 1: advantage to Toronto, as I mentioned yesterday, because Toronto did
38:19
Speaker 1: have the bullpen edge in that one. Although I thought
38:22
Speaker 1: school Ball would beat Gousman in the game, so I
38:24
Speaker 1: thought Detroit would probably still win that game, but that
38:26
Speaker 1: did not happen this game. I mean, I still give
38:30
Speaker 1: the bullpen edg to Toronto here. I mean, wasn't a
38:32
Speaker 1: ton of bullpen you suggest today. Toronto does have the
38:35
Speaker 1: better bullpen. They do have a little bit of the
38:37
Speaker 1: better offense right now as well. Shurez is pitching for
38:40
Speaker 1: Toronto here though, and he is certainly an old man
38:43
Speaker 1: right now. He's been okay this year five point one
38:47
Speaker 1: four one point two to five whip, I mean, not
38:49
Speaker 1: great numbers, a little bit better on the road four
38:52
Speaker 1: point nine one ERA. And he hasn't pitched that much
38:54
Speaker 1: yet either. He's made six starts so far. He hasn't
38:57
Speaker 1: allowed a lot of runs. He's allowed three or fewer
39:00
Speaker 1: earned runs in all but one start. Which was his
39:02
Speaker 1: most recent start against the Yankees, or he was still
39:05
Speaker 1: decent enough to hold his team in that game. They
39:08
Speaker 1: lost by one run, but he gave up four earned
39:10
Speaker 1: runs in that one. So he's not really pitching that terribly.
39:13
Speaker 1: He's just not going that deep into some of these games.
39:16
Speaker 1: He's keeping his team in the game at the very least.
39:19
Speaker 1: He has a sixteen to five strike a walk ratio
39:21
Speaker 1: this month, which isn't that bad. Good numbers against Detroit
39:24
Speaker 1: in his career forty two at bats fourteen to two
39:27
Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio, one sixty seven average, allowed five
39:30
Speaker 1: to fourteen ops. But again, Shurezer is worse this year
39:34
Speaker 1: than he has been really at any other point in
39:36
Speaker 1: his career. I mean, it happens fast man when you're old,
39:39
Speaker 1: So he might just not quite have it anymore. So
39:41
Speaker 1: I would take these numbers matchup wise with a little
39:44
Speaker 1: bit of a grain of salt there for that reason.
39:46
Speaker 1: He might still do well though, I mean, he hasn't
39:48
Speaker 1: been awful this year. Jack Flaherty is pitching for Detroit,
39:52
Speaker 1: and he's been more unpredictable than sures are. Jack Flaherty's
39:56
Speaker 1: more of a roller coaster man. He can have some
39:58
Speaker 1: really bad starts and some real good starts. He has
40:01
Speaker 1: a four point seven to seven ERA one point two
40:03
Speaker 1: nine whip. I mean, that's not good when you're on
40:05
Speaker 1: a team that wins as much as Detroit has been winning.
40:08
Speaker 1: Having a five and ten record isn't good either. He's
40:11
Speaker 1: been good at home though, three point seven to one
40:13
Speaker 1: ERA season, way better at home than he has been
40:16
Speaker 1: on the road. But he hasn't really been that good
40:18
Speaker 1: this month. I mean he's not going deep into these starts, man.
40:21
Speaker 1: He's only gone more than five innings once. His team
40:25
Speaker 1: has lost six of his last seven starts. He has
40:27
Speaker 1: a four point six six ERA this month. Thirty to
40:32
Speaker 1: eight strikeout walk ratio is good though, so his strikeout
40:35
Speaker 1: walk ratio is good. He does have good numbers against
40:37
Speaker 1: Toronto to in a pretty big sixty five at bat
40:40
Speaker 1: sample size, twenty three to six strike out walk ratio,
40:43
Speaker 1: It's nine batting average allowed in four to eighty six ops,
40:46
Speaker 1: so Flaherty actually has some good matchup numbers. Two. So
40:50
Speaker 1: in this game, I'm almost thinking an under makes sense
40:54
Speaker 1: in this game, man, it's sitting at eight and a half.
40:56
Speaker 1: We have sixty six percent tickets on the over and
40:59
Speaker 1: sixty two percent of the cash and the over, so
41:01
Speaker 1: it looks like maybe a little bit of the money
41:02
Speaker 1: is on the under there. Detroit has moved up for
41:05
Speaker 1: minus one to fifteen to minus one twenty seven, So
41:07
Speaker 1: the money is actually coming in on Detroit to finally
41:10
Speaker 1: break their lost streak here, and they will be motivated
41:13
Speaker 1: at the very least to try to do that and
41:15
Speaker 1: to try to avoid another sweep here. Sixty six percent
41:18
Speaker 1: of tickets on Toronto. Toronto's definitely a hot commodity right now,
41:21
Speaker 1: so you know the public is gonna want to come
41:23
Speaker 1: in on that side. Fifty nine percent of the cash
41:25
Speaker 1: on Detroit though, But I worry a little bit about it.
41:27
Speaker 1: I worry a little bit about backing Jack Flaherty just
41:30
Speaker 1: in general. But maybe he does have the upper hand
41:33
Speaker 1: over shres Or just because he is younger still and
41:36
Speaker 1: Detroit is still pretty good at home. It's just you're
41:39
Speaker 1: having to fade some real significant streaks there if you
41:42
Speaker 1: want Detroit there. I don't necessarily disagree with that, but
41:45
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna stay away from it. Jay Maine, what's
41:48
Speaker 1: up man? A picture for your fantasy team? You have
41:50
Speaker 1: Irvin Ginn Gomber Elder Kohlik and Hendrix. Holy crap, those
41:56
Speaker 1: are those are some bad pictures, man, Holy crap. Well,
42:01
Speaker 1: I've only talked about Gomber so far, so if you
42:03
Speaker 1: want to hang around, I'm gonna show you all of
42:05
Speaker 1: their matchup numbers within the next I'm gonna try to
42:08
Speaker 1: get this done within about another half hour, So if
42:10
Speaker 1: you can wait around for that, these are bad pictures, man,
42:13
Speaker 1: I did already talk about Gomber. I would not go
42:18
Speaker 1: with Gomber. Let's just say that. I mean, there's a
42:20
Speaker 1: high total in that game. Yeah, Gomber, As I pointed
42:24
Speaker 1: out a little while ago, he is at least better
42:26
Speaker 1: on the road than he is at home. I believe
42:28
Speaker 1: Baltimore doesn't have a whole lot of history against him,
42:31
Speaker 1: so maybe he has a little bit of an advantage
42:33
Speaker 1: for that reason. But I would not I would not
42:35
Speaker 1: want him. Oh thank you, sir. If that means you're subbing,
42:40
Speaker 1: I appreciate it. Man. All right, let's go to Chicago.
42:44
Speaker 1: Chicago here, man, I mean, the White Sox blew out
42:48
Speaker 1: the Cubs in the first game and then lost yesterday
42:50
Speaker 1: six to one, so the Cubs got a little bit
42:52
Speaker 1: of revenge there. As far as the bullpen usage. The
42:56
Speaker 1: White Sox I believe used a lot of their pen yesterday. Yeah,
42:58
Speaker 1: they did, so the bullpen usage and just the bullpen's
43:03
Speaker 1: in general, I mean, all of that is in favor
43:05
Speaker 1: of the Cubs here. Cubs have the better bullpen, and
43:07
Speaker 1: the bullpen that's a little bit less tax. The Cubs
43:10
Speaker 1: are going with Ben Brown here, and he's a guy
43:12
Speaker 1: who I keep saying is better than his numbers look
43:14
Speaker 1: right now. At some point he has enough talent that
43:17
Speaker 1: at some point I think he's gonna turn this around.
43:19
Speaker 1: But his numbers are really bad right now. Six point
43:21
Speaker 1: four to eighty RA, one point five to four WHIP.
43:25
Speaker 1: He's an even worse on the road six point eight ERA.
43:29
Speaker 1: Not pitching well recently either, giving up fourteen runs over
43:32
Speaker 1: his last two starts and nine innings pitched, including getting
43:35
Speaker 1: absolutely wrecked in his last start by Kansas City, who's
43:38
Speaker 1: one of the worst offenses in the league. That's pretty bad.
43:41
Speaker 1: He's allowed six earned runs or more in three of
43:43
Speaker 1: his last four starts. So yeah, I mean, I don't
43:47
Speaker 1: know if Ben Brown is really backable at all right now,
43:50
Speaker 1: though his strikeout walk rate continues to be good, four
43:53
Speaker 1: strikeouts and no walks in that outing against Kansas City,
43:56
Speaker 1: but that was still a really bad outing. I mean,
43:58
Speaker 1: you'll allow seven runs earned to Kansas City, there's definitely
44:02
Speaker 1: something wrong with you if you do that. The White
44:04
Speaker 1: Sox are also a really bad lineup, so he should,
44:08
Speaker 1: in theory, be able to pitch well against them, and
44:10
Speaker 1: they haven't seen him before. Only Michael Taylor has seen
44:13
Speaker 1: him before. He's zero for one with a strikeout, So
44:15
Speaker 1: Brown has an unfamiliarity edge here too. So when the
44:18
Speaker 1: White Sox, you know, already a bad offense, they haven't
44:21
Speaker 1: seen the supposing pitcher before, it should be an advantage
44:24
Speaker 1: to the pitcher. But Ben Brown is just pitching so
44:27
Speaker 1: poorly recently, I don't know if we could back him.
44:29
Speaker 1: Grant Taylor is listed as the starter for the White
44:32
Speaker 1: Sox and he's a young guy. I mean, he has
44:35
Speaker 1: decent numbers this year three point nine to three ERA,
44:37
Speaker 1: one point one to five, whip, pretty good, three eer
44:40
Speaker 1: at home, probably miss. He's a relief pitcher man, so
44:43
Speaker 1: he's coming into this game. He's gonna be an opener, dude.
44:47
Speaker 1: So even though he has been good out of the bullpen,
44:48
Speaker 1: and the White Sox have actually won most of the
44:51
Speaker 1: games that he's pitched in out of the bullpen, which
44:54
Speaker 1: is interesting because you know a lot of times he's
44:56
Speaker 1: gonna be probably coming in when the White Sox, you know,
44:59
Speaker 1: when the starter has already set them back a little bit.
45:02
Speaker 1: I think I guess they use him in games where
45:04
Speaker 1: they're actually winning or close for the most part. But
45:08
Speaker 1: I don't know what we're gonna get out of him here,
45:10
Speaker 1: because he's only gonna be an opener here, So you're
45:12
Speaker 1: probably gonna only gonna get one to two innings out
45:15
Speaker 1: of Grant Taylor here, and then you're gonna get an
45:17
Speaker 1: already used up White Sox bullpen that already isn't good
45:20
Speaker 1: pitching seven innings in this game or maybe more. I mean,
45:24
Speaker 1: that doesn't seem good to me at all, so I
45:28
Speaker 1: mean I would probably lean. Honestly, I think it over
45:31
Speaker 1: makes sense of this game, I mean, and I mean
45:35
Speaker 1: the series has had some high scoring games. The money
45:37
Speaker 1: is completely disagreeing with me, though I don't know what
45:39
Speaker 1: is going on with the market here. The totals flip
45:41
Speaker 1: from eight and a half juice to the over to
45:43
Speaker 1: eight and a half juice to the under seventy eight
45:46
Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the over public on the over here,
45:48
Speaker 1: eighty two percent of the cash on the under I
45:51
Speaker 1: don't think I would want to take that risk. And
45:53
Speaker 1: the line is completely plummeted on the Cubs, down from
45:56
Speaker 1: minus two hundred to minus one to fifty seven. I
46:00
Speaker 1: don't understand why that's the case, because you think that
46:02
Speaker 1: if the White Sox switch their starter and then announce, oh,
46:05
Speaker 1: we're going with a bullpen game, why wouldn't the Cubs
46:07
Speaker 1: be a heavier favor if that was the case. I
46:10
Speaker 1: don't get it. I don't understand why the line has
46:12
Speaker 1: moved like this. Eighty four percent of tickets on the Cubs.
46:15
Speaker 1: I mean, that makes sense to me. Obviously the Cubs
46:17
Speaker 1: are gonna be the public team. Seventy four percent of
46:20
Speaker 1: the cash on the Cubs, so less of the cash.
46:23
Speaker 1: So the market read is saying take the White Sox
46:27
Speaker 1: as an underdog here. I would not do that. I mean,
46:29
Speaker 1: with the White Sox again with a bullpend game. No
46:32
Speaker 1: thank you on that one. Oh thank you sir. You
46:35
Speaker 1: already picked up Ben Brown. I don't mind that, but
46:38
Speaker 1: I mean I don't think he's playable right now. Yeah, yeah,
46:42
Speaker 1: I see it as well. Yeah, you like the Cubs
46:45
Speaker 1: as well. I mean I expect the Cubs to still
46:47
Speaker 1: win that game. I mean, I don't really see it.
46:49
Speaker 1: Although when it's a big favorite like that, professional money
46:52
Speaker 1: is gonna partially come in on the underdog like that,
46:55
Speaker 1: saying we just think that there's value and that there's
46:57
Speaker 1: more of a chance that they're gonna win this game
46:59
Speaker 1: than with the odds are telling you. So really you're saying,
47:02
Speaker 1: we only think the White Sox are gonna have like
47:04
Speaker 1: a forty five percent chance to win this game, although
47:07
Speaker 1: even that seems too high to me. Yankees took some
47:10
Speaker 1: money y I talked about that as well. Yeah, I
47:12
Speaker 1: mean they've taken some money. I definitely agree with that.
47:16
Speaker 1: Maybe a slight lean to the Yankees their full game.
47:19
Speaker 1: I don't think they have the advantage in the starting
47:21
Speaker 1: pitching matchup though, but later in the game, I think
47:23
Speaker 1: they advantage shifts to the Yankees. Cleveland at Kansas City
47:26
Speaker 1: is the other game that I was going to potentially
47:29
Speaker 1: give out a first five inning under on this. I
47:31
Speaker 1: do lean that way in this game. I mean, first
47:33
Speaker 1: of all, you have two really bad offenses, so that's
47:36
Speaker 1: certainly somebody to keep in mind. I wouldn't want anything
47:39
Speaker 1: to do with the bullpens because these seems to play
47:41
Speaker 1: a doubleheader yesterday. Kansas City's bullpen is all right, Cleveland's, yeah,
47:45
Speaker 1: I mean barely mediocre, I guess, but with the bullpens
47:49
Speaker 1: having pitched in two games yesterday, I would not want
47:51
Speaker 1: to deal with the bullpens in this game today unless
47:54
Speaker 1: I was going over obviously, and then you're fading the bullpens.
47:57
Speaker 1: But under first five innings, I think is the right
48:00
Speaker 1: way to look at this game. Joey Cantillo is kind
48:03
Speaker 1: of the question mark though, and he's really the reason
48:05
Speaker 1: why I didn't want to actually give it out as
48:06
Speaker 1: a play, because I think he's a little bit unpredictable.
48:10
Speaker 1: Three point nine to one ERA pretty good this year.
48:12
Speaker 1: One point four to one whip is not that good though.
48:15
Speaker 1: He's been pretty good on the road three point one
48:17
Speaker 1: to two ERA, but he's been in the bullpen and
48:20
Speaker 1: then they just moved him to the starting role and
48:22
Speaker 1: they've done well behind him. They've won his last three games,
48:25
Speaker 1: which I think we're all games that he started. He's
48:27
Speaker 1: not going very deep into these games. He's gone at
48:29
Speaker 1: most five and a third innings, but he is pitching
48:32
Speaker 1: pretty much successfully. He hasn't a lot more than four
48:34
Speaker 1: and runs in any of those starts. But his walk
48:37
Speaker 1: number is pretty high though, so I worry about that
48:40
Speaker 1: this month seventeen to two thirds innings pitched, ten walks.
48:43
Speaker 1: That is way too high, even though he has a
48:45
Speaker 1: high strikeout rate twenty three strikeouts, So Cantillo is striking
48:49
Speaker 1: out a lot of guys. He's got to get this
48:51
Speaker 1: wildness down, man. And that is the one thing that
48:53
Speaker 1: really worries me about taking the under in the first
48:56
Speaker 1: five innings here, But I that is still the way
48:58
Speaker 1: that I would go in this game. I was gonna
49:00
Speaker 1: play this Kittio four point eighty RA this month. That's
49:03
Speaker 1: not that bad. He's faced a couple of week offenses
49:06
Speaker 1: the last couple of times out White Sox Baltimore, Baltimore
49:09
Speaker 1: being the only home game, although like I said, he's
49:12
Speaker 1: actually been better on the road, and he was he's
49:13
Speaker 1: on the road here too, but he is facing another
49:16
Speaker 1: really weak offense here in Kansas City, and he has
49:19
Speaker 1: done well against them in a very small sample size.
49:22
Speaker 1: I think Kansas City has faced him when he's come
49:23
Speaker 1: out of the bullpen thirteen at bats a two thirty
49:26
Speaker 1: one average five ninety three oh ps, so Kansas City's
49:29
Speaker 1: hitters haven't hit him well when they have seen him,
49:32
Speaker 1: So Katio looks like he does have a little bit
49:34
Speaker 1: of a match up edge there. And Noah Cameron, I mean,
49:37
Speaker 1: I like this guy quite a bit, so, I mean
49:39
Speaker 1: he's he's the guy that I definitely don't have a
49:41
Speaker 1: problem with. As far as taking the under in the
49:43
Speaker 1: first five innings, he would be the main reason to
49:45
Speaker 1: do it. He's been quite good in his rookie season
49:48
Speaker 1: so far. Two point six one ERA, one point oh
49:51
Speaker 1: one WHIP. He's pitching really well right now. He's been
49:55
Speaker 1: a little bit worse at home though, three point twenty
49:57
Speaker 1: ninety r AL, though that is still good. This month,
50:00
Speaker 1: he has a really nice looking twenty seven to four
50:03
Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio two point two two ERA. He's gone
50:06
Speaker 1: at least six innings in his last three starts, allowing
50:08
Speaker 1: four or fewer earned runs in all three, and his
50:11
Speaker 1: team has won all three, which is really saying something
50:14
Speaker 1: for the Royals because they don't score and he actually
50:19
Speaker 1: was able to do that. Two of those games were
50:21
Speaker 1: against the Mets and the Cubs, so he was facing
50:23
Speaker 1: some pretty good offenses there. Still pitching successfully, and now
50:27
Speaker 1: he's facing a much worse Cleveland offense, and it's an
50:30
Speaker 1: offense that has never faced him before. So I think
50:33
Speaker 1: Noah Cameron does have the upper hand here against the
50:35
Speaker 1: Cleveland offense. He's a talented young pitcherman who has not
50:39
Speaker 1: been seen before by the opposing hitters. The opposing hitters
50:42
Speaker 1: gonna have to take some time to figure him out.
50:44
Speaker 1: So I like both starting pitchers here, and they are
50:46
Speaker 1: both lefties two, which I'd have to look up what
50:49
Speaker 1: both offenses do against lefties. I would imagine it's not good.
50:52
Speaker 1: So first five inning under is the way that I
50:55
Speaker 1: look at this game. The totals down on the full
50:57
Speaker 1: game from nine to eight and a half here, see
51:00
Speaker 1: two percent of tickets on the over, sixty nine percent
51:02
Speaker 1: of the cash on the under. Though, I think you'd
51:04
Speaker 1: still find an under four in the first five innings,
51:06
Speaker 1: and that is what I would do. I don't want
51:08
Speaker 1: to deal with the bullpens. Money looks like it's coming
51:10
Speaker 1: in on Cleveland a little bit. Sixty one percent of tickets,
51:13
Speaker 1: seventy five percent of the cash. Kansas City down for
51:15
Speaker 1: might is one thirty five to just one twenty eight.
51:18
Speaker 1: I don't see that. I don't really agree with that.
51:20
Speaker 1: I mean, Kansas City, they do still have the better
51:22
Speaker 1: of the two bullpens, and I think they have the
51:24
Speaker 1: better starter here. I mean, Cleveland does have the better offense,
51:27
Speaker 1: but both offenses are very bad, so I don't really
51:30
Speaker 1: understand the market move on that. I mean, I would
51:33
Speaker 1: probably be leaning towards Kansas City, but I think under
51:35
Speaker 1: first five is the better way you want to go
51:39
Speaker 1: with Gin today. We'll talk about him in a minute.
51:41
Speaker 1: I mean, Gin is hard to predict, man, I would
51:44
Speaker 1: say in today's game, particularly Sunday Funday Funday Sunday, Nancy,
51:51
Speaker 1: what's up? Thanks for hanging out, Nancy? Did you get
51:53
Speaker 1: the gimp mask? I forgot to. I forgot to. Look,
51:57
Speaker 1: I was gonna send you like tracking in for something,
51:59
Speaker 1: but I'm an idiot and it completely slipped my mind.
52:03
Speaker 1: Miami Milwaukee, as I have in the title here, that's
52:06
Speaker 1: gonna be the game that I'm gonna actually have a
52:07
Speaker 1: play on. You already know what it is, probably, so
52:09
Speaker 1: I'll get back to that. Let's talk about j T.
52:12
Speaker 1: Gin all your pitchers were talking about in these later games. Man,
52:16
Speaker 1: you didn't get it yet, all right? I gotta check
52:17
Speaker 1: on that A's Houston. Houston, they're just you know, they're
52:25
Speaker 1: on a three game slide right now, and they've lost
52:27
Speaker 1: all three games in the series, which is not something
52:30
Speaker 1: you would expect, especially losing yesterday. With Hunter Brown on
52:33
Speaker 1: the mound. He didn't do that badly. He only gave
52:36
Speaker 1: one run, I think, but he was really inefficient with
52:40
Speaker 1: his pitches, and he only lasted five innings, and the
52:42
Speaker 1: bullpen actually blew the game for Houston, even though Houston
52:46
Speaker 1: has the better bullpen over the A's, which I think
52:49
Speaker 1: is still the case even given the you know whatever,
52:52
Speaker 1: the rest scenarios for the bullpens, I would still give
52:54
Speaker 1: Houston the bullpen edge. Here. Houston might come out a
52:57
Speaker 1: bit pissed off here man trying to avoid getting swept
53:00
Speaker 1: by the last place team in the Al West. Here. JT.
53:05
Speaker 1: Ginn is pitching, as we just mentioned, what are we
53:08
Speaker 1: gonna get out of him? I don't know. Four point
53:11
Speaker 1: five r M the season, one point two to nine whip.
53:14
Speaker 1: He's been better on the road, three point eight six
53:17
Speaker 1: e r M the road, and he's given up only
53:19
Speaker 1: two of the nine home runs that he's allowed this
53:21
Speaker 1: year on the road. He's been giving up home runs
53:24
Speaker 1: in that ridiculous Triple A stadium that the A is playing,
53:27
Speaker 1: so so he is better away from that horrible A stadium,
53:32
Speaker 1: So you might want to think about maybe playing Gain today.
53:35
Speaker 1: I don't know. He's basically only made like one full
53:39
Speaker 1: start though, which was his most recent outing. He went
53:42
Speaker 1: five innings along one run against Texas. He doesn't strike
53:45
Speaker 1: a lot of guys out, but that was a successful
53:47
Speaker 1: start at least, but it was against a weak lineup.
53:49
Speaker 1: Houston's lineup is a little bit better than that. Last
53:51
Speaker 1: time he faced Houston, he didn't do well. He actually
53:54
Speaker 1: faced them two games in a row, though, I believe
53:56
Speaker 1: out of the bullpen, and Houston got two runs off
54:00
Speaker 1: him in one and two thirds innings the second time out.
54:02
Speaker 1: But Houston had just seen him, So maybe that was
54:04
Speaker 1: a case where after Houston had just seen him, they
54:07
Speaker 1: were just more familiar with them and they beat him
54:08
Speaker 1: up that next time, because the other time he faced them,
54:11
Speaker 1: he went three innings and only allowed one hit and
54:13
Speaker 1: no runs. Has struck out five, so he was good
54:15
Speaker 1: in that one. Overall against Houston, he has good numbers,
54:19
Speaker 1: but it's a very small ten at bat sample size.
54:22
Speaker 1: Houston only has one hit off of him, So whatever
54:26
Speaker 1: that other hit was that Houston got against him in
54:28
Speaker 1: that other game that Houston had against her, whoever that
54:31
Speaker 1: it was for Houston is not in the lineup right now.
54:34
Speaker 1: Houston has some injuries right now, man, so that's also
54:38
Speaker 1: something to keep in mind with gin. Houston has some
54:41
Speaker 1: offensive injuries here, so and whoever's injured for Houston, they're
54:45
Speaker 1: not listing on this batle versus pitcher stats thing here,
54:49
Speaker 1: So I don't even know, but there are at least
54:51
Speaker 1: a couple of starters the players that typically start for Houston,
54:55
Speaker 1: I think out with injury right now, but one for
54:58
Speaker 1: ten against GINN. Houston's current lineup here in a very
55:01
Speaker 1: low two eighty two ops. But it's such a small
55:04
Speaker 1: sample size. I don't know what there is to really
55:07
Speaker 1: take away from that. On Adams Twins, no Buxton, Buxton
55:14
Speaker 1: has hurt. I didn't even know that. You've been on
55:16
Speaker 1: Ozzie's death. Yeah, I mean it was we predicted it
55:19
Speaker 1: when it was a Black Sabbath Last Show Man versus
55:24
Speaker 1: Righty's I can I can look well, Gin is a lefty,
55:26
Speaker 1: isn't he? Let me say, I would have to pull
55:30
Speaker 1: that up. Actually, hold on, I can look at that
55:32
Speaker 1: if you want. Gen is a lefty, right I think, No,
55:34
Speaker 1: he is a righty. Why was I thinking he was
55:36
Speaker 1: a lefty? He is a righty. I mean hitting versus righty's.
55:41
Speaker 1: Hold on, let me see astros versus right handed pitching.
55:49
Speaker 1: I'm pulling it up on stat muse here. But let
55:51
Speaker 1: me say this year they are, uh, Houston two fifty
55:56
Speaker 1: seven batting average against righty seven eighteen ops. I mean, okay,
56:02
Speaker 1: numbers in this day and age Houston against righty's not
56:05
Speaker 1: anything like spectacular, not anything bad. So, and then Colton
56:09
Speaker 1: Gordon is pitching for Houston here. He hasn't been that good.
56:12
Speaker 1: Four point five to three ERA, one point four to
56:15
Speaker 1: four whip, pretty bad at home, four point seven eight
56:19
Speaker 1: ERA at home. Yeah, I mean this month, Uh, he
56:24
Speaker 1: did have one short appearance against Texas, which I don't
56:27
Speaker 1: know what that was about. His other three starts, He's
56:28
Speaker 1: not going that deep into most of these games. He's
56:30
Speaker 1: going about between five and six innings. But this month
56:34
Speaker 1: five point eight two ERA, ten to six strike a
56:36
Speaker 1: walk ratio that's not good. He's not striking out a
56:39
Speaker 1: lot of guys. He's a lot twenty four hits in
56:40
Speaker 1: seventeen innings. That's not good either. His numbers against the
56:44
Speaker 1: A's are fairly good though, in seventeen at bats two
56:47
Speaker 1: thirty five average six forty seven oh ps, and he
56:50
Speaker 1: hasn't walked anybody, so he does have decent matchup numbers
56:53
Speaker 1: against the A's. But Gordon doesn't seem like he's very
56:56
Speaker 1: trustworthy here, so I don't know if this is really
56:58
Speaker 1: a spot where Houston's actually gonna be able to get
57:01
Speaker 1: it done and avoid the sweep. Although if the game
57:03
Speaker 1: is close getting into the later portions of the game,
57:06
Speaker 1: Houston does have the edge once it gets to the
57:08
Speaker 1: bullpens in my opinion and probably in everybody's opinion, because
57:11
Speaker 1: the A's bullpend is the worst in baseball. Houston down
57:15
Speaker 1: for minus one thirty five, minus one thirty one. Those
57:17
Speaker 1: sixty six percent of tickets but eighty two percent of
57:19
Speaker 1: the cash on Houston, so they are taking some of
57:22
Speaker 1: the cash, but starting pitching wise, I'm I'm not sure, man.
57:26
Speaker 1: I mean, I think Gin could outpitch Gordon potentially. It's
57:30
Speaker 1: very difficult to say what we're gonna get in this game.
57:35
Speaker 1: Sixty K rate point ninety sixt er. So wait, you're
57:39
Speaker 1: looking up their numbers as well, last seven. Hold on,
57:41
Speaker 1: I'm looking at stat muse because I have I do
57:45
Speaker 1: have a subscription to stat mus. Astros versus right handed
57:49
Speaker 1: pitching last seven games. Stat muse gives you the last five.
57:57
Speaker 1: Last five, they have a two fifty eight average, six
57:59
Speaker 1: to fifty fours, twenty three strikeouts in nine to nine
58:03
Speaker 1: played appearances. That's astros versus right hand and pitching in
58:08
Speaker 1: their last five. It looks like so, I don't know,
58:15
Speaker 1: you want the A's money line. I would only do
58:18
Speaker 1: it in the first five innings, though, I mean I
58:19
Speaker 1: would not want any part of their bullpen. Man, That's
58:22
Speaker 1: that would be my opinion. There, Washington, your boy Jake
58:25
Speaker 1: Irving against Minnesota. Here, Minnesota beat Washington in the return
58:30
Speaker 1: home spot, which kind of surprising, and then surprisingly again
58:33
Speaker 1: Minnesota lost with Joe Ryan on the mound, he gave
58:37
Speaker 1: up like four runs and they lost the game, which
58:39
Speaker 1: is not something I expected. I don't like either of
58:42
Speaker 1: these bullpens, and that might be a problem here for
58:45
Speaker 1: Minnesota because they don't even have a picture that they've
58:47
Speaker 1: decided on. So I don't know who's gonna start. I
58:50
Speaker 1: don't know if maybe Festa is gonna come in and
58:52
Speaker 1: start from them again. I don't know what the rotation
58:54
Speaker 1: looks like right now, but they might be going with
58:56
Speaker 1: a bullpend game here. If they do so, Minnesota and
58:59
Speaker 1: They're hasn't been that good this year either. I mean,
59:01
Speaker 1: Washington has been worse. Washington's bullpen is terrible. But if
59:05
Speaker 1: Minnesota is going with a bullpen game and Washington's bullpen
59:09
Speaker 1: also sucks, and I don't really like Jake Irvin either,
59:11
Speaker 1: I'm leaning towards an over in this game, man, even
59:14
Speaker 1: though both offenses aren't really that spectacular. Here's Jake Irvin
59:18
Speaker 1: for you, a four point eight one ERA, one point
59:20
Speaker 1: three to three whip on the season, five point three
59:23
Speaker 1: to four road ERA, so he's worse on the road.
59:26
Speaker 1: He's been pretty bad this month, with a thirteen to
59:28
Speaker 1: eleven strikeout walk ratio at least three walks and four
59:32
Speaker 1: of his last five starts. He is out of control
59:34
Speaker 1: right now, dude, Irvin. He's not pitching well at all.
59:38
Speaker 1: His command numbers have been really bad recently, five point
59:41
Speaker 1: two to three ERA this month. I would not trust
59:43
Speaker 1: Irvin coming into this game at all. Minnesota has eighteen
59:48
Speaker 1: at bats against him. They have a four to forty
59:50
Speaker 1: four average, And this is a Buxton is listed in here, though,
59:53
Speaker 1: is he actually not playing today? Because ESPN, if there's
59:55
Speaker 1: an injury, they actually do take the guys out of
59:58
Speaker 1: the lineup card here, so I don't know. Buckston is
1:00:02
Speaker 1: listed there, but at any rate, including him, he's won
1:00:06
Speaker 1: for three off Vervin with no extra base hits. But
1:00:09
Speaker 1: Irvin has a lot of four to forty four average
1:00:11
Speaker 1: one and eighty five ops to Minnesota's hitters. Even if
1:00:16
Speaker 1: you take Buckston out, the numbers is still pretty much
1:00:18
Speaker 1: the same. Oh yeah, a's money line. You said, sands
1:00:24
Speaker 1: On on DraftKings. I'm not sure exactly what you mean.
1:00:27
Speaker 1: But okay Adams, wait, I'm not sure what you what
1:00:32
Speaker 1: you mean. And Jay Mane I don't do as much
1:00:34
Speaker 1: with props, so oh so maybe they're giving Buckston rest
1:00:39
Speaker 1: or something. I don't know because ESPN does it based
1:00:41
Speaker 1: off of their active roster basically. But to me, I
1:00:46
Speaker 1: would go over in this game, even with Buckston not
1:00:48
Speaker 1: in the lineup. I think over is the way to
1:00:50
Speaker 1: go in this game. It's already flipped from nine and
1:00:52
Speaker 1: a half juice to the under nine and a half
1:00:53
Speaker 1: juice to the over. So that's some indicator there. I
1:00:57
Speaker 1: don't really see the percentages yet here, and oh it's sad.
1:01:00
Speaker 1: Oh there, you're right, you're right. Cole Sands is pitching
1:01:03
Speaker 1: from Minnesota, so we can look at him. I guess
1:01:06
Speaker 1: Minnesota is down from minus one eighty to minus one
1:01:08
Speaker 1: fifty seven. Some of that move is probably because of
1:01:10
Speaker 1: the starting pitcher announcement, but it does look like Minnesota
1:01:14
Speaker 1: is the public side seventy three percent of tickets, only
1:01:17
Speaker 1: fifty three percent of the cash, so it does look
1:01:19
Speaker 1: like Washington. It's kind of an anti public side there.
1:01:23
Speaker 1: If I did Washington, though, I'd probably limited to first
1:01:26
Speaker 1: five innings because I just really don't want any part
1:01:29
Speaker 1: of Washington's bullpen. Let's look at Cole Sands here real quick.
1:01:32
Speaker 1: Thanks for pointing that out, man, I just saw him there.
1:01:36
Speaker 1: He is Cole Sands. I mean, he's a relief pitcher.
1:01:39
Speaker 1: It looks like four point twenty nine y R one
1:01:41
Speaker 1: point two four whip. Not very impressive similar road home
1:01:46
Speaker 1: road split doesn't really matter, yes, so right, so it's
1:01:48
Speaker 1: gonna be a bullpen game, so he's probably gonna go
1:01:51
Speaker 1: one or two innings in this game. So Minnesota, their
1:01:53
Speaker 1: bullpen already not doing that well. Doesn't look that good
1:01:57
Speaker 1: to me, man, Sands probably only gonna pitch a little
1:02:00
Speaker 1: bit in that game. I mean, I guess we can
1:02:02
Speaker 1: look at his batter versus pitcher stats here Washington, only
1:02:06
Speaker 1: his two hitters was seen him before Low has a
1:02:08
Speaker 1: hit offf him. They're one for three two walks as well.
1:02:12
Speaker 1: DeJong and Low both have a walk against him three
1:02:14
Speaker 1: thirty three average nine thirty three. Ohps again, I mean,
1:02:19
Speaker 1: I still my opinion is the over is the way
1:02:21
Speaker 1: to go in that game though, Yeah, the Twins game,
1:02:26
Speaker 1: Yeah right, so yeah, so SAMs yeah is the starter there? Yes?
1:02:30
Speaker 1: And excuse me, San Diego Saint Louis. Saint Louis won
1:02:35
Speaker 1: the first two games of this years and then lost yesterday,
1:02:38
Speaker 1: which I'm pretty surprised, man, I can't figure any of
1:02:41
Speaker 1: this out now. Vasquez for the Padres yesterday against Libratory,
1:02:46
Speaker 1: neither pitcher even made it five innings in the game,
1:02:48
Speaker 1: and then the Padres wound up winning, partially because their
1:02:51
Speaker 1: bullpen is the better bullpen. They use some of their
1:02:53
Speaker 1: better relievers yesterday. But I mean, I still probably give
1:02:57
Speaker 1: the bullpen. Heag to San Diego a little bit in
1:02:59
Speaker 1: this game, though both bullpen usage both teams bullpen usage
1:03:02
Speaker 1: is pretty similar. But I don't like Stephen colek Man
1:03:06
Speaker 1: for the Padres. Four point two EIGHTYRA, one point three
1:03:09
Speaker 1: to two whip. I mean, alright. He has actually been
1:03:11
Speaker 1: way better on the road though, two point three to
1:03:13
Speaker 1: five R in the road, which makes no sense because
1:03:16
Speaker 1: San Diego is a pitcher friendly park and his ERA
1:03:18
Speaker 1: is over nine at home. I can't figure out colec
1:03:21
Speaker 1: at all, man. I don't think he's good though this month.
1:03:25
Speaker 1: His numbers were pretty bad. Seven point three six ERA
1:03:28
Speaker 1: and two starts this month seven to two strike out
1:03:30
Speaker 1: walk ratio. I'm nothing really spectacular here. He's not going
1:03:34
Speaker 1: very deep into games. The Padres have lost his last
1:03:37
Speaker 1: seven starts. Padres have been struggling for a while now, man,
1:03:41
Speaker 1: since they started off really hot at the beginning of
1:03:43
Speaker 1: the season. They're actually a below five hundred team, and
1:03:45
Speaker 1: they're below five hundred on the road as well. Uh,
1:03:48
Speaker 1: coal like against the Cardinals. Not good, but it's only
1:03:51
Speaker 1: seven at bats. It's a very small sample size, but
1:03:54
Speaker 1: they have a four to twenty nine average and nine
1:03:55
Speaker 1: to twenty nine ohps with no extra base hits, one walk.
1:03:59
Speaker 1: So I don't really think you could trust Kolek in
1:04:02
Speaker 1: this game, man. I probably prefer McGreevy. The Cardinals starter here,
1:04:07
Speaker 1: does have good numbers this year and what I think
1:04:09
Speaker 1: is his rookie year. Maybe let me see, well kind of.
1:04:14
Speaker 1: He made three starts for the Cardinals last year, a
1:04:16
Speaker 1: three point four to nine ERA one point zero two whip.
1:04:20
Speaker 1: McGreevy worse at home though, four point nine to sixty
1:04:23
Speaker 1: RA at home, so he's struggled more at home. Did
1:04:26
Speaker 1: have a decent outing of course field last time out
1:04:28
Speaker 1: seven innings, a lining one in run, but he only
1:04:30
Speaker 1: had one strikeout. He didn't walk anybody, so he's not
1:04:33
Speaker 1: walking a lot of guys. His strikeout rate is low,
1:04:36
Speaker 1: but his walk rate is also very low, so he's
1:04:38
Speaker 1: not walking a lot of guys, he's not striking out
1:04:40
Speaker 1: a lot of guys, and he's not giving up a
1:04:41
Speaker 1: lot of hits. So overall, he is pitching pretty effectively
1:04:45
Speaker 1: though this year, and his team has won his last
1:04:47
Speaker 1: three starts. And San Diego, whose offense has actually been
1:04:51
Speaker 1: struggling for quite a while now, has never seen mcgrievy before,
1:04:54
Speaker 1: so McGreevy might have a little bit of an extra
1:04:56
Speaker 1: advantage there again because the Padres have actually never faced
1:04:59
Speaker 1: him before, so I'm probably gonna be leaning first five innings,
1:05:03
Speaker 1: I would lean to Saint Louis here. I don't know
1:05:05
Speaker 1: if I would want to do it full game though,
1:05:07
Speaker 1: because I do think San Diego still does have a
1:05:09
Speaker 1: bulpen edge even though they use some of their best
1:05:10
Speaker 1: relievers yesterday. Money is coming in against Saint Louis though,
1:05:14
Speaker 1: on the full game down for minus one thirty to
1:05:15
Speaker 1: minus one twenty fifty nine percent ticket sixty eight percent
1:05:18
Speaker 1: of the cash on San Diego, So the money is
1:05:20
Speaker 1: coming in on San Diego first five innings, I would
1:05:24
Speaker 1: lean to Saint Louis though at that particular starting pitching matchup. There, Zach,
1:05:29
Speaker 1: what's up man? Thanks for hanging out a different Zach? Right?
1:05:32
Speaker 1: We have multiple Zachs here? Now? Is that right? Am
1:05:34
Speaker 1: I getting that wrong? I forget what each Zach's last
1:05:37
Speaker 1: name is. Now one of the Zachs is the Royals
1:05:40
Speaker 1: Fan Zach? And then I don't know do we have
1:05:42
Speaker 1: multiple Zachs or is that you Zach? I apologize? Maybe
1:05:45
Speaker 1: I'm having another stroke or something. And Atlanta at Texas.
1:05:50
Speaker 1: Texas is on a roll right now, five wins in
1:05:52
Speaker 1: a row. I told you I like Texas. In the
1:05:54
Speaker 1: first game, I should have given it out as a play.
1:05:56
Speaker 1: I mean, e Evaldi maybe was not one hundred percent
1:05:58
Speaker 1: in that game, but it was still definitely enough for
1:06:01
Speaker 1: Texas to get that win. Texas yesterday won in a
1:06:04
Speaker 1: walk off in ten innings. Yesterday. Texas had a lead
1:06:07
Speaker 1: early in the game, blew the lead, which kind of
1:06:09
Speaker 1: surprises me because Texas bullpen is actually fairly good, pretty good.
1:06:14
Speaker 1: They want up winning anyway in ten innings. Atlanta, I mean,
1:06:17
Speaker 1: I just don't see Atlanta being in a very good
1:06:19
Speaker 1: spot here, man. Atlanta used more of their bullpen yesterday.
1:06:22
Speaker 1: Rangers have the better of the two bullpens anyway, so
1:06:25
Speaker 1: the Rangers have arrest advantage in the bullpen and the
1:06:28
Speaker 1: better bullpen. You gotta give the bullpen advantage to the Rangers.
1:06:31
Speaker 1: Atlanta does have the better offense, but it's not by
1:06:34
Speaker 1: that much. And here's your man, Bryce Elder. Oh you
1:06:37
Speaker 1: are the Royals guy. Okay, why did I think your
1:06:40
Speaker 1: last name was something else? I apologize, Yeah, Royals. I
1:06:43
Speaker 1: talked about the roles at a little while back. Noah
1:06:46
Speaker 1: Cameron pitching today, Man, he's pretty good. Elder. Well, I
1:06:49
Speaker 1: don't know about Elder yet because I just I mean,
1:06:51
Speaker 1: I'm just saying I don't like Atlanta's bullpen here, but
1:06:53
Speaker 1: I don't like Elder at all anyway. But five point
1:06:56
Speaker 1: six three ERA, Now, I mean that's not to say
1:06:58
Speaker 1: that you shouldn't play him here because he is facing
1:07:00
Speaker 1: a weak offense. So five point six three ERA in
1:07:03
Speaker 1: the season though, one point five to five whip that's
1:07:05
Speaker 1: not very good on the road. Four point seven to
1:07:09
Speaker 1: one ERA though, so he is better on the road
1:07:11
Speaker 1: than at home this month. Four point eight sixty eight
1:07:15
Speaker 1: thirteen to seven strike out walk ratio. He's walked at
1:07:17
Speaker 1: least three guys and three of his last four outings.
1:07:20
Speaker 1: That's not a good sign. So he's wild. He's walking
1:07:23
Speaker 1: too many guys. That's not good. So Elder not exactly
1:07:26
Speaker 1: in great form. I've never really trusted him, But maybe
1:07:30
Speaker 1: you do want to potentially consider Elder here because the
1:07:33
Speaker 1: Rangers only have three batters who've ever seen him before,
1:07:36
Speaker 1: and they're only one for six off in which that
1:07:38
Speaker 1: one hit is a Seger home run. But still they
1:07:40
Speaker 1: have a one sixty seven average eight thirty three oh
1:07:42
Speaker 1: ps is high, but again it's a very small sample size,
1:07:45
Speaker 1: and it's entirely because of that home run. So I
1:07:49
Speaker 1: wouldn't rule out Elders maybe potentially being a play here
1:07:52
Speaker 1: man because the Rangers park is a little bit more
1:07:55
Speaker 1: pitcher friendly and the Rangers offense is not very good,
1:07:58
Speaker 1: and they haven't really seen elder before. So I think
1:08:02
Speaker 1: the advantage of Texas has I think might become more
1:08:06
Speaker 1: of a Texas might have more of an advantage late
1:08:08
Speaker 1: in this game with the bulp ends. Jack Lighter is
1:08:11
Speaker 1: pitching for Texas. He's a hard thrower man, harder than
1:08:14
Speaker 1: his father threw, but his numbers are kind of iffy
1:08:17
Speaker 1: this year four point two to seven ERA, one point
1:08:20
Speaker 1: three to six whip not great. Better at home though,
1:08:23
Speaker 1: three point nine to four ERA at home for Lighter.
1:08:26
Speaker 1: Lighter this month nice strike got raided eighteen in fifteen innings,
1:08:30
Speaker 1: but he's allowed seven in runs for four point two ERA.
1:08:33
Speaker 1: That's not great. And ten walks this month, so his
1:08:36
Speaker 1: walk rate is way too high. So he's thrown hard,
1:08:38
Speaker 1: but he's walking too many guys man, So Lighter he's
1:08:41
Speaker 1: got to get that under control. The one advantage he
1:08:44
Speaker 1: might have here, besides the fact that he pitches better
1:08:46
Speaker 1: at home, is that the Braves have never faced him before.
1:08:49
Speaker 1: So Lighter might actually have a decent edge over the
1:08:52
Speaker 1: Braves hitters early on in this game because they haven't
1:08:55
Speaker 1: seen him before. Again, that is an advantage to the
1:08:57
Speaker 1: pitcher the first time the hitters have to face sim
1:09:00
Speaker 1: So overall, I would have a slight lean to Texas
1:09:04
Speaker 1: in this game. Where are they at? They're up from
1:09:07
Speaker 1: minus one eighteen of minus one twenty six. Although they're
1:09:09
Speaker 1: public seventy eight percent of tickets, only seventy seven percent
1:09:11
Speaker 1: of the cash here, so the cash is kind of
1:09:14
Speaker 1: against it. They are public, But I mean, if you
1:09:17
Speaker 1: do like Atlanda, you're gonna have to go against Texas's
1:09:20
Speaker 1: current win streak. And baseball is a streaky sport, so
1:09:24
Speaker 1: you got to keep that in mind. It looks like
1:09:27
Speaker 1: as far as the total, I mean, the total is
1:09:29
Speaker 1: fairly high. It went up from nine juice to the under,
1:09:32
Speaker 1: to juice to the over, but eighty one percent of
1:09:33
Speaker 1: tickets only sixty nine percent of the cash on the over,
1:09:36
Speaker 1: just kind of indicating maybe some money a little bit
1:09:39
Speaker 1: on the under here. I'm not quite sure that I
1:09:41
Speaker 1: would agree with that. It's pretty difficult to say, man.
1:09:44
Speaker 1: I mean, you could take a shot with Elder in
1:09:45
Speaker 1: your fantasy lineup here. I don't like Irvin, so I
1:09:50
Speaker 1: mean I would rule out Irvin to be honest, but
1:09:52
Speaker 1: I don't want to be wrong about this. I mean,
1:09:53
Speaker 1: I haven't played fantasy baseball in a long time, though
1:09:56
Speaker 1: I used to. I was in a league. Yeah, I
1:09:58
Speaker 1: was pretty good at it, and I was in a league,
1:10:00
Speaker 1: you know, for a whole bunch of years up until
1:10:04
Speaker 1: not too long ago. I still I basically just played
1:10:07
Speaker 1: fantasy football now, but I did do baseball and basketball
1:10:11
Speaker 1: as well for quite a while with some of the
1:10:14
Speaker 1: same guys. There was a lot to keep track of, though.
1:10:17
Speaker 1: So you said Gin, yeah, I mean again, and I
1:10:23
Speaker 1: wouldn't really rule out Gin or Elder maybe, And then
1:10:27
Speaker 1: I forget who else you said you have here. You
1:10:29
Speaker 1: said you have Kyle Hendrix. I don't know if I
1:10:32
Speaker 1: had rule Hendrix out either. We can talk about Seattle
1:10:34
Speaker 1: and Anaheim here. Anaheim, I mean the one major disadvantage
1:10:38
Speaker 1: Anaheim as besides the fact that I do think Seattle
1:10:41
Speaker 1: does have a better offense than Anaheim as well, and
1:10:43
Speaker 1: especially if Naylor is there now. And Seattle actually has
1:10:46
Speaker 1: been really good offensively on the road, so Seattle's offense
1:10:49
Speaker 1: does have an edge here, but Anaheim's bullpen is the
1:10:52
Speaker 1: huge disadvantage they have, or Anaheim's bullpen is terrible. Anaheim
1:10:56
Speaker 1: lost yesterday seven to two. Again I would not trust anaheimspen.
1:11:02
Speaker 1: As far as the bullpen usage, there was not a
1:11:04
Speaker 1: lot of usage from the Mariners side, so again disadvantage
1:11:07
Speaker 1: goes to the Angels with the bullpen. Starting pitching, I
1:11:10
Speaker 1: still think Seattle has an edge in the starting pitching
1:11:13
Speaker 1: matchup as well, with Logan Gilbert pitching three point oh
1:11:16
Speaker 1: seventy ra a point nine to eight whip. Very good
1:11:18
Speaker 1: to have a sub one whip. He is worse on
1:11:21
Speaker 1: the road though, four point nine to one r on
1:11:22
Speaker 1: the road. A lot of Seattle's pitchers are worse on
1:11:24
Speaker 1: the road. He's in good form recently though, with a
1:11:28
Speaker 1: two point one e iran four starts this month. Seattle's
1:11:31
Speaker 1: won five of his last six starts thirty one to
1:11:34
Speaker 1: seven strike out walk ratio this month, So Gilbert isn't
1:11:37
Speaker 1: good for him right now. He is pitching well, decent
1:11:40
Speaker 1: numbers against Anaheim kind of mediocre. Eighty three at bats,
1:11:45
Speaker 1: so it's a big sample size. Twenty to one strike
1:11:47
Speaker 1: out walk ratio against him is very good. Two sixty
1:11:50
Speaker 1: five batting average not bad, seven to sixty eight ops
1:11:53
Speaker 1: a little bit high. He's a lot five home runs
1:11:55
Speaker 1: to them, two of them from Ohapa. But other than that,
1:11:59
Speaker 1: I mean that Gilbert to probably pitch pretty well in
1:12:01
Speaker 1: this game. He's the better, more talented, and younger pitcher
1:12:05
Speaker 1: over Kyle Hendrix, who I haven't liked Hendrix for quite
1:12:08
Speaker 1: a while. Man, Although he's not doing that badly this year.
1:12:11
Speaker 1: Four point nine two ERA not great, one point two
1:12:14
Speaker 1: to nine whip a little bit high as well, but
1:12:17
Speaker 1: he's been a little bit better at home four point
1:12:19
Speaker 1: three eight e R at home, so Jay Maine Hendrix
1:12:22
Speaker 1: is better at home. His recent form is not very
1:12:24
Speaker 1: good though. He's failed to go five innings in his
1:12:27
Speaker 1: last two starts seven to two strike a walk ratio
1:12:30
Speaker 1: over that span. He's not walking a lot of guys,
1:12:33
Speaker 1: so at least there's that, but he's allowed three or
1:12:34
Speaker 1: more and runs and all three of those out. He's
1:12:36
Speaker 1: a six point five to nine e RA. That's not
1:12:39
Speaker 1: good at all the numbers are the numbers. Yeah, last
1:12:45
Speaker 1: five is a zig zag as far as his win,
1:12:48
Speaker 1: the wins and losses are have been zigzagging for Anaheim yet.
1:12:51
Speaker 1: But I'm just looking at how he's pitched in those games,
1:12:56
Speaker 1: which is, you know, he's been bad pretty much every
1:12:58
Speaker 1: start this month, really, so that's not great rate. His
1:13:00
Speaker 1: numbers are not that bad against Seattle and forty three
1:13:03
Speaker 1: at bats, two fifty six average allowed and uh six't
1:13:06
Speaker 1: eighty two ops. So he actually does not have horrible
1:13:08
Speaker 1: numbers against Seattle, but he is in bad form currently.
1:13:14
Speaker 1: The money, finally, we don't see money coming in on Anaheim.
1:13:17
Speaker 1: I think we saw money coming in on an Anaheim
1:13:19
Speaker 1: in each of the first two games in the series,
1:13:21
Speaker 1: and I kind of said I didn't agree with either
1:13:23
Speaker 1: of them. The money's coming in Seattle, but they're often
1:13:25
Speaker 1: minus one forty eight to minus one sixty. So even
1:13:27
Speaker 1: though I do think Seattle is the right side in
1:13:30
Speaker 1: this game, that seems like a little bit of a
1:13:32
Speaker 1: high price to be paying man seventy eight percent of
1:13:34
Speaker 1: tickets eighty one percent of the cash coming in on Seattle,
1:13:37
Speaker 1: I still agree with it. I mean, I could see
1:13:40
Speaker 1: laying a Seattle run line in this game because their
1:13:43
Speaker 1: offense does do well on the road, So that's probably
1:13:45
Speaker 1: the way I would look in that game. He's a
1:13:47
Speaker 1: gas Can. Yeah, I mean, maybe you're right, maybe Gin
1:13:50
Speaker 1: is actually the way to go here. Houston's office has
1:13:53
Speaker 1: been struggling a little bit. But I mean, what other
1:13:56
Speaker 1: free agents are there for you there? I mean, I
1:13:59
Speaker 1: guess you have limited to who's a free agent who's
1:14:01
Speaker 1: actually pitching today, So you probably are looking at the
1:14:04
Speaker 1: ones who are all, you know, the like reasonable options
1:14:08
Speaker 1: that you have. And then Mets San Francisco is the
1:14:10
Speaker 1: ESPN Sunday Night game. San Francisco, I believe, is trying
1:14:15
Speaker 1: to avoid getting swept here. They've lost the first two
1:14:17
Speaker 1: games of the series. So San Diego San Francisco lost
1:14:21
Speaker 1: again yesterday two to one. Mets used some of their
1:14:24
Speaker 1: best relievers. Yesterday. Giants use some of their relievers as well,
1:14:27
Speaker 1: so some of the best relievers on both sides have
1:14:29
Speaker 1: been used up. Probably the bullpend advantage generally would go
1:14:33
Speaker 1: to San Francisco here. It probably still does, but I
1:14:36
Speaker 1: don't know if that is gonna really help San Francisco
1:14:39
Speaker 1: that much, because I believe they're going with a bullpen
1:14:41
Speaker 1: game here up against Code I Sanga, so it does
1:14:44
Speaker 1: not look that great to me for San Francisco to
1:14:46
Speaker 1: avoid a sweep here. Senga having a really good season
1:14:50
Speaker 1: here from the Mets one point seven to nine, y
1:14:52
Speaker 1: R one point one to eight, whip really good numbers
1:14:55
Speaker 1: here on the road, very similar to at home. His
1:14:59
Speaker 1: numbers are almost the his last two starts though, well,
1:15:02
Speaker 1: so he's trying to come back from injury, so he
1:15:04
Speaker 1: was injured for a month, so they've actually limited his
1:15:06
Speaker 1: pitch count over the last two starts. He's only on
1:15:08
Speaker 1: four innings and three innings. The Mets actually have still won.
1:15:12
Speaker 1: Going all the way back to before he was injured,
1:15:13
Speaker 1: the Mets have won six starts in a row behind
1:15:16
Speaker 1: him this month. He's been a little bit iffy though,
1:15:18
Speaker 1: again returning from injury, so he should get better. But
1:15:21
Speaker 1: he does have five walks and seven innings and has
1:15:23
Speaker 1: a lot four runs so far, with all four of
1:15:27
Speaker 1: those runs coming in his last outing against Anaheim though,
1:15:29
Speaker 1: so he actually did a little bit worse that second
1:15:32
Speaker 1: time out. I expect him to bounce back a bit though,
1:15:34
Speaker 1: I mean San Francisco is a pretty weak offense, so
1:15:38
Speaker 1: I don't think Seng is gonna necessarily do badly here.
1:15:41
Speaker 1: His numbers are pretty good small sample size though against
1:15:43
Speaker 1: San fran twenty at bats four to four strike a
1:15:46
Speaker 1: walk ratio is not good, but two hundred batting average
1:15:49
Speaker 1: six thirty three ops. So I kind of expect Sang
1:15:51
Speaker 1: Good to pitch pretty well in this game. And Matt
1:15:54
Speaker 1: Gage as the listed starter for San Francisco and he
1:15:56
Speaker 1: is a relief pitcher, and people might look, oh my god,
1:15:59
Speaker 1: he has a zero wrote ra, which yeah, I mean
1:16:01
Speaker 1: that's impressive, but I mean he's been a reliever, so
1:16:04
Speaker 1: you're gonna get San Francisco's bullpen having to pick up
1:16:08
Speaker 1: the slack here in this game one point one four whip.
1:16:11
Speaker 1: His numbers are good, but I mean he hasn't pitched
1:16:15
Speaker 1: that much. I guess he was on Detroit and then
1:16:17
Speaker 1: they traded him away. San Francisco has lost every game
1:16:20
Speaker 1: that he's appeared in for them since they've gotten him,
1:16:22
Speaker 1: although he hasn't allowed to run obviously, so it wasn't
1:16:25
Speaker 1: his fault. He's pitched well for San Francisco out of
1:16:28
Speaker 1: the bullpen, just they you know, San Francisco just can't hit,
1:16:32
Speaker 1: and they have been losing all those games against the Mets.
1:16:35
Speaker 1: The Mets are zero for three with a strikeout off
1:16:37
Speaker 1: a Gauge, but again, Gauge is probably gonna be out
1:16:40
Speaker 1: of this game after the first couple of innings. Man,
1:16:42
Speaker 1: you're probably gonna get maybe two winnings out of this guy,
1:16:45
Speaker 1: I would guess. And then San Francisco's bullpend, even though
1:16:47
Speaker 1: it is a really good bullpen, They're probably gonna use
1:16:50
Speaker 1: one of their long relief guys or whatever to try
1:16:52
Speaker 1: to bridge the gap there. But still I don't love
1:16:55
Speaker 1: San Francisco in a spot like that minutes. It basically
1:16:58
Speaker 1: means they're not using their best pitchers here, even though
1:17:01
Speaker 1: it's the Sunday night game and they're gonna be trying
1:17:04
Speaker 1: to avoid a sweep here. But the money has come
1:17:06
Speaker 1: in on San Francisco. The Mets are down for minus
1:17:08
Speaker 1: one forty five to minus one seventeen seventy eight percent
1:17:11
Speaker 1: of tickets on them, but fifty five percent of the
1:17:13
Speaker 1: cash coming in on San Francisco. Again, I don't really
1:17:15
Speaker 1: understand that. I mean, maybe I'm just too old school.
1:17:18
Speaker 1: I don't like these bullpen games, even though again, Giants
1:17:21
Speaker 1: will have a good bullpen, but they use some of
1:17:23
Speaker 1: their better relievers yesterday, Senga, even though he's trying to
1:17:26
Speaker 1: come back from injury, he should go deeper than Gauge
1:17:28
Speaker 1: in this game. So I think that gives the Mets
1:17:31
Speaker 1: kind of an edge out of the gate there. So
1:17:33
Speaker 1: I don't really agree with that line move, although maybe
1:17:35
Speaker 1: the feeling was, well, the Mets are just too heavy
1:17:37
Speaker 1: of a favorite there, Yeah, I mean maybe agin is
1:17:41
Speaker 1: the right way to go there. Anyway, that has been
1:17:45
Speaker 1: the uh rundown for me. I always forget to put
1:17:47
Speaker 1: the graphic up and then we're gonna go with our
1:17:50
Speaker 1: best bets segment here, which, as you know, is only
1:17:53
Speaker 1: one play that I have today and it is in
1:17:55
Speaker 1: the game I didn't talk about. That's in the title here,
1:17:57
Speaker 1: and you already know it's an under Miami Millwake under
1:18:00
Speaker 1: the total. That's what we're going with here. I'm not
1:18:03
Speaker 1: too concerned with the bullpens here because the bullpens didn't
1:18:06
Speaker 1: see it's on a usage yesterday and Milwaukee's bullpend after
1:18:09
Speaker 1: a really rough start to the year, they've actually really improved.
1:18:12
Speaker 1: They're actually the tenth best bullpend whip wise now, though
1:18:15
Speaker 1: their era is a little bit higher than that. But
1:18:17
Speaker 1: there's still a decent bullpen. Miami's is in the mid
1:18:22
Speaker 1: tier as well. I mean their ERA is at least
1:18:23
Speaker 1: below four as well, So I think the bullpens could
1:18:27
Speaker 1: help keep us in this game here. Milwaukee actually hits
1:18:30
Speaker 1: better on the road than they do at home. So Milwaukee,
1:18:33
Speaker 1: even though their offense is decent, they might be held
1:18:36
Speaker 1: to check a little bit because they are playing at home.
1:18:39
Speaker 1: Hitting wise, Milwaukee, I mean, where are they at. I
1:18:42
Speaker 1: think they're actually somewhat mid tier here, right. Where are
1:18:44
Speaker 1: they at in the hitting stats here? Miami's eighteenth, the
1:18:48
Speaker 1: Milwaukee's actually twentieth in ops, so we're looking at actually
1:18:52
Speaker 1: mid tier offenses here too. So I think that's fine
1:18:54
Speaker 1: as far as the under is concerned. And you know,
1:18:57
Speaker 1: as part of this under here, I like the starting
1:19:00
Speaker 1: pitching matchup man Uri Perez. I mean, this guy seems
1:19:03
Speaker 1: like he is back, man. I mean, he's been really
1:19:05
Speaker 1: good recently. He's a guy who started out his career
1:19:09
Speaker 1: really young in the majors at the age of twenty
1:19:11
Speaker 1: two years ago, pitched really well, and then he got
1:19:14
Speaker 1: hurt and I think he had at least one Tommy
1:19:16
Speaker 1: John surgery, and now he's trying to come back from that.
1:19:19
Speaker 1: He's really kind of turning into his old self again
1:19:22
Speaker 1: this year. Really good numbers overall, three point two to
1:19:24
Speaker 1: three ERA, point nine to seven WHIP. He's been slightly
1:19:27
Speaker 1: worse on the road three point four to seven e RA,
1:19:30
Speaker 1: but not gonna hold that against him. This month, he's
1:19:32
Speaker 1: been excellent with one point one seven ERA twenty six
1:19:36
Speaker 1: to three strikeout walk ratio. Miami had won four starts
1:19:40
Speaker 1: in a row for him before his last start where
1:19:43
Speaker 1: he was a little bit shak here. Only went five
1:19:45
Speaker 1: innings to give twour in runs against San Diego, but
1:19:47
Speaker 1: that's still not even that bad. Did have two of
1:19:50
Speaker 1: his walks this month in that game. But Perez, I mean,
1:19:52
Speaker 1: I don't think he's about to fall out a form
1:19:54
Speaker 1: or anything like that. He's been good and we have
1:19:56
Speaker 1: only eleven at bats for Milwaukee against him. Some Milwaukee
1:20:00
Speaker 1: these bats haven't even seen him before. In eleven at bats,
1:20:04
Speaker 1: he's allowed two hits, he has six strikeouts against them,
1:20:07
Speaker 1: has held him to a one to eighty two batting
1:20:09
Speaker 1: average four fifty five ohps. So I know it's a
1:20:12
Speaker 1: small sample size, but with a young guy like Perez
1:20:14
Speaker 1: who's pitching really well right now. Milwaukee. Their hitters that
1:20:18
Speaker 1: haven't seen him before he might struggle against him, and
1:20:20
Speaker 1: the guys that have haven't done that well against him
1:20:22
Speaker 1: at all. Very high strike gout rate against him. So
1:20:24
Speaker 1: I like Perez here and I like Brandon Woodrooff on
1:20:27
Speaker 1: the other side even more. Woodroof, I think is a
1:20:30
Speaker 1: guy that kind of got forgotten because he was injured
1:20:32
Speaker 1: as well. He missed an entire season, So this is
1:20:35
Speaker 1: the battle of two starting pitchers that missed the entire
1:20:37
Speaker 1: year last year. So I think they're guys that are
1:20:39
Speaker 1: still flying under the raid are a little bit here,
1:20:42
Speaker 1: and though of course the books did put out a
1:20:43
Speaker 1: very low total in this game, so they're not really
1:20:45
Speaker 1: flying under the radar that much, but I still think
1:20:47
Speaker 1: it's gonna happen. I like him Woodruff really good so
1:20:51
Speaker 1: far since he's come back this season one point six
1:20:54
Speaker 1: five ERA point five to five whip. I mean, he
1:20:57
Speaker 1: obviously can't keep that up, but he's been really real good.
1:21:01
Speaker 1: Not as good at home four point one five yr,
1:21:03
Speaker 1: but I think it was one start where he just
1:21:05
Speaker 1: wasn't as good. In that home start against Washington. He's
1:21:09
Speaker 1: still had ten k's in that game, so I'm not
1:21:12
Speaker 1: gonna worry about that too much. Overall, so far of
1:21:16
Speaker 1: the season, he has twenty three strike cuts and no walks,
1:21:20
Speaker 1: and he's only allowed three runs all on solo home runs,
1:21:23
Speaker 1: by the way, which is really crazy, and nine hits overall,
1:21:27
Speaker 1: sixteen to the third innings man. So Woodruff, I think
1:21:31
Speaker 1: he can absolutely trust him. He seems to be all
1:21:33
Speaker 1: the way back, and he has dominated Miami. In thirty
1:21:37
Speaker 1: four career at bats. They have two hits off and
1:21:39
Speaker 1: one of them is a home run from Harrobertto Hernanda
1:21:43
Speaker 1: Araberto Hernandez. I don't know how he pronounced his name,
1:21:46
Speaker 1: but other than that, he's absolutely dominated Miami thirty four
1:21:49
Speaker 1: at bats. Again, just those two hits, twelve strikeouts, one walk,
1:21:53
Speaker 1: and fifty nine batting average in two thirty three h ps.
1:21:56
Speaker 1: So I actually think we're looking at two dominant pitchers
1:21:59
Speaker 1: here who are not name pitchers. So I like the under.
1:22:02
Speaker 1: I found it under seven and a half with a
1:22:05
Speaker 1: little bit of juice on that. I think you might
1:22:08
Speaker 1: have to go under seven now maybe, but it looks
1:22:10
Speaker 1: like it's down a little bit from seven and a
1:22:11
Speaker 1: half to seven with juice on the over. So you
1:22:13
Speaker 1: might still be able to find the under seven and
1:22:15
Speaker 1: a half. I would pay up to about minus one
1:22:18
Speaker 1: twenty to get the under seven and a half. If
1:22:19
Speaker 1: you can't find that, I would still probably go under
1:22:21
Speaker 1: seven in this game too. Seven is the key number
1:22:24
Speaker 1: in baseball because it's the run that you need to
1:22:26
Speaker 1: break a three to three tie. So if you go
1:22:29
Speaker 1: under seven, you're risking. You know, if it lands right
1:22:31
Speaker 1: on seven, you'll push instead. But that's not, you know,
1:22:33
Speaker 1: the worst thing that could happen. Fifty eight percent of tickets,
1:22:37
Speaker 1: ninety four percent of the cash on the under. I
1:22:39
Speaker 1: think this is a strong play. It looks like it
1:22:41
Speaker 1: has a strong market read on it here. For some reason,
1:22:44
Speaker 1: Milwaukee's dropped from minus one eighty five to minus one
1:22:46
Speaker 1: fifty on the money line. Eighty three percent of tickets,
1:22:49
Speaker 1: eighty five percent of the cash. Milwaukee is public because
1:22:51
Speaker 1: they've been so hot recently. Everybody saw what they did
1:22:54
Speaker 1: against the Dodgers, so they are going to take the
1:22:56
Speaker 1: public action. For the most part, I think the public
1:22:59
Speaker 1: is comple the overlooking Uri Perez and the oddsmakers are
1:23:03
Speaker 1: basically telling you they think this is gonna be a
1:23:04
Speaker 1: pitching duel here and that is what I'm going with,
1:23:06
Speaker 1: So I really like both of those pitchers. I like
1:23:08
Speaker 1: the under in that game there. Oh, Nick Kurtz isn't
1:23:14
Speaker 1: playing today, no, for he had another good game yesterday.
1:23:18
Speaker 1: I thought that he was a fade yesterday in the
1:23:21
Speaker 1: prompt market after he exploded the game before that, but
1:23:23
Speaker 1: he did pretty well yesterday too. He was two for
1:23:25
Speaker 1: four Diamondbacks took some money there. It looks like the
1:23:29
Speaker 1: cash percentage is still on Pittsburgh though. But I talked
1:23:32
Speaker 1: about that game right at the start of the show,
1:23:34
Speaker 1: and I recommended under in the first five innings in
1:23:36
Speaker 1: that game is what I recommended in that game. But
1:23:39
Speaker 1: it looks like the money is kind of going against
1:23:40
Speaker 1: that now. So I'm kind of glad and actually give
1:23:43
Speaker 1: it out as a play. But that's kind of how
1:23:44
Speaker 1: I lean. You're going on the Phillies run line. Don't
1:23:50
Speaker 1: don't factor you're bias in too much, though, man, I
1:23:53
Speaker 1: mean do it for fun. If you're not gonna risk
1:23:55
Speaker 1: too much money on it, I mean, do it for fun.
1:23:57
Speaker 1: But I kind of disagree with Philadelphia in that game.
1:24:00
Speaker 1: It looks like my read on this is still the
1:24:02
Speaker 1: Philadelphia is a public road team here. And that the
1:24:04
Speaker 1: cash is going against them, but Wheeler is better than Redon.
1:24:09
Speaker 1: I mean, if I was gonna go Philly, though, I
1:24:10
Speaker 1: would probably limit it to a first five inning play,
1:24:13
Speaker 1: which that's what I talked about earlier in the show. Anyway,
1:24:16
Speaker 1: thanks for hanging out, dude. I appreciate everybody in the
1:24:19
Speaker 1: chat here. A lot of action in the chat today.
1:24:21
Speaker 1: J Main. Good luck with your fantasy day and your
1:24:24
Speaker 1: bets today. Man, hopefully it all goes well. My play
1:24:27
Speaker 1: at One More Time is the under in the Marlins
1:24:29
Speaker 1: Brewers game a little bit boring. I understand it's the
1:24:32
Speaker 1: only play that I have today, but I like these
1:24:34
Speaker 1: pitching duels, man, so that's what really gets me fired up.
1:24:37
Speaker 1: I'm like, oh my god, I love these two starting pitchers.
1:24:39
Speaker 1: Let's go under Baby the Undertaker. That's me and maybe
1:24:45
Speaker 1: I'll be the one who dies and I'll have to
1:24:47
Speaker 1: meet the Undertaker, but that's gonna do it. Learn to
1:24:49
Speaker 1: toad on Twitter for me, Learn to toad on Instagram.
1:24:53
Speaker 1: Excuse me where I post Better off Dead content there
1:24:56
Speaker 1: as well? I just do short form. I put out
1:24:58
Speaker 1: what my plays actually are YouTube Better off Dead. Of
1:25:01
Speaker 1: course you guys are watching me here thanks for everything, man,
1:25:05
Speaker 1: like comment subscribe, Let's blow this thing up, man. And
1:25:08
Speaker 1: I'm also on the audio platforms as well with Better
1:25:11
Speaker 1: Off Dead. I also have a ukulele project covered in
1:25:14
Speaker 1: yuke Is the Ukulele channel I post all the stuff
1:25:18
Speaker 1: that I post on Twitter. I'm now double posting on
1:25:20
Speaker 1: that yuke YouTube channel as well. YouTube channel as well
1:25:24
Speaker 1: covered in yuke Is where that is. And you can
1:25:26
Speaker 1: support my Patreon, Patreon, dot com, slash learn to toad
1:25:29
Speaker 1: and at the higher levels you get some bonus yuke content.
1:25:32
Speaker 1: Right now, you can request stuff from me and you
1:25:35
Speaker 1: get a at the highest level, and you get a
1:25:38
Speaker 1: Spotify feed with all the yuke covers at the mid
1:25:40
Speaker 1: tier level there as well. So some yeah, it looks
1:25:44
Speaker 1: like that money line is just zigzagging back and forth.
1:25:46
Speaker 1: Man the Phillies. It seems like maybe there's some disagreement
1:25:49
Speaker 1: among some of the professionals or However, because the game
1:25:53
Speaker 1: is about to start and it's one of the more
1:25:55
Speaker 1: popular games of the day, I would worry that some
1:25:57
Speaker 1: of that late line movement is actually the public. So
1:26:00
Speaker 1: I don't trust anything that the public does. Att I
1:26:03
Speaker 1: don't know that the public would move the line that
1:26:05
Speaker 1: much in baseball really in general, the public really only
1:26:08
Speaker 1: has the ability to move a line significantly in like
1:26:11
Speaker 1: NFL games for the most part. Yes, sir, thank you, sir.
1:26:15
Speaker 1: I've been somewhat bad recently, so yeah, I'm only a
1:26:20
Speaker 1: one in five run right now, so hopefully that turns around.
1:26:23
Speaker 1: I was hot going into the All Star Break and
1:26:24
Speaker 1: now I'm on a bad slide coming out of the
1:26:27
Speaker 1: All Star Break. Generally, I mean it pisses me off
1:26:29
Speaker 1: because generally baseball has been my second best sport. I've
1:26:32
Speaker 1: been doing this for eighteen years. NBA has been my best,
1:26:35
Speaker 1: and baseball has been my second best. So I don't know. Man,
1:26:39
Speaker 1: Miami and Brewers under Yeah, under in that game on
1:26:43
Speaker 1: the full game, Yeah, is what I recommended in that game. Yeah.
1:26:47
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be an absolute pitching duel in
1:26:49
Speaker 1: that game. And I think the bullpens can keep us
1:26:51
Speaker 1: in checking that game as well. In that one. Both
1:26:54
Speaker 1: offense is actually kind of mediocre in that matchup there.
1:26:58
Speaker 1: That's gonna do it again. Learned a toad better off
1:27:01
Speaker 1: dead covered in Yuke. Thanks guys, have a safe and
1:27:05
Speaker 1: happy and non blasphemous Sunday. Thanks everybody, have a good one,