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Transcript

Felix Prehn - URGENT WARNING TO ALL STOCK MARKET INVESTORS + Stock Market News 31 March 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market bloodbath where well, well, well, well markets are pretty awful this morning.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Let's be honest about it.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: It's so awful that even Winston is trying to cover his face, because this is literally what the pre-market looks like.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: You don't want to know, but what I want to do in the spirit of learning and getting better and persevering apart from this being obviously a general psychiatric session for all of us loons in the market I want to actually give you seven or eight insights that will make you into a better informed investor, that will allow you to make better decisions today and for the rest of the week and generally set you up for a glorious, exciting and very, very, very profitable 2025, which I think is on the cards for us.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to share my screen here with you.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: There we are, so we're planning this.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Why is the market actually falling again today?
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: And if you don't believe it's falling, well, avert your eyes.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: This is not for children.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Ouch, right, ouch is what I say.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: This is the pre-market.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Ouch, right, ouch is what I say.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: This is the pre-market pretty hideous stuff.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: So why is it actually going down?
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Are stocks actually cheap?
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Is this maybe an opportunity?
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Could the optimists here be buying the dip.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: And are they?
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Because I've got the data.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: I can tell you whether or not retail investors are buying the dip, and I will tell you that in just a minute or so.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Are you buying the dip?
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I will tell you that in just a minute or so.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Um, are you buying the dip?
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: And should you?
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Isn't that the real question that's running through your head, right, we're going to get there at number four.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: And then what's wall street doing?
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Do they expect a crash here right now?
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: And what is the one thing literally the one thing that the pros are watching to tell them when the market goes from catastrophe to opportunity?
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: And I will show you one more thing that you will never be able to unsee again, and ask you whether you're still bullish after that one.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: And then, what if and this is a question I want to end here with what if the bubble is already burst?
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: What if we're already at the bottom?
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: What if this is already the opportunity?
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Is that possible?
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Well, let's have a look at that in a moment.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: And then I should add to this glorious list we will do our utmost to do a wonderful Q&A.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Obviously, you can ask me all about your favorite stocks and your major concerns, and also, mostly, about how Winston is coping with it.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: All.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Seems a bit serious, doesn't he?
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: You call there.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: He is so there.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: So there we are.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Golden retrievers are now off screen.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: There is, is he on screen again?
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Oh, yes, he's still hiding his face, uh.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: So let's see, um, let's see, where this takes us in terms of information and, and, by the way, if you guys would find these eight points useful, just write useful in the chat, and that way I know this is something that would give you some value and therefore I'll do more of these kind of, you know, educational early morning run throughs here again.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Velvet ears indeed.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Yes, all right, so let's, let's run through this here then then.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: So why is the market falling again?
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: It's this chap.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: He's at it again.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: I'll take Winston off the screen here for a moment, although he seems to be watching.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Are you watching, winston?
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Are you paying attention?
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Maybe we can get some insight out of that one.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: He's got a very calm head.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Okay, we're seeing a lot of usefuls here.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, fantastic, loving that.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Lots of useful, lots of useful.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: The market's falling because of this guy.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: He said that on tariff day, freedom day, as he calls it.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Across the table tariffs on everything and everybody is an option again, which would mean across the board tariffs of 20%.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: That's sort of the original thought and we kind of thought, hey, he walked away from that last week, it's going to be fine, it'll just be fine.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: And then on Friday we got some jitters because he made some statements and then over the weekend, this is what the Wall Street Journal's just put out, which is why the market looks so hideous this morning.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: So now you know we're worried about bigger than expected tariffs again.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Suddenly, right, it's the trump flip-flop at its finest.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: So let me ask you this then what if stocks are actually already cheap?
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: This is data from goldman sachs, big wall street bank, and they look mostly not at current pe numbers, because current PE numbers is backwards looking right, because the E.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: So the P stands for price, right?
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: This isn't really intuitive, so let me write this out the E stands for profit.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: I mean they call it earnings, but it's the same thing as profit.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: I always think this should be the PP ratio.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: I think it'd be a lot easier, but it might sound a bit silly perhaps.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: So they look at forward earnings, which means we're looking at next year's profits, so next year's expected profits rather than last year's, which makes a lot of sense actually, if you think about it, because, um, so you guys want to a little bit less.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Winston is being requested.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: There he is, he'll disappear.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: You guys can vote on that.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: There we go, and if you want more Winston, let me know.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: If you want less Winston, write I don't know cats or something in the chat and I'll know what you mean.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: A little bit bigger for you, the light blue ziggety-zaggety line is the S&P 500, so the index.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: They're forward multiples.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: So how expensive is it right?
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: And then they have these sort of little dotted lines in here, these ones which are sort of the top of the trading range and the bottom of the trading range.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: It's a bit like a Bollinger Band, if you've seen that sort of thing before.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: So we were at the top of the trading range here and here and here and right now.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Well, we're at the bottom of the trading range.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Now, the only thing with that is that right now we're trading at a 20x, so 20 times next year's earnings.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: At the last dip, which was 2024, we're at 17x.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: In 2022, we bottomed out at 15 X In 2020, that was COVID.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: We bottomed out at 13 X.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, the world was ending right 2019,.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: We were at 14 X down here.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: So does that mean stocks are cheap?
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Well, I think the thing that's important to understand here is that we haven't actually had any terrible economic news.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: There isn't a big bank that's failed.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: There isn't a run on mortgages.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: There isn't some sort of catastrophic collapse out there.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: The economy is relatively strong.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: There is more or less full unemployment.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Inflation is stable.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's not like some insane level.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: We're expecting two to three rate cuts this year.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: So it's a lot of stuff.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: That's pretty good.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Earnings are coming in pretty solid, right?
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: No one's going like, oh my god, it's all over and therefore, everything that's happening here right now is based on one thing and one thing only.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Not fundamentals, not the economy, some data point.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: It's all based on one word fear.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Fear that what's coming on Wednesday, the tariff announcements that they will be so terrible it's going to just shake everything.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: And if they're not that terrible, guess what's going to happen.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: You put it in the chat.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Let me know what you think is going to happen if the announcement is less terrible than expected.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: Now what about you lot?
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: Are you still buying the dip?
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: When was the last time you bought the dip?
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Let me know in the chat, like just put the date in or put the weekday in or whatever when was the last time you bought the dip?
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: I wanted to buy the dip on Friday and then I looked at the data and I'll show you that very data point that maybe changed my mind.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: There's one data point on Friday that's changed and I'll show you that, because that is the number one thing that the pros look at here.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Okay, rally.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly that's what we would expect.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: If the announcement on Wednesday, if the tariffs are not horrible I mean not like just like world ending, you know, then the market will probably recover.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Now you of course have to bear in mind with Donald J Trump, his negotiation style is confuse the opposition until they just give in.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Right, that seems to be the style.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Honestly, he wrote a book, I want to say in the late 80s, early 90s, called the Art of the Deal.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: It's a very good book.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: I want to say in the late 80s, early 90s, called the Art of the Deal.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: It's a very good book.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: I'd read it.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: If you loathe the guy, I'd still read it because you understand how he thinks, you understand how he works and it's actually quite entertaining.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: I read it like maybe 20 years ago so our retailer Ernesto's buying the dip.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Okay, some of you did Don, you bought on Tuesday.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Okay, most of you are not that enthused about buying the dip and that's exactly what we're seeing here, that we've had a lot of dip buying.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: In February we had an extraordinary amount of dip buying into this.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: You know mini crash that we're in, and why do I call it mini crash?
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: It's not really a crash crash yet, it's just like in that.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: But what do you see at the top there?
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Can you see that?
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: Can you see that there it sort of goes up and then it kind of does that.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Right, it's like a little hook and that means retail is going.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: I'm not so sure about this and retail has been holding up this market, even though it didn't feel like it because the hedge funds were out the door on day one.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: So that concerns me a little bit, but that's actually not the data point that I'm worried about.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying sentiment there isn't so great.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: So are you going to be buying the dip, and should you?
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: I guess I asked you that right, honestly, my answer to that is very simple Don't buy a thing unless you've watched this.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: And what is this?
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: This is the tried and tested rules that some of the most successful traders and investors out there have used since the 70s yeah, since the 70s.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: I didn't invent this.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: I learned it from my mentors.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: I've tweaked it a little bit because the markets have changed and evolved and things move a bit more quickly now than they used to.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: But ultimately, the question is always when do you buy, right?
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: When do you buy and when do you sell?
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Now the selling part is actually the hardest thing, as you've experienced the last two weeks.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: You're like it's going down, I don't want to sell it Now.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: It's down 10%.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: Now it's down 20%.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: I don't want to sell it now.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Or what if it goes down some more?
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Maybe I should sell it at minus 30%, right, it's all the that's going on ahead.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: So we automate that and I show you exactly how we do that.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: If you watch this masterclass and it's free, it takes 15 minutes and you will literally learn those two rules you will never look at a stock chart the same way again, you'll never look at your portfolio the same way again, and I'll tell you, you'll sleep a lot better tonight.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: That's my promise to you.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: It's completely free.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Felixfrenzelorg slash, get free.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: So if you want to get free from all the stress and ultimately get to financial freedom and make your money work for you so you don't have to, and all that good stuff that comes from having your money work well, go to FelixFrenzelorg slash, get free.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: And if you're going to go and watch that, just write free in the chat.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: Just write free in the chat and I see that you're going to go and do that.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: And if you leave this video right now and do that, I would be thrilled.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: I would be absolutely thrilled to say Felix, free, I'm off right, because that's more important than actually the news or the data today.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: If you don't understand the big picture and the big rules and the patterns that drive the markets, today's news isn't going to really help you that much.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: It just turns you into a news junkie who feels like they're doing something useful, but ultimately, the only useful thing is to learn the skills.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: It's like you know, if I watch somebody chop wood, I probably still wouldn't be able to chop wood.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: I have not tried to chop wood, but I have an inkling that I won't be very good at it, winston.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Do you think I'll be good at chopping wood?
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Is that the face of confidence in his master?
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: I have my doubts, so mark free at my first call today.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Brilliant.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: My friend david says free.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: Um, lots of frees in here.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Brilliant rules.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: Uh, fantastic.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Already done.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: That, says louis.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Roberto says free, fantastic.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Um, okay, the japanese, we can get onto those in a moment as well.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: My friends natural lumberjack me clearly.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Right, I mean, it's just, it's the way I'm built, isn't it?
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Um, I did work out today with my my crazy calisthenics coach from israel, but that's a bit of a different skill.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Now, does wall street expect a crash?
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Okay, I always like to look to wall street because a?
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: A, I'm very lucky.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Winston has insider access to some of the greatest minds on Wall Street and he gets all the analysts' reports and stuff.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: He's very popular over there, so therefore I get access to them and it gives us the kind of stuff that I used to get in the morning meetings.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: What's a morning meeting?
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Every bank, every trading floor, every investment bank, every hedge fund has a morning meeting.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: It's typically at 7 am, before the market opens, and somebody wise and older and more experienced who's been awake through the night will tell you what happens and what's going on and what you need to know so you make better decisions.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: And that's kind of my goal here.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: John thinks I wear high heels.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: John, I'm more worried about what's going on in your head now than in mine.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: Okay, so this is Goldman Sachs and this is their forecast.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: This is just out, out, like out today, and what they're saying is that they think in the next three months and maybe I'll magnify this, so we've had this is the uh, what we've just had, right, I'll put in green in here, or maybe in red, the expectation.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: It looks a bit like this so we have the dip to 5,300 on the S&P and then in 12 months, they think we're going to be back at 5,900, which isn't quite above where we were, but it's relatively decent.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: And what do they base that on?
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: Well, they've got this blue line on here, because they only use blue and blue.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: It's a special thing when you work at Goldman Sachs.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know what it is, but you see this line, right, this line here.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: This line is Monty Python, yes, now.