Latest / Toadstool Sports / Saturday BEST BETS | Nothing to See Here | MLB & NCAA Football | 9/12/26

Transcript

Saturday BEST BETS | Nothing to See Here | MLB & NCAA Football | 9/12/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your hand Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: made you this man But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: Now Hold on.
• 0:52
  Speaker 4: Hold on, not tonight, not now.
• 0:58
  Speaker 5: Hold on, hold on Let me pull you out That
• 1:06
  Speaker 5: fella fights hard But he don't get the.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Crown Hold on, hold.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: On Stay with me now What's up, everybody? It's Toad
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: back with you. Toadstool Sports, Saturday, September 12th. Um, hopefully
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: people caught the college football show, which I do. Degenerate hours,
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: late night, Friday night. It's detailed, it's long. I gave
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: out four plays, and they're real ugly. Bunch of huge underdogs.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's, these are the best situations that I
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: see on the board, so that's what I'm doing here.
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: Hopefully it's gonna work out. Um, Go check that out
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: if you haven't. I'll reiterate the plays at the end
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: of this show, but to see the analysis, go back there,
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: or I'll put it up on Instagram as well. Yesterday,
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: we went 1-1 on the show. The college football, not
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: off to a good start, 1-4. Villanova was looking good
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: for a while. They were down 17-10 in the middle
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: of the second quarter. I'm like, all right, yeah, they're
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: hanging around here. This looks pretty good. And then before halftime,
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: they give up two more touchdowns, but they're still covering
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: at that point. I'm like, all right, man, let's just...
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: you know, just have Louisville, whatever, just pack it in
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: towards the end of the second half. No, that's not
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: really what happened. Although Villanova was able to score and
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: get back within the number, I think in the late
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: third quarter, I think they were covering again. Then Louisville,
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: of course, wound up finishing with two more touchdowns. And
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: then that was it. I'm pretty pissed about it. We
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: did get the A's in the first five innings. Correct.
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: That was close for a little while. They were losing
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: 1-0 in the first inning, but they tied it immediately,
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: and then they took a 2-1 lead, I believe. Then
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: they gave that up, and it was 2-2, but then
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: they increased the lead to 4-2, I believe, in the
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: third or fourth inning. And then it was like, alright,
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: now they're probably going to get this, which they did.
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: They actually hung on, and well, they blew that lead,
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: but then they still won in the full game, too.
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: I would not have wanted to bank on that, but
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: we got the A's correct there. Baseball, I don't like
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: the baseball board today, either, and that's what the show
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: is going to be. I have One play, and I
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: have another play that I want to make, and it's
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: dependent on one team deciding who their starting pitcher is
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: going to be. And if it's who I think it's
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: going to be, then I like this play. But I
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: don't know why they haven't announced that he's starting yet.
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: I don't know what we're doing here. Charles, what's up?
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out. All right, we have afternoon baseball here.
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: 110 Eastern at Colorado at Detroit. Of course, we know Detroit.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: They're the better team. They're also, I guess, if you
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: think they're still alive, they still have something to play
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: for here. They did win yesterday, 6-2. This game, this
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: is a game, I mean, I want no part of
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: this game, just to put it out there. I mean,
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: this is a game that's pretty hard to predict. Detroit
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: used three relief pitchers yesterday. They definitely have the better bullpen.
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: Colorado also used three. Detroit's number 16 in bullpen based
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: on whip. Colorado 27th. Colorado is the better offense. They're
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: number four. Detroit is, where are they at? 20th, tied
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: with Arizona and Philly, which doesn't sound that bad, but
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: it kind of is. Tanner Gordon getting the start for Colorado. 5.4 ERA, 1.43 whip.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: Gordon is significantly better on the road, though. He's bad
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: in course field, but on the road... 2.68 ERA. I mean,
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: I don't think his ERA should be that good, but
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: it's not bad. He's at least not horrible on the road.
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: He's coming off another bad start, but it was at home.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: His previous home start was actually pretty good, and he
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: had a really good road start prior to that. His
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: last couple of road appearances have been pretty good, although
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: he's had some short outings here. He does have way
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: too high of a hit rate still. Doesn't really walk anybody,
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: and his strikeout rate is somewhat okay. So his strikeout
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: walk ratio is actually good. 4.5, but he is way
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: too hittable. 7.3 Ks per nine is also not really
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: something that's going to blow you away. He's also not
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: good against Detroit, although the only five hitters have faced him.
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: 20 at bats, small sample, but they have a 400
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: average against them. 1,079 OPS, 3-1 strikeout walk ratio. So
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: I don't think Gordon is set up to do particularly
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: well on this one, even though he is better on
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: the road. Detroit is going with Andrew Sears. I don't
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: know much about this guy. He's young. He's got a 4.3 ADRA, 1.22 whip.
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: This is his first season in the majors, I'm pretty sure,
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: and he's made three appearances so far. And he's been mediocre.
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: He's only made one start, though, which I believe was
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: probably his most recent outing against Cleveland. He did pretty
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: well in that one. They lost the game in extra innings.
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: Not really his fault. He went five and two-thirds, allowed
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: one run on four hits, two walks, four strikeouts. So
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: he might be okay. And Colorado, of course, has not
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: faced him before. So he has that unfamiliarity edge, although
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: how good is he really? I don't know. I mean,
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: his strikeout rate's not really that high. His hit rate
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: is right at one per inning. His walk rate is fine.
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, I just don't even know. I mean, he's
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: probably a mediocre pitcher, I would guess. This game's, yeah,
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: like I said, it's really difficult to predict. The money
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: seems to be kind of indicating towards Colorado. Some of
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: it is because Detroit's favored really heavily around minus 180.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: And I guess the question is really, should they be
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: with this? unknown on the on the mound here maybe
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: not I mean I don't know we at least know
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: who Gordon is the money's also backing the over eight
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: and a half it looks like here I don't really
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: necessarily disagree with the over here I mean it's just
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: we just have no idea we're gonna get I think
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: at least Gordon is a little bit more predictable here
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: and I kind of expect him to not be good
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: I guess the other way that you could do this,
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: if you think Detroit will win and the over is
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: getting the money, I should say, then you could play
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: Detroit over their team total. I mean, I'm not really
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: a team totals guy. I rarely give them out on
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: the show here, but Detroit over team total makes some
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: sense in that one as well. You'll need them to
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: get to probably six runs, though, if you do that.
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: Maybe five. New York, New York, the Yankees won yesterday,
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: which pisses me off for a bunch of reasons. Because
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: I thought the Mets had a pretty good shot at
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: winning that with the rest edge plus Nolan McClain on
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: the mound. That did not happen. Everything that could have
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: gone wrong yesterday did as far as being a Red
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: Sox fan. Although it's not really that surprising that the
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: Yankees are beating the Mets. I mean, the Yankees are
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: the better team overall. Yankees have a somewhat better bullpen.
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: Both bullpens are pretty good, though. Yankees used three relief
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday. The Mets only used one. Yankees are the
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: number one bullpen ERA and number three in WIP right now.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: The Mets are number eight. arranged by Whip. Yankees are
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: the better offense. The Yankees have been surging offensively. Again,
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: Aaron Judge is back. They've been putting up more runs
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: since his return. I think they've put up, I want
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: to say they've put up five or six runs or
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: more in all four of his games so far. They're
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: number 12 in offense right now, tied with the A's
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: and the White Sox. The Mets are obviously worse in
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: that department. They're 24th, tied with St. Louis and Cincinnati.
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: Mets are going with Zach Thornton here. He's been pretty good,
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: and he's under the radar. He's got a 3.53 ERA, 1.19 whip.
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: He's been better on the road as well, 2.95 road ERA.
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: Wasn't good last time out at home against San Francisco,
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: but I think he got unlucky. He gave up four
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: home runs, which I know doesn't look good, but five innings,
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: gave up seven hits, six strikeouts, one walk. I mean,
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: usually when you put up a line like that, you're
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: not going to wind up giving up six runs. I
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: know it's not good. It wasn't against a good offense,
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: but I think it was not as bad as maybe
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: it looks like it was, and that was the first
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: time he allowed more than 300 runs all season, except
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: for his first start of the season against Washington, which
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: was on the road. This is also his rookie season here,
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: so he's had a pretty good rookie campaign. His hit
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: rate is okay. He really doesn't walk many guys. His
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is a little bit low, though. 3.4 strikeout
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: walk ratio is not bad, though. 6.9 Ks per nine.
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: The advanced analytics guys won't love that because he doesn't
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: fool hitters. But if you're consistently not putting guys on base,
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: that is what it is, man. And the Yankees have
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: not faced him before. Thornton might be able to do
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: okay here, given maybe a little bit of an unfamiliarity
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: edge here. We'll see how he can handle the pressure
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: of a game like this. Of course, he's going to
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: have to go up against Garrett Cole, who's obviously the
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: way more established pitcher. and the better pitcher. 3.41 ERA, 1.09 whip.
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: He's been better at home as well, 3.35 home ERA.
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: He gave up four home runs in his last outing
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: at San Diego, which is not good because that's a
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: pitcher-friendly ballpark, although he pitched fairly well in that game otherwise.
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate, doesn't walk anybody, has
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: a high strikeout rate as well. We know Cole is good.
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's had a really good career. He's not
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: quite as good as he used to be, but he
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: is still very solid. 5.1 strikeout walk ratio is really good. 9.2
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: Ks per nine is still pretty good, even though it's
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: lower than what he was able to do in the past.
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: Against the Mets, they have a lot of at-bats against them,
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: 143 Ks. Only a. 224 average, which is low, but
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: they've hit him for power. They have 10 home runs
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: against him. Marcus Simeon has done a lot of damage
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: power-wise against him. They have a. 764 OPS against him,
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: 33 strikeouts, 10 walks. I'm still kind of thinking the
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: under might make the most sense in this one. I mean,
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: you have two good bullpens here, and I think the
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: starting pitching might be good enough on both sides for
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: that to happen. The money seems like it doesn't agree.
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: 80% of the tickets, 94% of the cash going over
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: eight or eight and a half here. But yeah, I
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: kind of lean under here. The money's also strongly indicating
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: on the Mets. 91% of the tickets are on the Yankees,
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: but of course they're a really heavy favorite, minus 190.
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: So if you're talking about value, yeah, there probably is
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: some on the Mets. I mean, you're getting a pitcher
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: who's been pretty solid in Thornton. You're getting him as
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: a huge underdog like this. 62% of the cash on
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: the Mets. I'm not going to disagree with the Mets.
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: I mean, you could maybe play them first five here
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: and hope that Thornton can just battle. Take them on
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: the run line, half run in the first five. Maybe
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: Thornton will be able to duel in the game and
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: keep it close. That's kind of what you're banking on.
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: I don't think I'd really want to back the Mets'
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: bullpen against the Yankees' bullpen, though. Although, they might be
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: able to hold up. I mean, both bullpens are pretty good.
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh and the Chicago Cubs... Cubs won 12-2 yesterday, despite
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: being in a return home spot. Not good for Pittsburgh, obviously.
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: I believe Pittsburgh was going to have Ashcraft pitch that game,
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: and then they switched their pitcher out, right? I forget
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: who they pitched yesterday. It was somebody else, though, against Imanaga,
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: and Imanaga had the upper hand yesterday. Will the Cubs
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: be able to keep doing this? I don't know. I mean, Pittsburgh...
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: This is one series where a team like Pittsburgh was
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: out of it. They're still going to get up for
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: a game like this, especially when they got embarrassed yesterday.
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: You've got to think Pittsburgh is at least going to
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: show up with motivation, try to get one here against
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: their division rival. Cubs don't necessarily have to keep winning
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: these games, I wouldn't say. They're already in a wild-card spot,
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: although I think it's a matter of them battling against
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia for who's going to be the home team in
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: that wild-card series. As far as the bullpens, the Cubs,
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: I believe, are the slightly better bullpen. The Cubs used
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: two guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Pittsburgh, three. Pittsburgh
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: used more relief pitchers yesterday. Oh, yeah, that's right. They
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: kind of went with the bullpen game yesterday. Totel, I think,
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: was the guy that started the game yesterday. But they
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: didn't really use that many of their relief pitchers. Cubs
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: are number 14 in bullpen. Pittsburgh, number 19. So, yeah,
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: the Cubs are somewhat better there. The Cubs are the
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: number one offense. Pittsburgh, number six, tied with the Rays.
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh has had a little bit of a drop-off offensively.
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: This looks like it's a wind-blowing-out game in Wrigley, and
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: I can tell because the total is pretty high for
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: a game that involves Paul Skeens on the mound. Pittsburgh
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: has not decided to shut him down. He's still pitching,
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: and he said... His worst season, even though his numbers
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: don't look too bad, 3.83 ERA, 1.15 whip, but by
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: his standards, this is a bad season. He's a little
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: bit worse on the road, 4.01 road ERA. He shut
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: out Anaheim for five and a third last time out,
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: but his strikeout rate has kind of been low. He's
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: had some walk issues here recently. I don't know what's
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: going on with him, man. There's something off about him.
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: We've seen his velocity not be right in some of
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: these starts. It looked like he got it back, but
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: Maybe that's not the case. There's something clearly not quite
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: right with him here. He does have a low hit
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: rate still. He does have a pretty low walk rate
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: and high strikeout rate, but it's not the Skeens elite
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: numbers that we saw the last two seasons. It's not
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: even close. He's got a four strikeout walk ratio and
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: a 10.5 strikeouts per nine. And when that's considered to
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: be bad by your standards, yeah, that's a good thing. Oh,
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: my God. Skeens is only a very good pitcher this year,
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: not an elite pitcher. Oh, shit. Skeens against the Cubs
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: has been pretty good, 125 at-bats, 51 strikeouts is a lot,
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: 15 walks, 240 average, 670 OPS. Those numbers are good
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: across the board. I expect Skeens will pitch well in
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: this game, but it's hard to say given what he's
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: done this season. Clay Holmes is on the other side
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: of this, pitching for the Cubs. He's been good, 2.83 ERA, 1.12 whip.
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: He spent most of the season with the Mets, got injured,
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: In the Mets-Yankees series earlier in the season, in a
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: game where we had the under on the show, he
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: took a line drive off his leg, broke his leg,
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: and then he continued to pitch. And he threw like
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: 20-something more pitches on a broken leg. Good for him,
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: I guess. But he is back, and he's been pretty
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: good since coming back. He's now on the Cubs instead
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: of the Mets because I believe they traded him. He's
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: got a 1.77 home ERA this year, so he's been
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: good at home. Some of that with the Mets, some
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: of that with the Cubs. Last time out, he was
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: absolutely terrible on the road against Miami. I don't know
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: what that was. I mean, Miami, not really that prolific
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: of an offense, and that was a pitcher-friendly ballpark. No
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: idea what happened to Holmes there, because since joining the Cubs,
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: he had not allowed more than one earned run in
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: any of his starts, except for the first one at
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: Kansas City. Since then, he had not allowed any I
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: think he'll bounce back because after that last bad road start,
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: he came home and he had a really good one.
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: So to me, it seems like he is going to
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: bounce back and have a good start here. He's got
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: a low hit rate this season. His walk rate's a
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: little bit questionable and his strikeout rate's not very good.
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: So the advanced analytics guys will jab at that 2.2
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio isn't very good 6.8 strikeout per nine
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: also not that good holmes gets a lot of ground
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: balls and that's how he gets out of these jams
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: that he sometimes puts himself in but his whip is
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: good and that's one thing that i look for like
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: how many guys are you even putting on base and
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: he's not really putting that many guys on base so
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: i don't think he's that bad and he does have
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: pretty good numbers against pittsburgh not a huge sample 26
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: at bats 192 average 622 ops Most of their hitters
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: have faced him. Four to three strikeout walk ratio. So
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: I think this game looks like an under, but you
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: can tell the wind is blowing out because this is
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: a Paul Skeens game, and the total is at nine.
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: And Holmes gets some respect in the market as well.
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: And you're going to put this pitching matchup with a
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: total of nine? Yeah, that means the wind's blowing out
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: in Wrigley. So that worries me. And the money's all
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: coming in on the over here. 58% of tickets on
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: the under, 72% of the cash on the over. I
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: think the last time I tried to play an under
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: in a wind-blowing-out game like this, it did not go well,
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: so I will not do that. I will pass, although
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: it seems like an under type of game, but... These
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: Wrigley win games can get crazy, man, so I don't
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: want to do it, and the money is back in
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh really strongly. 70% of the tickets are on the Cubs.
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: The public doesn't even want Paul Skeens, man, and you're
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: going to get Skeens as an underdog here. The Cubs
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: are minus 120-something here, although that's a full game, of course.
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: That includes the bullpens, too. I agree with Pittsburgh, kind
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: of in a bounce-back spot after that ugly loss yesterday. Skeens,
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: you've got to think he's still the better of these
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: two pitchers, really. He's at least the one with the
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: way higher ceiling. I'll agree with Pittsburgh here. If you're
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: going to do Pittsburgh, I would do first five, though.
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh money line, and they might be a favorite in
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: the first five, because it is Skeens, but it'll be
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: close to a pick-em. Price would be my guess, and
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: you don't usually get Skeens that cheap anywhere. So I
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: think that's what I would do. I would take Pittsburgh
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: in the first five or the under, but the under
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: does worry me given the wind situation. Baltimore at Toronto.
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: I almost put this one on my card. I don't
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: know if I could really back a bullpen game, man.
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: That's my issue. Maybe I'm too old school. Toronto lost
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: yesterday in a return home spot. Difficult spot. They were
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: coming back from a long three-series road trip, coming back
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: home from the West Coast. They got caught yesterday by Baltimore.
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: Baltimore's right behind them right now. One game behind them.
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: So Baltimore's still going to keep playing with effort here.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: And Toronto is still fighting for that last wild... Both
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: of these teams fighting for that last wild card spot.
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: It's between these two teams and Cleveland right now, kind of.
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: And I guess... Some of the AL West teams are... Well,
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: the AL West and AL Central, I guess, have some
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: other teams kind of in the mix. I guess it
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: would mostly be... Maybe Texas would be the next team
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: back from that. I'm not sure. But this should be
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: a bounce-back spot. typically this would be a bounce back
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: spot for a team like Toronto when you return home
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: and you have that negative spot you have that bad
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: game you get your stuff done that you need to
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: get done at home and you a lot of times
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: you bounce back and you do a lot better in
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: the next game and I do actually think Toronto will
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: do that in this game so I do like Toronto
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: in this one. I believe Toronto also has the better bullpen,
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: but they better because they're going with a bullpen game
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: in this one. They did use four relief pitchers yesterday,
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: but it is September call-ups, so we have extra relief
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: pitchers on every staff here. Baltimore has five. Baltimore used
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: five relief pitchers yesterday. Toronto's number 17 in bullpen. Baltimore's
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: number 11, but Toronto's bullpen ERA is still better. So
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: I think their bullpen is the better of the two,
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: although they're both decent bullpens. Baltimore is probably the better offense.
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: Let me see. Toronto's been bad. Toronto's 27. Yeah, Baltimore's 19.
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: Baltimore's going with Kyle Braddish here. He's had some good
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: seasons in the past, but this year he hasn't really
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: been that good. 3.91 ERA is pretty good, but 1.42
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: whip indicates he has not been that good, putting a
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: lot of guys on base. He's been kind of bad
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: on the road. 4.45 road ERA with a 3.02 opponent
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: batting average on the road. That is not good. He's
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: been having some short outings recently, not really pitching that well,
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: not really in good form here. His team has lost
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: five of his last seven starts as well, so that's
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: not really a good trend. He's got a hit rate
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: that's not really that great. His walk rate is definitely
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: too high, and that's been his main issue this year.
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: The walks have been way too much of an issue.
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is also not really that good. 2.1
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, way lower than what he's posted in
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: the past. He's been a talented pitcher, man. He kind
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: of got derailed by injuries the last couple of years.
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: This season hasn't been that great for him, although he's
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: obviously capable of pitching better than this. But the walk
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: rate has been a huge problem this year. 8.3 strikeout
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: per nine is also kind of lower than what he's
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: posted in the past as well. He's also not good
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: against Toronto. They have 88 at-bats against him, 341 average,
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: 937 OPS, 10 to 11 strikeout walk ratio. None of
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: these numbers are good. So, yeah, I don't think Braddish
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: is going to pitch well here. He's not good on
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: the road. He's not good against Toronto. I know they're
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: not a good offense, but it looks like a bounce-back
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: spot for Toronto, and I'd back Toronto's bullpen game over
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: Bradish here. Spencer Miles will be the opener here, I guess.
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: He's been good. He's used to this role. They've had
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: him be the opener many times this year at this point,
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: and Toronto does well. In fact, Miles, look at the
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: games that he's pitched in. They've won eight of the
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: last nine times he's pitched, so that's a decent trend there.
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: Am I talking myself into this? I don't know, man.
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: I like Toronto in this one for sure. They have
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: 55% of tickets, 90% of the cash on them. They're
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: right around a pick-em price here. Very, very tempting. The
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: money's coming in on the over. You could also take
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: Toronto over their team total and just get them to
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: score against Braddish. Total's 8.5. I think you'll need them
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: to score 5 if you do that, which I know
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: it's Toronto. They can't really hit well, so it's a
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: little bit of an ask for a team like them.
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: I might be sold on this because of the trends.
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: They win when Miles is in there. It's always a
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: bullpen game with him in there. Braddish has not been good.
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: They haven't been good behind him recently. Yeah, you know what?
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: The trends kind of support him, man. Baltimore keeps losing
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: when Braddish pitches. Toronto keeps winning when Miles opens. Does
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: that mean you just choose both starters must start here?
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: Because usually with a bullpen game, I say don't pick
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: the starter. Like, just pick Bradish from a start on
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: one side and don't pick the starter on the other side.
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: You know what? Yeah, let's do it. Let's evolve. Let's adapt.
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: I'm going to have a bunch of plays today. It's
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: going to be really annoying to get these Instagram videos out.
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: Let me see what the, what are we looking at with,
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: what does Action Network say with the Jays? Yeah, they
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: got the money slightly coming in on them as well.
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: full game you can get it right at minus 109
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: I see out there right now let's do it whatever
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: we'll take Toronto hold on I mean it's a good
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: spot for it at least so yeah alright I haven't
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: had much baseball going on I've been treading lightly the
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: last couple days in baseball but yeah let's take Toronto
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: on the money line I like it play on the
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: fly but hopefully the goal is to just get a
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: winning day out of all this so you know Yes, well,
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: people should not be that excited when I add a
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: play on the fly because usually it's not that strong.
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: It wasn't strong enough to make my card, so.
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: Yes. Yeah, that is true. Yeah, the J is getting
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: the money. All right. But yeah, I mean, that means
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: it wasn't strong enough for me to put it on
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: my card initially, so I don't know. Anaheim at Washington...
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: My first reaction to this I think is going to
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: probably be my best lean in this game. Washington won
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: yesterday despite being in a return home spot. These teams
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: are both just playing out the stretch here. So as
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: far as the side, it's kind of difficult to figure out.
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: But I kind of like the starting pitching in this
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: game at least. I do not like the bullpens. Washington
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: used two guys out of the bullpen. Anaheim used four,
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: but these are not good bullpens. Anaheim is 22nd, which
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: I guess– is not too bad. Washington's worse at 26.
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: Washington is one of the worst bullpens. Washington is a
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: good offense, number three. Anaheim is absolutely not. They're dead last, 30th.
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: Washington does play a lot of high-scoring games at home,
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: but their offense, I think, isn't as good as it
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: was earlier in the season. Anaheim's isn't good at all,
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: and I like both pitchers here. Walbert Urania's pitching for
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: the Angels. He's been good, man. I told you early
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: on this season, this guy is good. He's still only 22,
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: and he's put together a pretty good season here. 2.74
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: ERA and 1.21 whip. You'd like to see that be better,
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: but this has been really good for a rookie season.
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: Even though he's better at home, he's not even really
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: that bad on the road. 3.21 road ERA. He's been
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: really good in his last two starts. He allowed two
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: runs in his last 15 innings against the Yankees and
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: the Pirates. Those are offenses that are Not bad, even
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: though Judge wasn't back at that point, but really good
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: outings from Urania there. 12 strikeouts, one walk, and only
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: eight hits allowed over that stretch as well. Yeah, he's
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: in really good form right now. He's good. He's got
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: a really low hit rate. The only number that's not
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: good from him this year is the walk rate. Strikeout
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: rate is all right, too, and he gets a lot
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: of ground balls. But, yeah, he's got to fix the
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: walk issue because his strikeout walk ratio is still pretty
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: bad at 1.9%. And it's mostly because the walk numbers
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: is really bad. The strikeout per nine isn't too bad
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: at 8.5. He's got to become less wild, although you
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: can see that that's happening. At least his last two starts,
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: he's been pretty walk-free, and he has literally been walk-free. Walk-free,
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: not something that we want offenders to do. He's at
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: Washington here. Washington has not faced him before, so he
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: does have an extra advantage potentially here. Like I say,
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: with these young pitchers that have talent, they tend to
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: have a little bit of an extra edge if the
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: opposing lineup hasn't seen them before. So I think Urania
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: should pitch well here. Andrew Alvarez is pitching for Washington.
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: He's been I think he's pretty good as well, although
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: his whip isn't really that good. He's got a 3.6 ERA. 1.32
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: whip is not really that good, like I said. But
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: there are some things to like about him. Although he's
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: a little bit older, 27, and this has been only
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: his second season in the majors. He was pretty good
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: in five starts last year. This year, he is a
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: little bit worse at home. 3.88 home ERA. Still not bad, though.
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: Wasn't great last time out at the Dodgers, but maybe
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: you just give him a pass for that because... It's
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: not easy to pitch against the Dodgers. He pitched well
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: enough to not put his team completely out of the game,
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: at least. He was pitching fairly well throughout the month
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: of August, though his walk rate was a little bit questionable.
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate. The walk rate, again,
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: with both these pitchers, it's the walk rate that's the
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: one issue with them. His strikeout rate is okay. Both
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: pitchers are actually good ground ball pitchers as well. Help
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: them get out of jams as long as their infielders
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: can field. But yeah, he's got a 2.1 pitch. Strikeout
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, which is not that good because, again, the
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: walks are kind of a problem here. 8.6 strikeout per nine.
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: Anaheim basically hasn't faced him before. Only Siri has ever
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: faced him before. And he's 0 for 2 with a
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: strikeout against him. So I think both starting pitchers have
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: the edge here. They're both unfamiliar to the opposing offenses.
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: They're both pretty good. So I like the first five
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: under in this one. It's a public over here, 88%
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: on the over, 88% of the tickets, I mean, 94%
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: of the cash. I don't know what to take away
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: from that, really. But the full game total is 8, 8.5.
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: First five, you're going to be looking at probably 4,
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: maybe 4.5 here. I like that. I mean, I think
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: both pitchers can get it done in that one. Got
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: some questions about the walks and whatever. I don't think
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: I quite want to get there with that one, but yeah,
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: that's the way I would play it if I was
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: going to. First five under, and I think that's one
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: of the better options today out of a board that
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: I don't think has that many good options. Washington's also
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: taking the money. They're around minus 116 here. 63% of tickets,
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: 95% of the cash on them. I don't think I
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: agree with that. I think I prefer Anaheim, to be honest.
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: I think Anaheim has the better starter and the better bullpen, actually,
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: so I kind of like Anaheim in that one, but, um,
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: yeah I think the first five under is the way
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: better play next game up is going to be the
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: one play that I actually had on the card already
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: and this one not yet people are not going to
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: want to jump on board with this one I can
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: tell you that right now we're In the first five
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: only because their bullpen's not as good. You can get
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: this at plus 115. And I would say, you know,
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: also put a little bit of it on the money.
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: Or no, sorry, it's minus 115. Sorry, hang on. Plus
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: 115 would be kind of, that would be an insane price. Now,
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: you have to pay a little bit of juice for this.
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: But I would say sprinkle a little bit of it
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: on the money line too. Like make it like a
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: spread bet. Maybe put 10% of it on the money line. Yeah,
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: in the first five only, of course. We're avoiding their
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: bullpen here because San Diego definitely has a better bullpen. Now,
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: San Diego, they've won a bunch of games in a row,
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: four or five games in a row, whatever it is.
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: They're hot right now, and they still got to win
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: because Arizona is keeping pace with them right now. Those
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: teams are essentially fighting for the last wildcard spot in
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: the National League. They got to keep winning, but this
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: is kind of a division rivalry here, man. You know,
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: San Francisco is going to get up for a game
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: like this and try to play spoilers. I think they
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: will be motivated here because they don't really have much
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: else to play for this season. And I know I'm
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: fading San Diego's best pitcher here, but that's the way
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: that this works out here, man. As far as the
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: bullpens are concerned, San Diego did use more of their
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: relief staff yesterday. These four guys, including Mason Miller, um,
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: they used basically all their better relievers came into the
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: game yesterday. Um, Moray Hone and Matsui also came into
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: the game yesterday. So I guess you could theoretically go
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: full game with this too. San Francisco only used one
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: guy out of the bullpen, so their bullpen's more rested,
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: but I just don't trust their bullpen enough. San Francisco's
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: the 24th best bullpen. They're not anywhere near as good
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: as they were last year. San Diego's ERA is almost
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: a run better. They're number five. They're definitely a top
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: five bullpen. So I will avoid the bullpens here. But
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: I will fade Michael King in this one, even though
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: I think he's pretty good. He's got a three ERA, 1.17 whip.
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: The advanced analytics guys don't like him because he's not
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: a big strikeout guy, but you're going to see that
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: this is a matchup play here. And I guess slightly
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: a situational play, but it's mostly a matchup play. King
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: has a 3.29 road ERA, so he's a little bit
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: worse on the road, but obviously not bad. But he's
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: been walking some guys here. His walk number hasn't exactly
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: been great recently. He's walked multiple guys in his last
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: four outings in all of them. three in his last two,
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: even though he didn't give up any runs in the
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: last two, so he's kind of in good form here,
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: but the walks have been bad. Those games were at
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati and then at home against the Yankees. Yes, he
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: did pitch well in both those starts, but the walks
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: are a little bit of an issue. He is pretty
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: good at being unhittable. His hit rate's low, but his
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: walk rate's kind of high. His strikeout rate is kind
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: of mediocre, which is why the advanced analytics guys kind
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: of have an issue here. He's got a 2.2 strikeout
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, which is the lowest he's ever posted. So
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: that's not exactly great. 7.7 Ks per nine, also his
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: worst that he's ever posted. So there are some things
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: to be a little bit concerned about here in King's profile.
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: The main thing that I am fading here, the reason
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: why I'm fading him is he's not good against San Francisco.
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: Although they only have four guys to face him, Devers
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: really tees off on him. They got 21 at-bats against him,
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: a 381 average and 1202 OPS, 3-7 strikeout walk ratio. Although, again,
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: most of this damage is Devers. If you want hitter props,
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: you could play Devers here to go hits plus runs
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: plus RBIs over the total, whatever. That's the way that I...
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: Would recommend playing a hitter prop. Devers has an 11
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: at bat sample size there, five for 11 with two
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: home runs, four walks, three strikeouts. So I would expect
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: him to do some offensive damage here. And I am
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: going to back Cesar Perdomo. Who the hell is this guy?
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: He's listed as a relief pitcher, but I think he's
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: going to start. I think he started his last game.
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: He didn't start the previous game. He came out of
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: the bullpen in what was his major league debut in
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: a crazy 13-12 loss to Pittsburgh, but it wasn't his fault.
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: He actually kind.
• 34:08
  Speaker 5: Of.
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: That was a game we lost on the under, by
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: the way. That was Skeens against Webb, and Perdomo came
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: in and actually... Cooled off Pittsburgh for a little while,
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: which is a decent sign. And then he actually made
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: a start last time on it. He was really solid
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: against the Mets. Six shutout innings against them. He's gone
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: 10 innings so far. Six hits allowed, one run allowed.
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: Two walks, eight strikeouts. Decent ground ball right here, too.
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: So he looks like he's actually possibly good. It's hard
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: to say.. 9 ERA,. 8 whip. This is going to
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: be his first home start, so hopefully the pressure isn't
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: too much for him. I think he might do all
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: right against a San Diego lineup that's not exactly that good.
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: And I forgot to talk about the hitting, but yeah,
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: they're ranked below San Francisco. San Francisco's 17th in offense,
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: tied with the Rangers. San Diego is 23rd, although I
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: still think San Diego is the better offense out of
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: these two, but there's not that much of a gap here.
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: Perdomo might be able to do well here because San
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: Diego's never faced him before, and he looks like he's
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: pitching pretty well here, so he looks like he does
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: have some talent. So I'm going to back the young
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: guy that's got talent and unfamiliarity here against the guy
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: that has bad matchup numbers, even though I wish it
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: was a bigger sample size for King there. But we're
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: fading the public here by doing this as well. 88%
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: of the tickets, 89% of the cash on San Diego,
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: and San Diego's just a really hefty price at minus 160-something.
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: So some of this... is kind of the pricing structure
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: of this. I think San Diego is too heavily priced
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: in a game like this with this particular matchup. And
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: it's because everybody knows San Diego still has to win.
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: So the pressure is really on them. And you're asking
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: them to cover as, not really cover, but you're asking
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: them to lay like a really, really steep price here
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: if you want to take them. So I'm not going
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: to do that. I'm going to take San Francisco in
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: the first five. And if it's tied at the end
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: of five, you'll win this bet. And your money line
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: portion of it will push. So I don't mind that either.
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: Did that happen? San Francisco, I mean, they had their
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: outfielders or whatever were like humping each other. So that
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: was pretty gay. I don't know. Let me see.
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: Next up, I don't even want to talk about this,
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: the fucking Red Sox. Three losses in a row, and
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: they got a... Dude, you have to win these games
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: when you're at home as like a minus 200 favorite
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: in every one of these games against the fucking Angels
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: and the fucking Royals, and the Red Sox are going
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: to lose every fucking game. Yesterday, they had one of
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: their better pitchers on the mound, Sonny Gray, and he
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: was fine enough. And what happened? Oh, yeah, the Red
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: Sox didn't fucking score in the game. So that's really
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: fucking great. They lost 3-2. Red Sox bullpen still remains good.
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: These three guys out of the bullpen yesterday, I know Moran,
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: he was in a jam at the end of that
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: game of the night. Then he got out of it.
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: So it was like maybe the Red Sox are going
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: to actually be able to do this because the Royals
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: bullpen is a complete disaster. So they're only down one run.
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: You would think the Red Sox would have been able
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: to score a run somewhere there and escape and steal
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: the game. That did not happen. Kansas City used four relievers,
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: all of them ass, I assume, and the Red Sox
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: still couldn't score against them, even though the Red Sox
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: are the number one bullpen in WIP and they're the
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: number two bullpen in ERA. Kansas City is the last
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: ranked bullpen in WIP and the third worst ERA now. Sorry. Congratulations,
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: Kansas City, because the Red Sox couldn't fucking hit you.
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: You now have a better ERA out of the bullpen
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: than Washington does. Isn't that just great? Still, we're looking
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: at one of the best bullpens in baseball against one
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: of the worst. and the Red Sox still could not
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: use that to their advantage yesterday, and it was because
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: their offense didn't do anything. Red Sox have the better
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: offense in this game as well. They're number nine. Kansas
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: City is one of the worst road offenses in baseball,
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: and they didn't exactly tear the cover off the ball yesterday,
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: scoring three runs. They're number 15 in offense, but like
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: I said, they're not as good on the road. Looking
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: at this pitching matchup, the Red Sox should win this game.
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: It's Oh, my God. The pitcher that I hate the most,
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: Randy Dobnock, pitching for the Royals. This guy still sucks.
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry. He has a 2.54 ERA. I know that
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: looks good. He's from South Park, which is, you know,
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: throwing me off. Not Colorado. Pennsylvania. 1.32 whip. That's got
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: to tell you he's not as good as his ERA looks. Like,
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: his ERA should be 5 based on the amount of
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: guys that he puts on base. He's got a. 92
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: road ERA, though, so he's been... Kind of legitimate on
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: the road, although his walk rate is still not good there.
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: He pitched pretty well last time out against Toronto, but
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: that's Toronto. Their offense isn't good. In fact, his two
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: quality starts that he's had recently, they both came against Toronto.
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: Then he had another one against Anaheim. That wasn't even
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: a quality start against Anaheim. Because he didn't make it
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: six innings, but he pitched well there. But yeah, so
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: he's pitching well against turd offenses pretty much. Okay, well
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox should be able to fucking hit this guy.
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: Because they're not that bad of an offense, even though
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: they looked like it yesterday. Dobnok, his hit rate's not
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: that good. His walk rate's too high. His strikeout rate's
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: not very good. He gets a lot of ground balls.
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: but this is a guy who has not stuck in
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: the league, and there's a reason for that. His career
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: numbers are not very good, although I guess his career
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: numbers are good enough that maybe... He should stick around
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: in the league somewhere. I guess he's maybe serviceable sometimes,
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: kind of. He's got a 1.9 strikeout walk ratio. I mean,
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: that's pretty bad. 6.1 strikeout per nine, that's not that
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: good either. The Red Sox only have one hitter who's
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: ever faced him, which is Keiner Falefa, who was back
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: after he was on the injured list for a while.
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: And he's killed Dobnock. He's two for three with a
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: double and a home run against him. No strikeouts, no walks.
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox should be able to get some runs
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: against this guy, man. He is not a good pitcher.
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: He's not what it looks like, what his ERA makes
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: him look like. Ron Yersuarez is pitching for the Red Sox.
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: He's the better of the two pitchers, although he hasn't
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: really been as good since he came back from his
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: groin injury. Although they... They did limit him early on
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: when he came back. He's had a decent season, though. 3.44 ERA, 1.22 whip.
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: You'd like to see me a little bit better, though.
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: He's not quite as good at home. 4.14 home ERA.
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: Really good last time out, though, at Baltimore. Seven-inning shutout.
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: So maybe he's coming back into form here after he
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: was pretty bad against the Yankees the start before that.
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: And he really had not totally gotten it together since
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: the groin injury. His walk rate had been way too high.
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: But maybe he's coming back into form here. Good start
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: in September, at least. His hit rate is okay. His
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: walk rate's not too bad. His strikeout rate is okay
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: as well. So his overall numbers on the season, not
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: too bad. 3.1 strikeout walk ratio is all right. 8.4
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine. It's pretty much what you expect from
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: him based on what his career has been. His numbers
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: against the Royals are reasonable. In 31 at-bats, 258 average allowed,
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: 730 OPS, 9-4 strikeout walk ratio is not good, but
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: the rest of these numbers are fine. Hasn't allowed any
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: home runs, even though the OPS you'd like to see
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: be a little bit lower there. I know the money
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: is fading the Red Sox here, though. Some of it
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: has to do with the price. They're minus 220-something here,
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: which went up for minus 180-something. So some money initially
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: did drive that number up. But now we see 95%
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: of the tickets on the Red Sox, 61% of the cash.
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: So the money's coming in against them, and it's coming
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: in towards Kansas City. I don't love it at all.
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: I do not love seeing that market. The Red Sox
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: have to get at least one of these games here, man.
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, they should be winning the majority of these
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: games where they're favored like this against these bad teams.
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: What are we doing here, man? And in this series,
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox better pitchers are all showing up in
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: this series. Gray yesterday, Suarez today, who's the worst of
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: the three pitching, because I assume Toley is up next tomorrow,
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure. So... Let's fucking go. Win a fucking
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: game against the fucking Royals. How about that? This game
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: also could be an over, to be honest. It looks
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: like the money is kind of indicating that way. Eight
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: and a half is the total. I don't know. It
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: wouldn't surprise me if the bats kind of break out
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: in this game a little bit. I don't have much
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: on that game, though. Dodgers at Miami. Miami lost yesterday 6-2.
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: Dodgers have won a bunch of games in a row.
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: So the Dodgers are obviously the team that's playing the
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: better baseball here, and they are the better team. Miami
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: probably has come to terms with the fact that they
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: are not making the playoffs, although they're still probably going
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: to get up for a game against L.A. The Dodgers
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: used four relief pitchers yesterday. Miami used three. These are
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: both okay bullpens. Miami's number nine, although their ERA is
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: above four, which I don't really love to see. The
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: Dodgers are slightly better ERA-wise. They're ranked 12th, but I
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: would say the Dodgers are the better bullpen here. Dodgers
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: are the number two offense, and Miami's number eight. I
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: think it might be more significant of an edge there
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: for the Dodgers than that would indicate. Dodgers also have
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: Tyler Glasnow pitching this game. He's good. I mean, again,
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: just like Snell yesterday, these two guys, just like last year,
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: they were injured for the majority of the season. And then, oh, yeah,
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: they're no longer injured. It's September now. Let's have them
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: get a few starts in and then pitch really fresh
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: in the playoffs. It's just so stupid, man. It's smart, though,
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: what the Dodgers are doing. He's got a 3.12 ERA,.
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: 88 whip. Those are good numbers, obviously. Good on the
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: road as well, better on the road. 2.12 road ERA.
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: Wasn't exactly great last time out against Washington, but it
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: was still fine. He had a lot of strikeouts there.
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: He got a little bit unlucky to allow four runs there,
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: although he did have three walks in that one. But
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: you look at his overall numbers, low hit rate, high
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate, pretty low walk rate. There's nothing really bad here.
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: He pitched March, April, and then into early May before
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: he got hurt. And then since he's come back... Yeah, actually,
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, since he's come back, he's only been, I.
• 44:34
  Speaker 4: Don't know.
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: It looks like he's been kind of mediocre, but I
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: don't even really want to say that because he's gone
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: at least five innings in every start. He's allowed four
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: or fewer in runs than all of them, but he
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: has pretty good command numbers here, 21-4 strikeout walk ratio,
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: and he's only allowed 14 hits in whatever that is,
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: 18 innings or something, so that's not too bad. Did
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: I get that right? I think I got that right. Math.
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: Glasnow has also been pretty good against Miami. They have
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: 16 at-bats against them, which is not a lot, but
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: the majority of their hitters have faced them. They do
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: have one home run in here from Ruiz. That's the
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: only extra base hit against them. 188 average, 691 OPS,
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: 8-3 strikeout walk ratio. So, yeah, I think he's going
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: to pitch well here. He's a very good pitcher. It's
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: a pitcher-friendly park. Miami hasn't really been able to do
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: much against him. The battle of the Tylers is happening
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: here as Tyler Phillips is on the other side from
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: Miami as they've kind of turned him into a starter.
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: He's actually been okay. 3.51 ERA, 1.33 whip is not
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: really that good. Does indicate that his ERA should be
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: higher than it is. He's got a 2.36 home ERA.
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: He's been good at home. He's been better at home.
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: Last time out he was okay and picked up a
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: win against the Cubs at home. That's not easy to do. Um,
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: he's kind of mediocre though. He doesn't really go that
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: deep into these outings, but generally he's not going to
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: like kill his team when he's out there. Um, he's
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: got a, an okay hit rate. Uh, his walk rate
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: is okay. Strikeout rate is low though. So yeah, advanced
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: analytics won't like that. 1.9 strikeout walk ratio. That's not good. 7.3
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine is not great, but it's better than
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: what he's posted in the past. Um, And believe it
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: or not, he's not that bad against L.A. They have
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: 29 at-bats against him, 276 average, 654 OPS, 5-3 strikeout
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. Phillips might be able to do okay here.
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think this game is probably an under.
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: I think that's what I would look at in this
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: game if I was going to play it. I mean,
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers do have the better pitcher here, but the
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: money's coming in against them because you're having to lay
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: minus 200 with them or it's down to like minus
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: 180 or whatever. 92% of the tickets, 60% of the
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: cash on LA, so the money's fading them here. The
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: money looks like it is on the under, though. 63%
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 74% of the cash on the under. The
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: total is low, somewhere between 8 and 7.5 here. I
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: think that's what I would do. I think you have
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: two bullpens that are good enough to kind of hold
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: it up here. I think both starters might do well
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: enough to get that thing under, so that would be
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: my lean in that game. Not going to put it
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: on my card. I trust Glasnow a lot more than
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: I trust Phillips. I think... L.A. should probably somehow get
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: out of that game with a win, but who knows
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: because L.A. has kind of been on cruise control, except
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: recently they've turned it back on again. All right, Cleveland
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: and Minnesota. I mean, this is a game with some
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: playoff implications here. Cleveland won yesterday. Minnesota was in a
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: return home spot, so kind of a difficult spot. I
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: liked Cleveland yesterday. It was Messick on the mound for them.
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: Catching Minnesota in the return home spot. I didn't actually
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: put it on the card. I was right about that
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: game in both ways. I said Cleveland in the under,
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: and both of those were correct in that game. With
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: a 5-2, Cleveland wins. So, obviously, I mean, it's good
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: that my gauge was right on the game. I mean,
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: you're going to have games like that if you're being selective.
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: You're going to be right about games that are not
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: on your card. It's just the way that it is. Now,
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: Minnesota would kind of be in a bounce back spot
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: here after that. As I talked about with Toronto, when
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: a team loses in that return home spot like that,
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: a lot of times they bounce back and play better
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: in the next game. Cleveland is way ahead of Minnesota.
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: Cleveland needs to keep winning, but they're only a half
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: game out of the division lead right now. Minnesota, they're
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: pretty much not going to make the playoffs here, and
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: I told you they wouldn't. At the very least, they're
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: going to show up here because they lost yesterday. It's
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: a divisional rivalry here in Minnesota. They got at least
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: a chance to try to play spoiler against Cleveland here.
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: And Cleveland, by the way, they're in the wild card
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: race too. I think they're leading in the wild card
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: race as well. Yeah, I'm pretty sure they are. I'm
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: pretty sure Cleveland's in the last wild card spot right now.
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: So both of these teams, Cleveland and Chicago, might both
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: make the playoffs here the way this is going right now.
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: although the White Sox are going to have to start
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: playing a little bit better here. Anyway, this might be
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: a Minnesota game here. The situation looks like it favors them.
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: It's kind of a bounce-back spot for them. I think
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: they might show up, try to play spoiler. Cleveland used
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: four relief pitchers yesterday, but I'm not going to do
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: anything with Minnesota's bullpen. They used whatever that is, four,
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: I think, as well. Minnesota's bullpen is not good. They're
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: number 29. I mean, they're not quite that bad, but
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: this is not a good bullpen. Cleveland is number 10.
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: Cleveland's bullpen's been good recently. So, yeah, Cleveland definitely has
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen here. Minnesota's got the better offense. They're
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: number 10, tied with Houston. Cleveland is number 28. Cleveland
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: is going with a bullpen game here, though. It was
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: supposed to be Gavin Williams. It would be his turn
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: in the rotation, but he'd be on only four days
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: rest here because Cleveland has not had a day off.
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: So I was like, oh, did they push Williams back
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: to tomorrow? But they didn't. Bybee looks like he's getting
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: the start tomorrow against Joe Ryan, my favorite fucker. Every
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: time I back Joe Ryan, he loses. Um, maybe an
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: under in that game tomorrow. No, I don't know. Uh,
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: so Cleveland, they might be just skipping Williams in the
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: rotation to try to not overwork him or something. I
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: don't know what they're doing here. Cause they still need
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: to make the playoffs. So you'd think they would want
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: Williams in here. Cause he's one of the better pitchers.
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: It's supposed to be him next to the rotation. And, um,
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: Maybe they will pitch him tomorrow. Maybe they are just
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: going to shove everybody back. I don't know. But it
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: looks like he's not pitching here today because if he
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: was pitching, you'd think he would just start because they
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: don't use an opener in front of Williams. I don't know.
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: But they have Espino listed as their starter here. He's
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: not a starter. He's a relief pitcher. He's young. I mean,
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: his ERA is all right. His whip isn't really that good.
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: There's not really a whole lot to dig into here,
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: although he's a decent strikeout pitcher. But I think he's
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: only going to be in there one to two innings.
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: And it's going to be a Cleveland bullpen game here.
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I necessarily love that, even though
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: I'm backing the Toronto bullpen game here. Connor Prelip looks
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: like he's getting the start for Minnesota. He's a rookie.
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: He's been up and down here. 5.25 ERA, 1.36 WIP.
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: Those numbers are kind of in line with each other.
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: He's been better at home, though. 4.42 home ERA with
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: a good 220 opponent batting average at home. He's been
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: somewhat okay. He's been a little bit better in his
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: last couple starts again here. His last three starts have
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: kind of gone okay. One at the A's stadium, so
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: I guess give him credit for that. And then he
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: was able to do pretty well against Detroit a couple
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: times in a row here. His hit rate's a little
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: bit too high, but his walk rate, yeah, I mean
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: his walk rate's actually not really that great either, but
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: he does have a good strikeout rate. So he strikes
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: out guys at a decent rate. 2.9 strikeout walk ratio's
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: not that bad. 9.7 Ks per 9 is pretty solid.
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: So this guy does have some talent there. I think
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: he's at least better than his ERA makes him look.
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: He's been okay against Cleveland. In 29 at-bats, 241 average allowed.
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: 761 OPS is a little bit high. Giving up a
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: couple of home runs in here to the Italians. Pazana
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: and Rocchio. Eight strikeouts and three walks here. I kind
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: of lean Minnesota here, but it's Some of it's the situation. Uh,
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: some of it's that I just don't like bullpen games.
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: The money's all coming in on Cleveland, 66% of tickets,
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: 93% of the cash on Cleveland here. If it was
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: Williams pitching, I would not like Minnesota anywhere near as much.
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: I don't think, although I forget what his numbers are
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: like against Minnesota, but yeah, I don't know what's going
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: on here with this, but yeah. Um, I would slightly
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: leave Minnesota. I would do it only first five though.
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: Cause their bullpen is definitely not good. Um, Minnesota did
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: flip from a favorite to a dog, though. Cleveland flipped
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: to the favorite here. So it looks like some money
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: did definitely come in on Cleveland here. And the money's
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: also strongly backing the over 8.5 in that game. I
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: don't really have much on the total there. I mean,
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: I guess you could argue the pitching is just questionable
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: in the game, so maybe the over does make a
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: little bit more sense than the under in that game.
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: Houston and Tampa Bay... Tampa Bay got the win yesterday,
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: despite being in a return home spot and Houston really
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: needed to win too. Cause Houston, they're kind of going
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: to need to win their division probably to get into
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: the playoffs here. Although I guess they could get a
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: wild card. Um, so they kind of need this game
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: a little more, but Tampa, the Yankees are close to them, man.
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: So Tampa does need to keep winning and they were
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: able to hold pace with them yesterday with that win.
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: Cleveland is, or excuse me, Tampa is also really good
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: at home. Remember, um, Houston's kind of a... They're close
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: to a 500 team either way, but Tampa's very, very
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: good at home. Even in a return home spot, they
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: were able to get the win yesterday. Both these bullpens
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: are okay. Tampa Bay used two guys out of the
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: bullpen yesterday. Houston used three, so not a ton of
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: usage there. Tampa Bay's ranked fourth in bullpen whip, although
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: I still don't think they're that good. The ERA is
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: above four. Houston's ERA is also above four. They're ranked 13th.
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: I think we're looking at two... Okay, bullpens, like I said.
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: And these are offenses that are pretty capable. Tampa Bay,
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: number six. Caminero hit his 40th home run in the
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: game yesterday, so he's definitely raking. They're tied with Pittsburgh
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: in offense here. Houston's not that far behind at number 10,
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: tied with Minnesota. So, yeah, these are offenses that can
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: do some damage here. Peter Lambert getting the start for Houston.
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: He's been decent. This has been his only good season
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: that he's had. 3.67 ERA, 1.23 whip. He has been
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: kind of slowing down a bit recently, but he's been
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: pretty good on the road ERA-wise. Three road ERA. Even
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: though his opponent batting average is a little bit higher
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: on the road. It's a smaller sample size, though. Lambert
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: struggled throughout the month of August. He had too many walks,
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: although his strikeout rate was still there. Started to maybe
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: get a little bit better towards the end of the month,
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: although his walks were still an issue. But last time out,
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: he was really good against Arizona. Had a quality start there.
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: Took a loss in that game, but it was a
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: hard luck loss. Wasn't his fault. The offense didn't do
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: anything behind him. So he might be kind of coming
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: back into form here, even though I would say he
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: might have to worry about his innings count because he's
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: He has not thrown this many innings before in his career,
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: so he's getting up there a little bit. He's almost
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: at 140 right now. He does have a low hit rate.
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is the one bad number that he
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: has here. It's not a great walk rate. His strikeout
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: rate is decent, though. He's got a 2.4 strikeout walk ratio, though,
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: because his walk rate's too high. 8.8 strikeout per nine,
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: not bad, though. Lambert against Tampa Bay has been good
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: in 31 at-bats, 161 average allowed, 373 OPS, no extra
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: base hits. This is pretty dominant. Eight strikeouts, two walks.
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: Lambert's been good against Tampa Bay. They have not been
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: able to do much against him, so I think he
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: should pitch well here. Ian Seymour is pitching on the
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: other side here. Although I will say that Tampa Bay
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: does sometimes put an opener in front of them. So
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: if you're going to play this game, maybe you do
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: Lambert must start and don't pick a starter for Tampa.
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: Although I think Seymour will probably start. I mean, at
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: this point he's made 13 starts, although I guess it's
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: not guaranteed. Seymour was pitching fairly well throughout August. He
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: was really, really good with his command numbers in August.
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: Very high strikeout rate and hardly walked anybody, but he
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: was a little bit too hittable. And that kind of
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: caught up with him in his last game at Texas.
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: He didn't really pitch that well. So I'm worried he
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: might be going a little bit out of form here now,
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: although his previous couple starts were pretty good, though. He's
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: got a decent hit rate here. He doesn't really walk
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: many guys at all. His strikeout rate is very high.
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: So he definitely has a lot of strikeout stuff here. 4.2
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratios is good. 10.8 strikeout per nine is good.
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: So this guy definitely could strike guys out. Houston's barely
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: seen him before. Only Varshow has ever seen him. Former
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: Blue Jay, I believe. He's one for five with two strikeouts,
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: no walks against him. So Seymour might have a little
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: bit of an extra edge being unfamiliar here. I like
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: the under in this game. The money doesn't seem to
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: be agreeing, but the total's low, 7.5, 8. This one
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: was very, very close to making the cut for me.
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: 70% of tickets on the over, 94% of the cash
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: on the over. Money kind of indicating towards the over,
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: and it's indicating towards Houston. 77% of the tickets are
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: on Tampa, 77% of the cash on Houston. Tampa's about
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: a minus 140-something favorite here. Yeah, I could see the
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: argument for it. If you think this is going to
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: be a close game, You know, you grab the underdog,
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: and Houston is a little bit more desperate, I would say,
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: at this point here with their playoff positioning. Tampa's going
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: to make the playoffs, although I don't think they really
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: want to lose the AL East, which they've been atop
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: the entire season, although I keep telling you the Yankees
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: are actually better than Tampa, so I expect that at
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: some point the Yankees would overtake them, which would piss
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: me off because I want the Yankees fucking out, but whatever, man. Anyway, yeah,
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: I like the under mostly in that game. If I
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: was going to add another play to my card, yeah,
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: it's probably going to be this. It would be that one.
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: I like the under there. I don't know. There was
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: just something about my intuition on it. I was like,
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: I don't know. All right, let me see. What was
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: the other one? Oh, yeah, the other one that I said.
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: I like the under in the first five in Anaheim
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: and Washington as well, but I think I like this
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: one a little bit better. So, yeah, Houston, Tampa Bay,
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: under would be my lean there. All right, I'll be
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: right back, then I'll finish this off. And that will
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: be the show. And you guys need to go watch
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: my college football show that I did last night to
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: get all the college football stuff. I will be right back. Yep, inside,
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: I want to kill myself. We are on an 0-7
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight. It was
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: just complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going to start
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: off this show. Horrible Sunday. 1-5. I don't even know
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: what to tell you about that. I just don't want
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: to do this anymore. I have never seen anything like this, man.
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: with the slump continuing two straight losses not a good
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: day at all only four i just have not had
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: a good season man with weekends slump Then I'm on
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: and the slump continues. I've reached a new peak, actually.
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: I'm going to burn my Bruins hat, man. I don't
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: March 8th?
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: Is that what it is? I don't even know. It's
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man. I don't
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: know what day it is anymore. I don't even know
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: what day it is anymore, man. Back with you after
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: the worst day that I could possibly have. Back with
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: you as I always am. Until I die, at least.
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5,
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: the worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: you about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: Yes, that is the title of that song, I think.
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: I forget who actually made that song. One of the
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: Tower Gang listeners, I'm pretty sure, did. I can't remember
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: who it was, though. I apologize. Cincinnati and Milwaukee. Milwaukee
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: won the game yesterday 20-0. I mean, I did not
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: see that happening. Dustin May, I guess, was pretty good
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: in the game yesterday. Milwaukee's offense just totally unloaded. I
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: don't really see Milwaukee losing this game today either, even
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: though normally when I see a result like that, I
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: usually want to fade that in the next game because
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: the Reds got totally embarrassed. So you got to think
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: they're going to be more motivated here and not want
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: to let that stand and show up with more motivation here.
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: But Milwaukee, I mean, they're still kind of battling L.A.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: for the top spot here. And Milwaukee is, you know,
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: they might be on cruise control a little bit, though,
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: because they have a 10-game lead in the division here.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: But Milwaukee, they definitely have, I think they have a
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: pitching edge here, but they actually, it looks like they're
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: changing their pitcher here. Maybe they will announce that it
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: will be Harrison, though, but they're undecided on the board
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: here right now. So I don't know, man. Milwaukee definitely
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: has the better bullpen. Cincinnati used four guys out of
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: their bullpen yesterday. Milwaukee used one. Milwaukee very rested out
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen, and they're good. They're number seven, but
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: they're a top five bullpen. Cincinnati is number 25. Not
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: a good bullpen. Hitting-wise, the Brewers are also the better team.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: They're number four at this point, and Cincinnati is 24th,
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: tied with the Mets and the Cardinals. Cincinnati is going
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: with Brady Singer in this one, which I don't think
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: is a great thing. I mean, he has not been
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: very good. 5.03 ERA, 1.47 whip. He's been bad on
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: the road. 5.67 road ERA with a 300 opponent batting
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: average on the road. That's not good. He's not in
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: good form at all right now. Wasn't really good last month. Was, like,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: really hittable. His last two starts have been pretty awful.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: He's allowed 10 runs across his last nine and a
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: third innings. He had six walks last time out against Milwaukee,
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: by the way. And he somehow got a win in
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: that game. The Reds won 12-8 in an insane game,
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: which I think was him against Harrison, who was supposed
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: to start today. But what we know about Harrison, he's
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: started to pitch really poorly on the road. And Harrison,
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: if he's pitching today, he's not on the road this time, though.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: Singer is. So I don't think Singer is going to
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: do well here. His numbers against Milwaukee are not as
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: bad as you would think, though. 155 at-bats,. 252 average,
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: allowed 749 OPS, 38-18 strikeout walk ratio. So these numbers
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: are actually mediocre, but I would not really want to
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: trust Singer here on the road, not in good form.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: No thank you. We also don't know if Milwaukee is
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: actually going to have Harrison pitching or not. If it
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: is him, he still had a decent season overall, 3.66 ERA, 1.27 whip,
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: but those numbers got way worse recently, and it's because
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: every time he pitches on the road, he's been awful,
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: but he's been really good at home, 1.26 home ERA.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: Last start was against Cincinnati. It was that 12-8 game.
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: He was bad in that start. He had four walks
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: in three and two-thirds there. He was awful in the
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: start before that at the Cubs, but his home starts
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: have still all been good recently. So he's had mostly
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: road starts recently, and it's been bad for him, but
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: he's been good at home. Maybe I'm less mad that
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox traded him away at this point, though.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: His hit rate has gotten kind of high at this point.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: It's not really that good, but his walk rate is good.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is good, so he has really good
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: strikeout stuff. 4.1 strikeout walk ratio is good. 10.9 strikeout
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: per nine, not bad. In fact, good, I would say.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: Harrison against the Reds is not good, though. 45 at-bats,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: 333 average, 1,001 OPS, 11-7 strikeout walk ratio. If Harrison
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: is pitching here, I mean, we don't know if he is,
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: and maybe even if he isn't, I think maybe the
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: way to play this game is to just take the over.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: 73% of tickets, 90% of the cash on the over.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't love playing an over a game
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: after one team put 20 on the board, but I
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: don't see really an argument otherwise in this game. The
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: money's also fading Milwaukee here. 92% of tickets, 87% of
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: the cash on them. They're around minus 190 here, even
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: though we're not even sure if it's actually going to
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: be Harrison or not here. So I have no idea.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: But even not knowing if it's going to be Harrison
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: or not, I don't know if whoever pitches for Milwaukee
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: is going to be an improvement on that, even though
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: they do have some pretty good pitchers there. Over 8.5
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: might be the way to play that game as it
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: stands right now. No, it was definitely not Laney. Laney
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: makes the video clips and stuff and uses actual music
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: and whatever. No offense to whoever made that song. Reds, Brewers,
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: and Laney's a lot better of a video editor than that, too.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: In fact, I'm the one that... Actually, my mistake, actually.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: I think Laney did actually put those clips together, although
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: he usually makes... He didn't put as much effort into
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: that one, I don't think. Because it was just whatever.
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: Just put a bunch of clips of Toad together. It
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: was not one of his Tower Gang edits that have
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: a lot of effort put into them. But you're right.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: I think Laney did the video... He just clipped the
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: videos and put them together for me there, and then
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: I put the audio on top of it, and I
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: forget who made the audio. Mr. Pinsey, what's up? Thanks
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: for hanging out. All right. What's the next game? Oh, yeah, Philly-Atlanta.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: I want to put this on my card, man. It
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: depends on what Philly is doing with their starting pitching here.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: Atlanta won the game yesterday 6-5. Atlanta, I mean, they
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: could kind of be in cruise control right now, although
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: maybe they still think they have a shot at the
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: number one seed or whatever in the NL, which they
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: kind of still do, but they, they're in third right now.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: They're still behind Milwaukee and, uh, the Dodgers by a
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: bit Philadelphia's five games behind them Philadelphia uh is going
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: to be a wild card kind of regardless of what
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: happens here I would say so where's the motivation in
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: this one I don't know the motivation is probably a
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: little bit more towards Philadelphia here I would say but
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: I think both teams are showing up here on this
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: one um whoops I keep picking the A's instead of
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: Atlanta because I see the A there the yeah whatever
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: the A and the T Atlanta used four relief pitchers yesterday,
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: but they're obviously a better bullpen than the A's, and
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: they're better than Philly as well. Philly used a bunch
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: of guys out of the bullpen yesterday. They used five,
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: I think is what that is. Atlanta's got the bullpen
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: edge here. They're number two right now in whip, although
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: I think they're somewhere around the third or fourth best bullpen,
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: in my opinion. Philly is, let me see, number 18
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen. So, yeah, the Braves have the
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: better bullpen here. Braves are also the better offense. They are,
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: where are they at? They're number 16 right now, which
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: is not that good. Philadelphia 20th, tied with Arizona and Detroit. Philadelphia,
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: we don't know who's pitching here, and that's really... What
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: I'm looking at here, like, why do we not know?
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: Because I always go back five games ago. I'm like, okay,
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: who pitched in this game, which was a 1-0 game. Well,
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: it was Jesus Luzardo. It was against Grant Holmes, actually.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: I don't know what's going on with Holmes, but Luzardo
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: pitched in this game. When was that game? It was
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: the 7th. So, oh, so they might push him back, actually.
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: He would be up in the rotation now, but he
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: threw a complete game in that one. He's been pitching
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: really well, though. And Luzardo, we know he's had a
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: good season. He's really good on the road. So, and
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: he has good numbers against Atlanta to say if it
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: was going to be Luzardo in this game against Molly,
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: I was going to say I'm adding the under to
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: my card in this game, but that would entirely depend
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: on it being Luzardo pitching here. I think if it's
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: anybody else for Philly here, I don't think I want
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: to do it, but if it's Luzardo, I would put
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: the under seven and a half or whatever on my card.
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: And I will update that if it actually happens, I
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: will update that. Um, If I actually wind up playing
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: this game, how about I'll do an Instagram video and
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: I'll put it in the description. As it stands right now,
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: it's not on the card, but this game has the
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: makings of kind of an under here. Molly is pitching
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: for Atlanta. He's got a 4.05 ERA, 1.27 whip. He's
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 2: pretty much turned his season around after he was pretty
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: bad with the Giants. but he's been a good home
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: pitcher all season, 2.4 home ERA. And since Atlanta got him,
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: he's been very good. He had one bad start with them,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: I think. Or actually, no, I think it was after
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: that start against San Diego. So I think with Atlanta,
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: he hasn't allowed more than two run runs in any start.
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: And he's made six starts since then. So yeah, he's
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: pitching way better, including shutting Philly out last time out,
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: which was on the 6th. So actually, wait a minute,
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: who pitched in this game for, uh, cause I know
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: it's September call-ups. A lot of times you have other
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: starters getting inserted there. It was Aaron Nola, but I
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: think Nola just pitched the other day. Right. So it's
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: not going to be him this time.
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: Nola just pitched yesterday. Right. Yeah. And he pitched pretty well.
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: So obviously it's not Nola today. If it was him,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: you know, the under would, would be in consideration as well,
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: I think. But, um, It's more in consideration if it's
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: Luzardo anyway. But anyway, Molly's been good with the Braves.
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: He has a decent hit rate on the season. His
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: walk rate is okay. His strikeout rate is okay. So
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: he's been okay overall in the season now because he's
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: kind of turned it around with Atlanta. He's been way
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: better with Atlanta than he was with San Francisco. He's
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: got his strikeout walk ratio up to 2.9, which is okay. 8.5
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine is all right. Numbers against Philly are good.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: 123 at-bats, 244 average, 632 OPS, 29-12 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: That ratio's not good, but the rest of these numbers
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: are good. And Schwarber has nine of those walks, so
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: it's like he just pitches around him. But yeah, I
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: think Molly will pitch well here. The money right now
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: is coming in on Atlanta. 55% of tickets, 67% of
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: the cash on the minus 120-something. The money's coming in
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: on the over as well. Total's now at eight, so
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: it looks like maybe there's some indication that maybe it's
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: not going to be Luzardo here because he is listed
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: as day-to-day, so they might skip him in the rotation
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: or something. I don't know what Philly's doing here, man.
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: But I will indicate if I wind up doing something
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: with that game. But yeah, if it was going to
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: be Luzardo, I was going to put the under on
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: my card. So that's what I'm going to say right now.
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: If it's a different pitcher, I might not really like
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: the under here. I don't really have much else to
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: say about that game, though. a boost on D you
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: were able to get Michigan at seven and a half. Uh,
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: that's good, man. Um, the number is five and a
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: half out there everywhere. I mean, five and a half
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: is still value on Michigan because they were minus two
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: and a half on the look ahead. It's one of
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: the biggest overreactions I've ever seen. So I just had
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: to do it. I had to put Michigan on the card. Um,
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: I like it the best out of my place. I
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: don't like these big underdogs that I have, man. I
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: hate it actually, because the other team could kind of
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: like name the score, but It was all about the
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: situations involved. All right, we have White Sox at St. Louis. St.
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: Louis won yesterday despite being in a return home spot.
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: I think they did have a rest edge, but I
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: still didn't like the return home spot for them yesterday.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: And with Liberatore on the mound, I'm pretty sure, didn't
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: even matter. They won anyway. And I think I might
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: have leaned over in that game, and I believe the
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 2: over did come through in that one. St. Louis used
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: a bunch of relief pitchers. They used five. They're not
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: a very good bullpen. The White Sox only used two.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: The White Sox are the better bullpen here. White Sox
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: are 15th in bullpen. They've been pretty good recently.
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 4: St.
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: Louis is number 23, so the White Sox have the
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: edge there. White Sox also have the better offense. They're
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: number 12 right now, tied with the Yankees.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 4: St.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: Louis is number 24, tied with the Mets and Reds.
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: White Sox look like they were going with Luis Castillo,
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: and they might, but on the board, it's listed as Newcomb.
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: He's going to be an opener here. Sean Newcomb is
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: listed as their start. Duke Newcomb now. Sean Newcomb is
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: listed as their starter, but I believe he's going to
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: be an opener, and I think Castillo is probably going
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: to come in after that. Castillo... There's not a lot
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: to like about him if he's pitching in this game.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: He's got a 5.57 ERA, 1.46 whip. I don't know
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: what happened to him this year, to be honest. I mean,
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: he spent most of the year with Seattle, wasn't pitching
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: well at all, and he's been a pretty solid pitcher
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: throughout his career, so I have no idea what happened.
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: He's got a 6.15 road ERA. He's been awful on
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: the road. He's been awful recently. Like, he had one
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: really good start with the White Sox, but every other
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: one of his starts with the White Sox has been...
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: Pretty disastrous. He has not been good, man. He's been
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: way too hittable. His strikeout walk ratio has been fine.
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: It's just that he's throwing pitches right over the plate
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: and getting smashed. I don't know what's going on with him.
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is enormous. His walk rate's not too bad.
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: He's given up a lot of home runs. His strikeout
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: rate is somewhat okay. He's got a 2.7 strikeout walk ratio,
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 2: which isn't that bad. It's not great, but it's not horrible. 7.8
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine is kind of low compared to what
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 2: he's done in the past, though. So his strikeout stuff
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: is kind of diminished. I don't know what's going on
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: with him, man. It's like he can't get it by
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: hitters anymore. And even though this is a pitcher-friendly park,
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 2: he's not good against St. Louis either. They have 18
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: at-bats against him. It is a small sample. Seven hitters
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: have seen him. They have a. 389 average,. 921 OPS,
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: 3-to-1 strikeout walk ratio. So.
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: If it's Castillo getting the majority of the pitching duties here,
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: I do not like the White Sox here. I don't
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: really love it if it's a bullpen game either, to
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: be honest. Kyle Leahy's on the other side here. He's
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: been okay for St.
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 3: Louis.
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: 3.41 ERA. 1.33 whip does indicate he's not that good, though.
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: He's been okay at home, though. 2.91 home ERA, so
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: he is better at home. Wasn't great last time out
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: on the road, but it was at Colorado. Maybe you've
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: got to give him a pass for that. He still
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: had six strikeouts, no walks in that one, although he
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: gave up five runs in less than three innings. He
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: hasn't made it five innings in his last three outings, though,
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: so that's kind of a concern that he's not going
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: deep into these games and then St. Louis is going
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: to have to turn it over to their bullpen, and
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: a lot of times it's resulting in runs being scored.
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: He's got a high hit rate, so that's not good.
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: Doesn't really walk that many guys. His strikeout rate is
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: also okay. 3.3 strikeout walk ratio is definitely not bad,
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: but he is way too hittable. 8.5 strikeout per nine
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: is all right as well. I don't know if I
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 2: fully trust Leahy, though, and his numbers against the White Sox,
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: small sample here, seven at-bats, but these numbers are not great.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: 286 average, 1,089 OPS allowed. six hitters have faced him
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: in this lineup. I think the way to play this
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 2: game is probably to play the over, which I think
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: is what I said yesterday, too. But the money's coming
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: in towards the under. I don't agree with that. 62%
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: of tickets on the under, 82% of the cash on
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: the under. I think you got questionable pitching throughout this
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 2: game here, man. At best, really. Eight and a half
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: is the total here. I think the over is the
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: best way to play this game. The money's also slightly
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: indicating towards St. Louis, which I probably do also agree with.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: 51% of tickets are on the White Sox. 55% of
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: the cash on St. Louis. St. Louis is favored slightly.
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: And you got to think the public is going to
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: look at this and think, how am I getting the
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: White Sox as an underdog, right? When we know the
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: White Sox need to win because Cleveland's right behind them
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: right now. And, The White Sox have the better record
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: than St.
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 3: Louis.
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: So it looks way too easy to play the White
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: Sox here. So I would also agree with St. Louis
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: in this one. Leahy is probably better than whatever the
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: hell the White Sox are doing with their pitching. Although
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: if you go St. Louis, I would only go first
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: five though probably because I really do not like their bullpen.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: But I think the over is the best approach in
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: that game. the AI agent, baseball is really pissing me off. Um,
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: has not been a great bait. I was really good
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: for a while in baseball. Um, and I basically gave
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: it all back over the last like month plus pretty
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: fucking pissed, dude. I'm good in the first half of
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: the baseball season and bad in the second half. And
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: that is typical of me. I don't know what to
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: tell you, man. Although actually, I don't know. Cause generally
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: baseball is one of my best sports. Like over the last,
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: since I've been tracking it on action network for the
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: past four years or whatever. Baseball is my second best
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: sport behind NBA, so I don't know. And college football
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: is the least of all of them besides WNBA, although
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: WNBA hasn't... I haven't had enough volume to really accumulate
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: much of a profit with the WNBA, although I'm still
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: ahead in WNBA.
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 4: Mr.
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: Pinsey, what does your AI say for baseball today? We
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: have Texas at Arizona here. This is a big game
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 2: for both teams. Arizona... Battling with San Diego for the
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: last wild card here. Rangers are trying to stay in
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: the wild card race and or their division race here.
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: Arizona won the game yesterday 9-1, even though they were
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: in a return home spot. I didn't think it was
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: a great spot yesterday. They won anyway, and I'm not
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: sure who pitched for the Rangers yesterday because they moved...
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: um it was going to be rocker but they moved
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: him today it was mackenzie gore apparently yesterday not really
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: sure i mean i guess they had to pitch him
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: in the series he was not very good though and
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 2: he's not a very good road pitcher uh it was
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: supposed to be rocker yesterday but they moved rocker to
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: today um texas used uh four relief pitchers yesterday their
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: bullpen's been very disappointing this year as i Keeps saying
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: Arizona's bullpen has been the better of the two. And
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: they used four guys as well. I think Arizona has
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen here, though. They're number six. Finally, Arizona's
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 2: bullpen here is below four, guys. I think that's the
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: first time all season. Incredible. They're a decent bullpen, I
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: would say. Texas has been struggling. Number 21 in bullpen. So, yeah,
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: Arizona's got the better bullpen. Both offenses have not been
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: that good. Texas is 17th, tied with San Francisco. Arizona's 20th.
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 2: as I said, tied with Detroit and Philly. So neither
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: of these offenses have been that good on the season. Rocker,
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: Kumar Rocker, pitching for Texas. Like I said, I handicapped
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: him yesterday because he was supposed to pitch yesterday. 4.61 ERA, 1.44 whip.
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: Not great numbers here, although he's actually been better on
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: the road somehow. Four road ERA, even though his opponent
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: batting average is a little bit higher on the road.
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 2: Kind of weird because Texas is a pitcher-friendly park, but
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: he started not pitching too well at home yesterday. He's
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: not really in good recent form, though. I mean, his
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 2: ERA was high last month. He was very hittable last month.
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: Kind of continued into his first start this month against Tampa.
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: Not very good. He finally didn't walk anybody. His walks
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: were very bad in the last month, and I'm not
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: sure that one zero walk performance really changes anything about that.
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: He's got too high of a hit rate, too high
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: of a walk rate. His strikeout rate is okay, but
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: he's putting way too many guys on base, man, and
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: that is not a good sign. He's got a 2.3
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. That's not very good. 8.5 strikeout per
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: nine is okay, but he's too hittable and simultaneously walks
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 2: too many guys. However, he's good against Arizona for whatever reason.
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: 17 at-bats. I know it's not a big sample here,
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 2: but most of their lineup has faced him. They have
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: no extra base hits against him. 176 average, 510 OPS,
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: three strikeouts, four walks. Rocker might actually be able to
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: pitch okay here, and Arizona's going with Brandon Fott, who
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 2: has been way better since they sent him down to
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: the minors. He's got a 3.53 ERA now in the season, 1.15 whip,
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: not bad. He's been better at home in opponent batting average,
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: but worse in ERA, 3.71 ERA, so I don't think
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 2: his splits are really that significant. What is, I think, significant, though,
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: is that they sent him down to the minors, and
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: then when he came back, he was way, way better,
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 2: which happened... Let me see. When did that happen? That happened...
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: That was most of the month of June, and then
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: since he came back up from the minors, he's allowed
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: more than... Three earned runs only twice since then. He's
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: a lot more than two earned runs only three times
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: since then, although all of those starts came recently, though.
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 2: In fact, it was three of his last four where
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: that happened. But he was pretty good in his last
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: two starts, except the strikeout rate's a little bit low here.
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: But he's gotten his walk rate down. He hasn't been
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: too hittable for the most part recently, so that's not
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: too bad. His hit rate's okay on the season. His
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: walk rate is low. His strikeout rate is also very low, though.
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 2: He just is not striking anybody out, and that was
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: not the case in the past, although his numbers were
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: worse in the past, but he had better strikeout stuff,
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: so go figure. 2.7 strikeout walk ratio this year, not great. 5.9
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine, very, very ugly. Not a strikeout pitcher,
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: but for whatever reason, he is pitching better recently. However,
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: he's not really good against Texas. They have 42 at-bats
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: against him. 12 to 1 strikeout walk ratio is good,
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: but 286 average allowed, 826 OPS allowed, not good. So
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. I kind of lean towards Texas
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 2: to bounce back here. I think Rocker has the better
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers here. The money seems like it agrees with this.
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: Public is on Arizona. I think they have the better record,
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: so I think that's part of the reason why. 87%
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 84% of the cash on Arizona. They're about
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: minus 130 here, down from minus 140. So Arizona's the
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: public side. It looks like the money's coming in against them.
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 2: I'm going to agree with that. I would lean Texas
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: in this one, probably only first five though, cause they
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: don't have the better bullpen. So I think Texas first five,
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: I guess money line is worth a look and the
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: money's coming in on the over in this one. Um,
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: over eight and a half. I don't really disagree. I mean, I,
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: there are definitely reasons to not really love these pictures here.
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: So maybe that makes sense. Yes. That's what AI stands for. Um,
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: You stopped running it. Oh, you're using, I don't know
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: which AI you're using, but yeah, you have certain credits
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: that you have to save up. I wanted to know, man,
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 2: I want to know how accurate, what's the record in
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: baseball at least? Like what record is it running right now?
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 2: I know the ones you gave out the other day,
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: the one that was also a play I gave out
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: on the show lost, but I know one of the
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 2: other two plays that it had was a winner in
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: that same game. I don't know what the other play
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: did that day. Seattle at the A's is the last
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: game up. We did have a win on the show
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 2: yesterday with the A's first five. They won in the
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: full game as well after they blew that two-run lead.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: They hung on and won, even though their bullpen's bad.
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 2: Seattle's bullpen is not that good. And the over, I believe,
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 2: wound up hitting in that game yesterday. I mean, this
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 2: is a series that could result in some overs because
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: you're looking at some bullpens that really aren't that good,
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: and it's a very hitter-friendly environment. The A's are a
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 2: terrible bullpen. They used five guys out of the bullpen yesterday.
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 2: Seattle's bullpen has been Pretty bad this year, too. They
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: used four guys out of their bullpen yesterday. The A's
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: are the worst bullpen in baseball, even though they're ranked
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 2: 28th in WIP. They're awful. A 5.32 ERA is by
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: far the worst. They're not good. Seattle's not really good either, though.
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: They're number 20 in bullpen. They've been way worse than
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: last year. I don't know what's going on with their bullpen.
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: The A's are the better offense. The A's are number 12,
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: tied with Yankees and White Sox here. Seattle's number 29.
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: Seattle's been a really weak offense all year, and that's
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: really kind of been their undoing here. That and the
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: fact that their pitchers all pitch worse on the road,
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: including Brian Wu, who was pitching today, even though I
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: still think Wu was their best pitcher. He's their pitcher
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: I trust the most. He's had a really tough go
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: of it on the road this year, though, but he's
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: been an elite pitcher the last couple years. This year,
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: he hasn't been that bad either. 4.03 ERA, but a 1.06
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: whip is pretty good. 5.63 road ERA, though I know
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: his road ERA is more than three runs worse than
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 2: his home ERA. It's bad. He just pitched against the
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: A's and one hit shut out them through eight innings,
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: completely dominated them, and he was really good in his
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: previous start on the road at the Red Sox. And
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: in fact, his last four, three road starts have actually
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: been good. So he has been pitching better on the
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 2: road since the start of August at least. So there's
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: something to kind of like about that, that he is
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: starting to pitch better on the road again. He's got
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: a low hit rate, a low walk rate, a high
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate too, so all those numbers are good. 4.8
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, 9.1 strikeout per night, although those numbers
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 2: are not as good as what he posted last year.
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: Woo against the A's is pretty good, an 89 at bats,
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: 29 to 5 strikeout walk ratio, 157 average, 438 OPS.
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, those are dominant numbers. He dominates the A's, although,
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 2: of course, some of those numbers came in pitcher-friendly Seattle.
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 2: How well is he going to pitch at the A's
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 2: stadium here? I don't know. He hasn't pitched here this year.
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: He probably did pitch here last year, let me say.
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: But last year, of course, he had a much better season.
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 2: He wasn't that good last time he pitched here. Gave
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: up five runs in six and a third innings. He
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: gave up four home runs, and that was the reason
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: why he gave up all those runs. I mean, he
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 2: didn't really put that many guys on base. Had a
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 2: good strikeout rate in that one and a low walk rate.
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 2: The other time he pitched, he had a very similar
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: pitching line. the other time he pitched here last year,
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 2: also gave up five runs in six innings, whatever, but
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 2: he had a 6-1 strikeout walk ratio again, and that
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: one he did not allow as many home runs. But yeah,
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's been consistently not that good in this stadium,
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 2: so that is a concern. Although he's going deep into
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 2: those outings still, and he's still not walking, guys. His
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: home run rate is a little bit high, I guess.
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: His fly ball rate is high, so yeah. I mean,
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: this is not the greatest stadium for him to be
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: pitching in, but he is generally good against the A's,
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: so I guess do what you want with all that info,
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 2: and the A's are going with Gage Jump in this one.
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 2: Rookie season for him. We backed him a few times
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 2: early in the season. He was pitching pretty well. He
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: was doing pretty well on the road. In this stadium,
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 2: he has not been good, and his overall numbers are
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 2: not very good. 5.12 ERA, 1.49 whip. He's definitely struggled
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 2: here in this stadium. 5.62 home ERA, not good. Was
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 2: pretty good last time out against Seattle on the road,
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 2: although he only made it four innings in that one,
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: but he had seven strikeouts, no walks. That's not bad.
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 2: Gave up two runs and took a loss because the
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 2: A's scored nothing. He's been too walk-heavy, though. If you
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 2: look at his overall numbers, his hit rate is also
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: too high. He's not really that home-run conducive, though. He's
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: not a huge fly ball pitcher, so Wu is actually
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 2: more home-run conducive than Jump is. Jump, his walk rate's
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 2: kind of bad, though, and his strikeout rate is actually good,
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: so That's why I kept saying I think this guy
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: does have talent because his strikeout rate is high, so
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 2: he could fool major league hitters. He's got a 2.4
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio because his walk rate is the main
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 2: issue with him, and if he fixes that, I think
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: he's going to be pretty good. That, and he probably
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: has to get out of the stadium. 9.9 Ks per 9,
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: that is good. His numbers against the Mariners have not
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 2: been very good, though. 33 at-bats, 10-0 strikeout walk ratio
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: is good, but 364 average, 758 OPS allowed, that's not
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: very good, so.
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think my lean in this game
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 2: is probably towards Seattle, but you have to lay a
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 2: huge price with them if you want it. I think
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 2: Wu is the better of these two pitchers here, and
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: Seattle still has the better bullpen, as bad as they
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 2: might be. Seattle's about minus 170-something here. 82% of tickets,
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 2: 91% of the cash on them. It's just too much
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 2: of a price. Like, I just don't think you could
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 2: do it. The total's 9.5. These pitchers are not the
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: worst that you're going to see in this stadium, so
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean... maybe there's some sort of
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 2: argument for an under in the first five. I don't
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: really want to look at that at all. I mean,
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: I don't really want to, yeah, I mean, I don't
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 2: want to do that, though, to play the under here,
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: so whatever. I mean, I think Seattle might be the
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 2: way to play that game, but you have to make
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: a minus one run line on it. Yeah, I looked
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 2: at it. Garrett, watch my show from last night. I
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: talked about it. I'm not playing that game, but I
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: talked about it. I agree with the East Tennessee if
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 2: you're going to play that game. Yeah, I mean, I
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 2: had a few issues with it. I forget, there were
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: a couple reasons why I didn't want it I also
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 2: don't really play these FCS games very much even though
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 2: I do have one more of them today and I
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: think it might wind up being the last one once
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 2: we get into like week three you're pretty much getting
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 2: FBS only after that point Yes, go watch the show,
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 2: although you'll run out of time. I mean, whatever. I mean,
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 2: it's kind of hard to hate North Carolina's football team
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: because they're a joke. I didn't really hate them with
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 2: Drake May there, but, I mean, it was a team
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 2: that had all offense, no defense. And I hate Belichick,
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 2: but it's, you know, it's hard to really hate that
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 2: team because they're such a joke. They're so bad that
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: it's like, whatever. That's going to do it for this show, though.
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's... That's the whole show here. Yes, sir.
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 2: We got a couple of plays here, so I added
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 2: two baseball plays. I added one more on the fly,
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 2: so we have Toronto Moneyline here. We're going with a
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 2: bullpen game with Toronto. I think it's a bounce-back spot,
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 2: and they're facing a pitcher that they hit well, so
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 2: we're going to do that. And then we're going with
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 2: San Francisco in the first five with an unknown pitcher
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 2: who might be good against a pitcher who might be
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 2: a little bit overrated. In what I think is a
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 2: bounce-back spot, that's the Giants' first five run line in
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 2: that one because they don't want to deal with their bullpen.
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 2: Go watch my college football show from last night, although
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 2: it's very long, so you don't even have time to
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 2: finish it before the kickoff but we have Michigan plus
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 2: five and a half I don't know if you can
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 2: get a better number on that or not it looked
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: like the number was going down though but I haven't
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 2: looked today Monmouth plus 27 and a half I can
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 2: look at the market read and see if it still
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 2: agrees with all of these I told you we have
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 2: some ridiculous underdogs here Louisiana Tech plus 35 and a
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 2: half and Charlotte plus 47 and a half I think
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 2: the situation lines up the best for these four plays
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: so that's what I'm doing and The situation, really two
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 2: games from last week led to these four plays. So, like, yeah,
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 2: that's what I'm basing it all off of. So I
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 2: think it's very selective. Although, you know, I don't love
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 2: these huge dogs. And once the season gets going, I
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: have much fewer of them than early in the season.
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 2: I think these are probably some of the biggest dogs
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 2: I've ever given out. I gave out a couple of
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 2: them last year, though, but I think it's the right way.
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 2: Let me look at the market read real quick here
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 2: on these football games here. That is not what I want.
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 2: Hang on, let me see. Oh, I don't have it
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 2: up anymore. Hang on, I'll bring it back up. Let
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 2: me see. We have Monmouth was the one. Yeah, Monmouth,
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: there's no market numbers on this, so I don't know
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 2: how to read that one. Michigan looks like it's around 4.5 everywhere. Actually,
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 2: DK still has a 5.5, it looks like. the money
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 2: looks like it definitely agrees with Michigan. The public's all
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 2: over Oklahoma and the line is just way out of whack.
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 2: Like I said, based on one result, the line got
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 2: moved like seven points. It's ridiculous. Or actually more than
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 2: that when it was five and a half. Then what
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 2: did I say? I have Charlotte and, um, the money
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 2: seems to agree with that too. It looks like a
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 2: pros versus Joe's with Charlotte. And then with the Louisiana
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 2: tech one, we're just, we're fading a heavily public side
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 2: in that one too. So I'm okay with all that. Um,
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 2: Go check out the show from last night. I covered
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 2: every TV game, most of the FBS games, and pretty
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 2: much any game you're going to want to know about
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 2: probably got covered in that show. But if you want
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: to ask me about a game that I have not
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 2: talked about, you can... Ask me about it live on
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 2: that show, but that's going to do it. Learn to
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: Tote on Twitter. Learn to Tote on Instagram. Like, subscribe
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: to the show here. Give me good comments here. Boost
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 2: this thing. We're doing well on audio. The last couple
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: days went down again, but there was a big bump
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 2: for a while there for the last week or so. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker,
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: go check it out. covered in you. Cause my ukulele
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 2: channel on YouTube, you can check that out. Patreon.com slash
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 2: learn to tote. If you want to support me that way,
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: it's all in my link tree as well, which will
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 2: be in the description and on my Twitter, uh, loser
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 2: cast every Tuesday night and New York giants G spot podcast.
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 2: As I've been saying, I don't think we're doing it. Uh,
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 2: we're not going to do a live thing on Sunday night.
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 2: Cause it will be Ben's birthday and he's going to
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: be out. I assume somewhere. So, and the giants are
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 2: playing the Sunday night game against Dallas. So I don't know. Um, Subscribe,
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 2: and I'll be back. I'm probably going to do a
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: late-night degenerate show for NFL Week 1. Week 1, we
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: tried a little bit lightly, although I know I got
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 2: the 49ers right the other night as Mr. Thursday Night
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 2: is back, I guess, even though that was not an
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 2: Amazon Prime Thursday night game. It was a Mr. Friday
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 2: morning in Australia now. And then, yeah, I'm going to
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 2: have this one play that I definitely like that will
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 2: be on my card this week. I don't know about
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 2: the rest. I'm probably going to have at least one
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 2: more that I add to the card for the NFL.
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 2: So I might wind up with two more plays, but
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 2: I tried pretty lightly in the week one. Although usually,
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 2: you know, me in the NFL, like it's typically about
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 2: three plays a week for me. So yes, sir. Thank you.
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 2: That's going to do it. Everybody have a good Saturday.
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 2: I will see. Cause I'm going to see rush tonight. Finally,
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 2: my favorite band and I've never seen them live and
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 2: I'll never be able to see the greatest drummer in history.
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 2: Neil part, never going to be able to see him,
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 2: but they're, chick drummer they have now is good so
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 2: i'm gonna go i'm gonna have fun with it it'll
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 2: be an evening of rush i think they're there's even
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 2: though they're old men alex and getty they're still going
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: out there and fucking playing like two and a half
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 2: hour shows uh yeah let's have some fun with it
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 2: i'm gonna do it again on monday too um all
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 2: rush all the time man finally gonna do it um
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: I've seen some videos, and Geddy, I mean, obviously his
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 2: voice is not what it once was, but he adapts
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: to it. He's a good singer. A lot of people
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 2: hate his voice, but I think he's a very good singer,
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: and he does that while playing bass and keyboard simultaneously,
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 2: and he knows what to do with his voice. Like,
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 2: oh yeah, I can't hit this note anymore, so I'm
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 2: just gonna change the melody here a little bit, you
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? It'll still fit into the song, so... Yeah,
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 2: all right, that's going to do it. I'm rambling. I've
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 2: got to get the Instagram videos out, especially at least
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 2: the Michigan one is a noontime game, so that's when
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 2: it's going to all kick off. Yes. Of Stealth Men. Yes,
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 2: in spirit of radio, I do have a ukulele cover
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 2: of that. It's pretty much their only song that I
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 2: can cover on uke. I believe it's all a 4-4 song,
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 2: or at least it was when I did it. But
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 2: that was like the only one, like their rhythms are
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 2: so like difficult to do. That was like the only
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 2: song that was that easy to do on you. That's
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 2: going to do it.
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 5: Peace.
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 3: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 2: Let somebody answer. Let somebody know.
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 3: You do not have to lose this round alone. Hold on,
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 3: not tonight, not now Hold on, hold.
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 5: On Let me.
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 4: Pull you out That bad luck fights hard But it
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 4: don't get the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 4: me now.
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 5: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 3: You're still here now.
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 5: Guitar solo
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 3: Thank you.