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Are The St. Louis Cardinals Actually Better Than Last Season? · Kenny Wallace Media

0:00
What's up, everybody? It is low hanging fruit.
0:03
I'm Charlie Marlow with my spiffy new background that may
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or may not be distracting. We'll try it for one episode.
0:10
That's Brendan Schaefer. Brendan Schaefer's already mad
0:13
at me, so let's let's fight. Let's let's start this.
0:15
Brendan Schaefer's mad. He's mad because last week we
0:18
did a mailbag. But 70 minutes.
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I said we'll answer the rest of the questions together, but then
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I did them myself on Monday. I didn't think I'd get to all of
0:28
them. Then I realized that I answered
0:30
all the questions. So now we're screwed and we have
0:31
nothing to talk about, right? Yeah, And the way I found out
0:35
was Charlie tweeting it out and said sorry for Brendan Schaefer.
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But here's all the here's all the questions we were going to
0:41
answer on Thursday. So I've held the grudge for a
0:44
couple of days since that happened.
0:46
Now we're together and there could be fireworks.
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I don't know. We'll see.
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And just so you know, so, so Brendan is live from maybe a a
0:54
bedroom. I don't know where I'm live from
0:56
Busch Stadium. As you can tell, I'm here at
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Busch Stadium. It's packed this The crowd is
1:01
packed behind you. It looks like it's about 80°.
1:05
Yeah, a lot of people there just to hang out on a random what is
1:09
today, Thursday, Thursday morning?
1:12
That's great, and hopefully that works out.
1:15
The sound, the acoustics are good out there at the ballpark,
1:18
so hopefully that pans out for you.
1:20
I I'll try to get used to it, but it's a it's a little
1:23
bizarre. Put in the comments if you like
1:25
it or you dislike it. And I know my background's no
1:27
good either. Maybe that's the distracting
1:29
part. I'm hearing a dungeon and
1:31
Charlie is at baseball heaven. Maybe that's the problem.
1:34
But let us know if you like Charlie's background.
1:37
And I promise we're actually going to talk baseball.
1:39
But the the issue is, and maybe it's worse if it was just me on
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camera because if you become a hands talker, Oh yeah, I feel
1:45
like there's like a laser, there's almost like a laser
1:47
karate thing. It's really bad.
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Yeah. OK, so I'm going to, I'm going
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to really, I'm going to really be rigid.
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All right, here we go. Let's start with Pakota.
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Every year we complain about Pakota saying the Cardinals
1:59
aren't going to be very good, and then the Cardinals are good.
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Last year I can't even remember what Pakota predicted, but I'm
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looking at the standings and obviously the Cardinals were
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terrible last year, But Pakoda baby Brendan Schaefer.
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They like the Cardinals 85.2 wins, winning the NL Central.
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They got the Cubs with eighty wins.
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The Brewers with 79. Cincinnati will go 78.
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The Pittsburgh Buckos 73 wins. So congratulations, the
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Cardinals have won the Central. They won the Pokota War, which
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is usually not. I think Pokota didn't mind them
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last year, which is interesting. I don't think they were over the
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moon, but I think they they gave him a winning record and they
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were wrong about it. So it's interesting to see a
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year later when we're typically used to seeing the projections,
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absolutely hate the Cardinals for whatever reason, but they
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like him this year. But like the rest of the
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Central, they don't even predict one other team to win 81 games
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and go 500. That is a bad division.
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We set it last year and it I guess it ended up being true,
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but teams like the Cubs were maybe a little better than we
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thought. The Reds had some spunk to them.
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The Brewers ended up winning a good amount of games.
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I don't know, like maybe last year we we made all these claims
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about how bad the division was and then it ended up being OK
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and the Cardinals were really the problem.
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But this year, I don't know. I don't see the the same
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firepower necessarily for teams like the Brewers that won a
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bunch of games last year and then traded their ace pitcher.
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Like, maybe the Cardinals are in a better spot than we think,
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just because of the competition around them.
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Yeah, and I I talked about this last week.
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I did a video on Friday. We'll get to this with Keenan
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Middleton. So that signing was reported and
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now it's final. But also that same day you had
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the news of Corbin Burns being traded from the Brewers to the
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Orioles, and I can't remember off the top of my head, but it
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was very striking to me. I saw I saw a bunch of betting
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odds and this is kind of obvious, but it is such a game
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changer when you either trade away the ace, I mean a true stud
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ace, or you get the ace. And I'm seeing the odds for the
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Orioles to win the World Series, to win the AL Pennant.
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Their win total I think went up three full wins.
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All of those odds to win the World Series were severely
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decrease like by a third. What?
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Whatever. Whatever the odds are.
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I can't remember. People can check on that, but.
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So the Brewers are probably losing three wins, The Orioles
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pick it up. But when I saw that, I go man on
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paper. If the Cardinals could just add
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a guy like that, it just makes you feel so much better on paper
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about the season. Yeah, and I think Corbin Burns
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to me at least, does qualify as that true ace.
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Now how much post season experience he's got.
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You know the Brewers aren't always in the mix, but he's he's
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been at it for a while and is a really, really good power arm.
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And for the Cardinals like they added Sonny Gray and and that is
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kind of what they're resting on. I think to look at the strength
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of their rotation this year and saying, look, this guy was a top
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contender for the Cy Young in the AL last year as Charlie
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takes some pictures and I understand their hope for him to
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be great again. But I also kind of look at it in
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in in a similar way that you do and say if you had a second one,
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like those teams with the 1-2 punch that that that only help
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you in the regular season. It helps you in the playoffs
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when you have a best two out of three or a best three out of
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five and you can throw those guys that you almost know are
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going to give you a great outing.
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I think Sonny Gray can be that guy for the Cardinals.
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I don't know if they have a second one as of now.
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And I know some people probably look at that and say get to
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October 1st because you weren't even close last year.
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And that's true. But I always do think about when
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you get there, do you have the horses to contend with the
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Braves and the Dodgers, etcetera?
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OK, So what I found also super interesting and I think I think
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Pakoda is is fair for the Cardinals.
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I I probably right now would say whatever, 838485.
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Again, to me it's all going to come down to if they're in it at
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the deadline, then they add, then you have motivation to win,
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then you probably are pushing 8889.
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But here's what I find interesting when I look at the
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National League standings. So you got the haves, you got
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the really have nots, and then you have a ton of teams,
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probably about 10, that are all right in the middle.
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I'm going to include the Cardinals and that's why I think
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this could be a really, really fun season.
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And I'm not saying it's going to happen exactly the way Pakoda
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predicts. Let's say it does.
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So the Washington Nationals suck.
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They're they're projected to win 58.
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The Colorado Rockies suck. They're projected to win 58.
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The Atlanta Braves are awesome, projected to win one O 1.
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The LA Dodgers? Awesome, predicted to win one O
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2. So you have, on paper, 2 elite
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teams. Braves and Dodgers?
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Crap ball. Yeah, two crap ball teams.
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Washington Nationals. Colorado Rockies, then you have.
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So we were on three. The Pittsburgh Pirates kind of
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suck. I'll, I'll throw them in the
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sucking range. I think that's fair, so.
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Basically. So look, that is.
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That's nine teams. If you go Phillies, Mets,
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Marlins. Actually, what?
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It's ten teams. It's Cardinals.
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Yeah, Cardinals. Cubs.
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Brewers. Cincinnati.
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Reds. Arizona Diamondbacks.
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San Francisco Giants. San Diego Padres.
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That's whatever that number is. That's ten teams that should all
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win somewhere from, let's say like 78 to 85.
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That means a lot of series where you got to win two out of three
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and it should be fun. Yeah, and and a lot of those
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teams are going to be vying for wild cards, right?
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Because the teams that you listed from the NL East and West
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there, I I know anything can happen, but they're probably not
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winning their division like the Braves and the Dodgers are going
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to do that. It almost feels like a foregone
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conclusion. And so if you're in the cardinal
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situation where OK, the projections think you are kind
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of barely the best in in a bad Central Division, but you're
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kind of in the mix for that and you're in the mix for all of
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those wild card spots that could potentially be up for grabs.
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So it is going to be kind of crazy.
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And it does feel like you could go into any given series with
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the notion of, hey, if you're playing an NL team in the Wild
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card chase, this this could matter for how you stack up
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against them at the end. So here is my comment Brendan
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from YouTube. It's from my guy McGill design
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and he says smoke and mirrors. You have two proven guys.
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He's talking about the bullpen, Chris Stratton and Jordan Hicks.
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You replace them with Andrew Kitteridge and Keenan Middleton.
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Result, an even swap. Not worse but not better than AC
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grade. This person is saying, OK, you
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have 3 starters in 2023. Jordan Montgomery, Jack
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Flaherty, Adam Wainwright. You replace them with Sonny
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Gray, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn. Now this person is saying that's
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AD grade. Overall, Mose Alok spent less
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money to basically bring back the same team with different
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names. Any improvements are negligible.
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Smoke and mirrors show now. I think that's fair on the
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bullpen side. To me, it's pretty fair on the
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starting pitching side, except Wayno was so bad last year.
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You're essentially replacing, in my opinion, Jordan Montgomery
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with Sonny Gray, Jack Flaherty with Kyle Gibson.
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You can say those those are equal ish.
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But then you're replacing Adam Wainwright, who is horrible,
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with Lance Lynn, who I think will be much better.
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But the overall question to you is, is it fair to wonder, 'cause
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I do think the Cardinals are better, but that's a pretty fair
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argument that no, they're the same.
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I definitely think they're better and and I don't agree
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with the evaluation there from the comments are regarding the
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rotation Sonny Gray versus Montgomery.
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I'm OK with calling that a Washington like Monty pitched
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pretty well for the Cardinals. You do have to remember that he
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wasn't on the team for the last couple of months right And Jack
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Flaherty wasn't on the team for the last couple of months so
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that was that like those months went into the Cardinals only
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winning 71 games you they they counted as part of that record.
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So people can't really have it both ways when they say the
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Cardinals true value of their talent last year was 71 wins and
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they didn't get better. Well their their value of their
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wins at the deadline might not have been 71 if you keep the the
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crew together which nobody's saying they should have because
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it was a sinking ship. But they probably win like 75 or
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76. So that's one reason that the
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gap isn't that much more significant because when you say
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Gray to like going from Montgomery to Gray, you get Gray
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for the whole season, not just a a few months, right.
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So that's part of it. I would actually compare instead
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of going Gibson with Flaherty, I would say Lynn with Flaherty is
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a good comp because I think Lynn actually has upside to be the
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number two in this rotation. Like we've we've asked this
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question, bounced it around who has the better year, Lynn or
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Michaelis. I might bet that Lynn has more
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upside because he can strike guys out.
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Flaherty was kind of that way. He was volatile because he'd be
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either pretty darn good or he would really be bad.
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That feels kind of like Lance Lynn.
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Where I do think they've made gains is Kyle Gibson.
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I think is that solid, steady #5 that you kind of know what
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you're going to get and it's not going to be fall off the table.
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Worst pitcher in baseball, Adam Wainwright.
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So like that is really an area where I think they have gained
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and you know behind that. Is it a question of no more
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Dakota Hudson, no more Jake Woodford.
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It might be fair to say what did you replace those guys with
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because those guys weren't very good, but they would throw the
11:42
games when guys got injured and you kind of figure pitchers are
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going to get injured. So that would be a fair
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criticism of like do you trust the step forward by Zach
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Thompson enough to say that when he is called upon he can be
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better than the fill in guys last year were and Zach Thompson
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was like one of those fill in guys too.
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So is that game going to be made if there are injuries?
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That part I think is fair, but on paper the one through 5 I do
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think is better. OK, And you know, there's no,
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there's no data I'm going to point to when I say this.
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It's what the kids say, vibe check or a positive vibes only.
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I'm telling you, I just think there's going to be something to
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that this year. You could not have had a worse
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crap storm for the first couple months of the season.
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And I'm. I'm including, let's just
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include spring training and the first month.
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You could not have had a worse set up.
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I know a lot of teams had guys at the World Baseball Classic
12:40
but the Cardinals had a ton of guys and a ton of pitchers and
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Adam Wainwright gets injured there now.
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Sure, he was working out. Could he have been injured in
12:47
Jupiter? You can make that argument,
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Miles Michaelis. His whole routine was messed up.
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He didn't pitch. You have a new catcher in Wilson
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Contreras. He didn't go to the WBC because
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he wanted to mesh with his teammates who none of them were
13:02
there. And then you have an awful start
13:05
to the season. You have a bunch of off the
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field issues. You can just go down the line.
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Tyler O'Neill, that spat. Wilson Contreras.
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That was a a debacle. They even even sending down
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Jordan Walker after they they kept him up and he was pretty
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good. I get the chance you messed with
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Zach Thompson. You yo yoed him.
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You you said, OK, now I'm going to send you back to be a
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starter. Well, he's thinking, well, hell,
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you could have done that in the winter.
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So I say this, I I just think last year sucked and I can't
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give you a data point on that, except it just freaking sucked
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and I think it can't suck as much this year.
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And I think the position players are going to be better.
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It's the same guys for the most part, but I think they'll be
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better. And I just think all you have to
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do is have a normal spring and just get off to a decent start.
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If you're around 500. We know the schedule is brutal
13:57
to start, but just start to your normal and I can see this team
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growing and blossoming throughout the summer.
14:04
I I agree with that. I don't know how people are
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going to take that hearing it because it'll sound, you know,
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some people will say, well you're just taping for the
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Cardinals and that's a home or take.
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But I agree with you completely when you like and you broke down
14:17
a lot of the elements that I would bring up as justification,
14:21
like those are data points. Even though it's not based in,
14:23
you know, what the war is. I I do think it's all relevant
14:27
to what was going on in the clubhouse.
14:29
And the Jordan Walker one was one that I kind of forgot about.
14:31
But I completely agree with you. And if you want to compare what
14:34
was going to happen last year to what we could see for this
14:36
season, there's no doubt at this point that Jordan Walker is
14:39
going to be a mainstay in the lineup And he's a really
14:42
talented player, got his feet under him and like at age 2021
14:47
was serviceable at the big league level offensively.
14:50
That's a really impressive thing to do.
14:52
So now that he's kind of got that experience, I think you can
14:54
start to count on Jordan Walker to be a primary contributor in
14:58
the line up. Whereas last year it was like,
15:00
hey, he's scrapping to make the team and he makes it.
15:02
But then, you know, we realize, oh, Jordan Walker, not a great
15:07
outfielder, which they could have already known that because
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he had only been doing it for a number of months.
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And oh, we're for some reason bringing 6 outfielders that all
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kind of do the same thing and expecting just the competition
15:18
to win out and everybody to be the best version of themselves.
15:21
And they there was a thing of too much depth in the outfield
15:25
situation last year that I think was problematic, especially in
15:28
the early months because they wanted to cram Alec Burleson
15:31
into the line up. But they also wanted to play
15:33
Walker and I think it was a product of the fact that they
15:35
sent him down. I think they did him wrong.
15:38
That I that was my opinion at the time and it still is.
15:40
Because if you're going to bring him at the beginning, you might
15:42
as well keep him because you knew what the circumstances were
15:45
going to be about how he would play outfield and how many guys
15:48
you had to kind of kind of juggle and shuffle into the line
15:51
up. But once that happens and they
15:53
kind of reverse course on it and admit, OK, we're going to have
15:55
to move him down because there's just not the spot to play him
15:58
every day with these other guys that we want to get in there.
16:01
You know, the the vibes on that were wrong.
16:03
So now that Tyler O'Neill is gone, it does kind of simplify a
16:06
little bit and you know that a mainstay is Jordan Walker.
16:09
It's not going to be well, well, you know it's the same guys from
16:12
last year because no, he's a a year along in his progression
16:16
and I think it'd be a really helpful player and Mason Wynn
16:19
now can factor in, in a positive way instead of being kind of
16:22
like an afterthought. So while it is a lot of the same
16:25
guys on the position player side, I think you have two young
16:28
up and comers that are on the rise and then some veteran
16:31
players that for various reasons I think we could both see them
16:34
having better years than they did last year.
16:35
Whether that's a home or take or not, I think it's that's how I
16:38
see it and sounds like you do too.
16:41
Yeah, and I like this discussion because some people will say if
16:45
you talk too much analytics and I like to sprinkle in a fair
16:48
amount of analytics, like I love OPS plus.
16:51
I actually think it's easier to decipher OPS plus.
16:54
And some people are like it's it's just on 100.
16:56
It's much easier than saying someone's batting average, which
16:59
doesn't tell you anything. But what I'm trying to say is,
17:02
so I I think there's also something to the failure of 2023
17:09
for the Cardinals. Now I think for the most part in
17:11
a baseball season, you want your team.
17:14
It's a long grind of a season. You you can't grind on them too
17:17
much, right? But I think you could make the
17:19
case. I've been here since 2008.
17:22
The Cardinals have always had a winning season.
17:25
They make the play offs two out of every three years or whatever
17:28
it is. You make a deep run here.
17:30
I I know we we haven't had deep runs.
17:32
But you can kind of make the argument that the Cardinals
17:36
probably in the last five or seven years start to feel like
17:40
they show up at spring training already as an 85 win team.
17:44
Like that's the default setting. The default setting is we are
17:47
going to be no, no worse than whatever the number is, 848586.
17:52
OK, let's push it to 90. Let's win the division.
17:55
Let's get a wild card. Whatever it is, there is
17:58
something in my opinion and I can't, I can't throw analytics
18:01
at you, But to getting slapped in the face for the first time
18:05
in 15 to 20 years and now there's the sense of urgency
18:10
from the top down, I mean from the Dewitts in terms of selling
18:15
tickets, which already looks better, But from Mozalak, who I
18:19
don't think John Mozelak will ever get fired, but if he has
18:22
two bad years in a row, do we see the succession plan start to
18:26
go a little faster? To Ollie Marmole and his staff,
18:29
where clearly Ollie is coaching for his next contract and you
18:33
have Yati and Descalzo waiting in the wings.
18:35
To all of these players. A bunch of starting pitchers on
18:39
one year deals, but a bunch of position players who who didn't
18:43
like the way that last year ended.
18:45
Some stars like Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt who are
18:49
more motivated in offseason. If you kind of throw all of that
18:53
into a bin and you say, man, it was miserable in 2023, I'm sorry
18:57
that that motivates you more in the offseason.
19:00
The the negative motivates you more.
19:02
The losing motivates you more, in my opinion.
19:04
Yeah, I think they got blitzed by some of what happened, like
19:07
to begin last year. And I think part of it too, that
19:10
we didn't discussed today, but we've discussed before was like
19:14
the newness of the coaching staff and your pitching coach is
19:17
gone, your hitting coach is gone, you're replacing those
19:19
guys. Like I think it was a lot of
19:21
going through the motions on stuff that they thought would
19:23
just be like, yeah, you know, it's not ideal, but we'll just
19:26
do this and we think we've got a good plan in place and it'll be
19:29
fine. And they kind of.
19:30
Just assumed the sale on a lot of those different things and I
19:34
think the Contreras thing was another one of them Yadi going
19:37
and now so Yadi comes back like there's reinforcements at this
19:40
point. It feels like to correct some of
19:42
the things that went so woefully wrong on them last year, which I
19:46
do think matters. And then from your perspective
19:48
on just the notion of it sucked last year and we don't want to
19:51
feel that way again. Like I think a few of the guys
19:54
that are most notable in that sort of vibe, like I think about
19:58
Brendan Donovan in the way that. He's just an intense guy and he
20:02
wants the people around him to be better.
20:04
And as a young player you don't always see the people with like
20:07
those leadership qualities. But I think he can bring a lot.
20:10
And you know, the fact that toward the end of the year he
20:13
wasn't himself last year either. Couldn't play after he had the
20:16
surgery, but for a while he couldn't be in the field and be
20:19
a difference maker that he was in that regard.
20:21
Like, I think a healthy Brendan Donovan makes a difference to
20:23
this team. I think Arenado is probably the
20:26
biggest wild card because we know how intense he can get.
20:30
And I think last year he sort of it, it just all soured on him
20:34
because he could tell early on where it was going, which was
20:37
nowhere. The seat, you know, he was.
20:38
He came to Saint Louis to to win a championship, right.
20:41
And so to only get a brief taste of that in the the the previous
20:45
playoff series and they go out O2 and then you followed up with
20:49
that, like I think he probably had to dig internally and go,
20:53
all right, I hated all this obviously.
20:56
But for the team around me to be able to get the most out of
20:59
itself in 2024, I've got to channel those things in a really
21:04
effective way, use it as fuel. And now I think he can do
21:08
something about it, because they're not 15 games below 500.
21:12
Like he probably wanted to do that last year, but you can't at
21:15
a certain point change the reality of the standings.
21:17
And so I really do think that the vibe of being O&O to start
21:22
the season could be a difference maker for a team that for
21:24
basically five months last year knew that it was toast, even if
21:29
it wouldn't say it publicly. They just knew that the season
21:32
was done before it ever really got started.
21:35
And that's that's probably not a great environment to play in.
21:38
And that's why I think so much is on the line and the more I
21:42
think about it and the more you talk I I think more about now
21:45
we've we've discussed this in previous shows.
21:48
So I I went from basically management, ownership, coaching
21:52
staff, players look at the two studs on the corners that that
21:56
we just talked about and what is potentially on the line now.
22:00
I think the Cardinals are going to be good.
22:01
I think the Pakoda 85 is about fair, but if things go sour, you
22:06
have Goldie entering the year without a contract and all of a
22:09
sudden, even if he wanted to come back, I want to win, man.
22:13
I got two, maybe three years left.
22:16
If they're bad again, if they're bad in 2024 and Goldie doesn't
22:20
have an extension, he's probably being moved at the trade
22:24
deadline, then who knows? Look at Nolan Arenado.
22:27
We know that in the past, when he hasn't won at a Colorado,
22:31
he's essentially forced his way out of of that organization with
22:35
the Rockies. I'm not saying he would do that.
22:37
And and and force himself out. But what if they have two
22:40
straight really bad seasons all of a sudden?
22:43
No one. Arenado probably wants to be
22:45
traded. I I I think those things are all
22:47
on the table if they have a crap year.
22:50
In last year, when the Dodgers front office basically had the
22:55
media blitz, remember that when the the articles about Arenado
22:58
to the Dodgers were kind of coming out and that wasn't
23:01
anything that Arenado was necessarily fueling.
23:04
But the the powers that be with the Dodgers, I think we're kind
23:08
of leaking that stuff out there to kind of grease the wheels a
23:10
little bit, you know, because now if it's another bad season,
23:13
maybe Arenado's not trying to, you know, take a crowbar and pry
23:17
himself out from baseball heaven.
23:20
But like, is there a scenario where then the Dodgers are
23:22
winning a bunch of games and Arenado sees that and knows that
23:27
they want him. And it's like, I mean if
23:29
something happened, I would, I'd play there, you know, I'd, I
23:32
would go like I think that's more the way that it could play
23:35
out. Cardinal is not on this team in
23:36
2025. The Cardinals don't win this
23:38
year. That's my prediction.
23:39
I just would be shocked because I think exactly what you
23:42
describe with Goldie, if the Cardinals don't win, whether
23:45
Goldie's great or not in the midst of them not winning, I
23:49
think it sets up for potentially the Cardinals to look at their
23:51
situation and go, you know, we got this Bally's thing going on,
23:55
there's some uncertainty in the air.
23:57
Maybe we we we step back a little bit by not replacing the
24:01
salary of Goldsmidt. When he walks, you know, we just
24:04
he's going to walk and it is what it is.
24:05
Or if they're bad enough, they'll trade him in July.
24:07
And then once that happens and you're Arenado, you can see the
24:10
writing on the wall. So very quickly the team shed 60
24:13
million and has just like a minor reset in 2025.
24:17
I think that's a legitimate possibility if they don't win.
24:20
So yeah, all those things with the coaching staff and the
24:23
manager and Mosaic, all those things are definitely on the
24:26
line in various ways. But I would agree the
24:28
cornerstones of the franchise at first and third base that is up
24:32
in the air pending the result of this season, I don't think
24:35
that's like like chicken little stuff to say.
24:39
And we recorded last Thursday, so the Keenan Middleton move was
24:43
on Friday. Want to get your, your take on
24:46
that? You like me.
24:46
I'm not as much of A fantasy baseball nerd as I used to be,
24:49
but I know you're all in it with the baseball and football.
24:52
So I like the fact because when you hear the names for for me
24:56
and you, I think Andrew Kittredge and then Keenan
24:59
Middleton, you think, oh, those are those guys that would always
25:01
vulture you about 5 saves every once in a while.
25:04
Keenan Middleton with the Angels back in the day, you had the
25:06
Rays for a while where like everybody on the team had eight
25:09
saves. You know, they had like 9 guys
25:11
getting who's the closer. It's like I'm going off on a
25:15
tangent, but it's like the New England Patriots running back
25:18
situation. You can't trust any of those
25:20
guys ever under under Bill Belichick.
25:23
But I guess it's the perfect scenario because look, Helsley's
25:26
a stud. But if his usage is still going
25:28
to be not necessarily a lot of back to backs.
25:32
Look if if healthy, if if Helsley's healthy he should he
25:36
should be 3035 pushing 40 saves. But you're going to need other
25:40
guys on those other days and that's where I think sprinkling
25:42
in a kit Ridge, a Middleton, even a GO with a lefty matchup
25:46
of Romero or whatever Lipitor is going to do or or Thompson.
25:49
You just need, you need a basically a bin of other guys to
25:53
help out high leverage spots. And I think the Cardinals have
25:56
achieved that because I I do think they needed one more guy
26:00
and they got Kittredge. And I think Middleton is that
26:03
just one more proven guy. He's as much certainty as you
26:06
can get for a reliever. Yeah, and it's not that he's a
26:09
superstar, but he he did some good things last year,
26:13
especially after being traded, where I I think he threw more
26:16
change UPS last year than basically any other year.
26:20
And toward the end of the season, he had like 12
26:22
appearances for the Yankees, 14 innings, had 17 strikeouts, had
26:27
like A18ERA47 strikeouts with the White Sox on the season.
26:33
He was 64 K's in 50 innings. That's the thing that jumped out
26:37
the most to me is like they do. They talked about it a lot last
26:41
year, but then with the guys they brought in, it was like,
26:43
did you add enough swing and miss to your pitching staff?
26:47
You know, it kind of remains to be seen.
26:49
I think guys like Gray and Lynn can strike some guys out, but
26:52
Kyle Gibson won't. Michaelis is still here.
26:54
So like there was some question adding a guy who struck out a
26:57
ton of dudes last year. If I know nothing else about
27:00
him, I'm like, all right, I'm, I'm in on that and I don't think
27:02
I I still haven't seen if it was reported what it cost them.
27:05
I don't know if that has been out and I just missed it, but
27:08
I'm assuming not that much. I think there's an option for
27:10
2025 as well that they can figure out.
27:13
But yeah, to get Kittredge and to get Middleton, I mean you've
27:17
got a good number of guys from the right side now that you feel
27:20
good about and I feel good about Romero.
27:22
I think he's a good. He's a good one and I still kind
27:25
of think Liberator is going to end up in the bullpen and be
27:27
good and so that's like 2 good lefties.
27:29
And another thing about Middleton too as a right-hander.
27:32
He had reverse splits kind of like Palante where he's better
27:35
against left-handed batter. So you can use him and maybe a
27:39
number of ways as well. Injuries are going to happen.
27:42
There's going to be attrition to your bullpen, but to start the
27:45
year with a a group of, I would say at least a handful of guys
27:48
that you go. Yeah, if he's in a leverage spot
27:51
early in the season like he's done that before, or I feel he's
27:54
capable of getting the outs that you need.
27:56
That's a good combo to pair with a rotation that all they said is
27:59
basically get us quality starts, get us 6 innings, three runs,
28:03
get us to the back end of that bullpen a little bit more
28:06
smoothly. The Bridge has to be better in
28:09
that 5th, 6th inning. I think they signed a rotation
28:11
that can accomplish that. Even if they don't have a bunch
28:14
of guys who are going to have a 2 ERA.
28:16
Like I can see the puzzle fitting better this year than it
28:20
did last year. That's just on paper.
28:22
It hasn't happened yet. So that would be the cautionary
28:24
moment. But I do think it makes sense
28:26
with what they're trying to do, what they're hoping to
28:28
accomplish. Yeah, and that's where I think
28:30
adding the innings, and we've already discussed this, but
28:33
adding the innings and people will say, oh, their ER as are 4
28:37
1/2. But adding the innings helps the
28:40
bullpen just in terms of usage. And then the swing and miss,
28:45
which I think so swing and miss is now becoming this thing that
28:48
even when I say it, I start to chuckle.
28:50
Because there are probably people that are saying, well,
28:52
you shut up with the with the swing and miss.
28:54
But here's where I think it really matters, even if it's a
28:57
bunch of bullpen guys that just strike out more people than last
29:00
year. Even if it's somebody like Lynn
29:03
and you add in Sonny Gray. Just here's why the more
29:07
strikeouts matter for the Cardinals.
29:09
This is not the Cardinals team of whenever it was 234 years ago
29:14
where essentially everybody was a Gold Glover, you had yati you
29:18
had at the coroners Arenado, Goldie, you had Edmund winning a
29:22
Gold Glove. I know Donovan was the utility
29:25
guy the one year, but I'm saying go back to the years of Harrison
29:29
Bader winning a Gold Glove. Even that you're doing.
29:33
Tyler O'Neill wins a Gold Glover.
29:34
He wins, too. Carlson's throwing out a bunch
29:37
of runners from the outfield. This is not that defensive team.
29:41
And let's be real, Wilson Contreras is not a great
29:45
receiver. We we we hope he's better.
29:47
He's never going to be Yachty. We hope he can be 5 to 10 to 15%
29:51
better. But the reason I'm I'm long
29:54
winded on this, but every time the ball can just hit Wilson
29:58
Contreras's catcher's Mitt and the batter can be out and the
30:03
ball is not put into play where you either Now have a guy like
30:06
Wilson Contreras who you don't necessarily love as a receiver
30:10
and you have a defense that is not the defensive 4 years ago.
30:14
Every extra strikeout helps this team immensely because they're
30:19
not that great defensive team anymore and Wilson Contreras is
30:22
not going to control the running game like Yachty.
30:24
So the swing and miss is super, super important.
30:28
It is important, and I agree they're not the same defensive
30:31
team. I think there's a chance that
30:33
people like if if the best case scenario unfolds and the
30:37
Cardinals win like 89 or 90 games and it's like back to
30:40
business as usual in Saint Louis.
30:43
I think part of that story looking back will end up being
30:45
that they found their principles defensively again.
30:49
And the way that I think it's plausible that that can happen
30:52
is the push to have Tommy Edmond be the center fielder because he
30:55
has great range and he did a nice job last year without ever
30:59
really doing it. And so now he's spent an
31:01
offseason with that on his mind. Now, I know he hasn't been able
31:04
to do a whole lot because of the wrist surgery, but like, he's
31:07
going into a season knowing this is my role rather than just
31:12
middle of the year. Last year took a shot and made
31:14
it happen. So I feel good about that.
31:16
Defensively, it's always about up the middle, right?
31:18
And I think Mason Wynne can be a Gold Glove caliber shortstop and
31:21
has more upside than even the guys like the Young who were
31:24
good defensively, but they weren't great and they never had
31:28
like with a flashy arm. He would just kind of make the
31:30
plays he was supposed to make. Mason Wynne can be a difference
31:33
maker in stealing some more out. So I think anchoring center
31:37
field with a good player that has range and speed because
31:40
you've got Walker on your your side, that's not going to be
31:43
elite defensively. That would be helpful.
31:45
And put Newpar where he's more serviceable and makes more sense
31:48
in left. And then have a great defensive
31:50
shortstop. Like maybe that can be those two
31:53
things. And it's why I've talked so much
31:54
about that. It's like, can Mason win hit?
31:56
Because if he can, I think it's actually going to help their
31:58
defense a lot to be able to align everybody where they can
32:01
help the pitching staff in a way that they did not do it all last
32:05
year. OK.
32:06
So I want to get back to where we started with Pakoda and talk
32:11
about some other teams in the division because so the Brewers
32:16
being projected at 79, I actually think that's going to
32:19
be less because I think the Brewers are not going to have a
32:22
great season and I think they'll they'll sell off assets again at
32:26
the deadline. So I'm, I'm just looking at the
32:29
Cardinals true competition in the Central.
32:32
And to me I actually think it's more likely if the Reds can make
32:37
a surge and they would want to try to compete.
32:40
I think there's a better shot that the Reds are pushing the
32:43
Cardinals than the Brewers. Now, to me, the big question is
32:47
the Cubs. The Cubs still haven't done very
32:51
much, and they're they're projected at eighty wins.
32:54
I'm looking at the Cubs rotation, though.
32:57
We know Justin Steele's really good.
32:59
Kyle Hendricks Been there forever.
33:00
Jameson Tion. Jordan Wicks Drew Smiley.
33:04
OK, so are you excited for this? In the while you were talking,
33:07
the Cubs have added the pitcher. They haven't added one, but you
33:10
forgot a guy that they did add show to Imanaga, the other
33:13
Japanese pitcher they did pick up.
33:15
Now there's some skepticism on how effective his game is going
33:18
to translate. I think he can be pretty good,
33:20
but maybe not like a number one. Number two, he's not a Yamamoto
33:24
but can at least fill a spot in their rotation that's solid.
33:27
So I think that is a question mark and and doesn't it feel
33:30
like if they wanted to Chicago big market, they could make a
33:34
splash like we in our brains have it in tune of what we
33:38
expect the Cardinals payroll to be because they talk about it so
33:41
damn much. But with the Cubs, it's like
33:43
they could decide to spend a lot of money or they could decide
33:45
not to. And it feels like it could go
33:47
either way. And maybe that's still something
33:49
that's pending with names like Snell and Montgomery and and
33:52
Bellinger. Like they could bring back
33:54
Bellinger and I think that would help them because he played
33:56
really well for them last year. So they're interesting.
33:58
The Reds are interesting because of how much young pitching they
34:01
have. Like, you play fantasy.
34:03
So a lot of those Reds guys like Hunter Green and Ladolo and
34:08
Brandon Williamson, like they've got a bunch of dudes that if
34:12
they all take the step at the same time, that's what makes
34:15
them dangerous because they have young pitching that is at at
34:18
this point, unproven. But if they prove it, then it's
34:21
like, oh, the Reds are a thing now because they have the thing
34:24
that everybody wants, which is controllable pitching, anchoring
34:26
a pretty good rotation. That's what makes them scary to
34:29
me. So I kind of see them in the
34:30
same light. And the Brewers, I kind of agree
34:32
with you as well. I don't know if like they could
34:34
win 80 games, but I just don't know what gets them over the
34:36
hump if they don't have the the pitching.
34:39
Right. And so my bad on that with
34:41
Imanaga. So, no.
34:43
So Drew Smiley to me is still a guy who he gives you starts.
34:50
Like last year for the Cubs he started 23 games, but he
34:54
appeared in 41 games through to a 5 ERA.
34:58
So the the amount of money he's making still to me there's
35:04
flexibility to be a swing guy. I'm sure he wants to be a a
35:08
starter but but if they still wanted to spend an ad, like I
35:11
said a Snell or Montgomery and and maybe they don't but I I I
35:15
feel like the opportunity is there.
35:17
It it wasn't like last year with the Cardinals where last year it
35:21
was hard for the Cardinals to add a starter even though you
35:24
didn't love all their starters, but they all had contracts like
35:28
you weren't you weren't going to kick any of those dudes in the
35:30
bullpen. Now you can make the argument
35:32
that Steven Matz could be kicked to the bullpen.
35:34
He already was last year. But I still think you're paying
35:37
a lot of money for him to be a starter.
35:40
So it's it's hard to have on paper 6 starters who are getting
35:44
paid. That's why having that swing
35:47
flexibility with a young guy sometimes helps.
35:49
So I do think there's an advantage the Cubs current set
35:53
up if they did want to put Smiley in the bullpen.
35:58
He's a guy that pitched out of the bullpen a bit last year,
36:00
even though he also made 20 plus starts.
36:02
So if they did want to add a Montgomery, a Snell and really
36:06
bolster that rotation, I feel like Smiley's the type of swing
36:11
guy that can go to the pen and people aren't all mad about it.
36:14
I I do think they have more flexibility in that regard than
36:17
the Cardinals had last year. And like even then the Cardinals
36:20
have this year because you still have Steven Matz as your sort of
36:23
#5 making 11,000,000 and fans would say hey to get the elite
36:28
rotation you need go sign Montgomery back or go get one of
36:31
these guys. But I I just don't think that
36:33
there's a a position for the Cardinals to be able to
36:36
realistically do that. Like they could but it it's also
36:40
kind of hard to have the free agent signing go.
36:42
I can count 2 and know that you've got five.
36:45
Like are you really going to move a guy making 11 million or
36:48
is this going to be a situation where I'm I'm caught in
36:50
something that I don't want to be in.
36:52
I think the Cubs have way more flexibility in that regard and
36:55
again the payroll muscle to use it if they want to just because
36:59
I think that ownership group has been kind of been cheaper than
37:03
they necessarily need to be given the market size and
37:06
everything that goes into that. So if they wanted to add one
37:08
more, they would definitely be probably the chief threat to the
37:11
Cardinals in the Central. And also adding at the deadline.
37:15
I mean it's funny to talk about money.
37:16
They spend it all on the on the manager and Hector Naris.
37:20
That's a lot of money for a reliever, but you would think
37:23
they have some some dry powder, especially if they're in it at
37:26
the deadline to to go big. Yeah.
37:30
What do they pay Hector Naris? Because I I think that was kind
37:33
of a it was just a one year contract.
37:35
But yeah, it was. That's interesting because I
37:37
thought when they signed, when they when they took the manager
37:40
from the Brewers, Craig Counsel, that it was going to be like,
37:43
hey, this is the Cubs are here to spend and make it happen.
37:46
But it's kind of been in fits and starts.
37:48
OK, you get the second best Japanese pitcher, you get
37:51
Director Naris and you spend up on him.
37:53
I kind of prefer the way the Cardinals attacked with the the
37:56
Kittredge trade and the signing for Middleton.
37:59
Again, I don't know, maybe he is making 9 million, but I feel
38:01
like they were a little more economical, which again, it's
38:04
not my money. But when you're talking about
38:06
knowing that those limitations exist, I like the way they've
38:09
attacked the bullpen. Rather than like give a $40
38:12
million contract to Jordan Hicks and have him flame out, I think
38:15
they've gone about it. Not to say he'll flame out, but
38:17
he's going to try to be a starter.
38:18
Now that's a whole different thing.
38:20
But I I think I like the way they've approached the bullpen.
38:23
It's just some of these guys that they've kind of taken a
38:25
flyer on will have to hit behind the big hitters, I think to to
38:29
really make it work. You know, you and I really
38:31
didn't discuss that because you brought it up.
38:34
I know it was a long time ago, but aren't you kind of shocked
38:37
that he got that money to to still try out to be a starter
38:43
when he's tried it before. But man, that's a lot of money.
38:46
Don't get me wrong. He's still a really good bullpen
38:48
arm so he'd probably get. Let's just say he gets the same
38:51
the nearest the 9 million, OK, times 4.
38:55
The money's not that crazy. But to give the man who's who's
38:59
a proven reliever and and the uncertainty of being a starter,
39:04
that surprised me. I think it's probably like like
39:09
he wants it. He's always wanted to be a
39:10
starter. So when you're a free agent and
39:12
you can go to team and say hey, if you sign me I want a chance
39:16
to start and the Giants can be like okay, sounds great.
39:18
Like I would be curious to know like I doubt I doubt the Giants
39:21
came to him and said hey we really like you to be our
39:24
starter this year. I kind of feel like, hey, we
39:26
like you and Jordan Hicks is like, what do you think about
39:30
this being a possibility? You're his agent and the Giants
39:33
probably look into it and go, all right, I think we can give
39:34
this a shot, but if it doesn't work, you can always fall back
39:38
on him being a good back end reliever for ten, $11 million a
39:42
season, which is again, a little pricey but not crazy and not all
39:45
too different to the the contract he probably would have
39:48
gotten as a reliever anyway. You might hesitate to go a
39:51
fourth year if the guy's only a reliever, but I think the money
39:54
like you said, not too crazy. I hope it works out.
39:58
For one, I think it would be great for Hicks because it's
40:00
what he's always wanted. But for two Cardinals fans would
40:02
hate it because they would say why.
40:04
Why couldn't he do it here and the Cardinals messed him up like
40:07
it? That the fodder would be
40:09
tremendous if he ends up being like a a great at All Star
40:13
caliber starting pitcher at the end of the day.
40:16
All right, we'll go a little shorter on this one.
40:18
Just because, let's be honest, there's nothing going on.
40:21
I ruined it. Brendan's mad at me because I
40:24
answered all the questions myself.
40:25
I took all that YouTube money for myself.
40:28
The angst is very high in this podcast for sure.
40:31
So tell folks about your spring training schedule.
40:34
We'll try to do a podcast next week.
40:36
If you're super busy, it's all good.
40:38
But tell people about your schedule content.
40:41
Yeah, I want to do it. I want to try to.
40:43
Make it work for next week if we can, because I'll be in Jupiter.
40:46
I'm driving down, which I've done the past couple of years.
40:48
I'll leave the Monday morning after the Super Bowl and it'll
40:52
take me, you know, 20 hours or a couple of days, whatever I do to
40:54
break it up. So by like Wednesday for sure,
40:56
I'll be down at the campus at Roger Dean, which I hear is
41:00
exactly the same as I left it. They were supposed to have a
41:02
bunch of renovations and like none of it happened.
41:05
So we'll we'll see the same place we've always seen, which
41:07
will be great. But yeah, I'll be down there for
41:10
like close to three weeks I think till early March.
41:13
I'll head back so I'll get a good feel for camp.
41:15
I'll get to see some Grapefruit League action action.
41:18
I should say. I will do the podcast with
41:21
Charlie. I'll do my podcast, my YouTube
41:23
channel, youtube.com slash at B Schaefer 12.
41:26
Just type Brendan Schaefer Cardinals into the the search
41:28
bar and you'll probably find it and we'll be doing a lot of that
41:31
and all my writing will be with kmovfirstalert4.com.
41:35
So hopefully a lot of good stories and like stuff to
41:37
actually talk about That's what I'm excited for Charlie because
41:40
yeah we we kind of we squeezed the the every little drop out of
41:43
this lemon that we could of a 2023 season and now it's time to
41:47
look forward and hopefully have some new storylines to talk
41:50
about sure and and. Obviously I'm live at Busch
41:53
Stadium right now. Yeah, you're still there.
41:55
In the next couple weeks, I will.
41:57
Be live from Spring Training in the sense that I'll have a
41:59
backdrop that looks like Cardinal Spring Training even
42:03
though I'm sitting at. Yes, even though I'm sitting at
42:06
my. It'll look like you're like
42:08
you're at the picnic table. Hey, I got a lot of stock.
42:11
Photos from previous spring training.
42:13
So even though I'm sitting. In Saint Louis I.
42:15
Will look like I may be sitting at the picnic table in beautiful
42:18
Jupiter and going to that place that you get the the Mahi Trio
42:22
salad down the what's that restaurant called We always go
42:25
to it's right there walkable. Walkable.
42:29
Is it the? Cuban Place or a different place
42:31
because I got to tell you, they've done some.
42:33
There's some changes that have been made with the restaurants
42:35
in that little circle. It's for the better.
42:37
I mean there's some good stuff, but I'm trying to remember your
42:39
place. I can't remember Jumby Bay
42:42
maybe. I'm trying to remember Jumby Bay
42:43
not to get out pre advertising. I think they're still there.
42:46
But there, yeah, there's a lot of good walkable places down
42:48
there. My, I'm doing an Airbnb.
42:49
I'm staying like, on the other side of the golf course.
42:52
That's right there in Abacoa. So I won't even have to drive
42:56
very far. I'm pretty excited and I'm glad
42:59
that next week we won't have to complain about Charlie taking
43:02
all the questions because I might actually be able to bring
43:04
some topics to the table and maybe it'll salvage our
43:08
friendship and we'll be able to to move forward from this.
43:10
I'm going to call it an incident that happened this week.
43:13
So I'm looking forward to that. Yeah.
43:16
OK, before I let you go. Super Bowl pick prediction
43:19
What's going to happen? How I once.
43:22
The Chiefs beat the Bills. I was like, all right, they have
43:25
Patrick Mahomes. The rest of the teams don't.
43:27
So I'm kind of in the mind that this should be more of a
43:30
pick'em. I know the Chiefs are an
43:31
underdog. I think the Chiefs will win.
43:33
I don't think it'll be terribly high scoring because the the the
43:36
Chiefs defense has been what's carried them.
43:38
I'm hoping Brock Purdy throws a bunch of picks.
43:40
Like, I want to like the guy, but I think the narrative around
43:43
Brock Purdy is like, all right, Like we don't have to pretend
43:47
he's like the best because he's got all these amazing players to
43:51
catches, touchdowns and run the ball in.
43:53
So I'm not trying to be a Broth Purdy hater, but it kind of
43:55
feels like for for Sunday I will be Gimme Chiefs 24, 49ers 17.
44:03
I'm going to go Chiefs. 3024, I'm not going.
44:07
To I'm not going to bet. Against Patrick Mahomes, like I
44:09
did last year, I took the Eagles.
44:11
Oh no, I had a lot of fun last. Super.
44:13
Bowl watching down at my Airbnb in Florida, it was it was very
44:16
good very good time really throw out this you know you're kind
44:19
of. You know, this this rich Airbnb
44:21
guy. You're kind of throwing this out
44:22
there a lot. Look.
44:23
If I was. Rich, I wouldn't.
44:24
You get a. Hotel wouldn't but but Airbnb is
44:27
a way to kind of trim some costs and and and help out the
44:31
station. You know you just want to help
44:32
out those who are sending you on this on this journey and be able
44:35
to do good work for them. And you know I think it's
44:38
cheaper than hotels. So I I'm not trying to do ads
44:41
for Airbnb either, but if they if they want, you know, we can
44:44
talk about it, love it all. Right.
44:46
Brendan Schaefer, I think our friendship will prevail.
44:49
A thank you Sir. And a great podcast, Low hanging
44:54
fruit, comment, like, subscribe, share the show, share the
44:58
channel, follow B Schafe daily as well.
45:01
And now I will sign off live from Busch Stadium and Brendan
45:06
live from the the spare bedroom and I kind of like this
45:10
backdrop, but comment and let me know.
45:12
Is it distracting? We'll see.
45:15
I'm gonna Dude, now that this is again, I can never end a show.
45:18
You know how you have your new toy?
45:20
This is Yeah. So like, I've done Stream Yard
45:22
for 2-3 years and I did zoom before that.
45:24
I never use the backgrounds, but now that I'm, I got one, it's
45:28
going to be my new toy and I'm going to put all kinds of crazy
45:30
backgrounds all the time. Now can I do that?
45:34
Let me see. Did it change for me?
45:36
Yes. Bricks.
45:37
Yeah, I don't like the bricks. Not a fan of the Hey, why don't
45:40
you hit the bricks all? Right.
45:41
All right. I'll do.
45:42
I'll do that. End this thing, would you?
45:45
All right. I will see you guys later.
45:46
Comment. Like, Subscribe.
45:47
Love you all. Spring training is here next
45:49
week. It'll be great.
45:50
See ya.