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EMERGENCY SHOW: CUBS LAND EDWARD CABRERA · Monday Morning Cubs Show

0:05
SPEAKER_00: We're clear.
0:06
SPEAKER_00: Good morning, good afternoon, and evening Chicago Cubs fans, and welcome back to the Monday Morning Cub Show.
0:11
SPEAKER_00: This is an emergency podcast to break down the Edward Cabrera trade to the Chicago Cubs today.
0:17
SPEAKER_00: Huge move.
0:19
SPEAKER_00: So this is just a special emergency solo show.
0:21
SPEAKER_00: Shout out Mahoney traveling for work.
0:24
SPEAKER_00: This is the Monday morning Cub Show.
0:27
SPEAKER_00: Typically out Monday mornings, but I can't wait till next Monday morning.
0:31
SPEAKER_00: Post Bears Packers.
0:33
SPEAKER_00: So much going on.
0:34
SPEAKER_00: I think it's worthy now.
0:36
SPEAKER_00: What do we do every time we do a solo show?
0:39
SPEAKER_00: Make a time commitment.
0:41
SPEAKER_00: We're going to go 20-25 minutes here.
0:43
SPEAKER_00: I'm not going to beat you guys up with everything you need to know about Edward Cabrera.
0:48
SPEAKER_00: I think overall, though, it's important right now in the moment.
0:52
SPEAKER_00: Let's just gather ourselves.
0:54
SPEAKER_00: First off, shout out Jed.
0:56
SPEAKER_00: I think this is a home run move.
0:58
SPEAKER_00: We're going to get into some of the mechanics of it.
1:00
SPEAKER_00: Like giving up Owen Casey when originally got Casey through Udarvish, surrendering$63 million on the Udarvish contract.
1:09
SPEAKER_00: There's some like you want to wind the clock back.
1:11
SPEAKER_00: There's some really nice components here where this makes sense in the long run.
1:15
SPEAKER_00: Now we have this elite 6'5, 220 Dominican, 28 years old, big time stuff, which fits into the fact that we do have starting rotation depth.
1:25
SPEAKER_00: So before we get into this, I would just ask if you guys get a chance, subscribe to the show.
1:29
SPEAKER_00: Maybe throw a five-star review.
1:31
SPEAKER_00: I'd probably rather have you give a five-star review than subscribe to the show.
1:37
SPEAKER_00: I guess if I had to pick one, I'd prefer to pick both.
1:40
SPEAKER_00: That would be nice.
1:42
SPEAKER_00: I'll crank emergency shows all fucking offseason.
1:45
SPEAKER_00: I gotta watch the F words.
1:46
SPEAKER_00: I do, I very much have to.
1:48
SPEAKER_00: But we'll do off-season breakdowns, you know.
1:52
SPEAKER_00: I'm adding to the to the programming this season for sure.
1:55
SPEAKER_00: I don't think one show is enough.
1:57
SPEAKER_00: I do think we have to do a Friday morning weekend preview show.
2:01
SPEAKER_00: I think so.
2:02
SPEAKER_00: But in the time being, would appreciate a review, five stars.
2:07
SPEAKER_00: Keeps the lights on, helps with sponsors.
2:08
SPEAKER_00: Not to get too deep.
2:09
SPEAKER_00: Let's just talk about Edward Cabrera for a second.
2:11
SPEAKER_00: Overall, I'm giving this one an A.
2:15
SPEAKER_00: I could be too optimistic, but I think I've built up enough goodwill with you guys that A, I'm like relatively jaded, you know, particularly when it comes to starting pitching.
2:27
SPEAKER_00: And I certainly don't like just giving credit just because we have action here.
2:32
SPEAKER_00: You know, I haven't done that with the bullpen either.
2:34
SPEAKER_00: I do like the ads.
2:36
SPEAKER_00: I do like what Jed's done in the offseason leading up to this trade.
2:40
SPEAKER_00: And we've talked extensively this offseason about I don't see it coming big time in free agency.
2:46
SPEAKER_00: Now I could be wrong.
2:47
SPEAKER_00: There's some reports, Bob Chet, maybe Cody Ballinger is a good fit now that we've traded Owen Casey.
2:51
SPEAKER_00: There's some questions here.
2:54
SPEAKER_00: You know, we're gonna solve some of that stuff tonight.
2:56
SPEAKER_00: We're gonna talk through some of this shit.
2:58
SPEAKER_00: What like what are the what what are the next steps?
3:01
SPEAKER_00: What are the consequences of this move?
3:02
SPEAKER_00: But for now I'm just saying A minus.
3:04
SPEAKER_00: You know, originally I was gonna say B plus, and that's because he's hurt all the time.
3:10
SPEAKER_00: That's Edward Cabrera is an elite, elite right-handed pitcher, stuff-wise.
3:18
SPEAKER_00: I think he might have either rocks in his head, or this is another thing, and I mean this sincerely.
3:26
SPEAKER_00: I've talked about the Orioles like this.
3:28
SPEAKER_00: I will lump the Miami Marlins into this category.
3:30
SPEAKER_00: They're terrible at developing pitchers, uh, particularly with pitchability.
3:37
SPEAKER_00: They have elite stuff, they bring in so many, they do such a good job uh with the farm system developmentally, particularly with power Latin arms, historically.
3:48
SPEAKER_00: It is a hot bet.
3:49
SPEAKER_00: That's the South Florida.
3:50
SPEAKER_00: There are connections, the scouting aspects of this.
3:52
SPEAKER_00: We're not doing a deep dive on the Marlins organization here, other than to say they're terrible at the big league level developing and sustaining success in the big league start in their starting staff.
4:03
SPEAKER_00: And they've always had a problem, even with free agents, but they've always had talented guys, I should say.
4:08
SPEAKER_00: Historically speaking, when I think of the Marlins, I think of talented, right-handed, great stuff.
4:14
SPEAKER_00: Cabrera fits the mold perfectly.
4:16
SPEAKER_00: I also think of underachievers.
4:18
SPEAKER_00: Now, Cabrera's got a ton of injury history.
4:21
SPEAKER_00: That's where I was in this B B plus area.
4:24
SPEAKER_00: But I gotta go back to A minus because this stuff is so good and fits so well with the Cubs rotation.
4:31
SPEAKER_00: The contract is incredible.
4:33
SPEAKER_00: Four years of control, not a free agent until 2029,$3.75 million this year.
4:38
SPEAKER_00: Just$3.75 million.
4:41
SPEAKER_00: For the stuff that he has, people are charging$22 plus.
4:45
SPEAKER_00: This is I'm talking Dylan Sees level stuff, Michael King level stuff, uh, the top end stuff in the starting in the rotate in the starting pitching market this offseason, right?
4:58
SPEAKER_00: What did Dylan Cease just sign?
5:00
SPEAKER_00: Seven years, two ten.
5:01
SPEAKER_00: Dylan Cease has a better body of work and he's a healthier pitcher.
5:04
SPEAKER_00: But if the stuff standing next to each other, I don't think Dylan Sees is that much nastier.
5:10
SPEAKER_00: I think they're in that conversation, even if Dylan Case's stuff is better, even if people are rolling their eyes right now.
5:17
SPEAKER_00: The conversation for Edward Cabrera is putting him into that.
5:20
SPEAKER_00: That's the category of stuff we're talking about.
5:22
SPEAKER_00: And for purposes of saying just$3.75 million in 26, then arbitration years.
5:28
SPEAKER_00: And that's important because what we've talked about is the lockout that's coming at 27.
5:32
SPEAKER_00: So when you're trading for a guy, it's not just right now.
5:35
SPEAKER_00: Looking ahead, there's control for three years.
5:38
SPEAKER_00: You know it's not going to cost you more than six or seven million dollars next year, it's not gonna cost you more than ten million dollars a year after that.
5:44
SPEAKER_00: And it would have to, it would, if it does cost a lot in arbitration, it's because he's gone out and he's pitched his balls off and he's performed well.
5:53
SPEAKER_00: So we have him for four years.
5:54
SPEAKER_00: The contract's great.
5:56
SPEAKER_00: Another consideration, just rattling the shit off.
5:59
SPEAKER_00: And I have a whole list of stuff.
6:00
SPEAKER_00: We're just flying through this.
6:02
SPEAKER_00: I do feel very good about this trade.
6:05
SPEAKER_00: The Cubs pitch lab, Tommy Hotovy, who's the kid, who's the we did a whole show about the kid that was getting hired by the Nationals, a pitching coach.
6:15
SPEAKER_00: And the Cubs came back over the top and said, No, now we're gonna create a position, you're the VP of pitching.
6:20
SPEAKER_00: The Cubs have done a marvelous job with guys who aren't overly talented relative to major league stuff.
6:29
SPEAKER_00: Our pitch lab, I think that's what people are calling.
6:32
SPEAKER_00: I think that's the easiest way to explain it.
6:34
SPEAKER_00: Pitch design, you know, uh I suppose pitch selection, calling games, whatever that next level strategic component is that the Cubs are putting in place, whatever that proprietary element is or elements the Cubs have from a pitch lab, you know, whatever, whatever that intellectual property is that allows them to develop and work with pitchers at the major league level, you know, however crazy I sound right now, I think it's been proven over the last couple of years the the Cubs, more than A, historically with the Cubs and B across baseball right now, are doing a very good job at turning pitchers around that throw 90 fucking one miles an hour.
7:23
SPEAKER_00: So the pitch lab aspect for Edward Cabrera, the only issue I have now we're downgrading this, is with the injury history.
7:30
SPEAKER_00: I don't love our injury history.
7:32
SPEAKER_00: You know, I don't love that Kate Horton gets shut down at the end of the year, or that Justin Steele's out for the season, or that Shoda Imanaga's got wear and tear, or whatever the fuck it was with Jamison Tayan last year.
7:43
SPEAKER_00: You know?
7:45
SPEAKER_00: Or Javier Asad missed mo, I mean, almost the entire season.
7:49
SPEAKER_00: I don't know what that says about her organization, or is this specific to certain players?
7:53
SPEAKER_00: There's some stuff we'll get into with Edward Cabrera when we break him down specifically.
7:58
SPEAKER_00: Uh, you know, I'll talk a little bit about his pitch selection, what makes this guy so fucking good.
8:02
SPEAKER_00: I gotta watch the F-words.
8:04
SPEAKER_00: The thing I love about him, just move right past these swear words.
8:08
SPEAKER_00: Apologize.
8:10
SPEAKER_00: You could be listening with your son or your daughter, or the whole family, you know, light a fire.
8:19
SPEAKER_00: Sit sit around the fireplace tonight, listen to Carl talking of the void about a 28-year-old Dominican, 6'5, 220.
8:27
SPEAKER_00: I mean power monster stuff.
8:29
SPEAKER_00: Power stuff.
8:31
SPEAKER_00: Eddie Cabrera, big Eddie, a big ed, an easy E.
8:36
SPEAKER_00: A fluid right-handed monster of a motherfucker.
8:39
SPEAKER_00: Again with the F words.
8:42
SPEAKER_00: So overall, A minus.
8:45
SPEAKER_00: I gotta go back to the contract.
8:47
SPEAKER_00: The four years of control, 3.75 next year.
8:51
SPEAKER_00: For the injury concerns, that's great.
8:53
SPEAKER_00: I mean, that's unbelievable with the stuff.
8:55
SPEAKER_00: The reason the price is low is because he's been injured, because you don't really know what you're working with.
9:00
SPEAKER_00: And when it comes to arbitration, the thing that kills your value more than anything else, and and I should say generally with free agency as well, is your availability to play.
9:09
SPEAKER_00: And if you have injury history, it just kills you.
9:12
SPEAKER_00: Teams, you there's nobody you know who's willing to surrender that leverage.
9:18
SPEAKER_00: So that's what puts him at the table at a$3.75 million salary, but still allows me to say elite stuff, top of the rotation stuff.
9:28
SPEAKER_00: Now, we do have problems with execution, but not necessarily like we do with Ben Brown, and we'll get to that later.
9:36
SPEAKER_00: Not Ben Brown, but just the execution side.
9:38
SPEAKER_00: Another positive thing we like about Eddie Cabrera, just a big time changeup, and we have good change-ups in our rotation.
9:44
SPEAKER_00: Tommy Hotovie's been innovative with changeups, Jamison Tayant's picked up a new changeup, Kate Horton developed his changeup throughout the season last year.
9:52
SPEAKER_00: Did I see Daniel Palencia throwing a change up?
9:56
SPEAKER_00: You know, you see change up development under Hotovie with the Cubs is what I'm talking about.
10:01
SPEAKER_00: Addie Cabrera comes in with a big-time swing and miss changeup.
10:05
SPEAKER_00: That's just elite naturally.
10:07
SPEAKER_00: Now, the platform there, the canvas to work with this kid and paint him into what should be a top of the rotation pitcher if he's healthy, is very much there.
10:17
SPEAKER_00: The bones on this guy, unbelievable bones.
10:20
SPEAKER_00: Cannot say enough.
10:22
SPEAKER_00: So the return that we get for what we're gonna pay for this guy and how he fits into what we have, I think is awesome.
10:28
SPEAKER_00: We're not talking about the cost yet.
10:30
SPEAKER_00: Have I even said Owen Casey's name yet?
10:32
SPEAKER_00: 10 minutes, 30 seconds into the show.
10:34
SPEAKER_00: And there's a reason there, subliminally, that I'm just not that hung up on giving up Owen Casey.
10:41
SPEAKER_00: I'm not at all in the least bit.
10:43
SPEAKER_00: The price tag for Eddie Cabrera last year at the all-star break was Owen Casey plus a whole lot more than Christian Hernandez and Edgardo de Leon, who's the 18-year-old Dominican that I do like.
10:56
SPEAKER_00: We'll talk a little bit about those guys in a second.
10:58
SPEAKER_00: But just generally speaking, overall, I'm saying this is an A minus because of the contract, because of the stuff, because of the contract.
11:05
SPEAKER_00: How many times do I have to say the contract?
11:08
SPEAKER_00: The contract.
11:09
SPEAKER_00: The contract.
11:10
SPEAKER_00: You know, the changeup, obviously great.
11:12
SPEAKER_00: Our pitch lab, you know, we can work with guys, and I like the fact that this guy's gonna be coming in.
11:18
SPEAKER_00: He should have an open mind.
11:19
SPEAKER_00: He has injury history, he has not reached his potential.
11:24
SPEAKER_00: So he should be coming into this with an open mind towards, all right, I want to get paid more.
11:30
SPEAKER_00: I I it's his future at 28, being a free agent, I think 32 years old.
11:37
SPEAKER_00: It's time is now to go dominate and to get your shit together.
11:41
SPEAKER_00: And I hope the Cubs and Edward Cabrera collectively take advantage of what I think it should be a great, like all boxes checked here.
11:50
SPEAKER_00: Then the last very specific thing I want to point out about the fit into the Cubs rotation.
11:55
SPEAKER_00: I've got eight starters now on the Chicago Cubs.
11:58
SPEAKER_00: I'm just gonna rattle off foreseen fastball and velocity and where that ranks in major league percentile.
12:04
SPEAKER_00: So, like Shoda, 90.8, that's in the eighth percentile.
12:09
SPEAKER_00: Javier Asad, 91, 13th percentile, a healthy Justin Steele, 91.5, 16th percentile.
12:18
SPEAKER_00: Jamison Teon, 92.3, that's in the 20th percentile.
12:22
SPEAKER_00: I mean, we're not even close to 50th here, guys.
12:25
SPEAKER_00: And we're talking about like there's a there's hundreds of innings from starting pitchers right there.
12:30
SPEAKER_00: Matt Boyd, 93, 31st percentile.
12:33
SPEAKER_00: Now, again, effective guys.
12:35
SPEAKER_00: I I like our starting pitching, but talking about where Eddie Cabrera fits in, Colin Ray, 93.7, that's in the 37th percentile.
12:42
SPEAKER_00: So we have six guys that regularly take starts for the Cubs, should be in the mix for starts for the Cubs in 26, you know, going into spring training, guys.
12:51
SPEAKER_00: It will be competing to be in the starting rotation.
12:53
SPEAKER_00: I just listed six guys on the roster, not one of them in the top foot top 40th percentile.
13:00
SPEAKER_00: I mean, showed at 90, right?
13:02
SPEAKER_00: Even a healthy Justin Steele.
13:04
SPEAKER_00: Now, these guys have elite spin rates, pitch at the top of the zone, pitch inside, deceptive.
13:10
SPEAKER_00: There's a whole bunch of shit that goes into being successful at the big league level.
13:14
SPEAKER_00: But for just purposes of talking about stuff, Cade Horton, 95.7 in the 72nd percentile, and Edward Cabrera, 97 miles an hour, average forcing fastball, 87th percentile.
13:27
SPEAKER_00: One of the bigger fat one of the bigger right-handed fastballs in a starting pitcher.
13:31
SPEAKER_00: Uh, out of starting pitchers, I should say.
13:34
SPEAKER_00: So that's really the fit there.
13:36
SPEAKER_00: Which is a different look, which is a playoff look.
13:41
SPEAKER_00: You know, I mean, that's just a that's just a hard reality of how much different Edward Cabrera is relative to the rest of our starting pitchers.
13:54
SPEAKER_00: And the fact that we're not gonna ask him to be a one, we're gonna slot him probably, I would guess, in the four range.
14:03
SPEAKER_00: Probably Jamison Taeon is a five.
14:06
SPEAKER_00: We're probably gonna slot Eddie Cabrera in that four, maybe three.
14:10
SPEAKER_00: And I don't think there's gonna be much pressure.
14:12
SPEAKER_00: I think there's gonna be an emphasis on taking this guy in his development throughout the season.
14:17
SPEAKER_00: I think you'll see pitch counts early.
14:19
SPEAKER_00: But ultimately, I think we're gonna be molding this guy towards this October total shutdown top of the rotation guy, which is ultimately what the the Cubs are missing that outside of Kate Horton.
14:30
SPEAKER_00: Now, Justin Steele, I can't wait to see him pitch in October healthy because he has all of it.
14:35
SPEAKER_00: But from the perspective of a just a complete swing and miss guy, that's what we have in Eddie Cabrera.
14:41
SPEAKER_00: I'm I'm looking at this from the complete optimistic side where I think, you know, Hotovy can figure this out.
14:48
SPEAKER_00: Jed knows what he's doing, not too nervous about the injury stuff once we get going into this, especially with our starting pitching depth.
14:55
SPEAKER_00: And especially I've heard now rumblings from mainstream.
15:00
SPEAKER_00: Get ready for the six-man rotation.
15:03
SPEAKER_00: And not just the Cubs, but across baseball, which I had put out there, not because I heard it from the mainstream, but because I but just going through the Cubs roster and the starting pitching staff, it's like six-man works.
15:15
SPEAKER_00: Especially if we have a stable of veterans in the bullpen where we don't need to be giving guys opportunities and seeing what happens with like if there's defined roles in the bullpen, then it makes it easier to take one long reliever out of the bullpen and treat you as a six-starting pitcher.
15:32
SPEAKER_00: And I think if it's Edward Cabrera having limited innings early in the season, you know, so that we can manage his injuries, which are significant, you know.
15:43
SPEAKER_00: So let's talk quickly though about Owen Casey in the minor leaguers we gave up, right?
15:49
SPEAKER_00: So, like we saw a little bit of Owen Casey.
15:54
SPEAKER_00: I don't I don't love him, I don't hate him, you know, I don't I don't love him.
15:59
SPEAKER_00: And I I think with relative accuracy that the best we could do with him in 26 is around 300-350 plate appearances.
16:14
SPEAKER_00: And the reasoning for that is there's two positions available where he could get playing time, right field and DH.
16:22
SPEAKER_00: Say Suzuki's in that mix.
16:24
SPEAKER_00: Between the two positions throughout an entire season, you can say there's 1,300 combined plate appearances, maybe 1350.
16:33
SPEAKER_00: We'll just say for purposes of conversation, it's 1300.
16:37
SPEAKER_00: Say a Suzuki, you want to get at least 550, 600 of them.
16:43
SPEAKER_00: So say it's 600 for say a Suzuki.
16:46
SPEAKER_00: I mean, if if we're a 92 plus win team that takes a division over the Milwaukee Brewers, say a Suzuki's got to be healthy.
16:54
SPEAKER_00: He's got to be playing almost every day, and he's got to be hitting fourth or fifth in the lineup.
17:01
SPEAKER_00: There's 600 plate appearances there that he will take from right field and DH.
17:07
SPEAKER_00: So now we're talking about Owen Casey splitting time with Moises Ballesteros, who's a significantly better hitter who should be the everyday DH.
17:14
SPEAKER_00: That I think will be that I believe the Cubs I've love this guy inside it out for a whole bunch of good reasons.
17:22
SPEAKER_00: I think Owen Casey's at least a full step behind Moises Ballesteros right now, and I think that gap's gonna widen at least in the next year.
17:32
SPEAKER_00: So now you're saying maybe Owen Casey can get 300 plate appearances, maybe from the 2026 Cubs.
17:38
SPEAKER_00: And then I'd further argue, based on what we saw in his profile, how young he is.
17:45
SPEAKER_00: He's overmatched against big fastballs.
17:48
SPEAKER_00: He has he has a huge hole on basically the inner third of the strike zone, and obviously off the plate, too.
17:57
SPEAKER_00: For him to get to that, he's got to pull off the ball.
18:01
SPEAKER_00: So stuff you don't see in the minor leagues.
18:03
SPEAKER_00: I think in the major leagues that just eat Owen KC's lunch.
18:05
SPEAKER_00: I think he will be very good.
18:06
SPEAKER_00: I think he'll get bigger and stronger.
18:09
SPEAKER_00: I think five years from now we could be in a position to be like, damn, we had that guy.
18:13
SPEAKER_00: But what's important to remember right now is he wouldn't really be in a position to contribute to 26 without an injury to Saya, or Biosteros being a complete bust, which is not the case, it just isn't.
18:27
SPEAKER_00: So do I have to explain why Biosteros being a bust isn't possible like just trust me on that one.
18:36
SPEAKER_00: He's so he's so good, he's so good.
18:40
SPEAKER_00: The like closest comparable with confidence I have in a Cubs bat relative to Biosteros is Anthony Rizzo.
18:50
SPEAKER_00: So when he was coming up, and you're like, this is just way this guy's gonna be awesome.
18:53
SPEAKER_00: So that's where I feel with Biosteros.
18:55
SPEAKER_00: I don't have that sentiment with Owen Casey.
18:56
SPEAKER_00: I think he'll end up being pretty good.
18:58
SPEAKER_00: He's gonna have to play, like he's like at least 800 plate appearances.
19:02
SPEAKER_00: He's a full season and a half of play of regular playing time that he'll get with the Marlins from being uh from being even close to who he could become as a big leader, if that makes sense.
19:14
SPEAKER_00: But next year, there's it would be it would be foolish, it would be crazy.
19:19
SPEAKER_00: Now, people can disagree, that's fine.
19:21
SPEAKER_00: He can't I don't I'm I'm not shitting on Owen Casey as much as I'm saying right now, available trade this guy 100% if we're talking about improving 26 and knowing that the payroll and the books are wide open 27 going in the collective bargaining.
19:37
SPEAKER_00: So, and and I would just hope, and as we've talked extensively about cash flow with the Ricketts, that going into 27 out of the collective bargaining, that we have more cash to spend on payroll, that the luxury tax is higher, that there's just a better situation for Tom Ricketts to spend money.
19:55
SPEAKER_00: And that's kind of what I'm looking towards.
19:57
SPEAKER_00: Right now, Eddie Cabrera, three point seven.
20:00
SPEAKER_00: seven five million dollars and the cost is Owen Casey in the short term it's in it's a home run.
20:05
SPEAKER_00: In the long run, you could have some issues if Owen Casey turns out really fills out.
20:11
SPEAKER_00: And I'm talking about adding easily 20, 25 pounds to that frame and just being a big Goliath of a Canadian left-handed bat.
20:22
SPEAKER_00: Like that's very much in the cards for Owen Casey because he is a super young kid who can't grow facial hair, who's got feet way bigger than his fucking legs.
20:30
SPEAKER_00: You know what I mean?
20:31
SPEAKER_00: So like there's issues.
20:33
SPEAKER_00: Right now it's not an issue because we need to add depth to the starting pitching.
20:39
SPEAKER_00: The opportunities for Casey are limited.
20:42
SPEAKER_00: He'd have to be sensational to to make an impact on the roster.
20:46
SPEAKER_00: So it's enough about Casey I'm gonna miss him too because I like his makeup and I do like the fact I shouldn't say miss him, but I out of young baseball players, most of young top prospects that come up are just fucking you're such a little shit.
21:00
SPEAKER_00: Or like they have that the nothing about that kid was arrogant.
21:04
SPEAKER_00: He plays his ass off you know humble pie.
21:08
SPEAKER_00: There's all those great little intangible things I like about him.
21:12
SPEAKER_00: So that's the cost though.
21:15
SPEAKER_00: And we have four years of Edward Cabrera largely because of Owen Casey the other two minor leaguers just quickly should make a note here Christian Hernandez who's been a top was a top 100 prospect for the Cubs prior to 22.
21:27
SPEAKER_00: It's just a name you've probably heard thrown around a lot like that's always a name just get attached to like any trade like I'll throw in Christian Hernandez.
21:34
SPEAKER_00: He's he should be pretty good for 21 he was in high last year.
21:39
SPEAKER_00: He has a very good presence and he draws a lot of walks for a minor leaguer.
21:44
SPEAKER_00: He could turn out to be somebody who's pretty good average size infielder you know thanks for coming would much rather have Edward Cabrera at this point.
21:52
SPEAKER_00: And then the other one I that no one's going to remember this but I want to come back and say it like five or six years from now when this guy's a prospect.
21:59
SPEAKER_00: Edgardo de Leon is an 18 year old swaggy Dominican corner infield outfield prospect that the Cubs gave up that's the third name people won't give a shit I obviously don't give a shit.
22:09
SPEAKER_00: I'm literally only bringing this up because I'm pointing out this guy is a fucking ridiculous amount of swag for an 18 year old and it's the kind of thing where you're like oh nope you could be a super that's like superstar amounts of swag in presence.
22:28
SPEAKER_00: All right now this guy hasn't even played short season A ball but just from the very limited amount of video I can see from him playing um he just he just has it.
22:40
SPEAKER_00: You just love the walk you love the way this guy looks in a uniform so I'm just pointing this out that one could be out of the three of them that could be the one down the road we're like we traded that guy we traded we had that guy and traded that guy he's only played 80 games for the Cubs as a professional mostly in meaningless rookie situations but those are the three guys we gave up so you know and I do want to go back to the Udarvish thing quickly I I think it's just interesting like Owen Casey was the lead prospect that the Cubs got for Udarvish after COVID in 2020 Udarvish had a monster season in 2020 Cubs took a bath couldn't pay him 63 million dollars over the next three years just bent the bent the knee immediately if you recall I believe this is around the time was Theo resigning when Casper was going to the White Sox their writing was on the wall inside the Cubs that like there was some serious issues.
23:40
SPEAKER_00: I've alluded to with cash I've talked to about before big change through COVID with the way the Cubs were operating and part of that was trading you Darvish to the Padres even though we went out in 21 oh never mind we traded up in going into the 21 season and now what is it four or five years later we're taking the centerpiece of that trade and we're getting four years of Edward Cabrera so the contract on that over four years is probably going to cost us somewhere around$25 million I would guess$30 million.
24:19
SPEAKER_00: So it's like four years of Edward Cabrera for like say$30 million now or was it three years of you Darvish for$63 million back then.
24:29
SPEAKER_00: So take a bath a little bit kind of sucks but this is like one of the benefits of trading for the prospects even if Owen Casey you know has zero impact to the Chicago Cubs on the field the fact we get to flip him for somebody that is coveted.
24:46
SPEAKER_00: And again I would go back to the way his stuff profiles the closest comparable from the free agency class I would say would be a Dylan cease just from like the crazy swing and miss stuff.
25:00
SPEAKER_00: Again just assuming health wise like both are healthy you know Dylan Cease probably has a little bit better stuff right like a little bit you know certainly healthier he got 210 million dollars seven years to ten that's 30 a year I'm saying we're gonna get four years of Eddie for 30 million.
25:24
SPEAKER_00: Blue Jays get one Dylan C's I am not saying he's better than Dylan C's I'm just for purposes of context of understanding the value and why I think this is a great bargain from Jed or a great find or just great value if we go back and you want to trace it back to the UDAVI trade and then you want to compare it to free agent deals going on right now.
25:48
SPEAKER_00: Like pretty nice ace to have up the sleeve from Jed there.
25:52
SPEAKER_00: And then just quickly on Eddie here I've talked extensively about the monster stuff.
25:56
SPEAKER_00: One of the big problems with him he's got a huge walk rate so like he'll fit into the rotation just fine.
26:01
SPEAKER_00: He's gonna piss a lot of people off I think he's walked as many as six guys a season or per nine I should say six guys per nine which is just unbelievable it's as high as it gets that's as high as it gets is for a major league starting pitcher.
26:15
SPEAKER_00: Last year is around three he walked 48 guys in 137 innings but it's been four and a half five six four and a half four last year three now that's because he made some changes to his arsenal so how specific do we want to get into his stuff you know I'm excited to watch him pitch I'm excited for you guys to watch him pitch to just see how it's electric.
26:37
SPEAKER_00: It's absolutely electric you know there it's crazy when I say this for context he was a top 100 prospect for three seasons in a row that's like almost impossible for three full seasons.
26:52
SPEAKER_00: Because normally if you're in the top hundred you go into the big leagues and then they kind of you know like he was up into the big leagues back a little bit work on this walk rates too high injured a little bit shoulder elbow tendonitis and they were just like still a top hundred for three seasons in a row and also interesting is that he had pitched four full seasons of professional baseball before cracking a top 100 list.
27:21
SPEAKER_00: So scouts everybody got to look at this guy for four years it wasn't until after the 2019 season that people were like holy shit this guy could be really this guy could be really good COVID 2020 then comes out of COVID and here's where the injuries just kind of go bananas 21 bicep issue so he starts the 21 season I think banged up a little bit with the bicep you know and then not having played 2020 he sat out.
27:53
SPEAKER_00: I don't know if he went back to the Dominican or if he was in the minor league facility what matters is he was hurt to start the 21 season 22 elbow tendinitis so like is that connected to the bicep you know 23 shoulder issue so there's his first shoulder issue 24 more shoulder 25 blisters come around so he's got some issue with blisters and then some more elbow stuff tried to pitch through it you know wanted to be the guy ultimately shut him down end of the year.
28:29
SPEAKER_00: So we talk about elbow and shoulder this I said 25 minutes and I could probably do an hour on this right now.
28:38
SPEAKER_00: The important thing just quickly as we talk about injury stuff for Eddie Cabrera he he can make the ball go to both sides of the plate he can throw a ball that goes into ready's and he can throw balls that go away from rightys both effectively and he has above average break to what's called his arm side so that would be sinkers and changeups and he has well above average break to his glove side which would be curveball slider they also throw a sinker um two seamer he's got a four seam the issue when I see shoulder and if you watch some of the highlights heavy pronation when he's throwing his changeup it's max effort uh extensive intentional pronation which means like you're going out of your way to snap off the nastiest changeup you can now every now and then sure but if that's the if that's the predominant action that you have for your changeup it's gonna lead to shoulder issues it's gonna lead that's absolutely gonna fuck your shoulder up now he throws his changeup almost 30% of the time and so while it's not a you know and I see about to say it's not necessarily a max effort pitch but his changeup's 96 miles an hour 95.7 his fastball's 96.7 97 his changeup's hardly one mile an hour less the big swing and missing with the changeup is that it moves so much it runs away so much arm side horizontal break and there's some sync to it but it really it's like a almost like like a reverse slider so it's a really filthy pitch it comes with a cost that cost is if just severely messes with your shoulder we bring this up because Jamison Teon throws a kick change which is a changeup that moves towards your glove side and based on the fact that Cabrera throws such a great curveball great slider and can command and snap it with his wrist so hard to his glove side while still being able to have like the capacity to pronate his shoulder to rip off these insane arm side breaking pitches with the sinker and his changeup.
31:01
SPEAKER_00: The fact he can move the ball to both sides of the plate with such elite filthy action um is basically the reason why this guy's hurt all the time is because like you have the sports car you know the fucking the thing's got to go in the shop right like we're not talking about a camry here we're talking about like a high-end whatever it is I'm not a car guy I don't even know why I use a sports car in LG but my premise is like it's not an everyday use thing and so one of the challenges the Cubs are going to have is do they want to mold him into a guy who can throw 200 innings.
31:38
SPEAKER_00: There's severe changes that have to happen.
31:40
SPEAKER_00: The good thing is he's been in professional baseball for like 10 years.
31:44
SPEAKER_00: The Miami Marlins are downright negligent when it comes to managing their pitchers and so now he's in a situation where it's the complete opposite where we've gotten the most out of guys who throw 90-91 because they've got good heads on their shoulders and so we're gonna put him into that culture and we're gonna change some shit with him.
32:01
SPEAKER_00: And if it's how do you throw your changeup so be it.
32:04
SPEAKER_00: If it's how often you throw your change up he did make significant changes between his pitch selection 24 25 that's the last note I have on him like significant.
32:15
SPEAKER_00: So like throwing the four seam way less throwing the slider way more throwing the sinker way more and I think a lot of that is a reflection of not wanting to walk people putting too many guys on a base pitching to contact more so if he himself took those steps and was able to be intentional about changing his arsenal I'm very optimistic about what the Cubs can do with that attitude.
32:42
SPEAKER_00: If he was coming to the Cubs and hadn't changed shit and you just look at his pitch splits for the last three years and it was just the same thing 25% fastball, 30% changeup, 20% if it's the same thing year over year, now you're looking at a guy like a Ben Brown who just won't change.
32:56
SPEAKER_00: He's looking at a guy who's just doing the same thing every day.
32:58
SPEAKER_00: And so that that would make me nervous the fact that he did spend an entire year last year making significant changes and then saw positive results with his walk rate going down and through his career high innings there's some good stuff there that we can build off of optimistically now if we want to be negative huge injury risk huge injury risk and we're giving up a big time corner outfielder that like I said cannot grow any facial hair yet he will grow into a monster and if he can learn how to hit the inside part of the plate that we're gonna regret that especially if we don't have a right especially if we go into opening day with say Suzuki on the IL because he hurt his oblique during spring training and we don't have a right fielder and Tyler Austin's right fielder.
33:43
SPEAKER_00: Like that now we're and Edward Cabrera's there's so there's ways this goes south quickly.
33:49
SPEAKER_00: You know Edward Cabrera blisters I maybe that's a South Florida thing.
33:54
SPEAKER_00: You know maybe that's the way he's holding it on the seams like that can absolutely mess with your shit that's part of the two seam grip.
34:01
SPEAKER_00: So there's part of this there's a whole I shouldn't say part of this there's a whole list and litany of things underneath the surface uh that can impact the injuries I just trust that the Cubs are way further ahead than the Marlins when it comes to managing their staff you know even though I alluded to earlier the long-term injury risk that the Cubs has sustained within the starting pitching staff is kind of a kind of a sore subject kind of a black eye on the on the Cubs to be honest with you is how many times guys just hit the IL from our starting staff.
34:36
SPEAKER_00: And so the big risk obviously getting a guy who's just like consistently on the IL uh you know don't love it right same time that's why this guy's getting paid 3.75 million because he spent on the IL a bunch so it's good with the bad you know from the optimistic side of things I love it I just cannot say enough good things about this the only the only picture I would have liked to see ahead of this from the trade class uh you know I was Joe Ryan is just what more polish put together way less health concerns um you know I I you maybe you can make an argue for Pablo but but overall I just like again I have to go back to the contract 3.75 million I go back to the stuff I go back to what the Cubs bring to the table our starting pitching depth as is so it's not like we need multiple guys like we actually probably could have been okay for the first two months of the season with the starting pitching staff we have and we did just fine last year I shouldn't say just fine we we battled through last year but like you know uh Kate Horton really stepped forward.
35:51
SPEAKER_00: I think it's the easiest way to put it you know and just kind of pick the staff up last year.
35:55
SPEAKER_00: So like going into this year we we probably could have survived but like if this goes as as well or you know above average if he's healthy etc then like I honestly think the sky's the limit for the starting pitching staff with Justin Steele coming back Kate Horton's going to be you know only better than he was last year Jameson Teon's so solid he'll be pitching out of the five spot he'll be doing whatever we ask him to do with just such an open mind Shodi Imanaga in the contract year where he's got a chip on his shoulder prove it to the Cubs fuck you for not picking up my you know my my three year extension you guys put me in this situation so now I'm gonna go out and pitch my balls off.
36:38
SPEAKER_00: You know that's all good stuff.
36:40
SPEAKER_00: Like in the meantime Matt Boyd was an all-star last year like it just imagine if he just recreated if he has a similar season of what he did last year you know and then you have Colin Ray with you know a lunch pail and a pair of overalls going to work every day hammer hanging out of the backside just whatever you need fixed he's here to do it for you.
36:59
SPEAKER_00: Now is it going to be great?
37:00
SPEAKER_00: No but he's on staff he's on site he's here to help that's Colin Ray.
37:04
SPEAKER_00: So the whole collective of this rotation coming together when you add in the dynamic elite power monster stuff that Eddie Cabrera brings to the table you know I think I think it's very easy to be super bullish and optimistic about the starting pitching staff and it fits into everything we've talked about with Jed's focus on the run prevention.
37:25
SPEAKER_00: This plays into the fact that we have one of the best defenses if not the best defense in Major League Baseball we have an established veteran bullpen you know guys that already have role clarity before the season's even started.
37:37
SPEAKER_00: And so just coming in with that extra advantage of having this power ready uh could really turn the tide for the collective run prevention where at the end of the season you're looking back and saying not just the Cubs were one of the best but like a runaway clear number one in the National League keeping runs off the board.
37:56
SPEAKER_00: That's how I feel about the Edward Cabrera trade.
37:58
SPEAKER_00: So long Owen Casey I wish you nothing but the best I think Edgardo de Leon could haunt my dreams and I got nothing but respect for Christian Hernandez as a ball player.
38:09
SPEAKER_00: But you know as far as I'm concerned we have to beat the Milwaukee Brewers and win the NL Central that's the only thing that matters and Edward Cabrera moves us much much further along than what Casey did in that regard.
38:21
SPEAKER_00: And so we'll be back next Monday to break down what is likely going to be a Chicago Bears beating of the Green Bay Packers.
38:29
SPEAKER_00: We should be in a fantastic mood and I'm glad I was able to sit down here just solo rip a bunch of the fucking nuanced nitty gritty and again with the F-words I think the solo shows it's a crutch once I get going it's like a runaway train I got to keep the thing on the tracks you know so sometimes F-words is like a little bit of grease there.
38:48
SPEAKER_00: I don't like using it but like you know sometimes you have to so I apologize I'm being serious if that offends some of the more sensitive listeners more important thing is that we're just trying to have good subsidive Cubs conversations so that when the season comes around we're prepared you know the storylines are baked you're winning your arguments with your friends you know you you're establishing dominance within the group chat uh when it comes to offseason expectations or preseason I should say etc for more subscribe to the show obviously leave a review if you enjoy it Mahoney and I will be back Monday go Bears fuck the Packers uh and again shout out Jed really like this move uh almost as much as I like you guys the maniacs thanks again for tuning in I love you guys go cup of