Latest / Beliefs, Ballots, And BullDawgs / CFB WEEK 4 RECAP!!
Transcript
- Greg: What's up everybody and welcome to the week four college football recap for whiskey and winners. Week four is in the books, and ⁓ before we start talking about anything else, I think we need to address a growing problem here on Whiskey and Winners. We're actually winning, like consistently winning, and frankly, we should all be a little uncomfortable with this. This this show was built on whiskey, questionable judgment, and three grown men confidently giving you financial advice that nobody should be following. Now, hell, we're actually cashing tickets on the regular. This is getting dangerously close to credible, and people might start taking us seriously here. And if that happens, well, I'm gonna have to start doing real research and none of us won't that, but man, what a weekend, Brian. Georgia beat Oklahoma forty one to thirteen. Oklahoma scored thirteen points. The Sooners have officially been welcomed to the SEC. Here's your gift basket. There's your schedule. Your offense is over there in the lost and found. Go get it. Florida beat Ole Miss, number four Ole Miss, 52 to 28. Somewhere around there in the fourth quarter, I bet you old Lane Kiffin was looking at a scoreboard going, well, hey, LSU might not be so bad. Florida didn't upset Ole Miss. Florida evicted Ole Miss for the top twenty or top five, and we'll see you later. The Wisconsin Badgers walked into Happy Valley as a double digit underdog and walked away with a victory in. Well, nothing says happy valley, like a hundred thousand fans walking back to their seats wearing white and wondering why did I pay three hundred dollars to park for this shit? Michigan was favored over Iowa, and Iowa won twenty to nineteen. We had some money on that one as an interesting little thing, but somehow an Iowa football game reached almost forty points, and I'm not quite ready to say offensive football has arrived in Iowa, what the authorities have been notified and things are getting suspicious. Texas survived Knoxville 20 to 17. A three point game, Nealand Stadium, a hundred and thousand toothless rednecks wearing orange, arch Manning trying to keep the beautiful Texas Longhorns number one. I mean, what other environment would any parent want to put their twenty two year old son into, Brian? Perfect, right? LSU beats AM thirty five to six. AM scores six points, Brian. AM has spent approximately the GDP of most small European companies and they've got six points. That is quite an expensive kicking exhibition going on in Aggie Land. Oregon went into Southern Cal and ⁓ beat them 4127. Southern Cal gives up 40 plus points, but you know Lincoln Riley go, hey, do y'all see the offense though? ⁓ and we'll talk about that hit too. ⁓ that was nasty. Mississippi State beat Missouri. At what point are we gonna start paying attention to those fake bulldogs down in Starkville? Brian: Yeah. Greg: Wake Forest went into Louisville and handling them upset. Wisconsin beats Penn State. Florida beats Ole Miss. We had eight ranked teams lose this weekend. Just like a normal college football Saturday. It's just total chaos and confusion everywhere. But over here at Whiskey and Winners, your boys are cashing tickets. The models are working. The boys are seeing the board well. We're starting to kind of find and isolate our spots, and that scares the absolute hell out of me because we know what comes next. Confidence. Confidence is where it starts, Brian. And then you start increasing that unit size. And then we're betting on a Tuesday night Mac game because we have identified some value. We know it's coming. And then we're standing in the kitchen at eleven thirty at night going, How do you not cover the wheel route Eastern Michigan? What are you doing? So as we're heating up and as things have been going well, look, stay humbled, stay disciplined. We're going to keep trusting the process. Keep drinking responsibly for those of you that are doing it. Keep gambling responsibly if you're listening to this show at all. But hey, we're winning. So Brian, keep pouring the whiskey. Let's look at the board and hey, somebody stop us before we start thinking we're professionals. Whiskey and winners week four recap is right here. Bee Nobles, that was a pretty solid weekend for the whole crew. Tell us about it. Brian: Yeah, sure. Yeah, it was good. ⁓ you went six and four on your ten games. ⁓ I mean, you were right there on the Iowa, Michigan, took that last second touchdown, took it got me the win and then took the L. We almost got the middle. We was trying to get to thirty eight and it went to thirty nine. So I think the projected score I had put out there, I thought it would be twenty to nineteen. I mean ⁓ twenty one to twenty and it ended up twenty to nineteen. So we were pretty pretty good read on that. ⁓ I went eight and three overall for the week. Greg: Mm-hmm. Pretty good read. Brian: Losses I took was the ⁓ Indiana Northwestern game. I'm still shocked about that one. I mean, twenty-two points going into the fourth quarter and then they gave up thirty in the fourth quarter. So right there on that. Mississippi was some to the team total for the first half at sixteen and a half. I would have bet that again. I mean, they were inside the five yard line at the going into the half, ran out of some time management issues, ran out of time. They should have easily went over that as well. And then the Tennessee plus one and a half for the first quarter. I was just going after Josh Heifel's script and he got down there and kicked a field goal. But ⁓ so and then David gotta give him his ⁓ props. He went ⁓ seven and one this week. So he did a four and one last week and followed up with seven and one this week. So he's sitting at eleven and two at ⁓ eighty four or a little bit right at eighty five percent. So that's ⁓ Pretty I can't I don't know if I can call that beginner's luck anymore. Greg: ⁓ eighty f eighty five percent is pretty strong a and B Nobles, you know somewhere out there our former third wheel has gotta be sitting there going, Holy shit, they came in and replaced me with a ringer. Brian: He was he's doing it. So hopefully he keeps it up 'cause ⁓ as a group right now we're sitting at ⁓ at sixty two percent even. So sixty two percent as a group. So doing pretty good. Greg: Sa say say that again, Brian. All right. So you you sent me the numbers earlier, and and folks, if you're listening to this, if you hear my voice, listen to these words that are about to come out of my mouth. I am the low man on the totem pole of the three of us, and I have been profitable for the season to date. If you are not paying attention to this show, I don't know how else to help you. We're doing the work, we're giving you the reads. And again, as he said, sixty-two percent is pretty freaking strong in this game. So if you're trying to put some money out there and you're trying to get a good return on your investment, I'm telling you, pay attention. We week five's coming. What'd you what'd you learn this weekend, Brian? Was there any anything you kind of picked up on or that you kind of think we can roll into the future, future place? Brian: I learned that ⁓ that Florida State's going the opposite direction compared to our rivals 'cause I mean, Miami and we knew what they had, but my God, Florida looks good. ⁓ that Greg: They they do look good, but brother, that old miss defense is a sieve. That is ⁓ that is not a I I I'm a Pete Golding fan. I th I think Pete Golding knows ball, but brother, they are out of position. I don't know if they can't tackle or just don't want to tackle. ⁓ but we had that game on kind of the side screen and I almost look again, I I will eat my crow. I I came on this show and said, look, you give me Trinidad Chamblers plus points, I will never not take it. ⁓ well I'm not sure Ole Miss ever had the ball, because every time I looked, all I saw was Florida players just weaving in and out of Ole Miss players that that weren't really even that close to ⁓ that is that is not a good sign for for that Old Miss team rolling forward. ⁓ but on the on the positive, Brian, I'm trying to take my oldest daughter to the dogs game in Oxford later, and those tickets might have just got a little less less costly. Brian: Yeah, for sure. I mean, ⁓ yeah, I mean you took a loss on that, but ⁓ we put good information out there about, you know, take Trinidad Chambers if you feel good about it, but we did put out there to be weary of how the line was moving. So, you know, the numbers usually don't lie and little little ⁓ tid bit that I'm gonna be looking at this week is ⁓ you may see that same kind of action for Florida this week. Greg: Yeah, and that was that's another one of those. And again, I I I'll say it even in a game that wasn't close and truly wasn't even competitive. I watched a good portion of that game. I still I'm not disappointed with the read. I think knowing what I knew going into that, if you give me that situation, I'd be inclined to take Ole Miss plus the three and a half again. ⁓ but we've said it on here repeatedly, and you and I have these conversations all the time. A lot of what we do is very number specific, almost in some cases more so than team specific. ⁓ I like I said, there's a lot of times where you can just read the board and and you and I both said, hanging that three and a half almost seemed like they were begging you to take Ole Miss. And I said if it's a sucker bet, I'll just eat that one and fall for it 'cause I I wouldn't I wasn't going to go the other way. But no, sometimes you you you live and you learn. I you know, that was that was one of my takeaways. And ⁓ I I just get to keep downgrading Georgia Tech and man as a dog fan, that's always fun. If you can't beat Stanford, you are not a good football team. Brian: Yeah, that was That was that was yeah. I can't say nothing. We went to Stanford and lost to him last year too, so ⁓ one thing I'll say too, Comario Taylor, he was just as advertised. He looked good. And then I know we put out there about them trying to set the world record, so I got that if anybody is ⁓ interested, they set the world record for cowbells in the game with forty one thousand eight hundred and nineteen cowbells rang at the same time. Greg: Ha ha. Alright, well Brian Nobles, you can officially tagline the fact that you have been infected by David Smith, 'cause the fact that you went through and followed through on that bullshit shows that David has gotten to you. Brian: Yeah. Yeah. It was good. I'm ⁓ look Greg: But let's let's let's let's give David some love, man. While while we're doing it, you you kind of glossed over and apparently we hurt his feelings by not showing him enough shine after his four and one weekends. And this weekend comes out and says, Here's a seven and one. How y'all like that? ⁓ look, I I will say this, and and I I don't think David will have any problem with me being honest and transparent with the listeners. David does not do this. David is not a gambler by nature, David has not spent a lot of time capping. But having said that, eleven and two is eleven and two. Anyway, you slice it. ⁓ and again, he I think he feeds off a bust, but no, shout David, brother, we we can't wait to see what you come up with. And like I I joked about in the group text, I'm I'm gonna just start tailoring your place from now on until you see you turn around and go the other direction. So shout out to D. Smitty, brother. Dad Daddy D coming in with a seven and one weekend is pretty darn strong. I don't care how you slice it. Brian: ⁓ yeah, ⁓ yeah. Looking looking forward to next week. One thing I picked up I'm looking forward to is ⁓ you get to see Camario Taylor and Keelon Russell against each other. That's gonna be a be a good game. ⁓ Greg: I I already caught a sneak peek of that number hanging right around a field goal and man, that it like my gut reaction is it just don't feel like enough points, but that's one of those where it almost seems like they're begging you to take Alabama. Brian: ⁓ yeah. ⁓ one Greg: And Starkville at n ⁓ Starkville ain't no fun place to go. Brian: Yeah. One thing I was gonna put out there to you now that we're a quarter of the way through the season, what who you think you're best if you had to rank a top four so far, what are you thinking? Greg: Well, I I will I try to be as humble as I can, but I will tell you that my my old man and I were having some conversations Saturday afternoon to go, look, I don't care who they want to keep putting in front of us, I don't care if nobody else wants to see it or admit it, if you want to tell me there's a team out there that's better than my Georgia Bulldogs right now, then they gonna have to prove it to me, brother. 'Cause I look I know we hadn't exactly played a murderer's row, ⁓ but to this point that it's it's been pretty impressive. ⁓ man, I I still I'm not sold on Florida yet. I I gotta say my top four and and this would be in no particular order. ⁓ I gotta go probably Georgia, Ohio State, probably Notre Dangerous 'cause know they're gonna stay up there 'cause nobody's gonna knock ⁓ out. And then that fourth team, I mean, I guess I'll go give me the defending champions until somebody beats them. Indiana's still gonna be tough to beat with, but I'd say Georgia, Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Indiana would be some semblance of that would be my top four, probably. What about you? Brian: Yeah. And I got ⁓ yeah, I'm close to you. I got ⁓ Georgia, Miami, Notre Dame and Texas would be my top four. So I mean Miami's look tough. But they that Greg: No, they they haven't and and your your early Heisme call on Dairy and Minsa looks like it ⁓ it's got some value in and the Trinidad Champions not exactly having a great night in Gainesville could only help that ticket. Brian: ⁓ yeah, yeah. And then ⁓ what about Montana State winning the ⁓ winning another night with four all Americans out of the game and they still won it? Greg: That's just that's just a well run program, Brian. Just next man up attitude, right? Kinda kinda like when we fired Chad. Just next man up, David steps in and goes eleven and two. Brian: I lo I love watching them games. I stayed up till two o'clock in the morning watching them last night 'cause ⁓ I mean that's what college football used to be, you know, where it was they cared. It wasn't all about the about the dollar. They're out there, you know, playing and I mean it was it's ⁓ it's it's fun. Greg: Ha ha ha. ⁓ Yeah, and there's still there's still some elements. You can you can catch a little bit of that here and there. What ⁓ what are the other season long picks are we have you looked back and see how we're doing? Are any of those tracking to be pretty good, pretty good value so far? Brian: Well, let's go let's go through ⁓ and see ⁓ if you would if you how you feel about it ⁓ now. So I'll start with your over unders. You got ⁓ Oklahoma seven and a half. Greg: All right. They haven't showed much, but I'm I still think they'll get there. They'll find a way. Brian: Add Think it's about time. They gotta figure a way to ⁓ bench Matea or something. He just ain't it. I can't imagine the backup can't at least complete a pass. Greg: But it yeah. It it looked like he may be still having some issues with that thumb that he was dealing with all last year, 'cause he had several times where he just just ball security was a big time problem for him against us. Yeah, I I don't know. That one's not looking good, but ⁓ I I mean there again, going into the season with with what I thought they would be and and I I just I thought Material would be better than he has been. ⁓ they they've got a tough schedule, so it it's it's hard to see it getting there, but I I ain't gonna throw it away yet. Brian: ⁓ yeah. And I'll go through your other four real quick and you can hit on them if you want to. You got South Carolina over six and a half, North Carolina under four and a half, ⁓ Georgia Southern over four and a half, and then BYU over eight and a half. Greg: I'd have to go back I don't even know what all those teams records are right now off the top of my head if I'm being totally honest. Brian: I think BYU's looking pretty good and then ⁓ I think you probably get that and then North Carolina. I mean they that win on TCU might have hurt that one, but South Yeah, South Carolina's under six and a half is probably a good one. And then as far as your champions, Louisville, you had ACC. Obviously these were based on, you know, the return yeah, but they took a b a big loss this weekend. BYU looks good. Oregon's still fine 'cause Greg: Yeah, that was definitely one I know I was counting against. Yeah. Trying to get value, yeah. Brian: They haven't lost a conference game yet and then Georgia. So you'd still good with that. And then CJ Carr for the Heisman. Greg: Yeah, I mean it's it's gonna be tough for him, like I said, ⁓ with with Trinidad and Darien Mensah having the years they've had, it it's it's gonna be hard. And I I think obviously with i I I I could still make the case almost that because of the weakness we saw in Ole Miss Saturday night, that might actually help Trinidad win the ham w win the highsman because he is gonna have to put up some numbers to to have that team be competitive all year long. Brian: ⁓ yeah. Then mine I got ⁓ Miami over ten and a half, Kansas State over seven and a half, UNLB over seven and a half, Michigan under eight and a half, Florida State under six and a half. I love the Florida State under six and a half. I don't see how that doesn't happen. Michigan, I think, doesn't get to nine wins. ⁓ Kansas State, that over right there, I may not hit that. They they've had some some bad injury luck on their offensive line. And then the Miami over ten and a half. I like it. ⁓ as far as other stuff. Greg: Right, we did we do ⁓ and we do have to ⁓ we do have to make note of the fact that our our first fan engagement and fan interaction game that we were asked to break down, we we were spot on. We absolutely nailed that that read. Like I said, neither one of us said we were getting down on it, but we both said we would we would eat up that bandy plus nine and a half if we had to play it. I flat out said if it gets to ten, I would play it. ⁓ so hopefully whoever was requested that ⁓ I it was one of your buddies. I hope he was leaning Bandy Plus to points and I hope we talked him into it. Brian: ⁓ yeah, he took he took it. He actually ⁓ bed it up to the ten and a half, like we told him to and hit it. And then ⁓ that was one of the ones David hit. He was out on on Bandy at nine and a half, so he put it out there. Greg: Beautiful. Brian: So hopefully we get some more ⁓ people asking us and we can break some ⁓ games down. There's some good ones coming on this weekend. You know, of course we're gonna talk about the big games and then we'll have our other stuff. But, you know, we encourage anybody that wants us to break down I don't care what it is, I mean I'll t I'll try to do my best to break down any game they ask me about. Greg: Yeah. I mean it it's nothing for me to run it through my model a few times and then just kind of take a look at you know, it it's easy to cap a game kind of surface level in fifteen or twenty minutes if you're being honest. Like it's it's hard when you start lining up a whole board of games and trying to figure out what you wanna play. But if you're just gonna sit me down and go, Okay, just look at this game and tell me which side you would take, I don't have any problem doing that at all. Brian: Mm mm mm. When we finally hit a parlay. Greg: Hey, we were due, brother. It was it's about time. ⁓ I thought that was gonna be a whole lot easier. I figured we'd have some success with that, but man, it it has been a it it's been a really good year so far, if I'm being honest, Brian. I I will admit that I I found myself Saturday and I don't know if they've just done a little bit better job this year kind of spacing out the games to where like I I feel like we've had several Saturdays now in a row where just from from noon to tonight you got good football on at least somewhere. ⁓ and I have I have thoroughly enjoyed it. ⁓ obviously as a as a Georgia fan, I'm probably enjoying it little more than you are as a as a Noel fan. But ⁓ I just meant ⁓ overall I feel like, you know, for for all of the negative energy that we and even we kinda heap onto the college football world because of the transfers and the NIL, man, I'm just telling you it it it's still when it's a when it's a Saturday in the fall and this past Saturday it was about sixty four degrees when I got up in the morning. Man, there's still not a whole lot for me that can compete with a college football Saturday. Brian: All right, yeah. What'd you what'd you think about what Dan Lannon said after the at the end of his press conference? Greg: I tell you it's ⁓ that that reminded me that he I know what coaching tree he came from with comments like that. But you you could hear Nick Saban and Kirby Smart all up in that sort of thing. That that's how you motivate people. Brian: Yeah, and for our listeners that don't know, he said, ⁓ the Dan Lannon after the US C game said, ⁓ we're three and ⁓ against this this team. So if you're from this area and you want to win football games, you probably need to come to Oregon. If you're more interested in going to a Chris Brown concert, then go to this school. Greg: Man, that was did you see the stadium? Like I USC can hardly even get anybody it it is just so hard to even rationalize like what that proud program was just 20 years ago. And now even with Lincoln Riley, all kind of recruiting budgets, like they just can't figure it out out there. And I'm not gonna I'm not gonna make this into a common sense superheroes or a political show, but I'm telling you there's something too, that California West Coast stuff, it just nothing out there works, Brian. Brian: ⁓ yeah. He ⁓ he said that too, you know, he said ⁓ they hadn't sold games out, you know, in the last two or three games when he's been watching ⁓ on film. He said and then it took Oregon coming and he said they sold the stadium out, so but Greg: All right, B well you you got anything else you wanna throw out there to wrap up week four before we ⁓ start teasing into week five? Brian: Nah, I mean, ⁓ that that hit that we was gonna talk about in that game, I mean, I can see both directions of it. Some people say he didn't slide early enough, some people said that it was dirty. To me it looked dirty. But I wasn't in in front of the field I wasn't the one out there trying to make the tackle and trying to make a judgment call on it, but I what I didn't like is how he acted after the hit. And he was out there dancing around and and all that kind of stuff, celebrating it. So Greg: Yeah, I you know, that was that was pretty gruesome. you know, it's it's so hard on something like that in a bang bang situation to really determine intent. Like a lot of times they look a lot worse than they are. ⁓ and I you know, I have always made the case, like you gotta really I mean s you know, that's probably somebody weighs two hundred and thirty something pounds running full speed. Like it's not easy to just stop your momentum, even when you see a guy go down. But no, it was that was vicious. But then yeah, his his mannerisms and a and a the way he was behaving after it was terrible. And I wanted to talk about just I I don't know if you saw the the Texas player celebrated with a mimic just whipping his, you know, what out and pissing on the ground. And Brian, and I don't know why, for whatever reason, just in that moment, that hit me to go, we have a problem in our society because like that is that's that is an action that you cannot you cannot quantify that as anything other than intentionally disrespectful. That's not playful, that's not smack talking, that's not like that is intentional disrespect. And I started like we are just as a world, and I'm sorry to take this off the rails, ⁓ people are just too damn comfortable intentionally being disrespectful to other people. Like that's not in any way celebrating a good play. That is just a disrespectful action any way you look at it. And I wish they'd have taken that kid out for the rest of the game, but he had a hell of a game. Yeah. Yeah, he had a hell of a game. Yeah. Brian: ⁓ yeah, yeah. Yeah, he had he had five sacks and it's overshadowed by that. Greg: But I mean, I just that that just was such a like yeah, I I would almost make the argument to me, I was more put off by that than I even was the hit, because at least the hit was kind of in a live action. Like I can I can almost justify go, hey, look, some of you just get caught up in the moment and you like you're going full speed thinking I'm about to lay this guy out and then he slides and you're kinda like just but man, that like completely after the play to just do something like I don't know, man, I it just rubbed me completely the wrong way. Brian: ⁓ yeah, I agree with ya. I was like when we saw him do that, I said, You gotta be kidding me But nay Greg: Yeah. All right, B. Well we'll ⁓ we'll we'll start doing some work. We'll start ⁓ grinding the gears and running the models and ⁓ I'm gonna start trying to pick David's brain and figure out what he's looking at so maybe I can catch on to some of his hot streak. 'Cause I don't know, if you just now join us, our our our amateur on the show is now eleven and two for his ⁓ his picks put out there. So if you're not listening, you oughta because we are absolutely killing it at this point. ⁓ the The analytics have been sound. I like you and I've come on here pretty much every recap go, man. I feel like we're seeing the board well. Even the games we're losing. You know, like you mentioned the the Iowa Michigan game. You had the over, I had the under, and it was right on the number. So we were we were both spot on with how that game played out. ⁓ I like I said I f I feel good, man. I'm excited. I'm ready to ready to start looking into week five. So if anybody out there has a game that you don't think might make that top, you know, six or eight rundown that we're gonna do. If you want us to take a look at one for you to kind of quantify a lean or match up something you want to look at, just let us know. We'll ⁓ we'll be happy to do it. And ⁓ and I promise you it won't just be me and B Nobles. When we roll out here Wednesday night, we'll have the star of the show with us, the the superstar that hitting eighty plus percent. And I'm gonna tell you, hey, it his eighty percent's impressive, but that's almost not even as like for the three of us to be sixty plus together is pretty strong ⁓ going into what's been kind of a weird year so far. But Brian: ⁓ yeah, for sure. Greg: Tell the people anything you wanna say goodbye and I'll ⁓ I'll sign us off. B what else you wanna leave ⁓ with? Brian: ⁓ I mean we're getting ready for week five. I've already been doing some research. I I mean hadn't done the numbers yet, but you know, trying to get some backstories on it. I'll give you three games I know we're gonna talk about. I hadn't completely nailed it down. Obviously we got Alabama and Mississippi State, Ohio State at Iowa, and Florida and Missouri. But there's a loaded slate, so there'll be a few more we're gonna hit on. Greg: Yeah, I can't wait, man. We're looking forward to it. Guys, we'll ⁓ we'll check in with you guys Wednesday night. We'll be releasing the week five episode. Till then, hit us up on our socials, share this, like this, do all the things. ⁓ and till then, keep pouring ⁓ pouring bourbon and cashing tickets. God bless. Brian: There you go.