Latest / AG Bull / Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | 2nd Round of SDRP Payments Approved

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Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | 2nd Round of SDRP Payments Approved · AG Bull

0:09
SPEAKER_01: Happy Friday, everyone.
0:10
SPEAKER_01: Welcome back to the AgBoat Podcast.
0:13
SPEAKER_01: What a week, what a week.
0:14
SPEAKER_01: Well, we still got Iran going on.
0:17
SPEAKER_01: And for all those of you who thought the world was ending, the Nasdaq 100 hit all-time highs today.
0:24
SPEAKER_01: Go figure.
0:24
SPEAKER_01: And we still have elevated oil prices.
0:27
SPEAKER_01: So, what's it all mean?
0:28
SPEAKER_01: When it comes to agriculture, farmers and ranchers are ranchers are ranching every day.
0:32
SPEAKER_01: Farmers are getting ready to plant a crop.
0:34
SPEAKER_01: Some people are talking about the drought.
0:36
SPEAKER_01: Some people are talking about planting delays.
0:39
SPEAKER_01: It's hard to ruin a crop in April, but they're sure trying.
0:42
SPEAKER_01: With that, we have an action, action pack show.
0:45
SPEAKER_01: Jim sent his notes.
0:46
SPEAKER_01: I want to thank the people at Tigma.
0:50
SPEAKER_01: I had opportunity to speak with them in Nashville.
0:52
SPEAKER_01: I met some really, really fine folks from all types of elevator systems, all types of people who use the products you all grow.
1:00
SPEAKER_01: And of course, uh the rail, the companies of the rail, and rail's changing in America a lot.
1:06
SPEAKER_01: It'd be fun, Jim, sometime to have some of those rail folks on.
1:09
SPEAKER_01: So with that, thank you for having me.
1:11
SPEAKER_01: And with that, let's get in the show.
1:55
SPEAKER_01: Low energy.
1:56
SPEAKER_01: You better be bringing the heat.
2:03
SPEAKER_00: This coming Saturday, I go to Dallas Fort Worth area for a crop insurance agents meeting, SEPA, which is a very good meeting.
2:11
SPEAKER_00: I know so many crop insurance agents, so I can't wait to see them again.
2:16
SPEAKER_00: But to put perspective on the war with Iran, remember last week we were rather upbeat, and then all of a sudden the talks didn't happen.
2:25
SPEAKER_00: That tells you in the fog of war how fast things can change.
2:29
SPEAKER_00: Now, the latest is that they could talk again tomorrow.
2:34
SPEAKER_00: So we'll see.
2:35
SPEAKER_00: Not with JD Vance, but Trump is sending over to people.
2:39
SPEAKER_00: So we're going to see if there's progress or not again.
2:42
SPEAKER_00: But I've learned with the war with Iran as a lot of traders, they're going to wait to see proof now.
2:48
SPEAKER_00: We're tired of this each side jaw boning.
2:51
SPEAKER_00: You hear multiple messages from Iran, and you actually hear multiple messages sometimes from President Trump, who contradicts himself sometimes.
3:00
SPEAKER_00: So I thought I'm just going to wait until it stabilizes.
3:04
SPEAKER_00: I'm not going to chase everything.
3:06
SPEAKER_01: Caught me off guard is they're like, there's still landmines out there in the water.
3:10
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and Trump is given the directive that if uh the our military sees them laying new ones to fire on them.
3:18
SPEAKER_01: Oh boy.
3:18
SPEAKER_01: So they got the real deal.
3:20
SPEAKER_01: Let's get in the markets, Jim.
3:21
SPEAKER_00: Sure.
3:22
SPEAKER_00: Look on the right-hand side, that's the weekly change.
3:25
SPEAKER_00: And look at corns, uh, it's up six cents for the week.
3:29
SPEAKER_00: The closing price on the July, just a little over 463.
3:33
SPEAKER_00: Soybeans had a down week, a little over four cents, but look at meal, down 810.
3:38
SPEAKER_00: They've added that dramatic rally.
3:40
SPEAKER_00: Remember, Tommy, over the last you know, uh few weeks, oil continues to be robust for soybean reasons.
3:48
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, soybean soybean oil.
3:50
SPEAKER_00: And look at wheat.
3:52
SPEAKER_00: We are in yeah, look at wheat.
3:54
SPEAKER_00: Soybean oil.
3:55
SPEAKER_00: That's a train train going on, literally, because it's the weather.
4:00
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
4:00
SPEAKER_00: Some crop tour information got into the market, but you had the last month or so not dry, but very dry conditions in the heart of the uh hard red winter wheat belt.
4:13
SPEAKER_00: So, and the condition ratings are going down.
4:16
SPEAKER_00: And what did I hear today, this morning?
4:18
SPEAKER_00: 70% of the wheat area is in drought uh category.
4:22
SPEAKER_00: And I know it's early.
4:24
SPEAKER_00: We always say dust it in, sweep the bins, but uh we're gonna see.
4:28
SPEAKER_00: Cotton had a down week, but they've had a dramatic rally here on a technical and other reasons, and cattle did their thing, but we actually were lower for the week.
4:39
SPEAKER_00: We'll have a little bit on cattle in a minute.
4:41
SPEAKER_00: Hogs had a little bit of an uptick, but not that great.
4:45
SPEAKER_00: That's for the week.
4:46
SPEAKER_00: Now, the the uh dollar I think held relatively firm, didn't it, Tommy?
4:51
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's been moving around.
4:53
SPEAKER_01: But at the end, at the end, if you look at those quotes, it's not like it was crazy.
4:57
SPEAKER_01: But in during the week, we have dramatic upswoops, dramatic downswoop headlines.
5:03
SPEAKER_01: Crude oil is flying around five to six dollars on an average day.
5:07
SPEAKER_01: And but yet I I didn't look and see where crude oil was on the week.
5:11
SPEAKER_01: That's got to be higher because we sold off so hard uh the following Friday, remember?
5:16
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Brent was up 18.
5:18
SPEAKER_00: And it looks like the U WTI was up seven almost 17 and a half percent.
5:23
SPEAKER_00: That's a pretty big run up there.
5:26
SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
5:26
SPEAKER_01: Want to get in the show?
5:28
SPEAKER_00: Sure, let's go.
5:29
SPEAKER_00: We had the data users meeting in Kansas City on the 22nd, and I'll give USDA officials and NAS especially high marks because they they they did some mayo coupas.
5:42
SPEAKER_00: They're saying, hey, look, we're here to improve.
5:44
SPEAKER_00: They announced significant expanded farmer surveys, the numbers hopefully will address that falling response rate.
5:51
SPEAKER_00: Remember, it was under 40 percent for the last acreage report, and they want to improve the accuracy.
5:58
SPEAKER_00: And you'll recall that uh Stephen Vaden told us about a month ago, I guess at least, they they want to move to a more digital approach where farmers get their surveys online so we don't have to wait on stale mail to deliver it to the farmer and for the farmer to deliver it back to NAS.
6:16
SPEAKER_00: So I think that'll improve the number and the reliability eventually, at least I hope so.
6:22
SPEAKER_00: There's a big push to restore confidence in USGA reports.
6:27
SPEAKER_00: NAS has heard all the negatives, and they want to have greater transparency.
6:35
SPEAKER_00: And a number of users at that meeting said they they want NAS to remain as the as the template for for other surveys, they want to have the same data sets so they can compare the information, but they want USDA to check out new sources of how to do surveys, and NAS basically agreed with that.
6:56
SPEAKER_00: So it was all into rebuild the trust in ag statistics, and you need the trust there, and especially since they noted they acknowledge the declining confidence and the focus now on their data systems.
7:10
SPEAKER_00: Uh interesting subject came up that the chicken and egg revisions, they have been large, and NAS basically said it was due to late reporting from some rather large operators.
7:23
SPEAKER_00: So it wasn't the bird flu wasn't the primary cause of that data change for chicken and eggs, Tommy.
7:31
SPEAKER_00: And then there were after the announcement, Planetur that that that they're working closely with USDA on that one farmer, one file initiative.
7:40
SPEAKER_00: And frankly, I think that's a good thing because private industry now is coming in as another ingredient to improve USDA from a record keeping uh stance, and also even in the survey stuff.
7:54
SPEAKER_00: So I I would watch that in the months and years ahead.
7:58
SPEAKER_00: I think that's a plus.
7:59
SPEAKER_00: Bottom line, that users conference said they're aiming to modernize USDA and it needed to be, and they want to streamline program delivery because farmers are too swamped with too big of surveys.
8:13
SPEAKER_00: They want to streamline them, making them in English, you know, more.
8:18
SPEAKER_00: And so I think it was a pretty good, useful user conference, Tommy.
8:22
SPEAKER_01: Very good.
8:23
SPEAKER_01: Next we have breaking news, but you know where you and I and the whole AgBull team get our breaking news?
8:27
SPEAKER_01: We get it from Trade the News.
8:30
SPEAKER_01: I talked to Joe over at Trade the News today, and he said folks are watching our show and they're going over to Trade the News for a free trial.
8:37
SPEAKER_01: So if you want to be on top of what's going on, if you're an active trader, investor, just someone who likes to get educated, they have a real nice package out there that it's an audio package.
8:47
SPEAKER_01: It's just incredible.
8:49
SPEAKER_01: Jim and I have it on, and the whole team, Jed, Joe, and uh we're listening to it all day.
8:53
SPEAKER_01: Thank you, Trade the News, for sponsoring today's show.
8:56
SPEAKER_00: You remember and let me tell you one thing that I like the best about them.
9:00
SPEAKER_00: They send out emails of their summaries and things, they are very tight in their summaries, and that's what I love.
9:07
SPEAKER_00: They know that time is valuable, and I really like their emails where they where they sync, you know, synthesize the news literally around the world.
9:17
SPEAKER_00: They do they put a lot of stuff in one email.
9:20
SPEAKER_00: So I I applaud them for that.
9:22
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, they they tell you what happened overnight all over the world, and we as Americans think about America, but that that's not the world markets.
9:30
SPEAKER_01: The reason the CME group border trades open at night is to facilitate liquidity for the world markets, and it's a big world.
9:36
SPEAKER_01: What are we pushing?
9:37
SPEAKER_01: Eight, nine billion people here.
9:39
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
9:40
SPEAKER_01: All right, breaking news, breaking news, breaking news.
9:42
SPEAKER_00: Bitty, bitty, bitty, beep, beep, beep, beep.
9:44
SPEAKER_01: Breaking news.
9:45
SPEAKER_00: I first got the the hint of this as a potential story Tuesday of this week, but I couldn't confirm anything.
9:53
SPEAKER_00: Then this morning I got an email saying you better check into this more because there could be just more than smoke.
10:01
SPEAKER_00: And this is what we found out.
10:03
SPEAKER_00: Teamsters Local 455 is in active contract talks with Cargill in Fort Morgan, Colorado.
10:11
SPEAKER_00: Reports of a possible, and I stress possible, Wildcat walkout.
10:16
SPEAKER_00: That's unconfirmed at this time.
10:18
SPEAKER_00: The workers are pushing for higher wages, safety line speeds, and healthcare issues are paramount topics.
10:26
SPEAKER_00: It mirrors the broader meatpacking labor unrest that we've seen, Tommy, over the last year or so.
10:32
SPEAKER_00: And it's a potential risk to beef supply if the tensions escalate.
10:36
SPEAKER_00: So this will be something that we'll have to take an uh update on early next week.
10:42
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
10:43
SPEAKER_01: That's uh a lot of moving parts, not only in the price of cattle, but the overall labor labor of cattle, right, Jim?
10:50
SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
10:51
SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
10:52
SPEAKER_00: Let's talk about this one.
10:53
SPEAKER_00: Well, this are multiple items that we'll get into.
10:57
SPEAKER_00: USDA Secretary Rollins was in Missouri, but now she initially was supposed to be in Arizona today.
11:04
SPEAKER_00: We'll talk about why that didn't happen.
11:06
SPEAKER_00: But when she went to Missouri today, she was on Stuart Varney's show yesterday on Fox News, uh Fox Business, and saying she teased thing.
11:17
SPEAKER_00: I'm going to Missouri, and we'll have some news about uh reshoring, which means bring bring the fertilizer production back to the United States.
11:25
SPEAKER_00: But she couldn't get interagency sign-off to unveil the news I think that they wanted.
11:32
SPEAKER_00: I will tell you some of what we've talked about over the last few weeks, Tommy.
11:36
SPEAKER_00: The Trump team is working on long-term plan to reshore fertilizer productions.
11:41
SPEAKER_00: What's that mean?
11:42
SPEAKER_00: Grants, tax incentives, loan guarantees, because you need loan guarantees because above and beyond USDA loan guarantee program that the fertilizer industry and bankers tell me is too cumbersome to work with.
11:57
SPEAKER_00: So they're looking at different ways to do loan guarantees, maybe World Bank, I don't know.
12:02
SPEAKER_00: Accelerated permitting at the federal, state, and local level.
12:07
SPEAKER_00: Now, this isn't short-term stuff.
12:09
SPEAKER_00: This is strategy for that.
12:11
SPEAKER_00: It might take two to three years to unfold, but to me, it's a good sign that we're finally having thinkers think to reshore and get some portions of the fertilizer industry back to this country.
12:25
SPEAKER_00: Not potash.
12:26
SPEAKER_00: Canada has the potash.
12:27
SPEAKER_00: But there's another option, trade policy.
12:29
SPEAKER_00: That's why I bring up Canada.
12:31
SPEAKER_00: We have to get more improved relations with Canada in order to get the best price for it for their potash.
12:38
SPEAKER_00: But the bottom line is eventually, and it could be next week, that Rollins will announce some initiatives, but this is just not USDA.
12:48
SPEAKER_00: Other people, other news sources this week, Tommy, uh were writing about what we talked about on this show.
12:56
SPEAKER_00: Uh, I think at the time we interviewed Vaden, that there's disagreement within the Trump administration on uh lifting those countervailing duties on Moroccan fertilizer.
13:09
SPEAKER_00: I think we speculated on air, we couldn't totally confirm it, that U.S.
13:14
SPEAKER_00: trade rep Jamison Greer was fighting that.
13:17
SPEAKER_00: Now, when he was a uh lawyer, he worked with Simplot and of course one of his clients, and they want to continue those tariffs.
13:26
SPEAKER_00: Now, I can't totally prove that, but that's the scuttle.
13:29
SPEAKER_00: But other people now are reporting what this podcast talked about several weeks ago.
13:34
SPEAKER_00: That was probably one of the issues that's held this up.
13:37
SPEAKER_00: They need to get uh Jamison Greer sign off.
13:39
SPEAKER_00: So this is postponed till next week, but I'll tell you there's not much they can do short term.
13:45
SPEAKER_00: Maybe stuff coming in from Venezuela.
13:48
SPEAKER_00: They put a 90-day extension on the uh Jones Act waiver that's mainly in the transportation, moving the product on it.
13:56
SPEAKER_00: And that's a good thing, but it it's it's not gonna make a major, major difference.
14:01
SPEAKER_00: But still, that's short term.
14:03
SPEAKER_00: Longer term is where U.S.
14:05
SPEAKER_00: farmers need to look at, and that's where some of these options that we're talking about, that's what we need to follow through on.
14:14
SPEAKER_00: Because some farmers might think, why does why do fertilizer companies they make a lot of money?
14:20
SPEAKER_00: Why do they need additional assistance?
14:24
SPEAKER_00: Well, the same thing can be said for some farmer aid as well, by the way, to be totally blunt.
14:30
SPEAKER_00: However, look at co-ops.
14:32
SPEAKER_00: Farmers don't forget co-ops.
14:35
SPEAKER_00: I I talk every year for the last 11 to 12 years to MKC Co-op in Kansas.
14:41
SPEAKER_00: And over the last few years, I know they've invested in fertilizer, but it's a huge expenditure.
14:48
SPEAKER_00: So if you had a combination of grants and tax incentives and loan guarantees, a board of directors, not only at co-ops, but companies, will be more confident of putting their own money in as an investment if they have a backstop.
15:06
SPEAKER_00: My bottom line on this, Tommy, is this is the perfect role for U.S.
15:11
SPEAKER_00: government to work with private industry, get an industry that we want to reshore for national security reasons back into this country.
15:20
SPEAKER_00: And once it's going, then pull the government back, release what they're doing, and let the chips fall up or down based on a profit motive perspective.
15:32
SPEAKER_00: That's really the good role of U.S.
15:34
SPEAKER_00: government.
15:34
SPEAKER_00: I hope it happens.
15:35
SPEAKER_00: Hope it happens.
15:37
SPEAKER_00: Well, I think I I went uh Yeah, I think this is this is the next one.
15:43
SPEAKER_00: Oh, it is.
15:43
SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah, because yes, sir.
15:45
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
15:45
SPEAKER_01: First time ever doing the show with you.
15:47
SPEAKER_01: Thank you, sir.
15:49
SPEAKER_00: We got good news today.
15:50
SPEAKER_00: This is what farmers have been asking me about in speeches.
15:53
SPEAKER_00: When are we going to get what we call what a farmer calls a top-up payment?
15:57
SPEAKER_00: Okay, they call it the second supplemental disaster payment.
16:00
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's the special disaster relief program that you always ask me.
16:04
SPEAKER_00: What's SDRP mean?
16:06
SPEAKER_00: Special disaster relief.
16:07
SPEAKER_01: This graphic.
16:10
SPEAKER_01: Oh, those boys had to do something, but hold on.
16:13
SPEAKER_01: Where's our Trump books?
16:14
SPEAKER_01: I'll get it.
16:14
SPEAKER_01: I'll get it right here.
16:16
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
16:17
SPEAKER_00: There's a lot of money here, and and it's needed out there.
16:21
SPEAKER_00: And this is what they announced.
16:22
SPEAKER_00: This is what uh Rollins announced in Missouri today.
16:27
SPEAKER_00: Eligible producers with approved program applications for losses due to natural disasters in calendar years 2023 and 2024.
16:37
SPEAKER_00: Producers will know who they are in this.
16:39
SPEAKER_00: The initial payout was factored at 35%.
16:44
SPEAKER_00: Well, today's announcement added another 35%, increasing the payment factor to 70%.
16:51
SPEAKER_00: That's that's billions of dollars, Tommy.
16:54
SPEAKER_00: 6.6 billion were in payments were initially provided to eligible producers, so it looks like that'll be doubled.
17:01
SPEAKER_00: But but uh there was a the if if the pay if farmers hit their payment limit for either 2023 or 2024 or both, there's no additional payments.
17:11
SPEAKER_00: I hate to get too much down in the weeds, but farmers want to know that.
17:15
SPEAKER_00: And if you're in an LLC or S corporation, you're limited to one payment plus a possible extra payment if your farm's adjusted gross income exceeds 75% of total adjusted gross income.
17:28
SPEAKER_00: USDA also announced that the April 30th deadline for this program is extended to August the 12th for both stage one and stage two for the special disaster relief program.
17:41
SPEAKER_00: That's more flexibility for county FSA offices.
17:45
SPEAKER_00: So if you if you were already approved for this, I don't think farmers are gonna have to do anything.
17:50
SPEAKER_00: The payment will just show up.
17:52
SPEAKER_01: At least that's what we're flowing like through an ACH through the check-in.
17:55
SPEAKER_00: Yes, yes.
17:56
SPEAKER_00: And another program element that came out this week that we don't have a graphic for is the the the recent farm bill changes announced that beginning with the 2026 crops, we we can have up to 30 million more base acres.
18:14
SPEAKER_00: Now, FSA county offices have until May the 15th to get the information to themselves, okay?
18:22
SPEAKER_00: Then after a farmer has been notified of FSA's information regarding base acres, farmers have 90 days from the time they're notified by their county offices to make a decision on base acres.
18:38
SPEAKER_00: That's all I want to say because I don't want to get too detailed, but that's base acres, okay?
18:43
SPEAKER_00: Next one.
18:45
SPEAKER_01: Okay, but real quick, what is this next program?
18:47
SPEAKER_01: This program is called what the top-up?
18:50
SPEAKER_00: Well, it's called the uh special disaster relief program, but the the they announced a supplemental payment, and farmers call it a top-up payment because they initially got a 35% factor payment.
19:02
SPEAKER_00: They're taking that 35% factor, doubling it basically.
19:06
SPEAKER_00: That not basically, they did, and now the payment factor is 70%.
19:11
SPEAKER_00: So that that's a chunk of money.
19:13
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
19:14
SPEAKER_01: Let's go back to Rollins again and how she didn't go to Arizona on Friday.
19:17
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, remember last week uh all the word was, oh, she's gonna go to Arizona on Friday, the 24th.
19:23
SPEAKER_00: Well, yesterday, yeah, yesterday, they put the signal out that she wasn't gonna go.
19:30
SPEAKER_00: In fact, she was going to Missouri.
19:32
SPEAKER_00: Well, there, you know, there's always a reason.
19:34
SPEAKER_00: She was gonna go to Arizona to the port, to a port, and I don't know whether she was gonna announce a reopening of the border, maybe, but it didn't happen.
19:42
SPEAKER_00: Now, the reason I've been told is there are more new world screwworm cases in Mexico, almost seven seven hundred cases, Tommy.
19:52
SPEAKER_00: Uh already that's a lot in in April.
19:57
SPEAKER_00: And then what's the bullet point that I have there, Tommy?
20:00
SPEAKER_00: I forgot it.
20:01
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, nearly 40 percent of those detections are in the weekending April the second.
20:06
SPEAKER_00: Now, let me read you a quote.
20:08
SPEAKER_00: I'm trying to go to my notes here.
20:10
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that a good contact of mine, a USDA insider, gave me regarding this issue with Mexico.
20:17
SPEAKER_00: Each time that we think the border is going to be reopened, we get more cases in Mexico.
20:23
SPEAKER_00: This is a direct quote, not me, my source.
20:26
SPEAKER_00: At what point do we acknowledge that Mexico is a failed partner and that they are using the the NWS to bolster their own feeding and processing sector?
20:38
SPEAKER_00: I worry we are getting played.
20:40
SPEAKER_00: Isn't that an interesting wow?
20:42
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that is extremely yeah.
20:44
SPEAKER_00: I can't I'm gonna be checking on that, but we've had that that discussion before that they're building up their their own industry.
20:52
SPEAKER_00: And the closer we get to a potential USDA announcement, all of a sudden we get more cases in Mexico.
21:00
SPEAKER_00: I just I that's not a coincidence to me.
21:02
SPEAKER_00: Anyway, that's enough on NWS.
21:05
SPEAKER_00: Stay tuned, but it looks like it's been set back due to those additional cases.
21:09
SPEAKER_01: Some big news how the USDA, lots of bullet points here, Jeff.
21:13
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, the the bottom line here is that USDA is very serious, as Stephen Vaden told us.
21:19
SPEAKER_00: They've got follow-through on USDA reorganization.
21:23
SPEAKER_00: This week they shifted, yeah, there's Stephen Vaden.
21:26
SPEAKER_00: This week they shifted a lot of FSIS and research agencies eventually out of Washington to those regional hubs.
21:35
SPEAKER_00: There's a new food safety center going to be in Iowa, Urbindale, the suburb of Des Moines, to house around 200 staff.
21:42
SPEAKER_00: So that's good news for Iowa.
21:44
SPEAKER_00: And you'll recall early on, I kept on hearing that there might be a hub in Iowa.
21:50
SPEAKER_00: Well, this is somewhat of a hub because it's the new food safety center.
21:54
SPEAKER_00: There's going to be a science center in Athens, Georgia, and that's going to expand microbiology, chemistry work, etc.
22:02
SPEAKER_00: They've said no impact on the number of inspectors.
22:05
SPEAKER_00: Around 85% of FSIS work for.
22:09
SPEAKER_00: Is unchanged, no layoffs are planned.
22:12
SPEAKER_00: About a hundred positions are going to be remain in Washington.
22:16
SPEAKER_00: That's for policy and congressional work.
22:18
SPEAKER_00: And some even additional FSIS roles are going to be in Colorado.
22:24
SPEAKER_00: So they'll have a broad national footprint.
22:27
SPEAKER_00: Also, they announced that ERS and NIFA are going to go to Kansas City, more people, and some NAS roles are going to be switched to St.
22:36
SPEAKER_00: Louis and regional offices.
22:38
SPEAKER_00: Now, if you recall, Vaden told us that the lockup report that USDA has each month on the crop production report, and that's where we get the Wosnick too, will still remain in Washington, but it'll be moved from the South Building eventually to the what we call the Executive Office Building because they're going to sell the South building.
23:00
SPEAKER_00: A big sensitive issue that they announced the Beltsville, Maryland closure, that's the Ag Research Service.
23:07
SPEAKER_00: And that didn't sit well with Maryland lawmakers, but it's going to happen.
23:14
SPEAKER_00: Well, you will they'll either lose jobs or transfer.
23:17
SPEAKER_00: You have to transfer.
23:18
SPEAKER_00: And there is a far there, there is some fear that you'll have a brain drain, but it's not like you don't have brainy people out in the Midwest.
23:26
SPEAKER_00: Their overarching goal here is to get more of these offices, and USDA has a lot of offices and people back into the ear interior where the public is, where the USDA's public is really at.
23:40
SPEAKER_00: They're not in Washington, they're in the public in the states.
23:44
SPEAKER_00: Now, there's going to actually be an increase in research positions in some states.
23:49
SPEAKER_00: North Dakota, uh, Senator John Hovind is very happy because his state is going to gain about$28.5 million annually from this expansion in North Dakota.
24:00
SPEAKER_00: Again, the overall goal that Rollins has said is to improve efficiency eventually as a result of this program and get the facilities and products that USDA puts out closer to the people USDA serves without reducing duplication, et cetera.
24:22
SPEAKER_00: And the overall goals are good.
24:24
SPEAKER_00: It's going to take a while to get there, so for sure.
24:28
SPEAKER_00: But I think to me personally, I think it's it's a good process to get them out as much outside of Washington, D.C.
24:36
SPEAKER_00: and closer to the people USDA serves.
24:39
SPEAKER_00: Bottom line.
24:41
SPEAKER_00: Food price.
24:41
SPEAKER_00: We got a food price report this morning.
24:43
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
24:44
SPEAKER_00: Food inflation forecast was lowered to just under 3% from 3.6%.
24:50
SPEAKER_00: Grocery prices are still seeing up 2.4%.
24:53
SPEAKER_00: Restaurant prices up 3.6%.
24:56
SPEAKER_00: Tells you that those restaurant prices are not going to go down that much.
25:01
SPEAKER_00: Overall, however, food inflation is getting near the 20-year average.
25:05
SPEAKER_00: That's a good thing.
25:06
SPEAKER_00: Beef price increase was trimmed to 6.3% this year.
25:11
SPEAKER_00: It had been a little over 10%.
25:14
SPEAKER_00: So they're making progress on lowering meat and beef prices.
25:20
SPEAKER_00: Not total stake, but uh primarily hamburger prices, I think.
25:24
SPEAKER_00: Egg prices are forecast to drop sharply, Tommy, almost 29.5%.
25:31
SPEAKER_00: So we got all that and information this morning from USDA.
25:36
SPEAKER_01: Pretty crazy.
25:37
SPEAKER_01: Just as we're doing the show, Senator John Heaven, John Hovind from the great state of North Dakota, he just put out a tweet.
25:44
SPEAKER_01: I'd like to read that.
25:45
SPEAKER_01: And it's it's just interesting to record a show like this and then see tweets like this come out.
25:52
SPEAKER_01: But let me read it real quick from Senator John Hovind.
25:56
SPEAKER_01: We worked to secure$21 billion in disaster assistance.
25:59
SPEAKER_01: Now the USDA is using the remaining funding to issue a second round of SDRP payments for producers impacted in 2023-24, raising support from 35% to 70%.
26:12
SPEAKER_01: And boy, it's like someone just talked about that in five minutes.
26:15
SPEAKER_00: He got it out before his press release.
26:18
SPEAKER_00: And that's on that's on the site too.
26:20
SPEAKER_00: We had that out pretty pretty quickly once we got the word this morning.
26:24
SPEAKER_00: Ready to move on from this one?
26:25
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
26:26
SPEAKER_00: We're ready to move on.
26:28
SPEAKER_00: All right.
26:28
SPEAKER_00: Oh, year-round E15.
26:30
SPEAKER_00: Now, if you heard me on AgriTalk this morning, I was bad news bears about it because I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think whenever they get the legislative language completed, and it isn't yet, despite conjecture by some, there's several languages floating around on year-round E15.
26:51
SPEAKER_00: I think they're going to be Monday, the House Rules Committee is going to meet on the rule for floor debate of the Farm Bill 2.0.
27:00
SPEAKER_00: Now, the House Rules Committee, Tommy, rules which amendments are in order to be voted on.
27:07
SPEAKER_00: That's why they call it the House Rules Committee.
27:09
SPEAKER_00: There's at least 300 potential amendments, but there won't be that many.
27:13
SPEAKER_00: Most of them will be thrown out, as far as non-germane, as we call it.
27:18
SPEAKER_00: On E15, of course, some of the farm state lawmakers and the biofuel groups want to have this as an amendment on the Farm Bill 2.0 bill, but in the past, the House Rules Committee has argued that's not the jurisdiction of the ag committees, nor on the Farm Bill.
27:39
SPEAKER_00: And I think they're going to rule the same way.
27:43
SPEAKER_00: Unless uh G.T.
27:44
SPEAKER_00: Thompson, House Ag Committee Chairman, gets a waiver from the authorizing committees in both the House and the Senate, which I think he'll try to get.
27:54
SPEAKER_00: Usually they don't want to give up jurisdiction.
27:57
SPEAKER_00: So where does that mean?
27:59
SPEAKER_00: If it's not in the farm bill, which I don't think it will be, another legislative vehicle is needed.
28:05
SPEAKER_00: Either a standalone bill, which will be hard to get, or a must-pass bill later this year.
28:12
SPEAKER_00: Either a wire with the RAN funding bill or uh an ag disaster funding bill and another energy-related bill.
28:23
SPEAKER_00: So that's my bottom line on that.
28:24
SPEAKER_00: I hope I'm wrong on the E15, but I don't think I am.
28:28
SPEAKER_00: Now, is there any good news going on?
28:31
SPEAKER_00: I said on Agri-Talk, Tommy, that a farmer called in and said, What about 45Z?
28:37
SPEAKER_00: What about sustainable aviation fuel?
28:39
SPEAKER_00: You'll recall that earlier this year, both EPA, USDA, and energy departments said we'll get additional, much important, a lot of important information on the next steps for the 45Z or sustainable aviation fuel SAF program, either in May or June.
28:58
SPEAKER_00: That's coming up.
29:00
SPEAKER_00: It's coming up.
29:01
SPEAKER_00: So I'm going to do some work next week on trying to find out uh what's the timeline on that and what the information may be because that's your next uh leg up, Tommy, in the soy complex, especially soybean oil.
29:14
SPEAKER_00: We need to see specifics from USDA on how the program's going to be operated.
29:20
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, April's flying by, Jim.
29:22
SPEAKER_01: May 1st is next Friday.
29:23
SPEAKER_01: That's right.
29:24
SPEAKER_01: We'll be doing another show next Friday, and then you're going to be traveling.
29:27
SPEAKER_01: Let's go into number seven here.
29:28
SPEAKER_01: This is interesting.
29:29
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, because Trump and G have a planned, it's been rescheduled once before, summit May the 14th and 15th in Beijing.
29:39
SPEAKER_00: Earlier this week, I have a panel of China watchers that I call and I ask them, do you think this summit's going to go on or be postponed again?
29:48
SPEAKER_00: And they ranged between 45 to 55% odds.
29:53
SPEAKER_00: That's right in the middle.
29:54
SPEAKER_00: And all of them told me the same thing, Tommy, that they weren't confident in their prediction.
29:59
SPEAKER_00: That means they don't know.
30:01
SPEAKER_01: They don't know.
30:02
SPEAKER_01: And you know, Jim, yeah.
30:04
SPEAKER_01: To the markets yesterday, at one point, Kans City wheat was up 25, and soybeans were on the dead low.
30:10
SPEAKER_01: And of course, we have weather and the crop tour and everything in Kans City.
30:13
SPEAKER_01: But I also feel like if there's geopolitical risk, wheat catches a bid.
30:18
SPEAKER_01: And if Trump's not going to China, soybeans make a low.
30:21
SPEAKER_01: And usually a rising tide brings up all ships, but not yesterday.
30:25
SPEAKER_01: Uh, quite a divergence between wheat and soybeans in the market lately.
30:29
SPEAKER_00: Well, the thing on soybeans, U.S.
30:31
SPEAKER_00: trade rep James and Greer had a couple here, well, one hearing this week in which he said it's it's not just going to be soybeans, that he expects China to fulfill their purchase commitments on soybeans, but he wants more receivables.
30:45
SPEAKER_00: And he mentioned corn, wheat, sorghum, beef, things like that.
30:50
SPEAKER_00: Now, I I put on here Senator Danes, Republican from Montana, key senator close to President Trump.
30:58
SPEAKER_00: He I call him the whisperer relative to China.
31:02
SPEAKER_00: He's going to lead a Senate colleague trip to China ahead of that summit.
31:07
SPEAKER_00: So if he's going over there, I take that as a positive signal because he'll find out certain things that he'll tell Trump before he goes over there.
31:18
SPEAKER_00: So I think that's a positive signal.
31:20
SPEAKER_00: China offered just as an off-the-cuff, they're going to supply us with two more pandas, by the way.
31:26
SPEAKER_00: And you'll recall in Japan they took them back because they've had bad relations recently with Japan.
31:33
SPEAKER_00: To me, that's another sign of goodwill between Xi Jinping and uh Trump.
31:40
SPEAKER_00: So uh the war with Iran could still stymie this trip, but both G and Trump want to have that summit.
31:50
SPEAKER_00: So I think it could take place after all.
31:53
SPEAKER_00: We'll continue to monitor it, the ups and downs of that summit.
31:56
SPEAKER_01: Sounds good.
31:57
SPEAKER_01: We're about halfway through the show.
31:58
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32:02
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32:05
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32:08
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32:15
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32:22
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32:24
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32:27
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32:31
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32:42
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32:50
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32:54
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33:00
SPEAKER_01: Of course, it's an audio service, folks.
33:02
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33:07
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33:13
SPEAKER_01: Back to the show, my friend.
33:14
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and another pitch, Tommy.
33:15
SPEAKER_00: Well, Tommy and I will do webinars for your individual companies if you need us to on a Zoom call.
33:22
SPEAKER_00: We've seen a pickup, yeah.
33:23
SPEAKER_00: We've seen a pickup in that.
33:25
SPEAKER_00: So if you can't afford us to come out, it's a reduced price to have a webinar.
33:32
SPEAKER_00: And they're they're they're useful.
33:34
SPEAKER_00: I've done more than a few in my lifetime.
33:36
SPEAKER_00: And in fact, this year, I think I've done at least five already.
33:40
SPEAKER_00: So again, that's always another option.
33:42
SPEAKER_00: Contact Tommy and his people, and we'll we'll set it up for you.
33:46
SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
33:46
SPEAKER_01: Let's get to number eight.
33:48
SPEAKER_01: DOJ drops criminal probe on Fed J Powell.
33:53
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that was happened this morning.
33:55
SPEAKER_00: And what's it mean?
33:56
SPEAKER_00: It means that they backed off, and Senator Tillis from North Carolina, Republican, now will pull off his hold on taking up Trump's uh nominee, Kevin Walsh.
34:09
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Kevin Walsh.
34:11
SPEAKER_00: And so I think he will be confirmed by the Senate prior to current Fed chairman Jerome J.
34:18
SPEAKER_00: Powell.
34:19
SPEAKER_00: His last day as chairman is May the 15th.
34:22
SPEAKER_00: So I think that's just how fast news can take.
34:25
SPEAKER_00: We couldn't have said that early early this morning, but boy, when that news broke that uh they pulled back from the the probe, the criminal probe of uh Jerome Powell, that then means an accelerated push to get Kevin Walsh approved.
34:40
SPEAKER_00: And I think that's going to happen.
34:42
SPEAKER_00: That's the bottom line there.
34:43
SPEAKER_01: Very good.
34:44
SPEAKER_00: Next one is we have an FOMC meeting next week, April 28th, 29th.
34:49
SPEAKER_00: I don't think there's going to be a press conference, but bottom line, it's going to be boring.
34:54
SPEAKER_00: There'll be no change in interest rates, and it'll be looks to be Powell's last uh meeting as Fed chairman.
35:03
SPEAKER_00: Because if Walsh wouldn't wouldn't be approved, he he's already said he would stay on, and much to Trump's uh uh uh negativism about that.
35:13
SPEAKER_00: But I think we'll have a new chairman by then.
35:16
SPEAKER_00: So no change in interest rates because uh actually that's probably the right way to go now.
35:21
SPEAKER_00: There's inflationary expectations still are are not near the two percent level that the Fed wants.
35:28
SPEAKER_00: This is a curtain raiser for Monday.
35:30
SPEAKER_00: The Supreme Court, yeah, the Supreme Court is going to rule.
35:34
SPEAKER_00: That's Congress there.
35:36
SPEAKER_01: That's Congress.
35:37
SPEAKER_01: Hold on, hold on.
35:38
SPEAKER_00: That's the Supreme Court.
35:39
SPEAKER_01: Well, the two are like related or something.
35:43
SPEAKER_00: The Supreme Court is gonna have a review meeting of an important case for agriculture, Tommy.
35:50
SPEAKER_00: And it's and it it it impacts Bayer.
35:53
SPEAKER_00: They're gonna, it's the Monsanto versus Durnell Center, and that's the pesticide labeling authority.
35:59
SPEAKER_00: Now, the the issue is does federal law FIFRA override state level warning requirements?
36:06
SPEAKER_00: That's the key issue.
36:07
SPEAKER_00: The key chemical is glyphosate, that's the Roundup's active ingredient.
36:12
SPEAKER_00: Now there's a split on the regulatory side.
36:15
SPEAKER_00: EPA says it's an unlikely carcinogen, where another agency said it's quote, probably carcinogenic.
36:24
SPEAKER_00: Now, the legal states are huge because there's over 100,000 pending lawsuits that are tied to Roundup.
36:33
SPEAKER_00: The Missouri case that triggered this, the Missouri case, they awarded a 1.25 million verdict for a plaintiff alleging cancer from exposure.
36:42
SPEAKER_00: Monsanto argues that the federal labeling standard should preempt state claims.
36:48
SPEAKER_00: That's what they're going to review on.
36:50
SPEAKER_00: The plaintiff's argument is that the states can enforce their own warning requirements.
36:55
SPEAKER_00: Now, the federal position, the U.S.
36:58
SPEAKER_00: Solicitor General, is backing Monsanto on this one.
37:02
SPEAKER_00: What's the financial impact?
37:04
SPEAKER_00: Bayer is pursuing a$7.25 billion settlement.
37:09
SPEAKER_00: Trump had an executive order recently that highlighted glyphosate as critical to food security.
37:17
SPEAKER_00: That got a lot of Maha people upset.
37:21
SPEAKER_00: Okay, by the way.
37:22
SPEAKER_00: So what's the timeline of the eventual ruling?
37:25
SPEAKER_00: Remember, Monday's just going to be a review, a hearing on it.
37:28
SPEAKER_00: The ruling is expected by early July.
37:32
SPEAKER_00: So sometime in June or July.
37:35
SPEAKER_00: What's the implication?
37:36
SPEAKER_00: It could reshape federal versus state authority and industry liability risk.
37:43
SPEAKER_00: This is an important issue, Tommy, that we'll we'll continue to monitor.
37:47
SPEAKER_01: Very good.
37:48
SPEAKER_01: Did you hit all your talking points?
37:49
SPEAKER_00: I did that one.
37:50
SPEAKER_00: I did.
37:51
SPEAKER_01: Good job.
37:53
SPEAKER_01: Virginia redistricting this.
37:55
SPEAKER_00: My home state of Virginia had a vote, and I voted Tuesday, and it was a closer vote than some of the election watchers uh thought.
38:03
SPEAKER_00: Look at that.
38:03
SPEAKER_00: 51.5% said yes to the redistricting vote.
38:07
SPEAKER_00: That really carves up the state of Virginia.
38:11
SPEAKER_00: We have 11 House seats.
38:13
SPEAKER_00: Right now it's six uh Democrats and five Republicans, but this redistricting would change it to 10 Democrats and one Republican seat in a state that President Trump won 46% of the vote.
38:29
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
38:29
SPEAKER_00: You call that unfair?
38:31
SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
38:32
SPEAKER_01: Jim, where are you on this little chart?
38:34
SPEAKER_00: Well, uh well, I'm in Loudoun County, so it would be up in northern Virginia.
38:39
SPEAKER_00: Loudoun County.
38:41
SPEAKER_01: Is it one of those blue ones?
38:42
SPEAKER_00: Like over in there.
38:43
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
38:44
SPEAKER_00: No, Loudoun is still red.
38:45
SPEAKER_00: Used to be blue, but we have a lot of government workers now live in Loudoun County.
38:51
SPEAKER_00: So it's it's more red.
38:54
SPEAKER_00: But the Virginia court, but right after the the uh vote, the very next day, a Virginia circuit court judge ruled it was invalid, uh it was unconstitutional, and they blocked implementation.
39:08
SPEAKER_00: So the state of Virginia has already appealed to the Supreme Court of Virginia.
39:13
SPEAKER_00: Already?
39:14
SPEAKER_00: Which, yeah, already, which has said that they're gonna review it.
39:18
SPEAKER_00: So I think that if they if the Supreme Court of Virginia rules in favor of, in this case, the yes vote, the Democrats, I think it'll be further appealed to the U.S.
39:31
SPEAKER_00: Supreme Court.
39:32
SPEAKER_00: So we haven't heard the last of issue, but redistricting is important because look at the Democrats will gain four seats in the House, and that actually would increase pretty significantly the odds that are already pretty high, I think, that the Democrats are going to regain control of the House following midterm elections.
39:54
SPEAKER_00: But we'll see.
39:56
SPEAKER_00: That's why we're covering that issue, Tommy, even though it's a state issue.
40:00
SPEAKER_01: You want the good news or the bad news?
40:03
SPEAKER_01: Good news is we're out of slides.
40:06
SPEAKER_01: Bad news is that means the show's over and I miss you already.
40:10
SPEAKER_01: What happened?
40:11
SPEAKER_00: Well, there's still good news because we've got that SDR payment, top-up payment, that was that's multi-billion dollar payment.
40:20
SPEAKER_00: We've got maybe a house of floor vote later this next week or in early May on the Farm Bill 2.0.
40:29
SPEAKER_00: We're gonna see how the House Rules Committee, I will tell you that if the whip and the Republican whip, they're gonna do the count next week.
40:37
SPEAKER_00: And if the votes aren't there, they won't have the vote.
40:39
SPEAKER_00: So we're gonna have to gut check that one.
40:42
SPEAKER_00: As far as E-15, I hope I'm wrong, but I think that's it later rather than sooner.
40:47
SPEAKER_00: We're getting closer to the day that we can fill in the blank.
40:50
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's E-15.
40:52
SPEAKER_00: We're gonna get closer to the day that we're gonna get final details on the implementation of the 45Z program, which is really sustainable aviation fuel.
41:02
SPEAKER_00: And that should be the next leg up for at least the soybean oil market, maybe corn, uh, depending on the on on the details on on the factoring for corn, how much it's gonna qualify and at what level.
41:17
SPEAKER_00: And then we're gonna probably get more news on the Xi Jinping Trump uh uh summit as that breaks next week.
41:24
SPEAKER_00: And maybe we'll get another teaser announcement from USDA Secretary Rollins if she can get the sign-off from other interagent agency, interagency agencies on fertilizer, both short-term and longer-term steps to reshore fertilizer back to this great country.
41:45
SPEAKER_00: That's a pretty good wrap-up, Tommy.
41:47
SPEAKER_01: I'll see you, my friend.
41:48
SPEAKER_01: Great job as always, Jim.
41:49
SPEAKER_00: See ya.