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Transcript

Navigating the Market Double Shock · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning , traders !
• 0:01
  It is 6 am on Sunday , March 8th , 2026 , here in the Pacific .
• 0:07
  I am your host , Sunny Moneybags , and you are listening to Spy Trader .
• 0:11
  Grab your coffee and maybe a cozy blanket because the market weather is looking a little chilly as we head into a brandnew week .
• 0:18
  We are here to help you navigate these choppy waters with some clearheaded analysis and a bit of a game plan .
• 0:24
  It has been a wild weekend , and the news cycle is moving fast .
• 0:29
  We are currently staring down what analysts are calling a double shock .
• 0:33
  On one hand , we have the geopolitical fallout from Operation Epic Fury , involving U.S.
• 0:39
  and Israeli military strikes on Iran .
• 0:42
  This has sent global energy markets into a tailspin .
• 0:46
  On the other hand , the specter of stagflation is haunting Wall Street .
• 0:50
  Last Friday's jobs report was , quite frankly , a bloodbath .
• 0:56
  We saw a loss of 92,000 nonfarm payrolls , and unemployment has ticked up to 4.4 percent .
• 1:03
  The paradox here is that while jobs are disappearing , hourly wages and oil prices are surging , with WTI crude oil blowing past 90 dollars a barrel .
• 1:13
  This puts the Federal Reserve in a very tight spot ahead of their meeting later this month .
• 1:18
  Are they fighting a recession or fighting oildriven inflation ?
• 1:22
  It is a tough call .
• 1:24
  We are also seeing some cracks in the private credit market .
• 1:28
  BlackRock had to limit withdrawals from its 26 billion dollar HPS Corporate Lending Fund due to a surge in redemptions , and Blackstone is feeling similar heat .
• 1:38
  This liquidity mismatch is making people very nervous about the Financial Select Sector SPDR , or XLF , and there are fears of broader financial contagion .
• 1:48
  Looking at the week ahead , the calendar is packed .
• 1:52
  On Wednesday , March 11th , we get the U.S.
• 1:55
  Consumer Price Index report .
• 1:57
  We are expecting it to hit 2.5 percent , but if it comes in higher because of those energy costs , expect a selloff in bonds and tech .
• 2:06
  Then on Friday , the Fed's favorite gauge , Core PCE , arrives alongside revised GDP numbers .
• 2:14
  Growth is looking sluggish at 1.4 percent , and if prices stay high , that stagflation narrative is going to be hard to ignore .
• 2:22
  In terms of sectors , Energy is the undisputed heavyweight champion right now .
• 2:28
  With Brent crude testing 100 dollars a barrel , the XLE fund is outperforming .
• 2:34
  Companies like Chevron and Diamondback Energy are acting as solid hedges against the ongoing conflict .
• 2:40
  Meanwhile , Tech is feeling the squeeze .
• 2:43
  The AI hype is cooling off as investors demand to see the actual profits .
• 2:48
  Nvidia and Microsoft have already seen significant declines this year as high interest rates make those expensive valuations harder to justify .
• 2:58
  On the earnings front , keep your eyes on Oracle this Tuesday .
• 3:02
  They are down 21 percent this year and are spending heavily on AI infrastructure .
• 3:07
  We also have Adobe on Thursday , which is down 19 percent as investors worry if their Firefly AI tools are actually growing the business or just disrupting it .
• 3:17
  A potential bright spot might be the EV maker NIO on Tuesday , which is expected to report its firstever quarterly operating profit .
• 3:27
  So , what should you do with your portfolio ?
• 3:30
  First , consider hedging against this geopolitical risk .
• 3:34
  Gold is the classic fear trade , so looking at SPDR Gold Shares , or GLD , makes a lot of sense as it looks to test new highs .
• 3:43
  The Energy sector , specifically the XLE fund or even Chevron , remains a strong play because they benefit when crude prices rise .
• 3:53
  If you are feeling a bit more tactical and think the tech slide will continue through the Oracle and Adobe earnings , you might look at inverse ETFs like PSQ , which profits when the Nasdaq100 falls .
• 4:06
  I would suggest staying away from the Financial Select Sector SPDR , or XLF , until the situation with BlackRock and Blackstone stabilizes .
• 4:16
  For those looking for safety , the Healthcare sector via XLV is a great defensive haven .
• 4:23
  Specific stocks like Eli Lilly continue to show strength because people need healthcare regardless of what the economy is doing .
• 4:30
  Finally , if you want to stay in the broad market but are worried about the big tech giants dragging everything down , consider the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF , or RSP .
• 4:42
  It spreads the risk more evenly than the standard SPY .
• 4:45
  It is going to be a volatile week , friends .
• 4:48
  Keep your eyes on that CPI number on Wednesday , and stay safe out there .
• 4:54
  Thanks for tuning in to Spy Trader .
• 4:56
  I am Sunny Moneybags , and I will see you on the ticker !