Transcript

9.24.26 · Science Show KY

0:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to Radio Eye's Diary of Science and Nature. Your
0:04
Speaker 1: reader is Kelly Taylor. I'll have stories on science and nature,
0:08
Speaker 1: but first, a reminder, Radio Eye is a reading service
0:12
Speaker 1: intended for people who are blind or have other disabilities
0:15
Speaker 1: that make it difficult to read printed material. From Scientific American,
0:21
Speaker 1: we have an article dated September 17th, and the headline is,
0:25
Speaker 1: See the First New Species of Cat discovered in more
0:30
Speaker 1: than a century. Deep in the Bolivian cloud forest, there
0:35
Speaker 1: stalks an utterly adorable beast, smaller than a house cat
0:39
Speaker 1: and spotted like a leopard. The creature has long been
0:43
Speaker 1: known to local communities as a tilcayo, that's spelled T-I-L-C-A-Y-O. Scientists, however,
0:52
Speaker 1: have only just formally discovered it. marking the first new
0:56
Speaker 1: wildcat species to be identified in more than a century.
1:02
Speaker 1: The new species, Lepardus tilcaeo, is a type of tiger cat,
1:08
Speaker 1: a group of small felines in the genus Lepardus that
1:12
Speaker 1: are native to South America. In a paper published on
1:15
Speaker 1: Thursday in Current Biology, the researchers identify five distinct species
1:20
Speaker 1: of tiger cats in South America, including the tilcaeo. The
1:25
Speaker 1: discovery came by accident, said the study's co-lead author, Paolo Nagolas-Escarons.
1:32
Speaker 1: A man had brought one of the kitties into the
1:35
Speaker 1: sanctuary that she volunteered at, and she noticed that it
1:39
Speaker 1: didn't quite match any existing tiger cat species. After a
1:43
Speaker 1: series of genetic tests, she and her team discovered the
1:47
Speaker 1: cat must be a new species. It had likely diverged
1:54
Speaker 1: from its closest tiger cat relative some one and a
1:57
Speaker 1: half million years ago. The discovery of a new mammal,
2:01
Speaker 1: especially a cat, is rare. It's even more rare to
2:04
Speaker 1: find an entirely new species rather than a variation of
2:08
Speaker 1: a known species. The study analyzed the genomes of 38 cats,
2:13
Speaker 1: including 26 tiger cats, comprising, quote, the most complete genetic
2:19
Speaker 1: study yet, end quote, said the study's co-lead author Jonas Leskraut,
2:25
Speaker 1: an evolutionary ecologist at the University of Antwerp in Belgium.
2:30
Speaker 1: It's unclear how many tilkayos are out there, and the
2:33
Speaker 1: authors have said that the study should be a catalyst
2:36
Speaker 1: for intensified conservation efforts across tiger cat species. Quote, describing
2:44
Speaker 1: a new cat species after more than 100 years shows
2:47
Speaker 1: how much we still have to learn about the biodiversity
2:50
Speaker 1: around us. But it also reminds us that we need
2:53
Speaker 1: to protect the youngest forests, which are home to so
2:56
Speaker 1: many species, including some we are only beginning to understand,
3:01
Speaker 1: said Nogales Askaruns in a statement. Now let's turn to
3:06
Speaker 1: the Washington Post. And this article is headlined, This Far
3:11
Speaker 1: Out Idea Could Enable Solar Panels to Work at Night,
3:15
Speaker 1: dated September 14th. In a laboratory amid Northern Virginia's sprawling
3:23
Speaker 1: data centers, a group of scientists is looking very far
3:26
Speaker 1: outside the box for a solution to overwhelmed power grids.
3:31
Speaker 1: They want to harness the sun's rays and shoot a
3:34
Speaker 1: kilometer-wide laser, they prefer the term power beam, down from
3:39
Speaker 1: satellites in space to solar panels on Earth. The idea
3:43
Speaker 1: is to overcome solar power's biggest weakness, that it stops
3:46
Speaker 1: working when there is no sunlight. If all goes according
3:50
Speaker 1: to plan, a big if, as this is a vision
3:53
Speaker 1: innovators and investors have been chasing for decades, those beams
3:57
Speaker 1: could turn the energy industry on its head. They would
4:00
Speaker 1: enable off-the-shelf solar panels to generate electricity even at night
4:05
Speaker 1: and could more than triple the amount of energy produced
4:08
Speaker 1: by a conventional solar farm. As the scientists in Ashburn, Virginia,
4:13
Speaker 1: tinker with photovoltaic films, infrared rays, and heat-resistant metals, a
4:20
Speaker 1: large wall-mounted digital clock counts down toward January 2028. That's
4:25
Speaker 1: the deadline their four-year-old startup, Overview Energy, has imposed for
4:31
Speaker 1: beaming its first batch of power from space. Quote, we
4:37
Speaker 1: really believe that we are able to provide utility-scale power
4:41
Speaker 1: with this technology, said CEO Darko Philippi. He estimated that
4:47
Speaker 1: his company could supply a quarter of the new energy
4:50
Speaker 1: the United States will need over the next decade, with
4:53
Speaker 1: no new construction on land. Not everyone is convinced that
4:58
Speaker 1: the answer is in the stars. Space solar energy has
5:01
Speaker 1: long been dismissed as too impractical, too dangerous, and too expensive. Quote,
5:06
Speaker 1: the technology may work, said Amory Lovins, a Stanford physicist
5:11
Speaker 1: and co-founder of the energy think tank, RMI. but I
5:15
Speaker 1: have serious doubts the economics do, end quote. He said
5:20
Speaker 1: other technologies can produce abundant, even round-the-clock clean power for
5:24
Speaker 1: much cheaper. The outlook for the renegade space solar energy, though,
5:28
Speaker 1: has changed remarkably in recent months. Like fusion power plants,
5:33
Speaker 1: tiny nuclear reactors, and other sci-fi-worthy ideas that were largely
5:38
Speaker 1: written off years ago, this one has come roaring back
5:41
Speaker 1: as tech companies and investors grasp for solutions to a
5:45
Speaker 1: power crunch that threatens to stymie the growth of artificial
5:49
Speaker 1: intelligence and chill the U.S. economy. Meta has signed a
5:54
Speaker 1: contract to secure the first gigawatt of capacity Overview helps
5:59
Speaker 1: generate for its data centers. Big solar manufacturers are scurrying
6:06
Speaker 1: to design new products that could be used by a
6:09
Speaker 1: growing constellation of firms looking to make energy in space
6:13
Speaker 1: with an array of technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy
6:18
Speaker 1: is invested in helping space solar startups and university labs
6:23
Speaker 1: speed up development. The science underpinning Overview's business plan dates
6:29
Speaker 1: back to NASA's study of power beaming in the 1970s
6:33
Speaker 1: as a possible solution to that era's energy crisis. The
6:37
Speaker 1: system would be built around thousands of satellites orbiting thousands
6:40
Speaker 1: of miles above Earth collecting energy from uninterrupted sunlight and
6:45
Speaker 1: sending it down as invisible near-infrared light. Solar farms would
6:50
Speaker 1: be equipped with beacons that could guide a beam their way.
6:54
Speaker 1: A beam could be pointed toward any such beacon at
6:57
Speaker 1: any given time. And Overview would be able to constantly
7:00
Speaker 1: move power to areas most in need, as determined by
7:04
Speaker 1: its tech company and utility company clients. Overview's executives maintain
7:10
Speaker 1: that the beams would not be concentrated enough to be
7:13
Speaker 1: dangerous to humans on the ground. Quote, if you can
7:16
Speaker 1: stand in the sun, you can stand under this, said
7:19
Speaker 1: Abdullah Al-Shakarich, the company's other CEO. Quote, there is no
7:25
Speaker 1: chance this could be used as a weapon. We have
7:27
Speaker 1: military folks come though, and sometimes they ask, can this
7:32
Speaker 1: be used as a weapon? The answer is always no,
7:35
Speaker 1: end quote. The executives say that by the mid-2030s, they
7:39
Speaker 1: could generate electricity at prices lower than the gas plants
7:43
Speaker 1: currently used to keep the power grid stable in times
7:46
Speaker 1: of high demand. It's a heady projection and one that
7:50
Speaker 1: draws some industry skepticism in the face of daunting engineering
7:54
Speaker 1: challenges and huge potential costs to make the technology operational.
8:01
Speaker 1: Building the satellites, each the size of roughly two football fields,
8:05
Speaker 1: and catapulting them into orbit would be a massive undertaking. Quote,
8:11
Speaker 1: it is one thing to do some experiments with this technology,
8:14
Speaker 1: said Henry Hartsfield, research professor of space policy at George
8:19
Speaker 1: Washington University. It is another to send lots of these
8:23
Speaker 1: things into space. There are real questions about whether the
8:26
Speaker 1: launch capability will be there, end quote. Company officials acknowledge
8:32
Speaker 1: that it will be expensive to generate the first megawatts
8:35
Speaker 1: of power that would come from the planned 2028 demonstration.
8:40
Speaker 1: But Overview is betting that launch costs would plummet over
8:43
Speaker 1: the next decade as companies such as SpaceX and its
8:47
Speaker 1: competitors vow they can accommodate an explosion of space-bound energy infrastructure.
8:54
Speaker 1: SpaceX itself is building factories to produce solar panels for
8:59
Speaker 1: use in orbit. Others in the space industry are not
9:02
Speaker 1: so confident about launch prices going down. They note that
9:06
Speaker 1: demand for satellite launches from all manner of industries is
9:09
Speaker 1: expected to soar. Hartsfield said he is also unconvinced that
9:15
Speaker 1: all safety questions have been answered. Quote, even if it
9:19
Speaker 1: is not meant to be used as a weapon, it
9:21
Speaker 1: could still interfere with communications or flight navigation or other things,
9:26
Speaker 1: he said. Meta is willing to bet the obstacles can
9:30
Speaker 1: be overcome. If the technology were to be a success,
9:33
Speaker 1: it could cure some of the company's biggest headaches. Silicon
9:36
Speaker 1: Valley firms are struggling to lock down the power they
9:40
Speaker 1: need to fuel data centers. Their plans for developing more
9:44
Speaker 1: capacity are meeting intensifying resistance in communities across the country,
9:50
Speaker 1: as the environmental impact and the costs associated with the
9:53
Speaker 1: AI build-out trigger a fierce backlash. The idea that the
9:58
Speaker 1: energy equivalent it takes to power enough large cities could
10:02
Speaker 1: be generated without building anything new on Earth is enticing. Quote,
10:08
Speaker 1: space solar has the potential to deliver uninterrupted energy to
10:12
Speaker 1: the grid by building on existing solar infrastructure. This means
10:17
Speaker 1: no new land, no fuel and solar at night. says
10:21
Speaker 1: Nat Salstrom, Meta's vice president of energy and sustainability. Some
10:27
Speaker 1: potential customers may prefer to wait to see if it
10:29
Speaker 1: all works out. For them, Al Sharkarchi has a marketing
10:38
Speaker 1: line ready. Quote, in our early years, we were only
10:42
Speaker 1: going to be able to provide this energy to a
10:44
Speaker 1: limited number of customers, he said. If you are not
10:47
Speaker 1: in our queue today, then it will be a long
10:49
Speaker 1: time before you are able to see this energy. That's
10:51
Speaker 1: an advantage that you are ceding to the companies you
10:54
Speaker 1: are competing with, end quote. Overview is not the only option.
10:59
Speaker 1: It is among several space solar startups jockeying to show
11:03
Speaker 1: they can use space technology to produce clean energy at
11:07
Speaker 1: competitive prices. The methods of harnessing sun power vary widely.
11:12
Speaker 1: Some envision using it to power data centers floating in space. Quote,
11:18
Speaker 1: the markets see space as the next growth area, said
11:22
Speaker 1: Danielle Merfield, Global Chief Technology Officer at QCELS, one of
11:27
Speaker 1: the largest solar panel manufacturers in the U.S. Quote, our
11:32
Speaker 1: investors are definitely expecting space will be the next frontier
11:36
Speaker 1: for solar, end quote. The company has entered a partnership
11:39
Speaker 1: with the Georgia Institute of Technology to advance space-based solar
11:44
Speaker 1: power research, and it has launched a new space solar
11:48
Speaker 1: research and development team in Atlanta. Quote, there are still
11:53
Speaker 1: a lot of challenges for space solar, but we are
11:56
Speaker 1: also now seeing the pathway for solving them, said Ali Hajimiri,
12:01
Speaker 1: co-director of the space-based solar power project at Caltech. He
12:06
Speaker 1: has been working for 13 years on satellite systems that
12:09
Speaker 1: would beam microwaves down to Earth. Microwaves can cut through
12:14
Speaker 1: clouds and precipitation in ways that overviews infrared lasers cannot.
12:19
Speaker 1: But there's a catch. They can't generate power through conventional
12:22
Speaker 1: solar panels already on the ground. Existing solar farms would
12:27
Speaker 1: need to be retrofitted entirely, adding to the project's potential cost.
12:32
Speaker 1: Hajimiri argues it can all be done economically, resulting in
12:36
Speaker 1: abundant electricity at prices competitive with energy from conventional technologies.
12:42
Speaker 1: The open question is whether existing technologies anchored to the
12:46
Speaker 1: Earth will be quicker than any space-based invention to solve
12:51
Speaker 1: the economic and environmental challenges unleashed by a worldwide surge
12:55
Speaker 1: in energy demand. The cost of storing solar and wind
13:00
Speaker 1: energy in giant industrial-scale batteries continues to plunge, Lovins said.
13:06
Speaker 1: At the same time, the solar industry is working with
13:11
Speaker 1: communities on designs that are more efficient, less land-intensive, and
13:16
Speaker 1: built to integrate with agricultural operations rather than displace farmland.
13:23
Speaker 1: Lovins suspects advancements in the batteries that turn solar energy
13:27
Speaker 1: from an unpredictable, intermittent technology into one that can boast
13:31
Speaker 1: the reliability of coal or nuclear power could make space
13:35
Speaker 1: solar obsolete for creating energy on Earth before it even
13:39
Speaker 1: makes it into the mainstream. Like so many other advancements
13:43
Speaker 1: in energy, though, space solar is driven not just by
13:46
Speaker 1: cost and climate concerns. There is also the China factor.
13:51
Speaker 1: Beijing is rapidly scaling up its extraterrestrial solar energy industry,
13:58
Speaker 1: raising concern that this will become yet another crucial sector
14:02
Speaker 1: that was innovated here and then ceded to our rival.
14:06
Speaker 1: Such concerns are top of mind for the Trump administration,
14:09
Speaker 1: which a couple of weeks ago announced it would invest
14:11
Speaker 1: $ 12 million to accelerate product development at universities and space
14:16
Speaker 1: solar farms, or firms rather. President Donald Trump has branded
14:22
Speaker 1: solar power part of the scam of the century, along
14:25
Speaker 1: with wind power. But as China races ahead with technologies
14:29
Speaker 1: that harness the sun's power from space, the Department of
14:32
Speaker 1: Energy has declared the promise of near-constant power from space-based
14:37
Speaker 1: solar a development that could, quote, further the Trump administration's
14:41
Speaker 1: space superiority agenda, end quote. Now let's turn to BBC Wildlife.
14:50
Speaker 1: From September 21st, we have this story. It stretched a
14:55
Speaker 1: humongous 250 kilometers and blocked a mighty American river for
14:59
Speaker 1: 900 years. Then humans destroyed it, unleashing a disaster. Once
15:07
Speaker 1: upon a time, one of America's great rivers was completely
15:10
Speaker 1: blocked by fallen trees. But this wasn't just a minor obstruction.
15:15
Speaker 1: The log jam was at least 250 kilometers long and
15:18
Speaker 1: lasted an incredible 900 years. It was known as the
15:23
Speaker 1: Great Raft, and it posed a challenge to pioneers and
15:27
Speaker 1: politicians in North America. But when it was finally removed
15:31
Speaker 1: in the 19th century, the unintended consequences were drastic and
15:35
Speaker 1: are still being paid for today, not least by the
15:39
Speaker 1: native people who had learned to live with the Great
15:41
Speaker 1: Raft and depend on it for their livelihoods. The Great
15:44
Speaker 1: Raft formed on the Red River, which was historically a
15:48
Speaker 1: tributary of the mighty Mississippi River. It was an incredibly dense,
15:52
Speaker 1: intricately entangled mass of timber, including cottonwood, cypress, and cedar,
15:59
Speaker 1: and other debris many meters deep that blocked the entire river,
16:04
Speaker 1: creating a massive natural dam. Though the older organic matter
16:09
Speaker 1: at the downstream end of the raft would decay and disintegrate,
16:13
Speaker 1: the entire structure was constantly replenished at a faster rate
16:17
Speaker 1: by fresh material arriving at the top end. Historical and
16:21
Speaker 1: geological evidence suggests that the Great Raft began forming around
16:26
Speaker 1: 1100 to 1200 AD, around the time of the Crusades.
16:30
Speaker 1: It may have begun due to an avulsion, a sudden
16:34
Speaker 1: change in the river's course due to climate change. This
16:38
Speaker 1: caused uprooted trees and chunks of riverbank to fall into
16:41
Speaker 1: the river and become the raft's building blocks. Over time,
16:45
Speaker 1: the raft became so dense it was possible to walk
16:48
Speaker 1: across it in any direction without getting your feet wet.
16:52
Speaker 1: The dam effect caused water levels to rise and silt
16:57
Speaker 1: to build up above and around the raft, creating raised riverbanks,
17:02
Speaker 1: slow-moving creeks and streams called bayous, and Cato Lake and
17:08
Speaker 1: Cross Lake, collectively the Great Raft Lakes. Instead of a
17:14
Speaker 1: single course, the river became a braided web of channels
17:18
Speaker 1: with vegetated islands. All of this created refuges for insects, amphibians,
17:25
Speaker 1: and fish, especially salmon. It was also home to innumerable
17:29
Speaker 1: wetland birds. For the native Cato people, the raft was
17:34
Speaker 1: viewed as a positive living entity. that had a huge
17:37
Speaker 1: impact on their lives. They lived by its rhythms and
17:41
Speaker 1: could navigate pathways through it. They also understood its role
17:45
Speaker 1: in flooding land and replenishing natural soil fertility for their
17:49
Speaker 1: crops of squash, corn, and beans. Much of what we
17:53
Speaker 1: know of the raft's early history comes from its significance
17:57
Speaker 1: in the Cato's oral history. The dam was viewed less
18:02
Speaker 1: favorably by European explorers and settlers. In 1691, centuries before
18:08
Speaker 1: American independence, the Spanish governor of Texas, Domingo Terán de
18:14
Speaker 1: los Ríos, was among the first to report on the
18:17
Speaker 1: log jam as a barrier to exploration and trade. French
18:22
Speaker 1: explorer Bernard de la Harpe led an expedition up the
18:26
Speaker 1: Red River in 1718 and also noted the presence of
18:29
Speaker 1: the raft and the difficulties it posed By the early
18:34
Speaker 1: 19th century, the raft had become a pressing national issue
18:38
Speaker 1: for the new United States, where rivers were vital arteries
18:42
Speaker 1: for development and colonization. President Thomas Jefferson dispatched explorers to
18:48
Speaker 1: report on the logjam, but it wasn't until the 1830s
18:51
Speaker 1: that something was done. Visionary river engineer Captain Henry Miller
18:57
Speaker 1: Shreve was tasked with improving navigation, and despite delays in funding,
19:04
Speaker 1: began work in 1833. To remove the log jam, he
19:08
Speaker 1: invented the snag boat, a powerful, double-hulled, steam-powered vessel with
19:15
Speaker 1: massive lifting apparatus in its bow like a huge metal jaw.
19:20
Speaker 1: Dubbed Uncle Sam's Tooth Pullers, the snag boats worked at
19:25
Speaker 1: the bottom end of the log jam, and by 1838,
19:29
Speaker 1: had removed much of the raft from the lower part
19:32
Speaker 1: of the river. It was hard, grim work, and Miller's
19:37
Speaker 1: team of 150 men were decimated by malaria, dysentery, and
19:43
Speaker 1: yellow fever. The town of Shreveport grew up around this
19:48
Speaker 1: time as a base for the work. Despite Shreve's success,
19:54
Speaker 1: Congress failed to fund ongoing maintenance, and within a few years,
19:58
Speaker 1: the log jam in the upper river had grown considerably.
20:01
Speaker 1: It became known as the Second Great Raft and was
20:04
Speaker 1: only removed in the 1870s by workers led by Lieutenant
20:09
Speaker 1: Eugene Woodruff, who deployed a new technology, dynamite. Woodruff's work
20:15
Speaker 1: was decisive and the Red River became fully navigable, but
20:19
Speaker 1: the unforeseen consequences were dramatic and costly. Firstly, the loss
20:24
Speaker 1: of the Great Raft deprived the Cato people of their
20:27
Speaker 1: livelihood and many settlements were abandoned. The Great Raft lakes
20:32
Speaker 1: shrank and the communities that had built up around them,
20:35
Speaker 1: including Jefferson, Texas, were no longer economically viable. Vast, intricate,
20:42
Speaker 1: wildlife-rich wetlands were lost. Worse still, the massive increase in
20:48
Speaker 1: overall water flow from the Red River to the Mississippi
20:51
Speaker 1: meant that the Atchafalela River, which acts as an outflow
20:57
Speaker 1: of the Mississippi and an aquatic shortcut to the Gulf
21:00
Speaker 1: of Mexico, began to receive more and more water. Soon
21:04
Speaker 1: it was feared the Great Mississippi would perform an avulsion,
21:08
Speaker 1: and change course to the Atchafalaya, with devastating consequences for
21:13
Speaker 1: millions living downstream, such as in the city of New Orleans.
21:18
Speaker 1: To combat this, Congress approved the building of the Old
21:21
Speaker 1: River Control System, the ORCS, in the 1950s, a massive
21:28
Speaker 1: series of dams and sluices which control the flow of
21:32
Speaker 1: water between the Atchafalaya and the Mississippis. maintaining a steady
21:37
Speaker 1: 30% to 70% division of water, respectively. But ORCS cost billions,
21:46
Speaker 1: and despite opening in 1963, continues to cost the American
21:50
Speaker 1: taxpayer a vast sum on a daily basis to battle
21:55
Speaker 1: the river's immense power. The removal of the Great Raft
21:59
Speaker 1: and the various negative outcomes reveals the expensive consequences of
22:03
Speaker 1: interfering with a complex natural system. More recently, scientists have
22:08
Speaker 1: found that rafts of debris and log jams were once
22:11
Speaker 1: common on many major river systems, including throughout Europe, and
22:16
Speaker 1: may be an entirely natural element of a river's life.
22:19
Speaker 1: While most of these are thought to have been removed
22:22
Speaker 1: by prehistoric communities, modern river management often includes adding woody
22:28
Speaker 1: debris to rivers to add ecological complexity and help control
22:33
Speaker 1: water flow and flooding. Now, USA Today has our next article,
22:41
Speaker 1: The Polar Vortex is Returning, What's Its Role for Winter?
22:45
Speaker 1: This is from September 23rd. The polar vortex is taking
22:49
Speaker 1: shape over the North Pole and it is starting the
22:52
Speaker 1: season stronger than normal based on the latest sub-seasonal forecasts
22:56
Speaker 1: from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. That might
23:01
Speaker 1: sound like a recipe for a brutally cold winter. It
23:04
Speaker 1: isn't that simple. The latest models show the zonal winds
23:09
Speaker 1: surrounding the polar vortex strengthening through October, while NOAA is
23:13
Speaker 1: forecasting a very strong El Nino developing in the tropical Pacific,
23:18
Speaker 1: and the two atmospheric patterns could play a role in
23:20
Speaker 1: how the winter unfolds. The polar vortex is a large-scale
23:25
Speaker 1: circulation of cold air and strong winds that forms high
23:29
Speaker 1: in the atmosphere over the Arctic each winter. When it
23:32
Speaker 1: is strong and stable, it can help keep the coldest
23:35
Speaker 1: Arctic air bottled up near the pole. When it weakens
23:38
Speaker 1: or becomes disrupted, some of that cold air can move
23:42
Speaker 1: south into the United States and other parts of the
23:44
Speaker 1: Northern Hemisphere. This year's vortex is strengthening in the stratosphere
23:49
Speaker 1: as temperatures fall over the North Pole. Forecasts show it
23:53
Speaker 1: becoming stronger than normal in late September before trending closer
23:58
Speaker 1: to typical levels in October. The biggest question for winter,
24:02
Speaker 1: is what happens after that. The polar vortex is a
24:05
Speaker 1: large-scale circulation of cold air and strong winds over the
24:09
Speaker 1: Arctic during the northern hemisphere's cold season. Most of the
24:14
Speaker 1: attention this time of year is on the stratospheric polar vortex,
24:18
Speaker 1: which forms high above the surface of the Arctic as
24:22
Speaker 1: the Arctic stratosphere cools. The circulation is strongest when the
24:27
Speaker 1: temperature difference between the cold polar region and warmer areas
24:31
Speaker 1: farther south large. Think of the vortex as part of
24:35
Speaker 1: the atmosphere system for containing Arctic air. When the circulation
24:40
Speaker 1: is strong and relatively stable, its winds can help keep
24:43
Speaker 1: cold air concentrated near the pole. When it becomes weaker,
24:47
Speaker 1: the atmosphere can become more favorable for Arctic air to
24:50
Speaker 1: move farther south. The effects are not automatic. A disrupted
24:54
Speaker 1: polar vortex does not mean every part of the U.S.
24:57
Speaker 1: will turn colder, and a strong vortex does not mean
25:00
Speaker 1: the country will stay warm. The polar vortex is getting
25:04
Speaker 1: stronger over the Arctic as northern hemisphere heads into fall.
25:08
Speaker 1: For now, that's not necessarily bad news for the U.S.
25:12
Speaker 1: A stronger, more stable polar vortex can help keep the
25:15
Speaker 1: Arctic's coldest air bottled up near the pole. The bigger
25:19
Speaker 1: winter question is whether that changes later in the season.
25:23
Speaker 1: The stratospheric polar vortex is developing normally for this time
25:27
Speaker 1: of year and currently somewhat stronger than average. Long-term forecasts
25:31
Speaker 1: show the vortex could weaken later in the winter, particularly
25:35
Speaker 1: around January and February. That potential shift is what meteorologists
25:40
Speaker 1: will be watching. When Arctic air meets moisture-rich storm systems,
25:47
Speaker 1: the combination can produce snowstorms and blizzards. This year, El
25:51
Speaker 1: Nino can help supply the moisture by strengthening the southern
25:54
Speaker 1: jet stream and steering more Pacific moisture into the U.S.,
26:00
Speaker 1: A stronger than normal polar vortex in September is not
26:03
Speaker 1: a warning that winter will be unusually cold. In fact,
26:08
Speaker 1: a strong stable vortex can help keep the coldest Arctic
26:11
Speaker 1: air farther north. The polar vortex naturally develops during late
26:17
Speaker 1: summer and fall as sunlight decreases over the Arctic. As
26:22
Speaker 1: that happens, stronger winds begin circulating around the polar region
26:25
Speaker 1: from west to east. These are called zonal winds, located
26:30
Speaker 1: about 10 to 30 miles above the North Pole, and
26:33
Speaker 1: they're one of the key measurements that meteorologists use to
26:36
Speaker 1: track the strength and organization of the vortex. Recent observations
26:41
Speaker 1: show the vortex strengthening as that seasonal cooling gets underway.
26:46
Speaker 1: NASA data analyzed in mid-September showed winds around 60 degrees
26:51
Speaker 1: north in the lower stratosphere running above their long-term averages
26:56
Speaker 1: for the date. The return and strengthening of those west
26:59
Speaker 1: to east winds are part of the normal seasonal development
27:02
Speaker 1: of the vortex. The latest European Center for Medium-Range Weather
27:07
Speaker 1: Forecasts shows the same general trend. In the latest forecast,
27:12
Speaker 1: the average winds strengthened through the fall, reaching roughly 30
27:17
Speaker 1: meters per second around December, before weakening later in the winter,
27:22
Speaker 1: where the forecast becomes more uncertain. By late January, the
27:26
Speaker 1: average falls to roughly 17 to 20 meters per second,
27:29
Speaker 1: and in the late winter, it hovers around 10 to
27:33
Speaker 1: 15 meters per second. Some individual forecasts become much weaker
27:37
Speaker 1: and even dip below zero, which would indicate the wind's
27:41
Speaker 1: reversing direction. A reversal of those winds can be associated
27:46
Speaker 1: with a sudden stratospheric warming, a major disruption of the
27:50
Speaker 1: polar vortex. For now, the important signal is that the
27:54
Speaker 1: vortex is strengthening as it normally does during the fall.
27:58
Speaker 1: The bigger question is whether it remains strong through winter
28:01
Speaker 1: and becomes significantly weaker or disrupted later in the season. Well,
28:06
Speaker 1: that's all for today's Diary of Science and Nature. Your
28:09
Speaker 1: reader was Kelly Taylor. Now stay tuned for further programming
28:13
Speaker 1: on Radio Eye.