Latest / The Morning Edition / ‘The world has changed’: Peter Hartcher on China’s extraordinary missile test

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‘The world has changed’: Peter Hartcher on China’s extraordinary missile test · The Morning Edition

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  S1: Virginia Giuffre helped vanquish a prince and a millionaire.
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  S2: And I won't stop fighting. I will never be silenced.
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  S1: But one of her toughest battles was a very private one.
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  S3: It was the worst thing that could have happened to her.
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  S3: Her children were her life.
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  S1: Virginia, a podcast from the newsrooms of The age, The
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  S1: Sydney Morning Herald and WA today. Coming soon.
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  S4: China launched a rare ballistic missile from a nuclear powered
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  S4: submarine into the Pacific on Monday. It wasn't just putting
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  S4: the countries nearby like Australia on notice. It was making
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  S4: a statement that has changed the world, according to international
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  S4: and political editor Peter Hartcher. I'm Samantha Salinger Morris, and
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  S4: you're listening to The Morning Edition from The Age and
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  S4: The Sydney Morning Herald today, Peter Hartcher joins me to
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  S4: discuss why this missile launch differs so greatly from the
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  S4: one that China launched two years ago, and why we
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  S4: have yet to hear from Donald Trump. Welcome back, Peter,
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  S4: to the podcast.
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  S5: Pleasure, Samantha.
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  S4: Okay. So tell us about this missile that China launched
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  S4: on Monday. You know, why did it anger so many countries?
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  S5: Different countries, different reasons. It's an intercontinental ballistic missile capable
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  S5: of reaching across the entire Pacific, capable of reaching Australia.
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  S5: And depending on which precise model capable of reaching parts
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  S5: of the US as well. But it landed in the
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  S5: middle of what's been known for decades now as the
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  S5: Pacific Nuclear Free Zone, which is a pact signed by
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  S5: all the Pacific Island countries, plus Australia and New Zealand.
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  S5: And it's a gesture of utter contempt for the nuclear
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  S5: free zone because this is a nuclear capable ICBM. It's
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  S5: the second leg of the nuclear tripod that nuclear superpowers deploy.
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  S5: So two years ago, China tested a land based ICBM.
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  S5: Now it's tested a submarine launched sea based ICBM. The
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  S5: third and final will be when it tests an airborne ICBM.
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  S5: And that will complete the nuclear triad. And that will
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  S5: finally that will put it on a full and equal
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  S5: footing with the US in nuclear war. So for that reason,
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  S5: it has been described by the State Department as an
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  S5: act of nuclear proliferation. This isn't just a missile test.
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  S5: The State Department says that by testing this in international
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  S5: waters deep into the Pacific, it overflew Guam, which is
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  S5: a huge US base. It's the principal US base in
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  S5: the Pacific. This side of Hawaii and landing in the
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  S5: middle of the Pacific in the middle of the smaller
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  S5: Pacific island states. The US says it's an act of
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  S5: nuclear proliferation. More than that, I would call it a
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  S5: challenge to US hegemony in the Pacific, a direct challenge
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  S5: to the US and a test for Donald Trump. For
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  S5: all the Pacific island countries that have, you know, been
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  S5: proud of this nuclear free zone. It's incredibly insulting. It's
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  S5: a total act of disrespect and contempt for every country
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  S5: in the region. And they're the reasons why it's upset
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  S5: so many countries from the tiniest from, you know, Nauru, Tuvalu,
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  S5: the Solomon Islands, all the way up to the US.
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  S4: Okay. So I want to just clue in listeners to
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  S4: something that you said right before we started recording. You
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  S4: said the world changed. So is this why is this
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  S4: why just based on what you've just said, is that
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  S4: how the world changed or is it something even larger?
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  S5: XI Jinping gave a speech in 2012. He'd just been
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  S5: appointed as general secretary of the Communist Party. He wasn't
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  S5: yet even the president. But he gave a speech which
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  S5: was kept secret for six years and eventually published. And
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  S5: you can see why it was kept secret. Although the
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  S5: world kind of failed to take him at his word.
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  S5: But if you if you, uh, take him at his word,
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  S5: he said, there, I will put China in a position
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  S5: to take the initiative and establish dominance, to take the
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  S5: initiative and establish dominance. That was 14 years ago. We
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  S5: now see that being realized. This is the world changing
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  S5: because it is China establishing, asserting dominance over the world's
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  S5: largest ocean, an ocean which until now has been unchallenged.
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  S5: The unchallenged hegemon has been the United States. And now
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  S5: China is saying, no, this is our zone. Do you
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  S5: want to do something about it? And that's why it's
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  S5: a test for Donald Trump. It is a direct challenge
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  S5: to the power and position of the US on the planet,
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  S5: and the US's ability to operate freely in the region,
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  S5: which is the center of the global economy, the Asian economy,
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  S5: the Indo-Pacific economy is decisively the biggest and fastest growing
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  S5: part of the global economy and the center of global
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  S5: population as well. So one of the reasons that US
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  S5: strategic thinkers put a priority on trying to match China
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  S5: and preempt any Chinese expansionism, was that a country, any
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  S5: country that can command the Asian economy commands the resources
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  S5: to control the planet.
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  S4: Wow.
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  S5: That's why the US has, until this moment, jealously guarded
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  S5: its hegemony in the region and sought to block Chinese expansionism.
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  S5: Now that is directly under challenge. And what we see
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  S5: from XI Jinping, what we see from Beijing now is
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  S5: this challenge to US dominance and a statement of China's
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  S5: own assertion of dominance.
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  S4: Okay, well, this is what I really want to ask you,
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  S4: because your commentary and the reading that I've been doing
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  S4: since this happened, of course, on Monday has left me
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  S4: a bit flabbergasted as to why Donald Trump hasn't responded yet,
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  S4: at least as when we're recording this on Wednesday morning.
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  S4: Because I'm no submarine expert, I'm no missile expert. I think,
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  S4: as you know, Hartcher. But my understanding.
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  S5: Neither am I. I mean, full disclosure here.
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  S4: Yeah, exactly. Exactly. But even the minimal reading that I've
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  S4: done would suggest that this launch that China just did
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  S4: is markedly different to the one that it did on
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  S4: land two years ago, because this one gives China the
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  S4: ability to retaliate massively to an enemy's surprise. It actually
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  S4: gives it second strike capability. Right? Which, as I understand it,
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  S4: if if it's sort of even if its country is
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  S4: sort of like largely destroyed, it can retaliate. Yes. Right.
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  S4: So that's massive. I would have thought as a layperson,
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  S4: this is something that Donald Trump would have some feelings
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  S4: about or perhaps those around him. So can you help
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  S4: us make sense of the fact that Donald Trump, as
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  S4: we record this, has not yet responded?
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  S5: Well, you're absolutely right. The reason that great powers have
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  S5: the ability to have nuclear powered submarines, and China is
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  S5: turning out to a year. Two new nuclear powered submarines
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  S5: per year carrying nuclear missiles, is so that if their
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  S5: country is attacked and caught unawares and land based, and
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  S5: perhaps even their air based nuclear capability is destroyed in
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  S5: a first strike by whomever, then you have you have
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  S5: a submarine capability, which is very hard to find deep
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  S5: under the ocean, which is capable of retaliating. And that
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  S5: uncertainty is designed to stay the hand of an aggressor.
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  S5: And by giving the country a second strike capability, a
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  S5: retaliatory ability to wipe out the aggressor. So you're right,
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  S5: it is a it is a big development. It's nuclear
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  S5: survivability is now established. Why has Donald Trump not responded?
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  S5: Good question. Perhaps he's just distracted. But look at what
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  S5: he's distracted by.
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  S4: The World Cup.
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  S5: Well there's the World Cup. He's prepared to call FIFA
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  S5: but he's not prepared to call XI Jinping apparently. But
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  S5: look he's been busy at the NATO summit as well
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  S5: in Europe now. Samantha, this is the world turned on
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  S5: its head. Here you have a US president going to NATO,
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  S5: withdrawing troops from NATO, threatening and blustering in NATO against
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  S5: US allies, while at the same time having so far
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  S5: nothing to say about an ICBM launched by China into
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  S5: the center of the US zone of hegemony and a
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  S5: direct challenge to US power and dominance. This is a
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  S5: world turned on its head. Donald Trump has been going
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  S5: very soft, very easy on China and XI Jinping. And
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  S5: the defining moment, I think, in that relationship came last year,
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  S5: when Donald Trump kept ramping up tariffs on China until
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  S5: they got to 145%. And at that point, XI Jinping said, well,
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  S5: we'll see you, and we'll raise, you know, more rare
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  S5: earth supplies for your economy. Donald Trump only lasted a
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  S5: couple of days, and then he completely caved in. And
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  S5: since then, no more threats against China, only flattery of
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  S5: XI Jinping or what a great man he is, and
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  S5: a hero and all the rest. And bilateral visits. So
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  S5: that confrontation over economic power seems to have persuaded Donald
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  S5: Trump that he needs to back off. The other critical
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  S5: way in which Trump has really gone soft on China
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  S5: is on Taiwan policy. He's never shown any real great
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  S5: interest in defending Taiwan against China's ambitions to take it over.
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  S5: But in recent months, that's even disappeared from formal statements
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  S5: of US defense strategy and policy in a way that
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  S5: it never has. Plus, the fact that he continues to
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  S5: talk about Taiwan. As you know, a war in Taiwan
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  S5: is the last thing we need. He said a few
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  S5: weeks ago, a war 9500 miles away. He said a
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  S5: few weeks ago, earlier, he he'd compared Taiwan to the
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  S5: tip of his pen. He said, this is this is Taiwan.
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  S5: And this indicating the resolute desk in the Oval Office
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  S5: is China. In other words, you know, a trifling. It's
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  S5: not important. Constantly accusing Taiwan of having stolen the US
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  S5: semiconductor industry and to which his former vice president, Mike pence,
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  S5: had the perfect riposte. When Trump complained about it being
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  S5: so far away, he said, it's 100 miles from China
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  S5: and 10,000 miles from America. And Mike pence. His response,
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  S5: in a piece in The Washington Post was what is
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  S5: distance to a global superpower? So now what we see
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  S5: is China is saying, America, you are no longer a
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  S5: global superpower. We are claiming the Pacific Ocean. We are
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  S5: claiming the Indo-Pacific. We are claiming the dominant global economy.
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  S5: What are you going to do about it?
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  S4: After the break.
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  S5: This is a statement of intention that this is China's
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  S5: zone of control, and that countries will be able to
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  S5: operate only at China's pleasure.
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  S4: Okay, so if that's the sort of macro picture, if
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  S4: you will, I guess, what sort of risk or threat
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  S4: does this pose to the countries that are in this region?
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  S4: You know, to, of course, Taiwan. It sounds like that's
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  S4: a signal from China to Taiwan saying this is imminent.
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  S4: Like we really are going to strike. I don't know
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  S4: if that is what it is, but what what greater risk,
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  S4: I guess, is there for those countries that are that
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  S4: are close to the zone?
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  S5: The level of risk has been rising for some time. First,
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  S5: because of questions about Trump's commitment to allies anywhere. Second,
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  S5: because of his distraction with the Iran war, where it's
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  S5: still not settled, where Iran is still controlling some oil
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  S5: supplies in and out of the Gulf. Iran has discovered
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  S5: that it has this power to control oil flows out
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  S5: of the Gulf of Hormuz, and it doesn't want to
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  S5: give it up. So he's given Iran that opportunity. They're
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  S5: exercising it. He is at a loss about what to
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  S5: do about it, except to prolong the antagonisms. In the
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  S5: process of that war, he's drastically run down US and
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  S5: allied missile stocks and anti-air and anti-missile defense systems in
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  S5: the Indo-Pacific, including in Japan and South Korea. So the
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  S5: level of risk for this region has been rising continuously
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  S5: under Donald Trump's presidency, and the risk to Taiwan has
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  S5: been rising. The Chinese Communist Party is has been rehearsing blockades,
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  S5: tightening its blockade rehearsals year by year, month by month.
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  S5: Now with this ICBM test. It's also effectively a warning
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  S5: shot to the US that if we decide to move
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  S5: on Taiwan and you want to get involved. We now
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  S5: have this demonstrated capability, which is which is new and
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  S5: you're going to have to reckon with. So what does
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  S5: that mean for countries like ours. New Zealand right the
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  S5: way up from from Australia through the Pacific Islands, Papua
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  S5: New Guinea, Solomons through to Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam. Uh.
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  S5: South Korea, we're talking a huge slice of of the
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  S5: globe and of course, the South China Sea, uh, Malacca Straits,
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  S5: Sunda Straits. I mean, if people got worked up about
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  S5: the Strait of Hormuz, the commercial shipping through through the
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  S5: South China Sea and the Straits to the south, it's
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  S5: the dominant global commercial lifeline for the world economy. So
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  S5: for all of those countries, for that commercial shipping artery.
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  S5: This is a statement of intention, that this is China's
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  S5: zone of control. Sphere of influence, sphere of hegemony. Call
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  S5: it what you choose. And that countries will be able
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  S5: to operate only at China's pleasure.
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  S4: So I guess the next question for you, Hartcher, is
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  S4: how is Australia responding? We know we heard from Foreign
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  S4: Minister Penny Wong. I believe she made a comment that,
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  S4: you know, this is a destabilizing action, but surely this
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  S4: would put our Aukus arrangement under question. Perhaps.
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  S5: So the Australian response, the good news is that the
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  S5: pretence ended. Remember, this government has said that it's. Its
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  S5: policy with China is a stabilisation policy. Anthony Albanese discarded
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  S5: that and spoke the obvious truth that this is a
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  S5: destabilising act. Penny Wong said the same thing. So that's
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  S5: the end of a pretence that this is a stabilised Relationship.
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  S5: You've heard me say before, Samantha. From the time they
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  S5: said it, I said, that's like declaring, putting a picnic
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  S5: table on top of a live volcano and saying, oh, look,
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  S5: we've stabilized the volcano. And just sitting there, uh, the
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  S5: volcano gets a say too. And it was only ever
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  S5: going to be stable until the day when Beijing decided
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  S5: to destabilize. And the recognition from the Australian government is
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  S5: the beginning of the end of the pretence that it
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  S5: can be stabilised. It's also from our Chinese friends, an
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  S5: eloquent statement of why we need a better quality submarine capability.
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  S5: Our current submarines, the six Collins class, were all supposed
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  S5: to have been retired by now, having their lives extended indefinitely.
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  S5: Limping around at any one time is lucky if there's
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  S5: more than one of them that's even usable in the water.
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  S5: In the meantime, because this country spent decades faffing around
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  S5: pretending to buy submarines. Marines pretending, you know. Remember, Abbott
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  S5: pretended to buy them from the Japanese. And then Turnbull
• 16:43
  S5: pretended to buy them from the French. And then finally,
• 16:46
  S5: we get around to the current deal, which is now
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  S5: five years old. Yeah. A bipartisan deal put together by
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  S5: by Morrison. We are now in a very difficult position
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  S5: waiting for new submarines, while Chinese future overlords are producing
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  S5: new ones at a great rate.
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  S4: Okay, well, this leads me to my last question, Peter.
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  S4: Does this missile launch of China on Monday? Does it
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  S4: sort of signal or foreshadow the next technology that China
• 17:16
  S4: is likely to be working on that might pose different problems.
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  S5: The Chinese state has been advancing on all fronts with technology,
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  S5: civilian and military. In fact, they have an official policy
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  S5: civil military fusion. There is no clear distinction between civilian
• 17:36
  S5: and military technologies in China. They're all harnessed for the
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  S5: state's pleasure. And as you know, China is racing the
• 17:45
  S5: US constantly for technological supremacy in every realm, most prominently
• 17:51
  S5: recently in AI, where Chinese AI, according to the best
• 17:57
  S5: Western experts, we can divine. China is perhaps a few
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  S5: months behind the US with the absolute cutting edge of
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  S5: the most capable AI capability, but it is providing it.
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  S5: It is selling the tokens at one sixth the cost
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  S5: and is determined to be the global dominant player. And
• 18:18
  S5: by the way, the models it's supplying, corporations are open
• 18:22
  S5: so that they can modify them at their own will.
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  S5: The US companies aren't doing that. So it's presenting itself
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  S5: as a as a more attractive AI partner at the
• 18:32
  S5: same time that it's developing every kind of Military technology.
• 18:37
  S5: And of course, those fuse if you're using conventional military
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  S5: hardware enhanced by AI. It's a pretty nice, um, meeting
• 18:45
  S5: of technologies. So they're working on everything. Um, and depending
• 18:50
  S5: on which particular missile this was tested by the People's
• 18:55
  S5: Liberation Army Navy. Whether it's the JL or JL three,
• 18:59
  S5: it has a range of either 7000km or up to 11,000km.
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  S5: But you can be sure of of this, the next
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  S5: model of ICBM they produce will have an even longer
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  S5: range and even greater capability.
• 19:14
  S4: Wow. Well, thank you so much for your time.
• 19:17
  S5: Always a pleasure.
• 19:25
  S4: In other news today, rents have jumped across Australia in
• 19:28
  S4: the last quarter, with Sydney house rents now at a
• 19:31
  S4: record high of $850 a week, Melbourne at 600 a
• 19:35
  S4: week and Brisbane at 700 a week. The nation's outgoing
• 19:39
  S4: defence chief, David Johnston, has called for China to be
• 19:42
  S4: less secretive about its increasingly assertive military activities, as he
• 19:47
  S4: warns the Australian Defence Force must spend taxpayer money more wisely.
• 19:52
  S4: And if you want the definitive list of the best
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  S4: spots to stay warm and toasty this winter. Good food
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  S4: has tracked down your next perfect winter restaurant. You can
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