Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NBA Quick Hit | January 13, 2024 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process
Transcript
- All system's going clear. We lift up. What's up everyone? Rio here? Let me bring my microphone closer. I'm going to be breaking down this injury riddled seven games. Saturday Slate have a lot of fun stuff going on this weekend in the sports world. Got NFL Playoff football today. MMA is back for the first cart of the year. Got NHL going on every night, obviously, NBA going on every night. We got you covered here over at Shiba Nation. If you are a subscriber, we'll have all of our content up for every sport, like to get up nice and early. Got Title and Marley back in the MMA streets Tambo, who've been Title in the NFL, NIDS and NHL. He's been crushing it over here, and then obviously myself for NBA. And if you are not a subscriber, I'll just ask you guys politely to hit the like and subscribe button. Definitely helps us out a ton allows us to continue to bring you guys free content on our YouTube channel every day. But without further ado, let's get into it. First game on the Slate got Houston and Boston going up against each other two twenty seven over under. Boston favored by fifteen. I kind of want to make this slate a little bit easier. There's a ton of injury stuff in the later games, so I don't really want to lock myself into too many spots early. So this game is kind of looking like a faith for me. Obviously, Boston favored by double digit's really good chance this one blows out Rockets on the back end of a back to back as well. They'll begin Dylan Brooks back tonight, which would definitely help up their defense. But yeah, these are just two top defenses, too slow paced teams. I guess if you're looking at anybody on the Rocket side, the Celtics are a bit of a three point funnel, So you know, guys like Fred Van Fleet, Javari Smith, Jalen Green make a little bit of sense. But I'm really just kind of looking to fade this game and starting my slate at four point thirty. That's kind of how I'm going to be handling it. But yeah, so'll just make it easier. Let's go to the next game on the slate, Washington versus Atlanta two fifteen and a half over under, with Atlanta favored by eight and a half. When I initially started write up this game. We didn't have any sort of injury news, but obviously Trey or de Jante Murray, I should say, has been in the involvement with you know, the trade talks for the last couple of weeks or so. He got downgrade to questionable with a hamstring injury. Never really been a guy that has a history of hamstring injury, so this is obviously trade related. It would not be surprised to see him moved in the next couple of days. But so yeah, we'll just have to wait and see if he plays. If he plays, I would expect him be a full go. He's played pretty heavy minutes last couple of games, has been playing really well as well lately. But yeah, this game should be a lot of fun. Should be some fantasy fireworks in this one. These are two of the worst defense in the league facing off. Hawks are bottom four in overall defensive raiding, bottom three, rim defense, bottom eight three point defense, bottom three transition defense. Wizards are dead last and defensive rating dead last and in rim defense bottom nine transition. They're allowing the most points off of offensive rebounds as well, and they're really just getting killed in every defensive category. That you can name Sart the Wizards, Kuzma is in a pretty good spot here. Definitely have interested in him. In a game stack, He's gonna see a lot of Sadik Ban Jalen Johnson on defense, and those guys just have not shown any interest in playing defense at all this season. Hawks are second worst DVP to power forwards, So definitely have a lot of interest in Kyle Kuzma. He has a ton of upside at eight K. Danny Avia a little bit less interest in him when he's you know, six point five K. The minutes are a little a little shaky with him. They have a pretty deep bench. Haven't really been looking to get him huge minutes, but he could definitely crash if he gets like thirty to thirty two minutes. So a little bit of interest in him. I like some of these other guys priced beneath him a little bit more, though one of those guys is definitely not Jordan Poole. I mean, he's been playing a lot better lately. Got to fifty DK points last time out in thirty four minutes, put up twenty eight, four and seven. He scored twenty four plus points in back to back games. Maybe he's turned a corner, but he's just shot so unefficiently this year, or inefficiently, they should say, yeah, he just looks terrible. I'll be looking to get away from him, and I think he would come in with a good amount of ownership, actually only seeing around five percent on him, so maybe a little bit of interest in him, a little bit more than I initially thought. I'd like Tys Jones six point one K. The issue is, I mean, he's been one of the better players for this terrible Wizards team all season long, good matchup two versus Trey Young and this Hawks defense at his bottom six to in DVPZA point guards. There's just so many strong point guard spots tonight that I just don't only want to lock in a six point one K Tys Jones with really not that big of upside. He did have a sixty point a few games ago with a triple double, but I think that his median outcome is not going to be that high. It might even be below his current projection of thirty two points, so I'd probably look to go elsewhere. I do love this spot for Daniel Gafford, though he shouldn't have to worry about losing minutes at all. This Hawks scene doesn't really run out too many small ball lineups, and it's just a great matchup for him. Bottom three room defense, bottom five five DVP to the center position. So I have a ton of interest in him. That's mainly it though, on the Washington side. On the Atlanta side, yeah, Trey Young, he's been he's been really bad lately, just shooting it really poorly. He had a head stretch where he was playing really well, had the big stretch of thirty points and ten plus assists in like seven six or seven games, whatever it was. But he hasn't topped fifty two DraftKings points in five straight games and has less than fifty two and seven of his last eight games. He does have the seventy point upside, and this is obviously a really great matchup versus the worst defense in the league. Wizards are dead last DVP to point guards on the season as well, so it's a great spot for him. Would love it if de Johncey Murray were to be out because he would just see a ton of usage and in a great matchup, he would have probably one of the higher upsides on the slate. If Dejontay is in, though, I would kind of be okay getting away from him. Let me get the dogs and that hopefully they can keep quiet. But yeah, I would be looking to get away from him if Trey, If de Johntay Murray is in, and if de Jontay is in, he'd be my preferred option on the Hawks side, especially getting a huge discount off of Trey Young. And he's got somewhat of a safer floor in terms of his price tag and the fantasy floor, so I love the spot for him. He smashed in a similar matchup versus the Pacers last night, got to almost fifty DK points, so definitely good spot for him if he plays. I love for Jenden Johnson here as well. Should be able to bounce back here. I think that the field may be a little bit scared off of the seven point four k price tag, but I definitely am not. These are the type of matchups that I love to play Jayden Johnson in up tempo, transition type scoring, and that's exactly where Jaden Johnson thrives. On top of that, he's been adding a little bit more playmaking to his game. He's got multiple games of three to four assists, and he even has a seven game seven assist game two games ago, so really good spot for him versus a terrible rim defense. I definitely like Jayden Johnson, not really looking at Bogdanovich unless de Jounty Murray's out. If Murray's out, definitely have interest in him. Clint Capella should be in a really good spot here. He should definitely smash going against Daniel Gafford, which is a spot that we'd love to fire up centers against Wizards dead last in the DVP to to center position as well. It should be rested. He only played twenty two minutes last night, so a good spot for him. A little bit of interest in Sadik Bay as well. Been playing pretty heavy minutes. Two of his last three games gone above thirty seven minutes, so he's in a pretty so spot here as well. Really good game to attack though, a lot of interest up and down the board on both sides. Next game got the New York Knicks taken on the Memphis Grizzlies, with the Knicks favored by eight. A lot of injury news in this game as well. Start on the Knick side, we got Jaylen Brunson listed questionable. If he were to miss, then Miles McBride would probably start, and he would be a really solid value option. Almost been priced three point three. K been shooting the ball really well lately. It's a good matchup for three point shooters against this Grizzlies team. Obviously that would give you know, guys like Julius Randall and Stevencenzo Hardenstein, Oginnnobi, they would all see a bigger usage bump. But there's just not that big enough of a sample size this season to really know who's going to benefit the most, so kind of just speculating. And then on the Memphis side, Desmond Band, John Morant, Marcus Smarter all out, Jared Jackson Junior. I believe was listened Delft. I think he got ruled out. So we're going to see a starting lineup of Jacob Gilliard, Luke Kennard, Vince Williams, David Roddy, and Xavier Helman is what I'm seeing projected. I'll start with the Nick side. Yeah, Joyce Randall isn't a great spot here. The Grizzlies are, you know, they lost one of their best room defenders, Jeron Jackson Junior. They waived Bismack Biambo, so they'd kind of been more vulnerable to interior scoring lately. If Brunson is out, Randall's gonna have a huge offensive workload, so he would be a really good spind up option almost nine K. I think it's a pretty fair price tag for him, and I think that if if Brunson is in, I'd kind of just look elsewhere, especially the secondary guys. I don't think that they would be very much in play. I'd be okay getting to Randall, maybe to Harnstein a little bit if Brunson was in, but if he's out, then yeah, I would like definitely like Moles McBride, I don't think we really need to get there On Devincenzo, he'd probably project really well, but there's a lot of other value spots later in this in the slate that I don't really want to lock up a spot this early, so I would probably take an underweight stance on him, and then on the Grizzly side, I mean, you just you can kind of pick and choose whoever you want to play. You can really I think you could probably fit in five to six of these guys pretty easily. I think the way that I would approach it, though. I just want to attack this side of the grizzly side of the game at the spots where they're the most most thin, which would be the center position, in the point guard position. So give me guys like Xavier Tillman, Jacob Gilliard, even David Roddy, I think he's gonna play a lot of a lot of minutes tonight, could play a lot of backup center minutes as well. Those be the three main guys I would look to. I think Luke Kennard at chalk five K just shooting really shooting dependent is a pretty easy fade for me as well. Kind of the same with Zay Year. He's gonna have to play really heavy minutes, but he's almost five K. I'd much rather just get down to David Roddy four point two k, Jacob Gilliard four point one K, and then Tillman's only five point four k. He's a little bit safer because he's got the rebounding flour. So I like those three guys the most. Moving over to the Orlando versus Oklahoma City game, got two thirty one over under Okay see favorite by eleven Yeah, okay See's just rolling right now. They're the league's fourth best offense, fifth best defense. They have the second highest net rating in the league as well. Magic had been one of the better defenses in the league, ranking third overall. But yeah, big injury spot here as well. For the Magic, they this has kind of been the theme for them for the last week or so. They've been been without you know, a mixture of Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter, Markel Foltz, Gary Harris, Joe Ingles, even Jonathan Isaac has missed a few amount of games, but he'll be back tonight. But those other five five guys will be out tonight. Yeah, so we'll see Paulow gonna be point Polow again. He's gonna get all the uses that he can handle as as long as the Magic team are with able to keep this game close and then being as thin as they are, his role has just been elite from a ball Hanley perspective. He's kind of reached the Luka Doncic Nikolae Okach level of in terms of usage and touch time, things like that. Tough matchup versus okay See, I'm going to see a lot of Jalen Williams, and he's a really solid defender. Okay see, does a really good job protecting the pain as well. But you know, Paulo has a has that triple double upside. He's done it then once against Denver, which is you know, that's a pretty tough matchup, got to seventy. So I don't think that he's the craziest spend up option going to see very little ownership I would imagine tonight as well. Outside of him, I don't really like anything else on this magic side. I think Moe Wagner isn't play the brother of Franz. He's seen his minutes consistently reached thirty in the past four games, uh and should see that again with Wendell Carter ruled out here scored DK points of thirty eight, thirty eight, twenty six point three, and forty three point eight over the last four games. So I think that he's a He's a pretty fine option with a good amount of upside outside that, though not really much else stands out on this magic side on okay see, yeah, it's pretty much just gonna be sjair Bus here. He's always in play. You know, he's gotta score you forty real points to kind of start to kill you. But ten point two k is a pretty reasonable price sect for him. He's just been on a tear lately scoring, but he's got to compete with guys like Trey Young, with Yannis, with Kyrie for a little bit cheaper. Ownership is gonna be really low on him, I would imagine, but I think I prefer all those other guys a little bit more. That's pretty much it for this game. Next one, go and see Warriors taken on the Milwaukee Bucks two forty six over under Milwaukee favored by ten and a half. Warriors is gonna be thin here as well theme of the slate. They're gonna be without Steph Curry, who's out for rest purposes already missing Draymond Green, CP three, Moses Moody, and Gary Payton. Bucks are gonna come to s game full strength, and this one is a little bit easier to break down. I think we'll see a heavy amount of ownership on guys like Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Darya Saritch, even Kevon Looney, and I think this could be a pretty good spot to fade those guys. I mean, with just a such a big spread, I would imagine them coming off of back to back that those the older guys would be the first ones to be limited if this game were to be blowout as all. So yeah, I mean I would much rather look to Brandon Pajemski, who's six point four k, gonna get no ownership. He should be starting tonight, Gonna have the chance to run the point guard role. He's shown a pretty solid ceiling too, with the rebounding numbers and with him being able to get all the ball handling and you know more more assist. In this game, I think that there's a chance he could floor with a triple double. It might be a hot take, but I mean the matchup is really good. We always like to attack this Bucks team with guards with a you know, Millie Beasley and Damian Lillard out there. They're just awful defenders right now at this point in their career, So Pods is really intriguing to me. And then I mean, I really just want to look to like the younger guys, So Jonathan kaminga Tray Jackson Davis, I think those guys could get extended run. I think they should be pretty safe to play blowout. Did see this team get blown out by the Pelicans when they were a little bit more healthy. Brandon Pajemski, Johnathan Kaminga, and Tray Jackson Davis were all in that blowout lineups. I think those would be the guys I'll be looking to. They've all shown pretty good upside to their respective price SAgs. I think Kamiga probably has the lowest ceiling in terms of his price SAG. I think Trace Jackson Davis is pretty solid. He's shown forty plus point upside multiple times this season in worse spots, so I think that he's interesting. But yeah, I'm just gonna be looking to get away from the chalk. On the the Warriors side, I think that it could go really badly for guys like Clay, for guys like guys like Looney. I think Sarch is a little bit a little bit safer four point seven K. He's got a he started last game. He's gonna see his assist numbers tick up a lot as well, so I think that he's probably okay. But yeah, guys like Clay Wiggins, Kevon Looney kind of look to get away from them. Cray Joseph projecting really really well right now, going to see the backup point guard minutes. I think that he's totally fine three point two K. But if Jalen Brunson were to be ruled out, then I would much rather prefer Miles McBride, who should be starting and you know, same price tag. I think he's got better upside in a better matchup as well. And on the Milwaukee side, yeah, Giannis is the best spin up tonight, top spen. We should be able to get to him really easily and ownership is gonna flow. But yeah, this is a great spot for him. Not gonna overthink it. I think he's the top spin on the slate. Damian Lillard, I think that he's in play here as well. Showed signs of life last game in the blowout win over the Celtics. Went for the thirty three and a half DK points in twenty seven minutes, was on his way to a really big game. You know, had like eighteen DK points in the first quarter. I think that he's a totally fine option. Gonna be pretty contrarian with point guard being as strong as it is tonight, but I think that he's a fine option outside that though, don't really have much interest. I think that Middleton would probably be one of the first guys to have his minutes monitored in an uncompetitive game environment, and he's a little bit too expensive for the potential downside risk, and I guess Brook Lopez could remain your playerpool. But I thing I like Gafford and Capella in that Washing Atlanta game a little bit more. Next game, Chicago versus San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs will be without Victor Webbin Yama tonight, so it's gonna open up a ton of usage for guys like Devin Vessel, Calden Johnson. Would expect Dominic Barlow to probably get the start here, could be Sandro Bambu Kelshbili, but either way, those guys are gonna split those center minutes. Bulls are pretty much as healthy as they've been all season long, which makes them a little bit tougher to break down. I think all their price secs are pretty fair though. In the mid seven k's good matchup for all of them as well, So I'll to start with the Bull side with their I guess you can consider it a big four now with Levin, Kobe, White, Vuscevich and DeRozan. I probably just want to be a max tooth situation overall, and I have a slight lean to Levine and Kobe White. This is just a much better matchup for those guys. Levine has returned from his injury four games ago and seeing thirty five plus minutes in three straight games, flash the ceiling of sixty one point three DK points against Houston with thirteen rebounds and seven assists. The assist numbers have been really solid for him, back to back games of seven assists and yeah, great spot for him. I think he's got the highest ceiling on the Bulls. Spurs Or bottom three and DVP to shooting guards give up a ton of three pointers as well, so I think this could be a really big game for Levine if he were not to be limited at all. This is a back to back situation, so I have to monitor that news, but I would expect him to be a full go. Kobe White has not really been affected by the return of Vouch and Levine. He scored forty three plus DK points in every game since they've returned. Spurs Or bottom three DVPZZA point guards as well as being one of the league's worst three point defenses, so I like him a lot as well. Vucevic is projecting the best for us right now, but he would probably be my second or I would say one A, one B in terms of least favorite. Yeah, I just I just think the floor is really good for him, But I just don't think the ceiling is the same as a guy like Kobe White and Levine, well more so Levine. I think Kobe White is probably a little bit more of a floor play as well. With all these guys healthy, But yeah, I just I don't really want to pay seven point four K for Levine with the opportunity cost it comes with paying up for a center spot. Same for Damar, He's kind of just always been like a cash type play to me. But he's the cheapest seven point three K, so I think that he's a fine play as well. And then on the Spurs side, nothing really stands out. I mean, Calvin and Vessel are gonna get a ton of usage, but they're seven point five K and seven point three K and this is not really that great of a matchup for them. Bulls love to play really slow and pace. They've been a pretty solid defensive team all year long. They do get beat by three point shooters, which I guess you consider, can you can consider both of these guys, but a little bit too expensive for me to pay for these guys, and then Barlow and Sandro are gonna split the center minutes. Would have liked it a little bit better if they were close to four k or sub four k, but four point five four point three is kind of tough to pay for these guys, So they're probably gonna be both getting around twenty four minutes, I would say, so. Yeah, maybe the Spurs are just a full fad on this slate. Last game of the night, New Orleans Pelicans taken on the Dallas Mavericks two twenty nine over under with Dallas favored by four. Another big spot with injury news. We know that Luca is gonna be out here, so it's gonna be the Kyrie Irving and Tim Hardaway show again. Got Josh Green listen, questionable, Maxi Kleieber and Grant Williams are probable on the Pelicans side. Zion has already been ruled out, and you have all of to make sure we haven't gotten any more news on that. Yeah, we have all of Brandon ingram C, Jim McCollum and Trey Murphy listened questionable. Don't really know how it's gonna go, but I would probably expect two of them to sit, with Ingram and CJ being the most likely. So it's kind of really tough to break down because we just don't really know what's gonna happen with them. But I would say if Zion were to miss and Ingram is in, then he would probably be the priority. On the Pelican side, he sees the biggest usage and assist percentage bump at thirty three percent. On both of those numbers, he averages forty five DK points per thirty six minutes as well, and the Mavericks have fallen to bottom two and DVP to shooting guards this season, so I think he would be my favorite from an upside perspective. Almost nine K, which is pretty tough to pay, and he has not really been playing that well lately, but it's a good match up for him. I think CJ would be a little bit less of a priority of Zion were to be out and Ingram were to be in, But if Ingram is out and Zion is out and CJ is in, then he is definitely in play. He sees a thirty one percent usage rate and fifty four DK points per thirty six minutes, so he would be a really solid play at eight point one K. I think if all three are out and Trey Murphy is in, then he's a great play. If I guess if all four are out, then you're looking to you know, Herb Jones, Larry Dance, Junior, Naji Marshall, Dyson Daniels, Jose Alvarado. I think Jordan Hawkins would actually be pretty interesting tonight, just for the fact that the they will be without pretty much all of their main scores. And we've seen earlier this year that Hawkins is not afraid to shoot it. He shoot it, He's gonna chuck it when he's out there, and he's only three point eight K. I think he's got a good amount of upside if all those guys were to be ruled out. Yeah, just tough to break down. They will definitely break it down more in the discord as we get information. And on the Maverick side, yeah, Kyrie Irvin probably the top spent option tonight. Him and Giannis gonna be most of my lineups. I will not make the same mistake of fading him like I did the other night, fade him against the Knicks. Thought that the OG and Obi matchup would be enough. I could gain some leverage that way, But just a dumb mistake on my part. He obviously went off for seventy DK points or whatever it was. He's gonna just shoot it a ton when he's out there. The assist numbers are good without Luca as well, thirty percent used to Raight thirty five assist percentage. So he's a great spind up option tonight. Not too worried about the matchup with Herb Jones. Tim Hardway Junior just looks way too cheap for life with that Luca right now. Five point eight K he smashed last game out, went ten for twenty from the field, six for thirteen from deep for fifty one point five DK points. Pelicans are much They've been playing really good defensively lately, but obviously having all these guys out is gonna ding them a lot. But they've been much more vulnerable to catch and shoot three point shooters this season, and Tim Hardway Junior, you're gonna check it when he's out there. I don't think we really need to mess with any of these secondary pieces on the Dallas side though, it's really just Tim Hardaway and Kyrie Irving. Let's make it, you know, make it easier on ourselves and just look for the value elsewhere. But yeah, that's gonna do it. Got through this one pretty quickly, surprisingly, But yeah, good luck tonight, everybody. Good luck on the weekend, if you're playing MMA, if you're playing NFL. Gonna be a good weekend over here at ship in Nation. So I will see you guys on Tuesday for my show with Title Town. Later, guys, its ha n Stills, still Nether have been mistimed and then still Mother and them