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Inside The Data: What Do Analytics Say About Sam Howell Compared To Past Eagles Backup QBs? · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: He welcome back to another addition of inside the data
0:13
on inside the Birds. And of course when we're talking
0:15
about data and I'm Jeff Mosher, I always bring in
0:18
our data and analytics expert, Sam Finkel, and Man the Eagles, Sam,
0:22
they keep you busy because they just keep adding, subtracting, adding, subtracting,
0:26
and what we always love to do when they add,
0:28
which they've done over the last forty eight hours and longer,
0:31
is knock on the analytics store and you answer and
0:35
you put it all into great context for us. So
0:38
we're going to talk obviously about the addition of Sam
0:41
Howell as a number three quarterback to the Eagles. You've
0:45
got the charts all set up as you always do.
0:48
We're going to take a look at his stats, but
0:50
we'll do some comparisons and then I'm gonna after we
0:53
do it, Sam, I'll tell you something that I learned
0:55
from your chart that might have been different than what
0:58
I thought originally. So before we get into the charts
1:02
and the analytics, as always, I like to just ask
1:04
you your big picture thought process. I mean, we know
1:08
that Tanner McKee is injured right now with the broken thumb,
1:12
and it doesn't look like he'll be ready week one,
1:14
so Sam how will likely be the backup quarterback for
1:16
at least Week one, maybe week two, we'll see. But
1:20
given the Eagles history, because Howie Rosmond said he was
1:24
going to make this deal regardless of young developmental quarterback
1:28
at number three, you're surprised a little bit by the
1:31
Sam Howell move.
1:32
Speaker 2: Honestly, not really. Yeah, I think it's a It was
1:35
a good move, and I think it makes sense to
1:38
get somebody like Sam Howe in that three spot, especially
1:42
considering Tanner McKee's injury, like you said, And I think honestly,
1:47
McCord and dtr just weren't ready if they needed to
1:50
be in that backup spot, they just weren't ready. So
1:52
I think having somebody competent, or at least somebody that
1:55
can step in and not lose you a game is big.
1:59
So I think that makes a lot of sense.
2:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess last year. I guess that is this
2:05
because because I sort of had the BS meter going
2:07
on with Howie, Like, if Tanner McKee did not get hurt,
2:10
would you really have made this trade, given up assets
2:13
to have this guy as your number three? Knowing that
2:16
you don't have him beyond next year. See, the thought
2:19
process originally for a lot of people was, oh, good,
2:23
Sam Howell becomes your Kenny Pickett next year if you
2:26
trade Tanner McKee, which I would think that they'll be
2:29
able to do right, But no, because Sam Howell is
2:32
a free agent. So to me, it was almost anti
2:36
Howie Rosemaninche to make a business deal where you're getting
2:39
a guy but you only have one year. You're giving
2:42
up draft competition for a guy who really only has
2:44
one year and may never actually play for you. I
2:47
mean he might not. I'm hope he hurt, stays healthy
2:52
then in the first two weeks, then he doesn't have
2:54
to play, and then Tanner McKey comes back, and you know,
2:57
I'm sure you goes fan every praise that it's it's
3:00
only a bad thing of Sam Howell plays for the
3:01
Eagles this year. So that's why it was strange for me. However,
3:07
we'll go through your charts. There are some things that
3:09
suck out that maybe explain why Howie Rismon made that move.
3:14
And you're right in that they value the quarterback position
3:17
and last year they had Pickett and McKey, two guys
3:20
that they were confident in who could come in and
3:23
play some ball, whereas this year they didn't have that
3:25
confidence in number three. So that is a fair and
3:28
a good point. Let me and before I get to
3:31
the chart again, now that you've done some research on
3:34
Sam Howell, what is your just overall general conclusion of Sam.
3:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, he's a guy that's gonna step in
3:42
and he can manage a game. He's gonna he's kind
3:45
of a baller, so he's gonna throw the ball into
3:48
some tough spots and it's not always gonna work out,
3:52
but you know he's gonna try.
3:53
Speaker 1: So yeah, no, listen, man, that is the exact observation
3:58
that I've made. I've also made another cclusion that I'll
4:00
share in the show later that I told you about.
4:02
But I don't know. If you took just total pass
4:06
attempts for every team's number three quarterback total NFL pass attempts,
4:11
I'm not sure you're going to find too many number
4:13
threes that have thrown the ball as much, either totally
4:16
or on a per game basis, in a per start
4:19
basis than Sam Howell. Because, as we should all remember,
4:22
Sam Howell's offensive coordinator that year that he started a
4:26
couple of years ago with the Commanders or football team
4:28
whatever Washington was was Eric b Enemy and boy did
4:32
does Eric Banemy like to throw the ball around a lot.
4:36
So at very least the Eagles can say we have
4:38
a third quarterback who has thrown the ball quite a bit.
4:42
So let's get to your charts, which are always very enlightening,
4:45
and I will for those listening at home, as we
4:48
always do, if you're only listening on the podcast, not
4:50
watching on YouTube, we will do our best to describe
4:54
everything that those who are watching on YouTube are seeing. So, Sam,
4:58
I know that you always like to do this. Give
5:00
the you give the original context first and then we
5:02
get deeper into the analytics. So let's, uh, let's talk
5:05
about the trade. What jumps out to you in general
5:07
right now?
5:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean to me, it's a really good trade.
5:12
Speaker 1: Uh.
5:12
Speaker 2: And I know, like you said that, Ei, there's some
5:14
criticism that may be valid here, but you're just moving
5:17
back in twenty twenty six from a fifth to a
5:20
sixth and then paying a twenty twenty seven to seventh
5:23
for for a one year rental. But it's an insurance
5:26
policy that really only costs you a move back of
5:30
at most, like I don't know, it's not it's not
5:34
a lot, it's it's a move back of one round, right,
5:37
So at that point it's not crazy and a seventh,
5:40
So to me it is a great insurance policy move fair.
5:47
Speaker 1: The fifth is interesting only because I've come to value
5:51
you know, they gave a fifth in this deal up.
5:52
Also I've come to see like the value of the
5:56
early Day three picks. The egles a hit on some
6:00
of these guys, you know, And it looks to me
6:01
like Drew I think Drew Kendall was a fifth round
6:03
pick this year. Yeah, and it looks like he's got
6:06
going to be He could be active on game day
6:10
as the eighth offensive lineman if they don't upgrade between
6:12
now you know us recording and the season opener, which
6:15
is always possible. But he's a player who I thought
6:18
had a really good camp. Jeremiah Trotte Junior we've spoken
6:23
very highly of. I mean, he's going to be your
6:25
top backup inside linebacker. He might even play in certain
6:28
sub packages. He was a fifth round pick. Kenny Gainwell
6:33
was a fifth round pick. So we're in the past.
6:36
I would say, ah, Day three pick, you know, I
6:37
would almost lump fifth, sixth, that doesn't really matter. And
6:40
then all these trades these days, I mean, no matter
6:43
who's making your trade, you just see these six and
6:45
sevenths and fifths and sixth and conditionals going back and forth.
6:48
But I did think fifth again a little just a
6:52
little rich for a guy that you can't you're not
6:54
going to retain at least under cost control for a
6:58
second year. But Eagles to have thirteen picks, so I
7:01
know that that factored into the equation. They can always
7:03
move a few picks just to move up in the
7:05
fifth round if they want to.
7:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, And honestly, that's I think that's the best part
7:09
about it, right for me personally, is that you didn't
7:13
lose that draft capital. It really is just a move back.
7:17
And I do think you're right. You can get some
7:19
really solid additions and that can contribute pretty significantly to
7:23
the team, whether it's a depth role or you know,
7:26
something a little bit more. But the fact that you
7:28
retain the capital and it's just a move back gives
7:32
you optionality to move forward, I mean, especially because they
7:36
have all these picks next year.
7:38
Speaker 1: Especially Yep, you know what I just thought of a
7:42
great idea for a future inside the data, Sam, and
7:45
I might task you a little extra legwork. I have
7:47
always wondered in these kind of and you're seeing these
7:50
kind of trades, These bottom roster trades are happening all
7:54
over the NFL, and they've been for a while, and
7:56
there's always picks involved, and I know that there's a value,
8:00
but I've always wondered how when you add a player
8:03
into the equation you come up with value matching value.
8:07
So I would love to know, and maybe if you
8:10
know right now, you can tell me. If not, we
8:11
can do a future episode on it. How do you
8:14
value a player like Sam Howell and then adding a
8:18
sixth round pick to get a fifth and a seventh
8:23
in exchange. I know that the fifth, the seventh, and
8:26
the sixth all have numerical value, but I don't know
8:29
how the player is there? Are you aware of do
8:33
league executives? Is there a chart that says, like a
8:35
third string quarterback is worth this many points and that
8:38
factors into the equation.
8:41
Speaker 2: So my understanding is that the chart exists, and it's
8:46
specific even to like the actual pick, So it's not
8:50
even like you know this possible fifth round pick it's like, no,
8:55
like we're talking about the fifth round, twentieth pick in
8:59
the fifth round to determine actual value, and look, there
9:02
are ranges, right, So like, I mean, you can take
9:05
all the fifth round picks and they average a certain range,
9:08
and that's kind of that very valid and a good
9:12
way to kind of figure it out. But I don't
9:14
think that there is, at least that I'm aware of
9:18
a mechanism by which players, by their position, can be
9:23
evaluated by just a chart, especially because you kind of
9:27
have to project a little bit, right when you're training
9:29
for a guy, like for what you know, it's like
9:32
that saying that, like one man's trash is another man's treasure, right,
9:35
So it's like it's really hard, I think, to quantify
9:40
value of a player, especially in the context of picks.
9:44
Speaker 1: Right. So I would always wonder in this situation when
9:47
Howie is talking to I think Minnesota jam Is Quasi
9:50
Adolpho Mensa, yeah, who I believe is from Cherry Hill. Anyway,
9:56
when they're discussing, they're like, Okay, we want Sam Howell,
10:00
and the Vikings say, okay, well we think he's worth
10:04
a fifth and a seventh, and then how he says, well,
10:06
that's like what is he using them to say? No,
10:09
you have to throw in a sixth to counteract that,
10:11
you know what I'm saying like that, there has to
10:14
be a numerical value that I'm not aware of. We're
10:17
not aware of of what Sam Howe or generic backup
10:21
quarterback is to make that work to me, and this
10:24
has got to be some mathematical equation.
10:26
Speaker 2: There is, and I'm sure, like to be honest with you,
10:28
I think a lot of it is precedent, right, So
10:32
and like that the problem with that is like it's
10:33
a chicken or the egg thing, right, because it has
10:36
to start somewhere, right where where does that precedent come from?
10:40
So you look at historical trades and you say, in
10:43
this context, in this year, you know, rosters are deeper,
10:47
rosters are less deep, their quarterbacks are market is scarce
10:50
or the quarterback. There's a lot of quarterbacks that could
10:52
be available, and so you I think it's like a
10:55
multi factor analysis of what does the market look like
10:59
now and what has happened in the past, and I
11:03
think that informs those decisions. I'm sure there is some
11:05
math and I'm happy to look into it. Maybe we
11:08
can find some really cool information, But I do think
11:10
that's what drives those kind of conversations.
11:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'm guessing like you're saying that there's some
11:15
projection here. For example, Kenny Pickett, who we're going to
11:17
talk about a lot in this podcast, was traded again
11:20
from the Browns to the Raiders for a fifth round
11:22
pick next year. Okay, So that tells me if I
11:27
were and I don't want to use one example, I
11:28
probably should look at more. But it sort of tells
11:31
me though, that the value of a backup quarterback a
11:35
two slash three, not even a definitive number two, right,
11:38
because when Aidan O'Connell comes back, perhaps Pickett becomes a three.
11:41
I don't know. But the value of that kind of
11:44
two slash three that Pickett is and that howl is
11:47
is in the NFL a fifth round pick. So that
11:50
I'm almost looking at this Eagles trade and saying the
11:52
value that is fifth in Sam Howell and twenty twenty
11:57
six to sixth round pick to get a fifth the
12:00
Vikings and a seventh in return. Yeah, that's which I'm like,
12:06
does that make sense? Then you're trading sort of fifth
12:08
round picks and then you're giving up a six but
12:10
getting a seventh. But maybe that's where the Sam Howell
12:14
part of it. It's not just a fifth, it's a
12:15
little bit more. You're getting a player, so you get that,
12:19
you get the even exchange there, so.
12:21
Speaker 2: Sure, and you have the factor in like how much
12:23
is on their deal and like how much you're paying them,
12:26
like all these things like that. Actually, that's an excellent
12:29
point because you often see these big time players get
12:33
traded for less than first when their value is so huge,
12:36
especially at different positions, and a lot of the time
12:39
the reason is because you're gonna have to pay them
12:41
a lot or you're gonna have to get them to
12:42
a new deal, right right, No.
12:45
Speaker 1: That's a good point. And I think this one, the
12:47
Kenny Pickett one, to me, is a good comp to say,
12:51
maybe this is a fifth round pick because he also
12:54
enters the last year of his deal. There's no way
12:56
his fifth year option got picked up by anybody, So
12:59
this is your war for him and he should be
13:01
a free agent after the year, just like like Sam Howell.
13:04
Speaker 2: So but that they were in the same class, Yes
13:07
they were too. I think it was the first quarterback
13:10
taken in that class.
13:11
Speaker 1: Right again, can he Pickett's name is gonna come up
13:14
quite a bit in this podcast. All right, let's move
13:16
on to Sam Howell. Just go through his basic career stats.
13:20
Now he's it's it's very interesting, right, He's drafted to
13:24
be a backup essentially, and then he gets a starting
13:27
job the next year. There was a time coming out
13:29
of North Carolina where the thought process was Sam that
13:33
if he had left after his junior year instead of
13:36
his senior year, that he probably could have been a
13:40
first round pick. I think he wound up being a
13:43
third round pick in twenty twenty two, if I'm not mistaken.
13:46
Oh no, I'm sorry, a fifth round pick.
13:48
Speaker 2: I think it was.
13:48
Speaker 1: It was, yeah, because he had a really I remember
13:51
speaking to Great Cosell about this his senior year. They
13:53
have basically an all new offensive line, some new weapons,
13:57
and it he tried to do too much, was the
14:00
was the overriding theme talking to Greg and some other
14:02
people on him. And you know that happens. You don't
14:06
have as good of a year as you did the
14:07
year before your draft stock falls, and it did. But
14:10
there were some people who felt he would be it
14:11
had been at least the top fifty. Had he left
14:14
after the year earlier.
14:15
Speaker 2: Than that, Yeah, absolutely, And there's a lot of stuff
14:18
like that that happens and it does matter. And I
14:22
mean you saw Drake May who came in after him
14:25
become you know, a top pick. Yeah, so, I mean
14:28
it's an interesting comparison for sure.
14:31
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. Nothing screams NFL quarterback like North Carolina football,
14:35
right right? Well, actually, so for more context, their coach
14:42
was Mac Brown, was it not?
14:44
Speaker 2: I think so?
14:44
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. I mean he's been a pretty good coach
14:46
in the NCAA going back to his days in Texas
14:49
and somewhere else too, So it doesn't surprise me that
14:52
he brought NFL talent to Chapel Hill. It'll be very,
14:56
very very interesting to see how the Belichick regime works
15:01
there at North Carolina as well, the alma mater of
15:04
Lawrence Taylor. So really, I guess what jumps out with
15:09
Sam is that when he had the opportunity to start
15:11
in year two, not only did start, but he threw
15:13
the ball around quite a bit.
15:15
Speaker 2: One. Yeah, I mean that that's definitely It's hard because
15:19
I have, you know, three years of data here, but
15:23
really only twenty twenty three is instructive, right. I mean,
15:26
he played two games besides twenty twenty three, so I
15:30
think you don't throw those out. So I think it's
15:32
good to look at the total numbers, but they really
15:35
don't tell the full story.
15:37
Speaker 1: Sure. One thing I can add to this box, though,
15:40
is that those six hundred and twelve attempts in twenty
15:43
twenty three led the NFL.
15:46
Speaker 3: So Sam Howell, fifth round pick, first year starter, with
15:51
one game under his belt and nineteen career pass attempts
15:57
goes on to throw the ball more in the NFL
15:59
than any other more than Mahomes, more than Borrow, more
16:04
than any.
16:04
Speaker 1: Other quarterback in the NFL. Yeah, pretty amazing, right.
16:09
Speaker 2: I mean doing that and then being sub four thousand
16:12
yards is like not ideal, but I mean having almost
16:15
four thousand yards for a third string quarterback at this point,
16:19
I mean that he's seen some reps. I mean, that's
16:22
that's what you see.
16:23
Speaker 1: Right there, right, So perfect summation of it. I mean,
16:25
for a guy who threw the ball that much, he
16:27
had what we would describe as a mediocre completion percentage
16:32
at sixty three percent. Now listen, we'll contextualize it. All.
16:36
Washington stunk through offensive line stunk. They didn't have as
16:39
many weapons. But these are the numbers that we have.
16:42
And for a guy who threw the ball that much
16:44
as Sam you just mentioned it, he only threw for
16:46
three nine hundred yards and he only averaged six point
16:50
four five yards per attempt. This man threw a ton
16:55
of checkdowns is basically what we're getting at here. Six
16:58
point four or five per attempt is pretty low. And
17:01
then in twenty one touchdowns twenty one interceptions. If I'm
17:03
not mistaken, Sam, he must have saved his best games
17:07
for the Eagles, because didn't he play well? He played, Yeah,
17:12
let's get into that. I'll give you his game logs
17:14
against the Eagles. I think one of the games was
17:16
was pretty good. But in fact, if I'm not mistaken,
17:19
Sam Howell and Johan Dotson had a pretty good game
17:22
against the Eagles, including a touchdown at the end of
17:26
the game that tied it and then put it in
17:28
overtime where they lost. Washington lost thirty four to thirty one,
17:32
but he completed twenty nine of forty one passes, completed
17:36
seventy one percent of his passes for two hundred and
17:39
ninety yards and a touchdown.
17:41
Speaker 2: In that game, yep, definitely saving the best for the
17:46
Philadelphia Eagles for sure.
17:48
Speaker 1: And then in the rematch again Washington loses thirty eight
17:52
to thirty one, but he goes thirty nine of fifty two,
17:56
four touchdowns, one interception. My god, if you take the
17:59
Eagles away from his twenty twenty three season, those two
18:03
Eagles games, how bad his numbers look.
18:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, listen, you can see right here that
18:09
that's a big chunk of both the attempts, yardage and touchdowns.
18:13
So for sure, right place.
18:15
Speaker 1: Right time for Sam Howe. He caught the Eagles when
18:17
that was the Okay, so that was the Sean de
18:19
Si slash Matt Patricia year, and things did not go
18:23
very well, especially over the second half of the season.
18:27
I like what you did here at the explain sort
18:29
of the backup career basic stat comp here.
18:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I just took some recent backups and memory
18:38
and just to contextualize the basic statistics. I know we
18:42
do this a lot with the advanced statistics, but I
18:44
think it's important to kind of contextualize in the basic statistics.
18:48
And so if you look, I mean really, and this
18:52
is where we kind of hinted at it before, but
18:54
Sam Howean can he pick it are really the only
18:56
two that are comparable because Tanner McKee only had forty
19:00
five career attempts in the regular season and then Gardner
19:05
Minshew has seventeen hundred. So I mean, like it's really
19:09
hard to compare, but I do think it gives a
19:12
kind of a good indication of where they're at. So, like,
19:15
if you look at their completion percentage, you know, Sam
19:18
Howe was at sixty two point sixty four, Tanner McKee
19:22
is at two thirds sixty six point sixty seven. Kenny
19:26
Picketts at sixty two point three eight, which is very
19:29
similar to Sam Howel. Right, they're both at sixty two
19:32
percent ticket is the lowest, and then Minshew is sixty
19:35
three point twenty seven.
19:37
Speaker 1: Right, So the beginning the seeds are sown of my
19:40
takeaway and conclusion, which was that Kenny Pickett and Sam
19:45
Howe with virtually comparable numbers as far as attempts and completions,
19:50
have somewhat comparable also like completion percentage stats and yards
19:55
per attempts that's maybe not as much as touchdown interception
19:59
but not too far away either, and QB raiding. So
20:03
now you start to see, Okay, the Eagles had Kenny
20:06
Pickett as his number two last year, and they're bringing
20:09
in Sam Howell to be their number three. So if
20:13
you're bringing in a player who statistically compares to your
20:17
last number two and he's your number three, you're in
20:19
a pretty.
20:19
Speaker 2: Good spot definitely. And that's that's kind of I think
20:23
a greater takeaway of this that, like you said that,
20:25
we'll get into mm hmm, but yeah, I mean they're
20:28
they're only like pick Pickett had a lot more games
20:31
played and he had like one hundred more attempts, but yeah,
20:37
he only has like six hundred more yards. His yards
20:40
per attempt is worse, like you said, his touchdowns are worse,
20:45
but his interceptions are better. And then their rating is
20:47
only like two points away.
20:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, makes them very comparable. And then so what
20:53
you did here was a just a Sam Howel can
20:57
he Pickett comparison that we we just talked about, and
21:00
can see three green boxes for Sam, three for Kenny.
21:05
And that's where I guess as we get into is Sam,
21:10
if you would have said before we did this, pot right,
21:12
that which quarterback would rather have Sam Howe, Kenny Pickett
21:16
and I you know, without the benefit of watching tape
21:19
and just knowing who they were and the seasons, right,
21:22
I probably would have said in my head, well, Kenny
21:24
Pickett has a winning record in the NFL, and he
21:27
started for the Steelers and they always made the playoffs
21:30
even if they were not a good team. And he
21:33
played for the Steelers at a pretty bad time for them.
21:36
Their offensive line was not very good, you know, they
21:38
were going through their Deontay Johnson drama. I think at
21:41
least for his first year there, they were just just
21:44
not the normal Steelers. Their running game wasn't very good
21:47
because Najee Harris was running behind a bad old line.
21:50
And then we just talked about Sam Howell. I mean,
21:53
he was just throwing the ball over the place, but
21:54
not with great success. So I probably would have said,
21:58
Kenny Pickett is far and away a better option for
22:01
you than Sam Howell, just with that context of at
22:05
least this guy has played some competitive football for a
22:08
good franchise and has a winning record. But as we
22:11
get deeper into the numbers, that's when I thought, maybe
22:14
maybe there's really not much separating these guys.
22:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I don't really think I think the biggest
22:19
difference is Kenny Pickett is a little bit more conservative
22:24
and he'll he won't take as many risks, and I think,
22:27
how will Well.
22:28
Speaker 1: That's interesting, but how much of that do you think?
22:30
Great point, by the way, and we'll get into the
22:32
numbers that show that. But Kenny Pickett was essentially playing
22:38
for conservative offensive you know, from Matt Canada. I guess
22:42
to then, I don't does he ever have to spend
22:44
time with Arthur Smith. I don't think it did. But
22:46
either way, the Steelers traditionally under Mike Tomlin are conservative
22:51
offensively on maybe say for those one or two years
22:53
when Ben Roethlisberger was thrown for five thousand yards because
22:56
he's fifteen years in right, Yeah, but that's that's how
22:59
they operate. Whereas Sam Howell played for one of the
23:03
least conservative offensive coordinators in football for Eric b Enemy,
23:07
who just wants to fling the ball on first down,
23:09
second down, third down, fourth and short like all over
23:12
the place. Right. So you wonder were they just quarterbacks
23:17
who are adapting to their surrounding culture or is this
23:22
what's also in their DNA Regardless.
23:25
Speaker 2: I think it's a little bit of both. But I
23:26
think that's an excellent point in the backdrop that we
23:29
definitely should consider. I love that actually to.
23:33
Speaker 1: Try to add a little context to this, And I'm
23:35
not a data expert, but what do we see here
23:37
in the advanced stats comp that jumps out to you? Yeah?
23:40
So again, and so this is my season, right, You've
23:43
you've done each quarterback by their seasons.
23:46
Speaker 2: And I put Jalen Hurts there just to comparison, because
23:49
I think it's really important to not just look at
23:51
these stats in a vacuum. I think contextualizing them to
23:54
what you see every week with Jalen Hurts and what
23:57
that season looked like just helps to better solidify understanding.
24:01
Speaker 1: Mm hm.
24:02
Speaker 2: So I did every year that the players started. So
24:05
there's only one year of Sam Howell, there's two years
24:08
of can He Picket, and there's three years of Jalen Hurts,
24:11
just because that's the extent of this analysis.
24:14
Speaker 1: Got it.
24:16
Speaker 2: So if you look at completion percentage, I mean Sam Howe,
24:23
between him and Picket, out of all the seasons, he
24:26
leads it, right, And if you look at them all
24:29
their numbers, Hurts exceeds them in twenty twenty two and
24:32
twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four, and I was
24:35
actually a little bit surprised about how well Jalen Hurts
24:38
ranked in the advanced statistics compared to twenty two and
24:42
twenty three, just as an inside Yeah, but sixty nine
24:45
point two percent completion percentage is pretty incredible.
24:48
Speaker 1: That was last year. Yeah.
24:51
Speaker 2: So then we look at the expected completion percentage and again.
24:55
Speaker 1: By the way, real real quick as we yes, Sam
24:57
Howell sort of among the backup between he in Picketts seasons.
25:01
Samhow wins the completion percentage, He gets the green box,
25:04
Kenny Pickett gets the red. But honestly, sixty two and
25:06
sixty three point four are somewhat negligible as far as
25:09
a big difference. It just feels like, like what we said,
25:11
they're basically the same.
25:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, and well not even that. His twenty twenty two
25:15
number was sixty three, so it's zero point four.
25:17
Speaker 1: Percentage exactly exactly, So it's all pretty much the same there.
25:21
So you were saying about expected completion percentage.
25:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, so that's just based on where like based on
25:27
the throw. It's an algorithm that determines what the expected
25:31
like what should have been completed, So anything over that
25:34
will get you a positive number, and if you complete
25:37
less than that, it's a negative number. Right, So if
25:40
you look at that, I mean, again, pretty similar, how
25:44
completed sixty three point two. I'm sorry, he was expected
25:49
to do sixty three point two, which lives his completion
25:52
percentage over expected, which is just the subtraction of those
25:55
two numbers. And again, people don't normally show the expected completion.
25:59
I just think it really helps understand where that number
26:02
actually comes from.
26:03
Speaker 1: Absolutely, because this is an algorithm intended to sort of
26:08
explain the offenses that were within and how easy the
26:10
passes are versus not. You know, you're expect completion percentage
26:13
versus what's a tougher well, you know, like the tight
26:16
window throw that we talk about and things like that. Yeah.
26:18
Speaker 2: Absolutely, And so if you have a positive number, that
26:21
generally means you're you're making good throws in tough situations.
26:25
And how and Pickett both have a positive number in
26:30
two of the three. Right, So there's point two percent
26:34
over expectation for Howell in twenty three point three percent
26:38
which was better obviously in twenty three, but pretty negligible difference.
26:42
And then he actually had a lower in twenty twenty two.
26:45
Minus point six percent, and those numbers like in a vacuum,
26:49
like what do they mean that you look at Hurts? Right,
26:51
it's a pretty significant and honestly, it's incredible that he's
26:54
gotten better each year at making tougher throws. Right, two
26:58
point six percent and twenty two to four point five
27:01
percent twenty three and then six point eight percent.
27:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean around three hundred percent there by from
27:08
year one to year three.
27:10
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think he led the league in qualified
27:12
passers in completion percentage over expectation in twenty four and
27:16
I remember either one or two something like that.
27:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean two point six percent is pretty good
27:21
on its own, but then he to go from that
27:23
to four point five and twenty three and then last
27:25
year six point eight percent. Yeah, very very good. All right,
27:29
Going the next box is your your EPA slash dB.
27:34
So what can you explain that?
27:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, so that's your expected points added per drop back.
27:39
So it's really just a metric that every time you
27:41
drop back to throw the ball, are you putting your
27:44
team in a position to succeed? Like that's really what
27:46
it is. Right, every time you have a positive number,
27:49
it means you you significantly contributed to a scoring play.
27:53
If you have a negative number, it means you're hindering
27:56
your offense in a normal situation based on down and
27:59
distance and situation, you're putting your team behind the chains,
28:02
behind schedule, right, that's really what it is. A positive number,
28:06
you're keeping them on schedule to score, you're putting them
28:08
in a better position to score. A negative number, you're
28:11
holding your team back, got it. And so you look
28:15
at these backups, they're all negative numbers.
28:17
Speaker 1: Right now, It's that interesting that Sam Howell had a
28:22
higher completion percentage over expected than his actual completion percentage, right,
28:29
and yet he was holding his team back by minus
28:32
zero point two to one. So I find that a
28:35
pretty interesting stat right, Yeah.
28:36
Speaker 2: I mean, just because you complete the ball doesn't mean
28:38
you're putting your team in a position. And one of
28:40
the big things that I know that Andy Reid likes
28:43
to do, and I'm assuming the enemy also was a
28:45
big part of it, is they like to throw the
28:48
ball to both horizontally but also I mean both vertically
28:51
but also horizontally stretched the football. And some when you
28:55
don't have a good team and you try to, you know,
28:58
do the safer horizontal stretch of the ball and you
29:02
get stopped. I mean, it counts as a completion, but
29:04
you're like, you're not gaining yards, you're losing yards. And
29:07
so some of that's reflected there.
29:10
Speaker 1: A lot that told me, tells me there was a
29:12
lot of four yard completions on third and six, you
29:15
know exactly, situations like that, yep, and pick it sort
29:19
of too conservative offense. So even though he's better with
29:21
the minus point zero four instead of point two to one,
29:25
it's still a negative in both of his twenty two
29:27
and twenty three seasons. So all three of these guys,
29:29
not surprisingly and this is why there are number two
29:32
slash threes in the league have not great you know,
29:36
negative EPA per dropbacks.
29:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then again to contextualize it, where hurts is uh,
29:42
he was at point one point one twenty two zero
29:45
for twenty three, and I do think he was hurt
29:48
a lot because of the bad defense in twenty three.
29:50
He was just on the field a lot, and it's
29:51
hard to it. It was a tough situation. And then
29:55
point one four and twenty four, which was the best
29:59
out of the the entire lot.
30:01
Speaker 1: Here, what is do you happen to know? Like what
30:05
what typically constitutes uh, a really high a great e
30:10
p A per drop back? Like what number?
30:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think to really tell you that. Let me
30:16
just I'm gonna pull up, Josh, don't give me the best.
30:19
Speaker 1: Don't give me like Burrow or Mahomes though, I would
30:21
love to know, Like what was say, like Jared Goff's
30:24
e PA last year.
30:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's let's do it.
30:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, just to kind of put that in perspective.
30:29
Speaker 2: So Jared Goff's e PA per drop back was point
30:32
two five last year.
30:33
Speaker 1: Okay, so that's pretty high.
30:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, but he was the second highest.
30:38
Speaker 1: Ah, who is the highest?
30:40
Speaker 2: Do you want to guess? Remember this Amble's count? No?
30:46
Speaker 1: You know because Joe Burrow had Yeah, Joe brow oh
30:49
scrambles count Lamar it is Lamar.
30:53
Speaker 2: I kind of I kind of gave it away, gave
30:55
a h because I wanted to help you out. I'm
30:57
not going to put you in a tough situation.
30:59
Speaker 1: Thank you. No, I appreciate Yeah, I appreciate that. How
31:01
about do you have every quarterback there?
31:04
Speaker 2: I have every quarterback here.
31:05
Speaker 1: Yeah. So even the like Dak Prescott got hurt last year, right,
31:08
you know, the he goes have the Cowboys coming up.
31:09
I had his numbers though, Okay, good? What was his
31:12
ePaper drop back?
31:13
Speaker 2: Minus point one one?
31:15
Speaker 1: Wow? Interesting that, I bet. I don't know if you
31:20
have his career ePaper drop back in front of you,
31:22
but I'm sure that that's different. Yeah, he got off
31:24
to a really bad start and then got hurt last year.
31:27
Speaker 2: Yeah. Interest from context. In twenty three he was plus
31:30
point one six plus point one six, which was second
31:35
best in the league.
31:36
Speaker 1: Oh, so hurts at point one four last year has
31:39
got to be What was that was that top five?
31:41
You center? Number two that.
31:42
Speaker 2: Said hurts last year? Uh? Was actually eleventh?
31:46
Speaker 1: Oh okay, yeah, you said golf was number two? Okay, yeah, eleven? Interesting?
31:50
All right, one more quarterback just because this is fun. Sure,
31:54
I'm gonna give you all go with a good one
31:55
and a not good one just to see. Give me
31:57
bone nicks, bone knicks.
32:00
Speaker 2: All right, let's take a look. I just scrolled out. Okay,
32:03
he is seventeenth with a minus point four.
32:08
Speaker 1: Okay, as a rookie, understandable, gotcha, and now give me.
32:13
Speaker 2: Oh I'm sorry. It was zero zero points. His total
32:16
EPA was minus point four. His EPA per dropback was zero.
32:21
Speaker 1: Oh, okay, so that's better epage for drop back. Yeah,
32:24
and then how about CJ. Stroud?
32:29
Speaker 2: Alright, c J Stroud? Last year of CJ Stroud the
32:32
year before.
32:32
Speaker 1: Last year EPA per drop back.
32:34
Speaker 2: Oh gosh, okay, I have to scroll down quite a bit. CJ.
32:38
Stroud was twenty fifth.
32:40
Speaker 1: And what was his overall number?
32:42
Speaker 2: Negative zero point zero seven?
32:46
Speaker 1: Wow? Wow? Interesting, really interesting stuff. Yeah. It just shows
32:50
you also how year to year they say, I bet
32:52
if you looked at his EPA per draw back the
32:53
year before, it was probably one of the better ones
32:55
in the league.
32:55
Speaker 2: Right almost guarantee. Yeah, I can get that right now.
32:59
Speaker 1: All right, well you look that. So that's interesting because
33:01
Hurts has been point one, one zero and point one fourth,
33:04
never in the negative, which doesn't surprise me. He has
33:06
been a good, good quarterback for the Eagles, obviously, very
33:09
good one, so always good.
33:11
Speaker 2: Stroud was plus zero point zero six any point seven?
33:16
Speaker 1: Nice? Interesting? All right, good stuff there. Let's move on
33:19
to the the A Y slash ATT, which I believe
33:23
is average George per attempt or area I'm sorry yards, right, yeah,
33:27
air yards. So this goes back to the sort of
33:29
the offense that both of these two teams were were
33:31
running right, and the differing offenses.
33:34
Speaker 2: Definitely, And I think it was I included that I
33:38
don't normally include the stat I really don't, but I
33:41
think in terms of the Eagles like to throw the
33:43
ball deep sometimes, so I kind of wanted to see
33:46
where they're lined up in terms of that. And so
33:49
because if you look, I mean, the best that they
33:52
have on there is Kenny Pickets twenty twenty two season
33:55
seven point eight, which coincidentally is the worst of the
33:59
Eagles years, which was this year where Hurts had seven
34:02
point eight, right, So I think that that and I
34:05
do think I think Eagles fans will be one of
34:08
the first to say that they did throw the ball
34:10
deep less this year, which is probably why Hurts his
34:13
completion percentage is the highest it has been because it's
34:17
it's when you take shots, you're not always going to
34:18
make them. But I do think it's really interesting that
34:22
they're you know, really consistent around seven.
34:26
Speaker 1: Uh.
34:26
Speaker 2: There is some variance, right, because there's seven point four
34:29
for how seven point one for Picket in twenty three
34:32
and seven point eight for him and twenty two, So
34:33
you throw the ball deep less in twenty three, but yeah,
34:39
that's I think that that's a good stat and then
34:41
I married it with a deep percentage, right, because I
34:44
think not just how often are you doing it? Right?
34:46
It's not just you know how many yards are going for,
34:49
but are you doing it consistently?
34:51
Speaker 1: Right? Plus I like this stat because we know that
34:53
Jalen Hurts loves to throw that deep sideline goball to
34:57
aj Brown and DeVante Smith, and so he's always probably
35:01
pretty high aupong. The deep percentage in the in the
35:03
NFL last year was actually low for him. Well, last
35:06
year wasn't a great passing year. We know that nine
35:08
point three put in the year's past eleven point five
35:11
and twelve point one in twenty twenty two, and that
35:14
just shows you Sam Howell at ten point five when
35:17
he had the opportunity in that offensive system, he wanted
35:21
to go.
35:22
Speaker 2: Deep, absolutely, And I think that it's it's a very
35:27
interesting statistic. And you look at I'm trying to figure
35:31
out where Kurt's actually lines up. He was twenty fifth
35:35
in this statistic last year. Yeah, last year.
35:38
Speaker 1: At nine point three, hm, but do you happen to
35:41
know what he was in twenty twenty two when he
35:43
had a twelve point ten percent because I have a
35:46
feeling that's probably high.
35:47
Speaker 2: It's probably higher. Hold on one second, I will get it.
35:51
Speaker 1: I love making you do work in the middle of
35:53
the show. Is what makes this show great.
35:56
Speaker 2: It's all good. I like it. It's digging in the
35:58
crates deep percentage. In twenty twenty three, he was eighth.
36:04
Speaker 1: No, I'm sorry, Well that's good, okay, And then I
36:06
would assume in twenty twenty two it was even higher
36:08
because that's a higher percentage of twelve point ten percent.
36:11
Speaker 2: Good point he was, and this is a qualified passer,
36:16
so it does remove some of the you know he
36:18
was thirteenth.
36:20
Speaker 1: Okay, Well, just you know it's gonna be a year
36:22
to year thing sometimes that the ball gets thrown deeper
36:24
a little more one year than the next.
36:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, so that that's actually a really good point too. Yeah,
36:29
it's all relative to that. But it is interesting that
36:33
how had ten point five percent, which is like right
36:36
around where the Eagles typically in the last three years
36:39
have been, I mean, maybe a little bit lower on average,
36:41
but right there as well.
36:44
Speaker 1: Your next column is TTT. That would be the.
36:48
Speaker 2: Time to throw, time to throw? And you you notice
36:52
I didn't put a green or red box here.
36:54
Speaker 1: Yes, I was gonna ask you about that.
36:56
Speaker 2: I consistently don't because it's a more of a product of,
36:59
you know, your environment and offensive line and your scheme.
37:04
But I just think he's interesting to compare. But I
37:05
don't think it's fair to say, like, if you have
37:07
a quicker time to throw, you're better, yep, because like
37:11
that doesn't really tell you that.
37:12
Speaker 1: I just think it helps tell a story. So I'm
37:16
curious about this metric. Now, if a quarterback drops back
37:19
to pass, looks around, scrambles, and runs for first down,
37:24
does that not factor into the time to throw because
37:27
it's a run.
37:28
Speaker 2: Or Yeah, I don't think it does. I think it's
37:30
only when you're throwing the ball.
37:31
Speaker 1: Okay, now, Jalen Hurts, so yeah, this is so contextual
37:35
because all right, so Howell and the two picket seasons
37:38
are under three seconds time to throw, and they're all
37:42
sort of comparable there as well. Hurts has a higher
37:46
time to throw. But some of that is offensive line
37:49
having eleat once. Some of that is well, what if
37:52
if you get sacked, does that also count to your
37:55
time to throw or not?
37:56
Speaker 2: I believe it actually does.
37:58
Speaker 1: And Jalen took an inordinate number of sacks last year
38:04
I think the highest in the NFL per drop back
38:08
if I'm not mistaken, So his number is going to
38:11
be higher. Not time to throw. It doesn't necessarily always
38:13
reflect offensive line blocking. It could be how long you
38:15
hold on to the ball and vice versa of all
38:18
these right columns like this one. As that's why you
38:21
didn't color it is because there's just so much too
38:24
much what if.
38:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it doesn't really it's it's no better. It's
38:29
just like, this is what it was, let's talk about it.
38:31
And that's kind of what I was hoping we do him.
38:33
That's what we did, so there we go.
38:35
Speaker 1: Well, I think that the thing you can say is
38:37
if you want to compare to the starting year for
38:40
Sam Howell to the to the twenty twenty three season
38:43
to Kenny Pickett, they both have very similar time to throw,
38:47
and they're both I mean, both of them are pretty
38:49
decent athletes. They both can run a little bit. Everybody
38:51
remembers the Kenny Pickett fakes live run back in pit.
38:55
But they're both not necessarily going to be running all
38:57
around like Lamar Jackson either, So I think that they
39:00
basically had the same time to throw when you evaluate
39:03
their passing stats.
39:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, and I think that's helped. I think really,
39:08
if anything, it just strengthens this comparison between the seasons, right,
39:12
because it shows they had similar situations, or at least
39:15
they handled it similarly. So it helps contextualize I think,
39:19
even just the basic statistics right right.
39:22
Speaker 1: So right, that last column being QBP.
39:26
Speaker 2: You know what that is?
39:28
Speaker 1: Quarterback pressure percentage? They were under pressure? Yes, and again
39:34
Sam working with you now.
39:37
Speaker 2: No doubt, no doubt. But I will say that this
39:40
one also I maybe shouldn't have highlighted, but I do
39:43
think it is important. But it is more than just
39:46
the quarterback right, the offensive lot. I guess, like any
39:49
stat you could argue that you shouldn't highlight, but I
39:51
do think a lot of this can be on the quarterback. Right,
39:55
quarterbacks hold the ball a long time. You know, they're
39:58
increasing their pressure percentage. So you look, I mean, Howe
40:02
has staggering forty percent the year he started, uh, and
40:06
we talked about it. That line was not good, No,
40:09
But did Hali help himself? Probably not. You know, you
40:13
don't get forty percent even with a bad line, based
40:17
because like I think the b enemy offense would be
40:19
wanting to get the ball out fast, you know, especially
40:22
to counteract the bad line. Right, forty percent doesn't just
40:26
happen from the offensive line.
40:28
Speaker 1: There you go.
40:29
Speaker 2: But Pickett also, you know, not too far away thirty
40:32
six point seven, thirty four point five right.
40:35
Speaker 1: Now, it doesn't surprise me Pickett's protection was a little
40:38
or the pressury face was a little lower because the
40:42
Steelers are doing a job of running the ball, which
40:44
the I don't think Washington did that year, nor did
40:47
they seem to want to. But even in a bad
40:50
year for the Steelers, they're going to give you a
40:52
baseline level of running game and protection that's going to
40:55
be probably better than other quarterbacks, no doubt.
40:59
Speaker 2: And then just hurts for comparison. I mean, he's hugging
41:04
a third of his snaps pretty much, except for twenty three,
41:06
which was almost forty percent. Not ideal, but hugging around
41:10
a third is like, that's pretty fair.
41:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, great stuff. So my long time conclusion,
41:16
Sam was that there really isn't that much of a
41:19
difference between Sam Howell and Kenny Pickett. Except for the Eagles,
41:23
Sam Howe is being asked to be the number three,
41:25
whereas Pickett was being asked to be the number two. Yeah,
41:28
so when you look at total QB room, this is
41:32
an upgrade. It is, or it makes some sense. But
41:35
I would also say that for Kenny Pickett being a
41:38
first rounder, these stats probably don't really reflect that he
41:42
should have been drafted in the first round or is
41:44
a first round talent?
41:45
Speaker 2: Sure, And I mean there was a lot of debate
41:47
at the time, like should there even have been a
41:49
first round quarterback in that class? It was a pretty
41:51
weak quarterback class. It was the class.
41:54
Speaker 1: Yep, it was, You're absolutely right. I can't remember who
41:58
the second quarterback taken was.
42:01
Speaker 2: Was it Malik Willis?
42:02
Speaker 1: Oh? Boy? Was it? You might be right? And that
42:05
was like late in the giraffe, right, yeah, I'll tell
42:08
you right now, I have to I have to look.
42:12
Speaker 2: Of course, you're right, I know it was the quarterback class.
42:15
Speaker 1: Was No, it was Desmond Ridder. Oh yeah, by the way,
42:20
that was third round. So nobody went in the second round.
42:22
Pickett went late in the first. Ridder went seventy fourth overall.
42:26
Willis went eighty sixth overall. And if I tell you
42:30
who went also in the third round, you would probably die.
42:33
I mean, there was a thought process that this kid
42:36
just needed like a year or two of seasoning in
42:39
the NFL, and he was gonna be really good out
42:42
of Ole miss.
42:44
Speaker 2: Oh oh what's his name? I love that kid coming
42:47
out route.
42:49
Speaker 1: Yes, people loved matcr They thought.
42:52
Speaker 2: That this quick release was insane. Yes, and then he
42:56
got claimed by the Patriots, and then he like didn't
42:59
show up yep, and they got ahead of the Yeah, yeah,
43:03
I remember that he had.
43:04
Speaker 1: Speaking of Patriots, Sam, they actually drafted a quarterback that
43:09
year ahead of Sam Howell by seven slots. Howl went
43:14
one forty fourth overall. He was the first pick of
43:16
the fifth round, who went one hundred and seventy one
43:19
hundred and thirty seventh overall in the fourth round to
43:22
the Patriots.
43:23
Speaker 2: That wasn't zappy year, was it?
43:24
Speaker 1: It was Western Kentucky's finest Bailey zappy boy. This was
43:30
just not a great quarterback year.
43:31
Speaker 2: But they had party that class too, mister irrelevant.
43:34
Speaker 3: Miss, Yes, that's a great point.
43:36
Speaker 1: Party was the party is far and away the best
43:39
quarterback to come out of this draft, Skyler Thompson was
43:43
drafted in the seventh round, and so was Chris I
43:45
don't even remember this guy. The Steelers drafted him, Chris
43:49
Oladokin South. Yeah. Wow, that's a poll part. Yeah, that
43:55
is amazing, all right, So that will close the book
43:59
on that. You know, we wanted to try to give
44:01
some information on Wooly Lampkin. But the issue with that, Sam,
44:06
when you deal in the analytics world is that there
44:08
need to be analytics to deal.
44:11
Speaker 2: Listen, there was one analytic I got that could take
44:13
away from this definite size.
44:15
Speaker 1: Way too height and size right, no, no, no.
44:17
Speaker 2: No, no. He in the preseason he had sixteen pass
44:20
blocking snap opportunities over two games and allowed zero pressures.
44:24
All zero pressures. And again we talk about this all
44:28
the time. You should not give up like you should
44:32
give up less pressures on the interior offensive line, Like
44:34
the closer you are to the middle, the less pressure
44:37
shuld be get. But it's still impressive and his film
44:39
looked really good. He did like a spin move to
44:41
like get the second level block. It was kind of
44:43
it was kind of cool. It was a little reminiscent
44:46
of Landon Dickerson's pier away.
44:50
Speaker 1: You know, I got Yeah, I gotta tell you two
44:53
funny things. One, I think you're probably familiar with Brandon Thorn, right,
44:56
he's like an offensive line tape guru. Sure. And he
45:01
put out a tweet I think he had done it
45:04
before the Eagles even traded for this is like might
45:06
be weeks ago, and then he just reposted it on
45:10
X where there's one play against Dallas in the preseason
45:13
where Lampkin's like blocking three He's pancaking like three Dallas
45:16
guys on one play. And I think when he shared that,
45:20
everybody's like, oh my god, this guy is incredible, but
45:23
he's just pancaking three people on one play. And then
45:27
somebody else, maybe Nate Tice, I don't know, somebody put
45:30
out a social media post that says, I can't believe
45:34
that the NFL let Willy Lampkin get to Jeff Stealtlin
45:39
as if this guy was a first round pick. I mean,
45:41
I can't believe the Eagles let Jayleen Carter go to
45:43
the Eagles is a very fair statement. Right, Willy Lampkin
45:46
didn't even get drafted. You can't believe it.
45:51
Speaker 2: Taller he'd be a second round pick. He plays with
45:58
such intensity and technique. And I also interviewed Matt lime Grover,
46:03
who I'm very close with who was one of my
46:05
mentors at Penn State and he is an offensive line
46:09
coach for a long time, and he he also it
46:13
conveniently came up in our conversation Willie Lampkin, and yeah,
46:17
it did, and we I posted a clip of it
46:20
on x as well from the interview.
46:22
Speaker 1: Give your Handle so everybody knows.
46:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, at Sam Finkle might be Sam underscore Finkle.
46:29
Speaker 1: I was gonna say, is there an underscore?
46:30
Speaker 2: I believe it's Sam.
46:31
Speaker 1: Yeah, to know your own handle, man, Yeah, right, I.
46:33
Speaker 2: Know that for sure, it's it's it is Sam Underscore.
46:38
But basically what we did with that is we asked him, like,
46:45
what do you think about this kid?
46:46
Speaker 1: Kid?
46:46
Speaker 2: Because what the context of the question I asked is basically,
46:51
can you overcome size? Like we gave him a list
46:54
of five different things like intelligence, technique, talent, Like we
47:00
we gave all these different variables, and size he said
47:03
was the least important. And he said that Lampkin is
47:06
a guy he thinks really could be successful despite his size.
47:11
I mean, you know a big thing offensive line coaches
47:14
say is you know low man wins. Well, it's easier
47:16
to be the low man if you're you know, a
47:18
low man, right you closer to the ground. I don't know,
47:22
but listen, he if he had the size, he'd be
47:26
a starter. He's a he would be a serviceable backup,
47:29
and who knows what he can develop into. I do
47:32
think he will be definitively limited because of his size,
47:37
but when he has opportunities, he seems to be making
47:40
the most of them.
47:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, if he were to ever play center for the Eagles,
47:45
he'd probably be the only offensive lineman that Jalen Hurts
47:47
could see over. So that's that's good, and I think
47:52
it's pretty he listen. I know Coastal Carolina is not
47:57
you know, Michigan, Ohio State or Penn State, but they
48:00
have put some guys in the NFL before. They're not like,
48:03
you know, it's you know, I was gonna make a
48:05
Tarletan State joke because of Darius Cooper, but like, Coastal
48:08
Caroline has put some guys in the NFL.
48:10
Speaker 2: But he also went to UNC last I know, but
48:12
I was just gonna.
48:13
Speaker 1: Say the fact that he played left tackle there at
48:17
five ten to seventy is a feat in itself. Again,
48:22
that's it's, you know, they compete, they're they're you know,
48:24
they're not playing like the Sisters of the Poor every week.
48:28
So for him to do that and then, like you said,
48:30
go and play at a much higher level and play
48:33
guard there. He didn't even play center to my knowledge,
48:36
in college. So that's really interesting that, you know, because
48:39
that obviously would be probably the only position at five
48:43
ten to seventy he could play in the NFL. Just
48:47
just I'll be interesting to see how this thing works out.
48:49
I can't say I'm I'm real optimistic, but I mean,
48:52
if you just watched that one highlight from Brandon Thorne,
48:54
you think you got you got the next like you know,
48:56
DERMANI Dawson here. But but uh, I I'm curious to
49:01
see how it works out.
49:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, I am curious too, and I think you know,
49:05
if he's any position to be successful, it's under Stalin.
49:07
Uh there, you beat the drum there. I do think
49:11
it's possible that they stashed him on a minor injury
49:14
than I are.
49:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean they waived him. I mean I'm sorry
49:17
they claimed him as an injured player. So yeah, yeah,
49:21
it'll be interesting to see. That would be a that
49:23
would be smart because I do still think the Eagles
49:25
really should have a backup center who is not a rookie.
49:31
I liked what I saw from Drew Kendall. I don't
49:34
want this team to have to move Land and Dickerson,
49:37
especially now, to center, if there's an injury to Cam
49:41
Jurgen's I think there. It happened last year they won
49:43
the Super Bowl. I know everybody can say but but,
49:46
but you know, past success does not always predictive of future.
49:51
Speaker 2: So I just figure attack line.
49:54
Speaker 1: I like that. I like it. So yeah, I think
49:58
it wouldn't surprise me if this made a move to
50:00
bring in somebody.
50:01
Speaker 3: You know, they did it last year with Nick Gates.
50:02
Speaker 1: They just never they just weren't confident enough to play
50:05
Nick Gates in a meaningful game. I think that they
50:08
should probably arm themselves with somebody they're more confident in
50:11
until Drew Kendall's a little bit more.
50:13
Speaker 2: Seasoned, no doubt.
50:14
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, great man, Hey, good stuff. This was
50:17
a really good contextual conversation to have to marry the
50:21
analytics with. And I think again the overriding theme is
50:26
they have a better quarterback room now than last year,
50:28
just based on what the numbers in the context tells you.
50:31
Speaker 2: I think at what it says is at worst, it's
50:33
the same.
50:34
Speaker 1: At worst, absolutely, I think.
50:37
Speaker 2: That's I think that's a really important point because it
50:39
gives them a good floor.
50:40
Speaker 1: Right, really, you've just kind of let's say you're getting
50:43
Kenny Pickett because we just said how much the it
50:46
would just be like, all right, well this year McKee
50:49
has has been promoted to number two and Pickett has
50:52
devoted to number three, so pretty much you're right, at
50:55
worst it is the same room, just a different hierarchy. Yep,
50:58
so great stuff. All right, that is going to do
51:00
it for this episode of Inside the Data for Sam Finkel,
51:03
I'm Jeff Mosher. We thank you for watching catcha on
51:06
the next one,