Latest / Toadstool Sports / Monday BEST BETS | Marathon Monday | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 4/20/26

Transcript

Monday BEST BETS | Marathon Monday | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 4/20/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's what I'm gonna
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: start off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Bruins hat man. I don't know what is going on
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: with the Bruins. March eight, Is that what it is?
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's it's March ninth. I think
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: it did not go well for me. Own five, the
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: doing this, I don't know what to even tell you
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: about this anymore. The slumpy praise, the slump discontinuous, the
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: know what I should do at this point, other than
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: potentially end it all. What's up? Everybody's towed back with
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: you with toadstool sports is my camera doesn't focus here.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: It is Monday Marathon, Monday, April twentieth. I h a
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: lot of times I will talk about the marathon. I
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: have bet it before, which I don't know if I'm
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: allowed to say that, because you can't do it at
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: the h the actual books that you're allowed to use.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: This one, I mean, this wasn't one of the ones
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: that I was really interested in, Like the two favorites
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: were career. However, you pronounce his name, the guy that
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: won it last year, but it's really difficult to win
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: it two years in a row, obviously after you do
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: that the previous year. And I think he won it
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: with like a ridiculous score as well. And I think
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: the other guy was the guy that came in second
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: last year, Simbo or something like that. I forget his name,
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: But that guy obviously has experience with it and did
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: well in the in this particular race last year and
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: had a really good time, just came in second because
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: he was up against somebody else that ran a really
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: good race. So probably I would have gone with him
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: in this one as like a as some sort of
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: underdog underdog price. But I don't know what I'm doing
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: with the marathon man. Whatever. We're gonna talk about baseball.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox have an earlier game today. I do
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: have a play in that game, and I'm gonna have
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: a play in hockey, and I'm skipping the NBA today,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: and that's all I got today. We need to get
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: back on track. Yesterday Kansas City gave up like four
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: home runs and they couldn't score anything. So that was
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: just awesome. The game was dead like right away. Cole
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Reagan's had four walks in the first inning. He settled
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: down after that, I think, but it was just the
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: game was already over at that point. There's nothing you
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: could do. And then Texas Seattle we had to dodge that.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: We had to get no runs in the last like
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: three innings of the game to push it pushed, but
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: oh one to one day. Not happy about it. Let's
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: move on to today. Let's go. First game up is
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: at eleven am. Eleven ten am because it needs to
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: coincide with the Boston Marathon, as the Boston Marathon runs
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: sort of in that vicinity. Finishes on Boyleston Street near
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: the Public Library, which is you know, I mean that
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: specifically is probably about a twenty minute walk from where
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Fenway is, but you know what I mean, it's the
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: the city is mobbed and people start showing up. Well,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: people are already are going to be at the finish line,
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: but people kind of start showing up there like the
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: I think the marathon usually finishes, I don't know, like
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: sometime after the Red Sox game begins. I think I
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: don't know why they do it at this specific time,
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: but whatever it is, it's a madhouse in Boston. I've
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: been to the Red Sox game on this day before
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: and it's total insanity. Hard to get around, public transportations,
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: absolutely packed. People come in from all over the world
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: for the marathon. Whatever. It's insane. I don't even know
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: how many people are going to show up at this
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Red Sox game, but the Red Sox tend to have
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an advantage in this game for
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: whatever reason, because I think they're the only team that
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: really does something like this, so they're at least used
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: to playing this weird time. At this weird time, I
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: should say this is one of the best bets, and
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: we are actually going to be on the Red Sox
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: on the money line here to even this series against Detroit.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Everybody's pretty much shitting on the Red Sox. It's a
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: bad state of affairs. They just lost another game with
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Garrett Crochet on the mound whatever last time Crochet lost though.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Actually I was gonna say we took the Red Sox
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: to bounce back at one point. They did, but that
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: was two games after that against Minnesota. It was the
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: last game of that series, though, So we're gonna do
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: it again. We're gonna take them to bounce back after
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: two losses again, this time at home. I think the
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: Red Sox do have the better bullpen, so we will
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: go with that. They have the fourth best bullpen, which
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: has been one of the only good things about the team.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Detroits isn't bad, but still think the Red Sox have
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an advantage there. Detroit's offense has
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: been better, they've been middle of the pack. With the
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Red Sox offense has been terrible. But I weigh pitching
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: over hitting. As you know, Red Sox only these two
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday. Some of their best relievers are available today,
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: so the bullpen's in decent shape for this right use
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: a couple of their better relievers yesterday. Did not use
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: their closer, but they used three relief pitchers yesterday. And
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: I think we have a starting pitching edge with the
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Red Sox. Here we're gonna fade Jack Flaherty. I mean,
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: I know his numbers don't look too bad for Detroit
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: here four point zero five ERA, one point four whip.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: The whip is not good, though, and he has walked
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: three or more guys in every single outing. I know
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: his last two outing he's henly allowed one run apiece.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: But that doesn't tell the whole story, because again, his
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: command numbers are an issue. He's got twenty one strike
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: gots fourteen walks on the season. That's not good. Fourteen
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: hits allowed in twenty innings is good, but the command
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: basically tells you that he should regress a little bit.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: As far as the runs that he allows, and the
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Red Sox have hit him pretty well in fifteen nine
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: at bats. Twenty three to four strike a walk ratio
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: is a good ratio, but three h five batting average
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: allowed eight to twenty four ops. Those are not good numbers.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: So I think the Red Sox do have the ability
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: to hit Flaherty here. I think they could do it.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: I think the Red Socks do have the starting pitching
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: edge year, otherwise I would not be doing this. Sonny
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Gray pitching for the Red Sox. Okay, numbers four point
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: four to three ERA, but he does have the better
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: whip here one point two eight. You'd like to see
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: a little bit better than that. He did have his
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: worst start last time out against Minnesota. I don't know
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: what that was exactly, a hard hitting Minnesota team. The
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: one concern with Gray is his strike got rate is
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: down at eleven and twenty to third innings, but he's
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: only allowed four walks, so that's not too bad. Twenty
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: two hits the lowed isn't great, but his command still
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: seems to be all right. His problem recently has been
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: that he's getting older and he is a little bit
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: more hittable than usual. But I think he can get
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: through this game, even though he is going up against
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: a team that has seen him a bit, because he
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: used to be in this division for a bit when
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: he was on Minnesota, but that wasn't that recent. And
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: his numbers against Detroit are actually really good in seventy
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: one at bats thirty four to two strikeout walk ratio
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: one forty one batting average three fifty nine ops, so
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: he has really good numbers against them. I think he's
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: gonna be able to get through this one again. His
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: ground ball rate has been good, which plays well in Fenway.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: He had two good starts prior to that, starting against Minnesota.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: His best starts were both at home as well, so
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: he's been much better at home so far this year.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: So I think we could do it. We'll take Sonny
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Gray here, We'll take the Red Sox here to get
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: this win in this weird Monday scheduling spot Marathon Monday.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Some people call it miracle Monday because the Red Sox
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: have had multiple walkoff wins in this game in their history.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: One of them, I believe was an Alex Kora hit
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: and he is their manager now. Oh Man Red Sox
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: a run from minus one of five to minus one
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: thirty three I got. I see minus one thirty five
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: as the best price. I think it's still reasonable enough.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Sixty three percent of tickets, seventy nine percent of the
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: cash on the Red Sox. We'll do it. Red Sox
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: money line is the first play and my only baseball play,
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Houston at Cleveland. So some of these series are beginning
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: a new here. Houston, you gotta think they're gonna try
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: to bounce back. I mean, they've lost four games in
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: a row at home to Colorado and then getting swept
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: by Saint Louis. That is just ridiculous Saint Louis. I
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: know the record is good, but they're not a good
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: team now going out on the road, maybe Houston. Going
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: out on the road can help man when you're having
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: when you have like a bad home stand, you're not
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: playing well. One of the best things for is to
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: just going on the road focus on baseball. So that
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: could be what they do here. A couple of those
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: losses are pretty close as well, which I think when
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: you lose is a favorite. You know, you tend to
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: bounce back more often than if you have like a
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: close loss. As an underdog, they're gonna be playing at
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Cleveland here. Cleveland is staying at home. They did just
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: win a series against Baltimore, might be feeling a little
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: bit better about themselves here staying at home now. Of course,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Cleveland does have a huge edge in the bullpen. Houston's
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: bullpen is and bad, although they're now fourth worst, so
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: there are a few bullpens that are worse than that.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Cleveland's has struggled as well, though personnel wise they should
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: be the better bullpen, and well statistically they are, but
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: there's still seventeenth and their bullpen era is really bad. Offensively,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Houston does have the edge there. They have the third
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: best offensive ops. Cleveland is eighteenth, so we will give
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Houston the offensive edge. What else is new? Houston did
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: use four relief pitchers yesterday, so you don't like to
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: see that. So whatever you want to do with this game,
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: I would probably want to avoid Houston's bullpen. Cleveland did
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: uce four relief pitchers as well, though, and I guess
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: what I will say is that Cleveland does not have
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: the greatest bullpen, so their advantage in the bullpen is
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: not that gigantic. Spencer Arraghetty is pitching for Houston. We
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: have the matchup of the Italians Eric Gedty against Chacone.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: In this game, Eric Gedty has only made one start
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: this season, but it was pretty good. He went six innings.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: He gave it three hits, one run against Colorado. Four
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: walks was a problem, but maybe give him a pass
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: for that because it was his first game of the season.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: Maybe he was a little bit shakier. He also had
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: ten strikeouts, so that was good. Maybe we dial it
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: back a little bit because it was against Colorado. Colorado still,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: even though their offensive statistics aren't that bad, I still
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: don't think they're a good offense. Arraghetti did throw one
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: hundred pitches, so there is the warrior that he might
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: be a little bit tired after that. But that was
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: a good outing from him. So with that one outing,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: he has a one point five year ra and one
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: point one seven whip. I think he's a decent pitcher.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: And against who are we going up against here? Cleveland? Right? Yeah,
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: against Cleveland, they only have eleven at bats against him.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: They have one hit and it's a double by another
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Italian or Rochio. Four to four strike out walk ratio
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: is not that good. Oh ninety one batting average allowed
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: five to fifty seven ops though, so his numbers are
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: pretty good, very small sample though against Cleveland and Slay
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: Chacone pitching for Cleveland, he has not great numbers this year.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Five point zero three ERA, one point three seven whip.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: The walks have definitely been an issue for him. Ten
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: walks in nineteen to two thirds innings. That's not good. Cleveland,
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: in fact, has lost all four of his starts so far,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: all four of his appearances. I think they were all
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: starts eighteen to ten strike at walk ratio. It's not
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: good enough. It's too many walks. Seventeen hits allowed as fine,
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: but the walks have been his issue. Man. He walked
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: five guys in his last outing against Saint Louis, so
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: it looks like his form might not be the best
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: right now. His only good start was his own was
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: his only home start, though, so you got to take
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: that into account that he does appear to be better
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: at home based on that one start, and he is
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: at home here going against will he feel at home though?
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Going against Houston, though, his numbers are not good in
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: nineteen at bats five to two strike out walk ratio
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: three sixteen average allowed nine oh seven ops. So I
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: think Houston does a starting pitching edge and a situational edge.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: The money is actually back in Cleveland. I don't really
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: agree with it though, Cleveland dun for just one twenty
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: five to might want to eight on the money line.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: Fifty six percent of the tickets are on Houston public.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: They like the hitting man. The public I guess doesn't
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: care about recency here where Houston has lost a bunch
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: of games. I'm kind of surprised by that that they're
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: back in Houston here. Cleveland was sixty five percent of
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: the cash. I don't really agree. I would I would
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: probably go Houston first five innings money lined in this game,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: go with the starting pitching to be in Houston's favor here.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: It looks like it is. Houston might get off on
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: the right foot here because I think the situation is
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: better for Houston. I wouldn't disagree with going Houston full
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: game either, but the bullpen is definitely more of a
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: disadvantage to them, so I think first five Houston makes
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: sense in that game. Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: hanging out, Go Red Sox. I guess they fucking sucked, dude.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Kyle what's up? This is just a joke. They have
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: to fire their coaching. Finally, it's not the personnel. They
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: have a talented team. When your talented team is all underperforming,
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: you know that it's managing. It's coaching. They got to
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: fire them. A five inning win from Arraghetty, maybe Pete,
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: what's up man? Yeah? I mean yeah, Like I said,
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: I think I would just go first five. Yeah, with
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: Houston there to be leading after five innings, don't worry
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: about the bullpens. Cincinnati at Tampa Bay. Cincinnati is coming
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: off a sweep of Minnesota, having to travel from Minnesota
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: to Tampa Bay. Sometimes maybe not the greatest spot coming
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: off of a sweep to have to make a travel
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: leg like that. Tampa Bay is returning over from a
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: road trip, though, and you know I talk about how
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: that's usually not a good spot. It was only a
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: two series road trip, but they are coming back from
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Chicago and Pittsburgh. They did lose the series of Pittsburgh.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: But returning home a lot of times it throws you off.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: You had to get back to home life. The home
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: life could be a distraction. Whatever, So maybe not the
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: best spot for Tampa Bay here as far as the
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: bullpen usage yesterday, Tampa Bay used two relief pictures. That's
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: not too bad, but their bullpen had heavy usage on Saturday,
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: and their bullpen has not performed well this year. So
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati does have a better bullpen. These four relief pictures
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: yesterday though, so the usage yesterday was definitely heavier on
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: the Cincinnati side. But Cincinnati does have the better bullpen
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: here right now, they're thirteenth in whip. Tampa Bay is
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: somewhere near the bottom twenty first. Tampa Bay's bullpen Erray
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: is pretty bad though, so their bullpen definitely has been struggling,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: although I kind of think it's gonna start getting a
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: little bit better. Tampa Bay has hit pretty well this
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: year at tenth, the Reds have been dead last. This
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: is an ops, so the Reds offense has really struggled
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: so far despite playing any hit or friendly ballpark. But
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: they will have to play at the trop today, which
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: is maybe not as hit or friendly Tampa Bay, though
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: we don't know who their starter is gonna be, makes
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: it difficult to handicap. They have not listed a starter here.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: Rhett Louder is gonna pitch for Cincinnati. He's been pretty
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: good so far this year, three point five two ERA
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: one point one to three whip. His issue really has
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: kind of been the walks as well. I guess I
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: would say he's not a huge strikeout guy. He's got
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: fifteen strikeouts in twenty three innings, seven walks. That ratio
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: is not that good, but it's not that bad. And
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: then nineteen hits a lot in twenty three innings, so
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: really it's not really that bad. Overall. He's allowed four
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: fewer runs in all of his outings. The Reds have
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: won three of the four outings, so yeah, he's definitely
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: been at least serviceable here for the Reds here, using
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: his command, you know, to get through these games here,
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: and the Rays have never seen him before, which I
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: think is an advantage to some of these young pitchers,
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: and they haven't been seen before by the opposing hitters.
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: The hitters kind of have to take a while to
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: figure them out. So I'm gonna lean to Cincinnati here.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: I think situationally bullpen edge, even though they did use
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: four relief pitchers yesterday. Starting pitching, to me, looks like
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be an advantage. I don't know if Tampa's
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: gonna go with a bullpen game here or what they're
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: gonna do hard to say because we don't know. But
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: we are getting the Reds at a little bit of
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: an underdog price here with Tampa at minus one twenty.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: I'll lean to the Reds, but again we don't have
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: enough information to necessarily go on for that game. Do
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: with that in information what you want. By the way,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: as far as information goes that Royals Yankees game, I
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: think the rain delay. There was a huge rain delay
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: that delayed the start of that game. I wasn't even
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: sure if the starters were gonna start in that game yesterday.
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: That was one of those games where when you play
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: the game, you know to like starting listed starting pitchers
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: must start in the game or whatever, and you play
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: it that way like you have a chance that your
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: bet is just not gonna happen and it's gonna push
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: because the starting pitchers might not actually start. But in
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: that game they did so at least they think they
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: did so. Yeah, so we wound up counting whatever. I'm
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: also mad that, you know, my gauge on Toronto. I
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: was completely against the market in that Toronto game, but
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: they absolutely bombed Ryan Nelson in that game. So I
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: was correct about that game. I was not correct about
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: the Philadelphia side though, I don't know, or Minnesota, so
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: I you know, my gauge wasn't too great yesterday all
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: things considered. Not happy about it, but yes, the starting
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: pitchers did both go in that Royal Yankee game yesterday.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: I have no voice right now, man, I don't think
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: I can even do this show today. Saint Louis at Miami.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: We have like eleven baseball games today. I think Miami
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: just beat Milwaukee. Maybe you could argue that's gonna be
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot, but they're staying at home and they
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: ended up four game losing streak. So a lot of
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: times when a team ends a losing streak, they will
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: have some new momentum. So maybe that will be the
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: case with Miami here. Saint Louis is overperforming right now, man,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: and they're traveling in from Houston. They just swept Houston.
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: They've won five games in a row. I'm not buying
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: this at all. This start for Saint Louis. I'm really
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: not so. I think they could be in maybe a
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: bigger let down here after a sweep where they were
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: an underdog in every single game. I don't know if
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: I love Saint Louis here. I definitely don't love their bullpen.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: They did use a lot of it yesterday too. These
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: five relief pitchers yesterday, and they're the lesser bullpen here.
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: Miami used four, but they only used Foucher. Fauche for
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: two bitches here, Foucher for two pitches, so he'd probably
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: be available again if they want to use him. Miami,
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: their bullpen's been al right this year. They're eleventh right
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: now in bullpen whip. Saint Louis is somewhere near the bottom.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: We had twenty third with a really bad bullpen era,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: so Miami has a better bullpen animal rested bullpen. Miami's
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: offense has been fairly good as well, at ninth right now,
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: which is not bad. Saint Louis has been better than expected.
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: They are thirteenth right now, but Miami seems to have
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: the better hitting here. Michael mcgrievo is pitching for Saint Louis.
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: He's off to a good start this season. A two
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: point four to ninety or a point eighty three whip,
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: those are definitely good numbers. He doesn't strike guys out. Really,
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: he's got twelve strikeouts in twenty one to two thirds innings,
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: but he's not put a lot of guys on base either.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: Three walks, fifteen hits. That's pretty good. He's keeping guys
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: off the base. Pass Saint Louis has won three of
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: his four outings. He's allowed no more than three or
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: in runs in any of them. He's got at least
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: five innings, and three of the four he's pitching pretty well.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: He's been a little bit worse on the road, though.
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: It's one bad start, if you want to call it.
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: That was at Detroit against Miami. I always have to
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: switch over me because ESPN does not update right away.
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: I hate that they only have nineteen of bats against them,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: so that they're not that familiar with them. But four strikeouts,
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: no walks, three sixteen batting average allowed seven to eighty
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: nine ops. So his numbers small sample, but his numbers
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: are not that good against Miami. Max Meyer is pitching
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: for Miami. I think there might be more. I think
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: he has a higher ceiling. Max Meyer, let's say he
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: has more upside. I think he's he's got better strikeout stuff.
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: He just has better stuff, So he may be able
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: to outpitch mcgreev. I think McGreevy like basically what you
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: see is what you get, Like he's not gonna strike
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: guys out, but he's gonna basically induce like weak contact
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: and whatever. Meyer is a guy that can actually blow
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: people away. Meyer hasn't really his career hasn't really taken
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: off though, and he's already twenty seven, so that is
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: a concern. Four point one two era this year, one
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: point three two whip. Not horrible. You'd like to see
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: that whip be better, though. He has more than one
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: strike got an inning here, but and he's allowed fewer
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: than one hit per inning. But he's had nine walks
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: along with the twenty strike gouts in nineteen and two
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: thirds innings. So the wildness is the problem with them.
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: He's not gone more than five innings in any outing.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: He's got to get that wildness under control. Man that's
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: been the issue against Saint Louis. He's held them down
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: in a small sample size twelve at bats, one strike,
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: got one walk, He's allowed a home run to Gorman,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: but other than that, he's held them to a one
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: sixty seven average seven thirty one ops, so Meyer does
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: have a little bit of the upper hand here. I
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: think situationally doesn't really favorite Saint Louis that much, and
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: I think Miami has a better bullpen with a little
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: bit more rest, So I'm gonna lean to Miami in
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: this one. I think Meyer still might be a little
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: bit under the radar. I think McGreevy might be a
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: little bit overperforming here. Miami is getting the money there.
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: It mightus won twenty six right now, fifty two per ticket,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: seventy eight percent of the cash on Miami, so the
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: money is agree with Miami there. That would be my
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: lean would be Miami. You think the Red Sox might
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: sweep the Yankees. I don't think so. No way. I
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: don't even think Crochet is lined up to pitch in
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: that series. No, there's no way. If you look at
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching matchups in that game, they could win
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: early versus Heel, the Red Sox definitely could win that game.
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: I don't know about the rest though. Let me see
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: Freed against Suarez. Yeah, you know, I guess that is
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: winnable as well. On Wednesday, Schlitler against Bao. There's no
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: chance the Red Sox win that game. None. No chance
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: that they went on Thursday. The Red Sox might be
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: able to go to and one in that series would
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: would be my guess. They need to start playing better.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: Their offense needs to be way better than it is
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: right now. They have huge problems right now. And again
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: it's not the talent, it's the managing, the coaching. Atlanta
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: at Washington is on ESPN Unlimited here. Washington was able
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: to avoid the sweep yesterday by shutting out San Francisco.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: They are staying at home. Might not be the worst
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: spot for Washington here, even though that was a big win.
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: Sometimes teams off of shutouts will be somewhat in letdown mode,
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: but probably not here. I mean, it's a big deal
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: for them to be playing Atlanta. Atlanta's been really hot
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: to start the season. It's a divisional series. Washington will
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: show up here and Atlanta, I mean, they're hot right now.
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: They've won five in a row, all divisional games. That
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: just swept Philadelphia on the road, So you want to
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: talk about letdown. Even though Philadelphia is not off to
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: a good start, that's still a big series sweep for Atlanta,
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: so they could be in more of a letdown spot
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: coming into Washington. Here, Atlanta has had the better bullpen though,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: and pretty significant significantly so, although Atlanta did u his
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: five relief pitchers yesterday, and some of these teams played
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: extra inning games by the way, Cincinnati played extra innings yesterday,
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis and Houston did, Minnesota with Cincinnati, and then
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Cubs and Mets did, and some of those teams are
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: playing today, which we're talking about some of them. So
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: the teams, some of those teams went into extra innings.
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: But you can kind of see how it affected the
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: bullpens just by looking at the bullpen usage though, which
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: I think is more important than what happens to the
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: hitting really, because hitting doesn't take as much out of
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: you man, you know, even fielding base running does it.
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: It's really the pitching that does because you're, you know,
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: just totally worked up on every single play. But yes,
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: Atlanta used five of their relief pitchers yesterday, which is
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: not great. Washington's bullpen is definitely worse, but they only
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: use one relief pitcher, so Washington does have a bullpen
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: rest advantage here. But Atlanta's had the best bullpen in
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: baseball so far this year somehow, and Washington's is one
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: of the several worst, so even with the rest, I
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: don't even know if that negates that entirely. Washington's bullpen,
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: you know, maybe it evens evens the playing field a
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: little bit as far as the bullpens, and Atlanta's also
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: had the second best offense so far in Washington's been fifth.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: I'm not so sure that is gonna continue. I don't know. Yeah,
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: I don't really see that continuing. But the offensive hit
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: well so far. Maybe this is gonna be a game
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: where they do hit. Bryce Elders pitching for the Braves here.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: He has really good numbers so far this year, with
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: a point seven to seven ERA, which is unheard of,
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: and one point zero three WHIP. Obviously there's gonna be
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: a regression here though. Elder dude, I mean, he's hard
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: to figure out because he had this lull where he
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: was just pitching horribly. I think he was coming back
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: from injury. He was pretty good earlier in his career.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: Since the end of last season, like late last season,
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: he's been pitching better again. Not really a strikeout guy,
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: but this year his strikeout numbers are pretty good twenty
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: three and twenty three and a third innings, seven walks,
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: seventeen hits allowed. None of this is bad. He's allowed
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: no runs in three of his four starts, all three
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: of those with wins. He picked up a winning two
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: of those, but the Braves won all three games. They've
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: only lost once with him on the mound. That's some
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: pretty crazy stuff. His numbers against Washington are really not
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: good though. In forty four at bats, four to two
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio three eighty six average allowed, nine
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: point fifty eight ops. That is not the type of
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: thing you want to see. That's not good. He is
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: going up against Jake Irvin, which website keep miss clicking here.
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: I want to keep the schedule up. Jake Irvin not
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: off to a good start this season. Six point one
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: six y ray, one point four to seven whip. These
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: are bad numbers, dude. Too many walks, twenty one strikeouts,
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: eleven walks in nineteen innings, seventeen hits allowed. The strike
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: out rate is good, the walk rate is not good,
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: and he's allowed eight walks in his last two starts.
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: Home start wasn't as bad as far as wildness, but
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: he got lit up anyway by the Dodgers. I know
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: it's the Dodgers, but still didn't pitch well in that
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: home start either. Atlanta also has been hitting pretty well
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: this year, so I don't know if this is gonna
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: be that easy for him. His numbers against Atlanta are okay,
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: They've seen a lot of them. Eighty eight at bats,
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: ten to eighteen excuse me, eighteen to ten, strikeout walk
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: ratio not great, two point fifty batting average allowed, seven
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: oh two ops. Those are mediocre numbers. I'm gonna lean
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: over in this game. You have two offenses that are
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: definitely capable. Washington's bullpen is bad. Atlanta used a lot
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: of their bullpen yesterday, so their bullpen might struggle in
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: this one as well. Elder probably is gonna regress a
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: little bit. He has bad matchup numbers, and Irvin is
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: just not good. So there are a lot of components
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: that make it seem like an over makes sense here.
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: The total actually dropped from nine juice to the over
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: to eight to the over. Pretty significant move there. So
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: you're at a pretty good number there with eight uh
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: seventy percent of tickets ninety five percent of the cash
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: on the over, so the money looks like it is
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: kind of agreeing on the over I'll agree with the
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: over there. Atlanta's also down to minus one fifty five
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: on the money line. I still don't really know if
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: Elder deserves to be that much of a road favored,
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: although I don't think Washington's very good. Eighty four percent
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: of tickets eighty three percent of the cash on Atlanta
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: and Lanta is definitely a public side with less of
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: the money on them. I'd probably agree with it and
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: lean to Washington. You could go first five innings to
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: take out the disastrous Washington bullpen, but maybe you don't
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: even want to because their bullpen is at least rested,
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: and the situation kind of lines up on Washington. So
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: I would lean to Washington, but I think my preference
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: in that game would be over all. Right. Yeah, Brad,
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: you're on the red Sox Houston and Washington, and I
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: agree with those Hawks at Teawls Penguin Stars. Yeah, you're
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: you're spraying the board too much, man. I think you're
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: not being selective enough in my opinion. But I do
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: have a play. Both of my plays are included in those.
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: I will tell you that I have two plays today
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: and they are you mentioned. Both of them. We already
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: know the Red Sox is one of them. The other
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: one is in hockey, Baltimore at Kansas City. And I
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: think I actually agree with all of those. But those
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: NBA ones, I yeah, I just don't want any part
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: of those NBA ones. It's just yeah, underdogs that expectedly
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: lose the first game. I got nothing as far as
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: that's concerned. Kansas City is playing Baltimore. Kansas City's lost
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: seven games in a row, sorry, Zach. They're coming off
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: getting swept by the Yankees. Maybe Kansas City is not
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: this bad though, because they lost at Detroit and at
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: the Yankees. Those are pretty good teams, you know, so
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: maybe you gotta give them pass for that. Kin's City
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: is returning on from a road trip though, so that
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: is a problem. This game is on Fox Sports one.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: It looks like, you know, I talk about when teams
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: are turning on from road trips, a lot of times
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: they won't bounce back and they will have a little
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: bit of an issue having to get back to home
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: life whatever. So that's not great for Kansas City. Baltimore
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: might be a bit focused because they've been on a
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: bad losing stretch as well. They've lost five of six here,
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: losing the series to Cleveland. They might show up, you know,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: their their travel spot's a little bit better just going
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: from Cleveland to Kansas City here in the middle of
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: a road trip, so situational. The situation does favor Baltimore here. Baltimore,
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: believe it or not, does have the better bullpen here.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: Kansas City is dead last right now in bullpen whip
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: and their era is one of the worst as well,
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: I think the worst. That's not good, very very bad
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: Kansas City bullpen so far, even though I thought they
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: wouldn't be anywhere near this bad because they weren't this
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: bad last year at all. Baltimore bullpen has actually been
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: pretty decent. They're third actually in bullpen whips, so Baltimore
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: definitely has had the better bullpen. Kiss the City's offense
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: hasn't been good either, the third worst Baltimore not great,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: but at twentieth in ops. So Baltimore has the better
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: offense as well. So Baltimore has the situation, the bullpen,
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: the offense. Baltimore only us two relief pitchers yesterday. That's
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: pretty good for them. Kiss of City used three, so
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: Baltimore has a little bit more rest in their bullpen
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: as well. A lot of things favorite Baltimore, but I
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: don't know if the starting pitching does. Bradish is pitching
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: for Baltimore, Kyle Bradish. His numbers are not good this
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: year five point four to ninety RA, one point six
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: y three whip, although if you look at his career,
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: he should improve from this. His numbers are not that
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: bad throughout his career. He hasn't gotten annihilated in any
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: of his starts. He's allowed four or fewer earned runs
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: in every outing, so it hasn't been maybe as bad
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: as it appears. Nineteen to two thirds innings. He's allowed
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: too many hits, twenty two too many walks. Ten strike
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: out rate is pretty good though, at twenty one decent
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: ground ball rate as well above the fly ball rates,
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: So I do think Bradish is going to get better
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: than this. I don't think his numbers totally tell the
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: whole story. Here. He is going up against Kansas City
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: offense that has not been good, so he might be
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: able to do well against them here. Uh yeah, They've
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: only had eleven at bats against him. Only three of
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: their hitters have ever even seen him. One extra base
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: hit a double from India three zero strikeout walk ratio
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: one eighty two average, allowed four to fifty five ops.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: Bradish fairly unfamiliar to Kansas City and the guys that
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: have tried to hit against him haven't done well. So
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: Bradish might do okay here, but he is gonna have
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: to go up against Seth Lugo, who is having a
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: good season again. The advanced analytics guys continue to not
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: like him, and I keep saying, well, I think he's
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: a decent pitcher, you know, I think I keep getting
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: proven right. I don't think he's this good. I think
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: he will regress. But one point four to eighty r
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: a point nine to nine whip can't really complain about that.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: His strikeout rate not crazy high, but twenty one in
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: twenty four and a third. He's only allowed six walks
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: in eighteen hits, so he's keeping runners off the basis.
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: He's only allowed or two or fewer on runs in
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: every outing, one or fewer and three of the four
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: A couple of these outings, the offense just didn't help
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: him at all. He's he's been good in every single
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: start pretty much. So Lugo is pitching well right now.
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Baltimore here. His numbers against Baltimore
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: are pretty good. They only have four hitters have faced
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: him twenty at bats. They only have two hits, one
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: extra base hit a double from Henderson, two extra base
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: hits a home run sorry from Cowser. Seven to two
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio, one hundred average allowed, four eighty
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: two ops. I would go under in this game, is
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: what I would do. The money seems like it's agreeing
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: total has flipped to nine. Juice to the under. You
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: want to try to get that under nine if you can. Here.
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: I worry about Bradish, you know, in his current form here,
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I like the under. Eighty percent of tickets
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: ninety percent of the cash on the under. This one's
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: not quite on my card, but the matchup numbers look
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: pretty good to me. Kansas City's bullpen is an issue,
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: so if you want to go under first five innings,
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: you definitely could do that too, just to take Kansas
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: City's bullpen out of the equation. Baltimore's bullpen might hold
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: up there end of the bargain though, and the money
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: is coming in on Baltimore, and I don't really disagree
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: with that. Like I said, I think Baltimore has a
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: situational advantage here. Plus Bradish I think is better than
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: he looks at the very least, and Baltimore's bullpen and
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: hitting are better. Minus one ten is the price there.
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: It's basically picked the winner. Sixty five percent of the
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: cash on Baltimore, sixty seven percent of tickets on Kansas City.
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty surprised Kansas City, with their bad stretches, getting
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: this amount of tickets. But you know, Baltimore has not
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: been playing well either recently. But yeah, I would lean Orioles,
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: but I think I would prefer Actually first five under
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: is probably my preference in that game, but I don't
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: want to put that one on my card. Philadelphia at
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: the Cubs. This is a pretty good matchup here. Cubs
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: are hot right now. They've won five in a row.
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: Just swept the Mets, who can't seem to win a
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: game ever. Cubs had to go to extra innings to
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: do it yesterday. But they are staying at home. Philadelphia
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: coming in from home after getting swept and losing five
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: in a row. This is also quick revenge, by the way,
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: because Philadelphia just played the Cubs at home prior to that.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: And that started this losing streak with the Cubs putting
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: up double digit runs in each of the last two
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: games after Philadelphia did it in the first game of
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: that series. So this is kind of a quick revenge
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: spot for Philadelphia. So Philadelphia might have a little bit
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: of an extra motivational edge here for that reason. Probably
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: has been leaning towards Philadelphia based on the situation. As
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: far as the bullpens, Yeah, the Cubs had to go
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: to extra innings. These four relief pitchers, you know, that's
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: a decent amount. Philadelphia did use even more though Philadelphia's five.
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: I think did they go into extra innings yesterday too? No,
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: but Philadelphia played the night game. That's the other thing
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: I forgot to mention. Atlanta and Philadelphia both played the
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: night game, so that might be a little bit of
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: a fade spot. They're especially a fate of Atlanta because
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: they won the night game. Atlanta having to do a
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: quick turnaround time and Atlanta's having to travel to Washington.
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia is having to travel to Chicago, so both teams
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: are having to travel. So that is a negative that
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: quick turnaround time off of the night game. Good thing
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: I remember that because I forgot. That might be the
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: one thing that keeps me off of Philadelphia here, because
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: I like Philadelphia in this game. I think otherwise looking
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: at the bullpens, Philadelphia, their whip is better than their
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: ERA looks, so they haven't been that bad. They're actually
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: ninth in bullpen whip Cubs or eighth, so both bullpens
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: have been fine. As far as the hitting, the Cubs
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: have started coming around. There's sixth now in all offense.
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: The Cubs have definitely started hitting. Philadelphia has not. Philadelphia's
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: twenty third right now in offense, so Chicago does have
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: the better offense here. The Cubs obviously not the White Sox,
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: but Philadelphia might come around at some point. Man. Their
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: offense has too much talent to be this poor on offense.
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: Aaron Nola's pitching, He's been okay this season so far.
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: Four point zero three ERA one point three whip is
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: definitely a bit too high. He's trying to come back
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: from injury. Man, he had a really difficult season last
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: year trying to come back from injury. Started pitching better
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: at the end of the year, and he hasn't been
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: that bad this year. He has a twenty four to
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: six strikeout walk ratio in twenty two and a third innings,
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: So his command is good, his strikeout rate is there,
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: the walks aren't that bad. He's allowed one hit more
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: than the amount of innings pitch basically, which even that's
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: not that bad. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: in every outing. He's not pitching that badly mental though, Yes,
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: the Cubs just saw him, but like I said, sometimes
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: that's an advantage to the hitters when the hit just
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: saw a pitcher because they're used to him. But but
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: the guy like Nola that's been around for so long,
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: the Cubs has seen him a ton, so I don't
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: think the fact that they just saw him is really
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: gonna help them that much. And he might pitch a
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: little bit better because he actually didn't pitch that well
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: in that game. Overall, his numbers are pretty good against
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: the Cubs. They have two hundred and seven at bats
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: against him, fifty seven to sixteen strike out walk ratio
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: is not too bad. To seventeen batting average allowed six
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: thirty one ops. Yeah, Nola has done pretty well against
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: them for the most part. He's going up against Colin Ray,
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: who I think is overperforming this year. His numbers are
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: good three point six three ERA point nine to eight whip. Yeah,
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: that's good stuff. He's allowed three or four earned runs
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: in all of his outings as well. His first outing
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: was a relief appearance. Then I think he's had to
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: join the starting rotation after Cad Horton got hurt, or
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: actually maybe I think he's only made two starts actually
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: after two relief appearances. I think that's the case. And
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: again the advantage that the hitters might have it gets
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: negated because Ray just pitched in that series against Philadelphia
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: as well, and he pitched pretty well. He went six innings,
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: he had three on runs. If Nola pitched in the
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: same game, Ray actually outpitched him. Uh yeah. Ray actually
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: was was a follower in that game, so Ray actually
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: starting front of him. So I would say, if you
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: want this game, you pretty much know that Ray is
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: gonna come in and probably pitch five or six innings,
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: but they might put an opener in front of him.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: So what I would say is, if you're if you're
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: going to handicap this game, handicap it like he is starting,
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: but play it action because the Cubs might put an
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: opener in front of him, and that doesn't change the
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: handicap that much, you know what I mean. As long
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: as Ray is going to be pitching for a starter's
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: workload in the game, your handicap is still going to
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: be pretty much on point for the game. So I
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: would say go action on this one, just because the
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: Cubs have a habit of putting an opener in front
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: of Ray, but he's pitched better that way against Philadelphia.
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: His numbers are not bad and one hundred and six
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: at bats, twenty four to three strikeout walk ratio, two
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: thirty six average allowed, six forty four ohps, so he
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: has pitched pretty well. I think it's a little bit
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: of a wash. The money is coming into the Cubs.
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: They flip from plus one oh two to minus one ten,
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: fifty to fifty on the tickets, fifty nine percent of
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Cubs. I'm gonna lean to Philadelphia,
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: though I think Philadelphia might have a slight edge in
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: this game. Uh. Starting pitching wise, bullpens are pretty close.
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: Maybe the bullpen rest helps Philadelphia a little bit. Hitting
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: I think should come around a little bit, even though
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: the Cubs do have a little bit of an advantage
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: there and I think the situation favors Philly and what
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: I think is a pretty close matchup here, which odds
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: makers are telling you it is. I would lean Philly
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: in that one. All right, let me see, we're only
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: forty one minutes here, all right, Dodgers at Colorado. These
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: teams are finishing a series. Colorado, I believe it or not,
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: won the last two games so far the series, So
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers are trying to even the series here, man.
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, the Dodgers are the better team, and they
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: might show up here after losing two games in the series.
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: They don't want to lose the series to the Rockies.
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: So I think you might actually get motivation out of
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers. And maybe it's a situation where they won't
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: be looking ahead, even though they do play savored Cisco next,
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: which I already mentioned. But yeah, the Dodgers having to
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: play game or they in course field where they might
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: actually have to put in an effort. That's that's something.
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: The Dodgers used a lot of their relief pitching yesterday.
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: They used six relievers yesterday. That's not good. Colorado only
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: used three. Dodgers' bullpen has been pretty good so far.
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: They're sixth right now in WHIP, but Colorado's has not
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: been that bad. I don'tbelieve where they at. Yeah, they're
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: at seventh, so Colorado more rested bullpen might actually help
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: them a little bit in this game. Dodgers obviously the
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: number one offense. I mean, I think that's legitimate. They've
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: been there pretty much all seasons so far, and I
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: don't see them. I don't see them not being there
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: for the rest of the season. I think they'll be
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: pretty much right there. Colorado has fallen off of it.
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: There's seventeenth on offense right now. Though they do hit
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: better at home, they've been hitting a bit better in
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: this series. Justin Robleski is pitching for the Dodgers. He's
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: pitched well so far two point one two ERA points,
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: seven to six WHIP. He's definitely not a strikeout guy.
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: He only has six strikeouts in seventeen innings, five walks,
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: so that ratio is obviously not good, but only eight
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: hits allowed. He's keeping runners off the bases. I think
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: he will regress a little bit. I don't think he's
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: this good, but you know, he's a guy that comes
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: out there. He could do okay. Relies on command. You know,
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: he's coming up an eight inning shutout of the Mets,
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: but we know the Mets haven't been hitting well at
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: all recently. But yeah, you can't knock what he's done
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: so far. And his numbers against the Rockies are alright,
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: seventeen at bats. They don't have that many at bats
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: against him. Four zero strikeout walk ratio, two thirty five
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: average allowed, five twenty nine ohps. That's not bad. He
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: is going up against Mose Kintana, so we have two
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: non strikeout pitchers here, two pitchers that rely on control.
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: Kintana has not had a good season so far five
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: point six three ERA, one point eight to eight whip
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: and he hasn't even pitched a course field yet, so
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: that's not a good sign. I looked at his history.
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: He hasn't pitched a course field for like years. Robleski
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: actually pitched in course field twice last year and he
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: actually had a five inning, seven strikeout, two run performance
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: in like a start. Basically, I think it was a
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: starter or a starter's workload game in course field. I'm
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: talking about Robleski right now. And he had a relief
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: appearance that wasn't as good but he didn't allow any
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: runs in it, although he put a couple guys on base.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: So Robleski did pitch in course field last year twice
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: he pitched Okay, Kintana hasn't pitched in the stadium. He's
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: probably pitched there before, but I think it's been years
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: since he's pitched in this stadium, so that might not
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: be good for him. For Kintana, so Robleski has more
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: familiarity with the stadium. Kintana against the Dodgers hasn't been
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: that good and ninety at bats thirteen thirteen strike out
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is not good. Otani has three on the
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: runs off him in seven at bats, two sixty seven
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: average allowed, eight fifty nine ops. Not great. I think
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers get this game, but how do you play
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: this You can't lay minus two fifty five on the
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: road with Robleski on the mound man ninety three percent
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: of tickets, ninety six percent of the cash on the Dodgers.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess you could run line the Dodgers year,
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: but you're gonna need them to win by multiple runs.
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: That doesn't seem great. The money's coming in on the
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: over if you want to go over Dodgers team told
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: you could do that. You're gonna need them to put
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: up like seven runs in the game though, if you
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: want that. So hey, I don't know, man, I don't
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: see a great way of playing this game. I really don't.
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you want to get this price somehow down,
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: maybe you go with like Robleski to get a win
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: in the game and hope that the Dodgers bullpend holes,
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: hope that they have the lead once he goes out
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: of the game. I don't know if you can rely
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: on him to actually necessarily get you five innings into
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: the game though, So I don't love that either. Yeah,
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: I do think the best way to probably play it
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: is Dodgers over their team total. But you're gonna need
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: him to get a lot of runs in that one
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: for that to happen. I don't love it, man. The
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: game is like the game is, basically it's unplayable pretty much.
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: Total is at eleven and a half, so it's you know,
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: it's a course field total. Let's just put it that way.
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: Toronto at Anaheim. Anaheim just lost two games to San
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: Diego at home. They're staying at home here, so Anaheim
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: might bounce back from that. Toronto did beat Arizona on
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: the end of the four game losing streak yesterday, so
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: they're coming into this game with some new moment here
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: as well, So not really a negative for either team here.
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: Neither of these bullpens are good. Anaheim, let me see,
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: they use only two relievers yesterday, so that's not bad
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: for them. Toronto used three. So the bullpens, you know,
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: they're not totally used up right now, but they haven't
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: been good. Let me see here, Angels twenty second in
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: bullpen whip. That's not good. Toronto nineteenth bad bullpen numbers here,
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: so these are definitely fatable bullpens. Angels have hit pretty
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: well so far this year. They're at eighth in offense,
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: so they have definitely been producing runs. Toronto they've you know,
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: they have a decent offense, but they've dealt with injuries
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: and stuff. They're at sixteenth right now. But definitely both
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: teams can put up runs if you want, if you
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: want them to. Don't see suspicion for Toronto. His numbers
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: do look good one point seven to four ERA, one
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: point two to six whip, but the same issues that
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: cease always have have not ceased. He's walked multiple guys
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: in every outing. He's walked three or more in his
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: last three outings. Granted, maybe you give him a pass
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: because he faced the Dodgers in Milwaukee. The last two
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: only give him one earned run across those eleven innings.
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: But he's not going deep into games. He's inefficient with
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: his pitches. His strikeout rate is almost too high at
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: thirty two and twenty into two thirds innings, only allowed
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: fourteen hits. Yeah, he's unhittable. He's getting a lot of strikeouts,
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: but he's wild. Twelve walks is insane, way too many walks,
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: and yeah, I don't know, man, I just think Cease
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: is a bit overrated. He does not take full advantage
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: of how good his strikeouts stuff is, and he doesn't
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: get you deep enough into games a lot of the time.
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: Against the Angels, he's done well though. In eighty six
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: at bats are really good thirty four to four strikeout
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: walk ratio and all four walks are so Layer who's
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: one for twenty three off him with thirteen strikeouts, and
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: Trout is one for nine with six strikeouts off him,
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: So he's really kind of dominated these guys. One eighty
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: six batting I was allowed five to fifty nine ops.
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: He's dominated the two best hitters in this line up
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: pretty much, so the matchup is pretty good for Cease.
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: Here he's going up against Reed Dettmers, who was supposed
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: to pitch yesterday. I don't know why Stark got pushed back.
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: I handicapped him yesterday, but I guess we have to
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: re handicap him. Read handicap. He's got three A three
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: point five to seventy RRA, one point six whip. Not
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: bad numbers this year at all. Twenty six to six
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio in eighteen hits allowed in twenty two
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: and two thirds innings. None of that is bad. However,
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: his worst outing did come at home here against Atlanta,
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: but we know Atlanta has been hitting pretty well. He
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: is going up against a team that has not been
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: hitting quite as well here in Toronto. Dettmers is also
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: coming off his best start, where he went to the
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: Bronx and held the Yankees to one on run in
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: seven innings, nine strikeouts, no walks. Maybe he'll be in
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a letdown though after that. Like
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: I said yesterday, that was almost too good of a
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: start for him there against Toronto. His numbers are decent
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: and forty five at bats, five to two, strike out
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: walk ratios whatever. Not great, but too sixty seven average
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: allowed six to seventy six ohps. They haven't really been
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: able to hit debt mes too well. I think an
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: undermakes sense in this game, dude, the money's coming in
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: towards the over. I would go first, five under. I
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: think the money has actually driven the total down as well,
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: though it gets on eight juice to the under. You
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: might be looking at a seven and a half here,
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: which is really crazy for a Toronto Anaheim game. Fifty
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets are on the under here, but ninety
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over. I think under
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: first five innings actually makes a lot of sense here, though,
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: given this these matchup numbers here, that might be the
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: way I would play this. I don't mind Toronto in
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: the game either, really, I think the situation is a
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: little bit better for them. Maybe Toronto's at minus one twenty.
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: I don't fully trust Cease, but six tickets ninety two
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Toronto. You know Toronto they're
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: hitting probably isn't too much worse. Their bullpen might be
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: a little bit better than Anaheims started pitching. Probably is
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an edge for Toronto. So I
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: don't disagree with Toronto, but I think under first five
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: might be the better approach at Again, like I said,
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: the cash percent is not agreeing with that. Oh you're yeah,
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: you were reacting to what I said earlier. Yeah, yes,
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: you see, Yeah, you gotta be more select man, That's
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: what I'm saying. My win loss record, I mean, it's
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: this is like unsustainably good. But yeah, like you know,
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, I've been doing this for almost two decades
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: and my win loss record over that entire Sman is
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: a winning record, you know, so and profitable. A's at
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: Seattle is the last game here, so we're in pitcher
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: friendly Seattle again. Seattle's staying at home. They did just
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: win the series against Texas. Don't know, they're really gonna
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: come and overlook the A's though, because Seattle can't really
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: overlook teams here right now. Seattle actually behind the A's
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: in the standing, so they really can't overlook them. The
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: A's are gonna show up too, though. The A's just
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: lost a home series to the White Sox. That's not good.
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: So I think they're gonna show up with some effort.
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: They get to go out on the road, start a
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: road trip, staying in the Pacific time zone. Usually that
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: is a focused spot. So I think both teams are
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: gonna want to get this game. A's bullpen use three
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday. They're definitely the lesser of the two bullpens,
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: though Seattle only US two. You gotta give Seattle a
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: bullpen edge here. Seattle has fallen off a little bit
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: in the bullpen numbers. They're at sixteenth right now, but
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: their ERA is at least pretty good, not a bad bullpen.
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: The A's bullpen is not very good at twenty fifth,
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: They're not a good bullpen. A's might have the slightly
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: better offense right now. Both offenses have underperformed though A's
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: twenty second Seattle twenty fourth in overall ops, so I
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: don't know about that, but yeah, I mean, I think
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: both offenses are better than what they've shown so far.
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: J T. Ginn is pitching for the A's here, good
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: numbers on the season, three point three one ERA, point
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: nine to eight whip, but you know, you dive into
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: his numbers a little bit, well, First of all, he
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: has mostly made relief appearances, so that's kind of a concern.
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: Eleven to seven strike out walk ratio is certainly not good.
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: It's way too many walks and sixteen to third innings.
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: Not much of a strikeout guy. He's only allowed nine hits.
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: But I mean, I think he's like kind of a
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: serviceable pitcher. He gets a picture friendly environment here, but
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's that trustworthy of a pitcher really.
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: Going up against Seattle, his numbers are mediocre and fifteen
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: at bats it's not many at bats, five to one
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio two sixty seven average allowed, seven
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: to thirteen ops. Not great really, but not horrible. He's
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: going up against Emerson Hancock, who is pitching pretty well
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: this year. Two point two eighty ra point six Evans
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: six whip. Hancock has been good so far this year, man,
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: really nice looking twenty five to four strikeout walk ratio
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: along with fourteen hits allowed in twenty three and two
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: thirds innings. Hancock is on fire right now. He's struggled
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: early in his career, but maybe you know he might
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: be coming around here, man, if he's good and Seattle
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: has him, and you know, Gilbert Kirby wu this is
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: like a really really good starting pitcher rotation, and they're
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: pretty good. You know, a lot of these guys pitch
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: pretty well at home. For Hancock, it doesn't really seem
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: to matter that much. He's been good either way. He's
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: pitching really well this year. But you gotta worry about
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: maybe regression here, because if you look at his career numbers,
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: they're not near this. But maybe he's found you know,
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: maybe he's figured it out and he's starting to actually
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: become a really good pitcher. That is possible. He's young
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: enough that, you know, maybe that is the case. I
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: think he might be more trustworthy than Gain here. His
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: numbers against the A's are pretty good. In twenty three
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: at bats four to two, strike out walk ratio one
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: seventy four, batting average a lot five eighty eight. Oh
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: ps uh, yeah, I mean the money is fading Seattle here,
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: But I don't think I agree with that sentiment. Seattle
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: minus one fifty five here, eighty five percent of tickets,
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: seventy four percent of the cash public is on Seattle.
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: The money is fading Seattle. But I think I would
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: lean Seattle here. I think that might be the best
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: approach here. I think maybe this Hancock stuff is real
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: and not at least it's at least real enough that
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: I think he can do well against an offense that
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: hasn't done that well against him. I think he's more
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: trustworthy than again. I think he's more likely to get
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: deeper into this game. Seattle's bullpen is the better bullpen. Yeah,
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think Seattle is the right side in
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: that game. But the money is completely disagreeing with it.
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: So doing that information what you want? Josh, what's up? Man? No?
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: Like some we're on the screen like a graphic. Uh,
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: I haven't thought about that. No, I don't know. I
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: mean it seems I don't know. I guess I could
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: figure something out with I don't know how I would
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: do that in stream er. I don't know how you
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: can add like an additional graphic here because I'm screen sharing.
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know how I would like add another Yeah,
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it could be part of there
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: might be like part of the layout settings. You might
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: be I have no idea. I don't know. But but
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: if I do that, people won't watch right right, Like
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: don't don't I want people to try to. I want
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: people to watch, to try to find where my plays
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: are during the show, trying to get people to watch
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: this whole show. Man. I also don't know if I
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: don't really want to, like, I don't know, like listing
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: like the leans as well. I don't know. I don't
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: want like, you know, what I'm doing here, Like I
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: give out, like what my actual plays are, and then
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: I give out what my opinions are on the rest
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: of the games. Yeah, those are leans, but you gotta
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: kind of take some of those of the grain of salt.
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess they do well more often than
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: they don't. But still, I don't know, man, I don't
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: want to like mislead people with a graphic like that, Like,
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: I don't know. It seems like it might add to confusion.
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: I don't think I want to do that. All right,
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be right back and then I'm gonna go
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: to NHL. Here. We have playoffs to talk about here.
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: One of these series hasn't started yet, which is really bizarre,
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: which is why it's first in the rotation order. Anaheim Edmonton.
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on with that, but we
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: will have one hockey play here, I'm gonna talk about
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: NBA and I'm gonna skip the NBA board today. I'll
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: be right back, all right, hockey and let's go. We'll
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: go chronologically here. We have two games on ESPN. Two
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: games on ESPN two, Philadelphia at Pittsburgh as the first
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: game up. Philadelphia won the first game in a close game,
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: three to two. I kind of expect this to be
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: another battle here. Philadelphia has been pretty decent on the road,
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: by the way, and Pittsburgh has been alright at home
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: as well. Philadelphia's road record is actually a little bit
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: better than Pittsburgh's home record, believe it or not, so
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: something to take into account here. If you look at
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: what happened in this game, Philadelphia won with a late goal. Here,
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia was winning the game three to one. Excuse Philadelphia
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: was winning three to one, never mind the late goal
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: came from. It was a late goal to push it
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: to three to one. But Pittsburgh scored the last goal
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: to cut it to three to two. But if you
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: look at the stats, you know Pittsburgh did win a
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: decent majority of the faceaus fifty nine percent, had fewer shots.
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh wasn't getting a lot of shots on goal in
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: that game. It was a close game for the most
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: part statistically, so not really a misleading result. I will
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: lean to Pittsburgh in this game though, Pittsburgh, when you
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: get a home team that loses game one, you usually
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: get a massive effort from them in game two. So
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: like because you cannot go down two and then have
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: to go on the road, you know what I mean?
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: Even though this is an interstate series here or intra state,
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know, whatever the word is. Just it's a
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: you know, these teams don't have to travel far in
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: this series. Let's put it that way. Fifty six percent
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: of tickets, ninety four percent of the casual on Pittsburgh.
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: They are at minus one forty eight right now. I
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: would agree with the Pittsburgh side. Again, a team that
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: falls down one at home usually get a big effort
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: out of them in the next game, especially as a favorite.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: But this one is not going to be on my card.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: Although this is my second strongest hockey lean of the day,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: So I agree with Brad on these games. Here. It
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: was Brad right, I'm losing track here, Oh shit, but
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: you watch when you're driving to work, Oh shit, I
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: mean I try to remind people. At the end of
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: the show, I give out my plays one more time
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: at the end. I don't even remember what my leans are, man,
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: I mean I could. I don't know. I could try
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: to sort of recap that at the end. I don't know.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: I am gonna tell you that Pittsburgh is my second
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: strongest hockey opinion, though I will tell you that for baseball.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I'll figure I'll try to recap it
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: at the end of the show. Maybe Ottawa at Carolina here,
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: Carolina did win the first game two to nothing. Dive
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: to the box score, see was there anything misleading about it?
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, Ottawa did win the face off,
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: so Carolina was massively physical in the game. Fifty seven
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: hits is like unheard of. Carolina have more shots as well. Carolina,
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: for the most part, they were the better team in
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: the game. I think they are the better team. I
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: don't really have much of an opinion on this game. Really.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: I think Carolina is gonna wind up winning the series.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: Of course, they have a really good home record. Auto
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: has been okay on the road, but Carolina pretty dominant
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: at home. Don't really think Carolina is gonna lose. They're
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: up to minus one forty seven. You could make. You know,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: there are arguments for zigzags here, but I don't think
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: the zigzag is a thing when you know, like when
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: the outcome in the first game was basically expected, like
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: it was pretty much expected Carolina was gonna win that game.
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: It wasn't an outlier or anything like that. Maybe Ottawa
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: will try to get up for this, show up for
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: this game, and they fall down O two, they you know,
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: at least get to fall back on. Yes, we have
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: some home games where we can get some wins here,
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: but fifty six percent of tickets on Ottawa, seventy six
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: percent of cash on Carolina, So the money is indicating
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: on Carolina here. I don't really disagree with it. In fact,
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: I actually like all the home teams in hockey today,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: but I think Pittsburgh is a stronger opinion. And I
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: think the strongest opinion is what I'm actually gonna recommend
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: as a bet in the Minnesota Dallas game later at
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: night here, so we have we have an early game
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: in a late game today. This is the other best
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: bet we're gonna go with Dallas money line minus one
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: thirty here. This is another one of the spots where
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: the home team lost the first game and you cannot
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: afford to lose two games at home, man and then
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: have to go on the road, Like basically the series
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: is on the line, so you know you're gonna get
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: an effort out of that home team. They lost six
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: to one. And when you see an outlier like that
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: and the underdog, the road underdog wins six to one,
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: that is a situation where you might want to fade
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: them in the next game because Minnesota might be pretty
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: high on themselves after that win. Maybe over maybe they
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: might overlook Dallas a little bit. Here. Dallas is gonna
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: have the adjustments to make. But also when you dive
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: into this box score and whatever, this game was not
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: lopsided statistically. Dallas won the face offs very slightly, the
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: shots were very even. Minnesota was a bit more physical.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: But this game, you look at this stat recap here,
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: there's no way that would indicate to you that this
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: was a six to one finish. It was a bad
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: game for Dallas, and I think, you know, like Ott
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: in Jersey, he's much much better than this. You look
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: at what happened in this game, A power play goal
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: happened early on for Minnesota, and that kind of set
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: the tone. They had another power play goal and an
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: empty net goal late, so this game wasn't exactly what
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: it appeared to be. And they had kind of one
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: of those berths in the second period where sometimes when
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: a team scores, they had like this run where they
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: score a few times really quickly. That does happen in
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: high you gotta avoid I don't know what they call
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: it in hockey, the burst, the goal burst. You gotta
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: avoid that, I guess. But other than that yet, I mean,
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: the game was not really what it appeared. Dallas is
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: gonna show up, I think, with a lot of intensity
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: in this one. Dallas has a lot of experience here, man.
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: I mean they've been to the conference finals, I think
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: multiple years in a row. If I'm not mistaken here,
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: they know what they're doing. They've been in this type
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: of position before. We're gonna go with Dallas there at
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: minus one thirty three. I know they were like minus
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: one twenty something in the first game. So the odds
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: makers are aware of this zigzag phenomenon. But we're still
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: getting a pretty reasonable price here. I see it at
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: minus one thirty out there. I think that is fine.
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: It's not that much different from minus one twenty whatever,
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: eighty four percent of tickets, ninety four percent of the
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: cash on Dallas. We're going with Dallas in this one.
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: That is my one hockey play there. Oh yeah. And
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: then you know, I usually just kind of call attention
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: to the home road records here. Minnesota has been decent
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: on the road. Dallas has been a bit better at
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: home though than Minnesota's road record, which is I mean,
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: it's expected. It's home advantage, right, They're not one of
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: those teams where the home advantage is you know nothing
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: or whatever. Anaheim at Edmonton. This is a series, This
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: series hasn't started yet. This series might be very home centric.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: These teams, you know, the location wise, they're far away
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: from each other. The travel between the games might give
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: you know, like when we get to game three, like
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: looking to play and if Anaheim goes O two in
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: the first two games and then the teams have to
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: travel to Anaheim. Anaheim is a really good home team.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: Anaheim might be a play for me in that game.
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: In Game three. We'll see what happens. But I think
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be a very home oriented series. I
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: think Edmonton does have a decent advantage here being at home.
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: Edmonton's got experience because they've been in the finals last
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: two years, so they know what they're doing here. Have
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: no idea of dry citles Vacker and not he for Edmonton
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: because he has been hurt. Edmonton is a decent sized
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: favorite here. They're pretty good at home, not as good
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: as you would expect. But Anaheim is just not good
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: on the road, dude. Anaheim has some really big home
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: road disparities here and they're below five hundred on the road,
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: even not including overtimes. Not great, much much better at home.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if I love that for Anaheim.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: Anaheim hasn't been to the playoffs for a bit. Now.
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: Let me see, Anaheim did have to win their last
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: game to really make sure they were getting into the playoffs.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: I think they've beat Nashville, which was a pretty decent win.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: Edmonton won their last game against Vancouver, but that was obviously,
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: like whatever. Vancouver's the worst team in hockey. But Edmonton's
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: not having to travel because that game wasn't home. Maybe
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an extra edge here. Of course,
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: first game of the series teams could start out a
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: little bit slow because these teams haven't played for a while.
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I think it's Edmonton's game to lose. In
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: my opinion, they're up for minus one to fifty to
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: minus one sixty three here, seventy eight percent of tickets,
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: ninety three percent of the cash in Edmonton. I think
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: Edmonton wins the game. Uh, they're a bit highly priced.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: Maybe maybe it's justified. You know, you could make your
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: own like minus one puck line here and maybe go.
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: You know, I don't love dealing with like overs in
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: these first games of series though, because like the offenses
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: could start slowing. Whatever. The total is high though, it's
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: at six and a half, and that's pretty much because Edmonton.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: They score a lot and they don't play very good defense,
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: so you know, long term, I don't love Edmonton's prospects
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: for that reason, but in a game like this, they
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: will win. This says Dry. Settle is expected to come
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: back during the series. We still have no idea when.
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it's that big of a deal
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: really anyway, even though he's one of their best players.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: I mean again, it's hockey, like your best players are
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: only out there for what like about half the game
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: maybe so whatever, But yeah, I lean to Edmonton in
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: the game. I don't have that strong an opinion on it,
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: but I think Edmonton more advantages for them. I guess
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: you could lean more towards a pock line or maybe
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: go Edmonton over their team total or something like that.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: But again, gets a little bit iffy if you think
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: the offenses are gonna start slow, you need hot offense
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: for most of the time there, all right, And then
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: we have NBA. Every game is on NBC and Peacock
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: for the NBA here, I don't have much going on
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: with these games here, man. The home favorites in these
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: three games that are being played today all won and
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: covered their first games, so it was not unexpected. I
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: thought Cleveland would win and cover, even though they lost
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: all three games to Toronto outright this season. They won
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: and covered like I thought. I think the game went
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: slightly over as well. The totals in these games, by
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: the way, in the NBA games are all very close
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: to where they were in game one. Like usually you
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: see game two be a little bit higher scoring because
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: now the offenses are in gear. There's a quick turnaround time.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: The defenses might not be as great in the second game,
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: so overs tend to make more sense in these games.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: Like maybe when you get to like a game, you know,
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: six or something, that over might make even more sense.
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: Seven the well, it depends what the series is like.
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: Seven usually want to go under, though, even though the
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: defenses might be ti or usually get intense focus out
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: of them. And usually there's some rest leading you to that.
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: But you go game anyway at least, but anyway because
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: the lot well, a lot of times the teams have
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: to go back, like to a different venue or whatever,
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: so this extra time off. But maybe that won't be
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: the case with the way the NBA structures it now. Anyway,
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: Cleveland's the better team here, man, I mean you could
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: make the argument. I mean, it looks like the underdogs
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: are getting the money in all three games here, Like
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: you can make the same argument in all three right
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: that you know, maybe the team the favorite that won
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: in the first game one easily enough that maybe they
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: won't be as focused. Here Calves are at minus eight
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: and a half. They're basically laying the same price they
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: were in the first game. Seventy percent of tickets, only
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: sixty three percent of the cash on the So the
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: money is indicating on the raptors in this one total
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: is it two twenty three, which I'm pretty sure that's
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: what it was in the first game. But the money's
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: indicating on the under in this game, believe it or not.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I would agree with an under there.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: I don't have a good gauge on the total. I mean,
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: I'm not really a totals guy. Maybe just to zigzag
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: the fact that the first game went over, but it
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: wasn't some like insanely high scoring game or anything. I'll
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: probably I'll probably agree with with Toronto here plus the
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: points slightly, but I don't love it. I don't really
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: have much of a reason to do that, because again,
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: the result in the first game was just as expected.
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: Pretty much Cleveland is the better team and they won
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: and covered by a little bit. So I don't think
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: there's really anything to see here. Really, the same thing
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: goes for Atlanta and the Knicks. Here, Atlanta could get
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: hot from three and steal some games in the series.
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: Like you know, I think this series might wind up
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: being somewhat close. The first game wasn't a blowout, but
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: the Knicks won and covered. I don't think the game
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: was really that close. Yeah, I think once the Knicks
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: kind of built that lead, they just kind of ran
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: away with it. Hawks did kind of make it a
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: little bit close at the end, it was too little,
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: too late. They got within eight late, didn't really matter.
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: But the money is coming in towards the Hawks here.
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: The Knicks are basically laying the same price as they
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: were on the first game at five and a half
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: seventy one percent of tickets, only sixty eight percent of
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Knicks. Money is indicating on the Hawks,
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: And again I don't have a reason to disagree with it.
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: I don't have a strong opinion at all. But again,
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: the you know, the losing team, yeah, may show up
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: with a little bit more intensity, and the team that
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: won un covered might not take the opponent as totally
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: as seriously, and you know, like Raptors Hawks, maybe they'll
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: make some adjustments coming into these games, whereas the teams
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: that won, maybe they don't have any adjustments to make,
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: you know. So there are some reasons for leaning that way,
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: but it's not strong for me at all. And the
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: money's coming in on the under in this game for
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: what that's where that a low total of two seventeen
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: the game. The first game I think had a total
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: right around that as well, and I believe the game
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: went under by like two points or one and a half.
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: No strong opinion on the under either. I mean, the
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: Hawks want this game to be an over though, so
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: it's interesting that the Hawks are getting the money, but
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: the under is getting money as well. I think the
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: Hawks kind of need this game to be higher scoring
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: and need to be hitting threes to do anything here,
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: So we'll see. But the Knicks do allow threes, so
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: maybe the Hawks will be able to get some games
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: in the series to Towls and Nuggets seem to have
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: the strongest market indicators here, and the Nuggets are a
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: seven point favorite, you know, that has gone up to
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: that key number from six and a half. I think
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: there were six and a half in the first game,
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: so it has hit that key number a little bit
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: here where that's when teams stop intentionally fouling. Usually that
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: three possession threshold fifty percent tickets on the Nuggets seventy
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on the tules. Definitely a
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: high total of two thirty two. It was around the
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: same in the first game, I believe it went under.
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: I'm not. I don't remember. Let me see, did it
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: go under? Yeah, it definitely went under in that first game,
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: but the game was actually close. So this is the
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: one game that might be a little bit different from
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: the other games, even though the money is actually strongly
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: indicating on the t Wolves seventy five percent of the
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: cash on the t Wolves, fifty one percent of the
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: cash on the Nuggets. Like I said, I thought the
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: t Wolves might cover in the first game, and they
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: had chances to cover that. The game was not out
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: of reach for the t Wolves, and the Tea Wolves
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: definitely know how to play against Denver in Denver whatever. Yes,
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be their second game in a row in elevation,
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: which is not that easy. But the t Wolves have
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: done this before. You know, they've played Denver really tough
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: before and beaten Denver in a playoff series before as well.
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure recently. This Minnesota team this year doesn't
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: look to be quite as good, though, but Denver, there's
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: always the chance of their depfense is not up to
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: par though. I mean, they were pretty good in Game one,
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: but this Denver defense does have some issues, sure, crazy experience,
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: so is Minnesota. The thing is Denver might be the
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: least likely of these three home favorites to overlook their
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: opponent though, because Denver these teams just know each other.
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: Denver knows that Minnesota has the ability to beat them.
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: Game one was closer than these other two games were,
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: even though Minnesota wound up not covering. Denver might not
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: overlook Minnesota like it might be the least likely that
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: that happens. So you know the money saying Minnesota. I
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: don't really disagree with the Minnesota side here, but I
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: think I have more reservations about that one than the
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: other ones. Of course, that means Minnesota is gonna win
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: the game out right, probably right, I don't know, man,
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: I mean there's star power on both sides here. Denver
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: still unclear how good or not good their defenses with
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon back in the line up here. You know me,
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: you saw my bracket. I do have Denver getting to
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: the conference finals here, but we'll see. It kind of
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: remains to be seen. This is I think the most
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: interesting of the three games though. This series I think
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: is really interesting because this Minnesota team, when they're playing
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: at their best. They could definitely beat most of these
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: other teams in this conference here except for Okay, well
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: maybe even Okay. See, I don't know. Yeah, those are
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: my thoughts on. I think Minnesota is the better defense
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: getting points though, so there is that, even though the
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: defense has had some issues at times. I think they're
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: better than Denver's defense still by a bit. So those
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: are my thoughts on, man, I don't really have a
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: strong opinion on those. I think I will have a
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: play in the NBA tomorrow, though actually I might. I might.
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: I might have a play in the NBA tomorrow. I
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: think I will absolutely have a play on Wednesday in
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: the NBA. You know, I'm trying to be selective, as
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: you know. That's what I try to do, all right.
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: To recap today, the actual players are the Red Sox
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: money line in the Monday Marathon Monday game, it's coming
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: up in about an hour. Dallas Stars at Night is
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: my other play on the money line. Two small home
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: money line favorites here, and that's what we're going with here.
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: That's the whole thing today. As far as Major League Baseball,
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man. If I'm doing a recap here
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: and I have any other strong opinions here. I don't know, man, Like,
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: what was my strongest opinion besides that one that I
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: give out as a play. Honestly, I think it's it's
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: hard to say it really is, you know, first five
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: inning under in that Baltimore Kansas City game, definitely I
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: found to be a bit enticing. So maybe that one.
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man. This is why I don't love
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: to give up these like leans, because I think there
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: is like a drop off there. Sometimes sometimes they're stronger
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: than other times, you know, I just, yeah, I don't
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: really love it. And then NHL, like I said, my
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: next strongest lean would be Pittsburgh. And then I don't
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: really have anything in the NBA, dude, I don't even
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: want to give out an opinion really. In the NBA,
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: I just don't have. The strongest market read is the
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: Tea Wolves, but I think that's the weak of the
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: three in my opinion. Yeah, I don't love it. I
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: don't love any of the games. I think maybe the
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: Hawks might be the most likely underdog to actually steal
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: a game on that slate today, and that's just because
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: the three point variants allows for more variants there. But
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: they could just get blown out to if they're not
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: hitting them. So, yeah, that's gonna do it. Man. I
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: don't love it, but yeah, you're betting on the Nuggets
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: because it's four twenty. I'm pretty sure their nuggets name
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: means something else. I think it's a different kind of
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: it's chicken nuggets. No, it is gold Nuggets with the
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: Denver Nuggets. Yeah, I would. I would not bet on
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: the Nuggets. I would definitely not do that, all right. Yeah,
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: I mean that's fading a significant market. Read there. That's
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: gonna do it for me. You got my plays, learned
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: a tone on Twitter. I appreciate it. Everybody thinks for
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: hanging out. You can subscribe to me on Twitter. That
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: helps me out, learn a tode on Instagram. What else
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: a is I gonna say? Like, subscribe to the channel here,
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: Let's get this thing boosted, let's get it monetized, let's
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: go Audio helps me out as well. Listening over there, Apple, Spotify, whatever,
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: although I know you want the visuals as well, but yeah,
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: you can check that out over there, spreaker listening on
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: that helps me out as well. Give me good reviews
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: over there. Covered in you because my yuke channel on YouTube,
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: so you can check that out as well. Patreon dot com.
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: Slash learned to toe for some bonus stuff that I've
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: not kept up with at all, which I feel like
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: I say every day. Gotta get better at that. Yeah,
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: I know. And Loser Cast will be back tomorrow. Gotta
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: determine who I want to be my loser tomorrow. That's
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. Oh and tonight, I believe I'm going
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: to be We're gonna start the New York Giants podcast
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: that I'm on. Even though I'm a Boston guy, I'm
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: not like a massive Patriots van or anything. I rooted
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: for the Giants because I was a Patriot hater for
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: a while, so I rooted for the Giants against them
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: in both Super Bowls. I would be doing a Giants
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: podcast with Ben Weir, Ben the Emo, and Kap, who
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: is a big Giants fan. We may have Adam Nutter
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: show up on the show at various points, although he
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: seems to never be able to do shows. He is
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: a Giant fan as well. It's gonna be weird. The
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: show is called the g Spot. I don't know where
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be. I'm assuming it's gonna be on YouTube.
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: But I think we're gonna do a show tonight to
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: like pregame the draft basically and talk about the draft.
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: And I don't know much about the draft. I really don't,
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: so we're gonna just shoot the shit about it. So
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: I think that's gonna start tonight, I believe, So you
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: can be on the lookout for that. That's gonna do it.
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: I appreciate it. Peace,