Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Big Bank’s Most Frightening Warning to Investors + Stock Market News 10 March 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Big Bank’s Most Frightening Warning to Investors + Stock Market News 10 March 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Well, actually early in the morning, market live stream because I didn't realize there was a daylight saving madness going on.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: They should really abolish that one.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: But what I want to walk you through here are seven insanely valuable facts and data points to help you understand the market better, so you can make better decisions, so you can weather this dip with a great big smile and see it as a wonderful opportunity, because it is a wonderful opportunity if you know what you're doing, so I'm going to share my screen with you here.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: There we go, um, this is what we're going to walk through here.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: What are, what are wall street banks really warning about?
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: What's goldman sachs one of the leading remiss banks in the telling its clients?
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: What is it that Trump just said that makes the market crash much, much worse?
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: By 30% down is the new normal, and it may get worse.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: But understanding why it will allow you to position yourself in a way that will improve your outcome.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: And then I'll give you Wall Street's literally Goldman Sachs's 10 reasons to be worried, which is very important to understand, always important to understand the bear case, so you can know how to position and look for opportunities.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: And then I want to give you the one reason that I'm actually really, really bullish, plus some bonus data that I wasn't going to share with you.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: But I think we've got a pretty smart gang here who tunes in most days life, so I think you can handle the data and that will give you insight that very, very, very few people have.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: So that's the.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: That's the intention here.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Does that sound good?
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: That sounds good?
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Just write good in the chat, and I know that you're alive and kicking and and and keen to improve everything that you're doing here, even though we're a little, a little late here this morning.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Mike, my friend, you need the hedging document.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: If you do, just drop me an email and I'll ping that over to you very gladly.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: I send it out to everybody who was on the last masterclass that we did live, which, of course, good point, my friend, if you guys want to also learn what Mike, for example, has learned and so many thousands of you um, I think 15 000 of you or something have watched the master class so far and actually learn what stocks do we buy and when?
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: And I'll give you my, my tool for that in a moment as well, but there's a link down below felix, friends at oxlash, get free and it literally teaches you everything that I've learned over the last 13 years in the market.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: How do we spot the breakouts?
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: What are the three key rules that every most successful trader and investor out there ever in the history of the market uses and understands?
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Yet 99 of us don't.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: So it's completely free of charge.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: It's 15 minutes, phoenixpensorg, get free and you are super welcome to um.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Access to that, brent, my friend.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Goat Academy community.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, I'm very excited to have you on board, my friend, and ask as many questions as you got coming up there.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: That's what is pretty important at the beginning.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Don't get quiet on us.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Make sure you ask questions, take advantage of the insanely great mentors that we all have and share.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: So welcome there, brent.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Now this is from Goldman Sachs.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Here you know the bankers with a warm, fuzzy heart, the ones who really care about you.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: They said this the unwind, which is basically people selling, got materially worse.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: Thursday through Friday, though, pain was felt the most anecdotally on Goldman's desk, so there was a lot of pain.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: Basically, people are selling not because they want to, but because they're hitting their stops.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: They're fearful, they're getting knocked out of positions that they don't want to be in anymore.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of you know, goldman's warning there.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: And then this here is from Al Presidente.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: This is Trump, and he put out this very, very famous sentence.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: He said there could be a little disruption.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Let me show you what a little disruption looks like.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: This is like the heat map right now.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Live, I mean, look at that sea of red Tesla down 7%, nvidia 3, apple down 4, google down 4, meta down 3.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: This is a proper, proper morning sell-off.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: I mean the sort of thing we haven't seen in a very long time, probably not for about a year or so.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: So this is probably why this happened.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: He said you can't really watch the stock market and therefore we're getting into a territory where we are much like about 14 months ago.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: We're worried about one thing.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: By we, I mean the market.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: We're worried about the big R, the big recession.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Is Trump's cutting of government jobs and government expenditure going to drive us into a recession because the Fed is too slow to cut interest rates?
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: That's the big question here.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Right, and we'll come back to that in just a moment here.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Fox Gaming my friend, appreciate you putting out that link there for everybody who wants to learn in moments like these.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: These are the moments where you really want to learn, right?
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: This is what's happening to most stocks right now.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: This is the Russell 3000, so it's like most kind of mid-cap stocks, and look how much down it is.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: It's down 30% from highs pretty much across the board.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: Right, okay, healthcare is a bit worse, energy is a bit worse and financials are slightly better, but still they're down like 20%, and after this morning, everything is down more than 20%.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: This is a pretty significant sell off and I think we need to acknowledge that that if your positions are down 30%, you're doing're.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: You're doing all right.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Right, you're just doing average.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Now can we improve on that?
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Always, risk management is where we make our money.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: So, again, I put a ton of risk management lessons into that feed expense log slash get free, and I'm actually thinking about adding some some extra lessons in there like a bonus.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: For how do you really protect yourself in these times?
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: How do you ensure your portfolio so you don't bleed from a crash but you actually make money from a crash?
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: If you want to get a summary of that, write crash in the chat here and I will know how many of you want it and then I will make it and we can put that out maybe tomorrow.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Brent says risk management saved me.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: That's exactly what saves us in moments like these and it may get worse and you probably want to hear that and like after this, I promise you there's some positive news and there's some real hard indicators that give us some path out of this.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: We need to understand here and I'm seeing a lot of crashes here A lot of you guys are worried about the crash, though, funnily enough, slightly more of you are still worried about missing out on the big breakout.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of crash stuff here going on brilliant and honestly, that's precisely what I always say to my my new students is um, you'd have the most success if you focus on risk management.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: So you know, crash management rather than like I want to make a billion dollars by friday.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: So everybody who's coming to us with that mindset of like I want to to protect my money yes, I want to grow it and I want to accelerate the growth, but I actually want to protect that the bottom line here is that those people actually do best.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: So all of you guys who've written crash here in that, that's a very good mindset.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: You got that because you're focused on the right thing.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: You're focused on the downside protection, and that's something that we need to do all the time, even in good markets, when most people forget about it.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Now, what's happening here the next couple of weeks?
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Well, the second half or most of march we zoom in here a little bit is typically historically not brilliant, right, and it picks up again from from april onwards here, and therefore we have to like be realistic.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: The market moves in zigs and zags and march is usually not a particularly great month for all sorts of reasons.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Um, historically, this is the last 20 years, but after march comes april and may, which are typically much, much better months.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: So we need to ride out this wave a little bit, but we need to make sure that we still have some money left at the end of that wave so we can go back out and we can invest and we can buy the dip and we can buy the good quality stocks.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: That's really where we make money, right.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: What if you want a billion dollars?
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Really badly, that's also a good thing, my friend.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: I like ambition, I like motivation.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: It's just a question of priority, and the priority always, and that's why I put this out the three rules to better trading, but also better investing, because it's actually the same thing.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Spot the breakouts, learn the rules, which is why I put that link down below to the masterclass at felixfrenzorg.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: So let's run through Goldman's list of pain and then we'll move on to the positive side of life as well, because there is a silver lining here.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Jeannie Tsang, there, super kind of you, appreciate you sharing that, that this is helping for you, and if this is helpful for anybody like, again, put it in the chat, just put a one in the chat.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: If this is helpful for you to understand the market better and it makes you feel more confident and comfortable with your decisions, then that's amazing, because that's the whole point here.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Now Goldman Sachs, one of the leading investment banks in the world, if not the leading, certainly.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: If you ask somebody who works at Goldman, they say there is only us and nobody else.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's how cocky those guys are.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: And they're saying okay, there's 10 reasons why the market's tanking.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: The first one is growth concerns.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: So the manufacturing data here.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Thanks for all the ones there, guys.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: Big motor is getting no value out of this, my friend.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: What's the reason there for that Weak confidence reading payroll.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Second is just tariff fatigue because it's been trumped.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: It's like, oh, there'll be tariffs.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Second, it's just tariff fatigue Because it's with Trump.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: It's like, oh, there'll be tariffs.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: No, no tariffs.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Oh, the tariffs are back.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: Tariffs are gone, tariffs are back.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: It's confusing.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: It's probably strategy to control the media or something.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: I don't really know what the point there is.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: Or maybe the strategy is simply just to tank the market because that's going to make it easier for the Fed to cut interest rates, which I think is what they really want.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: There, I think, motor has gone up to 666.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Okay, now that's a little weird looking, but anyway.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: And then, yeah, there's a lot of stuff that's weird.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: The German and European yields are breaking out.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: They're spending $900 billion allegedly that they don't have, on defense and infrastructure, and that's a surprising thing from the Zee Germans.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: The technicals are pretty weak.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: We're looking at the 200-day moving average line and let me show you that right now, inside Trade Vision here and I'm working on a better version of Trade Vision, which we now have new summaries which I think are super, super cool and it's basically saying look, the S&P marked its worst week in six months.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Last week it dropped 3.4%, driven by tariff uncertainty and tech sector sell-off, and then Trump policy.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Inflation data on the 11th is going to influence it a lot.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: The Fed's comments suggest caution on rate policy.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: People are bearish.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: And then it even gives you like key drivers, like the, the price range.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: We're looking at the key dates coming up and stuff, and we're going to put all that out into trade vision, hopefully in the next I want to say days.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: I don't want to promise a time frame, but it's coming pretty soon and um, we're going to give that to you guys for free as part of trade vision.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: Everybody's already signed up because I think it's tremendously helpful to have the right data points and we'll do that for every single stock, so you see exactly what's going on with your stock without having to trawl through all the news, and we'll literally go through social media and everything our little algorithm there, and that's going to be super, super useful.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: So if you want to get yourself a trial for that, a free trial for that, we're also giving you at the moment the Black Friday sale offer.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: That's how good that sale is.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Because I know it's a tough time for a lot of people, right, portfolios are hurting, it doesn't feel good, you don't want to spend money.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: I totally get that.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: So we want to give you good data, good information, good indicators for like, super, super, super low cost prices, basically here.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: So what does the S&P look like?
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: Well, not brilliant, right?
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Really, really not brilliant.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: The 200-day moving average line we're now below that.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: That's pretty bad.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: But and here's a silver lining if you are a long-term investor so not the guy who wants to get rich by Friday um, this was the last time in October 2023, when we were below the 200-day moving average line.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: I was at $414.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: So we're up like 50% since then, right, and there were a couple of opportunities here in 2023.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: 2022 was a terrible year for the market, but just zoom out right, like in hindsight, was that not a lovely opportunity to buy the fricking dip?
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, of course it was right.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: So, if you have a long-term horizon, buying the S&P, buying the Nasdaq below the 200-day moving average line, is usually a pretty good place to buy it.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Now, with individual stocks, you don't have the same luxury, because they can, in theory, go to zero right, the index won't go to zero and therefore it's a much, much safer place to put your money in times like these if you have a long term horizon, right.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: Here's the nasdaq, also significantly below the 200-day moving average line there.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Um, and again, it's mostly tech sentiment.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Um, nvidia could lift it up if inflation data comes down.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: Tariff fallout is obviously still the key thing here.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: We consumer confidence.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: We lost 326 million in outflows just on the last trading day here, 6% down year to date so far.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: So yeah, it's a little concerning and volume is pretty significant.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: On the sell-off here, right.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: But again, zoom out.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: Last time we were below that for just one day was in August.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: That was a pretty good time to buy at 420.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: And the last time before that was in 2023, when the market really tanked quite a lot.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: But again, in hindsight, that was a good time to buy stocks, right.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: So just bear that in mind as we run through the rest of the grim reapers list from Wall Street.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: So say you know, technicals are weak.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: We just looked at the other 200-day moving average line the CTAs, the algo funds.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: They've sold a lot, but that isn't the full story and I want to give you the full story in just a couple of minutes, because I have actually a chart on that that kind of blows this negativity out of the water.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: So this point here, the systematic supply thing, I would kind of take that away.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: But yes, last week the computer funds sold a lot right, and that's really, really important.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: There's not a lot of liquidity there isn't.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: There's just not a lot of like people trading and buying stuff.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: So that means if no one's buying stuff it's easier to tank the market.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: It's just like you know you sell something.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: There are fewer buyers.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: It's just like you know you sell something, the fewer buyers.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: So therefore you tank the market.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: The consumer, yeah, not some.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: Concerning data, we've come out of some of the earnings there and then here, as I said to you before, I showed you that chart on seasonality.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: We typically don't do very well in these early March weeks, right, so the first two weeks of March are typically pretty terrible.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: That might turn around mid-March, towards end March at least.